WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Alan Blinder

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea after a job, stay, an extraordinary week,

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<v Speaker 2>an extraordinary twelve months for this great bullmarkt That's my

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<v Speaker 2>theme into the end of the year. We're not going

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<v Speaker 2>to overweight equity strategists, but we're going to lean forward

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<v Speaker 2>and listen a little more carefully to equity strategists into

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<v Speaker 2>the end of the year. So many of them were

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<v Speaker 2>behind this bullmarket trend, so many of them are catching up. Yes,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll emphasize people that nailed it at Yardanni getting a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of accolade for that, and others Brian Belski, Fimo

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<v Speaker 2>Capital Markets and many many others. But we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>particularly listen to those that maybe got it wrong or

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<v Speaker 2>off the mark and they're recalibrating. This is an absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>cardinal rule of the business. Really, really really listen and

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<v Speaker 2>study people that got it wrong with a question. The

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<v Speaker 2>seismic shift and strategy this week was David Rosenberg of

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<v Speaker 2>Rosenberg Research in Toronto, who flat out came out in

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<v Speaker 2>the last twenty four hours and said, I need to recalibrate,

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<v Speaker 2>I need to readjust this is a bull market. What

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<v Speaker 2>did I get wrong about growth? Really pay attention to

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<v Speaker 2>David Rosenberg in the coming weeks as he recalibrates to

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<v Speaker 2>this solid American economy and to equities higher. We finished

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<v Speaker 2>the week strong, too many voices to even begin to

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<v Speaker 2>talk about. On Jobs Day? Where do you go, Claudia

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<v Speaker 2>sam New Centries Advisors, Doctor somem on recession or lack

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<v Speaker 2>thereof forward?

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<v Speaker 3>I think if you ask people are we in a recession?

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<v Speaker 3>Are you in a recession? They tie that.

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<v Speaker 4>Word up with a lot of negative feelings, a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of struggle and hardship. They don't tie it up to

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<v Speaker 4>the National Blower of Economic Research's definition of a broad

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<v Speaker 4>based contraction economic activity. So when I see those services

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<v Speaker 4>of people saying we're in a recession, I understand that

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<v Speaker 4>what they're telling us is they're facing some hard times

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<v Speaker 4>where they have family and friends who are and that

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<v Speaker 4>the sad reality is that's with us always.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, if you look at even say a group

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<v Speaker 5>like Black Americans, is not the case at the moment,

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<v Speaker 5>but over long stretches of history, what their unemployment rate

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<v Speaker 5>outside of recessions looks like the recessionary unemployment rate, right, So,

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, we just have pockets of hardship in the

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<v Speaker 5>country and that hasn't changed from this, but it is

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<v Speaker 5>a reminder we've got work.

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<v Speaker 3>To do, and frankly, for those pockets of hardship, the

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<v Speaker 3>best thing that we have to bring is a strong

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<v Speaker 3>labor market where it's really working, especially at the bottom,

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<v Speaker 3>and we saw some of that a few years ago,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's part of what is slipping away.

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<v Speaker 2>Important insight from Claudia sym and this goes back ages

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<v Speaker 2>and ages of work. Is the best solution for people

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<v Speaker 2>struggling is just a solid sense of economic growth. I

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<v Speaker 2>know that doesn't get the job done, but at the

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<v Speaker 2>same time, there we are as well. It was wonderful

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<v Speaker 2>to speak to Alan Blinder, the former vice chairman of

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<v Speaker 2>the Federserve System, iconic at Princeton University, clearly associated with

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<v Speaker 2>Democratic politics. Late in our conversation I asked Professor Blinder

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<v Speaker 2>about that ownership the Democratic Party politics and Democratic Party

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<v Speaker 2>economics had on working class America. They have shifted right.

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<v Speaker 6>It's ironic to me that the Democrats against the Republicans

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<v Speaker 6>go back generations. There's never been a question of which

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<v Speaker 6>was the party that cared more about ordinary working people,

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<v Speaker 6>never until now, and now there is and the Republicans,

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<v Speaker 6>in particular Donald Trump have captured a lot of that

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<v Speaker 6>support and vote. I think that those people are going

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<v Speaker 6>to see what the second Trump administration collection of billionaires

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<v Speaker 6>actually does with the policy leavers and not be too happy,

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<v Speaker 6>certainly not believe that it was for them.

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<v Speaker 2>Terrific response to our conversation with Professor Blinder, those of

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<v Speaker 2>a different presuasion, persuasion I should say, suggesting maybe it

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<v Speaker 2>was a blinder in the politics of the past, and

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<v Speaker 2>of course he had a lot of support out there

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<v Speaker 2>as well for where the two parties head into twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty six. In two thousand and twenty eight, on your

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<v Speaker 2>commute across America, thank you for listening on YouTube. All

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<v Speaker 2>single best idea

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<v Speaker 6>Seven