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Speaker 1: You don't think we're doing a great job? Was it
Speaker 1: a pretty good job? I mean it's probably because you
Speaker 1: have some scruff, you know, That's what it is. That's
Speaker 1: why you're doing a great job. It's like the nicest
Speaker 1: you've been to me in months. Yes, because the knock coincidental.
Speaker 1: Once that goes, I mean, I'm gonna find something to
Speaker 1: bash you about. You very dipper today. Greg. You have
Speaker 1: a little roll up action going on with your sweater.
Speaker 1: Nice button down. I know, like this this is one
Speaker 1: of my favorite shirts. Actually, that's my favorite sweater wear
Speaker 1: that like a T shirt under here and that a lot.
Speaker 1: They fit very well. I would like to buy more,
Speaker 1: but they're just like really expense its republic sale republic
Speaker 1: like the polar stuff. We're pretty similar shirts. Yea, we
Speaker 1: look good. One might say we both look like picnic tables.
Speaker 1: I always is it weird? I have a shirt like
Speaker 1: this and a shirt very similar to this. I always
Speaker 1: say it looks like Eastern when I wear them. Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: I can see this, see that, especially this too. It's
Speaker 1: like per bowl. It's like, yeah, a pastel. That's the
Speaker 1: term that they use, like these bright springy type colors.
Speaker 1: Speaking of spring, a snow on the ground, Greg, how
Speaker 1: about that? Oh god, the boots are packed. Had to
Speaker 1: be back to us, had to be back the male
Speaker 1: lugs the mugs wrong, I didn't even notice. Still right now,
Speaker 1: I would have started off the show bashing you instead
Speaker 1: I had I had the scruff though, you know someone,
Speaker 1: I'm like a walking ad for Polo today. Actually, yeah,
Speaker 1: didn't have a Polo boots. Polo boots. You are un jeans? No,
Speaker 1: not jeans, sorry, Greg, I mean we're best friends. Don't
Speaker 1: have to wear the same exact things. Well, I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna wear mugs, I'll tell you that much right now.
Speaker 1: That's a steak by you. Do you want to try
Speaker 1: them on after the show? Trying stinky male ugg boots, stinky,
Speaker 1: very comfortable try? How was that was your combine show
Speaker 1: last week with venture? Jim Day? Was good? Are you
Speaker 1: getting h You know something that I contemplated texting someone
Speaker 1: today and I didn't. I don't know why. I probably
Speaker 1: just forgot. What else is new? Right, Frank forgetting to
Speaker 1: text someone? Um? This whole like NFL Combine Twitter, it's bad,
Speaker 1: like all the oh DK Metcalf, Oh he's gonna be
Speaker 1: the Nick Tuleo Jones projections. Did you see him in
Speaker 1: a cone? The three cone drills? Worse than Tom Brady?
Speaker 1: Oh my god? Like stuff is crazy. I will say,
Speaker 1: someone like the defensive linemen who were wearing like sub
Speaker 1: four fivelous what's ridiculous? So it's funny. I did see
Speaker 1: a tweet today, Umm, espn Jude's ran on who was saying, yeah,
Speaker 1: like you saw it doing Hassan's in the forty, which
Speaker 1: is bad. But like the most important thing is the
Speaker 1: giants like their meeting with him, and that's all that matters.
Speaker 1: What was Daniel Jones is forty, Greg, that's the next quarterback,
Speaker 1: the next quarterback of the New York Giants are the Giants,
Speaker 1: and that's gonna make a trade here? Come on, Greg,
Speaker 1: I don't think so. And the Giants will sat I
Speaker 1: mean they don't ever, Like when was the last time
Speaker 1: they moved up? I know, like they never did it
Speaker 1: with them and now that so they never traded down
Speaker 1: with Reese, not in the first round, but they did
Speaker 1: trade up. They traded up for Landing Collins. Actually that's correctly,
Speaker 1: just let walk away. They're not gonna bring him back now.
Speaker 1: One's like they're deadline to franchise tag him this week.
Speaker 1: There right a few bodies of mine, you know them, Robin.
Speaker 1: They're big Giants fans, also big Landing Collins fans, of course,
Speaker 1: So if he leaves, very bad. So basically I wanted
Speaker 1: to say that his worst nightmare would be Landing Collins
Speaker 1: in a Cowboys uniform, which might happen because they need
Speaker 1: a safety. Greg. This is a disaster. I'm sorry that
Speaker 1: I opened up that possibility for you. So what's gonna ultimately,
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen is the Giants, and rightfully so, they
Speaker 1: want a franchise tag him because he's hurt. They don't
Speaker 1: want to make him one of the highest pace safeties
Speaker 1: in football. He wants to be one of the highest
Speaker 1: pace safeties in football, so they says his franchise tag him.
Speaker 1: In a act of anger, he cleaned out his locker
Speaker 1: and think he used to get franch franchise tag and
Speaker 1: said this and showing up you franchise to I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm not showing up to September and the Giants have
Speaker 1: been like, yeah, we don't want to deal people that
Speaker 1: don't want to be here. I think you watch Giants
Speaker 1: Kings closer than I did last year. How did he perform?
Speaker 1: I feel like I didn't hear his name much. Listen.
Speaker 1: I mean, he wasn't as good as he was in
Speaker 1: his All Pro year the year before. But he's the
Speaker 1: leader of the captain of the defense, and he's good.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's as good as any player the helle
Speaker 1: on the defense, which isn't much. All right, Well, sorry, Bud,
Speaker 1: Hopefully he doesn't end up in Dallas, Cowboy. How about them?
Speaker 1: Gabo Baseball, Greg Lesball, Do you do you want to
Speaker 1: say anything else? On Paxton before you get to tie on,
Speaker 1: come on to hear more in taie On as well. Um, No,
Speaker 1: look the I think the home run stuff scares me
Speaker 1: a little bit. The hard hit rate was very high
Speaker 1: last year for Paxton as well. It was just kind
Speaker 1: of a weird season, like pitched with three seventh six
Speaker 1: ear right, two hundred eight strikeouts and only underd and
Speaker 1: sixty and a third. It's pitched like that's phenomenal. If
Speaker 1: this guy could go one on eighty. I mean you're
Speaker 1: looking at like two twenty strikeouts from James Paxson, so
Speaker 1: I get that upside. I drafted him in the fourth
Speaker 1: round of the Great Fantasy based Invitationals, that is, in
Speaker 1: a fifteen team draft. I could let you know some
Speaker 1: pictures that I took him over. I took James Paxson
Speaker 1: and and then the next two picks in this draft
Speaker 1: were Stephen Stratford and jameson Tyon. Um. I will say
Speaker 1: if Clevinger was there, might have made the decision a
Speaker 1: little bit more difficult. Have those guys ranked back to
Speaker 1: back with with Paxiston and Clevinger, But I do have
Speaker 1: Paxson rank once about higher, so I like I like
Speaker 1: him in this range. Do you ever lean toward the
Speaker 1: do you ever lean toward the National League? What are saying, hey,
Speaker 1: thailands here obviously passion, you know, there's there's not really
Speaker 1: there was Actually I know there was members that came
Speaker 1: out last year around this time when we were talking
Speaker 1: about Garrett Cole Grant when everyone was saying, oh, well
Speaker 1: Garrett Cole going from Pittsburgh to Houston. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: it's much tougher in the A L. And I believe
Speaker 1: it was Todd Zola who tweeted out the differences between
Speaker 1: E R A in leading has like it's not a
Speaker 1: thing anymore, Like it's actually very imparable. Ear ras between
Speaker 1: National League pitchers and American League pictures. Well maybe, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe there's just better pictures in the American League. I
Speaker 1: don't know if that's necessarily the case. I think like
Speaker 1: there's really good pictures on both sides because obviously Sergers
Speaker 1: in the National League and de Groms in the National League.
Speaker 1: So um, yeah, the e rais and both leagues are
Speaker 1: actually quite comparable. So I don't think the A L
Speaker 1: versael thing is uh is much of a myth. I
Speaker 1: will I will say, you know, regarding Paxton leaving Safeco,
Speaker 1: he has been much better in Safeco in his career
Speaker 1: than he has been outside, so you see what happens.
Speaker 1: But he is a super talented picture and um, you know,
Speaker 1: the Yankees in terms of like analytics and and you know,
Speaker 1: developing pictures, they've done a little bit better of a
Speaker 1: job obviously with guys like Severino over the past couple
Speaker 1: of years. So I think that they'll be able to
Speaker 1: like mitigate Paxton's deficiencies, if that makes sense. I think
Speaker 1: that makes sense. I think that that makes Holly. That's
Speaker 1: not just a Yankee fan of me talking like who
Speaker 1: would you like? Would you rather have Paxton? Or to me,
Speaker 1: there's like this group of Clevinger I own, um Flaherty
Speaker 1: and Corbin who were all kind of going right around him,
Speaker 1: who might be safer for ending s pitched. But like
Speaker 1: any basis, Packson will be better than those guys. Probably, yeah, probably.
Speaker 1: It's basically just like what do you want? Do you
Speaker 1: want like a hundred ninety endings of Jamison Tyne giving
Speaker 1: you a three whatever three six e r A with
Speaker 1: a solid whip, like a one point one five whip,
Speaker 1: and you know, maybe a hundred and eighty strikeouts or
Speaker 1: do you want a hundred and sixty maybe hundred seventy
Speaker 1: pitched of James Paxson with maybe a little bit of
Speaker 1: a better e r A and way more strikeouts? Right?
Speaker 1: Like two strikeouts? So you just you kind of have
Speaker 1: to ask yourself, like what do you want? More strikeouts
Speaker 1: are a little bit harder to come by it, but
Speaker 1: of course you need help. You need healthy in the
Speaker 1: rotation too, So why can't the answer to be Patrick
Speaker 1: Corbyn who's giving you the strikeouts? Right? Probably I just
Speaker 1: kind of let you inside the mind of Frank. Look
Speaker 1: what Maddie Mos said. I can't really disagree with, right,
Speaker 1: Like he's doing something differently, but like taking away the
Speaker 1: fact like he's not using his fastball and his other
Speaker 1: pitches as much and he's throwing a slider forty of
Speaker 1: the time, So maybe just throwing it more makes it
Speaker 1: that much better of a pitch hadn't been something that
Speaker 1: I really considered. I don't know, man, I just kind
Speaker 1: of feel it, like I feel like we're just paying
Speaker 1: for the career year from last year. He's good. He
Speaker 1: is good like he was he was awesome, Like every
Speaker 1: metric was like second best in baseball behind Serzer. What
Speaker 1: else he's looking for? You could have him, Greg, I'm
Speaker 1: going to have problem with that on the team that
Speaker 1: we share together. I don't really want him. Really, no
Speaker 1: team will share together. I don't I don't really want Corman.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I did. I gotta feel it. Maybe
Speaker 1: maybe it's not warranted. I don't know. Okay, okay, you
Speaker 1: mentioned Jack clar in this tier as well, and I
Speaker 1: get the tie on thing right. We talk a lot
Speaker 1: about James Paxton here just now. James Flaherty is, without question,
Speaker 1: also were Jack Flarerty excuse me, is of course in
Speaker 1: this tier. Flowerty is the twenty three pitcher on the
Speaker 1: ward right now, and we'll get to Zachary and and
Speaker 1: Clevinger as well. Flaherty and Irish last name, Yes, I
Speaker 1: don't know, like oh Flarherty's that's exactly. How like when
Speaker 1: when you're calling out Jackie, I just imagine like an
Speaker 1: Irish guy, like, hey, Jackie boy, JACKIEO Flaherty, what a
Speaker 1: jack Jackie boy? I'm doing Like Canadians, we're both thereout
Speaker 1: that Irish jacton not so good Jack Flaherty, Jackie, You're
Speaker 1: going off the board. So I imagine people say his
Speaker 1: name though, big Jackie O Flaherty, Uh going back off
Speaker 1: the board. Um, and we just lost our Irish listening
Speaker 1: audience that much of them. Um Back to back here,
Speaker 1: Clevinger is like, I'm not from twenty three and me
Speaker 1: I'm actually very Irish grade. So you can say you
Speaker 1: should have been people Irish. Would you like Jack Flaherty
Speaker 1: just flat out do you like Jack Flaherty? Um? I
Speaker 1: do like Jack Flaherty. I think he has the ability
Speaker 1: to turn into an ace based on some of the
Speaker 1: underlying skills here. I mean a thirteen point four percent
Speaker 1: swinging shrike rate. We're talking about that in the same
Speaker 1: range as Luis cast again with with Noah Syndergard. Now,
Speaker 1: he didn't go enough Annings last year to qualify as
Speaker 1: a qualified starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, that is, but a
Speaker 1: strike out that was top ten among starting pitchers last
Speaker 1: year as a rookie. That's pretty impressive. Tween strike rade
Speaker 1: is there pur with a sweeping slider. Both pitches were
Speaker 1: ranked inside the top twenty in fan grass in terms
Speaker 1: of pitch values. So he's not one of these guys
Speaker 1: were like his fastball is really bad and he can
Speaker 1: never use it like Luis Castillo Luise Castios fastball Greg
Speaker 1: top ten worst pitches in baseball last off. I didn't
Speaker 1: want more Decon to hate me too much, but it
Speaker 1: was ranked in the top ten worst fastballs in baseball
Speaker 1: last year. Basically he throws a miles per hour, but
Speaker 1: it's straight as an arrow, Greg, and it's getting squared up.
Speaker 1: And he actually saw Justin Bore over the weekend square
Speaker 1: one up against Louise Castio. Yeah, to make sure. So
Speaker 1: again we didn't bring it up all modecos here because
Speaker 1: we don't want him to hate us. But with Jack Flaherty,
Speaker 1: I think the skills are there. The one thing I
Speaker 1: worry about is the command, right. So I looked at
Speaker 1: his month by month e r A and his two
Speaker 1: worst months I believe were like July in September, and
Speaker 1: those were the months where his walks per nine were
Speaker 1: over four Greg. So that's the biggest bugaboo when it
Speaker 1: comes to Flaherty. And you know his first pitch strike
Speaker 1: percentages fifty seven percent. It's something he needs to get
Speaker 1: better at now. If he brings us up to like
Speaker 1: the over sixty percent range where he's kind of getting
Speaker 1: ahead and counts, and he's able to finish people off
Speaker 1: with with this fastball slider combination, he could like he can.
Speaker 1: You want to talk about a guy who can make
Speaker 1: the next step, it's Jack Flaherty. He has big upside,
Speaker 1: but in this range he also has more downside because
Speaker 1: if if the lack, if the command comes back a
Speaker 1: little bit, and like he starts walking guys, then that's
Speaker 1: where you can see the whips start to balloon a
Speaker 1: little bit, and then guys are getting on base, and
Speaker 1: then maybe he gives up a home run with you know,
Speaker 1: two or three guys on base rather than like it
Speaker 1: being a solo home run because he's walking guys. Then
Speaker 1: those are kind of like the subtle differences where we're
Speaker 1: talking about the difference between him being like a low
Speaker 1: three e r A and he being a high three
Speaker 1: e r A with like a bad whip. So I
Speaker 1: think he has higher upside than some people in this range,
Speaker 1: but he also has lower downside, So I kind of
Speaker 1: I think this is a good range for him to be.
Speaker 1: But he definitely definitely has the skills to be one
Speaker 1: of like the top twenty, maybe even like top fifteen.
Speaker 1: Starting pitchers in baseball kind of reminds me of James
Speaker 1: Paxton last year and the Aaron Nola from a year
Speaker 1: or two ago as well. Where you're in this range.
Speaker 1: My issue with taking him is that you're not You're
Speaker 1: you're paying for that upside, right like you're this spot
Speaker 1: where he's going high end SP two at this spot.
Speaker 1: I'm being honest, I don't really love any of the
Speaker 1: guys in this way. Like as much as I loved
Speaker 1: tie Own last year, I loved Corbin Like maybe that's
Speaker 1: what's just part of it is because I owned them
Speaker 1: at their discount last year and now I kind of
Speaker 1: feel like all the value has been sucked out of
Speaker 1: him and pay a fourth round price tag. Definitely, that's
Speaker 1: why I don't really want to do. It. Doesn't include
Speaker 1: Clev as well, because everyone loves Clev. Yeah, it's similar, right,
Speaker 1: like he is going outside I think the top forty
Speaker 1: starting pitchers last year. He started to creep up a
Speaker 1: little bit in spring training. But I'm a little more
Speaker 1: apt to take Cleving jur And I'll tell you why,
Speaker 1: Greg because of the where he plays with the Cleveland Indians.
Speaker 1: This is what they do. They developed starting pitching they're
Speaker 1: so good at it, and I think that's why a
Speaker 1: lot of people are in on Shane Bieber as well
Speaker 1: as because look at some of the starting pitchers that
Speaker 1: have come like have come into this organization. Corey Kluber
Speaker 1: was a late bloomer but has been amazing. Carlos Carrasco
Speaker 1: picked up from the Phillies. He's come here. It took
Speaker 1: him a couple of years, but he's been amazing over
Speaker 1: the past couple of seasons. Trevor Bauer was traded for
Speaker 1: with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Took him a couple of years.
Speaker 1: He has turned into one of the best ten pitchers
Speaker 1: in baseball last year. This is what they do. And
Speaker 1: it's not really a terribly tough division either. In fact,
Speaker 1: it's a tough it's a division they want to target
Speaker 1: in terms of opponents that they're gonna be facing. The
Speaker 1: White Sox. Yeah, they're gonna get Eloy Jimenez. Still not
Speaker 1: a great lineup, right, Like, we're really worried about John
Speaker 1: j leading off with the Chicago White Sox. This here.
Speaker 1: I like the Twins line up a lot. Admittedly I
Speaker 1: do like that lineup, but the Royals, like, are we worried, Like, no,
Speaker 1: we're not worried about the Royals either. So Clevenger to me,
Speaker 1: I haven't ranked just behind James Paxson. Have him ahead
Speaker 1: of Jamison ty one. I think I think we saw
Speaker 1: a lot last year. Uh. He's kind of similar to
Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty in terms of the walks. He's got to
Speaker 1: control the walks. He's got to have solid command here
Speaker 1: with Clevinger. But he was one of thirteen starting pitchers
Speaker 1: last year to actually go two hundred innings, So he's
Speaker 1: already has that in his back pocket. We've seen him
Speaker 1: do it once. It doesn't you know, I'm not worried
Speaker 1: about him going to endings again because he's already done it, Greg,
Speaker 1: So he's probably the safest to get to that plateau
Speaker 1: out of everyone that we're star talking about in this crew.
Speaker 1: Maybe Patrick Corbin as well. But you know, he lowered
Speaker 1: the walks last year. Nine fastball, the slider and curve
Speaker 1: both ranked inside the top ten in Fangrass in terms
Speaker 1: of pitch values last year. That's a big difference Gregg
Speaker 1: is that he has a second and third go to
Speaker 1: pitch outside of his fastball, which is already pretty good
Speaker 1: it's nine. That's the biggest difference between him and some
Speaker 1: of the other guys here is that he has that
Speaker 1: second and third pitch, both being breaking pitches that are
Speaker 1: very very good pitchers pitches with the slider and the curveball.
Speaker 1: So to me, that just puts him a little bit
Speaker 1: ahead of the competition. The fact that you know that
Speaker 1: he's gonna go two under endings. He's gonna give you
Speaker 1: a strike out for any so the two hundred strikeouts
Speaker 1: are gonna be there. Twelve swinging shrike rate was top
Speaker 1: twenty amongst starting pitchers last year, right in line with
Speaker 1: Corey Klueber. I think he's a guy who's gonna go
Speaker 1: three s e r A as well. With some of
Speaker 1: these other names that we've mentioned. This is kind of
Speaker 1: like the projection we're expecting. But I like him a
Speaker 1: little bit more than Toyown because I know that he's
Speaker 1: like at least the fact that I've seen him go
Speaker 1: two pitched matters for me, and I got it, and
Speaker 1: I get just pitching for the Cleveland Indians like that.
Speaker 1: You know, they're known for developing these guys. They know
Speaker 1: how to do it. They've already done it with Clevinger.
Speaker 1: Isn't that one of the reasons that you kind of
Speaker 1: really right there that pitching coaches now ye Away, Callaway's
Speaker 1: now with with the New York matter. And that's why
Speaker 1: I brought up stephen that's to you last night and
Speaker 1: the underlying numbers from man, he's gonna have to take
Speaker 1: like a step to do something you haven't really seen
Speaker 1: him do before. Plus he has to say help with
Speaker 1: stephen Nes not as good as I thought they were
Speaker 1: going to be when eight before I looked into it
Speaker 1: and get your righting of these guys creating this whole
Speaker 1: kind of like the fourth round group, Well do that
Speaker 1: I have it. I have a Clevinger Clevinger, Tye o
Speaker 1: Flaherty Corman. That's that's the four and passions ahead of all.
Speaker 1: We'll do that when we come back as your best
Speaker 1: friends forever. Fantasy Sports right or never. Daily Rhodo dot
Speaker 1: Com learned from the game's best DFS players. We don't
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Speaker 1: Sprank samples Patreon four baseball coverage the number three most
Speaker 1: accurate ranker in all of fantasy baseball Twitter last year.
Speaker 1: That's that guy right there, more accurate than the all
Speaker 1: in kid himself. I'm not getting involved. Is it accurate?
Speaker 1: Is that an accurate portrayal that that would be a
Speaker 1: factual statement, Craig, I'm just dealing fact man. You are
Speaker 1: my Paul Hayman, you are my there you go, you're
Speaker 1: pumping me up. I I appreciate it. Number three Rancor
Speaker 1: last year. Unfortunately, we'll just behind Adam Ronus. I mean
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Speaker 1: He's very good. Top five though, join me on Patreon.
Speaker 1: I'm actually writing about these hyped up outfielders, Greggy, who
Speaker 1: are creeping up draft boards. Not really creeping, they're like flying.
Speaker 1: So I've already wrote about Austin Meadows and Byron Buckston.
Speaker 1: I'm also going to write about Jackie Bradley, Jesse Winker
Speaker 1: and Domingo Santana. These guys are all climbing up draft
Speaker 1: boards because of what they're doing in the spring. But
Speaker 1: there's a little bit more than that too. Like with
Speaker 1: Byron Buxton, he actually made um. He went back to
Speaker 1: the like drawing board this all season and changed out
Speaker 1: his workout regiment. He changed his batting stance, helimitated a
Speaker 1: leg kick. And you're signing you're you're starting to see
Speaker 1: some of that payoff here in spring training early on.
Speaker 1: So you check it out on my Hatreon. I'll let
Speaker 1: you know whether or not I am by rending the
Speaker 1: Buckston again. I'll leave the promo to you. I feel
Speaker 1: like I'm doing a good job where we're doing all right? Yeah, um,
Speaker 1: maybe maybe it's plat you buy me beers. Mm hmm, Okay,
Speaker 1: the deal is a deal. I'm going to buy you
Speaker 1: beer right now. I mean you already you know this week? Sure,
Speaker 1: let me know what day not to bring much? Well,
Speaker 1: we want to do a da Ko wasn't around because
Speaker 1: you're not making much here. She Friday Friday is the day. Friday,
Speaker 1: cool Friday, Friday lunch. It is um, all right, So
Speaker 1: you asked me before the break how I rank this
Speaker 1: tier of guys, we're gonna get into the ones we
Speaker 1: haven't spoken about yet. But as you can tell, Number
Speaker 1: one for me is Patrick Corbyn in this tier, I'm
Speaker 1: not you have a gut feeling that's cool, But everything
Speaker 1: I look at like he's really good. There's no sign
Speaker 1: that like head of James Paxton for me. Yeah, all right,
Speaker 1: so you can drift him in your home league. Oh,
Speaker 1: I will keep him my home plea. Alright right, I'm
Speaker 1: actually not keeping you don't like him for no reason,
Speaker 1: just like you like I'm keeping. This is James Town
Speaker 1: for two dollar cheaper. This is literally just a gut
Speaker 1: feeling which is so interesting to me. But I like it.
Speaker 1: I like it, believe me. I Patrick Corvins number one
Speaker 1: for me, and then I got James Paxton number two.
Speaker 1: Then I have Steven Strasburg number three in this year
Speaker 1: before James and ty On who goes number four? I
Speaker 1: got Clevinger five, I got Jack Flaherty six, and then
Speaker 1: I got Zach Ranky seven. Did you say I did?
Speaker 1: I haven't right after Paxton before Cleve, so me waxing
Speaker 1: poetic on Clevinger, didn't I like Cleve Man? I I
Speaker 1: think it's tears very tight. I can see you taking
Speaker 1: cleb over toy own. Um, you have Zach. We learned this, tire, Greg,
Speaker 1: I don't have a lot of people do I don't
Speaker 1: have zachar this. I'm sorry, I don't know if we
Speaker 1: learned this tyre. But Zach Gernky is at the end
Speaker 1: of this year, and you were saying to me before
Speaker 1: we um hit break, and then during the break that
Speaker 1: he was having agism and being a year early rather
Speaker 1: than a year late. And I was sold, admittedly last
Speaker 1: week at justin Burland here, I was all out of
Speaker 1: this guy until we kind of dove into the stats
Speaker 1: and I realized there's zero signs of slow going down
Speaker 1: for this human being. Well, Frank was telling me during
Speaker 1: the break, that's not exactly true when it comes to
Speaker 1: Zac Grinky. We're the signs that we're seeing when it
Speaker 1: comes to Grinky. Yeah. So with Granky last year, you
Speaker 1: saw the fastball velocity dipped all the way down to
Speaker 1: eighty nine point six miles per hour on average, which
Speaker 1: was a career low for him. Hard hit rate was
Speaker 1: fourth highest UM unqualified starting pitchers last year as well.
Speaker 1: And then in the second half you see the strikeout
Speaker 1: rate come down by three percent and the fifth go
Speaker 1: up to four point zero zero Greg. So to me,
Speaker 1: that's enough to like lower him in his tier. I
Speaker 1: don't think he's a fourth round pitcher. You don't really
Speaker 1: have to pay that price tag either. You can get
Speaker 1: him in the fifth round. Again, this is a roster
Speaker 1: construction thing where if you take guys who are a
Speaker 1: little bit more injury prone, but you want endings like Granky.
Speaker 1: I think is a safe guy for endings like That's
Speaker 1: what he's gonna give you over two pitched and four
Speaker 1: of the last five seasons, so I think he's pretty
Speaker 1: safe for at at least two under endings. But I
Speaker 1: do worry about the skills kind of declining a little
Speaker 1: bit back to back seasons. Oh A three twenty e
Speaker 1: r A. As Frank said, he we're such a vision
Speaker 1: two like gotta face the Dodgers, gotta face the Rockies,
Speaker 1: which he's always had to do. But you know, with
Speaker 1: a declining fastball, I just worry about that a little
Speaker 1: bit more. Yeah, tough, the wind is gonna be there,
Speaker 1: like the run support with the Diamondbacks and they lose Goldschmidt,
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know how great the line up
Speaker 1: is going to mean. Now He's interesting. As the season
Speaker 1: we're on, he did get worse. As I think you mentioned.
Speaker 1: What striking to me was the K numbers really came down.
Speaker 1: Although back in his best year of his career, got
Speaker 1: a strikeout rate barely eight strike up her nine rather
Speaker 1: barely eight, which it was kind of interesting. Um, walks
Speaker 1: went back up. But he used to walk a lot
Speaker 1: more guys he does now. So I don't like. I'm
Speaker 1: not totally out, I would say on Zach Rinky, UM
Speaker 1: not an active I just think that he has the
Speaker 1: least amount of upside of the guys we've talked about
Speaker 1: Zach wield ranked ahead of himself. I don't agree with that. Um,
Speaker 1: I just think he has the least on the upside
Speaker 1: of this man. I don't like him. Again, a lot
Speaker 1: of people don't even realize the Zach Wheler pitched a
Speaker 1: hundred eight innings last he did about the years years
Speaker 1: before that. Ye also, but you skipped a couple in
Speaker 1: it and I realized that. But he's not a concern
Speaker 1: that he would so many innings last year after not
Speaker 1: pitching into the last two seasons for the most part, Well, Gregg,
Speaker 1: he actually got better as the season went on. So
Speaker 1: again what I mentioned, how about this Greg, you know,
Speaker 1: his final eleven starts as great as he was, right,
Speaker 1: he had like a sub two e r A. Were
Speaker 1: spoke about the numbers a little bit earlier on the show,
Speaker 1: like point eight one whip and you know, his his
Speaker 1: expit was right around like three points, like three point
Speaker 1: four seven, so was sub three point five. You know,
Speaker 1: if you keep your expectations realistic, I think that he
Speaker 1: can be a sub three point five year a guy
Speaker 1: with a near strike upper ending. And if he you know,
Speaker 1: if he continues this progress that he made last year
Speaker 1: in terms of not walking people, because walks used to
Speaker 1: be a big issue for him. It's not like he
Speaker 1: didn't walk anyone last year, but he was much better
Speaker 1: in terms of the command department. And you know, he
Speaker 1: wasn't uh, you know, he wasn't walking as many guys.
Speaker 1: So that again, what Mordice said about him is true.
Speaker 1: If he can continue and build off the games that
Speaker 1: he made last year, then yes, he can jump into
Speaker 1: the top twenty. And that's what I'm expecting to do.
Speaker 1: In nine of those eleven final starts that he made.
Speaker 1: He went at least seven innings pitched nine times. I
Speaker 1: mean seven innings nine different times over his final eleven starts.
Speaker 1: That's amazing. It's one of the It's one of those
Speaker 1: Japans of games. So they trusted him last year. They
Speaker 1: pushed him and he responded well, So I'm trusting him listening.
Speaker 1: It's one of those. I own Zach Wheeler last year,
Speaker 1: so I know I recognize in the great fantasy based
Speaker 1: momentational I won first in my league, I finished fourth
Speaker 1: in the overall. Yeah, I was right there with you. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean the people that own Zach Wheeler last year
Speaker 1: recognize how good he was. Can he continue? Can he
Speaker 1: build on that? I think what's good is his ADP
Speaker 1: isn't around these guys right now, which is obviously a
Speaker 1: great thing because he's still UM. You can still get
Speaker 1: him an a decent value, not a fantastic value, but
Speaker 1: a decent enough value, I think, UM for Zach Wheeler.
Speaker 1: But will it uh will continue into his is a contract?
Speaker 1: Your fan, right, so will it continue into this contract year?
Speaker 1: Is it possible to bets fall out and he gets traded?
Speaker 1: That's something you're interested. He becomes Patrick Corban level of good.
Speaker 1: Maybe he becomes Patrick Corban level of good. And Mike
Speaker 1: Flora has a lot to say on Zach Wheeler as well.
Speaker 1: Hand over there Mike Florio's Patreon page to learn more
Speaker 1: about Zach Wheeler. Um, we're like one of those strip
Speaker 1: adapters where we just we're just plugging in everything you
Speaker 1: gotta do it. Look look for those that are wondering.
Speaker 1: We have gotten some questions about this. This is the
Speaker 1: spot where Clayton Kershaw is now going pretty pretty normally.
Speaker 1: I would say his a DPS about sixty two. He
Speaker 1: has begun throwing pretty lightly. Again. Oh, I don't expect
Speaker 1: him to be ready for the beginning of the regular season,
Speaker 1: but probably far a little bit after that. Are you
Speaker 1: at this price at about two a d P? Are
Speaker 1: you in Clayton Kershaw? No. I actually had the opportunity
Speaker 1: to draft him in the Great Fantasy Basic Invitation. He
Speaker 1: went pick eighty one. I passed him up in the
Speaker 1: fifth round. In the fourth round as well. You guys
Speaker 1: have to ask yourself this question, Greg, why do you
Speaker 1: want to be in on this at this because of
Speaker 1: Clinton Kershaw? That's the theory, But the skills were already declining, right,
Speaker 1: So I think this is uh. We said this a
Speaker 1: lot during the football season. Strip the name I'm off
Speaker 1: the back of the jersey here for Clayton Kershaw. And
Speaker 1: you know the basketball velocity was dipping last year. He's
Speaker 1: been hurt the past couple of years with these crop
Speaker 1: back injuries. The skills were starting to decline last season
Speaker 1: as well. And on top of that, he's hurt before
Speaker 1: the season already starts. You ask yourself the question why.
Speaker 1: I don't think there's any reason to do it. Okay,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I agree with you the that
Speaker 1: ultimately I'm not. I don't want to mess with this.
Speaker 1: It only caused me more pain then reward. I would say,
Speaker 1: at what point do you draft him? Though? That's what
Speaker 1: it comes down to to me. Are you taking Are
Speaker 1: you taking Clinton Kershaw before you take Mike Fultonevitch? I
Speaker 1: mean he's hurt too, well, he should be bad by now.
Speaker 1: He's like throwing today. Yeah, oh man, I don't want
Speaker 1: either one of them. All right, I'll get another one.
Speaker 1: Are you taking Clint Kershaw before you take Luis Castia? No, no,
Speaker 1: let's takes you. Are you taking him before you take
Speaker 1: Charlie Morton like that. That's a range where I think
Speaker 1: I would take. I would start to like think about it,
Speaker 1: which is like playing kershard David Price. I would take Price.
Speaker 1: Do you're looking at the past? Pick one. I think
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have him. That's where he's gonna settle it.
Speaker 1: Because I have Prices my thirtieth thirty picture. I have
Speaker 1: more than one, so I think it's right around that range.
Speaker 1: I bring up Clayton Kershaw. I gotta bring up Madison
Speaker 1: Bumgarner in this spot also because they've been around a
Speaker 1: long time NLS Foe's a long time really good players.
Speaker 1: Madison Bumgarner has broken down now the last couple of years,
Speaker 1: and a year ago at this time, I threw everything
Speaker 1: out from twenties six freak injury threw it out. This
Speaker 1: is not this year doesn't count. Let's right here last year,
Speaker 1: and I told you not to do it, sold you
Speaker 1: not to draft him. That's correct. We were starting to
Speaker 1: see the beginning of the end. Correct. I didn't get
Speaker 1: him anywhere. You're a lot Jack was more correct than
Speaker 1: my logic is, and I didn't listen to my own logic.
Speaker 1: I drafted Yeah, Well that was before he got hurt.
Speaker 1: Drafted like I like the two or three swing, and
Speaker 1: then he got hurt. It's awful. Finished last year six
Speaker 1: and seven with an EARRA of three points two six
Speaker 1: is actually very good. He's fip an x fit obviously
Speaker 1: much higher than that. Strikeout rate terrible, walk more guys
Speaker 1: than ever, terrible a lot not to like the maze
Speaker 1: with Bea mcgarner despite the ear a fifth and infitt
Speaker 1: the ear a rather yeah. And look it's it's the
Speaker 1: decline of his fastball. You see it like the past
Speaker 1: three seasons, right, great isolated power. Isolated power is its
Speaker 1: logging percentage minus batting average. Right, so I'm looking at
Speaker 1: the isolated power on hit on his pitches. His fastball
Speaker 1: over the past three seasons has been two oh three
Speaker 1: isolated power in sixteen up to two twenty six, all
Speaker 1: the way up to two seventy two last year. So
Speaker 1: when people are getting his fastball, they're crushing it. And
Speaker 1: his spring has been a mixed back to this point.
Speaker 1: He pitched one ending in his first starting and give
Speaker 1: up like five or six runs, and then last week
Speaker 1: he pitched over the weekend he pitched three endings. He
Speaker 1: only give up one run. He gave up a leadoff
Speaker 1: home or to Jesse Winker, who's one of these hyped
Speaker 1: up outfielders right now. But that's lefty on lefty right there.
Speaker 1: So I think there's concern. I think there's a legitimate
Speaker 1: concern for Madison Bumgarner. You know, as good as he's been,
Speaker 1: he's been a workhorse. He goes two hundred endings. You know,
Speaker 1: who also went to under ning pitch and then just
Speaker 1: kind of like fell off a cliff one year. That
Speaker 1: was Felix Hernandez. I don't know if it's fair to
Speaker 1: say that, like it might be unfair to like make
Speaker 1: that direct comparison, but there's a lot of endings on
Speaker 1: that arm. Now. I don't know how much of his
Speaker 1: fastball declining has been due to all these like freak
Speaker 1: accidents that he's been in, like over the past couple
Speaker 1: of years. Last year it was like the fractured hand
Speaker 1: in spring training, you know, trying to feel the line drive,
Speaker 1: and then it was the dirt bike accident. How much
Speaker 1: of that has influenced his performance? I mean maybe there
Speaker 1: are you know, chronic lasting effects from those accidents that
Speaker 1: you know are affecting him, and there are going to
Speaker 1: continue to affect him. So I mean that there are
Speaker 1: just too many question marks, And I get it once
Speaker 1: you get into like this range of pictures, there's gonna
Speaker 1: be a lot of question marks with a lot of
Speaker 1: these guys. But I'd rather take one of these, like
Speaker 1: younger starting pitchers who has upside at this point, I
Speaker 1: I worry a lot about Madison bomb Garterer. I agree,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have him ranked this outside of my top forty,
Speaker 1: which is crazy to say, so I don't know where
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have him ranked, but I agree with you
Speaker 1: that much like Clint Kershaw on the upside just isn't
Speaker 1: what what it is for some of these younger guys,
Speaker 1: Like yes, you want a reliable veteran, but like I
Speaker 1: think Felix fernand is a really good example because it's
Speaker 1: a young guy who've had a lot of innings on
Speaker 1: that shoulder for a very young age, and you look
Speaker 1: at the age like, oh, he's hold bounce back, he's
Speaker 1: got a lot left. I get it. Last year and
Speaker 1: again the ear it was fine, the indicators not nearly
Speaker 1: as fine. I'm gonna let someone else do manage mom Garner,
Speaker 1: Like wouldn't you rather take a shot on like Eduardo Rodriguez,
Speaker 1: Greg Like, take a shot on one of these upside
Speaker 1: starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nick Pa Vetta, uh Nathan Vivaldi,
Speaker 1: who I think has upside, wouldn't rather take a shot
Speaker 1: on one of those guys rather than like I'm Garner.
Speaker 1: It would. That's where I'm at. It would. That's what
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. That listens pose is anyone. We're
Speaker 1: making good progress here. We get to have about her mom. Marquez,
Speaker 1: now that's up next, and we call him Matt Modiguebeck.
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding, guys, don't do that down soon. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Marquez is he's interesting man because in the in the
Speaker 1: second half of US year he was otherworldly. First half
Speaker 1: not so good. I believe it pitched like a five
Speaker 1: e r A, but his ERA indicators were much better
Speaker 1: than that two point six one e r A in
Speaker 1: the second half that was thirteen best in baseball at
Speaker 1: one point zero zero, whip among starting pitchers was ninth best,
Speaker 1: thirty three point nine percent strikeout rate, fourth best in baseball.
Speaker 1: His hey minus walk percentage point four percent that was
Speaker 1: fourth and best in baseball two point three zero x fip, Greg.
Speaker 1: So you're wondering, oh, the two point six one e
Speaker 1: r A, you know how good was that? Actually? Well,
Speaker 1: his two point three three zero x fit pitching in
Speaker 1: Colorado half the time was third best in all of baseball.
Speaker 1: Shrike Rey, I mean he was ridiculous. He was absolutely ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Si percent first pitch strike percentage. He's getting ahead of counts,
Speaker 1: near thirty five percent chase rate. People are chasing his pitches.
Speaker 1: And this is what we talked about. He made a
Speaker 1: tangible difference in his arsenal. He lowered the fastball usage
Speaker 1: by seven percent in the second half, and he upped
Speaker 1: that slider percentage by seven percent. The whip percent for
Speaker 1: his slider and his curveball are both over twenty percent.
Speaker 1: Those are nasty, nasty pitches. Here with her Man Marquez,
Speaker 1: the ear at home Greg four point seven four. Here's
Speaker 1: where we're at with her Man Marquez. It feels like
Speaker 1: it's John Gray all over again. We're getting a monstrous
Speaker 1: second half here where the strikeouts are great. He's getting
Speaker 1: you swinging strikes, he's limiting the walks. Everything. The ERA
Speaker 1: indicators are right in line with him, but he sucks
Speaker 1: in corps Field, Force Fields undefeated, Greg her Man Marque
Speaker 1: be on everyone else's team this year except I said
Speaker 1: it last week. I'll say it against the Corps is
Speaker 1: a disaster. It always ends up poorly for your After
Speaker 1: college basketball has reached the climax of the two thousand
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Speaker 1: month of Madness. Rhodos, you get fishing fish Store. I mean,
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Speaker 1: So that's what I've been doing wrong. That they look
Speaker 1: at you kind of funny, right when you go up
Speaker 1: to the cannets looking at that salmon. Buddy, What do
Speaker 1: you mean we have baseball gloves here, no salmon. Well,
Speaker 1: I get this fishing rod right right, and you get
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Speaker 1: Good morning after ze Horvid has actually done a study
Speaker 1: the Kardashian effect. I don't think you need to go
Speaker 1: to Harvard to know that dating a Kardashian is a
Speaker 1: bad thing if you're an athlete. But let's be real,
Speaker 1: like who was there? Really? Like worked out well for him?
Speaker 1: I'm like nearly ended up Dad, Bruce Jedder lost his penis.
Speaker 1: Like he's not even a man anymore. He's not emmy
Speaker 1: star on F and T s Y Radio and on
Speaker 1: your popular podcast providers, not only going around the people
Speaker 1: going around the world. Frank, no no, no, no, no
Speaker 1: no no no no no no no no no no.
Speaker 1: As soon as it hit you could ask Greg, I'm
Speaker 1: just hearing oh great song. People know it's a great
Speaker 1: vote rushing people. We've got you covered up that as
Speaker 1: the sports are Radio now working live programming from six am,
Speaker 1: not eleven pm, eleven eleven pm Eastern each and every
Speaker 1: week they cut up. Next from two to four it's
Speaker 1: Scout Fantasy without Amarona's Dr Rono, who is expected to
Speaker 1: be here by the way, this week next weekend to
Speaker 1: cover the n FBCS next week, right, not this weekend,
Speaker 1: that is next weekend. Great cool. From four to seven
Speaker 1: pm e S Time, it's g T D Gave Brenzy
Speaker 1: cam Stewart. Have you covered game time Decision? Seven pm,
Speaker 1: NBA Takeaways with Welsh and Bogman seven thirty The Fantasy
Speaker 1: News Desk with Dan Strafford. You get them, uh. Coming
Speaker 1: up a little bit later on tonight from h eleven
Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time, it's called The Shots with Keith Irazari
Speaker 1: and tomorrow morning Bright and Early Weak up with the
Speaker 1: guys on make it range over here e Dane Martinas, Well,
Speaker 1: have you covered from six and nine am the right
Speaker 1: before us, as you know, nine to twelve, Joe sticks
Speaker 1: round and teams up with a lunatic fringe. Gave maurenci
Speaker 1: on like that morning after that's from nine to twelve. Uh,
Speaker 1: they'd actually hung out with dam Reset before and told
Speaker 1: me some stories. Um. And then tomorrow, of course, at noon,
Speaker 1: Frank and I went back Fantasy BFFs. We go from
Speaker 1: to from twelve to two each and every day Monday
Speaker 1: through Friday. Okay, we got through a lot of pictures today.
Speaker 1: I think we're making a lot of progresses. I think
Speaker 1: we're gonna we're gonna tap out right around our top
Speaker 1: thirty here. We'll see how many starting pictures top thirty
Speaker 1: starting pictures here. Um, so I think we can kind
Speaker 1: of run through some of these guys here the rest
Speaker 1: of this tire. So I have this tier Tier four
Speaker 1: for me is that starts to a pick SP twenty two.
Speaker 1: That's Jose Burrios Lea's Casto, her Man Marquez, Shane Bieber,
Speaker 1: Miles Michaelis, Chris Archer, to knacka, Robbie Ray, David Price.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into him let's do it. Um,
Speaker 1: let's get David Price first. How about that David Price?
Speaker 1: How the good year when he wasn't facing the Yankees.
Speaker 1: When you're facing the Yankees and it went incredibly poorly.
Speaker 1: It's always a narrative when we laugh and we joke
Speaker 1: about as Yankee fans with this duty is terrible against
Speaker 1: the Yankees forever and ever and ever, pretty good against
Speaker 1: everybody else. I'm back in press this year. I don't
Speaker 1: hate him. I actually have him ranked five spots lower
Speaker 1: than the consensus. Like, I think he's fine. I think
Speaker 1: you have to realize there's still risk involved with this
Speaker 1: elbow thing, like when when did it come out last year?
Speaker 1: Last spring? Right where like he has like a partially
Speaker 1: torn U c L or you know, something in the
Speaker 1: elbow right, but you can pitch through it like Tanaka
Speaker 1: has done it for the past three seasons. It feels like, so,
Speaker 1: David Price, you still have to realize there is some risk.
Speaker 1: But um, he bounced back last year, Greg, I mean
Speaker 1: he still went a hundred and seventy six pits. He
Speaker 1: gave you over a strikeout for ending the whip one
Speaker 1: point one four, you know, one point one four whip
Speaker 1: over a hundred and seventy six endings. That is, Um,
Speaker 1: that's nothing to sneeze that. That's that's that's pretty good here.
Speaker 1: So a nice little bounceback performance here with David Price
Speaker 1: doing it with less velocity to than ever before. I
Speaker 1: need two point seven miles per hour. Uh, the swinging
Speaker 1: strike rate did come down a little bit. Um. Actually
Speaker 1: that's a little bit concerning. So you know, I do
Speaker 1: have him some of these below, some of these other
Speaker 1: guys here, Um, the nine swinging strike rate. You know
Speaker 1: what I find that interesting? Greg? Why frank so swingey
Speaker 1: strike rate is below lea g average at nine point
Speaker 1: six percent, and but his K per nine was nine
Speaker 1: point zero five, right, so he's everything a strike up.
Speaker 1: Any Miles Michaels was also a swinging strike erate of
Speaker 1: nine point six percent. Now these aren't direct correlation things,
Speaker 1: but it shouldn't be this big of a disparity. So
Speaker 1: Miles Michaels is K per nine last year, Greg, if
Speaker 1: you have to guess what it was, what would you say,
Speaker 1: first year you're back in the majors seven and a half,
Speaker 1: it was six and a half six point five five
Speaker 1: k per nine. David Price over nine case per nine
Speaker 1: had the same swinging strike rate, and Miles michael Is
Speaker 1: chase rate was six percent higher. Kind of super weird
Speaker 1: David Prices. I don't think I'm gonna own shares of
Speaker 1: David Prices because I like players who are going around
Speaker 1: this range more right so over the past week and
Speaker 1: NFBC ADP He's going pick like straight up. I'd rather
Speaker 1: have Miles Michaels more and he's going right around the
Speaker 1: same range. Zach Wheeler is only going nine spots higher.
Speaker 1: You know how I feel about Zach Wheeler, much rather
Speaker 1: to have him than David Price. And then even Luis
Speaker 1: Castillo is going he's going about fourteen picks later. I'd
Speaker 1: rather have Castillo than David Price. I'd rather have Chris Archer,
Speaker 1: who's going thirty seven picks later. I'd rather have Tanaka,
Speaker 1: who's going also thirty seven picks later. It's only I'm
Speaker 1: gonna own David Price because of the pictures who are
Speaker 1: going around him in this range. Yeah, I think there's again,
Speaker 1: much like Kershaw and bub Garner, there is a lot
Speaker 1: of higher upside guys, and David Price, I think the
Speaker 1: upside is seemingly gone. You talked a lot about Miles Michelis, like,
Speaker 1: is he somebody that can improve that strikeout rate? Like I?
Speaker 1: And he has really good command right one point three
Speaker 1: zero walks Brian's actual look, the era indicators were much higher.
Speaker 1: He's not going to pitch to a sub three ear right.
Speaker 1: You give up as much contact as you do with
Speaker 1: a guy like Miles michael Is you know a two
Speaker 1: point eight three e r a. I mean, that's fool's gold.
Speaker 1: But can he give you a three five six ear
Speaker 1: a with a good whip? Because he doesn't walk anybody
Speaker 1: and the strikeouts come up a little bit, maybe the
Speaker 1: k per nine closer to like seven and a half,
Speaker 1: maybe even closer to eight. And he gets people to
Speaker 1: chase a lot, and he Miles Michaels hays a really
Speaker 1: interesting arsenal of pitches. He there's a four steamer twenty
Speaker 1: six percent of the time, a sinker two percent of
Speaker 1: the time, a slider twenty six percent, and a curveball
Speaker 1: one percent. So we have four different pitches that he
Speaker 1: throws at least twenty one percent of the time. That's
Speaker 1: a diverse pitching arsenal. I'man I like I kind of
Speaker 1: like Miles michael Is. If you draft him, you do
Speaker 1: have to realize this. You have to pair him with
Speaker 1: someone who maybe it's gonna be a high whit pitcher,
Speaker 1: but it's gonna give you a lot of strikeouts. And
Speaker 1: what I told Greg when I was, you know, thinking
Speaker 1: about drafting a guy like Michaels, is Haaren with Robbie Ray,
Speaker 1: that's so funny. Lot of like Rodriguez, It's not funny.
Speaker 1: I was gonna literally have to bring that up. But
Speaker 1: I was like, wait a minute, this is because you
Speaker 1: and I had this conversation exactly right. So you just
Speaker 1: have to temper expectations in terms of the strikeouts. If
Speaker 1: you get like two any pitch from Miles Michaelis again
Speaker 1: this year. Last season he gave you two hundred forty
Speaker 1: six strikeouts, I think it's gonna come up from that.
Speaker 1: I would expect, let's say, hundred and six hundred seventy
Speaker 1: strikeouts this year from Miles Michaels. If he goes two
Speaker 1: dings pitched, you have to get someone who's gonna help
Speaker 1: you out a little bit more in strikeouts, right, So
Speaker 1: ropair him with Chris Archer even in that range. So
Speaker 1: Robbie Ray, we doesn't want to get to you next
Speaker 1: in this tier for you, And I'm very interested to hear.
Speaker 1: Why so Ray's caper nine? You know it's ridiculous, right,
Speaker 1: It's over twelve, which is crazy. The ear A slightly
Speaker 1: under four ERA A indicators. Actually, you know, if you're
Speaker 1: an expect guy like Modica, it seems better actually at
Speaker 1: three point seven seven. Well, the FIPS is at four
Speaker 1: point three one. Here's the very damaging part of Robbie
Speaker 1: Ray everything, specifically the walk rate over five over five
Speaker 1: is the walk per nine. I don't know if there's
Speaker 1: anybody worse in all Major League baseball then Robbie Ray
Speaker 1: look at it also. But I mean I have it
Speaker 1: up right here, all right, Is there anybody worse among
Speaker 1: pitchers starting pitchers with a hundred and twenty innings pitch
Speaker 1: last year he was nine is five point zero nine
Speaker 1: walk for nine was the worst in baseball, worst than
Speaker 1: Francisco Loriano, Lucas Giolito and Sean Okay. So again, the
Speaker 1: worst in baseball. But he's not actually that bad, like
Speaker 1: he was picking through injury last year. And it's never
Speaker 1: it's always been bad year prior a year prior seventeen
Speaker 1: three point nine four. The walk great. This is a
Speaker 1: guy that always walks in his career. The walk rates
Speaker 1: about four. He walks about four guys per ninenes. Considering
Speaker 1: he doesn't pitch nine in every start. He walks a
Speaker 1: lot of guys in every start. Now he combats out,
Speaker 1: of course with a strikeout. But you look at that
Speaker 1: um let the base percentage eighty and a half percent.
Speaker 1: There's always guys on base for Robbie, right, it's can
Speaker 1: he get them out? In the left the base percentage
Speaker 1: was obviously higher with you know, he was better at
Speaker 1: eighty four and a half percent. Not a surprise there.
Speaker 1: What do you want Robbie Ray as SP three year later? Okay?
Speaker 1: I mean ideally, if you could start off your you're
Speaker 1: gonna end up using a lot of draft capital if
Speaker 1: you want to pull this off, though, like if you
Speaker 1: want them as your SP four Just thinking about this,
Speaker 1: say you draft two starting pitchers in the first four rounds,
Speaker 1: you get Miles Michaelis and like the eighth round and
Speaker 1: then you get Robbie Ray in the ninth. That could
Speaker 1: work out, but then again you're using you're using four
Speaker 1: of your top nine draft picks on starting pitchers. Then
Speaker 1: and then you don't even have a closer yet. So
Speaker 1: these are all things that you have to weigh. But
Speaker 1: you know, I think another picture that you can pare
Speaker 1: um him with his Sinaka because Sanaka is a good
Speaker 1: whip picture. So I'm you worry a little bit about
Speaker 1: the whip could blow up a little bit with Robbie
Speaker 1: reik here, he doesn't give up a lot of hits. Again,
Speaker 1: it's it's the walks that are a huge issue. If
Speaker 1: we look over the past few seasons, his batting average
Speaker 1: against has been one nineties seven and twenty seventeen when
Speaker 1: he was amazing, and then last year it was to fifteen.
Speaker 1: Robbie Ray doesn't give up a lot of hits. He's
Speaker 1: got nasty stuff, there's no denying that. Like he's gonna
Speaker 1: get a lot of swings and missing but he yeah,
Speaker 1: he doesn't know where the ball is going half the time.
Speaker 1: So interesting his e ar a at home in Arizona
Speaker 1: four point seven three away from Arizona and Chase Field
Speaker 1: three or five. So maybe the human door helps him
Speaker 1: out a little bit this year. Why didn't it last
Speaker 1: year he was pitching through injury like it was kind
Speaker 1: of a mess of a season last year for Robbie Ray,
Speaker 1: it definitely was. And he's never gone more than a
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy four and a third innings pitch. But
Speaker 1: we know what his upside could be, Greg, You know
Speaker 1: his upside if he if he pitches a hundred and
Speaker 1: he picks a hundred sixty two innings in twenty seventeen
Speaker 1: and gave owners two hundred eighteen strikeouts. Actually in seventeen
Speaker 1: he gave two hundred eighteen strikeouts and back to back seasons.
Speaker 1: He'll be hard. Has to find a guy at this
Speaker 1: range of the draft, in the nine tenth round of draft,
Speaker 1: who's gonna give you close to twitter and twenty strikeouts, Greig,
Speaker 1: it just don't come around all that often. So I
Speaker 1: understand why people you know, want Robbie Ray. But you
Speaker 1: just have to know that there's volatility here in terms
Speaker 1: of the whip and the ear a. So you're gonna
Speaker 1: have to pair him with someone else who's gonna bring
Speaker 1: down those categories. You know, if you get him as
Speaker 1: your SP four, that's awesome. I think realistically you get
Speaker 1: him as like your SP three. I think pairing him
Speaker 1: with a guy like Miles michaelis actually makes a lot
Speaker 1: of sense, so to probably, like I'm trying to look
Speaker 1: at right, it wasn't dissimilar like the ear A says
Speaker 1: he was better in the second half, Like wait, better
Speaker 1: could be like a three point seven ear a picture
Speaker 1: with like a one point to five whip. But he's
Speaker 1: also gonna give you like over twelve case per not
Speaker 1: definitely is that making better for roto or points or neither?
Speaker 1: Definitely better for Rodo strikeouts matter so much? In my
Speaker 1: points league? You only get half a point per picture strikeout,
Speaker 1: So I mean, I'm more likely to take guy like
Speaker 1: Miles Michaels in the points league just because they're gonna
Speaker 1: give me the Endings and Paul Endings that you brought
Speaker 1: up Chris Archer before. Chris Archers obviously a lightning rod
Speaker 1: of a name. There's some experts absolutely love him that
Speaker 1: some expers absolutely hate him. And as Frank said, so
Speaker 1: interesting do you like Chris Archer this year? I'm more
Speaker 1: apt to get in on Chris Archers this year than
Speaker 1: ever before because no, not just that, it's I'm sorry, Well,
Speaker 1: if Sandro one of our editors, he's not here today,
Speaker 1: but if you're home listening, Sandro don't hate me because
Speaker 1: he does not. He does not buy anything. I am
Speaker 1: so excited for the Sandro attack. He does not. He
Speaker 1: does not buy into like the race seriae effects um,
Speaker 1: although I think you can argue against it. But Chris Archer,
Speaker 1: the past couple of years you've had to use a
Speaker 1: fourth fifth round price tag on him. Now you're getting
Speaker 1: even like the nine tenth round range, right, And I
Speaker 1: know he's pitched too over a four e R A
Speaker 1: three years in a row. It's been frustrating, but look
Speaker 1: at those underlying numbers, like every year, like is this
Speaker 1: just who he is? Like he's a four e R
Speaker 1: A pitcher who's never going to picture his peripherals because
Speaker 1: the guy has a career three point four or five
Speaker 1: x fit but he has a career three point seven
Speaker 1: e L. Right, So it's like it's kind of like
Speaker 1: the John Gray thing too, right, Like everyone wants to
Speaker 1: buy into the upside. To me, I think Chris Archer
Speaker 1: has upside. And you know, last year the strikeouts came down,
Speaker 1: they were down to nine point eight case per nine,
Speaker 1: but in years past eleven case per nine, ten case
Speaker 1: per nine with Chris Archer, Like you know, the strikeouts
Speaker 1: are gonna be there. Uh, he was a little bit
Speaker 1: dinged up less. You're only pitched a hundred forty innings,
Speaker 1: but in the three years before that, two hundred innings pitched.
Speaker 1: I've never had shares of Chris Archer before because I
Speaker 1: never liked that you have to pay fourth fifth round
Speaker 1: price tag for a guy that was giving you an
Speaker 1: e r A over four and a whip that was
Speaker 1: you know, one point to five. But now you're getting
Speaker 1: the similar the same upside that he's had in the
Speaker 1: past in Pittsburgh where maybe they can figure him out
Speaker 1: like he's he's out of the A L East Yanel
Speaker 1: Central is still not a great division because he has
Speaker 1: to face the Brewers and the Cardinals and the Reds.
Speaker 1: But he doesn't have to pitch in the Al East anymore.
Speaker 1: And you're getting him in the nine tenth round. I
Speaker 1: got him in the tenth round right as my you
Speaker 1: know sp three read in a Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational.
Speaker 1: I like taking a stab at the outside there. I'm
Speaker 1: a little bit more likely to take him at that point.
Speaker 1: He's always been a guy like he's. He has to
Speaker 1: work on a change and hopefully the Pirates put some
Speaker 1: emphasis on that because the fastball we've known, it's always
Speaker 1: been electric. Greg you know, he lives in the mid
Speaker 1: nineties with the fastball, and he has a great slider,
Speaker 1: but he's really a fastball slider and that's what's got
Speaker 1: him into trouble over the past couple of years. And
Speaker 1: this is what I say, is that starting pitchers need
Speaker 1: a third pitch. That's what Chris Archer needs. So hopefully
Speaker 1: he works on that and figures it out. Like the
Speaker 1: swinging strike rate was still in line with his career
Speaker 1: last year. Swinging strike rate, that's why we like Louise Cassio.
Speaker 1: Giving you a thirteen percent scween strike rate, You've got
Speaker 1: people to hate more than ever last year to so
Speaker 1: I actually think the strikeout rate should have been closer
Speaker 1: to what his career remarks are. Then he got a
Speaker 1: little bit unlucky in terms of the strikeouts last season.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm Chris Archer man. I like Chris Archer
Speaker 1: two man. I find myself going back and forth because
Speaker 1: I like to not Ka too, and they're always in
Speaker 1: the same range. What do you like between Archer and Tanaka?
Speaker 1: Like the winds are probably gonna be there for Tanaka
Speaker 1: but the durability, Like I expect Chris Archer to go
Speaker 1: closer to pitch and I would Tanaka. I think Tanaka
Speaker 1: is probably more like one six one seventy innings. They're
Speaker 1: actually very very very similar. Do you need to because
Speaker 1: like Tanaka is a great whip Pitcher, Archer probably closer
Speaker 1: to like one point to five whip. I think the
Speaker 1: strike out upside is better for Archer. It's like, what
Speaker 1: do you want? What do you want of these guys?
Speaker 1: Because if you want whip, then I think you take Tanaka,
Speaker 1: and which I've learned is very hard to find later
Speaker 1: on in draft. So you can get like sub one
Speaker 1: point one five whip out of Tanaka in the nine
Speaker 1: tenth round. That's very valuable Chris Archer. What he has
Speaker 1: is we have the peripherals. We're kind of being sold
Speaker 1: on the promise again here, but again you're getting at
Speaker 1: a discount compared two years past. You know, the hope
Speaker 1: being like a three seven or better ear rate of
Speaker 1: Chris Archer with at one point to five whip and
Speaker 1: han or eleven case per nine, that would be pretty good.
Speaker 1: If he goes two d any pitch and gives you
Speaker 1: like two strikeouts with three seven e R and at
Speaker 1: one point to five whip that would be a very
Speaker 1: very profitable picture that you're getting in the ninth or
Speaker 1: tenth round. These guys are very similar to me man
Speaker 1: like Frank get both. You're trying to get both on
Speaker 1: your team. They're like very solid, you know, they're not
Speaker 1: like But again, I like Archer because you don't have
Speaker 1: to pay pay the price tag now of a sudden,
Speaker 1: you're getting, you know, four or five rounds value compared
Speaker 1: two years past, because he really changed as much as
Speaker 1: a starting pitcher. I don't think so. I don't think either.
Speaker 1: Would you rather have these guys Robbing or Robbie Ray?
Speaker 1: I have both of these guys ranked hier than Rob.
Speaker 1: You just think they're a little bit safer. Archer has
Speaker 1: similar upside. Yeah, Rather these guys are Kyle Hendrix. I'm
Speaker 1: just kidding. Next question, would you rather have these guys
Speaker 1: are Charlie Morton the one starting pitcher I skipped according
Speaker 1: to the nfcc A d P. Yeah, I have Charlie
Speaker 1: Morton behind this tire. He's the start of the next
Speaker 1: tier for me. Do you want to do that today
Speaker 1: that tomorrow? No, because we can do like outside the
Speaker 1: top thirty tomorrow. Okay, one guy that we didn't talk
Speaker 1: about who is inside my top twenty five is Shane Bieber. Sure,
Speaker 1: but we we kind of mentioned him on Friday. The
Speaker 1: hard hit rate was scary. He lived in the zone
Speaker 1: a lot last year. Um, he's got to learn that
Speaker 1: to throw some pitches outside the strike of the But
Speaker 1: the Sweney strike rate was there, the whiff rate on
Speaker 1: his pitches, he's legitimate change Like, that's why people are
Speaker 1: buying into Shane Bieber, like legit control. Picture does not
Speaker 1: walk a lot of guys, but he can learn to
Speaker 1: nibble a little bit more and again I buy into
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Indians organization. They just developed Clevinger last year.
Speaker 1: Is it that crazy to imagine that Shane Bieber can
Speaker 1: take some kind of Clevinger like leap this season? I
Speaker 1: don't even get that crazy. I don't think a lot
Speaker 1: of the reasons you like my Clevinger last year, you
Speaker 1: have every rights like Shane Bieber. This year? Would you
Speaker 1: rather have Bieber or this arch group? I think you
Speaker 1: need right. I think you want to be safe to
Speaker 1: take the archer Ka group. If you want to take
Speaker 1: a shot, probably would I think shaneber I'd rather take
Speaker 1: Shane Meaber all right tomorrow on the program The Angels,
Speaker 1: Andrew Heiny and Tyler Scaggs, Charlie Morton at Water Rotarriguez
Speaker 1: and more. For Frank Stanfel, I'm Greg Susman takes the
Speaker 1: Matte Modec and the guys downstairs. We'll do it all
Speaker 1: go tomorrow, we hope,