1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. 3 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. 4 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: We're growing in job. 5 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 3: We're saying it's. 6 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 2: A cash to down. 7 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,920 Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 8 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 4: go to wind. 9 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 1: That's incredible, Big Banks, I'm all banks. 10 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the 11 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 2: ultimate kaba you want to pull. 12 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 1: And we are underway. 13 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 2: Hello everyone, welcome to the Week four XFL. 14 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 5: Fantasy Flex, the x Flex on the Action Network Podcast. 15 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 5: I'm Matthew Freeman, the editor in chief Fantasy Labs, part 16 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,639 Speaker 5: of the Action Network. In this episode, we're breaking down 17 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 5: week four lines, looking at the futures market, touching on 18 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 5: our favorite DFS plays, and highlighting our favorite bets. With 19 00:00:57,040 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 5: me as always, Sean Corner and Chris Raymon. Shawn is 20 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 5: our director of Predictive Analytics and Chris is a senior 21 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 5: editor and analyst at the Action Network. 22 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: Let's get into it. Week four. We got four good 23 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 2: games on the slate. 24 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 5: The first one Saturday, two pm Eastern the LA Wildcats 25 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 5: at the New York Guardians. If you look at Fandel's 26 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,440 Speaker 5: sportsbook right now, the Wildcats favored by seven and a 27 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 5: half a thirty nine point five over under. This opened 28 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 5: I believe around six and a half seven. It has 29 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 5: been bet up to seven and a half Sean, what 30 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 5: are your thoughts on this game? 31 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 3: So, first off, I think the most fascinating thing about 32 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 3: Week four is just gonna be the market's reaction to 33 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 3: the Week three blowout of LA over DC. I mean, 34 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 3: no one saw that coming, and I think just the 35 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 3: way we react to that is key to this week. 36 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 3: LA had a plus five turnover margin. They intercepted Cardell 37 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 3: Jones four times, so I think in situations like that 38 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 3: we typically do see the market overreact. I think it's 39 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 3: safe to say DC probably isn't a top two team anymore, 40 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 3: but I do think they just had an off day. 41 00:01:57,840 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 6: I still think they're a very good team. 42 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 3: LA is probably not the bottom two team we thought 43 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 3: they were heading the Week three, but I wouldn't crown 44 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 3: them as a top three team quite yet. So with 45 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 3: that in mind, I do like the Guardians. We kind 46 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 3: of showed value on the Guardians at Saint Louis, But 47 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 3: when you asked me to make a case why we 48 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,119 Speaker 3: should bet them, I said, there's no recon to bet 49 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,840 Speaker 3: them because in their shutout against DC, there was just 50 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 3: no positive things to take away. They were that bad. 51 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 3: My adjusted score for them was like two and a 52 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 3: half points, which is by far the worst game we've 53 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 3: seen all year. But last week I think they did 54 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 3: show at least signs of life on offense. They had 55 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:36,919 Speaker 3: seven of the ten drives actually cross from as midfield. 56 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 3: They in the second half, they had two drives where 57 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 3: they went for on fourth down in Saint Louis territory, 58 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 3: once on the Saint Louis thirteen and once on the 59 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 3: Saint Louis two. So I think the nine points last 60 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:48,519 Speaker 3: week were actually misleading. I think they were a lot 61 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 3: better than their score. I've been saying all along that 62 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 3: I think they have three XFL caliber starting QB, so 63 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 3: I think that it's time for them to start Luis Pres. 64 00:02:58,520 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 3: We could see that this week, and I think the 65 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 3: bounce back. I have this game LA minus four, so 66 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 3: I will be all over the Guardians plus seven and 67 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 3: a half, especially since it sounds like Nelson Spruce is 68 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 3: going to be out. I think that's going to be 69 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 3: a huge loss for the LA offense. And like I said, 70 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,959 Speaker 3: I think this is just an overreaction two week threes 71 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 3: blowout when you know no one's taking the Guardians. I 72 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 3: feel like I'm on an island over here. May a 73 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 3: case for them, but I think the market's overreacting here 74 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 3: and for DFS. You know, I mentioned Nelson Spruce is 75 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 3: going to be out. Trey McBride is going to be 76 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 3: extremely chalky this week eight point one K. He's incredibly cheap. 77 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 3: He put up his massive line last week. The five catches, 78 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 3: one hundred and nine receiving yards and two touchdowns and 79 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 3: only forty two percent of the passing play, so he 80 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 3: played less than half the snaps, kind of reminding of 81 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 3: Hollywood Browns Week one for the Ravens in the twenty 82 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 3: nineteen season, So I think he has room to grow there. 83 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 3: He's going to play probably around seventy eighty percent of 84 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 3: the passing downs, so I think he's going to be 85 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 3: extremely chalky. And then one guy that you could pivot 86 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 3: based on Spruce being out, I think is Donnis Jennings 87 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 3: at three K. 88 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 6: You know, he's men price and he's. 89 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 3: Probably gonna run around on about ninety percent of the 90 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:13,839 Speaker 3: snap so I think he's a pretty good pivot play 91 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 3: if you don't want to go with someone as Chalky 92 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 3: as McBride. I think Don Jennings could be a sneaky 93 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 3: play this week as well. 94 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 5: I think there's theoretical value on the Guardians. That said, 95 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 5: there's a difference between theory and practice, and in practice, 96 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 5: I just cannot bet on them. 97 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 2: Clearly the worst team in the. 98 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 5: League, and I know that I just want to stay 99 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 5: away from them in all facets of sports investing, whether 100 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 5: it's the spread or DFS, Raybond, what do you think 101 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:40,119 Speaker 5: about this game? 102 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm with you, Freedman. I have this game about 103 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 4: five and a half in terms of spread, and. 104 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: That's exactly where I have it. 105 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 4: By the way, you know, it's not a situation where 106 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 4: I'm going to go and back to Wildcats, but yeah, 107 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 4: the Guardians are kind of I'm going to treat them 108 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 4: as off limits for me too, because their film doesn't 109 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 4: really back you know, back it up. And I know 110 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 4: they looked a little better with Perez near the end 111 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 4: of that game, but at the end of the day, 112 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 4: when you look at pro football focuses, their grades are 113 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 4: the worst. They're the worst overall graded team, and they're 114 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 4: the worst offense and the worst defense. So you know, 115 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 4: the Wildcats, they're kind of mediocre in both facets, and 116 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 4: they they could be getting better. You know, Freeman, you 117 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 4: did talk about how they went through some overhaul with 118 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 4: their defensive coordinator after wead one. I mean, they've been 119 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 4: a lot more competitive on defense ever since that that 120 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 4: Week one game. So it's just a situation where we 121 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 4: have such a small samples that I do get the 122 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 4: theoretical value, but I'm just not confident enough to say, Okay, 123 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 4: let's go back the Guardians yet, which sucks because you know, 124 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 4: I'm out here in New York and it would be 125 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 4: nice if we had a good football team, but it's 126 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 4: not looking good. And as far as DFS, I'm with 127 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 4: Sean trade McBride is the guy that stands out. It's 128 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:54,960 Speaker 4: hard to get a sense of how they're going to 129 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 4: play it after him at wide receiver. I mean he 130 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,120 Speaker 4: only played half to snatch. We have Ced Black and 131 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 4: All who spent the time in the NFL maybe coming back. 132 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 4: He played over eighty percent of the snaps in Week one, 133 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 4: and then you have Jordan Smallwood and Donnis Jennings who 134 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 4: have been coming on lately. So a lot of guys 135 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 4: vying for snaps, and I think McBride is the clear 136 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 4: guy there as far as the backfield. You know, for LA, 137 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 4: Martez Carter he scored three touchdowns last week, but he's 138 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 4: questionable with an injury. 139 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: Larry Rose is. 140 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 4: As well, and Elijah Hood missed that game. So it's 141 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 4: a situation where until we get more clarity, it's hard 142 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 4: to really get behind too many guys on LA, even 143 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 4: though you do think they would have some success against 144 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 4: New York. So this is not a game that I'm 145 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 4: really liking too much for DFS, just because there's a 146 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 4: lot of uncertainty. I think if you're playing in a tournament, 147 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 4: you probably just stack Josh Johnson with maybe McBride and 148 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 4: one of the other receivers and pray. 149 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 5: All right, let's get to this second game here on Saturday, 150 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 5: we have the Seattle Dragons at the Saint Louis BattleHawks. 151 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 5: BattleHawks favored by twelve twelve and a half depending on 152 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 5: the book you are looking at. Thirty eight and a 153 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 5: half is the total that I see right now on FanDuel. 154 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 5: This line opened around forty and has been bet down. Sean, 155 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 5: what do you see with this game? 156 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 6: Yeah, so I have Saint Louis minus ten. 157 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 3: Here we kind of suspected their home field advantage was 158 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 3: going to be huge, and we saw that last week. 159 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,559 Speaker 3: You know, they just covered ten and a half points 160 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 3: spread just a week ago, so I think people will 161 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 3: be more comfortable backing them here. I do think there 162 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,239 Speaker 3: is some value on sale here, but I'm not gonna 163 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: bet them. I think the way I'm going to handle 164 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 3: this is I've got the over thirty eight and a half. 165 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 3: I mentioned last week, I thought, you know, Saint Louis 166 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 3: would win pretty handley against the Guardians, and you know, 167 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 3: I said, they'll probably score a touch on the opening 168 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 3: drive and the total will go up to forty two 169 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 3: and a half and I'll bet the under, and that's 170 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 3: exactly what happened. And then they just they're basically able 171 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 3: to just take their foot off the gas and didn't 172 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 3: have to do much after that. But I think Seattle 173 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 3: will hang in there long enough to keep Saint Louis offense, 174 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 3: you know, clicking. So Seattle's actually won the first half 175 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 3: in all three games, so we might be underrating them 176 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 3: a bit now. Certainly they've fallen apart in every second half, 177 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 3: so they're not a good team, but they are good 178 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 3: enough to at least get off to a decent start 179 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 3: and keep it close in the first half as we've seen. 180 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 3: So just with that in mind, I had the total 181 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 3: be CLO closer to forty one and a half. So, yeah, 182 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 3: thirty eight and a half is a little too low 183 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 3: for me. This isn't something I'm going to attack endgame. 184 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 3: It's going to be something I attack pregame because I 185 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 3: think both teams can actually start off, you know, with 186 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 3: the touchdown and their opening drives, So this is something 187 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 3: I'm going to want to get on early. We've been 188 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 3: talking about how betting the unders is smart play, but 189 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:34,839 Speaker 3: I think the totals have dropped far enough where I 190 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 3: think we can make cases, especially if you like an 191 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 3: underdog in the situation, to kind of lean towards the over. 192 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 3: So that's that's what I'm going to do here. Having 193 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 3: said that, I think Keenan Reynolds is probably the value 194 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 3: play here for Seattle. He's he's seven k He's run 195 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 3: around on ninety eight percent of the pass plays this season, 196 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 3: so he's going to be on the field for pretty 197 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 3: much every pass play. Austin Pearl is going to get 198 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 3: all the attention, but he's one point five k more 199 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 3: and I basically have them getting the same underlying usage 200 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 3: rates here, So I think, you know, if Seattle's going 201 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 3: to be trailing most of the game, they're going to 202 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 3: be throwing a lot. I mean Keen Reynolds, he's had 203 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 3: consistent target shares of this year of seven, eight and 204 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 3: seven in the first three weeks, so I think, you know, 205 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 3: with constant comeback mode being on the field every play, 206 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 3: he's just a steal out seven k. So I'll probably 207 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 3: have Keen Reils in my core this week. 208 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 2: Raymond, what do you think here? 209 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, I have the line around eleven and a half, 210 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 4: so I'm pretty in line with the with the market. 211 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 4: I think if I had to bet it, I probably 212 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 4: still go with the BattleHawks. I think their defense is 213 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:40,120 Speaker 4: really strong and it's going to be problematic for Seattle. 214 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 4: I just don't really have much good to say about 215 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,959 Speaker 4: their offense. They do come out strong, as Sean mentioned, 216 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 4: and they tend to look okay and open the drives, 217 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 4: but overall, I mean, Brandon Silver's so fifty three percent 218 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 4: completion rate just forty nine of ninety one, and they 219 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 4: tend to run the ball a lot with their three backs, 220 00:09:57,559 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 4: presumably to kind of keep the game from getting away 221 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 4: from them. 222 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: So I just don't really see Salos didn't miss. 223 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 4: A few more tackles this week, but they still, you know, 224 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 4: really didn't let the Guardians do much. So Seattle's a 225 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 4: team I'm probably going to steer clear from outside of. 226 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 4: As Shawn mentioned, Reynolds, and I think Pro would be 227 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 4: fine too, even though he's a little more expensive, because 228 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 4: I do think when Seattle throws, those are the two 229 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 4: guys they have. 230 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 1: Their four tight ends really aren't doing much catching the football. 231 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 4: So you for Saint Louis, if Matt Jones is healthy, 232 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:27,839 Speaker 4: you know, I'm looking at him, and if not, it's 233 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 4: it's christ and Michael in DFS. 234 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: And you know de Marie Pearson. 235 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 4: Now, he only ran around on forty five percent of 236 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 4: the dropbacks last week, which was down from eighty four 237 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 4: percent in week one, in sixty seven percent in week too, 238 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 4: So it's tough to project him because he still has 239 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 4: target shares of fifteen, thirty one and nineteen percent and 240 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 4: he's returning punts. So I think he's kind of a 241 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 4: solid tournament play, but just keep him on the floors 242 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 4: a little lower. 243 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 5: Sean to your point about Keenan Reynolds. He's number two 244 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 5: in the league with three hundred and seventy eight yards 245 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 5: on the season, so even though he's not playing a 246 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 5: pro offense, he is getting his opportunities. And we two 247 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 5: we did see him turn a long target into a 248 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 5: long touchdown, so he has some upside. But still in general, 249 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 5: I'm just Seattle. I'm pretty pessimistic about them. You know, 250 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 5: two of the three games they played in Seattle, and 251 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 5: they have a pretty significant home field advantage. So now 252 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 5: playing on the road in Saint Louis, where the BattleHawks have, 253 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:22,839 Speaker 5: you know, a home field advantage that is just as 254 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 5: good as one of the Dragons have. I think it's 255 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 5: a negative situation for them. And Rayveonnteer point about Brandon Silvers. 256 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 5: He's last in the XFL in PFF passing grade amongst starters, 257 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 5: so just a negative situation. BattleHawks have covered three straight games. 258 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 5: Not to say that you should just bet that trend blindly, 259 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 5: but they have the type of offense that I think 260 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 5: can get a lead and then establish the lead, a 261 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 5: defense that is good enough to keep a poor offense 262 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 5: from scoring points. So twelve and a half is a 263 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 5: big number. I betted at twelve. But I'm fully invested 264 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 5: in the battle Hawks. I think that is going to 265 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 5: be my team for the season, all right. On Sunday, 266 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 5: Houston Roughnecks favored by one point at the Dallas Renegades. 267 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,439 Speaker 5: This line immediately jumped off the page to me because 268 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 5: just you know, shooting from the hip, I would have 269 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 5: thought Roughnecks, best team in the league, should probably be 270 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 5: favored by more than one point. But the Renegades have 271 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 5: looked good in the past two weeks. This is a 272 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 5: over under a fifteen and a half, by far, the 273 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 5: highest total on the slate corner. 274 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:24,319 Speaker 2: What do you think? 275 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, so this one, I'm right in line with the market. 276 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 3: I will not be making any pregame bets. 277 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 6: Last week. 278 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 3: The only game I didn't make any pregame bets was 279 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 3: that DC LA game. Thank god I didn't have a 280 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,199 Speaker 3: good handle on it. This one, I just think it's 281 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:40,199 Speaker 3: cap perfectly. This is the game of the week. I 282 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 3: think we're gonna see a ton of points for DFS purposes. 283 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 3: I love Dallas here. We've seen teams that play Houston 284 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 3: just rack up play counts. We had LA, they ran 285 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 3: seventy three plays. Saint Louis eighty three Tampa Bay seventy six. 286 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 3: You know, that's why I have Cameron artist Pain and 287 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 3: Lance Dunbar as my one two running backs this week. 288 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 3: You know, it's mostly due to how many targets they 289 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 3: see in the passing game. You know, artists paying, he's 290 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 3: a lead back and he still sees you know, he 291 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 3: saw four targets, five targets and six. But Dunbar, I 292 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,680 Speaker 3: mean he saw six targets week one, six targets week two, 293 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 3: and then eleven last week. So I just think if 294 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 3: we're going to see increased play volume, I can't expect 295 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 3: that to go down too much. And I think the 296 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 3: reason for that is, you know, we talked about it 297 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 3: the other week when Lander Jones was trying to scramble. 298 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:27,640 Speaker 3: I mean, his knee is not one hundred percent, so 299 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 3: I think he does use them as a safety valve, 300 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 3: and I think that goes a show Like Dallas. They've been, 301 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:34,839 Speaker 3: you know, a slow start team with them. That's why 302 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 3: I waited for Seattle to take the lead last week, 303 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 3: and then I came in on them when they were 304 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 3: a pick them. In order to beat Houston, they're going 305 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 3: to have to shake the rest off right away. So 306 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 3: this is a situation where I think Dallas might surprise people. 307 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 3: I've been saying that I think they're going to get 308 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 3: better and better. They could end up being a top 309 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:51,959 Speaker 3: two team in the league. So that's why I'm saying 310 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 3: I think this should be a pick them is because Dallas. 311 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 3: We have to remember that Landry Jones he missed the 312 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 3: whole month leading up to the start of the season, 313 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 3: so he was going to have some He's looked rest 314 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,079 Speaker 3: in the past couple weeks with some pretty brutal turnovers. 315 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:06,120 Speaker 3: But I think he's going to be there and he's 316 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 3: going to be pretty much at full strength here. So 317 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 3: I think, you know this is going to be a 318 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 3: shootout for sure. 319 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, I bet the over. This is the one game 320 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 5: where I feel pretty decent about the over, even though 321 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 5: it is the highest total on the slate. The Roughnecks 322 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 5: have shown in the first three weeks that they are 323 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 5: really an offense that is capable on their own of 324 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 5: driving a total to the over. They pass more than 325 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 5: anyone else in the league, or just as much as 326 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 5: anyone else in the league, and even when they. 327 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 2: Get ahead, they still pass. 328 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 5: They have the four wide receiver set spreading the defense 329 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 5: out and these defenses, most of them don't have two 330 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 5: good cornerbacks, and the idea of having to put four 331 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 5: of them out there, it really just emphasizes the extent 332 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 5: to which the Roughnecks have an edge offensively and can 333 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 5: score point. So I'm on the over here, Raymond, what 334 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 5: are your thoughts on the game? 335 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I have it used in by a half point, 336 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 4: so pretty aligned with the market to think it's around. 337 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 4: Eshawn said, pretty much a coin full of game. I 338 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 4: like to call the down offense. I think I think 339 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 4: Donald Parr him, even though he's expensive, he's nine point 340 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 4: nine K. He's the guy that when Dallas needs to throw, 341 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 4: they look to him. His target heres fourteen percent, twenty 342 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 4: eight percent, in seventeen percent, he runs about seventy percent 343 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 4: overall of the of the routes. 344 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: But he's out there to catch the football. 345 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 4: And so I like him and what could potentially be 346 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 4: a shootout, And yeah, I think Dunbar this is a 347 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 4: This seems like a Dunbar game. I have Dunbar ranked 348 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 4: number two in pay ranked number one as well, but 349 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised in this game if Dunbar actually 350 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 4: leads Dallas in production because they seem to look at 351 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 4: him just a little bit more in the passing game. 352 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 4: He had a target share of twenty seven percent last week. 353 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 4: He's been at fourteen percent plus all three weeks. So 354 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 4: if this turns into a back and forth game, I'm 355 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 4: going I'm going with him as kind of a pivot 356 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 4: off Camar's pain, and I think for Houston, I have 357 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 4: cam Phillips ranked is my number one receiver, but I 358 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 4: also have Khalil Lewis ranked number three. So this is 359 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 4: a team that unfortunate know we Sandy Coats really hasn't 360 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 4: been able to produce and his routes run per dropback 361 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 4: have gone down every week from seventy three to sixty 362 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 4: five to fifty four. And Nick cam Phillips Kulibl has 363 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 4: played ninety five percent of the routes last week and 364 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 4: Nick Howie played one hundred percent. 365 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 1: So it looks like Houston is rolling with those three guys. 366 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 1: You know, Philip Walker leaving the league in passing yards. 367 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 4: So this is a good DFS stat game and probably 368 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 4: the teams that you want to pay up for and 369 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 4: then try to find value with some of the other 370 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 4: teams on the sleep. 371 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 5: One hundred percent with you there on Killer Lewis. He's 372 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 5: my number three as well. I would rather have I 373 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 5: think actually Liance Dunbar at sixty seven hundred than Cameron 374 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 5: Artists paying at eight thousand. I think there's some good 375 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 5: value there. And then you mentioned Sammy Coates. Man it's painful, 376 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 5: but he actually still had one hundred and twenty one 377 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 5: air yards last week. He's still being targeted deep. It's 378 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 5: just you know, can he actually convert those into yards 379 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 5: yet to be seen. Let's get to the final game 380 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 5: on the slate. The DC Defenders, who just got whooped 381 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,120 Speaker 5: Sean as you mentioned last week, and so that has 382 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,400 Speaker 5: really I think changed the way that people are viewing them. 383 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 5: They are at the Vipers, who also did well last 384 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 5: week in terms of they were struggling in weeks one 385 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 5: and two with the yardage and then finally they converted 386 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 5: yardage into points in a week three. So the Defenders 387 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 5: at Tampa Bay Vipers. The Defenders opened as a one 388 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 5: point underdog, which was just egregious. That has been bet 389 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 5: to two and a half crossed over zero. So the 390 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 5: Defenders are now two and a half point favorites on 391 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 5: the road a forty four point five over under Sean, 392 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 5: What do you think of this game here? 393 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like you alluded to, when I saw 394 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:46,959 Speaker 3: the opening line, I thought it was a typo. And 395 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 3: I've been a Tampa Bay Vipers backer. I ended up 396 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 3: biting on them at plus seven and a half last week, 397 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 3: barely won by the hook. But I've been saying, you know, 398 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 3: their offense has been moving the ball, they just haven't 399 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,600 Speaker 3: been scoring. So I looked at this game thinking I 400 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:01,920 Speaker 3: might able to get them at plus seven or something, 401 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 3: and then DC got blown out. And then when I 402 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 3: saw DC getting plus one, I just thought, it's almost 403 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 3: one of those lines where you think it's too good 404 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 3: to be true, like what. 405 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 6: Am I missing here? But yeah, sure enough. 406 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 3: I think this is one of those games where the 407 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 3: sharps and the public are probably on the same side. 408 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 3: So I could see this ending up, you know, pushing 409 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:19,679 Speaker 3: to DC minus three and a half or so. 410 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 6: That's where I had it. So yeah, I got. 411 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 3: In on them when they were minus one. I'll probably 412 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 3: back them again. I think at two and a half 413 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 3: you still have some value there. I think once they 414 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:30,639 Speaker 3: get to three and a half, I'll back off because, 415 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 3: like I said, we're still not sure you know where 416 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 3: to rank them now after last week, I mean, that 417 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 3: was brutal, so it's gonna be hard to back them here. 418 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is going to be starting Aaron Murray, it 419 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 3: sounds like, so once they get their QB situation a 420 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 3: little bit more stable, I think they're going to surprise 421 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,199 Speaker 3: them people. But it's a little too soon to be 422 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 3: backing them here. So yeah, minus two and a half 423 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 3: is still a play for me on DC, and then 424 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 3: when it comes to DFS, I think it's a good 425 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 3: time to reinvest in DeAndre Tompkins. He's fifty two one 426 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 3: hundred again this week. I think that's where he was 427 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,080 Speaker 3: last week, and he was about sixty percent owned in GPPs, 428 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 3: so massive chalk. He had a dud one catch for 429 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 3: eighteen yards, but the entire DC offense put up a dud. 430 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:14,679 Speaker 3: So I think if they bounce back here, he's going 431 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 3: to be a still at that price, and I think 432 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 3: he'll be lower on I could see him be being 433 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 3: in like the twenty five to thirty percent range, which 434 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 3: is way too low for him. He's going to be 435 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 3: on the field most of the plays, and you know, 436 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 3: I think they'll rebound this week and we'll see the 437 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 3: DC offense we saw in the first two weeks. I 438 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,400 Speaker 3: think Tompkins is a good bounce back play this week 439 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 3: in DFS. 440 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:32,880 Speaker 2: All right. 441 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 5: Shout out by the way to Tony Marquiz, who does 442 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 5: the air yards data for US at Action Network. He 443 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 5: was looking at the air yards specifically for the DC 444 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 5: Defenders in a week three and he noted that Cardel Jones, 445 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 5: out of all the air yards he threw, ninety nine 446 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 5: of them went out of bounce, seventy one landed more 447 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 5: than five yards away from a receiver, in seventy six 448 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 5: were intercepted. It was just an all around horrendous performance 449 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 5: that we saw last week. But I we will have 450 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 5: the Defenders just in terms of power rankings a half 451 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 5: point ahead of the Renegades, and you know that might flip, 452 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 5: but still overall optimistic on this Defenders team, and waiting 453 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 5: to see on Aaron Murray. You know, the word is 454 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,880 Speaker 5: that he probably will play, but I haven't projected him 455 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,439 Speaker 5: yet until he actually returns to practice rapon. 456 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on this game here? 457 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, I have it DC by three and a half. 458 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 4: So I'm kind of inlign with you guys. I think 459 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 4: the number opened very curiously. You know, I think DC 460 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 4: is the better team. I'm a little bit wary only 461 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 4: because you know, the home field advantage has come into 462 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 4: play a lot. 463 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: So Tampa Bay looked better last week. 464 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 4: And if they can get Murray back and kind of 465 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 4: mixing flowers, you know, it's kind of that gadget guy, 466 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 4: I think their offense will be better. 467 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 1: So I think this probably is could be a toss 468 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 1: up game. 469 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 4: I think I'm actually leaning towards the total and betting 470 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 4: the over more so than even DC. 471 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 1: They're the right play. 472 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,439 Speaker 4: But I think that you could see some more offense 473 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,800 Speaker 4: then you've seen out of Tampa in the first two games, 474 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 4: more so like the last game and DC, their defense 475 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 4: proved not to be quite as strong as we thought 476 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:08,679 Speaker 4: it was. 477 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 1: The Guardians now. 478 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 4: We see are just really bad on offense, and you know, 479 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 4: under ten points two weeks in a row. So I 480 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 4: don't think that I think Tampa Bay kind of turning 481 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 4: it around. I think it could be another game similar 482 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 4: to what we saw with them against Houston last week. 483 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: So I like the values on the Tampa Bay side. 484 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 4: Jalen Tolliver he ran one hundred percent of the routes, 485 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 4: so did Daniel Williams last week, and Reese Horn ran 486 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 4: ninety six percent. 487 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,160 Speaker 1: They also could get Nick Trusdell back. 488 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:39,199 Speaker 4: So I like Quentin Flowers and and Aaron Murray. I 489 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 4: think that you might see some surprising offense out of 490 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 4: them as they kind of get it together. 491 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:48,320 Speaker 5: And raybond to your point about the over potentially having 492 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 5: some value here. Tampa Bay, I think is pretty clearly 493 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 5: the worst defense in the league, if not the worst, 494 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 5: you know, one of the two or three worst for 495 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 5: the season. They are last in the league, which is 496 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,880 Speaker 5: one interception in three sound so teams have really been 497 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 5: able to move the ball against them. And then you know, 498 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,880 Speaker 5: on on the flip side, they have shown the ability 499 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 5: to move the ball, even though they don't always score 500 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 5: points on it, but you know, the ability to move 501 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 5: to accumulate yards in the end that tends to result 502 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,879 Speaker 5: in points. All right, let's talk about the futures market 503 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 5: right now. If you look at FanDuel, you see the 504 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 5: Roughnecks at two to one, the DC Defenders plus three fifty, 505 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 5: the battle Hawks plus four fifty. We were all three 506 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 5: on them last week at ten to one, So great 507 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 5: value there. The Renegades plus five fifty, the Wildcats ten 508 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 5: to one, Guardians twelve to one, Dragons eighteen to one, 509 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 5: Vipers twenty to one. 510 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 2: Sean, anything there catch your eye. 511 00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say Wildcats at ten to one, just 512 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 3: because of the uncertainty. Like in these types of markets, 513 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 3: uncertainty is your friend, so we don't really know how 514 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 3: good they are quite yet. So Raybounds mentioned anytime you 515 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 3: can get a team over eight to one that you like, 516 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,159 Speaker 3: it does make sense. Having said that, I feel like 517 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,399 Speaker 3: we've invested enough in the futures more. I wouldn't attack 518 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 3: many more teams, but yeah, Saint Louis last week at 519 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,400 Speaker 3: ten to one was pretty obvious. Nibble on LA at 520 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 3: ten to one this week, and again I think Dallas 521 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 3: at five and a half to one. You know, I 522 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 3: do think they will eventually be probably one of the 523 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:15,920 Speaker 3: top two top three teams in the league. So getting 524 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 3: them at this price there's a little bit of value. 525 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 3: But I think the future's market looks pretty good right now. 526 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 2: Sean, I hear you there with the Wildcats. I think 527 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 2: there's still a little bit of value potentially on. 528 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,400 Speaker 5: The BattleHawks at plus four fifty, but I wouldn't invest 529 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 5: much more there. And I do hear you about the Renegades. 530 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 5: They were the team favored entering the season, so some 531 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 5: value there. Rabon, what do you think? 532 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:39,679 Speaker 1: I like the Wildcats as well. 533 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,119 Speaker 4: I think the time as we talked about to invest 534 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,400 Speaker 4: in the BattleHawks was last week. 535 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,640 Speaker 1: Now they played a week opponent last week. 536 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 4: They're playing another week opponent this week, so that's kind 537 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 4: of saled. But the Wildcats at ten to one, I mean, listen, 538 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 4: they start off the season, they get blown out by twenty, 539 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 4: but it's against the Roughnecks, who look like now the 540 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,399 Speaker 4: best team in the league. And if you're looking for value, 541 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 4: as Sean's, you know, get the odds where it's more 542 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,679 Speaker 4: than the amount of teams in the league. And I 543 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 4: think that's the only one that really stands out to 544 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 4: me is the Wildcats. If you also remember in Week 545 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 4: one they were one of their teams missing their starting quarterbacks. 546 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,119 Speaker 4: So you know, since Josh Johnson has come in and 547 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 4: since they've made those changes on defense, you know, firing 548 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 4: the defensive coordinator or whatnot, they've been very competitive on defense. 549 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 4: And they played a really good Dallas team that they 550 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,520 Speaker 4: barely lost to. So it could just be kind of 551 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 4: a matter of, you know, missing a quarterback in Week one, 552 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 4: strength of schedule issue, and then they had a convincing. 553 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,920 Speaker 1: Win against what we thought was a good team last week. 554 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,640 Speaker 4: So LA is the only team I think I would 555 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 4: invest in and tend to one is a great price. 556 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, and Ray Buntier pointed out Josh Johnson, he leads 557 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 5: the league with seven point eight yards per attempt, has 558 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 5: a position best seventy six point nine PFF passing grade. 559 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:53,120 Speaker 5: So reasons to be enthusiastic about that team. All right, 560 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:58,240 Speaker 5: Favorite bets for the week, excluding anything in the futures market, Sean, 561 00:24:58,480 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 5: your favorite. 562 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 3: Bet, I'm probably in an island here, But you know, 563 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,639 Speaker 3: I think the Guardians plus seven and a half. I 564 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 3: just think there's too much value there. I can make 565 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 3: a case for them. And you know, LA, like I said, 566 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 3: I think they have the upside to be one of 567 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,120 Speaker 3: the better teams in the league. But you know, they're 568 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 3: dealing with a bunch of injuries on the offense. Like 569 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,959 Speaker 3: I mentioned, Nelson Spruce has already ruled out. They played 570 00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 3: back to back games at home, and now they have 571 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 3: to fly east, so that that could come into play here. 572 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 3: I just think it's it's a trap game, especially after 573 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 3: Week three, you know the plus five turnover margin. I 574 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 3: think it's just the market overreacting and New York. Like 575 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 3: I said week two, the really I wasn't able to 576 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 3: come up with any positive thing to say, but last 577 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,680 Speaker 3: week there were some underlying things of the offense moving 578 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 3: the ball. I think they will be able to put 579 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 3: up points here and at least keep it close enough 580 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 3: to cover the plus and a half points spread at home. 581 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 2: Raybon, what about. 582 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 4: You Roughnecks Renegades over fifty and a half. I mean, 583 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 4: these are two of the better offenses in the league, 584 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 4: and I think that the Roughnecks are going to make 585 00:25:57,320 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 4: the opponent's score points. 586 00:25:58,240 --> 00:25:59,159 Speaker 1: And I think Dallas can do it. 587 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 4: Even if they play with a floppy We've seen them 588 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 4: still put up some big numbers. Landry Jones can get 589 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 4: the ball down the fields. That's when positive about him. 590 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 4: So like the over and that game. 591 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,640 Speaker 5: I like that one as well. This is still retroactive, 592 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 5: but I still like the DC Defenders. Obviously it's not 593 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:14,879 Speaker 5: as good as when they were one point underdogs, but 594 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 5: I would still bet them at minus two and a 595 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 5: half on the road against the Vipers. I think it's 596 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,439 Speaker 5: a good bounce back spot for them, all right. That 597 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 5: is going to do it For this episode of the 598 00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 5: Action Network podcast. You can follow Sean, Chris and Me 599 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,360 Speaker 5: in the Action Network app at the Underscore odds maker 600 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 5: Chris Raybond and matt etha Oracle. Use the app to 601 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 5: get real time odds and track your bets for free. 602 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 5: Check out the rest of our episodes and live shows 603 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 5: this week. Please subscribe to and rate and review the 604 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 5: show on Apple Podcasts Radio dot com or wherever you 605 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 5: get your podcasts and don't forget. You can listen and 606 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 5: download on Spotify. See you again next episode. 607 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 2: We're finished talking