WEBVTT - Monologue: Anthropic Slows Down

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<v Speaker 1>Hello and welcome to this week's Better Offline Monologue, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>your host Ed Zittroth. On Wednesday night, Anthropix Q3 numbers

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<v Speaker 1>dropped through leaks from meetings with investors in preparation for

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<v Speaker 1>its IPO, and boosters have been packing their lunches like

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<v Speaker 1>they're Bud Dwyer on the way to a press conference. Why? Why?

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<v Speaker 1>because despite hitting $ 16. 8 billion in revenue, sales only grew

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<v Speaker 1>by 46% quarter over quarter, which might seem like a lot,

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<v Speaker 1>but Anthropic's entire sales pitch to investors and the general

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<v Speaker 1>public was that its revenues were eternally parabolic, and based

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<v Speaker 1>on the oinking and squawking from Twitter, the expectation was

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<v Speaker 1>that it would hit $ 20 billion or more for the quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>Another reason the Hogs are so upset is that Anthropic

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<v Speaker 1>neglected to include a new annualized run rate figure. A

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<v Speaker 1>made-up number derived from multiplying, in most cases, a trailing

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<v Speaker 1>28-day period's worth of revenues by 13, specifically to make

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<v Speaker 1>the company's revenues seem bigger and extrapolate growth in what

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<v Speaker 1>I'd describe as a deeply deceptive way. The reason Anthropic

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<v Speaker 1>neglected to do so is that it's likely that the

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<v Speaker 1>number was lower than boosters expected. A few months ago,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg and others reported that said run rate had hit

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<v Speaker 1>$ 65 billion at the end of July. which means that

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<v Speaker 1>the expectations had them set anywhere from $ 75 billion to

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<v Speaker 1>$ 90 billion, though I should add that these numbers are

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<v Speaker 1>all complete bullshit, and none of these articles ever explain

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<v Speaker 1>how the number was derived and over what period it

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<v Speaker 1>referred to. In fact, Bloomberg just says a short period, annualized.

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<v Speaker 1>It's completely fucking useless. In any case, boosters have loved

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<v Speaker 1>these big, beautiful numbers because they allowed them to express

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<v Speaker 1>anthropic's growth in terms that made things look far better

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<v Speaker 1>than they were. A few months ago, multiple outlets had

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<v Speaker 1>reported investors expected Anthropic's run rate to hit $ 100 billion

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<v Speaker 1>by the end of the year, and now many of

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<v Speaker 1>them are posting that's not going to happen with the

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<v Speaker 1>tone of someone who found out their dog is dying.

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<v Speaker 1>The leak also revealed that Anthropic had an adjusted operating

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<v Speaker 1>margin of 11% and adjusted gross margins of 85%. Adjusted

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<v Speaker 1>is a term used to describe stuff that's not up

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<v Speaker 1>to the standards of GAAP, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. because

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<v Speaker 1>it leaves out costs like stock-based compensation, R &amp; D, or, well,

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<v Speaker 1>anything the company wants to, because it's non-GAAP. Nevertheless, some

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<v Speaker 1>outlets are using this to suggest that Anthropic is approaching profitability,

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<v Speaker 1>as in it would be profitable if it wasn't for

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<v Speaker 1>all the expenses. Another wrinkle in the story was that

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<v Speaker 1>Anthropic noted that 5-7% of its revenues came from distillation.

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<v Speaker 1>as in Chinese model developers using its services to train

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<v Speaker 1>their own models, meaning that anywhere from $ 840 million to

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<v Speaker 1>$ 1. 17 billion worth of its Q3 revenues came from its

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<v Speaker 1>competitors building competing products and paying them for the privilege.

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<v Speaker 1>Anthropic recently reported that it had taken measures to reduce

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<v Speaker 1>these attacks, as they call them, by more than 90%,

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<v Speaker 1>which is good news on a competitive level, but also

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<v Speaker 1>means that its revenues have, for several years... been artificially inflated,

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<v Speaker 1>probably by billions of dollars. This all puts Anthropic in

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<v Speaker 1>kind of a bind. To match its current revenue growth,

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<v Speaker 1>it would need to grow another 53.6% or so quarter

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<v Speaker 1>over quarter, as its revenue base is now I assume

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<v Speaker 1>about 5% lower, meaning it needs about $ 25. 8 billion or

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<v Speaker 1>so in Q4. Anything less than 20 is a fucking

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<v Speaker 1>disaster by the way. And per Ramp data, 80% of

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<v Speaker 1>Anthropic and OpenAI's enterprise revenues come from the top 1%

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<v Speaker 1>of its customers, with the vast majority of those being unprofitable,

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<v Speaker 1>unsustainable AI startups, meaning that that growth will mostly have

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<v Speaker 1>to come from venture-backed money losers in perpetuity. Ramp also

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<v Speaker 1>reported last week that AI spend is falling despite rising

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<v Speaker 1>usage at exactly the wrong time for all of this

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<v Speaker 1>to be happening. And all of this times extremely poorly,

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<v Speaker 1>with an aggressive sell-off of better-off-line third-of-the-century core-weave. which has

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<v Speaker 1>now reversed somewhat because of the dunces that bet on

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<v Speaker 1>the financial markets, on NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang saying that

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<v Speaker 1>Corweave was in good financial condition and that NVIDIA did

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<v Speaker 1>not need to backstop it, despite the fact that NVIDIA

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<v Speaker 1>has already backstopped Corweave's leases and sunk billions of dollars

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<v Speaker 1>into the company. I do not see these factoids in

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<v Speaker 1>a single fucking story mentioning Jensen Huang's comments, because journalism

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<v Speaker 1>is apparently too fucking difficult for everyone. And this pablum

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<v Speaker 1>did very little to calm the bond market, despite the

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<v Speaker 1>stock bursting a little bit by about 3% as I'm

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<v Speaker 1>looking at it. Corweave's debt now trades at a yield

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<v Speaker 1>of at least 14.6%, with its worst one trading at 15.47%,

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<v Speaker 1>meaning that those closest to the actual money, the actual debt,

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<v Speaker 1>the actual, you know, payments of stuff, are pricing Corweave's

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<v Speaker 1>debt like the junkiest of the junk. I think the

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<v Speaker 1>worst of the junk is like 17-20%, so some ways

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<v Speaker 1>to run, but pretty damn junky. And as all of

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<v Speaker 1>this boiled over, Gartner released a report saying that by 2030, 80%

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<v Speaker 1>of neoclouds would have ceased operations, adding that forecasts for

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<v Speaker 1>AI revenues in the next three years were trillions of

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<v Speaker 1>dollars short of what it would take to have even

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<v Speaker 1>a 12% return on invested capital. And I must be clear,

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<v Speaker 1>the assumption that they have is that AI will make

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<v Speaker 1>$ 3. 5 trillion worth of revenue.

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<v Speaker 2>And they're still trillions of dollars off.

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<v Speaker 1>Just to be clear, AI is not even making $ 300

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<v Speaker 1>billion of annual revenue. People would know this if they

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<v Speaker 1>fucking looked, including Gartner. Gartner has the resources. Why is

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<v Speaker 1>no one fucking bothering? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

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<v Speaker 1>And this was mere days after a Jefferies report came

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<v Speaker 1>out that said that the most likely outcome of the

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<v Speaker 1>so-called AI boom would be a massive capital destruction in

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<v Speaker 1>the US. I just need to ask you a question.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that good? Anyway, markets in both the US and

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<v Speaker 1>Asia puked a little on all of this bad news.

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<v Speaker 1>Anthropic's growth had to be absolutely meteoric to warrant its

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<v Speaker 1>supposed demands for a $ 2 trillion valuation and to pay

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<v Speaker 1>for its $ 413 billion worth of non-cancellable contracts. This company

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<v Speaker 1>had been priced for perfection and made promises contingent on

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<v Speaker 1>achieving growth that, at some point, comes down to how

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<v Speaker 1>much venture capital money its customers can raise and continue

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<v Speaker 1>spending in ever-growing amounts for businesses that only lose money.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, much like OpenAI and Anthropix. This has been

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of fun to record. I will admit, I

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<v Speaker 1>got a little stuck with the show for a bit.

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<v Speaker 1>I hadn't been having as much fun as I wanted.

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<v Speaker 1>I realize it's because I've not been showing my fucking

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<v Speaker 1>contempt for these companies. I find all of them sickening.

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<v Speaker 1>I find the people that inflate their egos and their

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<v Speaker 1>balance sheets, at least with fake numbers, truly despicable. I

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<v Speaker 1>find it contemptuous that the so-called journalistic professionals out there

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<v Speaker 1>are still using run rates, that they're taking them seriously.

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<v Speaker 1>I see financial analysts taking them seriously as well. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't come from a finance background. I'm just a regular

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<v Speaker 1>guy who read a lot of stuff. And let me

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<v Speaker 1>tell you something. It is fucking disgraceful that the AI

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<v Speaker 1>bubble has had anything based on these fucking elf numbers,

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<v Speaker 1>this magical math of run rates. And to see the

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<v Speaker 1>hogs braying so oinkily about the fact that we didn't

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<v Speaker 1>get a new number is both vindicating and sickening. You

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<v Speaker 1>motherfuckers should actually look at the real numbers. You should

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<v Speaker 1>want real data. You shouldn't want elf numbers. You shouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>want imaginary run rates. And any journalist listening to this,

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<v Speaker 1>if you are still using run rates, you are failing

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<v Speaker 1>at your job. Make no mistake, I am not mincing

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<v Speaker 1>words here. If you're using them without a giant goddamn

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<v Speaker 1>disclaimer saying that you don't have the underlying matrices, the

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<v Speaker 1>underlying way that they're calculated, I mean in bold and italics,

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<v Speaker 1>like a warning sign on a pack of fucking cigarettes,

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<v Speaker 1>you are failing at your job.

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<v Speaker 2>That is just the truth.

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<v Speaker 1>I know this might hurt your feelings, but your feelings

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<v Speaker 1>need to be hurt for something to fucking change. Because

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<v Speaker 1>when this explodes, it's going to be so much more

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<v Speaker 1>harmful because it got inflated on these flimsy numbers. And

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<v Speaker 1>you'll notice that everyone seems to freak out the moment

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<v Speaker 1>real numbers come into the picture. The moment we learn

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<v Speaker 1>the actual underlying financial conditions of these companies, people begin

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<v Speaker 1>to panic. In a real industry, in something that actually

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<v Speaker 1>is worth all this money, the real numbers would be

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<v Speaker 1>good news. The real numbers would show you how well

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<v Speaker 1>AI was doing. Yet whenever we get a real number,

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<v Speaker 1>it sucks. It fucking sucks. And it continues to suck.

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<v Speaker 1>It is fucking crazy. I put it in my newsletter

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<v Speaker 1>this week. It's the annualized Enron rate.

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<v Speaker 2>I love that title.

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<v Speaker 1>I put it in there, but we don't know the

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<v Speaker 1>financial profile of the vast majority of AI startups. We

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<v Speaker 1>now have, what, nearly two years of Anthropix revenues. We

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<v Speaker 1>don't have their costs for most of it. We have,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks to me, the auditive financials of OpenAI for 2024

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<v Speaker 1>and 2025. We don't have shit on perplexity or cognition.

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<v Speaker 1>Cognition's worth $ 48 billion, and we don't know anything about

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<v Speaker 1>P &amp; L. We just have fucking annualized run rates.

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<v Speaker 1>One billion annualized run rate. Who gives a fucking shit?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry for not being more eloquent about this. I know.

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<v Speaker 2>But I just can't help myself. I can't help myself.

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<v Speaker 2>For having.

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<v Speaker 1>contempt for these fucking companies and the shitty ways in

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<v Speaker 1>which journalists help inflate them, inflate their egos, inflate their

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<v Speaker 1>financial profiles, help them raise money. I have watched multiple

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<v Speaker 1>financial outlets today run cover for both Corweave and Anthropic.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not your fucking job. If you feel the instinct

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<v Speaker 1>to tell a good story when things are going badly,

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<v Speaker 1>as a journalist, you are no longer participating in journalism

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<v Speaker 1>unless you are reporting. I mean, actually reporting something. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't mean I've looked at the adjusted operating margins and

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<v Speaker 1>I found a good way of looking at it. I've

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<v Speaker 1>done some napkin maths and I've come up with a

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<v Speaker 1>new way the run rate could be good. That is

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<v Speaker 1>not journalism. It's fucking marketing. So forgive me if I'm

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit fiery about this stuff. Forgive me if

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<v Speaker 1>I'm calling people fucking idiots for doing this stuff. Forgive

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<v Speaker 1>me for saying people are not acting in a professional

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<v Speaker 1>way when they use these run rates.

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<v Speaker 2>Forgive me. Actually, don't. I don't give a fuck.

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<v Speaker 1>What I give a fuck about is the truth, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sick of hearing these fucking numbers. I am sick

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<v Speaker 1>of the ways in which journalism is holding up these companies.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not going to change a thing. And as I've said,

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<v Speaker 1>as more real numbers come out, Things will get worse

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<v Speaker 1>because the actual underlying economics of AI do not work.

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<v Speaker 2>And I know so many of you email me agreeing,

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<v Speaker 2>and I love it. I love you all. I truly do.

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<v Speaker 1>And that is a reference to the menu if you're

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<v Speaker 1>new here. And I'm just, I'm happy to have you,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm frustrated because even with this anthropic news, as

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<v Speaker 1>I look over at my terminal, I thought, oh, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>this will push it over the edge. No, call weaves

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<v Speaker 1>back up because Jensen fucking Huang said they're fine. This

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<v Speaker 1>is how dumb the markets are. And of course, journalism,

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<v Speaker 1>just copy-pasting that shit. No need to think. No need

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<v Speaker 1>to consider. No need to have an opinion or even

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<v Speaker 1>form any thought at all. Just put the story in

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<v Speaker 1>the bag. That's all it takes.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, guess what?

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<v Speaker 1>Everyone who participated in that, without exception, don't care where

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<v Speaker 1>you were, everyone who helped inflate these companies, when this

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<v Speaker 1>shit explodes, it's on you. If you're listening to this

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<v Speaker 1>and you're a journalist who's done this stuff, it's on you.

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<v Speaker 1>You can still change things. You can turn against these companies.

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<v Speaker 1>You can actually push back on the underlying rotten economics.

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<v Speaker 1>You won't. Sorry, I know you won't. And if it's

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<v Speaker 1>because your editors are telling you not to, please reach

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<v Speaker 1>out and tell me, because I'd at least like to

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<v Speaker 1>know those of you who are being muzzled. But if

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<v Speaker 1>you're not being muzzled, if your reason for using run

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<v Speaker 1>rates is because you actually think they are a useful measurement,

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<v Speaker 1>you're either ignorant or corrupt.

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<v Speaker 2>You choose. I realized that was a little damning. I

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<v Speaker 2>realized that was a little brutal.

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm going to be honest.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the show now.

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<v Speaker 1>I really let go of what made Better Off Line great,

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<v Speaker 1>which was the actual emotional connection with all of this stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>airing the frustrations I have, ad-libbing a little as I

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<v Speaker 1>have at the end of this.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll be honest.

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<v Speaker 1>I fucking love doing it. And you're going to really

0:13:07.420 --> 0:13:09.739
<v Speaker 1>hear that in the next episode. I'm joined by an

0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:13.130
<v Speaker 1>original guest of the show within the first, like, 10 episodes,

0:13:13.170 --> 0:13:16.770
<v Speaker 1>maybe less. Tom Dautin, he wrote an amazing piece of

0:13:16.809 --> 0:13:21.160
<v Speaker 1>Vanity Fair about Larry Ellison and his big, wet son, David.

0:13:21.260 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 1>And actually, Larry Ellison also has a daughter. I'm surprised

0:13:24.540 --> 0:13:27.059
<v Speaker 1>I didn't know this. Anyway, it's one of the best

0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:29.580
<v Speaker 1>interviews I've done. I think I just said interviews, but

0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:31.830
<v Speaker 1>we're going to keep going. It's one of the best

0:13:31.910 --> 0:13:33.870
<v Speaker 1>ones because I've just fucking let loose. And that's what

0:13:33.890 --> 0:13:35.609
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to do with the show going forward. Because

0:13:35.770 --> 0:13:39.590
<v Speaker 1>talking about the tech industry in this cold, calculated, ultra-financialized

0:13:39.650 --> 0:13:43.840
<v Speaker 1>way without having the disgust necessary to talk about these

0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:45.820
<v Speaker 1>companies is just kind of wasting your time.

0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:50.060
<v Speaker 2>That's a little harsh on me. Either way, I really

0:13:50.100 --> 0:13:51.100
<v Speaker 2>enjoy hearing from all of you.

0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:53.760
<v Speaker 1>Shoot me an email. Shoot me a glute on slub

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:56.469
<v Speaker 1>or a slub on glute. Those are two different social

0:13:56.510 --> 0:13:58.250
<v Speaker 1>networks and two different buttons you can hit on them.

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<v Speaker 1>And I will catch you next week. I love you all.