1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android 4 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 2: The oil forecast is fascinating to me here as we 7 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 2: go into the weekend. 8 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 3: What are we at triple A right now? 9 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: I'm just checking the average for a gallon of gas 10 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 2: three dollars and four cents, depending on where you are. 11 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:37,840 Speaker 3: I think I was in the two. 12 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 2: Seventies or something like that when I tanked up in 13 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:44,479 Speaker 2: Virginia last weekend. Barrel of oil though, is just barely 14 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 2: over fifty eight dollars, and if you listen to Mike McLoone, 15 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 2: it could be going a lot lower from here. That's 16 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 2: where we start our program with the senior commodity strategist 17 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Intelligence. 18 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 3: What a treat to have you in the nation's capital. 19 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 3: Thanks sir, having me Joe. I'm impressed you did all 20 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 3: that without a tail prompt press. There's no prompters around here. 21 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 3: We don't need those. 22 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 2: Thinking prompters. This is a gift to the consumer. I 23 00:01:07,640 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: guess if we're if we're in a bad mood, yeah, 24 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 2: at least we can tank up for a little bit less. 25 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 4: What's shocking part about that bad mood is is energy prices. 26 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,839 Speaker 4: Certainly gasoline prices have been declining. That's usually a major 27 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 4: thing for mood. The stock market's going up. Those have 28 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 4: been two major issues. Consumer sentience should be lifted. But 29 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 4: the bottom line for me is where it's going. We've 30 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 4: been bumping on that app national average gasoline price for 31 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 4: about three bucks for years now. 32 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 3: It almost always drops towards two. 33 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,559 Speaker 4: And the key thing is what stops it my base 34 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:36,320 Speaker 4: case or crude oils, it still goes to forty. 35 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 3: That's not profound. 36 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 4: It's for the last twenty years it's bottom near there 37 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 4: and we have a glut. 38 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 3: Problem is it's consensus. It still goes there. 39 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 4: But one of the key things that's pressured gasoline prices 40 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 4: again below three and down to two almost every single time. 41 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 4: We've done it, certainly in the Great Financial Crisis in 42 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 4: twenty fourteen. So the stock market has to back up 43 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 4: a little bit typically and right now it's very expensive. 44 00:01:57,280 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 4: But the key thing that's leading potentially everything is bitcoin. 45 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 3: Unfortunately, Wow, and. 46 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 2: We're going to get to bitcoin in a moment here. 47 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: I just was taken by the Goldman Sachs forecast fifty 48 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 2: two dollars a barrel in twenty twenty six. We saw 49 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:13,519 Speaker 2: fifty seven dollars. I think just yesterday, how does that 50 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 2: drive with your forecast? 51 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 3: I'm with it. The problem is it's all consensus. 52 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 4: I started making the forecast for forty dollars a barrel 53 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty two for the crowd, well, partly because 54 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 4: just knowing the trends and how it happens. And just 55 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 4: look at example, what's changed since the more than fifty 56 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,520 Speaker 4: percent of vehicle sales in China and now are evs 57 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 4: and that's where the demand polls and and incredibles, So 58 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 4: the world shifted. We bring on more with less every day. 59 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 4: It's a wonderful thing about technology. But it's the key 60 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 4: thing is it's deflationary. So I still think we're going 61 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 4: to bottom around forty. That's we've done for many times. 62 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 4: The low for this year is fifty five. That's about 63 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 4: the US break even costs based on estimates from Booberg 64 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 4: New Energy Finance. So Typically you have to get below 65 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 4: that break even cost to offset these excesses fine X. 66 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 2: On mobiles losing money below that level at some point, 67 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 2: typically yes, and then they find other ways. But typically 68 00:02:57,919 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 2: what they do is bring on more supply. I mean, 69 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 2: that's what farm is due, and then I look at 70 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 2: the upside. Maybe we get a spike towards seventy. 71 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 4: I think most traders are just hoping they get some 72 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 4: kind of reason to get a spike there. Typically it's 73 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:08,839 Speaker 4: short term so they can sell. 74 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: You know, it's an easy headline when we write about Russia, 75 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine and so forth, that the oil 76 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 2: market's keying off of this. Is there enough oil at 77 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:18,639 Speaker 2: hand for that to actually move prices? 78 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 3: Well, that's the key thing. 79 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 4: We jump on things that don't really curtail supply, like 80 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 4: all the hostels in the Middle East, they haven't really 81 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 4: hurt supply. Russia Ukraine actually increased it. It initially pumped 82 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 4: up prices, which brought on more. So I don't know 83 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 4: what it's going to take can help us. If something 84 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 4: goes nuclear we wake up here about fallout, that would 85 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 4: boost all commodities, But right now I don't see it. 86 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 4: The key thing, the bottom line is if you're bullsh 87 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 4: crude oil or things like copper, highly economic, economically sensitive 88 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 4: commodities number one pre exquisite. 89 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 3: You have to hope the US stock market goes up. 90 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 4: But there's a lot of indications that next year might 91 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 4: be the third down year since two thousand and. 92 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 3: Eight in stocks. In stocks, it's it's all kind of 93 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 3: leading that way. 94 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 2: We start talking to Mike mcglon about the stock market 95 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: as well, you're doing forecasts on stocks. 96 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 4: Well, it can't help it thing when you look get 97 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 4: these kind of commodities, particularly the ones that are very 98 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 4: sentences stock market. So here's a key fact, cruills down 99 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 4: about twenty percent. Then the year and the year that 100 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 4: the S ANDB five hundreds up almost twenty percent. So 101 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 4: just imagine if the SMB five hundred drops five ten 102 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 4: twenty percent, that's a still towards deflation. And that's it's 103 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 4: typically is unfortunate we're so correlated now that stock market's 104 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 4: so expensive, in my view, is the answer to have change. 105 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 4: You can't really talk about a lot of these commands 106 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 4: without mentioning your view on the stock market. 107 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 2: Wait, really interesting the way this ties together, and then 108 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 2: you add crypto to complete the picture here. This has 109 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:38,039 Speaker 2: been remarkable watching bitcoin specifically fall out of BED. I 110 00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 2: guess Ether has its own issues here, but this is 111 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 2: a broken chart. How is it another crypto winter? Where 112 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 2: do you go from it? I think so. I think 113 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 2: we started a bear market. Crypto is classic signs of 114 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 2: a peak. 115 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 4: What happened in twenty twenty four is classic peak sign 116 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 4: First we had the having the ETFs launch, and then 117 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:57,600 Speaker 4: mister Trump's switched from antagonist to Zelle and that helped 118 00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 4: pump up the market. But we put in pretty sneak 119 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 4: cific peaks, massive pile on nts, nts per performance, and 120 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 4: look what's changed this last year. This time last year, 121 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 4: we're bumping around one hundred thousand bigcoin. Now we're around 122 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 4: eighty seven. But the whole space is shifted over to 123 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 4: achnowledging that the Trump administration is very highly involved. 124 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 3: I mean, price is going up. 125 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 4: If you invest in space, you're helping Trump administration officials. 126 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 3: That's just a fact based on what's been happening. 127 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 4: A lot of the ogs, the techniques who are in 128 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 4: from beginning, like the fact that cryptos were away from 129 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 4: the system and now they're dependent on it. So it's 130 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 4: a key shift and then key thing. The bottom line 131 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 4: for me is unlimited supply. You mentioned ethery theorem. There 132 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 4: is now twenty seven million cryptos listed on coin marketcap 133 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 4: dot com. Wow, And the fact is in two thousand 134 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,279 Speaker 4: and nine it was one. So when people say bitcoin 135 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 4: is unlimited supply, I say, well, not really precious metals, 136 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 4: there's only four. 137 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 2: Okay, So what do you make of the sort of 138 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 2: narrative now that that ETFs broke Bitcoin, that the institutional 139 00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 2: aspect that the market was longing for was its biggest curse, classic. 140 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,039 Speaker 3: Signs of the peak. So we launched Wow. 141 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, we launched a Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto index in twenty nineteen. 142 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 4: The goal was to get to widely distimated track ETFs, 143 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 4: tracking in index and stuff. 144 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:12,720 Speaker 3: Like this in cryptos. We got that. 145 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 4: It's not tracking that index, but we got that, So 146 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 4: case clothes to me. The next key thing to look 147 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 4: forward to is we have to purge some of these 148 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 4: millions of cryptos attract nothing and are worth billions of dollars. 149 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 4: Get those flushed out, and then we can come to 150 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 4: a bottom. So that's my base case right now. The 151 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 4: key thing is we're so much more correlated and attached 152 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 4: to the stock market. Now, to me, it might bring 153 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 4: down the entire system. So I'm really afraid bitcom might 154 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 4: lead to a grinch stealing Christmas. 155 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 2: So this is my question here, because the huge sell 156 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 2: off we saw in stocks last week was blamed at 157 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 2: least the real shift and sentiment on what was happening 158 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:45,599 Speaker 2: in the crypto market. 159 00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 3: Bitcoin led stocks lower. 160 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 2: Again, that was not supposed to be the way this 161 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,840 Speaker 2: decentralized currency or what commodity or whatever you want to 162 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 2: call it was supposed to work. If that's the case, 163 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,279 Speaker 2: how are you factoring in the impact on the stock 164 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 2: market or is that partly why you have exact down 165 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 2: year in your forecast? 166 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 3: It stems from crypto exactly. 167 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 4: The key ratio I love watching is the bitcoin to 168 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 4: gold cross, the ounces of gold per one bitcoin haits collapsed. 169 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 4: It's been a great leading indicator. Right now it's about 170 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 4: twenty one. When Trunk got elected, it was about forty. 171 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 4: So that's broken down. But the fact in space is 172 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,600 Speaker 4: it's all tilted downward. I don't know what stops it. 173 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 4: And the key thing I like to point is you 174 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 4: have to figure out, Okay, as it bottom. 175 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 3: The day that the Fed switched back. 176 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 4: The expectations for a full cut in December was the 177 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 4: day that bitcoin reached eighty on last Friday, So look 178 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 4: at that trend. So I look at it is you 179 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 4: have to watch it and I don't. Here's the bottom 180 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 4: line is, typically bitcoin needs a rising stock market and 181 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 4: low volatility to go up. 182 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 3: It's almost been coordinated. 183 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 4: But now one hundred and twenty day volatility on the 184 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 4: s TOB five hundred is the lowest if it's the 185 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 4: end of the year basis since twenty seventeen. So buried 186 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 4: stock market volatility means there's only room for it to 187 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 4: go up in next year. 188 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 2: So it sounds like your short bitcoin, your gold call 189 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 2: was a big one. We're at forty one sixty three, 190 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 2: it's up twenty three dollars an ounce right now. Is 191 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 2: this as high as we're going? 192 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 4: That's the key thing. It's nice to get that one right. 193 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 4: But to be honest, Joe, I had to take the pain. 194 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 4: I started speaking. I think it was going above two thousand, 195 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 4: started in two thousands, twenty twenty, and then when Russia 196 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 4: invaded Ukraine. Ifig, it's just a matter of time, but 197 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 4: I had to get beat on that forever finally did. 198 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 3: The problem is now I have to switch. 199 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 4: Over from my technical and to my fund I'm under 200 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 4: So my fund I had to my risk manager had 201 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 4: and it's so far stretched versus a sixty month moving 202 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 4: average versus most moving averages that in history, getting long 203 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 4: goal from these levels is typically not work out. Well, yeah, 204 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 4: and it's never bad to say, take some profits. So 205 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 4: I'm worried when goal takes alpha and it's so expensive 206 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 4: that it means the whole system might be aving problem. 207 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 4: So to me, that's my indicator that we're overdue for down. 208 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 2: And then people start to raid the piggy bank, whether 209 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:52,680 Speaker 2: it's gold or bitcoin, to cover their losses in the 210 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 2: stock market, and this loop starts going. James, do we 211 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 2: need to sell everything? What did we just learn? Mike McGlone, 212 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 2: I don't know that. You made me feel a lot better. 213 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:01,560 Speaker 2: What are you buying in the new year? 214 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 3: Anything? Well, there's never anything wrong with good old US treasuries. 215 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 4: So I got to point out that the US ten 216 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 4: you note right out four percent in China's one point 217 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,719 Speaker 4: eight percent, all right, and they have severe deflation. We're 218 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 4: heading that way as a risk. And if bitcoin continues 219 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 4: lower into the year end. We just have a little 220 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 4: downy in stock market. We'll probably head towards that yield 221 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,319 Speaker 4: in China. Are we got to post this whole thing 222 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 4: on YouTube. That was fantastic. I'm so glad you here, 223 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 4: Mike McGlone. Happy Thanksgiving in my best of your family. 224 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 4: We love the fact that you're part of this program. 225 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence, the senior commodity strategist. With us here on 226 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 2: Balance of Power. Stay with us on Balance of Power. 227 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this. 228 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 229 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 230 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 231 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 232 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 233 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,359 Speaker 2: As we keep our eyes on the potential for a breakthrough, 234 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 2: a peace breakthrough in Ukraine. The headline on the terminal 235 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 2: Trump dispatches aids for more Ukraine talk, says no deadline 236 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 2: and that last part is important because we thought tomorrow 237 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 2: would be a deadline. The president over the weekend, suggesting 238 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:19,679 Speaker 2: that Thanksgiving would be the do or die the drop 239 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 2: dead date for Ukraine to either accept or walk away 240 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 2: from this twenty eight point now nineteen point peace plan. 241 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 2: The President sending top negotiators, including Steve Witkoff, his special envoy, 242 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 2: to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin next week. There 243 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 2: was talk at one point of President Zelenski being here 244 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 2: in Washington this week. Apparently that is not going to happen, 245 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 2: the President telling reporters on Air Force one he needs 246 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 2: a deal before a meeting. And it's where we start 247 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 2: our conversation with Eric Martin, Bloomberg's State Department and Foreign 248 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 2: policy reporter here in Washington and at the desk. 249 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 3: Eric, it's great to see you. 250 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 2: It's difficult to underscore how important this moment is for 251 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:03,079 Speaker 2: present In Zelenski, for this administration, and of course you 252 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:03,719 Speaker 2: could say for. 253 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 3: The Russians as well. 254 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 2: Where is the Secretary of State on this now nineteen 255 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: point plan, having traveled to Geneva and put some pretty 256 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 2: big changes to the document. 257 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 3: Absolutely, Joe. 258 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 5: What we've seen is Secretary Rubio being kind of the 259 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 5: bridge between and trying to negotiate and go between the 260 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 5: Russian point of view and the Ukrainian point of view 261 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 5: and speaking in Geneva on Sunday, meeting with his counterparts 262 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 5: from some European nations from Ukraine, and he spoke to 263 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 5: the press afterwards and he said that this was Sunday 264 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 5: was one of the most productive days in this entire 265 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 5: process since the Trump administration took office, and expressing optimism 266 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 5: there and an expectation that there are some important issues 267 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 5: still to work through and that they were going to 268 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 5: need additional time, but also signaling that Thursday would not 269 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 5: be a final deadline for Ukraine to accept this. We've 270 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 5: seen some indication this week that Ukraine is broadly on 271 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 5: board with this, but of course, like any negotiation, the 272 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 5: devil is in the details and those territorial concessions and 273 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 5: the proposals and the ideas around Donetsk and what happens 274 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 5: with territory that Ukraine currently controls, and Ukraine and Ukrainian 275 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 5: and European governments very concerned about the idea of seeding 276 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 5: that voluntarily to Russia as a concession as part of 277 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 5: a piece. 278 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 2: Does any of that remain in the plan or have 279 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 2: those ideas been annexed following the meeting in Geneva. 280 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 3: We still don't really know. 281 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 5: We know that the number of points has been narrowed, 282 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,319 Speaker 5: and we know that there's been a lot of discussion 283 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 5: around territory and around some of the foreignier or more 284 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 5: difficult ideas in the proposal, such as certain caps on 285 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 5: the Ukrainian army size and a prohibition on on any 286 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 5: kind of NATO expansion Ukrainian or otherwise in terms of 287 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 5: new membership in NATO, and that some of these points 288 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 5: have been discussed. But we also know that that territory 289 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 5: will ultimately be something that is decided at the leader 290 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 5: and presidential level. And we've seen Secretary Rubio a couple 291 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 5: of a couple of weeks ago when we were on 292 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 5: the ground after as meeting with G seven counterparts in Canada, 293 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 5: talking about the need to have a final proposal insight 294 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 5: or a landing zone for a final agreement insight before 295 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 5: it would make sense to have another presidential summit with 296 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 5: President Trump, not just having meetings for the sake of meetings. 297 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 2: So with these items excise, they should have said not 298 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 2: annexed from the plan here, is it now a non 299 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 2: starter for Vladimir Putin? What kind of job does witkof 300 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 2: have to sell this next week? And are we in 301 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 2: a world now, where Witkoff and maybe Kushner are working 302 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 2: the Russians, Rubio is working the Ukrainians. 303 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 5: That's a great question, Joe, And that's part of the 304 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 5: challenge here is how do you find a landing zone 305 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 5: for a peace agreement that is not mutually exclusive that 306 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 5: as you tailor this proposal and incorporate more of the 307 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 5: asks of the Ukrainians and the Europeans, that of course 308 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 5: takes it further away from things that Russia would want, 309 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 5: And trying to incorporate Russian ideas and Russian demands takes 310 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 5: it further away from what the other side wants, and 311 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 5: so have kind of this ping ponging phenomenon where you're 312 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 5: trying to find somebody that's agreeable to everyone. But as 313 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 5: I spoke about yesterday with a former ambassador to Ukraine 314 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 5: for the US, John Herbs, he was talking about the 315 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 5: fact that for Putin for so long, the goal, the 316 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 5: main goal has been political control of Ukraine. That's obviously 317 00:14:46,480 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 5: something that Ukraine is never going to seed. And so 318 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 5: can you get an agreement, a peace agreement there unless 319 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 5: the Russian objectives change, And a lot of skepticism, especially 320 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 5: on the European side, that that can be accomplished. 321 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 2: About the timeline as well, I mean, we had a 322 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 2: Thanksgiving day deadline that I realize has moved along, but 323 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: there was talk about this being done by Christmas or 324 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 2: by the end of the year. 325 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 3: Is that realistic in anyone's view? I think it really 326 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 3: depends on the. 327 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 5: Compromise and the willingness of each side or both sides 328 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 5: to engage, and that we really won't know until perhaps 329 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 5: days or weeks into the future when we see is 330 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 5: Russia really willing to compromise, Because it's important to remember 331 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 5: Russia invaded Ukraine. Yes, Russia was the aggressor here, yes, 332 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 5: And so when you talk about compromise on each side, 333 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 5: it's clear what the Ukrainians are compromising on. What is 334 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 5: Russia compromising on other than giving up its ultimate goal 335 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 5: of controlling all of Ukraine. And so that's the question 336 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 5: that still needs to be answered. 337 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 3: Well, you frame it beautifully as always. 338 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 2: Eric Martin, Bloomberg State Department reporter covers Foreign policy live 339 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 2: from Washington. It's great to see Eric, and thank you 340 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 2: for the reporting. There are big questions about Steve Whitkoff, 341 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 2: President's Special envoy following exclusive reporting here by Bloomberg in 342 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: a conversation that he had with Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin's 343 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 2: most senior foreign policy advisor. If you haven't seen the 344 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 2: transcript here, it's worth your time. It's a remarkable look 345 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 2: at least behind the curtain, at the way negotiations like 346 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 2: these transpire. His critics would find it more horrifying than that. 347 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 2: As Witkof tries to prepare the Russians to have a 348 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 2: more favorable meeting with his boss, he says, Yuri, here's 349 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 2: what I would do. This is right from the transcript. 350 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 2: Congratulate the president on the achievement of his ceasefire deal 351 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 2: in Gaza. If you're with us on Bloomberg TV or YouTube, 352 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 2: you see the transcript right there. He goes on to say, 353 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 2: make clear your respect that he's a man of peace. 354 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 2: Witkough ads, I think from that it's going to be 355 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: a really good call. They went on to talk about 356 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 2: a meeting with President Zelenski. This is the most recent 357 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 2: visit he made to the White House. Witkoff says, hey, 358 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 2: just see, you know one more thing, Zelenski's coming to 359 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:05,640 Speaker 2: the White House Friday. 360 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 3: Hushakov chuckles. He says, I know that. 361 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 2: Woodcoff says, I think it's possible we have a call 362 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 2: with your boss before that Friday meeting, and they did, 363 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 2: and it changed the course of this story. Just ask 364 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 2: President Zelenski, who was in Washington shortly after and left 365 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 2: without the Tomahawk missiles or any sort of pathway to peace. 366 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 3: That was before we got to the twenty eight point plan. 367 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 2: Now, is this just the cost of doing business or 368 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 2: is there something more afoot? The President was asked about this, 369 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 2: reporting this transcript on Air Force one last evening. 370 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 3: Here's what he said. 371 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 6: That's a standard thing, you know, because he's got to 372 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 6: sell this to Ukraine. He's going to sell Ukraine to Russia. 373 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 3: This is what he's That's what a deal maker does. 374 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 6: You got to say, look, hey want this. You've got 375 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 6: to convince him with this. You know, that's a very 376 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,719 Speaker 6: standard form of negotiation. I haven't heard it, but I 377 00:17:55,720 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 6: heard it was standard negotiation. And I would imagine he's 378 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 6: saying the same thing to you. Great, because each party 379 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 6: has to give. 380 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 7: It to. 381 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 2: Standard form of communication. It's the way deals are made. 382 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 3: He says. 383 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 2: Let's see what Heather Conley thinks with us now in Washington, 384 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 2: the non resident senior fellow at AEI, former Deputy Assistant 385 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 2: Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs. Heather, 386 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 387 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 2: Are we clutching pearls here? Or is this not the 388 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 2: way to conduct diplomacy? 389 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:34,199 Speaker 8: It is definitely not the way you conduct diplomacy with 390 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 8: an adversary who's actively working against US interests around the world. 391 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 8: I think what this captures is not We sort of 392 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 8: knew that the last person in the president's ear shapes 393 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 8: the president. We know that mister Whitcoff since his first 394 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 8: trip to Moscow in February and repeated visits as supports 395 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 8: the Russian side, we've known that too. But to see 396 00:18:56,440 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 8: it so starkly in this transcript, to understand how buddy 397 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 8: buddy and close the relationship is, it's really it works 398 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 8: so actively against US national interest and national security that 399 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 8: it's quite breathtaking. 400 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 5: Yeah. 401 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 2: Well, gosh, we know that Wikoff has spent a lot 402 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:15,360 Speaker 2: of time with Vladimir putin the ED meeting, I think 403 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 2: in excess of six hours hours. He says in this transcript, 404 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 2: make sure you tell him how much I respect him, 405 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 2: so we obviously know that they're getting along pretty well. 406 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 2: Is there some strategy here by President Trump to send 407 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 2: wikoff to be good friends with Vladimir Putin? You handle 408 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,200 Speaker 2: that side, Marco Rubio, as I was just asking Eric Martin, 409 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 2: you deal with the Ukrainians. You guys, say what you 410 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,560 Speaker 2: need to say, and I'll meet these players in the middle. 411 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,439 Speaker 8: So I think Secretary Rubio played an incredible role in 412 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 8: the Geneva meetings when again the Europeans completely blindsided by 413 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:52,360 Speaker 8: the initial twenty eight point plan, and that was very 414 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 8: important to get something in the nineteen point plan to 415 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 8: come forward. But I think Army Secretary Driscoll is now 416 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 8: the new envoy for Ukraine. 417 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 3: He was the first one to deliver it. He's now back. 418 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 8: And of course General Kellogg, who was the Special Envoy 419 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:08,919 Speaker 8: for Ukraine, is retiring in January. 420 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 3: He's out of the picture. 421 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 8: And you know, so I'm not sure where Secretary Ruvio 422 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:16,439 Speaker 8: is in this moment. 423 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 3: For the Secretary well. 424 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 8: As an acting National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, 425 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 8: he needs to be part of this conversation. 426 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 3: And I was. 427 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 8: Actually I attended the Halifax International Security Forum over the 428 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 8: weekend when Senator Rounds, Senator Shaheen had a conversation with 429 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 8: Secretary of Ruvio and it was very clear that the 430 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 8: US this was not the US planned the original twenty 431 00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:40,399 Speaker 8: eight point plan, and then. 432 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 3: He reversed that. 433 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 8: So I think it's it's unclear where Secretary Ruvio is 434 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 8: on this. 435 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 2: Jared Kushner parachute in and we've got a lot of 436 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 2: people who are dealing with a lot of different outcomes. 437 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,719 Speaker 3: Is this messy at this stage of the game, or 438 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 3: is this just the way this administration works. 439 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 8: So as much as I applaud the President trying to 440 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 8: save live and secure a peace deal for the United States, 441 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,360 Speaker 8: we have to make sure this deal protects US national 442 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 8: security interests, And I feel like that's just not even 443 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 8: part of the conversation. Eighty thousand US forces in Europe. 444 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 8: We are seeing an intensity of Russian attacks in Europe, 445 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 8: Polish railways, sabotage, drones going over US installations in Europe. 446 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 8: We have the Russians helping Maduro in Venezuela, the Iranians, 447 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 8: the North Koreans. This is bigger and we have to 448 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 8: make sure this deal protects the United States, protects our 449 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 8: allies it's not just a deal for the sake of 450 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 8: a deal, and particularly a deal that supports Russia's wow worldview, 451 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 8: A big You just connected a lot of dots. 452 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 2: There is wikof talking of Putin about Venezuela while he's 453 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 2: in the room as well. 454 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 8: See, this is the disconnect of having so many things 455 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 8: very narrowly negotiated. This is really about the future of 456 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 8: the international system. And do we want countries to be 457 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:02,719 Speaker 8: able to invade other countries, creates spheres of influences, buffer zones, 458 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:07,359 Speaker 8: or do we believe that sovereignty and territorial integrity is 459 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 8: absolutely essential in the future of the international system. 460 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:11,400 Speaker 3: That's what this fight's about. 461 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 2: Well, are you getting spooked by the idea of a 462 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 2: security guarantee in Article five type of security guarantee that 463 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 2: would involve US forces or is that the only way 464 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 2: to end this? 465 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 8: Well, and it's interesting the original twenty eight point plan 466 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 8: really did lean forward about providing Ukraine's security guarantees. Big 467 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 8: question of mark about the US involvement and that, but 468 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 8: that is the key to unlocking the piece deal. We 469 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 8: have to make Ukraine able to defend itself from future 470 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,920 Speaker 8: Russian attacks and quite frankly, if we're thinking about an 471 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 8: Article five like environment, why aren't we talking about bringing 472 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 8: Ukraine into NATO? 473 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 3: Because it's the same thing, right, logical extension, absolutely. 474 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 8: And as these attacks continue to go into Poland, into Romania, 475 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 8: quite frankly, NATO really needs to step up significantly, not 476 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 8: only to defend NATO territory, but increasingly NATO territory is 477 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 8: going to start to begin in Ukraine. 478 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 3: Tell us more about Dan Driscoll. 479 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 2: This is fascinating to me that this young Army secretary 480 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 2: with no diplomatic experience is finding himself on the other 481 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,199 Speaker 2: side of the table from the Russians. He's been the 482 00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 2: Ukraine whisperer. Apparently President Trump was very impressed by him. 483 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 2: He's got long history and went to school with I 484 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 2: believe jd Vance. 485 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 3: Is he the right man for this job? 486 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 8: Well, I think he was the accidental man because the 487 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 8: Russians Karil Dmitrov leaked the twenty eight point plan early, 488 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:42,400 Speaker 8: and Secretary Driscoll was in Ukraine to talk about drones, 489 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 8: to help Ukrainian incredible technology, to help the United States 490 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 8: really improve and adapt. It's a drone technology. And when 491 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 8: this thing began to unfold, he was the man in Kiev, 492 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 8: so I think he was just appointed and I mean 493 00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 8: going there so he had to learn what the drill 494 00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,400 Speaker 8: was and the plan was. And now absolutely I think 495 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 8: he sort of assumed the role that General Kellogg probably 496 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 8: would have. He was in Geneva with Secretary of Rubio, 497 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 8: he was in Abu Dhabi where we presented this new 498 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 8: nineteen point plan to the Russians, and now he'll be 499 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 8: going to Kiev. So he is definitely playing a critical role. 500 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 8: He was really I think transformative in thinking about how 501 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:29,119 Speaker 8: the army does acquisition and drones and absolutely considered a 502 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:33,120 Speaker 8: thought leader there. The Ukraine portfolio was not in his wheelhouse. 503 00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:37,120 Speaker 8: I think's redefining the role of secretary here. We went 504 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 8: from drone guide to diplomat well as I think we're 505 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 8: in some ways right people, right time, But you need 506 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 8: the experience, and this is what who Driscol is across 507 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 8: the table from when he's meeting with the Russians. They 508 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:55,120 Speaker 8: have decades of experience and that tends to run circles 509 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 8: around people who are pretty new to the portfolio. It's 510 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,680 Speaker 8: not that he's not delivering the message, but thirty years 511 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,879 Speaker 8: of experience dealing with the Russians really helps you across 512 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:04,359 Speaker 8: the table. 513 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 3: Fascinating. 514 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 2: You saw this incredible transcript where we started our conversation, 515 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 2: Steve Woodkoff talking to his counterpart in Russia in our 516 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 2: remaining moment. How will that color or inform the meeting 517 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,359 Speaker 2: with Vladimir Putin next week? Is this an embarrassing moment 518 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 2: or just something they consider it normal? 519 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 8: So it's a little bit of embarrassment for the Russians, 520 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 8: I mean, just to have this conversation. It's if Vladimir 521 00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 8: Putin doesn't know how to handle his relationship with President Trump. 522 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 8: I mean, so that's slightly embarrassing. But this message was here, Joe, 523 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,919 Speaker 8: this was a cry for help. Wow, to say, I 524 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 8: believe that this is now so over the top and 525 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 8: against US national security interest. Someone has got to put 526 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 8: a stop. 527 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 3: To this or at least raise great awareness LEAs the 528 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:53,919 Speaker 3: leaking of this. 529 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,120 Speaker 8: Except really it feels like it's a strong message here 530 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 8: in Washington, not so much to the Kremlin. 531 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,120 Speaker 2: Well, I'm really glad that you could join us. Let's 532 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 2: keep talking about this, come back and see us again. 533 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 2: That's Heather Conley, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, 534 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 2: stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 535 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 2: more coming up after this. 536 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 537 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 538 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: Apple Coarclay, and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 539 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 540 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:32,360 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 541 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 2: The Wednesday edition, as we slide into the holiday together 542 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 2: a ghost town here in Washington, the President, first Lady 543 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 2: at Marre a Lago, Vice President Kentucky lawmakers back home. 544 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 2: And if you're Senator Mark Kelly right now, you're living 545 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 2: your best life ever since the President called you out 546 00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,639 Speaker 2: for sedition, suggested you'll be executed, and the Pentagon launched 547 00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 2: an investigation into serious quote serious allegations of misconduct into 548 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 2: the Senator, of course, retired Navy fighter pilot and NASA astronaut. 549 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 2: No amount of intimidation or harassment will ever stop us 550 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 2: from doing our jobs. The line on the joint statement 551 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,680 Speaker 2: from Mark Kelly and the other five Democrats who made 552 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 2: this video that got everyone so upset, telling members of 553 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:26,640 Speaker 2: the military to reject what they call unlawful orders delivered 554 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 2: by this Pentagon in this administration It's gotten to the 555 00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 2: point now where Kelly's doing interviews on late night TV shows. 556 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 2: He showed up on Kimmel last evening just to rub 557 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 2: a little salt in Donald Trump's wounds. Not his favorite personality, 558 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:42,920 Speaker 2: listen to how this went. 559 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,679 Speaker 7: I've been through a lot more challenging things than this, 560 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 7: you know, and I am. What I'm worried about is 561 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 7: the is the reaction and what this transmits to the 562 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 7: military and the public, which is basically, shut up and 563 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 7: listened to that guy. 564 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 3: And that's not the way our system works. We have loyalty. 565 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 7: My oath and every oath every member of the military 566 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 7: took is loyalty to the Constitution, not to a person. 567 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 3: The FBI. 568 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:23,399 Speaker 2: Is now requesting interviews with the six lawmakers, including Kelly, 569 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:28,439 Speaker 2: which is pretty unusual since investigations in the members are 570 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: typically handled by the Office of the General Council. Not 571 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:37,160 Speaker 2: to mention the broader DJ as opposed to the FBI, 572 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 2: But while we consider the alphabet soup involved here and 573 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 2: prepared to assemble our panel, look no further than the 574 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:48,360 Speaker 2: post on x from the Secretary of Defense. Mark Kelly 575 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 2: put a similar post to what he just said there 576 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 2: on Kimmel online talks about when he was twenty two 577 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,880 Speaker 2: years old, commissioned in the United States Navy, swore an 578 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 2: oath to the Constitution, upheld that oath through flight schoolmultiple deployments, 579 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 2: thirty nine combat missions test pilot school. He goes on 580 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 2: to write about his Space missions secretary heg says tweet. 581 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 2: He says, the first he heard of these allegations. He 582 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 2: also saw the President's post, he says, saying he should 583 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 2: be arrested, hanged, and put to death. Heg Seth retweets 584 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 2: Kelly and writes, so, Captain Kelly in quotation marks, not 585 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,440 Speaker 2: only did your sedition video intentionally undercut good order and discipline, 586 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 2: but you can't even display your uniform correctly. If you're 587 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 2: with us on Bloomberg TV, you see the picture that 588 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 2: Kelly tweeted of his uniform with his medals and his ribbons. 589 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 3: Stripes. 590 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,640 Speaker 2: If you will, Hegseth writes, your medals are out of order, 591 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 2: your rose reversed. When if you are recalled to active duty, 592 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 2: I'll start with a uniform inspection. 593 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 3: This to a senator who many people refer to as 594 00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 3: a war hero. 595 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,360 Speaker 2: We assembled our panel for more on this and some 596 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 2: of the other stories coming out of the administration. Jeanie 597 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 2: Shanzino is here Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democracy Visiting fellow at 598 00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 2: Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Republican strategist Lisa Camusso Miller 599 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 2: Rock Solutions, former RNC spokesperson and host of the Friday 600 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:19,560 Speaker 2: Reporter podcast. What's going on here, Lisa, is that the 601 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:23,240 Speaker 2: way to talk to a distinguished member of the military 602 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 2: and United States Senate. 603 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:29,000 Speaker 9: This president is the one who insulted John McCain, Senator 604 00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 9: John McCain from Arizona, who was an extraordinary war hero 605 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:37,440 Speaker 9: and an extraordinary leader in the US Senate. This behavior 606 00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 9: is there has been a permission structure put in place 607 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:40,280 Speaker 9: to behave like. 608 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:41,720 Speaker 10: This over and over and over again. 609 00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 9: It is embarrassing. It is not the way the United 610 00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 9: States has behaved and should behave. And the fact that 611 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 9: this back and forth is happening on Twitter and on 612 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 9: truth social you know, shame on them and shame on 613 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,320 Speaker 9: them for behaving the way that they are because to me, 614 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 9: this is absolutely unbecoming. It's just further example of how 615 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 9: this administration is not serious. They're not behaving seriously. Unfortunately, 616 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 9: though Joe The thing that stands out to me is 617 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 9: that there are so many important issues that people care about, 618 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 9: and instead we're going back and forth about this. The 619 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:19,160 Speaker 9: only way the Democrat Party is going to get traction 620 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 9: and get attention in this noisy environment where you have 621 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 9: an administration that does non serious things is to do 622 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 9: exactly what Senator Kelly did, And that to me tells 623 00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 9: me that their fire is lit and they're ready. 624 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 3: To fight fires lit. 625 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:39,680 Speaker 2: I don't know why Captain is in quotation Marks here Genie. 626 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 2: In Pete Hegsath's post when he refers to the Sedition 627 00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 2: video and his medals being out of order, his rose reversed. 628 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 3: What should be Mark Kelly's response to this? 629 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 10: You know, what does it say, Joe that the Secretary 630 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 10: of Defense or War as he likes to call himself, 631 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 10: is most concerned about violations of uniform while his deputy 632 00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 10: is overseas negotiating or trying to help negotiate the end 633 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 10: of a war. That's what I think we are seeing. 634 00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:19,280 Speaker 10: Pete Hegseth is very concerned about his job. 635 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 3: When Signalgate occurred. 636 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,280 Speaker 10: It was Dan Driscoll who has talked about as a 637 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 10: potential replacement. He is of course, very close to Jade Vance. 638 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 10: He is overseas doing serious and important work while the 639 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 10: Secretary is home on Twitter talking about uniform violations and 640 00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 10: potentially trying to punish a war hero, an astronaut, a 641 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:48,720 Speaker 10: sitting senator for saying that members of the military should 642 00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 10: do what we know they should all do and what 643 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 10: they swore to do, which is to abide by the Constitution. 644 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 10: I think it speaks volumes about the Secretary and also 645 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 10: about FBI d Director Cash. But tell, it's like those 646 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 10: two cannot stumble over themselves fast enough to do the 647 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,000 Speaker 10: retribution work of Donald Trump. And that's what they are 648 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:13,360 Speaker 10: trying to do. And so you know, Kelly, he's just 649 00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 10: going on National TV talking about his incredible background, raising 650 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 10: his national and world profile, and breaking in contributions. I mean, 651 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,480 Speaker 10: this has strategically and politically backfired on the White House 652 00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 10: and Donald Trump. 653 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 2: Well, and of course you see people raising money on this. 654 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,040 Speaker 2: It's not what Donald Trump is worried about. By the way, 655 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 2: if you actually look at his truth social feed from 656 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,320 Speaker 2: early this morning, he was very concerned about The New 657 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,280 Speaker 2: York Times. It wasn't a post about Ukraine, it wasn't 658 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 2: about any of the stuff that we're discussing. The New 659 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,960 Speaker 2: York Times out with a story today and the headline, 660 00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,440 Speaker 2: you know, says it all. It's the first big hit job, 661 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 2: as the President would call it on his age, and 662 00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 2: I'm sure it will not be the last, as the 663 00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,920 Speaker 2: Times rights. Nearly a year into his second term, Americans 664 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 2: see Trump less than they used to. According to an 665 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 2: analysis of his schedule, Trump has fewer public events. He's 666 00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,160 Speaker 2: traveling domestically, much less than he did this point during 667 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,560 Speaker 2: his first year in office in twenty seventeen, although he's 668 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,359 Speaker 2: taking more foreign trips. They find most public appearances fall 669 00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 2: between noon and five pm on average. Remember stories like 670 00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,160 Speaker 2: these about Joe Biden, Right, the whole day ended at 671 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:25,880 Speaker 2: four o'clock or whatever it was. He also is showing 672 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 2: signs of where his battery as they refer to the 673 00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:33,240 Speaker 2: Oval Office event that began around noon on November sixth, 674 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,200 Speaker 2: when President Trump dozed off behind the Resolute desk. This 675 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:40,759 Speaker 2: is when the guy collapsed, the GLP one event they 676 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,359 Speaker 2: drilled down on when he's coming into the Oval, when 677 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 2: he's going home, his executive time, his official appearances. Lisa, 678 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,799 Speaker 2: the President didn't like any of it, and he got 679 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 2: on truth social this morning to call out the Times 680 00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,160 Speaker 2: and the reporter. They know this is wrong, he says, 681 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:01,600 Speaker 2: as is almost everything they write about me, including election results, 682 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 2: all purposely negative. This cheap rag is truly an enemy 683 00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:08,240 Speaker 2: of the people. He talks about the third rate reporter, 684 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 2: who is ugly, he says, both inside and out, and 685 00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,200 Speaker 2: goes on to talk about a day when I run 686 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,480 Speaker 2: low on energy. He says, there will be one. It 687 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 2: happens to everyone. But with a perfect physical exam and 688 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:26,160 Speaker 2: a comprehensive cognitive test just recently taken, it certainly is not. 689 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:33,080 Speaker 2: Now seems a little worked up about this, Lisa. Is 690 00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:34,360 Speaker 2: he projecting in this post? 691 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 9: Absolutely, Joe. I mean he's so thin skinned. It's embarrassing, right. 692 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,360 Speaker 9: I mean, this is a guy who should be handling 693 00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,440 Speaker 9: costs of groceries. I mean, we're going into Thanksgiving, everybody's 694 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,799 Speaker 9: talking about how expensive those things are. Instead we're talking 695 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,680 Speaker 9: about whether or not his virility is what it ought 696 00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 9: to be. It's embarrassing to me, and it's time for 697 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,680 Speaker 9: him to either get serious or cut it out. I mean, 698 00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:57,839 Speaker 9: come on, already, this is not what you expect from 699 00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:58,399 Speaker 9: the White House. 700 00:35:58,480 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 3: Criticizing the New York. 701 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,799 Speaker 9: Times, for something like this is precisely what he was 702 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,880 Speaker 9: screaming about when people were talking about Joe Biden. And 703 00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:06,200 Speaker 9: the truth is that it's fair. 704 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:07,280 Speaker 3: It's all fair. 705 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:10,960 Speaker 2: Well, you know, I just wonder if it's the beginning 706 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 2: of something bigger here, Genie. You remember when these started 707 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,800 Speaker 2: to hit the Biden administration, and then it just became 708 00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,000 Speaker 2: a pastime for some reporters to write about his age, 709 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,120 Speaker 2: whether he was getting up the big boy stairs, whether 710 00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,760 Speaker 2: he was what shoes he had on. Now we're looking 711 00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:26,880 Speaker 2: at the bruise on the hand for Trump, looking at 712 00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,880 Speaker 2: the ankles, whether he's dozing off or not. I have 713 00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,400 Speaker 2: to be honest with you, I'm not very good outside 714 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:34,960 Speaker 2: of the hours of twelve and five either, Genie. So 715 00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,480 Speaker 2: maybe this is going around, But are we going to 716 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:38,920 Speaker 2: start reading more stories like this? 717 00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:45,160 Speaker 3: We absolutely will. I mean, when you are the oldest. 718 00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:48,560 Speaker 10: President elected, this is what comes with it. I have 719 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:52,680 Speaker 10: to say, the last ten months he has been going 720 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:54,080 Speaker 10: like wildfire. 721 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:55,600 Speaker 3: You've covered him. 722 00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 10: Day in day out, Joe, he is exhaust of the 723 00:36:58,080 --> 00:36:58,720 Speaker 10: most energy. 724 00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,040 Speaker 3: It's exhausting follow. 725 00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,480 Speaker 10: Him, let alone, I'm sure to be in So I 726 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,879 Speaker 10: cut him a lot of slack on this, but absolutely 727 00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,560 Speaker 10: this is fair game for any reporter. There's been a 728 00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,239 Speaker 10: lot of discussion about the bruising, about the you know, 729 00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,239 Speaker 10: potentially sleeping. I have to admit, Joe, I've been in 730 00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,520 Speaker 10: a meeting or two where I have wanted. 731 00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:22,080 Speaker 3: To doze off. Nothing Never with you, Joe, Never with you. 732 00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:22,200 Speaker 6: No. 733 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:26,920 Speaker 10: So so you know, I give him a little slack. 734 00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,239 Speaker 10: We'll see how he does on the back end. I 735 00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,240 Speaker 10: think the more important thing is what Lisa was talking about, 736 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,399 Speaker 10: which is the things that people are dealing with, which 737 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,880 Speaker 10: is affordability, the cost of living, and how difficult it 738 00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,000 Speaker 10: is for people to make ends meet. And if he 739 00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,799 Speaker 10: focuses on lat I think all of the nodding off 740 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:44,560 Speaker 10: may be forgiven. 741 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,800 Speaker 2: Great panel today with Genie Shanzino and Lisa Kumuso Miller. 742 00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:55,440 Speaker 2: Thank you both for your insights and your humor. Thanks 743 00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,600 Speaker 2: for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure 744 00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,360 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't all read body at Apple, Spotify, 745 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,040 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 746 00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,320 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 747 00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,520 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.