1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single. 2 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 2: Best idea deep into earning season, it was amazing. Just 3 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 2: to give you a little vignette into this. We start 4 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:24,439 Speaker 2: at seven zero zero. There's a lot of preparation. You know, 5 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 2: I'm in at six point fifty two, Paul's in at 6 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 2: six fifty five. But our team's in a lot earlier, 7 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: and we know what's happening in earnings. But when Eli 8 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 2: Lilly comes out, there's literally on the Bloomberg forty headlines. 9 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 2: I'm not exaggerating. So it's sorting out which headlines matter 10 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,520 Speaker 2: across each company. The banks are pretty much cookie cutter, 11 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 2: but the other companies are very much each idiosyncratic, each 12 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 2: unique and different. And I really can't say enough about 13 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 2: the team effort to say, Okay, what man is what's important? 14 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 2: You had the history today of three M cutting her dividend, 15 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 2: You had Eli Lilly and the whole you know, zembic 16 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 2: kind of thing going on. But they're each to every 17 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 2: including the McDonald's, with a little bit of a shortfall, 18 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 2: will continue to do that. We're gonna have Anna rog 19 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 2: Ronhan in a moment on Amazon, which is very important 20 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 2: obviously to the magnificent seven. But first the distraction of Japan. 21 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 2: One of the great things about people that become executive 22 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 2: like is they started somewhere with excellence. Rebecca Patterson, known 23 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 2: from Bridgewater, known from Bessemer Trust. Well, how did she 24 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 2: get there? She's a Gator out of University of Florida, 25 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 2: absolutely prodigious. But how did she get there? She got 26 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 2: there doing foreign exchange for a small bank in New 27 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 2: York called JP Morgan. No one better to talk to 28 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 2: on yen intervention, here's Rebecca Patterson. 29 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 3: The week yen is a reflection of the broadly strong dollar. 30 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 3: The dollar is up against almost every currency around the 31 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 3: world ear to date, so you do need to think 32 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 3: about what does the strong dollar mean. The strong dollar 33 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 3: tends to be a pretty big headwind for emerging market equities. 34 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 3: So that's an area that already has idiosyncratic risk around China, 35 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:18,520 Speaker 3: but now you have this broad macro risk as well. 36 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 3: The strong dollar is the Fed's best friend if the 37 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 3: FED is trying to get inflation back down to two percent. 38 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 3: A strong dollar slows down US growth by making our 39 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 3: exports more expensive less competitive overseas. That tends to weigh 40 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 3: on manufacturing, slowing growth disinflationary, that helps the FED. So 41 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,839 Speaker 3: again back to intervention. The Fed doesn't want to help 42 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,839 Speaker 3: Japan here. The Fed wants a strong dollar, so it's 43 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 3: good for getting inflation down, it's bad for our exporters, 44 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 3: and it's bad for anyone looking at emerging markets right 45 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:51,239 Speaker 3: now for diversification. 46 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 2: Rebecca Patison there and Yen we're following as closely again 47 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 2: across a specific rim. Tanya Chen leading our coverage out 48 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 2: of Hong Kong there into our evening and their morning, 49 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 2: and much to come on this today alone Yen backed up, 50 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 2: weaker yen and particularly weaker euro yen not through the 51 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 2: intervention weakness the shock there that we saw. But I'm 52 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 2: telling you this is going the wrong way for Japan 53 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 2: right now, and really pay attention to that, particularly in 54 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 2: the East Coast into our evenings as well. Amazon will 55 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 2: be out maybe by the time you hear this, you'll 56 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,800 Speaker 2: know the Amazon earnings. I know Tim and Carroll have 57 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 2: that on Bloomberg Radio and on Android, on Apple, on 58 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 2: YouTube in the afternoon and they'll have a deep coverage 59 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 2: of it. But an agranat Bloomberg Intelligence is just excellent, honest, 60 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: and what's great about him he goes further with a juggernaut. 61 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 2: He looks not only at the cloud and the ad business, 62 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 2: but actually also looking at the cardboard box business. Here's 63 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 2: Anirograna on Amazon. 64 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 4: Both Google and Microsoft reported really strong cloud now. But 65 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 4: from Amazon's point of view, there are a couple of things. 66 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 4: It is much bigger than the other two companies in 67 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 4: terms of size, so the relative growth rates, you know, 68 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 4: are matter. Second thing, they don't have a relationship like 69 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 4: Microsoft has with open Ai, which means they are not 70 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 4: a direct beneficiary of people using more consumer apps on 71 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 4: their phones. So for them, it's the enterprise use of AI, 72 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 4: which actually takes a little bit longer than the consumer 73 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 4: side of things. 74 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 2: Enter Agrana there on Amazon. Of course, he and man 75 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 2: Deep Singh have been such great help to us. Single 76 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 2: best idea and it's just two of the voices. And 77 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 2: today I really want to underscore we didn't place them 78 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:44,720 Speaker 2: here into our two ideas. But Daniel Paris pe rs 79 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 2: Daniel Paris. The book is the ownership dividend. I divide 80 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 2: books into different ways. One are easy reads, one are 81 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: you know, accessible light reads, and then there's books that 82 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 2: are I mean, I mean from Routledge The Daniel Paris 83 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 2: book is something like one hundred and sixty pages. It 84 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 2: reads like it's formed pages because it's really academic, really dense, 85 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 2: lots of footnotes and lots of fancy scattered charts. This 86 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 2: is a pro book on dividends and total return, the 87 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 2: ownership dividend, the coming paradigm shift in the US stock market, 88 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 2: and Daniel Paris on today really emphasizing the dividend change 89 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 2: at Microsoft and at Google. Maybe we'll see that from 90 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 2: Amazon with a new dividend, their dividend free, or maybe 91 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 2: some dividend announcements and buyback announcements from Apple as well. 92 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 2: A single best idea. We're out on Apple car Play 93 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 2: on Android Play as well. Good morning to all of you. 94 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 2: It's free out there. This is just a new technology 95 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,720 Speaker 2: to get into your car, particularly newer cars. It's really 96 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 2: a minimal wire free and all that on Apple car 97 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 2: Play and also on YouTube. I want to make a 98 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 2: note program note. We now have available the entire show 99 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 2: two hours, fifty six minutes. You'll see this three ish 100 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 2: pm of the day of the show. We had a 101 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 2: huge request for this. We're thrilled to bring in. Now 102 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 2: the entire show replayed and then there's this six minute 103 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 2: podcast out on Apple Podcasts Into Business News. Thank you 104 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 2: for subscribing to Single Best Idea