1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Gargy Shawdry of Black 10 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 2: Rock writing this mid term volatility aside, this will create 11 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,760 Speaker 2: a fabulous opportunity for investors to move out from cash 12 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 2: and lock in yield and the belly of the curve 13 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 2: for equities. A brief pullback is likely, but eventually a 14 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 2: rake Cunning cycle that ends without a recession tends to 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: bode well for stocks. Gage joined us for more. Gargiy, 16 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: Good monic, Good morning. Imagine you've had tons of cours. 17 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 2: I'm sitting in cash, the cup fifty on where they're 18 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 2: going again and again, again and again? 19 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 3: What do I take? What do I take? 20 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 4: You step out of cash? I think that the signs 21 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 4: that this FED meeting showed us all beyond the twenty 22 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 4: five to fifty debate hawkish not hawkish, et cetera. Once 23 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 4: we go past all of that, I think one thing 24 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 4: is clear. This is a FED that is going to 25 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 4: that is willing to surprise the market, that is going 26 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 4: to do what it thinks it needs to do to 27 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 4: make sure that the labor market and the broader economy 28 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 4: remains strong. And they will cut fifty basis points and 29 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 4: maybe another fifty more or perhaps even more than that 30 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 4: if they need to while growth remains solid. Right, while 31 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 4: growth remains at two percent, And that is an amazing 32 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 4: opportunity to own risk assets. So own risk assets in 33 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 4: the fixingcume markets, own fixed assets or risk assets in 34 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 4: the equity markets. I think seasonalities can get a little 35 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 4: bit tough, but this is a great time to step 36 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 4: out of cash. 37 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: Let's break cut the asset classes. To start with bonds. 38 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 2: We'll move to stocks in fixed income. When you say 39 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 2: take risk in fixed in cup and bonds, what do 40 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 2: you mean? 41 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 4: So, first of all, I think making sure that you're 42 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 4: very precise about where you want to target your interest 43 00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 4: rates sensitive at your duration risk. That's really important. We've 44 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 4: been here before and talked about owning the belly of 45 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 4: the curve. What we've meant by that is really looking 46 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 4: at that three to seven year part of the curve 47 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 4: and not just owning treasuries, but owning high yield, owning 48 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 4: securitized assets, owning income, really taking this opportunity of still 49 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 4: locking in yields, especially when cashields are dropping fast, and 50 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 4: earning income in the fixed income markets. And there are 51 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 4: products that allow you to do that in an active manner, 52 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 4: in an index manner. But the time is here, the 53 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 4: time has been here, but you're not too late. 54 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: Let's have a therapy session because a lot of people 55 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: are feeling like they missed it, and a lot of 56 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 1: people feel like you know, they're watching as valuations get 57 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: that much more expensive, in stocks, in bands and working 58 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 1: right now, credit spreads tightening even more, and the heels 59 00:02:56,360 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 1: of this decision, how do you convince people after discussions 60 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: the things have gotten so frothy and so expensive that 61 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: now as things are even more expensive, it's the right 62 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 1: time to buy. 63 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 4: So okay, separating out bonds and stocks again, I think 64 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 4: for equity markets, this is a seasonally week period, we're 65 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 4: going to have a couple of risk events. We're obviously 66 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 4: going to have the election in a couple in six 67 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 4: weeks or so, but more importantly before that, we're going 68 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 4: to have earning season, and I think it could maybe 69 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 4: make sense for equities to pull back just a little bit. 70 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 4: I don't think you're supposed to step away. I think 71 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 4: you're supposed to add downside protection with buffer strategies. That's 72 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 4: what we're telling investors, or move a little bit further 73 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 4: up in quality. We've sort of told investors to stay 74 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 4: away from the small cap trade. Obviously that's doing very well. 75 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 4: It's hard for me to imagine that does well sustainably 76 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 4: for the next eight to twelve weeks. Having said that, 77 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 4: in the FIXTIONCME market, Pleace, I hear you. Yes, spreads 78 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 4: are very very tight, but I think what investors have 79 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 4: gravitated towards. If we look at fixed and come flows 80 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 4: this year, it is around yields that are available. So 81 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 4: when we compare the yields today to what we were 82 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,119 Speaker 4: getting ten years ago, yes it's come down, but it's 83 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 4: still very positive, and I think investors do want to 84 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 4: lock that in, especially if we slow down even slightly 85 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 4: from here. 86 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: You talked about some risk events, including the politics, and 87 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 1: I know Emory is going to go there a bit 88 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: in a second. There is this issue that every candidate 89 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 1: is going to promise more and more and more to 90 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 1: increase the deficit more and more and more. Does this 91 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: create something of a risk event that is longer term, 92 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: particularly for the long end of. 93 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 4: A I think it does. You've hit the nail right 94 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 4: on the head. I think that's why being very precise 95 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 4: about where you want to own duration is really important. 96 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 4: So regardless of what happens in November, regardless of who's 97 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 4: president in January, I think one thing that we can 98 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 4: be sure of is that deficits aren't coming down in 99 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 4: a rapid manner. And one of the ways in which 100 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:56,360 Speaker 4: that can play out in our markets, in the bond 101 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 4: market is really in the very long end of the curve. 102 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 4: So I was saying earlier to on about you know, 103 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 4: owning duration in that three to seven year part of 104 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 4: the curve. You kind of want to stay away from 105 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 4: them a very long and for now you're not getting 106 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 4: that additional pickup and yield, So stick in the value 107 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 4: of the curve and harvest some of the income that 108 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,159 Speaker 4: you're getting, and frankly, that's where investors are moving to 109 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,919 Speaker 4: as well. I mean, when I have client conversations, people 110 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 4: want to hear about the agg people want to hear 111 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 4: about bank people want to hear about, you know, quality equities. 112 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,039 Speaker 4: That's what we're telling them to do because that's the 113 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 4: regime for this. 114 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 5: Henrietta was just talking about how investors she's talking to you, 115 00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 5: especially those in the fixed income space, we're or interested 116 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 5: to see what happens in Washington based on the timeline. 117 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 3: If you get some of these. 118 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 5: Tax cuts three four years out or if they go 119 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 5: for say ten years, do you think it makes a difference. 120 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 4: For bond markets And I think it all makes a 121 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 4: difference absolutely. I think we're in this period for the 122 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 4: next six to eight weeks where we just won't know 123 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 4: too much. We obviously won't know the outcome, and I 124 00:05:56,279 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 4: think markets like certainty the most they want, which is 125 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 4: why I feel like over the next couple of weeks, 126 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 4: I think a little bit of a pullback despite this 127 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 4: fifty basis point cut could come. And I think that's fine. 128 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 4: You're supposed to stay invested, protect your downside. But I think, 129 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 4: of course it matters in the long term. Will it 130 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 4: matter whether we get something for four years or ten years. Absolutely, 131 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 4: I think the market can only pay attention to recruitter 132 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 4: who's you know, as you guys know likes to say this, 133 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 4: markets pay attention to one thing at a time. Right now, 134 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 4: we're paying attention to all of the amazing opportunities that 135 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 4: the FED cut has brought you. 136 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 5: Well, I know, but next we're going to be focused 137 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 5: on the election and this idea of fiscal sustainability. Henriette 138 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 5: also brought up the fact that maybe we'll see another 139 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 5: Simpson Bowls commission. Does the market care about that or 140 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,239 Speaker 5: is that just all noise and talk for now? 141 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 4: I think the market won't really focus too much on that. 142 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 4: I think we're going to focus a little bit more on, 143 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 4: you know, what is the data telling us. What are 144 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 4: some of the policies that we're going to get. What 145 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 4: are some of the ways in which the earning seasons 146 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 4: go to play out. I think that's going to be 147 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:05,799 Speaker 4: something that we're not talking about yet. We did see earnings, okay, 148 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 4: we didn't see you know, there were companies weren't doing 149 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 4: as well on revenue. So I think we have to 150 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 4: see where the companies can still find ways to cut expenses, 151 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 4: and that's something we're going to be looking at. So 152 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 4: for the near term, I think all of that is 153 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 4: going to be much more important than if we get 154 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 4: a commission, you know, twelve weeks down or twenty weeks 155 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 4: down the lane. 156 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: Can we say that for now more Strata's sake of 157 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: talking of the FED. 158 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 3: I think so. 159 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 4: I think I'm really excited that we can now focus 160 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 4: on what's really important, which is the election. No, actually, 161 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 4: because the opportunities that exist in the market for our 162 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 4: investors to be invested and have a better financial outcome. 163 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 3: Katie, thank you one of the best the US. Enjoy it. 164 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 3: Kuki Chantry of blank. 165 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 2: Rod, John Varlet now, John, it's going to see you, 166 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 2: going to be here. 167 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. What does that right cut today? 168 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 3: For this mark it? 169 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 6: I mean, I think look, rates are down ninety basis 170 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 6: points from when Lennard last reported earnings in mid June. 171 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 6: We know that demand has picked up. Toll Brothers reported 172 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 6: in August that July was this is their may through 173 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 6: a July quarter, that July was the strongest month, with 174 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 6: strength continuing into August. Other builders have said the same 175 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 6: our private builder channel checks have been very bullish. Demand 176 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 6: is better than seasonal averages at this point. 177 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 3: Things are moving in the right direction. 178 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 6: So I think that you know that, coupled with think 179 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 6: about new home sales in July up eleven percent month 180 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 6: over month to seven hundred and thirty nine thousand single 181 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 6: family starts yesterday nine hundred and ninety two thousand, up 182 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 6: sixteen percent. Activity is picking up and that's a good thing. 183 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 6: So I think demand is moving in the right direction. 184 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 2: Tell Brothers is for the fancy payper. 185 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 3: They don't need mortgages. 186 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 2: That's so cash. Can we talk about who this already helps? 187 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 2: Which build is does this ready help? 188 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 3: I think it helps all. 189 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 6: You're right now thirty percent of TOLD tolls buyers pay 190 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 6: all cash, So you could argue perhaps a little bit 191 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 6: less of stimulus there. The lower end probably benefits the most. 192 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 6: Drhort in lenar companies that really focus on that probably 193 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 6: dart in the most on that entry level first time, 194 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,600 Speaker 6: those buyers are going to have more dollars in their pocket. 195 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 6: But keep in mind that the builders have been buying 196 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 6: down mortgage rates all along, and so demand has been 197 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 6: pretty good for the public builders all throughout this kind 198 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 6: of interest rate volatility. 199 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: That's where I wanted to go. 200 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't get this market. 201 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 1: Basically, you have high rates, and that's good for home 202 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: builders because nobody can move, no one wants to sell, 203 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: so you know, if anyone actually wants to buy a home, 204 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 1: you have to build it from scratch. Lower rates help 205 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 1: them too, because lower rates are better and people can 206 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:37,400 Speaker 1: borrow money. 207 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 3: Which is it at what point is it just price 208 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 3: go up period? 209 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,839 Speaker 6: Lower rates are good for housing lease of regardless. I 210 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 6: mean I think that that's kind of where we sit now. 211 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 6: Your point's well taken, though, right. I think the lock 212 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 6: in effect that has kept people from moving in reduced 213 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 6: existing home. 214 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 3: Turnover has helped the builders, no question about it. 215 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 6: Now, lower rates are going to bring some more inventory 216 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 6: back to the market, but keep in mind eighty percent 217 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 6: of mortgages are below five percent, sixty percent of below 218 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 6: four so there is still a lock in effect. 219 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: There's this question about if lower rates unlock a great 220 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,479 Speaker 1: deal of supply from existing homes but also from potentially 221 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: home builders, won't that cause prices to potentially go down, 222 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: not up, especially if mortgage rates are still well above 223 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: the average that people are paying. Right now in their homes. 224 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 6: I think it would take an economic shock to bring 225 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 6: back a glutt of inventory. I think the inventory return 226 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 6: is going to be more sort of orderly, if you will, 227 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 6: just given that lock and effect that I talked about. 228 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 6: Now there will be more existing home inventory. But you 229 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 6: know what, that also opens the pool of potential buyers, 230 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 6: and so we think the supply demand from that standpoint 231 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 6: will still remain strong enough where prices are not going 232 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 6: to drop dramatically. 233 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 5: Jumpry, I was going to say, what do you make 234 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 5: of all this being discussed on the campaign trail, potentially 235 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 5: supply coming because of policy in Washington. 236 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 3: It's an interesting question. I think. 237 00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 6: I think the Harris campaign's head is in the right 238 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 6: spot that we need more supply, we need more housing. 239 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 6: The actual execution of that is very challenging because it 240 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,560 Speaker 6: can't be done at the federal level. It's really the 241 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 6: municipal and state and local you know kind of supply 242 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 6: constraints in terms of land development, you know, entitlement, zoning, permitting, 243 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 6: things of that nature that just can't be controlled at 244 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 6: the federal level. 245 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 3: That that's where the real problem is. 246 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 6: And so you know, while they're you know, it's a 247 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,959 Speaker 6: good idea, very hard to execute a mole. 248 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 2: So some of these incentives you hit on the campaign 249 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 2: trail you just believe ultimately going to lead to hut prices. 250 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 2: Is that fair? 251 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 6: I mean, I think, you know, putting more money in 252 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 6: people's pockets. So twenty five thousand dollars tax incentive, it 253 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 6: will help demand, couldn't push up prices a bit? Perhaps 254 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 6: I just don't see anything on the supply side really 255 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:45,199 Speaker 6: moving the needle. 256 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: At this point. What are you looking for in terms 257 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 1: of taxes as well? We talk about the salt tax 258 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 1: and what that does to property buying in places in 259 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: the Northeast. We saw people leave the Northeast in response 260 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 1: to that. Do you get the sense that if that 261 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: salt cap was removed that you'd actually get more buying 262 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 1: in those regions? 263 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 3: Yes, I think that that would certainly help. 264 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 6: That said, the offset is that there's just an in 265 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 6: migration trend in the US that's occurring because that's where 266 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 6: job growth is happening. 267 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 3: And think about the sun belop right, that's where the 268 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 3: employment growth is. 269 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 6: The weather's a little bit better, folks are moving in 270 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 6: that direction anyway. I like seasons, but going so I 271 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 6: think yes, it would certainly, it would certainly help, But 272 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 6: I think that the trend is still well ingrained. 273 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 5: So what's the number one market right now and to 274 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 5: start building. 275 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 6: It's you know, I think, look, there's great markets in Florida, 276 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 6: the Carolinas are very strong. Texas, most parts of Texas 277 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 6: are very good. 278 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 3: So really the. 279 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 6: Traditional kind of you know, golden horseshoe states are still 280 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 6: really positive. 281 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 7: Now. 282 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 6: It is market by market within each of those states, 283 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 6: but I would say generally speaking that hasn't changed. Where 284 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 6: those are where you want to be, and that's where 285 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:51,839 Speaker 6: the public builders are. 286 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 2: Just to wrap things up, the Voet's get a Mulke's 287 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 2: right now thirty six around six percent effective mulke It's rights. 288 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 2: So the average right on the which is out there 289 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 2: right now, it's just short of four percent, still quite 290 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,679 Speaker 2: a big spread there of about two hundred basis points. 291 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 2: How much of a difference does six make to the 292 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,200 Speaker 2: unlocking the lock in effect that we've seen grip this 293 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 2: housing market over the last few years. 294 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 3: I don't. 295 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 6: I don't think it moves the needle all that much 296 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 6: in the existing home side. It will help, for sure, 297 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 6: but I think you know what the builders have talked 298 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 6: about is five five and a half percent kind of 299 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 6: being the sweet spot of where they're buying rates down to. 300 00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 6: So there's no magic number, but I think that that's 301 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 6: probably a fairly good indication of where of where you 302 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 6: have to be. 303 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 2: Just quickly for people who an't formiliar when you say 304 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 2: buying rates down to, what do you mean? 305 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 3: What is that? 306 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 6: So the public builders are actually going out into the 307 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 6: mortgage market securing forward commitments to buy down mortgages are 308 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 6: below mortgage or average rates, which is allowing buyers to 309 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 6: step into homes at much more affordable levels. 310 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 2: They've been working around this for the last couple of 311 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 2: years then they've been very successful. Yeah, I know, John, 312 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:55,559 Speaker 2: Thank you, Seth. It's going to see you extra. I 313 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 2: appreciate it. Johnavala, the of ubs On, relates to the 314 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 2: housing market. Jot to us now to discuss this, Mark 315 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 2: Sandy of Moody's Analytics Mark looking forward to getting into 316 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 2: this with you. 317 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 3: So let's get to it. 318 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 2: How strong is this job's market still even with that 319 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 2: rate cup? 320 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 3: Was it even needed? Oh? 321 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 8: Yeah, no, it was needed. I mean the job market's good, 322 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 8: no doubt about it. 323 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 7: Recruiting well, a lot of jobs unemployment is very low, 324 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 7: but all the trend lines were showing softness. I mean 325 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 7: hiring us off, hours worked are down, tempt jobs are down. 326 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 7: You know, the only thing that's really kept the job 327 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 7: market together is those lay low layoffs. As you point out, 328 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 7: the UI claim suggests that continue. So that's good news, 329 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 7: but the trend lines here we are still a bit disconcerting. 330 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 7: So I think, you know, every sense in the world 331 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 7: for the Fed to start cutting interest rates now, I 332 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 7: mean more fundamentally, the Fed did what it needed to do. 333 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 7: It got us back to full employment with inflation effectively 334 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 7: at target. So if that they've hit their mandate, then 335 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 7: why a five and a half percent fund rate target? 336 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 7: I mean, I think everyone can agree. You know, a 337 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 7: lot of debate, reasonable debate about you know, what is 338 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 7: the so called neutral rate, that rate where policies neither 339 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 7: restraining or supporting growth. 340 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 8: But it's not five and a half percent. 341 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 7: So time to get that down and get that normalized 342 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 7: as fast as possible, because you know, if you keep 343 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 7: it there, something could break, and when something breaks, very 344 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 7: difficult to get that back together. 345 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: And this is the reason why recalibrate, recalibrating and recalibrated 346 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: were the words of the day yesterday when we heard j. 347 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: Powell take the stand. A real question when you say, 348 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 1: concerning trend lines in the labor market, do they fly 349 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: on the face those trends of some of the enthusiasm 350 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: that you're seeing in certain risk markets. Is people project 351 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: this strength to the future, regardless of some of the 352 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: clouds that maybe the FED is responding to. 353 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 7: Well, the markets investors are doing what they do. They forecast, 354 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 7: they're forecasting, and they're saying, hey, look, you know, before 355 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 7: the FED started cutting. 356 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 8: Rates, before the Jackson Hole speech and j Pell telling. 357 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 7: Us that he was going to cut rates, it felt disconcerting, 358 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 7: and the forecast wasn't quite as good as it is today. 359 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 8: Today forecast is much better. You know, We've got fifty 360 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 8: base point. 361 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 7: Rate cut behind us, and clearly a string of rate 362 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 7: cuts ahead of us. 363 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 8: So you do the forecast, it feels like a soft landing. 364 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 7: Therefore, I'm going to go buy stocks and going to 365 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 7: buy bond So, you know, I think it's a rational response. 366 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 8: I mean, at the end of the. 367 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 7: Day, just think about this for a second. The economy 368 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 7: is really fundamentally in a pretty good spot, and therefore, 369 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 7: the stock market should be in a pretty good spot. 370 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 7: So it's not surprising where a record highs and moving higher. 371 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 7: So I think they're consistent. I don't think they're inconsistent. 372 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: The one note of concern, perhaps you could argue in 373 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: markets right now is this idea that maybe we are 374 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: underpricing or under considering inflation. When you take a look 375 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: at gold prices just hovering near those all time highs, 376 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: and you take a look at the long end of 377 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: the yield curve continuing to increase, particularly in the thirty 378 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,360 Speaker 1: year sector this morning, this idea that maybe we are 379 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 1: going to see some uptick in inflation. Mark, are there 380 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: signs to you, and I'm looking at housing in particular 381 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,639 Speaker 1: as well as potentially other sectors, are there signs to 382 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: you where you could start to see that inflation start 383 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: to tick up? 384 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 7: No gold, Lisa, Gold, Really, that's that's what your pointing 385 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 7: to do. 386 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 8: Come on, No inflation is back in the bottle. 387 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:28,879 Speaker 3: I mean. 388 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 7: The thing that I think the most important to look 389 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 7: at inflation expectations, and there's lots of different ways of 390 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:36,639 Speaker 7: looking at that. You can look at the bond market 391 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 7: and what the implied expectations are go look at the 392 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 7: surveys that are being done by the New York Fed, 393 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 7: the Conference Board, inflation. 394 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 8: Expectations are all the way back in. 395 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 7: So, you know, as long as that remains the case, 396 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 7: and I don't see the reason why that's going to change. 397 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 7: I'm not worried about inflation and housing, absolutely not. You know, 398 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 7: I don't think that's going to be the issue here 399 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 7: going forward. I mean, if anything, in the next twelve 400 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 7: eighteen months, we should see further acceleration and the growth 401 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 7: of the cost of housing services because there's such a 402 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 7: long lag between what's going on in the rental markets 403 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 7: and when that actually shows up in the inflation measures. 404 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 7: So the next six twelve eighteen months, I think we're 405 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 7: going to see, you know, further deceleration. And you know, 406 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 7: in terms of setting monetary policy and interest rates, I 407 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 7: think you shouldn't even be focused on particularly owner's equivalent rent. 408 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,640 Speaker 7: That's the cost, the policy cost of home ownership. Lots 409 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 7: of good research coming out of the FED saying that's, 410 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,400 Speaker 7: you know, probably something you shouldn't be focused on when 411 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 7: trying to set policy, and I totally agree with that. 412 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 8: So set that aside. 413 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 7: You know, what inflation is CPI Core Inflation PCEE Cusumer 414 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 7: Exponditi of inflation. It's it's well below too. It's kind 415 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 7: of like one and a half to one point six 416 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:48,479 Speaker 7: one point seven percent, and it's been that way for 417 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 7: more than a year. So that feels like to me 418 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 7: the more salient, you know, measure of inflation, and that 419 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 7: says not only are we you know, at target, where 420 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 7: we could be beyond target. 421 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 8: So no, I'm not worried about mark. 422 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,159 Speaker 5: Inflation back in the bottle. As you say, mission accomplished 423 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 5: basically is what Jerome Powell didn't say, but basically alluded 424 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 5: to yesterday. The President's going to come out and speak 425 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 5: tonight at the Economic. 426 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 3: Club in Washington, d C. 427 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 5: He can't say that the real economy people are not 428 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,679 Speaker 5: feeling the inflation that you're talking about. 429 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 8: Yeah, no, absolutely. 430 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:25,159 Speaker 7: I mean, you know, people are still still remember the 431 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 7: run up in price back in second half of twenty 432 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 7: twenty one, twenty two into twenty three. 433 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:32,880 Speaker 8: I feel like for for staples. 434 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,879 Speaker 7: You know, for for groceries, for ranness, you know, for 435 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 7: for gasoline prices, and it's very hard to get buy 436 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 7: that psychologically. In fact, it's very interesting you talk to 437 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 7: folks and you say, you know, how you feel about 438 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 7: the economy, seeing not so good? You go, why, It's 439 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 7: almost like everyone has this one food item that they 440 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 7: buy on a regular basis that's the litmus test for everything. 441 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 7: So I was talking to one the social worker, my 442 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 7: niece the other day, and she's not feeling good about 443 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 7: the connie Go. Why she's paying a lot more for 444 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,399 Speaker 7: kubacha tea. I think it's called kubatcha tea, so you know, 445 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 7: or you know it's but yeah, sorry about that. 446 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 3: I knew I got that. 447 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,400 Speaker 7: Obviously I don't drink it, but you know, it's talking 448 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,360 Speaker 7: about words I teach, of course in classic Wharton and 449 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 7: talking to this young man and he's saying rom and 450 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 7: noodle prices. So it's it's like everyone's got this thing 451 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 7: and I get it. I get it, and so you 452 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 7: have to be sensitive to that. You can't deny that. 453 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 7: But I think the way to respond to that is say, hey, look, 454 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 7: I hear you, and these are the kinds of things 455 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 7: that we're doing to address, you know, to try to 456 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 7: get the you know, the. 457 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 8: Cost of living down for you. 458 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:43,679 Speaker 7: And I think that's what the president has to do, 459 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,439 Speaker 7: and that's what you know, the candidates have to do. 460 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 2: Max Sante, thank you, sir, with an old time clip 461 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 2: that I'll be replying repeatedly over the next several years 462 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 2: at LISTA. 463 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 3: Gould really really. 464 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 2: Max Sandy Mark appreciate it, buddy, Thank you very much. 465 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 2: This is the Bloombergs Events podcast, bringing you the best 466 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, an gio politics. You can watch the 467 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 2: show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am 468 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 2: to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, 469 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 2: Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on 470 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.