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Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday and welcome to another episode of the check podcast.

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Speaker 1: Let me give you a quick rundown. I have just

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Speaker 1: come off the air of a three hour live stream

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Speaker 1: of a watch with broadcast that I did with my

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Speaker 1: friend Chrys Saliza in collaboration with YouTube and c Span,

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Speaker 1: where we got to do live running commentary as the

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Speaker 1: President was speaking, as well as with the Democratic response.

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Speaker 1: Was a unique thing. Was essentially doing what I always

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Speaker 1: do for a stud of the Union but instead of

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Speaker 1: just job owning with a colleague as we watch before

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Speaker 1: we go on the air to get my thirty second

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Speaker 1: take ready to go post State of the Union, we

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Speaker 1: just sort of went along with it on running commentary.

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Speaker 1: So I will admit it is in some ways I've

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Speaker 1: never been You're in some ways very informed about the

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Speaker 1: speech itself. But I'll give you a rundown, so a

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Speaker 1: little bit of that. I want to go through a

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Speaker 1: few interesting different type of poll that my friend Dante Cheni,

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Speaker 1: who runs the Americans Communities Project, which is a project

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Speaker 1: that is housed inside of Michigan's University, some interesting findings

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Speaker 1: that he got in his recent survey sort of what

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Speaker 1: real populism would look like if you actually pursued a

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Speaker 1: populist agenda, and by definition, that means things that are

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Speaker 1: where there's more than fifty percent of the public is

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Speaker 1: in favor of and it's across the board whether you're

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Speaker 1: an urban or rural America. So I want to get

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Speaker 1: through that. My guest today is a gentleman by the

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Speaker 1: name of Paul Auslander, and what it really is is

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Speaker 1: it's sort of how financial planners are dealing with the

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Speaker 1: Trump economy and how to try to help people navigate

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Speaker 1: what is an unstable and uncertain economic environment. On one handed, things,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's a there's this. AI is certainly serving

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Speaker 1: as one thing. But the government's role the shaking the

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Speaker 1: confidence of the independence of the Fed. And hey, look,

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Speaker 1: plenty of you are near retirement and trying to figure out, well,

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Speaker 1: how do I manage this? And it ain't easy. So

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Speaker 1: I just thought it would be interesting. And I have

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Speaker 1: no I have no no skin in the game with

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Speaker 1: this gentleman at all. It was somebody I've been reading

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Speaker 1: and following for a while, so we will have that.

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Speaker 1: I have my top my new top five list of

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Speaker 1: Senate of potential Senate flips. But I'm also going to

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Speaker 1: use it to update a few a few things and

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Speaker 1: some few competitive Senate races, including sort of what I

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Speaker 1: have you know, I think I'm I've certainly added Minnesota

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Speaker 1: to my campaign watch list. I think Michelle Tafoya in particular,

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Speaker 1: is going to make that more competitive. I think in

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Speaker 1: a year like this, if Trump is unpopular, it's going

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Speaker 1: to be hard for Republican to win a light blue

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Speaker 1: state like Minnesota. But Republicans have put another seat in play.

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Speaker 1: But Democrats also appear to have strengthened their hand a

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Speaker 1: bit since the last time I did this in both

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Speaker 1: Alaska and Maine. So with that though, let's get started

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Speaker 1: about the state of the Union. So I'm going to

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be one of those

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Speaker 1: speeches where our fragmented ecosystem. You know, if you are

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Speaker 1: deep in the magabase, you're going to love everything you saw,

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Speaker 1: and it is in the base of the party is

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Speaker 1: going to love the own the Libs moments that the President,

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Speaker 1: who was a bit low energy for most of the night,

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Speaker 1: and as Chris would point out, whenever he's reading from

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Speaker 1: a teleprompter, his energy is down. When he is just riffing,

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Speaker 1: he has more energy than when he's concentrating and trying

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Speaker 1: to read the teleprompter. And this was a night he

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Speaker 1: stayed with the teleprompter because there was a lot of stagecraft,

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Speaker 1: since this was a lot of metals that he chose

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Speaker 1: to he chose to hang out. But there was a

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Speaker 1: you know, going into the speech in theory, there were

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Speaker 1: some opportunities for him. Right this is there is a

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Speaker 1: lot of skepticism that this is a healthy economy. You see,

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Speaker 1: independents are souring. There's some questions about what is he

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Speaker 1: up to with Iran, what's going on with Ice, So

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Speaker 1: there was an opportunity to reset, opportunity for clarity on

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Speaker 1: certain issues, and potentially an opportunity to introduce some new ideas.

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Speaker 1: So what the speech I think mostly was was more

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Speaker 1: of trying to just celebrate him a little bit and

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Speaker 1: sort of celebrate the stuff that animates is based the most.

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Speaker 1: I thought starting with immigration and with the border was

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Speaker 1: the smartest way to start, because it is the one

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Speaker 1: accomplishment where he's got the largest number of folks and

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Speaker 1: the electorate who agree it is an accomplishment. Now all

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Speaker 1: of his other accomplishment he touts is not necessarily in

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Speaker 1: something that the general public agrees with. I thought his

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Speaker 1: tone in the economy couldn't have been worse if you're

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Speaker 1: a Republican on the ballot in twenty twenty six, because

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Speaker 1: he was very dismissive of the idea that this is

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Speaker 1: not a healthy economy. Essentially, it's trying to do the

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Speaker 1: Jedi mind Trigg. This is an amazing economy. It's the

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Speaker 1: greatest economy ever. It's going like gangbusters. Never before has

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Speaker 1: anybody seen right, and when you hear the never before

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Speaker 1: that should be a trigger like, oh, he's making something up, right.

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Speaker 1: There's a couple of trigger phrases when he says when

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Speaker 1: he repeats dialogue and quotes somebody supposedly talking to him,

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Speaker 1: and it begins with the word sir, you know it's

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Speaker 1: something that's never been said, and that he made up

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Speaker 1: the anecdote. The other trigger phrase is never before seen,

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Speaker 1: you know. And I think on the economy he really

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Speaker 1: whift and then you really noticed it, not at when

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Speaker 1: you heard the Democratic response by abadil Spenberg, who I

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Speaker 1: think did as good of a job as you can

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Speaker 1: in that situation. Generally those are really well crafted speech,

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Speaker 1: and I'll get to that in a few minutes, but

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Speaker 1: in general, I think he really whipt in the economy.

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Speaker 1: The interesting decision he made was to and this isn't

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Speaker 1: the worst idea if you're unpopular, which is you hide

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Speaker 1: behind everybody else, you try to get some reflected glory.

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Speaker 1: It started, of course with the Olympic hockey team, and

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Speaker 1: boy he sat. I mean, I think we went a

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Speaker 1: good ten minutes with the Olympic hockey team at the

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Speaker 1: State of the Union, and in fact he it is

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Speaker 1: where he began what turned into his own little awards show.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this was the Kennedy I think he gave

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Speaker 1: out more awards at that State of the Union than

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Speaker 1: he did when he hosted the Kennedy Excuse me, the

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Speaker 1: Trump Kennedy Center Honors, I guess is what he's going

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Speaker 1: to refer to it now. But it started with giving

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Speaker 1: the Presidential Medal of Freedom immediately, which let me say

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Speaker 1: a word about these awards, because these are incredibly these

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Speaker 1: are amazing honors to receive the Medal of Honor in

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Speaker 1: particular right the highest award you can receive as an

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Speaker 1: enlisted member of the military. And he handed up too.

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Speaker 1: Last night, he handed out a purple heart, which not

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Speaker 1: to pick at knits here, it's not one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: clear that if you weren't in combat that you should

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Speaker 1: get a purple heart. That it was a different type

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Speaker 1: of award. But he wanted to give up. He wanted

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Speaker 1: to give an award to the National guardsmen that lost

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Speaker 1: their life and the National guardsmen who survived the attack,

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Speaker 1: and of course he did the present. Here's the thing

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Speaker 1: about it is, these are incredible honors. The ceremonies where

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Speaker 1: these are normal, these sort of the traditional ceremonies for

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Speaker 1: Medal of Honor where you spend a good ten minutes

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Speaker 1: getting to know the recipient, getting to know the battle itself,

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Speaker 1: and he he's sort of short circuit. I mean, he

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Speaker 1: told the longer story in the Venezuela story, but he

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Speaker 1: kind of short shrifted the Korean War veteran a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And again, I don't want to take away these are

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Speaker 1: incredible honors for these for these gentlemen. And you know,

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Speaker 1: by the way, with a son in Dallas, now, I

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Speaker 1: think I've gotten to see the Medal of Honor Museum

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Speaker 1: and it's amazing something. By the way, it's a gift

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Speaker 1: of the Jones family, Jerry Jones, Charlotte Jones, Stephen Jones.

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Speaker 1: It is a terrific I love the fact that they

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Speaker 1: put it in the complex with AT and T Stadium,

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Speaker 1: because look, you know, sometimes museums as destinations don't always

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Speaker 1: get gawkers. But if you're going to be hanging out

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Speaker 1: and tailgating for eight hours at a Cowboys game, I'd

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Speaker 1: love for you to take thirty minutes take your son

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Speaker 1: through the Medal of Honor Museum. So I think it's

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Speaker 1: a I like that I like, you know, let's take

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Speaker 1: let's nothing wrong with using a football game to teach

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Speaker 1: a little bit about American history, right, And the most

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Speaker 1: moving ceremonies I've witnessed are these medal of honor ceremonies

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Speaker 1: that presidents do. And I've gone to quite a few

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Speaker 1: of them, so I just because I've experienced so many

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Speaker 1: of them, and there's just such important. Look, I really

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Speaker 1: hope the White House still does the still lets these

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Speaker 1: gentlemen invite families, still has the White House celebration. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's you know, that's part of the experience for the honoree.

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Speaker 1: So I'm not going to presume that they're going to

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Speaker 1: short shircitt that. I mean, if anything, I think the

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Speaker 1: President loves himself a good event at the White House

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Speaker 1: and he loves playing hosts, so I assume he will.

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Speaker 1: But this was a little there was a I don't

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Speaker 1: think this is going to play well with there's a

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Speaker 1: bit gimmicky to sort of overload it. I mean, we've

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Speaker 1: taken something that began with Reagan State of the Unions,

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Speaker 1: where he would start to single out folks and it

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Speaker 1: and every president, you know, like everything, any good idea

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Speaker 1: comes contagious. And it's in some ways trump like everything, right.

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Speaker 1: He the words moderation has never been something Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: is about it has agreed to. He doesn't moderate his temperament,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't moderate his politics, he doesn't moderate his ego.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't moderate, right, That's just not who he is.

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Speaker 1: But this felt a little, a little gimmicky, like we

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Speaker 1: were at an awards show. But again, I you know,

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Speaker 1: I think the base loved it. I think the base

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Speaker 1: was fine with it. This is who they have come

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Speaker 1: to know and love and there and this is what

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Speaker 1: they do with Donald Trump. And I think it certainly

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Speaker 1: if you're his minders here and you wanted to keep

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Speaker 1: him from totally you know, he he did hold his

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Speaker 1: tongue a bit on the Supreme Court called it a

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Speaker 1: disappointing ruling, but he didn't personally attack any justices. I

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Speaker 1: guess we can call that a small win. The only

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Speaker 1: time he ever animated is when he sort of you know,

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Speaker 1: attacking Democrats, which again is the State of the Union

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Speaker 1: is a night where a president has an opportunity to

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Speaker 1: be president for all Americans, or you can choose to

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Speaker 1: be a political candidate. He chose to be a party

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Speaker 1: leader rather than the president. So but again it will

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Speaker 1: mask you know, his feedback loop. He will hear not

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Speaker 1: a lot of good things. And members of Congress on

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Speaker 1: the Republican side of the aisle when they the base,

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Speaker 1: they'll hear good things from the base about that speech.

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Speaker 1: So it will it might sort of keep some of

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Speaker 1: them in check. But these are the same members that

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Speaker 1: are in swing districts. Actually, the ones in swing districts,

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Speaker 1: most of them are bailing. They're not running again. But

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Speaker 1: I think it's masking the problem because he didn't speak

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Speaker 1: to the middle of the electorate. And again I go back,

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Speaker 1: it's the democratic response, which was, like I said, incredibly

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Speaker 1: well crafted. She started with messaging first and then she

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Speaker 1: introduced herself. She sort of the message was simple, you know,

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Speaker 1: is he looking out for you? Is he looking out

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Speaker 1: for your for It was a very simple message. It

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Speaker 1: was straightforward. It wasn't I think what's interesting are the

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Speaker 1: issues that because trust me, these democratic responses are very

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Speaker 1: much they're a bit micromanaged. Any of these responses when

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Speaker 1: I say democratic in this case, a democratic response, when

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Speaker 1: it's a Republican response, there's a lot of cooks in

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Speaker 1: the kitchen as far as messaging is concerned, like please

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Speaker 1: mention this issue, don't mention this issue, et cetera. Right,

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Speaker 1: And in many ways it is sort of what the

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Speaker 1: person giving the response, particularly an election year, is doing,

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Speaker 1: is basically this is what party leaders are saying, these

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Speaker 1: are the issues we're comfortable running on, by virtue of

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Speaker 1: the person they pick, and also the issue that are

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Speaker 1: thrown in there. I think the reason you pick somebody

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Speaker 1: who has just come off the trail is that you

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Speaker 1: know she's been on the front line. She's been out

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Speaker 1: there talking to people. She's, in theory right, been in

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Speaker 1: front of the voters more recently than any member of

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Speaker 1: Congress has been in front of voters. But I thought

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Speaker 1: she acquitted herself quite well. I thought it was, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the different settings you picked. This is, believe it

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Speaker 1: or not, the fourth Virginian in the twenty first century

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Speaker 1: that has given the response. Three Democrats Jim Webb, Abigail Spamberger,

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Speaker 1: and Tim Kaine, and one Republican Bob McDonald. Glenn Young

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Speaker 1: Cain never ended up giving one. H I think there

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Speaker 1: maybe we can be mildly surprised that he never made

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Speaker 1: the cut there, But it was one of those where

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Speaker 1: you're like, okay, if you're just doing the focus group,

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Speaker 1: I promise you she'd focus group better with Independence than

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Speaker 1: the President did, because I can just tell you what

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Speaker 1: issues have been popping up among Independence and where they

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Speaker 1: sour the most. So I expect, you know, these these days,

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Speaker 1: the state of the unions don't have a lot of legs.

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Speaker 1: And because the President didn't introduce many new ideas, the biggest,

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Speaker 1: sort of the freshest idea is the getting the AI

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Speaker 1: companies to essentially find their own sources of power so

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Speaker 1: that it does not fall onto you and I to

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Speaker 1: see our power bills go up because of these AI

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Speaker 1: data centers. That is one of those that's got bipartisan appeal,

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Speaker 1: and it's almost like a table stakes type of issue

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Speaker 1: to be for. I think everybody that's one of those.

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Speaker 1: You're not going to get much disagreement on that, except

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Speaker 1: from perhaps the AI companies who don't want to have

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Speaker 1: to So, like everything, the devil will be in the

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Speaker 1: details on this one and we'll see if it's something

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Speaker 1: that can that can actually get through Congress. If I

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Speaker 1: were to say the most surprising thing I heard of

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Speaker 1: substance was this rationale he was putting out there for Iran.

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Speaker 1: He at one point talked about, first of all, this

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Speaker 1: is where the contradiction comes in. This is where Iran

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Speaker 1: feels like this is a this he could be opening

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Speaker 1: a Pandora's box. So on the one hand, and he says,

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Speaker 1: we obliterated their nuclear arsenal, and everything they were doing,

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Speaker 1: we obliterated it. He said that in the speech. He

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Speaker 1: also said, if they will just promise they'll never seek

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Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon, then maybe we can do a deal.

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Speaker 1: But they can't make that promise. And then he said, look,

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Speaker 1: this regime they're making, they already have ballistic missiles that

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Speaker 1: can hit Europe and they'll soon have ballistic missiles that

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Speaker 1: can hit the United States. That sounded like a pretext.

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Speaker 1: This it rang This is saying, hey, Saddam has weapons

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Speaker 1: of mass destruction, to say Iran could have ballistic missiles

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Speaker 1: that hit the United States. North Korea already has it.

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Speaker 1: So if you're going after Iran, so are we going

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Speaker 1: to North Korean acts? But I don't think this is

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Speaker 1: going to play well with the more isolationist wing of

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Speaker 1: his base, let alone the exhausted majority that isn't crazy

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Speaker 1: about an adventure and a military adventure gone wrong here,

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Speaker 1: and I will say I do think the president is

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Speaker 1: feeling is oats on some of these, on some of

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Speaker 1: these international adventures. Right. First of all, it goes back

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Speaker 1: to his first term. A lot of people, including close

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Speaker 1: aids of his, warned him that assassinating Solamani could cause

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Speaker 1: all sorts of problems. Had minimal pushback. Then the bombing

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Speaker 1: Iran's nuclear side was going to cause wider could cause

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Speaker 1: wider problems. It didn't, So ditto and Maduro seemed to

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Speaker 1: go smoothly. Although that's another one where he is no longer.

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Speaker 1: He didn't once talk about democracy in Venezuela. It didn't

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Speaker 1: he There was not even a fig leaf. The entire

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Speaker 1: Venezuela conversation in the State of the Union was about

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Speaker 1: the oil and about Yes, he talked about her, the

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Speaker 1: new president, releasing the political prisoner of it. She's illegally

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Speaker 1: in office. This was a this was a stolen election,

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Speaker 1: as monitored by the entire free world. All of that

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Speaker 1: last election was rigged. So she is not even arguably

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Speaker 1: shouldn't be in office. But we are not talking about

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Speaker 1: any sort of democratic replacement yet. And he talks her

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Speaker 1: as if this is, you know, some sort of incredible relationship.

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Speaker 1: And at the same time he talked about the thugs

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Speaker 1: of Maduro and what that horrible regime was doing. You're

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Speaker 1: still working with the Maduro regime, mister president, and you

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Speaker 1: don't seem to be that interested in promoting democracy. I

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Speaker 1: know that's not what Marco Rubio wants. Look, he got

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Speaker 1: the president to do Venezuela because of the oil. We

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Speaker 1: know this, but I'm curious how he's going to get

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Speaker 1: the president to start to care about freedom and democracy

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Speaker 1: in Venezuela because he did not talk about it at all.

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Speaker 1: And again, now back to Iran. That was I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is the same guy that criticized Bush

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Speaker 1: and Cheney for Iraq in Afghanistan. This is the same

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Speaker 1: guy that said that Democrats were itching to start a

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Speaker 1: war with Iran, and he has now had the most

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Speaker 1: expansive pretext. I mean, Lindsey Graham was ecstatic to hear

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Speaker 1: that ballistic missiles could be a pretext to attack a ron.

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Speaker 1: So look, it is hard to imagine we were that

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Speaker 1: we would somehow not hit Iran after amassing this entire

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Speaker 1: the the arsenal that we have amassed in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: But that's one one of the things I was looking

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Speaker 1: for to see what was going to be. How is

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Speaker 1: he going to talk about Iran? And look, I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: skeptical that that, uh, because I you know, what, how

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Speaker 1: does this? What do we do next week? And what

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Speaker 1: are we bombing? Are we trying to prevent them from

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Speaker 1: getting a nuclear WEAPONO? Are we doing regime change? And

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Speaker 1: he seemed to sort of kind of offer up potentially

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Speaker 1: in all of the above. Right, he talked about the

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Speaker 1: brutality that the regime made against the protesters. So I

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Speaker 1: think there's I think how he put around out there

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Speaker 1: he left open. And then what I think is a

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Speaker 1: just a huge faux pas and is probably going to

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Speaker 1: cause the President of Mexico some political problems is that

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Speaker 1: he basically took credit. You know, it was very careful, right,

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Speaker 1: There's no doubt the US intelligence helped the Mexican government

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Speaker 1: get this cartel leader, but the president claimed credit for

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Speaker 1: it at the State of the Union, which of course

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Speaker 1: is what many people may think already in Mexico. But

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Speaker 1: it's important that this is seen as Mexican led if

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Speaker 1: you want to continue to have the will of the

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Speaker 1: people on this one, and I think to to sort

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Speaker 1: of and again he's I joke, I'd love to play

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Speaker 1: poker with Donald Trump, because I'm not you know, he's

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Speaker 1: he tells, he tells you everything. He eventually tells you everything.

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Speaker 1: And I have no doubt we played a huge role

430
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 1: in pressuring the Mexican government to do that. But to

431
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 1: keep the Mexican government credible, you can't do what he

432
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 1: did there, and that was you know, this is this

433
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: is why you know, our partnerships and our allies are

434
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: not feeling like allies these days. They feel like that

435
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 1: Trump will sell them out, throw them under the bus,

436
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: if it just to get credit or whatever it is.

437
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: But that that is one of those where I have

438
00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: a feeling there's going to be there. There's some adjuta

439
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: and I'm sure Marco Rubio is having to calm things

440
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 1: down a little bit with his Mexican counterparts on that one.

441
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: But it was a long speech. And one thing we've

442
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: learned from these speeches these days is that the people

443
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 1: who watch are usually the true believers. There are a

444
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 1: handful of hate watchers, and you know, the people in

445
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 1: the middle. Well, you have about fifteen to twenty minutes

446
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 1: at the start of the speech to talk to them.

447
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 1: And I think when you start to look at how

448
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 1: he did the speech. Yes, he celebrated the gold medal,

449
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: that was great, but did he move the needle to

450
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 1: answer the public's criticism about is he focused enough on

451
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,640
Speaker 1: the economy? Has he focused enough on bringing down costs?

452
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: And the polls indicate no, by a lot, not by

453
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 1: a little. And that speech tonight, it wasn't the reset

454
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: that I know some Republicans wanted to see. Wasn't a disaster,

455
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,439
Speaker 1: and the base is going to love it. You know

456
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: what's worse is if your base were disappointed and we're frustrated.

457
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of there's a lot of unknowns here,

458
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 1: you know, Like I said, Iran could not play well.

459
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 1: He may have opened up a problem with Mexico on

460
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 1: that front. And it's also just as likely that it

461
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 1: just it just you know, he's he's sort of Charlie

462
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: Brown's the Adults and a Charlie Brown cartoon, where outside

463
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: of his base, many Americans now here won't wah wah

464
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: wah wah wah. Right, there is an exhaustion from him

465
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 1: and from the chaos and from the constant churn. That's

466
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: why he didn't win reelection the first time. It's why

467
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 1: he lost the midterms the first time. You know what's

468
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: interesting about there is a pattern here with Donald Trump

469
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: the politician. When he's at when he's making the case

470
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: against somebody in power, he's pretty half decent politicians twenty sixteen,

471
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. When he's having to defend his policies

472
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: or make the case for himself, he struggles twenty eighteen, midterms,

473
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 1: twenty twenty and now we're seeing it again in twenty

474
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 1: twenty six. Look, it's a lot easier to be against

475
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: something than to run on something. And we know Donald

476
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: Trump would rather run against someone or something than have

477
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 1: to defend and run on something. We got a taste

478
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: of that in that speech tonight. But if this was design,

479
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: if this was supposed to fix the problems going into

480
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: the midterm and give the Republicans a message to run on,

481
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: I think in that sense this speech came up short.

482
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 1: And look it is you know, one of the things

483
00:29:52,560 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 1: about the moment we're in, and about whether this week

484
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: is titled the sixty percent Country, and why neither party

485
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: can reach it. And it's based on what my friend

486
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 1: Dante Cheney's been doing with the American Communities Project, And

487
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: what he does is he splits the electorate up by

488
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: county type. It goes through fifteen different counties. But he

489
00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: does a survey and he looks at it that way

490
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,640
Speaker 1: rather than looking at it through red and blue and independent.

491
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: You look at it sort of where people live. And

492
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 1: what's interesting is what actually unites Americans and whether they

493
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: live in the rural rural counties or where they live

494
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: in urban counties. One of the things that unites the

495
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 1: majority of the Americans is this large majorities of pose

496
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: cutting social programs to lower taxes. Only about a quarter

497
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: of Americans support that trade off. Right, Roughly three quarters

498
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: believe the government should maintain some form of safety net.

499
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:56,239
Speaker 1: So we're pro safety net. Okay, that is that is

500
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: that is a large that is the consensus. We're pro

501
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 1: safety net. We're going to have disagreements to how big

502
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: it should be, how many people should qualify, but in general,

503
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 1: if we can, the country's for it. Nearly two thirds.

504
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 1: No matter where part of the country you survey, nearly

505
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: two thirds believe the economy is rigged to advantage the

506
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 1: rich and powerful. What did Donald Trump do in the

507
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 1: State of the Union to push back on that concept?

508
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: And if anything, Abigail's Bamberger that was kind of a

509
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: punchline in hers. And this is something that unites left,

510
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 1: right and center, this feeling that this is and this

511
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 1: is the quote Epstein class campaign messaging that you've seen

512
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: Rocanna and John ossoff use. Where hey, are there rules?

513
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: You know, rich people live by one set of the

514
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: rules and the rest of us have to live by

515
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: another set of rules. Strong majorities believe the media is

516
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: more interested in making money than telling the truth. Well,

517
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: we see it now all over the place, whether it's

518
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 1: legacy cable channels who are just trying to tell you

519
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: what you want to hear in order to desperately get

520
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 1: that or you have these influencers, right, people who just

521
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: tell you what you want to hear, just sort of

522
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: dunk on the other side and fire up the base

523
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: without actually being honest and telling you how this may

524
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: have worked, this may not have worked. And roughly two thirds,

525
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 1: no matter where you live in this country, agree that

526
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: Americans have more in common than we're led to believe.

527
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: The point is imagine putting that together, you could create

528
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: a sixty percent government majority, protect the safety net, fix

529
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 1: an economy that's tilted upward, break the grip of concentrated power,

530
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: repair an information ecosystem people don't trust, and restore accountability

531
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: and government that's not friends positions. This to me is

532
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: a baseline, and it's an easy platform to run on it,

533
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 1: especially if you're an independent candidate. Now, when you start

534
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: to ask questions that include race and culture, that's where

535
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: you start to see the polarization. And that's what you

536
00:32:56,040 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: just starting to see the dividing lines. And this is

537
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: where I think I don't know whether any member of

538
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 1: the either of the two major parties can credibly make

539
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 1: a case to the middle of the electorate. Right. One

540
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: of the most stunning poll numbers I shared with you,

541
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 1: I think in the last episode, in the Washington Post

542
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: poll that showed Trump's numbers in terrible shape, Democrats were

543
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: not benefiting. When you were asking what's the most important problem?

544
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 1: Who do you trust to handle the most important problems?

545
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: It was literally a tie. The third said Trump, a

546
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: third said Democrats, and the third said neither. And which

547
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: just look at the results, right, We've been voting that

548
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: way for a while. We know who we don't want.

549
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: Every time a party gets power the next election, we

550
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,479
Speaker 1: vote them out, whether it's you know, I mean we

551
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 1: have voted out I mean. I'll put it this way.

552
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: The party in control of the House has been voted

553
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: out this century in twenty oh six, twenty ten, eighteen,

554
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 1: and twenty twenty two, and we may add a fifth time,

555
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: the fifth time in the first twenty five years of

556
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: this of this century, the Senate majority has slipped in

557
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: oh six, fourteen, twenty twenty, and twenty twenty four. Probably

558
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 1: only wanted three chance of flipping this time. And of

559
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 1: course the presidency has flipped in twenty sixteen right, twenty

560
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 1: oh eight, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, and twenty twenty four.

561
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 1: So each of these chambers, the House is sentate and

562
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 1: the president has all flipped at least four times where

563
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 1: the voters have just wanted the other party right. And

564
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: it's not necessarily they're buying what the other party is selling.

565
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,959
Speaker 1: They're just not buying what the other party was doing

566
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 1: in power. And now that we've done this so much,

567
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: the party out of power is not getting the same

568
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt that they would get previously, and

569
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: it's been diminishing benefit of the doubt. Right Trump had

570
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: this highest benefit of the doubt, and after sixteen he

571
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 1: had a much lower benefit of the doubt going into

572
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 1: twenty four Right Republicans had the highest benefit of the

573
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 1: doubt after twenty ten as congressional majorities. Then it would

574
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,840
Speaker 1: diminish even as they succeeded in twenty fourteen. Did it

575
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: with the Democrats They had the highest arguably after twenty

576
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 1: eight and even when they got it back in twenty

577
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty twenty, they didn't have the same level

578
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 1: on that front. So I have a feeling that a

579
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 1: minute an elected official, minute anybody puts a party ID

580
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 1: label next to their name that says deer R. It

581
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 1: means you have two thirds of the country that are

582
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 1: going to be skeptical to what you have to say,

583
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: and we have a quarter century of elections to prove it.

584
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: And yet you see there are some clear actual populist

585
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: issues you could be running on that would be majoritarian

586
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 1: issues fifty five to sixty five percent supporting issues. When

587
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:52,799
Speaker 1: you start to look at it, it's actually the FDR coalition, Right,

588
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,919
Speaker 1: the New Deal united urban workers, rural farmers, industrial labor,

589
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,720
Speaker 1: and large swads in the middle class around a single

590
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 1: shared premise would stabilize capitalism and make it work for

591
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: ordinary people. Now, he made a bunch of compromises that

592
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 1: look that still remained controversial, but he stayed out of

593
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 1: race and culture for the most part because he wanted

594
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: to stick to the economy and the democracy, and it

595
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 1: allowed him to essentially make big changes because he was

596
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 1: pushing issues that had the largest number of voters in

597
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 1: support of them. And that's what we haven't had this century.

598
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 1: We haven't had a president who aimed for the sixty percent.

599
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: Nobody's going to win sixty percent of the ballot box,

600
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 1: But when I was growing up, presidents wanted to have

601
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: sixty percent job writings. And basically we've only had like

602
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 1: a couple of accidental moments this century where we've had

603
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,799
Speaker 1: presidents get over sixty Obama for a brief period and

604
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 1: w right after nine to eleven. But we haven't had

605
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: it really at all beyond a couple of like blips

606
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:02,360
Speaker 1: and those two presidencies. It was a regular feature of

607
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 1: Clinton's towards the end of Reagan's towards the end not

608
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: at any of the presidents of the seventies. I will

609
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 1: grant you that. But when you strive for sixty, you're

610
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: gonna win over the middle. And I tell you I

611
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 1: look at it this way. I think the lack of

612
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 1: credibility that both parties right now have for being for

613
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 1: being able to deliver on the problems they claim they

614
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,040
Speaker 1: can fix, on the fixes to the problems that are

615
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 1: out there, this is why I think there's a moment

616
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 1: here for, you know, to shed the party label. And

617
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 1: when you look at when you look at these cross currents,

618
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,720
Speaker 1: in many ways, the more credible salesperson in this country

619
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 1: is likely to be somebody who left one of the

620
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: two parties and declared their independence. And if you want

621
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: credibility to try to get your message out there, in

622
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 1: some ways, not being associated with one of the two

623
00:37:55,719 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 1: major parties right now might weirdly be an advantage. Look,

624
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 1: there's no doubt I think the Democrats are poised to

625
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 1: have a really strong midterm year because you don't have

626
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: to be for anything in a midterm. You can just

627
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 1: be against. The question is and look, and if you

628
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 1: look at the Democratic response by Governor Spamburger, she sort

629
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 1: of showed you you can. You don't really have to

630
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: be prescriptive to have a pretty what comes across as

631
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 1: a robust agenda and a robust platform to win office. Obviously,

632
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,239
Speaker 1: the real challenge is going to be the next presidential

633
00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:39,200
Speaker 1: in twenty eight. But I just look at all this

634
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 1: survey downa and you see there's an opportunity there for

635
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 1: an outsider to sort of to essentially go class and

636
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:55,920
Speaker 1: dump the culture right, a good old fashioned class politics

637
00:38:55,920 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 1: here the middle and working class versus the rich and elite.

638
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 1: That's a majority that's fairly easy to put together if

639
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: you're single mindedly focused on it. It's sitting there to

640
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: be to be rallied. The opportunity is there. These poll

641
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,919
Speaker 1: numbers from the American Communities Project show it. The poll

642
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:24,919
Speaker 1: numbers that you see in the most recent Washington Post

643
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 1: episodes show it. It's there. The question is, you know,

644
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 1: are there are there any current elected officials to see

645
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: the moment and say, you know what, I'm gonna shit,

646
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna declare my independence from talking points and declare

647
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 1: my independence from from from you know, being forced into

648
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 1: a blue box or a red box. The country just

649
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 1: wants some stability and some common sense and cut down

650
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 1: the chaos and cut down the divisiveness. That's all they wanted.

651
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:01,439
Speaker 1: That's all they wanted from Joe Biden. Right, That's why

652
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:04,759
Speaker 1: he ended up, That's why he did win in twenty twenty.

653
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 1: And in some ways, Donald Trump is conducting a presidency

654
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:13,359
Speaker 1: a bit more chaotic than his first one, because he's

655
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 1: already got lower approval ratings than he did in that

656
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 1: first in some ways the first term. You know, it's funny.

657
00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 1: These swing voters that he won over in twenty twenty four,

658
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 1: including younger voters and Latino voters, they weren't emphatic Trump supporters.

659
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 1: They just decided they didn't. They wanted to change direction

660
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 1: from what Biden and Harris did, and Trump thought they

661
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 1: became permanent members of his coalition. Well, they have left,

662
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 1: big time, big lee, as the President might say, And

663
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 1: it's because I believe they thought they were voting for

664
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 1: first term Trump and instead they got a whole different

665
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 1: kind of Donald Trump, one that's a little less, a

666
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 1: little more unfiltered, and even more unrestrained than he felt

667
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 1: in the first term. So ultimately, I think the best

668
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 1: time to gauge, right, be careful in the State of

669
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 1: the Union polling. By the way, if you see any

670
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 1: among speech watchers, well, among speech watchers, it's going to

671
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 1: skew towards the president. It's the polling in a week

672
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 1: that will tell us if this had any impact. I'm skeptical,

673
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:29,799
Speaker 1: but I'm a data guy, so I'll wait to see

674
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 1: the data. All right, Let's sneak at a break here

675
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:38,319
Speaker 1: when we come back my conversation with Paul Oslander. He's

676
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 1: a sea bridge and he's any any basically advises people personal,

677
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 1: people in the private you know, the personal private and

678
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 1: equity fund or any of that stuff. But it's some straightforward,

679
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 1: you know, brutally honest advice. How do you navigate, how

680
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: do you plan for your own RETI hirement? How do

681
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: you plan with savings with this chaotic Trump economy. It's

682
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: not easy. And this guy's on the front lines having

683
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 1: to give advice every day of the week, whether it's

684
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 1: when do you take social security? All of those things.

685
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 1: And look, politics isn't have been infused into everything, including

686
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: people's personal savings, plans for retirement, in college, et cetera.

687
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 1: So with that, let's sneak in a break. We'll come

688
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 1: back with my conversation and then I'll see on the

689
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:33,640
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700
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714
00:43:52,880 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

715
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 1: personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away.

716
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in

717
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 1: the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow, myself

718
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:08,360
Speaker 1: sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to

719
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 1: pay for college and lo and behold, my dad had

720
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,800
Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

721
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 1: but it was important at the time, and it's why

722
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 1: I was able to go to college. Little did he

723
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 1: know how important that would be in that moment. Well,

724
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 1: guess what. That's why I am here to tell you

725
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 1: about Etho's life. They can provide you with peace of

726
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst

727
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 1: comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes

728
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:40,320
Speaker 1: getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect

729
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 1: your family's future in minutes, not months. There's no complicated

730
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Speaker 1: process and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical

731
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 1: exam require you just answer a few health questions online.

732
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 1: You can get a quote in as little as ten minutes,

733
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:56,280
Speaker 1: and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving

734
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 1: your home. You can get up to three million dollars

735
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Speaker 1: in coverage and some policies start as low as two

736
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of

737
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,800
Speaker 1: March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number

738
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 1: one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect

739
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free

740
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: quoted ethos dot com slash chuck. So again, that's Ethos

741
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and the

742
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:27,839
Speaker 1: rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life

743
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about, especially if

744
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: you've got a growing family. Well, sometimes I like to

745
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 1: have a guest that you both will inform all of us,

746
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 1: not just you the audience, but it also gives me

747
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 1: a chance to find out how are people thinking about

748
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 1: this current era of economic uncertainty, whether it's inflation, market volatility,

749
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,799
Speaker 1: questions about the future of social security, the national debt.

750
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,800
Speaker 1: So what is financial stability look like? You know, people

751
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 1: my age and above, we're sitting here in between retirement,

752
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:11,479
Speaker 1: in our peak earning years. We're constantly worried about this. Well,

753
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 1: my guest today runs a firm that advises individuals navigating

754
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 1: that uncertainty, Paul Auslander. So in many ways he's a

755
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 1: front row seat to at least to the conversation that

756
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 1: he's hearing from everyday investors that are reacting to this moment.

757
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:28,920
Speaker 1: This is not, by the way, I don't want you

758
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: to think he's not a sponsor. I'm not pitching him

759
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:35,839
Speaker 1: to be a sponsor. He's literally this is a conversation

760
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:40,319
Speaker 1: to try to hear what are investors hearing out there

761
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 1: from every day. We constantly know what the big private

762
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 1: equity people want to hear. What about the rest of us,

763
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 1: because in many ways that will tell us what this

764
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: economy looks like over the next couple of years. What

765
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 1: are the behaviors happening, What are the questions every day

766
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 1: investors are asking of experts like Paul, and he's been

767
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,959
Speaker 1: doing this quite a long time and he has seen

768
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:08,320
Speaker 1: ups and down. So Paul, welcome to the podcast.

769
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: Thanks Chuck, I appreciate it. Thanks for having me.

770
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 1: Well, look, let's do a little Like I said, this

771
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 1: is not a meant to be a sales pitch or sponsorship.

772
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 1: This is not anything like that. But give me the

773
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 1: give me a little bit of your origin story. How

774
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 1: did you end up in this position and why do

775
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:30,280
Speaker 1: you do this? And say not run some other business

776
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 1: or something like that.

777
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,720
Speaker 2: Well, it was the cecuitous route. You know. I didn't

778
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 2: know what I wanted to do in school. I was

779
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 2: besides trying to stay in school, I was a struggling musician,

780
00:47:40,040 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 2: so I kept dropping out and going to play with

781
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 2: bands and then go back and do a semester, and

782
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 2: I finally lit into something that I liked. What keyboards,

783
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 2: piano mainly.

784
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 1: Yeah.

785
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I've played a little bit of everything, but

786
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 2: the piano I probably spent more time on. That same

787
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:01,440
Speaker 2: mother was cracking the which she played as well. But

788
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 2: I found I had a bit of a feeling for

789
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,320
Speaker 2: numbers and still didn't know what I was going to

790
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 2: do when I got out of school and just stumbled,

791
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 2: literally stumbled into this profession that was very nascent at

792
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 2: the time, financial planning, And I got my certification as

793
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 2: a financial planner, which was at that time a relatively

794
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 2: new designation. Financial planning at that point was really being

795
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:24,800
Speaker 2: done by insurance agents.

796
00:48:24,840 --> 00:48:27,840
Speaker 1: It's sort of late seventies, early eighties, not to exactly.

797
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, got the CFP in eighty seven, but yeah, I

798
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 2: started in nineteen eighty So built up a practice and

799
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 2: a business, and I do it to this day. I

800
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 2: mean I could have retired a few years ago. I

801
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 2: love it, I enjoy it. It's now become mainstream. Got

802
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 2: involved here in the state of Florida, with the help

803
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 2: of our CFO Alex Sing, to push the concept of

804
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 2: financial literacy for students, because I think it's amazing how

805
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 2: many kids don't know anything about finance when they come out.

806
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's just been a labor of love. Over

807
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 2: the year, I've kind of migrated into what they call

808
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 2: the family office face, where I'm dealing with wealthier and

809
00:49:05,160 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 2: wealthier people who aren't sure exactly what they're going to do.

810
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:09,399
Speaker 2: And a lot of them happened to come down here

811
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 2: from Florida from my native New York. So I had

812
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 2: a nice.

813
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 1: They moved to my home state of Florida for all

814
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,879
Speaker 1: these things. Yeah, what is it about? Is there something

815
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 1: in the tax code? I don't know, I've never heard

816
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 1: of it.

817
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 2: Now it's taxes and weather. Frankly though, it's getting a

818
00:49:22,280 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 2: little different now. You know, it's legal to carry a

819
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 2: gun into publics now, open carry. So some of us

820
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:30,560
Speaker 2: are going, you know, let's let's not ruin a good thing.

821
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 1: So, you know, it's funny you say that. I often

822
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 1: wonder when is sort of this, when is it gone

823
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 1: too far? This sort of you know, one person's argument

824
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 1: for freedom it actually impedes upon the freedom of others right,

825
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 1: freedom of security and things like that. And I think

826
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 1: I'm waiting for that moment in Florida. I think we

827
00:49:52,600 --> 00:49:55,400
Speaker 1: right now, it's a we've been doing big swings. We

828
00:49:55,400 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 1: haven't had the big swings. Probably do sometimes, Probably going

829
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:03,359
Speaker 1: to have to do with property insurance ultimately, but we'll see,

830
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 1: I think. So. Yeah, Look, my father was a tried

831
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:11,440
Speaker 1: to get into this space, spent a decade in this space,

832
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 1: and passed away before ever found a chance. Whether this

833
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:18,840
Speaker 1: was going to succeed or fail. But you're right, it

834
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 1: was a It was sort of a new thing in

835
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:24,800
Speaker 1: the eight and so I, you know, I learned little

836
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:28,959
Speaker 1: things like Option Friday, which was always a crazy day

837
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: in my dad's life. And I got to know option

838
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 1: Friday as a teenager in a negative light. But that's

839
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 1: a whole nother story.

840
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 2: But what I to your point, there were a lot

841
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,280
Speaker 2: of stockbrokers, there, a lot of insurance folks that wanted

842
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 2: to give a higher level of service, to try to

843
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 2: help their clients, you know, not just sell them a product.

844
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:49,759
Speaker 2: That was really the genesis.

845
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,400
Speaker 1: No, there was, and you saw and it was it was.

846
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 1: It was funny how the you know. I remember my

847
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 1: father used a G. Edwards at the time as sort

848
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 1: of his home base this and eventually, I think AG

849
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 1: Edwards and your merrilllynches said, wait a minute, we got

850
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:09,239
Speaker 1: all these independent operators using you know, we're missing out

851
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:13,360
Speaker 1: on something here, you know. And it seems like that

852
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:15,920
Speaker 1: push and pull exists to this day. Right. You've got

853
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 1: your big institutions, you know, they want your money and

854
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 1: they say they can help you plan for retirement, and

855
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 1: then you still have the individuals out there going no, no, no, no, No,

856
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 1: I can give you more personalized service.

857
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 2: Is that? And then the line of demarcation really is

858
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 2: fiduciary service versus non fiduciary service. And I think that's

859
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 2: the big buzzword going forward. I think that's the differentiator

860
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 2: in the profession now, folks that are offering a service

861
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 2: where they have to be accountable for their advice as

862
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 2: opposed to folks that don't, because it is it's a

863
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 2: massive responsibility. Folks have worked all their life, and then

864
00:51:53,120 --> 00:51:54,839
Speaker 2: if they get with the wrong person or the wrong

865
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:58,719
Speaker 2: firm and that money gets taken away from them in

866
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,480
Speaker 2: some way, shape or form, it's non recoverable.

867
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:04,439
Speaker 1: You know, part of your job is to under You've

868
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 1: got to understand politics, at least enough to know, you know,

869
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:10,880
Speaker 1: what you should be investing in, what you shouldn't be

870
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 1: investing in, or what you should be hedging and what

871
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 1: you shouldn't be hedging. I mean, in fact, my financial

872
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 1: advisor and I get together as much for him to

873
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,520
Speaker 1: pick my brain as I do to pick his. When

874
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:24,240
Speaker 1: we have this, we have almost you know, about twice

875
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 1: a month we try to have breakfast where we're trying

876
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 1: you know, he's trying to like well, how long do

877
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: you think this shutdown is going to last? Or if

878
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 1: we do this? What you know? And so I do

879
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 1: think people in your space can tell us something about

880
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:43,239
Speaker 1: the public's behavior, because ultimately it's the public's behavior here

881
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:47,440
Speaker 1: that's going to dictate the health of this economy and

882
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 1: the health of our democracy.

883
00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:52,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's never been so stark. By the way,

884
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 2: in the old days, there were you know, three things

885
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 2: you wouldn't talk about, and one of them were politics,

886
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:03,520
Speaker 2: right and so, and but today it's the first thing

887
00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 2: that comes up. And I see it particularly where I am.

888
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:08,879
Speaker 2: I'm in a little town halfway between Clearwater and Saint

889
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:12,720
Speaker 2: Petersburg called bel Air, which is which is a pretty

890
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:16,279
Speaker 2: conservative area. And if you don't answer those initial questions right,

891
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:18,439
Speaker 2: you're not getting them. As a client, I've worked really

892
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 2: hard to try to keep a middle of the road approach,

893
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 2: not only in my interviews and my panels, but with

894
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 2: the clients, because there's certain certain facts in the economy

895
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:28,840
Speaker 2: that don't change with the politics.

896
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:31,480
Speaker 1: Right. Well, that's always you know, Look, this is the

897
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 1: world that I always say, I'm looking at this dispassionately

898
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 1: as best I can, and I understand if I'm not

899
00:53:37,440 --> 00:53:40,279
Speaker 1: a cheerleader. You think I'm an opponent, and it's like, no,

900
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 1: I'm just trying. I'm just being realistic. I'm just covering

901
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 1: politics as it is, not as I wish or were right.

902
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, So you know, I try to counsel clients

903
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:54,719
Speaker 2: into spending less time on one of the networks that

904
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 2: either infuriates them or makes them cheer, and more about

905
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:00,920
Speaker 2: understanding why the companies are doing well and what their

906
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 2: risk tolerance is and how much they should diversify. As

907
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:07,319
Speaker 2: an example, for ten years, nobody in our profession put

908
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:10,840
Speaker 2: any money overseas. Last year the European index has doubled,

909
00:54:10,840 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 2: the S and P five hunderd, giving President Trump's some

910
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:17,440
Speaker 2: credit for this. He's forced the European companies countries to

911
00:54:17,480 --> 00:54:20,840
Speaker 2: start investing in their defense, which in turns become very profitable.

912
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 2: So you're seeing changes, and there's an example of the

913
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 2: politics impacting it, but overall, general economic principles still apply.

914
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 2: You know, the whole the whole notion is to spend

915
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 2: less than your earn and save something.

916
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 1: Right, So let's talk. I am curious, what are the

917
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:47,720
Speaker 1: political concerned? What are the politically charged questions? You get

918
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 1: when it comes to investment strategy, what would you say

919
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:54,279
Speaker 1: the threat? You know, I certainly have three or four

920
00:54:54,440 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: in my head, But before I get to mine, what

921
00:54:57,080 --> 00:54:59,719
Speaker 1: are some of the questions you have clients asking you

922
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:05,879
Speaker 1: in order to potentially find a hedge against a current

923
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 1: situation or not. What are some of the I.

924
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:11,520
Speaker 2: Mean, the first primary thing that comes up is tax policy,

925
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 2: and we hear that regularly, and that of course impacts

926
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 2: a lot of the way in which a client receives

927
00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 2: their money, and so we talk about that a lot.

928
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:23,359
Speaker 2: And tax policy has been fairly favorable under this administration

929
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 2: for investors. You could argue that perhaps for other people

930
00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:30,680
Speaker 2: not so much. And secondly, and to your point earlier,

931
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:33,360
Speaker 2: it's really a K shaped economy in many ways, the

932
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:36,440
Speaker 2: haves are getting wealthier and the haves not. There are

933
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 2: many are on the edge, and so that's a bigger,

934
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:42,440
Speaker 2: longer discussion and a question. But for the folks that

935
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 2: are on the top side of that K, tax policy

936
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:47,759
Speaker 2: is a big deal, both income tax and estate tax.

937
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:51,200
Speaker 2: As that comes up later in the conversation, you have

938
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 2: conversations about should we be spending money helping other countries

939
00:55:55,000 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 2: spend for themselves? Where is our money spent here immigration.

940
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 2: I have a number of restaurant owners who are die

941
00:56:03,680 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 2: hard conservative Republicans who have lost seventy eighty percent of

942
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:11,480
Speaker 2: their stats. That's an interesting conversation. So they because of

943
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 2: immigration policy, right, So I mean it comes up, but

944
00:56:15,320 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 2: you try to guide them back to the middle. And

945
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,359
Speaker 2: I think I've done it right, but you never know.

946
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I admire you and your financial advisor for

947
00:56:23,960 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 2: sitting a couple of times a month and going over

948
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 2: things because besides talking the politics, it's good to have

949
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 2: that contact, right. And one of the things I try

950
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:33,799
Speaker 2: to do is go see the clients or you know

951
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 2: today in the age of zoom, do this with clients

952
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:38,319
Speaker 2: so that we can talk about the things that they

953
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 2: might be worrying about. You know, it impacts people's retirement

954
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:43,240
Speaker 2: ages too. You know, a lot of folks were aiming

955
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:46,880
Speaker 2: pre COVID to retire already. A lot of them have

956
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 2: decided to stay on a little longer for a few reasons,

957
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 2: including a couple of market downturns where their four oh

958
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,040
Speaker 2: one K was really their tool one K for a

959
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:54,920
Speaker 2: couple of years.

960
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 1: It's a good line I think you did there. Let

961
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 1: me start with a little financial humor. Let me start

962
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:09,279
Speaker 1: with the issue that that I am planning for, but

963
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 1: I'm curious how much it comes up. And you know,

964
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 1: I've always you know, I will. Gen X is you know,

965
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 1: has to pay the bills of the boomers. We've had

966
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 1: to pay the bills of the boomers for some time now.

967
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 1: And the biggest bill is yet to come. And that

968
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,480
Speaker 1: bill is going to be Social Security, and there is

969
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 1: a built in cut coming. You can just feel it.

970
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 1: It's going to be. They'll always pay benefits, but there'll

971
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 1: be a cut in how big, you know, in what

972
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 1: you're you know, we'll probably get seventy five percent of

973
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 1: what we do, not one hundred percent of what we're doing.

974
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:45,120
Speaker 1: We'll be the first generation because we're the smallest millennials,

975
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 1: and you know it's all about millennials and Gen Z

976
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 1: and every that's always been the problem for Gen X.

977
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 1: But I am planning and assuming not nothing on Social Security,

978
00:57:56,200 --> 00:58:00,200
Speaker 1: but a less than what people have been counting the

979
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 1: currently A do you advise clients that way that are

980
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,800
Speaker 1: in my age bracket, in that Gen X age bracket,

981
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 1: So we're essentially fifty to sixty four right now, right

982
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 1: you know, we're born in sixty five, So we're just

983
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:18,800
Speaker 1: that that's our that's our age range. Are you telling

984
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: people to plan for that or not?

985
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:24,720
Speaker 2: So there's a couple of answers to that. Number One,

986
00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 2: I don't subscribe to the theory that we're in as

987
00:58:28,560 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 2: disastrous shape as many people believe we are if we

988
00:58:31,320 --> 00:58:33,840
Speaker 2: keep it currently the way it is. It's amazing what

989
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:36,120
Speaker 2: the math does if you push retirement out a couple

990
00:58:36,120 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 2: of years. So if you take it off of sixty

991
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 2: seven and take it to sixty nine, suddenly that trust

992
00:58:41,040 --> 00:58:43,520
Speaker 2: fund lasts a heck of a lot longer. That's number one.

993
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:47,040
Speaker 2: Number Two, there's means testing, right, So forget about you

994
00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 2: and I and all the mortals in the world. Talk

995
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:51,320
Speaker 2: about all the people that are now populating Miami, right,

996
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 2: they wouldn't be and I'm talking about Indian you know,

997
00:58:55,040 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 2: the areas of Miami which are attracting the Mark Zuckerberg's

998
00:58:58,040 --> 00:58:59,040
Speaker 2: and other people of the world.

999
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 1: Right that again, literally the private islands that the general

1000
00:59:02,560 --> 00:59:04,120
Speaker 1: public of Miami aren't allowed on.

1001
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 2: But you get to right, right, But so they say

1002
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 2: they wouldn't be eligible, or they wouldn't get it, or

1003
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 2: they'd have to pay a higher tax. But I do

1004
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:16,320
Speaker 2: caution people your age that you have to be aware

1005
00:59:16,360 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 2: that something might change. I don't not to disagree too much,

1006
00:59:21,200 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 2: but I don't think a seventy five percent of the

1007
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:26,240
Speaker 2: one hundred percent that you would get is realistic. I

1008
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 2: think that's political suicide in this country. I think whether

1009
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:31,720
Speaker 2: it's Republican or Democrats, I don't know the reason.

1010
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:34,720
Speaker 1: I take your point, and it has been if there

1011
00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 1: was ever a generation you could probably punish without as

1012
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:42,400
Speaker 1: much blowback, it's the smallest one alive, which is definitely.

1013
00:59:42,080 --> 00:59:45,400
Speaker 2: What they're going what I see happening. And I think

1014
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:50,040
Speaker 2: it's the generation behind you. It's your children, it's my

1015
00:59:50,160 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 2: children be a little bit older than yours.

1016
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 1: It's the millennial millennium. My kids are gen Z. I

1017
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:56,080
Speaker 1: guess it's your kids are millennial, right.

1018
00:59:56,200 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And I see them having this, them having

1019
00:59:59,840 --> 01:00:02,640
Speaker 2: the biggest impact, right, But they're already not planning for it.

1020
01:00:02,880 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 2: They're thinking to themselves, it's not going to be there.

1021
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:06,680
Speaker 2: They don't trust this system anyway.

1022
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 1: And they by the way, that was how it's funny

1023
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 1: you say that. My wife and I discussed this all

1024
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 1: the time when the thirty year old versions of us

1025
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:20,680
Speaker 1: were constantly messaged that, and so that was the message

1026
01:00:20,680 --> 01:00:24,560
Speaker 1: of the eighties and nineties. So yeah, we actually we

1027
01:00:24,720 --> 01:00:25,919
Speaker 1: actually planned that way.

1028
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:28,720
Speaker 2: I also think what's going to happen is the same

1029
01:00:28,760 --> 01:00:30,800
Speaker 2: evolution that it cared or you might call it a

1030
01:00:30,840 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 2: revolution that occurred and defined benefit pension plans, where a

1031
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:37,200
Speaker 2: GM before had a pension plan that you had for

1032
01:00:37,240 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 2: many years and then you got an income that got

1033
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 2: converted to a four to oh one k where you

1034
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:43,760
Speaker 2: ended up doing your own investing and it was up

1035
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 2: to you as to how your retirement plan did. I

1036
01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 2: think that's going to happen to Social Security. Many administrations

1037
01:00:49,440 --> 01:00:52,280
Speaker 2: have tried to privatize it. It hasn't happened. I think

1038
01:00:52,400 --> 01:00:56,240
Speaker 2: that's more likely for a generation back, in other words,

1039
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:57,280
Speaker 2: younger people, for it.

1040
01:00:57,240 --> 01:00:59,080
Speaker 1: To have probably for you know, the only way you

1041
01:00:59,120 --> 01:01:02,120
Speaker 1: pull that off, it's got to start almost like you know,

1042
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 1: only those under thirty five or something like that, right.

1043
01:01:04,680 --> 01:01:06,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah, And I think we have the beginnings of

1044
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 2: that with Brad Gersner and others who have come up

1045
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 2: with these from America concepts that President Trump has put

1046
01:01:12,520 --> 01:01:15,760
Speaker 2: his name on, which again I think that's that's going

1047
01:01:15,800 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 2: to be a start.

1048
01:01:16,320 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 1: Bad He put his name on it because he polarizes

1049
01:01:18,680 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 1: something that might might.

1050
01:01:20,640 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 2: Maybe be a good idea for people.

1051
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, so you're you're it's look, we can

1052
01:01:28,320 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 1: you know, do you remember the Notch babies.

1053
01:01:32,840 --> 01:01:34,120
Speaker 2: I can't say that I do.

1054
01:01:34,360 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 1: So there was a small period of time where we

1055
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 1: had this small group of Americans born we like made

1056
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,800
Speaker 1: this decision to like cut their social Security and it

1057
01:01:42,880 --> 01:01:45,479
Speaker 1: was for this like group of people, and every year

1058
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:49,040
Speaker 1: Congress had to like do the Notch baby fix to

1059
01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:52,760
Speaker 1: make sure they got their whole The point is it

1060
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:55,040
Speaker 1: was it was one of the early attempts to try

1061
01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:57,080
Speaker 1: to reign in the growth of Social Security so that

1062
01:01:57,080 --> 01:01:59,880
Speaker 1: it didn't overwhelm the federal budget. And of course you

1063
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:03,200
Speaker 1: are not wrong. It was politically just so even it

1064
01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 1: was a small group of people, the experiment was so unpopular.

1065
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:10,120
Speaker 1: So in some ways, to support your pushback on me,

1066
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:12,600
Speaker 1: I give you Notch babies, and and.

1067
01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:15,600
Speaker 2: Thank you for telling me that. I'm a political junkie

1068
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:17,400
Speaker 2: and I'm in the financial business, and I had not

1069
01:02:17,480 --> 01:02:19,200
Speaker 2: heard of it, so I figured, i'd I.

1070
01:02:19,120 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 1: Think all the Notch babies are dead. I think that's why,

1071
01:02:22,080 --> 01:02:24,960
Speaker 1: all right, So that a lot of I doubt you

1072
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:27,600
Speaker 1: have a client left that that was would be a

1073
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 1: quote unquote nottch baby. But if every serves there was

1074
01:02:31,520 --> 01:02:37,440
Speaker 1: this this small So that's certainly one thing I think about.

1075
01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:39,560
Speaker 1: Now let me let me go with another direction here.

1076
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:43,600
Speaker 1: There is money to be made off of bad Trump

1077
01:02:43,640 --> 01:02:48,240
Speaker 1: policies that you know is going to go away when

1078
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 1: Trump goes away. But it feels icky. How do you

1079
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 1: How do you deal with that?

1080
01:02:56,800 --> 01:03:00,800
Speaker 2: I love how you express it. You try to stay

1081
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 2: agnostic about those things. Right in the end of the day.

1082
01:03:03,360 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 2: My job is to try to make sure that the

1083
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 2: client has what they need and what they've goed for,

1084
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:12,160
Speaker 2: and in the case of larger family offices, to protect

1085
01:03:12,200 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 2: the family wealth that the founder or the matriarch or

1086
01:03:15,640 --> 01:03:20,080
Speaker 2: patriarch created. If I sense that it's it's become a

1087
01:03:20,120 --> 01:03:22,920
Speaker 2: political discussion and that they're really in favor of something,

1088
01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:27,680
Speaker 2: or in the case of a lot of my liberal

1089
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:30,440
Speaker 2: clients who have a lot of money and will absolutely

1090
01:03:30,520 --> 01:03:36,120
Speaker 2: not go near anything that smells of this administration, we'll

1091
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:38,400
Speaker 2: work with it, you know. I mean that's part of

1092
01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:39,560
Speaker 2: the discovery process.

1093
01:03:39,600 --> 01:03:42,200
Speaker 1: And look, I look at it as crypto in general,

1094
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:46,600
Speaker 1: like I feel like, you know what we saw right,

1095
01:03:46,800 --> 01:03:51,200
Speaker 1: is there's a in some ways crypto has become a

1096
01:03:51,240 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 1: special interest and they spent a lot of money to

1097
01:03:55,920 --> 01:03:59,120
Speaker 1: when they decided that that one party wasn't going to

1098
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:00,680
Speaker 1: give them what they wanted, and they said, all right,

1099
01:04:00,760 --> 01:04:03,080
Speaker 1: well we're going to invest all this and they you know,

1100
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:06,240
Speaker 1: they're they're doing this the old fashioned way in Washington,

1101
01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 1: which is they're buying supporters. You know, they're throwing money

1102
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:12,760
Speaker 1: at and they're trying to buy bipartisan support. I mean,

1103
01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 1: they're using a blueprint that has been used in the

1104
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 1: modern era for basically one hundred years. So I bring

1105
01:04:20,760 --> 01:04:22,920
Speaker 1: that up because crypto feels like something you can make

1106
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:27,280
Speaker 1: money on now. But there's another administration and probably when

1107
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:30,360
Speaker 1: the pitchforks come and the electorate changes a little bit,

1108
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:33,800
Speaker 1: or the elected official makeup changes a little bit, some

1109
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:38,320
Speaker 1: serious regulation is coming. If I were in your shoes,

1110
01:04:38,320 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 1: I'd be trying to figure out how do you both

1111
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:43,320
Speaker 1: help a client make money in that moment and hedge

1112
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:46,360
Speaker 1: against it down the road. Again, as you said, take

1113
01:04:46,400 --> 01:04:49,840
Speaker 1: your own morals and ethics aside a minute. This is

1114
01:04:49,880 --> 01:04:52,400
Speaker 1: the reality. You know that crypto's going to get some

1115
01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:56,760
Speaker 1: value short term, and you know more regulation is coming

1116
01:04:56,920 --> 01:04:57,919
Speaker 1: in the medium term.

1117
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:00,480
Speaker 2: How are you great exit?

1118
01:05:01,040 --> 01:05:03,320
Speaker 1: How do you manage that? How do you advise? You know,

1119
01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:06,640
Speaker 1: obviously you're being very careful. Look you sort of the

1120
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 1: client's got a passionate position on it. You deal with

1121
01:05:09,920 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 1: it one way. But if they're sort of neutral, I've

1122
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:17,040
Speaker 1: come to you like, look, you know, is there a

1123
01:05:17,240 --> 01:05:18,959
Speaker 1: would you say, is there money to be made short

1124
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:23,160
Speaker 1: term in here that's worth the risk? And b I

1125
01:05:23,240 --> 01:05:25,480
Speaker 1: do know more financial regulation is coming. How do we

1126
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:26,080
Speaker 1: prepare for it?

1127
01:05:26,680 --> 01:05:28,840
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure about the second one, but the

1128
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 2: first one is a pretty easy answer. You know, Crypto

1129
01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 2: was around before Trump hit the scene, and Crypto in

1130
01:05:34,800 --> 01:05:38,800
Speaker 2: this whole blockchain is a revolution that's occurring and will

1131
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 2: continue to occur way past Donald Trump and whoever his

1132
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:44,480
Speaker 2: successor is. Also, we have a history of not putting

1133
01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:47,200
Speaker 2: in regulations after we've decided not to put in the

1134
01:05:47,240 --> 01:05:51,600
Speaker 2: regulations or change regulations later on. We had a very

1135
01:05:51,640 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 2: conservative SEC chair prior to the one that's in now.

1136
01:05:55,440 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 2: This SEC chair that's in now is much more allowed

1137
01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:03,240
Speaker 2: for these types of things. I think Crypto the train

1138
01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:06,240
Speaker 2: has already left the station, right. There are many, many

1139
01:06:06,400 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 2: large organizations that have considerable exposure to crypto. I think

1140
01:06:11,760 --> 01:06:14,720
Speaker 2: crypto goes down before it goes up again. But this

1141
01:06:14,880 --> 01:06:17,920
Speaker 2: is a trade. This is not a store of value

1142
01:06:17,960 --> 01:06:20,880
Speaker 2: like gold has taken that position. It's a trade and

1143
01:06:20,920 --> 01:06:23,440
Speaker 2: people are trading it like any asset class. It happens

1144
01:06:23,440 --> 01:06:25,720
Speaker 2: to be a newer asset class. I think the great

1145
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:28,360
Speaker 2: part about our markets is time will tell if it's

1146
01:06:28,400 --> 01:06:30,440
Speaker 2: a good asset class or not. And it's going to

1147
01:06:30,440 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 2: be one of those things where buyer beware.

1148
01:06:40,840 --> 01:06:42,680
Speaker 1: Is there an example in the past that you could

1149
01:06:42,720 --> 01:06:45,240
Speaker 1: come up with that was seen as a good asset,

1150
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:49,640
Speaker 1: good commodity that turned out to be wrong, and eventually

1151
01:06:49,680 --> 01:06:52,200
Speaker 1: the market told you it was wrong.

1152
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:59,600
Speaker 2: You know, I really can't. I think I would. I

1153
01:06:59,600 --> 01:07:02,160
Speaker 2: would think about that, and if I've come up with it,

1154
01:07:02,280 --> 01:07:03,040
Speaker 2: send you an email.

1155
01:07:03,080 --> 01:07:06,120
Speaker 1: After this, let me throw one out you because the

1156
01:07:06,200 --> 01:07:09,320
Speaker 1: closest And I'm curious if you think this works because

1157
01:07:09,320 --> 01:07:11,840
Speaker 1: I was young when it happened when the Hunt Brothers

1158
01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:15,439
Speaker 1: tried to corner the silver mark silver. Yeah, yeah, and

1159
01:07:15,520 --> 01:07:18,600
Speaker 1: they were basically trying to raise the floor of value

1160
01:07:18,640 --> 01:07:21,840
Speaker 1: on silver because they were long on silver, right. I mean,

1161
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:26,320
Speaker 1: I may have my specific throng here, and it came

1162
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:28,560
Speaker 1: crashing down on them, and there was a part of

1163
01:07:28,600 --> 01:07:30,520
Speaker 1: that that I wondered if there was a lesson to

1164
01:07:30,520 --> 01:07:31,000
Speaker 1: be learned.

1165
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:35,880
Speaker 2: Well, the family went seventy The family lost seventy five

1166
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:38,560
Speaker 2: percent of its net worth in that example. So that

1167
01:07:38,640 --> 01:07:41,160
Speaker 2: was that was the number one punishment, right, I mean,

1168
01:07:41,200 --> 01:07:44,600
Speaker 2: that's a good example. But silver wasn't the evil person there.

1169
01:07:44,720 --> 01:07:48,280
Speaker 2: Silver wasn't wasn't the issue. The issue was the way

1170
01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 2: in which the traders were trying to corner the market

1171
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,000
Speaker 2: and do it. And if you look at silver now, right,

1172
01:07:54,040 --> 01:07:55,800
Speaker 2: silver and gold have had the best run they've had

1173
01:07:55,960 --> 01:07:58,040
Speaker 2: years in the last in the last year, it's coming out.

1174
01:07:58,080 --> 01:08:00,640
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that silver and gold are moving up

1175
01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:04,479
Speaker 1: like this and as they are behaving like the sort

1176
01:08:04,480 --> 01:08:07,960
Speaker 1: of safe haven that people want to treat them as.

1177
01:08:08,840 --> 01:08:11,440
Speaker 1: But there is not a single crypto asset that is

1178
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:12,200
Speaker 1: behaving in that way.

1179
01:08:12,920 --> 01:08:16,000
Speaker 2: I think. I think, well, there are two different assets, right,

1180
01:08:16,000 --> 01:08:18,960
Speaker 2: I think silver and gold. You have central banks buying

1181
01:08:19,000 --> 01:08:21,560
Speaker 2: silver and gold. Right, you don't have central banks necessarily

1182
01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:24,680
Speaker 2: buying crypto. You have still central banks buying.

1183
01:08:24,720 --> 01:08:28,559
Speaker 1: To be shocked when don't be shocked when arms get

1184
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:30,760
Speaker 1: twisted to force that in order to prop up the

1185
01:08:30,760 --> 01:08:31,839
Speaker 1: price of bitcoin.

1186
01:08:31,920 --> 01:08:35,320
Speaker 2: But yeah, but I think no. But I think I

1187
01:08:35,320 --> 01:08:38,200
Speaker 2: think there's a general fear out there that you know,

1188
01:08:38,640 --> 01:08:41,519
Speaker 2: uncertainty causes a lot of concern, right, and there's a

1189
01:08:41,560 --> 01:08:44,280
Speaker 2: lot of uncertainty in the economy. Part of that has

1190
01:08:44,320 --> 01:08:47,960
Speaker 2: been President Trump and the Trumps, the terrorists being going

1191
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:51,160
Speaker 2: one way, one one direction, and then another direction. So

1192
01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:53,559
Speaker 2: I think that's part of it. And I think when

1193
01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:56,240
Speaker 2: people are really nervous, plus you add an all time

1194
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:58,840
Speaker 2: high to the stock market, I think you have people

1195
01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:02,360
Speaker 2: buying these assets as a safe haven. I don't think

1196
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:04,960
Speaker 2: it's any more complicated than that. It's also been a

1197
01:09:05,040 --> 01:09:09,160
Speaker 2: trade frankly, particularly silver and gold, not so much where

1198
01:09:09,200 --> 01:09:11,599
Speaker 2: people the traders are just having a good time with

1199
01:09:11,600 --> 01:09:14,479
Speaker 2: something that's always been kind of stale and now suddenly

1200
01:09:14,479 --> 01:09:16,240
Speaker 2: came to life.

1201
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 1: So it's sort of one of those is it's getting

1202
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:21,320
Speaker 1: a little action, then it gets marketed or it almost

1203
01:09:21,360 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 1: goes viral.

1204
01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:25,240
Speaker 2: I think that's exactly right, and I think social media

1205
01:09:25,280 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 2: helps set along. I think that's the whole memes stock idea.

1206
01:09:28,640 --> 01:09:30,960
Speaker 2: And I don't necessarily see that that's not investing in

1207
01:09:30,960 --> 01:09:33,640
Speaker 2: that wealth management we talked about earlier. In this discussion

1208
01:09:33,840 --> 01:09:39,240
Speaker 2: that's really just trades and people just playing the momentum.

1209
01:09:40,080 --> 01:09:42,080
Speaker 1: You say, you deal with a lot of family offices.

1210
01:09:42,400 --> 01:09:45,879
Speaker 1: How many of them are trying to hedge by moving

1211
01:09:46,240 --> 01:09:49,400
Speaker 1: money out of the United States.

1212
01:09:49,760 --> 01:09:53,760
Speaker 2: They're moving money, well, they're concerned about the dollar, so

1213
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:56,320
Speaker 2: to that extent, they're moving some money out of state,

1214
01:09:57,040 --> 01:10:01,240
Speaker 2: out of the States, but there's no equal safety net

1215
01:10:01,400 --> 01:10:05,000
Speaker 2: anywhere else than the dollar to them. So more of

1216
01:10:05,040 --> 01:10:07,000
Speaker 2: them are moving it into real estate if they want

1217
01:10:07,000 --> 01:10:09,439
Speaker 2: to get out of the market, or gold. And that's

1218
01:10:09,840 --> 01:10:11,960
Speaker 2: we're seeing quite a bit of that, quite a bit

1219
01:10:11,960 --> 01:10:15,120
Speaker 2: of that now. The international markets they've warmed to that

1220
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:17,960
Speaker 2: because they've seen the money that's being spent in Europe

1221
01:10:18,040 --> 01:10:21,280
Speaker 2: now on not only defense but on infrastructury building. One

1222
01:10:21,280 --> 01:10:23,120
Speaker 2: of these nasty little facts up there is you can

1223
01:10:23,160 --> 01:10:24,880
Speaker 2: no longer drive a Porsche at one hundred and ten

1224
01:10:24,960 --> 01:10:27,240
Speaker 2: miles an hour on the Autobahn because the Germans have

1225
01:10:27,320 --> 01:10:29,479
Speaker 2: been so austere that they haven't fixed their potholes on

1226
01:10:29,520 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 2: the autobon so and this became really came to light

1227
01:10:33,520 --> 01:10:36,439
Speaker 2: when NATO was talking about moving tanks over certain bridges

1228
01:10:36,479 --> 01:10:38,920
Speaker 2: that had to cross Germany to Poland. The bridges wouldn't

1229
01:10:38,920 --> 01:10:41,519
Speaker 2: hold the tanks. So this is an example of money

1230
01:10:41,560 --> 01:10:44,519
Speaker 2: being spent. Part of it is you kind of shake

1231
01:10:44,560 --> 01:10:46,240
Speaker 2: your head and go, how could they let that happen?

1232
01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:49,400
Speaker 2: That's the post Merkel years. But the other side of it,

1233
01:10:49,439 --> 01:10:52,680
Speaker 2: and it's really an issue, but a positive issue from investment,

1234
01:10:53,040 --> 01:10:56,000
Speaker 2: is that these companies that do that type of work

1235
01:10:56,000 --> 01:10:58,200
Speaker 2: will be profitable for a while. You could say the

1236
01:10:58,240 --> 01:11:01,040
Speaker 2: same thing in certain emerging markets where they're going to

1237
01:11:01,080 --> 01:11:03,880
Speaker 2: do pretty well. And the family offices have been ahead

1238
01:11:03,880 --> 01:11:06,320
Speaker 2: of that game. They've been going in that direction for

1239
01:11:06,360 --> 01:11:08,439
Speaker 2: the better part of a year. And some of that

1240
01:11:08,479 --> 01:11:11,280
Speaker 2: has been political, right. Some of them have recognized that

1241
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:13,519
Speaker 2: Trump's going to push them to do things that they

1242
01:11:13,520 --> 01:11:17,480
Speaker 2: didn't want to do the European countries, and they're responding

1243
01:11:17,520 --> 01:11:20,559
Speaker 2: and doing it. And family offices didn't get that wealthy

1244
01:11:20,720 --> 01:11:23,759
Speaker 2: by being stupid. They recognize that there's an opportunity there.

1245
01:11:25,960 --> 01:11:28,240
Speaker 1: The family office. You know, for those that are not

1246
01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:31,920
Speaker 1: familiar with that language, it's usually it's inherited. It's usually

1247
01:11:32,000 --> 01:11:35,639
Speaker 1: second at least second generation, third generation sort of wealth

1248
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:39,120
Speaker 1: right that is now.

1249
01:11:38,600 --> 01:11:42,160
Speaker 2: For interrupting, but now more first generation because of the

1250
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:45,080
Speaker 2: tech wealth right, so a Zuckerberg has a family office

1251
01:11:45,479 --> 01:11:47,879
Speaker 2: or Bezos and all of them. But to your point,

1252
01:11:48,200 --> 01:11:52,479
Speaker 2: Kennedy's didn't put a family office together until Joseph Kennedy

1253
01:11:52,600 --> 01:11:55,080
Speaker 2: was getting pretty old, right, and it was really already

1254
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:59,080
Speaker 2: moved down to the younger, younger generation. It was a

1255
01:11:59,120 --> 01:12:01,719
Speaker 2: method of private right. The idea was that they didn't

1256
01:12:01,720 --> 01:12:04,680
Speaker 2: want anybody really knowing what they had exactly and what

1257
01:12:04,800 --> 01:12:06,880
Speaker 2: kind of trades they were making, and what kind of

1258
01:12:06,920 --> 01:12:10,360
Speaker 2: banks they had money at. And they couldn't just swear

1259
01:12:10,400 --> 01:12:12,920
Speaker 2: their accountants and their attorneys to secrecy, so they could

1260
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:15,479
Speaker 2: employ them and threaten to fire them from that job

1261
01:12:15,600 --> 01:12:19,040
Speaker 2: if they said anything. And so they created that years ago.

1262
01:12:19,120 --> 01:12:21,920
Speaker 2: It was one hundred million dollars was a qualifier for

1263
01:12:21,960 --> 01:12:25,599
Speaker 2: a family office. Today you wouldn't really, it doesn't make

1264
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:29,400
Speaker 2: sense financially to start under a billion dollars of family network.

1265
01:12:29,760 --> 01:12:32,280
Speaker 2: You plug into something called a multi family office, which

1266
01:12:32,320 --> 01:12:34,599
Speaker 2: is what we do in one of our divisions, where

1267
01:12:34,600 --> 01:12:38,960
Speaker 2: we essentially help a number of families and they mingle

1268
01:12:39,040 --> 01:12:42,360
Speaker 2: their assets for certain investment opportunities. They call mingle their

1269
01:12:42,360 --> 01:12:45,639
Speaker 2: assets for economies of scale with advisors. That type of thing.

1270
01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:48,799
Speaker 2: Big change. A couple of years ago where the SEC

1271
01:12:48,960 --> 01:12:54,360
Speaker 2: required them to register as investment advisors and it was

1272
01:12:54,439 --> 01:12:57,760
Speaker 2: knocked back, but it was a big deal because a

1273
01:12:57,760 --> 01:13:00,559
Speaker 2: lot of these Once you register as an investment advisor,

1274
01:13:00,640 --> 01:13:02,839
Speaker 2: now the SEC knows what you're doing, and it defeats

1275
01:13:02,840 --> 01:13:06,120
Speaker 2: that whole privacy issue. So there's some complications there.

1276
01:13:06,479 --> 01:13:08,599
Speaker 1: Well, I will tell you, and I want to just

1277
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:12,000
Speaker 1: sort of share with listeners and viewers why I've become

1278
01:13:12,000 --> 01:13:15,120
Speaker 1: more interested in family offices. As you look for investors

1279
01:13:15,240 --> 01:13:20,679
Speaker 1: in new businesses, particularly in the media space, a family

1280
01:13:20,760 --> 01:13:29,800
Speaker 1: office is more likely to give you time, have patients,

1281
01:13:30,400 --> 01:13:33,040
Speaker 1: you know, not necessarily not all of them are this way,

1282
01:13:33,080 --> 01:13:35,880
Speaker 1: but some are. You're more likely to find versus working

1283
01:13:35,920 --> 01:13:39,400
Speaker 1: with just a larger private equity firm who needs help.

1284
01:13:39,479 --> 01:13:41,320
Speaker 1: I need my three year return, I need a what's

1285
01:13:41,360 --> 01:13:45,800
Speaker 1: my exit ramp in five years? What's my exp versus right?

1286
01:13:45,920 --> 01:13:51,639
Speaker 1: And sometimes it is political alignment, you know, I'm involved

1287
01:13:51,640 --> 01:13:55,200
Speaker 1: with investment. It's been over ten years now, that's kind

1288
01:13:55,200 --> 01:13:58,400
Speaker 1: of been flat. It's gone really nowhere, but it's been

1289
01:13:58,439 --> 01:14:04,120
Speaker 1: a sustainable real estate development and and different, you know,

1290
01:14:04,200 --> 01:14:08,240
Speaker 1: and it's come close, but it's it's been family offices

1291
01:14:08,240 --> 01:14:15,000
Speaker 1: that were the primary primary investors. And it is a

1292
01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:16,919
Speaker 1: it has been a long time horizon.

1293
01:14:17,080 --> 01:14:19,840
Speaker 2: It's so we see, it's an increasingly it's an increasingly

1294
01:14:20,000 --> 01:14:24,599
Speaker 2: popular source of investment in capital for companies. For exactly

1295
01:14:24,600 --> 01:14:26,439
Speaker 2: why you say they have a they have a very

1296
01:14:26,479 --> 01:14:29,000
Speaker 2: long time horizon and they're very patient and they don't

1297
01:14:29,040 --> 01:14:30,160
Speaker 2: need a return immediately.

1298
01:14:30,439 --> 01:14:33,080
Speaker 1: Well they may be. It's their way of like, hey,

1299
01:14:33,120 --> 01:14:35,200
Speaker 1: we got to fix local news. I get it. You

1300
01:14:35,240 --> 01:14:39,080
Speaker 1: need ten years not three years, okay, versus you know

1301
01:14:39,439 --> 01:14:41,840
Speaker 1: your Apollo. You know, look they got a it's almost

1302
01:14:41,840 --> 01:14:43,000
Speaker 1: like a factory of investments.

1303
01:14:43,120 --> 01:14:46,640
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, yep, that's exactly right. Yeah, yeah, Pollow is

1304
01:14:46,640 --> 01:14:49,800
Speaker 2: a good example. No, but it's it's a it's an

1305
01:14:49,800 --> 01:14:53,640
Speaker 2: interesting group. I enjoy it. I I love one of

1306
01:14:53,640 --> 01:14:56,799
Speaker 2: the reasons I'm still in businesses. I love hearing about

1307
01:14:56,840 --> 01:14:59,559
Speaker 2: somebody creating a new widget and then building a company

1308
01:14:59,600 --> 01:15:02,040
Speaker 2: around it. I just find that to be.

1309
01:15:02,280 --> 01:15:05,680
Speaker 1: And you get that more often with family office investments

1310
01:15:05,680 --> 01:15:07,640
Speaker 1: than with just generic private equity.

1311
01:15:07,400 --> 01:15:11,600
Speaker 2: Right, yeah, yeah, I mean private equity has been the

1312
01:15:11,640 --> 01:15:14,080
Speaker 2: source for a lot of these smaller companies to be

1313
01:15:14,160 --> 01:15:17,080
Speaker 2: taken out and purchased. I mean, private equity is buying

1314
01:15:17,120 --> 01:15:20,080
Speaker 2: into doctors groups and dentist groups and veterinarian groups. So

1315
01:15:20,080 --> 01:15:24,200
Speaker 2: they're getting on a granular level with businesses, family offices.

1316
01:15:24,240 --> 01:15:27,799
Speaker 2: You see, not necessarily buying businesses. They'll buy into something

1317
01:15:27,880 --> 01:15:29,479
Speaker 2: or they'll be the seed investor for it.

1318
01:15:30,200 --> 01:15:34,680
Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of the what I think is

1319
01:15:34,960 --> 01:15:36,680
Speaker 1: as I sort of been saying. I said, look, the

1320
01:15:36,960 --> 01:15:40,920
Speaker 1: pitchforks are getting sharpened, and I think there are some

1321
01:15:41,160 --> 01:15:44,000
Speaker 1: wealthy people who are nervous about this. You know, and

1322
01:15:44,040 --> 01:15:46,559
Speaker 1: you see the stories about people building bunkers and all

1323
01:15:46,600 --> 01:15:48,800
Speaker 1: of this stuff. Do you have many investors that are

1324
01:15:48,800 --> 01:15:51,720
Speaker 1: worried about this inequality coming for them?

1325
01:15:52,320 --> 01:15:56,000
Speaker 2: It's more of a conversation now than it has been ever.

1326
01:15:57,560 --> 01:15:59,880
Speaker 2: I don't have anybody that is. I mean, if the

1327
01:16:00,120 --> 01:16:02,720
Speaker 2: building a bunker in Florida, it's because of hurricanes, not

1328
01:16:02,760 --> 01:16:03,880
Speaker 2: because somebody's coming out.

1329
01:16:04,080 --> 01:16:05,960
Speaker 1: You can't build too much of a bunker in Florida.

1330
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:07,800
Speaker 1: You're going to hit the Atlantic Ocean, so good luck,

1331
01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:08,400
Speaker 1: that's right.

1332
01:16:08,560 --> 01:16:12,680
Speaker 2: Or the golf or the golf. But it's come up,

1333
01:16:13,280 --> 01:16:15,040
Speaker 2: you know, I mean you just take just go to

1334
01:16:15,160 --> 01:16:19,480
Speaker 2: Munich this past week, right, you know, the AOC's discussion

1335
01:16:19,600 --> 01:16:22,479
Speaker 2: and others about you know, the change in the world,

1336
01:16:23,520 --> 01:16:26,200
Speaker 2: and I thought that was interesting on a number of levels.

1337
01:16:26,240 --> 01:16:28,560
Speaker 2: But it was an immediate example. And you see it

1338
01:16:28,600 --> 01:16:30,479
Speaker 2: in other countries as well too. You see it a

1339
01:16:30,479 --> 01:16:34,680
Speaker 2: lot more in Europe, and so it'll be interesting to

1340
01:16:34,680 --> 01:16:36,519
Speaker 2: see what happens. But I haven't had any experience where

1341
01:16:36,520 --> 01:16:39,639
Speaker 2: people feel threatened, but I do think it's it's one

1342
01:16:39,640 --> 01:16:42,400
Speaker 2: of the reasons you have. And we saw it in

1343
01:16:42,439 --> 01:16:46,320
Speaker 2: Covid here in Florida, the increase in gun sales where people.

1344
01:16:46,640 --> 01:16:49,439
Speaker 2: I mean, I live on the water in this little

1345
01:16:49,439 --> 01:16:53,000
Speaker 2: town in bel Air, and I was the only I

1346
01:16:53,120 --> 01:16:55,920
Speaker 2: probably should have admit this on a publication, but on

1347
01:16:57,760 --> 01:17:00,439
Speaker 2: the media, but I was the only house on the

1348
01:17:00,439 --> 01:17:04,240
Speaker 2: street that wasn't armed. And I'm not talking about just armed.

1349
01:17:04,280 --> 01:17:07,719
Speaker 2: I'm talking about two three five seven guns. My wife

1350
01:17:07,720 --> 01:17:09,760
Speaker 2: and I, she's a native of Pennsylvania and she have

1351
01:17:09,880 --> 01:17:11,840
Speaker 2: brothers had gone hunting and she said, well, yeah, I

1352
01:17:11,880 --> 01:17:13,040
Speaker 2: know how to use a gun. I go, well, let's

1353
01:17:13,040 --> 01:17:14,920
Speaker 2: go to the gun range because I got to figure

1354
01:17:14,920 --> 01:17:16,760
Speaker 2: this out because if nothing else, I got to be

1355
01:17:16,800 --> 01:17:20,040
Speaker 2: able to talk to my neighbors. So I think that

1356
01:17:20,240 --> 01:17:22,400
Speaker 2: had something. There is some of that.

1357
01:17:22,560 --> 01:17:25,599
Speaker 1: If it's something about Florida. It's so funny. It's like,

1358
01:17:25,920 --> 01:17:27,559
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people that are in your

1359
01:17:27,600 --> 01:17:29,160
Speaker 1: situation who are like, boy, I don't want to be

1360
01:17:29,160 --> 01:17:30,840
Speaker 1: a gun owner, but if everybody else can have a

1361
01:17:30,840 --> 01:17:31,880
Speaker 1: gun around me, I better.

1362
01:17:32,080 --> 01:17:34,080
Speaker 2: Maybe I should feel really stupid, you know.

1363
01:17:34,280 --> 01:17:35,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're like, am I going to be there and

1364
01:17:36,479 --> 01:17:39,880
Speaker 1: like what happened? You know? But that is you know,

1365
01:17:39,960 --> 01:17:42,600
Speaker 1: I'm also one of those who believes in statistics and

1366
01:17:43,240 --> 01:17:46,360
Speaker 1: the numbers say you're more likely to die of a

1367
01:17:46,360 --> 01:17:48,400
Speaker 1: gunshot wound if you have a gun in the house

1368
01:17:48,479 --> 01:17:51,080
Speaker 1: than if you don't have a gun in the house. Yeah,

1369
01:17:51,120 --> 01:17:52,280
Speaker 1: and yeah, I believe that.

1370
01:17:53,000 --> 01:17:54,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I would have to be the guy says,

1371
01:17:54,760 --> 01:17:56,240
Speaker 2: hold on just a minute. I'm just trying to figure

1372
01:17:56,240 --> 01:17:58,320
Speaker 2: out how to load this thing. Give me just a second.

1373
01:18:00,040 --> 01:18:00,160
Speaker 1: One.

1374
01:18:00,439 --> 01:18:02,840
Speaker 2: It wouldn't be pretty. So I thankfully I am married

1375
01:18:02,840 --> 01:18:04,920
Speaker 2: to a very smart woman who knows how to do that.

1376
01:18:05,000 --> 01:18:07,639
Speaker 2: And so we've agreed that if we're under attack, she'll

1377
01:18:07,680 --> 01:18:08,360
Speaker 2: defend us.

1378
01:18:08,560 --> 01:18:11,439
Speaker 1: Well, but basically she's going to survive. You'll be done

1379
01:18:11,479 --> 01:18:13,200
Speaker 1: in like the first couple of days of the.

1380
01:18:13,920 --> 01:18:16,760
Speaker 2: She's mentioned that, actually she's mentioned that.

1381
01:18:17,120 --> 01:18:20,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, when when money will be worthless? And we're trading

1382
01:18:20,760 --> 01:18:25,880
Speaker 1: bottle caps, you know, as our new currency. I joke,

1383
01:18:25,920 --> 01:18:28,639
Speaker 1: except that is the uh kind of the plot line

1384
01:18:28,680 --> 01:18:35,439
Speaker 1: of the TV show Fallout, Yeah, which I I am.

1385
01:18:36,120 --> 01:18:39,160
Speaker 1: I look at the bad guys in Fallout, and all

1386
01:18:39,160 --> 01:18:44,400
Speaker 1: the bad guys now are either corporate like titans, right.

1387
01:18:44,439 --> 01:18:46,880
Speaker 1: Our new bad guys are corporate titans or private equity

1388
01:18:46,880 --> 01:18:50,479
Speaker 1: people right, the the uber and super rich. And you

1389
01:18:50,520 --> 01:18:53,880
Speaker 1: have people complaining that private equity. You just talked about

1390
01:18:53,880 --> 01:18:57,320
Speaker 1: them investing in doctors' offices and Dennis practices and you've

1391
01:18:57,360 --> 01:19:02,200
Speaker 1: got you know, buying up houses, the parental properties and stuff.

1392
01:19:03,320 --> 01:19:07,000
Speaker 1: Do folks in private equity know that their brand is

1393
01:19:07,680 --> 01:19:08,960
Speaker 1: for ship these days?

1394
01:19:09,880 --> 01:19:13,960
Speaker 2: You know, it's not that positive, you know, it's it's

1395
01:19:14,000 --> 01:19:16,759
Speaker 2: it's a great question, and the short answer is yes.

1396
01:19:17,160 --> 01:19:19,439
Speaker 2: And this has been the same as people that made

1397
01:19:19,479 --> 01:19:21,200
Speaker 2: a lot of money on Wall Street for many years.

1398
01:19:21,200 --> 01:19:22,880
Speaker 2: They weren't in the business to be liked. They were

1399
01:19:22,880 --> 01:19:26,040
Speaker 2: in the business to get rich. And I think that's

1400
01:19:26,200 --> 01:19:28,880
Speaker 2: I think that still still is out there. I mean

1401
01:19:28,920 --> 01:19:33,360
Speaker 2: they think and the rationalization is their investments into companies

1402
01:19:34,560 --> 01:19:37,720
Speaker 2: create the capital for those companies to do better, and

1403
01:19:37,800 --> 01:19:41,839
Speaker 2: so they rationalize that and you know, they defend themselves

1404
01:19:41,840 --> 01:19:45,880
Speaker 2: against carried interest in other things, but you know, it's it's, it's, it's,

1405
01:19:45,920 --> 01:19:48,000
Speaker 2: it's an issue, but they don't. They don't really worry

1406
01:19:48,000 --> 01:19:49,720
Speaker 2: as much about what they thought of as looking for

1407
01:19:49,760 --> 01:19:53,040
Speaker 2: the next best investment opportunity. There's a ton of private

1408
01:19:53,080 --> 01:19:57,120
Speaker 2: equity cash out there looking for places to invest in things.

1409
01:19:57,160 --> 01:20:00,000
Speaker 2: I mean, roofing companies here in Florida are now being

1410
01:20:00,080 --> 01:20:03,280
Speaker 2: bought up, independent car washes, little car washes.

1411
01:20:04,160 --> 01:20:05,799
Speaker 1: Private equity is rolling up.

1412
01:20:06,120 --> 01:20:10,559
Speaker 2: Roofers, roofers, and and two years ago the big thing

1413
01:20:10,640 --> 01:20:13,920
Speaker 2: was car washes. So they look for places too.

1414
01:20:14,040 --> 01:20:16,800
Speaker 1: Thought car washers were all money laundering fronts, I mean,

1415
01:20:17,640 --> 01:20:20,600
Speaker 1: semi facetious, but not a present pacetious.

1416
01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:24,280
Speaker 2: I think I think that was the the extension of laundromats, right,

1417
01:20:24,320 --> 01:20:26,880
Speaker 2: I mean it was wherever, wherever cash was you. But

1418
01:20:27,439 --> 01:20:31,880
Speaker 2: you know, I'm relatively I'm relatively positive about the economy

1419
01:20:31,920 --> 01:20:34,280
Speaker 2: for for a bunch of reasons that may or may

1420
01:20:34,280 --> 01:20:37,280
Speaker 2: not get talked about here. So the private equities some

1421
01:20:37,479 --> 01:20:40,640
Speaker 2: degree provides some liquidity for folks that are looking to

1422
01:20:40,680 --> 01:20:43,360
Speaker 2: sell their businesses that might not otherwise have been able

1423
01:20:43,400 --> 01:20:45,519
Speaker 2: to sell. Now the question is what do they do

1424
01:20:45,640 --> 01:20:49,360
Speaker 2: with it afterwards? That's that's that's the big criticism. Right,

1425
01:20:49,400 --> 01:20:51,560
Speaker 2: they take a business, they need to make it profitable

1426
01:20:51,600 --> 01:20:53,600
Speaker 2: in five years. They don't have that time horizon. We

1427
01:20:53,640 --> 01:20:56,800
Speaker 2: spoke about a little while ago about family offices. So

1428
01:20:56,840 --> 01:21:00,479
Speaker 2: they do things cutting services, firing people, doing all sorts

1429
01:21:00,520 --> 01:21:01,360
Speaker 2: of things that are well.

1430
01:21:01,439 --> 01:21:04,240
Speaker 1: Nursing homes has been a classic case. I mean, look,

1431
01:21:04,280 --> 01:21:07,160
Speaker 1: I get what I get. What's attractive to private equity

1432
01:21:07,160 --> 01:21:09,280
Speaker 1: when you do roll ups like it makes sense to

1433
01:21:09,320 --> 01:21:11,920
Speaker 1: me about roofers. Car washes make less sense to me,

1434
01:21:11,960 --> 01:21:15,080
Speaker 1: but roofers makes sense to me because in Florida you

1435
01:21:15,160 --> 01:21:20,280
Speaker 1: suddenly will have a steady stream of government controlled cash

1436
01:21:20,400 --> 01:21:23,400
Speaker 1: that is suddenly going to pay pay for bills or

1437
01:21:23,720 --> 01:21:26,840
Speaker 1: with a doctor's offices. It's Medicare with you know that

1438
01:21:26,920 --> 01:21:30,840
Speaker 1: there is a source of constant revenue that comes in,

1439
01:21:30,880 --> 01:21:35,040
Speaker 1: which for private equity is attractive. So I sort of

1440
01:21:35,160 --> 01:21:37,559
Speaker 1: get maybe what they're thinking on the roof of front

1441
01:21:37,600 --> 01:21:40,439
Speaker 1: that if you've cornered the market on roofers, you're gonna

1442
01:21:40,439 --> 01:21:44,479
Speaker 1: have all this FEMA aid coming in and insurance you know,

1443
01:21:45,040 --> 01:21:49,280
Speaker 1: money automatically coming You're not you're not as reliant on

1444
01:21:49,439 --> 01:21:54,200
Speaker 1: individual customers as you are on sort of you know,

1445
01:21:54,479 --> 01:21:59,040
Speaker 1: collect a collection of customers that are forced to use

1446
01:21:59,080 --> 01:21:59,920
Speaker 1: your service.

1447
01:22:00,200 --> 01:22:03,000
Speaker 2: Because then if they can find businesses that have automatic,

1448
01:22:03,080 --> 01:22:06,240
Speaker 2: repeatable cash flow where somebody's put them on a you know,

1449
01:22:06,280 --> 01:22:08,559
Speaker 2: on a on some kind of contract where they pay

1450
01:22:08,560 --> 01:22:10,360
Speaker 2: two hundred a month or one hundred and fifty a month,

1451
01:22:10,439 --> 01:22:12,639
Speaker 2: whether it's a gym or you know, it's it's it's

1452
01:22:12,680 --> 01:22:14,840
Speaker 2: the whole idea of the cell phone business, right. They

1453
01:22:14,960 --> 01:22:19,040
Speaker 2: like that repeatable, dependable cash flow that gives evaluation higher.

1454
01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:21,240
Speaker 2: I have a good friend who owns a series of

1455
01:22:21,240 --> 01:22:24,400
Speaker 2: coffee shops. The private equity are looking at these coffee

1456
01:22:24,400 --> 01:22:30,160
Speaker 2: shops being able to monetize them. Again, it's it's interesting.

1457
01:22:30,200 --> 01:22:32,960
Speaker 2: It's entrepreneurism and it's a it's I'm not sure if

1458
01:22:33,000 --> 01:22:35,640
Speaker 2: it's just best or it's worse, but it's entrepreneurs.

1459
01:22:35,240 --> 01:22:38,320
Speaker 1: I think we're trying to figure that out, right. It's like, it's,

1460
01:22:38,800 --> 01:22:42,120
Speaker 1: you know, it's interesting as I've been trying to start

1461
01:22:42,200 --> 01:22:46,920
Speaker 1: a couple of small what comparison with the small businesses,

1462
01:22:47,600 --> 01:22:51,840
Speaker 1: you know, the structure is an impediment, right, thinking about

1463
01:22:51,880 --> 01:22:54,559
Speaker 1: well how can I afford you know, I could afford

1464
01:22:54,600 --> 01:22:56,760
Speaker 1: to pay salaries, but I can't afford the benefits for

1465
01:22:56,840 --> 01:23:01,160
Speaker 1: salaries like that. And you know, you know, a big

1466
01:23:01,320 --> 01:23:06,040
Speaker 1: entity can sort of can can weather that a small startup.

1467
01:23:06,240 --> 01:23:09,320
Speaker 1: This feels like it's never been harder to start up

1468
01:23:09,760 --> 01:23:13,720
Speaker 1: a small business that's more than five employees. That that

1469
01:23:13,880 --> 01:23:16,040
Speaker 1: the you know, it's one thing to have like five

1470
01:23:16,080 --> 01:23:19,240
Speaker 1: employees or less, right, super small business basically do it yourself.

1471
01:23:19,680 --> 01:23:22,680
Speaker 1: Then there's well, no, no, no, You're you're going to

1472
01:23:22,760 --> 01:23:26,479
Speaker 1: have a payroll of somewhere between say six and twenty.

1473
01:23:27,720 --> 01:23:30,280
Speaker 1: That feels like a nightmare now to start a business

1474
01:23:30,360 --> 01:23:33,040
Speaker 1: like that, and and that kind of feels like that

1475
01:23:33,080 --> 01:23:34,080
Speaker 1: shouldn't be the case.

1476
01:23:34,760 --> 01:23:37,400
Speaker 2: Payroll companies take off some of that challenge, right where

1477
01:23:37,400 --> 01:23:39,439
Speaker 2: you can have somebody do all that for a couple

1478
01:23:39,439 --> 01:23:42,040
Speaker 2: of cents per employee. But you're right, it's not as

1479
01:23:42,040 --> 01:23:44,760
Speaker 2: easy as just doing your thing. You've got. I mean,

1480
01:23:44,800 --> 01:23:46,960
Speaker 2: you talk to anybody that's in a restaurant business or

1481
01:23:46,960 --> 01:23:49,320
Speaker 2: anybody that's a doctor. They take the weekends to fill

1482
01:23:49,360 --> 01:23:52,360
Speaker 2: out insurance forms, right in the case of the restaurant business. There,

1483
01:23:52,800 --> 01:23:57,360
Speaker 2: So it is, it's it's true entrepreneurship and small businesses.

1484
01:23:57,640 --> 01:23:59,720
Speaker 2: And you know, the stab, right, But our country is

1485
01:23:59,720 --> 01:24:03,439
Speaker 2: prime early small businesses, and so that's you know, it's

1486
01:24:03,560 --> 01:24:06,160
Speaker 2: it's it's something that needs to grow and needs to continue.

1487
01:24:06,160 --> 01:24:06,839
Speaker 2: But it's hard.

1488
01:24:07,080 --> 01:24:09,759
Speaker 1: They don't you think we have the laws in place

1489
01:24:09,800 --> 01:24:13,519
Speaker 1: that encourage small business startups or not, Because I would

1490
01:24:13,640 --> 01:24:14,400
Speaker 1: argue we don't.

1491
01:24:15,240 --> 01:24:17,240
Speaker 2: I agree with you. I agree with you. I think

1492
01:24:17,240 --> 01:24:19,120
Speaker 2: it's one of the reasons that you know, as much

1493
01:24:19,120 --> 01:24:22,080
Speaker 2: as economists are crawling for interest rates to stay where

1494
01:24:22,080 --> 01:24:24,439
Speaker 2: they are because the fear of inflation coming back, I

1495
01:24:24,439 --> 01:24:27,480
Speaker 2: think interest rates are too high for that exact example.

1496
01:24:28,120 --> 01:24:30,360
Speaker 2: Folks are having a lot of trouble getting capital, and

1497
01:24:30,400 --> 01:24:33,120
Speaker 2: if they can get it, the interest rate is ridiculously high.

1498
01:24:33,800 --> 01:24:35,360
Speaker 2: So forget about even buying a house.

1499
01:24:35,400 --> 01:24:38,400
Speaker 1: Just let me. I mean, I'll give you two items

1500
01:24:38,400 --> 01:24:42,759
Speaker 1: that I never thought i'd sound like a Bernie Sanders

1501
01:24:42,840 --> 01:24:45,879
Speaker 1: on this. But if you took the burden of healthcare

1502
01:24:45,920 --> 01:24:52,040
Speaker 1: and childcare off of a business owner to as a benefit,

1503
01:24:52,400 --> 01:24:56,400
Speaker 1: and the government was helping with that, I could probably

1504
01:24:56,400 --> 01:24:57,920
Speaker 1: start up this business a lot sooner.

1505
01:24:58,560 --> 01:25:01,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, it's not Bernie Sanders, that's

1506
01:25:01,280 --> 01:25:04,160
Speaker 2: just become common sense. But you're right, that's where he

1507
01:25:04,200 --> 01:25:05,280
Speaker 2: would But you know.

1508
01:25:05,400 --> 01:25:07,519
Speaker 1: And that's those that want to fight it say, oh,

1509
01:25:07,520 --> 01:25:10,640
Speaker 1: that's socialism. It's like, no, this is government making it

1510
01:25:10,680 --> 01:25:14,760
Speaker 1: easier to start a small business.

1511
01:25:13,439 --> 01:25:16,880
Speaker 2: Halfway pitching this. Yeah, there's a halfway step in between, right,

1512
01:25:16,920 --> 01:25:20,160
Speaker 2: And that's making more access to capital, and there there

1513
01:25:20,200 --> 01:25:23,080
Speaker 2: are a lot of proposals out there for that. And

1514
01:25:23,400 --> 01:25:28,080
Speaker 2: again that's sometimes private equity. That's sometimes banks. Bank regulations

1515
01:25:28,120 --> 01:25:31,320
Speaker 2: on the regional bank side are ridiculous, really ridiculous.

1516
01:25:31,640 --> 01:25:35,839
Speaker 1: I'm not and I get it. It's like, look, the regional,

1517
01:25:35,920 --> 01:25:39,120
Speaker 1: the small and regional banks are paying a penalty for

1518
01:25:39,160 --> 01:25:40,920
Speaker 1: the sins of the of Layman brothers.

1519
01:25:40,920 --> 01:25:43,839
Speaker 2: Basically, there's no question that's it. I mean, well, put.

1520
01:25:53,720 --> 01:25:57,920
Speaker 1: Why what's your sense in the public markets? Is there

1521
01:25:58,040 --> 01:26:01,320
Speaker 1: no longer as much confidence in the public markets. It

1522
01:26:01,360 --> 01:26:03,479
Speaker 1: seems like there are more and more companies that don't

1523
01:26:03,479 --> 01:26:06,479
Speaker 1: want the hassle of shareholders, don't want the hassle of

1524
01:26:08,240 --> 01:26:12,679
Speaker 1: quarterly filings, things like that, and more and more are

1525
01:26:14,120 --> 01:26:16,240
Speaker 1: I would like to stay as private companies.

1526
01:26:17,120 --> 01:26:21,120
Speaker 2: There is a trend, there is a trend for executive buildings,

1527
01:26:20,800 --> 01:26:23,639
Speaker 2: less reporting. You're seeing it even more with the AI

1528
01:26:23,720 --> 01:26:30,040
Speaker 2: companies right andthropic Open AI they they can, they can

1529
01:26:30,280 --> 01:26:32,960
Speaker 2: set an artificial valuation of the company. Nobody can really

1530
01:26:33,080 --> 01:26:37,120
Speaker 2: challenge that. You're seeing some of that. I'm not necessarily

1531
01:26:37,120 --> 01:26:40,960
Speaker 2: sure that's a lack of confidence in the public markets.

1532
01:26:41,080 --> 01:26:43,280
Speaker 2: I just don't think they need the capital because they're

1533
01:26:43,280 --> 01:26:46,120
Speaker 2: getting plenty of capital from private sources. Remember, one of

1534
01:26:46,160 --> 01:26:50,320
Speaker 2: the reasons a company goes public is access to unlimited capital. Frankly,

1535
01:26:50,400 --> 01:26:52,839
Speaker 2: right now in our society, we have access to unlimited

1536
01:26:52,840 --> 01:26:55,719
Speaker 2: private capital. So I think that's a lot of the driver,

1537
01:26:55,880 --> 01:26:59,719
Speaker 2: more so than just the fact that and talking about

1538
01:26:59,720 --> 01:27:03,520
Speaker 2: condens in the public markets from a retail client perspective,

1539
01:27:03,600 --> 01:27:05,680
Speaker 2: I see it actually being the reverse. I see a

1540
01:27:05,720 --> 01:27:08,720
Speaker 2: lot of confidence. Robin Hood is killing it because they're

1541
01:27:08,760 --> 01:27:11,160
Speaker 2: opening so many accounts for young investors who want to

1542
01:27:11,200 --> 01:27:14,679
Speaker 2: be part of the markets. So I think I think

1543
01:27:14,720 --> 01:27:18,559
Speaker 2: in that way, it's it's it's pretty strong. You see

1544
01:27:18,600 --> 01:27:21,479
Speaker 2: examples of it. You see examples of it in the

1545
01:27:21,479 --> 01:27:24,400
Speaker 2: way that younger people are operating just right now. Obviously

1546
01:27:24,439 --> 01:27:26,960
Speaker 2: you see them doing these meme stop type of things,

1547
01:27:27,000 --> 01:27:31,040
Speaker 2: which is bordering on a little insanity, But generally speaking,

1548
01:27:31,320 --> 01:27:32,680
Speaker 2: they like to invest.

1549
01:27:34,080 --> 01:27:36,200
Speaker 1: Well do they like to invest or? Are they gambling?

1550
01:27:37,439 --> 01:27:43,200
Speaker 1: One of that. Yeah, I mean, the we're the prediction

1551
01:27:43,960 --> 01:27:48,479
Speaker 1: of gambling houses because I just refuse to call them markets. Yes,

1552
01:27:48,800 --> 01:27:51,840
Speaker 1: it was a market per se, but it is I

1553
01:27:51,880 --> 01:27:55,200
Speaker 1: think it's a rigged market. I'm talking about if.

1554
01:27:55,040 --> 01:27:57,639
Speaker 2: They're buying an ETF and S and P five hundred,

1555
01:27:57,960 --> 01:28:01,360
Speaker 2: that's necessarily right, right, yeah, no, you're right, you're right.

1556
01:28:01,400 --> 01:28:04,080
Speaker 1: But but I do think we've we're marketing, you know,

1557
01:28:04,080 --> 01:28:07,960
Speaker 1: we're sort of we're making everything seem like a a

1558
01:28:09,040 --> 01:28:12,920
Speaker 1: what do you we commoditizing monetizing everything, right, yeah, you know,

1559
01:28:13,000 --> 01:28:16,439
Speaker 1: I assume we're you know, you're gonna be instead of

1560
01:28:16,800 --> 01:28:19,840
Speaker 1: paying you know, how do you pay your quarterback in

1561
01:28:19,880 --> 01:28:22,600
Speaker 1: college football? You know, the fans may be asked to

1562
01:28:22,600 --> 01:28:25,920
Speaker 1: buy a share of I'm a big University of Miami guy.

1563
01:28:26,280 --> 01:28:28,400
Speaker 1: You know, we might you know, I'm gonna you know,

1564
01:28:28,479 --> 01:28:31,519
Speaker 1: can you buy ten shares of Carson Beck's salary? Like

1565
01:28:31,560 --> 01:28:33,400
Speaker 1: why do I have a feeling that? And then and

1566
01:28:33,400 --> 01:28:35,559
Speaker 1: then I might trade it on a market because oh

1567
01:28:35,640 --> 01:28:37,840
Speaker 1: he's doing well, somebody will buy it. It's worth more

1568
01:28:37,880 --> 01:28:40,920
Speaker 1: now because he might be a Heisman Trophy candidate. I mean,

1569
01:28:41,400 --> 01:28:44,040
Speaker 1: I guess that's what the prediction markets are are are

1570
01:28:44,160 --> 01:28:47,600
Speaker 1: serving as in some form or another. I don't know

1571
01:28:47,640 --> 01:28:48,439
Speaker 1: if we need all that.

1572
01:28:48,640 --> 01:28:53,759
Speaker 2: I'm I never understood the portal concept in college sports

1573
01:28:53,800 --> 01:28:56,840
Speaker 2: where somebody can go and to another school. I mean,

1574
01:28:56,920 --> 01:28:58,559
Speaker 2: can you imagine being a coach. I think that's why

1575
01:28:58,680 --> 01:28:59,719
Speaker 2: Luce Saban said, that's.

1576
01:29:00,040 --> 01:29:03,920
Speaker 1: On you're showing your lou Saban was a Miami guy.

1577
01:29:04,160 --> 01:29:08,479
Speaker 1: Nick Saban, not related to but thank you man who

1578
01:29:08,560 --> 01:29:11,960
Speaker 1: saved Miami football. So I always have a strong feeling,

1579
01:29:12,360 --> 01:29:13,479
Speaker 1: a warm feeling about him.

1580
01:29:13,520 --> 01:29:15,920
Speaker 2: Listen, you you're you should have been very proud. I

1581
01:29:15,920 --> 01:29:18,400
Speaker 2: hope you were. In the National National Championship game. They

1582
01:29:18,479 --> 01:29:21,360
Speaker 2: played them tough. That was that was a great game.

1583
01:29:21,520 --> 01:29:24,120
Speaker 2: So we were all we were all kind of cheering

1584
01:29:24,160 --> 01:29:26,240
Speaker 2: down here because we want to buds.

1585
01:29:26,400 --> 01:29:29,000
Speaker 1: First time Floridians seemed to like, yeah, let's root for

1586
01:29:29,040 --> 01:29:31,400
Speaker 1: my like Miami usually was the black hat team, you know,

1587
01:29:31,680 --> 01:29:33,360
Speaker 1: for the rest of the day, had a lot of support.

1588
01:29:35,080 --> 01:29:37,439
Speaker 1: I could feel it. For the first time. Miami wasn't hated.

1589
01:29:37,920 --> 01:29:40,080
Speaker 2: Uh but you know, there is there is a sea change,

1590
01:29:40,160 --> 01:29:43,800
Speaker 2: Chuck that's going on. Economically. I'm not sure I'm qualified

1591
01:29:43,840 --> 01:29:46,960
Speaker 2: to to to say where it's going to end up,

1592
01:29:47,000 --> 01:29:51,439
Speaker 2: but I see there's a casino like approach to certain markets.

1593
01:29:51,479 --> 01:29:54,320
Speaker 2: You didn't want to call them markets. They are markets technically,

1594
01:29:54,360 --> 01:29:56,480
Speaker 2: but it's it's a it's a.

1595
01:29:57,080 --> 01:30:00,559
Speaker 1: Town has an advantage that you can't see, you know,

1596
01:30:00,760 --> 01:30:03,080
Speaker 1: I don't you know, for instance, on slot machines, none

1597
01:30:03,080 --> 01:30:07,200
Speaker 1: of us know exactly how that algorithm works in those

1598
01:30:07,200 --> 01:30:11,240
Speaker 1: slot machines, nobody, you know, but somebody has the answer

1599
01:30:11,280 --> 01:30:15,559
Speaker 1: to that. Somebody knows when that slot machine one, you know,

1600
01:30:15,600 --> 01:30:18,320
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty three, you know on the floor

1601
01:30:18,520 --> 01:30:21,839
Speaker 1: is going to pay out. You know, you know, somebody

1602
01:30:21,920 --> 01:30:24,839
Speaker 1: knows the answer. And that's my concern about these prediction markets,

1603
01:30:25,320 --> 01:30:27,720
Speaker 1: is that somebody knows the answer and can gain it.

1604
01:30:28,479 --> 01:30:30,880
Speaker 2: I think there's you know, where we're seeing the prediction

1605
01:30:30,960 --> 01:30:32,920
Speaker 2: markets now, for example, I mean, we've had a couple

1606
01:30:32,960 --> 01:30:35,680
Speaker 2: of good years in the market, and the projection is

1607
01:30:35,720 --> 01:30:39,480
Speaker 2: for twenty six to be good too, until it becomes

1608
01:30:39,920 --> 01:30:42,800
Speaker 2: fairly clear. If it becomes fairly clear that there might

1609
01:30:42,800 --> 01:30:46,120
Speaker 2: be a wholesale change politically in the midterms, and then

1610
01:30:46,120 --> 01:30:48,320
Speaker 2: you're seeing all of a sudden things look a little

1611
01:30:48,320 --> 01:30:51,679
Speaker 2: bit different, and so we're already trying to game that out,

1612
01:30:52,560 --> 01:30:56,400
Speaker 2: and that could be very interesting. If the house flips,

1613
01:30:57,479 --> 01:31:00,000
Speaker 2: you'll see people, you know, draw back. I think how

1614
01:31:00,080 --> 01:31:02,240
Speaker 2: of the market you'll see, Yeah.

1615
01:31:02,080 --> 01:31:03,960
Speaker 1: And then somebody is going to point out the chart

1616
01:31:04,040 --> 01:31:06,200
Speaker 1: that shows how well the market does with divide.

1617
01:31:05,920 --> 01:31:09,439
Speaker 2: Of government divided government. And in fact, if you go

1618
01:31:09,479 --> 01:31:12,439
Speaker 2: a little further back, is you know Democrats, you know,

1619
01:31:12,520 --> 01:31:15,439
Speaker 2: because they had this reputation for spending more money, actually

1620
01:31:15,439 --> 01:31:16,960
Speaker 2: stock markets did pretty well under.

1621
01:31:16,840 --> 01:31:20,320
Speaker 1: Print Democratic presidents, right have.

1622
01:31:20,400 --> 01:31:22,439
Speaker 2: All I get called a liar when I say that.

1623
01:31:22,600 --> 01:31:25,400
Speaker 1: It's just a fact. I mean, it's just been how

1624
01:31:25,400 --> 01:31:28,920
Speaker 1: it's worked going back to it goes back to Reagan, right,

1625
01:31:29,040 --> 01:31:30,679
Speaker 1: Carter and Reagan, but it goes back.

1626
01:31:30,520 --> 01:31:35,519
Speaker 2: In politically though. I think that you asked this earlier

1627
01:31:35,560 --> 01:31:37,519
Speaker 2: in the discussion, but I think you're going to see

1628
01:31:37,560 --> 01:31:40,720
Speaker 2: more and more of an impact politically on economic situations

1629
01:31:40,720 --> 01:31:43,880
Speaker 2: going forward. And I think it's it's a byproduct of

1630
01:31:43,920 --> 01:31:48,280
Speaker 2: what's happened over the last few years, particularly with President Trump.

1631
01:31:48,560 --> 01:31:51,559
Speaker 2: I think regardless of which way it goes, you're going

1632
01:31:51,640 --> 01:31:53,320
Speaker 2: to have a seesaw type of effect.

1633
01:31:54,120 --> 01:31:58,000
Speaker 1: Well, I don't expect you to say this, but I'm

1634
01:31:58,000 --> 01:31:59,360
Speaker 1: going to say this, and I'm going to ask you

1635
01:31:59,360 --> 01:32:03,080
Speaker 1: whether this is how some impact the more transactional that

1636
01:32:03,120 --> 01:32:06,320
Speaker 1: Trump presents himself as. So you know, I talked about

1637
01:32:06,320 --> 01:32:09,000
Speaker 1: the crypto industry who just basically got in bed with him,

1638
01:32:09,120 --> 01:32:11,640
Speaker 1: and AI decided to get in bed, like, look, we

1639
01:32:11,680 --> 01:32:14,080
Speaker 1: can get we can get more of what we want

1640
01:32:14,120 --> 01:32:16,080
Speaker 1: out of here. Let's just make this bet in the

1641
01:32:16,120 --> 01:32:19,640
Speaker 1: moment and we'll deal with We'll deal with when the

1642
01:32:19,680 --> 01:32:21,760
Speaker 1: other party gets power. We'll deal with them when we

1643
01:32:21,840 --> 01:32:25,720
Speaker 1: when they get power, and we'll figure it out. And

1644
01:32:27,360 --> 01:32:30,360
Speaker 1: the concern I have is this is like step one

1645
01:32:30,400 --> 01:32:34,320
Speaker 1: to kleptocracy. And let me just ask you this, when

1646
01:32:34,360 --> 01:32:37,080
Speaker 1: do you tell a client be careful investing in country

1647
01:32:37,360 --> 01:32:40,080
Speaker 1: X because the government is too involved in the economy.

1648
01:32:41,840 --> 01:32:44,439
Speaker 2: I haven't had that conversation yet, but I do a

1649
01:32:44,479 --> 01:32:49,040
Speaker 2: fair amount of interviews Great Britain, and of course Farage

1650
01:32:49,080 --> 01:32:51,840
Speaker 2: coming in. I mean, there's an example of something that

1651
01:32:52,040 --> 01:32:54,600
Speaker 2: you have to keep an eye on. And I was

1652
01:32:54,600 --> 01:32:55,719
Speaker 2: thinking about recently.

1653
01:32:56,120 --> 01:32:59,120
Speaker 1: You know, Turkey's a place that is a on one hand,

1654
01:32:59,200 --> 01:33:02,679
Speaker 1: isn't an interesting, vibrant economy on the and and maybe

1655
01:33:02,720 --> 01:33:06,000
Speaker 1: an investable place on the other hand. I wouldn't trust

1656
01:33:06,000 --> 01:33:06,559
Speaker 1: that government.

1657
01:33:07,200 --> 01:33:09,680
Speaker 2: But Turkey, Turkey is not a conversation that comes up

1658
01:33:09,760 --> 01:33:12,680
Speaker 2: very regularly for investing. Now, Brazil, that's something we hear

1659
01:33:12,720 --> 01:33:14,920
Speaker 2: a lot about. And Brazil was on fire last year,

1660
01:33:15,200 --> 01:33:18,080
Speaker 2: so it did very well. So yeah, I mean, you

1661
01:33:18,200 --> 01:33:20,840
Speaker 2: have to watch it. But I think I think you know,

1662
01:33:21,000 --> 01:33:24,280
Speaker 2: what worries me about some of the indications that the

1663
01:33:24,320 --> 01:33:27,760
Speaker 2: FED isn't as independent as we would like. So what

1664
01:33:27,880 --> 01:33:31,120
Speaker 2: worries me about more than the stock market. What worries

1665
01:33:31,160 --> 01:33:33,840
Speaker 2: me is the bond market. And the bond market picks

1666
01:33:33,920 --> 01:33:37,320
Speaker 2: up these these inconsistencies that are going on economically, and

1667
01:33:37,320 --> 01:33:39,479
Speaker 2: I think we're going to see more potential for that.

1668
01:33:39,560 --> 01:33:43,400
Speaker 2: Goldman Sacks is predicting middle single digit returns and equity

1669
01:33:43,439 --> 01:33:46,680
Speaker 2: markets for the next couple of years, which which surprised

1670
01:33:46,720 --> 01:33:48,679
Speaker 2: a lot of us, and they continue to double down

1671
01:33:48,680 --> 01:33:52,800
Speaker 2: on that. I'm I'm not sure that's true. I see,

1672
01:33:52,920 --> 01:33:54,080
Speaker 2: I see some potential.

1673
01:33:53,760 --> 01:33:55,280
Speaker 1: For what do you think they're saying that they just

1674
01:33:55,280 --> 01:33:57,559
Speaker 1: don't have confidence in the in the central bank.

1675
01:33:58,479 --> 01:34:02,720
Speaker 2: That's the dollar, the central bank. I think the uncertainty

1676
01:34:03,040 --> 01:34:05,879
Speaker 2: not knowing about terrorists. I think the Supreme Court, frankly

1677
01:34:05,960 --> 01:34:08,479
Speaker 2: is going to go against the terrorists, but there's no

1678
01:34:08,600 --> 01:34:11,080
Speaker 2: mechanism that we have to be able to refund one

1679
01:34:11,120 --> 01:34:13,479
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five billion dollars, which is roughly what's

1680
01:34:13,560 --> 01:34:15,800
Speaker 2: been collected. So I think they're going to split the

1681
01:34:15,800 --> 01:34:17,760
Speaker 2: baby and say, look, you don't have to give back

1682
01:34:17,800 --> 01:34:19,320
Speaker 2: the teriffs that you got, but you can't do it

1683
01:34:19,400 --> 01:34:22,160
Speaker 2: going forward. So administration is going to be forced to

1684
01:34:22,160 --> 01:34:25,840
Speaker 2: find another avenue for that. They'll probably find something. But

1685
01:34:25,880 --> 01:34:28,479
Speaker 2: the point is this uncertainty and not knowing what's going

1686
01:34:28,560 --> 01:34:31,599
Speaker 2: to happen. I think Goldman's is predicting that that's going

1687
01:34:31,680 --> 01:34:35,719
Speaker 2: to impact company's earnings. It's going to impact their businesses,

1688
01:34:35,960 --> 01:34:39,400
Speaker 2: and we've seen some of that already, so it's the

1689
01:34:39,439 --> 01:34:42,800
Speaker 2: next couple of years. I actually, I actually think they're

1690
01:34:42,840 --> 01:34:46,280
Speaker 2: going to be more interesting from a volatility standpoint.

1691
01:34:46,760 --> 01:34:51,720
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting. Why why do you because well you

1692
01:34:51,760 --> 01:34:53,920
Speaker 1: said two different things here, and that's why I want

1693
01:34:54,000 --> 01:34:56,400
Speaker 1: I want to clarify as we as we land this play.

1694
01:34:57,160 --> 01:34:59,360
Speaker 1: You seem to be pretty a little more bullish on

1695
01:34:59,400 --> 01:35:03,240
Speaker 1: this year economically than most people. So let's unpack that.

1696
01:35:03,360 --> 01:35:08,799
Speaker 2: Why companies' earnings are excellent and they continue to revise

1697
01:35:08,840 --> 01:35:13,280
Speaker 2: them upwards. They're very lean and they've stayed lean after COVID.

1698
01:35:13,560 --> 01:35:17,120
Speaker 2: That's why you don't see unemployment changing all that dramatically today.

1699
01:35:17,600 --> 01:35:20,240
Speaker 2: Michael Barr in his speech, one of the FED governors

1700
01:35:20,240 --> 01:35:23,960
Speaker 2: actually talked about the disruption short term major disruption the

1701
01:35:24,000 --> 01:35:27,759
Speaker 2: labor markets that AI is going to produce. So that's

1702
01:35:27,800 --> 01:35:29,880
Speaker 2: the thing that I worry about coming down the road.

1703
01:35:29,960 --> 01:35:31,840
Speaker 2: But for the next and we used to look at

1704
01:35:31,840 --> 01:35:34,000
Speaker 2: things three to five years. Now we're looking at things

1705
01:35:34,000 --> 01:35:36,800
Speaker 2: as three to six months. In the three to six

1706
01:35:36,840 --> 01:35:41,439
Speaker 2: months period, I'm pretty positive after those times, it's we're

1707
01:35:41,439 --> 01:35:42,120
Speaker 2: not predicting.

1708
01:35:43,920 --> 01:35:46,960
Speaker 1: How much do you look at the what happened to

1709
01:35:47,000 --> 01:35:53,479
Speaker 1: the railroads in the eighteen seventies and eighties and certainly

1710
01:35:53,520 --> 01:35:55,640
Speaker 1: what happened in the UK, And how much do you

1711
01:35:55,680 --> 01:35:59,040
Speaker 1: think that AI investors ought to be thinking about that?

1712
01:36:00,000 --> 01:36:02,760
Speaker 2: Perhaps not AI investors as much as software companies. I

1713
01:36:02,760 --> 01:36:06,080
Speaker 2: think it's very possible that software companies are some of

1714
01:36:06,120 --> 01:36:08,800
Speaker 2: the casualties to that where AI can replace them. And

1715
01:36:08,920 --> 01:36:10,880
Speaker 2: it takes three to six months to write code by

1716
01:36:10,880 --> 01:36:12,680
Speaker 2: somebody that's really good, a I might do it in

1717
01:36:12,720 --> 01:36:16,000
Speaker 2: twelve minutes, so that's going to be a challenge for

1718
01:36:16,040 --> 01:36:17,080
Speaker 2: some software companies.

1719
01:36:17,080 --> 01:36:18,840
Speaker 1: I also hear you there, but I kind of feel

1720
01:36:18,840 --> 01:36:22,400
Speaker 1: like I kind of feel like this was an overreaction

1721
01:36:22,520 --> 01:36:26,479
Speaker 1: about software companies because you still want expertise, Like I

1722
01:36:26,520 --> 01:36:32,439
Speaker 1: want to train musician to oversee AI trying to compose music.

1723
01:36:32,600 --> 01:36:35,800
Speaker 1: I don't want just some random schmengy doing it right.

1724
01:36:35,880 --> 01:36:43,240
Speaker 1: So I still want a software you know, one time

1725
01:36:43,400 --> 01:36:45,160
Speaker 1: Inventor and Code are overseeing this.

1726
01:36:46,200 --> 01:36:48,439
Speaker 2: I agree, and I think it was an overreaction. They

1727
01:36:48,439 --> 01:36:50,400
Speaker 2: threw the baby out with the bathwater. You're not going

1728
01:36:50,439 --> 01:36:52,880
Speaker 2: to replace a crowd strike or a snowflake. Those are

1729
01:36:53,040 --> 01:36:56,559
Speaker 2: essential software companies that are doing essential work right. But

1730
01:36:56,640 --> 01:36:59,439
Speaker 2: I think as that refines over the next year to three,

1731
01:37:00,040 --> 01:37:02,240
Speaker 2: going to see some of them be casualties for this.

1732
01:37:02,360 --> 01:37:04,760
Speaker 2: And I can't name names in that, and I can't

1733
01:37:04,760 --> 01:37:07,439
Speaker 2: even think that far ahead, but I'm sure that that's

1734
01:37:07,479 --> 01:37:10,200
Speaker 2: going to be an occurrence. But keep in mind, this

1735
01:37:10,280 --> 01:37:14,080
Speaker 2: AI is only in the second inning. They're just fumbling around.

1736
01:37:14,120 --> 01:37:15,519
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know how many times you hit

1737
01:37:15,600 --> 01:37:19,000
Speaker 2: chet GBT, but it's kind of amazing, whether it's that

1738
01:37:19,160 --> 01:37:22,040
Speaker 2: or Gemini, how many questions you get answered right. And

1739
01:37:22,080 --> 01:37:25,320
Speaker 2: this is before even keep in mind a gentic Seri

1740
01:37:25,520 --> 01:37:28,559
Speaker 2: is coming. That's probably by the end of the year

1741
01:37:29,000 --> 01:37:32,240
Speaker 2: that people there's roughly two million iPhones out there and

1742
01:37:32,360 --> 01:37:36,320
Speaker 2: use will have a system on their phone which will

1743
01:37:36,439 --> 01:37:39,000
Speaker 2: allow them to take money from say Bank of America

1744
01:37:39,040 --> 01:37:41,280
Speaker 2: and send it to Schwab or something like this, just

1745
01:37:41,320 --> 01:37:45,559
Speaker 2: in a voice control. I mean this what Apple has

1746
01:37:45,600 --> 01:37:49,360
Speaker 2: taken a long time to get into this AI space.

1747
01:37:49,960 --> 01:37:52,680
Speaker 2: They there's a couple of reasons for it, but the

1748
01:37:52,720 --> 01:37:55,960
Speaker 2: bottom line is when they deliver this product through this

1749
01:37:56,120 --> 01:37:59,120
Speaker 2: mechanism called Siri, it's going to be a game changer

1750
01:37:59,320 --> 01:38:01,519
Speaker 2: and that alone be the third or fourth inning. Now

1751
01:38:01,520 --> 01:38:05,200
Speaker 2: we're just in the second, so it's you know, there's

1752
01:38:05,240 --> 01:38:09,320
Speaker 2: some plus spots to this economy, I really think, but

1753
01:38:09,720 --> 01:38:11,760
Speaker 2: there's also going to be some major changes. I think

1754
01:38:11,760 --> 01:38:14,800
Speaker 2: one of the reasons I enjoy the business is those

1755
01:38:14,920 --> 01:38:16,760
Speaker 2: changes both scare me and excite me.

1756
01:38:17,320 --> 01:38:20,639
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I mean, you know, yes, I mean look,

1757
01:38:21,160 --> 01:38:23,880
Speaker 1: I think fear of AI job displacement is going to

1758
01:38:23,880 --> 01:38:28,080
Speaker 1: be a driver of a lot of decision making, even

1759
01:38:28,120 --> 01:38:30,439
Speaker 1: if we don't have evidence of it right away.

1760
01:38:31,160 --> 01:38:34,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. And I think I think the

1761
01:38:35,360 --> 01:38:39,120
Speaker 2: politics will become increasingly more important because I think I

1762
01:38:39,160 --> 01:38:42,599
Speaker 2: think the politicians are going to have to understand that

1763
01:38:42,880 --> 01:38:45,960
Speaker 2: the populism side of what they're doing might get them

1764
01:38:45,960 --> 01:38:49,120
Speaker 2: some votes, but it could hurt them in other ways.

1765
01:38:49,560 --> 01:38:52,360
Speaker 2: And I think that's just something that's now being refined.

1766
01:38:52,400 --> 01:38:55,280
Speaker 2: I have a friend who's running for governor down here,

1767
01:38:55,320 --> 01:38:59,000
Speaker 2: and he's constantly navigating that mindfield. He was a Republican.

1768
01:38:59,520 --> 01:39:04,880
Speaker 2: He's now a Democrat because the Republicans. Yeah, yeah, because

1769
01:39:04,920 --> 01:39:08,120
Speaker 2: he didn't like Trump. And and it's it's it's interesting.

1770
01:39:08,160 --> 01:39:10,439
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at span Berger, right, she she

1771
01:39:10,920 --> 01:39:13,320
Speaker 2: you know, she she ran one way. She ran as

1772
01:39:13,320 --> 01:39:17,479
Speaker 2: a moderate, a centrist. I still think she is, for

1773
01:39:17,520 --> 01:39:18,880
Speaker 2: the most part right.

1774
01:39:18,920 --> 01:39:21,479
Speaker 1: But when you have one party control, all of a sudden,

1775
01:39:21,479 --> 01:39:24,880
Speaker 1: your legislature can define you. I mean, I'm pretty close

1776
01:39:24,920 --> 01:39:27,919
Speaker 1: with Pat McCrory, the former Republican governor of North Carolina,

1777
01:39:28,280 --> 01:39:30,960
Speaker 1: and you know he will tell you because his legislature was,

1778
01:39:31,200 --> 01:39:34,160
Speaker 1: you know, further to the right than than Donald Trump

1779
01:39:34,240 --> 01:39:37,640
Speaker 1: was at times, and they could override his vetos, so

1780
01:39:38,040 --> 01:39:41,280
Speaker 1: he ended up. You agree to some things out of

1781
01:39:41,320 --> 01:39:44,559
Speaker 1: party politics that can define you in a way that

1782
01:39:45,120 --> 01:39:48,000
Speaker 1: becomes impossible to get yourself out of. It's a warning.

1783
01:39:48,160 --> 01:39:50,840
Speaker 1: I worried about this for spam Burger, that she was

1784
01:39:50,920 --> 01:39:54,479
Speaker 1: going to have to immediately start as a partisan because

1785
01:39:54,479 --> 01:39:57,919
Speaker 1: of this redistricting mess, right, and that it could define

1786
01:39:57,960 --> 01:40:01,680
Speaker 1: her early days. And you know, know your first impressions,

1787
01:40:01,680 --> 01:40:03,519
Speaker 1: your first impression, and it.

1788
01:40:03,479 --> 01:40:06,080
Speaker 2: Has made a second one. Yeah, yeah, no, that's right,

1789
01:40:06,160 --> 01:40:08,479
Speaker 2: that's right. I mean, it's it's very interesting you mentioned

1790
01:40:08,479 --> 01:40:10,679
Speaker 2: North Carolina. I said to my wife the other day,

1791
01:40:10,880 --> 01:40:13,679
Speaker 2: I can't remember Tom tillis sounding so smart the last

1792
01:40:13,760 --> 01:40:16,960
Speaker 2: couple of interviews I've heard him do. It's like, my goodness,

1793
01:40:17,120 --> 01:40:18,080
Speaker 2: where's this guy chen?

1794
01:40:18,200 --> 01:40:20,800
Speaker 1: Well, now he's not going to worry about you know,

1795
01:40:20,920 --> 01:40:24,240
Speaker 1: Trump's endorsement. Like, I mean, it's quite you know, we

1796
01:40:24,280 --> 01:40:29,400
Speaker 1: always do politicians spun, but they're spinning and there's like

1797
01:40:29,760 --> 01:40:33,080
Speaker 1: total like capitulation. And I think what we're learning from

1798
01:40:33,120 --> 01:40:37,000
Speaker 1: these retiring Republicans who the minute they retire, they really

1799
01:40:37,000 --> 01:40:37,960
Speaker 1: tell you what's going on.

1800
01:40:38,439 --> 01:40:42,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, they get courage. Yeah, no, no, it's it's very understanding.

1801
01:40:42,640 --> 01:40:45,160
Speaker 2: But the Democrats don't have a clear run. You know,

1802
01:40:45,200 --> 01:40:47,519
Speaker 2: they have a unique ability to snatch the feet from

1803
01:40:47,520 --> 01:40:49,599
Speaker 2: the jobs of victory. And I'm afraid that you can

1804
01:40:49,640 --> 01:40:51,519
Speaker 2: see that a little bit now. I see that. You know,

1805
01:40:51,520 --> 01:40:55,440
Speaker 2: I'm a big fan of these young politicians Momdami and

1806
01:40:55,120 --> 01:40:58,160
Speaker 2: and AOC. I don't think they can run the country.

1807
01:40:58,320 --> 01:41:01,040
Speaker 2: I think that showed just with AOC interviews in Munich.

1808
01:41:01,240 --> 01:41:03,960
Speaker 2: But the fact of the matter is they're refreshing. If

1809
01:41:04,000 --> 01:41:06,280
Speaker 2: you organize a lot of kids to come to the

1810
01:41:06,360 --> 01:41:09,000
Speaker 2: voters in a big city, I think that works. I'm

1811
01:41:09,000 --> 01:41:12,560
Speaker 2: not sure that works in a national election, so it'll

1812
01:41:12,600 --> 01:41:14,880
Speaker 2: be interesting. But I watch it more and more now,

1813
01:41:14,960 --> 01:41:18,640
Speaker 2: particularly on the centrist side, because I could make a

1814
01:41:18,640 --> 01:41:21,000
Speaker 2: pretty strong case the centrist policies are going to be

1815
01:41:21,000 --> 01:41:23,519
Speaker 2: better financially than these draconi in one way or the other.

1816
01:41:24,040 --> 01:41:27,439
Speaker 1: Well, I want to rebrand centrism because you know, I

1817
01:41:27,479 --> 01:41:29,320
Speaker 1: get it. I always joke. I get accused of being

1818
01:41:29,320 --> 01:41:31,360
Speaker 1: a centrist, and what I always say is nope, I'm

1819
01:41:31,400 --> 01:41:36,000
Speaker 1: an incrementalist. There are good left wing ideas and good

1820
01:41:36,040 --> 01:41:39,879
Speaker 1: right wing ideas. I like that, and you gotta start

1821
01:41:40,120 --> 01:41:42,439
Speaker 1: a tiny The only way to bring the country along

1822
01:41:42,479 --> 01:41:45,160
Speaker 1: on anything is you got to go a small step.

1823
01:41:45,200 --> 01:41:48,320
Speaker 1: When you make a big leap, that's when the boomerang comes.

1824
01:41:48,439 --> 01:41:51,000
Speaker 1: It always does. You can snap back and sometimes go

1825
01:41:51,120 --> 01:41:53,559
Speaker 1: backwards because you took too big of a leap, and

1826
01:41:53,640 --> 01:41:57,040
Speaker 1: the SmackDown is coming. You know, we never like I

1827
01:41:57,080 --> 01:42:01,160
Speaker 1: mean that, you know, we don't like to my change.

1828
01:42:01,400 --> 01:42:05,559
Speaker 1: It's so funny the thing that the big conundrum, and

1829
01:42:05,640 --> 01:42:08,639
Speaker 1: you see it because when people's own pot money, he's

1830
01:42:08,680 --> 01:42:12,240
Speaker 1: on the line, they stop being disruptors and change agents, right,

1831
01:42:12,840 --> 01:42:16,759
Speaker 1: And we're that way as an electorate. We want change

1832
01:42:16,800 --> 01:42:19,000
Speaker 1: and the minute somebody implements it, we hate it.

1833
01:42:20,200 --> 01:42:22,360
Speaker 2: You're seeing that in the immigration issues right now in

1834
01:42:22,400 --> 01:42:24,240
Speaker 2: the polling. That's right, that's right, that's right.

1835
01:42:25,880 --> 01:42:29,479
Speaker 1: Well, Bob, let me ask you this. You sound like

1836
01:42:29,520 --> 01:42:32,679
Speaker 1: you're still bullish on basic old investing in the stock market.

1837
01:42:32,760 --> 01:42:36,240
Speaker 1: You would still tell somebody today whatever you can sock away,

1838
01:42:36,400 --> 01:42:39,880
Speaker 1: still do it, because you're going to you know, if

1839
01:42:39,880 --> 01:42:42,720
Speaker 1: you just sit there, don't look at it, and you know,

1840
01:42:42,840 --> 01:42:45,000
Speaker 1: just shoot, you just bought the S and P five

1841
01:42:45,080 --> 01:42:48,000
Speaker 1: hundred sort of one of those funds. You're going to

1842
01:42:48,080 --> 01:42:50,160
Speaker 1: make ten percent on average over.

1843
01:42:50,920 --> 01:42:52,840
Speaker 2: That's good for the thirty year old and maybe even

1844
01:42:52,880 --> 01:42:54,839
Speaker 2: the thirty five or forty year old. But I wouldn't

1845
01:42:54,840 --> 01:42:56,920
Speaker 2: have that for the sixty year old and beyond right,

1846
01:42:56,960 --> 01:42:59,800
Speaker 2: i'd be and it could be a little lower in age.

1847
01:43:00,320 --> 01:43:02,800
Speaker 2: It really depends on risk tolerance. That's a that's a

1848
01:43:02,800 --> 01:43:05,320
Speaker 2: discussion that really needs to be had with clients. Now,

1849
01:43:05,880 --> 01:43:08,240
Speaker 2: be prepared for a thirty percent drop. I don't know

1850
01:43:08,280 --> 01:43:09,840
Speaker 2: if it's going to happen. I don't know when it's

1851
01:43:09,880 --> 01:43:12,320
Speaker 2: going to happen, But can you afford that? So the

1852
01:43:12,400 --> 01:43:14,720
Speaker 2: answer to that if they say no, is then look,

1853
01:43:14,800 --> 01:43:17,720
Speaker 2: you don't belong in a ninety percent equities portfolio. You

1854
01:43:17,800 --> 01:43:20,559
Speaker 2: belong in a fifty to fifty or sixty forty and

1855
01:43:20,640 --> 01:43:22,439
Speaker 2: you need enough cash to go through a couple of

1856
01:43:22,520 --> 01:43:24,840
Speaker 2: years of retirement, So keep it in the bank. I

1857
01:43:24,840 --> 01:43:27,120
Speaker 2: think that allocation side and one of the reasons we

1858
01:43:27,120 --> 01:43:29,760
Speaker 2: don't worry about AI kicking us out of business, just

1859
01:43:30,120 --> 01:43:33,200
Speaker 2: trying to increase our productivity is that's a discussion you

1860
01:43:33,280 --> 01:43:35,400
Speaker 2: really have to have with a client. You can't you

1861
01:43:35,479 --> 01:43:39,800
Speaker 2: can't put that on chat GBT. That's really a field discussion.

1862
01:43:40,280 --> 01:43:42,599
Speaker 1: Well, I mean it's like just like healthcare. I mean,

1863
01:43:43,200 --> 01:43:45,200
Speaker 1: you may get a you may you may have more

1864
01:43:45,920 --> 01:43:52,080
Speaker 1: data about about the healthcare space thanks to chat GBT,

1865
01:43:52,200 --> 01:43:55,320
Speaker 1: but you still want doctor, a curator you trust to

1866
01:43:55,439 --> 01:43:58,320
Speaker 1: explain why chat gipt came up with that, come.

1867
01:43:58,240 --> 01:44:00,200
Speaker 2: Back to go back and forth. You know, I have

1868
01:44:00,439 --> 01:44:02,479
Speaker 2: a bunch of friends that are doctors in my area.

1869
01:44:02,479 --> 01:44:04,320
Speaker 2: And one of the things I don't know if you

1870
01:44:04,360 --> 01:44:07,120
Speaker 2: remember this or even if you were in in the

1871
01:44:07,200 --> 01:44:08,920
Speaker 2: area you live at the time, but there was a

1872
01:44:08,960 --> 01:44:10,719
Speaker 2: men's clothing store called Sims.

1873
01:44:11,120 --> 01:44:11,719
Speaker 1: Oh yeah.

1874
01:44:11,760 --> 01:44:15,360
Speaker 2: The educated consumer is our best customer. And I think

1875
01:44:15,439 --> 01:44:17,840
Speaker 2: that applies a friend of mine as a cardiologist, he

1876
01:44:17,880 --> 01:44:20,040
Speaker 2: said to me that the best thing is when a

1877
01:44:20,080 --> 01:44:22,120
Speaker 2: client comes in and has done some research on the

1878
01:44:22,200 --> 01:44:24,360
Speaker 2: drugs and the different procedures that I want to talk

1879
01:44:24,400 --> 01:44:26,320
Speaker 2: to them about, you know, as long as they're not

1880
01:44:26,320 --> 01:44:28,439
Speaker 2: trying to play doctor and tell me they don't like

1881
01:44:28,520 --> 01:44:30,840
Speaker 2: this because I like it better. The fact is they

1882
01:44:30,880 --> 01:44:35,000
Speaker 2: have a better relationship, a better patient relationship. We have it,

1883
01:44:35,040 --> 01:44:36,560
Speaker 2: by the way, with our clients.

1884
01:44:36,320 --> 01:44:38,519
Speaker 1: When they're in. You don't mind when a client comes

1885
01:44:38,560 --> 01:44:41,559
Speaker 1: in and says, hey, you know, I was talking with

1886
01:44:41,600 --> 01:44:43,720
Speaker 1: my son's advisor and he says this, this and this.

1887
01:44:45,520 --> 01:44:48,479
Speaker 2: You know, for years and we were early to this game, right,

1888
01:44:48,600 --> 01:44:50,960
Speaker 2: is the idea that an index fund as opposed to

1889
01:44:50,960 --> 01:44:55,080
Speaker 2: an actively managed portfolio is a better, better approach to take.

1890
01:44:55,400 --> 01:44:58,160
Speaker 2: And you know, before chat GBT or any of that,

1891
01:44:58,200 --> 01:45:01,040
Speaker 2: people were reading that Jason's why to the Wall Street Journals.

1892
01:45:01,040 --> 01:45:02,960
Speaker 2: An old friend of mine wrote a lot of those

1893
01:45:03,000 --> 01:45:06,000
Speaker 2: columns about that type of thing, and it was a

1894
01:45:06,000 --> 01:45:09,559
Speaker 2: better discussion because the client was informed. Now you had

1895
01:45:09,560 --> 01:45:12,080
Speaker 2: clients that were just stuck on a certain area and

1896
01:45:12,120 --> 01:45:14,680
Speaker 2: you couldn't change their mind. But I'd rather have that

1897
01:45:14,760 --> 01:45:16,599
Speaker 2: than someone that wasn't knowledgeable at all.

1898
01:45:17,200 --> 01:45:18,439
Speaker 1: I'm going to get you out of here on this.

1899
01:45:18,880 --> 01:45:21,200
Speaker 1: When it comes to what you do for a living,

1900
01:45:21,280 --> 01:45:24,280
Speaker 1: not your own personal concerns or politics, but what you

1901
01:45:24,400 --> 01:45:28,200
Speaker 1: do for a living. What's one question you want every

1902
01:45:28,200 --> 01:45:31,280
Speaker 1: presidential candidate to answer to it so that you understand

1903
01:45:31,280 --> 01:45:34,679
Speaker 1: whether they understand our economy and markets.

1904
01:45:35,840 --> 01:45:38,320
Speaker 2: I think it's been very obvious over the last couple

1905
01:45:38,320 --> 01:45:40,320
Speaker 2: of months, and it continues to be as the Federal

1906
01:45:40,360 --> 01:45:44,400
Speaker 2: Reserve an independent organization. I think we're the envy of

1907
01:45:44,439 --> 01:45:47,360
Speaker 2: the markets around the world for two reasons, our rule

1908
01:45:47,400 --> 01:45:50,000
Speaker 2: of law and the independence of our FED. That's why

1909
01:45:50,040 --> 01:45:51,960
Speaker 2: the dollar has been so strong, That's why it's the

1910
01:45:52,040 --> 01:45:55,320
Speaker 2: world safe haven, the currency of choice. I think that's

1911
01:45:55,360 --> 01:45:58,200
Speaker 2: an area that I think is as important as anything,

1912
01:45:58,200 --> 01:45:59,800
Speaker 2: and we're seeing it play out in real time.

1913
01:46:00,200 --> 01:46:02,599
Speaker 1: Well, you know, that might be one of the few

1914
01:46:02,960 --> 01:46:06,480
Speaker 1: issues that becomes a regularly asked question of these candidates.

1915
01:46:06,680 --> 01:46:08,439
Speaker 1: Do you believe in You know that the FED should

1916
01:46:08,439 --> 01:46:08,960
Speaker 1: be independent.

1917
01:46:09,600 --> 01:46:11,559
Speaker 2: And then the problem, of course is when they're asked

1918
01:46:11,560 --> 01:46:14,160
Speaker 2: those questions, they say one thing and do something else, right,

1919
01:46:14,240 --> 01:46:17,400
Speaker 2: So you know that that's an issue. But yeah, no,

1920
01:46:17,560 --> 01:46:19,919
Speaker 2: I agree with you. I think I think it's important.

1921
01:46:20,680 --> 01:46:22,679
Speaker 2: I would also if I went into the political side

1922
01:46:22,680 --> 01:46:25,559
Speaker 2: a little bit. I worry about the Supreme Court, but

1923
01:46:25,600 --> 01:46:28,519
Speaker 2: I really think that FED independence is a big issue.

1924
01:46:28,520 --> 01:46:30,679
Speaker 2: You know. The bond market is something that I watch

1925
01:46:30,760 --> 01:46:33,280
Speaker 2: even more closely in the stock market. I'll leave you

1926
01:46:33,320 --> 01:46:36,160
Speaker 2: with a James Carvill quote which I always love. You

1927
01:46:36,280 --> 01:46:39,600
Speaker 2: probably heard it. He said once, if I believed in reincarnation,

1928
01:46:39,680 --> 01:46:41,439
Speaker 2: I don't want to come back as president or the

1929
01:46:41,479 --> 01:46:43,840
Speaker 2: Pope or even a full hundred baseball hitter. I'd rather

1930
01:46:43,880 --> 01:46:45,720
Speaker 2: come back as The bond market scare the hell out

1931
01:46:45,760 --> 01:46:48,320
Speaker 2: of everybody, and I think if you're in the financial business,

1932
01:46:48,560 --> 01:46:51,400
Speaker 2: you understand what that means. The bond market is the

1933
01:46:51,439 --> 01:46:54,759
Speaker 2: liquidity for all businesses, both in the United States and abroad,

1934
01:46:55,120 --> 01:46:59,080
Speaker 2: and when the bond market starts to seize up, that's problems,

1935
01:46:58,760 --> 01:47:01,920
Speaker 2: and that will happen if there's issues with the Federal Reserve.

1936
01:47:02,080 --> 01:47:04,679
Speaker 2: So I'm keeping my fingers crossed that that isn't a

1937
01:47:04,760 --> 01:47:06,040
Speaker 2: rubicount we need to cross.

1938
01:47:06,439 --> 01:47:10,599
Speaker 1: Well, Paul, that's a great conversation. Appreciate the time, the wisdom,

1939
01:47:10,640 --> 01:47:12,360
Speaker 1: the you know, it's good to get to know you.

1940
01:47:12,400 --> 01:47:14,040
Speaker 2: I hope to get the chance to do this again.

1941
01:47:14,080 --> 01:47:14,679
Speaker 1: So sounds good.

1942
01:47:14,720 --> 01:47:25,120
Speaker 2: This has been a pleasure, all right.

1943
01:47:25,280 --> 01:47:28,680
Speaker 1: Again, I don't say this because I don't trust mister Oslander,

1944
01:47:28,720 --> 01:47:31,280
Speaker 1: but I'm not here. This is not he is He

1945
01:47:31,320 --> 01:47:35,760
Speaker 1: and I do not have any financial relationship whatsoever at all.

1946
01:47:36,000 --> 01:47:40,000
Speaker 1: That is just a you probably if you're close watchers

1947
01:47:40,000 --> 01:47:42,599
Speaker 1: of the financial networks. I've seen him on my guess

1948
01:47:42,640 --> 01:47:47,920
Speaker 1: it's seen him on CNBC or elsewhere. But I thought

1949
01:47:47,920 --> 01:47:50,680
Speaker 1: he provided some important insight and I thought it was

1950
01:47:51,160 --> 01:47:56,120
Speaker 1: a good conversation. All right, it's Top five time and

1951
01:47:56,160 --> 01:47:58,519
Speaker 1: I'm gonna preview. I've got a I've got a fun

1952
01:47:58,560 --> 01:48:02,639
Speaker 1: little as you know, I'm kind of a history buff,

1953
01:48:02,720 --> 01:48:06,840
Speaker 1: but I'm also a campaign buff. And I've been sitting

1954
01:48:06,880 --> 01:48:08,840
Speaker 1: on some material for a while that I've been trying

1955
01:48:08,880 --> 01:48:11,559
Speaker 1: to figure out. Is it a book, is it a series?

1956
01:48:12,200 --> 01:48:14,200
Speaker 1: You know what it is? It is something I should

1957
01:48:14,200 --> 01:48:17,120
Speaker 1: be sharing with you. So in a couple of weeks,

1958
01:48:17,120 --> 01:48:20,719
Speaker 1: we're gonna we're gonna have a fun little year, year

1959
01:48:20,760 --> 01:48:25,360
Speaker 1: long countdown of some of the greatest campaign stories that

1960
01:48:26,720 --> 01:48:30,599
Speaker 1: need to be told. And it'll be about state wide races,

1961
01:48:30,600 --> 01:48:33,680
Speaker 1: not presidential races, state wide races. But I think you

1962
01:48:33,680 --> 01:48:36,320
Speaker 1: will enjoy it. But in the meantime, it is a

1963
01:48:36,320 --> 01:48:37,559
Speaker 1: top five list to.

1964
01:48:39,560 --> 01:48:41,400
Speaker 2: Top five, top fun.

1965
01:48:44,640 --> 01:48:47,439
Speaker 1: Just to remind you the last my last top five

1966
01:48:47,479 --> 01:48:48,800
Speaker 1: in the Senate and the way I do it is

1967
01:48:49,080 --> 01:48:53,080
Speaker 1: most likely to change parties. So number one on the

1968
01:48:53,120 --> 01:48:55,240
Speaker 1: list last month and number one on the list this

1969
01:48:55,280 --> 01:48:58,000
Speaker 1: month will be the same. It is North Carolina. Nothing

1970
01:48:58,040 --> 01:49:00,840
Speaker 1: has changed in North Carolina. Other then it appears that

1971
01:49:00,880 --> 01:49:04,840
Speaker 1: Cooper is getting a larger financial lead. I think it

1972
01:49:04,920 --> 01:49:08,400
Speaker 1: is it is you can see that it matters when

1973
01:49:08,439 --> 01:49:10,680
Speaker 1: you can avoid a primary. He's not having to deal

1974
01:49:10,720 --> 01:49:13,360
Speaker 1: with any of the inter party you know fights that

1975
01:49:13,400 --> 01:49:19,000
Speaker 1: are taking place these days. It is it is the

1976
01:49:19,080 --> 01:49:24,240
Speaker 1: Democrat's seat to lose, and it would be a monumental. Look,

1977
01:49:24,280 --> 01:49:26,000
Speaker 1: Michael Watley, I think is going to raise a ton

1978
01:49:26,040 --> 01:49:33,160
Speaker 1: of money. It is a swing state. So but and

1979
01:49:33,280 --> 01:49:36,160
Speaker 1: maybe he can make it a referendum on Cooper, but

1980
01:49:36,280 --> 01:49:39,280
Speaker 1: he's not the sitting governor. Right, it has been two years.

1981
01:49:39,640 --> 01:49:42,160
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be harder. And I think

1982
01:49:42,160 --> 01:49:46,360
Speaker 1: Cooper's scubernatorial terms are seen fairly positively. I don't think

1983
01:49:46,400 --> 01:49:49,160
Speaker 1: there's a negative to it. He never lost reelection that

1984
01:49:49,200 --> 01:49:52,720
Speaker 1: matters as far as voters are concerned, so I think

1985
01:49:52,760 --> 01:49:55,960
Speaker 1: they're going to I think that this is if anything,

1986
01:49:56,000 --> 01:49:59,600
Speaker 1: I think this is, you know, I'd still keep it

1987
01:49:59,640 --> 01:50:01,880
Speaker 1: in top, but it's pretty close to being more lean

1988
01:50:01,920 --> 01:50:03,760
Speaker 1: Democrat than it is toss up if you were playing

1989
01:50:03,800 --> 01:50:08,559
Speaker 1: the rating word game there, right, lean versus I am

1990
01:50:09,320 --> 01:50:14,759
Speaker 1: only because Democrats haven't carried, have struggled in federal races

1991
01:50:14,760 --> 01:50:16,559
Speaker 1: in North Carolina, and I haven't won one since two

1992
01:50:16,560 --> 01:50:19,280
Speaker 1: thousand and eight. It's the only reason I'd be a

1993
01:50:19,439 --> 01:50:23,080
Speaker 1: little hesitant. I like my old friend Nathan Gonzales over

1994
01:50:23,080 --> 01:50:29,200
Speaker 1: at at the inside Elections. I think he uses toss

1995
01:50:29,280 --> 01:50:34,519
Speaker 1: up tilt Democrat or toss up tilt Republican. I would

1996
01:50:34,560 --> 01:50:37,280
Speaker 1: probably be slightly more comfortable with toss up tilt Democrat

1997
01:50:37,320 --> 01:50:39,400
Speaker 1: than I would be lean Democrat. But we're getting pretty

1998
01:50:39,439 --> 01:50:44,200
Speaker 1: close to lean Democrat there. Number two on the list

1999
01:50:44,479 --> 01:50:46,960
Speaker 1: is I think still main and I think it's because

2000
01:50:47,000 --> 01:50:54,679
Speaker 1: of Susan Collins is now getting into the Mitch McConnell territory,

2001
01:50:54,680 --> 01:50:56,920
Speaker 1: where you have the basis of both parties being unhappy

2002
01:50:56,960 --> 01:51:00,240
Speaker 1: with you, and I think that's a tough place to be.

2003
01:51:01,120 --> 01:51:03,880
Speaker 1: This is the worst poll numbers she's ever had facing

2004
01:51:03,960 --> 01:51:07,760
Speaker 1: a reelection, but look, she's running. The fact that she's

2005
01:51:07,840 --> 01:51:10,000
Speaker 1: in is a relief. I think there was a little

2006
01:51:10,000 --> 01:51:14,000
Speaker 1: bit of nervousness among Senate Republicans that she might that

2007
01:51:14,080 --> 01:51:19,120
Speaker 1: she might call it a career. But I think she's

2008
01:51:19,120 --> 01:51:21,759
Speaker 1: been convinced that if Graham Platner comes out of the primary,

2009
01:51:21,760 --> 01:51:25,599
Speaker 1: that she can somehow beat Platner. I think she fears

2010
01:51:26,120 --> 01:51:31,280
Speaker 1: Mills more than Platiner. Boy, you know I am. I'm

2011
01:51:31,439 --> 01:51:34,280
Speaker 1: kind of agnostic on this. I know Platner has this

2012
01:51:34,479 --> 01:51:39,000
Speaker 1: personal baggage and there's some authenticity issues that may come,

2013
01:51:39,120 --> 01:51:43,639
Speaker 1: whether it's this tattoo story in various ways. But he

2014
01:51:43,720 --> 01:51:47,200
Speaker 1: may fit the time right, he may fit the moment.

2015
01:51:48,600 --> 01:51:52,640
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you this, I thought the Governor Mills

2016
01:51:52,680 --> 01:51:55,920
Speaker 1: campaign put out an opening ad on Collins that was

2017
01:51:56,800 --> 01:52:01,040
Speaker 1: sort of mocking her regular use of the word concerned

2018
01:52:01,040 --> 01:52:04,519
Speaker 1: when it comes to Donald Trump decisions if you will,

2019
01:52:06,160 --> 01:52:09,439
Speaker 1: and it was always concerned, never courageous. Was an interesting

2020
01:52:09,479 --> 01:52:11,400
Speaker 1: I think that was the punchline. I thought it was

2021
01:52:11,600 --> 01:52:15,840
Speaker 1: really well done. And the other thing it did is

2022
01:52:15,960 --> 01:52:18,360
Speaker 1: it highlighted how long she'd been in Washington because she

2023
01:52:18,479 --> 01:52:20,720
Speaker 1: saw Susan Collins going all the way back to the

2024
01:52:20,760 --> 01:52:24,559
Speaker 1: mid nineties all the way through, So it it is.

2025
01:52:25,880 --> 01:52:28,599
Speaker 1: I mean, I think she's technically younger than Janet Mills,

2026
01:52:28,600 --> 01:52:31,000
Speaker 1: so I think that it's not the age issue, but

2027
01:52:31,040 --> 01:52:33,760
Speaker 1: it's how long have you been in Washington? I think

2028
01:52:33,920 --> 01:52:36,040
Speaker 1: is going to be more of a problem than how

2029
01:52:36,080 --> 01:52:42,120
Speaker 1: old you are. I think, but obviously, look that's a

2030
01:52:42,120 --> 01:52:46,280
Speaker 1: but her being in Washington too long, I don't care

2031
01:52:46,320 --> 01:52:48,680
Speaker 1: what party you're in. I think that's going to be

2032
01:52:48,760 --> 01:52:50,840
Speaker 1: more of a net negative than a net positive. I mean,

2033
01:52:51,080 --> 01:52:54,320
Speaker 1: I saw some internal polling that I got off the

2034
01:52:54,360 --> 01:52:57,519
Speaker 1: record about one incumbent and this is somebody who's fairly

2035
01:52:57,560 --> 01:53:01,519
Speaker 1: popular and is it time for someone new? Was ahead

2036
01:53:01,600 --> 01:53:04,599
Speaker 1: of re electing incumbent by a good dumb by fifteen points.

2037
01:53:04,640 --> 01:53:06,760
Speaker 1: And this is an incumbent who's fairly heavily favored at

2038
01:53:06,760 --> 01:53:10,479
Speaker 1: the moment. The natural inclination of this electorate is for

2039
01:53:10,560 --> 01:53:14,479
Speaker 1: new people. Whether you're in a small rural state or

2040
01:53:14,520 --> 01:53:17,840
Speaker 1: a big city, it is. It is nobody thinks the

2041
01:53:17,960 --> 01:53:21,360
Speaker 1: current leadership class deserves reelection, whatever that means to them.

2042
01:53:22,080 --> 01:53:25,160
Speaker 1: And so even though your own congressmen or woman is

2043
01:53:25,160 --> 01:53:28,519
Speaker 1: somebody that you may end up supporting, the general sentiment

2044
01:53:28,680 --> 01:53:31,439
Speaker 1: is they're looking right, the change candidate is going to

2045
01:53:31,479 --> 01:53:33,799
Speaker 1: get the second look. You may end up with the acumbent,

2046
01:53:33,880 --> 01:53:35,320
Speaker 1: but you're you're going to take a look at the

2047
01:53:35,360 --> 01:53:38,080
Speaker 1: change candidate. So I do think it's that type of atmosphere.

2048
01:53:38,160 --> 01:53:41,759
Speaker 1: So I'm going to keep Maine in the second slot,

2049
01:53:43,760 --> 01:53:45,679
Speaker 1: and I think you still have to in the third slot.

2050
01:53:45,760 --> 01:53:49,880
Speaker 1: Is still Michigan, Donald Trump, it was third last one.

2051
01:53:49,880 --> 01:53:52,759
Speaker 1: I don't worry. I'm shaking things up here in a second,

2052
01:53:52,760 --> 01:53:56,000
Speaker 1: but Michigan is still in the third slot. This is

2053
01:53:56,280 --> 01:53:59,439
Speaker 1: a Democratic seat that they have to hold. They can't

2054
01:53:59,439 --> 01:54:03,320
Speaker 1: afford to lose. Democrats need four to a net gain

2055
01:54:03,360 --> 01:54:07,599
Speaker 1: of four, now is it three? And they maybe can

2056
01:54:07,640 --> 01:54:10,320
Speaker 1: get somebody who's coxing with the Republicans to flip to

2057
01:54:10,360 --> 01:54:13,120
Speaker 1: the Democrats. That's a possibility. I'll get to that in

2058
01:54:13,200 --> 01:54:17,599
Speaker 1: a minute. But they need four and they can't afford

2059
01:54:17,680 --> 01:54:20,840
Speaker 1: to lose any and the two vulnerable. I would argue

2060
01:54:20,880 --> 01:54:25,880
Speaker 1: that there are four competitive Democratic held seats, only one

2061
01:54:25,960 --> 01:54:28,120
Speaker 1: is making my top five right now because I think

2062
01:54:28,280 --> 01:54:32,080
Speaker 1: generally the atmosphere is better for Democrats than Republicans. But

2063
01:54:32,160 --> 01:54:36,560
Speaker 1: the four Democratic held seats that are have some level

2064
01:54:36,560 --> 01:54:42,000
Speaker 1: of vulnerability to them are Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

2065
01:54:43,080 --> 01:54:47,200
Speaker 1: Now three of the four are retirees, right it's an

2066
01:54:47,240 --> 01:54:50,520
Speaker 1: open seat of Michigan, open seat of Minnesota, open seat

2067
01:54:50,640 --> 01:54:55,320
Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, the fourth is Osoff and Georgia. Look

2068
01:54:55,360 --> 01:54:58,400
Speaker 1: asof when when I started doing these top five lists

2069
01:54:58,400 --> 01:55:00,240
Speaker 1: a few months ago, he was on this list. He's

2070
01:55:00,280 --> 01:55:04,240
Speaker 1: no longer on it. I think you've seen they haven't

2071
01:55:04,240 --> 01:55:07,200
Speaker 1: been able that there's no superstar candidate among the Republicans,

2072
01:55:07,560 --> 01:55:11,960
Speaker 1: and he is just a monster fundraiser, and frankly is

2073
01:55:12,000 --> 01:55:17,720
Speaker 1: just a really underrated campaigner. I think I've underestimated him.

2074
01:55:17,080 --> 01:55:20,760
Speaker 1: I have thought that he's benefited from sharing a ballot

2075
01:55:20,760 --> 01:55:23,920
Speaker 1: with Warnock. So look, he's on there this time without him,

2076
01:55:24,760 --> 01:55:28,080
Speaker 1: But so far I think he's you know, he's he

2077
01:55:28,160 --> 01:55:30,240
Speaker 1: looks a lot stronger now than I think, a lot

2078
01:55:30,240 --> 01:55:33,800
Speaker 1: of a lot of Democrats or Republican strategists expected at

2079
01:55:33,800 --> 01:55:36,960
Speaker 1: this point in the cycle. But Michigan, of all of

2080
01:55:37,000 --> 01:55:39,720
Speaker 1: the four open seats, the one that I think is

2081
01:55:39,720 --> 01:55:42,040
Speaker 1: the most vulnerable at the moment is Michigan because of

2082
01:55:42,080 --> 01:55:47,480
Speaker 1: the very potentially divisive Democratic primary. To a lesser extent,

2083
01:55:47,600 --> 01:55:50,960
Speaker 1: that's a phenomenon. Also in Minnesota, you have sort of

2084
01:55:51,000 --> 01:55:55,120
Speaker 1: a a less high profile version of what you're seeing

2085
01:55:55,120 --> 01:55:57,840
Speaker 1: in Minnesota than what you're seeing in Michigan, where you

2086
01:55:57,920 --> 01:56:00,320
Speaker 1: sort of have this you have sort of an the

2087
01:56:00,360 --> 01:56:03,400
Speaker 1: insider candidate, and Haley Stevens the sort of the Michigan

2088
01:56:03,440 --> 01:56:06,600
Speaker 1: outsider candidate, Molly McMorrow, and then the progressive outsider and

2089
01:56:06,680 --> 01:56:10,560
Speaker 1: I'll do ELSI. Yet that is still I think that

2090
01:56:11,200 --> 01:56:16,200
Speaker 1: potential where the Democratic nominee is a divisive figure inside

2091
01:56:16,200 --> 01:56:19,960
Speaker 1: his own her party is what any have. Mike Rogers

2092
01:56:20,000 --> 01:56:23,120
Speaker 1: on the other side, who's I think the least mag

2093
01:56:23,160 --> 01:56:25,919
Speaker 1: of a Republican that they could get Trump to support,

2094
01:56:27,640 --> 01:56:30,640
Speaker 1: is potentially a fairly strong nominee. Now, Trump has really

2095
01:56:30,680 --> 01:56:34,840
Speaker 1: screwed up things for Michigan Republicans like he's trying to

2096
01:56:36,200 --> 01:56:39,800
Speaker 1: I mean, the antagonism toward Canada doesn't play well in Michigan.

2097
01:56:40,760 --> 01:56:43,000
Speaker 1: He's messed with this new bridge that was meant to

2098
01:56:43,040 --> 01:56:47,560
Speaker 1: alleviate congestion on the one Bridge to Windsor. But because

2099
01:56:47,720 --> 01:56:50,440
Speaker 1: the gentleman who sort of controls the fees off of

2100
01:56:50,400 --> 01:56:53,080
Speaker 1: the one Windsor Bridge is going to see some of

2101
01:56:53,120 --> 01:56:55,800
Speaker 1: his income hit because of the opening of this new bridge,

2102
01:56:55,800 --> 01:56:58,680
Speaker 1: which was jointly paid for by Canada and Michigan. The

2103
01:56:58,800 --> 01:57:03,760
Speaker 1: US government essentially a donation to Donald Trump. Within twenty

2104
01:57:03,760 --> 01:57:07,080
Speaker 1: four hours got Donald Trump to rail against this new bridge.

2105
01:57:07,920 --> 01:57:09,680
Speaker 1: None of that is good for Mike Rogers. None of

2106
01:57:09,680 --> 01:57:11,920
Speaker 1: that is good in the business community of Michigan doesn't

2107
01:57:11,960 --> 01:57:16,240
Speaker 1: like it. It's a really awkward situation that the president

2108
01:57:16,240 --> 01:57:18,920
Speaker 1: has set up for Rogers. Now Rogers has to he can't.

2109
01:57:19,000 --> 01:57:23,240
Speaker 1: He can't afford to be in Trump's wrong side. He decided, well,

2110
01:57:23,400 --> 01:57:26,760
Speaker 1: he thinks he can't afford. You know, at some point

2111
01:57:26,800 --> 01:57:28,040
Speaker 1: he's going to have to break from him, but he's

2112
01:57:28,080 --> 01:57:31,960
Speaker 1: going to wait till after after to make sure there's

2113
01:57:32,000 --> 01:57:37,080
Speaker 1: no last minute primary challenger that shows up, right. But

2114
01:57:37,240 --> 01:57:40,800
Speaker 1: I do think that that Trump's complicated. The entire tariff

2115
01:57:40,920 --> 01:57:45,200
Speaker 1: regime is complicated life. I think for every Midwestern Senator

2116
01:57:46,120 --> 01:57:48,800
Speaker 1: in general, particularly in the farm states. But I think

2117
01:57:48,800 --> 01:57:53,480
Speaker 1: it's also done may hurt Rogers in the long run

2118
01:57:53,560 --> 01:57:55,400
Speaker 1: and may give whoever the Democratic now means. But for

2119
01:57:55,480 --> 01:57:57,440
Speaker 1: now I have to put this race. You know this

2120
01:57:57,560 --> 01:57:59,560
Speaker 1: what I have to have five Republican seats in here

2121
01:58:00,240 --> 01:58:03,600
Speaker 1: if it wasn't for the potential divisiveness of this Democratic primary.

2122
01:58:04,000 --> 01:58:06,720
Speaker 1: So number four on the list right now is Alaska.

2123
01:58:07,960 --> 01:58:11,600
Speaker 1: Last month I had Ohio there and I'm dropping. I

2124
01:58:11,600 --> 01:58:14,520
Speaker 1: think Alaska. You saw that Chuck Schumer has spent a

2125
01:58:14,560 --> 01:58:18,480
Speaker 1: ton of money to help Mary Patello sort of put

2126
01:58:18,480 --> 01:58:20,960
Speaker 1: together a field program, sort of to try to rival

2127
01:58:20,960 --> 01:58:24,000
Speaker 1: the Lisa Markowski field program, which is second to none

2128
01:58:24,040 --> 01:58:29,560
Speaker 1: in Alaska politics. Look, I think Dan Sullivan is is

2129
01:58:29,600 --> 01:58:34,800
Speaker 1: a tough person to turn into a Trumpian figure. But

2130
01:58:35,000 --> 01:58:38,720
Speaker 1: I do think that, you know, Mary Patello was certainly

2131
01:58:39,040 --> 01:58:41,680
Speaker 1: as one one state wide election as the an at

2132
01:58:41,760 --> 01:58:45,480
Speaker 1: large house member, and certainly has a pretty good as

2133
01:58:45,520 --> 01:58:50,760
Speaker 1: a pretty good profile in the state. But I think

2134
01:58:50,800 --> 01:58:54,720
Speaker 1: this is, you know, pretty tough. But here's the wild card,

2135
01:58:54,760 --> 01:59:00,360
Speaker 1: and it's Lisa Rakowski. I'm very curious how what she

2136
01:59:00,440 --> 01:59:03,480
Speaker 1: does in this race. Remember she endorsed Mary Patello when

2137
01:59:03,520 --> 01:59:06,760
Speaker 1: she ran for the House. I think she has a

2138
01:59:06,760 --> 01:59:09,880
Speaker 1: good relationship with the Sullivan all everything. I understand. I've

2139
01:59:09,880 --> 01:59:13,440
Speaker 1: got some family and Anchorage, so that's sort of pretty

2140
01:59:13,440 --> 01:59:17,680
Speaker 1: plugged into Alaska politics. And you know, there's I don't

2141
01:59:17,680 --> 01:59:21,400
Speaker 1: think Murkowski and Sullivan, I don't think the two of them.

2142
01:59:21,600 --> 01:59:23,720
Speaker 1: I think they get along pretty well. I think they

2143
01:59:23,720 --> 01:59:27,000
Speaker 1: see think for the you know, I think they both

2144
01:59:27,200 --> 01:59:32,680
Speaker 1: sort of see themselves as Alaskans before they're partisans, right, so,

2145
01:59:33,120 --> 01:59:37,600
Speaker 1: I you know, but I do know she's skeptical of

2146
01:59:38,360 --> 01:59:41,040
Speaker 1: giving Trump too much power. And that's what's going to

2147
01:59:41,040 --> 01:59:46,000
Speaker 1: be interesting here. But I talked about I here's something

2148
01:59:46,000 --> 01:59:51,880
Speaker 1: else to ponder. If Peltello wins that senen see and

2149
01:59:51,960 --> 01:59:54,640
Speaker 1: let's say Democrats net three. Let's say they pick up

2150
01:59:55,120 --> 01:59:57,680
Speaker 1: North Carolina, Maine, in Alaska, but they come up short

2151
01:59:57,720 --> 02:00:00,760
Speaker 1: in Ohio, they come up short in Iowa, come up

2152
02:00:00,760 --> 02:00:04,800
Speaker 1: short in Texas. So they've netted three. It's fifty to fifty.

2153
02:00:04,960 --> 02:00:11,600
Speaker 1: Jada Vance breaks the tie unless one of the senators

2154
02:00:11,640 --> 02:00:15,240
Speaker 1: coxing with the Republicans decides to instead caucase with the Democrats.

2155
02:00:16,320 --> 02:00:21,680
Speaker 1: Lisa Murkowski's likely her term ends in twenty twenty eight.

2156
02:00:21,840 --> 02:00:23,960
Speaker 1: It's up in her seats up in twenty twenty eight.

2157
02:00:24,880 --> 02:00:31,120
Speaker 1: This could be her last two years in Congress, does

2158
02:00:31,200 --> 02:00:35,320
Speaker 1: she she? She has been on the record sort of

2159
02:00:37,160 --> 02:00:40,840
Speaker 1: sey you know not. She didn't come across as a

2160
02:00:40,880 --> 02:00:44,320
Speaker 1: no on this question. She was evasive but didn't which

2161
02:00:44,480 --> 02:00:52,240
Speaker 1: was never definitive, which is all that matters. Democrats win

2162
02:00:52,720 --> 02:00:55,400
Speaker 1: the three seats, and one of the three is Alaska.

2163
02:00:55,800 --> 02:00:58,360
Speaker 1: I could easily see Lisa Murkowski going, look my state,

2164
02:00:59,640 --> 02:01:02,000
Speaker 1: I said, you know, I can you know my state

2165
02:01:02,080 --> 02:01:05,920
Speaker 1: has decided they want a Democratic Senate this cycle. So

2166
02:01:05,960 --> 02:01:11,000
Speaker 1: for now I'm going to organize with them. I don't

2167
02:01:11,040 --> 02:01:14,160
Speaker 1: think it's out of the realm of possibility. So Alaska's

2168
02:01:14,200 --> 02:01:16,680
Speaker 1: fourth on the list, and in number five I'm going

2169
02:01:16,760 --> 02:01:21,600
Speaker 1: to put Texas. I think we have learned a couple

2170
02:01:21,640 --> 02:01:25,960
Speaker 1: of things. First of all, the fact that so much

2171
02:01:26,000 --> 02:01:28,320
Speaker 1: money has poured into this race, that it is an

2172
02:01:28,600 --> 02:01:31,640
Speaker 1: enormous amount of money is being spent. The two biggest

2173
02:01:31,640 --> 02:01:34,720
Speaker 1: spenders right now are trailing in the polls in each side.

2174
02:01:34,960 --> 02:01:38,800
Speaker 1: Cornan and his allies trailing in the polls, tall Rico

2175
02:01:38,840 --> 02:01:43,520
Speaker 1: and his allies trailing in the polls. I think the

2176
02:01:43,560 --> 02:01:46,160
Speaker 1: open court look it is. It's going to be a

2177
02:01:46,240 --> 02:01:50,840
Speaker 1: runoff on the Republican side, for sure, there is a

2178
02:01:50,840 --> 02:01:52,960
Speaker 1: third cannon on the ballot among Democrats. It's a guy,

2179
02:01:53,080 --> 02:01:55,160
Speaker 1: you know, a lesser known candid, not a lot of money.

2180
02:01:56,120 --> 02:01:58,320
Speaker 1: But if we're looking at it, all the polling is

2181
02:01:58,360 --> 02:02:01,120
Speaker 1: indicated that that Tallarico it's going to be very close

2182
02:02:02,920 --> 02:02:06,080
Speaker 1: forty nine eight out of the question. And then we

2183
02:02:06,120 --> 02:02:10,200
Speaker 1: go to another runoff. And there's all sorts of game

2184
02:02:10,280 --> 02:02:16,600
Speaker 1: theory here that I've heard from various Texas watchers. So

2185
02:02:17,840 --> 02:02:23,040
Speaker 1: Crockett wins the primary bad news for Cornin, right if

2186
02:02:23,040 --> 02:02:27,040
Speaker 1: it's corn and Paxton, because the assumption among Republicans is

2187
02:02:27,120 --> 02:02:35,720
Speaker 1: anybody can beat Crockett Tall Rico wins. Do Senate Republicans

2188
02:02:35,760 --> 02:02:40,600
Speaker 1: panic beg Trump to endorse Cornin, and maybe Trump does

2189
02:02:40,640 --> 02:02:46,560
Speaker 1: it because he wants to save a senen see or

2190
02:02:46,600 --> 02:02:51,120
Speaker 1: they both go to runoffs and everybody stays out, and

2191
02:02:51,160 --> 02:02:54,640
Speaker 1: that becomes just a we get basically two and a

2192
02:02:54,680 --> 02:02:57,960
Speaker 1: half more months of more cowboll out of Texas. The

2193
02:02:58,040 --> 02:03:01,400
Speaker 1: point is is that here's what we do know. Texas

2194
02:03:01,520 --> 02:03:05,760
Speaker 1: is not a deep red state right now. It may

2195
02:03:05,840 --> 02:03:08,720
Speaker 1: end up going back to a more redder version of itself.

2196
02:03:09,280 --> 02:03:12,440
Speaker 1: But in the moment, it's not a very red state. Right,

2197
02:03:12,520 --> 02:03:18,120
Speaker 1: there's you know, look, protectionist policies aren't good. Isn't good

2198
02:03:18,120 --> 02:03:21,640
Speaker 1: for Texas business, So tariffs have not been good for Texas.

2199
02:03:21,760 --> 02:03:25,120
Speaker 1: This this border issue actually hasn't been great for the

2200
02:03:25,120 --> 02:03:32,320
Speaker 1: Texas economy. You've got a divided Republican party over this

2201
02:03:32,480 --> 02:03:36,360
Speaker 1: education plan by the governor and the voucherization programs which

2202
02:03:36,360 --> 02:03:40,680
Speaker 1: are not This is not universally popular. This is very

2203
02:03:40,720 --> 02:03:44,280
Speaker 1: it's not even universally popular among Republicans. It's got its

2204
02:03:44,400 --> 02:03:47,960
Speaker 1: detractors on the right because school choice in rural America

2205
02:03:48,040 --> 02:03:53,960
Speaker 1: is tough to actually make happen. You'd love to have

2206
02:03:54,080 --> 02:03:57,400
Speaker 1: school choice where you got to go fifty miles, and

2207
02:03:57,440 --> 02:03:59,960
Speaker 1: then the alternative is just homeschooling. Some parents would love

2208
02:04:00,040 --> 02:04:03,880
Speaker 1: to do that, not all parents can. So you've got

2209
02:04:03,880 --> 02:04:07,280
Speaker 1: that issue sitting over the head. Then you've got the

2210
02:04:07,440 --> 02:04:10,840
Speaker 1: character issues of Ken Paxton and one of the things

2211
02:04:10,840 --> 02:04:14,240
Speaker 1: that's been well, Trump may be mister Teflon when it

2212
02:04:14,280 --> 02:04:16,600
Speaker 1: comes to Epstein, and Trump maybe mister Teflon when it

2213
02:04:16,600 --> 02:04:19,720
Speaker 1: comes to this other stuff. Voters have been harder on

2214
02:04:19,840 --> 02:04:23,200
Speaker 1: anybody else that has tried to come across as Teflon Don.

2215
02:04:25,160 --> 02:04:27,800
Speaker 1: So I'm skeptical that somehow Texas voters are going to

2216
02:04:27,840 --> 02:04:30,320
Speaker 1: hold their nose on the morals and ethics stuff when

2217
02:04:30,320 --> 02:04:34,560
Speaker 1: it comes to Backston. Maybe I'm wrong, and boy Paxton

2218
02:04:35,080 --> 02:04:37,160
Speaker 1: Paxston is going to hope that he's got the teflon

2219
02:04:37,440 --> 02:04:41,120
Speaker 1: that Don has, that he wears the Teflon Don coding.

2220
02:04:41,240 --> 02:04:44,920
Speaker 1: We'll see, but I'm putting Texas in that fifth slot.

2221
02:04:45,000 --> 02:04:47,680
Speaker 1: But look on my watch list on here, Look I

2222
02:04:47,880 --> 02:04:51,000
Speaker 1: was competitive. It's interesting they Nathan Sage got out. So

2223
02:04:51,080 --> 02:04:53,680
Speaker 1: the Democratic primary. What that really means is that it

2224
02:04:53,720 --> 02:04:56,200
Speaker 1: guarantees that their Democrats don't have to go to their weird,

2225
02:04:56,240 --> 02:05:01,000
Speaker 1: funky convention clause. If no candidate gets more than you know,

2226
02:05:01,200 --> 02:05:04,440
Speaker 1: gets thirty five percent in Iowa, they go to some convention,

2227
02:05:04,560 --> 02:05:09,480
Speaker 1: which then turns into a problem. The unique thing about

2228
02:05:09,480 --> 02:05:11,920
Speaker 1: what I saw in Iowa recently is the Republicans put

2229
02:05:11,960 --> 02:05:16,280
Speaker 1: out a poll of the Democratic primary indicating that Schumer's

2230
02:05:16,320 --> 02:05:19,960
Speaker 1: favorite candidate was trailing badly. It was trailing Zach Wall's badly.

2231
02:05:20,040 --> 02:05:25,640
Speaker 1: Josh Turik, I'm trying to figure out why they released it.

2232
02:05:26,520 --> 02:05:30,200
Speaker 1: They want to put some pressure on they're hoping to

2233
02:05:30,240 --> 02:05:33,760
Speaker 1: create some tension. It hasn't really been an animated primary

2234
02:05:35,160 --> 02:05:37,320
Speaker 1: on that side of the aisle, so we'll see. But

2235
02:05:37,400 --> 02:05:39,880
Speaker 1: I found it interesting that the Republicans made it clear

2236
02:05:40,840 --> 02:05:44,160
Speaker 1: that they wanted, Hey, look, we think Zach Walls is

2237
02:05:44,240 --> 02:05:47,400
Speaker 1: running away with this, and I think in their mind

2238
02:05:47,560 --> 02:05:50,400
Speaker 1: they do. Again, I don't quite get it. I think

2239
02:05:50,480 --> 02:05:53,040
Speaker 1: they want to run against Walls, not against Turrek, who's

2240
02:05:53,080 --> 02:05:58,080
Speaker 1: got a profile, you know, a paralympian and he's got

2241
02:05:58,080 --> 02:06:00,880
Speaker 1: sort of a patriotic profile from a redder part of

2242
02:06:00,880 --> 02:06:05,600
Speaker 1: the state. Anyway, I'm trying to figure out the three

2243
02:06:05,640 --> 02:06:08,760
Speaker 1: dimensional chess that that those guys want to be playing

2244
02:06:08,760 --> 02:06:13,480
Speaker 1: over there, and then keep an eye on South Dakota.

2245
02:06:14,360 --> 02:06:17,440
Speaker 1: You know, the Christy Nome exit ramp is being built.

2246
02:06:17,600 --> 02:06:20,880
Speaker 1: The question is what's the exit ramp look like? Is

2247
02:06:20,920 --> 02:06:24,520
Speaker 1: it another job in the administration? Does she get, you know,

2248
02:06:25,240 --> 02:06:28,680
Speaker 1: is it that she run primaries Mike Rounds for US Senate.

2249
02:06:30,360 --> 02:06:33,960
Speaker 1: If she primaries Mike Rounds for US Senate, you could

2250
02:06:34,040 --> 02:06:37,560
Speaker 1: have a mini Texas situation. Right, Mike Rounds is a

2251
02:06:37,560 --> 02:06:39,680
Speaker 1: better general election candidate than he would be a primary

2252
02:06:39,760 --> 02:06:42,600
Speaker 1: Republican primary candidate. Mike Rounds is not the most pro

2253
02:06:42,720 --> 02:06:48,000
Speaker 1: MAGA guy. Christy Nome obviously made a decision to go

2254
02:06:48,080 --> 02:06:52,400
Speaker 1: down the Maga road. She obviously wouldn't jump in if

2255
02:06:52,400 --> 02:06:55,720
Speaker 1: Trump wouldn't endorse her. Does he? Does Trump want to

2256
02:06:55,720 --> 02:06:59,320
Speaker 1: cross John Thune here, who he is a pretty decent

2257
02:06:59,360 --> 02:07:06,520
Speaker 1: working relationship and ship. It's a wild card that isn't crazy.

2258
02:07:07,720 --> 02:07:11,520
Speaker 1: Her numbers among the Republican base in South Dakota are

2259
02:07:11,560 --> 02:07:15,600
Speaker 1: better than Rounds's numbers, even though she might be a

2260
02:07:15,640 --> 02:07:19,960
Speaker 1: weaker candidate if she got in as the nominee, and

2261
02:07:20,040 --> 02:07:25,720
Speaker 1: it certainly would expose a lot of wounds inside the

2262
02:07:25,760 --> 02:07:28,960
Speaker 1: Republican Party. And I'm certainly how many of these divisive

2263
02:07:28,960 --> 02:07:33,200
Speaker 1: primaries do they want? Then again, if Trump wants a

2264
02:07:33,280 --> 02:07:37,600
Speaker 1: Republican Party in his image, Mike Grounds isn't part of

2265
02:07:37,600 --> 02:07:41,360
Speaker 1: that image. So I will tell you this. I've had

2266
02:07:41,400 --> 02:07:45,000
Speaker 1: Brian Begs, who is the independent candidate running in that

2267
02:07:45,120 --> 02:07:48,000
Speaker 1: race because Democrats are unlikely to nominate anybody, and Bangs

2268
02:07:48,080 --> 02:07:51,080
Speaker 1: is sort of from the Dan Osborne school of running,

2269
02:07:51,120 --> 02:07:53,839
Speaker 1: you know, sort of being an opposition but not comfortable

2270
02:07:53,840 --> 02:07:58,080
Speaker 1: associating with either of the major parties. I think you

2271
02:07:58,120 --> 02:08:01,040
Speaker 1: have to start taking a look at that candidacy. If

2272
02:08:01,080 --> 02:08:04,480
Speaker 1: Nome gets into this race, I think it's a semi

2273
02:08:04,480 --> 02:08:07,680
Speaker 1: long shot. But there's no doubt that an exit ramp

2274
02:08:07,800 --> 02:08:10,840
Speaker 1: is being constructed in the west wing for Christinoman Corey Lewandowski.

2275
02:08:11,560 --> 02:08:13,840
Speaker 1: The question is whether a there is an exit ramp

2276
02:08:13,880 --> 02:08:17,280
Speaker 1: there they would take willingly, and b whether the exit

2277
02:08:17,360 --> 02:08:22,320
Speaker 1: ramp is indeed South Dakota Senate. But just something to

2278
02:08:22,360 --> 02:08:23,880
Speaker 1: keep an eye on. And then again I go back

2279
02:08:23,920 --> 02:08:27,440
Speaker 1: to the other race. I want to mention, just don't

2280
02:08:27,480 --> 02:08:30,600
Speaker 1: sleep on Minnesota. I think Michelle Tafoya is a really

2281
02:08:30,600 --> 02:08:34,959
Speaker 1: strong recruit. She's consolidating support quickly, she's sort of getting

2282
02:08:35,280 --> 02:08:37,800
Speaker 1: She's gotten much further ahead in the primary than I

2283
02:08:37,800 --> 02:08:41,200
Speaker 1: expect her to get pretty quickly, and you could have

2284
02:08:41,200 --> 02:08:45,320
Speaker 1: a divisive primary ala Michigan between Angie Craig and Peggy Flanagan,

2285
02:08:45,840 --> 02:08:49,880
Speaker 1: the lieutenant governor. She's pretty progressive. Angie Craig is more

2286
02:08:50,720 --> 02:08:55,440
Speaker 1: sort of in the Alissa Slotkin Abigail Spamberger school of

2287
02:08:57,520 --> 02:09:01,600
Speaker 1: Democratic members of Congress. But in Minnesota that might not

2288
02:09:01,680 --> 02:09:06,000
Speaker 1: be you know, she might not might not work in

2289
02:09:06,040 --> 02:09:09,880
Speaker 1: a Democratic primary. We'll see then again, Amy Klobshar being

2290
02:09:10,440 --> 02:09:14,240
Speaker 1: the likely Democratic nominee for governor. I think Angie Craig's

2291
02:09:14,280 --> 02:09:16,680
Speaker 1: a little bit more of an Ami Clobshar Democrat than

2292
02:09:16,760 --> 02:09:21,000
Speaker 1: the lieutenant governor is. But keep an eye on that primary.

2293
02:09:21,200 --> 02:09:24,680
Speaker 1: If it gets messy, if it gets gaza, if you

2294
02:09:24,720 --> 02:09:26,720
Speaker 1: get gazed up a little bit, and maybe it does,

2295
02:09:26,760 --> 02:09:30,760
Speaker 1: maybe it doesn't. Right, we know Michigan's gonna does that

2296
02:09:31,640 --> 02:09:33,640
Speaker 1: does that divide the party a little bit and does

2297
02:09:33,640 --> 02:09:35,800
Speaker 1: it end up helping Tafoya? I think if this were

2298
02:09:35,880 --> 02:09:38,720
Speaker 1: not I think Tafoya would be a stronger candidate for

2299
02:09:38,760 --> 02:09:41,560
Speaker 1: Senati if Donald Trump weren't president at the moment, like

2300
02:09:41,600 --> 02:09:45,560
Speaker 1: I think, as an outsider, maybe even as a challenger.

2301
02:09:45,600 --> 02:09:48,080
Speaker 1: And so you know, this could be the first of

2302
02:09:48,120 --> 02:09:52,640
Speaker 1: two campaigns. Remember, if Clobshar wins the gubernatorial race, they'll

2303
02:09:52,680 --> 02:09:54,920
Speaker 1: be immediately another seat up in twenty eight because there'll

2304
02:09:54,920 --> 02:09:57,400
Speaker 1: be a special election to fill out that to fill

2305
02:09:57,400 --> 02:10:02,840
Speaker 1: out clover Shar's term. So, you know, Tafoya against an

2306
02:10:02,840 --> 02:10:08,440
Speaker 1: appointed senator in twenty eight if she, you know, runs

2307
02:10:08,440 --> 02:10:11,080
Speaker 1: a respectable race that you know does like you know

2308
02:10:11,480 --> 02:10:13,760
Speaker 1: what we're watching potentially in Michigan with Mike Rogers. It's

2309
02:10:13,760 --> 02:10:15,960
Speaker 1: on the ballot. Last time lost in a competitive race.

2310
02:10:16,000 --> 02:10:20,200
Speaker 1: Now he's there again this time, so Minnesota's on that

2311
02:10:20,240 --> 02:10:23,320
Speaker 1: watch list. I think the overall national environment makes it

2312
02:10:23,360 --> 02:10:26,200
Speaker 1: an uphill battle for Tafoya, makes it an uphill battle

2313
02:10:26,200 --> 02:10:28,200
Speaker 1: against the wind. It was already an uphill battle. Now

2314
02:10:28,240 --> 02:10:31,240
Speaker 1: she's got wind in her face. The political win, but

2315
02:10:33,400 --> 02:10:36,360
Speaker 1: it's possible. This is the You know that this is

2316
02:10:36,480 --> 02:10:39,120
Speaker 1: just year one of a four year of a basically

2317
02:10:39,160 --> 02:10:41,120
Speaker 1: a three year campaign to eventually get to the US

2318
02:10:41,120 --> 02:10:44,520
Speaker 1: Senate in twenty twenty eight. So there you go. There's

2319
02:10:44,640 --> 02:10:47,160
Speaker 1: my top five. Let me recount it. Number one North Carolina,

2320
02:10:47,280 --> 02:10:50,840
Speaker 1: number two, Main number three, Michigan, number four, Alaska, number five,

2321
02:10:50,920 --> 02:10:53,880
Speaker 1: Texas most likely to flip. And I will just tell

2322
02:10:53,880 --> 02:10:57,760
Speaker 1: you this. I think we all know our two political parties,

2323
02:10:57,800 --> 02:11:04,360
Speaker 1: Paxton versus Crockett the ultimate sort of matchup where the

2324
02:11:04,360 --> 02:11:08,760
Speaker 1: party elites didn't want either nominee. I think, for where

2325
02:11:08,760 --> 02:11:13,320
Speaker 1: our politics are headed, that might be the more intriguing matchup.

2326
02:11:13,840 --> 02:11:19,000
Speaker 1: All right, let's take some questions, ask Chuck. All right,

2327
02:11:19,040 --> 02:11:22,440
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, it's late for me. Well, it's actually

2328
02:11:22,520 --> 02:11:25,240
Speaker 1: very early Wednesday morning as I'm tapping this. Because I

2329
02:11:25,240 --> 02:11:27,040
Speaker 1: wanted you guys to have the most up to date feed,

2330
02:11:27,480 --> 02:11:31,280
Speaker 1: So I'm only going to do three questions. First three

2331
02:11:31,320 --> 02:11:36,800
Speaker 1: on my list. Tyler, Salt Lake City. What strikes me

2332
02:11:36,840 --> 02:11:39,880
Speaker 1: about all this recent tariff business is that since Trump's

2333
02:11:39,880 --> 02:11:43,160
Speaker 1: tariffs are struck down, it feels as though Trump and

2334
02:11:43,520 --> 02:11:47,520
Speaker 1: AI are fighting against American business owners. They basically said,

2335
02:11:47,520 --> 02:11:49,560
Speaker 1: there's no way you're getting any of the tariff money back,

2336
02:11:49,800 --> 02:11:52,040
Speaker 1: almost as if American business owners are the enemy as

2337
02:11:52,080 --> 02:11:55,240
Speaker 1: well as the country on whom Trump wants to impost tariffs.

2338
02:11:55,280 --> 02:11:57,600
Speaker 1: I suppose it's really no surprise. Ultimately Trump's interest seemed

2339
02:11:57,600 --> 02:12:00,600
Speaker 1: to land on himself only. Look, I I agree, and

2340
02:12:00,640 --> 02:12:02,720
Speaker 1: I think that this is what's going to happen. He's

2341
02:12:02,720 --> 02:12:06,280
Speaker 1: going to have lawsuits and this is what we, like

2342
02:12:06,320 --> 02:12:09,640
Speaker 1: I said, we talked about last April, which is eventually

2343
02:12:10,440 --> 02:12:12,560
Speaker 1: this is going to end up costing the government more

2344
02:12:12,560 --> 02:12:15,720
Speaker 1: money than they ever collect. Right, He's we're going to

2345
02:12:15,760 --> 02:12:18,080
Speaker 1: have to give them money back. The federal government's going

2346
02:12:18,160 --> 02:12:20,200
Speaker 1: to get sued. These folks are going to get their

2347
02:12:20,240 --> 02:12:24,800
Speaker 1: money back, and no doubt it'll get spent twice, which

2348
02:12:24,800 --> 02:12:28,240
Speaker 1: means it'll only double, you know, probably cost us even

2349
02:12:28,280 --> 02:12:32,120
Speaker 1: more in our debt and You're right, it is. You know,

2350
02:12:32,880 --> 02:12:37,320
Speaker 1: it's particularly small business owners, right. The tariffs hit small

2351
02:12:37,360 --> 02:12:41,520
Speaker 1: business owners more than any other part of this economy.

2352
02:12:43,400 --> 02:12:46,640
Speaker 1: Next question Scott c Plas Sidus, New Mexico. Hey, I

2353
02:12:46,680 --> 02:12:51,200
Speaker 1: see that Trump has pulled his endorsement of Colorado Congressman

2354
02:12:51,280 --> 02:12:54,480
Speaker 1: Jeff Heard and his endorsement primary challenger Hope Schleppmann. Congressman

2355
02:12:54,520 --> 02:12:56,320
Speaker 1: Herd spoken against the tariffs and is in favor of

2356
02:12:56,320 --> 02:12:58,520
Speaker 1: the scota's decision. Do you think that Congressman Heard or

2357
02:12:58,560 --> 02:13:00,880
Speaker 1: other city of congressman person's running against a Trump endorse

2358
02:13:00,920 --> 02:13:03,240
Speaker 1: primary challenger could win their primaries. If so, who are

2359
02:13:03,280 --> 02:13:04,720
Speaker 1: likely candidates and would it be a sign of some

2360
02:13:05,240 --> 02:13:07,760
Speaker 1: rust in the joints of Trump's armors. As always, thanks

2361
02:13:07,920 --> 02:13:09,640
Speaker 1: for all you offer us. We are Richard Forrett, Well,

2362
02:13:09,640 --> 02:13:11,760
Speaker 1: thank you for saying that. Look, this is one of

2363
02:13:11,760 --> 02:13:14,520
Speaker 1: my favorite primaries to watch because I do think if

2364
02:13:14,520 --> 02:13:18,680
Speaker 1: Trump wants to continue to rule the party by fear,

2365
02:13:18,760 --> 02:13:23,120
Speaker 1: he's got to be willing to use his endorsement to

2366
02:13:23,320 --> 02:13:26,760
Speaker 1: punish anybody that doesn't go along with his with his agenda.

2367
02:13:28,480 --> 02:13:30,320
Speaker 1: This is very dangerous to do. This is a tough

2368
02:13:30,360 --> 02:13:33,800
Speaker 1: district and heard one of close race, and now he's

2369
02:13:34,480 --> 02:13:37,600
Speaker 1: only making it harder, which means that House, the House

2370
02:13:37,640 --> 02:13:39,800
Speaker 1: Republican Majority Committee's going to have to spend money to try

2371
02:13:39,800 --> 02:13:42,840
Speaker 1: to save an incumbent against a presidentially endorsed like saying

2372
02:13:42,840 --> 02:13:47,040
Speaker 1: what happened with Massy? I think they're worth watching, right

2373
02:13:47,840 --> 02:13:51,720
Speaker 1: if especially you know we're going to find out. I

2374
02:13:51,760 --> 02:13:55,280
Speaker 1: think Herd's primary is not till August and Massey, He's

2375
02:13:55,360 --> 02:13:57,760
Speaker 1: going to take place in May and Massie and Kentucky.

2376
02:13:57,800 --> 02:14:02,240
Speaker 1: I think we'll tell us, we'll tell us, We'll tell

2377
02:14:02,320 --> 02:14:05,600
Speaker 1: us what the atmosphere is right, how how to vote

2378
02:14:05,600 --> 02:14:09,480
Speaker 1: it is the president's base to the president. I think

2379
02:14:09,520 --> 02:14:13,200
Speaker 1: we'll get a clue on Herd's chances in May with

2380
02:14:13,280 --> 02:14:16,400
Speaker 1: the Massy primary in Kentucky. All right, last question comes

2381
02:14:16,400 --> 02:14:19,560
Speaker 1: from Mike and Honolulu. Hey there, thank you for all

2382
02:14:19,560 --> 02:14:20,960
Speaker 1: the work you do on the podcast. First thing I

2383
02:14:20,960 --> 02:14:23,040
Speaker 1: listened to on the days you drop nice So seeing

2384
02:14:23,080 --> 02:14:27,000
Speaker 1: articles on Maha pesticide fight stalling and Florida Rep. Maria

2385
02:14:27,400 --> 02:14:30,000
Speaker 1: Alvirus Salazar's Dignity Act, et cetera. How much will all

2386
02:14:30,040 --> 02:14:32,240
Speaker 1: these really move voters at the midterms. I feel like

2387
02:14:32,240 --> 02:14:33,920
Speaker 1: I've met a lot of folks over the past few years,

2388
02:14:33,920 --> 02:14:37,160
Speaker 1: and in spite of disappointment or frustrations, have still supported

2389
02:14:37,160 --> 02:14:40,600
Speaker 1: the Republican ticket. Thanks Mike and Honolulu. Well, I look

2390
02:14:40,600 --> 02:14:43,080
Speaker 1: at it. I think I've compared it to erosion of

2391
02:14:43,120 --> 02:14:46,400
Speaker 1: a riverbed. Right, you don't see it every day if

2392
02:14:46,400 --> 02:14:48,040
Speaker 1: you check the river bed every day, but if you

2393
02:14:48,080 --> 02:14:50,400
Speaker 1: come back once a month, then you can notice when

2394
02:14:50,440 --> 02:14:54,640
Speaker 1: the riverbed is eroding. And I don't think any of

2395
02:14:54,640 --> 02:14:59,320
Speaker 1: these these things, you know, take take their toll cumulatively

2396
02:15:00,440 --> 02:15:04,080
Speaker 1: a bit, and I think you know it's these little

2397
02:15:04,160 --> 02:15:08,480
Speaker 1: chip away So you lose some Maha moms because essentially,

2398
02:15:08,840 --> 02:15:13,160
Speaker 1: you know, Monsanto bought Trump's executive order on the pesticides

2399
02:15:13,200 --> 02:15:17,000
Speaker 1: thing with a massive donation. You know, are you losing

2400
02:15:17,000 --> 02:15:19,440
Speaker 1: everybody in support of Kennedy. No, but you're losing a

2401
02:15:19,480 --> 02:15:21,640
Speaker 1: little bit. You're going to lose some small business owners

2402
02:15:21,720 --> 02:15:26,080
Speaker 1: under your insistence on continuing to execute this terraf regime. Right,

2403
02:15:26,200 --> 02:15:28,600
Speaker 1: You're going to lose a few of the civil libertarians

2404
02:15:28,600 --> 02:15:33,800
Speaker 1: on how you've handled Ice. You're certainly going to lose

2405
02:15:34,240 --> 02:15:39,880
Speaker 1: some in the who didn't want military adventurism, whether it's

2406
02:15:39,920 --> 02:15:44,160
Speaker 1: Venezuela or Ran or elsewhere. Right, and it's just chip away,

2407
02:15:44,200 --> 02:15:45,800
Speaker 1: chip away, chip away. And if you look at the

2408
02:15:45,880 --> 02:15:49,760
Speaker 1: national poll numbers for him, he doesn't gain supporters at

2409
02:15:49,800 --> 02:15:52,160
Speaker 1: the moment. He hasn't gained supporters in a long time.

2410
02:15:53,040 --> 02:15:55,920
Speaker 1: It is literally he's rowing a boat with holes in it,

2411
02:15:56,680 --> 02:15:59,240
Speaker 1: and he's got somebody trying to get water out of

2412
02:15:59,240 --> 02:16:01,560
Speaker 1: the boat so it doesn't sink, and they're trying to row,

2413
02:16:02,440 --> 02:16:05,680
Speaker 1: and water's coming and he's taking on water and so

2414
02:16:06,520 --> 02:16:08,480
Speaker 1: you know, maybe it's a slow leak. Maybe he can

2415
02:16:08,520 --> 02:16:13,640
Speaker 1: get to shore before the boat sinks. But I take

2416
02:16:13,680 --> 02:16:16,960
Speaker 1: your look, and I think it is again, I don't

2417
02:16:16,960 --> 02:16:19,680
Speaker 1: look at it to his base supporters, it's really about

2418
02:16:19,840 --> 02:16:22,680
Speaker 1: independence in this fast medal. You know, where he's got

2419
02:16:22,720 --> 02:16:25,080
Speaker 1: to worry his supporters or is supporters excited about what

2420
02:16:25,120 --> 02:16:27,600
Speaker 1: he's doing or are they simply devoted and saying, oh no,

2421
02:16:27,680 --> 02:16:29,600
Speaker 1: it hasn't changed. But are they going to crawl and

2422
02:16:29,680 --> 02:16:34,720
Speaker 1: broken glass to vote right? You know, this is where

2423
02:16:34,760 --> 02:16:39,480
Speaker 1: I have skepticism about the rural communities in the agricultural Midwest.

2424
02:16:39,520 --> 02:16:41,680
Speaker 1: I mean, farmers have taken it on the chin with

2425
02:16:41,720 --> 02:16:46,840
Speaker 1: these tariffs. You know, this is this is why I

2426
02:16:46,840 --> 02:16:49,480
Speaker 1: I'd be fascinated to watch a Republican primary in South

2427
02:16:49,560 --> 02:16:53,000
Speaker 1: Dakota between Nome and Rounds, Rounds who has been a

2428
02:16:53,040 --> 02:16:54,800
Speaker 1: skeptic of these tariffs, and Nome who will have no

2429
02:16:54,920 --> 02:16:58,400
Speaker 1: choice but to defend the president on it. That you know,

2430
02:16:58,440 --> 02:17:00,440
Speaker 1: it's it's like, okay, let's see it. Let's see what

2431
02:17:00,480 --> 02:17:02,520
Speaker 1: a campaign like that looks like. There's no primary in

2432
02:17:02,640 --> 02:17:06,440
Speaker 1: Iowa on the Republican side that's active, but that'd be

2433
02:17:06,480 --> 02:17:09,760
Speaker 1: another one where if you did, you would you'd possibly

2434
02:17:09,840 --> 02:17:13,600
Speaker 1: have a divide on how the tariffs impact the economy

2435
02:17:13,600 --> 02:17:20,000
Speaker 1: in the Midwest. So I look at all of that

2436
02:17:20,240 --> 02:17:22,400
Speaker 1: and it's just sort of chip away, chip away, chip away,

2437
02:17:22,480 --> 02:17:26,000
Speaker 1: chip away. You know, you're not going to have this massive.

2438
02:17:26,800 --> 02:17:30,680
Speaker 1: What you're going to have is some people just don't

2439
02:17:30,680 --> 02:17:35,520
Speaker 1: show up the vote. Others maybe do vote third party,

2440
02:17:36,240 --> 02:17:38,800
Speaker 1: and still others may actually cross the aisle, at least

2441
02:17:38,840 --> 02:17:42,560
Speaker 1: in congressional ways, because you can you can rationalize voting

2442
02:17:44,000 --> 02:17:46,880
Speaker 1: for the other party and still be a Trump supporter.

2443
02:17:47,959 --> 02:17:49,560
Speaker 1: But you may think, you know, what, he needs a

2444
02:17:49,560 --> 02:17:52,480
Speaker 1: little check or the government needs a check, and I

2445
02:17:52,520 --> 02:17:55,840
Speaker 1: don't like these tariffs, I like Trump doing these other things,

2446
02:17:56,640 --> 02:17:58,760
Speaker 1: but you know, let me get Congress to hold him

2447
02:17:58,800 --> 02:18:02,959
Speaker 1: back on tariffs. You know, that's another it's a in

2448
02:18:03,040 --> 02:18:07,920
Speaker 1: some ways the opposition to Trump is almost penalty free,

2449
02:18:07,240 --> 02:18:10,920
Speaker 1: if if in some of the in in some cases

2450
02:18:10,920 --> 02:18:14,080
Speaker 1: here for some of these Midwestern governors or Midwestern voters.

2451
02:18:14,160 --> 02:18:22,560
Speaker 1: So you know, it's it's a you're right that one

2452
02:18:22,760 --> 02:18:26,440
Speaker 1: isn't going to like cause this massive groundswell of people

2453
02:18:26,520 --> 02:18:32,039
Speaker 1: leaving them. But it's the chip aways. It's the political

2454
02:18:32,080 --> 02:18:35,520
Speaker 1: death by a thousand cuts. All right, I'm gonna go

2455
02:18:35,560 --> 02:18:39,920
Speaker 1: get some sleep. Thank you for tuning in, thanks for

2456
02:18:39,920 --> 02:18:42,360
Speaker 1: sticking around, and I'll see you in twenty four hours.