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Speaker 1: You know your house smells, don't get mad. Don't get mad.

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Speaker 1: My house smells too. I'm not I'm not indicting you.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you keep a clean home, but just time

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Speaker 1: means you're going to acquire smells. Whether those are cooking

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Speaker 1: smells that get in your paint, your carpet, maybe their

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Speaker 1: animals smells. Maybe you're a smoker, or someone else was

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Speaker 1: just living create smells. I didn't realize that my home

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Speaker 1: had a smell to it until I got my first

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Speaker 1: Eden Pure Thunderstorm, the greatest air purifier I've ever owned

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Speaker 1: in my life. This thing. I had it plugged in

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Speaker 1: for two hours. I came back in the room and

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Speaker 1: my air smells so clean. I now owned three of them.

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Speaker 1: I'm not making that up. This thing has absolutely changed

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Speaker 1: me on top of what it's done from my allergies.

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Speaker 1: Go get one, get two, you like me, and get three.

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Speaker 1: Go to Eden Pure deals dot com. Make sure you

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Speaker 1: use the promo code Jesse that gets you ten bucks

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Speaker 1: off and free shipping. Eden here deals dot com promo

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Speaker 1: code Jesse. I'm gonna get you ready mentally for the election.

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Speaker 1: This Hunter Biden stuff getting actually worse for Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: and finally a movie trailer. I can get behind all

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Speaker 1: that's coming up right now. And I'm right. I was

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Speaker 1: at a party on Saturday night. I'm not trying to brag,

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Speaker 1: but I know people. Sometimes we gather with other people,

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Speaker 1: and this was not a political event. It was just

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Speaker 1: a small neighborhood gathering. Certainly not a burning rager or anything.

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Speaker 1: But while I'm at this party, I'm outside hanging out

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Speaker 1: with my buddies. Music is a little loud, and I

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Speaker 1: look inside and one of the neighbor ladies is staring

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Speaker 1: right at me, and I see her see me and

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Speaker 1: starts marching right for me, and she looks like she

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Speaker 1: has something serious on her mind. I'm wondering that did

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Speaker 1: I leave the toilet seat up in the house or something.

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Speaker 1: I'm wondering what's happening. She's marching right at me, march

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Speaker 1: is right up to me. She says, I need to

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Speaker 1: talk to you for a minute, okay, And now I'm thinking,

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Speaker 1: right which one of my boys broke their window with

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Speaker 1: a baseball or something. Pust me aside, and she says,

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Speaker 1: I'm really really worried about this election, and I need

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Speaker 1: you to tell me everything's gonna be okay. So if

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Speaker 1: she's in that place, I have to assume many, many, many,

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Speaker 1: many many of you are in that place. I'm picking

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Speaker 1: it up all over the place. It's all over social media.

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Speaker 1: I have family members texting me, friends calling me, Hey,

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Speaker 1: what's gonna happen? What's gonna tell me? This? Tell me that?

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Speaker 1: Allow me to get you ready? All right, one, Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump is going to win the election, just my own prediction. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: anything can happen. But understand this, as I've told you before,

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Speaker 1: my viewers already know this. Sitting presidents get reelected. That's

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Speaker 1: just the general rule. I know there are exceptions. I

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Speaker 1: understand Bill Clinton, be George H. W. Bush. He had

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Speaker 1: a third party candidates, a significant one to help him

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Speaker 1: do that. Also, there are exceptions like Jimmy Carter. Well,

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Speaker 1: when there are gas lines going around the block and

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Speaker 1: interest rates at twenty percent and you have a phenom

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Speaker 1: on the other side, obviously it can happen. So I

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Speaker 1: realize there are exceptions, But sitting presidents can get reelected.

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Speaker 1: Their sitting presidents don't get reelected. There at least is

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Speaker 1: normally a phenomenal politician on the other side, Ronald Reagan,

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Speaker 1: Bill Clinton, don't throw anything at the TV. Bill Clinton

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Speaker 1: was a phenomenal politician, and even he needed a third

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Speaker 1: party candidate to help him beat George H. W. Bush.

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Speaker 1: He loses that election without Ross Borrow. All that said,

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Speaker 1: I think Trump wins because Joe Biden sucks so bad

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Speaker 1: and Donald Trump's a sitting president, and it really comes

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Speaker 1: down to that. And let me tell you something else.

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Speaker 1: If you hadn't seen a single poll number, not one,

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Speaker 1: let's just say, I could blank those out of your mind.

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Speaker 1: Who would you say is winning this election? You see

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Speaker 1: the energy out there, you see the rallies, you see

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Speaker 1: the debates. If you didn't see a single poll, who

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Speaker 1: would you say is winning? Joe Biden called it a

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Speaker 1: lid on in person campaign events for the last nine

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Speaker 1: days of his election. I have never seen anything like

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Speaker 1: that in my life. He is nine days away from

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Speaker 1: potentially becoming the president of the United States of America,

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Speaker 1: the leader of the free world, one of only a

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Speaker 1: few men who've ever led this country. And he went

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Speaker 1: home and he's not leaving again until election day. Wrap

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Speaker 1: your mind around that. That guy not beating Donald Trump. However,

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Speaker 1: right now on the oracle and you're certainly right, I

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Speaker 1: did give myself the nickname. Who would know better than me?

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Speaker 1: I know you think on the oracle, but obviously Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden could win you. Nobody really knows for a fact.

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Speaker 1: But let's say Joe Biden wins. Well, let me ask

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Speaker 1: you something. This is gonna get a little dark. Just

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Speaker 1: hang with me. If you were gonna die in a month,

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Speaker 1: you have some brain eating amba or something like that,

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Speaker 1: and you're gonna die in a month, would you want

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Speaker 1: to know or would you not want to know? Of

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Speaker 1: course you'd want to know. I would want to know

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Speaker 1: a status on where I am. I mean, what would

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Speaker 1: you do if I was gonna die in a month?

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Speaker 1: Brain eating mean? But oh no, that's terrible. I'd come

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Speaker 1: to one more of these for you so I could

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Speaker 1: look you in the eye and say goodbye, thanks for

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Speaker 1: the memories, and I'd ride off and I'd hang out

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Speaker 1: with the fan for a month, make as many memories

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Speaker 1: as I could, and check out. I'd want to know

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Speaker 1: so I know where I stand and can plan accordingly.

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Speaker 1: Everything I told you about sitting presidents getting reelected as

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Speaker 1: a fact, that part is a fact. So given all

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Speaker 1: these circumstances, and given the history of it. If this

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Speaker 1: Democrat candidate, however you feel, Republican or Democrat, whatever you are,

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Speaker 1: If Joe Biden is able to unseat a sitting president,

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Speaker 1: a sitting president who's signing peace steals that nobody's ever

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Speaker 1: done before, a sitting president who was who presided over

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Speaker 1: the greatest economy in American history, if not the greatest

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Speaker 1: one of them. Oh, I understand, he's rude and brash,

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Speaker 1: and people don't like this and don't like that. I

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Speaker 1: get that. But on the whole, Donald Trump's a good president,

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Speaker 1: very very good. If Joe Biden can hide in his

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Speaker 1: house and beat Donald Trump, it's not idea. I realize

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Speaker 1: that it's terrible. It sucks. I'll be doing an election

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Speaker 1: night special right here, licking my wounds on live television

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Speaker 1: with you that night. If it happens. I'll be bummed

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Speaker 1: with you. I'm not telling you it's fine. But doesn't

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Speaker 1: that tell you where we are as a nation if

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Speaker 1: that happens, And isn't that in and of itself beneficial?

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Speaker 1: Doesn't that tell you all you need to know about

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Speaker 1: the American electorate where it's moved, about the power of

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Speaker 1: the American media, about the power of social media. It's

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Speaker 1: a rough health assessment. Yeah, you got a brain eating, Amima,

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Speaker 1: You're about to die. That sucks, but I'd rather know,

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Speaker 1: and so should you. And let me just tell you this.

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Speaker 1: I'm making a vow to you right now. At some

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Speaker 1: point a Democrat is going to get elected president. And

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Speaker 1: that sucks. I know it's true, but they are. And

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Speaker 1: look maybe in eight days if it's Joe Biden or

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Speaker 1: somebody ten years from now. I'm telling you right now,

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Speaker 1: I'm still going to be here talking to you, Lord

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Speaker 1: Willing every single night. I am not going to scream

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Speaker 1: and yell and make you more miserable and stressed out

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Speaker 1: every night. I remember what it was like eight years

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Speaker 1: under Obama, and I remember what it was like flipping

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Speaker 1: through the channels or the radio and everybody's mad because

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Speaker 1: it sucks. You're not a country's not going the direction

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Speaker 1: you want, and everybody's screaming and yelling, and you finish

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Speaker 1: an hour of TV and you're ten times it is

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Speaker 1: stressed out now as you were beforehand. I will not

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Speaker 1: do that. I will not do that. We are still

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Speaker 1: gonna laugh. Obviously, there are gonna be times I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be upset, but We're still gonna laugh. We're gonna march

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Speaker 1: through this and we'll be fine if Joe Biden wins,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think you will, but if Joe Biden wins,

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Speaker 1: all right, that's where we are, that's who we are. Now,

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Speaker 1: life goes on. We will get through it together. See,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you feel better now. One thing I found

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Speaker 1: bizarre is the Hillary Clinton thing. And this is what

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Speaker 1: I mean. I understand that I can't relate to the

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Speaker 1: ruthlessly ambitious Clintons and many people out there who are

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Speaker 1: just they'll die, they'll they'll carve out their own mother's

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Speaker 1: kidneys in order to be in power. But this is

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Speaker 1: a woman again, Democrat, Republican, doesn't matter. This is a woman.

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Speaker 1: She was First Lady of the United States of America

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Speaker 1: for eight years. If that's all you did, that's cool.

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Speaker 1: And then she was a United States Senator from New York,

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Speaker 1: one of the most powerful states in the country, and

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Speaker 1: then she was Secretary of State of the United States

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Speaker 1: of America. Ted is awesome. And all that matters to her, apparently,

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Speaker 1: is that she did not get elected President of the

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Speaker 1: United States. This woman will not go away, go away. Woman.

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Speaker 1: Nobody wants to hear you talk, but nevertheless, she's here.

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Speaker 1: It makes me literally sick to my stomach to think

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Speaker 1: that we'd have four more years of this abuse, use

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Speaker 1: and destruction of our institutions, and damaging of our norms

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Speaker 1: and our values, and lessening of our leadership. And the

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Speaker 1: list goes on. What does that mean? Destruction of our institutions?

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Speaker 1: Barack Obama and Nicolinton's completely reshaped all of our cultural institutions.

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Speaker 1: And they had help, obviously from the media and Hollywood

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Speaker 1: and otherwise. Donald Trump is the return to normalcy for

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Speaker 1: so many, but in their minds, that return to normalcy

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Speaker 1: is abominable. Also, I understand it's going to be embarrassing

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Speaker 1: if Joe Biden is elected President of the United States.

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Speaker 1: How embarrassing. Well, I want you to picture this campaign, gaff.

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Speaker 1: I'm about to show you a new one. Oh, I know,

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Speaker 1: it's a brand new one. I want you to picture

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Speaker 1: four years, one year of this world stage talking with

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Speaker 1: world leaders, national events. It's going to be embarrassing. This

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Speaker 1: is the most consequent not because I'm running, but because

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Speaker 1: who I'm running against. This most consequential election in a long, long,

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Speaker 1: long time, and the character of the country in my view,

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Speaker 1: is literally on the ballot. What kind of country we're

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Speaker 1: gonna be four more years of George Georgia. Hes gonna

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Speaker 1: find ourselves in a position where, if Trump gets elected,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna be We're gonna be in a different world.

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Speaker 1: George George, who George? People? People, screw up. Look I

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Speaker 1: talked for four hours a day, three on the radio,

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Speaker 1: one on TV, every single day, Monday through Friday. I

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Speaker 1: know you're gonna find this shocking. Even I don't say

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Speaker 1: the right words sometimes, however, screw up to this, this

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Speaker 1: big from the president of the United States of America.

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Speaker 1: That's really gonna suck. Which, again back to my original point.

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Speaker 1: If that guy is able to beat Donald Trump, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's where we are. And you know what, people forget

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Speaker 1: about Joe Biden because the media is out selling this

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Speaker 1: nice guy routine so hard. Joe Biden's nasty. Remember all

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Speaker 1: the clips ives showed you about him snapping at media people, nasty,

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Speaker 1: snapping at supporters, potential supporters. Remember what he called the

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Speaker 1: one guy fat. Well, now he's calling people chumps. I'll

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Speaker 1: work is hard for those who don't support me, as

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Speaker 1: those should do, including those chumps with the microphone out there.

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Speaker 1: Look those chumps with the mic. He keeps doing that.

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Speaker 1: He did that at the debate the other night too.

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Speaker 1: That's not about red states, lose states. I want to

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Speaker 1: be president of the United States. Also, everyone who's had

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Speaker 1: problems those are the people in the red States. Obama

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Speaker 1: did this all the time. He was famous for it.

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Speaker 1: And of course the media, let's get away with it.

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Speaker 1: Stop being partisan. Hey, everybody wants to play political games.

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Speaker 1: Stop playing political games and just do all the Democrat

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Speaker 1: things that I want to do. But look, at least

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Speaker 1: at least Kamala Harris will take over once Biden craps

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Speaker 1: out after about a month. You're considered the most liberal

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Speaker 1: United States senator. Somebody said that, and it actually was

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Speaker 1: Mike Pence on the debate stage. But yeah, well, actually

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Speaker 1: the nonpartisan gov Track has rated you as the most

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Speaker 1: liberal senator. You supported the Green New Deal, you supported

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Speaker 1: Medicare for All, You've supported legalizing marijuana. Joe Biden doesn't

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Speaker 1: support those things. So are you going to bring the policies,

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Speaker 1: those progressive policies that you supported as senator into a

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Speaker 1: Biden administration? What I will do and I promise you

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Speaker 1: this and this is what Joe wants me to do.

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Speaker 1: This was part of our deal. I will always share

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Speaker 1: with him my lived experience as it relates to any

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Speaker 1: issue that we confront And I promised Joe that I

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Speaker 1: will give him that perspective and always be honest with him.

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Speaker 1: And is that a socialist or progressive perspective? No, laughing.

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Speaker 1: She's always doing this. It's like there's some kind of

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Speaker 1: glitch in the robot or something. Whenever she's asked a

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Speaker 1: hard question. Democrats are so used to just getting tossed

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Speaker 1: softball after softball. When she's pressed on anything, she does

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Speaker 1: the weird laughing. It's creepy. All that may have made

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Speaker 1: you uncomfortable, But I'm right. We got a great, great

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Speaker 1: show for you tonight. We'll be back. This Hunter Biden

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Speaker 1: stuff emails connection to Joe Biden. It got worse over

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Speaker 1: the past couple of days. And I understand you watch

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Speaker 1: this show with your kids. I'm not going to elaborate

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Speaker 1: on everything else that came out, but it does not

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Speaker 1: paint Hunter Biden in a very good light. I'll put

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Speaker 1: it to you that way. Plus, I don't generally do

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Speaker 1: the personal gossip stuff for anybody. Just don't care about it,

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Speaker 1: but it is a big deal. And remember this is

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Speaker 1: not a Republican disinformation campaign. The Federal Bureau of Investigation,

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Speaker 1: the Delaware State Police. There are at least four copies

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Speaker 1: of this hard drive out there now. Multiple people can

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Speaker 1: see it and confirm it and put their eyes on

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Speaker 1: it and hands on it. We know this stuff to

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Speaker 1: be true. Now, that doesn't mean it's actually going to

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Speaker 1: move the media when it comes to the election. I

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Speaker 1: don't think it will. I think this is one of

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Speaker 1: those things that will give people a moment of pause.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they'll have heard about it, but let's be honest.

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Speaker 1: Media has blacked it out. Social media has blacked it out.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to go into all that again, but

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Speaker 1: let's keep in mind the New York Post broke this story.

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Speaker 1: They're still locked out of their Twitter account for breaking

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Speaker 1: this story, this story that's been confirmed. That's how orwellian

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Speaker 1: things are now. So with the freeze out and the

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Speaker 1: fact that it's hard to explain, I don't think it's effective.

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Speaker 1: And I'll be honest with you, I find that frustrating.

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Speaker 1: Now that's because I'm a political nerd as you are.

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Speaker 1: Because you're watching me, right now, so you're more than

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Speaker 1: happy to comb through the Okay, Well, this email said this,

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Speaker 1: hang on and that. When you merge that with this one,

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Speaker 1: he's obviously talking about this guy and the normal person.

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Speaker 1: You already lost them. Their eyes are glazed over. You

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Speaker 1: lost them completely, so they can't It's hard to get

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Speaker 1: people to follow along within realize how bad it looks.

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Speaker 1: And the simple truth is this or Biden is a

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Speaker 1: man with a a long list of problems. And I'm

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Speaker 1: not even going to pile on the guy. We all

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Speaker 1: know somebody who struggles mightily with addiction and other things.

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Speaker 1: God bless them. I hope they get the help they need.

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Speaker 1: But the truth is Joe Biden, very obviously, if you

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Speaker 1: look into this at all, used his position as vice

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Speaker 1: president to get a lot of money in his son's hands,

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Speaker 1: and if you read the emails, his son was required

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Speaker 1: to kick some of that money upstairs to Joe. These

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Speaker 1: are facts. We know them now, and not only is

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Speaker 1: there a media freeze out, Joe Biden is allowed to

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Speaker 1: get away with saying things like this when he's asked

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Speaker 1: about it. From what I've read to know, the intelligence

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Speaker 1: community warned the President that Giuliani was being fed disinformation

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Speaker 1: from the Russians. And we also know that Putin is

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Speaker 1: trying very hard to spread information about Joe Biden. And

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Speaker 1: so when you put the combination of Russia, Giuliani, the

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Speaker 1: president together, it's just what it is. It's a smear

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Speaker 1: campaign because he has nothing he wants to talk about.

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Speaker 1: Is what is he running on? What is he running on?

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Speaker 1: A smear campaign? And it's one thing to say that,

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Speaker 1: but it's another thing to have the reporter, Yeah, that

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Speaker 1: must suck. Sorry, sorry, you're being smeared. He gets away

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Speaker 1: with this time and time again. Nobody said he did

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Speaker 1: anything wrong. He'll he'll yell at at people, Well, what

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Speaker 1: are you talking about? Joe All we're reading the emails.

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Speaker 1: Everyone said he did anything wrong. No one said he

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Speaker 1: did anything wrong. It's weird. And you know what else

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Speaker 1: is weird? Journalists who spent the last four years whining

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Speaker 1: about Donald Trump treating them poorly, constantly just laying down

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Speaker 1: and taking it when Democrats scold them like Joe Biden does. Here. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm mister blind. If I can questions a controversy could

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Speaker 1: team to tell you about your son's There is no

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Speaker 1: controversy about It's all a lot. It's a flat lie

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Speaker 1: because the president has nothing else to run on. If

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Speaker 1: you notice, while American people are talking about what's happening

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Speaker 1: to their families, he has no plan and the debate,

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Speaker 1: he has no plan. Everything from the Wall Street turn over,

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Speaker 1: every other major, no news out of the saidbody's saying

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Speaker 1: is simply not true about my son. But it's classic Trump,

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Speaker 1: classic Trump. Wait what how's that an answer? And again,

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Speaker 1: take the stupid mask off. You're ninety feet away from everybody.

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Speaker 1: Take the stupid mask off. Good freaking grief. Chris Wallace,

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Speaker 1: to his credit, hammered away at Gretchen Whitmer about it, respectfully.

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Speaker 1: I do need to ask Governor. I do need to

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Speaker 1: ask you this. Though there is evidence and maybe the

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Speaker 1: Biden didn't take money, but clearly his brother his we're

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Speaker 1: involved in business dealings. To was talk about the Biden

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Speaker 1: name one, Wasn't that inappropriate for that to be going

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Speaker 1: on while he was vice president? Sure sounds like influenced paddling,

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Speaker 1: and doesn't he owe a fuller accounting? You know, Chris,

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Speaker 1: I think that Joe has sat for questions, He has

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Speaker 1: answered these questions. The American people aren't going to be

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Speaker 1: distracted from the fact that this election is about the

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Speaker 1: dinner table issues, and the dinner table issue of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty is a Trump administration that has never been able

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Speaker 1: to have a national strategy and COVID they get away

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Speaker 1: with us all the time. Well, he's already answered the questions.

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Speaker 1: We just played the interview for you. Never answers the questions.

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Speaker 1: It's Russian, this information. It's maddening. It can get maddening. Well,

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Speaker 1: like I said, I don't think it's ever going anywhere anyway. Now,

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Speaker 1: let me tell you what is going somewhere. Home title theft.

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Speaker 1: Home title theft is ramping up, not down. This is

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Speaker 1: the hot new crime in the cyber thief world because

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Speaker 1: it's easy money for them, and by the time you

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Speaker 1: find out you've been robbed, they're long gone with the cash.

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Speaker 1: They hack in, they get your home title, which is online,

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Speaker 1: they forge your signature on it, they take a loan

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Speaker 1: out against it. You have to pay that home loan

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Speaker 1: back dot your home insurance. You were going to pay

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Speaker 1: that loan back, and they're gone. Home title lock is

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Speaker 1: the only thing that will stop them. Go to hometitlelock

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Speaker 1: dot com and signed up today. They'll shut it down

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Speaker 1: the second day detect tampering home titlelock dot com used

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Speaker 1: to promo code Radio get thirty three days of protection.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back joining me now, senior policy analysts from

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Speaker 1: the Independent Women's Forum, and somebody who's more than happy

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Speaker 1: to argue with me when she thinks I'm raw. So

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Speaker 1: I'm going to toss in, as stepman my theory out there,

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Speaker 1: and as I am pretty positive Donald Trump's gonna win reelection.

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Speaker 1: Sitting presidents get re elected. If they don't get reelected,

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Speaker 1: it's because there's generally a phenomen on the other side.

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Speaker 1: Nobody in their right mind would accuse Joe Biden of

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Speaker 1: being one of those things. But if it doesn't happen,

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to comfort people tonight by saying, at least

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Speaker 1: we know where we are. I mean, if that idiot

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Speaker 1: can unsee the sitting president who's got one realist of

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Speaker 1: good accomplishments as sucks. But that's where we are as

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Speaker 1: a country. Now, where do you stand? Well, I'm not

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Speaker 1: quite as pessimistic as a lot of people are about

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Speaker 1: this election, particularly because I just don't think I don't

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Speaker 1: even think it's a nefarious thing. I know some people

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Speaker 1: think it is with the polls. But there's two aspects

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Speaker 1: of this that I just I doubt the polls are

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Speaker 1: really capturing. One is, obviously we're all going to be

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Speaker 1: voting in completely different ways. There's gonna be a different

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Speaker 1: electorate this year because of all the different ways in

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Speaker 1: which we're voting. Now that that has definitely something to

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Speaker 1: worry about in terms of voter fraud. But it also

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Speaker 1: means that matching up who is or is not going

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Speaker 1: to turn out I could I could make a dozen

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Speaker 1: different arguments for each side as to whether each side

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Speaker 1: will be helped or hurt by that. So that's one aspect,

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Speaker 1: as a technical one, I don't think we know who

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Speaker 1: is going to vote even on sort of normal terms

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Speaker 1: this time around. And the second part of it is

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Speaker 1: a little deeper. There is a major realignment going on

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Speaker 1: in American politics. There are groups of voters moving across

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Speaker 1: the aisle from both sides, and I think that that's

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Speaker 1: something that started in twenty sixteen but is continuing to

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Speaker 1: pick up seam and probably will reshape both parties over

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Speaker 1: the course of the next several years. Again, this is

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Speaker 1: not something that posters. Posters have to rely on guessing

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Speaker 1: what the electorate looked like in you know, twenty eighteen

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Speaker 1: or twenty sixteen. And I think in a time of realignment,

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Speaker 1: those kinds of guesses are often, you know, not great

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Speaker 1: and not as good as they might have been, let's say,

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Speaker 1: between two thousand four or in two thousand and six,

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Speaker 1: or you know, two thousand and six and twenty ten.

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Speaker 1: I think when the electorate is fundamentally changing underneath and

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Speaker 1: people are moving back and forth between the parties, that's

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Speaker 1: not something that polls can really capture. So I don't

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Speaker 1: know who's ahead. I don't know who's gonna win. But

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Speaker 1: I don't think that Joe Biden is nine points ahead

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Speaker 1: or whatever ridiculous numbers we've seen sometimes from some of

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Speaker 1: these polls. I think this is a tight race. And

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Speaker 1: as explained to me, because I'm gonna ask you about

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Speaker 1: both of these, who on the right is moving to

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Speaker 1: the left and why? And actually, I'm for once, I'm

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Speaker 1: not insulting anybody, I genuinely want to know you talk

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Speaker 1: about realignment. I don't disagree at all. Who is that

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Speaker 1: voter who was who was the career Republican voter who's

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Speaker 1: now penciling in Joe Biden's name. I think there is

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Speaker 1: a real suburban women phenomenon, educated suburban women who were

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Speaker 1: voting Republican, especially in a lot of states like Nevada, Colorado,

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Speaker 1: and frankly like Virginia has been lely taken over by

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Speaker 1: by the district by Washington, DC right, but prior to

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Speaker 1: that happening, there were a lot of Republican suburban voters.

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Speaker 1: Those voters are i think, much more de leaning than

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Speaker 1: they have been in the past, and there's there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of reasons for that, starting with the fact that

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Speaker 1: this is just one group of voters to Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: personality does not resonate with right. But on the flip

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Speaker 1: side of the ledger, you have a Democratic Party that's

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Speaker 1: increasingly just blending sort of a technocratic neoliberalism with a

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Speaker 1: very very far left cultural issues. So like a woke

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Speaker 1: neoliberal party that is backed by all of America's top corporations.

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Speaker 1: I think is the Democratic Party's future. And if that's

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Speaker 1: the case, I mean they're not whether whether whatever happens

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Speaker 1: in this election, you know, long term or medium term,

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Speaker 1: they are not going to retain their rust belt working

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Speaker 1: class voters. Those voters are simply completely out of step

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Speaker 1: with the Democratic Party, and they are moving into the GOP.

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Speaker 1: And I see that as being solidified over time rather

425
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 1: than withdrawing. I don't think folks who crossed over, the

426
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 1: small number of voters who crossed over, who made a

427
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: huge difference in the Rust belt last time in twenty sixteen,

428
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 1: I think they're more firmly in the GOP than they

429
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 1: were four years ago, and probably bringing more of their

430
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: Union buddies with them. So I think those are those

431
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: are just two of the categories that are crossing over.

432
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 1: But generally, I think we'll see ideological realignment in both

433
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: parties are going to stand for something different than they

434
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 1: did ten years ago. GOP appears to be moving towards

435
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: populism more, which I hate. I mean, I think populism's

436
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: dog crap, but I don't. I also don't think you

437
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 1: can deny the success of it as far as winning elections.

438
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 1: So far, it appears to be more of a popular party.

439
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 1: I mean, let's be honest. The President of United States

440
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: can stand up there in debates and say things like

441
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 1: I'm going to protect people with pre existing conditions and

442
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 1: things like that. That is a populist thing I'm certainly

443
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: not conservative, is that what you're talking about? You see

444
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 1: the GEOP more of a nationalist populist party going forward.

445
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a nationalist party and

446
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 1: a more working class party. And again, like you, I'm

447
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 1: very limited government. You and I, you know, have hold

448
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:12,360
Speaker 1: some unpopular positions, for example, about the complete fiscal unsustainability

449
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 1: of various middle class entitlement programs right like social Security.

450
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,679
Speaker 1: Those are really deeply unpopular positions in the country. I

451
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: think where they are the most voters that are up

452
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: for grabs is actually in a quadrant that gets very

453
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 1: little attention until maybe the last four years because Donald

454
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,479
Speaker 1: Trump did speak to them. Is people who are are

455
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 1: culturally conservative. They're worried about the local left. They're worried

456
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 1: about the direction, the cultural direction of the Democratic Party.

457
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: They feel completely out of step with that Democratic Party

458
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: that is increasingly a party of people who work in

459
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: fortune five hundred companies and their children who went to

460
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 1: college for you know, gender studies. Right. Those folks though,

461
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 1: hold bigger government views, So they're they're not you know, socialists,

462
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: but they are definitely more towards the center or even

463
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 1: left of center on economic views certainly far to the

464
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: left of you and I, and they are moving into

465
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, and whether you and I like it

466
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 1: or not, that's going to change the Republican Party. It's

467
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: going to change the platform. I see. Our party is

468
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 1: probably making peace with social security, making peace with deficit spending.

469
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 1: I mean, really functionally. You and I know this hasn't

470
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,919
Speaker 1: This has only been rhetoric anyway. I didn't see this

471
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:24,719
Speaker 1: as a thing. I don't see it's actually worse for us,

472
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,440
Speaker 1: because it's not like the Republican Party was actually serious

473
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: about fiscal conservatism, and they maybe it will be better

474
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: for them not to pay lip service every four years

475
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: to it. But I don't even think we're going to

476
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 1: be paying that lip service anymore. I think we're going

477
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: to be changed by an influx of voters. But I

478
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: think what holds, what will hold the future Republican coalition together,

479
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: will be a sense that some essential thing about patriotism

480
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 1: and citizenship is under it being under attack, And indeed,

481
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 1: I think it is under attack. I don't think that's

482
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: an exaggeration. I don't think it is either. I see

483
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 1: this as very much as it sounds really cliche, but

484
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: it's very much a patriotism versus non patriotism electorate anymore.

485
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 1: The Democratic Party doesn't even necessarily pretend to love the country.

486
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: I don't know that that's I don't know why that

487
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 1: people consider it radical when I say that they don't

488
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: even really pretend to love it. The GOP, in turn,

489
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 1: goes all in with eight trillion American flags and fighter

490
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: jets and everything else. I think that that's just what

491
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: we're going to have now for the film. It's really

492
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: been interesting in the last So I'm originally from California

493
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 1: and we've been doing this forever. So in California for

494
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,719
Speaker 1: a long time, at least, you know, a couple of decades,

495
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: it has been a tell that you are a secret

496
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: conservative or Republican or libertarian. Even to put an American

497
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: flag either on your car out in front of your house.

498
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: It was sort of the secret way of conservatives like

499
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: you know, wink wink, nudge, nudge, I'm one of you two.

500
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: Because it had become so unpopular among people on the

501
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 1: left to actually express patriotism for the United States. That's

502
00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: now gone national right. You can be I would say,

503
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,479
Speaker 1: you can be eighty ninety percent sure that when your

504
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: neighbor puts an American flag out in front of their house,

505
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 1: they're they're more than likely voting for Donald Trump. Right.

506
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,479
Speaker 1: That's I don't think that's generally a good thing for

507
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: the country, that patriotism has become the province of only

508
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 1: one half of the electorate. But that's the sad reality. Well,

509
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 1: and as then why are we a country now? I'm

510
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to go off on my national divorce thing,

511
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 1: as you've yelled at me about before, but in general,

512
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: if half the people don't want to be here, and

513
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 1: I'm not under the impression this is going to be easier,

514
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 1: we should have a civil war, idiotic talk like that.

515
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: I'm not under that impression. But if half the people

516
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 1: don't want to live here, and we're balkanizing in that way,

517
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 1: why not just do what every other nation has done

518
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: throughout history and just move along? Well, because if you

519
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 1: look at the map, it's virtually impossible, right, and people

520
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: look at us as blue and red states. It's not

521
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: blue and red states, it's blue and red counties, right,

522
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:03,959
Speaker 1: And I just I think it's completely not feasible for us,

523
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: even even aside from all of the other constitutional concerns.

524
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 1: I do agree with Lincoln. I don't think the constitution

525
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: permits the session so um. But even aside from all

526
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 1: of those concerns, just pragmatically, we are a mixed people

527
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: right Like there really isn't this grand sorting. It's starting

528
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: to happen, Like people are moving out. For example, the

529
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 1: Republican middle class is moving out of California, mostly into

530
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: more red areas. So maybe we'll see that kind of

531
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 1: of sorting, and maybe federalism will help us take down

532
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: the temperature of this a little bit through that kind

533
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 1: of sorting. But I mean, the left has national ambitions,

534
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't see them leaving the red states alone.

535
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, I do think

536
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: our fates are tied together, which is why, as you know,

537
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: on this program and elsewhere, I'm always talking about how

538
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: if Conservatives want to survive this, we got to think institutionally.

539
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: We got to think about education. We got to think

540
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 1: about what the voters of ten, twenty thirty years from

541
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: now are learning, because that's why we're in this match.

542
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 1: That's why the American flag has become a political sympole

543
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: for only half of the political spectrum and the other

544
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 1: half things that it's a xenophobic, you know, awful jingoistic

545
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: thing to display the flag of our country. It's because

546
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 1: of the education system, it's because of the universities. It's

547
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 1: in this entire sort of cultural moment that we're living

548
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 1: through is payback for ignoring culture and ignoring the institutions

549
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: that shape culture for the last twenty or thirty years.

550
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: And we cannot let that happen again. If we have

551
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 1: any shot, we cannot let that happen again. We can't

552
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: let it continue. She's right, people, And as stepman, thank

553
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 1: you man, thanks all right. As you know, I don't

554
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: tell you to do crazy things. I generally am the

555
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 1: one here telling you just calm down, relax, we'll figure

556
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 1: it out. We'll be fine. And this is another one

557
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: of those moments. I know you saw the news today

558
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: about the tao. I get it. You're doing the same

559
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 1: thing I'm doing. Uh has anyone seen my four oh one?

560
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: K It's gone now, I get I get it. You

561
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: don't have to freak out. You don't have to yank

562
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: all your money on the stocks and bonds. You need

563
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: to make a gold ira part of your portfolio. That's

564
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: all I get a hold of gold Alliance. They will

565
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 1: walk you through every single step getting a gold IRA.

566
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 1: It's really really easy. Diversify. That's all I'm saying. Go

567
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: to gold Alliance dot com slash jesse. That's gold Alliance

568
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: dot com slash Jesse. We'll be back joining me now

569
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: to break down all kinds of smart things that I

570
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 1: obviously can't break down for you is Chris Wilson is

571
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: a GOP polster and research. He also did analytics and

572
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: digital strategy as the director for Ted Cruise in twenty sixteen. Chris,

573
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: why is it hard to pull the American public? Now?

574
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 1: I don't understand it. I hear this all the time.

575
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 1: I know it's true. People tell me it's hard. I

576
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 1: don't understand why it's hard, though, you're the man break

577
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 1: it down for me. Well, I don't know how hard

578
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: it is. It's gotten far more expensive due to everybody

579
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 1: you know, giving up their home phone and moving order

580
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 1: these things that we have to call you up on.

581
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 1: And we usually trying time a right during as you're

582
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 1: starting eat dinner, and we find that you like that

583
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 1: more if we interrupt your dinner time. But it's I

584
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,439
Speaker 1: think if you go back probably a decade or two.

585
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: It was a lot easier to get people on the phone,

586
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 1: there's no question about it, and Jesse was interested. We

587
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 1: actually had our best response rates since the late nineties.

588
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 1: At the beginning of the shutdown, there's people didn't have

589
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: anything to do with to talk to us on the phone,

590
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 1: so we were doing polls left and right, and it

591
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: got easy. But today you have to really approach people

592
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: in multiple modes of interviewing. We still do call landlines.

593
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:58,760
Speaker 1: There's about twenty to forty percent of people on depending

594
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 1: on the part of the country that will have one

595
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 1: of those, most of them on cell phones, but we

596
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 1: now also utilize text messaging, we use online surveys. I

597
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 1: mean a typical poll for US Jesse, it will have

598
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 1: four to five different manners of collecting observations for the

599
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: purposes of arriving at interviews. But the final thing that

600
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: makes it so difficult is something called stratifications versus waiting,

601
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: and it's something I feel very strongly about as a

602
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: Polster is we have a policy that we do not

603
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 1: wait if we can keep from it. And there's a

604
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 1: famous example in the USC poll that was done in

605
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 1: the twenty sixteen cycle where they had one African American

606
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 1: out of like things seven that they were interviewing nationally,

607
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 1: and he was a Trump supporter. So every time this

608
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: USC poll came out, it had sixteen Trump getting sixteen

609
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 1: percent of the African American vote. And because they were

610
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 1: doing as a panel and they had to wait it

611
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 1: up and make it look like it was a larger

612
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 1: portion of the population they were able to get to

613
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 1: answer their interview. It kept being so far off that

614
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: people just stopped taking their surveys seriously, and in fact,

615
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 1: they discontinued it during the cycle. So that's another's challenge

616
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 1: to exists. If you look at a place like Texas,

617
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 1: a state like Texas where it's a very diverse population,

618
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 1: or it is another one. New York's another one, and

619
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: you can't just if you've got you're doing an eight

620
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: hundred or a thousand sample interview, you've got an interview

621
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: in enough Hispanic, enough African Americans that illustrate and that

622
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,839
Speaker 1: represent their portion of the population. And it's not up

623
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 1: just to call all of them in Houston. It's got

624
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 1: to be it's got to be spread across the Strait state.

625
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: You've got to get it up in the DFW are

626
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 1: You've got to get up in the San Antonio area,

627
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 1: El Paso area, things like that. So it really does

628
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,239
Speaker 1: take you think about a thousand interviews. But I'm like, oh,

629
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 1: it's easy, just call a thousand people. It's far more

630
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 1: complex than that. It is spread across geographic and demographic

631
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 1: distinctions that have got to be monitored very tightly to

632
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 1: make sure that the pole's representative and will tell you

633
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 1: a client represent the actual truth of the situation. Chris,

634
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 1: you mentioned, you know, the credibility of the poll. One

635
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: thing that has absolutely baffled me. And I'm dying to

636
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 1: ask you this. As you see these these poles come

637
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 1: out and obviously everybody knows the major polling companies, and

638
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 1: there are smaller and some people do internal and then

639
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,280
Speaker 1: that people do ones that are blatantly biased on purpose.

640
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I was a candidate myself, I've done it before.

641
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 1: But you see these major national companies, they'll be putting

642
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 1: out polls Joe Biden's up twelve points. That's just idiotic.

643
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: And don't you as a polster, as a polling company,

644
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: don't you survive on your reputation. I don't understand why

645
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: you would publish it. Let's say you do one and

646
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:28,240
Speaker 1: it shows Donald Trump up twelve or Joe Biden up twelve.

647
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 1: Don't you look at that and think, well, okay, we

648
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 1: clearly did something wrong. Let's trash it instead of publicize it.

649
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 1: Because these people look like brons. Now, yeah, they really do.

650
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: And I'll tell you I kind of learned in this

651
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 1: industry from a gentleman by name of Lance Terrence, who

652
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: is just a legend in Republican polling. And as he

653
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 1: pointed out to me, when you're looking at a margin

654
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 1: of error of five point six percent, which is a

655
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 1: t it was a three hundred sample interview, which is

656
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: what's usually done in congressional districts, one in twenty of

657
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 1: those are wrong. And as Land said to me, you

658
00:37:56,480 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 1: have to yield to look at it. And this is

659
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 1: where the art and the science come together. You have

660
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 1: to be able to look at it and find that

661
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: one in twenty, throw that one out and redo it.

662
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: And that is I think the difference just between a

663
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,439
Speaker 1: poster who is, you know, just kind of a hack

664
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: who's thrown out numbers left and right, and those of

665
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 1: us who I would say most of all of my

666
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: friends in the industry I would put in this category.

667
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 1: I don't know anybody who falls into the hack side,

668
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 1: but they are certainly out there that if we see

669
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 1: a poll that is wrong, we throw it out and

670
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 1: we do it again, and it always happens a few

671
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 1: times per cycle, and you just kind of know it

672
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 1: whenever it comes back. So some of the ones that

673
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 1: you're talking about that are done by national media organizations,

674
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 1: I think are done in a way that you know,

675
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: you can interview more Democrats than should be representative, you

676
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: can interview more Republicans and should be representative. But I

677
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: do believe, and I've obviously got a huge personal bias here,

678
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: those of us that work for campaigns, we only stay

679
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 1: in business if we're right. If you were a candidate,

680
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 1: and you know this, if you were if I sent

681
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: you a poll that said you were going to win

682
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 1: and you lost, you probably wouldn't hire me if you

683
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 1: ran again. And that's what happens, I think is people

684
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 1: who were bad at this don't stay in business very long.

685
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 1: They typically go find something else to do. And so

686
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 1: there's really only four or five polls on each side,

687
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 1: Republican and Democrats side, that you can look at and

688
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 1: know that if they put numbers out, then you know

689
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:14,800
Speaker 1: they're good numbers. Now, I'll give you a great example.

690
00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: I'll give some compliments to one of my competitors, but

691
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 1: a guy named Lynn Boulger who put out numbers from

692
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: North Carolina showing Tom tell Us taking a lead over

693
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: cal Cunningham whenever all the local media pollings showed that

694
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 1: Cunningham was winning. Well, I gonna tell you I would

695
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: put my money on Glenn Boulger, even though he's a

696
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: competitor over the media polling in North Carolina any day

697
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: of the week. And that's why when we look at

698
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 1: these things, I do feel like there is a there's

699
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 1: a bias that's introduced. It's kind of you can create

700
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 1: a herd mentality people. If they're supporting a candidate who's losing,

701
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 1: they might be less likely to turn out and vote.

702
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: They're supporting a candida who's winning, they might be more

703
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 1: likely to turn out. And so that's why I really

704
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 1: do get frustrated with some of these the media polls

705
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: that I think are They do put their finger on

706
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,240
Speaker 1: the scale. They interview a few more Democrats, and frankly,

707
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 1: I saw a lot of this last year in twenty

708
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 1: and eighteen in Texas. As you know and you may,

709
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 1: I worked for Ted Cruz and I saw a lot

710
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: of bad polling coming out showing some of them showing

711
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,280
Speaker 1: better work ahead, some I'm showing closer than him, closer

712
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 1: than he was. And I think it's unfortunate because they

713
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 1: were trying to create a narrative that at some point

714
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 1: Kim becomes self fulfilling. You put out enough bad polling

715
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 1: showing better work is close enough to win, and what

716
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 1: happens Jesse. He goes and raises ninety million dollars and

717
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 1: he's able to buy himself a close enough race to win.

718
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 1: And it's you know, that kind of that type of

719
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 1: use of survey research does damage our credibility overall, and

720
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 1: I think it's bad for the industry. Explain to me

721
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 1: how the electorate has changed. Look you, obviously you're it's

722
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 1: your job to know it and study it. How's the

723
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 1: electorate changed recently, four years, eight years? How they changed? Well, gosh,

724
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 1: that depends on what part of the country you're looking at.

725
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 1: And I think it's going to continue to change depending

726
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 1: on who wins on November third. You can go back

727
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 1: and look at the electorate in two thousand and eight,

728
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 1: two thousand and twelve, and some of the states that

729
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 1: Obama one or came very close sin that had now

730
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: become hardcore Republican states. I mean, point to missouris one

731
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 1: where I don't know if you'll see another Democrat win

732
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 1: in Missouri for a long time. That has a lot

733
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: to do with the evolution that occurred with a voting

734
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 1: electorate because of Obama. The flip side of this is

735
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 1: there are some states and that the Republicans had were

736
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 1: very strong. You look at Colorado. Colorado was a safe

737
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 1: Republican state up until up until really Bill Clinton, and

738
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 1: then it started to flip and go the other direction.

739
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 1: So the fact is is that California's another example that

740
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 1: Republicans won California almost every year up until the mid nineties.

741
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 1: And so I think what you see in politics is

742
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 1: like anywhere else, the world is a circular place. You

743
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,439
Speaker 1: have ebbs and flows, and I know what we see

744
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 1: today in terms of the electric changing and places where

745
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 1: Republicans may be doing better probably won't be the case

746
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 1: if you have a Biden presidency, and you're gonna have

747
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: a lot of places put back that were that we're

748
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 1: becoming more Democrat, will become more Republican. A flip side

749
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,359
Speaker 1: of that is, under President Trump, just like we had

750
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 1: under President Bush and then President Bush before him, we

751
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 1: had some states that we're safe, Republican states became more competitive.

752
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: And that's just the way that it works. Whenever a

753
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: one party has the White House is because you when

754
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 1: you have that bully pulpit, how you use it has

755
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 1: an impact on voters and causes them to move one

756
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: way or the other. And I think that's what we're

757
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 1: seeing now in President Trump, and I think we'll see it,

758
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,879
Speaker 1: whether it is under four more years or eight more years,

759
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: whether the case, maybe it'll start to swing back. Speaking

760
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:25,240
Speaker 1: of bully pulpit, I'm of the belief, and I seriously

761
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 1: want you to just yell at me and call me

762
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 1: an idiot if any of this is wrong. I'm of

763
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 1: the belief that, in part because of Trump and in

764
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 1: part because of Ron De Santis, that Florida is going

765
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,760
Speaker 1: to be closer and it's going to be more solidly

766
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 1: read than it's been. You know, everybody knows Florida is

767
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 1: always a coin flip. I believe Donald Trump has it

768
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: in the bag. Although I get out there and vote

769
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 1: if you're in Florida. And therefore that's part of the

770
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 1: reason I think Trump's going to win. I don't see

771
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 1: a path for Joe Biden's victory or realistic path if

772
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,359
Speaker 1: you can't win Florida. Where am I wrong? Well, I

773
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:55,959
Speaker 1: think there are parts of the state that have become

774
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: more Republican under Donald Trump. There's no question that the

775
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 1: Cuban vote is very pro Trump, and I think he'll

776
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 1: do very well there. He seems to be he's just

777
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 1: drawing large crowds at the villages. You know, Jesse, I'll

778
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: call myself out here. In twenty sixteen, I kind of

779
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 1: was dismissive of the whole crowd theory, oh, because He's

780
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 1: getting out large crowds and Hillary Clinton couldn't get you know,

781
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 1: a few seniors to in a field on a sunny

782
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: day that I didn't feel like it it was important,

783
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 1: But the academic research shows us that it is. I mean,

784
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: Green and Grober, who's done the siminal studies in this area,

785
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: say the crowds matter, and they matter a lot because

786
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:35,800
Speaker 1: they do illustrate and demonstrate intensity and enthusiasm behind a candidate.

787
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 1: And so I think you can look at what Trump

788
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 1: has done just in the last few weeks in Florida

789
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: with the rallies. He's hat down there. It certainly does

790
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 1: demonstrate a level of intensity and enthusiasm that he's probably

791
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 1: not reflective in the polling. And there's only two reflective

792
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 1: in the polling. So I'm not going to be critical

793
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: for the polling there, but I think you're right. You

794
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 1: look at what happened there in twenty eighteen where we

795
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 1: want to Republicans want a competitive Senate race and a

796
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: competitive in fact beating income at Senator Rick Scott did

797
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 1: and then Ron De Santis winning, And I think the

798
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 1: way in which he has handled COVID compared to you know,

799
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 1: like in Andrew Cuomo or others around the country that

800
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 1: have just done abysmal jobs is an important We'll be

801
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 1: having a significant impact on the voting Florida. So I

802
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 1: agree with you. I think even though it is very

803
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 1: close right now, and this is one area where you know,

804
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:24,399
Speaker 1: Democrats did a great job on Appstey Ballance, but now

805
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 1: what we're seeing is Republicans are closing the gap, and

806
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,320
Speaker 1: early voting Republicans like to go to the polls or

807
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: something about us so we don't like to fill out

808
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:32,360
Speaker 1: the form. We'd rather go do it in person. Probably

809
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 1: lack of trust for the postal service. I don't know.

810
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:36,919
Speaker 1: But when it gets down to it, as you see

811
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: is I think you're gonna see Republicans return out in

812
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 1: significant numbers in Florida. Yes, go vote, And I agree

813
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 1: with you. I think you're right. The Donald Trump will

814
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 1: win Florida. I swear we're gonna have this freaking guy

815
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,439
Speaker 1: on for the whole hour next time. Chris Wilson, thank you, Sarah.

816
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 1: That was awesome. Man, Thank you, Jesse. Take care all right,

817
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 1: we got a movie trailer you're gonna like. I go

818
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 1: kick back and enjoy this new movie trailer. I certainly did.

819
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,959
Speaker 1: So let me get this straight. Less than a month

820
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 1: to election day and this is our candidate. Yep. H.

821
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 1: All we have to do is get him elected and

822
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 1: then we can do whatever we want. Stop this fault.

823
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 1: Get ready for a presidential candidate unlike any other. I

824
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 1: think we're good, not good. May have on eBay, then

825
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:08,959
Speaker 1: night's chins, I'm and I weekend at fight. How long

826
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:16,919
Speaker 1: do we have to keep this up? The best ones

827
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 1: have just a little colonel of truth to him. I

828
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 1: love how he's always falling towards the woman and sniff

829
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 1: in her hair. All right, we'll do this again tomorrow.

830
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 1: I'll see that. You don't have to dip forever. You

831
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 1: know that, right, You don't have to smoke forever. And

832
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 1: the reason I say it like that is I have

833
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 1: been that guy. I've been that guy. I dipped for

834
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 1: so long, and what would happen is I would decide

835
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 1: I'm gonna quit. It's bad for me. I'm gonna quit.

836
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: I'm a man, I don't need any help. I'm just

837
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 1: gonna quick cold turkey. And I would fail time and

838
00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 1: time and time again. I tried things like the pas atch,

839
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 1: it didn't work, gum, sunflower seeds, I try it at all.

840
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:07,960
Speaker 1: It's just a matter of finding the right thing to

841
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:12,320
Speaker 1: help you quit. That's Jake's Mintchew. Go put in your dip.

842
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 1: Just make sure it's Jake's Mintchew. It's tobacco free, it's

843
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 1: nicotine free, it's even sugar free. And I highly recommend

844
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: just a personal choice. I highly recommend their CBD pouches

845
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846
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847
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848
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849
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Speaker 1: off