1 00:00:15,316 --> 00:00:22,676 Speaker 1: Pushkin. I could turn on the news right now and 2 00:00:22,796 --> 00:00:26,076 Speaker 1: find someone making a prediction about the future. They might 3 00:00:26,116 --> 00:00:28,436 Speaker 1: be saying there's no way Congress is going to pass 4 00:00:28,516 --> 00:00:31,236 Speaker 1: some particular bill by the end of the year, or 5 00:00:31,516 --> 00:00:34,476 Speaker 1: maybe they'd be dead certain that the US economy is 6 00:00:34,516 --> 00:00:37,716 Speaker 1: about to start shrinking, And you know, I could try 7 00:00:37,756 --> 00:00:41,196 Speaker 1: to parse the logic and assess the evidence behind the arguments. 8 00:00:41,236 --> 00:00:43,956 Speaker 1: I could try to figure out whether these forecasters have 9 00:00:44,036 --> 00:00:47,716 Speaker 1: some ulterior motive. But I mean, come on, I don't 10 00:00:47,716 --> 00:00:50,476 Speaker 1: have time to do a research project on every claim 11 00:00:50,596 --> 00:00:53,476 Speaker 1: some pseudo expert makes in the news. What I want 12 00:00:53,596 --> 00:00:57,796 Speaker 1: is some source that will aggregate all these different predictions 13 00:00:57,836 --> 00:01:00,316 Speaker 1: about the future. I'd like it if this source could 14 00:01:00,316 --> 00:01:03,836 Speaker 1: give more weight to people who have higher conviction about 15 00:01:03,876 --> 00:01:08,396 Speaker 1: their views. And ideally this source would force the people 16 00:01:08,476 --> 00:01:11,316 Speaker 1: making prediction to put something on the line, to put 17 00:01:11,396 --> 00:01:14,156 Speaker 1: some skin in the game. I want the people predicting 18 00:01:14,196 --> 00:01:17,076 Speaker 1: the future to gain if they're right and lose if 19 00:01:17,076 --> 00:01:23,756 Speaker 1: they're wrong. I'm Jacob Goldstein, and this is What's Your Problem, 20 00:01:23,836 --> 00:01:26,676 Speaker 1: the show where entrepreneurs and engineers talk about how they're 21 00:01:26,716 --> 00:01:29,476 Speaker 1: going to change the world once they solve a few problems. 22 00:01:29,876 --> 00:01:33,756 Speaker 1: My guest today is Luana Lopez Laura, co founder of 23 00:01:33,876 --> 00:01:38,556 Speaker 1: Calshe dot com. Alshi dot com. You gotta spell it 24 00:01:38,676 --> 00:01:42,436 Speaker 1: every time I do. It's a hard name. Calshe is 25 00:01:42,476 --> 00:01:45,716 Speaker 1: an exchange kind of like a stock exchange, but when 26 00:01:45,796 --> 00:01:48,716 Speaker 1: people use Calhee, they don't make bets on stocks. They 27 00:01:48,756 --> 00:01:51,196 Speaker 1: make bets on what's going to happen in the world, 28 00:01:51,676 --> 00:01:54,396 Speaker 1: everything from what bills Congress is going to pass to 29 00:01:54,636 --> 00:01:58,516 Speaker 1: what's going to happen with inflation. Calshe's problem, Luana's problem 30 00:01:58,756 --> 00:02:01,556 Speaker 1: is this, how do you become the New York Stock 31 00:02:01,596 --> 00:02:07,156 Speaker 1: Exchange of real world events. It turns out that in 32 00:02:07,196 --> 00:02:09,876 Speaker 1: the United States, if you want to let people bet 33 00:02:09,916 --> 00:02:13,036 Speaker 1: on real world events that are not sports, you have 34 00:02:13,076 --> 00:02:17,676 Speaker 1: to get the approval of US financial regulators. Last year, 35 00:02:17,996 --> 00:02:22,036 Speaker 1: cal She became the first major prediction market to get 36 00:02:22,076 --> 00:02:25,316 Speaker 1: that approval. Their site went live and started taking bets 37 00:02:25,316 --> 00:02:28,916 Speaker 1: from ordinary people. Last summer, Louno, inter co founder, went 38 00:02:28,956 --> 00:02:32,956 Speaker 1: to MIT and in the summers they did internships on 39 00:02:32,996 --> 00:02:36,116 Speaker 1: Wall Street trading desks. That was where they got the 40 00:02:36,196 --> 00:02:39,116 Speaker 1: idea for calsh But it wasn't what the traders did 41 00:02:39,156 --> 00:02:41,756 Speaker 1: for work that inspired them. It was what they did 42 00:02:41,796 --> 00:02:46,396 Speaker 1: for fun. Constantly placing these tradeable bets with each other 43 00:02:46,516 --> 00:02:49,196 Speaker 1: on everything that was happening in the news. They called 44 00:02:49,196 --> 00:02:51,676 Speaker 1: it the market maker game. So we used to do 45 00:02:51,716 --> 00:02:54,836 Speaker 1: that like all day and the jobs video like just 46 00:02:54,876 --> 00:02:57,396 Speaker 1: turned around. Then you make a market on this news 47 00:02:57,436 --> 00:03:01,316 Speaker 1: going up on the TV, and and it was pretty 48 00:03:01,356 --> 00:03:02,916 Speaker 1: much the whole day. Because it's a lot of like 49 00:03:02,996 --> 00:03:05,116 Speaker 1: just trading stocks, this kind of behaves the same way, 50 00:03:05,196 --> 00:03:06,836 Speaker 1: right if it gets low and you want to buy 51 00:03:06,916 --> 00:03:09,756 Speaker 1: low sell high, you think there's a fair value. And 52 00:03:09,836 --> 00:03:11,756 Speaker 1: we did that all the time. So how did that 53 00:03:12,236 --> 00:03:15,796 Speaker 1: lead you to start the company? Right, So this is 54 00:03:15,836 --> 00:03:17,436 Speaker 1: one part of it. I think the other part that 55 00:03:17,556 --> 00:03:21,556 Speaker 1: was pointing us more into this prediction market route was 56 00:03:21,596 --> 00:03:25,356 Speaker 1: really that through our trading experience and fro our Finest experience, 57 00:03:25,356 --> 00:03:28,076 Speaker 1: we really realized that most trading is just based on events. 58 00:03:28,516 --> 00:03:31,396 Speaker 1: I think the best one example of this is, for example, Brexit. 59 00:03:31,556 --> 00:03:33,516 Speaker 1: Right like when my co founder was a Goldman, a 60 00:03:33,516 --> 00:03:37,396 Speaker 1: lot of different firms were calling up like his exotics 61 00:03:37,396 --> 00:03:39,156 Speaker 1: trading desk a Goldman and being like, I want to 62 00:03:39,156 --> 00:03:41,596 Speaker 1: get exposure to Brexit. So they would come up with 63 00:03:41,636 --> 00:03:45,636 Speaker 1: this very complicated type of bundles of like volatility swaps, 64 00:03:45,636 --> 00:03:48,436 Speaker 1: effects and things like that. So it's basically investors are like, well, 65 00:03:48,436 --> 00:03:50,596 Speaker 1: I think Brexit will affect the market in a bunch 66 00:03:50,636 --> 00:03:52,636 Speaker 1: of different ways, and I want to either make a 67 00:03:52,636 --> 00:03:55,596 Speaker 1: bet or hedge some risk that I have. But there 68 00:03:55,676 --> 00:03:58,316 Speaker 1: was no way you could just say give me money 69 00:03:58,356 --> 00:04:00,436 Speaker 1: if Brexit happens, or I will give you money if 70 00:04:00,476 --> 00:04:02,796 Speaker 1: Brexit happens. You couldn't just bet on the event. No, 71 00:04:03,596 --> 00:04:06,956 Speaker 1: and yeah, And for us, when we saw this like 72 00:04:07,076 --> 00:04:11,756 Speaker 1: repeated in many different experiences and coupled with like how 73 00:04:11,836 --> 00:04:13,796 Speaker 1: much we saw people just like to trade on things, 74 00:04:14,476 --> 00:04:16,836 Speaker 1: it was just nagging on our head. Why is there 75 00:04:16,836 --> 00:04:19,716 Speaker 1: no direct way that people can just trade on what 76 00:04:19,756 --> 00:04:21,956 Speaker 1: they think is going to happen, trade directly on events 77 00:04:21,956 --> 00:04:25,396 Speaker 1: to get direct exposure. So we decided to that if 78 00:04:25,436 --> 00:04:27,196 Speaker 1: someone was going to do it, it it should be us, 79 00:04:27,236 --> 00:04:29,876 Speaker 1: and we embarked on this crazy journey for the past 80 00:04:29,876 --> 00:04:31,356 Speaker 1: three years and a half. But that was kind of 81 00:04:31,356 --> 00:04:33,756 Speaker 1: the start. If the question is why doesn't a market 82 00:04:33,796 --> 00:04:35,676 Speaker 1: like this exists, Why isn't there a place where people 83 00:04:35,676 --> 00:04:38,556 Speaker 1: can just bet on events happening or not happening. What 84 00:04:38,716 --> 00:04:42,276 Speaker 1: was the answer why didn't it exist? The answers planning 85 00:04:42,316 --> 00:04:46,756 Speaker 1: clears was regulation. Basically, the background is events are deemed 86 00:04:46,756 --> 00:04:51,316 Speaker 1: as commodities and commodity derivatives trading are regulated by the CFTC, 87 00:04:51,436 --> 00:04:54,236 Speaker 1: which is a Commodity Future Trading Commission, a US regulatory 88 00:04:54,276 --> 00:04:57,996 Speaker 1: agency that never sees things like what oil futures and 89 00:04:58,116 --> 00:05:00,596 Speaker 1: wheat futures and lots of things like that right now, 90 00:05:01,236 --> 00:05:05,196 Speaker 1: giant markets, right yeah, So huge big regulator, big market, 91 00:05:05,236 --> 00:05:07,956 Speaker 1: and it clearly falls under their jurisdiction. So you decide 92 00:05:07,996 --> 00:05:10,756 Speaker 1: you want to do this, You realize that you have 93 00:05:10,796 --> 00:05:13,156 Speaker 1: to get the approval of this big US regulator, the 94 00:05:13,236 --> 00:05:17,236 Speaker 1: commadi's Futures Trading Commission, yep, and then you just go 95 00:05:17,276 --> 00:05:19,716 Speaker 1: to them and say, can we do it? No, not 96 00:05:19,756 --> 00:05:22,756 Speaker 1: at all. I said my background before, but I'm a 97 00:05:22,756 --> 00:05:25,196 Speaker 1: computer sciences I have nothing to do with I don't 98 00:05:25,196 --> 00:05:27,636 Speaker 1: know anything about the law. But we knew regulation was 99 00:05:27,636 --> 00:05:29,236 Speaker 1: a big thing, and we also knew we didn't know 100 00:05:29,236 --> 00:05:31,276 Speaker 1: anything about it. So the first day of what we 101 00:05:31,316 --> 00:05:33,596 Speaker 1: did is we just created a spreadsheet of like sixty 102 00:05:33,676 --> 00:05:35,996 Speaker 1: names of possible lawyers that we could call. You knew 103 00:05:36,036 --> 00:05:38,276 Speaker 1: you needed a lawyer, We knew I needed a lawyer. 104 00:05:39,636 --> 00:05:41,996 Speaker 1: So we went like one by one and really like 105 00:05:42,036 --> 00:05:44,196 Speaker 1: everyone was saying no, it's not even worth your time, 106 00:05:44,276 --> 00:05:46,436 Speaker 1: like you need ant same amount of money, and they're 107 00:05:46,436 --> 00:05:48,396 Speaker 1: gonna say no, Like they're gonna say no, They're gonna 108 00:05:48,436 --> 00:05:49,876 Speaker 1: say no, They're gonna say no, they're gonna say now. 109 00:05:49,956 --> 00:05:51,676 Speaker 1: So you're calling all these lawyers on the list and 110 00:05:51,716 --> 00:05:54,676 Speaker 1: people are like, don't bother. Bad idea, not gonna work. 111 00:05:54,676 --> 00:05:57,756 Speaker 1: And then what happens, right, And then I had a 112 00:05:57,796 --> 00:06:00,396 Speaker 1: friend who went actually to Harvard Law school, and then 113 00:06:00,436 --> 00:06:02,276 Speaker 1: she had another friend who had a friend who had 114 00:06:02,276 --> 00:06:05,516 Speaker 1: a friend and then like for fourth degree connection, we 115 00:06:05,556 --> 00:06:08,396 Speaker 1: got connected to this law firm in New York and 116 00:06:08,436 --> 00:06:11,196 Speaker 1: then that law for New those lawyer that works with 117 00:06:11,276 --> 00:06:13,156 Speaker 1: us too today. His name is Jeff Ben. Then he 118 00:06:13,196 --> 00:06:17,876 Speaker 1: was an x XCFTC official. Okay, and he said maybe 119 00:06:17,996 --> 00:06:19,996 Speaker 1: let's think about it, and we're like, look, we're gonna 120 00:06:19,996 --> 00:06:22,036 Speaker 1: take anything we can get it and maybe it's better 121 00:06:22,036 --> 00:06:25,396 Speaker 1: than know. And then it's just a huge long engagement 122 00:06:25,436 --> 00:06:28,156 Speaker 1: of like present to them, you send certain materials, They 123 00:06:28,156 --> 00:06:30,516 Speaker 1: give a lot of feedback on what they think is bad, 124 00:06:30,516 --> 00:06:33,596 Speaker 1: which is always massive list, and then you go back 125 00:06:33,636 --> 00:06:36,196 Speaker 1: to them and they are like, okay, these ones maybe 126 00:06:36,236 --> 00:06:38,556 Speaker 1: and then like this one's was still concerned about this 127 00:06:38,636 --> 00:06:40,516 Speaker 1: and now we have all these other concerns. How long 128 00:06:40,516 --> 00:06:42,716 Speaker 1: did you think it was gonna take when you started, Um, 129 00:06:42,956 --> 00:06:45,956 Speaker 1: we initially very very optimistic and thought it was gonna 130 00:06:45,996 --> 00:06:49,676 Speaker 1: take around six months. And then and it was four months. 131 00:06:49,716 --> 00:06:51,836 Speaker 1: We were like, we were crazy to think it six months. 132 00:06:51,836 --> 00:06:54,076 Speaker 1: It's probably like a year. And then it's nine months. 133 00:06:54,116 --> 00:06:56,156 Speaker 1: We're like okay, and many mum, a year and a half. 134 00:06:56,196 --> 00:06:58,716 Speaker 1: And they kept going, and I remember when it passed 135 00:06:58,716 --> 00:07:01,556 Speaker 1: through the two year mark, we were like, what are 136 00:07:01,596 --> 00:07:04,436 Speaker 1: we doing? Like we just you know, graduated from my team. 137 00:07:04,476 --> 00:07:06,596 Speaker 1: We should like be making some money, have a job, 138 00:07:06,636 --> 00:07:09,276 Speaker 1: and we're just here, like, you know, fighting through this 139 00:07:09,356 --> 00:07:12,516 Speaker 1: thing and like nothing launched, no contract traded, nothing. If 140 00:07:12,556 --> 00:07:14,236 Speaker 1: I told you from the beginning, we knew what was 141 00:07:14,276 --> 00:07:16,076 Speaker 1: going to happen, and we knew it was gonna work, 142 00:07:16,116 --> 00:07:17,916 Speaker 1: and it would take this amount of time that'll be 143 00:07:17,956 --> 00:07:20,436 Speaker 1: a lot. We knew. We didn't know anything, honestly. So 144 00:07:20,596 --> 00:07:22,436 Speaker 1: is part of the case you have to make to 145 00:07:22,476 --> 00:07:26,356 Speaker 1: the CFTC why your exchange is useful and not just 146 00:07:26,436 --> 00:07:29,676 Speaker 1: a casino? Yeah, so what is that case? Simply, what's 147 00:07:29,676 --> 00:07:33,836 Speaker 1: the simple version of why calcy is useful. Well, there 148 00:07:33,836 --> 00:07:36,756 Speaker 1: are people have a lot of risks that they don't 149 00:07:36,756 --> 00:07:41,596 Speaker 1: have access to hedging for nowadays, Like normal people cannot 150 00:07:41,596 --> 00:07:44,636 Speaker 1: hedge mortgage rates going up or things like gas prices 151 00:07:44,876 --> 00:07:47,036 Speaker 1: or things like taxes going up. And these are real 152 00:07:47,156 --> 00:07:51,316 Speaker 1: risks a normal everyday American face, and it's the job 153 00:07:51,356 --> 00:07:54,116 Speaker 1: of the CFTC to regulate the way for them to 154 00:07:54,356 --> 00:07:56,436 Speaker 1: also get access to this hedging things that the big 155 00:07:56,476 --> 00:08:00,836 Speaker 1: guys can do. I will say, it's not clear to 156 00:08:00,876 --> 00:08:05,756 Speaker 1: me that regular people would on average be able to 157 00:08:05,796 --> 00:08:08,636 Speaker 1: hedge in a useful way using prediction markets. I feel like, 158 00:08:09,396 --> 00:08:13,676 Speaker 1: to me, what seems like a more interesting possible case 159 00:08:13,716 --> 00:08:17,596 Speaker 1: for the utility of Kelshe is sort of a wisdom 160 00:08:17,596 --> 00:08:21,396 Speaker 1: of crowds idea, right, like the idea that people go 161 00:08:21,436 --> 00:08:23,956 Speaker 1: on the news or whatever and say things about the future, 162 00:08:24,116 --> 00:08:26,556 Speaker 1: but like they might be lying, they might be wrong, 163 00:08:26,636 --> 00:08:28,516 Speaker 1: They might be saying something because they have an investment 164 00:08:28,516 --> 00:08:30,676 Speaker 1: they're not telling you about. But when people are betting 165 00:08:30,676 --> 00:08:32,956 Speaker 1: their own money on something that's going to happen in 166 00:08:32,956 --> 00:08:34,916 Speaker 1: the future, I am more inclined to believe them. Right. So, 167 00:08:34,956 --> 00:08:37,636 Speaker 1: if there's a big, well functioning market where lots of 168 00:08:37,636 --> 00:08:39,636 Speaker 1: people are betting lots of money on something that's going 169 00:08:39,636 --> 00:08:43,476 Speaker 1: to happen in the future. That seems like useful information. Absolutely, 170 00:08:43,556 --> 00:08:46,116 Speaker 1: we call this like the tax on bullshit, right, It's yeah, 171 00:08:46,156 --> 00:08:49,076 Speaker 1: it's so cheap to just go on Twitter and look 172 00:08:49,076 --> 00:08:51,956 Speaker 1: at inflation. Right last year everyone is like, oh inflation, 173 00:08:52,036 --> 00:08:54,876 Speaker 1: it's nothing. Oh we're going to see hyperinflation. And if 174 00:08:54,916 --> 00:08:56,716 Speaker 1: you just have a market where people can put money 175 00:08:56,756 --> 00:08:59,396 Speaker 1: where their mouth is and actually be like, I actually 176 00:08:59,396 --> 00:09:01,716 Speaker 1: bought this position, this is what I believe in, you 177 00:09:01,796 --> 00:09:04,156 Speaker 1: really take out a lot of like the bullshit, a 178 00:09:04,156 --> 00:09:07,076 Speaker 1: lot of the you know, just exaggeration for like hype 179 00:09:07,076 --> 00:09:08,876 Speaker 1: and things like that. So let's actually look at it. 180 00:09:09,476 --> 00:09:11,916 Speaker 1: Signed up for Kelsey a couple days ago and I 181 00:09:11,916 --> 00:09:14,276 Speaker 1: put one hundred bucks in my account, and I want 182 00:09:14,316 --> 00:09:16,396 Speaker 1: to I want to make a bet. I'm not supposed 183 00:09:16,396 --> 00:09:17,636 Speaker 1: to call it a bet, right, What am I supposed 184 00:09:17,636 --> 00:09:19,636 Speaker 1: to call it a prediction? To take a position? Yeah, 185 00:09:19,636 --> 00:09:21,996 Speaker 1: I trade the prediction anything. You want to call it 186 00:09:21,996 --> 00:09:23,836 Speaker 1: a tanne. It feels like a bet to me, I'm 187 00:09:23,836 --> 00:09:26,836 Speaker 1: gonna call it a bet. Um. So okay, So I'm 188 00:09:26,876 --> 00:09:30,276 Speaker 1: looking now, So it looks like there's a lot there's 189 00:09:30,276 --> 00:09:32,476 Speaker 1: a lot of econ stuff, like you'd expect what's going 190 00:09:32,556 --> 00:09:36,676 Speaker 1: to happen with fed interest rates? What's gonna happen with inflation? Weather? 191 00:09:36,956 --> 00:09:39,756 Speaker 1: The weather in New York, the weather in Chicago. It's 192 00:09:39,796 --> 00:09:42,996 Speaker 1: like the weather tomorrow, right. Yeah? There are some some 193 00:09:43,156 --> 00:09:45,956 Speaker 1: of our users like a crazy satellite data to trade 194 00:09:45,956 --> 00:09:50,556 Speaker 1: on these markets. Interesting yea? And how big are they? 195 00:09:50,556 --> 00:09:52,516 Speaker 1: I'm seeing numbers here, but it's hard to know exactly 196 00:09:52,516 --> 00:09:55,916 Speaker 1: what they mean. Like how much money are people betting here? Um, 197 00:09:55,956 --> 00:09:58,596 Speaker 1: I think we're doing around like more than two million 198 00:09:58,716 --> 00:10:01,236 Speaker 1: dollars a week. I think two point five million dollars 199 00:10:01,236 --> 00:10:03,356 Speaker 1: a week. By the way, what's is there a limit 200 00:10:03,396 --> 00:10:08,596 Speaker 1: on how much people can bet or invest or steak? Yeah? 201 00:10:08,676 --> 00:10:11,116 Speaker 1: Right now, we have a twenty five thousand dollars limit 202 00:10:11,156 --> 00:10:13,156 Speaker 1: on how much you can lose, so not in how 203 00:10:13,236 --> 00:10:14,836 Speaker 1: much you can win. So you can win up to 204 00:10:14,916 --> 00:10:17,116 Speaker 1: I guess two point five million if you get the 205 00:10:17,676 --> 00:10:20,516 Speaker 1: one percent long shot, but you can lose up only 206 00:10:20,596 --> 00:10:23,196 Speaker 1: up until twenty five k at the moment. Okay, why 207 00:10:23,196 --> 00:10:26,116 Speaker 1: why that limit? Did that come from the CFTC. No, 208 00:10:26,316 --> 00:10:29,276 Speaker 1: that's actually came from us. We wanted to, you know, 209 00:10:30,156 --> 00:10:32,476 Speaker 1: start slow and make sure we're not breaking things. I 210 00:10:32,476 --> 00:10:34,316 Speaker 1: think we worked very hard on the regulatory piece, so 211 00:10:34,356 --> 00:10:36,516 Speaker 1: we want to make sure we keep everything going the 212 00:10:36,596 --> 00:10:39,956 Speaker 1: right way, slow and don't break Facebook zactly. We are. 213 00:10:40,276 --> 00:10:43,356 Speaker 1: We are the anti Facebook for sure. So we started 214 00:10:43,396 --> 00:10:45,796 Speaker 1: this way. I think that we are going to have 215 00:10:45,836 --> 00:10:48,556 Speaker 1: to raise the limits going forward, especially as we grow 216 00:10:48,716 --> 00:10:51,476 Speaker 1: to bigger players and bigger institutions. We're here, so let's 217 00:10:51,516 --> 00:10:55,636 Speaker 1: pick one. Um, So here's one permanent daylight saving time 218 00:10:55,636 --> 00:10:59,596 Speaker 1: bill becomes law. Yep uh. It's a fun one, like 219 00:10:59,956 --> 00:11:02,076 Speaker 1: I kind of care about it. It's a little bit silly, 220 00:11:02,236 --> 00:11:03,716 Speaker 1: like I want to I want to bet on that one. 221 00:11:03,716 --> 00:11:04,956 Speaker 1: I want to take a position on that one. Okay, 222 00:11:04,956 --> 00:11:06,556 Speaker 1: So I'm going to click on it, and it says 223 00:11:07,556 --> 00:11:11,476 Speaker 1: and it's by the end of the year. Basically, it 224 00:11:11,596 --> 00:11:17,116 Speaker 1: says buy yes sixteen cents, buy no eighty seven cents. 225 00:11:17,476 --> 00:11:20,396 Speaker 1: So what does that mean? That means right now you 226 00:11:20,436 --> 00:11:23,356 Speaker 1: can buy a yes position for you said sixteen cents, Yeah, 227 00:11:23,396 --> 00:11:26,156 Speaker 1: sixteen cents, So you would walk in sixty cents to 228 00:11:26,196 --> 00:11:28,516 Speaker 1: be able to get eighty four. So if you're if 229 00:11:28,516 --> 00:11:31,276 Speaker 1: you buy a yes, you're you're locking in sixteen to 230 00:11:31,356 --> 00:11:34,116 Speaker 1: get eighty four. If you're right. Okay, great. So so 231 00:11:34,196 --> 00:11:37,276 Speaker 1: it's like, uh, what is that five to one or so? 232 00:11:37,476 --> 00:11:39,796 Speaker 1: I think so around that yeah, math on a math 233 00:11:39,796 --> 00:11:44,596 Speaker 1: on a podcast, and so just I mean the context 234 00:11:44,636 --> 00:11:46,956 Speaker 1: on this one. The Senate passed a bill earlier this 235 00:11:47,036 --> 00:11:49,076 Speaker 1: year that would make daylight saving time permanent, and now 236 00:11:49,076 --> 00:11:51,116 Speaker 1: it's kind of stalled out, and so the market is 237 00:11:51,116 --> 00:11:53,516 Speaker 1: clearly saying this is probably not going to happen. Yep. 238 00:11:54,036 --> 00:11:55,836 Speaker 1: But it's not like it's not one hundred to one 239 00:11:55,876 --> 00:11:58,636 Speaker 1: shot that it won't happen. It could happen, right, And 240 00:11:59,076 --> 00:12:00,996 Speaker 1: I mean I want kind of a long shot, right, 241 00:12:00,996 --> 00:12:03,236 Speaker 1: I don't want to win ten bucks? Who cares? Right? 242 00:12:03,596 --> 00:12:05,676 Speaker 1: And the fact that it says buy yes or sixteen, 243 00:12:05,716 --> 00:12:07,676 Speaker 1: does that mean someone is offering to sell it for 244 00:12:07,756 --> 00:12:11,076 Speaker 1: that price some other market participant. Yeah, someone's willing to 245 00:12:11,076 --> 00:12:13,356 Speaker 1: buy the note for eighty four. Okay, so that's why 246 00:12:13,356 --> 00:12:15,476 Speaker 1: you can buy the yes for sixteen. And it's Calci 247 00:12:16,116 --> 00:12:19,236 Speaker 1: in the middle on this. Are you just taking a fee? No, 248 00:12:19,516 --> 00:12:21,836 Speaker 1: we are in exchange, so we just match people on 249 00:12:22,196 --> 00:12:23,916 Speaker 1: both sides. So we just matched the yes in the No. 250 00:12:24,476 --> 00:12:25,996 Speaker 1: Let me take a small fee. So okay, so I'm 251 00:12:25,996 --> 00:12:27,836 Speaker 1: gonna beat one hundred bucks right now, I'm just gonna 252 00:12:27,876 --> 00:12:30,036 Speaker 1: do it. I'm gonna wild own. This is big for me. 253 00:12:30,076 --> 00:12:32,236 Speaker 1: I'm not much of a much of a gambler trading 254 00:12:32,236 --> 00:12:34,596 Speaker 1: for contract amount, okay. So I just type one hundred 255 00:12:34,596 --> 00:12:38,036 Speaker 1: bucks one hundred okay, So for my hundred bucks, if 256 00:12:38,036 --> 00:12:41,316 Speaker 1: I'm right, I'm gonna win four hundred and fifty five dollars. So, 257 00:12:42,556 --> 00:12:44,756 Speaker 1: so it says fees five dollars and fifty one cents. 258 00:12:44,796 --> 00:12:47,876 Speaker 1: It's about five percent, is what you're taking on this trade? Yes? Yeah, 259 00:12:47,876 --> 00:12:49,876 Speaker 1: that's why we take a calci. Okay, and what are 260 00:12:49,916 --> 00:12:53,636 Speaker 1: your fees? Just on average on average reaction at point 261 00:12:53,636 --> 00:12:57,516 Speaker 1: eight percent? Wow? So I got hose. Yeah, because you 262 00:12:57,596 --> 00:13:01,236 Speaker 1: were taking a position you actually paid. So so when 263 00:13:01,236 --> 00:13:02,996 Speaker 1: I sell, when I get out, I don't have to pay. 264 00:13:03,036 --> 00:13:05,316 Speaker 1: You won't pay anything. Okay, Well that's right. So it 265 00:13:05,676 --> 00:13:07,716 Speaker 1: takes the sting off a little. Right If if you're 266 00:13:07,756 --> 00:13:09,836 Speaker 1: building limit orders, if you say adding up price or 267 00:13:09,836 --> 00:13:11,396 Speaker 1: saying I want to buy or I want to sell 268 00:13:11,436 --> 00:13:13,996 Speaker 1: out this price, you pay no fee. So oh interesting, Okay, 269 00:13:13,996 --> 00:13:17,236 Speaker 1: because I'm bringing liquidity to the market, okay, Okay, I'm 270 00:13:17,236 --> 00:13:21,036 Speaker 1: submitting the order. Okay, So now I own it. Yeah, 271 00:13:21,036 --> 00:13:24,876 Speaker 1: that's it. Now. The thing that's interesting to me is 272 00:13:25,076 --> 00:13:27,836 Speaker 1: I don't have to wait and see if this thing happens, right, 273 00:13:27,876 --> 00:13:32,316 Speaker 1: I can sell to somebody else who wants to take 274 00:13:32,356 --> 00:13:35,196 Speaker 1: a position. Absolutely. So if you go to if you 275 00:13:35,316 --> 00:13:37,836 Speaker 1: click sell on the screen and you go to a 276 00:13:37,876 --> 00:13:41,396 Speaker 1: limit order, okay, so I'm gonna sell for forty cents 277 00:13:41,396 --> 00:13:44,236 Speaker 1: and I'll get paid back two hundred and twenty two 278 00:13:44,236 --> 00:13:47,716 Speaker 1: dollars if it happens. Yeah. So like maybe I feel 279 00:13:47,716 --> 00:13:52,196 Speaker 1: like for that if some powerful person in Congress just says, yeah, 280 00:13:52,316 --> 00:13:54,476 Speaker 1: maybe we're gonna do this right, it's in the news. 281 00:13:54,916 --> 00:13:57,476 Speaker 1: If there's one little blip, maybe the market will move 282 00:13:57,516 --> 00:13:59,716 Speaker 1: my way and then you just sell automatically. You just 283 00:13:59,836 --> 00:14:02,916 Speaker 1: made two hundred dollars yea, and that can made one 284 00:14:02,996 --> 00:14:06,156 Speaker 1: hundred bucks one hundred year, and that can happen any 285 00:14:06,156 --> 00:14:07,876 Speaker 1: time between now and the end of the year. Yep. 286 00:14:08,076 --> 00:14:10,596 Speaker 1: So like I got some action now, yeah right, And 287 00:14:10,676 --> 00:14:12,996 Speaker 1: I do feel like, I mean, you know, people have 288 00:14:13,036 --> 00:14:16,596 Speaker 1: different feelings about gambling, but like I'm definitely gambling here 289 00:14:16,676 --> 00:14:18,276 Speaker 1: and it's okay, right, Like I'm a grown up. I 290 00:14:18,316 --> 00:14:20,956 Speaker 1: have a hundred bucks. Yeah, no, it's I mean, any 291 00:14:21,036 --> 00:14:24,876 Speaker 1: futures market has speculators and has headers, right, Like obviously, 292 00:14:24,916 --> 00:14:27,116 Speaker 1: even if you look at the grain market, like the 293 00:14:27,356 --> 00:14:29,796 Speaker 1: big firms on Wall Street that has the entire desk 294 00:14:29,876 --> 00:14:33,236 Speaker 1: dedicated to shading grain, they are not hedging, like they're 295 00:14:33,236 --> 00:14:36,156 Speaker 1: not worried about their farm production, and they are also speculating, 296 00:14:36,156 --> 00:14:38,836 Speaker 1: but they're speculating it with a lot of data and research. 297 00:14:39,316 --> 00:14:42,156 Speaker 1: It's just degrees of speculation. And like price discovery is 298 00:14:42,156 --> 00:14:44,796 Speaker 1: a useful function of markets, right, ABU tells the world 299 00:14:44,956 --> 00:14:47,196 Speaker 1: what people betting a lot of money think is going 300 00:14:47,236 --> 00:14:50,916 Speaker 1: to happen about important things. Absolutely, with inflation, our markets 301 00:14:50,916 --> 00:14:53,596 Speaker 1: predicted inflation will get this high and actually beat the 302 00:14:53,596 --> 00:14:56,556 Speaker 1: Bloomberg forecast six out of the seven past reading is 303 00:14:56,596 --> 00:14:58,876 Speaker 1: just because again, if you put money where your mouth is, 304 00:14:58,996 --> 00:15:02,036 Speaker 1: and if you have an actual market dictating the probability 305 00:15:02,076 --> 00:15:04,636 Speaker 1: of things where it's just you know, people going out 306 00:15:04,676 --> 00:15:06,436 Speaker 1: and saying, oh, I believe this is going to happen, 307 00:15:06,836 --> 00:15:09,476 Speaker 1: you get like way better data and this data, so 308 00:15:09,756 --> 00:15:12,236 Speaker 1: I think it's so important for especially the world are 309 00:15:12,276 --> 00:15:14,996 Speaker 1: in now Okay, well let's talk about inflation. That maybe 310 00:15:15,036 --> 00:15:17,276 Speaker 1: the big one right now, right in terms of the economy, 311 00:15:18,116 --> 00:15:21,436 Speaker 1: what are traders on CALCI predicting about inflation for the 312 00:15:21,516 --> 00:15:24,236 Speaker 1: next oh what for the rest of the year. Say, yeah, 313 00:15:24,316 --> 00:15:27,236 Speaker 1: so this month now June, it's predicted to be around 314 00:15:27,436 --> 00:15:30,676 Speaker 1: one to one point one percent the month over month CBI, 315 00:15:30,756 --> 00:15:34,196 Speaker 1: and for the whole year between eighty nine percent. I 316 00:15:34,196 --> 00:15:36,156 Speaker 1: think the markets do think it is going to start 317 00:15:36,196 --> 00:15:38,756 Speaker 1: going down, but I guess not at the rate that 318 00:15:38,836 --> 00:15:41,716 Speaker 1: everyone wants to. How big is the calcie market for inflation? 319 00:15:41,716 --> 00:15:43,596 Speaker 1: How much money are people betting in that market? It 320 00:15:43,636 --> 00:15:46,716 Speaker 1: goes around like two hundred three hundred a per per month. Okay, 321 00:15:46,756 --> 00:15:49,796 Speaker 1: so small, that's very still small. Yeah, you know, as 322 00:15:49,796 --> 00:15:52,436 Speaker 1: I'm looking over the things you can bet on here, 323 00:15:52,476 --> 00:15:54,556 Speaker 1: I mean I want there's a couple of questions come 324 00:15:54,596 --> 00:15:56,996 Speaker 1: to mind, right, Like one, what are things you're not 325 00:15:57,436 --> 00:15:59,996 Speaker 1: allowed to make markets in or that you don't make 326 00:16:00,036 --> 00:16:04,076 Speaker 1: markets in. There are certain notorious cases, right like war 327 00:16:04,436 --> 00:16:08,276 Speaker 1: or terrorism or assassination, and I assume you wouldn't do that. 328 00:16:08,476 --> 00:16:11,556 Speaker 1: Oh no, not at all. And these actually are explicitly 329 00:16:11,636 --> 00:16:15,236 Speaker 1: You're you're completely right, like more assassination, terrorism, these are 330 00:16:15,236 --> 00:16:18,156 Speaker 1: actually explicitly cut off. And are there people who are 331 00:16:18,236 --> 00:16:23,076 Speaker 1: prohibited from trading like can insiders trade. No, yes, there 332 00:16:23,116 --> 00:16:25,916 Speaker 1: are people who are prohibited from trading. Insiders cannot trade. 333 00:16:26,076 --> 00:16:28,476 Speaker 1: Let me ask you this. Members of Congress sort of 334 00:16:28,556 --> 00:16:31,676 Speaker 1: notoriously are allowed to trade on the stock market, even 335 00:16:31,716 --> 00:16:33,716 Speaker 1: if they have inside information about what Congress is going 336 00:16:33,756 --> 00:16:37,676 Speaker 1: to do. There are on your market. There are things 337 00:16:37,756 --> 00:16:40,116 Speaker 1: is Congress going to pass this law or that, including 338 00:16:40,156 --> 00:16:44,476 Speaker 1: the daylight savings law. Can members of Congress trade on Kelsey? No, 339 00:16:44,556 --> 00:16:47,956 Speaker 1: they cannot. They can trade on markets that are not 340 00:16:48,076 --> 00:16:49,676 Speaker 1: on the ball of this market. So if they want 341 00:16:49,676 --> 00:16:52,916 Speaker 1: to trade on I don't know the weather in New York, 342 00:16:52,916 --> 00:16:55,676 Speaker 1: they can do that. But no, no congress person or 343 00:16:56,516 --> 00:16:58,756 Speaker 1: or their staffers can trade on the Funnily enough, we 344 00:16:58,796 --> 00:17:02,276 Speaker 1: have this market on whether the stock trading band for 345 00:17:02,356 --> 00:17:05,116 Speaker 1: Congress is going to happen this year because it was 346 00:17:05,276 --> 00:17:09,396 Speaker 1: very big news and we opened the market us to 347 00:17:09,396 --> 00:17:13,116 Speaker 1: be clear, members of Congress can still trade stocks, but 348 00:17:13,156 --> 00:17:16,476 Speaker 1: they cannot trade the CALCI contract on whether they are 349 00:17:16,476 --> 00:17:19,916 Speaker 1: going to ban themselves from trading stocks. I'm pretty sure 350 00:17:19,956 --> 00:17:22,436 Speaker 1: that's a metaphor for something, but I don't know what 351 00:17:22,556 --> 00:17:26,076 Speaker 1: it is. In a minute, the problem CALC has to 352 00:17:26,116 --> 00:17:28,676 Speaker 1: solve to go from being a little site that almost 353 00:17:28,716 --> 00:17:31,356 Speaker 1: nobody has ever heard of to being the New York 354 00:17:31,396 --> 00:17:42,996 Speaker 1: Stock Exchange of event trading. That's the end of the ads. 355 00:17:43,436 --> 00:17:46,396 Speaker 1: Now we're going back to the show. So what do 356 00:17:46,436 --> 00:17:49,516 Speaker 1: you want to do that you're not doing now? I 357 00:17:49,596 --> 00:17:52,636 Speaker 1: think for us that the biggest thing is growing roading. 358 00:17:52,716 --> 00:17:55,356 Speaker 1: What we have our vision is to be like the 359 00:17:55,396 --> 00:17:57,396 Speaker 1: New York Stock Exchange for events. And we really think 360 00:17:57,436 --> 00:18:00,196 Speaker 1: that events have the capacity to grow and be like 361 00:18:00,236 --> 00:18:04,436 Speaker 1: a mainstream and you know, boring commonplace asset class. And 362 00:18:04,516 --> 00:18:06,476 Speaker 1: our dream is to get there and really like be 363 00:18:06,756 --> 00:18:09,636 Speaker 1: the exchange and help you the environment around it. So 364 00:18:09,716 --> 00:18:12,796 Speaker 1: for us, it's always about innovating and releasing new contracts 365 00:18:12,836 --> 00:18:15,556 Speaker 1: that are very relevant and then hopefully growing the pipe. 366 00:18:15,556 --> 00:18:18,476 Speaker 1: But we want to integrate with for example, biggest other 367 00:18:18,516 --> 00:18:21,636 Speaker 1: parts of all streets are getting brokers to offer our markets, 368 00:18:21,676 --> 00:18:24,796 Speaker 1: getting marketmakers to come and provide liquidity. So our goes 369 00:18:24,796 --> 00:18:28,396 Speaker 1: to really like buel this exchange up with more contracts 370 00:18:28,396 --> 00:18:31,236 Speaker 1: and more more liquidity, more people and I mean your 371 00:18:31,876 --> 00:18:34,396 Speaker 1: customers now our retail. Right, they're just people like me, 372 00:18:34,516 --> 00:18:37,556 Speaker 1: just like ordinary people, which I would not have guessed. Right, 373 00:18:37,636 --> 00:18:41,516 Speaker 1: there's another universe where what you start with is institutions, right, 374 00:18:41,556 --> 00:18:45,316 Speaker 1: big companies working through investment banks betting not one hundred 375 00:18:45,316 --> 00:18:47,356 Speaker 1: bucks but you know, one hundred thousand bucks or a 376 00:18:47,356 --> 00:18:49,516 Speaker 1: million dollars right like that in a way seems like 377 00:18:49,556 --> 00:18:52,276 Speaker 1: a more I don't know logical place to start. Yeah, 378 00:18:52,316 --> 00:18:55,836 Speaker 1: our goal is to have these guys and institutions also 379 00:18:55,876 --> 00:18:58,556 Speaker 1: come to Kaushi. I think our strategy was pretty much 380 00:18:58,596 --> 00:19:01,036 Speaker 1: like on the liquidity building. We thought it was easier 381 00:19:01,036 --> 00:19:04,556 Speaker 1: to start with retail and then built some base of 382 00:19:04,596 --> 00:19:09,236 Speaker 1: retail users, then bring in specific marketmakers who provide liquidity, 383 00:19:09,396 --> 00:19:11,516 Speaker 1: and then with the market makers who bring brokers. That 384 00:19:11,556 --> 00:19:13,996 Speaker 1: will increase a number of users and then more liquidity. 385 00:19:14,356 --> 00:19:16,836 Speaker 1: The issue with starting in exchange with very big players 386 00:19:17,516 --> 00:19:20,076 Speaker 1: is that the level of liquidity you need is very 387 00:19:21,316 --> 00:19:23,396 Speaker 1: For somebody to take a big position, you need a 388 00:19:23,396 --> 00:19:26,956 Speaker 1: ton of money on the other side, and with a 389 00:19:27,036 --> 00:19:30,476 Speaker 1: very new asset class like hours, it's very hard to 390 00:19:30,516 --> 00:19:32,116 Speaker 1: find the person to be on the other side. We 391 00:19:32,196 --> 00:19:34,796 Speaker 1: thought it would be a better strategy to kind of 392 00:19:34,836 --> 00:19:38,716 Speaker 1: like do beauting up versus like trying to to start 393 00:19:38,756 --> 00:19:40,316 Speaker 1: from from that side, because then we would need like 394 00:19:40,556 --> 00:19:42,876 Speaker 1: hundreds of millions of dollars on the other side. Very 395 00:19:42,876 --> 00:19:45,236 Speaker 1: complicated to to start from there. For us, now, it's 396 00:19:45,236 --> 00:19:48,876 Speaker 1: really about bauting liquidity, right. It's it's about having what 397 00:19:48,996 --> 00:19:51,916 Speaker 1: we have that's working and making this a massive scale. 398 00:19:51,956 --> 00:19:53,596 Speaker 1: Like you know, when you think about stocks, you're like, 399 00:19:53,636 --> 00:19:57,276 Speaker 1: you can buy almost any amount in any price, yeah, 400 00:19:57,676 --> 00:20:00,836 Speaker 1: tiny spreads. Right, it's really exactly easy and efficient to 401 00:20:00,876 --> 00:20:03,356 Speaker 1: trade stocks, right, And it's for us, the strategy is 402 00:20:03,396 --> 00:20:05,396 Speaker 1: not to just like try We obviously want to get 403 00:20:05,396 --> 00:20:07,236 Speaker 1: a lot more traders on the platform, but it's also 404 00:20:07,276 --> 00:20:10,756 Speaker 1: about having key partnerships with some Wall Street firms, having 405 00:20:10,756 --> 00:20:13,596 Speaker 1: partnerships with specific brokers that have traders that do this 406 00:20:13,756 --> 00:20:18,036 Speaker 1: themselves and bring them in and start having these kind 407 00:20:18,036 --> 00:20:21,156 Speaker 1: of like we'll call like step functions in terms of liquidity. 408 00:20:21,196 --> 00:20:23,756 Speaker 1: I think for us, our next challenge is like, Okay, 409 00:20:23,916 --> 00:20:26,036 Speaker 1: you guys were able to get this through the regulation, 410 00:20:26,236 --> 00:20:28,596 Speaker 1: you're able to start playing the game. But for us 411 00:20:28,596 --> 00:20:30,156 Speaker 1: to start winning the game, we need to start building 412 00:20:30,156 --> 00:20:33,036 Speaker 1: liquidity and getting more traders. And it's it's really about 413 00:20:33,036 --> 00:20:34,716 Speaker 1: that for us, it's what we're focused on. And so 414 00:20:34,716 --> 00:20:37,676 Speaker 1: it's that move like getting Calcy onto the robin Hood 415 00:20:37,676 --> 00:20:39,716 Speaker 1: app or like the Schwab app is it on the 416 00:20:39,756 --> 00:20:42,836 Speaker 1: retail side or like is it getting traders at some 417 00:20:42,956 --> 00:20:44,876 Speaker 1: firm to trade on Kelcy, Like what is the next 418 00:20:44,916 --> 00:20:48,796 Speaker 1: step two sides there. I think on the market making side, 419 00:20:48,836 --> 00:20:51,596 Speaker 1: we want to integrate and have like the big Wall 420 00:20:51,596 --> 00:20:56,916 Speaker 1: Street companies who can think about that, the generally provide 421 00:20:56,196 --> 00:21:00,036 Speaker 1: Citadel maybe like Citadel, Jump Trading, Optiver, all of these 422 00:21:00,556 --> 00:21:03,236 Speaker 1: big high frequency traders who essentially make the market on 423 00:21:03,236 --> 00:21:05,276 Speaker 1: the stock market right And for them, it's what's interesting 424 00:21:05,316 --> 00:21:07,436 Speaker 1: at cal She's that obviously is very uncorelated to everything 425 00:21:07,436 --> 00:21:09,636 Speaker 1: else they do. But also because the spreads higher, they 426 00:21:09,716 --> 00:21:11,876 Speaker 1: make more money for them than what they think about 427 00:21:12,116 --> 00:21:14,796 Speaker 1: is the problem that it's too small for them. Well, 428 00:21:14,836 --> 00:21:17,236 Speaker 1: that's what we're working for you. I think that. So 429 00:21:17,596 --> 00:21:19,316 Speaker 1: most of the month's work out ship we were very 430 00:21:19,436 --> 00:21:21,316 Speaker 1: much focused on learning and getting the product to a 431 00:21:21,396 --> 00:21:24,596 Speaker 1: right point. Now we're really starting to focus on growing 432 00:21:24,636 --> 00:21:28,036 Speaker 1: the use case and the user base. Sorry. And this 433 00:21:28,196 --> 00:21:30,876 Speaker 1: fits with the other part, which is actually integrating with brokers. 434 00:21:31,196 --> 00:21:35,556 Speaker 1: So like getting the exchange connected to interactive brokers, Schwab, Ninja, 435 00:21:35,596 --> 00:21:38,276 Speaker 1: Trader e Trade. We built all of these guys. It's 436 00:21:38,356 --> 00:21:39,756 Speaker 1: kind of a game of like we need a time 437 00:21:39,796 --> 00:21:41,716 Speaker 1: This very well to be able to get the brokers 438 00:21:41,716 --> 00:21:43,796 Speaker 1: and the market makers out the same time. But the 439 00:21:43,916 --> 00:21:45,916 Speaker 1: idea is to start doing that, getting at least like 440 00:21:45,956 --> 00:21:48,076 Speaker 1: one broker, one market maker, then more then it's like 441 00:21:48,116 --> 00:21:52,196 Speaker 1: a real big thing. That's the goal. And so that 442 00:21:52,356 --> 00:21:54,596 Speaker 1: is interesting, right because that's not like, oh, we just 443 00:21:54,636 --> 00:21:56,636 Speaker 1: need to grow five or ten percent, right, It's like 444 00:21:56,836 --> 00:21:59,236 Speaker 1: what you have now is almost it's like proof of concept. 445 00:21:59,236 --> 00:22:01,396 Speaker 1: It's like, hey, here's the thing that works. But it's 446 00:22:01,516 --> 00:22:04,516 Speaker 1: not real money. I mean, if if you're thinking about 447 00:22:04,516 --> 00:22:07,596 Speaker 1: like the real finance amount of money, it's not yet. 448 00:22:07,996 --> 00:22:09,676 Speaker 1: And our goal now is to is to get it 449 00:22:09,716 --> 00:22:11,756 Speaker 1: to be there. We were one hundred percent focused on 450 00:22:11,756 --> 00:22:14,756 Speaker 1: on this and is something about to happen? Is there 451 00:22:14,796 --> 00:22:17,636 Speaker 1: something in the works? There's some partnerships that can comment on, 452 00:22:17,756 --> 00:22:20,436 Speaker 1: but there's there's some cool things coming along. How like 453 00:22:20,636 --> 00:22:23,436 Speaker 1: by the end of the year for what do you 454 00:22:23,436 --> 00:22:26,036 Speaker 1: mean the partners Yeah, yeah, I think our goal is 455 00:22:26,036 --> 00:22:28,116 Speaker 1: to buy the end of the year have let's say 456 00:22:28,116 --> 00:22:29,836 Speaker 1: at least the one worker and at least one market 457 00:22:29,836 --> 00:22:31,556 Speaker 1: maker on the platform. That that's our goal. Like that 458 00:22:31,556 --> 00:22:34,036 Speaker 1: would be a big jump, right, yeah, it would be 459 00:22:33,996 --> 00:22:36,236 Speaker 1: because it would be like a year and a couple 460 00:22:36,196 --> 00:22:38,436 Speaker 1: of months after launch, and I think it would really 461 00:22:38,716 --> 00:22:40,516 Speaker 1: be able to take the business to the next step. 462 00:22:40,596 --> 00:22:43,556 Speaker 1: Why did nobody do this before? Why did no exchange 463 00:22:43,596 --> 00:22:46,956 Speaker 1: do this? The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is this giant exchange 464 00:22:46,996 --> 00:22:49,036 Speaker 1: that has markets and things that are kind of like 465 00:22:49,116 --> 00:22:50,956 Speaker 1: what you have markets in some of them are even 466 00:22:50,996 --> 00:22:53,556 Speaker 1: the same, right the oil price. Why didn't they do 467 00:22:53,596 --> 00:22:56,836 Speaker 1: this or why didn't some other giant well funded, uh, 468 00:22:57,276 --> 00:23:00,396 Speaker 1: you know exchange do what you're doing. I just don't 469 00:23:00,396 --> 00:23:03,796 Speaker 1: think they're very like innovative in some way. No, no, 470 00:23:03,996 --> 00:23:05,836 Speaker 1: not trying to criticize, but if you ask me if 471 00:23:05,836 --> 00:23:07,836 Speaker 1: they're going to come in, I'm sure. I'm sure we're 472 00:23:07,836 --> 00:23:10,116 Speaker 1: going to get a lot of competition. I think there's 473 00:23:10,116 --> 00:23:11,556 Speaker 1: a lot of eyes into the space. And I think 474 00:23:11,556 --> 00:23:13,996 Speaker 1: that's actually very good for us because for Coushi to 475 00:23:14,036 --> 00:23:16,076 Speaker 1: be very successful, we need a vent contract to be 476 00:23:16,156 --> 00:23:18,156 Speaker 1: very successful for us. So we've more players, and we 477 00:23:18,236 --> 00:23:21,036 Speaker 1: believe the industry can grow and we think we can 478 00:23:21,076 --> 00:23:23,916 Speaker 1: win if it's if it's had to have a regulated 479 00:23:23,996 --> 00:23:26,716 Speaker 1: company like CME, but but it's always good to grow 480 00:23:26,756 --> 00:23:29,996 Speaker 1: the pie. There have been small election prediction markets for 481 00:23:29,996 --> 00:23:32,236 Speaker 1: a long time, but not that much money is allowed 482 00:23:32,276 --> 00:23:34,996 Speaker 1: to be traded on those people have been so interested 483 00:23:35,036 --> 00:23:37,196 Speaker 1: for so long, but it has never really been a 484 00:23:37,236 --> 00:23:40,556 Speaker 1: thing until now. And I still don't think I understand why, 485 00:23:40,676 --> 00:23:43,676 Speaker 1: Like why didn't anybody do it before? Nobody has done 486 00:23:43,676 --> 00:23:47,156 Speaker 1: it until now, or nobody has been nobody's gotten regulatory approval. Right, 487 00:23:47,156 --> 00:23:52,076 Speaker 1: there's like unregulated crypto prediction markets. Why didn't anybody do 488 00:23:52,116 --> 00:23:54,836 Speaker 1: this until you did it? Yeah, I think, I mean 489 00:23:54,836 --> 00:23:58,116 Speaker 1: the regulatory piece is the biggest one. Most of the cases, 490 00:23:58,116 --> 00:24:01,236 Speaker 1: what actually happened is they tried to launch it, and 491 00:24:01,236 --> 00:24:03,396 Speaker 1: then when the CFC went to say what you're doing 492 00:24:03,476 --> 00:24:06,196 Speaker 1: is illegal, it was it's too late, like there's no 493 00:24:06,316 --> 00:24:08,796 Speaker 1: like you know, moving fast, and then saying like I'm sorry, 494 00:24:09,156 --> 00:24:11,156 Speaker 1: I didn't know, Like this is not how it works 495 00:24:11,156 --> 00:24:14,996 Speaker 1: with financial regulation. So most of the cases were actually 496 00:24:14,996 --> 00:24:17,116 Speaker 1: people doing it illegally and then the CFC saying you 497 00:24:17,156 --> 00:24:19,676 Speaker 1: shut down right now, and they're like okay, And obviously 498 00:24:19,676 --> 00:24:22,156 Speaker 1: if they've done something illegally before, it's very hard to 499 00:24:22,196 --> 00:24:24,996 Speaker 1: sell to the CFTC that you actually care about compliance. Yeah, 500 00:24:24,996 --> 00:24:27,236 Speaker 1: but there's obviously a lot of other timing things right 501 00:24:27,276 --> 00:24:29,556 Speaker 1: that helped us. I think the rise, as you mentioned 502 00:24:29,676 --> 00:24:33,836 Speaker 1: of unregulated crypto prediction markets, it's it's very hard for 503 00:24:33,876 --> 00:24:35,716 Speaker 1: the CFTC. It's a game of alcamole if you're just 504 00:24:35,756 --> 00:24:38,916 Speaker 1: waiting for the next crypto thing to show up, and like, 505 00:24:38,956 --> 00:24:40,836 Speaker 1: how are you going to work on enforcement? In all 506 00:24:40,836 --> 00:24:42,916 Speaker 1: those cases, I think it's important for them to have 507 00:24:43,436 --> 00:24:47,436 Speaker 1: a regulated alternative. That's say interesting. So the fact that 508 00:24:47,516 --> 00:24:51,636 Speaker 1: crypto allowed more unregulated prediction markets to crop up gave 509 00:24:51,676 --> 00:24:54,396 Speaker 1: the CFTC and incentive to say yes to somebody who 510 00:24:54,436 --> 00:24:56,876 Speaker 1: wanted to play by the rules. Right, I don't actually 511 00:24:56,916 --> 00:24:59,476 Speaker 1: know if they thought about that. That's something I think happened. 512 00:24:59,476 --> 00:25:01,556 Speaker 1: So just to be clear, they never said anything like that. 513 00:25:01,596 --> 00:25:04,036 Speaker 1: It's it's what I think about it, because obviously something 514 00:25:04,236 --> 00:25:07,716 Speaker 1: I asked myself, well, like why why us Luana and 515 00:25:07,756 --> 00:25:10,476 Speaker 1: her co founder did the work. They did it at 516 00:25:10,476 --> 00:25:13,236 Speaker 1: the right time, and they kept doing it until the 517 00:25:13,316 --> 00:25:16,236 Speaker 1: CFTC said yes. Now they just have to solve that 518 00:25:16,316 --> 00:25:19,516 Speaker 1: hard problem of getting lots more customers by partnering with 519 00:25:19,556 --> 00:25:22,836 Speaker 1: retail brokerages. At the same time they're getting lots more 520 00:25:22,876 --> 00:25:26,676 Speaker 1: liquidity by partnering with marketmakers. If they can do that, 521 00:25:27,036 --> 00:25:29,596 Speaker 1: they can go from being this weird little website where 522 00:25:29,596 --> 00:25:32,036 Speaker 1: you can bet on the weather to being a giant 523 00:25:32,236 --> 00:25:35,956 Speaker 1: financial exchange. We'll be back in a minute with the 524 00:25:36,036 --> 00:25:45,236 Speaker 1: lightning round. Now, let's get back to the show. Okay, 525 00:25:45,396 --> 00:25:47,436 Speaker 1: let's do the lightning round. Let's do some fast questions. 526 00:25:47,676 --> 00:25:51,716 Speaker 1: I'm good. What's the biggest bet you ever made? Oh? 527 00:25:51,796 --> 00:25:53,476 Speaker 1: I've made a big bet on the election with my 528 00:25:53,516 --> 00:25:58,076 Speaker 1: best friend. How'd you do? I won? I bet? Aga? 529 00:25:58,516 --> 00:26:02,996 Speaker 1: How big? That's big? It's a big bet. I know, 530 00:26:03,116 --> 00:26:05,036 Speaker 1: I know, I am. I have a lot of the 531 00:26:05,156 --> 00:26:09,036 Speaker 1: trader nature in me. You like you like gambling and 532 00:26:09,196 --> 00:26:13,276 Speaker 1: general No, no, really, this is actually no, this is 533 00:26:13,276 --> 00:26:16,036 Speaker 1: actually my only I'm very bashion about politics in general. 534 00:26:16,356 --> 00:26:19,156 Speaker 1: So this was like kind of my first and only think. 535 00:26:19,516 --> 00:26:22,196 Speaker 1: Never did any like sports batting, for sure not. I'm 536 00:26:22,196 --> 00:26:25,356 Speaker 1: like a very actually traditional investor. So you were you 537 00:26:25,396 --> 00:26:28,716 Speaker 1: were a ballet dancer yep, earlier in your life. So 538 00:26:28,956 --> 00:26:34,036 Speaker 1: what's harder running a company or dancing the Nutcracker? Oh? 539 00:26:34,036 --> 00:26:36,276 Speaker 1: The Nutcracker is easier, So I would say the running 540 00:26:36,396 --> 00:26:40,716 Speaker 1: running I picked the wrong ballet. Yeah, that's iving sw 541 00:26:40,716 --> 00:26:44,716 Speaker 1: on lakes harder. It's just it's it's yeah, but it's 542 00:26:43,916 --> 00:26:48,636 Speaker 1: swan Lake versus running a company swan Lake harder. I 543 00:26:48,756 --> 00:26:53,516 Speaker 1: think so because the level of like physical uh demand 544 00:26:53,676 --> 00:26:56,276 Speaker 1: that you have with ballet is like it changes our 545 00:26:56,396 --> 00:26:58,356 Speaker 1: entire life. Like nowadays, if I want to still, like 546 00:26:58,396 --> 00:27:00,716 Speaker 1: I don't know, take Saturday night off and go to dinner, 547 00:27:00,756 --> 00:27:02,636 Speaker 1: I can still do that with ballet. It's like it's 548 00:27:02,636 --> 00:27:06,396 Speaker 1: about everything. If everything goes well, what problem will you 549 00:27:06,436 --> 00:27:09,436 Speaker 1: be trying to solve in five years? If everything goes 550 00:27:09,436 --> 00:27:13,556 Speaker 1: well in five years, I think at that point we 551 00:27:13,596 --> 00:27:17,196 Speaker 1: would be focused more on like international expansion. And at 552 00:27:17,236 --> 00:27:19,596 Speaker 1: that point, I think we would really be on boarding 553 00:27:19,636 --> 00:27:21,956 Speaker 1: what we really called like natural hedgers. So if you 554 00:27:21,996 --> 00:27:27,196 Speaker 1: think about like I don't know, on Heiserbusch coming to hedge, 555 00:27:27,236 --> 00:27:30,796 Speaker 1: a change on beer legislation and putting like hundreds of 556 00:27:30,836 --> 00:27:33,596 Speaker 1: millions of dollars in one position, I think that's why 557 00:27:33,596 --> 00:27:35,676 Speaker 1: we would be focused on if everything goes we all 558 00:27:35,676 --> 00:27:38,436 Speaker 1: liquidity wise, I think five years is very ambitious to 559 00:27:38,476 --> 00:27:41,356 Speaker 1: be doing that, more likely ten. But we're getting these 560 00:27:41,396 --> 00:27:44,476 Speaker 1: like massive natural hedgers to come to the platform. That's 561 00:27:44,516 --> 00:27:46,076 Speaker 1: like the end game. How will you know when it's 562 00:27:46,076 --> 00:27:48,436 Speaker 1: time to do something else? You know what? I ask 563 00:27:48,516 --> 00:27:52,956 Speaker 1: myself this question multiple times. I actually have no idea. 564 00:27:53,156 --> 00:27:55,396 Speaker 1: I actually have no idea. I think it's probably when 565 00:27:55,436 --> 00:27:58,356 Speaker 1: we run out of all of our money and all 566 00:27:58,396 --> 00:28:01,356 Speaker 1: of our employees leave, and then probably I don't know, 567 00:28:01,436 --> 00:28:02,956 Speaker 1: my family or my friends would be like, come on, 568 00:28:02,996 --> 00:28:05,076 Speaker 1: I think it's time to try to do something else 569 00:28:05,356 --> 00:28:07,876 Speaker 1: or move on. But I don't really see that happening 570 00:28:08,676 --> 00:28:11,916 Speaker 1: unless it is kind of like a discomplete catastrophe or something. 571 00:28:12,036 --> 00:28:14,276 Speaker 1: I mean, that's the sad ending. There's a happy ending 572 00:28:14,276 --> 00:28:17,556 Speaker 1: where the company is doing great, right, But you don't 573 00:28:17,596 --> 00:28:20,236 Speaker 1: think of that one. Oh yeah, no, I don't think 574 00:28:20,236 --> 00:28:22,676 Speaker 1: of I mean, you know, for every startup, it's very 575 00:28:22,676 --> 00:28:24,596 Speaker 1: likely that you're going to fail. Like in the beginning, 576 00:28:24,596 --> 00:28:29,196 Speaker 1: it was like like now it's probably a little less 577 00:28:29,196 --> 00:28:31,436 Speaker 1: than that, but it's uh, it's still very likely that 578 00:28:31,516 --> 00:28:33,436 Speaker 1: will fail. And if you if you start thinking about that, 579 00:28:33,476 --> 00:28:36,516 Speaker 1: there's no reason to take risk and start a company 580 00:28:36,516 --> 00:28:39,076 Speaker 1: and try to actually do something different than make a change. 581 00:28:39,116 --> 00:28:42,036 Speaker 1: So I try to focus exclusively on the happy hay 582 00:28:42,076 --> 00:28:44,956 Speaker 1: scenario and the good things and and keep pushing and 583 00:28:44,996 --> 00:28:46,996 Speaker 1: see how, see how it's gonna go. Maybe I am wrong, 584 00:28:47,396 --> 00:28:50,116 Speaker 1: I know, in the future, but yeah, when do you 585 00:28:50,156 --> 00:28:54,596 Speaker 1: think another company will get CFTC approval to let people 586 00:28:54,596 --> 00:28:58,516 Speaker 1: trade events. I think the window could start by like 587 00:28:58,996 --> 00:29:02,316 Speaker 1: end of this year, beginning of next year, well soon, 588 00:29:02,876 --> 00:29:06,196 Speaker 1: I think they couldn't like start like getting more serious. 589 00:29:06,716 --> 00:29:08,316 Speaker 1: Let's make a market in this one though, Let's have 590 00:29:08,396 --> 00:29:11,556 Speaker 1: it day right, there's a day, Okay, you could have 591 00:29:11,596 --> 00:29:13,836 Speaker 1: a market on cal you could head, Oh, you're not 592 00:29:13,916 --> 00:29:16,116 Speaker 1: allowed to bet, We're not. We're not. I would say. 593 00:29:16,276 --> 00:29:19,396 Speaker 1: I think there's like, um, thirty percentons that by the 594 00:29:19,396 --> 00:29:21,476 Speaker 1: middle of next year, we're gonna see someone else like 595 00:29:21,516 --> 00:29:25,036 Speaker 1: fully focused on events. I think that by the middle 596 00:29:25,076 --> 00:29:27,836 Speaker 1: of next year, someone will get a yes from the CFTC. 597 00:29:28,636 --> 00:29:31,196 Speaker 1: Trying to think which side of that. It's a subtle 598 00:29:31,196 --> 00:29:33,756 Speaker 1: it's you set the line just right. Also, you have 599 00:29:33,836 --> 00:29:43,636 Speaker 1: more information than I do, so i'd be afther. Luana 600 00:29:43,716 --> 00:29:47,996 Speaker 1: Lopez Lara is the co founder of calshi dot Com. 601 00:29:48,116 --> 00:29:51,956 Speaker 1: Today's show was produced by Edith Russolo, engineered by Amanda Kwong, 602 00:29:52,116 --> 00:29:55,436 Speaker 1: and edited by Robert Smith. I'm Jacob Goldstein. Next week 603 00:29:55,476 --> 00:29:58,316 Speaker 1: on What's Your Problem, we make the case for why 604 00:29:58,436 --> 00:30:02,556 Speaker 1: America must pass a permanent daylight saving time bill before 605 00:30:02,596 --> 00:30:03,236 Speaker 1: the end of the year.