WEBVTT - Finel-Honigman on Brexit: Migrant Crisis Come to a Head (Audio) 0:00:03.960 --> 0:00:08.559 Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C. 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:14.360 Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg Well Underich to San Francisco Bloomberg nine, 0:00:14.880 --> 0:00:19.120 to the countries, US General one and around the globe 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:22.920 the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg got Gone. This is 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:27.760 taking stock. The European Union can trace its origins from 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:31.400 the European Coal and Steel Community that was formed in 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:35.760 nineteen fifty one. So after sixty five years, is the 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:40.800 European Union ready to retire? We'll find out on Thursday 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:44.560 when the UK goes to the polls to determine whether 0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:47.599 it remain part of the European Union. You've got more 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:49.960 details and we're going to find out not only what 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:52.480 it means for the UK phim, but what it means 0:00:52.560 --> 0:00:55.640 for the future of Europe. Now, let's get to Charlie Pellant. 0:00:55.640 --> 0:00:58.600 He's in Bloomberg news room with a Bloomberg Business Flash. 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:00.680 I thank you, Kathleen Hayes, thank you him to dial 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:04.640 the SMP neztack. They are all advancing twenty nine minutes 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:06.800 to go ahead of the close on a Tuesday. Here 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:12.440 stocks advancing sentiments susceptible to swings before Britain's vote later 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:16.280 this week on its European Union membership. Energy producers and 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:19.800 tech companies leading the SMP five hundred index towards back 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:23.720 to back games. Equities climbing after zig zagging most of 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:26.319 the day, bolstered by a third straight game for oil 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:29.640 and gas companies, the longest in two months, even as 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:33.319 crude prices drop. West Texas Intermediate crewed now down one percent, 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:37.880 falling fifty two cents for a barrel well. The UK 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:41.640 Brexit vote is Thursday. Paul de Groi as a professor 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:44.960 at the London School of Economics. He's also a former 0:01:45.160 --> 0:01:48.120 member of the Belgian Parliament, and he spoke about the 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:51.200 vote with Bloomberg Television. When I look at the politics right, 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:54.040 the political dimension of this and the longer term, then 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:57.400 I'm saying, but wait a minute. The United Kingdom has 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:01.320 in the past um all the time in a nation 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:06.240 that tries to block further integration attempts in Europe. Um. 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:10.440 In fact, it has also been a force time to reconstructed. 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:13.960 FED chair Janet Yellen, offering a subtle change to her 0:02:14.000 --> 0:02:16.080 outlook from less than a week ago, saying she and 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:19.160 her colleagues are on watch for weather rather than when 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:22.919 the US economy will show clear signs of improvement. Gold 0:02:22.960 --> 0:02:26.120 now down twenty three fifty ounds, dropping one eight percent, 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.480 The tenure down four thirty seconds that yield one point 0:02:29.560 --> 0:02:33.120 seven percent. SMP five hundred index up nine, a gain 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:35.960 of point four percent. Dow Industrial is up sixty one, 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:40.120 also a gain of point four percent, and two on 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:42.280 Wall Street. Now, let's take a look at other news 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:46.679 from around the world. Thank you, Charlie from the Bloomberg 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:49.600 News room. I'm Jill Schneider. This news update is brought 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.280 to you by the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the most awarded 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:55.760 suv ever. The Grand Cherokee continues to raise the bar 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:59.720 with its luxurious interior and legendary four by four capability. 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:02.880 Drive one at your local Jeep dealer today. The Clinton 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.960 Foundation was among the organizations breached by suspected Russian hackers 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:09.679 in a dragnet of the US political apparatus ahead of 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:12.959 the November election that, according to three people familiar with 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:16.840 the matter, reckless and careless. Those are the words presumptive 0:03:16.840 --> 0:03:20.800 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton used today to describe Donald Trump's 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:25.000 economic policies. Clinton warned a crowd in Columbus, Ohio. Trump's 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:28.400 fiscal policies would spell disaster for America. Is this who 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:33.480 you want to lead us in an emergency? Someone thin 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:36.760 skinned and quick to anger, who would likely be on 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:41.800 Twitter attacking reporters or bringing the whole regulatory system down 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:45.640 on his critics. By partisan group of lawmakers on Capitol 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:48.800 Hill today announced a proposed compromise for a kind of 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:52.160 no fly no by gun control rule that would bar 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.200 people on the no fly list from getting weapons. South 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:59.320 Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham supports the legislation. This sort 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:04.440 of makes sense to me. I own an a R fifteen. Uh, 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:07.360 if you're on this list, it doesn't bother me one 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.120 bit that you can't buy one right away. Attorney General 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:13.040 Lauretta Lynch visited with relatives of victims in the Orlando 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.640 massacre today, telling them we stand with you. Lynch called 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.919 it a shattering attack on our nation. Global news twenty 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:22.599 four hours a day, poward by more than twenty hundred 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:25.960 journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:29.760 From the Bloomberg newsroom, I'm Jill Schneider. This is Bloomberg Charlie, 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.880 and we are brought to you by SAGE Summit, the 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:37.800 world's largest gathering of small and medium businesses, featuring Sir 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:43.520 Richard Branson July to eight in Chicago. Register with promo 0:04:43.640 --> 0:04:46.760 code of Business at Sage summit dot com for just 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.720 recapping SMP up eight to two thousand ninety one, a 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:54.520 gain of four tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett. 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:58.760 That's a Bloomberg Business flash. You're listening to taking Stock 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:03.000 with Kathleen pim Fox on Bloomberg Radio. Two days to 0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:05.799 the gregs of vote closely washing the markets around the world. 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.480 The latest polls show that the gap has narrowed once 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:11.920 again between those who may vote to stay in the 0:05:12.040 --> 0:05:13.960 EU and those who may vote to go. But it's 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:17.200 not just a question for the citizens of the United 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:20.000 Kingdom and their policymakers. It's a question for all of 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:23.200 Europe because certainly one of the complaints that has been 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:25.800 heard is that this is a European Union that's not 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:27.560 doing what it was set up to do, and it's 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.159 better for the United Kingdom to go joining US now. 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:34.480 As Irene Finel Hanigman, she's Agent Professor of International Affairs 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:38.000 at Columbia University. Irene, welcome back to the show. Thank 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:41.320 you delighted to be back. So you have been You're 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:44.240 originally from France, and you have a student and and 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:47.280 and and and an economist and done so many things 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:50.680 that have to do with Europe. How do you just 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:53.760 sit back? You iman kind of a gas that this 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:58.320 may be happening. I'm very sad that it's happening, and 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.440 hopefully it will not happen, but I am not that 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:07.440 surprised considering the extreme amount of political volatility anti EU 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:12.120 and anti euro sentiment across factions in Europe. Uh, and 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.600 the fact that with the migration crisis this has all 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:18.080 now come to a head. So hopefully this can be resolved. 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:21.720 But it is not unfortunately surprised now, Irene, I just 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:25.640 want to get your thoughts on what would happen regardless 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:30.400 of which way UK voters decide on Thursday. Does something 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:35.160 have to change in the way Europe runs itself? Absolutely? Um. 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:38.600 I think the first thing is that even if the 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:42.080 UK stays in and the markets calmed down and we're 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:45.840 moving forward, the most important thing is that it's not 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:49.680 be accepted with complacency, because there clearly will have to 0:06:49.760 --> 0:06:53.200 be some institutional changes. They will also have to be 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:57.040 a great deal more transparency and accountability coming out of 0:06:57.120 --> 0:07:00.880 politicians from all sides of the debate as to what 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:05.360 exactly is the relationship between Brussels and the other countries 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:08.720 within the EU. We have also been so focused in 0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:11.880 the last three or four years on the Eurozone that 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.119 we have often forgotten about what all of this means 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:18.520 for the larger European Union. And I think this is 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:22.000 going to have to be re examined and very carefully 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:25.080 looked at in terms also of an identity crisis, because 0:07:25.160 --> 0:07:29.640 Europe right now is facing the existential crisis. An existential 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:33.960 crisis meaning we don't know who we are anymore, meaning 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:35.640 we don't we thought we were going to a path 0:07:35.720 --> 0:07:39.080 that would make Europe more democratic and more prosperous, but 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:42.640 somehow we've gotten off tracker. Can we who are these Europeans? 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:45.800 Can you really expect everybody to be European in the 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:49.400 same way? That's exactly right. And however, what is so 0:07:49.600 --> 0:07:53.880 interesting is that when you look at the responses among 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:56.280 those who are twenty five and younger, in other words, 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:58.680 who were literally born at the time of the Monstro 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:02.160 Treaty of the Storts started this. They still do think 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:06.800 of themselves as European plus their national identity, but very 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:10.080 sadly because of the sovereign debt crisis, because of the 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:13.640 amount of unemployment, the fact that so much funding has 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:18.080 been cut for cross border education, cross border awareness. UH, 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:21.160 there is even a sense of loss in a way, 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:24.120 a sense of exactly a kind of loss of identity. 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:26.840 And this is something that has to be brought back 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:30.640 to the surface. And this really falls back on the 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:36.480 responsibility of politicians to start to explain, beyond data driven information, 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:40.240 what are these real issues, where do they come from, 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:42.600 why this is important and that has not been happening 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.520 at all. Speak if you can about the military alliance 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:51.520 that may or may not develop with the European Union Army. Well, 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:56.120 I think this is what is often uh not abroad, 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:58.520 I think out as much as it should is beyond 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:02.960 the economic issue. When we talk about the relationship between 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:07.439 the EU and the UK, we're looking at legal accord 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:14.200 uh basically packed uh integration on all levels of social policy, 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:19.079 defense policy, security policy, environmental policy. And this certainly is 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:22.760 an issue, particularly as the UK and France have come 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:25.840 together much more closely in the last few years since 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:31.040 Libya on defense policy, as this is also very much 0:09:31.080 --> 0:09:34.080 an issue of NATO. So I think all of these 0:09:34.240 --> 0:09:37.520 factors now are at play and could in fact have 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:41.160 to be either thought out again or redefined or at 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:45.400 worth renegotiated if Brexit came about. What do you put 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:49.120 the odds now you've watched the polls UM, I think, 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:53.079 as you mentioned, right after the tragic death of the 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:57.480 young UM Labor member of Parliament, Joe Cox, it looked 0:09:57.520 --> 0:10:01.120 as if the remain UH group, the anti Brexit with 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:05.120 doing much better right now from what I understand in 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:10.000 the last few hours, it's again basically almost entirely even 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:13.880 between the Leave and Remain factions. Hard to know, I 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:17.439 think to the very last minute, and even if the 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:21.280 UK does remain, the vote will probably by by a 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:25.120 very very tiny Martyre. Thank you very much for joining us. 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:30.040 Irene Finell Hanigman is adjunct Professor of International Affairs at 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:34.520 Columbia University. She is also the author of a cultural 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:40.079 History of finance. Speaking about Brexit and the vote this 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:46.920 June Thursday, by the Populace of the United Kingdom, we'll 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:50.240 see whether they're going to remain part of the European Union. 0:10:50.800 --> 0:11:00.920 You're listening to taking stock on Bloomberg Radio, wondering what 0:11:01.040 --> 0:11:04.040 to do with your investments in the midst of the 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.120 FED getting more uncertain about the economy in a big 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:10.000 gregsit vote. Bob Dohl is joining as from Nouvine Asset Management. 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:12.199 He still likes stocks, and he'll tell us why on 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:13.079 Bloomberg Radio.