WEBVTT - Leon Panetta Talks Russia/Ukraine War

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Turning overseas Now where Ukraine was hit overnight by a

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<v Speaker 2>barrage of Russian drones igniting a fire at an energy

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<v Speaker 2>facility in the Odessa region that had emergency workers racing

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<v Speaker 2>to the scene. A drone from that attack crashing of

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<v Speaker 2>the Poland Poland and EU and NATO member claiming the

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<v Speaker 2>crash was a provocation from Russia. That coming the same

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<v Speaker 2>day that NATO military chiefs met remotely as we await

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<v Speaker 2>more details for a potential trilateral meeting between Presidents Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>Putin and Zelenski. For more, we want to bring in

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<v Speaker 2>Leon Panetta, former US Secretary of Defense and former director

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<v Speaker 2>of the CIA. Thank you for joining US. Director Panetta.

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<v Speaker 2>We want to start tonight with this whole question of

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<v Speaker 2>security guarantees, which has been the main and driving topic

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<v Speaker 2>of Ukraine this week since the meeting on Monday at

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<v Speaker 2>the White House between President Trump and European leader. To

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<v Speaker 2>your view, what do security guarantees need to look like

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<v Speaker 2>to essentially prevent a repeat of what happened in nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>ninety four with the Budapest memorandum that really left Ukraine

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<v Speaker 2>of the long run, short of an adequate defense against

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<v Speaker 2>a potential Russian invasion.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the primary point that needs to be made with

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<v Speaker 3>these security assurances is that the United States and our

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<v Speaker 3>European allies, particularly those that are part of NATO, will

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<v Speaker 3>in fact make clear that they will come to the

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<v Speaker 3>assistance of Ukraine if Russia should attack in the future.

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<v Speaker 3>And so Europe has indicated that they're prepared to move

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<v Speaker 3>in that direction. I think the President indicated that he

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<v Speaker 3>was prepared to support security clearances, even though he was

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<v Speaker 3>pulled back on boots on the ground. He did say

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<v Speaker 3>that they would look seriously at providing air support to

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<v Speaker 3>help in those security assurances. The one problem right now

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<v Speaker 3>is that Russia is saying that somehow it needs a

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<v Speaker 3>veto power over what those assurances look like. And since

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<v Speaker 3>the primary purpose of those security assurances is to be

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<v Speaker 3>able to protect Ukraine from a Russian invasion, I'm not

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<v Speaker 3>so sure that's something that's going to happen.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, and mister Secretary, we did have Bloomberg viy's reporting

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<v Speaker 4>today actually that European leaders are discussing a guarantee for

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<v Speaker 4>Ukraine that would commit allies to decide within twenty four

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<v Speaker 4>hours whether to provide military support to the country if

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<v Speaker 4>it was attacked again by Russia. Much to your point,

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<v Speaker 4>but just to drill down a little further on this,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm wondering what is realistic what should we expect from

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<v Speaker 4>the US when it comes to their side of contributing

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<v Speaker 4>it to these guarantees. For example, we hear a lot

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<v Speaker 4>about air cover and that seems to be an emerging

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<v Speaker 4>theme in these discussions.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think to be fair, security assurances are not

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<v Speaker 3>going to work unless the United States is part of

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<v Speaker 3>that agreement. We bring a lot to the table, obviously

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<v Speaker 3>from a military point of view and from the ability

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<v Speaker 3>to try to support any military effort that might have

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<v Speaker 3>to occur on the ground. So it's very important that

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<v Speaker 3>the United States be part of those security assurances. It's

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<v Speaker 3>very important that Europe agree that they will come together

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<v Speaker 3>and support Ukraine in that event. I think twenty four

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<v Speaker 3>hours is probably makes some sense, but it really has

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<v Speaker 3>to look like implementation of a Title five kind of

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<v Speaker 3>approach that once Russia decides to invade Ukraine again, that

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<v Speaker 3>all the nations of NATO will again respond as they

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<v Speaker 3>have now.

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<v Speaker 2>Director Panetta last night and Balance of Power, we spoke

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<v Speaker 2>with William Taylor, former US Ambassador to Ukraine. Here's what

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<v Speaker 2>he had to say about the prospect of Vladimir Putin

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<v Speaker 2>really participating in a bilateral or even trilateral meeting with

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<v Speaker 2>Vladimir Zelenski.

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<v Speaker 1>Putin doesn't want to end this war. Putin wants to

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<v Speaker 1>drag it out. He wants to keep pounding the Ukrainians

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<v Speaker 1>until they give up. They're never going to give up,

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<v Speaker 1>but he's going to keep pounding until he's forced to

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<v Speaker 1>come to the table for a ceasefire. So no, I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think he's eager to I don't think he has

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<v Speaker 1>any intentions of coming to a bilateral meeting. He may

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<v Speaker 1>say something on the phone to President Trump to tell

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump that he's willing to do it, but they're

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<v Speaker 1>not serious about these negotiations, and Putin does not either.

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<v Speaker 1>Putin wants all of Ukraine and he wants to pound

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<v Speaker 1>them until he gets that.

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<v Speaker 2>Director Panetta, we have yet to hear from Moscow about

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<v Speaker 2>whether they will or will not agree to a meeting

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<v Speaker 2>between vladimir's Lensky and Vladimir Putin. How much time should

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump give the Russian leader to agree to a

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<v Speaker 2>sit down, and what happens next if Putin balks or refuses.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, again, there is a fundamental principle here that Bill

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<v Speaker 3>Taylor referred to, which is that you can't trust Vladimir

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<v Speaker 3>Putin in these issues. You just can't. I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>eighty eight percent of the American people in a recent

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<v Speaker 3>poll said do not trust Vladimir Putin. That's pretty good

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<v Speaker 3>judgment on the part of the American people. That's the

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<v Speaker 3>reality is that it's very difficult to really try to

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<v Speaker 3>find a way to get Putin to negotiate seriously right now.

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<v Speaker 3>I think he's largely playing for time. He's continuing the war.

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<v Speaker 3>He's refused to agree to any kind of cease fire.

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<v Speaker 3>He even talked about the need to eliminate the root causes.

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<v Speaker 2>Of the war.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the root cause of the war was that Russia

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<v Speaker 3>invaded Ukraine on the basis that it is a part

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<v Speaker 3>of Russia and not a sovereign democracy on its own.

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<v Speaker 3>So he basically is saying he wants to win. I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's very important for President Trump to make very

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<v Speaker 3>clear to Putin that he wants them to participate in

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<v Speaker 3>this trilateral or meeting with his Vilenski and if it

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't happen. I think the president really does have to.

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<v Speaker 3>He's got to come back and hold tough with Putin

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<v Speaker 3>by implementing sanctions, by providing weapons, and by making very

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<v Speaker 3>clear develop Vladimir Putin that he cannot win this war.

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<v Speaker 3>That is going to be very important to our ability

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<v Speaker 3>to negotiate.

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<v Speaker 4>A US secretary of Defense and former director of the CIA,

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<v Speaker 4>we thank you so much for joining us on Bloomberg