WEBVTT - The Great Resignation Could Soon Be The Great Sacking 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:16.160 Earlier this year, there were tons of stories about businesses 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:19.599 handing out big bonuses to retain talent, massive pay rises 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:22.760 for people willing to switch firms, and people leaving work 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:25.280 all together. In fact, that last bit even got its 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:30.360 own nickname, the Great Resignation. But with all the economic 0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:34.600 headwinds the country is facing surging cost of living rising inflation. 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:37.000 A top British CEO recently told me he felt that 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.960 the Great Resignation was now going to actually turn into 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:43.519 the Great Sacking. We've been hearing earnings from the banks, 0:00:43.840 --> 0:00:46.760 some reporting lower profits than they have done for many years, 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:48.839 Golden Sacks saying that they were going to slow their 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:53.040 hiring spree. They're also reintroducing their annual performance reviews where 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:57.120 they culled the under performers, and that got us thinking, 0:00:57.280 --> 0:01:00.600 I mean, are the employees about to actually lose their vantage. 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:07.119 I'm David Merritt in the London studio and this is 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:10.080 in the City Bloomberg's podcast, connecting you to the stories 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:12.720 at the heart of the City of London, and so 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.400 to give a broader sense of the jobs market across 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:18.960 the UK, I spoke to James Read, the CEO and 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:24.919 chairman of Red UK that's Britain's largest jobs recruitment company. First, 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:27.800 I'm joined here by Bloomberg's Tom Metcalf, who heads up 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:29.880 all of our City of London coverage, to zoom into 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:32.440 what's happening on the ground with the jobs market in 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:35.560 the City of London. Tom, thank you so much for 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:38.920 talking to in the city. We're exploring what the health 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:40.600 is of the job market in the City of London. 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:44.680 You track finance in the UK capital. How's it looking. Well, 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:47.520 it's been interesting because since the pandemic, you know, things 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.320 are going gangbash, so there's more and more jobs are available. 0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:52.720 We're getting figures from various people. That's the best time 0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:55.800 ever you could possibly choose to move. What's particularly interesting 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:57.760 for me right now is just sort of the situation 0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:01.040 is starting to maybe muddy slightly. You've got some areas 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:03.400 which still seem to be doing very well and others 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:05.520 which are starting to struggle. And I think that's what's 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:08.280 going to be really telling over the coming months, you know, 0:02:08.280 --> 0:02:11.320 as the economic outlook starts to clarify a bit, I 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:13.120 think we might have a bit less of a positive 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.760 sense from the job market. So which are those areas 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.720 which are starting to look shaky, where people starting to 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:22.160 worry for their job security. Yeah. For me, that the 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:24.240 big one is investment banking, So that is the sort 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:26.399 of part of the city that might be advising on 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:28.680 you know, I p O s on M and A. 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:32.480 So the traditional kind of suited bankers, you know, going 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:34.919 out glad handing clients and that at least in terms 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:37.440 when we see listings that is way down. The deals 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:40.520 are dried up, right, So these guys are sitting on 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:43.160 their hands over the summer. Well yeah, basically, and obviously 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:45.520 you've had a big sort of horror in boost previously. 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:47.000 It was a very busy year last year, and now 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.400 they're suddenly finding hey, maybe we have too many people. 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:51.640 So what we're hearing from people in the space is 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:54.680 certainly there's very few jobs out there going forward, and 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:57.120 when people do leave, perhaps they're not looking to sort 0:02:57.160 --> 0:02:59.639 of actively replace them, just because if you're if you're 0:02:59.639 --> 0:03:01.560 at least and banker in London, there's there's very little 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:03.880 to be done right now, and the pipeline for the 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.400 I p. A market's not looking great either as it 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:08.760 for I mean, there's the arm deal which is obviously 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:11.080 in doubt whether or not that our count to London. 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:12.560 I know there's lots of lobbying on that and that 0:03:12.600 --> 0:03:15.000 would be a mega, a blockbuster deal, but there's not 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.960 much else. Is there anything else coming? And no, nothing, 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.680 nothing significant, So you know, big change from last year. 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:22.560 And that's the thing. It's a very sort of what 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:24.720 you kill type industry, right and if if the deals 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:27.080 aren't coming, then there's as you say, banker is probably 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.639 sitting on their hands or lots of pitching. But right now, 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:31.280 and this is true of a lot of listening markets, 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:33.400 there's just just not much activity. And what about M 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:35.880 and A Similarly, I think that's a bit more sort 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:38.120 of defensive in that you know that will continue to 0:03:38.120 --> 0:03:41.560 sustain itself no matter you know what the economic outlook is. 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:43.840 And some some people say, hey, look in tough times, 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:45.680 it's a great time to do M and A, But 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:48.240 again in terms of those big standout deals, is very 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.640 few right now, and that's just so much uncertainty right 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.360 there's a lot of wait and see in that markets 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:54.840 are not as drastic as the listings. But again I 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:57.680 wouldn't say the sort of job market in M and 0:03:57.720 --> 0:03:59.680 A banking is sort of going to be flying in 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:01.440 the next few months. Okay, so you don't want to 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:02.880 be in e CM, you don't want to be in 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:05.320 M and A. What are the areas which are still 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:08.160 doing well, what people are still getting these pay rises 0:04:08.200 --> 0:04:11.120 to switch firms, and where the job market really looks 0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:14.360 booming still well? I think trading doing very well. It's 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:16.720 kind of feeding off that market volatility. And you know, 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:19.240 the interesting about trading is whether it's quite or busy, 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:21.200 you kind of need the same number of people. So 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.880 if someone does leave a position, they tend to get 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:27.120 replaced fairly fairly quickly, so that's a positive place. And 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:29.880 then of course stuff like compliance and of course we've 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:31.640 been hearing from CEO is a lot about this. Anyone 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:33.960 with sort of tech capabilities. So if you know, you 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:36.400 know your finance, but you're also able to code, those 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:38.520 jobs are still like gold dust and and that's a 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:41.919 fantastic place to be as a employee. We're seeing people 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:45.920 in those parts of the industry switch roles for big 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.400 pay rises and people's salaries getting bit up. There's been 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:51.160 headlines around some of the big bonuses that are coming 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:53.920 or the big total conversation packages people are getting in 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:56.640 the city is that is that still happening over the summer, 0:04:56.960 --> 0:04:58.560 certainly in the right areas. And I mean I'm looking 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.159 at a stat here from Morgan Kenley, a recruiter, and 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:03.280 they're saying, like the average salary change in the second 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:06.640 quarter was basically so that's kind of spread across not 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:08.520 just the super hot areas as well. It gives you 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:11.160 a sense of if you're really sought after, how how 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:13.240 well you can do at this point. So you know, 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:16.240 there are some eye popping things, and when people move, 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:18.520 you know, we hear tales of sort of guaranteed conversation 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:21.279 and stuff like that. But again, it's in those certain areas, 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:23.840 and I think the broader picture is a much more 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:27.159 sort of mixed one. And you know, I would say, 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:29.240 also the heat is done, come out of the market 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:31.839 a bit. What about the economic headwinds that we're facing 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:35.040 you mentioned them about earlier. A lot of uncertainty as 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:36.880 we head into the end of the year all around 0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:41.040 the world. Obviously, fears of recession in many markets, including here. 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.039 We know all about the high inflation problem that needs 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:45.599 to happen, and we don't know what sort of government 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:47.640 we're going to have here after September the five with 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:50.839 the new Prime Minister is announced. What impact does that 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:54.640 have on the ability for city firms to hire to 0:05:55.080 --> 0:05:57.839 plan for the rest of the year. Yeah, it's it 0:05:57.880 --> 0:06:01.600 was interesting mentioned house was was this month and basically 0:06:01.640 --> 0:06:04.000 we're here in you know, the government forward yet another 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:06.400 plan about how it's going to take advantage of this 0:06:06.480 --> 0:06:10.560 Brexit dividend. You know. Again, it's sort of well, that's 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:12.720 the thing. It's all very rhetorical at the moment, right, 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:15.160 and I think when you talk to people in the city, 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:18.039 they have sort of effectively given up on any kind 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:20.320 of obvious reward from that, and they're just sort of 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:22.839 planning on kind of being stuck in this sort of 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:25.039 limbo really in terms of you know, we're not in 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:27.800 the EU, but we're not massively pivoting away from pre 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:31.039 existing regulation or anything like that. And you know, I 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.880 think that's sort of the challenges as that lack of 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:36.640 clarity means, you know, these really big decisions are probably 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:39.039 just being kicked down the path a bit um and 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:41.200 instead you sort of you know, manage watched in front 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:43.040 of you. Yeah, because who's going to be the chancellor, 0:06:43.080 --> 0:06:44.799 who's going to be the Chief Secretary to the Treasury. 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:47.160 Who's going to be in charge of the city regulation. 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:49.919 What does that regulation of premier even look like. No 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:52.240 one knows today at this point. No, And and that's 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:54.880 going to be very interesting thing about September. So the 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:57.320 current Chancellor sort of push this decision on something called 0:06:57.400 --> 0:07:00.920 cooling power down the road, but it became very clear 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:03.640 that whoever does take over the Conservative leadership and the 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:06.520 Prime ministership, then they'll have to make that cool in 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:09.120 terms of do we start to see more government intervention 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:18.400 in regulatory matters. Thank you, Tom metcalf as always. So 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:20.360 now let zoom out and look at the picture across 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:22.480 the whole of Britain. And I'm joined in the studio 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:25.800 by James Reid. He's the chief executive officer and chairman 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:29.240 of Read UK and they are the largest jobs recruitment 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:33.200 company in Britain. James, thank you so much for joining 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:36.360 us on in the city. I just wanted to start 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:38.840 with this question about where we are at now at 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:40.559 this moment in time. Back in the spring, the story 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:42.920 was that the job market was red hot here in 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:45.320 the City of London. We were writing that city firms 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:49.000 are desperate to hire this really tight job market it 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:51.440 feels that something has changed. We had common Sacks coming 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:54.160 out just recently saying they're going to slow hiring. Now, 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:56.960 is that what you're seeing? Well, we're still seeing very 0:07:57.040 --> 0:07:59.760 large numbers of vacancies, but I'd say the race at 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.600 which those vacancies have been increasing has really slowed down. 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:06.520 So a year ago a job's boom began in Britain 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.880 and particularly in the city, the level of demand is 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:13.400 still very high and there are fewer people available to 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:16.320 do these jobs than there are vacancies, so it's a 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.960 very tight labor market. I would say it hasn't hasn't 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:24.840 overheated completely, which was looking perilously possible earlier in the year, 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:26.960 so it has has cooled a bit, but it's still 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.840 very tight. So does that mean we're still seeing cases 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:33.199 of these inflated salaries people are having to bid up 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:36.960 the amount of money to poach people from different firms. 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:39.839 Is it? Is it still that hot? Well? The data 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:41.960 that was published from the o NS is very interesting 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:46.119 because it showed that pay was not keeping pace with inflation. 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:48.440 So overall pay in the private sector was up about 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:52.880 seven p and inflation is obviously now about nine and rising, 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:57.160 so inflation is galloping ahead of pay. But interestingly, in 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:00.760 finance and insurance roles pay the media increase in pay 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:04.120 was reported as above ten percent, so those areas are 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.480 doing well, especially when you compare them with say arts 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:09.680 and entertainment, where the medium increase was one point four percent. 0:09:10.120 --> 0:09:12.400 So there are still there's still a lot of movement 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:16.040 on pay, particularly where skills are in tight demand. And 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:18.120 in the past, you know on read dot co dot UK, 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.600 when we saw companies advertising for roles, they were typically 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:24.559 advertise a premium of say ten percent above the market 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:27.960 rate to get people to move. Now we're seeing above 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:29.840 the market rate to get people to move if those 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:33.120 people have particular skills, and that's particular finance out in front. 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:37.400 Do you think they're increases because there's such a shortage 0:09:37.400 --> 0:09:40.400 still for for finances, Well, yeah, for for particular skills, 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.880 that's exactly what's happening, and we're seeing it in a 0:09:42.920 --> 0:09:46.760 number of sectors, but finance and technology in particular, and 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:49.520 you know, skills like digital marketing in such demand. You know, 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:54.000 we're seeing up to increases for people moving. But that's 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:57.240 what's interesting about this market because the cost of living 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:00.200 is going up on a daily basis now and and 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:04.680 it's accelerating. More people are looking around thinking well where 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:06.959 can I go to earn more money? And so we're 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:08.280 going to see a lot of people on the move 0:10:08.320 --> 0:10:10.840 I think later this year. But in those top end jobs, 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:13.120 you know, the cost of living, as we all know, 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.040 impacts people at the lower end of the placecout doesn't 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.040 it much more, you know, when it's about food inflation 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:20.000 or transport. Doesn't really touch the size, does it for 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:21.880 a city trader. And yet they're still using that as 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:23.920 an argument they need to shift jobs and get fit. 0:10:24.440 --> 0:10:26.400 I was I suppose I was referring to the whole market. 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:28.960 But if if you can see a job very similar 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:30.960 to your own and it's paying fifty more, it's going 0:10:30.960 --> 0:10:33.480 to get your attention, isn't it. And and that's why 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:35.680 employers are doing this because a lot of people are 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:38.040 sitting quite comfortably in their in their current jobs. They 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:39.840 might have got a deal where they can work more 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:42.280 flexibly than they were before. They're well set up at 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.840 home and in the office. They probably enjoy their job 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:47.400 and they enjoy the people they work with. So to 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:50.000 get someone like that to move, employers are having to 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:52.360 pay a premium to get their attention, and the two 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:55.800 things that we were told from applicants that they particularly 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:58.560 look for more money and if it's significant, they're very 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:01.880 much more likely to move, and more flexibility. Right. Yeah, 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:03.960 I wanted to ask about the flexibility question because we 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:06.680 all thought companies are going to have to reinvent their 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:08.400 approach to this. We've been on a bit of a 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:11.280 journey at Bloomberg on this as well, about how often 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.680 we expect people to be in the office. But actually 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:16.120 some of the banks have been pretty clear that they 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:18.560 expect people back at their desks. Are they having to 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:21.120 soften their tone in order to get people to make 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.880 those switches? Well, it depends who they are. I think 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:27.920 employers that I would describe as destination employers where people 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:31.120 really want to work and when they get very good packages, 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:33.079 they can call the shots still. But there are a 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:36.199 lot of other people who aren't in that position, and 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:39.520 we have a lot of applicants who are declining opportunities 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.679 because they're not offered with flexible working as a possibility. 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:45.120 Technology one of those places. Yeah, I mean, we've got 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:48.000 some great clients in the technology space who say we 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:51.120 want people in attendance every day, and really good applicants 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:53.640 are saying that doesn't work for me anymore, and they're 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:56.400 they're looking for other opportunities and turning it down, and 0:11:56.679 --> 0:11:59.600 that is quite surprising. It's very different to three years ago. 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:01.760 Just looking forward then to the rest of the year, 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:04.840 we've had this hot jobs market. You're saying it's still there. 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:07.800 There's still a shortage. We're hearing from some of the banks. 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:11.400 They're starting to forecast a slowdown as the year goes on. 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:14.960 And if they're having to bid up salaries some of 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:18.120 these top jobs, that's not sustainable as it so towards 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:20.320 the end of the year. Are we going to see 0:12:20.640 --> 0:12:23.280 firms having to cut back? The question is what's going 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:27.320 to give. It depends on the financial circumstances of the bank. 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:29.520 You know, are they prepared to forego profit in the 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:32.079 short run to keep the team together and have a 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:35.000 very strong team for when things resume in a more 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:37.400 buoyant way, or are they keener to sort of cut 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:39.320 back costs at the same time. So it might be 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:41.400 that they allocate a certain amount of money for bonuses 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.000 and increases. That's it. If some people are going to 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:45.840 get more than others than other people will have to leave, 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.240 so it could be a sort of reckoning for for 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:51.360 a number of reckoning. I mean, I actually heard a 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:53.920 pretty shocking phrase from his chief executive told me yesterday 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:55.760 that the great resignation that we had earlier this year 0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:57.520 when people switch jobs, is going to turn into the 0:12:57.520 --> 0:12:59.760 great sacking towards the end of the year. Do you 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:04.400 think's overplaying it? Well, that's pretty bleak. And interestingly, our data, 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:07.840 which has been a very reliable indicator of recessions for 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.440 over a quarter of a century, because we have a 0:13:10.480 --> 0:13:13.840 lot of jobs advertised on our website, our data is 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:16.760 not currently showing a recession in prospect and it's been 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:20.600 very reliably doing so every time until now. And so 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.680 either there's not a recession coming, this is something else, 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:25.760 or if it is a recession, it's not going to 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:29.080 be a recession where lots of jobs are lost according 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:31.440 to our data, because we're just seeing such big volumes 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.680 of jobs, so many people are hiring, and the big 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:36.520 and most harmful consequence of many recessions is so many 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:39.720 people losing work and demand plummeting, so there's less demanding 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:43.000 the column. It becomes a sort of downward spiral. I 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.800 can't see that happening from our data. That's fascinating. Can 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:47.120 you tell us a bit more about that data? Is 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:49.120 that sort of weekly you're getting the you're you're looking 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:51.679 at a snapshot of open roles and the kind of 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:53.720 we have. We have over a quarter of a million 0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:56.520 jobs advertised on red dot co dot uk any one time, 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.200 and we see on a daily basis how many jobs 0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:00.840 are coming in and how many jobs are being filled, 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:03.840 and how many people are applying. And we've seen since 0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:07.720 a year and a half ago, rapidly increasing numbers of jobs, 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:10.160 and it's now sustained at a very high level, so 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:13.560 there are still many jobs. We saw a downturn long 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.840 before the pandemic in June. We could see that the 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:19.160 market was going off before COVID made it even worse. 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:22.200 We can't see that now. Now. It might be that 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:26.320 it's a different type of recession, but from my experience, 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.680 it doesn't look like a recession. It's something else that 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:30.400 is fascinating. I would love to I think we should 0:14:30.400 --> 0:14:32.760 be starting to track the read index here like as 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:35.960 the kind of recession indicator. Right, it's been pretty reliable 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:37.320 so far. I mean, I look at it with b 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:40.360 D eyes, because our businesses are very cyclical. Business recruitment 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:42.880 companies are very cyclical. It's a leading edge because the 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:45.240 first thing someone does when they're thinking of hiring is 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.240 advertised the role. You know, the government data comes up 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:50.440 when they've been hired or when they start paying taxes, 0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:53.480 so it's always a bit later. So no recession according 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.840 to your data. And again that's a bit of an 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:57.840 outlier called increasing now, isn't it. You know, we tracked 0:14:57.840 --> 0:14:59.440 the kind of amount of time that word is used, 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:02.560 and it's definitely going up. But casting our minds forward 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:04.720 into the autumn again, we've got a kind of big 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.760 divergent path here, haven't we. We've got two competing visions 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:09.720 for the economy and the tour relaveship contests. As we 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:13.320 record this, this trust has a pretty sizeable lead over 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.480 Richie Sonac. She's talking about a very radical new direction, 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:18.400 isn't she for the economy? Is that something that you 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:21.320 think would be a positive as we try to skirt 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:24.080 this recession. I've been looking at this, I mean, is 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:25.880 it a radical new direction or is it just a 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:27.640 return to where we were a couple of years ago? 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.760 Because you know, these decisions to increase taxes and put 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:35.120 up corporation tax have all been relatively recent, and there's 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.440 a lot of debate around whether that timing was good 0:15:37.520 --> 0:15:40.920 or correct, And as a policy direction, it seems to 0:15:40.920 --> 0:15:43.000 be a bit of an outlier compared to other world 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:46.920 leading economies to be increasing taxes at a time when 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:49.320 the cost of living is also going up so fast. 0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.400 So I think as a business person, I'm not a 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:55.520 I'm not a party member, I don't have a vote 0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:57.800 in this election, but as a business person, I won't 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:00.560 be unhappy to see corporation tax come back to where 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.120 it was or even better if that's the plan. I 0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.000 don't know, because tax of that sort of cost to 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.240 our business, and you know, it's money that we might 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:10.720 reinvest in our business if we still had a trust anomics. 0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:13.160 I think we're calling it what it might mean. I 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:14.880 guess we'll learn a bit more in the coming weeks. 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.360 But tax is clearly a big central plank of that, 0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.080 isn't it, both on the corporation front and on the 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.520 personal level as well as a way to support the 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.720 economy and get things growing again. And and Company is 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:28.160 going to respond to actually think, yeah, well, One interesting 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.680 observation I would make is, you know, we've heard about 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:33.360 the Great Resignation. It became known as the Big Lie 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:36.960 Down in China. Lots of people leaving the workforce because 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:41.520 the pandemic led them to have reflections and thoughts about 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.000 how they want to live their lives, and it didn't 0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:46.680 involve doing so much work. Tax and increasing tax on 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:50.720 working obviously fuels that because you know, if you if 0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:53.240 you're getting paid less ultimately when you go home because 0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:55.280 your national insurance has gone up, or relatively speak, your 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.240 income tax has gone up, that's a disincentive to going 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:01.800 to work. So I think is a legitimate argument for 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:05.439 saying a lower tax economy will encourage more people to 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:08.080 go to work, more companies to interest and help the 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:15.280 economy grow. But but you know, I understand that you know, 0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:18.159 public finances aren't where they should be, right. That's the 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:20.560 richest snak angle on this, isn't it. You know that 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.560 a true conservative approach is balancing the books. But can 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:25.600 I just talk a bit more about the city as well, 0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:29.239 because the government published their recommendations for ripping up some 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:32.399 of the eu legacy ways of running the City of 0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:35.639 London in particular, I optimistic going forward that that's going 0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:39.720 to manage to bolster the city as Europe's financial capital. 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:41.959 I don't want to mention the B word necessarily Brexit, 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:43.600 probably I guess I had to touch on that, like 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.720 the effects of that stobbing foult aren't they? Well you 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:50.280 just did. And you know, if if Brexit is to 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:53.200 be a success in the long run, that the opportunity 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:55.359 it offers to do things a bit differently need to 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:59.080 be seized. I mean, what what where can we improve regulation? 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:02.159 Where can we changed the way businesses are run and 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.280 managed to make our country and our economy more successful. 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:08.520 I mean I look at particular the sort of labor market, 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:11.600 and you know there needs to be there needs to 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:16.399 be a workforce strategy to help deal with these big problems. Um. 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:18.640 You know, every business we're talking to at the moment 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:22.639 seems to be struggling to hire people and that could 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:26.719 be uniquely UK initiative. It doesn't you know, they might 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:28.400 be able to do things now that they weren't able 0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:31.760 to do before because of the parameters and the rules. 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:33.840 So you know, I think there should be a real 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:38.080 investment in vocational education, real investment in apprenticeships, and there's 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:40.280 been a lot of talk about lifelong learning accounts. Well 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:43.040 that should be delivered. So you know, they say, as 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:45.480 a consequence of Brexit, it's policy we want to give 0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:49.639 opportunities to people in the UK for two British workers. Great, 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:52.320 that's great, but you need to prioritize education if you're 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:54.159 going to make that happen, and if you're going to 0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:59.160