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Speaker 1: My name is Kevin CURRELLI I am the chief Washington

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Speaker 1: correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio. We are

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Speaker 1: going to give you the complete back and forth and

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Speaker 1: the latest on the virus. But we begin tonight with

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Speaker 1: Congressman Patrick mckenry. He is a Republican representing the great

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Speaker 1: state of North Carolina, and he joins us on the

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Speaker 1: telephone line. Congressman, before we talk about FED Chair J.

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Speaker 1: Powell testifying as well as Treasury Secretary Monution testifying before

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Speaker 1: the House Financial Services Committee, of which you are a member,

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Speaker 1: a profit member. Dare I say, um, your reaction to Fauci,

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Speaker 1: to Pence and what we learned about the coronavirus. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean those are striking numbers. Number one. Um, that's

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Speaker 1: that's how I think of it. Number I would think. Additionally, Um,

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Speaker 1: the focus needs to be on testing. Number one is

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Speaker 1: the federal level. Number two getting a treatment regime. Um,

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Speaker 1: that is that there's understandable, understandable to the public, so

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Speaker 1: that we in the public know if you get sick,

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Speaker 1: this is how they'll treat you. Uh and uh, that's

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Speaker 1: number two, number three of vaccine. But that is obviously

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Speaker 1: a much more challenging thing to get to market. The

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Speaker 1: efficacy of it, Uh, it must be there, and so

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Speaker 1: uh it needs to be uh, you know, going through

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Speaker 1: the rigorous clinical trials and understanding of all that. So

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Speaker 1: I think that's going to take more time. But on

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Speaker 1: top of those things, we we in the public also

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Speaker 1: need to know how we control these risk factors. How

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Speaker 1: can you safely be out of the public right, what's

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Speaker 1: the value of social distancing? What's the value of masks?

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Speaker 1: Give me the circumstances for all this and so so

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Speaker 1: for me, it's all it's the risk mitigation question. We

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Speaker 1: know it's risk you uh, but you know, the the

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Speaker 1: more we're able to quantify those risks, the greater adherents.

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Speaker 1: I think we'll have to mask wearing and social distancing,

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Speaker 1: which was which are powerful tools. So that is how

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Speaker 1: I think about this stuff. Congressman, I want to get

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Speaker 1: to the hearing, but I just want to ask one

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Speaker 1: more follow up question, because have you been following what's

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Speaker 1: been happening in the UK. Prime Minister Boris Johnson committed

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Speaker 1: to spend billions of pounds dollars pounds on infrastructure in

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Speaker 1: order to rebuild the UK economy. The President has talked

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Speaker 1: about an infrastructure package plan here in the United States.

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Speaker 1: Boris Johnson Bojo obviously very um conservative. Is that something

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Speaker 1: that conservatives have the appetite for in the fall? Infrastructure? Well,

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Speaker 1: it's a mixed bagh and you've got the Republicans divided

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Speaker 1: on this issue. I think it's a reasonable thing. And

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Speaker 1: it's especially reasonable because you see state budgets where the

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Speaker 1: first thing they spent they cut is infrastructure spend long

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Speaker 1: term capital expenditures, and so I think it's I think

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Speaker 1: this is this would be the ripe time for us

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Speaker 1: to engage in a smart infrastructure spend around the next

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Speaker 1: generation of infrastructure. I think that's smart. Our our our

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Speaker 1: capacity to get funding for that is pretty strong right now,

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Speaker 1: um and and I think this is a high time

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Speaker 1: to sort of leap forward in terms of infrastructure. I

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Speaker 1: think so. All right, I want to ask you about

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Speaker 1: what you heard from Secretary Minution today because you asked

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Speaker 1: something that I cover extensively, and that's about the small businesses,

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Speaker 1: because four point five million small businesses benefited from the program,

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Speaker 1: but the average loan size is incredibly modest. What did

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Speaker 1: we learn about repurposing the one and thirty four billion

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Speaker 1: dollars that's still left over from that p p P

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Speaker 1: that quite honestly, these small businesses need congressmen. You know

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Speaker 1: that I do. And you know four point six million

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Speaker 1: small businesses taking advantage of this program. It wasn't because

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Speaker 1: it wasn't because they had a team of lobbyists. Because

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Speaker 1: the knee was there to support their payroll after all,

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Speaker 1: that's what it was called, the Paycheck Protection Program. And

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Speaker 1: so it was UM for the Payroll Protection Program. So

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Speaker 1: it's about ensuring that you actually get people still connect

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Speaker 1: with their employer and that they can for a period

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Speaker 1: of time, continue to have that connection even though the

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Speaker 1: business isn't isn't going. And so it was quite effective

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Speaker 1: UM and for a government program, it was one of

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Speaker 1: the more effective at getting knowledge in people's hands and

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Speaker 1: saving millions of small businesses. And so what we heard

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Speaker 1: today is that the Secretary is supportive of repurposing that fund,

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Speaker 1: those funds for additional relief, especially especially in folks that

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Speaker 1: were not able to utilize it effectively in the initial

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Speaker 1: go of the Paycheck Protection Program. Okay, so translate that,

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Speaker 1: what does that mean? Does that mean that there's going

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Speaker 1: to have to be when they say repurpose, what does

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Speaker 1: that mean? That means you're gonna be another program that's

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Speaker 1: going to be similar to UM but with a different

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Speaker 1: set of availability. Okay, and so I think that's good.

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Speaker 1: I think the additional thing that I'm support of is

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Speaker 1: the express in seven A program loan programs by getting

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Speaker 1: more funding which are too ready sp A programs that

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Speaker 1: have that that have had long term effectiveness, and small

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Speaker 1: businesses are are accustomed to utilizing and lenders are accustomed

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Speaker 1: to making those loans. I think we need to ensure

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Speaker 1: that there's plenty of money in those programs as well.

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Speaker 1: All Right, switching hears Congressman Patrick mcconnany is on the line.

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Speaker 1: He's one of the top Republicans, not the top Republican

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Speaker 1: on the House Financial Services Committee. He was out there

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Speaker 1: hearing today with FED Chair J Powell as well as

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Speaker 1: US Treasury Secretary Manution. We're talking about small businesses and

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Speaker 1: access to that. I have to follow up on the

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Speaker 1: point that there's left over money for small businesses. I

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Speaker 1: mean that is really difficult I think for many people

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Speaker 1: to wrap their heads around, because from many of these

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Speaker 1: small businesses they couldn't get the cash fast enough. They

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Speaker 1: kind of get the loans quick enough. The big businesses,

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, they have the lobbyists, they have the lawyers,

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Speaker 1: they're able to wait. But these small businesses that really

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Speaker 1: are like of the U. S. Economy, I'm responsible the

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Speaker 1: engine for the American economy, they couldn't wait. And so

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Speaker 1: I guess what it's It's really a reflection I would

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Speaker 1: argue of the success and also the limitations, not failures,

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Speaker 1: limitations of these massive policies that have been coming out

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Speaker 1: of government. But do you think that there's anything that

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Speaker 1: could be done too in the repurposing that would allow

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Speaker 1: for that for that money to get there faster? And

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Speaker 1: if so, what UM you know? I mean, there are

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Speaker 1: only the two fastest mechanisms in our society get money

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Speaker 1: out the door for the federal government, our banks and insurers.

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Speaker 1: Those are the two fastest readiest ways. Because insurance insurance

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Speaker 1: policies are you equited across society UM. Most people UM

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Speaker 1: have some kind of connection to financial institution are therefore

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Speaker 1: able to get paid UH via their employer um or

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Speaker 1: UM or traditional banks um UM or traditional banking relationships.

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Speaker 1: So those are the two fastest ways. That's why the

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Speaker 1: paycheck protection program was so effective that lenders were in

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Speaker 1: the driver's seat of getting those dollars out. UM. So

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Speaker 1: when we're looking at these programs to get relief to

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Speaker 1: stand up the economy for this temporary shutdown that we're

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Speaker 1: enduring because of this health crisis, UM, I think we

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Speaker 1: have to look at those institutions, the people's working relationships,

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Speaker 1: their employer relationships UM, support for gig workers UM and

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Speaker 1: UH and small businesses UM. I think those are the

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Speaker 1: ready ways to grant support. All right, not want to

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Speaker 1: pivot to the FED chairman because one of the points

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Speaker 1: that that you raised, well, first of all, he I

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Speaker 1: do just want to say what Powell said. He said, quote,

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Speaker 1: we have entered an important new phase, and I've done

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Speaker 1: so sooner than expected. While this bounce back and economic

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Speaker 1: activity is welcome, it also presents new challenges, notably the

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Speaker 1: need to keep the virus in check. It's it's been

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Speaker 1: a fascinating day to have FED share Pal testify, Hey,

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Speaker 1: we're doing this better than expected. And Fauci meanwhile saying,

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Speaker 1: wear a mask and you know this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a hundred thousand, you know cases a day. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's two very different developments. But I want to ask

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Speaker 1: you something that you had said for the purposes of

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Speaker 1: our economic audience, which was you said, chair Pal, you've

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Speaker 1: been transparent, but how are you gonna let us know

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Speaker 1: which metrics you're going to use over the next at

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Speaker 1: least couple of months in terms of how you're going

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Speaker 1: to use the Central Bank to help the recovery. What

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Speaker 1: did you find find out about his transparency on this issue?

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Speaker 1: Not much? UM, I mean, I mean, you know what,

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Speaker 1: what's a hallmark of of Jerome Pale's leadership of the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve is his language, right, The hallmark of his

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Speaker 1: leadership is sort of this honest, honest assessment. And he said,

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Speaker 1: these are quite uncertain times, and so we're going to

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Speaker 1: be pragmatic in our approach. And that's what we put

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Speaker 1: UH banks that they have oversight over that, that's what

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Speaker 1: they conveyed to we're gonna look at your UM, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna look at the capital regime for the largest banks,

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Speaker 1: and we're gonna review it UH sometime soon. And and

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Speaker 1: so the institutions want some certainty what they want to

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Speaker 1: UH when they want to know to what extent and

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Speaker 1: all this other stuff and the truth was from pal

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Speaker 1: is that in terms of regulation to ensure that banks

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Speaker 1: um have adequate castle um that the FED will just

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Speaker 1: be reviewing this based off of what's happening with the virus,

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Speaker 1: which what's happening with the economy and therefore those effects

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Speaker 1: on financial institutions UM, and so quite frankly, I was

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Speaker 1: it was. It was not the answer I wanted. However,

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Speaker 1: it was a sufficient answer because of the level of

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Speaker 1: honesty that he um that he was conveying. All Right,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have to leave it there. Congressman Patrick mckenry,

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Speaker 1: Republican from North Carolina giving us all of the lowdown

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Speaker 1: on the coronavirus as well as uh those testimony from

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Speaker 1: FED share J. Powell and US Treasury Secretary Stephen munition. Hey, Congressman,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. I appreciate the time as always,

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Speaker 1: thank you. And coming up on the program, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: pivot back to Hong Kong. We will discuss all of

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Speaker 1: the latest on Hong Kong and the Commerce Secretary's decision

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Speaker 1: to a voke that status. Plus we dive into politics

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Speaker 1: with Adam Hodge, formerly of the Obama Obama UH. There

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Speaker 1: it is Treasury Department so we've covered every angle, and

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Speaker 1: we're also going to check in with George Cee. He

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Speaker 1: is the CEO of Annandale Capital, Texas businessman and senior

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Speaker 1: advisor to Marco Rubio's presidential camp. Paigne lots to get through, folks.

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Speaker 1: I got my license back thanks to the folks at

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Speaker 1: the d m V. You know, socially distant waiting in line.

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Speaker 1: I got it, I got it. Make an appointment. And

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Speaker 1: here's a pro tip. If you have an appointment at

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Speaker 1: the d n B, go early because the line is

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Speaker 1: very long. That doesn't for me for right now, but

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Speaker 1: coming up, we have much more programming. I'm Kevin Silly

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Speaker 1: Chief Washington corresponded for Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: and you are listening to Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Sound

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Speaker 1: On with Kevin Surley on Bloomberg and what all five

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Speaker 1: point seven f m HD two of Kevin surreally cheap

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Speaker 1: Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for Bloomberg Radio. And

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Speaker 1: my friend Tammy called me on the way back from vacation.

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Speaker 1: She was down the beach. Down you guys, stay down

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Speaker 1: the beach. I grew up saying down the shore. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: she was on vacation with her family, and she goes, Oh,

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Speaker 1: I thought of you. I stopped at a while. I thought,

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Speaker 1: you know, that's the nicest thing anybody said to me

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Speaker 1: in a while. You know, you stop at a convenience store,

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Speaker 1: think keV um? What was I gonna say? Our next guest,

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Speaker 1: speaking of what it got me thinking of um barbecues

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Speaker 1: this weekend and all the good food. Fourth of July barbecue.

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Speaker 1: Our next guest is from Arkansas and knows a thing

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Speaker 1: or two, likely about barbecue, hopefully and ash him Senior

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Speaker 1: Director Government Affairs of the U. S. China Business Council. Anna,

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Speaker 1: where's the best place to barbecue in Arkansas? Oh? Gosh,

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Speaker 1: people from Arkansas will hate me for saying this. But Memphis. Wow,

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Speaker 1: even I know that Delko knows you don't say that. Okay,

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Speaker 1: give me the backstory before I talk about Hong Kong.

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Speaker 1: Why did you say Memphis? Hi? I just think Memphis

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Speaker 1: has the best barbecue of anywhere in the country. All right,

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Speaker 1: what do you get? Memphis is honestly not far from

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Speaker 1: from where I grew up. It's not so maybe I'm

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Speaker 1: biased for that reason. The producers are about to cringe,

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Speaker 1: but I hope they're listening. I've been walking in Memphis

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Speaker 1: once before in my life. Anyway. Okay, Hong Kong, uh fallout? Okay,

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Speaker 1: the U S revoked. It's a special training status. The

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Speaker 1: National People's Congress Standing Committee earlier on today adopted a

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Speaker 1: decision to write the legislation into the former British Colonies

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Speaker 1: law by saying, by signing a landmark national security law

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Speaker 1: for Hong Kong, which is a sweeping attempt to quell

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Speaker 1: dissent that drew fresh U S retaliation and could endanger

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Speaker 1: the city's appeal as a financial hub. Your reaction, Well, so,

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Speaker 1: we're still trying to fully unpack and assess what we

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Speaker 1: see in the law or in the information about the

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Speaker 1: law that we have available so far. Um. But what

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Speaker 1: we can say is that, um it is it is

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Speaker 1: not as sweeping as well, it's not that it's not sweeping,

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Speaker 1: it's not as clear as we might have expected exactly

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Speaker 1: what the ramifications will be for business there. It creates

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Speaker 1: a new commission reports to Beijing that's responsible for national

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Speaker 1: security in Hong Kong. We knew that would happen. There's

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Speaker 1: some big language that may allow for other aspects of

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Speaker 1: Chinese national security system to be applied in Hong Kong,

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Speaker 1: and it creates some new crimes with maximum punishment of

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Speaker 1: life in prison. But in terms of exactly what the

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Speaker 1: impact will be on business, we're still gonna have to

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Speaker 1: wait and see the US actions in the meantime to

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Speaker 1: revoke various special treatments privileges under the Hong Kong Democracy

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Speaker 1: Act and the special treatment that has been afforded to

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong since then. UH also don't have immediate clear

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Speaker 1: ramifications for business. It really is just a matter of

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Speaker 1: how how specifically they end up being applied. So we know,

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Speaker 1: for instance, that there are going to be VISA restrictions

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Speaker 1: on certain Chinese officials, and we don't know who those

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Speaker 1: officials are going to be. We know that there may

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Speaker 1: be sanctions, but who will the sanctions to be applied

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Speaker 1: to and how will trying to react to that? And

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Speaker 1: we know, um that there is going to be an

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Speaker 1: adjustment of ex quote controlled policies so that they um

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Speaker 1: there are no special carve outs for Hong Kong anymore.

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Speaker 1: But beyond that, you know, we're still kind of playing

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Speaker 1: a waiting game. One good piece of News. We do

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Speaker 1: understand from conversations with the administration that at least for now,

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Speaker 1: they objective is simply to increase pressure on aging and

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Speaker 1: to limit the impact on Hong Kong residents some US

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Speaker 1: companies at the same time. So you know, there are

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Speaker 1: a couple of drastics things that might happen under the

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen Hong Kong Autonomy Act, now that we've got

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Speaker 1: the State Department deciding that Hong Kong isn't sufficiently autonomous.

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Speaker 1: The biggest one is from our view, that the President

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Speaker 1: could decide to declare an emergency and under the International

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Speaker 1: Emergency Economic Powers Act, say that the dollar and the

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong dollar are no longer freely, which would change

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Speaker 1: the way that Hong Kong's dollar is pegged and would

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Speaker 1: hurt the financial system and the stability of Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: is a place to do. That's where I want to focus.

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Speaker 1: That's where I want to focus. You don't think it's

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Speaker 1: in the cards yet, but what let's let's go over that.

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Speaker 1: So the State's Department and the Treasury Department, Monution, Pompeo Secretary,

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Speaker 1: Monution Secretary of Papeo, you can get their ross. They

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Speaker 1: can get their heads together and they can do what

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Speaker 1: and and it would and it would cause some financial

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Speaker 1: insta ability in in the in which markets, in the

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong markets. So basically, for a very long time now,

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong's dollar has been pegged to the US dollar,

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Speaker 1: which has been a significant source of UH financial stability

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Speaker 1: in Hong Kong. And if the President, because because there's

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Speaker 1: been this decision that Hong Kong is no longer sufficiently

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Speaker 1: autonomous to merit special status under US law, the President

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Speaker 1: could declare an emergency and under his sanctioning powers under

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Speaker 1: the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or AIPA, he could dictate, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he could dictate that the the US dollar is no

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Speaker 1: longer freely convertible with the Hong Kong dollar. That would

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Speaker 1: make it very hard for the Hong Kong dollar to

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Speaker 1: remain packed to the U s dollar. And if that

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Speaker 1: peg were to dissolve, then that would make it hard

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Speaker 1: for Hong Kong to maintain the sort of reliable financial

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Speaker 1: stability that it has had. But again, I don't think

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Speaker 1: that we um see that around the corner at all. Alright,

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Speaker 1: fascinating One more question for you and UH Ashton she's

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Speaker 1: Senior Director of Government Affairs of the U. S. China

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Speaker 1: Business Council, So appreciative of your time. We talked about

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Speaker 1: the economics in terms of what happened from an economic standpoint,

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Speaker 1: but just the symbolism of the last twenty four hours, uh,

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Speaker 1: and what this means for US China relationships and what

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Speaker 1: it means for the pro democracy hon Connors who have

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Speaker 1: been you know, really just in many ways profiles encourage

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Speaker 1: as they've used their live risk danger and the tension

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Speaker 1: now really just upside down as a result of this.

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Speaker 1: What the Communist Party would say is a national security law,

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Speaker 1: but what others wouldn't clarify it as much. So what

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Speaker 1: does it mean for this moment from a historical context? Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think you know, it's a sad day

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Speaker 1: for US China religions. It's a sad day, uh for

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Speaker 1: Hong Kong. I don't think that anyone really wants to

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Speaker 1: see the situation that's unfolding and UH, and I'm afraid

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Speaker 1: that you know, all of this is among numerous developments

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Speaker 1: in the U. S. China relationship UH and underground in

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Speaker 1: China that are going to make it more and more

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Speaker 1: difficult for the commercial relationship to being navigated in a

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Speaker 1: healthy and sustainable way. And so that's where we are.

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Speaker 1: That's where we are. And Ashton, Senior Director of Government

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Speaker 1: Affairs at the US China Business Council, I very much

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Speaker 1: appreciate your time and your insights. I'm let's reset here.

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Speaker 1: I'm Kevin's of course, anytime, let's re set here. I'm

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Speaker 1: Kevin severally, Chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. We are following multiple fronts tonight, including international

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Speaker 1: relations as it relates to the U S. China Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong dynamic, and of course what's been going on on

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Speaker 1: Capitol Hill, virtually as Treasury Secretary Stephen Manuan and a

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Speaker 1: Chair J. Powell testifying before the House Financial Services Committee,

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Speaker 1: and then in contrast, Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation's top

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Speaker 1: infectious diseases control expert, also testifying before Congress and issuing

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Speaker 1: a stark warning, a stark warning about uncertainty in the

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Speaker 1: path to recovery that lies ahead. Our next guest is

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Speaker 1: an expert in Texas, where this has researched, but also

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Speaker 1: of course in the economy. He is a great friend

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Speaker 1: of the program. His name is George C. He is

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Speaker 1: CEO of Annendale Capital, a Texas businessman, and a senior

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Speaker 1: advisor to Marko Rubio presidential campaign. George, what has it

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Speaker 1: been like in the past couple of days in Texas

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Speaker 1: where you are as the virus has continued to rise

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Speaker 1: despite some of the optimism that we've seen in the economy.

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Speaker 1: You know, Kevin, great to be back, love being on

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Speaker 1: your show, as you know, thank you. I think that

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Speaker 1: it's really there's so much fear out there and so

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Speaker 1: much unsettled, and so many people are disturbed, and they've

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Speaker 1: been in isolation too long, and it's affecting their quality

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Speaker 1: of life and everything else. And I think everybody hits

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Speaker 1: the panic button a little too fast. I looked at

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Speaker 1: the stats and Texas ranks fifteen in depths for states. Now.

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Speaker 1: One death is too many, But we are seeing a

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Speaker 1: rash down here and outbreak, which is predictable with all

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Speaker 1: the protests. Um people people think it's just because everybody's

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Speaker 1: going back to bars and and going back to work,

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Speaker 1: and that's part of it, for sure. More testing is

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Speaker 1: part of it, but it's also these protests with thousands

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Speaker 1: and thousands of people have had to have been a

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Speaker 1: huge incubator for the virus. But on the flip side,

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Speaker 1: on the positive side, we're really not seeing near the

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Speaker 1: level of deaths down here as we're seeing in other places,

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Speaker 1: and we seem to be be getting more and more

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Speaker 1: effective at treating the bug. And I think Houston's wondering. Texas,

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Speaker 1: I would point to, is really league catastrophically difficult right

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Speaker 1: now because they're filling up their I TU beds, they're

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Speaker 1: running out of space. I expect the pivot and react well,

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Speaker 1: but but us having to close bars and and and

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Speaker 1: ramp back restaurant capacilor it's discouraging. But it's one step

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Speaker 1: in a long process, you know, And it is really interesting.

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Speaker 1: I got some friends out in your neck of the woods,

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Speaker 1: and I was talking to one of them the other night,

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Speaker 1: and I was saying, you know, we lived like that

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Speaker 1: for for a while while you guys had the luxury

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Speaker 1: of having things open. Uh, So, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I was talking with a Democrat earlier today who said

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Speaker 1: it's not that it's a second wave in Texas and

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Speaker 1: said they haven't hit their first wave, you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: so I don't know, I want to go macro for

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Speaker 1: a second with George see the CEO of and and

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Speaker 1: del Capital. Every economist is saying that it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a stepped up recovery, and what that means is

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Speaker 1: that the recovery will plateau either at the end of

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Speaker 1: Q three or the beginning of Q four, the timing

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Speaker 1: of which with November three election day rights mac in

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Speaker 1: there could have a lot of implications on how independent

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Speaker 1: voters and spin voters are going to vote. What do

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Speaker 1: you foresee the based on your expertise, how do you

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Speaker 1: foresee the recovery going? Um, do you believe in a

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Speaker 1: smusha step up? Are you? I mean? What do you what?

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Speaker 1: What are your metrics telling us? Yeah, that's that's that's

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Speaker 1: the twenty trillion dollar question right in terms of who

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have as president and who's gonna be controlling

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Speaker 1: the Senate and all those kind of things, because because

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Speaker 1: I have a huge impact on how people Americans steal

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Speaker 1: psychologically when they're going to pull the lever for one

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Speaker 1: guy or another guy. And it's completely unpredictable right now

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Speaker 1: that the signs from the stock market and the signs

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Speaker 1: from the Fed and the executive branch with all the

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Speaker 1: stimulus and everything else, are pretty darn good that we're

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Speaker 1: coming back pretty effectively. But what we see tremendous signs

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Speaker 1: of that within four months? Maybe maybe not. It's it's

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Speaker 1: super uncertain, and it can take us years too to

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Speaker 1: recalibrate our country. And some industries will never be the same,

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Speaker 1: some will be quite a bit stronger, can be quite

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Speaker 1: a bit weaker. Can I jump in there? Did the

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Speaker 1: did the models that that everyone's using did a factor

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Speaker 1: in the closures that we're seeing now in Texas, in Florida,

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Speaker 1: New York having new guidelines for quarantining. Did the models

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Speaker 1: factor that in? Or did what we're seeing now in

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Speaker 1: the uptick in certain states catch people off guard? I

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Speaker 1: don't think anybody who's paying any attention it should not

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Speaker 1: have copped him off guard. Any time more more people

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Speaker 1: interacting with each other out in public, you're you're gonna

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Speaker 1: have a rash of additional spreading, just because there's so

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Speaker 1: many people who are asymptomatic with this bug. So you

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Speaker 1: don't think The reason I'm asking it at, George is

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Speaker 1: because what I'm hearing from you is that the uptick

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Speaker 1: and the barrage of you know, new cases in Texas,

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Speaker 1: new cases in Florida, and new cases in New York.

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Speaker 1: The barrage of that is not factoring into the pace

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Speaker 1: of the recovery. Come Q three or Q four not

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Speaker 1: not in my state for sure, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: in a lot of the rest of the country. I

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Speaker 1: think we're done going in the bunk or and being

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Speaker 1: being socially isolated it all the time. I think people

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Speaker 1: are gonna get back to work and we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to learn to live with a lot more people catching

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Speaker 1: this bug and more deaths and and more fear. But

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Speaker 1: we're going to get through this. And as said, as

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Speaker 1: we get a treatment that's highly effective, I think that's

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Speaker 1: really spelling the end of it. Everybody's saying we gotta

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Speaker 1: wait on a vaccine. I think they're being overly optimistic

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Speaker 1: because we're not sure we're gonna come up with a vaccine,

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Speaker 1: much less how quickly will come up with one. We

430
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 1: just need some kind of treatment that that that obviates

431
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,119
Speaker 1: the risk of death and brings people back to normal

432
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 1: as quickly as possible. That's what we're really waiting on.

433
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 1: That's going to be the key Meanwhile, how do you

434
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: think President Trump's re election campaign efforts are going. Uh,

435
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: he's you know, trailing nationally. I don't want to focus

436
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 1: on national polls, but even in the swing state polls

437
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 1: he's trailing, lost some ground amongst senior citizens. What does

438
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: he have to do to recover? I think people really

439
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 1: forget their history and they forget how wildly these kind

440
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: of elections can swing. In Gerald Ford went into the

441
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 1: fall thirty two points behind Jimmy Carter and only lost

442
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 1: by a point and a half. In George H. W. Bush,

443
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 1: I believe, was down seventeen points to Michael Ducocus after

444
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: the Democratic Convention anyone going away and had a huge

445
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 1: electoral landslide. So I don't think the president's dead on arrival.

446
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: I think he's still got a decent chance of pulling

447
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: it out, especially in the swing stakes, which are really

448
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 1: close because we really are a fifty fifty country. But

449
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 1: to win, he's got to somehow get off his his

450
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: his grievance soapbox where he's always uh talking about all

451
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:31,719
Speaker 1: his enemies and all the people that are against him,

452
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 1: how wrong they are, and start talking more about where

453
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: he's going to take the country. The next four years

454
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: and why that vision for America is better than the

455
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 1: one Joe Biden's out there slinging around from his basement.

456
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: So he's got time to recover, for sure, But the

457
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: trajectory has got to change dramatically, because that the trajectory

458
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: he's on right now is one downhill slide. It's it's

459
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: been getting worse for three months straight, and they've gotta flip.

460
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,479
Speaker 1: They've got to flip that around, all right. And then

461
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 1: what do you think in terms of the dynamics of

462
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 1: the down ballot races? And I know you chronicle all

463
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 1: of this over at Ndel Capital, but when you look

464
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: specifically at the Senate, you think it's gonna flip. I'd

465
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 1: give it a sixty percent chance is gonna flip. I

466
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: think there's several states, and a lot of it depends

467
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: on how strong Trump runs in certain states. I think

468
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: Martha McSally in Arizona is almost certainly gonna lose. I

469
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 1: think Susan Collins is in real jeopardy. I think the

470
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,360
Speaker 1: Republicans have been wanting to flip the Michigan shan at Sea.

471
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: Unless the President wins Michigan again, there's no chance of

472
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: that Um, it really doesn't look too hot right now.

473
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: But like I said, four months is a lifetime in politics,

474
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 1: and we may have a very different playing field in November.

475
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 1: And I think you've got to assess to how dismayed

476
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 1: or how dispirited Republicans are gonna be here. They can

477
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 1: actually show up and vote if they show up in

478
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 1: a title way of of enthusiasm for the president and

479
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 1: in some of their Senate candidates, they might barely hold

480
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 1: onto the Senate, but it's it's gonna be really tight,

481
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 1: and a lot of races are gonna tell the tale

482
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:55,959
Speaker 1: that are within the margin of ARAA. We didn't even

483
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 1: talk about North Carolina, and I don't think Senator Tillis

484
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: is in very good shape there either. So there's just

485
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 1: a lot of weakness out there. You can't point to

486
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,199
Speaker 1: anything but Doug Jones Senden sat in Alabama. That's a

487
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 1: Republican flip where there's there's a good six or seven

488
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 1: Republican health seats right now that are in jeopardy, so

489
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 1: that the math right now is not encouraging. Hey, George,

490
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 1: before I let you go, it's fourth of July. This weekend,

491
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 1: I was asking the last guest about barbecue. She was

492
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 1: saying that the best barbecues in Memphis. I take it.

493
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 1: A Texan like yourself is gonna disagree. Oh that's so funny. Um.

494
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 1: I love Memphis, and I love pork ribs in Memphis.

495
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: There dry, But yes, we Texas barbecues of course better

496
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: and of course superior. But where give me a place?

497
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 1: Give me a place in Texas. I've eaten my way

498
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 1: across this country. But what give me a place? Where

499
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: in Texas is the best barbecue? George, I'll give you

500
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 1: three y Knows Barbecue in Lexington, Texas. Uh, Franklin's Barbecue

501
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 1: in Austin, Texas. And Louis Mueller's Arbeque and Taylor, Texas.

502
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 1: So three are spectacular. All right, We're gonna go there

503
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: one day. George, George c CEO of Vannondale Capital, Texas, businessman,

504
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: BBQUE expert and senior advisor Tomart. Oh wait, George, are

505
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: you still there? Yep? Is Marco Rubio gonna run in?

506
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 1: I've read an Examiner article. Oh he wants to really badly,

507
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: But so does his his peer in the Senate, rich God,

508
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 1: and so does Governor to Sant. It's all three of

509
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: those guys. Well, those Florridians incredibly crowded field. Next time around,

510
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 1: those Florridians, buckle up. I would be surprised if if

511
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: Rubio or Senator crews make a strong run in it again.

512
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 1: I think there's time's passed. Probably. Wow. The former senior

513
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 1: advisor to Marco Rubio is sixteen presidential campaign, George c

514
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 1: lots to gott get through there. I could talk to George.

515
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: George is one of those people that you could talk

516
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 1: to as is as is our next guest that I

517
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 1: could talk to over barbecue or over hoges for like forever.

518
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: Adam Hodge, Senior vice president Ariel Investments. He used to

519
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: work at the Treasury Department under the Obama administration. Uh, Adam,

520
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 1: where's the best place for barbecue? Before I talk policy?

521
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 1: I can Christine's rolling your eyes in the group chat.

522
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: I mean, it's the best place for barbecue in DC

523
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: has got to be actually on the the be a

524
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 1: big green egg in my backyard where I'm making making

525
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 1: ribs and uh and in brisket. So that's probably the

526
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,959
Speaker 1: best place in DC. Alright, good, all right, Adam, did

527
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: you see the Biden press conference today? I did? I

528
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: did it seems like the Biden team in the Biden

529
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: campaign is really going on offense and the whole host

530
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: of front okay, but I I was, I was noticing

531
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 1: some some dynamics. Right at the top of the pressor,

532
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: former VP Joe Biden gets out in front and he says, folks,

533
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be taking questions, and no one knew that

534
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: was gonna happen. And he kept going, thanks, going and going,

535
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: and the aids were like wrapping up, and he was like, no,

536
00:30:57,840 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 1: I want to talk. I got the impression from the

537
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: presser the Biden wants to be talking and he wants

538
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: to get out there, despite the criticism that his team

539
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 1: is getting for keeping him hidden in the bunker in

540
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 1: the basement. Now they're saying it's a strategy, make it

541
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: a referendum election, not a choice election. But you know,

542
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 1: at some point you gotta hear from the candidate. Am

543
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 1: I wrong? And you you are are right that at

544
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: some point you have to hear from the candidate. I

545
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 1: think right now what you're seeing from from Biden, uh

546
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 1: and in their campaign is just really trying to get

547
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 1: to uh. What is a full throated strategy for doing

548
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: so in an effective way and right and you can't

549
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: that right now, it's not it's not working well. Uh.

550
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: This is natural for the candidate to think through, to

551
00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: want to be out there, to want to make the

552
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: best case for him himself. UM. And so I think

553
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: what you saw today was a little bit of you know,

554
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 1: uh kind of Um. He was out out loose until

555
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: he's he's going to try to to you know, go

556
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: as far as as he possibly can. Um. But all

557
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 1: in all, I think you know, people and to think

558
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 1: and look for the Biden gap, but I don't don't

559
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 1: think that there were really that many today. He seemed

560
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 1: pretty disciplined. Um and uh. And I think it just goes,

561
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: it goes to show it's it's always easier when you're

562
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 1: on offense and when you're able to run an effective

563
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: message that's on your turns, not on when you're not

564
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,719
Speaker 1: on your heels. I thought it was interesting Adam Hodge,

565
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: who's worked at Treasury, who has worked all over the

566
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 1: Obama administration now he's an s VP at Aerial Investments.

567
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 1: I thought it was interesting for Biden to say, essentially,

568
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:34,959
Speaker 1: and I'm paraphrasing, you can't you can't have a choice

569
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: of beating the virus or having an economy. In order

570
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: to recover the economy and to make the economy stronger,

571
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 1: you've got to first defeat the virus. I thought that

572
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: was an interesting way of framing it, because Trump world

573
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: has has chosen to say, we've got to recover, we've

574
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: got to reopen, we've got to research, we've got to

575
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 1: come back, and Biden saying, no, if we want to recover, first,

576
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,080
Speaker 1: we have to beat the virus. But just look to

577
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 1: states like Texas and Florida who thought they could reopen

578
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: early for fresh evidence that trying to have an economy

579
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: uh and that is thriving and open while the virus

580
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 1: is still raging is just not possible. And so you're

581
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 1: not seeing them closed down bars and restaurants in uh

582
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: in Texas and Florida. That's that's really um, you know,

583
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 1: proven to be uh you know where you're going to

584
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: see a slow down in their economy and so UM,

585
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: I think what you what you have to have to

586
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 1: hope for is that folks start wearing their masks and

587
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 1: taking this seriously and and really, um, you know, we

588
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: can we can kind of come out of the other side. UM.

589
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 1: In the next three months once we get the virus contained,

590
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 1: because other countries around the world are showing us how

591
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 1: it depth it can be done. Okay. I meanwhile, the

592
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: Russia bounty. I do want to get your take on

593
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: what has been going on the continuing story of the

594
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 1: Russia bounty. Republicans are denying this, Democrats are seizing on this.

595
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 1: Do you think is going to play in November or

596
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: do you think it's just the latest spasm of another

597
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: investigation and maybe Americans have investigation fatigue or maybe they don't.

598
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 1: Maybe I don't know. I didn't take a position. I

599
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: think that that more than anything else, that the virus

600
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 1: and the economic follow is going to be the first, second,

601
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: and third topic on the agenda, and I think it

602
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: ties into to one of the messages and topics that

603
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 1: Democrats want to focus on, which is healthcare. If you've

604
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: heard me say it before of a Democrat, you know,

605
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: going on offense on healthcare is really the ticket because

606
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: people can understand that and they can make an attach

607
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 1: to their own livelihood. And certainly now that we've step

608
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: ourselves into a pandemic that has had cascading economic effects

609
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 1: for for people who then lost their job, and lost

610
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: their healthcare. It really puts the stark choice in front

611
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 1: of the people pretty easily. A minute less than a

612
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 1: minute left. Who Who's he gonna pick? For Veep. I

613
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: gave you a top three, which I know is a

614
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 1: little bit of a cup, but it's it's it's Kamala

615
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 1: Valve Demmings are the I think the top two, and

616
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 1: then it'll be actually, I'll give you top two. It

617
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 1: will be between one of those two. Interesting. I hey,

618
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 1: I agree with you. Actually uh and then all right,

619
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 1: Adam Hodge's senior vice president Aerial Investments, thank you so much.

620
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 1: And just remember former FED chair Janet Yelling. This is

621
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 1: all my radar, and I wanted to get it in.

622
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 1: Actually said today that another DoD Frank might be necessary.

623
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 1: Former FED chair Janet Ellen. Wow, Buckle up, folks. I'm

624
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 1: Kevin Cirelli, cheap Washington correspondent for Womber TV and Radio.

625
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, and thanks for listening to me ramble

626
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 1: about barbecue to Bloomberg