WEBVTT - Bloomberg Wall Street Week: Thompson, Corwin, Goolsbee

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. What's the state of

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<v Speaker 1>corporate governance? Its deficit is a real issue. The US

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<v Speaker 1>economy continues to send mixed signals to the financial stories

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<v Speaker 1>that keep our world fed, action to con concerns over

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<v Speaker 1>dollar liquidity, and encouraging China data. The five hundred wealthiest

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<v Speaker 1>people in the world. Through the eyes of the most

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<v Speaker 1>influential voices Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, star Ward CEO,

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin Johnson sec Chairman j Clayton. Bloomberg wool Street Week

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<v Speaker 1>with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio, who knew equities can

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<v Speaker 1>go down as well as up as we head into

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<v Speaker 1>an uncertain election and companies continue their struggle with the coronavirus.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. The

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<v Speaker 1>White House was pleased by the strong jobs numbers this week,

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<v Speaker 1>but there is still weakness under the headline numbers of

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<v Speaker 1>one point three seven million jobs added. We asked Austin Goulsbury,

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<v Speaker 1>professor of economics at the University Chicago Booths School of Business,

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<v Speaker 1>what the numbers really show us about the economy. We've

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<v Speaker 1>had a nice rebound of the what were the temporary layoffs.

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<v Speaker 1>So again, if you look at this report, you've got

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<v Speaker 1>strong job growth, especially strong in temporary sensus employment from

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<v Speaker 1>the government that was three something thousands. And then the

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<v Speaker 1>two major sectors of job growth are retail and leisure

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<v Speaker 1>and hospitality. Where you saw the giant increases of temporary layoffs,

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<v Speaker 1>those people are mostly now all the way back or

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<v Speaker 1>pretty close to back. The question is for the permanent layoffs,

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<v Speaker 1>can we get them back to work? And if we

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<v Speaker 1>recovered to something like half where we were before, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not really great. And so I think on the

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<v Speaker 1>political side, we're gonna be in this dynamic where representatives

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<v Speaker 1>of the Trump administration are clearly going to say, well, look,

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<v Speaker 1>we're having strong months, and I think other analysts are

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<v Speaker 1>gonna look at it and say, yeah, but the strength

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<v Speaker 1>is getting weaker every month, and we're not even getting

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<v Speaker 1>remotely close to to where we were even before the

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<v Speaker 1>before the COVID recession began. So Austin, in your estimation,

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<v Speaker 1>what was it going to take to get us to

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<v Speaker 1>the goal we all share reposis of Democrats alike, I

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<v Speaker 1>really getting back to or close to full employment. Is

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<v Speaker 1>it a matter of that fiscal stimulus that seems to

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<v Speaker 1>be hung up in Congress. Is it a matter of

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<v Speaker 1>really getting our arms around the coronavirus? Yet? Look, I

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<v Speaker 1>think everything has to do with that virus. As I've

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<v Speaker 1>said from the beginning, the viruses the boss, and the

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<v Speaker 1>first rule of virus economics is that the only way

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<v Speaker 1>to fix the economics is they get control of the virus.

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<v Speaker 1>You've seen that in other countries where they've now gotten

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<v Speaker 1>they've slowed the spread of the virus dramatically more than

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<v Speaker 1>we have, and their economies are rebounding actually faster than

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<v Speaker 1>than ours is. So hopefully we can get control of that.

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<v Speaker 1>And if we do, I think that we could get

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<v Speaker 1>on a faster path back to where we were and

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<v Speaker 1>growing like we were before. If we don't, Look, we

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<v Speaker 1>need relief, uh, but we shouldn't get ourselves that relief

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<v Speaker 1>and rescue payments trying to keep people from being evicted.

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<v Speaker 1>Um is going to fix the economy. It's not. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we gotta we gotta get the engine going again if

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<v Speaker 1>we If we don't, and we all want to really

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<v Speaker 1>beat this virus, but if we don't get the vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>if we don't get to a world where we can

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<v Speaker 1>go back to something like normal again, Do we need

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<v Speaker 1>to lock down, because that's something that's certainly the problems.

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<v Speaker 1>Last week accused Vice President Biden of saying that basically

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<v Speaker 1>we should lock down the country. What is his view

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<v Speaker 1>on that. Can we keep going with the economy, even

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<v Speaker 1>with social distancing and masks and washing our hands and

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<v Speaker 1>things without actually defeating the virus? Well, I don't speak

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<v Speaker 1>for the Vice president. You know, you know you you

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<v Speaker 1>would want to ask them what their view is. I

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<v Speaker 1>think other countries have shown us that you don't need

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<v Speaker 1>to have kay there's no vaccine in Germany, there's no

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine in Australia. It's not in New Zealand, it's not

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<v Speaker 1>in Taiwan, it's not in a whole bunch of countries

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<v Speaker 1>where they have been able through public health measures, whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's mass whether it's social distancing, whether it's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of testing so that you can get the people that

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<v Speaker 1>are contagious out of the economy, so you don't have

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<v Speaker 1>to shut down everyone. I don't think you have to

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<v Speaker 1>have universal lockdowns. Uh, you just have to be smart

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<v Speaker 1>about it. You've got to follow what works, and thus

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<v Speaker 1>far we're mostly not following what works. And we got

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of mixed messages coming out. We'll address that

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<v Speaker 1>quite specifically. If it's a matter of doing it better,

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<v Speaker 1>being smarter, and addressing a virus while it's with us,

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<v Speaker 1>What would a President Biden do which would be materially

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<v Speaker 1>different from what President Trump has done. President Biden has

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<v Speaker 1>laid out at least twenty step detailed plan on the

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<v Speaker 1>public health side of how you slow the rate of

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<v Speaker 1>spread of the virus. And I'm not an epidemiologist or

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<v Speaker 1>public health esk bert, I would refer everyone to those uh,

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<v Speaker 1>to those documents. But the center of the of the

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<v Speaker 1>federal response has got to be a clear, consistent approach

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<v Speaker 1>coming from the very top from the President himself, who

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<v Speaker 1>has clearly at many points downgraded what he perceives as

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<v Speaker 1>the danger of this virus and said it's gonna disappear

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<v Speaker 1>by a miracle. Initially said, oh, we have virtually no cases.

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<v Speaker 1>It's gonna go to none. It's it's under lockdown. Don't

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<v Speaker 1>worry about it. You don't need to wear masks. He

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<v Speaker 1>himself won't wear masks. I think that the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>approach got hundreds of thousands of people killed in this

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<v Speaker 1>country that did not need to die. That's what the

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<v Speaker 1>public health experts are saying that if we had moved earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>with consistent with a consistent approach from the federal government,

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<v Speaker 1>and done the testing at the beginning, we would be

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<v Speaker 1>in a lot better spot. But it's not too late.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what I don't understand. If we start more significant

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<v Speaker 1>testing and more significant mask wearing in public and and

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<v Speaker 1>in these places where people are in crowded conditions, we

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<v Speaker 1>spaced them out, we can get the rate of spread

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<v Speaker 1>of this virus down below one in their mathematical terminology.

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<v Speaker 1>And in countries where they've done that, which is almost

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<v Speaker 1>every rich country in the world, they've been able to

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<v Speaker 1>bring their economies back. That was Austin Goulsby, former chairman

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<v Speaker 1>of the National Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama

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<v Speaker 1>and now an advisor to the Biden Harris campaign. Coming up.

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<v Speaker 1>We've lost all those jobs because of the coronavirus and

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<v Speaker 1>the shutdowns it triggered. Dr Steve Corwin of New York

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<v Speaker 1>Presbyterian has fought the virus successfully but says we're not

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<v Speaker 1>out of the woods yet. That's next on Wall Street

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<v Speaker 1>Week on Bloombood. This is Bloomberg Street Week with David

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<v Speaker 1>Weston from Bloomberg Radio. First it was New York and

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<v Speaker 1>New Jersey, then California and Texas, and now the coronavirus

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<v Speaker 1>crisis has moved on to the Midwest. The question is

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<v Speaker 1>what comes next and what can we do to make

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<v Speaker 1>sure we can get the economy going again safely, which

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<v Speaker 1>is what we asked Dr Steve Corwin, CEO of New

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<v Speaker 1>York Presbyterian, the largest hospital group in the New York area. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the moving average across the country is moving

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<v Speaker 1>down and that that is good news. I think, as

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<v Speaker 1>we've talked about before, David, as you start to open,

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<v Speaker 1>you're gonna tight trade infections. You have to be capable

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<v Speaker 1>of sort of dealing with those outbreaks, which is why

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<v Speaker 1>testing becomes so important and contact tracing to try to

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<v Speaker 1>keep a lid on this thing until we're capable of

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<v Speaker 1>treating it and having a vaccine for it. So the

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<v Speaker 1>moving average going down is positive. Some of these hot

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<v Speaker 1>spots obviously are a problem. The opening of colleges, the

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<v Speaker 1>the opening of schools presents a challenge, Indoor dining presents

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<v Speaker 1>a challenge, opening theaters presents a challenge, and we have

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<v Speaker 1>to be mindful of that so that we can scale

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<v Speaker 1>it back if it looks like we're having an outbreak

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<v Speaker 1>in a particular area. In New York, we're down to

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<v Speaker 1>about two of our COVID peak, which is very comforting.

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<v Speaker 1>But now we're gonna look at New York City schools reopening. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>there's gonna be a push for more indoor venues as

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<v Speaker 1>the weather gets colder. We're gonna have influenza start in

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<v Speaker 1>the fall. So I think seeing that moving average go

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<v Speaker 1>down and seeing the daily infections go down below the

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<v Speaker 1>ten thou numbers what Dr Fauci has said would be

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<v Speaker 1>comforting if we could get to that by October. So

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of challenges. Are we up to meeting the challenges?

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<v Speaker 1>How are we doing on this because it looks like

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<v Speaker 1>we may have to manage this disease for a while

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<v Speaker 1>before there's this magical cure called a vaccine. Can't count

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<v Speaker 1>on that and we reopen our economy? Can we reopen

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<v Speaker 1>our schools to some extent prudently? I hope that we can. David,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that we missed the boat a little, quite frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of not tamping down the infection number. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we had the debate over masks social distancing. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think that helped us as a country. We politicized it,

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<v Speaker 1>which was unfortunate. But I think that maintenance of masks,

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<v Speaker 1>maintenance of social distancing, getting the infection number dawn will

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<v Speaker 1>allow us to cautiously reopen the economy as we're doing. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>we have to reopen the economy. We can't still. We

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<v Speaker 1>can't say still forever. But you want to do it

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<v Speaker 1>in as prudent a manner as possible. Uh. You read

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<v Speaker 1>in the Financial Times today as well as other venues

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<v Speaker 1>that Germany thinks that they're having a V shaped recovery.

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<v Speaker 1>Part of that is because they were able to control

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic to a greater extent than than than we have.

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<v Speaker 1>Um So I think that the two go hand and glove.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we making good progress on the testing front? You

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned testing, and it seems like almost every day we

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<v Speaker 1>have a new report, like Abbot Labs has something out

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<v Speaker 1>that texts fifteen minutes, it doesn't cost very much money.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we making substantial progress on testing? Not as much

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<v Speaker 1>as I would like. We still have issues with reagent

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<v Speaker 1>shortages and things of that nature, so we can't do

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<v Speaker 1>as much testing as we would like. But let's just

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the point of care testing for for for

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<v Speaker 1>a moment um. Some of the point of care tests

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<v Speaker 1>can do a test every fifteen minutes. That's for tests

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<v Speaker 1>an hour um. The machines that we have uh made

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<v Speaker 1>by sepied Ross and others, we can do batch testing

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<v Speaker 1>where we can do thousands of tests a day. So

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<v Speaker 1>if we had the reagents for it with these with

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<v Speaker 1>these machines, we can do turnaround in less than twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four hours, and we can get these things done quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>The public ought to be mindful that point of care

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<v Speaker 1>testing sounds great, but ultimately you want to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to do a high volume of tests on a frequent basis.

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<v Speaker 1>You want a low enough level of an infection so

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<v Speaker 1>that you know if you identifying infection, you can do

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<v Speaker 1>contact racing and then test the contact traces in a

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<v Speaker 1>three to five day period to make sure they're not infected.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the key. I thought it was unfortunate that the

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<v Speaker 1>CDC came out with guidelines for less testing. You need

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<v Speaker 1>more testing um, and I don't think there's much dispute,

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<v Speaker 1>at least in the scientific community and the people I've

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<v Speaker 1>been speaking to about that. Well, I wonder about that.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you're a doctor, you head up one of

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<v Speaker 1>the major hospitals in the country. You can sort of

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<v Speaker 1>sift through this. For those of us out here in

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<v Speaker 1>the real world, how do we figure out what the

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<v Speaker 1>truth is? Because, as you say, c DC came out

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<v Speaker 1>and said you don't need to test people who are asymptomatic.

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<v Speaker 1>We had a flurry of people experts come out and say, no,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not right at all. Are they undermining their own

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<v Speaker 1>credibility of some extent? And then we have this condalescent

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<v Speaker 1>plasma thing where the government says it's just fine now

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<v Speaker 1>we're here, and I says, well, I'm not sure we know.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was very unfortunate and it does undermine

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<v Speaker 1>the credibility of of the f d A and the CDC.

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<v Speaker 1>The f d A mistake was egregious, that should never

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<v Speaker 1>have happened. You're talking about a subset of patients, and

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<v Speaker 1>you're talking about a misrepresentation of the statistics, even according

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<v Speaker 1>to the people who did the study. Um and that

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<v Speaker 1>then so what are the consequences of that? Then then

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<v Speaker 1>gives everyone to say I want convalescent plasma as opposed

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<v Speaker 1>to let's study this more rigorously and see whether it

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<v Speaker 1>works or not. And we got into that same conundrum

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<v Speaker 1>with hydroxy chloroquine. So I think that was very unfortunate.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the CDC um you know, uh, quite frankly,

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<v Speaker 1>that was unfortunate as well. The simple answer is, we

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<v Speaker 1>need to rigorously test various therapies to see if they work.

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<v Speaker 1>We need to do the rigorous testing on the phase

0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:56.920
<v Speaker 1>three of the vaccine trials to make sure that if

0:12:56.960 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 1>we're going to inoculate and mass inoculate, that that we're

0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:04.480
<v Speaker 1>and there can't be any appearance that this is politicized,

0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:08.520
<v Speaker 1>either for the President's benefit or the or or the

0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 1>benefit of Mr Biden. It's got to be that we're

0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:16.480
<v Speaker 1>in this together and that we're trying to to improve

0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:18.520
<v Speaker 1>the public health. So I don't think we're in a

0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 1>good place in terms of that. You've got now, this

0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.400
<v Speaker 1>is a Democrat Republican issue, and it should not be

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.240
<v Speaker 1>Dr Corey. You of course are a physician, and you

0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:29.600
<v Speaker 1>were chieve a medicine before you were CEO. But you

0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:32.319
<v Speaker 1>are CEO now and you've got a really big company,

0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.520
<v Speaker 1>a business that to run. You've said before that your

0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:37.880
<v Speaker 1>company may lose as much as a billion dollars out

0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:40.720
<v Speaker 1>of operating come because the coronavirus this year. How are

0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:43.520
<v Speaker 1>you doing financially? And in particular, there was a hundred

0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars appropriated in the Cares Act to go to hospitals.

0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 1>Did you see some of that money will lose uh

0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.400
<v Speaker 1>in the two to three hundred million dollar range through June.

0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.079
<v Speaker 1>And that's uh, far less than we would have lost

0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.560
<v Speaker 1>that we not received the Care's money. We've advocated that

0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:02.280
<v Speaker 1>the Medicare and answers for all hospitals around the country,

0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.880
<v Speaker 1>rural and otherwise be converted into grants that would help

0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:09.240
<v Speaker 1>as well. We still are anticipating a loss anywhere between

0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 1>seven hundred million and a billion dollars towards the end

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:15.560
<v Speaker 1>of the year. We do see our volumes coming back.

0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:21.040
<v Speaker 1>That's been very encouraging. Uh. The fact that again the

0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.600
<v Speaker 1>volumes are coming back, is completely coincident with the fact

0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:28.840
<v Speaker 1>that people feel safer. Um. That being said, I think

0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:32.440
<v Speaker 1>that um, you know, we're looking for a twenty that

0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:35.680
<v Speaker 1>will be rough, uh and we're hoping the twenty one

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.800
<v Speaker 1>will be better, and we're looking that that by twenty

0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:41.120
<v Speaker 1>two will be out of the worst of it from

0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:44.560
<v Speaker 1>from a from a perspective of a major institution. That

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 1>was Dr Steve Corwin, CEO of New York Presbyterian coming up.

0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:51.880
<v Speaker 1>A tsunami hit the news media over the last few years,

0:14:51.960 --> 0:14:54.960
<v Speaker 1>taking much of the newspaper industry with it. We talked

0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.000
<v Speaker 1>with the man who led The New York Times not

0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:00.600
<v Speaker 1>just to survive, but to thrive, Mark Thompson, It's CEO

0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:04.920
<v Speaker 1>through a remarkable and a remarkably challenging time. That's next

0:15:04.920 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 1>our Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:14.840
<v Speaker 1>Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. For all

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:18.640
<v Speaker 1>the difficulties experienced by most of the traditional newspaper business,

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:21.120
<v Speaker 1>the New York Times over the past eight years has

0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:24.040
<v Speaker 1>managed to embrace the future. And we asked it CEO

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:27.160
<v Speaker 1>Mark Thompson, how he went about doing it what we

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 1>decided to do. There were four revenue streams when when

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:33.680
<v Speaker 1>I arrived at the company still are today. Print advertising,

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 1>which once had been more than eighty percent of the

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 1>total revenue of the company have been print advertizing, print subscription,

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:44.120
<v Speaker 1>digital advertising, and digital subscription. And really my kind of

0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 1>bed I narrative on on digital subscription as the as

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 1>the revenue stream we should really grow, and indeed had

0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:55.920
<v Speaker 1>to grow, because ultimately, for different reasons, all of the

0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.840
<v Speaker 1>other revenue streams seemed to me were in trouble potentially

0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 1>and ultimately I even disappear. So we double down on

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:08.040
<v Speaker 1>the very simple idea of great journalism packaged effectively in

0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:12.560
<v Speaker 1>good digital products, which established a very close relationship with

0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:16.280
<v Speaker 1>people who are prepared to pay to get that journalism,

0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:20.120
<v Speaker 1>and that becoming really the bedrock of the entire future

0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:23.760
<v Speaker 1>of the company. And to do that, we invested in

0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:25.640
<v Speaker 1>our news room. We actually built the news room. We've

0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:28.920
<v Speaker 1>got hundred and fifty more journalists now than then when

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:31.280
<v Speaker 1>I walked into the building. And we also got smart

0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:35.040
<v Speaker 1>about digital product. We had hundreds of software engineers and

0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:40.200
<v Speaker 1>data scientists, machine learning people, and graphic designers and videographers

0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:42.840
<v Speaker 1>and and really worked on the digital product. And and

0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:44.960
<v Speaker 1>we've ended up with a kind of virtuous circle where

0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:47.960
<v Speaker 1>I think the content is as rich and and broaders

0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:51.160
<v Speaker 1>has ever been. It's much more effectively packaged up in products,

0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:53.520
<v Speaker 1>and people are flocking to buy the products as as

0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.240
<v Speaker 1>as new subscribers. So Mark, you described it as simple,

0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:59.200
<v Speaker 1>but it was far from conventional wisdom when you took

0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.400
<v Speaker 1>over I mean most newspaper people, as you and I

0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:04.119
<v Speaker 1>both know in the United States, and said, look at

0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:06.560
<v Speaker 1>we made the mistake early out of making this free

0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:09.280
<v Speaker 1>on the internet. There's no way we can charge with it.

0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:11.560
<v Speaker 1>With the possible exception of the Financial Times maybe the

0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:15.159
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Journal because it's especially business publication. So what

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:17.159
<v Speaker 1>you did may have been simple, but it was not

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:19.560
<v Speaker 1>what most people thought would work. That's true of my industry.

0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:22.359
<v Speaker 1>But if you step back, I mean read Hastings was

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:25.879
<v Speaker 1>thinking the same thought about about high quality TV and

0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:29.639
<v Speaker 1>in relation to Netflix. Daniel Eck and co at Spotify

0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:31.800
<v Speaker 1>were thinking the same about music, that there was a

0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:35.240
<v Speaker 1>way of getting great entertainment of great music to the

0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.199
<v Speaker 1>world's public, and enough people out there would pay for

0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:40.640
<v Speaker 1>it to make a great business. And really all we're

0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:44.080
<v Speaker 1>really doing I think we're part of a broader trend

0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:49.400
<v Speaker 1>towards direct digital subscription relationships with people who want really

0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.960
<v Speaker 1>good stuff, and that's a that's an entire sector which

0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.479
<v Speaker 1>is growing very rapidly, and in a way, it's a

0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:58.000
<v Speaker 1>little bit like the moment when cable TV arrived in

0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.920
<v Speaker 1>the US and suddenly the was a choice there was

0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:05.000
<v Speaker 1>a choice of something beyond regular broadcast TV television. And

0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.359
<v Speaker 1>I think that although it's true that the broadcast model

0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:11.120
<v Speaker 1>is happening to broadcast TV right now, is is post

0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:12.720
<v Speaker 1>growth and it is going to be very difficult to

0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:15.960
<v Speaker 1>stay even its current level. Um it turns out these

0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:19.440
<v Speaker 1>other forms of getting TV and music and news could grow.

0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:23.400
<v Speaker 1>There was once a really big market in in paid

0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:25.680
<v Speaker 1>news in America. And it wasn't just The New York Times.

0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:29.120
<v Speaker 1>It was local newspapers, it was metros, it was magazines.

0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.640
<v Speaker 1>Know that people paid billions and billions of dollars as

0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:36.520
<v Speaker 1>subscribers and buying buying these products from newsstands. There's no

0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:40.440
<v Speaker 1>reason why that market can't be recaptured. But how would

0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:42.920
<v Speaker 1>that happen? Marcus A practical markers. When you came in,

0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:45.720
<v Speaker 1>the New York Times still had a very robust newsroom

0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:48.879
<v Speaker 1>directed toward print, larger but very US newsroom. A lot

0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:51.479
<v Speaker 1>of newspapers across the country, these are regional as well

0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:53.639
<v Speaker 1>as local papers, really have had to cut back so

0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 1>far they've let those newsrooms go. Is it possible this

0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:59.359
<v Speaker 1>point to rebuild that. Can your model apply beyond the

0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.119
<v Speaker 1>New York Time? And I guess that's what I'm asking.

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:03.400
<v Speaker 1>And the answer is because so few people have even

0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:06.479
<v Speaker 1>tried it, I don't think we know. But but to me,

0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.720
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think there's one basic, big caveat which

0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:11.760
<v Speaker 1>is this is a kind of horse and buggy to

0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:16.480
<v Speaker 1>automobile moment, and that requires capital. You have to risk

0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:19.720
<v Speaker 1>some money, you have to invest to make the change.

0:19:19.920 --> 0:19:23.680
<v Speaker 1>But assuming someone wants to invest, I don't see at

0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:30.280
<v Speaker 1>all why if you rehire your journalists, rebuild that newsroom,

0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:34.080
<v Speaker 1>start doing great reporting, and start getting smart about how

0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:35.560
<v Speaker 1>you get it to the public while you can't really

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.280
<v Speaker 1>build a new business. I think the mistake made was

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:40.320
<v Speaker 1>thinking that you could kind of eke your way to

0:19:40.400 --> 0:19:44.080
<v Speaker 1>the digital future without putting any fresh money in. And

0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:46.880
<v Speaker 1>no one could do that. Nobody could take a to two,

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:50.879
<v Speaker 1>could take a a kind of horse carriage factory and

0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:54.640
<v Speaker 1>turn it into a car company without vast fresh investment.

0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:58.560
<v Speaker 1>And this is one of those periods in media, which

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:01.239
<v Speaker 1>is very capital intensive, requires lots of money. But for

0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:03.560
<v Speaker 1>people who prepared to put the money in, I think

0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:05.600
<v Speaker 1>there are great businesses to be built. But the other

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:08.320
<v Speaker 1>thing we saw was people take a look at Facebook

0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:10.840
<v Speaker 1>and Google and say they're so massive there are audience

0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:12.959
<v Speaker 1>is so large, we have no choice but to go

0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:15.400
<v Speaker 1>through them. We have to hitch our wagon to them,

0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:18.679
<v Speaker 1>even though they will have the direct relationship with our subscriber,

0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:21.359
<v Speaker 1>our customer. I mean even New York Times flirted with

0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:23.919
<v Speaker 1>that for a time. So is it possible for if

0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:25.560
<v Speaker 1>you do this directly, I mean, you have a direct

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:30.920
<v Speaker 1>relation to the subscriber. And we believe that although um

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:34.159
<v Speaker 1>uh digital social media, Facebook and the rest of it,

0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:37.840
<v Speaker 1>Google Search and all of these platforms are really important

0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:41.119
<v Speaker 1>in people finding our content, hearing about the Times and

0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:45.320
<v Speaker 1>making sure our journalism is really influential, that we really

0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:49.040
<v Speaker 1>needed a kind of trail of breadcrumbs from these other

0:20:49.080 --> 0:20:52.240
<v Speaker 1>platforms back to the mothership, back to the New York

0:20:52.280 --> 0:20:55.600
<v Speaker 1>Times experience. That was Mark Thompson, outgoing CEO of the

0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:58.560
<v Speaker 1>New York Times company. Coming up, we wrap up the

0:20:58.600 --> 0:21:02.320
<v Speaker 1>week with our special contributor, Larry Summers. This is Wall

0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:12.840
<v Speaker 1>Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week

0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:16.280
<v Speaker 1>with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. It was a week

0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.440
<v Speaker 1>of ups and downs and sometimes just playing moving sideways.

0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:21.159
<v Speaker 1>To wrap it up for us, we welcome now our

0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:25.520
<v Speaker 1>special contributor and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers of Harvard. So, Larry,

0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:27.359
<v Speaker 1>we had a lot of information on the stock market

0:21:27.359 --> 0:21:28.480
<v Speaker 1>towards the end of the week. I mean, in the

0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:30.480
<v Speaker 1>early week it was going up. The Latin part of

0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:32.400
<v Speaker 1>the week it really sold off quite a bit. How

0:21:32.480 --> 0:21:34.240
<v Speaker 1>much of this is signal and how much is this

0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:37.119
<v Speaker 1>as noise? To Barro from Nate Silver, you know, David

0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:42.200
<v Speaker 1>uh Bob Rubin famously told everybody in the Clinton White House,

0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:46.159
<v Speaker 1>markets go up, markets go down. I think it's a

0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:51.520
<v Speaker 1>mistake always to make judgments about deep and profound things,

0:21:52.119 --> 0:21:55.680
<v Speaker 1>even about the future of markets, from how they behave

0:21:55.800 --> 0:22:00.719
<v Speaker 1>over a period of uh several days. So I'd be

0:22:01.600 --> 0:22:05.840
<v Speaker 1>very surprised if the events of the last couple of

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:12.960
<v Speaker 1>days are historically memorable. My uh, my son, who's in

0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:16.320
<v Speaker 1>his mid twenties, UM, sent me a note in the

0:22:16.320 --> 0:22:21.120
<v Speaker 1>middle of the day saying, uh, hell of a correction, Dad,

0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:27.120
<v Speaker 1>And I wrote back, by the standards of your young life, UM,

0:22:27.680 --> 0:22:32.000
<v Speaker 1>and he had the good grace to write back, uh

0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:39.080
<v Speaker 1>fair enough. UM. So I don't know whether where markets are.

0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:45.320
<v Speaker 1>I I have come to think that the idea that

0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:49.760
<v Speaker 1>many had early on, how can the markets be so

0:22:49.880 --> 0:22:54.080
<v Speaker 1>strong in the midst of a COVID shock, So big,

0:22:54.880 --> 0:22:59.720
<v Speaker 1>I did that idea that treats the divergence as overwhelming

0:22:59.720 --> 0:23:06.120
<v Speaker 1>av instant markets are wrong is misguided. You would expect that, uh,

0:23:06.240 --> 0:23:10.000
<v Speaker 1>when interest rates were reduced as much as they have,

0:23:10.720 --> 0:23:15.960
<v Speaker 1>when the Fed is just freely providing liquidity, when action

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:21.600
<v Speaker 1>is shifting towards technology companies, you'd expect to see a

0:23:21.720 --> 0:23:26.360
<v Speaker 1>variety of the things we've seen. Are they overdone? Are

0:23:26.400 --> 0:23:29.840
<v Speaker 1>the movement's overdone? What fraction of that has been corrected

0:23:29.840 --> 0:23:32.840
<v Speaker 1>in the last couple of days. Each investor will have

0:23:32.960 --> 0:23:37.600
<v Speaker 1>to make uh their own judgment. But just as every

0:23:37.600 --> 0:23:41.800
<v Speaker 1>time it starts to snow, it's not a blizzard. Though

0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:45.480
<v Speaker 1>it might be h every time you have a significant

0:23:45.600 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 1>market move, it's not the beginning of something UH profound.

0:23:52.119 --> 0:23:55.160
<v Speaker 1>So I think people should be worried about whether we're

0:23:55.160 --> 0:23:57.760
<v Speaker 1>going to carry on an honest election in the United States.

0:23:58.240 --> 0:24:01.399
<v Speaker 1>They should be worried about whether we're going to have

0:24:01.600 --> 0:24:05.440
<v Speaker 1>a competent effort, which in many ways we haven't so

0:24:05.520 --> 0:24:10.840
<v Speaker 1>far to contain COVID. They should be worried about whether

0:24:10.880 --> 0:24:13.800
<v Speaker 1>we're going to find a way of making our economy function.

0:24:14.240 --> 0:24:20.320
<v Speaker 1>So it helps UH middle class UH people and large

0:24:20.359 --> 0:24:26.320
<v Speaker 1>fraction of population shares in any prosperity that's created. I

0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:30.760
<v Speaker 1>think the fundamentals are the more important things to be

0:24:30.880 --> 0:24:37.920
<v Speaker 1>worried about than UH this particular UH market fluctuation, which

0:24:37.960 --> 0:24:42.600
<v Speaker 1>I think is unlikely to be long remembered. Larry, there's

0:24:42.600 --> 0:24:43.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot of talk this week, because it was a

0:24:43.760 --> 0:24:46.000
<v Speaker 1>sell off led by big tech, that this might look

0:24:46.040 --> 0:24:48.200
<v Speaker 1>like two thousands, But as you pointed out to me,

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:50.080
<v Speaker 1>it's very different, in part because of what you just

0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:52.919
<v Speaker 1>pointed out, which is the central bank liquidity being infused

0:24:52.960 --> 0:24:54.639
<v Speaker 1>into the marketplace, as well as the fact that the

0:24:54.640 --> 0:24:56.840
<v Speaker 1>big tech companies aren't making a lot of money unlike

0:24:56.880 --> 0:25:00.280
<v Speaker 1>some of those tech high flyers back in two thousands. Yeah,

0:25:00.280 --> 0:25:03.800
<v Speaker 1>I don't think you were not. You were talking about

0:25:03.960 --> 0:25:08.280
<v Speaker 1>pets dot com UH in two thousands. You were talking

0:25:08.280 --> 0:25:13.280
<v Speaker 1>about an era when people raised UH money before they

0:25:13.280 --> 0:25:16.160
<v Speaker 1>had their first dollar of profits, before they had their

0:25:16.160 --> 0:25:21.040
<v Speaker 1>first dollar of revenues, before they had their first coherent

0:25:21.600 --> 0:25:26.920
<v Speaker 1>UH plan. I think when you're talking about the largest

0:25:26.960 --> 0:25:31.840
<v Speaker 1>companies in the marketplace, which is what the tech companies

0:25:32.240 --> 0:25:37.359
<v Speaker 1>UH now are, you're looking at something very different than

0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:40.680
<v Speaker 1>what we were looking at in two thousands, and if

0:25:40.680 --> 0:25:44.520
<v Speaker 1>you look at price earnings ratios, they're not in the

0:25:44.560 --> 0:25:49.080
<v Speaker 1>same kind of stratospheric place that the tech sector price

0:25:49.119 --> 0:25:55.160
<v Speaker 1>earnings ratios were in uh in the year two thousands. Now, look,

0:25:55.200 --> 0:25:59.879
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't mean there isn't gonna be a substantial correction

0:26:00.520 --> 0:26:05.440
<v Speaker 1>of some sort. Uh, No one, No one can know that,

0:26:05.600 --> 0:26:10.000
<v Speaker 1>and I certainly wouldn't want to claim that. But I

0:26:10.000 --> 0:26:13.840
<v Speaker 1>think that those who have been saying it's all a

0:26:13.880 --> 0:26:19.880
<v Speaker 1>big bubble and declaring themselves vindicated right now are premature

0:26:19.960 --> 0:26:22.359
<v Speaker 1>in their declarations of victory. Larry, one of the things

0:26:22.400 --> 0:26:24.840
<v Speaker 1>that the markets don't appear to be waiting for is

0:26:24.920 --> 0:26:27.639
<v Speaker 1>a fiscal stimulus package, that so called fourth round. Otherwise

0:26:27.680 --> 0:26:29.800
<v Speaker 1>they'd be waiting for good because it keeps going on

0:26:29.920 --> 0:26:32.480
<v Speaker 1>another week this week without getting it. At the same time,

0:26:32.480 --> 0:26:34.640
<v Speaker 1>we had to report of the CBO about the level

0:26:34.640 --> 0:26:36.960
<v Speaker 1>of episode which is going to go over a g

0:26:37.080 --> 0:26:38.880
<v Speaker 1>d P for the first time since World War Two.

0:26:39.200 --> 0:26:41.719
<v Speaker 1>Do the Republicans up on Capitol Hill who are concerned

0:26:41.720 --> 0:26:47.520
<v Speaker 1>about this have a point, you know, David Um what

0:26:47.720 --> 0:26:53.520
<v Speaker 1>I learned from the CBO actually made me a little

0:26:53.600 --> 0:26:58.560
<v Speaker 1>less concerned about a fiscal crisis and made me a

0:26:58.600 --> 0:27:04.160
<v Speaker 1>little more focused on providing fiscal support for the economy

0:27:04.280 --> 0:27:08.119
<v Speaker 1>that I was before. We all know that the United

0:27:08.119 --> 0:27:12.800
<v Speaker 1>States ran a big deficit in We all know that

0:27:12.880 --> 0:27:16.879
<v Speaker 1>the debt to GDP ratio, which was around at the

0:27:16.920 --> 0:27:19.159
<v Speaker 1>beginning of the year, is going to rise to around

0:27:20.520 --> 0:27:24.040
<v Speaker 1>because of uh, that big deficit and because of the

0:27:24.080 --> 0:27:27.560
<v Speaker 1>declining g d P. The thing I didn't have a

0:27:27.640 --> 0:27:31.560
<v Speaker 1>beat on until the CBO report was what was the

0:27:31.680 --> 0:27:35.560
<v Speaker 1>path gonna be out for a decade. And what I

0:27:35.720 --> 0:27:38.840
<v Speaker 1>learned from the CBO report is while the debt to

0:27:38.920 --> 0:27:42.520
<v Speaker 1>GDP ratio is projected to go up slowly over the

0:27:42.560 --> 0:27:46.000
<v Speaker 1>next two or three years from two thousand and twenty

0:27:46.080 --> 0:27:50.159
<v Speaker 1>three to two thousand and thirty on current law and

0:27:50.280 --> 0:27:54.520
<v Speaker 1>on current projections, the debt to GDP ratio isn't exploding.

0:27:54.920 --> 0:27:59.520
<v Speaker 1>It isn't rising very rapidly at all. It's basically of

0:28:00.040 --> 0:28:04.240
<v Speaker 1>at And what that says to me is that we're

0:28:04.280 --> 0:28:07.760
<v Speaker 1>in a relatively stable situation. Now, then you can ask

0:28:07.800 --> 0:28:12.320
<v Speaker 1>the question is it a dangerous situation? Well? There, I

0:28:12.400 --> 0:28:14.160
<v Speaker 1>think the way you have to look at a debt

0:28:14.800 --> 0:28:17.920
<v Speaker 1>is to look at the interest flows that it generates,

0:28:18.000 --> 0:28:23.120
<v Speaker 1>and in fact, we're spending less on interest UM as

0:28:23.119 --> 0:28:26.960
<v Speaker 1>a share of GDP than we have historically on average

0:28:27.000 --> 0:28:31.000
<v Speaker 1>over the last decades. And if you do what economists

0:28:31.000 --> 0:28:33.920
<v Speaker 1>would tend to say you should do, which is look

0:28:34.000 --> 0:28:38.520
<v Speaker 1>at UH the real interest cost of the debt, that is,

0:28:38.560 --> 0:28:44.640
<v Speaker 1>the cost net of inflation. Real interest rates are now negative,

0:28:45.000 --> 0:28:49.480
<v Speaker 1>which makes it much much easier to carry UH debt.

0:28:49.840 --> 0:28:53.320
<v Speaker 1>So what I learned from the CBO is not the

0:28:53.360 --> 0:28:56.320
<v Speaker 1>current deficit figures there in the papers every day, there

0:28:56.320 --> 0:28:59.440
<v Speaker 1>in the treasury accounts. What I looked to the studio

0:28:59.640 --> 0:29:04.480
<v Speaker 1>for every six months is an update on the long

0:29:04.600 --> 0:29:10.040
<v Speaker 1>run debt path, and that was actually a relatively serene

0:29:10.800 --> 0:29:16.320
<v Speaker 1>um UH projection. So I feel better now than I

0:29:16.360 --> 0:29:18.680
<v Speaker 1>did then. But is that because of the Fed? Larry

0:29:18.720 --> 0:29:20.280
<v Speaker 1>to put it simply, because if the real issue is

0:29:20.320 --> 0:29:23.000
<v Speaker 1>the interest cost right now we're approaching the zero bound

0:29:23.040 --> 0:29:26.120
<v Speaker 1>and interest cost because the Fed are we essentially financing

0:29:26.160 --> 0:29:28.680
<v Speaker 1>that that that debt, is this really a form of

0:29:28.720 --> 0:29:32.920
<v Speaker 1>modern monetary theory. I don't think that's quite the right

0:29:32.960 --> 0:29:36.600
<v Speaker 1>way to think about it, David. I think that if

0:29:36.680 --> 0:29:40.480
<v Speaker 1>most economists will tell you that, yes, the Fed can

0:29:40.760 --> 0:29:43.320
<v Speaker 1>set the interest rate this year, or maybe the said

0:29:43.360 --> 0:29:46.520
<v Speaker 1>FED can set the interest rate next year, but the

0:29:46.600 --> 0:29:50.440
<v Speaker 1>interest rate on long term debt, the so called five

0:29:50.520 --> 0:29:53.440
<v Speaker 1>year five year interest rate, the interest rate that's baked

0:29:53.480 --> 0:29:58.040
<v Speaker 1>into markets for borrowing that starts five years from now

0:29:58.080 --> 0:30:01.480
<v Speaker 1>and continues for five years half after that, that's not

0:30:01.640 --> 0:30:07.360
<v Speaker 1>something that the FED can immediately control. And it's remarkably low.

0:30:08.000 --> 0:30:12.240
<v Speaker 1>I think it's fundamental factors about savings and investment that

0:30:12.320 --> 0:30:16.200
<v Speaker 1>are determining the low level of interest rates, and the

0:30:16.200 --> 0:30:20.320
<v Speaker 1>FED is basically tracking that in its effort to keep

0:30:21.200 --> 0:30:25.080
<v Speaker 1>the economy stable. And this is the secular stagnation idea

0:30:25.160 --> 0:30:28.280
<v Speaker 1>that you and I have talked about on this UH show,

0:30:28.520 --> 0:30:31.080
<v Speaker 1>or the low neutral interest rate that people in the

0:30:31.080 --> 0:30:33.720
<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve system we've been talking about. I think they're

0:30:33.720 --> 0:30:37.960
<v Speaker 1>fundamental factors that mean we're going to have lower interest

0:30:38.040 --> 0:30:42.080
<v Speaker 1>rates and therefore can carry larger debts than we historically.

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:44.320
<v Speaker 1>It's fascinating. Thank you so much. It's always a treat

0:30:44.360 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>to talk with you. Larry. That is Wall Street. We

0:30:46.440 --> 0:30:49.280
<v Speaker 1>special contribute Larry Summers of Harvard coming on a rather

0:30:49.360 --> 0:30:51.920
<v Speaker 1>remarkable week a lot of all time in the marketplace,

0:30:51.960 --> 0:30:55.720
<v Speaker 1>but maybe not telling us very much in the end, finally,

0:30:56.080 --> 0:31:00.240
<v Speaker 1>one more thought, a different kind of Labor Day. In

0:31:00.280 --> 0:31:03.360
<v Speaker 1>the United States, we celebrate Labor Day this weekend, traditionally

0:31:03.400 --> 0:31:06.400
<v Speaker 1>marking the end of summer and back to school, but

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:08.800
<v Speaker 1>originally Labor Day had a bit more edge to it

0:31:08.840 --> 0:31:12.000
<v Speaker 1>than picnics and beach parties. Starting locally here in New

0:31:12.080 --> 0:31:14.920
<v Speaker 1>York City, in eighteen eighty two, it became a national

0:31:14.960 --> 0:31:18.160
<v Speaker 1>holiday as part of President Grover Cleveland's efforts to come

0:31:18.360 --> 0:31:21.000
<v Speaker 1>labor strife that had led to deaths in eighteen ninety four.

0:31:21.760 --> 0:31:24.760
<v Speaker 1>This year, we celebrate Labor Day with millions upon millions

0:31:24.760 --> 0:31:27.240
<v Speaker 1>of people out of work, with back to school very

0:31:27.280 --> 0:31:29.800
<v Speaker 1>much up in the air for millions of children, with

0:31:29.840 --> 0:31:32.200
<v Speaker 1>warnings about the need to wear masks and keep our

0:31:32.240 --> 0:31:35.600
<v Speaker 1>distance from one another, and with racial strife and cities

0:31:35.640 --> 0:31:40.440
<v Speaker 1>around the country triggered by police shootings. But despite all that,

0:31:40.440 --> 0:31:43.760
<v Speaker 1>we're dealing with. Happy Labor Day wherever you are, and

0:31:43.800 --> 0:31:47.160
<v Speaker 1>however you can celebrate it safely. Let's hope for holiday

0:31:47.200 --> 0:31:49.440
<v Speaker 1>next year we can go back to worrying only about

0:31:49.480 --> 0:31:53.520
<v Speaker 1>getting a sunburn and eating too much. That does it.

0:31:53.600 --> 0:31:56.160
<v Speaker 1>For this episode of Wall String Week, I'm David Weston.

0:31:56.360 --> 0:31:59.000
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg see you next week.