1 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: Welcome a trillions. I'm Joel Webber and. 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: I'm Eric Belchunis. 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,319 Speaker 1: Okay, Eric, A lot of things have happened so far 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:19,080 Speaker 1: this year or didn't happen. I should say that now 5 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: that we're in the second half of the year, it 6 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 1: felt like I wanted to huddle with you and get 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: a better sense of what could happen in the second 8 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: half of the year, because look like there's a nineteen 9 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: percent up year to date in the S and P 10 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: five hundred. That's crazy. Nobody expected that We're supposed to 11 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: be like mired in a recession that has yet to happen, right. 12 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been a wild year. 13 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 3: And you know, a few episodes back, we had Athanasios 14 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 3: on my team on to talk about the Fomo drought. 15 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 3: You know, all these the cues and spy were up 16 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 3: a lot, but nobody. 17 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: Was buying, and that that kind of ended. 18 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 3: The flows are back, so that's one sort of baby 19 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 3: that's been put to bed. Is the flows now matched 20 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 3: the performance. But yeah, there's you know a lot of 21 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 3: excess return right now. I'm always nervous when when the 22 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,320 Speaker 3: ques are of thirty six percent in like the first 23 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:09,919 Speaker 3: half of the year, I'm like, all right, when's when's 24 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 3: the shoe gonna drop? 25 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:12,759 Speaker 2: What's gonna happen to pull us back? 26 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 3: Maybe there'll be an inflation print, although there hasn't been, 27 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,639 Speaker 3: but yeah, it's unexpected and all of a sudden, growth 28 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 3: and tech are back, and that's the sort of thing 29 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: just like seven stocks leading everything, and it kind of 30 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 3: feels like twenty and twenty one again, like twenty twenty 31 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 3: two never happens. 32 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: So that's the macro scene. 33 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 3: But certainly there's other things in the ETF world I 34 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 3: think that are really interesting that I don't know, get 35 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 3: me out of bed in the morning, jowl. There's a 36 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 3: lot of interesting stuff that we're looking for in the 37 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 3: second half that really could make news. 38 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: Okay, So for your summer listening, we're gonna go back 39 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: to Athanasio, Sarah Vegas of Bloomberg Intelligence and Analysts with 40 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: Eric and talk through a few of the things to 41 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: look out for between now and the end. This time, 42 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: I'm trying five things to watch in the second half 43 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: at the Nacios. Welcome back to trillions. 44 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, glad to be back. 45 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: Okay, what's the number one thing that you guys are 46 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 1: like as the analyst the ETF analyst at Bloomberger Intelligence. 47 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: You're like rolling out of bed, fired up to watch 48 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: in the second half. 49 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 4: Should I pass this one to Eric on bitcoin? Do 50 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 4: we want to start there? I don't want to start there, 51 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:25,079 Speaker 4: but he already did. I let's go. 52 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 2: We have to. 53 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 3: Now this is a it's an interesting dynamic on our team. 54 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 3: James and I are like losing our minds about the 55 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 3: bitcoin ETF race, along with nature Racy at ETF store. 56 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 3: Every every like ten minutes on Twitter, there's some new 57 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 3: document or amendment and we're we're analyzing it. I feel 58 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 3: like Jim Garrison in the movie JFK, just basically all 59 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 3: this circumstantial evidence coming at me left and right that 60 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 3: Lee Harvey Oswell did not act alone, right. 61 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 2: And that's a lot what it feels like. 62 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 3: I'm not sure what is going to in retrospect be 63 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 3: the right clue whether the SEC will approve the first 64 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 3: ever spot BITCOINYTF. But where we stand now is that 65 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 3: the SEC has really recently acknowledged all the filings. 66 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 2: That's good. 67 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 3: Now, in a couple of days they'll hit the public 68 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 3: Registry and from there a clock starts, and so we're 69 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 3: going to have the next deadline date be August thirteenth 70 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 3: for ARC and then sometime in September for the rest, 71 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 3: but the SEC could punt, so the first final final 72 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 3: deadline will be January next year. So the question is, well, 73 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 3: the SEC approven before then, will they deny them again 74 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 3: just as usual? This everything has been changed because Blackrock 75 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 3: filed and the black rocks Blackrock, and so that's really 76 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 3: changed the game. And there's been other things that have 77 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 3: happened in terms of coinbase, you know, maturing, and maybe 78 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 3: maybe they're the kind of company that would have a 79 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 3: surveillance sharing agreement with NASDAC and the SEC would be 80 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 3: okay with that, even though they weren't in the past. Again, 81 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 3: there's a lot of very but this is a story 82 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 3: that's massive. 83 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 2: Why if they approve. 84 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 3: One, there's thirty trillion dollars plus that is just more 85 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 3: comfortable using an ETF and those would be advisors, and 86 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 3: so you kind of unlock at least a portion of 87 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,480 Speaker 3: that money to be in play for this ETF. They 88 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 3: love ETF, They trust ETFs, especially once from like Blackrock, 89 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 3: and so this would be like a bridge from the 90 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 3: boomer advisor all the wealth in America world to the 91 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 3: sort of crypto underworld. And that's why this is a 92 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 3: massive story. It involves the biggest asset manager, the highest 93 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 3: rugs of government. 94 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's all the. 95 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,919 Speaker 1: Airtrol okay, Athanasios. If you're the SEC, why wouldn't you 96 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: just let the shot clock run out on this calendar year? 97 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 4: Uh? Yeah, I mean and maybe they might. I think 98 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 4: we're going to get right to I think with a 99 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 4: timeline it might actually push it into next year. And 100 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 4: I don't know if it's just a game of waiting 101 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,679 Speaker 4: out Gensler or whatnot, But well, I don't share Eric's 102 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 4: enthusiasm for it. I think it's time. I think the 103 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 4: market can handle it, right, the black Rock is now involved, 104 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 4: these products exists in other markets in Canada and Europe. 105 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 4: Like the market can handle it. I think it's about 106 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 4: time that actually just approved like a two x bitcoin 107 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 4: future is etf too, like ahead of this, so that 108 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 4: kind of seemed a little odd, but I think it's 109 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 4: I think it's about time move forward with this. 110 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 2: Eric. 111 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: Are you confident it happens this year or do you 112 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: think it happens next year or or just you know, 113 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: we don't know and it just punts keeps punting. 114 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 3: So James and I are collectively giving our team's odds, 115 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 3: and we've come up with fifty percent, which we're getting 116 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 3: like getting like mocked on Twitter because like, oh, fifty percent. 117 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 2: Whoa way to. 118 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 3: Take a stand there, But I'm like, listen, stop. Forty percent. 119 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:47,599 Speaker 3: That's the cop out number. That's what the sell side 120 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 3: always does. There's a forty percent chance of it raining, 121 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 3: there's a forty percent chance of the. 122 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 2: Market going up. 123 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 3: That's the cop out. Fifty percent is actually aggressive, and 124 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 3: it's relative to our etf peers. You look at Vetify, 125 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 3: morning Star and others, I think we're mostly aggressive. Fifty 126 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 3: percent would be higher, I think than they would do. 127 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 3: And I even have another steak dinner bet on this 128 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 3: with Todd Rosenblooth of Edify, one of our friends. I'm 129 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 3: still three and two on these and so I don't 130 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 3: want to go five hundred. So I'm really hoping if 131 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,480 Speaker 3: anybody from the SEC is listening, just to prove the 132 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:19,799 Speaker 3: damn thing it's time. 133 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 2: As Ethan said, let me have my steak dinner. I will. 134 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 3: It'll be glorious because he's so such a downer about it, 135 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 3: and I just think that Blackrock would not have done 136 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 3: this if they didn't think they had somewhat of a 137 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 3: winning hand. 138 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 2: I kind of knew. 139 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 1: I had a hunch that you were going to say 140 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 1: bitcoin was the number one thing I was going to 141 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:40,479 Speaker 1: be watching for by the end of the air. So 142 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 1: it surprised me with number two. 143 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 4: Okay, So now let's let's get into some of the 144 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 4: ETF weeds and a big thing the share is going 145 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 4: to be the Vanguard ETF share class patent and actually 146 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 4: what okay, so what yeah, let's talk about what that is. Actually, 147 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 4: So Vanguard has this unique advantage that no one else 148 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 4: has here that their ETFs are share class of their 149 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 4: mutual fund. And they had a patent on this actually 150 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 4: and it expired this year, and now this is up 151 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 4: for review and other issuers might try to copy this 152 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 4: patent or you know, get access to it. And one 153 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 4: thing that also happened last year is all these different 154 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 4: estimatgers are coming to the market. So deciding how do 155 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 4: we want to do this. Do we want to just 156 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 4: launch ETFs, do we want to convert ETFs, or do 157 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 4: we wait for the share class patent to come up. 158 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 4: So now with this being available to them, we're trying 159 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 4: to figure out can they actually get this done. Everyone's 160 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 4: trying to petition for it. We've heard mixed results. The 161 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 4: SEC is saying, well, we're not very comfortable with letting 162 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 4: everyone else use this. Other issuers are pretty bullish on it. 163 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 4: I'm on the team. We're pretty split. I'm very bullish 164 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 4: on this. I like the ETF share class. I think 165 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 4: it makes a lot of sense compared to some of 166 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 4: the other routes that issuers are taking. Eric is very 167 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 4: bullish on conversions, and the reason why I feel more 168 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 4: confident into this, you know, talking about this last week DFA, 169 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 4: who was like really came in really strong with conversions. 170 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 4: They actually now file that they want to adopt the 171 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 4: share class, which I thought was really interesting that, you know, 172 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 4: sort of like the babies of conversions are like when 173 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 4: I wouldn't want to do conversions anymore, we want to 174 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 4: start pursuing the share class. So I think this is 175 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 4: going to be I think if they do approve it, 176 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 4: we're going to see I think we can see a 177 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 4: lot of issuers or other asset managers start to convert 178 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 4: their et or tack the sounds of their mutual funds. 179 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: Eric how big of a game, ginger would this be 180 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: if Vanguard is no longer the only one. 181 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 3: This is this is very huge. Again, if for anybody 182 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 3: who's still awake after hearing Vanguard's share class structure, I 183 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 3: know that's very boring, but it's major because there's twenty 184 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 3: six trillion dollars in mutual funds, not all of it, 185 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:56,600 Speaker 3: but a good chunk of that for a variety of reasons, 186 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 3: is having trouble getting into the ETF world. This would 187 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 3: actually give them a bridge over. They would just launch 188 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 3: an ETF share class with their mutual fund. And they're 189 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 3: really gnawing to do this because the ETF access something 190 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 3: of a dialysis machine for taxes. It's a way to 191 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 3: get rid of capital gains in your mutual fund and 192 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 3: make the mutual fund more tax efficient. This is what 193 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:21,839 Speaker 3: Vanguard has done with their index mutual funds and their 194 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 3: share class. So now, to be sure, it's not a 195 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 3: home it's not like a slam dunk because even if 196 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 3: the sec allows it, which is a big if, if 197 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 3: your mutual funds the outflows, it can be harder to 198 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 3: do this correctly because if you have to sell securities 199 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 3: to meet the outflows it's possible the ETF takes a 200 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 3: capital gains hit that ETF investors are not used to getting. 201 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 3: Because of that, Ben Jonson calls it tax contagion, and 202 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 3: I think that's a great term. 203 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 2: So, and we know most mutual funds have outflows. 204 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 3: That's the big kind of marketplace problem with that. And 205 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 3: then there's a regulatory hurdle too. That's why I'm still 206 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 3: more bullish on versions. A conversion, you come over to 207 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 3: the ETF world, You leave the mutual fund world behind, 208 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 3: bye bye. You come over with your share class. I 209 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 3: mean your performance record, your assets, and your dignity. 210 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 2: You all of a sudden a player. And I think 211 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 2: this is what most people should just do. 212 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 3: It might be a little cannibalization, but in the long run, 213 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 3: it's worth it. And so I'm more bullish conversions. James 214 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 3: and Ethan are a little more bullish on the share class. 215 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 3: And this is, you know, one of the things that 216 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 3: we fight about our debate rather on our persistent chat 217 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 3: every day. 218 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: Well, you went with the weeds there, Athanasias, and I'm 219 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: curious you're going to go more weedy or less weedy 220 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,839 Speaker 1: with number three. Thing to watch between now and the 221 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: end of the year. 222 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 4: So this is a little bit more market related. And 223 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 4: it was something that Eric alluded to in the beginning 224 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 4: about the ending of the fomo drought, right, and what 225 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 4: was causing the fomo drout, and one was that you 226 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 4: were making decent yield on cash and money market funds. 227 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,199 Speaker 4: I actually think that we might have peaked there a 228 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 4: little bit, and I think this is what has caused 229 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 4: the fomo drought to end. And I didn't really realize 230 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,079 Speaker 4: this until recently. For the most part, over the last year, 231 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 4: cash was beating pretty much everything. It was beating stocks, 232 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 4: it was beating bonds. Now all of a sudden, because 233 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 4: I think we were mentioning the cues are up like 234 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 4: almost forty percent this year. Yeah, and now you're like, well, 235 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 4: cash is great, but you know it's even better, like 236 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 4: forty percent in the queues, and everyone's starting to tilt 237 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 4: over to that now. So now we're seeing that most 238 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 4: strategies are beating cash over the last year, and I 239 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 4: think that's been enough to start enticing people back into 240 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 4: the market. Right. 241 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: So that makes me think that we could see inflows 242 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,319 Speaker 1: go dramatically up between now and the end of the year, 243 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: just because everybody probably still has a tidy amount still. 244 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 4: In cash, right, uh. Yeah, And you know there's still 245 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 4: five trillion or so still money market funds, and I 246 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 4: think if it's probably enough to say, you know what, 247 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,240 Speaker 4: I can leave some in cash, but I'm comfortable enough 248 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 4: to be putting some money back to work in the 249 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 4: market or not, it's too late, Like forty six months 250 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 4: is a lot. It's an aggressive move. So I don't 251 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 4: know what, you know, what the second half of the 252 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 4: year is going to look like, but I think to 253 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 4: your point, flows should pick up. Yeah. 254 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, just to add, flows into ETFs overall are two 255 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 3: hundred and thirty three billion. 256 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 2: That's not a lot. 257 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 3: That's normally what ETFs do in like I don't know, 258 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 3: four months and we're into July, so it's been a 259 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 3: little but they've really picked up over the last I 260 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 3: don't know, six weeks, the two months. They're having a 261 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 3: good summer, let's just say. And equity is almost like 262 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 3: eighty ninety percent of all the. 263 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 2: Flows coming in. 264 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 3: So equity is like, you know, like the player that 265 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 3: you know is having a bad first half, like Tom 266 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 3: Brady here, like he's not going to have a bad game, 267 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 3: Like at some point equity is going to go full equity. 268 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 3: It's the king of the hill, and especially US equity, 269 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,439 Speaker 3: and it has really turned the tide here and we're 270 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:49,959 Speaker 3: seeing the flows and I think we'll see a lot 271 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 3: more at the end of the year. But to our 272 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:54,079 Speaker 3: point at the beginning, how much more can the queues 273 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 3: run if you're up that much? 274 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:57,320 Speaker 2: So it could be. 275 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:00,559 Speaker 3: Interesting if the flows follow. If the mare it turns 276 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 3: it downward, and I guess we'll say. And one other 277 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 3: related chart that Athanasios has that I love is percent 278 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 3: of active beating the market, and that has plummeted because 279 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 3: when the six growth stocks are crushing everything, it's bad 280 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,439 Speaker 3: for active because they tend to be fundamentally weighted and 281 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 3: value weighted and they just are like, there's no way 282 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 3: I'm buying a stock with a P that hi, I 283 00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 3: don't care what company it is. 284 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 2: So last year they really did well. So this has 285 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 2: been bad for active. 286 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 3: So even no money's coming back into the equity market, 287 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 3: it's it's I think a lot of it is, you know, 288 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 3: not great for active performance. But active ETF flows have 289 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 3: been pretty good, which brings me to number four, which 290 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 3: is the active ETF flows. So this would be the 291 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 3: fourth thing on our list, and right now they've taken 292 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,199 Speaker 3: it about one quarter of the flows despite only thirty 293 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 3: one percent of active discretion or ETFs outperforming the S 294 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 3: and P why they got cheap. So the fact that 295 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 3: active can taking money despite having a bad year is 296 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 3: a very good sign. And it shows that once you 297 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 3: get dirt cheap, your less performance sensitive advisors have a 298 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,600 Speaker 3: little more patience. If you're cheap, they have like they 299 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 3: feel like they're gonna a better deal. They're not chasing performance, 300 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 3: they're they're just looking for a good value and they 301 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 3: want active price correctly. So active ETFs having a good 302 00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 3: year this year, I think is a great sign long 303 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 3: term for them. 304 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: Ethan probably agrees. 305 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 1: So are you Are you surprised by that that they 306 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 1: were willing to get dirt cheap or was that just 307 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: the thunderdome which you have to do to survive. 308 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 4: I'm not surprised. And this is a line that's Eric Sigin, 309 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 4: but I think he nailed it. Is that you have 310 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 4: to come onto the terms of the ETF industry. Right, 311 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 4: you can come in and do you could come in 312 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 4: and charge whatever you want, but ultimately the ETF industry 313 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 4: will decide, and going cheap just seems like where it's going. 314 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 4: But it's interesting because people are not anti active, right. 315 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 4: Even Eric mentioned the rates are way down, but the 316 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 4: flows are still there. And I think even in the 317 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 4: second half of the year, if we think that the 318 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 4: market has run up too much, you might want to 319 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 4: go active here, right, you might not want to be overweight. 320 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 4: Dan videos in these really high flying names in the cues, 321 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 4: so it actually might make sense for the back half 322 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 4: of the year for active. 323 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 3: Interesting, let me build upon that, because active ETFs cheap 324 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 3: ones in particular. What's interesting about that is Vanguard and 325 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 3: Blackrock don't really have anything there. They don't really have 326 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 3: an answer yet to cheap active. This is dfatis, JP Morgan. 327 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 3: Those are the ones that are doing well. And this 328 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 3: has made Blackrock and Vanguard taken much less. The big 329 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 3: two is taken in much less than. 330 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 2: They normally do. 331 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 3: They are punching below their weight for the first time 332 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 3: in a long time, and I think it's because they 333 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 3: don't really have an answer for cheap active. I think 334 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 3: they'll roll stuff out. I wrote a note saying Vanguard 335 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,400 Speaker 3: has really cheap active mutual funds already. They should just 336 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 3: bring them over and Blackrock is I think of a 337 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 3: little more opportunistic on that front, and I think they'll 338 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 3: just see the flows and respond accordingly. But I think 339 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 3: cheap active is going to be, you know, a really 340 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 3: big area in the future. And the reason is because 341 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 3: beta is free, so people just want to get charged 342 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 3: for the active. So if you don't have a lot 343 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,640 Speaker 3: of high active share, you kind of have to adjust 344 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 3: your fees accordingly so that you're just paying for that active. 345 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 3: And so this is such a big trend. It's actually 346 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 3: possibly not only going to curb the Big two's growth, 347 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 3: but it's going to swing the pendulum a little bit. 348 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 3: Because you know wory about the passive bubble, Well, if 349 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 3: active finally starts getting flows, it should naturally stop those 350 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 3: worries that passive is like eating the whole market up. 351 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 3: And I think that's good. And again I call this 352 00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 3: all the great cost migration. Eventually, everybody's just got to 353 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 3: get with the program here, and I think Active was 354 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 3: just a little late to do it, but better late 355 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 3: than never. 356 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 1: This actually, to me speaks to maybe the influence of Kathy. 357 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 1: Would like Kathy could come into ETFs prove that active 358 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: could could work and get attention and like, you know, 359 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: become a thing really And so this is everybody else 360 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: realizing that they have to They could have a version 361 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 1: of what Kathy can do, right, only they're going to 362 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:07,879 Speaker 1: be cheaper than her. 363 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 3: So I think Kathy deserves a lot of credit for 364 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 3: kicking down the doors that you can. Actually in some 365 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,680 Speaker 3: ways she became a little bit of a rock star manager. 366 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 3: I thought that those days were over. She kind of 367 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 3: proved me wrong. But her Active is a different brand. 368 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,439 Speaker 3: Her Active is shiny object active. It's hot sauce active, 369 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 3: and so she charges over seventy basis points. So that 370 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 3: is one thing I think Kathy showed that thematic and 371 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 3: hot sauce can work. What happened recently though, is JP 372 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,960 Speaker 3: Morgan dfa capital group. They all came out with cheap active, 373 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,679 Speaker 3: in particular JEPI, the JP Morgan Equity Income ETF that 374 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 3: I believe is thirty five basis points around there, and 375 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 3: that has been the best selling active ETF of all time. 376 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 3: So what we try to tell people again is it 377 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,879 Speaker 3: comes down if you're active or passive, you kind of 378 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 3: need to be cheap or shiny. So I think Kathy 379 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 3: broke down the shiny door. I think JP Morgan broke 380 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 3: down the cheap active door. 381 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: Okay, so let's do the last thing that we're all 382 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 1: supposed to be watching for between now and the end 383 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 1: of the year or else, Eric Buysi's all steak dinners. 384 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 2: This one also involves a bet. 385 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 3: This is a sushi bet between me and Athan and 386 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 3: I made a call on a note that JP Morgan 387 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 3: will pass First Trust in assets by the end of 388 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 3: the year and overtake the sixth spot, which is kind 389 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,520 Speaker 3: of crazy because JP Morgan was out of the top 390 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 3: ten just recently. I mean, they have made a actual 391 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,400 Speaker 3: parabolic move up the middle of the charts. So as 392 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 3: we stand, and this is where my bet on Athanasio's 393 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 3: hinges is, JP Morgan has one hundred and fifteen billion 394 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 3: in assets. First Trust has one hundred and forty billion. 395 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 3: That's a twenty five billion dollar gap. 396 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 1: That seems pretty that seems pretty wide. 397 00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 3: It is, but JP Morgan has taken in twenty three 398 00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 3: billion and flows this year. First Trust is basically flat, 399 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 3: so you get a little market help another twenty three billion, 400 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 3: and JP Morgan is the ETF line is led by 401 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 3: a very aggressive guy named Brian Lake. We've had on 402 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 3: the show, and First Trust they're you know, I'm not there. 403 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 3: They're a good company, solid, they've carved out their niche, 404 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 3: but I think that they do expensive active so they 405 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 3: rely more in the relationships, whereas JP Morgan is tapping 406 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 3: into the cheap active lane, which has been just a 407 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 3: gusher of opportunity. So I just think JP Morgan is 408 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:34,959 Speaker 3: going to pass them by the end of the year. 409 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 3: It's going to be close. The trajectory wise has him 410 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 3: rate at the bout January first, passing them, but again, 411 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 3: anything could happen. That's why these bets are fun. But 412 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,679 Speaker 3: Athanasios is a little less bullish on JP Morgan than 413 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 3: I am. 414 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, props to JP Morgan. They it's not easy to 415 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,239 Speaker 4: come in and make a big splash like they have. 416 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 4: I think when you start to pull back their lineup, 417 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 4: it's a little weak, meaning you know, it's it's it's 418 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 4: contingent on one two products. The only thing I respect 419 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 4: about First Trust is they've been around a long time. 420 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 4: Being able to sell ETFs that cost sixty five seventy 421 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 4: basis points is not easy, so I think they've they've 422 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 4: been able to weather a lot of different storms. And 423 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 4: something you mentioned too, like the gap is pretty wide. 424 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 4: I think they can continue to have that lead for 425 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 4: a while. I think eventually Eric will be right. I 426 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:22,639 Speaker 4: don't think they're going to get it done by the 427 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 4: end of the year, but I always have. You know, 428 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 4: any firm that can sell against Vanguard and have success 429 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 4: is pretty meaningful. 430 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know about just a couple of products. 431 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 3: I mean they have ready for this nineteen funds that 432 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:41,400 Speaker 3: have seen inflows over one hundred million this year. There's 433 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,679 Speaker 3: just there's there's a good role players in their lineup. 434 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 3: It's not just JEFPY, although JEFPY is like the king 435 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 3: of jp Morgan, but bb EU is four billion, jef 436 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 3: Q is two point eight billion. 437 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 4: I don't count those ones. It's JPST and JEFPY. The 438 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,680 Speaker 4: other ones are if I want to. 439 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 1: All right, we'll come back to this at the end 440 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: of the year. We'll figure out who's got steak dinners, 441 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 1: who's getting sushi? And you know, Eric, you and I 442 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: might need to come up with something else too. 443 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think you know. I like bets 444 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 3: because they just keep things interesting. I've been doing this 445 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:14,959 Speaker 3: for like, I don't know, seventeen years, at this point, 446 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 3: and it's fun when they come up organically. When you 447 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 3: get into like a little bit of a debate with somebody, 448 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 3: it's like, all right, do you really think this or 449 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 3: you're just sort of debating to debate, Well, debate's sake, 450 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 3: let's see what you really think. 451 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 1: We'll see if anybody has any suggestions for. 452 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:31,640 Speaker 4: Us, and we'll. 453 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: Lay it down all right at the nasios. Thanks for 454 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: joining us on Trillions. 455 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for having me. 456 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,239 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time. You can 457 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, 458 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,199 Speaker 1: or wherever else you'd like to listen. We'd love to 459 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: hear from you. We're on Twitter. I'm at Joel Webber Show. 460 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: He's at Eric Faultness. This episode of Trillions was produced 461 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 1: by magne Is Hendrickson. 462 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 2: M h m hm 463 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:07,919 Speaker 4: H m hm