1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 2: You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories 4 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 2: making news and moving markets in the APEC region. You 5 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,439 Speaker 2: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast 6 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 7 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app. Let's take a closer look at the 8 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,839 Speaker 2: Broadcom story and also speak more broadly about what's happening 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 2: in the semiconductor space with Bloomberg's Kun John Sabani. He 10 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 2: is our senior Semiconductor analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins 11 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: us from San Francisco. Cunjohn, It's always a pleasure when 12 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: I look at the guidance for the current quarter, the 13 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 2: company basically coming in around one hundred million dollars below 14 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 2: the average estimate, and still the stock gets punished in 15 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: the way that it was. Is there something more that 16 00:00:58,000 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: we need to talk about here, that this is not 17 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 2: just a miss on guidance, that there's something else afoot. 18 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 3: Really, you know, the stock reaction so far has been 19 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 3: surprising to us. Coming into the earnings. There were a 20 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 3: couple of things we and investors were keen to focus on, 21 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 3: namely the AI revenues, which they upsided by a billion dollars. Second, 22 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 3: the VMware integration and the software revenue growth, which again 23 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 3: came better than expected. The weakness, this very slight weakness, 24 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 3: Really one hundred million dollars is very small given the 25 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 3: magnetity of revenues they make. The weakness was really that 26 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 3: the non AI cyclical legacy segments did not recover or 27 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 3: are not recovering as fast as we had thought. Now 28 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 3: that's not broadcome specific. That's going around in the end 29 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 3: markets across the board in semis, in those legacy cyclical 30 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 3: end markets. So the reaction seems to be a little 31 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 3: bit overreaction to me. 32 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: Can we take a bigger picture here in terms of 33 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: what is that mean when these non AI components of 34 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: the companies aren't doing as well? 35 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 3: Yeah. So, you know, semiconductor is exposed to various industries 36 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 3: and end markets. So typically we divide the segments within 37 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 3: semiconductors into cyclical because inherently, historically semiconductors has been a 38 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 3: cyclical industry that goes up and down with the economy 39 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 3: in different segments. AI is the new sort of you know, 40 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 3: very new area of business for them, and exposure, which 41 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 3: is currently not seeing cycles but is more secular, so 42 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 3: every year you see growth increasing and increasing, so it 43 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 3: has not met a single full cycle. So these cyclical 44 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 3: end markets are something like Heelco's your service providers, your 45 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 3: industrial end markets, right your broadband, your overall general purpose 46 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 3: it spend. And we have heard this across the board 47 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 3: from other companies that these markets have gone are going 48 00:02:56,200 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 3: through its trap, and some companies are seeing in the 49 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 3: bottom a few quarters earlier, some a little bit later. 50 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 3: But the overall thesis across our oral sentiment is the 51 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,959 Speaker 3: traft has sort of been confirmed, but the recovery out 52 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 3: of the straft is as not strong as we had expected. 53 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,639 Speaker 2: As you know, Kunjohn a broadcome as a major chip 54 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 2: supplier for Apple. Is it too much to kind of 55 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: read through what we're hearing from Broadcom and kind of 56 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 2: conclude anything around Apple's business. 57 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 3: Well, so there implied guidance for their wireless segment, which 58 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 3: is really what the segment comprises, of which they only 59 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 3: sell their chips to Apple amongst other handset makers, did 60 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 3: not come weak, So there's nothing weakness to be implied 61 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 3: from there, it was in line and from what we expected. 62 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: So obviously we see that the AI business is doing well. 63 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: How does this provide this constructive view on the AI 64 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: bawl narrative, especially because we've had I had some a 65 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: little bit of a drawback in that narrative over the 66 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: past few weeks. 67 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, I see most of the drawbacks has been acting 68 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 3: out on the stock price side. When you look at 69 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 3: the fundamentals of the key AI chip suppliers, which we 70 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 3: can just name in one hand, all of them have 71 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 3: come out with great numbers and great and upsided guidance. 72 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 3: So from a fundamental perspective, the demand signals keep on 73 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 3: getting stronger. There's sort of nothing highlight, no risk factors 74 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 3: there that we have seen, at least from the earnings 75 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 3: of these companies that I've talked about. Similar Rotcom also 76 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 3: upsided their numbers for AI for the sea. 77 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 2: You know, when you talk about semiconductors, it's such a 78 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 2: broad category, so many different types of chips, whether they're 79 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 2: processors or memory chips. But I have to ask you 80 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 2: Coo John about the story that our Ian King reported 81 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 2: earlier about Intel considering options for its stake and Mobile 82 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 2: Eye Global now we know that Intel has been struggling 83 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 2: the business model right now being challenged. CEO Pat Gelsinger 84 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 2: had wanted to build out a foundry business that seems 85 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 2: to be somewhat in doubt right now. There are other 86 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 2: parts of Intel's business that have been struggling. What do 87 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 2: we know about this story right now and the degree 88 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 2: to which Intel is really kind of struggling to find 89 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 2: its balance once again. 90 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, Intel has been dealing with fires 91 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 3: at multiple runs. If you divide Intel into its two 92 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 3: core businesses, one is the product which is the chip business. 93 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 3: Right mainly, the biggest portion that chip business comes from 94 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:49,279 Speaker 3: PCs and CPUs amongst other things, selling into data centers. 95 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 3: That business has seen has been going through decline for 96 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 3: a while. The key important thing there is they've been 97 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 3: losing share to its competitors. And the other core business 98 00:05:59,880 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 3: is the foundry business, like you outlined. So they have 99 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 3: been you know, multiple nodes or i should say multiple 100 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 3: years behind PSMC, which continues to be the leader in 101 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 3: advanced manufacturing nodes or in advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology. So 102 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 3: they're trying to play catch up from all fronts, and 103 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 3: you know, catching up and creating a brand new out 104 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 3: foundry business which they can support to external customers is 105 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 3: a multi year, three to five year and significantly expensive 106 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 3: venture for which they need support from the Chipsacks funds, 107 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 3: that customers, etc. So when you're trying to regain leadership 108 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,479 Speaker 3: in your product, regain leadership in your foundry business, it 109 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:44,880 Speaker 3: doesn't help also that the end markets at the same 110 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 3: time are going against you, which we saw PCs sort 111 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 3: of bottomed in twenty twenty three. Data center. Again, most 112 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 3: of the dollar revenues right now are going towards the 113 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 3: AI chip and in fact, Intel frankly missed that AI 114 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 3: train because they were solely focused on the CPUs and 115 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 3: their accelerator's program is not working as much as their peers. 116 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 3: So basically you're you're again fighting fire on multiple fronts. 117 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: So overall, what's your outlook for the seven conductor industry 118 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: and for AI stocks. 119 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, so, you know, we are looking at this semine 120 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:26,840 Speaker 3: industry based on the end market exposure. When we look 121 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 3: at the legacy cyclical end markets general purpose, enterprise, industrial, automotive, 122 00:07:34,320 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 3: these are going through some tough times right now. We 123 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 3: are seeing some green shoots in some pockets of this 124 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 3: end market showing that demand is coming back, but you 125 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 3: know the slope of their demand recovery remains a concern. Now. 126 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 3: When we look at the secular portions of this, which 127 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 3: is AI, we see it kicking on all firing on 128 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 3: all cylinders. We don't see any slowdown within that sector. 129 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 3: So that's how we look at the second from different 130 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 3: in market perspective. 131 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 2: Kun John, it's always a pleasure. Thank you so much 132 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 2: for being with us, Kun John Sabani, Senior Semiconductor analyst 133 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 2: or Bloomberg Intelligence. Katie Kaminski joins as she is the 134 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 2: chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex, joining us from Boston. Nice, 135 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 2: if you do have time for us. What do you 136 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 2: make of where we are right now in the overall 137 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 2: economic I noted that the ISM Services index may be 138 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 2: a little bit of a positive surprise, but that ADP 139 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,160 Speaker 2: number on private payrolls may have been a little disappointing. 140 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 2: Where are we at the moment? 141 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 4: So what we're seeing in the trend falling space is 142 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 4: we've actually seen a massive pivot that's been a little 143 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 4: bit more defensive in other asset classes, which. 144 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 5: Is definitely making me a little bit. 145 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 4: Concerned going into the fall, particularly, you've seen this risk 146 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 4: off trade this week. 147 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 5: It's been seeping out since early June. 148 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,880 Speaker 4: So across different asset class themes, you're definitely seeing a 149 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 4: little bit more of a higher probability that we could 150 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 4: have or a session or a harder landing than we 151 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 4: anticipated earlier this year. 152 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 2: So, if you had to bet on what the Fed 153 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 2: will do on the eighteenth, are you in the twenty 154 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 2: five basis point right cut camp or are you in 155 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 2: the fifty camp? 156 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 4: I'd say I'm in the twenty five just because I 157 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:28,680 Speaker 4: think if they go fifty negative information also can be 158 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 4: taken the wrong way as well. So what we've noticed 159 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 4: is any sort of concern and economic data or any 160 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,720 Speaker 4: miss in economic data now has been really a focus. 161 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,600 Speaker 4: So my guess is that they'll be more conservative just 162 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,559 Speaker 4: to kind of keep things going smoothly. 163 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 2: I noted earlier that the swaps market is pricing in 164 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 2: a total of about one hundred basis points and easing 165 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 2: between now and the end of the year. Do you 166 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:51,439 Speaker 2: think that's a little too aggressive? 167 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 4: I mean it could be, because I guess you know, 168 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 4: if you've looked at the Fed over the last couple 169 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 4: of years, they have been a little bit slower to 170 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 4: kind of at moving, but then once they do, they 171 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 4: have moved quickly. 172 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 5: So for example with hikes and so. 173 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 4: I think after you start seeing that going, people are 174 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 4: anticipating that if it's if they're really needing to actually 175 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 4: cut rates, that they'll keep going quickly like they did 176 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 4: when they were hiking. 177 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 2: We were talking a moment ago about the disappointing guidance 178 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 2: from Broadcom chip Player. Obviously, this AI trade has been 179 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 2: so much of really why the equity market has performed 180 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 2: so well recently. Are you convinced that we are at 181 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,439 Speaker 2: a point now where the market really needs to come 182 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 2: to terms with the fact that we have yet to 183 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:40,839 Speaker 2: really see the ROI that's necessary to justify some of 184 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 2: the valuations in some of these AI related names. 185 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 4: I think the challenge with high evaluations like this is 186 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:53,239 Speaker 4: that they're very, very concentrated, and anytime markets are concentrated 187 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 4: in this way and you have positioning that came off 188 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 4: some but that has come back as well, there's still 189 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,199 Speaker 4: a lot of room where we might need to reprice, 190 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 4: especially with something so new like this. It's hard to 191 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:11,559 Speaker 4: estimate what the NPV of that particular. Those technologies are 192 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 4: so we could definitely have a repricing as we try 193 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 4: to figure out. 194 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 5: Where that's going to go later this year. 195 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 2: Historically the month of September is pretty dicey for the 196 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 2: equity market. Are we at risk of maybe a little 197 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 2: bit more downside? 198 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:27,719 Speaker 5: I would definitely say so. 199 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 4: I mean September and October are definitely tricky months for 200 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 4: equity markets. If you look at where trend positioning has moved, 201 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 4: you've also seen that as well, that's become much more reticent, 202 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:41,960 Speaker 4: and you've also seen a lot more risk off behavior 203 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 4: with stock bond correlations going back to normal. So in 204 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 4: that sense, I think people are nervous about what are 205 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 4: the ramifications of all the policy that we have sort 206 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 4: of endured in the last two. 207 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 5: Or three years. 208 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 2: We can talk about Fed policy, we can also talk 209 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 2: about fiscal policy, and let's talk about the Is that 210 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 2: pretty much noise at this point kind of around the 211 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 2: periphery of the market oors some of that the proposals 212 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 2: that we are hearing from either Trump or Harris. Is 213 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 2: that beginning to penetrate. 214 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 4: Well, I think it's adding to a lot of volatility 215 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 4: because it's really still even though it's only about two 216 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 4: months away, I feel like there's definitely still more volatility 217 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 4: in terms of different narratives we're seeing, and we've definitely 218 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 4: seen a lot more volatility in many different asset classes 219 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 4: that are much more directly impacted by policy choice. So, 220 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:37,959 Speaker 4: for example, if you look at the commodity sector, that 221 00:12:38,040 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 4: has definitely been in a downward trend, but it has 222 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 4: been moving around quite a bit, so I do think 223 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 4: that it's creating a lot of noise. 224 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:48,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking at crude oils sub seventy dollars, that's WTI. 225 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 2: So we had lower treasury yields today, not by much. 226 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 2: But one of the things that's been happening lately is 227 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 2: the dollar has been trading week. Is that a trend 228 00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 2: that you expect to continue or is this a bit 229 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 2: of an anomaly the dollar relative to some of the 230 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 2: other currencies around the world, particularly in Asia. I'm thinking 231 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 2: of the end especially, do you think the dollar is 232 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 2: going to recover a little bit? 233 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 4: Well, actually, the dollar has been very much under pressure 234 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 4: for the last few weeks. But we've been seeing increasing 235 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 4: signals of weakness and the dollar, and that doesn't surprise 236 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 4: me because in general, cuts particularly from the US FED, 237 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 4: is going to put pressure on the dollar, and so 238 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 4: we're definitely seeing that theme play out, but you also 239 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 4: see counter forces. So the dollar does tend to rally 240 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 4: when the equity market sells off, so you're seeing a 241 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 4: little bit of both. But it seems to be that 242 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 4: FED policy is really the biggest driver of the dollar 243 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 4: moves recently as we move into potential shift in policy. 244 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 2: So you seem a little cautious on risk assets here 245 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 2: in the US, and I'm wondering whether that is kind 246 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,839 Speaker 2: of motivating you to look offshore a little bit. Are 247 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 2: you doing that right now? 248 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:05,559 Speaker 4: So we're looking across equities, you're not seeing You're actually 249 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 4: seeing the US still being a little stronger than outside 250 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 4: the US. China in particular has shown more negative signals recently. 251 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 4: So I think there still is that US looks a 252 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 4: little bit better, that this idea of a self landing 253 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 4: is still on the table. 254 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 5: But I do think the biggest area. 255 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 4: We're looking at is much more how people are behaving 256 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 4: in other asset classes, particularly fixed income commodities, and how 257 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 4: that may play into sort of repricing the possibility of 258 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 4: a recessionary type move or a potential pullback this fall. 259 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 2: The flip side of some of the dollar weakness that 260 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 2: we were talking about a moment ago is the strength 261 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 2: that we have seen lately in the Japanese and some 262 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 2: of that is a Bank of Japan story. I get that, 263 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 2: and Governor Uwaita, the head of the BOJ, indicating that 264 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 2: the central bank there is inclined to titan Further, one 265 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 2: of the things it has to be looked at is 266 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 2: where the economy is overall and where inflation is in 267 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 2: Japan overall. But I think many of the folks that 268 00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 2: we chat with on the show are of the belief 269 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 2: that we could get another rate hike, albeit small, between 270 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 2: now and the end of the year from Japan. And 271 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 2: I'm wondering at what point this begins to create a 272 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 2: repatriation of Japanese money out of markets like let's say, 273 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 2: the US and back to Japan. Do you think that's 274 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 2: a real risk. 275 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 4: I mean, I think definitely, because what you're seeing right now, 276 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 4: especially when you look at the carry trade and what 277 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 4: happened in August, there has been a big retracement of 278 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 4: a lot of positioning, and I think if you start 279 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 4: to see that divergence where Japan is hiking and the 280 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 4: US has started a cutting cycle or an eating cycle 281 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 4: that creates another incentive which I think could definitely cause flows. 282 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 4: And you've already seen the power of that in August, 283 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 4: just with how much we saw that unwide and the 284 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 4: carry trade and how much the yen has been that 285 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 4: funding currency. So I think it could definitely be the case, 286 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 4: just how extremely different they are out of. 287 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 5: Cycle with everyone else. 288 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 2: So, Katie, last question, do you want to be exposed 289 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 2: to Japan right now? Is that a worthwhile trade for you? 290 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 4: I think it's a risky one right now, just because 291 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 4: of how you know, how dislocated it is from what's 292 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,360 Speaker 4: going on outside the US. But that means, you know, 293 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 4: from our perspective, that means that there could be very 294 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 4: interesting trends to follow going forward. 295 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 5: So maybe being long. 296 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 4: The end, which we're starting to see some indication, which 297 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 4: I think is is. 298 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 5: Definitely a change of pace since the last few years. 299 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 2: Katie, thank you so much for joining us here on 300 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 2: day Break Asia. A good weekend to you there in Boston, 301 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 2: Katie Kaminski, chief re search strategist at Alpha Simplex. Well, 302 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 2: the CIDIC CLSA Investor Forum will get underway at the 303 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 2: Grand hiatt in Hong Kong on Monday. This event will 304 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 2: feature a number of the region's most prominent market players 305 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,120 Speaker 2: joining us. Now for a little more is Sean cochrane. 306 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 2: He is head of research at CLSA, joining us from 307 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 2: our studios in Hong Kong. Good of you to make 308 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 2: time to chat with us. Thanks for dropping by. As 309 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 2: I understand it, this is the thirty first year of 310 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,919 Speaker 2: the forum. Can you help me understand what this is 311 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,679 Speaker 2: primarily known for sure? 312 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 6: Yeah, thirty one years indeed, And what we really do 313 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,199 Speaker 6: is we get about a couple of thousand investors to 314 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 6: come in and talk to over five hundred corporate representatives 315 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 6: to decide what's going on specifically within Asia, which is 316 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 6: our primary coverage focus, and of course within the world. 317 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 6: And it basically helps everyone take their view as to 318 00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 6: how they're going to help their clients or directly themselves 319 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 6: make money in markets. 320 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,199 Speaker 2: Do you aggregate these viewpoints to kind of come up 321 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:04,719 Speaker 2: with some cohesive viewpoint on how well the economies in 322 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,919 Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific are performing? I know there are individual 323 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 2: ones and there is a differentiator here when you consider 324 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 2: what's going on let's say in Nasie and versus China, 325 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 2: versus South Korea, versus Japan. But I'm wondering whether you're 326 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 2: able to formulate, given all of the diversity and viewpoint 327 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 2: some type of cohesive point of view. 328 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 6: Absolutely, so I guess the answer is both yes and no. 329 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 6: So let me start with the no and then go 330 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 6: to the yes and the no. Is that what Seelisa 331 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 6: loves to do is we call ourselves a house of 332 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 6: views rather than having a house view. We pride ourselves 333 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 6: in trying to provide insights to our clients, and we 334 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 6: have a hard time believing if we tell an analyst 335 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 6: they must take a certain assumption while doing their work 336 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 6: that they can truly believe, deliver conviction and provide their 337 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 6: best insights to clients. So we don't force cohesion. However, 338 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 6: of course I find the forum of myself personally extremely useful, 339 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 6: and we do provide reports to clients both throughout the 340 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,919 Speaker 6: course of the event and afterwards to put together that picture. Personally, 341 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 6: I find it quite useful because we can all look 342 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 6: at the data, but of course part of the data 343 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 6: can be revised up or down, and so it's that 344 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 6: aggregation of a huge amount of anecdote in one place 345 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 6: is incredibly valuable to come up with a really informed 346 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 6: you that is right on the pulse of what's happening 347 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 6: right now. 348 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 2: Is there a panel at this year's forum that you're 349 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 2: especially looking forward to. 350 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 6: Well, we actually pride ourselves and have an extraordinary amount 351 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 6: of content. So we have well over seventy direct speakers 352 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 6: throughout the course of the day, and we have over 353 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 6: thirteen thousand interactions that will occur during the week. But 354 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 6: if I think of some of the speakers and content 355 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 6: that I think investors will be most excited about. Obviously, 356 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 6: we have Frank Luntz, who will be speaking about the 357 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 6: likely outcome of the US election, and that's of course 358 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 6: important in terms of global policy and the state of 359 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 6: the US economy, which is a massive driver even here 360 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 6: in Asia. We have some interesting speakers as well, and 361 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 6: that we really pride ourselves on not just doing the 362 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 6: standard cookie cut of what you might expect of an 363 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,439 Speaker 6: investment house. So we have a diplomat that will be 364 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 6: talking about the state of geopolitics. We have macro specialists, 365 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 6: but the curveball sort of speakers that are really a 366 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 6: lot of fun. We have one speaker who's going to 367 00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 6: be talking about how to be indiestractable in a world 368 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 6: driven by devices and social media. We have another speaker 369 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 6: who's a former world class rugby player who looks at 370 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 6: the role of team cohesion and the success of team sports, 371 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 6: and we've collaborated on a report looks at how does 372 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 6: that apply to the investment world and to corporate environments. 373 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 6: We have another expert that works for sports legends around 374 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 6: how do I use breathing to perform? And this matters 375 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 6: even for say traders in a market environment where they're 376 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 6: trying to put on the best trade in the in 377 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 6: real time, manage their autonomous nervous system to perform really, 378 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 6: really well. And we even have a poker player that 379 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:48,400 Speaker 6: is helping us understand risk reward ratios to make sure 380 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 6: we can make great investment decisions. 381 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 2: Sounds like a stimulating forum. Indeed, when you consider the 382 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 2: role of government, are you inviting voices from various governments 383 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 2: to sit down at the table and to to share 384 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 2: their viewpoints as well? 385 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 6: Absolutely so. We have a government officials from multiple countries 386 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 6: that are presenting at the event, both at this event 387 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 6: and in previous events. So where there's a government official 388 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 6: that has a market message that's relevant to the market, 389 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 6: or they need access to investors to understand what investors 390 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:21,679 Speaker 6: are thinking, or even they need access to corporates, then 391 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 6: this is obviously a fantastic forum for them to do it. 392 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,399 Speaker 6: And so it's part and parcel of our event. 393 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 2: You mentioned Frank Launce there and kind of the US perspective. 394 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 2: I'm wondering when you consider US China relations right now, 395 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:35,719 Speaker 2: whether this is going to be top of the line 396 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 2: for this year's forum. 397 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 6: It's always a topic that's very, very important for investors. 398 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 6: Over the last several years, the strategic competition between the 399 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 6: US and China has created massive policy change, and certainly 400 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 6: Frank can help us understand the likelihood of say a 401 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,200 Speaker 6: Trump or Harris administration winning the election, which would lead 402 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 6: to obviously different policy implementations around how that relationship evolves. 403 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,199 Speaker 6: Although what's interesting is there does seem to be a 404 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 6: degree of cohesion in terms of the US platform around 405 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 6: China that has evolved since the first administration of Trump. 406 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 2: Can you give me a sense of the commonality that 407 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 2: exists when you kind of assess the economic situation in China. 408 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,920 Speaker 2: I think it's a foregone conclusion that things are really 409 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 2: weak right now and people have been waiting for a 410 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 2: more robust response on the part of the government. But 411 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 2: is the collective viewpoint from the world that you live 412 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 2: in and the people that you speak with, is that 413 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 2: a lot more needs to be done before we can 414 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,479 Speaker 2: say that China is beginning to turn a corner. 415 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 6: Yes, certainly, I don't since within our client base or 416 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 6: even within our own analyst group an expectation of imminent change, 417 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 6: and we also would not expect a dramatic policy shift 418 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 6: out of the Chinese regulators and policymakers. From the investors 419 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,560 Speaker 6: point of view, there has been the presumption that China 420 00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 6: will remain slow for some time, and that is a 421 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 6: reasonable proposition to take if we try to look forward 422 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 6: about the growth prospects for the Chinese economy. It's a 423 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,360 Speaker 6: structural challenge that China is seeking to address, and it's 424 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 6: really a question of how do you address it. China 425 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 6: has taken the view that it does not want to 426 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 6: pursue aggressive policy to accelerate the change because it wants 427 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,160 Speaker 6: to think about the cost of that policy. It's reluctant 428 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 6: to issue significant federal level debt that would then obviously 429 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,199 Speaker 6: create costs of its own, which is often different to 430 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 6: what we see in some Western Economies. 431 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 2: Sean, thank you so much for making time to chat 432 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 2: with us and helping us set up this year's CIDIC 433 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 2: CLSA Investor Forum, which gets underway Monday in Hong Kong. 434 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 2: He is Sean Cochrane, head of Research at CLSA, joining 435 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 2: us from our studios in Hong Kong. This has been 436 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making 437 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 2: news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the 438 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more episodes of 439 00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,160 Speaker 2: this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to the pot 440 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 2: Cast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and 441 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 2: always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg 442 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 2: Business app