1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:12,120 Speaker 2: This is the Bally Big Day BAK podcast. Good morning, 3 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 2: It's Monday, the eighth of December. I'm Caroline hepkea in 4 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 2: London and. 5 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:19,279 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today. JP Morgan CEO 6 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: Jamie Diamond warns Europe has a real problem of bureaucracy 7 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: driving out business, but cautions the real loser could be 8 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: the US. 9 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 2: The UK's Prime Minister, Kiss Starmer, hosts Vlodomir Zelinsky in 10 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 2: London along with the leaders of France and Germany as 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 2: Europe seeks to steer US led peace talks with Russia. 12 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: Plus there a reformer UK parties invoking Margaret Patcher's Big 13 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: Bang in an effort to win over the UK's finance industry. 14 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 3: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. 15 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Diamond says European bureaucracy is having 16 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: a significant impact on the continent's growth prospects and that 17 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: quote week Europe poses a major economic risk to the 18 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: United States. Speaking over the weekend to Bloomberg's Caroline Hid 19 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 1: at the Reagan National Defense Forum, the head of America's 20 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: largest bank offered this warning for the continent. 21 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 4: They do some wonderful things on their safety nets, but 22 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 4: they've driven business out, they've driven investment out, they've driven 23 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 4: innovation out. It's kind of coming back. I think the 24 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 4: leadership Merz, McCrone, Maloney, Stormer, I think they know. I 25 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 4: just think politics is really, really hard. 26 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: While Diamond criticized Europe, he was also clear that the 27 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 1: fracturing of the continents could become a major problem for 28 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 1: the US. 29 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 4: If they fragment, you know, then you can say that 30 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 4: you know that America first will not be around anymore. 31 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 4: We It will hurt us more than anybody else, because 32 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 4: they are a major ally in every single way, including 33 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 4: common values, which are really important. So therefore, I think 34 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 4: we should be using our American capability strained coercion, democracy, trade, 35 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 4: investment to urge them to do it in their own 36 00:01:58,520 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 4: self interest. 37 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: Diamond's comments come at a difficult time for US European relations, 38 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: as the two sides find themselves increasingly at odds on 39 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 1: issues ranging from Ukraine to trade and regulation. This fracturing 40 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 1: of sentiment was underlined on Friday when the Trump administration 41 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: issued a new national security strategy that described Europe as 42 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: a continent heading towards quote civilizational erasure now. 43 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 2: The British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host Ukrainian President 44 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:30,799 Speaker 2: Vlodomir Zelinsky in London later today for talks that end 45 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 2: the war with Russia. The leaders of France and Germany 46 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 2: will also join the meeting, which coincides with talks between 47 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 2: Ukrainian and US officials on a controversial Washington Bank proposal 48 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:46,080 Speaker 2: to end the war. President Trump says that discussions with 49 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 2: Moscow and Kiev are ongoing. 50 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 5: Russia, I guess we would rather have the whole country 51 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 5: when you think of it. But Russia is I believe, 52 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 5: fine with it, but I'm not sure that Zelinsky is 53 00:02:58,639 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 5: fine with it. 54 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 6: His people love it. 55 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 2: Trump added that he is disappointed in President Zvilenski's handling 56 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 2: of the US peace plan. The Kremlin has yet to 57 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 2: fully endorse any of its proposals. 58 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 1: Mean, while the US president has also flagged concerns over 59 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: Netflix's planned seventy two billion dollar acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery. 60 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: The deal, which is still in its early stages, would 61 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,359 Speaker 1: bring together the world's dominant streaming service and the iconic 62 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: Hollywood movie studio praising the Netflix co CEO Ted Surroundos, 63 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: who he met recently. Donald Trump hinted that regulators could 64 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: take issue with the size of the combined entity. 65 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 5: And he's done one of the greatest jobs in the 66 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 5: history of movies and other things. And he's got a 67 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 5: lot of interesting things happening aside from what you're talking about. 68 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 7: But it is a big market share. 69 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 6: There's a question, but it could be a problem. 70 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: President Trump there, who hosted Throundos of the White House 71 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: in mid November, where the pair discussed the deal. Thround 72 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: Us reportedly left with the impression that Netflix wouldn't face 73 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 1: immediate opposition from the White House, contrary to the claims 74 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: of rival bitter paramount Skydouance. 75 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 2: Now global asset managers remain in risk on mode and 76 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 2: optimistic about stocks. In twenty twenty six, According to a 77 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 2: new Bloomberg survey, more than eighty five percent of allocators 78 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 2: who were interviewed said that valuations among the Magnificent Seven 79 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 2: and other AI heavyweights are not overly inflated. The news 80 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 2: comes after veterans Tratchus Edie R. Denny told Bloomberg his 81 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 2: firm is pivoting to underweight on tech megacaps for the 82 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: first time in fifteen years. 83 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 5: It's hard to recommend overweighting something that's already quite overweight. 84 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 5: I mean, if you just told people just to maintain 85 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 5: the current weight of the index, that would still be 86 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 5: an overweight position relative to what most people will think 87 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 5: would be a diversified portfolio. 88 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 2: Edir Denny, speaking to Bloomberg TV. A gauge of Magnificent 89 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 2: seven stocks includes Nvidia, Meta and Alphabet has risen more 90 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 2: than six hundred percent since the end of twenty nineteen, 91 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 2: while the S and P five hundred has gained one 92 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 2: hundred and thirteen percent. 93 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 1: China's top leaders have made strengthening the domestic market their 94 00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: top economic priority for next year is beijing seats of 95 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: buffer against risks from global trade. The Communist Party's decision 96 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 1: making Polet Bureau pledged during its December meeting to adhere 97 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: to domestic demand as the main driver and build a 98 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: strong domestic market. Senior leaders found to keep their more 99 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: proactive fiscal policy and maintain a moderately loose monetary stance 100 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:39,920 Speaker 1: while aiming for a good start to the next five 101 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,479 Speaker 1: year economic planning period that starts in twenty twenty six. 102 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 1: This comes as China's exports rebounded in November, pushing the 103 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: trade surplus past a record one trillion dollars. That's despite 104 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,039 Speaker 1: chippings to the US plummeting by twenty nine percent. 105 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 2: Now, some of the UK's most sought after properties could 106 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 2: see valuations fall steep next year. That's according to new 107 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:05,960 Speaker 2: forecasts from a London property firm. Bloomberg's team at Adebayo 108 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 2: has the story. 109 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,799 Speaker 8: Homes in the UK worth more than two million pounds 110 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 8: cold phase a five percent drop in value next year, 111 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 8: according to London estate agents Hampton's. That says the market 112 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 8: adjust to a new so called mansion tax due to 113 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 8: come into force next April. The broker said it expected 114 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 8: these homes, most of which are in London, to see 115 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 8: a one off adjustment in twenty twenty six based on 116 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 8: the price of reductions that factor in the new levee. 117 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 8: A five percent price correction would be the largest annual 118 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 8: drop in value since two thousand and nine, according to 119 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 8: Hampton's data in London, t were ated Bio Bloomberg Radio. 120 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 3: Those are top stories for you this morning. 121 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 5: Now. 122 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 2: Looking at the markets, most Asian markets seeing some small gains. 123 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 2: A CSI three hundred, they're gained one percent. As we mentioned, 124 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 2: exports from China surging especially to Europe, Japan and elsewhere 125 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 2: away from the US, so Europe stop futures. Meanwhile, for 126 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 2: the stocks fifty are actually down a tenth of one percent. 127 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 2: US stock futures just about in the green today. 128 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 3: The dollar is weakening. 129 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 2: They're edging just high, about a tenth of one percent, 130 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 2: but everybody is focused on what is expected to be 131 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 2: an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the 132 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 2: US on Wednesday. Treasury yield steady this morning at ten 133 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 2: year yields trading at four fourteen at the moment, Bring 134 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 2: Crew futures trading around sixty three dollars a bow. 135 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 3: Those are the markets. 136 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: In a moment, we'll bring you more on those comments 137 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,559 Speaker 1: from Jamie Diamond and why they're warning to both Europe 138 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: and the US, plus a look at Reform UK's efforts 139 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: to woo City of London bankers. The first. Another story 140 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: that we've been reading this morning on the games that 141 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: finance experts play and how that play interacts with their work. 142 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 1: So our colleagues Mcraspinberg newsmen speaking to investment pros that 143 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: are passionate game players and puzzle solvers. Now, it didn't 144 00:07:57,280 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: surprise me that poker came quite high up in this list. 145 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: There's quite some questioning reflections though, on what poker actually 146 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: teaches you about this so too. There's one options trader 147 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: that our colleague spoke to who said that she learned 148 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: a lot about risk management from poker, and a lot 149 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: of people only question the hands they lose, but questioning 150 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 1: the hands you win can be equally important if you 151 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: win them poorly. Is the point the cheesemaking is that 152 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 1: perhaps you need to be thinking also about what the 153 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 1: win looks like as well. There's also a group of 154 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 1: high Flowers that do role playing about killing werewolves in Singapore, 155 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: which I really enjoyed, Like it sort of really speaks 156 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: to you know, the kind of playwork, dynamic, yes and that, 157 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: and how it works out for people. I don't know 158 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: what stood. 159 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 2: Out for you for those parager, Yeah, you're the different 160 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 2: kind of personas that you might have. I absolutely love games, 161 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 2: as you know, and I found this very interesting. I 162 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 2: thought that the number of bankers and other finance folk 163 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 2: who invented their own games was quite genius. To be honest, 164 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 2: I like games are very very old things like backgammon 165 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,439 Speaker 2: and checkers, the kind of and true in certain card 166 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 2: games as well. But yeah, I really I do love 167 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,839 Speaker 2: this story. I think it was very interesting that they 168 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 2: talked about, you know, gamesmanship, and obviously that maybe if 169 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 2: you beat your opponent, you know in in work fairly 170 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 2: and squarely rather than she's then obviously that is something 171 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,200 Speaker 2: that will be well respected. Maybe that's not true in 172 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 2: all games. 173 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 1: But something that didn't shine for me in this was 174 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 1: the fact that winning didn't wasn't really the key part. 175 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 1: It was actually the analysis of how you did it. 176 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: That seems to be the part that a lot of 177 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 1: these players focus on, and the idea of making cool 178 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: headed decisions at a difficult time. It wasn't as driven 179 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: by a win that I would have expected. 180 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think it's the fun of playing 181 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 2: and understanding how somebody else's mind works. 182 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 3: That's the revealing thing. How did that person make the 183 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 3: decision that counts? 184 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: Caroline clearly you can read the four piece on Blue Verga. 185 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 1: Carminal put an ink to it in our podcast show 186 00:09:57,559 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: notes as well. 187 00:09:58,679 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 2: Well. 188 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: That's bringing more now in those from Jamie Diamond and 189 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: what he sees as the challenges facing Europe. This as 190 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 1: the leaders of France, Germany in the UK are meeting 191 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: Ukraine's at Presidence Lanski in London today at a critical 192 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: time for that country's future. Our Chief her of correspondent 193 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: Oliver Croke joins us now for more over good morning. 194 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 1: Starting with what we heard from Jamie Diamond over the 195 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: weekend week Europe was the message that he was directing 196 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: who's he making these comments for? 197 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 9: I suspect he's making it to a number of obviously 198 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 9: national leaders, but also here in Brussels, being directed at 199 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 9: the European Commission, because obviously the last sort of year, 200 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 9: this new commission has all been about improving European competitiveness, 201 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 9: reducing regulation, though they won't use the word deregulation, this 202 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 9: has sort of been the spirit within the sort of 203 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 9: European Commission. And there's obviously been a perception that moving 204 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 9: movement on that has been very, very slow, and some 205 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 9: of the refrains that we heard from Jamie Diamond are 206 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 9: not shocking to hear from American business, you know, suggesting 207 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 9: that basically there's too much bureaucracy, the Common Market has 208 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 9: not made enough, has not made enough forward progress there's 209 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 9: too much fragmentation. Innovation is basically fleeing Europe, is what 210 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 9: he's suggesting. But what I think is interesting is when 211 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 9: he was asked basically and he said that if we 212 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 9: write a book about how the West was lost, it'll 213 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,600 Speaker 9: be because the US failed on policy, US did not 214 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 9: have the strongest military, but also because they allowed Europe 215 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 9: to fall apart. Basically, Jamie Diamond really seeing that the 216 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 9: success of Europe and the success of the United States, 217 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 9: these two destinies are really sort of put together, and 218 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 9: that these are things that he really says that the 219 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 9: United States actually needs to help Europe in order to 220 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,199 Speaker 9: be a catalyst from the exterior to try to get 221 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 9: their act together. And that's kind of how he sees 222 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 9: the United States's role in all this. 223 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's interesting because in some ways that could 224 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 2: be seen as a supportive message to Europe. And it 225 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 2: comes after the Trump administration published this National Security Report, 226 00:11:40,200 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 2: which doesn't usually get a huge amount of attention, but 227 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 2: it did over the weekend because it repeats some of 228 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 2: the US President's more controversial rhetoric about Europe, including that 229 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 2: Europe faces in this report quote civilizational Erasia. Is this 230 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 2: a reminder of the tensions in the US the relationship 231 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 2: is it more than that? 232 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 3: What do people take from this report? 233 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 9: I think they're going to be analyzing this report for 234 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 9: a while to come. I mean, there are sort of 235 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 9: very interesting portions of this, particularly the European portion, a 236 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 9: lot of interesting reading. But basically some of it is 237 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:16,439 Speaker 9: just formalizing what we've heard from the Trump administration time 238 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 9: and again, which is basically suggesting that the days of 239 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 9: the US propping up the entire world order like Atlas 240 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 9: are over. 241 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 6: That's directly from the report. 242 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 9: But again, I think what is interesting is this stuff 243 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 9: specifically to Europe, saying that basically that the United States 244 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 9: wants to end the perception and prevent the reality of 245 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 9: NATO as perpetually expanding alliance. This is now basically formal 246 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 9: American foreign policy posture, talking about cultivating resistance to Europe's 247 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 9: current trajectory within European nations, ie the United States would 248 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:48,119 Speaker 9: be active in some way to promoting certain domestic agendas 249 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 9: within Europe, and also suggesting that basically over the next 250 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 9: couple of decades that European nations may not be that 251 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 9: European ie the sort of constituent members and the citizens 252 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 9: of the nations would not be quote unquote Europeans, suggesting 253 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 9: that maybe then they could be unreliable allies as a 254 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 9: consequence of that, that is the preoccupation for the Trump administration. 255 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 9: What I think is interesting in the sort of contrast 256 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 9: that you see with what we're seeing from Jamie Diamond 257 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 9: is on the one hand, Jamie Diamond is saying we 258 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 9: need to help out Europe, we need to make it 259 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 9: a stronger sort of unified block. This is suggesting that 260 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 9: the Trump administration wants to see more nationalism within Europe, 261 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 9: a more fragmented Europe, and potentially, as a consequence, a 262 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 9: more docile Europe in terms of dealing with major issues 263 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 9: with the United States like trade. 264 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 5: Yeah. 265 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: Indeed, and look, as you say, very interesting to see 266 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: which points of these that we've heard often from the 267 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 1: President before have been repeated in this document too. All 268 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: of this, Oliver, is the context to another meeting that 269 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 1: we have today, the French, German and British leaders meeting 270 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: in London with Vlage Maya Zelenski. What can they hope 271 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 1: to achieve now given the state of where talks are, 272 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: which seems to be largely taking plaks between the US 273 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 1: and Russia. 274 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think again, we've never had a 275 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 9: meeting between these four leaders or a coalition of the 276 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 9: willing meeting in the last couple of weeks and months 277 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 9: where anything significant, basically publicly has come from afterwards. So 278 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 9: I think that from that perspective, you know, again, the 279 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 9: Europeans want to get their ducks in a row. 280 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 6: They want to support Zelenski. We had some of the 281 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 6: sort of leaked. 282 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 9: Meetings among European leaders really expressing concern that the United 283 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 9: States might sell out the Ukrainians. But again they have 284 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,719 Speaker 9: not come out with a sort of a critical or 285 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 9: any kind of concrete way of trying to help the Ukrainians. 286 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 9: I think for us, sitting here in Brussels, Stephen is 287 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 9: looking at the next week and a half. This is 288 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 9: your die time for the Russian assets, for the European leaders, there's. 289 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 6: That European Council meeting at the end of next week. 290 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:29,760 Speaker 9: If Europe is going to move on this and it's 291 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 9: going to have any significance, it's going to have to 292 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 9: be decided basically in the next week and a half. 293 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: Okay, Archie, if you're a correspondent to Oliver Crook, thank 294 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: you very much. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybreak 295 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: Europe coming up after this. 296 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 2: Now, Reform UK's Nigel Faras is invoking Margaret Thatcher's Big 297 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 2: Bang to woo City of London bankers to only us 298 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 2: now to discuss. As Bloomberg City editor Kapain Griffiths, what 299 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 2: is Reform UK's pitch now to bankers because of I 300 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 2: see the idea of rekindling Margaret Thatcher's day, you know that, 301 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 2: the heyday of the finance industry. Maybe in London. That's 302 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 2: not new. It's how you do it. 303 00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 10: Yes, absolutely, it is how you do it. And we've 304 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 10: had lots of people coming along in the last few 305 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 10: years in the wake of Brexit trying to sort of 306 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 10: kind of grasp for that, you know, Margaret Thatcher Big 307 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 10: Bang magic, and Richard Tice was the latest to try 308 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 10: to do that. A few weeks ago he made a 309 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 10: significant speech in the City of London to some bankers 310 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 10: and property people and reform supporters and he actually went 311 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 10: down reasonably well with the people in the room. His 312 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 10: sort of plan, and it's at a very incipient stage 313 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 10: at this point, is to try to be radical. He says, 314 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 10: let's use this moment in the electoral cycle a few 315 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 10: years out from the next general election to think big 316 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 10: thoughts was one of his pitches. He also mentioned some 317 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 10: things which we've all heard before, so that's pensions reforms, 318 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 10: ISA reforms, let's cut the tax code. But I think 319 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 10: it might be some sense that this sort of we're outsiders, 320 00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 10: yet we're also business people that for some people in 321 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 10: the business world and the city world might actually find 322 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 10: slightly enticing. 323 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: Well's, I suppose. My next question really is is about 324 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: the traction that these ideas are getting. As you say, 325 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: not all of them are things these people are unfamiliar 326 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: with hearing, but is it going to bring the supporters 327 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: that reform UK once from these City of London figures. 328 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 10: So I think it's the city's got very mixed views 329 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 10: about reform at this point, and I imagine we'll continue 330 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 10: to have very mixed views about reform. But one thing 331 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 10: Reform has done, which it is probably quite smart given 332 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 10: that they themselves have very little infrastructure, is they've said, okay, 333 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 10: City of London, you give us your ideas. They've set 334 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 10: up various working parties, they're using a think tank that's 335 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 10: very closely affiliated to the party to ask people to 336 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,119 Speaker 10: kind of join in with those working parties. 337 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 7: And it comes at a quite opportune time for. 338 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 10: Reform because there really is a very strong sense of 339 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,919 Speaker 10: dissatisfaction out there in the city with the Labor Party 340 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 10: the governing party, and a sense that some people detect 341 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 10: some sort of signs of life among the Tory Party, 342 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 10: but it's still very much the jury is out there. 343 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 7: So the city wants. 344 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 10: An opportunity to kind of put forward its ideas and 345 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 10: I think to that extent at least it will engage 346 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 10: with this reform process. 347 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 3: That's interesting. 348 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, And indeed we spoke to Richard Tys on Brimberg 349 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,680 Speaker 2: Grady just after the budget to get his ideas, and 350 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 2: it is a very important moment, isn't it. The other 351 00:17:56,080 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 2: way though, that they maybe are gaining traction is around 352 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:04,880 Speaker 2: donations and kind of engaging with people in that way 353 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 2: and the kind of support that is being shown. I mean, 354 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,640 Speaker 2: you talk about them kind of mixed messaging or mixed 355 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 2: feelings maybe in the City of London, but the donations 356 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 2: we are beginning to see some more, aren't we. 357 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, we absolutely are. 358 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 10: So last week it was really quite a surprising disclosure. 359 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 10: For the third quarter of the year, we saw Reform 360 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 10: get nine million pounds from one donor alone, a guy 361 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 10: called Christopher Harborne, who is a crypto investor, among having 362 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 10: other business interests. 363 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 7: He's given already quite. 364 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 10: A lot of money to Reform over time, but certainly 365 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 10: it comes at this moment I think where well, in 366 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 10: practical terms, Reform needs money because it needs to build 367 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 10: out its infrastructure. It's only got five MP's. It's you know, 368 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 10: it's saying it's going to field MPs across the whole 369 00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 10: the whole of the House of Commons, so it's going 370 00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 10: to help need an awful lot of money to get 371 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 10: to that. But at the same time, it's just one quarter. 372 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 10: Probably the momentum is with reform at the moment. In 373 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 10: this last quarter, Reform in total gathered up just over 374 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 10: ten million pounds, which is really quite a lot of 375 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 10: money for just one quarter. In contrast, the Tories got 376 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 10: just over just under five million and Labour got just 377 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:27,439 Speaker 10: over two million, So it's comparatively reformers looking in good shape. 378 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 10: But I think there's a long way still to go 379 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 10: before the election. Reform is certainly surrounded by a certain 380 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 10: amount of controversy and challenge, and the city, particularly the 381 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 10: kind of the core big banks element of the city, 382 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 10: don't like controversy and challenge. 383 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 7: So we'll see what happens. 384 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,679 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. 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