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Speaker 1: The volume here with my main man, Stucky. You can

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Speaker 1: hear him every week. Action Network podcast comes up Thursday morning,

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Speaker 1: so go subscribe to that rough week Last week, Stucky,

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Speaker 1: I did too. I mean I lost a lot of money.

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Speaker 1: The Rams I just got, I mean they look like

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Speaker 1: ship Carolina and shambles and the Texans who I looked

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Speaker 1: up it felt like they were a lock. And then

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden later Sunday night, I didn't wasn't

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Speaker 1: even paying attention. I saw this clip of Zack Wilson

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Speaker 1: getting interviewed after the game on the field. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: the Jets won this game. I didn't watch one snap

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Speaker 1: of that bad boy, but we had a rough weekend, Stucky. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was a good, good Thanksgiving and then gave it

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Speaker 1: all back plus some on Sunday is also a This

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Speaker 1: is also a very rough Sunday car just like last

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Speaker 1: week and terrible. At the end of the year, the

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Speaker 1: lines are starting to get more efficient and then especially

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Speaker 1: this week, it is you go down in the car

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Speaker 1: and it is just seven, eight, nine, ten point road

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Speaker 1: favorites in division never easy. So I wouldn't go crazy

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Speaker 1: on anything this week, but I did find some some

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Speaker 1: bets worth throwing a little bit of money down on

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Speaker 1: this week. Well, I I told you last week. My

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Speaker 1: favorite bet of the week was Steelers again four and

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Speaker 1: a half at the Bengals. I watched that game the

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Speaker 1: other day on the game pass. The Bengals beat the

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Speaker 1: living ship out of them, and they looked. I mean

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Speaker 1: the Bengals look good. I I didn't. Their offense looks remarkable,

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Speaker 1: but the Steelers just saw a headline. Tomlin put them

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Speaker 1: through a physical practice on Wednesday. Uh, this is you know,

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Speaker 1: I think it's safe to say they're seasons on the line,

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Speaker 1: especially if you assume some of these six and five

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Speaker 1: teams in the a f C are gonna win, that

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Speaker 1: the Steelers would be in trouble, little must win spot.

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Speaker 1: Even I don't even know if they're gonna win, but

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Speaker 1: you would assume this game would be a little closer.

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Speaker 1: So I guess I would go back to the Well,

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Speaker 1: Steelers plus four and a half. What say you? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I leaned the Steelers last week. I unfortunately didn't play them,

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Speaker 1: didn't throw more money away last Sunday, but I did

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Speaker 1: play them this week, and I'm just I'm a the

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Speaker 1: only team I really care about as better as I'm

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Speaker 1: a I'm a Ravens fan, and the one thing that

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Speaker 1: I do know is the Ravens fan as you throw

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Speaker 1: out anything that's going on with these teams when they

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Speaker 1: play records. I mean, look at last year the Ravens

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Speaker 1: junior j v COVID team went in the Pits, undefeated

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh team and almost beat him. These teams just know

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Speaker 1: each other so well. Since hardball arrived in two thousand

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Speaker 1: and eight, the Ravens are thirteen and thirteen against the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: and seventeen of the twenty six games have been decided

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Speaker 1: by four points or last twenty by one possession. Here's

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Speaker 1: the craziest part. When either of these teams is favored

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Speaker 1: by three or more points and its head to head

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and eight, the favorite is one thirteen

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Speaker 1: and two against the spread. This just this game just

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Speaker 1: always ends up coming down to a field goal. The

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Speaker 1: underdog finds a way to win, and you're right, this

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Speaker 1: is a classic Tomas spot. It doesn't work out every time,

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Speaker 1: but Tomlin last week not as much of a Thomas spot.

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Speaker 1: They they had a good effort against the Chargers given

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Speaker 1: how much they were missing. But now after getting embarrassed.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, do you know who also got

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Speaker 1: embarrassed by the Bengals was the Ravens at home? They

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Speaker 1: lost by thirty five and the very similar, very similar

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Speaker 1: as kicking. Yeah, and the rains have not been great.

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Speaker 1: I mean no, think Look, they didn't deserve to win

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Speaker 1: that game last week. They get their asses kicked by

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins on Thursday night. This is a team that

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Speaker 1: to come back against the Vikings at home. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I can go on and on. They have not looked great.

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Speaker 1: Six and oh and one possession games, third team in

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Speaker 1: the last thirty years to have five fourth quarter comebacks

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Speaker 1: in their first ten games. So this team is just

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Speaker 1: really just skating by a lot of injuries. Still, offense

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Speaker 1: doesn't look great. And the Tomlin spot, he's thirty five

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Speaker 1: sixteen and two against the spread as a dog from

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Speaker 1: week three on eight and one against the spread as

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Speaker 1: an underdog versus an opponent with an equal betting record,

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Speaker 1: twelve three and two against the spread as a home dog.

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Speaker 1: Uh and uh. By the way, teams failing to cover

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Speaker 1: by over twenty eight points the previous week over the

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Speaker 1: last twenty years or six against the spread the next

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Speaker 1: week Steelers fit that category this week. And the Mark

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Speaker 1: Jackson just hasn't looked great in his career against the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: They played very well against him, three touchdowns, five picks.

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Speaker 1: Hasn't ran it well either. These teams are very familiar

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Speaker 1: with each other. Must win for the Steelers. I think

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Speaker 1: this is too many points. You gotta take them. With

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Speaker 1: the Steelers at home, even without watch well, you and

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Speaker 1: I probably three or four weeks ago said keep an

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Speaker 1: eye on the Niners night or start rolling. They played

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Speaker 1: Minnesota last week. Kind of similar teams. I think both

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Speaker 1: you know, could be anyone on any Gift and day. Uh. Minnesota,

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Speaker 1: like justin Jefferson's a star obviously now Dalvin Cook's out,

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Speaker 1: but Madison is a good player. They have some issues

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Speaker 1: on defense, but they are so much better than the Lions.

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Speaker 1: And it does feel like, I mean, the Lions headed

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Speaker 1: toward a winless season. You know, at least they got

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Speaker 1: a tie, you know, but this week Minnesota, despite you know,

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Speaker 1: losing that game, they're still in the seventh seat and

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Speaker 1: if they win this game, they'll still be in very

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Speaker 1: good shape. A ton of other teams, or you saw

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, like they're they're not anything. The Saints are

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Speaker 1: in shambles. Carolina's done, like those two last two spots

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Speaker 1: should be the Niners in Minnesota, and I you know,

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Speaker 1: you would think even though that was a pretty big

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Speaker 1: kick in the you know what last week to lose

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Speaker 1: that game, they still control their own destiny. I do

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Speaker 1: like them this week against the Lions, how about you? Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I agree. And not a huge edge here. I mean

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Speaker 1: you're still laying seven seven on the road and division

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Speaker 1: against a team that's still a little it's it's still

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Speaker 1: very desperate to get their first win. But this is

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Speaker 1: a bad football team and you're right by and by

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Speaker 1: the way, the forty diners. It's a huge win just

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Speaker 1: if it comes if someone else does sneak up and

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Speaker 1: they hold that tiebreaker as we talked about. But the Lions,

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Speaker 1: look when you look at their offense, I mean, golf

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Speaker 1: is we know Batty's doesn't have many weapons. The one,

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Speaker 1: you know, the one guy that can make some explosive

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Speaker 1: plays in the run game and then out of the

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Speaker 1: backfield is DeAndre Swift. Well he's out a couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: So now it's Dan Campbell taking over play calling from

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Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn and we saw how that worked out of Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: It's just let's run a draw. That's run another draw,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll run another draw. And he said that

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Speaker 1: we're gonna gonna play scared and that's all they did

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Speaker 1: is run draws uh to Williams. So that's not working

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Speaker 1: out well. And he said he's gonna take heap to

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Speaker 1: play calling duties until the end of the year. And

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Speaker 1: then on the other side of the ball, with their defense,

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Speaker 1: it's one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. They

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Speaker 1: can't stop the pass, they cannot get any pressure. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook is hurt. I think that works out for

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Speaker 1: the Vikings here. That means becauses to be passing more

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Speaker 1: just to Feeland and Jefferson against the secondary that cannot

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Speaker 1: defend them. I think the Vikings come out here in

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Speaker 1: a game where there's almost no home field advantage. Right

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Speaker 1: in division, you're familiar with the environment, indoors on a

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Speaker 1: fast track, and I mean, how many fans are gonna

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Speaker 1: be there for this after you know you lost Thanksgiving

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Speaker 1: game row ten and one. So I think that the

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Speaker 1: Vikings get this done by at least a touchdown. Sunday

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Speaker 1: Night Football, the games we've got flex. Denver has to

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Speaker 1: be have one of the most bizarre seasons of the year,

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Speaker 1: because if you watch them on the right weekend, you go,

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Speaker 1: this is a six seventh seat, right, And if you

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Speaker 1: watch them on the wrong weekend, you go, God, this

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Speaker 1: is a team drafted in the top ten. We know

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Speaker 1: the divisional games are tough. Uh, you know, it's kind

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Speaker 1: of crazy when you look at the a f C

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Speaker 1: West standings. Obviously the Chiefs are in first seven and four,

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Speaker 1: every other team six and five. So I mean it's

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Speaker 1: it's not inconceivable that the Bronco are you were to

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Speaker 1: win this game, you know, we'd be it'd be a

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Speaker 1: playoff team. So ten points to me, stucky for a

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Speaker 1: divisional game with a team that it does have a

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Speaker 1: good defense, seems like a lot. Yeah. Yeah, it's the

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Speaker 1: same thing with the you know, the the Steelers and

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Speaker 1: the Browns and last like they just they're still right there.

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Speaker 1: Um similar divisions. But yeah, I think that this is

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Speaker 1: too many points. If you can get the ten, if

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Speaker 1: you need to be buy the ten of minus one fifteen,

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Speaker 1: Denver has been I mean, Kanda City has owned Denver.

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Speaker 1: I was like, I was thinking of myself when the

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Speaker 1: last time they beat Kansas City, I couldn't think of it.

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Speaker 1: I went back and check. Kansas City has won eleven

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Speaker 1: in a row against Denver, which is just crazy. But

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Speaker 1: it's a lot. This is uh, it's too many points. Look,

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Speaker 1: de Banco should have the tackles back. Their offense is

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Speaker 1: playing pretty well. I mean they're great out around, like

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Speaker 1: the eleventh the twelfth best offense in the NFL, and

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Speaker 1: they've had a lot of injuries at receiver the offensive line.

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Speaker 1: Bridgewater is playing at an extremely high level. He's second

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Speaker 1: in the NFL if you look at a metric called

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Speaker 1: e p A plus completion percentage over expectation composite, only

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Speaker 1: Murray Kyler Murray is higher. Mahomes for references ninth. Bridgewater

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Speaker 1: twenty six and nine against the spread as an underdog

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Speaker 1: in his career, just crazy, twenty and five as a

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Speaker 1: road dog, and as a road dog over a field goal,

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Speaker 1: he's fifteen and two, eight point two. The Chiefs defense,

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Speaker 1: I will give you, is better or they've got some

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Speaker 1: guys healthy. They moved some pieces around and they stopped

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Speaker 1: eating sore int it as much. But it's still not

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Speaker 1: a great defense. It's not you know, historically bad, but

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Speaker 1: it's still not above average. So I think that the

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Speaker 1: Broncos can move the ball. The Broncos defense also is

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Speaker 1: kind of built two you know, use the the scheme

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Speaker 1: that's been giving the Chiefs issues, you know, too deep safeties,

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Speaker 1: and they have two really good safeties, make them work

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Speaker 1: down the field, hold them to field goals in the

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Speaker 1: red zone. Broncos, by the way, lead the NFL and

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Speaker 1: redso defense in twenty nineteen leather red zone defense team

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Speaker 1: in the NFL is story to lead him back to

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Speaker 1: back years their top ten again this year, So I

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Speaker 1: think that they can you know, take away the deep play.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs still trying to figure out how to make that work.

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Speaker 1: Uh And the Chiefs just because of the defense, because

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Speaker 1: the offense isn't firing as much as it was us,

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Speaker 1: they've been an awful favor lately. Seven and fifteen is

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Speaker 1: a favorite the last two years, two and thirteen against

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Speaker 1: the spread as a favorite over a field goal in

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Speaker 1: their last fifteen games is a favorite over three or more.

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Speaker 1: And uh yeah, I think this is just too many

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Speaker 1: points for a divisional game this late in the season,

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Speaker 1: for a desperate Dender team that I think that's the

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Speaker 1: personal defense. It is playing well enough on offense. Can

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Speaker 1: I tell you about my friends at FanDuel Right now,

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Speaker 1: all customers get twenty dollar parlay bet bonus. You know

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Speaker 1: who I like this weekend. I like the Chargers. Everyone's

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Speaker 1: gonna take the Bengals. I like the forty Niners, and

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Speaker 1: I like I kind of like the Steelers. Little parlay

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Speaker 1: right there a lot of playoff action going. Just place

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Speaker 1: little bonus action here. I mean the game of the

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Speaker 1: week by far. I mean it's got potential on paper

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Speaker 1: to be one of the games of the year. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Patriots Bills at Buffalo. It just doesn't get much bigger.

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Speaker 1: You know, this has got to be one of the

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Speaker 1: bigger games. I mean, non playoff game might be the

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Speaker 1: biggest game Sean mcdermot's ever had as a head coach.

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Speaker 1: He's obviously has a you know, shorter tenure than some,

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Speaker 1: but this thing is huge. I honestly, I don't have

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Speaker 1: much of a feel for this thing at all. What

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Speaker 1: angle you going with and who do you like? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think, I mean I had to take the Bills.

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Speaker 1: It got down to two and a half, it got

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Speaker 1: down under a field goal, and I had to take that.

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Speaker 1: Look the loss of I still have the Bills rated

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Speaker 1: a couple of points higher than the Steelers throwing home

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Speaker 1: field during the fact that they had, you know, a

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Speaker 1: couple of extra days of preparation there for a really

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Speaker 1: good coaching staff. Remember they played on Thanksgiving. They did

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Speaker 1: lose Trey White, which is really gonna hurt of a

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Speaker 1: long term when they play say a you know Titans

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Speaker 1: with healthy receiving corps or Chiefs, you know, some of

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Speaker 1: these more elite passing offenses downfield in the playoffs. Because

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Speaker 1: try White took away an elite receiver one side of

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Speaker 1: the field, you could, you know, disguise your coverages more.

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Speaker 1: You can roll your safety to the other side. I

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Speaker 1: don't think his loss is gonna be as big this

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Speaker 1: game one. It's not like the Patriots are throwing. Matto

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Speaker 1: is playing really well, but they're not chucking the ball

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Speaker 1: down the field. Also, there's gonna be wins. So you know,

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Speaker 1: there's the weather is going to really prevent Matt Jones,

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Speaker 1: who doesn't really throw a sharp ball, like he's not

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Speaker 1: he's not winning. It's got a little little float to its.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if he's gonna be as effective this

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Speaker 1: week in his first game. I think maybe ever we've

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Speaker 1: seen him and win, so we'll see how that works out.

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Speaker 1: He's but he's playing really well. I do think that

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Speaker 1: the Patriots defense is a bit overrated in the market

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Speaker 1: right now. Look. Look, they played the Titans last week

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Speaker 1: with no Henry and zero receivers zero. I mean, all

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Speaker 1: their entire offenses out. The week before they play a

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Speaker 1: dreadful Falcons team Calvin it Lea's out. Yeah, but they

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Speaker 1: played the Browns with a hurt Baker Mayfield. That Brown's

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Speaker 1: offense also a lot of injuries at the time. Week

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Speaker 1: before that they play the Panthers and sorry Sam Darnald.

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Speaker 1: So I mean this defense, which is looked awesome all year,

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Speaker 1: has really benefited from, you know, a lot of injuries

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Speaker 1: against opponents over the past month or so. And then

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Speaker 1: if you go before then, their windsor came over the

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Speaker 1: Jets twice the Texans, like so I think that they're

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Speaker 1: a bit overvalued in the market. The Bills, I still think,

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Speaker 1: are a better team right now. And you know they're

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Speaker 1: gonna get their tackleback, Spencer Brown. They're gonna get Star

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Speaker 1: back in the middle of the defensive line. That's huge

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Speaker 1: on both ends. I think the Bills under three has

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Speaker 1: value should be an outstanding game though, and I wouldn't.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't if you wanted to tease the Patriots up.

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Speaker 1: I also think that they're good to easer options and

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Speaker 1: teasing through seven totals crashing down because of the weather

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Speaker 1: down to like I think forty three now. But I

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Speaker 1: think the Bills find a way to get it done

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Speaker 1: and then we'll see this matchup again and Fox Star,

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Speaker 1: which could decide a division in a few weeks. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I was gonna let you get out of here, but

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Speaker 1: I see we're in the Alabama shirt and we usually

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Speaker 1: put this out Saturday morning, so you've got some hours

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Speaker 1: if you're listening to this to bet, I mean it

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Speaker 1: does listen obviously. I mean it's hard to disagree Georgia

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Speaker 1: being a big favorite, But do you like Nick Saban

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Speaker 1: getting a touchdown? Almost? I mean that's that. You could

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Speaker 1: argue that's pretty good value. How often has Nick Saban

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Speaker 1: got a plus six something next to his name? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I just grabbed the shirt. By the way, I have

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Speaker 1: thousands of college shirts and thousands but a lot so

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Speaker 1: I'm not an Alabama fan, full disclosure, but yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean Saban catching points. They've been favored in sixty four

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Speaker 1: straight games and the suit ninety four straight games. I

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Speaker 1: think they've been favored in a hundred and sixty four

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Speaker 1: the last hundred and sixty five. He's only been caught five.

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Speaker 1: He's only been under five times. It's two thousand, eighties

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Speaker 1: one four of the five out right. How many games

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Speaker 1: do you say straight? He's been favored in a hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty something, the ninety four straight. Yeah, so I'll

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Speaker 1: have a This will be the first time they're under

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Speaker 1: dogg in ninety three games. They've been favored in a

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty four of their past a hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty five games. Here's that has only been an underdog

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Speaker 1: five previous times. Since two thousand and eight, when Sabing arrived,

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Speaker 1: they've won four the previous five two thousand fifteen. Their

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half against Georgia they won thirty

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Speaker 1: eight to ten two thousand nine. Their plus four and

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Speaker 1: a half against Florida they won thirty two to thirteen

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Speaker 1: team when they kicked his ass two thousand eight Obama

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Speaker 1: plus ten. This is the two thousand eighteen there Whoember

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Speaker 1: two seven they lost at home to I think like

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Speaker 1: the two eight. They've lost to Florida by eleven. They

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Speaker 1: were ten point dogs. Two thousand eight, they were plus

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Speaker 1: six and a half to Georgia, they won by eleven

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Speaker 1: two eight. There plus four against Clemson they won by

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Speaker 1: twenty four. So I mean, you're talking once since two

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Speaker 1: thousand ten as an underdog against Georgia and they want

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Speaker 1: It's just shocking. So yeah, I mean, if you look

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Speaker 1: at a lot of the numbers, it says that Georgia

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Speaker 1: should be If you throw up priors like it, Georgia

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Speaker 1: should be like an eight nine. Maybe that's how dominant

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Speaker 1: they've been, but they haven't. Really This is a babbotine

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Speaker 1: that can match them talent wise. Coaching is the great equalizer.

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Speaker 1: These two coaches are obviously really familiar with each other,

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Speaker 1: know how to attack each other. Look if you get seven,

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Speaker 1: I think that's this line has been like hanging out

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Speaker 1: a six and a half. It's gonna be hard to

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Speaker 1: pass up taking Saban in the spot. Uh, and all

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Speaker 1: the talent that Alabama has, even though they've underperformed and

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Speaker 1: Georgia has been extremely dominant and Alabama has to throw

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Speaker 1: everything at them this week. Maybe Georgia, you know, it's like,

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Speaker 1: all right, we don't we don't win by much. Maybe

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Speaker 1: we hold a couple of things back. We're going to

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Speaker 1: the College Fool Playoff eventually, I mean, no matter what.

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Speaker 1: So you know, Alabama has to win this game to

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Speaker 1: get in. So maybe there's an edge there. I do

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Speaker 1: you think George's like, Georgie is not gonna care, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: seven points with Saban it's hard to pass up. Well,

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Speaker 1: appreciate you, stucky, have a good weekend betting. Just make

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Speaker 1: some money, baby, Absolutely, good luck bro. The volume