WEBVTT - Worker Relocation and eSports in the Olympics 0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:05.119 You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast count us Saturdays 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:08.280 at one and seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:11.479 the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:13.760 on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:19.320 Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. This week we 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:22.840 look at the bond between parent and child and how 0:00:22.840 --> 0:00:27.160 it can sometimes be a little too much. Bloomberg's Alison 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:30.320 Schrager tells us how the kids of so called helicopter 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:34.559 parents are less likely to take risks. We'll also look 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:37.519 at those trendy new weight loss drugs and find out 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:41.479 what doctors are asking. Bloomberg's Lisa Jarvis tells us just 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:43.879 how long do you have to be on them? And 0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:47.159 will your weight come back if you stop? Plus the 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:50.120 latest push for a new sport in the Olympics, e 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:54.320 Sports Adam Mentor writes about a strong argument for why 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:58.160 the Olympic Committee might want to consider gaming as a 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:02.200 new Olympic sport. At first, we begin with the return 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:05.200 to the office or lack of it, and the housing 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:08.920 market Now. Earlier this month, Bloomberg's Wall Street week Daily 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:13.080 spoke with Joshua Pristall, head of real estate at Predium. 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:16.920 What we're seeing is that supply is being destroyed faster 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:19.440 than demand as a result of rising rates, and that's 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:21.400 really a function of what we call the mortgage lock 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:25.000 in effect. So the averaging place mortgage is about three 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:27.959 point six percent interest rate. People can't afford to move 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:30.440 to a smaller house let alone, or larger if their 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:32.360 thirty year mortgage is going to more than double. But 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:36.800 the real solution resides with building more supply. We continue 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:40.360 to see the best value long term in the states 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.000 that are in the smile of the country southeast southwest. 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:45.560 Now that doesn't mean that there aren't great opportunities in 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:48.640 other places, but where people are moving and where the 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:50.600 job growth is is generally where there's. 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:51.080 Not enough housing. 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:54.560 And that was Joshua Pristall, head of real estate at Predium, 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:58.880 speaking with Bloomberg's Wall Street week Daily earlier this month. Now, 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:02.720 the big migration story of the pandemic was the emptying 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:06.600 out of major US cities. As more employees begin to 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:10.360 return partly or even fully to their offices, people have 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:15.360 started talking about a possible rejuvenation, but not everyone believes 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.560 that's going to happen, at least not quite yet. Let's 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:23.480 bring in Bloomberg opinion columnist Connorson, founder of Peachtree Creek Investments, 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.799 and Connor, you talk about in your column how major 0:02:26.919 --> 0:02:30.200 US cities emptied out during the pandemic, But aren't people 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:33.440 coming back now? Don't you see a rejuvenation coming? 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:35.959 We certainly have seen a big back to the office movement, 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:37.880 and at least in my circles, it seems like four 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:40.320 days a week with Friday being flex Day, is sort 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:42.600 of the new normal for corporate America. So I think 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:44.520 that for the most part, return of the office has 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:47.240 now played out. And the reason I wanted to write 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:49.360 my column is that we get new Census data in 0:02:49.360 --> 0:02:52.679 December for what migration trends look like in twenty twenty three, 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:54.920 and that's going to capture the period between mid twenty 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.919 twenty two and mid twenty twenty three when existing home 0:02:57.960 --> 0:03:01.040 sales really fell off as mortgage rates rows. And so 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:04.240 my belief, and based on postal service data, is that 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:07.880 it will show that migration really tailed off. So there's 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:10.480 a very little movement away from New York and Chicago 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:12.720 and the West Coast, all the places that lost a 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:15.919 lot of population during COVID, and it's not necessarily due 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:18.440 to back to the office, but just because high mortgage 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:21.880 rates and low home sales mean nobody's moving right now, I. 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:23.720 Want to get into that. But you said something about 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:26.760 the postal service, and I think it's fascinating how they 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:30.480 were able to track these pandemic migration trends. What was 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:31.560 the system that they used. 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.120 So what they do is, if you ever move, you 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:36.960 can do a change of address request and you don't 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:38.600 have to, but a lot of people do. So it's 0:03:38.600 --> 0:03:41.040 sort of a consistent data set over time, and they 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.800 look at buy zip code, the number of requests from 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:46.120 a certain zip code and to a certain zip code. 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:48.680 So if you're moving from New York to Miami, maybe 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:51.200 you'll send a request from New York or to Miami, 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.040 and so that data is tracked and you can aggregate 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:56.160 that to see sort of a pretty good way of 0:03:56.160 --> 0:03:59.160 looking at where people are leaving and moving to over time. 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:01.880 So they keep track of this using those change of 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:04.200 address forms exactly. 0:04:04.240 --> 0:04:05.920 And so we saw there was a pretty big drop 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.520 off from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty two as 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.480 the pandemic started to reced people went back to the office, 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:13.080 and then we saw that in the sense of data 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:15.640 a year ago, and then looking at the post service 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.159 data we have so far this year, we've seen another 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:20.919 big drop off as the lack of home sales and 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:23.360 people sort of unable to move due to high mortgage 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:25.599 rates has led to another tail off in migration. 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:29.200 Let's talk about that. The migration slowed as the housing 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:32.120 market sputtered. But the conventional wisdom is that the housing 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:35.160 market will be coming back as people return. You say, 0:04:35.680 --> 0:04:38.080 don't hold your breath, Well, I think that. 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:40.680 I do think housing transactions are going to pick up 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:43.279 because life happens, and most people can't put off a 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:46.160 move for years and years and years. And if it 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:48.800 means eight percent mortgage rates, prices will go down, if 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:51.320 that's what they have to do. And so you know, 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:53.159 it might not be three months and might not be 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:55.360 six months, but over the next two, three five years, 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:57.960 home sales are likely to pick up. And that means 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:00.599 the migration patterns we saw during COVID, maybe not to 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:03.040 the case and destinations, but from the northeast and west 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:06.080 coast to the mountain west and south we'll pick up again. 0:05:06.520 --> 0:05:10.080 So interstate migration and the level of existing home sales 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:10.520 are linked. 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:14.479 They're connected exactly because for the most part, two thirds 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:17.560 of households or homeowners, if you want to move, you're 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:19.560 selling a house to buy another house. If you're moving 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:21.839 from New York to Florida, you're probably selling a New 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:23.680 York house to buy a Florida house. So if you're 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:26.120 not seeing many home sales, you're not seeing much migration. 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:30.080 And we're talking with Bloomberg opinion columnist Connorson who tells 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.839 us that the exodus from big cities isn't over yet, 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:37.360 but it does Connor, seem like it's on pause. How 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:39.360 long is this pause going to last? 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:41.920 And that's really where the housing market plays in. So 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:44.359 I think this is important if you're in a Miami 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:46.080 or a place like that, or you're in New York 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:48.840 and you're saying, well, is this the new normal? Did 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:51.120 we have a one off boom in migration during COVID, 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:53.240 Now we got back to the office, Now this is 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:55.120 the new normal? And I don't think it is. I 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:57.960 think that people this was all always set to be 0:05:58.000 --> 0:06:00.960 a decade with a lot more migration as millennials agent 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:04.000 their family forming years and wanted more space as baby 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:06.039 boomers were tired and maybe didn't need to live in 0:06:06.040 --> 0:06:09.200 the Midwestern Northeast anymore. And then also the ability to 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:11.200 sort of work at least hybrid or remote some of 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.760 the time makes it easier to not be in a 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:15.719 big city, at least somewhat easier than it was before. 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:18.360 So I do think we're due for a big migration boom, 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:20.560 but the housing market and mortgage rates right now are 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:21.599 keeping that from happening. 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:24.520 Let's build on something you just said. Had it not 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:28.599 been for the pandemic, that migration for lack of a 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:30.640 better word, or the exodus from those cities may have 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:34.160 been happening anyway because of the baby boomers, the millennials 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:36.360 in their career Pathsah. 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.000 Yeah, we saw that migration in the late twenty tens 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:40.760 was higher than it was in the early twenty tens, 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:42.680 and part of it was the economy was better as well. 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:44.919 So in the early twenty tens we were still in 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:47.280 the aftermath of the foreclosure crisis. The labor market was 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:50.000 pretty tough and that was holding back migration as well. 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:52.320 So there was sort of some pent up migration from 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:54.600 sort of lack of movement in the early twenty tens, 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.000 so it was already starting to pick up. The pandemic 0:06:57.040 --> 0:06:58.760 was kind of a one off frenzy, and I think 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:01.200 some of that was maybe likely to be repeated. Like 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:03.559 I don't think that Lake Tahoe will see a boom 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:05.680 of migration going forward. That might have been a remote 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:10.080 work thing, but certainly there's places with cheaper housing and 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.760 now more jobs as companies are trying to spread out 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:15.240 where their jobs are nationally, that kind of migration is 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:15.840 going to come back. 0:07:16.280 --> 0:07:18.680 But what about rising interest rates? Would that be enough 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:19.520 to slow them? 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:22.080 It certainly is for now, and the question is how 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:24.480 long is that going to persist. Most people think that 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:26.840 existing home sales are going to be very low next year. 0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:28.920 I think they're going to pick up. We're seeing that 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:31.760 housing inventory is sort of starting to rise at an 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:34.240 unseasonable time of the year, and I think part of 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:36.160 that is just because people decided not to sell their 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:39.080 homes eighteen months ago and sort of the life changed. 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:43.400 Reasons for movement your deaths, divorces, babies, all that, those 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:46.120 are still happening, and maybe you put off the move 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:48.520 for a year eighteen months, but you probably can't do 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:51.520 it for three or five years, and so I do 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:53.320 think we're going to see more inventory like next year, 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:55.560 and more inventory is going to lead to more transactions 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.720 as the housing market isn't quite so inventory constrained. 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:03.880 Because remember last how people were selling their homes at 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:06.680 more than the asking price, and homes would be going 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:08.760 as soon as they're listed, or maybe they wouldn't even 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:10.360 make it to the list at all. They would be 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:14.920 sold just side unseen. I can give you anecdotal, an 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.840 anecdote about my aunt retiring, selling her house to her 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:21.480 neighbor who said, I've always wanted your house, I want 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:23.720 it now, and just there it was. It was just 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:27.880 a quick sale. That's not happening as much now. But 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:30.200 do you see that happening again, I mean, was last 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:31.080 summer or one off? 0:08:32.200 --> 0:08:35.000 Well, the wild thing is that obviously affordability is the 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:37.400 worst it's been in forty years right now, and yet 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:39.400 if you still talk to real estate agents, they say 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:41.800 that there are more buyers and sellers because there's so 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:44.880 little inventory out there. So homes that are put on 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:47.880 the market and priced well are still moving quickly, and 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:50.280 if they had more inventory, they would have more sales. 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:52.480 And it doesn't mean prices would go up. I think 0:08:52.480 --> 0:08:54.439 when we think about what does the housing market need 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:58.199 right now, it's not higher prices. It's more inventory, more transactions, 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:00.960 more liquidity, And the fact that we're seeing inventory rise 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:03.400 right now suggests that we will see those sort of 0:09:03.400 --> 0:09:06.240 beneficial dynamics next year, even if it doesn't mean. I 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:08.200 don't think we're going to see much price growth next year, 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:10.319 but I do think we'll see more transactions. 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.200 It seems like that would be counterintuitive to an exodus. 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.679 Then if the home sales are then rising, then wouldn't 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:19.320 you want to go back into the city and go 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:22.839 back toward where your offices are Or has that dynamic 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:26.120 been completely changed in our own minds by what we 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:27.280 went through with the pandemic. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:30.040 Well, I think the reason why people move to New 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:32.320 York tends to be young people moving for jobs and 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:34.920 immigrants moving to the US, and the people leaving New 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:37.360 York tends to be retirees and people moving out for 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.160 more space. So it gets to why people move to 0:09:40.280 --> 0:09:43.720 certain places, and so sort of, if the housing market 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:46.040 is more liquid, it lets people sell their homes and 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.840 move out of the places where people tend to move 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:52.400 away from. When the sort of that kind of pattern 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:52.880 of migration. 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:55.720 So what are you looking for in the next few months? 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:56.840 Then what should we watch for? 0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:01.439 So I am focused most primarily on inventory because I 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:04.000 think inventory will lead to sales and if we see 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:06.560 that sort of flywheel kick in. And part of it too, 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:08.360 is that if you want to move, sometimes you can't 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:09.839 move if there isn't a home for you to buy. 0:10:10.240 --> 0:10:12.560 So if there's more inventory, not only can you find 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:14.720 something to buy, but that late makes you able to 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.320 sell as well. And if we get that flywheel dynamic 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:20.920 of more inventory, more transactions, that I will sort of 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.160 project that migration is going to pick up again. And 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:26.080 seeing which places are the new hotspots for migration in 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:27.560 this sort of post COVID new normal. 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:29.840 Got any idea what those hot spots might be. 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:34.200 Too? So I think it's toughest because yeah, it's the 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:36.760 price of movements have been so extreme, like you sell 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:39.679 the booms busts and Boise and Austin and Miami, and 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:41.400 so I think we need to see things settle out 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:43.200 a little bit more until we know for sure. 0:10:43.600 --> 0:10:44.800 Okay, thank you Connor. 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:46.080 Thanks. 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:49.720 Amy Connorson is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and founder of 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:53.000 Peachtree Creek Investments. Now coming up, we'll look at the 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:56.840 bond between child and parent and how sometimes it might 0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:59.559 be a good eye to loosen those apron strings a bit. 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:01.480 You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:15.599 You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast cotch us Saturdays 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:17.679 at one and seven pm Eastern. 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:20.800 On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:24.280 Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:11:26.200 --> 0:11:29.080 You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. You know 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:31.800 parents are spending more time than ever with their kids. 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:35.680 In nearly every wealthy country, the parent child together time 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:39.800 has steadily increased, and this hyper attention might actually be 0:11:40.040 --> 0:11:44.560 harmful to children. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Alison Sriger covers economics 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:47.760 and joins us with some insight. Now, Allison, we've heard 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.280 all the stories about how gen X is the last 0:11:50.320 --> 0:11:52.800 of the free range kids. You stay outside, you play 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:55.360 all day, you go home before the street lights come on, 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:57.719 you drink from the hose. I know you've heard all 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:00.640 the stories. There is something to be said, though, for 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:02.800 parents who do spend more time with their kids than 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:05.400 maybe we got when we were kids. How can that 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:05.920 be bad? 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:08.400 Well, in some ways, there are a lot of benefits. 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:11.120 I mean, the evidence is somewhat mixed, but I mean 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:13.360 there's no doubt that kids are safer, They're less likely 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.200 to die in accidents and things like that. And you know, 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:19.000 I think, you know, there is evidence that parents who 0:12:19.640 --> 0:12:21.880 can you know, who can spend more time engaging with 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:24.720 their kids do do well for developmental reasons. But I mean, 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.720 they're diminishing returns to the fact it could even be harmful. 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.559 And I think, you know, there was a recent paper 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:33.480 that came out in the journal Pediatrics sort of suggesting 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:35.760 that this might be one of the reasons why kids 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:39.520 are also a lot more emotionally anxious and depressed, because 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.319 you know, spending time on your own as a child 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.840 is really important developmentally. It's how you develop like a 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:48.280 sense of control over your environment. It's how you develop 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:51.719 independence and ability to resolve conflicts. All these things are 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:54.839 really important to your development. And you know this this 0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:58.920 article came out and just for another my book project, 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:00.520 I happen to be speaking to a lot of people 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:04.079 about this already, and I was speaking to a professor 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:07.760 at Georgetown a psychology professor, and her work says there's 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.840 something called the age of release, which sounds really like 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:12.640 you're get In fact, when I was googling it to 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.880 try to find her work, I kept finding things about prison. 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:19.199 But this is actually a psychological term for children for 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.040 when you're allowed to sort of roam free, or at 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.560 least go places by your own or unsupervised. And she 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.599 finds that your age of release actually is very indicative 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:31.320 of your ability to take risks when you're older, your 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.200 ability to handle setbacks. And as I said it, like 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:36.320 the age of release, she says, is ticked up over 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.760 the years, six or seven years to the point where 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:40.959 the age of release, you know, I don't know. I 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.120 kind of had a loose parents, so I had a 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:45.000 very early age of release, even compared to other people, 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.120 even for people of my generation. Sure, but so I 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.760 was like six or seven, but like now it's like fourteen. 0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:56.000 Wow. And let's just clarify because I picked up on 0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:58.240 that in your column, the age of release, And that's 0:13:58.240 --> 0:13:59.959 sort of like when you're first allowed to go to 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:03.240 a sleepover or maybe walk to school by yourself, or 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:06.040 do those things that are unsupervised. That seem like a 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:08.600 rite of passage. When you are as young as six. 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:12.480 I think I was maybe seven or eight perhaps when 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:14.640 that time came along, was just pretty normal. But you're 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.440 saying now, it doesn't happen until they're in their teen years. 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:20.520 Yeah, And she was telling me how she asked her 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.120 class recently, how old were you when you were allowed 0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:25.360 to play unsupervised? And they're just like, we were too 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:27.800 old to play by the time we were unsupervised. It's 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:29.000 just sad. 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.800 Wow, that's rough. And so the point of all of this, 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:36.120 and the point of that article you were referencing, is 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:40.360 that if you're not allowed to play unsupervised by a 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:45.600 certain time, then you're missing out on that developmental gift 0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:48.600 that gives you to be able, to what reason, be 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.000 comfortable in your own skin, be comfortable on your own 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:51.880 What is it you're missing? 0:14:52.280 --> 0:14:54.120 Well, kin, this is it. I mean at the Journal 0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:56.600 Pediatrics article talked a lot about how it might be 0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:01.680 contributing to depression and anxiety. Talking to the press or Georgetown, 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:04.440 we are talking more about your comfort with risk taking. 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:07.880 And her research is finding you know, she's comparing across 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:11.200 different countries and found that like kids with later ages 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.560 of release were just like more fearful and less comfortable 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:16.880 with risk taking. She found like over the years her 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:21.720 Georgetown students, you know, found like she'd be like, explain 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:23.840 the last time you were scared or you're an intense situation, 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.360 and they'd describe things that used to not even register 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:29.880 and they're more like some of them won't even leave campus, 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:33.720 they won't take public transportation. So it ends up really 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:36.360 having this impact on your comfort with the world and 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:38.560 comfort with risk, you know, for the rest of your life. 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:42.320 Now, when these kids grow up, how will this childhood 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:45.840 and how they spent it manifest itself in the workplace. 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.080 Well, I mean I personally, I mean it's hard to 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.760 prove empirically, but I suspect it might be. Were been 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:57.280 seeing an overall decline in risk taking for young adults, certainly, 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:01.000 like despite all the hype and we hear about less 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:05.240 job changing, less moving, less, lower rates of entrepreneurship, you know, 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:08.600 on you know, all sort of things that require you 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.760 to be have some comfort with ambiguity and uncertainty. And 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.080 I suspect those things might be related, like being raised 0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:17.480 with less comfort with risk and then taking less economic 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:21.040 risk and perhaps even emotional risk. When I was doing 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:24.480 I said the book research, you know, even like, you know, 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.080 there's all these reports that young people are less likely 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:31.160 to form relationships or even date anyway. You know, it's 0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:33.000 so much easier to meet people with apps and whatnot. 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:35.520 And you know a lot of surveys people said, what 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:38.000 is your fear about dating? And they're like, it feels risky. 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:41.320 And when I was talking to some professors about this too, 0:16:41.400 --> 0:16:43.800 they're just like they're talking about like I assume they 0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:45.840 meant risk, like emotional risk. You might get hurt, you 0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:48.480 might get rejected, and that's scary. And she was like, no, 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:50.280 They're like, well, I could end up talking to someone 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:52.640 and it could feel awkward. They're like, or like this 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.560 conversation stalling, or like all these very human things. 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:59.760 Wow, And we are talking the Bloomberg opinion columnist Allison Schreker, 0:16:59.760 --> 0:17:01.960 who who has a column on the Bloomberg Terminal about 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:06.520 how perhaps American parents should teach their kids more about 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:10.160 taking risks. And Alison, how is it parents are able 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:13.360 to spend more time with their kids now compared to say, 0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:16.639 in the nineteen sixties, when not everybody was working. 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:19.040 It's fascinating to me, we're spending so much time with 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:22.320 kids because they compared to the sixties. Because women were 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:26.600 like housewives in the sixties and now most we're in 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.520 the labor force. Where's this time coming from? And I mean, 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:31.560 I suspect it's also like in the sixties they also 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.199 to spend a lot more time doing housework because they 0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:36.639 didn't have the same technology. It's a big cultural shift 0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:40.879 that we're seeing. And also it could be that, you know, 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:43.480 people are having fewer children, they also have more money, 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:46.560 so they just you know, I've read studies that's found 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:48.920 like a lot of people when they're trying to delve 0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:50.600 into why people spend more time with their kids, and 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:52.320 one of the big things that kept coming up is 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:55.640 people just enjoy their kids. You know, maybe in the sixties, 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:57.639 when you had like a million chores to do to 0:17:57.680 --> 0:17:59.320 also take care of your kids, felt like not that 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:01.600 people didn't love the kids, but it felt like this 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:04.240 extra burden. And now that I guess we're richer and 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:06.560 live more comfortable lives, people are just relishing time with 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:08.879 their kids more, which is nice in a lot of ways. 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:12.480 And you are noticing, like you observe, people complain about 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:14.399 this a lot and developmenttally, I don't know how healthy 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:16.560 it is that people seem to be friends with their 0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:18.879 kids all through high school and college. It's not like 0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:21.240 when we were young, where we would just like go 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.080 to college not speak to our parents for three weeks 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:25.200 and it's nice. I guess in some ways they're like 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:27.600 friends with their parents and don't have this period of 0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:30.639 individuation where they barely speak to them, even though developmentally 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:32.000 that might have some value. 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:34.240 The flip side of this coin, though, is that parents 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:36.199 got to be facing a lot of pressure when it 0:18:36.240 --> 0:18:39.160 comes to being involved in their kids' lives. The pressure 0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:41.679 that the kids are feeling to be able to excel 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:44.800 and achieve and to win and to push themselves. The 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:47.840 parents are feeling similar pressure as well when it comes 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:51.040