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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm Jolle Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

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Speaker 2: Tracy, you know, we've been talking a lot about the

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Speaker 2: US energy system for obvious reasons, at least when it

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Speaker 2: comes to electricity. I don't know about you. I kind

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Speaker 2: of feel like the more we talk about it, the

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Speaker 2: less I understand it.

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Speaker 3: Yes, yes, absolutely, I think there are a couple problems here. So, like,

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Speaker 3: even beyond the actual different technologies for generating power, there's

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Speaker 3: the patchwork of like how different grids work in different states.

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Speaker 3: There's the different regulations, the different like interoperability and all

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Speaker 3: of that. And then even if we look like beyond

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Speaker 3: the US, it gets I guess even more different.

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Speaker 2: Yes, well, I sort of wonder maybe we can learn

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Speaker 2: something about the US by a little compared and contrast. Right,

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Speaker 2: So if we look at the US and we still

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Speaker 2: don't totally get how it works, maybe, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: just to thought, maybe we'll learn something about the US

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Speaker 2: by looking at some different system and then we have

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Speaker 2: something to compare it to. It might be a weigh

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Speaker 2: in by looking at the outside world.

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Speaker 3: I'm a big fan of doing this, by the way,

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Speaker 3: just to identify like different choke points in a particular

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Speaker 3: domestic process. If you think that the US can't do

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Speaker 3: something for whatever unidentifiable reason or I don't know, cultural

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Speaker 3: like hold back, but if you look at a different

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Speaker 3: country and they're doing it at scale, very very quickly,

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Speaker 3: then I think you can learn a lot about yourself.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's exactly right. And so one of the things

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Speaker 2: again that comes up from time to time here in

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Speaker 2: our conversations is nuclear and this is just one example

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Speaker 2: of a source of power that may or may not

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Speaker 2: be important in our future. But according to and I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at a story from the Economist, over the past decade,

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Speaker 2: China has added thirty seven nuclear reactors according to the

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Speaker 2: International Atomic Energy Agency. I don't know, maybe we've added

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Speaker 2: like two. I forget how many there are at that

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Speaker 2: Georgia plant. A couple more maybe restarted. But you know,

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Speaker 2: we talk all the time about nuclear and how hard

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Speaker 2: it is and how hard the financing is and the

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Speaker 2: labor force and the learning laws, and we forgot to

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Speaker 2: you know, we forgot how to build them for various reasons.

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Speaker 2: But that's not and it's so expensive. There's all these

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Speaker 2: cost overruns every time. But apparently that is not the

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Speaker 2: case everywhere, and that there are other parts of the world,

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Speaker 2: particularly China, where they just keep building its scale, and

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Speaker 2: maybe we could learn a little bit of how they

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Speaker 2: do that, and how they finance it, and how they

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Speaker 2: avoid forgetting how to build them.

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Speaker 3: I think this is so interesting, this particular approach that

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Speaker 3: compare and contrast, and it is absolutely true. I think

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Speaker 3: the US has the most nuclear reactors out there, like

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Speaker 3: almost one hundred or something like that, but it took

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Speaker 3: us decades and now to build them, and as you

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Speaker 3: rightly point out, we haven't built many new ones that recently. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 3: China is adding more and more, and they make it

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Speaker 3: look easy. I mean, I guess they are just like

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Speaker 3: giant things to boil water. But you know, China really

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Speaker 3: makes it look easy. So what can we learn from China?

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Speaker 2: We really do have the perfect guests. By the way,

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Speaker 2: we've had this guest on in the past. We talked

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Speaker 2: to him about something completely different.

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Speaker 3: Yes, this was during the depths of the COVID crisis, Yes,

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Speaker 3: and we were talking to this person. He was based

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Speaker 3: out in Shanghai, and we were talking basically about how

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Speaker 3: they were getting food into apartment buildings and staying alive

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Speaker 3: during that time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so that was an interesting sort of logistical story

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Speaker 2: and its own right. If you're under complete lockdown in

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Speaker 2: a Shanghai apartment building, how do you actually get food?

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Speaker 2: And anyway, I'm thrilled because now we're recording this December seventeenth,

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, we are talking to him in completely

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Speaker 2: different times.

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Speaker 3: He's been freed from lockdown.

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Speaker 2: He is now here in studio with us, So we

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Speaker 2: are going to be speaking with David Fishman, senior manager

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Speaker 2: at the Lantau Group. He's based in China typically where

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Speaker 2: he mostly focuses on the Chinese energy system. So literally

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Speaker 2: the perfect guest and a repeat guest. So, David, thank

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Speaker 2: you for coming on. Odd lads, welcome to New York City,

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Speaker 2: welcome back.

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Speaker 4: Thank you for having me.

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Speaker 2: What do you do the only other time we talked

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Speaker 2: to you, The only thing we knew about you is

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Speaker 2: that you were figuring out how to get food into

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Speaker 2: your apartment. What do you do now when that's no

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Speaker 2: longer the pressing issue?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? Sure, So I work at a company called the

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Speaker 4: Landau Group. We are an economic consultancy. We're doing power

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Speaker 4: and gas consulting across APAC and so I'm focused on China.

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Speaker 4: I'm in the China office. We're doing the business of electricity.

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Speaker 4: So for me, that means either somebody who wants to

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Speaker 4: build an electricity generation asset, wants to sell one, wants

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Speaker 4: to sell a portfolio of assets, wants to invest in one,

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Speaker 4: maybe through a fund or as some other type of

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Speaker 4: investment product. And then on the what we'd call our downstream,

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Speaker 4: who uses the electric city, right, your major multinationals, your factories,

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Speaker 4: anybody who uses electricity as an input to produce things.

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Speaker 4: So we're working in the business of electricity, trying to

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Speaker 4: make buying and selling electricity more economic for everybody involved.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm just going to dive into the nuclear aspect

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Speaker 3: of this.

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Speaker 4: Then.

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Speaker 3: You know, Joe gave us some contours around how much

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Speaker 3: China is currently building. When did China decide that it

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Speaker 3: was interested in nuclear and what was the sort of

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Speaker 3: like thought process the strategy about how nuclear would fit

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Speaker 3: into everything else, including the coal power that China is

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Speaker 3: famous for using.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the history of the Chinese civil nuclear

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Speaker 4: power industry goes back to stems back to the eighties.

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Speaker 4: So looking at you know, the mid to late eighties

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Speaker 4: is when China was signing agreements to bring in its

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Speaker 4: first nuclear reactor technology. At the time, it was there

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Speaker 4: are two different paths that were pursuing. They signed an

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Speaker 4: agreement with Framatome, a French company, to bring over one reactor,

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Speaker 4: and they developed domestic reactor with at the time the

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Speaker 4: Soviet Union to have a domestic technology tree as well.

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Speaker 4: So in the eighties, China was actually experiencing some pretty

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Speaker 4: rapid economic growth, especially in the late eighties, and looking

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Speaker 4: to expand its power supply rapidly, and at the time

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Speaker 4: it was quite tight, and so nuclear was seen as

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Speaker 4: a potential way to expand the power supply and get

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Speaker 4: into a power generation for what was at the time

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Speaker 4: something very new for China. What did you so?

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Speaker 2: I mentioned, literally from just reading the first paragraph of

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Speaker 2: a paywalled economist story that number of about thirty seven

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Speaker 2: new nuclears saw one just like I just google how

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Speaker 2: many new clear reactors are big built in China? Scrolled

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Speaker 2: down until I find something in the Google search. This

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Speaker 2: is how the research is done, folks. Well, why don't you,

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Speaker 2: in your words give us a sense of the size

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Speaker 2: and scale of Chinese civil nuclear generation and where it's going,

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Speaker 2: and then sort of like the role it generally plays

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Speaker 2: in the overall portfolio there, sure describe.

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Speaker 4: It, Yeah, sure so. So nuclear in China has the

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Speaker 4: interesting status of being both relatively large and still somehow small.

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Speaker 4: Large in the sense that it's one of the largest

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Speaker 4: operating fleets in the world. Right, You've got you know,

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Speaker 4: fifty almost sixty reactors operating. We're talking about nearly sixty

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Speaker 4: gigawatts of generation capacity. But then in the context of

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Speaker 4: China's entire generation fleet, right, they've got well over one

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Speaker 4: thousand gigawatts of coal and then many more thousands of

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Speaker 4: gigawatts of wind and solar. So it's both large in

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Speaker 4: the context of the world, but also small. And that's

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Speaker 4: the case for a lot of things in China. The

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Speaker 4: thing that can be large in China can also And what's.

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Speaker 2: The ambition for you know, looking out, you know, in

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Speaker 2: a five year plant, I don't know how whether they

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Speaker 2: do that for energy? Two, where is nuclear potentially? How

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Speaker 2: much could nuclear be a thing? What's the size and scale.

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Speaker 4: Of the ambition?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Sure so long term, I mean it depends on how

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Speaker 4: your energy planners and your economic planners and vision the

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Speaker 4: long term makeup of the grid. What type of power

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Speaker 4: are we using in twenty fifty. Is it going to

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Speaker 4: be a little bit or a medium amount or a

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Speaker 4: lot of nuclear? So it's scenarios, right, and China has

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Speaker 4: scenarios too for a high end a low end. So

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Speaker 4: the recent scenarios that I've seen. Originally it was saying

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Speaker 4: no less than three hundred gigawatts two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 4: three hundred gigawats, so two hundred and fifty or three

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Speaker 4: hundred reactors, right, two hundred and fifty units. So the

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Speaker 4: United States has just about one hundred right now. So

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Speaker 4: if they got to that scenario, it would be about

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Speaker 4: two and a half times what the US has right now.

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Speaker 3: So what's the process by which a new nuclear reactor

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Speaker 3: gets built in China? And how much does it differ

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Speaker 3: from what goes on in the US.

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Speaker 4: Sure, well, the steps of the process are actually very similar.

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Speaker 4: This is these are international best practices for how you

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Speaker 4: build these types of infrastructure. So you have to choose

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Speaker 4: a site, You're going through a sighting process, an environmental

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Speaker 4: impact report. Maybe you've got to make sure the local

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Speaker 4: sea life is not going to be affected by warm

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Speaker 4: water being discharged, there's no endangered species nearby. All those

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Speaker 4: different aspects. So you choose your site. That takes a

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Speaker 4: few years. You have consultation period. There's a period for

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Speaker 4: the public to maybe express their dissatisfaction. This happens in

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Speaker 4: China too. And when the site is finally selected, then

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Speaker 4: you start pre construction. You can level the site, you

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Speaker 4: can connect communications utilities, you can do all your pre groundwork,

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Speaker 4: and then we're waiting for a really key milestone called FCD.

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Speaker 4: That's first concrete date, and that's when the first barrel

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Speaker 4: of safety related concrete is poured at the site, and

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Speaker 4: so that would be the beginning of your construction of

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Speaker 4: your containment building. And so from FCD to your full

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Speaker 4: construction period, you do civil construction, you do installation, you

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Speaker 4: have commissioning. Maybe you encounter some issues during commissioning, you

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Speaker 4: do troubleshooting right and eventually you fully connect, you connect it,

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Speaker 4: you load your fuel, you have your first criticality the

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Speaker 4: first time that you know fission starts in the reactor.

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Speaker 4: Then you connect it to the grid and then you

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Speaker 4: get up to one hundred percent power and you got

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Speaker 4: a nuclear power plant. If you do it, we're you

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Speaker 4: looking at ten to twelve years. See, if you do

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Speaker 4: it not so quick, you're looking a lot more than that.

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Speaker 2: So it takes a long time in China too. So

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Speaker 2: you know, we look at you as construction builders like,

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Speaker 2: oh can't we It's a log process anywhere you look.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask about the financing. So if there's

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Speaker 2: a new who's paying for this? And also how are

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Speaker 2: they selling this energy? Because one thing I get the

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Speaker 2: impression of is that setting aside the cost of building

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Speaker 2: a new nuclear reactor, which is an expensive, time consuming process.

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Speaker 2: The electricity market structure also seems to matter a lot,

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Speaker 2: because you need a certain amount of guaranteed off take,

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Speaker 2: you need a certain amount of price stability if the

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Speaker 2: price drops to zero for a long time, because there's

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Speaker 2: it's very sunny and windy in that area and suddenly

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Speaker 2: you're that's screwing with the economics of it. And so

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Speaker 2: market structure and financing are both important. Talk to us

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Speaker 2: about how that works in China versus here.

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Speaker 4: Right? Sure, so the builders, right, the companies that are

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Speaker 4: constructing and eventually owning the assets are all state owned enterprises. Okay,

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Speaker 4: so you've got these great big sos. Their job is

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Speaker 4: to own and operate nuclear power plants, and so when

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Speaker 4: they go out to secure financing, of course they're securing

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Speaker 4: financing from state owned banks as well. They're going to

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Speaker 4: be getting very preferential loan treatment, right, very low percentage

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Speaker 4: rates maybe two percent, one and a half percent, things

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Speaker 4: like that. For a huge infrastructure like that, we're talking

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Speaker 4: billions of rate.

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Speaker 2: Not the spread.

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Speaker 4: Okay, keep going, so very very low rates because again

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Speaker 4: they have a mandate to build. This is state banks,

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Speaker 4: state infrastructure, and state builders. They need to build these things.

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Speaker 4: And then when they're going out to sell power right now,

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Speaker 4: they're given a guaranteed on grid rate. So the grid

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Speaker 4: company and the power regulators say, when you complete your

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Speaker 4: plant and you start selling power, we will make sure

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Speaker 4: you receive this much for every kilo what hour of

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Speaker 4: power that you send into the grid. Long term, they

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Speaker 4: want to marketize it. They want to have that exposed

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Speaker 4: to the vagaries of the markets the same way that

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Speaker 4: you would see maybe in the United States or Western Europe.

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Speaker 4: And that will be an adjustment for China's nuclear industry.

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Speaker 4: Historically they have only operated on this kind of fixed

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Speaker 4: feed and rate.

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Speaker 3: So, I mean, that's a pretty big comparative advantage if

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Speaker 3: you're getting subsidized financing from a state owned enterprise or

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Speaker 3: something like that. Plus at the moment you have that

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Speaker 3: guaranteed off take, even though they might want to move

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Speaker 3: to a market based system before. It also strikes me

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Speaker 3: that there are a few other potential comparative advantages, like

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Speaker 3: lots of ready labor, lots of manufacturing capacity presumably that's

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Speaker 3: able to make the stuff you need for these things.

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Speaker 3: Walk us through, like all the different advantages that China

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Speaker 3: has in this process.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, sure, So if you maybe you've seen before or not,

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Speaker 4: if you look at one of those like stacked bar charts,

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Speaker 4: that it compares all the cost components of you know,

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Speaker 4: building one of these things in China versus Europe versus

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Speaker 4: the United States. It's not like you'd point to any

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Speaker 4: single component of the stacked bar and say, ah, that's it.

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Speaker 4: That's the key. That's why they're so cheap. Every single

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Speaker 4: component is cheaper, right, You've got your cost of capital

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Speaker 4: is lower, You've got your construction timeline is so tightly managed.

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Speaker 3: Right, so you're saving on interest costs exactly.

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Speaker 4: And the sooner you can connect to the grid and

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Speaker 4: start selling power. That's when you start making your money back. Right,

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Speaker 4: So every day that you go over your construction schedule,

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Speaker 4: it's a hunt. We say in the US about a

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Speaker 4: million dollars of missed power sales and then also about

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Speaker 4: a million dollars of interest payments. So here you got

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Speaker 4: this two million dollars spread every day over your construction

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Speaker 4: schedule that was originally planned. Like, that's just mind boggling.

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Speaker 4: Then we look at the production capacity, right, China's incredible

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Speaker 4: industrial production capacity. We're talking about these heavy forged components,

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Speaker 4: and maybe only a couple of companies in the whole

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Speaker 4: world can make things like the reactor pressure vessel, the

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Speaker 4: steam generators, the pressure risers, the primary piping, the reactor

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Speaker 4: cool and pump, all these things. And there's like three

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Speaker 4: companies in the world that can make these and now

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Speaker 4: at this point, several of them are in China. And

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Speaker 4: when they need to prototype, when they need to iterate,

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Speaker 4: when they need to troubleshoot something, it's all in one

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Speaker 4: in industrial cluster. It's all a company and its subsidiaries

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Speaker 4: or its sister partner companies, right, and so they can

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Speaker 4: quickly trouble through things really quickly. So that's going to

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Speaker 4: be your industrial production component very strong. You've got you know,

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Speaker 4: people work longer hours, they'll work through weekends, they'll work

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Speaker 4: through holidays. China is really really competent at building very

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Speaker 4: large construction, very large infrastructure. Right it could be a dam,

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Speaker 4: or a bridge, or a highway or a high speed railway,

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Speaker 4: or a nuclear reactor. When it comes to the construction

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Speaker 4: know how of being able to do it on time

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Speaker 4: and like an oiled machine, they're winning there too. And

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Speaker 4: then we talk about the actual way they're building the

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Speaker 4: nuclear power plants. There's something really interesting here. This was

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Speaker 4: actually pioneered by Westinghouse out of the United States, something

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Speaker 4: called modularized construction, where on site or off site you're

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Speaker 4: prefabricating large portions of the reactor, portions of the containment building,

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Speaker 4: and so you can work on individual components at the

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Speaker 4: same time, bring it to site, and then you get

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Speaker 4: the largest crane in the world that lifts this massive, massive,

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Speaker 4: pre assembled component into place. When you're able to work

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Speaker 4: like that, you can cut down the construction schedule. Even

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Speaker 4: more interestingly, Westinghouse pioneered that that they haven't been really

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Speaker 4: successful in implementing it in their recent builds. China, on

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Speaker 4: the other hand, learned from Westinghouse and has been very

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Speaker 4: successful with this modulized construction approach.

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Speaker 2: Can you talk more about that, because it's very intuitive, right,

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Speaker 2: the idea that the more you can build at the

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Speaker 2: factory and the less you have to build on site

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Speaker 2: makes it easy and a lot of the so far,

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Speaker 2: it seems like mostly hype about small modular reactors in

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Speaker 2: the US is sort of on this idea, like why

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Speaker 2: don't start every project from scratch? Why is it apparently

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Speaker 2: hard even though in theory that seems very obvious because

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Speaker 2: I don't know if there actually are any modular reactors

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Speaker 2: in the US despite the sort of intuitive appeal.

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Speaker 4: So I think I gotta clarify here, there's modularized construction,

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Speaker 4: and there's small modular reactors. Okay, So SMRs or small

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Speaker 4: modular reactors, they refer to a situation where the entire

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Speaker 4: reactor is encased in a single unit.

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Speaker 2: Oh, okay, got it. Yeah, But it's still this idea

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Speaker 2: that the lot of the fabrication process happens not at

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Speaker 2: the site itself. Again, something that feels highly intuitive and

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Speaker 2: apparently easier so than time.

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Speaker 4: Well, so my understanding from the Westinghouse design approach when

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Speaker 4: they used this for the first time in designing the

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Speaker 4: AP one thousand technology that we're built here in Vocal

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Speaker 4: in the United States. Is one of the major barriers. Well,

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Speaker 4: there's terveral. There's always going to be regulatory barriers, right,

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Speaker 4: it's a new way of doing things. Anytime it's a

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Speaker 4: new way of doing things, the regulator is going to

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Speaker 4: want you to jump through a million hoops to try

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Speaker 4: to clarify and justify that what you're doing is defensible

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Speaker 4: and safe. So you've got that one, of course, But

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Speaker 4: then the actual logistics of lifting these massive, massive, we're

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Speaker 4: talking thousands of tons of prefab components. They actually had

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Speaker 4: to design and then especially contract the world's largest heavy

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Speaker 4: lift crane. Westinghouse did just to be able to lift

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Speaker 4: the first one. They worked with an American company to

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Speaker 4: design to custom design this giant fixed base ring crane

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Speaker 4: that requires other cranes to build it. Then you have

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Speaker 4: this giant, giant crane that's in place and it swings around.

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Speaker 4: It usually works for two different units to build two

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Speaker 4: reactors at the same site. Interestingly, they weren't able to

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Speaker 4: use this giant giant crane in China because of a

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Speaker 4: design miscommunication. The first AP one thousands that Westinghouse tried

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Speaker 4: to build in China, they didn't leave space on the

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Speaker 4: site to put the giant crane, so in the end

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Speaker 4: they had to use a very very large roller crane instead,

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Speaker 4: which just about did the job, but it forced them

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Speaker 4: to change the way they built it. China has learned

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Speaker 4: from that though. So the newest you know, QUA long

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Speaker 4: one reactors that China builds, they use a giant ring crane.

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Speaker 4: I believe they use a zoom lion. It's a Chinese

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Speaker 4: brand has designed one of these, built one of these

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Speaker 4: massive ultra heavy lift cranes as well, and so now

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Speaker 4: that's you know, they're reaping those benefits.

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Speaker 3: I have a slightly random question, which is building nuclear reactors.

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Speaker 3: How customized do the components that go into these actually

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Speaker 3: have to be? Like how much does the design actually

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Speaker 3: vary site to site?

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Speaker 4: Well, if they are the same series of reactors, right,

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Speaker 4: you could say the AP one thousand, right, that's a

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Speaker 4: base unit. Now the ones that are built in vocal

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Speaker 4: and the ones that were being built at Summer in

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Speaker 4: South Carolina before that was canceled. Those were probably a

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Speaker 4: little bit different, right, but you know, largely part of

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Speaker 4: the same series. The ones that were built in China

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Speaker 4: were built on that same platform, but they would have

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Speaker 4: been modified a little bit for the Chinese context. They

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Speaker 4: called them Chinese AP one thousands CAP one thousands, but

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Speaker 4: you could say they're substantially the same reactor with with

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Speaker 4: small modifications. When we start talking about different series, though,

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Speaker 4: if we say, like the French design versus the US

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Speaker 4: design versus what's being sold now in Korea or something

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Speaker 4: like that, you'll see more similarities to their predecessors that

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Speaker 4: they came up through different generations of technology. So like Korea,

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Speaker 4: you'd see similarities to the old ge Hatachi reactors because

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Speaker 4: that's where they got their technology originally. Then you'd see

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Speaker 4: to say a modern EIGHTP one thousand. These are different

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Speaker 4: tech trees from different competitors.

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Speaker 2: So if I'm a guy on Twitter listening to this,

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Speaker 2: and I am a guy on Twitter, except I'm talking

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Speaker 2: in this, but I'm just a guy on Twitter and

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Speaker 2: I'm hearing you talk about, okay, they get preferential lending

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Speaker 2: from the state owned bank. The company is state owned.

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Speaker 2: Probably the crane company is state owned. There's probably a

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Speaker 2: few other state owned businesses, and I think, yeah, okay,

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Speaker 2: you know, they're really good at building reactors fast. But

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Speaker 2: there must be some sort of accumulated debts and inefficiencies

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Speaker 2: that come with all of these all of these entities

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Speaker 2: that have something other than a profit motive. And you know,

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Speaker 2: probably you know, I don't know that my intuition or

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Speaker 2: my response to you, or my my dunk on you

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Speaker 2: is that there's going to be all these accumulated losses

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Speaker 2: that ripple through the systems on account of the fact

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Speaker 2: that it's SOOE working with see after SOE. Do we

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Speaker 2: have any sense of how economic these projects actually are

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Speaker 2: Because if these were private companies, you say, oh, they're

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Speaker 2: either making money, or if these were sort of strictly

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Speaker 2: for profit listed companies, you say, well, they're making money,

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Speaker 2: they're not making money. Whatever. How do we think about

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Speaker 2: the actual economics of whether this is good investment? Because

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Speaker 2: it's cool, Yeah, you know, China's building dozens of reactors,

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Speaker 2: How do we know these are good economic investments?

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Speaker 4: Well, unless I can crack open you know, China National

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Speaker 4: Nuclear Corporations books like, I can't tell you for sure

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Speaker 4: these are good investments. Right, But when they build them

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Speaker 4: at that pace, when you look at it from the

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Speaker 4: outside and you say, all the conditions are in place

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Speaker 4: to have surely built this according to the budget set

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Speaker 4: for yourself. Right, you declared that you would build it

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Speaker 4: with a certain budget and a certain time. You talk

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Speaker 4: about the budget, right, So you're looking at you know,

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Speaker 4: your construction period of five years, your pre construction and

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Speaker 4: your commissioning. You add another five years or so, right.

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Speaker 4: But then once they build it, they're saying, you know,

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Speaker 4: we can build a single gigawatt unit reactor for five

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Speaker 4: billion dollars four and a half billion, five billion. You

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Speaker 4: look at numbers out of the US and they're saying,

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Speaker 4: we're going to build what Vogel cost was two units

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Speaker 4: for twenty eight billion dollars or something like that. You

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Speaker 4: do a little bit of Napkin math and you say

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Speaker 4: that reactor can't possibly make back how much money it

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Speaker 4: costs to build and it's operating lifetime, or maybe it

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Speaker 4: will just about get there after forty years. And that's

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Speaker 4: assuming that this plant operates in the spot markets really

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Speaker 4: really well and sells power so efficiently and never gets

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Speaker 4: curtailed and never has issues like that. Meanwhile, your napkin

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Speaker 4: math in China is saying, well, they're going to sell

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Speaker 4: power at this rate for the next forty, maybe sixty years.

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Speaker 4: Maybe they'll do double life extension, maybe eight eighty years.

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Speaker 4: And you know, so many kiloot hours of power times

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Speaker 4: so much per kilo a lot hour. Yeah, it looks

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Speaker 4: like these things should be reasonably profitable. And keep in

434
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 4: mind the profit motive of Chinese soees is different, right,

435
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 4: They're expected to try to be profitable so they have

436
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,440
Speaker 4: cash flow to do things and you know, be functional.

437
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 4: But if they have to take a hit sometimes they will.

438
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 4: They can be the lubricant in the system that causes

439
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 4: the inefficiencies to be okay. Because you've got you know,

440
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 4: a major SOE that was okay, losing half a billion

441
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 4: dollars last year. They'll make it back later. It's okay.

442
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 4: The system didn't fall apart. They were the lubricant.

443
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,919
Speaker 3: So one way we could potentially judge the success of

444
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 3: Chinese nuclear reactors is you could look at whether or

445
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 3: not they are significantly changing the energy mix. And there

446
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 3: was a story out this week saying that China's domestic

447
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 3: coal production had reached an all time high and granted

448
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: that's production that's not necessarily coal use, but I don't know,

449
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 3: it doesn't seem like there's been a big impact just yet.

450
00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 3: Why is that?

451
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 4: And yeah, and that's right, I saw that yesterday too.

452
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 4: I'm bummed about that because I'm on record saying back

453
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 4: in December twenty twenty three that I thought twenty twenty

454
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 4: four would be the peak year, and I thought structurally

455
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,120
Speaker 4: we were in place to be able to peak coal

456
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 4: consumption in twenty twenty four, and I think we're going

457
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 4: to end up up one one point five percent year

458
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 4: on year something like that, which for China is a

459
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 4: huge amount of coal because they consume so much coal.

460
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 4: But it's really close, which of course means if we're

461
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 4: up year on year and last year was the highest

462
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 4: year ever, than this year is the highest test year ever.

463
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 4: And so what are we looking at though? We're looking

464
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 4: at a power sector that is still growing consumption every

465
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 4: year by seven percent year on year, six or seven

466
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 4: percent year on year, compared to the US, where a

467
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 4: good year is maybe like one percent or half a

468
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 4: percent year on year, and you talk about data center

469
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 4: demand growth is going to maybe rise that and everybody's

470
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 4: freaking out, how are we going to meet this new

471
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 4: consumption need. China's been growing like that seven percent eight

472
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 4: percent in the past. It was even higher for decades now.

473
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,239
Speaker 4: So it to be the peak coal consumption, we have

474
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 4: to get to a single year where all of the

475
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 4: incremental consumption growth is met by incremental generation from clean assets,

476
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 4: right from wind and water and solar and nuclear. If

477
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 4: we can't manage to do that in one year where

478
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 4: all the incremental growth is covered by new incremental clean generation,

479
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 4: thermal generation has to go up. And so that's still

480
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 4: where we're at. We're real close. If it only grew

481
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,959
Speaker 4: by one point five percent this year, that means that

482
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 4: seven percent of China's entire consumption mix was almost totally

483
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 4: covered by growth year on year of wind and water

484
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 4: and solar and nuclear. But it wasn't quite there. And

485
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,239
Speaker 4: so that's where we stand at twenty twenty four. I'm

486
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 4: going to be made a liar of that statement I

487
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 4: made at the end of last year where I thought

488
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 4: coal consumption would peak this year.

489
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 2: Since you mentioned it, Data centers is obviously a huge

490
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: part of the story of the return of load growth

491
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 2: in the US. I mean, there's obviously just the general

492
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 2: modernization and country getting wealthier. But tell us about the

493
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,199
Speaker 2: data center's story in China as you see it and

494
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 2: it's impact on the grid.

495
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's of course going to be a other growth driver.

496
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 4: The major difference here is that when China says, oh,

497
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 4: we've got data centers coming in, so instead of six

498
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 4: point five percent growth, it's going to be seven point

499
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 4: five percent growth. Right, It's just what's a percentage point

500
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 4: among friends? Right, Whereas the United States going from half

501
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 4: a percentage point to one point five or two percent

502
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 4: is very different from how we've had to grow in

503
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 4: the past. So China's i think approaching this with much

504
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 4: more sanguinity, maybe that they're just saying, yeah, it's going

505
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 4: to be a driver of growth. Let's put them in

506
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 4: some of our parts of the country that have low

507
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,879
Speaker 4: load and great renewable resources. Or we're gonna put them

508
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 4: in Inner Mongolia is what we're going to put them. We're

509
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 4: going to put growth demand centers in inner Mongolia. They

510
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 4: don't need to be close to the.

511
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 2: Is inner Mongolia.

512
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's sparsely populated, it's got a lot of

513
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 4: great energy resources. The wind blows and the sunshines, all

514
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 4: day long and there's no load out there, so it

515
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 4: wouldn't have made so much sense maybe to cite you know,

516
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 4: your heavy energy intensive industrial manufacturing so far from the

517
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,360
Speaker 4: demand center, so far from the coasts where you could

518
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 4: get it to logistics. Oh, they put some stuff out there,

519
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 4: but it wasn't so intuitive to put energy intensive industry

520
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 4: out there. But data centers, Oh, that's great, right. They

521
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,479
Speaker 4: don't need to be close to markets per se, you

522
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 4: just need to get be them close to the affordable energy.

523
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 4: So it's looking like inn Moongolia or places like that

524
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 4: will be a great match for China's data center growth.

525
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 3: So one of the things that's been happening in the

526
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 3: US speaking of data centers is a lot of the

527
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 3: big tech companies have been signing off take agreements with

528
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 3: energy producers and they've been pushing them towards more renewable energy.

529
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 3: So they say, we want clean energy to power these things,

530
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 3: and you make it for us and we'll take it.

531
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 3: Do you see a similar dynamic taking place in China

532
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,360
Speaker 3: or do people not care as much about the ultimate

533
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 3: cleanliness of their energy for data centers.

534
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:51,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a major driver of how the power sector

535
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 4: offers power. Right, your customers demand a certain type of power,

536
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 4: you should be able to meet their needs. Right now,

537
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 4: in China, you'd split, or in anywhere anywhere in the world,

538
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,439
Speaker 4: not just in China, you'd split green power consumption on

539
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 4: the end user end into voluntary and mandatory. So mandatory

540
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 4: says the government says you have to consume a certain

541
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,439
Speaker 4: amount of electricity that is green. We call it a

542
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 4: renewable portfolio standard or an RPS. Right there's RPS and

543
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 4: US states, not all of them, but some of them,

544
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 4: and there's RPS in China. So from that perspective, you

545
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 4: could say the government mandates that you consume a certain

546
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 4: amount of renewable energy to meet the quota. Now. Right now,

547
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 4: that applies to utilities in China, but it doesn't yet

548
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 4: apply to end users. Your aluminum smelter doesn't have that

549
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 4: man yet. But that's the next stage of RPS that's

550
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 4: being added right now. Data centers I think need to

551
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 4: be it's quite high. I think it's eighty percent renewable.

552
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 4: To build a new data center in China, you're going

553
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 4: to need to have aluminum and steel and all these

554
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 4: heavy energy intensive industries need to consume renewable, so that's

555
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 4: your mandatory consumption, that's RPS driven, and then you've got

556
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 4: your voluntary consumption. So voluntary consumption, you know, corporate social

557
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 4: responsibility initiatives ESG companies say we want to go green.

558
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 4: We want to put it in our CSR report that

559
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 4: we consumed x amount of renewables last year. We did

560
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 4: this on a voluntary basis. We joined ARE one hundred,

561
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 4: we joined the Science Based Targets initiative, and we want

562
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 4: to claim that we are green. Yet that's your consumer

563
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 4: tech brands, that's your luxury fashion and increasing. A lot

564
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 4: of European brands are very aggressive on their renewable energy consumption,

565
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 4: including in China. So if you're producing in China and

566
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 4: selling to the world, you want to be able to

567
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 4: say our production in China was also green. So that's

568
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 4: voluntary consumption of green power. But you demand your power

569
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,959
Speaker 4: retailer to provide you with green electricity and they'll give

570
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 4: you a quote for green electricity.

571
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 2: We started on the nuclear side, we talked coal, but

572
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 2: then we're all, well, you know, there's all these charts

573
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 2: that are you know, great about all this solar being interstalled?

574
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 2: Is the economics of that roughly the same in the

575
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 2: sense that it's probably an sooe getting money from an

576
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 2: so E bank, and talk to us about who's funding

577
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 2: that and where does it make sense, like why in

578
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 2: some places is solar going to be a solar wind

579
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 2: part of the answer versus say nuclear.

580
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 4: Right, So when it comes to wind and solar, these

581
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 4: are being built differently from nuclear, right, they're not nearly

582
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 4: as capital intensive. Also, they can be smaller, they can

583
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 4: be more distributed. And so when you look at Chinese

584
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 4: wind and solar, of course you still see sooees playing

585
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 4: a big role, but there are as well IPPs independent

586
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 4: power producers or just non soees right, as well as

587
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 4: foreign players. So you as a you know, a foreign

588
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 4: investor who you know like black Rock, can come into

589
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 4: China and build a power plant if they want to,

590
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 4: a wind or a solar farm, no problem. And so

591
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 4: anyone can participate in that space if they do their

592
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 4: financial analysis and they see the way to attractive project economics.

593
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 4: So for Chinese builders, they borrow from Chinese banks, as

594
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 4: will Chinese independent borrowers. Then international players they might borrow

595
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 4: from international banks. They might try to borrow from Chinese banks.

596
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 4: They can do that as well. They will get you know,

597
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 4: market competitive rates. This is a different kind of building

598
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 4: compared to nuclear, where it's instead of it's like a

599
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 4: national strategic priority. To build a rooftop solar facility, now

600
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 4: that's much more of a commercial market operation. However, there

601
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 4: are some projects in China that are national strategic priority.

602
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 4: We talk about those huge desert bases, you know, hundreds

603
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 4: of megawats, gigawats, hundreds of gigawats in the middle of

604
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 4: the Gobi desert, coal plants plus a wind farm, plus

605
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 4: a solar farm, plus a huge battery array, all financed

606
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 4: by a giant Chinese built by a Chinese soe. That's

607
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 4: the kind of stuff that that kind of looks more

608
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 4: like a nuclear power plant in the way that they

609
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 4: finance and process that. But you know, rooftop solar facility

610
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 4: in eastern China, now that's very much just a commercial play.

611
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 4: If it makes money, if it makes sense, they'll build it.

612
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 3: So when we talk about China's energy landscape or its

613
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 3: energy mix, I mean a lot of what we're talking

614
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 3: about we're pulling in numbers from the Chinese government, right

615
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 3: like domestic production numbers, domestic usage numbers, and whenever you

616
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 3: do that, there's always a certain element of uncertainty or

617
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 3: a question mark over them. And there are some people

618
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 3: who even if you were to say that China's coal

619
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 3: production was finally falling, which it isn't, as you know,

620
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 3: people wouldn't necessarily believe it. They'd be like, oh, well,

621
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 3: China wants.

622
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 4: You to think that.

623
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 3: So I guess my question is like, how much should

624
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 3: we believe some of these stats?

625
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, and this is going to be always very subjective

626
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 4: about how much you want to believe or how much

627
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 4: you think is worthwhile believing. My take that I usually

628
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 4: go to is like, look at the top levels. You've

629
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 4: got your National Bureau of Statistics, You've got these you know,

630
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 4: national level entities, who's their job mandate is to report

631
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 4: statistics as faithfully and as honestly as they can. All right, fine,

632
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 4: you know what, that's their job mandate. No latitude to

633
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 4: say I think they're doing their job dishonestly or something

634
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 4: like that. But I do believe there are many kind

635
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 4: of perverse incentives throughout the structure of the reporting economy

636
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 4: in China that would create opportunity for misreporting information. When

637
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 4: you tie you know, the county governor's promotion or lack thereof,

638
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 4: to his ability to grow GDP in that province or

639
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 4: in that county. You're creating the incentive for him to

640
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 4: cook the data when you're creating economic recovery. And you

641
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 4: announced to and this happened. This is a real story

642
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: when you announce to a certain city in twenty twenty

643
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 4: two that you're going to be evaluating how quickly they've

644
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 4: recovered from COVID conditions by seeing how quickly their factories

645
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 4: get back up to regular production. And you know that

646
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 4: they're measuring that by seeing how much electricity they consume.

647
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 4: All all of a sudden, you have.

648
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 3: A sent everyone starts plugging stuff in.

649
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 4: Right, So if you can say that people are trying

650
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 4: to do their jobs honestly, and then you also have

651
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 4: people that have been given perverse incentives to to misreport

652
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 4: did I think that's where a lot of the uncertainty.

653
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 2: I mean, this is the core problem of Central Plan.

654
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 2: I mean, this is it in a nutshell. And obviously

655
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 2: the most egregious examples of this were, you know, during

656
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 2: the Great Leap Forward and all of the ways that

657
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 2: either they you know, the steel production that was melting

658
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 2: down literally anything of steel and destroying the economy in

659
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, What are some of the techniques used

660
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 2: to avoid sort of egregious jerking of the stats so that, yeah,

661
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 2: someone's promotion who is tied to electricity consumption can't be

662
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 2: sort of egregiously abused like that.

663
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I mean famously or perhaps infamously. So I

664
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 4: think it ended up it came out of like a

665
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 4: WikiLeaks something that that the former premier Leika Chung said

666
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 4: he didn't look at GDP data in certain prices, and

667
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 4: now that's on the terminal, Yeah, the le Ka Chug index,

668
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 4: and he said I prefer to look at I think

669
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 4: it was a rail cargo and electricity consumption and or

670
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 4: the third item two right, He said that these items,

671
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 4: you know, the people in charge of reporting them, there's

672
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 4: you know, My assumption is that his logic was there's

673
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 4: less incentives to misreport these, so that these are the

674
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 4: ones I want to look at, and you can maybe

675
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 4: come up with your own version of the modern day

676
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 4: Leka Chang index. I think electricity consumption is still fine,

677
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:18,959
Speaker 4: but maybe there's some other numbers that you say, look,

678
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 4: this is all very centralized reporting. The reason I like

679
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 4: electricity because it's all state grid, right, those numbers almost

680
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 4: all come from state grid, and state grid is just

681
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 4: a single unified entity. You're not gathering data points from

682
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 4: many different companies. Maybe other stuff like we talk about

683
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 4: cargo right again, China railways. Yeah, you have one centralized

684
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 4: company that would be able to report that information. So

685
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 4: if you want to modern you know, fashion your modern

686
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 4: Leka Chang index, maybe try those types of indices.

687
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 2: So one other element obviously of the Chinese energy to man.

688
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 2: We've talked a lot about the grid obviously and the

689
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,360
Speaker 2: power of the grid. Then there is the whole world

690
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 2: of automobiles, which up until very recently was this totally

691
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 2: separate part of the energy system, but now it's around

692
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 2: the world, but in particular China, and we talk about

693
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 2: Chinese EV's all the time being plugged into the grid.

694
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 2: How much do we see the electrification of the Chinese

695
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 2: automobile fleet, Like A, how electrified is it right now?

696
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 2: And B isn't moving the dial on oil consumption because

697
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 2: this is a pretty big question in the West, right,

698
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 2: like at some point will EV's become big enough where

699
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 2: meaningfully starts to reduce our oil demand, and even in

700
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 2: countries like Norway, I think like it's still barely moving

701
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 2: the dial despite mass of electrification. What are we seeing

702
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 2: in China right now on that.

703
00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 4: Front, Yeah, I mean in the major cities you say,

704
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 4: shen Jen, Shanghai, Beijing, in places like this, the EV

705
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 4: penetration rate is noticeably high, and you'll see that they're

706
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 4: easily identifiable. They have green license plates instead of the

707
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 4: regular blue license plates, so you can just kind of

708
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 4: look at them on the street. It's very expensive to

709
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,399
Speaker 4: get a license plate in Shanghai. Just the license plate

710
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 4: itself is expensive, but EV's for a long time were free,

711
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 4: like a the license plate was free, so that was

712
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,919
Speaker 4: a great perk for them to pursue those. And yeah, there,

713
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 4: I think it was. New vehicle sales in Shanghai, for example,

714
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 4: was fifty percent electric vehicles in the last reporting session.

715
00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 4: And it's really noticeable when you stand on a street

716
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 4: corner in Shanghai, and I guess it's noticeable by the

717
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 4: lack of the noise.

718
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 2: I heard that everyone goes to Shanghai and says it's

719
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 2: really quiet.

720
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 4: That's you know. Look, I'm back in New York right

721
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 4: now for the first time in a year and I

722
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 4: stand on a street corner. It's so loud, and I

723
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 4: hadn't really noted the lack of the noise because I'm

724
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 4: just used to it now and it's it's I hear

725
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 4: the roar of petroleum based engines all around me. Yeah.

726
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 4: So EV's in the large cities, penetration rates noticeably high.

727
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 4: In the smaller cities still fairly high. When you go

728
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 4: out to the more rural areas, it's going to drop off.

729
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 4: Of course, there's more skepticism about the completeness of the

730
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 4: charging network, just maybe some more uncertainty about the technology itself.

731
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 4: You'll hear people in the countryside say all batteries are dangerous,

732
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:01,879
Speaker 4: heard that I saw a video once of an EV

733
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 4: on fire, things like that. Similar you know comments in

734
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 4: the United States too. But the long term, the EV

735
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 4: penetration rate will will only continue to rise.

736
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 2: It's national oil consumption, I believe, so I think.

737
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 4: I saw now. I'm not an oil specialist, but I

738
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:22,040
Speaker 4: think I've seen and I've read recently that that Chinese

739
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 4: oil imports should have peaked right, that they should have

740
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 4: be ready to draw down. If you know, if I'm

741
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 4: lying here, May God smite me down. But I think

742
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 4: that that was the case, and that we see a

743
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 4: structural decline in petroleum because of the adoption of evs.

744
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 3: So, speaking of EV's, there is a lot of Chinese

745
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 3: made clean tech that is here in the US, including

746
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 3: solar panels as well. And this has been one of

747
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 3: the frictions of the past few years, which is, you know,

748
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 3: the US says it wants cleaner energy, and Chinese solar

749
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 3: panels and evs are probably the cheapest forms of that

750
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,280
Speaker 3: technology around. And yes, there's a lot of I guess,

751
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 3: reluctance to import tons of those into the US, and

752
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 3: certainly with Trump coming in, it seems like tariffs are

753
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 3: on their way. How do you see all of that

754
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 3: shaking out into the new year.

755
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 4: Yeah. Look, in the United States, you're gonna decarbonize or

756
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 4: you're gonna buy green tech at exactly the rate that

757
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 4: is economic. Yeah, And so if you have access to

758
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 4: very affordable green tech, you'll do it at a faster rate.

759
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 4: If you have access to more expensive green tech, you'll

760
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 4: do it more slowly. And so I have to assume

761
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 4: that if those tariffs go in place, unless alternative producers

762
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 4: are able to offer similar quality goods at similar prices,

763
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 4: then you're going to slow down your green transition. It's

764
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,839
Speaker 4: maybe a simple but obvious kind of answer there. On

765
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 4: the Chinese side, of course, there will be some pain

766
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 4: for exporters, anyone exposed to the United States market. Some

767
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 4: solar panels, maybe some VS, some batteries I think are

768
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 4: pretty significant if those are target it. Yeah, you'd expect

769
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 4: to see some pain on the Chinese side there. It's

770
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 4: already an extremely extremely competitive environment in China. Most of

771
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 4: these producers are in very thin profit margins, hanging on

772
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 4: by a threat. It's good for consumers, it's not good

773
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 4: for if you're holding those stocks. So this would only

774
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 4: just be another bit of pain for them. Denial of

775
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 4: a potential revenue channel.

776
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 2: Since you mentioned EV charging stations, we have this sort

777
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 2: of weird patchwork here, and there's a lot of I'm

778
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 2: a little ambiguity about the US government under Biden has

779
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: remarked a lot of money to build EV charging stations.

780
00:39:36,080 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 2: It's a little unclear how much actually got built Publicly.

781
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 2: There seems to be a view that it hasn't been

782
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 2: particularly successful on the public side. What is the structure

783
00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 2: of the buildout for charging stations in China. Is it

784
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 2: publicly owned? Is it what's the deal?

785
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,439
Speaker 4: It's all of the above, I guess. So you've got

786
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 4: you know, China State Grid or China Southern Grid. But

787
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 4: grid companies they build charging infrastructure. Some of the ev

788
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 4: acres themselves build their own charging infrastructure, maybe like a

789
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 4: Tesla supercharger, right. Some of them also build their own

790
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 4: battery swap stations. I think Neo is quite famous for

791
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 4: having battery swap stations. You can go pretty much any

792
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 4: highway rest stop in China and you can find a

793
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:16,240
Speaker 4: Neo battery swap station.

794
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 2: So then there's no time you just swap.

795
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 4: It in and out. Yeah, I'm there's a line to

796
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 4: wait for the battery swap station if another Neo pulls

797
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,840
Speaker 4: ahead of you. But besides that, I mean, I think

798
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 4: the major thrust, at least the ones that I've seen

799
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 4: recently in the Southern Grid region have been by the

800
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 4: grid company itself. Right, So, China Southern Grid. I remember

801
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 4: reading last year they said, ah, you know, we're planning

802
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 4: to build one hundred thousand chargers this year. We're you know,

803
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 4: three months in, we're seventeen thousand chargers in so far,

804
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 4: we're on track to finish our goal by the end

805
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 4: of the year. And you do see it when you

806
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 4: go to regions that have been targeted for those buildouts. Right.

807
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 4: You can go to fairly rural areas in say Gwanboon

808
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 4: Province down in the south and you'll find EV chargers

809
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,719
Speaker 4: installed there by China Southern Grid in a village where

810
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 4: I don't think there are necessarily any evs, but hey,

811
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 4: they got the infrastructure there because they said we're going

812
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 4: to build one hundred K, and so they built a

813
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 4: hundred K.

814
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 2: David Fisherman, so great to chat with you again, especially

815
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 2: in person, and I'm so glad you have other things

816
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 2: to worry about besides figuring out how to get food

817
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: in your apartment. Really appreciate you coming back on odline.

818
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 4: Thanks a lot for having you guys.

819
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 2: That was really helpful, Tracy, that I learned all the

820
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,399
Speaker 2: things more or less that I wanted to know about.

821
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 2: How they're building so much a nuclear.

822
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, what's that?

823
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 2: React?

824
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 3: Well, it does. It leaves me wondering how like replicable

825
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 3: it is in other countries, right, because obviously in places

826
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 3: like the US, we don't really have subsidized finance on

827
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 3: the scale that China does. We don't have a lot

828
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 3: of cheap and skilled labor at the same time, and

829
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 3: we don't have some of the let's put it this way,

830
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 3: like regulatory hastiness maybe in approving these sites and these things.

831
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 3: I don't know, like how replicable do you think it is?

832
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 2: No, this is the exact question, because you know there's

833
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 2: some subsidy the loan Program's office exists, but we don't

834
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 2: know the same gigantic state owned banks. Yeah, and then

835
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 2: even if you solve the financing problem, and even if

836
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 2: you solve the market off take problem, which is going

837
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:34,240
Speaker 2: to be very different, right because we have market grids

838
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,319
Speaker 2: in a lot of parts of the country and so

839
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: it's hard to sort of make that forty year commitment

840
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 2: that you will get this price. Then there's all the

841
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 2: logistics like, oh, you needed this gigantic crane that's the

842
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 2: biggest crane in the history of.

843
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:48,799
Speaker 3: Now you need a big crane to make the big

844
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 3: crane you.

845
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 2: Need to make. So this gets to I mean, this

846
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 2: is a point that jigger Shaw makes all the time,

847
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 2: but this idea that we're never going to really do

848
00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 2: this economically, And David just mentioned the sort of daunting

849
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:04,760
Speaker 2: economics of Vogel. We're never gonna do this economically unless

850
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 2: we do it over and over and over and over again.

851
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 2: And it feels like the components of what it would

852
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:11,839
Speaker 2: actually take to do it over and over and over

853
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 2: again is this massive centralized commitment to doing lots of

854
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 2: different parts. And you know, it sounds like the regulatory

855
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 2: side or the permitting thing that seems about the same.

856
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 2: And the fact that the public can complain about endangered

857
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: fish and all that, that's sort of similar. So people

858
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 2: complain about annoying local nimbi's. That doesn't really sound that

859
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 2: much different. It sounds like everything else that's different.

860
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 3: I suspect the nimbiism is slightly different too, But point taken,

861
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 3: and I do wonder, like, how do you even go

862
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 3: about beginning to redevelop that nuclear muscle memory in the States.

863
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 3: It seems really really hard, Like, Okay, we can reactivate

864
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 3: some nuclear reactors like we're planning to, but starting like

865
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 3: new ones from scratch. It just seems like there's such

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00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 3: a limited pool of people who are cape of doing

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00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 3: that and then putting in place, As you rightly pointed out,

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00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 3: all the off take agreements and the network and everything

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00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 3: needed to kind of make those things financially viable. It

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00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 3: seems hard.

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00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm glad you asked that question about

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00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,279
Speaker 2: coal consumption that because that was really helpful, because it's

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00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 2: one thing to say, well, another record year for coal consumption.

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00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 2: But I guess the way I think about it, at

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00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 2: least in the short term, we don't know when that's.

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00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 3: Not coal consumption, it's production, just to be.

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00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 2: Coal production, but it's really going to be about like

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00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 2: if coal is in fact as a part of the

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00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 2: you know, if it's only growing one percent, but electricity

880
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:41,640
Speaker 2: demand is growing six to seven percent, that is a

881
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 2: good sign, right, even if it's not bending the curve

882
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 2: down yet.

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00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 3: M hm. Anyway, it's funny I will always associate Beijing

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00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 3: with lots and lots of burning coal in the winter.

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00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 2: By the way, I had heard that about how apparently

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00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 2: the big cities now are really quiet, which is pretty cool,

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00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: and once self driving cars are everywhere, there will be

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00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 2: no honking either, and so we can look forward to

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00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 2: a future maybe one day we very peaceful, peaceful, quiet

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00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 2: big cities.

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00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 3: All right, something to hope for. Shall we leave it there?

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00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 2: Let's leave it there.

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Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the Authoughts podcast. I'm

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00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 3: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

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00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 2: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

896
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 2: Follow our guest David Fishman, He's at Pretentious What. Follow

897
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:30,280
Speaker 2: our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carman armand dash Ol Bennett

898
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 2: at Dashbot and Kilbrooks at Kilbrooks. Thank you to our

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00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 2: producer Moses Ondam from our odlots content. Go to Bloomberg

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00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:39,640
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902
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 2: of these topics, including energy and China, where we have

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904
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Speaker 2: out Lots.

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Speaker 3: And if you enjoy a thoughts, if you like it

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