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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: That action.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go front throwing out song respect we're sitting.

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Speaker 4: It's a cash touchdown and that's.

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Speaker 2: All we see.

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Speaker 4: Most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 4: to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 4: bo and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined by

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Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week eight.

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Speaker 2: We will get to those best bets shortly, but first

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Speaker 2: we've got some fun trends and talking points that I

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Speaker 2: want to get to before we move on. So number

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Speaker 2: one and me and Brandon kind of went over this

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Speaker 2: before we started here because we really want to hit

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Speaker 2: on the stuff that we're interested at the moment. And

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure how you talk about anything else but

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Speaker 2: the Indianapolis Calls. So let me just give you a

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Speaker 2: few facts, and obviously Brandon'll give us some analysis on

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Speaker 2: what he thinks afterwards. But right now, Daniel Jones knows

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Speaker 2: something about overcoming expectations because he's doing it currently. Culture

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Speaker 2: six and one they entered the year with a win

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Speaker 2: total of seven and a half. Now, the only recent

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Speaker 2: example of a team starting six and one with a

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Speaker 2: win total below eight were the Giants in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: who started six and one win total of seven, of course,

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Speaker 2: led by Daniel Jones as well. Just absolutely ridiculous hearing

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Speaker 2: these things. I'll give you one more, which I put

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Speaker 2: in my article this week, but this just proves I

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Speaker 2: think what he's doing a and play action would be

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Speaker 2: under pressure to kind of help this offense move along

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Speaker 2: and be so efficient in their drives. So Daniel Jones

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Speaker 2: eighty two dropbacks under pressure. His sixty two point seven

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Speaker 2: completion percentage is second the NFL to Dak But what's

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Speaker 2: ridiculous is he has no turnover worthy plays and he

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Speaker 2: is eighty two drop backs under pressure. And the ridiculous

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Speaker 2: stat is the fact that the next closest quarterback to

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Speaker 2: Jones and dropbacks with zero turnover worthy plays is Joe

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Speaker 2: Burrow with twenty. He hasn't played since the middle of

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Speaker 2: Week two, So that's what Daniel Jones is doing here.

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Speaker 2: I'll let Brandon before I give you my other one.

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Speaker 2: Any just comment on what you think Indianapolis is doing

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Speaker 2: right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they're just mowing teams down right now,

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Speaker 1: and they are what fourteen fourteen and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorites against Tennessee obviously should be another big win for them.

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Speaker 4: I tweeted this out.

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Speaker 1: So here's my one concern with the Colts. They just

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Speaker 1: can't be any better than they've been so far. And

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Speaker 1: the schedule it gets a lot tougher going forward. So

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Speaker 1: even including the game to come, so far the season,

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Speaker 1: the Colts have faced, by DVA, the nineteenth hardest schedule,

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Speaker 1: and obviously that number is going to get even softer

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Speaker 1: once you play Tennessee this week.

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Speaker 4: From here forward, including.

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Speaker 1: Tennessee, they face the toughest schedule of their offense against

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Speaker 1: defenses going forward, and defensively, same thing. They faced the

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Speaker 1: second easiest schedule. Defensively, they jump to thirteenth toughest forward,

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Speaker 1: and again that still counts Tennessee and the hard part

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Speaker 1: to come. So once you factor the Titans game in,

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Speaker 1: or just do the stat after the weekend, you're probably

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Speaker 1: looking at a top ten tough defensive schedule and the

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Speaker 1: number one tough offensive schedule.

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Speaker 4: And it's it's so good.

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Speaker 1: And Daniel Jones has been so good in a play

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Speaker 1: action and Jonathan Tire like everything is going so right.

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Speaker 1: Every number is an outlier that the only concern for

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Speaker 1: me is it can't get better. It has to regress

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Speaker 1: to the means some and they're so good so early.

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Speaker 1: What happens now when we get some of these tougher

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Speaker 1: games and you know, by the metrics, they're like forty

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Speaker 1: fifty percent for the one seed right now and a

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Speaker 1: lot of models out there, which is crazy. We didn't

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Speaker 1: even know if this was a playoff team or contender really,

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Speaker 1: So what will happen once the regression comes a little

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Speaker 1: bit and will it start to come even against Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: doesn't matter against Tennessee.

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Speaker 4: I'll have a little bit on that game later.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, nothing like a fourteen and a half point spread

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Speaker 2: for Daniel Jones totally in the preseason. I don't know

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Speaker 2: what you would have said. My last note here is

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Speaker 2: something you kind of want to talk about, and it's

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Speaker 2: been talked about by really anyone trying to handicap spreads

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Speaker 2: this week is how large the numbers are. So with

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Speaker 2: thirteen games, we have eight games with a spread of

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Speaker 2: six or more. I went just back to twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: so this would be the highest fifth highest percentage since

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty for a given week when it comes to

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Speaker 2: spreads six or higher. So it does happen kind of frequently,

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Speaker 2: it's not that crazy, but it is the second earliest

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Speaker 2: in a season. We've had this high of a number

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Speaker 2: since twenty twenty. So we're getting these high numbers early

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Speaker 2: in the year this year with maybe some of these

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Speaker 2: teams playing pretty poorly, some quarterback injuries, and all other

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Speaker 2: weeks on the list had fourteen plus games. We have

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Speaker 2: thirteen this week, So it's a little dramatic in the

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Speaker 2: case that we have eight such games. But in terms

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Speaker 2: of all these big spreads, and I said this on

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Speaker 2: the favorites when we recorded that earlier, that I just

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Speaker 2: felt like all the favorites this week, all those six

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Speaker 2: plus point favorites have like flaws, Like I feel like

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Speaker 2: there's something to poke into with each of those teams,

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Speaker 2: which and probably on the dog side as well, But

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Speaker 2: usually these favorites are more concrete. They feel better to

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Speaker 2: the better in terms of taking them having to lay

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Speaker 2: the points. But when you're talking about like Flacco Atlanta,

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Speaker 2: what Buffalo's done recently, Philly doesn't blow anybody out like

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Speaker 2: the Colts. It's just one by one. I think they

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Speaker 2: kind of understand what I mean. So what do you

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Speaker 2: think about this, Brandon?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like these like six seven eight point

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Speaker 1: spreads especially, they feel a lot more about the underdog

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Speaker 1: than the overdog, right, Like, sure, I don't know that's

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Speaker 1: necessarily like, oh, yeah, you know, I believe in is

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Speaker 1: Atlanta right now? Is like, well, but I believe in

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Speaker 1: Miami's sucking. I can believe in that right now. So

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Speaker 1: what if that keeps happening? And it's tricky. I think

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Speaker 1: it's a real minefield out here. Like if you're in

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Speaker 1: a survivor contest, you're probably down to the bottom, like

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five percent of the people remaining. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of what looked like good picks this week, like

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Speaker 1: oh well, let me just check off Atlanta and get

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Speaker 1: rid of that, or maybe Philadelphia. Cross them off my list. Well,

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Speaker 1: there's a reason you don't want to use them the

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Speaker 1: other weeks.

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Speaker 4: And are you sure sure.

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Speaker 1: That this is the week for those sorts of teams,

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Speaker 1: not those two in particular? Just I noticed now as

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Speaker 1: I do, And we'll talk about my pick six column

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Speaker 1: in just a minute. But early in the week, I'm

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Speaker 1: having to identify. Okay, who are some of the favorites,

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Speaker 1: you know, money lines, I just want to lock in,

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Speaker 1: like all right, well I know this team's gonna win,

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Speaker 1: and so I'm looking at a bunch of these. It's like, man,

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Speaker 1: normally I've been picking a few of those touchdown favorites.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, you look at Atlanta and you're like, well,

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Speaker 1: but what if this happens. You look at Philly, what

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Speaker 1: if this happens Buffalo Carolina? Well what if Carolina matches

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Speaker 1: up this way right now? And yeah, you can really

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Speaker 1: find a flaw or a match up, like in a

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Speaker 1: lot of cases, like, okay, Colts Titans, for example, how

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Speaker 1: do the Titans win? I don't know. I don't know

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Speaker 1: how the Titans won because the football is weirdly shaped.

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Speaker 1: Like I can't paint a case for you on that.

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Speaker 1: I might try too later. But many of the games

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Speaker 1: you can sort of close your eyes and imagine and okay,

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Speaker 1: well the Bills aren't very good at this thing, and

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Speaker 1: so the Panthers kind of picked at it, and now

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Speaker 1: it's close, and now look what happened. Later, Like you

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Speaker 1: can imagine how some of these upsets come out. So

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Speaker 1: it's a very tricky week. It's tricky for picking ats.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to cover these tough spreads. We've seen a

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Speaker 1: lot of late comebacks and back door covers. So I

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Speaker 1: had a hard time choosing picks this week. I actually

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Speaker 1: have on today's podcast, no ATS picks, just traditional. I

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Speaker 1: have one for the look ahead. I kind of got

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Speaker 1: creative and so I ended up going with more longer

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Speaker 1: shot angles today. We're like, Okay, if I think this angle,

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Speaker 1: how do I think it more aggressively and find something there?

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Speaker 1: So I think it's a unique week, So I would

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Speaker 1: encourage you to be cautious and either maybe bet slightly

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Speaker 1: smaller units this week with caution, or maybe more aggressive

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Speaker 1: on the longer lines. Probably a little bit of both

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Speaker 1: is what I'll end up doing.

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Speaker 2: Well. Thank god, it is National tight Ends Week, National

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Speaker 2: tight Ends Day, whatever you want to call its, our

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Speaker 2: response DraftKings. I'm sure we'll have a ton of bets

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Speaker 2: and offerings in that area. But before we move on,

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Speaker 2: don't forget to sign up for Action Pro for real

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Speaker 2: time pick alerts from experts like Brandon Anderson, myself, Our

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Speaker 2: entire Action Network team. Plus, you can access our pro

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Speaker 2: projections powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team.

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Speaker 2: Just go to actionnetwork dot com slash pro. Get twenty

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Speaker 2: dollars off the annual price with the promo code pod

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Speaker 2: twenty Pod twenty. Don't miss out on the best bets

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Speaker 2: at the best prices. To visit actionework dot com slash Pro.

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Speaker 2: Use promo code Pod twenty to get twenty dollars off

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Speaker 2: a year of Action Pro. All right, let's get to

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Speaker 2: some best bets.

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Speaker 3: You're sat this your bets bet.

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Speaker 2: So if you want to tell these best bets, just

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Speaker 2: look in the quicklip link in the podcast in video

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Speaker 2: description or go to actionework dot com slash bet now

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Speaker 2: b e t n ow bet now all the bets

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Speaker 2: listed there. Just quick slip links click take you right

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Speaker 2: to sportsbook. All right, let's start with Brandon's pick six,

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Speaker 2: which listen. If you're gonna start a brand new column

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Speaker 2: here at Action number and do something completely different, and

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Speaker 2: you're gonna do it for the first time, maybe like

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Speaker 2: five six weeks into the season, you might as well

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Speaker 2: win the bet to get some attention. Brandon hits a

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Speaker 2: plus six thirty parlay on six money lines this week. Brandon,

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Speaker 2: you're adding some dogs. What are you doing?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's because we got all those big favorites and

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at like all these seven point favorites range.

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Speaker 1: If you pick six of those teams, you're gonna get

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Speaker 1: like a plus three hundred. I don't need a three

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Speaker 1: to one parlay on six different games. I gotta sweat

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Speaker 1: all day long when I can see all the flaws

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Speaker 1: in these teams. So I'm gonna, you know, take a

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Speaker 1: little more risk here. I went with two underdogs this

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Speaker 1: week on the money line. We already did one of

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Speaker 1: them on the Hot Read Sunday Night Raw Raw Mike

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Speaker 1: Tomlins Sunday Night Pittsburgh, and then Dallas against Denver. I'm

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Speaker 1: trying for a third week in a row money line

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Speaker 1: against Denver. What could possibly go wrong? So those are

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Speaker 1: the two underdogs. They're gonna juice our parlay. Then I

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Speaker 1: added a Ravens first half money line, and then Eagles

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Speaker 1: and Bucks and then Monday Night Chiefs to hopefully get

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Speaker 1: us out on a nice easy one on Monday. All

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Speaker 1: that together is about a twenty to one a parlay

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Speaker 1: for this week, so it's a little bit longer odds.

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Speaker 1: We'll see if we can keep is one a streak, Sure,

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Speaker 1: it's a streak. Let's keep the streak going. The extra

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Speaker 1: point from my article on our pick six. We'll get

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Speaker 1: to that a little bit later on in the Ravens game.

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Speaker 1: And uh yeah, I think today's picks kind of reflect

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Speaker 1: what I did with the pick six of like, all right,

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Speaker 1: let's get a little more aggressive, but then maybe a

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Speaker 1: little less aggressive on unit size. So I think if

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Speaker 1: you are listening or watching, if you're a parlay a

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Speaker 1: better I know we love to throw some of the

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Speaker 1: long shots together.

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Speaker 4: I think this is a.

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Speaker 1: Great episode for that, like pick three or four long

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Speaker 1: shots on here. But I haven't mentioned tight ends day.

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Speaker 1: I've got seven seven tight end props coming up for you,

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Speaker 1: and just for you, I put them all together into

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Speaker 1: one parlay that has like twenty thousand dollar one odds

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Speaker 1: or something that we will end with with the flourish.

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Speaker 1: So this is a good episode. Just sprinkle some long

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Speaker 1: shots and see what we can find this weekend.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you're gonna hit a six to one shot,

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Speaker 2: you might as well hit a twenty to one. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's keep going here to where first bet and You're right,

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Speaker 2: Like everything you were kind of looking at in that

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Speaker 2: column kind of gets sprinkled into a lot of these bets.

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Speaker 2: So we're gonna start with Denver and Dallas. What are

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Speaker 2: you doing in this game?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: So I like Dallas. I do like the spread or

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Speaker 1: the money line like we had in that bet. But

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Speaker 1: what I like you when better is the team total.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go Cowboys over twenty three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Keep fitting the Broncos. I'm gonna keep getting my heart broken,

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Speaker 1: I guess on all these comebacks, but guess what, I

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Speaker 1: don't need to win to win this bet. I can

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Speaker 1: just score some points, and that is exactly why I'm

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Speaker 1: on the team total. End escalator here. You know, our

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Speaker 1: reads against Denver have been right. This is the right

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Speaker 1: team to be fading right now. We're not hitting the

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Speaker 1: money line on those, but we're still profiting as we're

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Speaker 1: getting the ats. I don't mind the ats. Three and

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Speaker 1: a half here, I think should not be about the

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Speaker 1: key number. This feels very much like one of those

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Speaker 1: last team with the ball win situations. Unfortunately, Denver's got

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Speaker 1: a horseshow up there, but it has the ball last

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Speaker 1: and he'ps winning all these games, and I think, honestly,

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Speaker 1: if Dallas is going to win, I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to score twenty four and probably a bunch more

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Speaker 1: than that anyway, So I like this angle a lot better.

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Speaker 1: We can avoid the Dallas defense whatsoever, and I am

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Speaker 1: happy to bet against Denver, not necessarily just the offense

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Speaker 1: that's been a lot of the fay the last couple weeks.

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Speaker 1: This specifically is fading what I think is kind of

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Speaker 1: a fraudulent defense. I think this is a front running

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Speaker 1: at Denver defense that is exposed when they face top offenses.

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Speaker 1: They've only faced this year one top offense. It's the

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Speaker 1: top offense Indianapolis. They gave up four hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: three yards in that game and twenty nine points should

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Speaker 1: have been more.

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Speaker 4: To the Colts got a little unlucky. If you go

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Speaker 4: back in.

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Speaker 1: The last calendar year, six times the Broncos have faced

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Speaker 1: a top twelve devose, they're averaging twenty nine point two

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Speaker 1: points a game allowed. In those contests, they've allowed a thirty,

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Speaker 1: a thirty one, a thirty four, a forty one. This

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Speaker 1: defense consistently gets cooked against top quarterbacks. They're great when

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Speaker 1: they're ahead, and they can just release Nick Benito on

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Speaker 1: all pass rushers and vance Joseph's guys come after you.

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Speaker 4: But they can of get.

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Speaker 1: Cooked a little bit by top teams. Dak is cooking

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Speaker 1: right now. Cedia is back, and I think Denver's bad

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Speaker 1: offense is kind of suppressing the total. So you take

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Speaker 1: the total, you add in Denver being favored, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's buying us some value on the Dallas team.

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Speaker 1: Total is just matt at that point. Over twenty three

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Speaker 1: and a half, Dallas is five and two to that number.

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Speaker 1: They're averaging the season almost four hundred yards a game offensively.

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Speaker 1: Four games they've scored thirty seven points or more. So

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Speaker 1: let's take the escalator over twenty three and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's minus one zho five at our sponsored DraftKings. Why

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Speaker 1: take the one fifty money line, but I can play

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Speaker 1: one fifty four over twenty six and a half. Just

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Speaker 1: get the points. I don't care if you go with

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Speaker 1: the points Dallas. You can lose, you can win whatever.

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Speaker 1: And then thirty points or more plus two to ninety Dallas.

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Speaker 1: Our Denver has allowed that in four of those six

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Speaker 1: games against a top offense. And then last part of

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Speaker 1: the escalators thirty five or more plus five seventy five.

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Speaker 1: One last note, one more edge. Here we're in Denver

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Speaker 1: with my guy Brandon Aubrey. Can I bet on like

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Speaker 1: a seventy yard field goal this week or like, I

308
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Speaker 1: don't know, I want to see what those props are.

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Speaker 1: If you find some crazy brand Aubrey props, hit me

310
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Speaker 1: on Twitter and we'll see if we can add those in.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's worth noting maybe in a halftime

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Speaker 1: or something, this could be like a free three or

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Speaker 1: six points that teams should not get that we just

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Speaker 1: get to add to our team total here. So I

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Speaker 1: love Dallas. This is my favorite spot of the week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that Aubrey notes probably noteworthy considering you're gonna be

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Speaker 2: watching this game and anytime Dallas heads the ball and

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Speaker 2: the first half and the game like those situations, you're

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Speaker 2: just gonna be able to get points from almost anywhere.

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Speaker 5: Uh.

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Speaker 2: The one I love the most here is the fact

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Speaker 2: that Dallas is just playing so well, Like I think

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Speaker 2: the streak could come to an end, like four straight overs,

324
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Speaker 2: four straight games without a turnover. Lots of things going

325
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Speaker 2: really right in Dallas. But one thing that doesn't have

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Speaker 2: to change the offense. So I will say one thing,

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Speaker 2: if they're on the twenty three points, it is nice

328
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Speaker 2: to score a touchdown and win three bets at twenty

329
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Speaker 2: three and a half, twenty six and a half, and

330
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Speaker 2: twenty nine and a half. So that could be fun

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Speaker 2: if it happens. All right, This is a very similar

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Speaker 2: bet in a very similar situation, except for the fact

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Speaker 2: that the spreads seventeen points different. But Colts Titans, I mean,

334
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Speaker 2: how do you even consider playing this game? Because I

335
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Speaker 2: feel like what you're gonna tell me right now is

336
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Speaker 2: a scary proposition, but you're doing it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna play the Colts. I'm gonna play the

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Speaker 1: team total here similar to Dallas. The total is at

339
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Speaker 1: thirty and a half, So yeah, I similarly to what

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Speaker 1: you said, I go through every game every week and

341
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Speaker 1: I'm like, Okay, what are my angles?

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Speaker 4: Can I try the spread? Is there a total? What's

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Speaker 4: the popp angle?

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Speaker 1: I like, this is the exact game that I usually

345
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Speaker 1: A'm just like, ah, yeah, nothing, this game stinks, So

346
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Speaker 1: we don't need to get anything on this, Like, you

347
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Speaker 1: don't want to be sitting on a minus fourteen and

348
00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:09,880
Speaker 1: a half ticket and the Colts are up sixteen with

349
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Speaker 1: the Titans of the ball in the four minutes left.

350
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Speaker 1: You're like, what am I doing with my life here?

351
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Speaker 1: But I think the Colts should score. So you can't

352
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Speaker 1: get two teams going more opposite directions. Obviously, we talked

353
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Speaker 1: with the Colts at the top. Number one offense by

354
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Speaker 1: DVA offense are passing and rushing.

355
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Speaker 4: Number one.

356
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Speaker 1: The Titans offense, by the way, is dead last thirty second.

357
00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,800
Speaker 1: The defense isn't quite so bad, except they might be now.

358
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:36,040
Speaker 1: They just lost Jeffrey Simmons, who, despite being on the Titans,

359
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 1: has been getting DPOY conversation that's so good he's playing

360
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:43,120
Speaker 1: for them. He's out now. Cornerback Jerry Snead is out.

361
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,880
Speaker 1: I think this defense is gonna really crater here. Jonathan Taylor,

362
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:50,400
Speaker 1: by the way, is minus four hundred for a touchdown

363
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Speaker 1: in this game. We keep playing touchdown running backs against

364
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Speaker 1: the Titans. I don't know, it seems free, but minus

365
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Speaker 1: four hundred is not going to grab my attention. Titans

366
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Speaker 1: defense is allowing twenty seven and a half points a

367
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Speaker 1: game that includes forty one.

368
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Speaker 4: To the Colts.

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Speaker 1: They played the Colts already in Week three. They lost

370
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Speaker 1: forty one to twenty Colts offense. I think this number

371
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:14,240
Speaker 1: just barely gives us value. Colts have scored twenty nine

372
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Speaker 1: or more points in six of their seven games, So

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Speaker 1: twenty nine, thirty one, thirty three, thirty eight, forty and

374
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Speaker 1: forty one. Our number is thirty and a half. So

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Speaker 1: we need to get to thirty one points. Minus one

376
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Speaker 1: oh nine and just a little bit on escalator is

377
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Speaker 1: not a lot of value here because the number is

378
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Speaker 1: so high already. Thirty five points is plus one eighty

379
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,240
Speaker 1: forty points. The highest I could see there was a

380
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:40,120
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five. But one more thing to add on.

381
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Speaker 1: And I'm gonna do this like three or four times

382
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Speaker 1: on this podcast, even though it feels counterintuitive, because again.

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Speaker 4: It's a weird a week.

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Speaker 1: I staid at the top, what's the avenue for the

385
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Speaker 1: Titans to win? Well, here's the stat for you. Since

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, if you just blind play any NFL money

387
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Speaker 1: line underdog that's anywhere between plus seven fifty and plus

388
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Speaker 1: one thousand, The Titans are plus nine hundred right now.

389
00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,160
Speaker 1: Those teams are four and fourteen. That's real bad. That's

390
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 1: like a number one pick in the draft. But it's

391
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 1: also one hundred and six percent ROI. And here's the problem.

392
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Speaker 1: Until the Week three game, this rivalry is at eight

393
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Speaker 1: straight single digit games, just keeping it close, and I

394
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Speaker 1: think the number is inflated. I have Colts minus eleven

395
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 1: and a half, so that doesn't seem like much value.

396
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 1: By using our spread calculator into into money line at

397
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 1: Action Network, you can find that on our app, minus

398
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 1: eleven and a half would be a plus four to

399
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 1: fifty money line. We're getting a nine to one money align.

400
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,159
Speaker 1: That's double the payout of what we should be getting

401
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 1: of what I think this game for your price hast

402
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 1: So do I think the Titans are gonna win?

403
00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:43,119
Speaker 2: No?

404
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 1: Do I think they have any way. I don't even

405
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,080
Speaker 1: know how they would win. I don't know what happened.

406
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,920
Speaker 1: And even though I'm playing all the team totals and look,

407
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 1: the Titans are't gonna win forty two to forty one,

408
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,720
Speaker 1: We're not gonna hit everything together. But I am going

409
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 1: to play just a little bit on the nine to

410
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 1: one Titans money line because history says when the number

411
00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,920
Speaker 1: gets that long in the NFL, you just take a shot.

412
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Speaker 2: I don't hate your shot. I you know, every week

413
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 2: I say to myself, how can Daniel Jones lose this game?

414
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 2: And he does the absolute complete opposite from what I've

415
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Speaker 2: known him to do throughout the years. So I completely

416
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Speaker 2: understand trying to take two extremes here. I think it's

417
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:23,639
Speaker 2: probably the right way to go. I just looked at

418
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 2: DraftKings to try to see if there was some last

419
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 2: touchdown props. They don't look like they're up yet, but

420
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Speaker 2: one thing I would be interested in is like a

421
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 2: mir Abdullah last touchdown, or I see a mirror Abdullah

422
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 2: second half touchdown at it looks like five point fifty

423
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:41,159
Speaker 2: and six to one, so maybe that's something of interest

424
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:42,800
Speaker 2: the other angle, and I just I was gonna use

425
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Speaker 2: his stat off the top, but I'll go here with it.

426
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Speaker 2: So Colts have scored two hundred and thirty two points

427
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Speaker 2: lead the NFL right now through seven games. The last

428
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Speaker 2: time we had a team with a win total below

429
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 2: eight score that many points through seven games was nineteen

430
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Speaker 2: ninety nine, and that in that sense, I'm sorry. The

431
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 2: other angle, there would be a team with over five hundred.

432
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 2: It happened in two thousand and two with the Chiefs.

433
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Speaker 2: They were three and four, but ninety nine happened twice

434
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 2: at the Rams and Washington that year, so right now,

435
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 2: in terms of where we projected Indy and what they're

436
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:19,119
Speaker 2: doing almost unprecedented. So at this rate, I think the

437
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 2: idea of doing an outlier kind of makes sense because

438
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,919
Speaker 2: they're either going to win this game by a ridiculous

439
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:26,959
Speaker 2: margin or you're going to turn around and it's going

440
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 2: to be close on the fourth quarter and you're probably

441
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:30,480
Speaker 2: gonna be happy you just had to ticket.

442
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 1: So well, And that's a little bit of what I'm

443
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: doing when I kind of go both sides on some

444
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 1: of these. It's like, all right, well, if I'm wrong,

445
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 1: if the Colts don't score their thirty this week for

446
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: whatever reason, I think that they will. But if they don't,

447
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,200
Speaker 1: something went wrong. Maybe something's Daniel Jones, like get good

448
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 1: on Daniel Jones that I can't come up with the

449
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 1: reason of why the Colts would lose, and it was him.

450
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 1: It's him staring at me, like that's the reason. Probably

451
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 1: if they don't, did they only score like twenty? All right, well,

452
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: maybe that's why the Titans win. Maybe they found a

453
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 1: Fluke pick six or something along the way and that's

454
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,680
Speaker 1: the reason. So I think I think some of These

455
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 1: are like almost the opposite of an escalator, like, well,

456
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 1: what if my bet is wrong? How could I kind

457
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,200
Speaker 1: of cover my tracks a little bit and maybe kind

458
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 1: of get it back.

459
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 2: Anyways, Yeah, Jonathan Taylor, probably a huge game. That's probably

460
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,360
Speaker 2: one of the ways Indianapolis rolls away. But we'll see

461
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: what happens. All right, New England and Cleveland is the

462
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 2: center of this game. But you are looking more towards

463
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 2: the running back position. What are you doing from the front? Mark?

464
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 1: I am a rare under for me on the podcast.

465
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:28,960
Speaker 1: I don't take a lot of prop unders. I know

466
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 1: those are the most profitable ways. I just don't find

467
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 1: them a lot of fun. I like looking for overs.

468
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: But we took Ramondre Stevenson last week for a touchdown.

469
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 1: This week, I'm going to fade him under seventeen and

470
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 1: a half rushing attempts against the Browns. So the Patriots

471
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 1: are playing really well. We know that they have played

472
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 1: though a very very soft schedule. Their offense is faced

473
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 1: the second easiest schedule so far by DVOA. Here's some

474
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 1: of the teams they've played. The Raiders, the Dolphins, the Panthers,

475
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 1: the Saints, the Titans. Like man they have had it

476
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,679
Speaker 1: easy so far. Probably their toughest opponent defensively is the Bills.

477
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 1: The Bills, who he saw the Ravens score like a

478
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: thousand points on on the opener. That's the toughest defense

479
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 1: New England has faced, who they beat by the way.

480
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 1: Cleveland is easily the toughest test that they will have

481
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 1: face so far. And we'll see Drake may looking great,

482
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: but we'll see how he looks with an offensive line

483
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 1: against Miles Garrett and all these guys and Browns have

484
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 1: the number one run defense by DVA, so that brings

485
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: to this angle. Patriots have not run the ball well

486
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,400
Speaker 1: all season at all. Their second to last in run

487
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 1: offense Dvoway. They're great passing and maybe they'll pass here.

488
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 1: I'm not playing the spread. I don't like either side here,

489
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 1: but I think this is a fade for remondra and

490
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: just not getting a lot of volume on the runs.

491
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 1: He did go over the seventeen and a half. Last week.

492
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: He had eighteen carries, so he went over by the hawk.

493
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 1: Travian Henderson had only two. Probably that split won't be

494
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 1: quite as pronounced usually, but outside of last week, Henderson

495
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: not Henderson Stevenson had thirteen carries or less every other

496
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: game on the season, average eight and a half. Our

497
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:09,560
Speaker 1: pro projection has thirteen carries for Stevenson. That's about what

498
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 1: it looks like for Brown's defense too. Week one, they

499
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 1: had twenty one carries from Chase Brown forty three yards.

500
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 4: Not great.

501
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,679
Speaker 1: Ever since then, teams were like, hey, what if we

502
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 1: don't run twenty times against the Browns? And the lead

503
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 1: running back has had eleven to sixteen carries every time

504
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: going under this number all the times average thirteen carries

505
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: a game, So I think thirteen is about right. Seventeen

506
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 1: and a half is way too high. I'm just not

507
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 1: sure the Patriots are going to give me chances to

508
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: play with the lead and try to run the clock

509
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: out here. So Ramondre Stevenson under seventeen and a half carries.

510
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 2: Nothing to really say except I have no faith and

511
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 2: for able to give Trevion Henderson any carries. So the carries,

512
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 2: hopefully not to Ramondre Stevenson. But that guy is just

513
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 2: living in a doghouse right now, so we will see

514
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 2: what happens there. All right, Let's keep rolling here. Baltimore

515
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 2: and the Bears a lot of people have a different

516
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 2: opinion on this game. The favorites, they're split. We talked

517
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 2: about it earlier on the pod. I just I feel

518
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: like there's like a different sentiment based off of what

519
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 2: you think Baltimore is right now and a lot of

520
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: their players coming back from health. So how are you

521
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 2: dispersing this game?

522
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know Stakey usually has a good pulse for

523
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 1: where the Ravens are at. He's heavy on them for

524
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: this game. Assuming health. It looks like they're getting a

525
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: lot healthier. Lamar Jackson is limited practicing. I don't know

526
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 1: if we're to be encouraged by that. I almost feel discouraged,

527
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: Like you just had a bye week, you haven't played

528
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 1: for a few weeks, so how limited are we? Like

529
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 1: is this a smoke screen? What's the smoke screen?

530
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 5: Like?

531
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: Are you gonna scare me with Cooper Rush coming into

532
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 1: the game here or something like?

533
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 4: I don't really get it.

534
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: So it is very much a kitchen sing spot for

535
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 1: the Ravens, like they've got to have this. You're one

536
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: in a five, you're coming off the bye week, You're

537
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: probably never gonna be healthier than at this spot right here.

538
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 1: And it's not just Lamar like he's gonna get all

539
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: the attention. But I'm gonna look at Patrick Ricard, the

540
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 1: fullback has not played all season. And look howt Derrick

541
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 1: Henry has struggled to run this season. I think getting

542
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 1: recarved back blocking, clearing out those huge holes that Henry

543
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 1: can hit. And you know, once he hits the hole,

544
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: if you haven't got a hand on him yet, like

545
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: you're you're trucked after that, likes it's not happening for

546
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: you's flying right through you. Ronnie Stanley back on the line.

547
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 1: Isaiah likely has been back, but should be full speed now,

548
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: more heavy tight end sets. That's Ravens football. That's Derrick

549
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: Henry football. Bears run defense has not been that great

550
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 1: this season. And then defensively, I'm a little less confident

551
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: honestly about the Ravens defensively getting healthy. But cal Hamilton

552
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: is healthy. There was talk before the bye week of

553
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: we're gonna move him around, We're gonna put him in

554
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: the spot. That's just that's zach Or's solution. Whenever things

555
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 1: go wrong with the defense, just put Cayle Hamilton at

556
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: a new position.

557
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 4: He's really good. He'll figure it out.

558
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: We'll fix everything they traded for Alohi Gilman at safety.

559
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: I just think coming out of the by we're going

560
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: to see kind of a new look Ravens right off

561
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: the bat that the Bears haven't had a chance. So

562
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 1: I haven't said the pick yet. I'm gonna go with

563
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 1: Ravens first half. Here it's minus three and a half.

564
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 1: Now it's minus one oh two at DK our sponsor,

565
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 1: so I get near even odds.

566
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 4: I don't mind if you want to wait a little bit.

567
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: Maybe the injury news moves us a little bit, just

568
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 1: enough to get us to two and a half instead

569
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 1: of three and a half, or frankly, maybe Lamar doesn't

570
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: play and then we don't want it anymore.

571
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 4: I want no.

572
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 1: Part if Lamar is out, So you can wait. We're

573
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 1: gonna lose much from three and a half the other direction.

574
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 1: But here's why, first half only Lamar off the bye

575
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: week actually not great two and five ats in his

576
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: career and not great as a three to ten point

577
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 1: home favorite in his career either, only eight twenty and

578
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: a one ats, So I'm skipping the whole game. I

579
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,640
Speaker 1: don't want the back door. I don't trust the defense

580
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: quite enough just yet, and Ben Johnson's offense finding some

581
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: answers late, I don't really want it. So back to

582
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: the first half, Ravens. That's always the play with this team.

583
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: Lamar for his career sick thirty six and two ats

584
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 1: in the first half sixty three percent. And this is

585
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: just a good team. Agnostics spot home favorites seven points

586
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:13,479
Speaker 1: or less after the bye week first half ats fifty

587
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:16,479
Speaker 1: seven percent. It's not a huge number, but that's on

588
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 1: like one hundred and seventy games, and it's a very

589
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 1: tried and true trend. So you like the home rested

590
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 1: team early. It's now or never for the Ravens. If

591
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 1: they come out flat in this game, it's never. So

592
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 1: I have to give them some credit here and then

593
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 1: we'll get out halftime and see what happens from there.

594
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 2: I don't know if there's ever been more pressure on

595
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 2: a team in the first half of the game. I

596
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 2: just the way that this is being built. I mean,

597
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 2: I hear it from Stuckey, I'm here, everyone who is

598
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 2: putting their you know, beans in the bag for Baltimore

599
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 2: this week. It's just I am more fascinated to watch

600
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: how this game starts, you know, especially if there's no, Lamar,

601
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 2: you throw everything out the window. But if they're going

602
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: to suit him up, especially after limited and limited, like,

603
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 2: when are we gonna actually see him ready to I'm

604
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 2: more thinking he's not gonna play at this point because

605
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 2: we just haven't seen him at full speed ready to roll,

606
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 2: and we're getting super close to Sunday. So I just

607
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 2: I don't know what the line's gonna be. But this

608
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 2: one is just a little bit odd to me. I

609
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 2: will say this, I don't want to look, you know,

610
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 2: for like a stat purposes. I don't want to look

611
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 2: exactly at the number because I feel like it's a

612
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 2: little weird. But the one I do feel good with

613
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 2: with your bet, Lamar is thirty two to twelve first

614
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 2: half money line team's above five hundred. So basically, if

615
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 2: you think Chicago is who they are, he usually shows

616
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 2: up in this spot. And I put this in my

617
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 2: article pretty good against coaches and situations that haven't seen

618
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 2: him before. And on that first half money line above

619
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 2: five hundred, they're eight and one versus the NFC, which

620
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 2: makes sense the team usually hasn't seen him as well,

621
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: So I feel like that spot does lean here. One

622
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 2: other angle you kind of have on this game, you

623
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 2: have a bunch of futures in terms of Baltimore. Now,

624
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 2: listen if and this is kind of the point, right, like,

625
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 2: if Baltimore wins this game, there is a buck ton

626
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: of value to be had in a ton of different

627
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: things from Baltimore's standpoint. If they lose, it's over. But

628
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: this mostly over, truthfully, But this is the time to

629
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 2: buy in. So how are you buying into Baltimore?

630
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this does feel like a swing spot. The

631
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: problem is, I think a lot of the obvious high

632
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: end future is like maybe a Lamar MVP ticket or

633
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 1: a super Bowl or an AFC ticket. I don't feel

634
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,719
Speaker 1: like we're getting a lot of value there the division ticket.

635
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: Like it feels like books have also been agreeing for weeks,

636
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 1: like yeah, yeah, yeah, Baltimore is fine, They're going to

637
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 1: be fine, They're gonna be right in this all the way.

638
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 1: I don't really see a lot of the postseason type

639
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: futures having a lot of value. What I do like

640
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 1: our couple of stat futures. So these were from my

641
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: extra point in the pick six article. You can kind

642
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: of read the whole case there. Ravens so far that

643
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 1: face the number one number one toughest schedule by offense

644
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 1: and by defense, so it's not just all the injuries

645
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: like they have had a murderer's row schedule going forward.

646
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 1: They faced the twenty seventh schedule offensively and the thirty

647
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: first defensive schedule, so they have a super super soft

648
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: schedule going forward, especially comparatively. I think it sets up

649
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: well for stats.

650
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 4: For the team. I don't know if they can.

651
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 1: They remind me of a setup similar to the Bengals

652
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: last year, where it's like, oh man, you'd hate to

653
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: have to face the Bengals in the playoffs. Well, turns

654
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 1: out you didn't because the first month counts also. But

655
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow sure put up a lot of stats down

656
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 1: the stretch, and I think maybe Henry and Lamark do that.

657
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: So talked about getting the full back back and the

658
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: tackle and the heavy sets tight ends. Even with the

659
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: bad start for Henry pretty quiet, He's still on pace

660
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: for twelve hundred and forty four yards, Like that's not

661
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 1: a bad number. He's still top ten yards per game,

662
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: and his career has been the same thing year after year.

663
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: He's slow in September, he ramps up in the fall.

664
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: He's a beast in December and January. He's always his

665
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: best when the wears down, and I think he's gonna

666
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: be set up well. And I'm more arrested here to

667
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 1: have a big home stretch so you can play twelve

668
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty yards at minus one fifteen. Again, he's

669
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 1: on pace for that already, even with a bad start.

670
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: Fifteen hundred yards is just over three to one. He's

671
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 1: at that four of the last five healthy seasons. And

672
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: I think we talked about Jonathan Taylor, who probably needed

673
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 1: Taylor injury a little bit, but I think fourteen to

674
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 1: one for Derek Henry to be the rushing yards leader

675
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: could be in play. We're gonna need to catch up

676
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 1: to Taylor, but if it's not Taylor, I think the

677
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: field gets pretty wide open and Henry's gonna have some

678
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: monster games coming up here. I like you and better.

679
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson passing touchdowns so far, He's only played four games,

680
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: but he has ten passing touchdowns.

681
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 4: That's pretty good so far.

682
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: If you pace that out for the whole season, even

683
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 1: with his missed games, he's on pace for thirty eight touchdowns.

684
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 1: Our leader, Matt Stafford has played all season. He's on

685
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 1: pace for forty one. So Lamar is so good passing

686
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,600
Speaker 1: touchdown so far that even with his missed time, he's

687
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 1: still on paced only be three off the lead at

688
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: the end of the season. And both of these guys,

689
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 1: we kind of get a sneaky bit of value with

690
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: the early buy because it looks like they're further down

691
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: the stat chart than they actually are. Lamar has had

692
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: an outlier touchdown rate twice already before, including last year,

693
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:20,959
Speaker 1: so that's where he's at now. I think he can

694
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 1: do it again if you want to do the stairs

695
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 1: up again. Thirty touchdowns passing is plus one oh five,

696
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 1: thirty five is plus four to twenty. I prefer to

697
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 1: go for the kill on this one because we know

698
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: Lamar could get hurt again or maybe just not even

699
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: be healthy now. I don't necessarily want the median outcomes.

700
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 1: If he's gonna be good, if he's gonna play like

701
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 1: MVP ball.

702
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 4: I don't know if he can win.

703
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 1: MVP with five losses already, but he could get a

704
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: lot of stats like Joe Burrow last year thirty to

705
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: one at DraftKings to lead the league in passing touchdowns.

706
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 1: He's right there already and I think he could really

707
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 1: get there if the Ravens make a big push.

708
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, the funny thing is about the MVP thing you

709
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 2: discussed before. That is, I mean the ten touchdowns and

710
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 2: one interception just sets him up for Like, if Baltimore

711
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 2: happened to win a few games and he went on

712
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 2: a run here where he didn't throw some picks and

713
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 2: threw some touchdowns, the numbers would look ridiculous, especially when

714
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 2: he's starting this, you know campaign now with a passer

715
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: rating of one hundred and thirty. Like it just from here,

716
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 2: it's gonna get ridiculous. I like the Lamar bet better.

717
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 2: You have less hurdles to get to where you want

718
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 2: to go with Henry. Not only are you one hundred

719
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 2: and fifty yards back from the guy behind Taylor, but

720
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 2: then you need something to happen to Taylor.

721
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think I like the Lamar thirty to

722
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 1: one leader better. I think I like the Henry median

723
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: outcomes better for him. So if you want to just

724
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 1: do parts of those, I think Henry to get a

725
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 1: positive outcome Lamar to get the huge outcome would be

726
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 1: the way to go.

727
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 2: Like that a lot. All right, let's keep rolling here,

728
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 2: Falcons and Dolphins is the game? You have a prop

729
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 2: in this game? Now? The first thing, any I think,

730
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 2: all of us who handicap these games, let's go game

731
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 2: by game and then you know, look for the angles

732
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: and kind of go from there. The second you get

733
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: to Atlanta Miami, do you think of Miami's rush defense

734
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 2: and you think of Bijon and this guy? So how

735
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 2: are you kind of dealing with Algier and Bijon and

736
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 2: attacking this Miami rush deep?

737
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take Algier here. I'm gonna kind of

738
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 1: pivot from Bijeon because I think the second that the

739
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 1: books got to this game, they also were thinking we'd

740
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 1: be thinking Jean and they priced it in and accordingly,

741
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 1: we've got some crazy rushing props out there. Taylor's over

742
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: one hundred yards this week. Just the over under Jean

743
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 1: is not too far behind. So I guess first fall

744
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: in this game. We talked about this at the top.

745
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 1: We're sure the Falcons should be a touchdown favorite, like

746
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: against anybody right now. This team is really hot and cold,

747
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: be able to scored over twenty four once all season.

748
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: Take that game out. They're averaging fifteen points a game

749
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 1: and their other games, so I'm not sure that they

750
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,879
Speaker 1: are reliable enough that we should feel confident in them.

751
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 1: Miami has a huge special team's advantage here as well.

752
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 1: I make this game closer to three points by the numbers. Now,

753
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 1: that's gross because the Dolphins feel terrible, and it's like,

754
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: are you gonna fire your coach already? What's happening right now?

755
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 1: Nobody wants the Dolphins right now. But by that number,

756
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 1: it should be like plus one forty one to fifty

757
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,439
Speaker 1: for the Dolphins. It's plus three fifty instead. So I'm

758
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 1: going to pre offset my bet with the Dolphins plus

759
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: three point fifty on the money line. But if Elina

760
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 1: does win the game, I think it's not just Bijon.

761
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 1: I think it's Tyler Algiers. So I want him if

762
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 1: you'll get his splits in wins and losses. Since the

763
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: start of last season, in losses twelve of them, he

764
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:43,400
Speaker 1: averages just under six carries a game, twenty eight and

765
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 1: a half yards a game, and eleven wins. That goes

766
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: up to eleven point three. Rush is a game for

767
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,879
Speaker 1: forty six yards. Jean's the guy. But Jean's gonna break

768
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 1: the game open. He's gonna run for a seventy year touchdown,

769
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 1: do all the crazy awesome stuff that I like watching.

770
00:35:58,360 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 4: Algier is the guy they close game.

771
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 1: They just pound into oblivion the opposing defense. In those

772
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: eleven wins with the Falcons last two seasons, thirty two

773
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 1: rushing yards are more and eight of the eleven so

774
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,399
Speaker 1: that's kind of what the floor has been for him

775
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 1: and a win. Only four times he's had that in

776
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 1: a loss, so very good. Kind of bell Weather of

777
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 1: how do the team do? Check Algier's stats? So over

778
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half rushing yards, so forty yards

779
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 1: or more that's the bet for Tyler l.

780
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 5: Gier.

781
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go too crazy high on the yards

782
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 1: because frankly, I don't even think Tyler Algier is that

783
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 1: good of a running back. Like, he doesn't break a

784
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 1: lot of tackles. It's mostly just volume up the middle.

785
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,919
Speaker 1: So we'll go fifty yards plus one fifty eight. He's

786
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: had that in five of the eleven wins for Atlanta.

787
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:46,800
Speaker 1: So this is to me trying to approximate a Falcon's

788
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: money line. But the money line is like minus four

789
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 1: hundred and we're hopefully getting some positive odds here and

790
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 1: then three of those games, out of the eleven wins,

791
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,879
Speaker 1: he does fifteen carries or more all in wins by

792
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 1: seven or more points. So if we think Atlanta wins

793
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 1: easily here, which is the thing we think we think

794
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: about the game, fifteen carries is plus eight to fifty.

795
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: I think that number is a little bit too high

796
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,320
Speaker 1: for what the script usually is in a Falcons blowout,

797
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 1: sort of when so Algier forty yards and fifty yards

798
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 1: fifteen carries a plus eight fifty. But in case I'm

799
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 1: wrong and the Falcons don't win, Dolphins plus three fifty

800
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 1: money online, I'm doing both sides again because I don't

801
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: really know what's going to happen here, so I kind

802
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: of want the long angles on both of them.

803
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're doing the right thing here, because

804
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 2: I would never turn around to myself and say I

805
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,280
Speaker 2: want the points with Miami or I want the points

806
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 2: with Tennessee, because it's just the chance of blowout based

807
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 2: off of what we've seen so far just feels so

808
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 2: much higher. So like having the outlier on the other

809
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 2: side at least is like a poll before fall lever

810
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 2: seems pretty decent to me. I mean, from Miami's defensive standpoint,

811
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 2: which is kind of what I alluded to off the top.

812
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 2: They've allowed thirty four to ten plus yard rushes most

813
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 2: in the NFL, and to me, the one that's going

814
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 2: to lead Algier to getting to where he wants to

815
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 2: go three yards after contact for rush for Miami, which

816
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,919
Speaker 2: is tied with Buffalo for actually the most of the NFL,

817
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 2: because Buffalo can't stop anything on the ground either, So

818
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 2: I like the look here. The other interesting thing is

819
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 2: San Francisco and Atlanta the other night. I feel like

820
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 2: if you watch that game, you get a lot of

821
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 2: shots at Bijon on the sideline and Algier being the

822
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 2: running back in the game, so they do kind of

823
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 2: go back and forth more than probably Bijon owners would

824
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 2: like to see. All Right, last game here before we

825
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,399
Speaker 2: get to our lightning round Houston and San Francisco. Now

826
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 2: there is a ton of injuries to kind of be

827
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: keeping tactive to try to figure out how to handicap

828
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 2: this game, and the line has kind of flipped one

829
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 2: and a half either way. We're still waiting, I believe

830
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 2: on official status on Nico Collins, but I've been fading

831
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 2: San Francisco basically since they put the roster together, So

832
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,439
Speaker 2: you tell me what we're doing here. Yeah.

833
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 1: I like to back the Texans here, but there's there's

834
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 1: so many injuries both ways, it's really hard to know

835
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 1: where to go. Like like you said, I don't know

836
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 1: if we're gonna see Nico. We don't know which Niners quarterback.

837
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,399
Speaker 1: We don't know which receivers. We do know they're gonna

838
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 1: be missing a lot of defensive guys. So San Francisco

839
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: I now have and my roster matrix as the number

840
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: thirty one defense the rest of the way, it's ahead

841
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 1: of Dallas and that's it. Nick Bosa out, Fred Warner out.

842
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: They're missing other guys, They're missing one of their top corners,

843
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,480
Speaker 1: a couple defensive linemen. This was a defense that I

844
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: was a little bit high on before this season. I

845
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 1: had them in my top ten. But it was a

846
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: leap of faith, not a lot of talent on the defense.

847
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 1: It was a better on Robert Sala who I think

848
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: Frankly has done a great job with the talent. But

849
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 1: they're just running out of guys right now, and I

850
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 1: think the defense could get a little bit exposed here.

851
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,879
Speaker 1: Texans offense, we know has not been good, but they

852
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:55,320
Speaker 1: have scored twice and won games against the Titans against

853
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 1: the Ravens, two teams that are bottom of the league defensively.

854
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: So if that's what the Niners are now, could this

855
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 1: be a game where the Texans. I don't know if

856
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:04,760
Speaker 1: it's a get right. I don't know if that offense

857
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 1: is going to get right anymore, but maybe for one

858
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: game they cat's get some points.

859
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,760
Speaker 4: Also, Tamiko Ryans, he knows KENL. Shanahan really well.

860
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: He knows how to defend against the Chanhan system from

861
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 1: the time together there, So I think that sets up

862
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: well for Houston's defense. And then there was one step

863
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 1: that really caught my eye here. So you can look

864
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 1: at kind of Pythagorean expectations just kind of a fancy

865
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 1: word for what are the underlying metrics telling us of

866
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: how good a team should be, And they tell us

867
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 1: that Houston's pretty good, better than some of the over

868
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 1: numbers tell us even against Seattle. We just watched that game.

869
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 1: It was ugly, it was gross. Houston's offense terrible against

870
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,879
Speaker 1: a great defense, but Houston's defense was pretty good. They're

871
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,919
Speaker 1: hanging in these games. They're playing canaball right. So from

872
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 1: week five forward teams with the Pythagorean plus or minus

873
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 1: of thirty five percent or better. This has not happened

874
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: very often. Those teams are seventeen and six against the

875
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 1: spread seventy four percent. This is Houston, by the way,

876
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 1: covering by nine point three points a game. And now

877
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: talk about crazy small samples. I know I'm the king

878
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: of yelling about small samples. But within that only seven

879
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 1: times has that team been the favorite. Those teams are

880
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 1: seven to zero ats by twenty two points a game.

881
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 1: And what's crazy is all of those games came in October,

882
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,760
Speaker 1: which kind of makes sense. It's when you're just played

883
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:28,439
Speaker 1: enough to be a little bit underrated and we haven't

884
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 1: quite caught on yet. There's wins by fifteen, twenty four,

885
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: thirty four, thirty eight, and forty nine points from these

886
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: teams like Houston. They're like, ah, man, you're kind of good,

887
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 1: but you sure mess up a lot of stuff. So

888
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:44,879
Speaker 1: look at the two teams. Over the last calendar year.

889
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: The Niners have ten losses. Six of the ten are

890
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 1: by double digits, average margin of defeat thirteen points a game.

891
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,919
Speaker 1: Last calendary, Houston only eight wins four of the eight

892
00:41:56,960 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: half of them by double digits. Average margin of victory

893
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 1: sixteen points a game when it goes Houston's direction, when

894
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 1: it goes against San franz direction, it really goes even.

895
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 1: In the Texans two wins this year, they won by

896
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 1: twenty six and by thirty four. So I'm not taking

897
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 1: Houston minus one and a half plus one and a half.

898
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: Whoever one and a half is out there, I'm not

899
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 1: doing it. It's not worth it. Minus one ten too

900
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 1: many weird injuries for me to mess with it. I

901
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 1: am going to play it more aggressively with two alternate

902
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 1: Texans spreads. Texans minus nine and a half, so ten

903
00:42:33,680 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 1: point double dig win is plus three twenty and Texans

904
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 1: twenty point winner better minus nineteen and a half twelve

905
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: to one. It sounds crazy, but I think the Niners

906
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 1: are due for a collapse down the stretch. Here I

907
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 1: talked about them for missing the playoffs plus three thirty five.

908
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 1: I think they are ready to kind of get exposed

909
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 1: in a game against a good team, And I think

910
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:58,879
Speaker 1: maybe this is kind of a sneakily good team still

911
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 1: at least on one side of the ball, and could

912
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 1: really expose the Niners of things go their way, So

913
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 1: Texans by double digits plus three twenty and by twenty

914
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,359
Speaker 1: or more points twelve to one. In case we're right,

915
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 1: we help, We'll be really right on the Texans this week.

916
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 2: I don't say this frequently, but this is brilliant because

917
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 2: I was kind of on the favorite July. We were

918
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 2: talking about San Francisco and Houston, and we were just

919
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 2: everyone was into the fact that Houston was the right

920
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 2: side we wanted to be on. But it feels dirty

921
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 2: having to lay the one and a half without Nico.

922
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,839
Speaker 2: With all, this is the way to probably buy in

923
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 2: when like, yeah, you might lose the bet, but if

924
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 2: it's a close game, you were kind of wrong in

925
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 2: the first place, because San Francisco probably shouldn't have been

926
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 2: in that game in that situation based off the defense

927
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 2: and the way they played against Houston. I'm sorry against Atlanta,

928
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,120
Speaker 2: like you almost feel like they're due for the letdown.

929
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 2: Here's the stat. It's crazy. Since Christmas is twenty twenty three,

930
00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers are one and thirteen against the

931
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 2: spread after a straight up win. Like having to actually

932
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 2: look at that, and then you look at this season.

933
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 2: I mean, none of the games have been you know,

934
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 2: blowouts by any mean, but last few games after their wins,

935
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 2: they've come down to earth Jacksonville, Arizona. Like, some of

936
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 2: these games been really close. I think this is kind

937
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 2: of the demarcation point where something could happen here. Also,

938
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 2: this one's crazy. Since the beginning of twenty twenty, Niners

939
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 2: have played sixteen games at one pm Eastern on the

940
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 2: East Coast, Okay Est or CST. They've been favored in

941
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:36,959
Speaker 2: all sixteen games they come across the country. The forty

942
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 2: nine ers have a great roster, a really talented offense,

943
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 2: rock party like. That's kind of the way they've been.

944
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,360
Speaker 2: This is not the same team. The market's kind of

945
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 2: telling you that. So I'm with you on Houston. I

946
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 2: like this one a lot.

947
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it'll be a fun game, and hopefully,

948
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: hopefully it's not a fun game. Hopefully it's a terrible

949
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 1: game that we have to bury down our list on

950
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 1: Sunday night because the Texans just took.

951
00:44:57,800 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 4: Them out behind the woodshot.

952
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, we've gone deep on these games. I'm excited

953
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: for us to finally get into our NFL Hallmark Holiday

954
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 1: National tight Ends Day with our Lightning round.

955
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 4: You're ready to talk some tight ends.

956
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 2: Let's do it. You just you take it on, just

957
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:13,719
Speaker 2: do the whole thing.

958
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:22,360
Speaker 3: See the lightning round last year did this stupid holiday

959
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 3: that Every year I get to red zone at like

960
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 3: two pm and I'm like, oh yeah, this again.

961
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: Why does someone tell me until Sunday I'm supposed to

962
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 1: be betting all these This year, I'm ready. I'm ready

963
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 1: with tight ends. So if you like fake holidays, I

964
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 1: got some tight ends for you last year in the

965
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: early slate, eight games, ten tight end touchdowns.

966
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 4: Where were the bets? Where were the bets? I need

967
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 4: to know this is coming. So this year we're ready.

968
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 1: Only Trey McBride bye week, Rock Boers bye week sucks

969
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 1: this year anyway, Sam Laporta bye week. Travis Kelcey on

970
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,879
Speaker 1: Monday is tight ends day, not tight ends a week.

971
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: I don't think that counts necessarily.

972
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: He counts, he counts in.

973
00:45:58,239 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 1: All right, all right, Well you know we'll get to

974
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 1: that maybe on our Sunday night preview for Monday. So

975
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 1: first game, I'm going Packers Steelers Sunday Night football. Look,

976
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,720
Speaker 1: we already last week got from Chris Collinsworth.

977
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 4: National running Backs Day. We made a new holiday.

978
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,879
Speaker 1: Again with McCaffrey, so you know he's gonna be talking

979
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 1: about tight ends week and tight ends Day, tight ends month,

980
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:23,000
Speaker 1: whatever they get to celebrate. You know what's happening Sunday night.

981
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 1: We already did the raw raw hot read on Steelers

982
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 1: money line and ats. It's the Rogers game.

983
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 2: You know.

984
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 1: By the way, last time the Packers won in Pittsburgh

985
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: was nineteen seventy somehow. Man, that's a crazy stat I

986
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:38,480
Speaker 1: think this is the best tight end betting game on

987
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 1: the schedule, So I'm betting the tight end on both teams.

988
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Green bailout top three points per game two

989
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 1: tight ends in fantasy, so this is the spot. So

990
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 1: start with My favorite of all these tight end bets

991
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 1: is Tucker Craft. I think this is a breakout season

992
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 1: for Tucker. He's scored touchdown four of six games already.

993
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:58,839
Speaker 1: He leads the team in touchdowns. He led the team

994
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 1: in touchdowns last year, receiving Pittsburgh top ten most touchdowns.

995
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 1: A lot of tight ends last year and again this

996
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 1: year as well. We already saw a primetime game with

997
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,919
Speaker 1: the Packers Thursday night against Washington. Had a huge game

998
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 1: that game, and our guy scored on tight ends day

999
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 1: last year.

1000
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 4: I think he likes this holiday.

1001
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,719
Speaker 1: Tucker Craft plus one sixty five and if you like

1002
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, I think that's going to play with him

1003
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:25,279
Speaker 1: fourteen to one for that. Now, the flip side is

1004
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 1: a lot trickier because I want a Steelers tight end,

1005
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:29,799
Speaker 1: but Evan, who do I want?

1006
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 4: There's like four dudes on this team to pick between.

1007
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 1: So Packers have allowed the opposing tight end one to

1008
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: put up thirty eight catches, three hundred twenty four yards

1009
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 1: and four scores already in only six games they have

1010
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,319
Speaker 1: allowed six and sixty five and four of them they

1011
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 1: have a lot a tight end touchdown and five of

1012
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 1: the six.

1013
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 4: That's all great.

1014
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh lives in thirteen personnel, three tight ends on the field.

1015
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 1: They've had six tight end touchdowns already. They had four

1016
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:57,280
Speaker 1: last game. But which guy are we supposed to play?

1017
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:00,879
Speaker 1: John news Smith, I think is the guy who's gonna

1018
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 1: play the most snaps. He's usually around like seventy percent.

1019
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 1: I was looking at receptions. He's had three catches or

1020
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 1: more all but one game, but we're at three and

1021
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 1: a half. It's juice to the over. Only three of

1022
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 1: his twenty six targets in the red zone. Pat Fryermouth,

1023
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 1: he's kind of out of the rotation, ish weirdly. Three

1024
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 1: red zone targets Darnell Washington. Now that's a tight end.

1025
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 1: Can't you just hear Chris Collinsworth talking about six seven,

1026
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 1: two sixty five. Gim on, let me tell you about

1027
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 1: National tight ends Day. Darnell Washington, that's our guy. Four

1028
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:36,879
Speaker 1: red zone targets, leads the team for tight ends four

1029
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: of US fourteen. His snapcount has gone from forty ish

1030
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 1: percent the first three games to almost eighty percent the

1031
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 1: last three, and his targets mostly come in the red

1032
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:48,800
Speaker 1: zone because he's like a cheat code. He's a monster

1033
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 1: dude out there that they're just like, hey, post up

1034
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:53,919
Speaker 1: and we'll just throw you a jump ball and try

1035
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 1: to have you catch it. He got a two pointer

1036
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 1: against Seattle earlier this year. He's just that dude. So

1037
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 1: we're hoping, like down to the one or two and

1038
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:03,680
Speaker 1: just aaron throw it up to Darnell and see what

1039
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 1: he can do. So Darnell Washington touchdown plus three seventy five,

1040
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:11,319
Speaker 1: And if we're gonna get crazy, this is just a

1041
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 1: terrible number. Two touchdowns for him is fifty five to one.

1042
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: If we're gonna get the one, we may as well

1043
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 1: play the second. And if you want just the Sunday

1044
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 1: night touchdown for tight end, Craft and Darnell together is

1045
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 1: plus lew and fifty if you want both of them

1046
00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 1: to get two touchdowns. I told you're gonna have some fun.

1047
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: Parlays eight hundred and thirty nine to one for both

1048
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 1: dudes to get two touchdowns. What a way to end

1049
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 1: National tight Ends Day together.

1050
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:40,919
Speaker 2: There's just no way we accurately predict which Steelers tight

1051
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 2: end has a big day. I feel like DraftKings should

1052
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,360
Speaker 2: offer like any Steelers tight end never a touchdown, or

1053
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 2: like do something really fun there because picking between these ends,

1054
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 2: it is Sunday Night football, so this is gonna get

1055
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 2: a ton of attention. And I feel like the tight

1056
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 2: end is like a great play in this game with

1057
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:01,280
Speaker 2: both of the quarterbacks as well on one side obviously,

1058
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 2: but the other side, Rogers does love his tight end.

1059
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:05,719
Speaker 2: The way I was going to bet this with the

1060
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 2: tight ends with you is I was going to do

1061
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:09,839
Speaker 2: a fun exact de box well. What do I mean

1062
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 2: by exact the box Well? I want to do first

1063
00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:15,800
Speaker 2: touchdown anytime touchdown with Darnell and Kraft. But I just

1064
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 2: want both sides, so I'll take people first touchdown in

1065
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 2: anytime touchdown exact de box. I like, just see how

1066
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 2: it goes there. All right, let's keep rolling here. You

1067
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 2: were looking at tight ends, and yeah, just to be clear,

1068
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 2: National tight Ends, Day Lightning Round. This is all about

1069
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 2: the titles. Enjoy enjoy it. Next game, Jets, Bengals, what

1070
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 2: are you doing here with I mean, there's basically two

1071
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 2: tight ends.

1072
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:42,319
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, that's pretty much pretty much the plan.

1073
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 1: So Jets tight ends. Sorry, Jets, Bengals tight ends. Sure

1074
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,319
Speaker 1: they're in there too. Bengals are six and a half

1075
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 1: my farrest were sure like one game now the Bengals

1076
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 1: are good again. I think again, similar to some of

1077
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 1: these other longer teams, I think some value on the Jets.

1078
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:59,000
Speaker 1: I think this should be like a field goal spread.

1079
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna nibble plus two sixty on the Jets.

1080
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,560
Speaker 1: I just think some of these long underdogs are gonna

1081
00:51:03,560 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 1: get home this week, So Jets money line. But I

1082
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:09,200
Speaker 1: think for the daytime, this is your other best tight

1083
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 1: end game. So these teams have allowed the Bengals nine

1084
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 1: touchdowns to tight ends, and the Jets six that is

1085
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 1: first and second most in the NFL. Nine is a

1086
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 1: lot like we're in mid October. We keep betting against

1087
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 1: tight ends against Carolina. They give up eleven last season

1088
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 1: the whole season. Bengals have giving up nine already. So

1089
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 1: we're gonna play both tight ends in this game. We'll

1090
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 1: start with the Bengals tight end no offense. I think

1091
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 1: is my maybe second favorite of the day, behind Tucker

1092
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 1: Craft because there's no one else there anymore. Mikeasicki's on

1093
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:43,279
Speaker 1: Ir Tanner, Hudson's and concussion protocol. We know the Jets

1094
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 1: are going to at least try to cover Chase and

1095
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 1: Ta I'm not sure how they will do, especially if

1096
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:50,880
Speaker 1: sauces out, but Fans seems to be playing well with Flakka.

1097
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 1: We know how Flakka loves his tight end, right. We

1098
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 1: always play tight ends with the Browns with whoever all

1099
00:51:57,719 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 1: the Flacco teams bet the tight ends. Last game for Fan,

1100
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 1: four catches forty four yards in a score is best

1101
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:07,520
Speaker 1: of the season, so plus three to twenty five for

1102
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:11,279
Speaker 1: a touchdown. And then Mason Taylor, that's the name you

1103
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:14,719
Speaker 1: want on the Jets rookie tight end no touchdown yet

1104
00:52:14,719 --> 00:52:16,720
Speaker 1: so we're gonna We're gonna get the guy his first

1105
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:20,319
Speaker 1: career touchdown. That Bengals in the last three games have

1106
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 1: allowed seven tight end touchdowns already. They allowed ten last year.

1107
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 1: That was second most the number one fantasy points allowed

1108
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 1: per game. And with the Jets, Garrett Wilson is out,

1109
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:34,360
Speaker 1: so Mason Taylor is like, maybe there go to receiving

1110
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 1: target right now, we hopefully get not justin fields that

1111
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:41,319
Speaker 1: can hurt Taylor to Taylor, Tyrod to Mason. Let's get

1112
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:45,280
Speaker 1: a touchdown on the board plus two sixty. I will say,

1113
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: just as we hit record, I saw Mason Taylor pop

1114
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 1: up on the injury reports. Maybe keep an eye on that.

1115
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:53,320
Speaker 1: But if you want those two together in just this game,

1116
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 1: Mason Taylor and Noah font f Noafanta, whatever whatever you

1117
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 1: want to call him, no and the end z plus

1118
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 1: fourteen thirty on a touchdown parlay for those two, Yeah,

1119
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 1: I was.

1120
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:06,480
Speaker 2: Gonna say, I like fan better here. I think it's

1121
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 2: the obvious reasons. I mean, the Jets even getting into

1122
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:10,800
Speaker 2: the end zone feels like a long shot in itself

1123
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 2: at this point. But I think the fun bet on

1124
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:15,719
Speaker 2: Mason Taylor, and I don't see this up yet put

1125
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 2: first team touchdown, Like, I don't really want to mess

1126
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 2: with anything that happens on the Bengals side of this,

1127
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 2: But when the Jets get down there, that's the ticket.

1128
00:53:24,239 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 2: I think that would be fun to have in a

1129
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:27,520
Speaker 2: team that can't figure out how to get in the

1130
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:30,360
Speaker 2: end zone. Maybe they find him, so the first.

1131
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 1: Team touchdown might be only team touchdown with the Jets.

1132
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:34,720
Speaker 1: You might have a wide berth on that one.

1133
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:37,359
Speaker 2: Well, it's funny you say that. Maybe you do want

1134
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 2: to put a few bucks on first and last as

1135
00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:42,360
Speaker 2: well if you're metting with Mason Taylor, because you can

1136
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:44,720
Speaker 2: can probably get a really high ticket there on anybody,

1137
00:53:44,719 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 2: if the Jets, or if there's you know, one touchdown

1138
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,320
Speaker 2: of the game, or you know, you know how that works.

1139
00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rolling here, Giants Eagles, Which Dan

1140
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:55,359
Speaker 2: tidend you're going with? Here?

1141
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 1: THEO Johnson is my guy. So THEO Johnson has been

1142
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,839
Speaker 1: Jackson darts guy too. First three games this season before

1143
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 1: Dart went in six catches forty nine yards combined in

1144
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 1: three games. Now Jackson Darts playing Theo's this guy three

1145
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:10,600
Speaker 1: and a half catches a game, thirty six yards, six

1146
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 1: targets a game and four starts with Jackson Dart four touchdowns. Now,

1147
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 1: one of those was that kind of fluky tip drill

1148
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:19,879
Speaker 1: against Denver last week, but still he's been a clear

1149
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:22,879
Speaker 1: go to guy. He's over half of Jackson Darts touchdowns

1150
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:26,680
Speaker 1: and nine of his twenty three targets this season have

1151
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 1: been in the red zone. So this is a guy

1152
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:31,440
Speaker 1: ever was excited about before the season for the Giants.

1153
00:54:31,440 --> 00:54:33,799
Speaker 1: Now I think we're getting some value at plus three

1154
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 1: to fifty because why is this guy priced so high

1155
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 1: when he's scoring so often. Well, they're playing the Eagles.

1156
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 1: He's scored in three of the four Jackson Dart games.

1157
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:44,320
Speaker 1: The one he didn't was the one they.

1158
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:44,760
Speaker 4: Beat the Eagles.

1159
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 1: Because the Eagles are really really good against tight ends.

1160
00:54:47,200 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 1: So maybe that's not the angle here, but it's tight

1161
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 1: end's day and we liked theo he's been playing.

1162
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,280
Speaker 4: Well, it's plus three to fifty. It's a little dart

1163
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 4: throw if you.

1164
00:54:55,920 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 2: Will, unbelievable. Yes, Philly is number one versus his tight

1165
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 2: ends in DV away. I was going to mention that,

1166
00:55:03,280 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 2: but honestly, that means absolutely nothing when you're looking for

1167
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 2: one target in the red zone. You're not asking him

1168
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 2: to do anything across the field or you know, anything

1169
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:13,200
Speaker 2: of that nature, so I like it. The other thing

1170
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:15,480
Speaker 2: I'll say is, you know you've been going ones and

1171
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 2: twos with some of these bets. THEO Johnson thirty nine

1172
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 2: to one for two does seem kind of fun when

1173
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:24,800
Speaker 2: he's a target for darts. I was also looking at Bellinger,

1174
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 2: but I don't know, I prefer THEO Johnson. He's just

1175
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 2: getting a lot more looks, so I completely get it.

1176
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 2: All right. This is probably the most fun thing you

1177
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 2: can talk about right now, because it feels like he's

1178
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 2: gonna this guy you're talking about now is gonna score

1179
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:40,319
Speaker 2: a touchdown and everyone's gonna be like, oh, yeah, he's

1180
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:43,399
Speaker 2: a tight end. Who do you like in the Saints game?

1181
00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 1: Gotta be Taysom Hill. Taysom Hill against the Saints, Sorry,

1182
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill for the Saints. I think I put that

1183
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:51,400
Speaker 1: on in the spreadsheet backward.

1184
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 4: Taysom Hill.

1185
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 1: Whoever's playing for, he's playing for. Our producer David Payne

1186
00:55:56,000 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 1: from BYU loves Taysom Hill. Let's get him in the

1187
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:02,480
Speaker 1: end zone here. I really wanted Tampa Bay here, but man,

1188
00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 1: the injuries on this game is just everywhere everywhere on

1189
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:08,360
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is injured too much to mess with. But

1190
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 1: I think the tight end touchdown works Box have allowed

1191
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 1: tied for fourth most tight end touchdowns we've played them

1192
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,160
Speaker 1: because they're bad against short and over the middle, that's

1193
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:20,760
Speaker 1: tight end area. Taysum's never had a rushing touchdown against

1194
00:56:20,800 --> 00:56:23,560
Speaker 1: the Bucks despite all the games every year, but he

1195
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 1: does catch them against them two of the last three games.

1196
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:29,759
Speaker 1: He's kind a touchdown and look, most tight ends, we

1197
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:32,799
Speaker 1: don't get two ways to score a touchdown. Taysom Hill

1198
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:35,560
Speaker 1: is the cheat code. In fact, we get three ways,

1199
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:37,600
Speaker 1: except not really. He could throw one in, but we

1200
00:56:37,640 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 1: don't get credit for that one. We need you to

1201
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:42,200
Speaker 1: not throw. Taysom run or catch, that's all you get

1202
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 1: to do. He has scored a touchdown in nine of

1203
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 1: the last twenty one games. That's forty three percent. That

1204
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,440
Speaker 1: would imply plus one thirty three. We're getting plus two

1205
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 1: to fifty on a touchdown. It's not a huge number,

1206
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 1: but that's about two x the payout Kendre Miller is out.

1207
00:56:57,040 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 1: That frees up about a third of their red zone carries.

1208
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 1: Maybe that's just a Taysom Hill power run as well,

1209
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 1: and the key thing with Taysum you said this when

1210
00:57:05,600 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 1: doing some one and two touchdowns. When it's a Taysom game,

1211
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:11,960
Speaker 1: it's usually really a Taysom Hill game. If it's a

1212
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:14,959
Speaker 1: good matchup, it's a great matchup. So nine of twenty

1213
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 1: one games with a touchdown but multiple touchdowns, and three

1214
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 1: of those nine including a three touchdown game, the Bucks

1215
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 1: have already allowed two multi touchdown games to a tight

1216
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:26,960
Speaker 1: end the season and two last season. So this one

1217
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 1: is not a sprinkle. This is a mandatory if you're

1218
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 1: playing Taysom Hill plus two fifty, but half your bet,

1219
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:35,800
Speaker 1: half of it not a sprinkle on two touchdowns twenty

1220
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:37,360
Speaker 1: two to one with Taysom.

1221
00:57:37,400 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 4: If you're going to go in, you got to go

1222
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 4: all in.

1223
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:41,160
Speaker 1: And frankly, I probably should check the price for three

1224
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 1: just in case, because that's my own medicine right there.

1225
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 2: Two games left here, So Bill's Panthers, I feel like

1226
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 2: for a tight end game is kind of intriguing because,

1227
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh, Buffalo has a million options they can go to.

1228
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:58,080
Speaker 2: So how do you want to divvy this one up? Man?

1229
00:57:58,280 --> 00:58:00,640
Speaker 1: I kind of like this matchup for the Panther. I

1230
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 1: really wanted to get there on a Panthers pick. The

1231
00:58:03,200 --> 00:58:05,000
Speaker 1: Bills are off the bye week, though they're off a

1232
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 1: two game losing streak, like they really have to get

1233
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 1: this one. But here's the matchup. The Bills are the

1234
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 1: number thirty two run defense by DVA, and that's what

1235
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:13,720
Speaker 1: the Panthers want to do, is just pound you in

1236
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 1: the run game. And Carolina's run defense has been really

1237
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:19,440
Speaker 1: good this season, and the Bills want to run the football,

1238
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:20,040
Speaker 1: so I think they.

1239
00:58:19,920 --> 00:58:20,560
Speaker 4: Could hang in.

1240
00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:23,360
Speaker 1: We gave the stat last week, first eight games home

1241
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 1: dogs of seven or more nineteen two and a one

1242
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:30,120
Speaker 1: ats now ninety five percent cover rate, almost ten points

1243
00:58:30,160 --> 00:58:33,120
Speaker 1: a game. So like some of the other games, I'm

1244
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 1: gonna play the Panthers money line plus three twenty. I'm

1245
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 1: gonna play a little bit on it. But I have

1246
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:40,800
Speaker 1: one last tight end for you here. It's not the

1247
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 1: guy you think. Nope, it's not the other guy either.

1248
00:58:43,320 --> 00:58:46,720
Speaker 1: His name is Jackson Hawes. He's the third tight end

1249
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:49,840
Speaker 1: for Buffalo. It looks like Kekaid probably will play this week.

1250
00:58:50,360 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: And look, we've been betting tight ends against the Panthers

1251
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 1: all year. They gave up eleven touchdowns last year, they

1252
00:58:55,760 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: given up four already this year to names such as

1253
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 1: Foster More Bensonat Nate Adkins, Noah Gray Pay, Durham Hunter

1254
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 1: Long These are blocking tight ends. These are the guys

1255
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 1: down the depth chart. Jackson Hawes is the number two

1256
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:13,439
Speaker 1: PFF graded tight end and he is an elite run

1257
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:16,800
Speaker 1: pass blocker. He's not a pass catcher. He's got four

1258
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:20,240
Speaker 1: targets in the season. He's caught them all and three

1259
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:21,600
Speaker 1: of the four ben in the red zone and one

1260
00:59:21,640 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 1: of them was for a touchdown. Dawson Knox we talked

1261
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:26,240
Speaker 1: about last week. He played eighty one percent of the

1262
00:59:26,280 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 1: snaps because Kinkaid was out. He only got one catch anyways,

1263
00:59:30,200 --> 00:59:32,480
Speaker 1: So I think the value is down the board with

1264
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 1: Jackson Hawes. I needed one super tight end long shot

1265
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 1: plus six twenty five for our guy, and frankly that

1266
00:59:40,200 --> 00:59:42,640
Speaker 1: could get a little bit longer if Kincaid is ruled in.

1267
00:59:42,760 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 1: So I don't mind if you want to wait, and

1268
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:47,960
Speaker 1: then the coup de gras evan if you play all

1269
00:59:48,120 --> 00:59:52,360
Speaker 1: seven tight ends together for one touchdown each. As I

1270
00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 1: put it in just now before we hit record, it's

1271
00:59:55,400 --> 00:59:58,520
Speaker 1: twenty one thousand to five hundred and seventy five to one.

1272
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 1: So I'll put a buck on that if you want,

1273
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:02,560
Speaker 1: And let's see if we can just like call our

1274
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 1: shot on National tight Ends Day and hit all seven

1275
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:06,760
Speaker 1: of them somehow.

1276
01:00:06,920 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 2: All seven tight ends. Yeah, that partly I'm not even

1277
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 2: going to try to say that number, but I encourage

1278
01:00:12,440 --> 01:00:14,360
Speaker 2: you to click on it and put your dollar on it,

1279
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:17,160
Speaker 2: because that's gonna be a fun show if that one hits.

1280
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:18,760
Speaker 2: The only other tight end I was looking at in

1281
01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 2: Buffalo Carolina, So Jatavian Sanders is coming back, should be

1282
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:26,680
Speaker 2: in this game, which I think is making Tommy Trimble's

1283
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 2: number a little bit higher than it should be. And

1284
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 2: I think I like Dalton to go there. He's seven

1285
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 2: to one, so if you want to have some fun,

1286
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 2: the seven to one with his haws is sixty to

1287
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,560
Speaker 2: one in terms of that game, So that might be

1288
01:00:38,560 --> 01:00:41,440
Speaker 2: something you want to sprinkle on there. But that's the fun.

1289
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:45,400
Speaker 2: That is our tight end section. Brandon gave his seven

1290
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 2: tight ends and a few picks there. Now we are

1291
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 2: going to look ahead to week nine. Let's talk ahead,

1292
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:55,479
Speaker 2: skim a shot. How about next week?

1293
01:00:56,000 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 4: I got my mindset.

1294
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:05,640
Speaker 1: Next week, No Thursday, We're going to Sunday night Seahawks

1295
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:08,840
Speaker 1: at Commanders. Give me Seattle minus two and a half.

1296
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 1: So this week we got the right side of the

1297
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:12,680
Speaker 1: key number. Hopefully we're getting the right side next week

1298
01:01:12,720 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 1: as well. Seattle's not bye week. Washington plays Monday Night.

1299
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to talk about that game on Sunday.

1300
01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 1: But Washington is like a twelve point underdog right now.

1301
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:24,200
Speaker 1: They're probably gonna get demolished by the Chiefs on a

1302
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:27,200
Speaker 1: national audience Monday night game. So I think this line

1303
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:30,800
Speaker 1: could easily get past the key number right now. With

1304
01:01:30,880 --> 01:01:33,720
Speaker 1: all the Washington injuries, I make this Seattle seven and

1305
01:01:33,760 --> 01:01:35,400
Speaker 1: a half, so not even close to two and a

1306
01:01:35,400 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 1: half now. Right now, it's not totally fair. Jane Daniels

1307
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 1: might play, We'll see. Hamstrings are not usually a one

1308
01:01:41,520 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 1: week injury, So maybe we get him, but we get

1309
01:01:44,320 --> 01:01:47,000
Speaker 1: a lesser version of him. Maybe he tries to play

1310
01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:50,000
Speaker 1: but doesn't finish the game. He's done multiple leg injuries now,

1311
01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:52,440
Speaker 1: and all three receivers are still hurt. It looks like

1312
01:01:52,440 --> 01:01:54,760
Speaker 1: a couple of them are practicing now. But I think

1313
01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 1: this ends up somewhere in the middle of my projection

1314
01:01:57,720 --> 01:02:00,560
Speaker 1: versus the number, maybe like a four or five. I

1315
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:02,000
Speaker 1: don't know if it quite gets that high, but that's

1316
01:02:02,040 --> 01:02:04,880
Speaker 1: where my numbers will have. I have Washington twenty second

1317
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 1: in my power ratings. I've sayed all top five.

1318
01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:08,040
Speaker 4: And this is a really good.

1319
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:10,080
Speaker 1: Football team that we keep playing week after a week,

1320
01:02:10,240 --> 01:02:11,680
Speaker 1: and we get to play them this week because they're

1321
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:13,280
Speaker 1: on by so I had to find a different spot

1322
01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 1: to play Seattle. I think they shut down Washington's run game,

1323
01:02:17,480 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 1: and I think Seattle can pass on this team as well.

1324
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:22,600
Speaker 1: So Seattle minus two and a half below the key number,

1325
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:24,960
Speaker 1: and hopefully by then we'll be rich with all of

1326
01:02:24,960 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 1: our tight ends money and just be coasting into Week

1327
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:30,480
Speaker 1: nine and man week nine crazy halfway through the football season.

1328
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:33,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, a winner and some CLV kind of all you

1329
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 2: can ask for on a Thursday. All right, that'll do it.

1330
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:39,080
Speaker 2: Here on the Action Hour Podcast where our NFL Week

1331
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:42,920
Speaker 2: eight Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings. If you want

1332
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 2: instant notifications to when action experts track their bets, go

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01:02:46,680 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 2: to actionowork dot com, slash Pro use a promo code

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01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 2: pod twenty Pod twenty for twenty dollars off a year

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01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 2: of Action Pro, And if you haven't yet, check out

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01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:59,959
Speaker 2: our new AI quick slip bot on X just tag

1337
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:03,919
Speaker 2: Playbook at playbook and tell it to grab whatever bets

1338
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:07,040
Speaker 2: you're looking for and it'll create a quicksup link for

1339
01:03:07,120 --> 01:03:09,760
Speaker 2: you in a matter of seconds. And again, if you

1340
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:11,880
Speaker 2: want to tail some of the bets we gave out today,

1341
01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:13,680
Speaker 2: make sure to look for the quicksup link in the

1342
01:03:13,720 --> 01:03:16,959
Speaker 2: podcast and video description or go to actionnower dot com

1343
01:03:16,960 --> 01:03:20,320
Speaker 2: slash bet now, b et now, bet now. We will

1344
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:24,040
Speaker 2: be back Sunday night for our NFL recap show after

1345
01:03:24,160 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 2: Sunday Night football that'll be live on Action Network's YouTube page.

1346
01:03:28,080 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 2: Thank you for.

1347
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:31,200
Speaker 5: Listening, enjoy the s late good luck with all of

1348
01:03:31,200 --> 01:03:41,640
Speaker 5: your bets this weekend.

1349
01:03:47,640 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1350
01:03:52,200 --> 01:03:55,000
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1351
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:58,160
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler