1 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:13,960 Speaker 2: Better than Most, Better than Most, Better than Most. 3 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, presented by Bett MGM. 4 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 3: I'm your host, Mike Calbarys, and today we have a 5 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 3: very special episode. In its time, The Action Network has 6 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 3: released more than five thousand total podcasts, but we've never 7 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 3: had an opportunity to do an episode quite like this 8 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 3: one until now. So grab your berets, toast your bagatts, 9 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 3: and say bonjour to our betting preview of the twenty 10 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:42,240 Speaker 3: twenty four Summer Olympics in Paris. And for anyone listening 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 3: who hasn't got themselves into a patriotic gambling frenzy yet, 12 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 3: there's still time. The Olympics opening ceremony is live on Friday, 13 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 3: July twenty sixth on NBC. Now here's how today's Olympics 14 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,319 Speaker 3: betting preview is going to work. I'll be joined by 15 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 3: just a ton of Action Network contributors, each chosen for 16 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 3: their acumen around specific sports. We're gonna have this conveyor 17 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 3: belt of experts headed your way, So this is going 18 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 3: to be a lot of fun to dig into. We're 19 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 3: going to cover as many sports as we can, as 20 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,839 Speaker 3: quickly as we can We're going to go sport by sport, 21 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 3: one at a time. We're going to bring experts onto 22 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 3: the show, sometimes solo, sometimes in pairs, and they're going 23 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 3: to do their best to give us the absolute best 24 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 3: bets from every specific event, and when they're done, we'll 25 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 3: say goodbye to them and move on to the next 26 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 3: one in the line. So if you want to hear 27 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 3: in order of events that we're covering today, just check 28 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 3: out the episode description below. We'll have the list of 29 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 3: sports in order in podcast episode description, along with the 30 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,919 Speaker 3: time markers and the experts who spoke in each section, 31 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 3: and every time we change events, it's going to be 32 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 3: a little helpful ding. So when you hear that ding, 33 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 3: we're moving on to the next thing. Final note before 34 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 3: we dive in. We will cover picks for men's and 35 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 3: women's basketball at the end of the episode. But if 36 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 3: you want our complete Olympic basketball coverage, please check out 37 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 3: Action Networks two basketball podcasts, that's Buckets and Buckets WNBA. 38 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 3: They're going to do a super deep dive into the 39 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 3: Olympic coops all going to be there for you on Buckets. 40 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 3: All right, let's get started. First, we're going to welcome 41 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 3: Evan Abrams, Action Network Director of Research and Media, say hello. 42 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 4: Evan, what's going on? Mike? 43 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 3: And we're also joined by Calvin Wetzel, very well respected 44 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 3: sports gambler specializing in niche sports, a darling of the 45 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 3: Action Network Discord Channel and the host of the popular 46 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 3: betting podcast bet She Wins. How you doing, Calvin? 47 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: Hey, I'm good. 48 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 3: Good to be on with you guys. All right, let's 49 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 3: get right into it. We have you two guys here. 50 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 3: I know we're going to get into a lot of sports, 51 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 3: so we're going to start the episode right here with 52 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,679 Speaker 3: Evan giving out his first pick. We're going to cover 53 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 3: total medals across the entire Olympic Games. Evan, please take 54 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 3: it away. 55 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 4: Thank you. Mike. 56 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 5: I'll start off by saying this, These props are available, 57 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 5: and not just metals. 58 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 4: We're talking about each of the. 59 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 5: Events, from basketball to field hockey to water polo, across 60 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 5: all different books, so please shop. And I say this 61 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 5: even more so than like an NFL Sunday, where you 62 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 5: know you might find six and a half and seven. 63 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 4: These are very different crossbooks. So if I say a 64 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 4: line and it's. 65 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 5: Gone, or anyone does in this pod, we apologize but 66 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 5: check it out and please shop. And I will go 67 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 5: through these relatively quickly with a little bit of information. 68 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 5: But I'll start with the three medal counts I like 69 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 5: the most, and they're all unders off the top here, 70 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 5: but I like Netherlands under sixteen and a half golds. 71 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 5: So they're an up and coming country in terms of 72 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 5: the Olympics, and they're probably gonna do much better than 73 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 5: they have in their past. Twelve is their most in 74 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 5: their history. Happened in two thousand. They had ten in Tokyo, 75 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 5: in twenty twenty eight in Brazil, six in London, seven 76 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 5: in Beision. You kind of get the point. I think 77 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 5: they're gonna go at twelve or higher. I think they're 78 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 5: gonna break a record. I just think sixteen and a 79 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 5: half is very aggressive, so please try to find that number. Okay, 80 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 5: Next one, Germany. This one's a really funny one. For 81 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 5: one reason. The German Olympics have just gone kind of 82 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 5: down the ladder over the last few years. So I'm 83 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 5: taking under ten and a half golds, and ten and 84 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 5: a half is important because Germany's just not die and 85 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 5: all the events that they have been in the past, 86 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 5: now they've had double digit goals in every Olympics since 87 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 5: nineteen ninety two and even before that with East and 88 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 5: West Germany. 89 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 4: Basically ten or more in everyone. 90 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 5: But if you go recent ten in Tokyo eleven in London, 91 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 5: it's really coming down versus where it was. So I'm 92 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 5: gonna go under ten and a half and again just 93 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 5: a lack of domination in single sports. So I think 94 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 5: they will get medals, but getting up to that eleven 95 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 5: mark is going to be a little difficult. 96 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 4: Last one I'm gonna like on the under is Japan. 97 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 5: So this is a real shopping situation because I took 98 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 5: fifteen and a half and now I only see thirteen 99 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 5: and a half and some fourteens in the. 100 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 4: Market, which is probably closer to right. 101 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 5: So they broke their record in Tokyo, they did really 102 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 5: an amazing job, obviously in their home country, and now 103 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 5: this is a bit of a different situation coming to Paris. 104 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 5: So in my basically they had about twenty seven last 105 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 5: time out. I think there's a chance they go down 106 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 5: to about twelve, maybe thirteen, but there's a chance for 107 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 5: eleven in that area. So to me, Tokyo, I'm sorry, 108 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 5: Japan under would be how I would look, the only 109 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:08,239 Speaker 5: two others I wanted to talk about would be France. 110 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 5: I really did want to go over twenty four and 111 00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 5: a half home country. To me, I also see twenty 112 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 5: six and a half, some twenty seven and a halfs 113 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 5: in the market, So the twenty four and a half, 114 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 5: the rogue twenty four and a half was out there, 115 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 5: so I did like it. But Golds were ten, ten, eleven, 116 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 5: seven eleven, that's their previous summer Olympics, so this would 117 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 5: be a massive jump. But they're projected to be in 118 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 5: twenty four different sports, most athletes ever for them, So 119 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 5: to me, I think an over there at twenty four 120 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 5: and a half small bet might be worth it. And 121 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 5: this isn't a bet. I just want to talk about 122 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 5: this for at least ten seconds. Great Britain, everyone taking 123 00:05:48,320 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 5: the under. It was at nineteen and a half now 124 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 5: all the way down to fourteen and a half at 125 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 5: some places twenty two, twenty seven, twenty nine and nineteen 126 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 5: for Golds in. 127 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:01,119 Speaker 4: The last four Olympics. But everyone is really on that under. 128 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 5: It's moved way to way too far from me, so 129 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 5: I'm going to pass, but it's worth noting the movement 130 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 5: for betters out there all. 131 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:10,799 Speaker 3: Right, Calvin, I think it's time to get you involved 132 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 3: here as we move on to our next sport, the 133 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 3: women's three on three tournament. Before we get into your picks, 134 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 3: can you tell me a little bit about the structure. 135 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:19,799 Speaker 3: How do you go about trying to meddle in this event? 136 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 6: Yeah, so there are eight teams and it's basically just 137 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 6: one big pool, unlike five on five basketball or a 138 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 6: lot of other events when you have different pools and 139 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:32,039 Speaker 6: you play everyone once round robin. So seven games, top 140 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 6: six make the knockout stage and the top two get 141 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 6: a bye, and then the other four play each other 142 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 6: and then you just have the semis in the finals 143 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 6: from there. 144 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 3: And who do you like in this particular event? 145 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,799 Speaker 6: So Timiose is correctly favored on the women's side here, 146 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 6: but I do like Team Canada to actually take this 147 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 6: down there about plus three fifty plus three hundred and 148 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 6: plus three fifty of most books. So, like Evan said, 149 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 6: shop around. The thing about three on three is that 150 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 6: it is just so vastly different than five on five. 151 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 6: Anyone who's played three on three or watched three on 152 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 6: three knows how fast paced it is. They don't really 153 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 6: have dead balls. It's just all about movement and spacing, 154 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 6: and when you've played in a system like this and 155 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 6: you have experience, it's huge in Canada, even though they 156 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 6: don't have WNBA talent on the roster like Team USA does, 157 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 6: but most players who play in these events, Like when 158 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 6: you look at the Team USA roster, they're playing five 159 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 6: on five for most of the year, and then you 160 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 6: have a big event like this and they play three 161 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 6: on three. But like these WNBA players, they're focused on 162 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 6: five on five. The Canada roster pretty much exclusively plays 163 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 6: three on three all year every year. That's what they've 164 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 6: been doing for like the last five years, and they've 165 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 6: all been developing that chemistry with each other, the familiarity 166 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 6: with the system, including their two best players, who are twins, 167 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 6: Catherine and Michelle Ploof and apparently proof means splash in French, so. 168 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 3: They're really the Splash. 169 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 6: Twins, which I feel like means you have to bet 170 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 6: on them. But they beat Team USA in a preliminary 171 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 6: event in April. Team USA obviously was going to have 172 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 6: Cameron Brink and then she unfortunately tore her acl. They 173 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 6: replaced her with de Erica Handy, who I actually do 174 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 6: think is an upgrade for them. She has played more 175 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 6: three on three. But I still think the Team Canada, 176 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 6: with all the experience that they have in the just 177 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 6: the history that they have in this event, and they've 178 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 6: beaten Team USA before, I think plus three fifty is 179 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 6: just too long for them. 180 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 3: I do know that this is a new events. Is 181 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 3: it basically uniform across the board that all countries are 182 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 3: sending their professionals or is it a mix with collegiate 183 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 3: amateurs from the university ranks. How did these countries go 184 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 3: about putting the teams together. It is a mix. 185 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 6: And it's interesting because in order to qualify you have 186 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 6: to you can't play three on three in the Olympics 187 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,679 Speaker 6: if you haven't played enough three on three and some 188 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,199 Speaker 6: of the other smaller international events. So a lot of 189 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 6: people were saying, like when Camber Brink tore her Aco, oh, 190 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 6: why don't they add Kaylen Clark. You know she didn't 191 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 6: make the five on five Olympic roster. Why don't they 192 00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 6: go at her to three on three? Well, she hasn't 193 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 6: played any three on three official FEBA events, So they 194 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 6: literally couldn't whether they wanted to or not. So the 195 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 6: rosters are kind of constricted by that, which is why, 196 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 6: like you said, some of them are going to have 197 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 6: some less experienced players, but they're all going to be 198 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,559 Speaker 6: at least a little bit experienced in three on three 199 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 6: in that sense, even if they don't have a whole 200 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 6: lot of like major professional five on five experience some 201 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,319 Speaker 6: of the lesser known players. But again, that's why I 202 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 6: think Canada is the favorite. They just have so much 203 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 6: experience in this and then they are true professionals. 204 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 3: We'll stick with you here, Calvin for another events. If 205 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 3: you look at your sports book account and you're just 206 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 3: treading water, you want to finally make some money, why 207 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 3: not dive into women's water polo. Who do you like 208 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 3: in that event? I'm going with Team USA in this one. 209 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 6: It's kind of the casual pick, and they're they're the 210 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 6: favorite obviously, But while they're not nearly as dominated as 211 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 6: say like five on five basketball, who's like minus two 212 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 6: thousand right now, it's just unbettable. They are still the 213 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 6: dominant team in this sport. I'm seeing minus one sixty 214 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 6: seven out there, some books more like minus one eighty 215 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 6: up to minus two hundred, But you still have plenty 216 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 6: of room to play that. Even at that juice, they've 217 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,959 Speaker 6: won the last three Olympics as well as the last 218 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 6: three World Cups, so really six world competitions in a 219 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 6: row at this point, if you want to use it 220 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 6: as a parlay piece, because you don't want to lay 221 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 6: minus one seventy to minus two hundred, I like that 222 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 6: as well, But at the end of the day, until 223 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 6: someone dethrones them, this is still team USA. 224 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 7: Sport. 225 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 3: Evan will welcome you in to another sport that has, 226 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 3: I mean arguably the most dominant team in all of 227 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 3: the Olympics. How are you playing field hockey? Is there 228 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 3: a way to play it with that one juggernaut going 229 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 3: into the Olympics? 230 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, you said it right. So Netherlands is absolutely dominant, 231 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 5: and they're dominant in both men's and women's So since 232 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 5: the women's field and with field hockey started in nineteen 233 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:47,679 Speaker 5: eighty and the Olympics, no country has won. 234 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 4: Both gold on both sides. 235 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 5: So Netherlands kind of looking to do that, and where 236 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 5: my BET's going to come is going to be on 237 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 5: the side we're they're the way more favorite than the 238 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 5: other side. So the Dutch are minus one ninety five 239 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 5: about one to two on the women's side and plus 240 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 5: three fifty on the men's side, but I'll focus on 241 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 5: the women. I just think there's a chance they get 242 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 5: knocked off, so I am going to take a shot here. 243 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,839 Speaker 5: Netherlands one in twenty twenty they actually beat Argentina in 244 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:15,479 Speaker 5: the final three to one, and for twenty twenty four qualification, 245 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 5: it's worth noting Netherlands did win all five matches. They 246 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 5: won by a score of twenty two to two. Absolutely dominant, 247 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 5: like we've talked about. But I'm gonna split my bet 248 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,719 Speaker 5: half unit on Germany and a half unit on Argentina, 249 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 5: which are both countries near the top near Netherlands, and 250 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,119 Speaker 5: they're getting pretty good prices because just how dominant Netherlands 251 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 5: has been and has won gold before. Germany lost to 252 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 5: Belgium in a series of the qualification, but they did 253 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 5: outscore other teams fourteen to zero leading up to beating 254 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 5: England three zero as well, so really really good and 255 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,439 Speaker 5: also scaling up. There were sixth in the twenty twenty Olympics, 256 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 5: fourth in the twenty twenty two World Cup and third 257 00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 5: in qualification. I think there's a chance they get into 258 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 5: the final here, so Germany with a half unit, and 259 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 5: then we talk about Argentina, the bet, who I actually 260 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 5: think is a little sneaky and might be better looking 261 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 5: for twenty twenty payback on the Dutch who won qualification 262 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 5: thirty nine to. 263 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 4: Two and then beating us in the gold medal game 264 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 4: two to one. 265 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 5: So US didn't qualify in twenty twenty in the Olympics 266 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 5: or the twenty twenty twenty World Cup. So they're a 267 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 5: real long shot. But my picks are Germany and Argentina 268 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 5: to try to knock off the Dutch. 269 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 3: So looking at the cards so far, we've got, you know, 270 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 3: total metal counts sports like basketball, getting into water polo, 271 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 3: field hockey which I love, collegiate field hockey, and many 272 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 3: friends who played in college. I'm familiar with the sport. Calvin, 273 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 3: You're gonna have to hold my hand on the next one. 274 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 3: What is handball? How does it work? Maybe it's just 275 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 3: a regional thing in the US. I'm not sure all 276 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 3: of our listeners are familiar with the sport or the 277 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 3: structure of this particular Olympic event. So walk us through 278 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 3: a little bit before giving your pick. 279 00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, honestly, it's just soccer with your hands. I guess 280 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 6: is the easiest way to describe it. I played this 281 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 6: in Pe growing up. I feel like that's where a 282 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 6: lot of people probably learned it. You're just running around 283 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 6: and trying to get the ball into the goal, but 284 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 6: you're using your hands, you're not kicking it. I like 285 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 6: a couple teams in this. France is at plus one 286 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 6: twenty five right now. Obviously they're the best team, and 287 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 6: they're at home. That's more like a coin flip, so 288 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 6: I think plus money is pretty good with them. They 289 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,599 Speaker 6: won the last Olympics, and when you look at international 290 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 6: competition over the last year, year and a half, two years, 291 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 6: even more recently, they've won twenty five of their last 292 00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 6: twenty six matchups. The one loss was to Norway, who 293 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 6: has won twenty two of their last twenty six, and 294 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 6: the four losses were to France. They've played each other 295 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 6: five times, they've only beaten each other, haven't lost to 296 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 6: anyone else in recent competition. So Norway is at plus 297 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 6: two sixty right now. I do think that should be 298 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 6: closer to like plus two hundred. It's gonna be pretty 299 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 6: hard for anyone else to knock off either of these 300 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 6: two teams. They obviously could knock off each other. But 301 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 6: because you're getting plus money on one of them, and 302 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 6: pretty good plus money well into the two hundreds on 303 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 6: the other one, I think it's still worth playing both 304 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 6: of those. 305 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 3: Evan, let's get you in the pool. Who do you 306 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 3: like in the swimming events? 307 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 5: So I only have one event here, and honestly, because 308 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 5: I didn't really do anything from the US's point of view, 309 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 5: I did think this was a good bet to make. 310 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 5: So I'm gonna go at the favorite, the person everyone's 311 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 5: probably gonna betting on anyway, which Gretchen Walsh one hundred 312 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 5: meter butterfly gold medal. 313 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 4: It's about one twenty. 314 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 5: That's what I would look for in the market, between 315 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 5: one minus one twenty and minus one fifteen. But she 316 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 5: just broke the world record for one hundred fly in 317 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,000 Speaker 5: the trials. She's in multiple events, but this is her 318 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 5: best event. So if you're gonna put some money on 319 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 5: the Red, white, and Blue, I think this is the 320 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 5: right event to do it. 321 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 3: Now, one of the highest profile events in all the 322 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 3: Olympics in terms of viewership, in terms of buzz people 323 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 3: certainly you know, working their schedule around so they can 324 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 3: watch it live. Are some of those amazing track and 325 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 3: field events. Do you have any plays or ways to 326 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 3: go about attacking this board because there's opportunities for records 327 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 3: to be broken, there's opportunity these for new superstars to emerge, 328 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 3: and really, if you get to that level at the Olympics, 329 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 3: you's soon become a household name. 330 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 4: Yeah. 331 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 5: So for me, there's four names that will probably make 332 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 5: a name, as I put that in quotes in this Olympics. 333 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 5: The issue is some of those odds are just incredibly 334 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 5: minus and they're just not worth the bet, even when 335 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 5: you talk about value, it's just not there for me. 336 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 5: So mcgloughlin Levern at the four hundred meter hurdles, Grant 337 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 5: Holloway in the one hundred and ten meter hurdles. He 338 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 5: was second in Tokyo two, so a little bit of 339 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 5: motivation there. Massi Russell and one hundred meter hurdles, first 340 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 5: time Olympian twenty four years old. Definitely wanted to look 341 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 5: at and Gabby Thomas in the two hundred meters. 342 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 4: I give you those four names and saying. 343 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 5: I believe some world records are going to be broken 344 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 5: here at the Olympics. I think those are fun bets 345 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 5: if you can find them. I've been looking across the market. 346 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 5: I haven't seen them yet. Maybe it's just a bet 347 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 5: at the bar with your friends, but I would look 348 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 5: around for it. I think that news will be made 349 00:15:56,760 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 5: at the Olympics, and whether that's legal news or legal news, 350 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 5: for whatever reasons you can make. I think some records 351 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 5: could be broken here. So if you can find the props. 352 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 4: Have some fun. 353 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 3: As Evan mentioned at the top, make sure you shop around. 354 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 3: There's going to be a lot of bundling and special 355 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 3: offers and promos from sports books across the country, so 356 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 3: you want to make sure that as you're building your card, 357 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 3: you're taking advantage of some of those generous offerings because 358 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 3: some as you mentioned, some of these Olympic metal prop markets, 359 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 3: they're prohibitively priced, and other ones they're going to try 360 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 3: to find ways to get volume. So it's important to 361 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 3: continue to refresh those apps as we lead up to 362 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 3: the events themselves. All right, Evan, walk me through the 363 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 3: road race and how you go about betting it here 364 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 3: at the Olympics. 365 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 5: So I'm going to give definitely less analysis than I 366 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 5: have before, but I'm going to give you some fun 367 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 5: bets here. Now, this is really tied to the Tour 368 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 5: de France, right, So you've got a few people who 369 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 5: are writing in that actually currently with a small window 370 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 5: after that event ends before the Olympics, so a little 371 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 5: bit of rest and rust goes into this a tiny bit. 372 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 5: But let's start with the road race. Netherlands's Matthew Vanderpole 373 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,120 Speaker 5: is the favorite. He's about three hundred or higher. I'm 374 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,400 Speaker 5: splitting my full unit on a half unit on Vanderpol 375 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 5: who's the favorite. He's young, I think it's worth putting 376 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 5: something there, and the other half unit on Wut van 377 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 5: Ert of Belgium. He's in the Tour de France, but 378 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,440 Speaker 5: he did skip the race in Italy prior to it. 379 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 4: Gives him a little bit of rest. 380 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 5: And the reason I'm actually going to pass on the 381 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:29,119 Speaker 5: person who's winning the Tour de France currently, which is Pogacar, 382 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,880 Speaker 5: who is about six to one, is the fact that 383 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 5: he was in Italy. He is in the tort of France. 384 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 5: I think the grueling stretch is going to get to him. 385 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 5: So that is my bet there, and then I'll give 386 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,719 Speaker 5: you a quick one on the time trial. Joshua Tarling 387 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:45,359 Speaker 5: is the favorite. He's about even I've seen him at 388 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 5: plus one twenty in a few books, and that's the 389 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 5: price I'm really looking for. Because my half unit on Tarling, 390 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 5: who's from Great Burton, he's not in the toart of France. 391 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,120 Speaker 5: He's focusing on the Olympics twenty years old. I think 392 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 5: it's the question of experience versus rust. But he really 393 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 5: is focused on this event, So plus one twenty half unit. 394 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 5: If he wins, you'll be basically get it back from 395 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:09,199 Speaker 5: my next pick, which is remco Evan Pohle, who is 396 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 5: about three to one. I think this guy is worth it, 397 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 5: and I think squeezing out of profit, so I'm passing now. Listen, 398 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 5: there's only three people under twenty five to one in 399 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 5: this event, so I am picking number one and number 400 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 5: three and passing on Filipo Ghana. So I think it's 401 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 5: gonna squeeze out and that's how you're gonna get a 402 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:30,159 Speaker 5: profit here. 403 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:31,280 Speaker 4: So those are my bets. 404 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 3: Calvin. Two questions on women's surfing. I want you to 405 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 3: walk me through which movie that features surfing should I 406 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 3: watch to get myself pumped up? And then who are 407 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 3: we backing to take home the gold in this event? Oh, 408 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 3: Surfing movies. 409 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 6: You're putting me on the spot, the one with the 410 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,360 Speaker 6: girl who gets loses her arm, Soul Surfer. 411 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 3: That's it. I had point break chamber just in case 412 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 3: those opportunities to watch some surfing. 413 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 7: There. 414 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 6: You mentioned off the top of the pod the best 415 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 6: She Wins podcast that I do. If anyone listens to 416 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 6: that or follows on TikTok, you saw we got Vehine 417 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 6: Fierro at plus forty five hundred. We got Vahina Fierro 418 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 6: at plus forty five hundred, which in a couple events ago, 419 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 6: which was the longest in the field of twelve at 420 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,919 Speaker 6: that point she ended up winning, and now she is 421 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 6: favored here at plus three forty. This is important because 422 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 6: this event is in Tahiti. Obviously, the Olympics is in Paris. 423 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 6: You can't really surf in Paris. The surfing event is 424 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,439 Speaker 6: halfway across the world. Tahiti is the political center of 425 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 6: French Polynesia, which is actually an overseas country of the 426 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:39,400 Speaker 6: French Republic, and Vahina Fierro is from Tahiti. This wave 427 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 6: at Tahiti is a beast. It is one of the 428 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 6: hardest waves in the world. It is an absolute monster, 429 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 6: and so if you haven't surfed this thing before, it's 430 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 6: going to be really difficult, even if you're a professional surfer. 431 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 6: Vehine grew up surfing this thing. She knows the deal. 432 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 6: The sportsbooks didn't know that when they had the regular 433 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 6: event here a couple months ago, when they hung her 434 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,359 Speaker 6: plus forty five hundred. That's why we bet hunter her. 435 00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 6: That's why she was able to win that one. They 436 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,479 Speaker 6: have now figured that out, so they have made her 437 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,679 Speaker 6: the favorite. I think the value is gone at this 438 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 6: point at plus three forty. I was hoping we'd get 439 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 6: longer odds on her again because she's not the best 440 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 6: surfer in the world, but she knows this wave. Fortunately 441 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 6: they figured that out, so there's a couple other places 442 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 6: I'm actually looking now for value. Katie Simmers is the 443 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 6: best surfer in the world at most places. Obviously here 444 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 6: it's a little bit different, but she's third in odds 445 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 6: right now at plus six point fifty. She was the 446 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 6: runner up at this location in her rookie year twenty 447 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 6: twenty three. She's young, she's still only eighteen, and in 448 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 6: this past event a couple months ago, she put up 449 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 6: some really good scores but got knocked out by fierro 450 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,679 Speaker 6: who ended up winning. So she still has had a 451 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 6: lot of success at this venue and she's obviously been 452 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 6: the best in the world basically everywhere else, so I 453 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 6: think plus six fifty is too long for her. And 454 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 6: then Tatiana Weston Webb at plus nine hundred has also 455 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 6: been really good at this specific wave the last couple 456 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 6: of years. She also lost a couple months ago in 457 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 6: that same event to Veheena fierro In in absolutely epic 458 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 6: semi finals where she had a perfect score of ten 459 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 6: which is very rare to see and still wasn't quite 460 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 6: able to get the win. But she has shown that 461 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 6: she can handle this crazy beast of a wave as well. 462 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 6: So plus nine hundred for her I think is also 463 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 6: really good value. 464 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 3: We promised in depth analysis, We promised we'd bring you 465 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 3: experts to know these sports inside and out. I still 466 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 3: wasn't ready for a hashtag home wave advantage. That is fantastic. 467 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 1: Take that one to the bank. 468 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,439 Speaker 3: At the very least, you're going to sound like the 469 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 3: smartest guy at the sports bar when you're watching this 470 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 3: one down in Tahiti. A special thanks to Calvin and 471 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 3: Evan for getting us kickstarted here on our full Olympic coverage. 472 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 3: We're onto our next specialist and more events to bet 473 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 3: on at the Olympics. 474 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 8: The Action Network podcast Everybody Is Brought to You by 475 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 8: bet MGM used the bonus Code action when signing up 476 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 8: to get up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus 477 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 8: bets if your first bet does not win. For new 478 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 8: users in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 479 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 8: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, 480 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 8: and Wyoming. 481 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. 482 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,239 Speaker 8: Must be twenty one plus gambling problem called one eight 483 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 8: hundred gambler. 484 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 3: All right, we're keeping it at a rapid pace here now, 485 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 3: welcoming in David Gertler, a special Action Network contributor on 486 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 3: the sport of tennis. David, how are you doing good? 487 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 3: How are you doing great? Let's get right into it. 488 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 3: Let's start with the men's side, and then I have 489 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,400 Speaker 3: some you know, forty thousand foot questions when it comes 490 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 3: to the Olympic tennis events. But let's start with men's 491 00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 3: Who are you targeting and who do you think potentially 492 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 3: is mispriced before the draw. 493 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 9: It's hard to go against Carlos Alcarez, so you can 494 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,880 Speaker 9: find him in the market at plus one eighty five, 495 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 9: which does not necessarily indicate how great he's been this summers, 496 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,160 Speaker 9: both the men's in the women's tennis tournament for the Olympics. 497 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 9: Has played at roll on Garros, which is the French 498 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 9: Open site. It's clay courts, it's slow, and Alcarez this 499 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 9: season alone has won the friend Open, which is a 500 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 9: tennis major. He's twelve and three this season alone on clay, 501 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 9: thirty three and six overall. He's also on klay for 502 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 9: his career one hundred and thirty eight and thirty four. 503 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 9: That's an eighty percent win rate. That is insane. Now 504 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 9: you might be like, well, he might be tired. Plus 505 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 9: one eighty five. That doesn't get the Jesus blowing. If 506 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,520 Speaker 9: you're looking for someone a little but maybe less known 507 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 9: outside of the tennis universe. Alcarez's opponent in the French 508 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 9: Open final Alexander Zverev. He's plus six fifty for the title. 509 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 9: Super solid from the baseline. He's gonna make your work 510 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:41,679 Speaker 9: for everything, and this season alone he is sixteen and 511 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 9: four on clay, and he is one hundred eighty nine 512 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 9: and eighty four for his career for sixty nine percent 513 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 9: winning percentage. He is a hardened clay quarter who took 514 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,919 Speaker 9: it to Alcarez to five at the French Open, And 515 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 9: if Alcaz goes out early, he's someone that I think 516 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:01,679 Speaker 9: I can trust to, especially plus six fifty get the 517 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 9: job done. 518 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 3: How much weight do you put into motivation. 519 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 9: I think that if it didn't mean much, they were 520 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 9: you're going to pull out before the Olympics. But it's 521 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 9: impossible to say. 522 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 3: Now. 523 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,959 Speaker 9: Djokovic has mentioned how important the Olympics are to him, 524 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 9: But anyone who watched Djokovic against Alcarez, finally a worthy 525 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 9: opponent in his cake walk Wimbledon draw, would say that 526 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 9: I don't think I trust him against the top of 527 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 9: the men's game right now. Maybe in a few months 528 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 9: when he's gotten more time to heal from his knee injury, 529 00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 9: but the motivation to win the Olympics might be high 530 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:40,119 Speaker 9: for him. But Alcaaz and probably Zverev on clay at 531 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 9: this point are probably better tennis players. 532 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 3: Now, you just mentioned Sabolenka, that's a natural transition to 533 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 3: you know, the women in this events free draw. Does 534 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 3: it matter nearly as much as the drawl will make 535 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 3: a difference in the men's side, or is this something 536 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 3: where you're betting regardless of how it shakes out, and 537 00:24:58,160 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 3: there's better value to hop in right now? 538 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,360 Speaker 9: Honestly, I think anyone who falls tennis who is not 539 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 9: trying to bullshit will agree with me here. Egos Riata, 540 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 9: you can find her in the market at minus one 541 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,359 Speaker 9: ninety five to win the title, by the way, not 542 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 9: for the first match, not to make the semis. To 543 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 9: win the title, you can find her a minus one 544 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 9: ninety five. And you might be like, that's a steep 545 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,439 Speaker 9: number for someone to win the title. Let me promise 546 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,680 Speaker 9: you I think it should probably be even a little 547 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,680 Speaker 9: bigger than that. Swyat Tech has won the French Open 548 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 9: same site play fourhead of the last five years, including 549 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 9: three straight years. This season. At the French Open, she 550 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:40,399 Speaker 9: lost one set to Naomi Osaka, which I honestly was 551 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 9: a bit of a fluky match. 552 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 3: That's a different story. 553 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:48,159 Speaker 9: And she after that Oscca match wasn't even challenged in 554 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 9: the final. What did she lose like one. 555 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 1: Or two games? 556 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 3: I think it's three games. 557 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,919 Speaker 9: Maybe it was a joke. She is that good on 558 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,439 Speaker 9: play with her heavy forehand, her ability to move on 559 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 9: the surface, her pinpoint serve, her rally tolerance, the placement 560 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 9: around the court, it's all spectacular. For Spiatech's career, she's 561 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 9: one hundred and thirty two and seventeen for on the surface, 562 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 9: and then just this season alone she is twenty one 563 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:20,400 Speaker 9: in one, having one Madrid Rome and Roland Garris, which 564 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:24,200 Speaker 9: are the three biggest tournaments on the women's calendar. Now, 565 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,159 Speaker 9: let's say she sprains her ankle or something, because that's 566 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 9: the only way I see that she loses, honestly, and 567 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,880 Speaker 9: you're like, well, who can I grab? That isn't egos 568 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 9: Yata Because I don't want to bet on minus one 569 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 9: ninety five to win a tournament, which I do understand 570 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,600 Speaker 9: you might be tempted to bet on Verbakna. I don't, 571 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 9: even though her record on clay is fairly good. Verbakena, 572 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,360 Speaker 9: by the way, does have a winning head to head 573 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 9: against viat Tech, but no, I honestly can't see it. Honestly, 574 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 9: she's plus eleven hundred. She's just not consistent enough to 575 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 9: back her. The one name I would say is Coco 576 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:05,239 Speaker 9: Goth I'm sure a lot of y'all American people are 577 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 9: gonna just you know, American flag next to the name. 578 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 9: She has a shot, let's go better. Honestly, I probably 579 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 9: wouldn't unless you're making something small. She has a very 580 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 9: good backhand, but her forehand is fairly poor, which honestly, 581 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 9: the fact that she made it to world number two 582 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 9: given her really terrible forehand relative to her ranking is 583 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 9: pretty shocking. But at plus six point fifty she would 584 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 9: be the clear favorite in my mind if spot Tech 585 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,200 Speaker 9: broker lag or something. So I guess you can throw 586 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 9: that in there for a small bed if you want to, 587 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 9: if you want to. Ultimately, this is this is the 588 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 9: you guysotech's tournament to lose and. 589 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:46,919 Speaker 3: We'll finish there. Which basically there's a huge differential between books. 590 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,440 Speaker 3: There's going to be, you know, massive differences in terms 591 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,679 Speaker 3: of how things are priced, particularly as the tournament moves forward. 592 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 3: At what point is she truly prohibitively priced minus one 593 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:01,119 Speaker 3: ninety five you wouldn't blink you throw money down on that. 594 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 3: At what point do you move off of her as 595 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 3: the major favorite on the women's side. 596 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 9: I just don't see her losing unless she gets injured. 597 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 9: I think if it gets any bigger than minus two depty, 598 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:12,919 Speaker 9: I would say just stay away. 599 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 3: Honestly, well, there we have it. That's your play on 600 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 3: the women's side, you know, keep it simple, stupid as 601 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:21,879 Speaker 3: they say, why go against the best player in the 602 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 3: world who I think you've talked me into it at 603 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,200 Speaker 3: minus two hundred. It's a play for me as well. 604 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 3: And then also walking us through the men's side, David, 605 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,920 Speaker 3: We appreciate it so much. Thanks for joining the podcast. 606 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 9: Of course, thank y'all so much for having. 607 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 4: Me all right. 608 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 3: Time to lace it up and step into the ring 609 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 3: for our boxing preview here at the Olympics. We're joined 610 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 3: by Brian fonseca Action How contributor and boxing expert, and 611 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 3: Brian you can correct me if I'm wrong, but I 612 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 3: feel like the Olympics are often this launching pad for superstardom, 613 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:51,960 Speaker 3: particularly for some of the boxers who go on to 614 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:55,719 Speaker 3: win gold. You look at previous winners Cassius Clay, Joe Frazier, 615 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 3: George Foreman, Sugary, Leonard Lennox, Lewis, Oscar de la Hoya. 616 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 3: Do you feel for starters that there's an opportunity to 617 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 3: be that for the gold medalist. And second of all, 618 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 3: could you just walk us through a bit of the 619 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 3: format of how these tournaments take. 620 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,240 Speaker 10: Place, so briefly on the first point, yes, it could 621 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 10: still be a launching pad even if you don't win 622 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 10: a gold medal. We saw this specifically with Team USA 623 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,560 Speaker 10: in the last Olympics, where they did not win a 624 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,280 Speaker 10: gold medal, and the men haven't since two thousand and four. However, 625 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 10: they did have multiple silvers and a couple of the 626 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 10: guys that won silver, and Kishan Davis and Richid Taurus 627 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 10: Junior have since become two of the best prospects in 628 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,560 Speaker 10: the sport. Kishon Davis is probably more of a contender 629 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,400 Speaker 10: now at this point and looks like he's going to 630 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 10: be a fixture in the lightweight division for a long time. 631 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 10: Richard Turius Junior is undefeated and has knocked out all 632 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 10: of his opponents as a pro. In terms of the format, 633 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 10: there's sort of a gift and a curse here. The 634 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 10: great thing is that there are more weight classes for women, 635 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 10: and we're going to see more women competing in the 636 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 10: Olympics than we have before. The bad news is for 637 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 10: the men, we're seeing a lot less so the weight 638 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 10: classes have been cut to seven for the men, there's 639 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,560 Speaker 10: going to be about one hundred and twenty four men 640 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 10: competing in the Olympics. In Brazil there was two hundred 641 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,720 Speaker 10: and fifty men competing, and this was in twenty sixteen. 642 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 10: We're not entirely sure if boxing is going to be 643 00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 10: in the Olympics in twenty twenty eight, which is going 644 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,000 Speaker 10: to be here in America, but in terms of the 645 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 10: weight classes, it's made it difficult because there are no 646 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 10: men's weight classes between one hundred and fifty six and 647 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 10: one hundred and seventy six pounds, despite the fact that 648 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 10: the middleweight pro boxing limit is that one sixty super 649 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 10: midweight is one sixty eight at the pro level, So 650 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 10: you have guys that are going to have to move 651 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 10: up and down weeight classes that they're not truly comfortable, 652 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 10: and that could sort of distort things. A couple things 653 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 10: worth knowing. Amateur boxing is a different game than pro boxing. 654 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 10: Pro boxing four rounds if you're starting out, then you 655 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 10: go to six, to eight, to ten, and to twelve 656 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 10: when you're fighting for a championship Olympic boxing. Amateur boxing 657 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,560 Speaker 10: you get three rounds and you have three minute rounds here, 658 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 10: and a lot of amateur competitions you'll get two minute rounds. 659 00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 10: You need volume punching to win. You don't have really 660 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 10: time to fill out your opponent. You have to just 661 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 10: go right away. Like there will be counter punching, there 662 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,320 Speaker 10: will be head movement defense and all those things, but 663 00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,360 Speaker 10: you only have three rounds to work. If you get 664 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,840 Speaker 10: knocked down, you have to make up a lot there. 665 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 10: And robberies do happen, even in the Olympics originals. Junior 666 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 10: famously was a victim of one in nineteen eighty eight 667 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:10,200 Speaker 10: in so South Korea. That's famously maybe the worst robbery 668 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 10: in boxing history, where he should have won the gold medal. 669 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 1: He lost. 670 00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 10: Michael Conlin twenty sixteen, he lost to a dude from Russia, 671 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 10: to the point where he actually tweeted at Vladimir Putin. 672 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 10: Anthony Joshua, who's been a heavyweight champion, got a gift 673 00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 10: against Arizonanti Savone in the finals of the twenty twelve Olympics, 674 00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,600 Speaker 10: Floyd Mayweather in nineteen ninety six, so on and so forth. 675 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 10: Like the judging historically has not been amazing here, which 676 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 10: is the same in the pros. 677 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 1: In a lot of cases. 678 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 10: And one more thing I did want to know because 679 00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:42,840 Speaker 10: this is very important in amateur boxing. Typically, like those 680 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 10: are the guys that compete in the Olympics. But since 681 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 10: twenty sixteen, professional boxers have been allowed to compete in 682 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 10: the Olympics. Now they haven't done amazingly. Hassan and Dom 683 00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,960 Speaker 10: he competed in the Olympics in twenty sixteen. He's a 684 00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,960 Speaker 10: former interim middleweight champion. Ok, think that he would whoop 685 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,680 Speaker 10: everybody because he's so much older. He's already had thirty 686 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 10: something profits or whatever, and he lost in the first 687 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 10: round in pretty embarrassing fashion. 688 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 1: Like, it doesn't mean if you're. 689 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 10: A pro, you're absolutely going to winness, although there's one 690 00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,400 Speaker 10: pro in particular who I think could destroy his competition, 691 00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 10: which we'll talk about a little bit. 692 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,920 Speaker 3: Two questions for you. One, if you're better but you're 693 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 3: also quite patriotic and you want to build a US 694 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 3: play a card, who are you backing in this tournament? 695 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 3: And then secondly, just you know, free form, anyone, any country, 696 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 3: Who are the best bets on the board in your opinion? 697 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 10: Yeah, So Jamal Harvey of Team USA is probably the 698 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 10: one I would look at. Now he may have the 699 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 10: best pro pedigree of the guys here. He competes basically 700 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 10: at featherweight. In the featherweight division, he's won world championship, 701 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 10: he's won the Pan American Games already, and he's just 702 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,040 Speaker 10: twenty one years old. You can sort of see the speed, 703 00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 10: the reflexes, the power there at the featherweight division, he's 704 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,200 Speaker 10: beaten other top amateurs already, and again he's in his 705 00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 10: early twenties. Like, he's probably the guy I would look at, 706 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 10: and he's actually I think in the men's featherweight plus 707 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 10: four hundred ish depending on where you look, to win 708 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 10: his tournament. Like, he's not the favorite, but he's somebody 709 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 10: who's probably worth a shot. Maybe he ends up getting 710 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,719 Speaker 10: the bronze or silver if he gets far enough, Like 711 00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:13,800 Speaker 10: I mean, that justifies it as a good bet. But 712 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 10: of the eight boxers from Team USA, of which there 713 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 10: are four men and four women, Jamal Harvey is probably 714 00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 10: the one I would most identify. And then in terms 715 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 10: of the rest of the Olympics, it starts and ends 716 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 10: with Bako diir Jalalov, who is from Uzbekistan, who is 717 00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 10: a heavyweight who is minus three twenty to win his tournament, 718 00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 10: but he won gold in the last Olympics. He's one 719 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,560 Speaker 10: of these pro boxers who is actually really good in 720 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,720 Speaker 10: the Olympics. I frankly don't know why he's still fighting 721 00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 10: in amateur boxing because he's already ranked by multiple sanctioning 722 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 10: bodies as a top ten or fifteen heavyweight in the 723 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 10: world in pro boxing, because he is fourteen to zero 724 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,640 Speaker 10: with fourteen knockouts, and he's already fought on the ESPN. 725 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:52,480 Speaker 10: So I don't know why he's doing this other than 726 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,880 Speaker 10: like country pride and things of that nature. But he 727 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,640 Speaker 10: has a ridiculous amateur resume. He's the one who actually 728 00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 10: beat Richard Torres Junior, who I mentioned earlier in the 729 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,720 Speaker 10: Olympics last time out for the gold medal matchups. So 730 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,959 Speaker 10: I mean it's minus three hundred three to twenty depending 731 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,839 Speaker 10: on where you look. But like I'd be stunned if 732 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:10,799 Speaker 10: he doesn't win this tournament. I don't know who's going 733 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:12,400 Speaker 10: to beat him in that weight class because he's so 734 00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:13,600 Speaker 10: much better than everybody else. 735 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 1: A couple other bets. 736 00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,200 Speaker 10: That I really like for this tournament going to try 737 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 10: to pick someone else who's not a favorite in a 738 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,480 Speaker 10: little bit, but there are a couple other favorites that 739 00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 10: I do like Tomorrow's Bolt from Canada, just north of 740 00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,040 Speaker 10: the border. At women's middleweight. She is plus one fifty 741 00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,359 Speaker 10: to win her tournament. She won gold at the World 742 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:33,000 Speaker 10: Championships in twenty twenty two. She won gold at the 743 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 10: Commonwealth Games in twenty twenty two, at the Pan American 744 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:36,760 Speaker 10: Games in twenty twenty three. 745 00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,200 Speaker 1: She is a six foot south Paul. She's big. 746 00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,520 Speaker 10: She has all the south Paul combinations you want that 747 00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:44,920 Speaker 10: one one two from range, straight left to the body, 748 00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 10: that right hook to the head, straight left after the fact. Like, 749 00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:50,359 Speaker 10: she's really skilled and I think that she should win 750 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:54,640 Speaker 10: this tournament. We also have Busino Sermonelli from Turkey, who 751 00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:58,880 Speaker 10: is a women's welterweight who is really really good and 752 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 10: kind of a show voter, a lot of fun to 753 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 10: watch as well when she's in rhythm. 754 00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:03,800 Speaker 1: She won gold at the last Olympics. 755 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,319 Speaker 10: She wont gold at the twenty nineteen and twenty twenty 756 00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:07,320 Speaker 10: two World Championships. 757 00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 1: So this is going to be at sixty six kilos. 758 00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,719 Speaker 10: And she has very good footwork, can fight inside and out, 759 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:16,280 Speaker 10: very comfortable there. And here's somebody who's not a favorite 760 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,359 Speaker 10: in his competition, though he's sort of up. 761 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:19,600 Speaker 1: There is Arlen Lopez. 762 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,560 Speaker 10: He's going to be fighting out of Cuba one hundred 763 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,360 Speaker 10: and seventy six pounds, and I should mention that sirmont 764 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,879 Speaker 10: Ellie's from Turkey, Arta. Lopez one hundred and seventy six 765 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,799 Speaker 10: pounds plus two hundred and seventy five is plus three 766 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,799 Speaker 10: hundred ish, so not the favorite to win his competition, 767 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,439 Speaker 10: and at one hundred and seventy six pounds he did 768 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:38,399 Speaker 10: win the gold medal twenty twenty one. 769 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:39,839 Speaker 1: He also has. 770 00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 10: A gold medal at middleweight because he has a resume 771 00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,080 Speaker 10: that sort of dates back to middleway. He's one of 772 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 10: these Cuban dudes who's been the amateur boxer forever, which 773 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,359 Speaker 10: is a thing in Cuba. Like guys in Cuba are 774 00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,360 Speaker 10: from Cuba famously stay in the amateurs forever before turning 775 00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:54,239 Speaker 10: pro if they ever do. 776 00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:55,200 Speaker 1: Some of them never do. 777 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,279 Speaker 10: He's looking to become one of the only three time 778 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,240 Speaker 10: Olympic gold medalists in boxing history. 779 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:02,319 Speaker 1: There's only been a few. 780 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,359 Speaker 10: Felix Ivone Tail, Philo Stevenson and Laslo Pap and then 781 00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,480 Speaker 10: Julio Sister Lacruz, also from Cuba. He's plus one pint 782 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,040 Speaker 10: thirty to win his competition. That's at ninety two kilos. 783 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 10: Both of them, I would back. 784 00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:13,600 Speaker 1: Shit. 785 00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,359 Speaker 10: If you want to do a Cuban parlay, you could 786 00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,240 Speaker 10: probably do that. You know, with Arde Lopez and Julio 787 00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,800 Speaker 10: sister Lacruz. They're both very good, and they have the 788 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 10: Cuban style where it's low hands, it's show body, amazing reflexes, 789 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:28,799 Speaker 10: piston like jab hooks from angles that you don't expect. Yeah, 790 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 10: I think they can both win the tournament. So those 791 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,640 Speaker 10: are those are the guys I would identify in terms 792 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,480 Speaker 10: of I know most of them are favorites, but I 793 00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,280 Speaker 10: would say that their favorites for a reason. 794 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 1: You know, you try to look for underdogs. 795 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,440 Speaker 10: Maybe a Cano Machado from Brazil at ninety two kilos 796 00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,840 Speaker 10: who's plus twelve hundred to win his tournament. The problem 797 00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,320 Speaker 10: is he can't seem to get past Julio, says so Lacruz. 798 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:49,880 Speaker 10: But if he's able to avoid him, and then Julio 799 00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,920 Speaker 10: says so Lacruz gets upset, maybe he can sort of 800 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:53,719 Speaker 10: navigate that. 801 00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:55,400 Speaker 1: Those are the bets I like for the Olympics. 802 00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,760 Speaker 3: All right, we are ready to rumble with these boxing 803 00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 3: best bets. Brian, thank you so much for stopping in 804 00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,480 Speaker 3: and walking us through everything we need to know between 805 00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 3: the ropes and how to bet here at the Olympics 806 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,719 Speaker 3: when it comes to boxing. If you liked what you 807 00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,839 Speaker 3: heard and you want more, he is a contributor here 808 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,480 Speaker 3: at the Action Network, so you can see him on video, 809 00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,719 Speaker 3: on podcasts as well as on the app with rate 810 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:15,799 Speaker 3: ups all through the Olympics, so be sure to check in. 811 00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 3: Then we make the transition to the pitch here at 812 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,760 Speaker 3: the Olympics, hoping to get some men's and women's soccer 813 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:26,120 Speaker 3: picks out of Michael Leeboff, an expert here on soccer, 814 00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:27,640 Speaker 3: ice hockey. Is there anything else you cover at the 815 00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:28,280 Speaker 3: Action Network? 816 00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:30,880 Speaker 11: Just about everything that that I can find that's not 817 00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 11: NFL or NBA. A lot of Aussie rules these days, Mike. 818 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 11: It's we're in the top of the stretch down under 819 00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,319 Speaker 11: getting on Brisbane before it's too late. I would say 820 00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,200 Speaker 11: they are getting hot at the right moment. But in 821 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 11: terms of the twenty twenty four Olympic, let's start with 822 00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,880 Speaker 11: the men's soccer. These soccer tournaments are very strange that 823 00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 11: nobody really cares about them. From a player's perspective, like 824 00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,400 Speaker 11: all the stars skip them, so the team's are essentially 825 00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,399 Speaker 11: like a you twenty three team. I believe the rule 826 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:59,160 Speaker 11: is you can have two overage players, so it's a 827 00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,400 Speaker 11: youth team one or two old hands, but that's really it. 828 00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 11: So that causes a lot of confusion in terms of handicapping. 829 00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:08,919 Speaker 11: But usually the hosts, if it is a soccer playing nation, 830 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,399 Speaker 11: we'll try to gussie up their team as much as 831 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:12,879 Speaker 11: I can. In the French have done that, that's why 832 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,799 Speaker 11: they're the favorite at plus two twenty five. 833 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:16,040 Speaker 1: But I'm not going to. 834 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 11: Go there at all. I think that it's you know, 835 00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 11: it's just there's just way too much volatility when you 836 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,760 Speaker 11: look at these rosters. So there are a couple teams 837 00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,880 Speaker 11: that I do find interesting. I think Japan is a 838 00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:29,759 Speaker 11: worthy long shot at thirty three to one, just given 839 00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,359 Speaker 11: their group. So top two teams in each group get through. 840 00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:36,600 Speaker 11: There are four groups of four. Japan's group is Paraguay, 841 00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 11: Mali and Israel, so not really any danger there for 842 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,759 Speaker 11: the Japanese the Blue Samurai to get through. So if 843 00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:47,720 Speaker 11: they can get through the group stage, obviously you're sitting 844 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,799 Speaker 11: with a thirty three to one ticket you'll feel pretty 845 00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,960 Speaker 11: good about that. On the other team, I think is 846 00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,480 Speaker 11: also kind of interesting. And their triple digit long shot 847 00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:02,320 Speaker 11: is Iraq because, like I said, the floors and ceilings 848 00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,520 Speaker 11: for these teams are it's anyone's guests, Like nobody really 849 00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 11: understands how these teams will play. You can look at 850 00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:12,360 Speaker 11: like you setups whatever. They're in a tough group with Argentina, Morocco, 851 00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:16,480 Speaker 11: and Ukraine. Argentina along with Spain is essentially a second favorite. 852 00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:19,200 Speaker 11: But the other two teams in that group, with being 853 00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,919 Speaker 11: Morocco Ukraine, I'm not too afraid of. And you're gonna 854 00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:23,400 Speaker 11: have to take at least one long shot in this 855 00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,680 Speaker 11: in this field, and I think Iraq is worth it. 856 00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,279 Speaker 11: Like this, when I said that this tournament won't matter 857 00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,200 Speaker 11: to a lot of teams, like for the smaller countries 858 00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:35,520 Speaker 11: like Iraq, Guinea, Mali, Israel, like it will Dominican Republic 859 00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 11: is here that does matter a little bit. So one 860 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:39,959 Speaker 11: hundred to one can't go wrong with the triple digit 861 00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:41,160 Speaker 11: long shot and the men's. 862 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 3: Just one quick question you talked about roster composition. Also 863 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,640 Speaker 3: coming off of these you know, huge events like the Euros, 864 00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,919 Speaker 3: how often have these guys even played together, and does 865 00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,640 Speaker 3: that matter as much as it may in other sports 866 00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,280 Speaker 3: at the Olympics for continuity purposes. 867 00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,480 Speaker 11: Like they'll have trained together, but the bigger country is 868 00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,759 Speaker 11: the answer is probably very little. Like they'll probably have 869 00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 11: play together on youth team setups, you know you're you 870 00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,680 Speaker 11: nineteens U twenty ones, they'll they'll have some familiarity with 871 00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:07,520 Speaker 11: each other, but like if you look at the French 872 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,600 Speaker 11: roster and put it next to the roster that we 873 00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,880 Speaker 11: saw at the Euros, there's almost no kind of crossover 874 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,160 Speaker 11: at all. I think Michael Elisa is like the only 875 00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,719 Speaker 11: player and Argentina at the KOPA. I think Julian Alvarez 876 00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:22,320 Speaker 11: and Nicholas Odamni are the only two that are making 877 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,719 Speaker 11: the trip to France for the Olympics. 878 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:26,680 Speaker 3: That's part of why it's good to take. 879 00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,120 Speaker 11: On some long shots in the men's side teams like 880 00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:31,480 Speaker 11: maybe Mali and Dominican Republic who are taking it. I 881 00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,600 Speaker 11: don't want to say more seriously, but more seriously, they 882 00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:38,080 Speaker 11: will you care, and be practicing and playing together more 883 00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,560 Speaker 11: and gearing up for this, like there'll be a ramp 884 00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,880 Speaker 11: up to it, whereas the other teams it's kind of 885 00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,640 Speaker 11: not you, they're just thrown together. We're what ten days 886 00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,360 Speaker 11: out and the Euro's just finished, the Copa America just finished. 887 00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:49,920 Speaker 11: So yeah, I think that some of these favors can 888 00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:52,640 Speaker 11: be pick picked apart by some of these teams that 889 00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,960 Speaker 11: maybe have more chemistry building in training camps while the 890 00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:57,600 Speaker 11: others are playing in bigger tournaments. 891 00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:00,040 Speaker 3: Now you just teased it. Is there no number that 892 00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,319 Speaker 3: prohibitive enough to move you off of some of the 893 00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:04,960 Speaker 3: favorites on the women's side, or is this a situation 894 00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,600 Speaker 3: where it's maybe pick and shoes depending on the draws 895 00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:10,080 Speaker 3: that there could be a long shot or two that 896 00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:10,879 Speaker 3: makes a deep run. 897 00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,880 Speaker 11: So yeah, the women's side of it is very different 898 00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,600 Speaker 11: because this is this is a big tournament for in 899 00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,200 Speaker 11: the women's game, right like the just because of how 900 00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:22,000 Speaker 11: the sports have grown, Like the Olympics were a huge 901 00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,759 Speaker 11: deal for women's soccer for a long time. I think 902 00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,880 Speaker 11: a lot of it goes back to ninety six in Atlanta, 903 00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,279 Speaker 11: and just like how the women's game has grown and 904 00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,720 Speaker 11: the Olympics has been a big launching pad for women's soccer, 905 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,560 Speaker 11: not just in America but other ones. So this is 906 00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:39,759 Speaker 11: a much bigger tournament for the women's game than it 907 00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:42,879 Speaker 11: is in the men's game. That kind of leads into 908 00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,839 Speaker 11: the bedding, which is, yeah, you can take a look 909 00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:48,400 Speaker 11: at the favorites on the women's side. I like Australia 910 00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:51,960 Speaker 11: though they're sixteen to one. They're a really good program. 911 00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:53,799 Speaker 11: They've been around some big trophies for a while. This 912 00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:55,799 Speaker 11: is it's a really good program. They just finished third 913 00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,759 Speaker 11: in their their home World Cup in twenty twenty three. 914 00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:01,240 Speaker 11: The draw is tough, but the thing with the women's 915 00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,319 Speaker 11: side of the tournament is so there's three groups of 916 00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,160 Speaker 11: four and some third place teams get through. So the 917 00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:07,719 Speaker 11: fact that they are in a tough group with the 918 00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:11,440 Speaker 11: USA and Germany isn't like a huge death sentence. They 919 00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:13,160 Speaker 11: they could still find their way through. It was like 920 00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,000 Speaker 11: a third place team, or they can upset one of 921 00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,560 Speaker 11: the US or Germany. This is they're a really good team. 922 00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:19,360 Speaker 11: So I think it's sixteen to one. They'd be my 923 00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:22,719 Speaker 11: favorite of the teams outside of the favorite. If you 924 00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:25,200 Speaker 11: want to just play the Americans of plus one seventy five, 925 00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:27,680 Speaker 11: you'll go for it like it's they are the best 926 00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:31,560 Speaker 11: team in the field. It's been a while for them. Look, 927 00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:33,680 Speaker 11: I'm not going to talk anybody off of betting on 928 00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,560 Speaker 11: the US women's They are America's team. I guess outside 929 00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,440 Speaker 11: of you're Louisiana Tech Bulldogs behind you. Who's a more 930 00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,200 Speaker 11: popular team on these shore Sea of Shining Sea than 931 00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:44,560 Speaker 11: the US women's national team. 932 00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,120 Speaker 3: Thank you so much, Mike for popping in. We have 933 00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:51,319 Speaker 3: more Olympic coverage up next time to tee it up 934 00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:54,280 Speaker 3: for some Olympic golf action, we welcome in Josh Perry, 935 00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:56,920 Speaker 3: Action Network Golf contributor, as well as Spencer Aguiar, co 936 00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:01,040 Speaker 3: host of Action Networks Golf Betting podcast links and guys, 937 00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,920 Speaker 3: how are you feeling ahead of this action on the links? 938 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,719 Speaker 2: This is going to be a really exciting tournament. Like 939 00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,880 Speaker 2: when you look at this course and you know we 940 00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,160 Speaker 2: can get a little bit deeper into it in a second, 941 00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,319 Speaker 2: but this is a venue that you see yearly on 942 00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,160 Speaker 2: the DP World Tour. It holds the open difference. You 943 00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,320 Speaker 2: might also remember the name when we saw at Front 944 00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:23,120 Speaker 2: and Center in the twenty eighteen Ryder Cup when the 945 00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,880 Speaker 2: USA went down there, they ended up following seventeen and 946 00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:27,919 Speaker 2: a half to ten and a half. But you look 947 00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:31,600 Speaker 2: at where each home country ends up pushing this in 948 00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:34,880 Speaker 2: these spots and you always get the Americans going towards 949 00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:38,239 Speaker 2: the driver heavy courses. You have Europe that pushes you 950 00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:41,040 Speaker 2: during these venues where you have to be more tactical. 951 00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:45,000 Speaker 2: The precision's gonna get accentuated. That's what you're gonna get. 952 00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:45,520 Speaker 4: At this course. 953 00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:48,560 Speaker 2: So like think Florida Golf that's mixed with your links 954 00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,759 Speaker 2: plus French connections that come into play. It's an interesting 955 00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,120 Speaker 2: tournament from a game theory perspective that we can talk 956 00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,120 Speaker 2: about in a second, Josh. 957 00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,440 Speaker 3: In terms of the tournament itself, we now have the 958 00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,239 Speaker 3: four major in the books. How does this format work? 959 00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,480 Speaker 3: Does it basically play out like a normal tournament for 960 00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:06,920 Speaker 3: those trying to bet on Olympic golf for the first time. 961 00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,279 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's four rounds, no cut, like just basically like 962 00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,000 Speaker 7: your your elevated type events that we see on tour. Yeah, 963 00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:15,279 Speaker 7: it's pretty straightforward as hard as stroke play goes. I 964 00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:16,480 Speaker 7: haven't done anything fancy with. 965 00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,000 Speaker 3: It yet, Bencer, where's your head out in terms of 966 00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:21,360 Speaker 3: best bets for this? So that people can start building 967 00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:21,759 Speaker 3: their card. 968 00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,360 Speaker 2: So when you get this sixty man field, like the 969 00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,320 Speaker 2: way that I built my model here the bottom twenty 970 00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:31,040 Speaker 2: percent that I had inside of my math of those 971 00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:34,320 Speaker 2: competing were much weaker than you typically get from a 972 00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,960 Speaker 2: week in, week out tournament. I think that's always the 973 00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:39,239 Speaker 2: first layer of what you're trying to handicap from a 974 00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:43,399 Speaker 2: modeling perspective, since understanding where the gaps of skills land 975 00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,120 Speaker 2: help determine the pricing for the board. I just want 976 00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:48,600 Speaker 2: everybody to think of this beyond before we even talk 977 00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:52,719 Speaker 2: about bets. Like most golf tournaments present this very straightforward 978 00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,239 Speaker 2: blueprint of what's being asked. You play your opening two 979 00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,600 Speaker 2: rounds to make the weekend. You technically get more or 980 00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,440 Speaker 2: less aggressive from there. That's going to decide the final 981 00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,239 Speaker 2: few factors of are you trying to get a better 982 00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,120 Speaker 2: payday are you trying to win the tournament. One of 983 00:45:05,120 --> 00:45:07,080 Speaker 2: the things that you have to take into account here 984 00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:11,240 Speaker 2: is only three players are going to be working towards gold, silver, 985 00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:14,919 Speaker 2: and bronze. It's such a high end, high upside, high 986 00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:17,440 Speaker 2: rewards sort of a return that you're getting here that 987 00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:21,520 Speaker 2: you get a really interesting golf course where there's water 988 00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,640 Speaker 2: all around the facility, there's thick rough, it's a course 989 00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:27,000 Speaker 2: where it's a club down nature like I talked about, 990 00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,600 Speaker 2: but you also get this game plan that when players 991 00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:34,040 Speaker 2: find themselves falling back on the pack, they have to 992 00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,799 Speaker 2: technically be more aggressive to try to work themselves up 993 00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:37,520 Speaker 2: the leader board. 994 00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:39,200 Speaker 4: So it's a highly. 995 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,120 Speaker 2: Volatile course with three names that are trying to compete 996 00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:45,200 Speaker 2: for those medals for their country. So when I tried 997 00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,000 Speaker 2: to build this card and figure out the way that 998 00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,240 Speaker 2: I wanted to go, I thought there were a couple 999 00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:52,200 Speaker 2: options that made sense. I ended up starting with Victor 1000 00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:55,600 Speaker 2: Hovlind at twenty two to one. In my opinion, we're 1001 00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,799 Speaker 2: getting this price because of his recent form. I view 1002 00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:01,040 Speaker 2: this very similar though to his third place at the 1003 00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:04,640 Speaker 2: PGA Championship a few months ago. Havlan rank first or 1004 00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:07,880 Speaker 2: fifth in my model when faced with similar total driving courses. 1005 00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:10,400 Speaker 2: He was second for way to strokes gain total for 1006 00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:14,120 Speaker 2: this venue. That's kind of the glorified highlight of the 1007 00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:16,759 Speaker 2: like golf national fit that he has, and then he 1008 00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:21,120 Speaker 2: was fifth on similar putting surfaces. You will note that 1009 00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:23,800 Speaker 2: a lot of his struggles have occurred with this sloppy 1010 00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:27,040 Speaker 2: around the green production that we've gotten in twenty twenty four. 1011 00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:30,960 Speaker 2: But I keep going back to this answer. Thick rough water, 1012 00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:34,040 Speaker 2: this Florida esque feel with all the water that comes 1013 00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:38,440 Speaker 2: into play that accentuated the need for ball striking, and 1014 00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:42,040 Speaker 2: really remove some of those harsh elements that come into 1015 00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,439 Speaker 2: play from his short game that keep holding him back. 1016 00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:47,719 Speaker 2: So you know, I wouldn't be surprised, And I mean 1017 00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:51,000 Speaker 2: this kind of shows when we're recording this, I guess 1018 00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,680 Speaker 2: you know, Hovelin just missed the cut at the Open Championship, 1019 00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:57,560 Speaker 2: So I wouldn't be shocked if this number ends up 1020 00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:00,200 Speaker 2: drifting even maybe a couple of points further up from 1021 00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,919 Speaker 2: this twenty two to one. I really like that price though, 1022 00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:07,360 Speaker 2: and then I bet shoe banker Sharma at four hundred 1023 00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:09,920 Speaker 2: to one. I know the forum's gonna leave a lot 1024 00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,239 Speaker 2: to be desired. It's the same answer as Hovelin, but 1025 00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,080 Speaker 2: my model had a much closer to that one hundred 1026 00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,080 Speaker 2: and fifty to one range. In this four hundred to 1027 00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:20,359 Speaker 2: one price that we received very similar answers to the 1028 00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:23,439 Speaker 2: Hovelin blueprint, where a lot of the around the green 1029 00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:25,799 Speaker 2: stuff is what has been deterring him from higher end 1030 00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:29,080 Speaker 2: finishes when he ends up teeing it up. I just 1031 00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:30,640 Speaker 2: think that this is a name that when we have 1032 00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:32,719 Speaker 2: a weaker field to begin with, and I talked about 1033 00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:36,600 Speaker 2: the bottom twenty percent being lower in an average grade 1034 00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,880 Speaker 2: of what I typically get. Sharma wasn't one of those names, 1035 00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:42,160 Speaker 2: much closer to one hundred to one hundred and twenty five 1036 00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:45,000 Speaker 2: to one sort of golfer. So it's a volatile event. 1037 00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:47,360 Speaker 2: I keep using the word volatile for a reason. But 1038 00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:49,799 Speaker 2: you know, give me a long shot in Sharma, give 1039 00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:51,759 Speaker 2: me a name like Hovelin at twenty two to one, 1040 00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,000 Speaker 2: where I thought that it was a higher price. 1041 00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:54,520 Speaker 4: Than it should have been. 1042 00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:57,440 Speaker 2: Very likely that the two winner or the winners end 1043 00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:00,279 Speaker 2: up being either a Scotti or a Zander like. That's 1044 00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:02,320 Speaker 2: where the edges in my model as far as like 1045 00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,880 Speaker 2: inequity goes. When we're actually looking at the price, I 1046 00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:07,960 Speaker 2: think their numbers are reduced to a point where they're 1047 00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:09,520 Speaker 2: not bettable according to my map. 1048 00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:11,800 Speaker 3: Now, Josh, are you going to go a bit chalkier? 1049 00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:13,120 Speaker 3: Are you going to give us a flyer and a 1050 00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:14,839 Speaker 3: long shot the way Spencer just did. 1051 00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,040 Speaker 7: I'm kind of in the middle of him right there. 1052 00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:19,359 Speaker 7: I bet two guys on this. I bet Tom Kim 1053 00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:21,760 Speaker 7: and I met Alex Moran. This is the first Olympics 1054 00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:25,040 Speaker 7: where we actually had like legitimate history at of course Brazil, 1055 00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,839 Speaker 7: we had never seen the course ever. In Japan, it 1056 00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,839 Speaker 7: was fairly limited with the Japanese Tour as far as 1057 00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,120 Speaker 7: who had actually played on that course, so we had 1058 00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:35,160 Speaker 7: not a whole lot of history to go off of 1059 00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:37,360 Speaker 7: this place. We've seen twenty five times. We know what 1060 00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,239 Speaker 7: it is, and what we saw in the Riot Cup 1061 00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:42,040 Speaker 7: especially is if you hadn't played this course and you 1062 00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,560 Speaker 7: hadn't been out there a lot, you ran into a 1063 00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:46,320 Speaker 7: lot of trouble because you don't know where to miss, 1064 00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:49,000 Speaker 7: and as we've said already, on this there's a there's 1065 00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,719 Speaker 7: danger everywhere. So Tomkim came over in Europe, played it 1066 00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:56,080 Speaker 7: last year, finished fourth on the DP World Tour. It's 1067 00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,200 Speaker 7: a course that fits him perfectly. You PLoP the driver 1068 00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,720 Speaker 7: into play, hit the irons and hopefully the gets hot. 1069 00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:03,840 Speaker 7: With Alex Morn, he's one here, he's won the tournament. 1070 00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:06,160 Speaker 7: That's a big thing to look at there. He knows 1071 00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,279 Speaker 7: his way around this, he's had success here. It's going 1072 00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,399 Speaker 7: to be a happy spot for him. So I think 1073 00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,320 Speaker 7: that history on a course where we know history matters 1074 00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,239 Speaker 7: and we know that knowledge is a big asset. We've 1075 00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:19,040 Speaker 7: seen it come into play where the stars have shown 1076 00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:22,520 Speaker 7: up and had Francesco Molinari or Tommy Fleet would just 1077 00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:25,640 Speaker 7: absolutely blast him. So if Scotty comes in and he 1078 00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:27,839 Speaker 7: hasn't looked at the course, or if Victor hasn't looked 1079 00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,480 Speaker 7: at the course like we said, or if it just 1080 00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,520 Speaker 7: really depends on who's been doing the work there Xander, 1081 00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,320 Speaker 7: maybe he's been a little busy, hasn't done the research. 1082 00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:38,359 Speaker 7: Cal markwa Those guys are all going to be up there, 1083 00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:40,160 Speaker 7: but when's the last time they played it? When the 1084 00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:42,319 Speaker 7: last time they look at it these guys have So 1085 00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:44,600 Speaker 7: that's kind of where my leen is is, Like it's 1086 00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,560 Speaker 7: not always a heavy course history thing, but this type 1087 00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:49,200 Speaker 7: of tournament in this week, I think it's going to 1088 00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:51,479 Speaker 7: be a big edge for the guys who have seen 1089 00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:53,759 Speaker 7: this place five ten times, or who have had a 1090 00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,160 Speaker 7: high result like Tom Kidd has early in his career. 1091 00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:59,840 Speaker 3: With so many Olympic events potentially having an opportunity for 1092 00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:03,200 Speaker 3: record breaking performances to be set, there's a lot of 1093 00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,640 Speaker 3: prohibitive favorites. So it's nice to have some long shots 1094 00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,359 Speaker 3: that could make my entire Olympics here if one of these, 1095 00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:10,280 Speaker 3: you know, finds a way to win the gold medal. 1096 00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:13,440 Speaker 3: So I really appreciate it from both of you, Spencer Josh, 1097 00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:15,400 Speaker 3: be sure to check them out at the Action Network 1098 00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:19,399 Speaker 3: their contributors. Thanks so much, guys. Last, but not least, 1099 00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:22,160 Speaker 3: we talk men's and women's basketball. We're joined again by 1100 00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,680 Speaker 3: Brian Fonseca along with Joe Delera, who will break it 1101 00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:26,759 Speaker 3: all down for us, and once again, if you want 1102 00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:29,000 Speaker 3: their full length breakdowns, check out Brian and Joe on 1103 00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:32,680 Speaker 3: the Olympic Hoops episodes of our dedicated basketball podcasts. That's 1104 00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:37,560 Speaker 3: Buckets and Buckets WNBA available. Now take it away, boys, All. 1105 00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:40,719 Speaker 12: Right, let's get into our best bets. Brian, who is 1106 00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:44,879 Speaker 12: your best bet or your favorite to win outright for 1107 00:50:45,000 --> 00:50:46,200 Speaker 12: the Paris Olympics. 1108 00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:50,279 Speaker 10: I will preface this by saying, team USA, I think 1109 00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:54,440 Speaker 10: they're going to win the gold medal, but Europe to 1110 00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:58,680 Speaker 10: win the gold medal as a continent plus five hundred 1111 00:50:58,800 --> 00:50:59,760 Speaker 10: out there on the market. 1112 00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,680 Speaker 12: I like it, Honestly, I'm with you there too. I 1113 00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:04,840 Speaker 12: like Europe plus five hundred. I think that there's a 1114 00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:08,000 Speaker 12: lot of value on that number. You're getting so many 1115 00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:11,479 Speaker 12: different teams, and it look the best that we're seeing 1116 00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:13,560 Speaker 12: the US in the market is as low as minus 1117 00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:17,680 Speaker 12: four hundred. There's some minus thousands out there. This number, 1118 00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:20,279 Speaker 12: this number seems to be a little bit, a little 1119 00:51:20,320 --> 00:51:23,440 Speaker 12: bit crazy. Brian, talk to me a little bit about 1120 00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:26,280 Speaker 12: this bet. Why do you like Europe as a continent 1121 00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:26,640 Speaker 12: to win? 1122 00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:30,720 Speaker 10: So with Europe you're getting almost half the field. Okay, 1123 00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,400 Speaker 10: you're getting five out of twelve teams. You're getting France. 1124 00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:38,120 Speaker 10: Who's the host who after a miserable World Cup performance, 1125 00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:39,799 Speaker 10: Like I thought they were good enough to win the 1126 00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:42,879 Speaker 10: entire World Cup and they were like the first team eliminated. 1127 00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:46,800 Speaker 10: They got smacked by Canada immediately and obviously they lost 1128 00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:49,600 Speaker 10: to Latvia and it was just bad, bad news. So 1129 00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:51,640 Speaker 10: they're looking to rebound from that. They're the host now 1130 00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:55,320 Speaker 10: they've since added I don't know, Victor wi Manyama. You 1131 00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:58,560 Speaker 10: may have heard of him. He's maybe a top ten 1132 00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:03,040 Speaker 10: player in the world already, you know, Like they just 1133 00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:07,440 Speaker 10: happen to advoctate Yama. Also below, Kulabali uh to their 1134 00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:10,680 Speaker 10: roster and Bela. Kulabali is another one of the best 1135 00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:14,480 Speaker 10: rookies from the NBA last season. In what you know 1136 00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:18,600 Speaker 10: is a weird situation in Washington, but Kulabali no less 1137 00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:21,359 Speaker 10: and Frank me Lakina is also back. 1138 00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:22,680 Speaker 1: He was not in the World Cup roster. 1139 00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,799 Speaker 10: He's back that you know, Nick fans may roll their 1140 00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,400 Speaker 10: eyes at that, but he is a consequential defensive player, 1141 00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:32,440 Speaker 10: like he's legitimately good. Still have Nicholas with whom Evan Fortier, 1142 00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:33,560 Speaker 10: Nando de Colo, Ride go. 1143 00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:34,120 Speaker 1: Bert, etcetera. 1144 00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:38,200 Speaker 10: Yeah, you also have Serbia who has the best player 1145 00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:41,000 Speaker 10: in the world, Nikola Jokic, adding him to a team 1146 00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:44,920 Speaker 10: that finished second in the World Cup. Michic is also 1147 00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:47,000 Speaker 10: going to be on this team as well, it appears, 1148 00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,879 Speaker 10: and then Greece is Jiannis. Germany won the World Cup, 1149 00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:52,479 Speaker 10: and then Spain has the best European pedigree out. 1150 00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:52,879 Speaker 1: Of all of them. 1151 00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,200 Speaker 10: We kind of think Spain is a touch overrated, but 1152 00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:58,640 Speaker 10: at the same time, like these are the teams you're getting, 1153 00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:02,160 Speaker 10: and the question is do you want Europe at plus 1154 00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:04,760 Speaker 10: five hundred or do you want the field at plus 1155 00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:07,799 Speaker 10: two ninety, which adds in in terms of real contenders 1156 00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:10,759 Speaker 10: Canada and Australia with respect to Japan. 1157 00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:12,280 Speaker 1: Puerto Rico, South so down in Brazil etctera. 1158 00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:16,960 Speaker 10: But to me, I just take Europe at a much 1159 00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:20,399 Speaker 10: like almost double the price, plus five hundred versus plus 1160 00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:24,000 Speaker 10: two ninety, and you know, I would short Canada and 1161 00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:26,000 Speaker 10: Australia and doing that two teams that I think are 1162 00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:29,319 Speaker 10: very good. But in terms of a long shot bet, 1163 00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:31,480 Speaker 10: which is mainly what I'm looking at for right now 1164 00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:34,919 Speaker 10: because of how heavily favored US is, I'm mainly looking 1165 00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:36,840 Speaker 10: at long shot bets. So plus five hundred is a 1166 00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,200 Speaker 10: little bit of a sprinkle, not a full unit. Obviously, 1167 00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:42,160 Speaker 10: this is something that I could definitely live with. Yeah, 1168 00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:43,200 Speaker 10: I'm with you there too. 1169 00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:45,560 Speaker 12: I think the price for the United States would probably 1170 00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:48,440 Speaker 12: be like closer to minus two hundred, maybe minus two fifty, 1171 00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:51,399 Speaker 12: So maybe if there's an opportunity to buy into that, 1172 00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:54,160 Speaker 12: I still feel like I could having a ticket at 1173 00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:56,520 Speaker 12: like five to one. On Europe, I know that a 1174 00:53:56,520 --> 00:53:58,439 Speaker 12: lot of these European teams they're gonna go, They're gonna 1175 00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:02,400 Speaker 12: get through for the most part, whereas you know, adding 1176 00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,880 Speaker 12: in the field, like I don't. I don't feel like 1177 00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:07,120 Speaker 12: I think that Canada should get through. But Canada is 1178 00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:08,880 Speaker 12: in the group of death. Australia is also in the 1179 00:54:08,880 --> 00:54:11,440 Speaker 12: group of death, so there's a possibility that one of 1180 00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:13,480 Speaker 12: those teams doesn't really even make it through. 1181 00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:15,239 Speaker 1: So I'm with you. 1182 00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:18,759 Speaker 12: I think that the bet on Europe as a as 1183 00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:20,920 Speaker 12: a continent is the best bet right now to win 1184 00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,520 Speaker 12: the gold. There might be a time where we're able 1185 00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:26,480 Speaker 12: to back the United States on either an individual game basis, 1186 00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,959 Speaker 12: or we can bet them maybe they lose a game 1187 00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:31,080 Speaker 12: and then we can get a really good number on them. 1188 00:54:31,480 --> 00:54:33,759 Speaker 12: So be on the lookout for if we add a 1189 00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:37,320 Speaker 12: United States position. But I think overall, while we expect 1190 00:54:37,360 --> 00:54:39,560 Speaker 12: the United States to win, it's going to be a 1191 00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,880 Speaker 12: little bit of a different scenario for what we're betting 1192 00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:46,799 Speaker 12: on in terms of betting into the value. Brian, what's 1193 00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,840 Speaker 12: your favorite outright for the women's bracket overall? 1194 00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:52,880 Speaker 10: This is one that we both we were like, thank 1195 00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:57,880 Speaker 10: god this hit right before we started. A Wilson, Yes, 1196 00:54:57,960 --> 00:55:01,480 Speaker 10: Asia Wilson to lead Team USA scoring at plus two 1197 00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:03,280 Speaker 10: seventy five, juicy number. 1198 00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:05,959 Speaker 1: We love this bet. 1199 00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:09,360 Speaker 10: And Brianna Stewart second and plus three twenty five for 1200 00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,960 Speaker 10: good reason, you know, reasonably close. But Ajia Wilson led 1201 00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,640 Speaker 10: Team USA and scoring in the World Cup a couple 1202 00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:17,680 Speaker 10: of years ago and led them in scoring, tied with 1203 00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:19,839 Speaker 10: Britney Grinder, but led them in scoring in the last 1204 00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:20,600 Speaker 10: Olympics as well. 1205 00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:22,440 Speaker 1: Britney Grinder is more. 1206 00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:24,359 Speaker 10: Than likely coming off the bench for this team, as 1207 00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:27,319 Speaker 10: we saw syndication by you know, the All Star Game, 1208 00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:29,200 Speaker 10: but also at the stage of her career that she's 1209 00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:31,720 Speaker 10: at probably doesn't need to be starting at this point anyway. 1210 00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,160 Speaker 10: Ajia Wilson is just the best player on the best 1211 00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:39,520 Speaker 10: team who is going to be relied on in crunch 1212 00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:43,600 Speaker 10: time and from those other international competitions, this is a 1213 00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:45,759 Speaker 10: big thing even this year, and she's looking like she's 1214 00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:49,759 Speaker 10: gonna win MVP again in the WNBA. She's continuing to 1215 00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:52,600 Speaker 10: add to her game. The toolbox is getting a little 1216 00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:55,360 Speaker 10: bit deeper, the range is getting a little bit longer. Like, 1217 00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:58,319 Speaker 10: Ajia Wilson is just a monster, and I think that 1218 00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:00,480 Speaker 10: she should lead this team in score. So just the 1219 00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:01,439 Speaker 10: bet that we bet the most. 1220 00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:04,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think I'm with this too. 1221 00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:07,240 Speaker 12: I love this bet. And part of why I settled 1222 00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:10,840 Speaker 12: on Asia as opposed to Stuart was when we looked 1223 00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:13,759 Speaker 12: at back a little bit and obviously things change, so 1224 00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:16,280 Speaker 12: but when you looked at the last time these players 1225 00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:20,200 Speaker 12: were playing together on the international stage, right, Asia had 1226 00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,800 Speaker 12: a significantly higher floor. She scored at least fourteen points 1227 00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:27,360 Speaker 12: in every single game of that tournament, of that international tournament, 1228 00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:29,759 Speaker 12: Whereas if we looked at Stuart, she had a couple 1229 00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:31,560 Speaker 12: of games at two. She had one game of two, 1230 00:56:31,640 --> 00:56:33,640 Speaker 12: another game at eight, another game at nine, another game 1231 00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:36,160 Speaker 12: at eleven, So there's a little bit more variability even 1232 00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:38,040 Speaker 12: though she had a higher ceiling with a twenty two 1233 00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:38,640 Speaker 12: point game. 1234 00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:40,879 Speaker 3: When additionally, like when. 1235 00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:45,240 Speaker 12: We look at Asia, Asia has gotten so much better. 1236 00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:47,640 Speaker 12: I feel like it's crazy to even say that, right, 1237 00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:51,400 Speaker 12: but the leap that she's taken, even from even like 1238 00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:55,160 Speaker 12: last year is incredible. Last year she averaged twenty two 1239 00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:57,560 Speaker 12: point eight points per game. The season before that, she 1240 00:56:57,600 --> 00:57:00,280 Speaker 12: was at nineteen point five. This year she's at twenty 1241 00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:04,520 Speaker 12: seven point two. That is a monster jump, right, nobody's 1242 00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:07,120 Speaker 12: even really close to twenty seven point two right now 1243 00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:09,120 Speaker 12: in the W Like, we're not seeing a ton of 1244 00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:12,000 Speaker 12: like a ton of scoring efforts like that, especially at 1245 00:57:12,040 --> 00:57:15,400 Speaker 12: such a consistent level. It's not like she's being floated 1246 00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:18,240 Speaker 12: by seventy point games or anything like that. Like all 1247 00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:22,280 Speaker 12: these games are in that twenty seven point ballpark. So obviously, 1248 00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:24,560 Speaker 12: maybe she doesn't need to play thirty four minutes a 1249 00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:27,960 Speaker 12: game for Team USA in this type of format. But 1250 00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:29,960 Speaker 12: at the end of the day, she's gonna be a 1251 00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:32,880 Speaker 12: big reason why they do blow teams out, and she's 1252 00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:33,840 Speaker 12: gonna have to put up points. 1253 00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:34,880 Speaker 1: She's gonna have to score. 1254 00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:39,840 Speaker 12: So my only concern with this, Brian was, if Team 1255 00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:43,800 Speaker 12: USA is destroying teams, is it possible that maybe somebody 1256 00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:45,800 Speaker 12: like in the bench unit kind of comes in and 1257 00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:47,640 Speaker 12: takes over a little bit too much of this role 1258 00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:49,960 Speaker 12: or like or is it kind of what I said, 1259 00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:52,600 Speaker 12: They're not gonna be blowing teams out unless she's putting 1260 00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:53,080 Speaker 12: up points. 1261 00:57:53,800 --> 00:57:56,720 Speaker 10: One book in particular, I think has it right where Okay, 1262 00:57:56,720 --> 00:58:00,320 Speaker 10: if it's not gonna be Asia Wilson or Breonna Stewart, 1263 00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:03,560 Speaker 10: the next three players are all guards that can get hot, 1264 00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:08,320 Speaker 10: Sabrino Escu, Jewel Lloyd, Kelsey Plump, And I feel like 1265 00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:11,280 Speaker 10: that's exactly where I would look. All of them at 1266 00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:13,600 Speaker 10: one particular book, well two of them at one particular book, 1267 00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:15,919 Speaker 10: Lloyd and Plump plus one thousand each. 1268 00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:18,360 Speaker 1: Unescu is then that plus five. 1269 00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:21,000 Speaker 10: Hundred five fifty plus six hundred range a little bit 1270 00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:23,800 Speaker 10: shorter there, So I'd probably look straight to one of 1271 00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:27,280 Speaker 10: those three, maybe even Plumb or Lloyd just for more 1272 00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:30,640 Speaker 10: value and you know, if you're going by what we 1273 00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:34,200 Speaker 10: just saw, all three could play pretty significant roles, is 1274 00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:37,959 Speaker 10: what we know. So Sabrino and Escu played twenty something 1275 00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:40,600 Speaker 10: minutes in that game. In the All Star Game as well, 1276 00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:45,080 Speaker 10: Jewel Lloyd was you know, obviously starting. So if you 1277 00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:48,400 Speaker 10: look at particularly like how this is going to going 1278 00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:50,920 Speaker 10: to go like and if you want to get just 1279 00:58:51,000 --> 00:58:54,080 Speaker 10: more value there, that's where I would look because of 1280 00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:56,960 Speaker 10: the shooting in particular and the creativity, especially for like 1281 00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:59,640 Speaker 10: a Jewel Lloyd who can just get hers uh and 1282 00:58:59,680 --> 00:59:01,960 Speaker 10: she'll be able to get hers throughout the Olympics, But 1283 00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:03,840 Speaker 10: it's probably gonna. 1284 00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:04,400 Speaker 1: Be Agia Wilson. 1285 00:59:04,560 --> 00:59:06,480 Speaker 10: All that said, if you want to take a long 1286 00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:08,600 Speaker 10: shot stab though, look at one of the guards who 1287 00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:12,080 Speaker 10: can get hot absolutely even longer odds like Britney Griner 1288 00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:14,840 Speaker 10: has done this before as we mentioned, but plus fourteen hundred, 1289 00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:17,360 Speaker 10: I don't think at this stage that's something that's going 1290 00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:17,840 Speaker 10: to happen. 1291 00:59:18,080 --> 00:59:18,840 Speaker 1: And then when you're. 1292 00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:21,200 Speaker 10: Going down the line, like it's probably not going to 1293 00:59:21,200 --> 00:59:23,280 Speaker 10: be Diana Tarassi at the stage's probably not going to 1294 00:59:23,320 --> 00:59:25,240 Speaker 10: be a list of Thomas who has the longest odds 1295 00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:27,919 Speaker 10: one particular book at plus five thousand. I think even 1296 00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:30,720 Speaker 10: larger than that at another But that's that's sort of 1297 00:59:30,720 --> 00:59:31,400 Speaker 10: what it is to me. 1298 00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,680 Speaker 1: It's Agia Wilson, and if you want to look at long. 1299 00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:36,439 Speaker 10: Shots, you have to look at you know, Sabrina and Escu, 1300 00:59:36,560 --> 00:59:38,120 Speaker 10: Kelsey Club, Jewel Lloyd. 1301 00:59:38,640 --> 00:59:38,880 Speaker 7: Yeah. 1302 00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:41,280 Speaker 12: I think the only thing you could do is based 1303 00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:43,040 Speaker 12: on the way the odds market kind of is the 1304 00:59:43,120 --> 00:59:46,240 Speaker 12: United States toughest game might be their first one against Japan, 1305 00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:48,560 Speaker 12: at least in the group. That might be the game 1306 00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:50,840 Speaker 12: that we see Asia really go out there, show out. 1307 00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:53,520 Speaker 12: And at that point, if she builds up a little 1308 00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:55,520 Speaker 12: bit of a lead, if they leave these markets up 1309 00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:58,200 Speaker 12: throughout the tournament throughout the Olympics, maybe then it's an 1310 00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:00,640 Speaker 12: opportunity to kind of buy somebody else. But at the 1311 01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:04,400 Speaker 12: same time, as the tournament progresses, the matchup should get 1312 01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:07,360 Speaker 12: progressively more difficult, meaning that we see more minutes from 1313 01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:09,080 Speaker 12: the top players on each team. 1314 01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:12,320 Speaker 10: The only issue is, like with Japan, is because I 1315 01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:14,920 Speaker 10: actually think Belgium could be a tougher matchup just. 1316 01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:18,320 Speaker 1: Because Japan is small fair there's the potential that Asia 1317 01:00:18,360 --> 01:00:19,640 Speaker 1: Wilson just bullies her. 1318 01:00:20,200 --> 01:00:22,720 Speaker 10: So we could look up and she has twenty in 1319 01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:25,160 Speaker 10: the first half. In all likelihood, it could be one 1320 01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:26,320 Speaker 10: of those type of games. 1321 01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:29,440 Speaker 3: One hundred percent and that's a wrap. As a reminder, 1322 01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:31,680 Speaker 3: you can see the list of every event we've covered today, 1323 01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:34,520 Speaker 3: along with their time codes by checking out this episode's 1324 01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:36,800 Speaker 3: description and on behalf of all of us here at 1325 01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:39,960 Speaker 3: Action Network. Please enjoy all the Olympic action. I'm your host, 1326 01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:42,160 Speaker 3: Mike Calbreys, and I'm wishing you the very best of 1327 01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:50,120 Speaker 3: luck in Paris, Tahiti and beyond. Action Network reminds you 1328 01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:52,040 Speaker 3: please gambler responsibly. 1329 01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:55,400 Speaker 9: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 1330 01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:58,200 Speaker 9: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 1331 01:00:58,240 --> 01:00:59,080 Speaker 9: hundred Gambler