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Speaker 1: it before it's gone. Hi, everybody, and welcome in sharp
Speaker 1: or Square with Chad Milman. A lot of games to discuss.
Speaker 1: I give him my six or seven that interests me.
Speaker 1: Then he gives me a couple I haven't thought about,
Speaker 1: and we'll get into that. You know, as I was
Speaker 1: watching the game tonight, obviously Saquon Barkley's out, Andrew Thomas
Speaker 1: left tackle is out for the Giants, Brandon Au star
Speaker 1: receiver was out for San Francisco. But I mean, this
Speaker 1: was a ten and a half point spread. It is interesting,
Speaker 1: and I don't want to do recency bias right and
Speaker 1: be a victim of that. But so this game was
Speaker 1: ten and a half. Houston at the Jags, Jags favored
Speaker 1: by nine and a half, Dallas at Arizona, Dallas favorite
Speaker 1: by twelve and a half, Chicago at Kansas City, Kansas
Speaker 1: City favored by twelve and a half. Those are like
Speaker 1: college numbers, and I think there's always been double digit spreads,
Speaker 1: but for double digit spreads this early in the season,
Speaker 1: it shows you the gap and quarterback play and the
Speaker 1: significance of quarterback play, you know, Trevor Lawrence against c. J. Stroud,
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott against Josh Dobbs, justin fields against Patrick Mahomes so,
Speaker 1: and I think that's just where the league is. I
Speaker 1: had said this years ago, my only concern about the
Speaker 1: NFL once they cleaned up the hitting, because of the
Speaker 1: you know the CTE, the nine hundred million or so
Speaker 1: dollar check the NFL wrote. They cleaned it up. You know,
Speaker 1: we have concussion concerns, but it's the safest the sport
Speaker 1: has been in my life. Also, the practices, there's less hitting,
Speaker 1: fewer players, star players play in the preseason. I think
Speaker 1: they're going to cut the preseason down to two games.
Speaker 1: And so you know, if you generally look at the
Speaker 1: end of the year, the final four teams, they are
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly healthy. Very few players are lost for the season.
Speaker 1: Though it happens Trayvon Diggs for the Cowboys at practice.
Speaker 1: That's just a gutting loss for Dallas. But as a
Speaker 1: sport becomes more quarterback centric, you're going to have these
Speaker 1: wider gaps in point spreads. But you know, one of
Speaker 1: the things I was thinking about this today driving home
Speaker 1: from work is that, you know, the NFL has certain
Speaker 1: advantages on other sports. Let's take baseball. Well, there's one
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty two baseball games seventeen football games. So
Speaker 1: there's always been an urgency advantage to the NFL. But
Speaker 1: as we're a more distracted country, why has the gap
Speaker 1: in baseball and football The ratings and interest. Why is
Speaker 1: it so great now? And I think a lot of
Speaker 1: it is. And I've noticed this in terms of consumption.
Speaker 1: People tend to read headlines, they don't read entire stories.
Speaker 1: We're less patient because of our iPhones. We want things immediately.
Speaker 1: We want big headlines, big stars, big brands, and people
Speaker 1: just don't have the patients. And you have to have
Speaker 1: patients to watch baseball. And I think we're a less
Speaker 1: patient nation. But I also think the reality is the
Speaker 1: NFL has always thought of itself as a football show
Speaker 1: at a TV show and baseball. I'll give you an example.
Speaker 1: You know, in analytics, if you can get a two
Speaker 1: percent three percent edge in baseball, you just do it.
Speaker 1: You don't think about how it hurts the TV product
Speaker 1: that it takes a star pitcher out of a game.
Speaker 1: Can you imagine in the NFL, if you had a
Speaker 1: one percent advantage over the course of a year in
Speaker 1: getting two more first downs per game and half a
Speaker 1: point a game over the season, if it was determined
Speaker 1: that you pull your starting quarterback with five minutes to
Speaker 1: go in the third quarter, that you'd on the a
Speaker 1: season average one and a half more first downs a
Speaker 1: game and half a point you say to yourself, oh,
Speaker 1: you would do it. No, you wouldn't. In football. Part
Speaker 1: of the drama and the fun in football and part
Speaker 1: of what's been lost in baseball and baseball you go
Speaker 1: to the bullpen. If the analytics say pull the starter,
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if he's pitching, well, it's six and
Speaker 1: a third, it's arm fatigue, he's out. And in football,
Speaker 1: you just play a star quarterback even if he's struggling, right,
Speaker 1: you just do. And I think the sport of football,
Speaker 1: you know, tonight's a prime example of you know, you
Speaker 1: had to mismatch giants, row a lot, a lot of
Speaker 1: injuries to deal with, beat up a little bit. This
Speaker 1: was not your classic star quarterback, average quarterback. San Francisco
Speaker 1: is really the only team in the league that is
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl contender and doesn't have what's considered like
Speaker 1: a high end quarterback. But you know, as I was
Speaker 1: thinking about this today, is I watched this game until
Speaker 1: the very end tonight. Why it wasn't competitive? And I
Speaker 1: think a lot of it is you play your stars.
Speaker 1: You play your star if they're healthy, they play. You
Speaker 1: don't pull them out because of analytics. You don't pull
Speaker 1: them out because of weather. You don't rest people just
Speaker 1: because you know. You watch this game tonight and Christian
Speaker 1: McCaffrey is running that football in the fourth quarter and
Speaker 1: you know over the course of the season he doesn't
Speaker 1: need those extra six seven carries. And Deebo Samuel's getting
Speaker 1: hammered and George Kittle is getting hammered until the very end.
Speaker 1: And I think, like the NFL, even though this was
Speaker 1: a ten and a half point spread, it really never
Speaker 1: felt in the second half like it was going to
Speaker 1: be competitive. You're just waiting to see if the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers hold on and cover right. But I think
Speaker 1: that one of the great things about football is not
Speaker 1: only the urgency, but it is a great television show,
Speaker 1: and the stars play beginning, middle end, doesn't have no
Speaker 1: matter how much you lead by Kittle's getting the ball,
Speaker 1: Deebo's getting the ball, Mcaffy's getting the ball, rock Perty's
Speaker 1: going to stay in the game. And I find it
Speaker 1: to be just a really good television product. That's not
Speaker 1: to say that baseball doesn't have its moments, but you
Speaker 1: pull starting pitchers because of pitch counts, even if they're
Speaker 1: pitching well. And tonight is like the power of the
Speaker 1: NFL to me, not really competitive. Ten and a half
Speaker 1: points spread. I mean at halftime it felt like I mean,
Speaker 1: the Giants could not run the football. Daniel Jones trailing
Speaker 1: without one of his better young receivers either available or
Speaker 1: playing many snaps, no chance to win that game. But
Speaker 1: it held me. And that's the power of football, you know.
Speaker 1: I think there's not a ton of takeaway from a
Speaker 1: game like this. Brock Pretty. You know, it was obvious
Speaker 1: the game plan puts some pressure on him. But you know,
Speaker 1: what he does is what people have complained about about
Speaker 1: justin fields. He sees it and lets it rip. A
Speaker 1: couple of times they put like ten guys in the
Speaker 1: box near the gold line and he just got rid
Speaker 1: of it. He didn't hold it. He sees it, lets
Speaker 1: it go, and he delivers it accurately. And that's just
Speaker 1: a big component of this game. So I think brock Pretty,
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody watches him and thinks big arm,
Speaker 1: great athlete. But there are these systems. Miami and San
Speaker 1: Francisco are the two greatest examples. Get that ball, see
Speaker 1: the field and let it go. And if there's pressure
Speaker 1: live for another down, let it go. And I think
Speaker 1: Tua and Brock Purty are very similar that way. Not
Speaker 1: big physical presence, not big arms, not wildly mobile. But
Speaker 1: those coaches, Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan, see what they
Speaker 1: are great distributors. You know, I was always a Chris
Speaker 1: Paul fan. The point God. I always liked distribution, first,
Speaker 1: scoring second. Chris could give you twenty eight points. He
Speaker 1: could go on a streak, but Chris would defend, Chris
Speaker 1: would lead, Chris would set up others a little fall away,
Speaker 1: you know, behind the back movie does with one hand
Speaker 1: and gets that little fallaway at the free throw angle.
Speaker 1: And I think that's what brought Purty into a do
Speaker 1: now both have incredible weapons. I said this last week,
Speaker 1: I sign up for a Dolphins forty nine Ers super
Speaker 1: Bowl today, I would take it to the bank. I
Speaker 1: think there's only three teams in the league right now
Speaker 1: that are really playing great football. San Francisco, Miami in Dallas.
Speaker 1: Everybody else. Philadelphia has got a little bit of an
Speaker 1: identity crisis. Baltimore's a little banged up. I think everybody
Speaker 1: else is just Buffalo. They got to clean up their
Speaker 1: offense and please they have to establish a run game. Consistently.
Speaker 1: I think Kansas City's scary because they're not playing well
Speaker 1: and they still went down to Jacksonville and hammered the Jags,
Speaker 1: and that defense is going to be the best Patrick
Speaker 1: Malmes has had as a pro. So tonight didn't take
Speaker 1: much out of it. But the fact that that game
Speaker 1: held me I was never born. I was totally into it.
Speaker 1: There's also the fantasy football component to it, but stars
Speaker 1: play to the end. Nobody's pulling a starter, and that's
Speaker 1: what I love about this game. We're back with another
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Speaker 1: Download the app now, sign up code Colin. That's me
Speaker 1: Coli in. New customers bet just five bucks and get
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Speaker 1: an official sports betting partner of the NFL, with the
Speaker 1: code Colin. The Crown is yours time for another edition
Speaker 1: of Sharp or Square. Chad Milman CEEO of the Action Network.
Speaker 1: All odds provided by DraftKings Rocky Start. But you know what,
Speaker 1: I've had a lot of turbulent flights that land perfectly,
Speaker 1: so I don't care. I'm not bothered by it.
Speaker 2: Colin I said last week, you wear it well. The pressure,
Speaker 2: it doesn't.
Speaker 1: Get to you.
Speaker 2: You wake up in the morning and you're like, this
Speaker 2: is a day for opportunity.
Speaker 1: So my first one is Pittsburgh plus two and a
Speaker 1: half at Vegas. Here's why. So there's a lot of
Speaker 1: elements of Pittsburgh I really like, and then there's one
Speaker 1: offensive line play Kenny Pickett. I think he's regressed, but
Speaker 1: I do think there's a sense of urgency. Literally, his
Speaker 1: coordinator offensive coordinator for the Steelers boot at the Stadium
Speaker 1: ripped unmercifully. Mike Tomlin addressed it. I do think you'll
Speaker 1: get a fairly inspired effort. I do feel that facing
Speaker 1: Cleveland's defense, which is really good, and the Niners defense,
Speaker 1: which is spectacular to the Raiders defense feels like a
Speaker 1: slumber party. I'm going to take the points, Pittsburgh overall,
Speaker 1: good roster. I think this is a I think a
Speaker 1: lot of Kenny Pickett's issues. He may have faced two
Speaker 1: of the top four defenses in the league. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take Pittsburgh plus the point Sharper square.
Speaker 2: I feel like everything I say right now is fraught
Speaker 2: with tension because the stress levels are so high about
Speaker 2: turning around the blazing five, I tell you right now,
Speaker 2: not my stress, oh high. There's so much pressure right now.
Speaker 2: I need you to be listening to me. The wise
Speaker 2: guys are all over the Raiders here, Colin. Like this
Speaker 2: line opened at Raiders plus one and a half on
Speaker 2: Sunday night, and immediately even before the Monday night game
Speaker 2: with the Browns, the wise guys were betting this game.
Speaker 2: It's now Raiders minus two and a half. And I
Speaker 2: can give you a bunch of trends that would actually say,
Speaker 2: you know what, in this spot, at this number, you
Speaker 2: kind of do want to back the Steelers.
Speaker 1: But here's the problem.
Speaker 2: We can all agree that the Chicago Bears right now
Speaker 2: are the biggest train wreck of a team in the
Speaker 2: NFL the past twenty four to forty eight hours have
Speaker 2: not been kind to the Chicago Bears. They've had three
Speaker 2: red zone trips in the first two weeks of the season.
Speaker 2: There's one team that has made fewer red zone trips
Speaker 2: than the Chicago Bears. It is the Pittsburgh Steelers. This
Speaker 2: rush defense going to the other side of the ball
Speaker 2: is not very good right now. We saw it with
Speaker 2: Nick Chubb before he was out. He was on his
Speaker 2: way to one hundred yards in the first half. His
Speaker 2: backup broke a big run had more than one hundred yards.
Speaker 2: So I'm a little concerned about this Steelers defense right
Speaker 2: now as well. So the wise guys are on the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I like the Chargers plus one at Minnesota for a
Speaker 1: lot of reasons. One, I think they're a much better team.
Speaker 1: Quarterback advantage now between Mike McDaniel and Vrabel, huge coaching
Speaker 1: age over Brandon Staley. I don't feel it's quite that
Speaker 1: much of a disadvantage this week. I think Vrabel's one
Speaker 1: of the top five coaches in the league, and I
Speaker 1: think McDaniel, maybe along with Kyle Shanahana McVeigh and he Reid,
Speaker 1: the smartest guy. You know that the IVY League. Guy,
Speaker 1: I think this is the entire organization. This is the
Speaker 1: biggest Charger game outside of a playoff game that I remember.
Speaker 1: This is a better team with a better roster. And
Speaker 1: the truth is the Vikings run game with cam Akers
Speaker 1: could be good. It's not. Now it'll become very Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins dependent. I'm going to take the Chargers plus the
Speaker 1: point sharper square.
Speaker 2: This is a total pro jo game. And what I
Speaker 2: mean by that is the higher number of bets are
Speaker 2: on the Chargers. When you have a higher number of bets,
Speaker 2: that's usually the square side. That's the public, the money,
Speaker 2: the professionals, the wise guys are on the Vikings. And
Speaker 2: so you're kind of be in square here. But I
Speaker 2: will tell you there's no model that anyone is running
Speaker 2: that says, oh yeah, there's an advantage with Minnesota. Both
Speaker 2: teams are owing to Both teams have shown some promise
Speaker 2: and some really bad performances. I would say that with
Speaker 2: the Vikings, Kirk Cousins has been on fire right. He
Speaker 2: was amazing in both of his games. His completion percentage
Speaker 2: is amongst the top three in the NFL. His total yards,
Speaker 2: his QB rating his yards per attempt. He's having a
Speaker 2: great year, Justin Herbert might have one of the best
Speaker 2: rosters in the NFL offensively, and they cannot win. Remember
Speaker 2: last week we had a conversation. You were talking about
Speaker 2: the Chargers against the Titans, and I'm like, look, I
Speaker 2: know everything you're going to say about the Titans, but
Speaker 2: they have Mike Rabel, a better coach, like you just said,
Speaker 2: and it's a coaching mismatch with Brandon Staley. I beg
Speaker 2: you to take the Titans. All of that is still true, right,
Speaker 2: Brandon Staley is just not a very good NFL head coach,
Speaker 2: and he doesn't imbue his team with confidence, and that
Speaker 2: leads to miscues, that leads to bad play calling. So
Speaker 2: to me, I'm either playing Minnesota or I'm passing. At
Speaker 2: this point, I haven't done. I bet on Minnesota. But
Speaker 2: the wise guys do not like the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Here all right, Buffalo at Washington. What's the current line?
Speaker 1: All of our odds provided by DraftKings five and a
Speaker 1: half ish.
Speaker 2: The last I saw was six.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna tell a why. Like Washington, I know
Speaker 1: I'm a square. The weather that is forming it could
Speaker 1: be a mess. A mess. Every year there is a
Speaker 1: team that we look up about week six or seven
Speaker 1: and go, they're kind of good. So Sam Howell last
Speaker 1: three starts, ninety five passer rating, two good receivers, excellent back,
Speaker 1: defensive fronts. The strength of the team. Buffalo still can't run,
Speaker 1: can struggle to protect the quarterback. Don't overview the Raider win.
Speaker 1: Raiders are pretty average team, better at home. Average team.
Speaker 1: I think Washington is the New York Giants of last
Speaker 1: year that you look up and go, it's kind of
Speaker 1: a good team with some really good players. They've drafted.
Speaker 1: We think of Dan Snyder, we think hot mess. They've
Speaker 1: done a pretty good job in the draft. I think
Speaker 1: I would take Washington in really sloppy weather, in the
Speaker 1: points Sharper square totally sharp.
Speaker 2: Wise guys are on the commite and the line actually
Speaker 2: at DraftKings right now six and a half. It's been
Speaker 2: basically in that six six and a half range. Honestly
Speaker 2: since before Week two that was the look aheadline was
Speaker 2: Buffalo minus six. The Wise guys are on it. I
Speaker 2: think they too feel like Sam Howell might be a player.
Speaker 2: He's made some throws, he's stuck around the game plan.
Speaker 1: Hey, last week go ahead. Greg Cosell told me today,
Speaker 1: I said, I comped him with Baker Mayfield. He said, Oh,
Speaker 1: he's more athletic, and really when he plants and throws,
Speaker 1: has a stronger arm. Baker Mayfield was a number one pick. Like, yes,
Speaker 1: Sam can play a little.
Speaker 2: He's very confident. Right. There was a throw last weekend
Speaker 2: where he had a check down right in front of
Speaker 2: him to the running back and instead he launched it
Speaker 2: to Terry McLaurin in the end zone. And he knew
Speaker 2: he was throwing into coverage, but he trusted his receiver,
Speaker 2: he trusted his placement, and he got the ball into
Speaker 2: the end zone and they ended up winning that game.
Speaker 2: And you've also seen like what Eric the Enemy has
Speaker 2: done with that team, that game plan in the second half,
Speaker 2: a lot of them was throwing screenings and putting Howell
Speaker 2: in a position to succeed, and then the Broncos not
Speaker 2: being able to make defensive adjustments. And so I think
Speaker 2: the wise guys are starting to believe in Sam Howell.
Speaker 2: And I do think the weather, look it can be
Speaker 2: you know, tropical rain up and down the East coast,
Speaker 2: So I do think that's playing a factor.
Speaker 1: So I am loath to take big numbers. I don't
Speaker 1: like to, I've never liked to. But Kansas City's defense
Speaker 1: is really good getting better. Young defenses are prone to this.
Speaker 1: Chicago's had a noisy, messy week. We have moved to
Speaker 1: stage five of failing quarterbacks blame. It gets really ugly.
Speaker 1: There's coaching issues, coordinator quits, everybody's finger pointing. So Kansas
Speaker 1: City has played really two poor games as they try
Speaker 1: to get their receiving core right, and could have won
Speaker 1: both and did win one over good Jacksonville team. I
Speaker 1: hate big numbers, but if there's a game that looks
Speaker 1: like thirty to seven, like there's one every couple weeks,
Speaker 1: I think I would take the Chiefs minus twelve and
Speaker 1: a half. And I know it's square, but I feel
Speaker 1: comfortable with it sharper square.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, of course it's square, but I can't say
Speaker 2: it's square in that like I'm just checking the numbers
Speaker 2: here to make sure how to make sure of how
Speaker 2: square it really is. I can't say that it's square, like, Okay,
Speaker 2: the wise guys are all jumping on the Bears right now.
Speaker 2: They're not. I think a lot of people are concerned
Speaker 2: about the Bears, and normally they would they would jump
Speaker 2: all over the Bears at plus twelve and a half
Speaker 2: because it's such a big number. In look throughout his career.
Speaker 2: You put Patrick Mahomes in this kind of situation and
Speaker 2: he does not cover because the numbers for Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: as a favorite are always so big, and the bigger
Speaker 2: the number, the harder it is to cover. Right now,
Speaker 2: seventy two percent of the bets about out sixty percent
Speaker 2: of the money. So what I will tell you is
Speaker 2: that while not all of the money a sort of
Speaker 2: ratio of more money than tickets on the Bears, there
Speaker 2: is enough money on the Bears to make me think
Speaker 2: there's some wise guy syndicates that are playing the Bears
Speaker 2: because the number is so big. But you're not wrong
Speaker 2: about the Bears. Like yesterday, you know, I'm from Chicago,
Speaker 2: and immediately when the news about the defensive coordinator resigning
Speaker 2: came up, I was on a tex chain with my buddies,
Speaker 2: even though I was in a very important business meeting,
Speaker 2: and we were all sort of apoplectic about it. And
Speaker 2: then Nathan Peterman was cut and my immediate response was,
Speaker 2: oh my god. The Bears are in such bad shape
Speaker 2: that they decided cutting Nathan Peterman would be the perfect
Speaker 2: smoke screen to distract everybody from the fact things are
Speaker 2: just terrible for the Bears. So I can't blame you
Speaker 2: for wanting to bet the Chiefs here. I would not
Speaker 2: play game. I think there's too many things that are
Speaker 2: sort of systemically wrong to feel comfortable playing putting a
Speaker 2: bet on this game.
Speaker 1: So again, this is a week where I like some favorites.
Speaker 1: Miami minus six and a half seven, I'd pass seven
Speaker 1: and a half. I may consider Denver, but minus six
Speaker 1: and a half a home opener for a team that
Speaker 1: has played a really talented Charger team in the road
Speaker 1: and a very good defensive team in New England. Now
Speaker 1: you have a Denver team in which Greg co Sell
Speaker 1: said today they are missing open looks. The defense has
Speaker 1: been incredibly discouraging. The old line is new. Cohesion's an issue.
Speaker 1: Russell has been awful in the second half. He's bad
Speaker 1: off script. And I had an executive in the league
Speaker 1: who I trust in personnel, and he said, Colin, I
Speaker 1: know you love Russell. He said, there's two weeks ago
Speaker 1: he said, this is it. This is what he is now.
Speaker 1: You can script him up. There's no juice beyond that,
Speaker 1: and I think Miami could be the best coached team
Speaker 1: in the league, head coach to top coordinator. I'd lay
Speaker 1: the minus six and a half seven. Probably stay away,
Speaker 1: but half a point matters Miami. Sharper square, You're being
Speaker 1: really square.
Speaker 2: I hate to say it, and listen, I hate asking
Speaker 2: you to do this when you're on the kind of
Speaker 2: streak that you're on, but this is how you fight
Speaker 2: your way back is you make hard choices. You're a
Speaker 2: very you're a very, very successful, successful person in every
Speaker 2: aspect of your life. Your wife is beautiful. You're a magnate,
Speaker 2: you're a media magnate. You're a radio audio legend, Hall
Speaker 2: of Famer, hall of famer. You've had to make hard
Speaker 2: choices before, and I hate, I hate asking you to
Speaker 2: do this, but this is like the biggest pros Joe's
Speaker 2: Game of the week. Right. You're never going to get
Speaker 2: higher inflation on Miami than you are right now, and
Speaker 2: you're never going to get more value on the Broncos
Speaker 2: than you are right now. Everything about this screams you
Speaker 2: got to take the Broncos, and everything you're saying abou
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson is right. Look as soon as they get
Speaker 2: to the second half and everyone else has made adjustments,
Speaker 2: he looks lost.
Speaker 1: He looks old.
Speaker 2: You could see it last week in that game against
Speaker 2: Washington he had that fumble and the ball was right
Speaker 2: in front of him and he It was reminiscent of
Speaker 2: that very famous photo of y a Tittle when he's
Speaker 2: on his knees and there's blood dripping down from his
Speaker 2: head and he just sort of looks like an old
Speaker 2: football player, Right, That's sort of what that felt like
Speaker 2: to me. He just sort of he wasn't there, Like
Speaker 2: he definitely is not the same player. And it's a bummer.
Speaker 2: But the Broncos have also been one of the unluckiest
Speaker 2: teams in the NFL. And I don't say that sort
Speaker 2: of as a broad generic term. On Action Network, we
Speaker 2: actually have something called the Luck Rankings, which categorizes the
Speaker 2: sort of inconsistent events that can impact a game and
Speaker 2: normalizes what should have happened right if you take out turnovers,
Speaker 2: weird circumstances, et cetera. The Broncos are the second most
Speaker 2: unluckiest team and this is sort of the biggest luck
Speaker 2: gap that we have second biggest luck gap that we have.
Speaker 2: Also one thing, I'll say Sean Payton after Mike Tomlin,
Speaker 2: second most profitable coach as an underdog the past twenty years.
Speaker 2: So if I am going to bet on a team
Speaker 2: in a situation in which they are zero and two,
Speaker 2: I'm probably going to bet on Sean Payton in this scenario.
Speaker 2: One more stat I'll give you teams playing their first
Speaker 2: home game in week two, so we're talking about I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: the first home game in week three. So we're talking
Speaker 2: about the Dolphins here when they are a favorite of
Speaker 2: three or more in the last twenty years twelve, twenty
Speaker 2: one and two. So I don't like the number. I
Speaker 2: don't like the spot, I don't like the circumstances. But
Speaker 2: I don't like having to tell you to do this
Speaker 2: right now.
Speaker 1: Okay, now we do. I ask you a game that
Speaker 1: I haven't a strong, definitive opinion, then you give me
Speaker 1: when I should bet. The one I'm fascinated with is
Speaker 1: New Orleans at Green Bay Packers now minus one and
Speaker 1: a half. So a lot of hand holding so far
Speaker 1: with Jordan love Yep, David BOCHTII, Christian Watson. I think
Speaker 1: it's sort of unfair to jump to any conclusions on
Speaker 1: Jordan without Christian Watson. He is their track star. He
Speaker 1: is their deep threat. When he's on the field, it
Speaker 1: changes coverage. Bochtari is a top five pass blocking left tackle,
Speaker 1: so health this could be a game time bet based
Speaker 1: on health. But this is our Where would you go
Speaker 1: with this bet of the week. I'm just interested in
Speaker 1: your thoughts.
Speaker 2: So I lean Saints. I was kind of hoping that
Speaker 2: the number might float a little bit higher. Today's actually
Speaker 2: been a pivotal day for this game. It's been sitting
Speaker 2: at plus two for the Saints all week, and today
Speaker 2: the wise guy came in and started betting on the Saints.
Speaker 2: So now the number is about one and a half.
Speaker 2: So I kind of I feel like I missed the
Speaker 2: window a little bit. The Saints, I think right now,
Speaker 2: are probably a little bit of a better team. I've
Speaker 2: been really impressed with Jordan Love like he has made
Speaker 2: some throws and taken the shots that he needed to
Speaker 2: take even when it hasn't worked out. But this team
Speaker 2: also gave up a twelve point lead to an Atlanta
Speaker 2: Falcons team that is not a dynamic offense. As as
Speaker 2: much as we love the Jon Robinson. He's not a
Speaker 2: dynamic offense. And I think the Saints defense is better
Speaker 2: than the Falcons defense. I think Derek Carr is a
Speaker 2: better quarterback than Desmond Ritter so and also, by the way,
Speaker 2: the stat I just gave you about the Dolphins, yeah,
Speaker 2: playing their first game at home in Week three, applies
Speaker 2: to the Packers as well. So I lean Saints here.
Speaker 1: Okay, and give me a bet I missed that. You
Speaker 1: really like, I'm gonna guess it's Baltimore, Indy.
Speaker 2: It's close. It's down to that or the Texas.
Speaker 1: A lot of people like Indy. But so you like
Speaker 1: the Texans plus nine and a half oh lines all
Speaker 1: beat up?
Speaker 2: I do. But apparently Laramie Tunsel's playing, So I like that.
Speaker 2: I think that CJ. Stroud of the rookie quarterbacks has
Speaker 2: actually played better than all of them. Has no receptions, like,
Speaker 2: no interceptions. He's making the plays that they're in front
Speaker 2: of him, even in garbage time, like you still have
Speaker 2: to make the plays, right. So their problem has been
Speaker 2: a seventeen percent conversion percentage in the red zone. Now,
Speaker 2: the Jags defense isn't very good. The Jags are also
Speaker 2: without Cam Robinson, still their offensive line is not performing
Speaker 2: the way it should be. They've underperformed. They beat the Colts,
Speaker 2: you know, thirty one twenty one, but I watched that
Speaker 2: whole game. It was not a good game and they
Speaker 2: did not play their best. They got lucky in that game,
Speaker 2: and then they had a chance to beat a hobbled
Speaker 2: Chiefs team. And you look at the stats on that
Speaker 2: Chiefs game. The Chiefs averaged sixty yards per play, they
Speaker 2: had four hundred total yards. They got some bad penalties.
Speaker 2: They would have blown the Jaguars out. So I'm a
Speaker 2: little nervous about this team that is a huge, huge favorite.
Speaker 2: I think it's a bad spot for them. So the
Speaker 2: wise guys are on the Texans.
Speaker 1: Yeah, in the air, I thought about this, but I
Speaker 1: was worried about the Olne play. It's a division game.
Speaker 1: That nine and a half points in division is crazy.
Speaker 1: And I will say this about rookie quarterbacks c J. Stroud,
Speaker 1: I think has leadership qualities and he doesn't make mistakes
Speaker 1: so far. There's limitations on what they can all do.
Speaker 1: But that's what gets Justin Fields into or Kenny Pickett.
Speaker 1: It's the mistakes. Yeah, he's not making any mistakes. They
Speaker 1: play between the thirties right like it's between the thirties football.
Speaker 1: So that was when I figured, I figured that I
Speaker 1: can't go with Gardner Minshew because I think Baltimore's really good.
Speaker 1: But I do sense the Dogs are heavy in the
Speaker 1: Colts this week.
Speaker 2: The wise guys are on the Colts. And that line
Speaker 2: probably was eight and a half for most of the week.
Speaker 2: It got down to seven and a half. And it's
Speaker 2: because the wise guys are coming in and I think
Speaker 2: they've actually been impressed with the Colts team and they've
Speaker 2: been really well coached. And I also think you're buying
Speaker 2: the Ravens really really high right now. And so but
Speaker 2: you got to think about this. In Week one, the
Speaker 2: Ravens beat the Texans. They didn't dominate the Texans. The
Speaker 2: Texans were in that game the entire time. The red
Speaker 2: zone is what caused problems for the Texans. And you're
Speaker 2: playing a quarterback who is a rookie, it's Week one.
Speaker 2: Those are the things to be expected. But I was
Speaker 2: all over the Texans plus ten in that game, and
Speaker 2: I never felt like I didn't have a shot to
Speaker 2: cover in that game until it was over. And then
Speaker 2: last week they played a team in Joe Burrow that
Speaker 2: he's clearly hobbled. So there's a lot of inflation on
Speaker 2: the Ravens and people sort of over valuing what they've
Speaker 2: done so far in the season. So I think that's
Speaker 2: why you're seeing a little bit of love for the Cult.
Speaker 2: But I understand why you wouldn't want to play it
Speaker 2: because Minshew's you know, he can be a scary gamble
Speaker 2: Chad Millman.
Speaker 1: He is the CCO of the Action Network. You're the
Speaker 1: only C COO I know, I know, COO. What is
Speaker 1: the what's the second C stand for content?
Speaker 2: We're in the twenty what is this the twenty second century?
Speaker 2: What year is this? Twenty first century? First, these are
Speaker 2: the titles we get now. Content?
Speaker 1: You got to achieve it, like you got to be in.
Speaker 2: Charge of it, you know what I'm saying.
Speaker 1: You know, Emma Thompson said, if you call it just content,
Speaker 1: it feels like stuffing in a pillow. Could you use
Speaker 1: the word creative?
Speaker 2: I don't disagree with her. Like, somewhere along the way,
Speaker 2: content became something that everybody feels like they can talk about,
Speaker 2: and it's so commoditized. And you know, back when you started,
Speaker 2: back when I started, nobody called it content. When I
Speaker 2: got to college and worked at Sports Illustrated, we weren't
Speaker 2: putting together the magazine thinking, Okay, what's the content. We
Speaker 2: were talking about stories, we were talking about pieces, we
Speaker 2: were talking about articles. When I went to ESPN the magazine,
Speaker 2: and when I was running ESPN dot com, we didn't say, hey,
Speaker 2: what's our content planned for the day. We're like, what's
Speaker 2: the best story we can tell, whether it's in video, audio,
Speaker 2: on platform, on digital, whatever it is. And then one
Speaker 2: day I'm at the Action Network and my boss comes
Speaker 2: in and he says, Hey, congratuate now the chief content officer.
Speaker 2: I'm like, I don't even know what that means. But
Speaker 2: now I'm in the C suite.
Speaker 1: Hit jokes on them, head of stuffing, head of pillow stuffing.
Speaker 2: I'm the head of pillow stuffing here at the Action Network.
Speaker 1: Colin.
Speaker 2: We got to turn this around this week. I am
Speaker 2: so rooting for you. I want greatness for you. I
Speaker 2: don't know where you're going to go with the Blazon
Speaker 2: five tomorrow. I hope I've been a positive influence.
Speaker 1: Well. The New Orleans one is interesting to me because
Speaker 1: I was sort of go either way if they don't
Speaker 1: have Christian Watson. By the way, how about that catch
Speaker 1: by Olave up the sideline. It won't get the one
Speaker 1: handed ob J. That's one of the best catches I've
Speaker 1: seen in my life. To be literally in the air
Speaker 1: and have the presence of min to hit it with
Speaker 1: one hand catch it slam into the turf. I was
Speaker 1: I sat there and I was like, the announcers aren't
Speaker 1: giving this credit the best amazing It was one of
Speaker 1: the best catches I've ever seen.
Speaker 2: But also, let's think about that game, like if Michael
Speaker 2: Thomas is really starting to play as he did a
Speaker 2: couple of years ago, and he's had some moments and
Speaker 2: Olave is the player that he can that he.
Speaker 1: Was last year, that's a receiving corps.
Speaker 2: That's a receiving corps, right, and so all of a
Speaker 2: sudden it changes the scope for New Orleans, and all
Speaker 2: of a sudden, that NFC South between the Bucks, who,
Speaker 2: by the way, wise guys loved it five and a
Speaker 2: half bet it down to four and a half against
Speaker 2: the Eagles because they like what Baker is doing with
Speaker 2: Michael Evans and Chris Godwin, and they know that the
Speaker 2: Eagle secondary is incredibly banged up, and that that offensive
Speaker 2: coordinator and Jalen Hurst, they have not geled. You can
Speaker 2: see sort of a lot of disconnection in the game.
Speaker 2: So between the Bucks, the Falcons, who I just love
Speaker 2: every single week, and the Saints, all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: you're talking about like a really competitive division. So then
Speaker 2: you got to wonder the Panther's going to win any
Speaker 2: games at all because they might not beat anyone in
Speaker 2: their division.
Speaker 1: No, we thought the AFC was going to be great.
Speaker 1: The NFC's actually been really good. That's the way it
Speaker 1: always is. We thought the NFC South was pathetic. Everybody's
Speaker 1: got you know, looks like Atlanta Tampa have a punch.
Speaker 1: It's the way it always works. I mean literally, college
Speaker 1: football is predictable. NFL outside of one or two teams,
Speaker 1: is not.
Speaker 2: Helen, we don't know anything. We have a combined eight
Speaker 2: thousand years in the business, and we don't know anything.
Speaker 1: I know people like this. I get people come up
Speaker 1: to me at my gym and the two things they
Speaker 1: say are you're ripped, and I love and I love
Speaker 1: Sharper Square. All right, buddy, that was funny, see you, buddy.
Speaker 2: That was good. All right, man, I hope your picking
Speaker 2: not funny. Just all right, my man, I'll see you later.
Speaker 1: The volume football is officially back. No more preseason games.
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