1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's talk space. Now, 7 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: we're talking outer space. Just in the last month we've 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: seen Sir Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos rocket into space, 9 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,520 Speaker 1: continuing the commercialization, if you will, of outer space. Let's 10 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: get a sense of where we're going for John Wensby, 11 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 1: executive director of the Allen b Levan NSU Broward Center 12 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,559 Speaker 1: of Innovation, joins is John, give us a sense here. 13 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 1: You know, when I was a kid, it was all 14 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: about the Apollo UH program and NASA, and you know 15 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 1: the US government talk to us about is the future 16 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: space innovation? Is it no longer NASA? Is it with 17 00:00:56,400 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: billionaire entrepreneurs? Well, ga Marine, and thanks for having me. 18 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: I'm actually glad that you mentioned UH the Apollo program 19 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: because we recently recruited Buzz Aldrin's son Andrew Aldrins, the 20 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:11,400 Speaker 1: director of our new space program called Level five Space 21 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: dook to support these entrepreneurial opportunities. But to really answer 22 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 1: your question, there's never been a more opportune time for 23 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:21,040 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs to launch and scale companies in the space sector. 24 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: And it's not the old government model of doing anything. 25 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: It's really moving into the privatization and the commercialization of 26 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: space through public private partnerships and more private sector um support. 27 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: And the barriers of entry are coming down, and the 28 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: technological advances that are creating expectations for the future are 29 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: much more cost effective than they've ever been. They're still high, 30 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: but they're certainly coming down, which really leads to increased 31 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: private investment by investors who are ran new to the 32 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: space sector. And the recess successes as you mentioned with 33 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: SpaceX and Version Galactic and Blue Origin are really great examples. 34 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: But the point is it's not just about it's not 35 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: just about billionaires, right, because we talked to so many people, 36 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: some of them young, you know gen z startup people 37 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: who are getting into the space business because not everybody 38 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:14,679 Speaker 1: has to do the launch, right, there's so many other aspects. Yeah, 39 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 1: you're absolutely correct, and the future of space isn't the 40 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: big names and brands that you know, it's it's the 41 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: people that are behind it. So you're these early stage 42 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs that are focused on technology development, whether it's the 43 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: hardware side or the software side, there are two evolving worlds. 44 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: And the hardware we often refer to as the vehicle 45 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: uh and the satellites as an example that on the 46 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: hardware side, it's all around data and how you use 47 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: data in space for the betterment of Earth or for 48 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: inner and outer space applications. And it's really provided opportunities 49 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: for anybody no matter what your economic status is. If 50 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: you've got a great idea that serving a need for 51 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 1: now in the future, this is the time to be 52 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: able to be focusing on that. Is there is there 53 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 1: a profit angle here at all? John? I mean, you know, 54 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: I look at Sir Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos and 55 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: I'm not sure they're really focused on making money here 56 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: given their status. Is there a belief that there is 57 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 1: a profit model in the commercialization of space? Well, I 58 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 1: think when you're associating these these big names that are 59 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,640 Speaker 1: they're internationally known, they're making headlines, and what they're doing 60 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 1: is they're bringing more awareness to the opportunities associated with space, 61 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: and I would say that profit is not the number 62 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 1: one objective. It's about breaking down the barriers so that 63 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: we can get to that next level. The future of 64 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 1: the entrepreneur, though, is about the profit, and these start 65 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: these small companies that are creating concepts and inventions that 66 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: support the space sector, whether it's in the private or 67 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: public sector. Their goal at the end of the day 68 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: is to be able to make money and scale these businesses, 69 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 1: and there's more infrastructure that's now available to be able 70 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: to do that than there's ever been before. But it's 71 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: the it's the names that we're not aware of that 72 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,080 Speaker 1: are going to be successful. Are the ones that are 73 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: profiting as they support these bigger initiatives. And I think 74 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: it's really important to focus on the big names like 75 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: the Nassas of the world and the Branson's and the 76 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: Bezos as examples. But what's happening is the space agencies 77 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: around the world are moving more to the private sector 78 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 1: in terms of support, where they're establishing very defined verticals 79 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: of need and then you market those needs and you 80 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: find the smaller entrepreneur that can cater to the development 81 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 1: of the inventions and technologies for those needs, and then 82 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 1: they're co funded. Um in many cases will be acquired 83 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: with into those space agencies, but they're they're generating a 84 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: profit at the end of the day. It's also I mean, 85 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,719 Speaker 1: there's so many other angles besides the launch. And I 86 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 1: said it already, but I think it's important to point out. Look, 87 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:48,240 Speaker 1: Netflix is producing a documentary um where SpaceX is going 88 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 1: to put four civilians into orbit and that's next month. 89 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: I mean, it just blows my mind. I know that 90 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 1: media is not your wheelhouse. I bring it up because 91 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:00,599 Speaker 1: it is Paul's wheelhouse. But what are the other business 92 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: lines you think, John that are going to be profitable soon? Well, 93 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 1: I think when you break it back down into the 94 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: hardware and the software side, the hardware is a little 95 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: bit more difficult. That's the space vehicles and the satellites 96 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: that are previously mentioned. That's very difficult because of the 97 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: high cost of putting that together. The profitable side of 98 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: the business is the low hanging fruit, as I'm calling 99 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,360 Speaker 1: it is to software is the data. It's a it's 100 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 1: a uniquely feasible space product, and if you know how 101 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 1: to collect it and analyze it and integrate it, and 102 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 1: then distribute that into different forms of technologies. That's truly 103 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 1: the future, and that can be done anywhere in the world. 104 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 1: It hasn't doesn't have to be in a in a 105 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 1: space environment, if you will. And there are multiple industries 106 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: that are currently creating things that may not even recognize 107 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: that they're directly supporting space or have the potential to 108 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: directly support space. But when you think about evolving themes 109 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: and this in this emerging world in which we live 110 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: around acceleration and disruption, it's things like cybersecurity or agriculture, 111 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: marine industries, telecommunications, um manufacturing and dance manufacturing, even smart 112 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 1: city development and design for the future, as well as 113 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,119 Speaker 1: the creation of new space services that don't even exist today. 114 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: So we have to create a whole world that supports 115 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: everything that happens up in inner in outer space. So 116 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: there really isn't an industry that can't connect to space 117 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: in a direct or indirect way. All right, John, great 118 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:23,239 Speaker 1: having you. Um. John Bensfeen is I think internationally known 119 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: expert on air transport. He wrote Air Transportation and Management 120 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: Perspective and Wheels Up Airline Business Plan Development, So he 121 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: really knows, you know, not only how these businesses work, 122 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: but how they can turn a profit. John, thanks very 123 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:42,239 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Let's get back to the markets 124 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: right now, and specifically to Disney earnings coming out after 125 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 1: the bell today. Kevin Near joins US Equity Research associated 126 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. He is live, Are you live in the studio? 127 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 1: All right? Cool? So you're with I mean the two 128 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 1: guys at the company who probably know more about Disney 129 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 1: than anyone else save possibly David Weston because I think 130 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: he used to work work there, work there. Um, what 131 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 1: do we expect? We've been talking a lot about the parks, 132 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: but there's also a lot going on in their media business. 133 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: And you know, you've got the TV, You've got the sports? 134 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: What what what the highlights? Definitely definitely thank you so 135 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: much again for having me. Uh so for us for 136 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: Disney earnings, you know, we're looking at three key things. 137 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: One is the update on this on the streaming subscriber story, 138 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: obviously Disney Plus being sort of the most important product 139 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: on that side, but Hulu ESPN Plus also important. Uh. Next, 140 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: we're gonna be looking for an update on the box 141 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: office on their distribution side. Uh. You know, Disney has 142 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: been really holding their cards close to their chest as 143 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: opposed to some of the other studios. UM. And then lastly, 144 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: as you as you mentioned, we're gonna be looking for 145 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 1: commentary on the theme parks business. We're expecting that this 146 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 1: this past quarter fiscal three Q will be their first 147 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: profit in that business since last year, since obviously the 148 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 1: virus shut down that side of the business. UM. But 149 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 1: that said, you know rising delta cases, there's something that 150 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: we're looking at very closely. And uh, and we're gonna 151 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: be looking for commentary on their on their bookings going forward. 152 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: So what do we know on the theme park business 153 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: because it's you know, it's a business that a lot 154 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 1: of people overlook because they look at the streaming business 155 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: and they look at ESPN. But the parks and resorts 156 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: quarter after quarter A it's a big business and be 157 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: it grows double digit earnings every quarter. But I'm really 158 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: concerned about this delta variant an impact you could have 159 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 1: in Florida, in California and their international things. Have they 160 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,679 Speaker 1: given any indication to how things maybe trending? Yeah, absolutely absolutely, 161 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 1: So that's exactly what we're gonna be looking for. And uh, 162 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: and again you bring up with great points. Um. You know, 163 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: as far as the international side, there's still a little 164 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 1: bit further behind than obviously on the domestic side. Uh, 165 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: they just had to reinstate obviously wearing masks in in 166 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 1: both those parks, Disney World and in Disneyland, Um, which 167 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: you know again you know that's that's that's writing on 168 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 1: the wall. I think consumers really see that. Um. There's 169 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: been no mention on you know, you know, vaccine mandates 170 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: as far as that. We think it's unlikely that they 171 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: will mandate vats nations considering just how they're how their 172 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: clientele really excuse you know, much younger. Obviously the children 173 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: under twelve haven't been approved yet. Um. But that said, 174 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: you're exactly to your point now, and you'd be turning 175 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: away so many people, so many Americans are vaccine hesitant, 176 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 1: I guess is the politically correct way to put it now, 177 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: but exactly anti vaxers, and you don't want to lose 178 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: those dollars, do you exactly exactly so that that remains 179 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: a threat, you know, near term. It's it's just very 180 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 1: unclear at this point how how delta is going to 181 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,079 Speaker 1: shake out. You know, we're still waiting on that f 182 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 1: t f D a mandate for for the vaccine, which 183 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 1: should theoretically change things. I guess either way, the streaming 184 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 1: business is good. I just wonder how you differentiate because 185 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: you you mentioned they've got Disney Plus, Hulu, ESPN, and 186 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 1: there's so many other offerings out there with um Netflix 187 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 1: and Apple TV, and I mean, so I'm subscribed to 188 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: p g A, I'm subscribed to MLB, Like the bills 189 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: are higher than my cable box used to cost, right 190 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 1: right now, that's that's the It's exactly right. And just 191 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: to contextualize this a little bit, what we've seen so far, 192 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: you know, this past quarter was really a mixed bag 193 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,040 Speaker 1: on the streaming side. You know, this is domestic. International 194 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: again is a different story. But uh, you know, Netflix 195 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: posted really really some some weak result. They actually posted 196 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 1: a loss domestically in the US and Canada. On the 197 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: subscriber side, Stars which is a premium spot service owned 198 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 1: by lions Gate, they saw a similar trend losing subscribers domestically, 199 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: and that's really all all based on weaker content slates. 200 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: And meanwhile, exactly to your point, some of those newer services, 201 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: Paramount Plus, HBO, Max Discovery Plus, they're posting gains you know, 202 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: at or above expectations. And you know, part of that 203 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: is is price promotions. Part of that is higher marketing 204 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 1: spence for those those newer services. UM. But what we're 205 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: really seeing now is that you know, what we like 206 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: to say is is the streaming wars have really started. 207 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 1: You know, they've really started now. We've been talking about 208 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 1: the streaming wars for a while, UM, but it's it's 209 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: has gotten real just this pass quarter. And the expectation 210 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: is that you know, Netflix, obviously they're the big dog, 211 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,839 Speaker 1: but Disney has established itself as a solid number two. 212 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: So of to we'll take a look at those earnings 213 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: coming out after the close tonight. Kevin Near joins his 214 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: is equity research associate at Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us here 215 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 1: in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. He works with the 216 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: great ether rung Onohan, who is also media analysts and 217 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,520 Speaker 1: she covered some of the tech stuff as well. So 218 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: another generation men of equity research covering the media sector 219 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: coming up for Bloomberg Intelligence. Kevin, you're joining us here. 220 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 1: I want to get over to Greg Hahn. He is 221 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: the chief investment officer at Winthrop Capital Management and I 222 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: want to kick it off with an inflation question. Question, 223 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: Greg Jarrett was just talking about the price of oil. 224 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: We know the President wants the price at the pumps 225 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 1: to come down, even if the I e A. Says 226 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 1: demand is going to get crimped. Are you a believer 227 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: in UH continuous inflation or is it transitory? So right now, 228 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: the way that monetary policy is working is we actually 229 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: think that it's transitory whatever we define. However we define transitory, 230 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: UH inflation is going to be here a little bit 231 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,680 Speaker 1: longer than what FED would want us to think, just 232 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 1: because of the supply chain dislocations and just corporate incentives 233 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: to keep prices up. Um. But as long as excess 234 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: reserves are parked down, the balance shoes the FED. And 235 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: that's not they're not leaking into the financial system. That 236 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: I think the Fed's got a good shot at controlling 237 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: the rate of inflation. Hey, Greg, you know, I look 238 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 1: at the ten year here trading at one point three, 239 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: and I gotta just step back and say, you know, 240 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 1: I've been an equity guy in my entire career in 241 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: thank goodness, because I have no idea if I were 242 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: a fixing co investor where I would go today. For 243 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: any yield or return. What are these people doing all day? 244 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: I mean, how do you generate return with the tenure 245 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: at one? Right? So it's it's pretty much known that 246 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,199 Speaker 1: bond investors can suck the fun out of the room 247 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,360 Speaker 1: faster than anybody. So the bond the bond world right now, 248 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: if you're investing in public, publicly traded bonds, it's a 249 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: very very difficult environment UM and institutional side. In the 250 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: private credit space, there are more opportunities to earn yield, 251 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: but those are coming down. Those would include clos and 252 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 1: commercial mortgage loans. But there are ways for individual investors 253 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: to capture the c l O investment or the bank 254 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 1: through UM some mutual funds and EPF so those obviously 255 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: have a higher risk associated with them different liquidity issues. 256 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 1: But that is the one of the answers to where 257 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: do you get where do you get yield? And the 258 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 1: other is leverage and the closed and fund provides that. 259 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 1: I mean, the other answer that Howard Marks gave us 260 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 1: is that it's just tough. You know, it's not It's 261 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: not easy, he said, um people are happy with three hundred. 262 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: He's happy with three hundred basis points on high yield debt. 263 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: That's that's enough. Um too, he thinks cover the costs 264 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: are the risk of a default. And I thought that 265 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: was amazingly told Eric Shasker that, Um, he said, people 266 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: that need seven percent? He doesn't know what to do. 267 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 1: Of course, he's a distress guy. Um what about in stocks? 268 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: Every time I think that we can't possibly run any 269 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: higher than this and valuations look pretty full, Um, we do, 270 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:16,560 Speaker 1: and how much further can we go? So here's so. 271 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: So the general rule of thumb in our world, this 272 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 1: is the Winthrop world, is that as long as we 273 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 1: have aggressive monetary policy and we have aggressive fiscal policy, 274 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 1: which we have both right now. Um, there's a safety 275 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: net on on asset prices. So um, that's can be 276 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: a catalyst for stocks to go higher. We are very, 277 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: very concerned about the market right now, and the reason 278 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: is there's a there's kind of a crossroads that are 279 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: taking place. The Fed um is going to start to 280 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: remove its stimulus, which means that the interest rates naturally 281 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: will drift higher. And then the question becomes, how will 282 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: the stock market handle that at a time when the 283 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: earnings comparisons, earning comps year over year are going to 284 00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: We're not going to have disfavorable earnings comp coming out 285 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: of the pandemic. They're gonna We're gonna see earnings growth 286 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: start too slow. So it's going to be a challenge 287 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: for equity investors going forward. And Greg's interesting. Earlier this week, 288 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: Tom Keen and I had on Doug Cass from Seabree's 289 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 1: Partners Legendary Investors, and he's at with a note, I 290 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: think on Tuesday, basic and entitled sell stocks now, basically 291 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: taking some of the concerns that you just highlighted and 292 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 1: said they're more than concerns. They're coming and that's not 293 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: good for equity markets. But that is very much the 294 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:34,120 Speaker 1: contrarian view out here as far as I can tell. 295 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: It's it's it is tough. I mean, we're ones to 296 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: stay invested, We're not ones to try to time the market. 297 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: But the the underlying theme here that the challenge that 298 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: we have is that we we in our world, we 299 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: recognize the structure of the capital markets has changed. And 300 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 1: you sort of touched on it with this idea on 301 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 1: the fixed income side is where do investors go? The 302 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: consequence of these said policies has been that US savers 303 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: people that are looking at retirement or in retirement, it's 304 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: very difficult to earn a an income stream in retirement 305 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: to support our lifestyle. We have to look at capital 306 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: games to do that. So it's it's a challenge that um, 307 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: you know, it's just it's just a challenge. Thank goodness. 308 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: We have social security right well, yeah and that. But 309 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: but just being sarcastic, I don't know, sometimes my sarcasm 310 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 1: doesn't read on radio. Yeah, but I meant like it's 311 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: not enough. Yeah. But in the in the equity markets, 312 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 1: we're not ones that there are there are places to go. 313 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: And I'm one of those that that is seriously a 314 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: China because of what's happened there is there's one. We 315 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,240 Speaker 1: think there's just a tremendous buy an opportunity. It is 316 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 1: not a place to run from. It's a place to 317 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: really study and look into that. Their form of capitalism 318 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: competing alongside Western capitalism, is going to be a survivor 319 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,200 Speaker 1: over the next ten years. And there's some cheap stocks there. 320 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: But you look there just for do you look for 321 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: a capital appreciation or do you for returns? Yeah, well 322 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 1: that's its capital appreciation. The income stream is not not competitive, Yeah, 323 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: it's it's a little scary. As Bloomberg had a story 324 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: I think yesterday, just highlighting how many millions of people 325 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 1: in America are going to be a turning sixty five 326 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,919 Speaker 1: and you know, if you retire at sixty five. My 327 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: parents are retiring their seventy and they're still gonna live 328 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: another twenty or thirty years, which I'm happy about. But 329 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: it's expensive, and especially if you get hit with something 330 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: like Alzheimer's or you know, it's it's a horrible thing 331 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: to think about, but it's just so expensive healthcare. Springing 332 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,120 Speaker 1: in a professionals or putting them in a home. It's 333 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 1: just you've got to be prepared, and I think a 334 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: lot of people are a little underprepared. Greg. Great having 335 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,239 Speaker 1: you on the program, Greg Han, chief investment officer at 336 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 1: Winthrop Capital Management. Ernesta Ramo's chief investment officer for the 337 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,120 Speaker 1: U S for bmo A Global Asset Management. He joins 338 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: us on the phone from Chicago. Ernesta, we're basically through 339 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 1: this second quarter earning period. You've got Disney after the 340 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: Clothes tonight, but really really impressive earnings growth. Was that 341 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 1: enough for those who feel like this market is expensive? 342 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: And that's a reason to maybe be cautious. Well, there's 343 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: certainly been incredible earnings growth, as you point out, Uh, 344 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,840 Speaker 1: it's clearly all in the price as we speak. And 345 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 1: the question is what's the earnings growth going to be 346 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 1: look looking like going forward? And that's a that's a 347 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: clear that's a question that doesn't have a clear answer. 348 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: The only thing that we think it's clear is that 349 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 1: it's not going to be as strong as it has been, 350 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,440 Speaker 1: uh for the last old months. I mean the earnings 351 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: over the last all months for the smp F. I 352 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: found it up. I don't think any analysts out there 353 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 1: has that kind of number for for the for the 354 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: next told months. So we think the market is a 355 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 1: bit richly valued in might need to take a breather here, 356 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:07,720 Speaker 1: and that's why we favor higher quality stocks are not 357 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 1: very very abriginally value top what we call quality value stocks. Yeah, 358 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: I'm looking at UM on the Bloomberg an esto. You 359 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: can type an index and then gego, which allows you 360 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: to graph a number of things. But I put up, 361 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: for example, trailing PE. Right now, we're at seven on 362 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:30,120 Speaker 1: the smp We were at the beginning of the year, 363 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: UM up around thirty three so the earnings have done 364 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: a lot to bring that down. But if you look 365 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 1: at um the forward PE estimates, we're trading around twenty 366 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: two and we had been at the high at the 367 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 1: end of last year up around twenty seven. What do 368 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 1: you think fair value is well with the with the 369 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 1: kind of monetary policy of the interest rates where they are. 370 00:19:55,880 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: I think the market can handle to you know, but 371 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:04,920 Speaker 1: it's gonna need earning scurowth to to get further ahead. 372 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 1: And right now, if you look at about the consensus, 373 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 1: they're pricing in about or they're looking for twenty earnings 374 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,719 Speaker 1: to come in and about plus nine percent for one 375 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: will come in. And so I think the market doesn't 376 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: have a lot of room to go with nine percent 377 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 1: earning s growth maybe a couple of percent higher from 378 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: where it is now. So it's it's gonna be interesting 379 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: to see what what gives. But specifically, what we're looking 380 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: to do in our portfolis is tilt a little bit 381 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: away from from growth to value because we see the cycle, 382 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: the economic cycle is really recovering strongly uh and uh 383 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 1: and and and and also tilt a little bit towards 384 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 1: smaller caps, so smaller cap value over large cap growth. 385 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: But we're not dramatically, just just a little bit, just 386 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 1: so that you get a little bit more exposure to 387 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 1: two sectors that are more uh tied to the economic cycle. Here, 388 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 1: I tell you of the many reasons I like working 389 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: with Matt Miller is his knowledge of Bloomark functionality is amazing. 390 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:12,439 Speaker 1: That function I did not know it and I've been 391 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 1: here twelve years. Thank you for that, Sernesto. You know, 392 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: what are some of the sectors that you guys are 393 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 1: working on these days? I mean again, we just came 394 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 1: through earnings. We've got some more information about how companies 395 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 1: are thinking about their businesses going forward. Are there some 396 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: sectors that you guys are doing some extra work on 397 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: these days? Well, we really are more focused on the 398 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: companies at the at the bottom, up the level, so 399 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 1: companies that AutoZone, companies like Carl Ruf. The AutoZone is 400 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: is you know, celebrate care type shop where people that 401 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: want to fix their own cards go by parts and whatnot. 402 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: H card Rufi, which is tied to the recovery in 403 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:59,880 Speaker 1: in the housing sector and people um fixing their house 404 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: is up. And also it's also tried te a little 405 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 1: bit infrastructure growth and and UH companies like like all State, 406 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: which is an insurre not not too many people will 407 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 1: come on shows and talk about insurance, but it's a 408 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 1: company doing very well. And these are the one thing 409 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,199 Speaker 1: that characterizes them. For example, all State trades in like 410 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,959 Speaker 1: eight and a half times earnings, which is pretty pretty 411 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 1: ridiculously cheap. But the thing that all of these companies 412 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 1: have in common is that they don't trade at very 413 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: expensive valuations. And and that's the one thing we're making 414 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,680 Speaker 1: sure in our portfolos, even in our growth portfolios, we're 415 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,920 Speaker 1: not overpaid for any one stock because at these levels 416 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,400 Speaker 1: of valuation, the biggest risk in the market right now 417 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: is a valuation risk and that we have a correction 418 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 1: just because the market is originally valued. What are the 419 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 1: you think the best sectors where we can find how 420 00:22:57,040 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: do you screen for value stocks? Industrials is one, Financials 421 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: is another, UH, Materials is another. UM. You know, those 422 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:13,360 Speaker 1: are the traditional value sectors. UH, But but there's companies 423 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: in in in UH the consumer discretion area for example 424 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: of auto zone, which which I mentioned already, that that 425 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: are that are attractively valued. So you really have to 426 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 1: go sector by sector. Technology in general is going to 427 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,359 Speaker 1: be richly valued, but you're gonna find companies here and 428 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 1: there that are doing very well and not trading at 429 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,920 Speaker 1: very high valuations. So it's really a question of focusing 430 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: on the company themselves and their individual prospects run to 431 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 1: make broad based sector or industry calls. It's just all 432 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 1: about the companies, and our approach really measures the evaluation. 433 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,879 Speaker 1: Of course it is very important, but profitability, quality, growth 434 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: of every company, as well as market sentiment, and we 435 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: aggregate a bunch of metrics on all of these to 436 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 1: come up with a with a shortlisted. Then we do 437 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 1: a lot of fun the mode men. All right, Naste, 438 00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: thanks very much. Nasto Ramos from BMO. Thanks for listening 439 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen 440 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 441 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,440 Speaker 1: I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. 442 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: Put on fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 443 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,040 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 444 00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.