1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest episode from the 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: midweek edition of the coin Bureau podcast. Every week, I 3 00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: pick out two of my favorite videos from coin Bureau's 4 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: YouTube channel to present to you in podcast form. The 5 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: audio you're about to hear is from those videos I've 6 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,119 Speaker 1: chosen this week. Many of you have been in touch 7 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: to ask whether it's possible to listen to our videos 8 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: in podcast format, and so your wish is my command. 9 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: This week, I've selected our videos on China's economic woes 10 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: and my top crypto tools for this year. I've talked 11 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: a lot recently about the problems facing the US and 12 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: European economies, and you'd be hard pressed to open a 13 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 1: newspaper without seeing doom laden predictions for the coming winter. 14 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: But it's not just these economies that are facing serious headwinds. 15 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 1: The situation in China is also looking bleak, as its 16 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: gigantic property market endures a serious contraction, productivity and growth 17 00:00:54,360 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: trend downwards, and youth unemployment source to nearly all side 18 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: ends point towards an economic disaster for the People's Republic, 19 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 1: and the consequences of that for the rest of the 20 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: world will be severe. Here's everything you need to know. Then, 21 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: in the second part of the episode, I give a 22 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 1: rundown of some of the best tools I and my 23 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: colleagues here at the Coin Bureau use for our crypto research. 24 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: There's a growing amount of information about crypto out there 25 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,839 Speaker 1: on the Internet, but finding the most useful and most 26 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: reliable sources of that information is not always easy, So 27 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: allow me to cut through the noise. These tools are 28 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: all free to use and will stand you in good 29 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 1: stead when researching any crypto project you're interested in. That 30 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: invaluable alpha is out there, you just need to know 31 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,040 Speaker 1: where to look. I hope you enjoy listening to these 32 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: two pieces, and I'll be back talking crypto with Mike 33 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: very soon, so be sure to stay tuned, and if 34 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: you want even more content from coin Bureau, be sure 35 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: to subscribe to our YouTube channel and visit us on 36 00:01:54,880 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: social media too. One of the biggest risks to the 37 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 1: global economy right now is what is going on over 38 00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: in China now. While there have been rumblings of this before, 39 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 1: which we've covered right here on the channel, recent data 40 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: shows that these rumblings are turning into some serious thunder 41 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: So could this eventually lead to an economic storm which 42 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: engulfs us all and which sectors are likely to be 43 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: most exposed to a Chinese meltdown. That's exactly what I'll 44 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: be exploring today. So don't you go anywhere. Okay, let's 45 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: start with the economic data that was released last week. 46 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: It gave perhaps the widest perspective on the state of 47 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy this year. Firstly, we had re tail sales. Now, 48 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: these were expected to come in at five pc growth 49 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: from the previous year. However, they came in at two 50 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: point seven percent, which was a pretty big miss. Not 51 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: only that, but it's also below the growth of three 52 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: point one percent that we saw in June. Now, retail 53 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 1: sales are an important metric as they act as a 54 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: key gauge of consumer confidence. So the fact that these 55 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 1: sales are down badly means that Chinese consumers are well 56 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: not too confident. Then we had the industrial production numbers. 57 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: Now these are even more significant than retail sales, as 58 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: factory output and exports are one of the main engines 59 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: of China's economic growth. Now, there were hopes that the 60 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: economy would be able to weather the spring lockdowns and 61 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: that international demand for these exports would bounce back. But Alas, 62 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:57,600 Speaker 1: those numbers were also soft. They came in at three 63 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: point eight percent for July, lower than the expectations of 64 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: four point five percent, as well as the previous June numbers, 65 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: which came in at three point nine Now, another really 66 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: important component of Chinese economic growth is, of course, it's 67 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 1: real estate sector. In fact, according to most estimates, real 68 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: estate accounts for anywhere between twenty and thirty percent of 69 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: China's GDP. It's pretty crazy anyways, It looks as if 70 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: things haven't been getting any better in this already battered sector. 71 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: Average new home prices in seventy major cities fell one 72 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 1: point six seven percent in just one month, and this 73 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: was an even larger fall than in June, which saw 74 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: a one point to nine full On a month to 75 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: month basis, average new home prices have fallen for the 76 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:54,359 Speaker 1: eleventh consecutive month. There were also hopes that the government's 77 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: planned infrastructure push would help to lift these lower stats, 78 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 1: but alas they also fell short of expectations. Fixed asset 79 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 1: investment slowed in July to five point seven percent growth 80 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: year on year, which was lower than the expectations of 81 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 1: six point two and even lower than the previous months. 82 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: Six point one. Then yet another really alarming stat was 83 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: the fact that youth unemployment, those between the ages of 84 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: sixteen and twenty four, reached a record nineteen point nine. 85 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 1: So if we take all of this data together, it 86 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 1: means that people in China are feeling poorer, their incomes 87 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 1: are lower if they have a job, and the country 88 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: is not producing as much as hoped. And what's even 89 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 1: more surprising about this is that these are the official numbers. 90 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: These are the numbers that were published by Chinese government 91 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: agencies themselves, and if you watch my video on Chinese GDP, 92 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:55,799 Speaker 1: you'll know that these are dubious at best. So given 93 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: that these numbers are bad enough, we're left wondering what 94 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 1: the actual number us look like now. Perhaps one of 95 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: the biggest signs of how rough things are getting for 96 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy was last week's surprise decision by the 97 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 1: People's Bank of China to cut interest rates by ten 98 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: basis points. This at a time when other central banks 99 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: around the world have entered their rate hiking cycle. What 100 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: all this means is that China's goal of reaching five 101 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: point five percent growth this year appears to be a 102 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: pipe dream, something that I'm sure Zi jing Ping isn't 103 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 1: happy about as he heads into the twentieth National Conference 104 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 1: later this year. However, I happen to think that missing 105 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: an arbitrary growth rate is the least of comrades use concerns. 106 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 1: That's because there is a real risk of a much 107 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 1: more severe economic collapse. This starts with one of the 108 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: biggest risks to the Chinese economy right now, and that is, 109 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: of course, the real estate sector. This is something we 110 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 1: touched on last year in our video about ever Grand, 111 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: But since that time things have only gotten worse. However, 112 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: to understand just how bad it's getting and could get, 113 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: you have to appreciate how much of a house of 114 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: cards the Chinese real estate sector is, and yes, pun 115 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: is very much intended. Quite simply, real estate has been 116 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: viewed as one of the safest ways for your average 117 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: Chinese citizen to invest. Speculation in other assets like stocks 118 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: has been muted. For example, the Chinese stock market index 119 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 1: has still not recovered from the two thousand and eight crash. Still, 120 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: that's despite all the economic growth that the country is 121 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: seen in intervening fourteen years. But when it comes to 122 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: the property market, it's a completely different story. For example, 123 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: If we were to take a look at the average 124 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: cost of owning a home compared to median income, China 125 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: is off the charts. For context, in the US, the 126 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: average cost to inc is about four point five times. 127 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: Here in the UK, it's eight times. In Canada, it's 128 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 1: eight point nine times. In China, however, it's thirty eight times. 129 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: What this means is that the average Chinese citizen has 130 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: been pumping their money into real estate, and over the 131 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 1: past ten years, this was the best trade anyone could 132 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 1: make in the country. Property prices were always going to 133 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: go up as China was modernizing and growing. Well, that 134 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 1: was the theory, at least. Given this insatiable demand, a 135 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: number of Chinese property developers grew to become some of 136 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: the biggest companies in the country and indeed the world. 137 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:44,079 Speaker 1: They would make money by building expensive developments, and would 138 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: often take on a huge amount of debt in order 139 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: to do so. Companies such as ever, Grand Bankie and 140 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: Country Garden made this their primary business model. So high 141 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: was the demand for these properties that they would even 142 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: sell them off plan before a single all beam had 143 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: been laid. The people, meanwhile, were so keen to get 144 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: their hands on some property that they would shell out 145 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 1: down payments on homes that it only existed on paper 146 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: in order to continue growing. These developers would then take 147 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: the pre payment funds and start to build further projects. 148 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: They also started taking on inordinate amounts of debt to 149 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: fund these ambitious projects. These included offshore bonds and bank debt. 150 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: By some estimates, ever, Grand was one of the most 151 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 1: indebted companies in the world, to the tune of over 152 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: three hundred billion dollars, and perhaps the most troubling of 153 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: all this debt was commercial paper. This took the form 154 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: of io use that Evergrand and other developers issued two 155 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: contractors and other companies in the construction supply chain. These 156 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 1: i o us were viewed as rock solid and essentially 157 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 1: became a quasi currency. Now it's hard to tell how 158 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: much of this commercial paper remains outstanding, and there are 159 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: concerns that it could lead to solvency issues at banks 160 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 1: banks that are already strained from the loans issued to 161 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 1: these developers. So essentially, the Chinese property market was a 162 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: massive ponzi where developers fronted new properties with other people's 163 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 1: money and a whole host of debt. This all worked 164 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: well as long as there were new people willing to 165 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:29,959 Speaker 1: invest in the scheme, but alas the tide began to turn. 166 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: Even before COVID broke out, there were signs that China's 167 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,960 Speaker 1: property sector was heading for trouble. Yet it was the 168 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: lockdowns and the impact they had on consumer confidence and 169 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 1: budgets that started putting a dent in this insatiable demand. 170 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 1: Given that newer buyers were no longer guaranteed, and that 171 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: debt was piling up, property deposits couldn't be guaranteed. Moreover, 172 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: the government also sought to reign in develop a debt, 173 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 1: which meant that these companies would struggle to raise new funds, 174 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 1: and as we saw with ever Ground last year, they 175 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 1: didn't even have enough money to service their current debts, 176 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 1: let alone finish the properties they were building. This means 177 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: that those people who paid for pre built properties over 178 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:18,200 Speaker 1: the past few years still have not had them delivered. 179 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: Some have only been partially built and are hence uninhabitable. 180 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: Some people who bought houses have had to move into 181 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: half finished homes with no running water or electricity. I'll 182 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 1: leave a few links to stories about these poor people 183 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 1: in the description. Their situation really is dire now. Of course, 184 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 1: as stories of developer woes and unfinished properties start to 185 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 1: permeate through society, the less likely new buyers are to 186 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: shell out for a deposit on a home. Moreover, given 187 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 1: those youth unemployment figures and the relatively slower growth, people 188 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: in China appear to have been taking a weight and 189 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: see approach. So with no new suckers to feed the 190 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: proper Ponzi scheme, the developers have grown desperate. In some cases, 191 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: they're giving away cars and live pigs in order to 192 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,319 Speaker 1: sweeten the deal. When signing for a new apartment don't 193 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: have all the money to make the deposit no problem, 194 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: they're also accepting deposits in garlic and wheat, and I 195 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 1: wish I was joking. It turns out that people would 196 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 1: rather eat food than pay for an imaginary apartment. Who 197 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: knew now. The result of this mess has been a 198 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: cataclysmic fall in property sales s and P estimates that 199 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: this year China could see a thirty percent fall in 200 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,040 Speaker 1: this area. It's worth pointing out that during the two 201 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: thousand and eight crash, property sales fell by so there 202 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 1: are no more people feeding the property Ponsi scheme, and 203 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: that means that these developers won't have enough money to 204 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: complete the promised developments, and this is only likely to 205 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: get worse. That's because, adding to a Bank of America report, 206 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: approximately nine percent of the housing floor space that was 207 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: pre sold in one risks not being completed on schedule 208 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: because of developers financial troubles affecting roughly two point four 209 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:21,079 Speaker 1: million households. These people will not be happy, and many 210 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: have begun to protest now. Of course, any sort of 211 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: public protest in China is brutally suppressed, so they've had 212 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 1: to express their anger in a different way, and this 213 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: has come in the form of mortgage protests. These started 214 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: a few months ago as buyers of a certain everground 215 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 1: complex posted a manifesto online. They said that unless work 216 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: began on their properties again, they would refuse to pay 217 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 1: their mortgages. Now, despite the best efforts of the online sensors, 218 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: this spread like wildfire and has been used as a 219 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: template for protests around the country. Within four weeks, more 220 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:03,199 Speaker 1: than three hundred and twenty projects in one hundred cities 221 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: we're facing similar demands. This type of coordinated descent in 222 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 1: so many regions is the nightmare of any authoritarian regime. 223 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:16,319 Speaker 1: But the real concern should lie in the risk that 224 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: this could pose to an already fragile banking sector. According 225 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: to estimates from SMP, in a worst case scenario, three 226 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty six billion dollars six point four of 227 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: all mortgages could be at risk. Deutsche Bank had its 228 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: own estimates, which placed the total at seven percent of 229 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 1: all home loans. Now you can see just how much 230 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: debt there is in the Chinese property sector over here, 231 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: both the mortgages to people and loans to the developers. 232 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: This means that Chinese banks are exposed to the property 233 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: sector more so than they are to any other sector 234 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: of the economy, and already it appears as if non 235 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: performing loans are beginning to climb. They recent reached a 236 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:05,000 Speaker 1: record as the economy continued to sour this year. Meanwhile, 237 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: banks capital adequacy ratios fell for the second straight quarter 238 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: to fourteen point eight seven percent at the end of June. 239 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: Even if these banks wanted to reduce their risk to 240 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: the property developers, the CCP has other ideas. That's because 241 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: they recently told the banks that they should quote meet 242 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 1: developers financing needs where reasonable. So the government is asking 243 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 1: the banks to take the hit and bail out these 244 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 1: incredibly inefficient and indebted firms. The real question here, though, 245 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: is how much mortgage loan losses can the banks take 246 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 1: and how much loan losses to developers can they write 247 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: off before they start facing real trouble. It's also not 248 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 1: as if these banks are only exposed to irregularities in 249 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 1: the property market. On the other side of the balance sheet, 250 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: there remains the risk of those rural bank runs spreading 251 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: to the larger and more established banks. Now, if you 252 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 1: want a good breakdown of exactly what these bank runs are, 253 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: then I encourage you to watch my video on it, 254 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 1: and that will be in the top right. Then there 255 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: are the broader risks from other sectors of the economy. 256 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: Although Chinese banks are the most exposed to the property sector, 257 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 1: slowing economic growth in other sectors could have a drastic 258 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 1: impact on their balance sheets. As I mentioned at the 259 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 1: beginning of this video, industrial production and retail sales missed 260 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 1: estimates lower earnings mean less expansion, which means less desire 261 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: for bank leans or financing. And last, but not least, 262 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 1: we have to consider the pretty devastating impact that COVID 263 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: zero is having on the economy. It seems that the 264 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: only curve that this policy is flattening is economic growth. 265 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: Despite nearly every other country learning to live with it, 266 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: China appears dogmatic in its approach to fighting the virus. 267 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: Not only has this been one of the primary reasons 268 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 1: why growth in the first part of the year was 269 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 1: severely curtailed, but it has also considerably damaged consumer confidence. 270 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 1: When the risk of being placed in arbitrary lockdown exists, 271 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 1: people aren't too optimistic about the future. Even the act 272 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: of taking a short holiday to the seaside could see 273 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:23,159 Speaker 1: tourists lockdown for weeks. Naturally, if you want too optimistic 274 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: about the future, then you're not too willing to buy 275 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: a whole lot of goods. That's less demand for credit, 276 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 1: which further crushes the bank's balance sheets. So all of 277 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 1: this then poses a very important question. Could China face 278 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 1: a wide scale financial crisis and how would this compare 279 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: to the subprime loan crisis that we saw in two 280 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 1: thousand and eight. Well, total US banking assets in two 281 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 1: thousand and eight were sixteen trillion dollars. Today, Chinese bank 282 00:17:54,640 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: assets stand at almost fifty trillion dollars, and this isn't 283 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 1: even counting the entire shadow banking sector that China is 284 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: well known for financial institutions that have become heavily embedded 285 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 1: in the property sector and who operate without any of 286 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 1: the capital requirements that regulated banks do. The Chinese economy 287 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: is the proverbial iceberg. It's not what's on the surface 288 00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:24,679 Speaker 1: that is the most troubling. Okay, So it's pretty clear 289 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 1: that there are some economic storm clouds brewing over there 290 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,680 Speaker 1: in China. But you may be sitting there wondering, so, 291 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: what what does this have to do with me? Well, 292 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 1: perhaps the most immediate impact could be from international assets 293 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 1: sales by Chinese companies and investors. If there really is 294 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,159 Speaker 1: a collapse in the country's economy, then they're going to 295 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: look to offload these assets to raise capital. Think about 296 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: all those shares that they own in public companies or 297 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: real estate in hot property markets like New York, Melbourne, Toronto, 298 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: or London. What about alternative assets like crypto or precious metals. Now, 299 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 1: it's not so easy to ascertain the risk of all 300 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: this because often these international assets are held through trusts, 301 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:15,959 Speaker 1: offshore companies, and other vehicles. But beyond the fire sale 302 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: of international assets. The global economic impact could be far worse. 303 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 1: Without stating the obvious. China is the world's second largest economy. 304 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 1: It's a massive consumer of global exports, and any collapse 305 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,920 Speaker 1: in its economic growth will mean that other countries will 306 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 1: see their trade with China collapsed too. This will come 307 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: at a time when the global economy is already looking 308 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: the worse for wear. Europe looks to be heading into 309 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: a cold winter of negative economic growth, the US is 310 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: still teetering on the brink of recession as growth there 311 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 1: begins to sputter. And one final risk that could come 312 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: from a Chinese economic crash is a full blown war. 313 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 1: If China really does enter a period of economic strife, 314 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 1: then the government there could look to distract from that 315 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: with an aggressive and assertive foreign policy. One of the 316 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 1: most prized targets for the Chinese, both from a political 317 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: and economic standpoint, is Taiwan, and I talked about this 318 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: in much greater detail in my recent video, which you 319 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,600 Speaker 1: can find in the top right here. Now, of course, 320 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 1: I hope that none of this happens. I hope that 321 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: the Chinese banks are able to help developers finance projects 322 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 1: which can subsequently be completed. This would allow those citizens 323 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:34,119 Speaker 1: who bought those houses the dignity of being able to 324 00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: actually live in them. I also hope that the government 325 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: will end its nonsensical COVID zero policy and just get 326 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: with the times. There is no point crushing people's hope 327 00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,680 Speaker 1: in an attempt to beat a foe that cannot be defeated. 328 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 1: Quite simply, the Chinese government is going to have a 329 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:54,360 Speaker 1: tough time navigating some treacherous economic waters over the next 330 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:58,000 Speaker 1: few months, but whether it can do this without hitting 331 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 1: that proverbial iceberg is another question Entirely. The crypto market 332 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: is a moving target. Just when you think you've got 333 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 1: your finger on the pulse of a coin or tokens 334 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: price action, it moves in an unexpected direction. The reality 335 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 1: is that getting it right every time is next to impossible. 336 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: Even so, you can increase your chances of success by 337 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: leveraging the right crypto tools. That's why today I'm going 338 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: to tell you about some of the best crypto tools 339 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: I've come across this year and how to use them 340 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: to maximize your crypto gains. I'll start with a quick 341 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 1: shout out to Sergio Gallardo at Massari for his excellent 342 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: Twitter thread about crypto tools which inspired this video. I'll 343 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,159 Speaker 1: leave a link to that thread in the description if 344 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: you're interested, and feel free to hit me with your 345 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: suggestions about crypto tools I should consider in the comments. 346 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: And before you ask, yes, all of the crypto tools 347 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 1: are be mentioning in this video are free to use now. 348 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,199 Speaker 1: The first crypto tool to add to your belt is 349 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:10,440 Speaker 1: actually a bundle, and that's crypto fees, Open Org's money 350 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: printer and l two fees by cryptostats and the smart 351 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:19,959 Speaker 1: contract cryptocurrency gas Tracker by own Chain. So starting with 352 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 1: crypto fees, what this tool is all about is clearly 353 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 1: noted at the top of the page quote there's tons 354 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 1: of crypto projects, which ones are people actually paying to use? 355 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: If that didn't make it clear enough, crypto fees tells 356 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,359 Speaker 1: you how much people have paid in transaction fees to 357 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: use a smart contract, cryptocurrency or decentralized application over the 358 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 1: last twenty four hours and seven days. Crypto fees is 359 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 1: useful because, well, it tells you which crypto projects and 360 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,719 Speaker 1: protocols people are actually paying money to use, and this 361 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 1: can help you assess whether their associated coins or tokens 362 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: are undervalued or overvalued. Relative to these transaction fee fundamentals. 363 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 1: Keep in mind that some crypto projects and protocols have 364 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: very low transaction fees. As such, there could still be 365 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,720 Speaker 1: lots of demand for its coin or token even though 366 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: the transaction fees are low. Now some would argue that 367 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 1: higher transaction fees equals more demand, but that's a topic 368 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: for another time. Now. The next tool in this bundle 369 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: is open orgs, which, like crypto fees, clearly states what 370 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,440 Speaker 1: it's about. At the top of the page, quote dows 371 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 1: are the new companies? What's on their balance sheets? If 372 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 1: that didn't make it clear enough, open orgs tells you 373 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 1: how much crypto is being held by dows. And what's 374 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 1: cool is you can see which cryptos they're holding in 375 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: their treasuries by clicking on the little arrow next to 376 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,880 Speaker 1: the treasury balance. This is important to know because spending 377 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 1: by dows can be a strong source of cell pressure 378 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 1: for a cryptocurrency. This is especially important if the dow 379 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: holds primarily a coin or token belonging to the crypto 380 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 1: project or protocol, which you're presumably invested in. If you're 381 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: a fan have said project or protocol. Then there's money printer, 382 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,959 Speaker 1: which actually has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve. 383 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: Money Printer is a tool that keeps track of how 384 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 1: much annual inflation there is for major cryptocurrencies and how 385 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 1: much potential cell pressure this inflation is creating on a 386 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: daily basis for their respective coins. As with crypto fees, 387 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,400 Speaker 1: it's important to remember that a small annual inflation rate 388 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: can still translate to a massive amount of daily cell 389 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,359 Speaker 1: pressure depending on the market cap of the crypto in question. 390 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 1: Now you can easily toggle this setting by clicking on 391 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: the issuance rate and daily issuance tabs. L two Fees 392 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,359 Speaker 1: is more straightforward, as it's a tool that tells you 393 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,680 Speaker 1: the transaction fees on Ethereum's most popular scaling solutions, including 394 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 1: transaction fees for a simple transfer as well as a 395 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: more complex token swap. This can help you save money 396 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:56,680 Speaker 1: when transaction fees on Ethereum are high. This ties into 397 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,240 Speaker 1: the last tool in the bundle, and that's the Gas 398 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: Fees Tracker by own Chain, which is seriously underrated, probably 399 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: because of how the website and the tool is named, 400 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,800 Speaker 1: which is just gas with many essays. As you can see, 401 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 1: the gas Fees website shows you the transaction fees for 402 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 1: most major cryptocurrencies, both in their native coins and in 403 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: US dollars. This can be extremely helpful when you're trying to, say, 404 00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: move cryptocurrency between exchanges, or need to move a token 405 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,399 Speaker 1: like a stable coin between wallets. If you want to 406 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,800 Speaker 1: learn more about how transaction fees work in cryptocurrency, you 407 00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: can check out our video about that using the link 408 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:38,880 Speaker 1: in the description. Anyways, the second crypto tool to add 409 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 1: to your belt is another bundle, and that's the Governance 410 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: Tracker by Tally, the Governance Tracker by Massari, and the 411 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:50,159 Speaker 1: Governance Tracker by deep Down. Starting with Tally's Governance Tracker, 412 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,160 Speaker 1: this tool lets you see all the most active dows 413 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:58,119 Speaker 1: on Ethereum, Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and arbitram. Any dows that 414 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 1: have active proposals in proce us are automatically top of 415 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 1: the list. Otherwise it's sorted based on how many active 416 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 1: voters there are. I'll quickly note that it's quite remarkable 417 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: how little engagement there is outside of the top ten dows. 418 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: Now what's cool is when you click on one of 419 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 1: the dow's, Tally will show you how the governance process 420 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:21,920 Speaker 1: for the dow in question works. In simple terms as 421 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 1: well as the top voters in that dow, and they're 422 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 1: voting power. Not surprisingly, the top voters in these dows 423 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: are often crypto vcs. What's awesome is that tally even 424 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,120 Speaker 1: lets you create your own proposal for the dow you've 425 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 1: selected and gives you a step by step guide on 426 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,919 Speaker 1: how to publish your proposal. Note that you'll need a 427 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:44,360 Speaker 1: web three wallet like meta mask for this now. Besides 428 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,439 Speaker 1: making it easy to have a say in your favorite 429 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 1: crypto projects, Tally's governance track it can be another way 430 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,280 Speaker 1: to keep track of any cell pressure your favorite coins 431 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 1: or tokens could experience, assuming they have proposals waiting to 432 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 1: be passed. Of course, not only that, but keeping track 433 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: of proposals for their past can be a great way 434 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 1: of getting ahead of an upcoming rally. All you need 435 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 1: to do is check when the proposal will be passed, 436 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 1: and if you know it's a significant one, you could 437 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 1: make an easy profit selling the news. Ideally, you'd catch 438 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: a bullish proposal before it's even tabled, and that's where 439 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: Massari's governance tracker comes in. This tool also gives you 440 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 1: an overview of the most active dows on popular smart 441 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:30,320 Speaker 1: contract cryptocurrencies, including governance for smart contract cryptocurrencies themselves. Unlike 442 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 1: Tally's governance Tracker, however, Massari's Governance Tracker gives you an 443 00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: overview of all the preliminary discussions going on within these dows. 444 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 1: This makes it easy to spot proposals that have yet 445 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,159 Speaker 1: to be tabled and can therefore get you in extra 446 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 1: early on a price move before the proposal is passed. Now, 447 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,399 Speaker 1: the only thing our caution is that Massari's assessment of 448 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:55,240 Speaker 1: the importance of a particular proposal isn't always accurate, so 449 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 1: don't give too much weight to that indicator on the dashboard. 450 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 1: Always click on the proposal to double check what it's about, 451 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,880 Speaker 1: then ask yourself whether it's something that could be passed 452 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: and what it could mean for the price of the 453 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 1: coin or token in question. Last, but not least, we 454 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: have deep Dow's Governance Tracker, which essentially combines the best 455 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 1: of the two other governance tools. Deep doubt lets you 456 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 1: sought dows by changes in treasury value, token holders, and 457 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 1: active voters on the homepage. The tool also lets you 458 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,639 Speaker 1: see both discussions and proposals in real time on the 459 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 1: dow feed. The differences that deep Doubt aggregates this data 460 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:36,520 Speaker 1: to give you an idea of how dows are doing 461 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 1: in general, be it by active voters or treasury balances. 462 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: Deep Doubt also lets you see which wallets are the 463 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 1: most active in crypto governance on the people tab. Interesting 464 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 1: stuff to say the least. Now, if you're wondering why 465 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 1: else crypto governance is so important, you can check out 466 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 1: our video about that, using, of course, the link in 467 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 1: the description. Anyhow, the third crypto tool to add to 468 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 1: your belt is a couple of telegram bots, specifically the 469 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: ether drops bot and the token unlock Spot. The ether 470 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 1: drop Spot makes it possible to receive a telegram message 471 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:15,480 Speaker 1: about changes to specific crypto prices when a specific coin 472 00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,960 Speaker 1: token or n f T is sent, when there's a 473 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 1: change in a coin or token's liquidity, whenever a coin 474 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 1: or token is being swapped on the decks, and even 475 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 1: lets you track specific wallets. The ether dropped bot has 476 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 1: been around since eighteen and it supports popular e v 477 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 1: M chains such as Ethereum, Polygon, Phantom, Arbitrum, Avalanche, and 478 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 1: BSc I. Suspect that the ether drop spot will add 479 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: additional e v M chains as time goes on What's 480 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 1: amazing is that the ether drops bot has a free version, 481 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 1: and though there's a limit to how many items you 482 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 1: can track and how many messages you can receive from 483 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 1: most of you, the free version should be more than enough, 484 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:57,280 Speaker 1: and if it's not, then the annual subscription options are 485 00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 1: very affordable. The only downst to ether drop spot is 486 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 1: that it can take some time to set up due 487 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 1: to all the options it offers. Luckily, ether drops published 488 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 1: a detailed tutorial on Medium and I'll leave a link 489 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 1: to that in the description if you need it. It 490 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 1: should go without saying that having the ability to closely 491 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 1: track whatever coin, token, while it or trade you want 492 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 1: is very valuable and there's no limit to what you 493 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 1: could do with ether drop Spot. I personally use it 494 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 1: to keep track of the largest holders of my favorite 495 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 1: coins and tokens, the whales, if you will. This relates 496 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 1: to the token unlock spot, which lets you see when 497 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 1: coins and tokens allocated to investors like early investors and 498 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 1: the team are about to vest a k a unlock. 499 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 1: This is important because a large unlock almost always results 500 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,160 Speaker 1: in a lot of cell pressure for that coin or token, 501 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:54,440 Speaker 1: as insider sell at a huge profit. Whereas the Ether 502 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,920 Speaker 1: drop spot can take some time to set up, the 503 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: Token unlockspot shouldn't take more than two seconds to get sorted. 504 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 1: That's because there's only two options unlock info, which lets 505 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 1: you see all the coins and tokens the box supports, 506 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,760 Speaker 1: and alert, which lets you set alerts for said coins 507 00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 1: and tokens. If you're not a fan of Telegram, you 508 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 1: can stick to using the Token unlocks website, which also 509 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 1: gives more information about token omics, including the total supply, 510 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,400 Speaker 1: the circulating supply, what percentage of the total supply is 511 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:27,239 Speaker 1: still waiting to be unlocked, and when. Clicking on a 512 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 1: coin or token provides even more detailed information about token omics, 513 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 1: including the initial distribution of the coin or token, the 514 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 1: vesting schedule, and how much cell pressure the next unlock 515 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 1: is going to create for the coin or token based 516 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 1: on its current value. If you scroll down, you can 517 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,960 Speaker 1: even see how much of that coin or token is 518 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 1: waiting to vest two specific entities, be it early investors, 519 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 1: the team, or the foundation that legally owns the project. 520 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 1: This can help you get a better sense of how 521 00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 1: much cell pressure could occur when the next unlock come around. 522 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,040 Speaker 1: If you are a fan of Telegram. I strongly suggest 523 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 1: using the box to set alerts for these unlocks, and 524 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 1: you should also take a second to check out our 525 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 1: video about the best crypto Telegram groups that will be 526 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 1: down in the description. Anyhow, the fourth crypto tool to 527 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,640 Speaker 1: add to your belt is another combo, and that's coin 528 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 1: Dix and stable Fish. Funny names, I know, but these 529 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:27,800 Speaker 1: are seriously two of the most useful tools in cryptocurrency. 530 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 1: That's because they both tell you where you can find 531 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 1: the highest yields on your coins and tokens. For those 532 00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:36,959 Speaker 1: who don't know, you can earn passive income on your 533 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 1: cryptocurrency by either lending it out on a decentralized lending 534 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 1: protocol to earn interest, or providing it as liquidity for 535 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 1: a trading pair on a decentralized exchange to earn a 536 00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:51,640 Speaker 1: portion of trading fees for that trading pair. Note that 537 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 1: this is not the same as depositing your crypto with 538 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 1: a centralized crypto platform to earn interest. As we've recently 539 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,480 Speaker 1: seen with these centralized plat forms, there's a lot of 540 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:05,040 Speaker 1: risk involved, and that's ultimately because you don't own your 541 00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 1: assets when you hand them over to a third party. 542 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 1: When you lend out your crypto or provided as liquidity 543 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 1: on a dex, you technically retain ownership of those assets. However, 544 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 1: this doesn't mean that defy yields don't come with risk, because, 545 00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,960 Speaker 1: as the saying goes, where there is a reward, there 546 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,920 Speaker 1: is also risk or something like that. In the case 547 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 1: of DEFY, risks can include anything from unforeseen bugs that 548 00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:34,240 Speaker 1: can be exploited, hacks of centralized elements of protocols such 549 00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:38,640 Speaker 1: as bridges, and damaging arbitrage trades such as flash loan attacks. 550 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 1: There's also a risk of censorship because of the Tornado 551 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:47,520 Speaker 1: cash situation, but let's not go there. With that information 552 00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 1: in mind. Coin dix is best for volatile coins and tokens, 553 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 1: and the website keeps track of DeFi yields on just 554 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 1: about every protocol on just about every smart contract cryptocurrency 555 00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 1: there is. What's nice is that poindix lets you sought 556 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 1: protocols by yield and by total value locked, which makes 557 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,439 Speaker 1: it easy to identify which yield opportunities are high risk. 558 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,360 Speaker 1: As a rule of thumb, a low tv L or 559 00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 1: an abnormally high a p Y is a sign that 560 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,600 Speaker 1: the yield opportunity you're looking at is extremely high risk. 561 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,960 Speaker 1: If it ticks both of those boxes, you might want 562 00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: to consider looking elsewhere. Conversely, a very high tv L 563 00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,560 Speaker 1: and a normal or low a p Y is a 564 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,399 Speaker 1: sign that the yield opportunity you're looking at carries much 565 00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:34,279 Speaker 1: lower risks. Even then, though, it's important to do your 566 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,720 Speaker 1: due diligence by checking how long the protocol has been around, 567 00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:41,040 Speaker 1: whether it has any audits, and if it's been hacked 568 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 1: in the past. Also, be aware that yield opportunities on 569 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,839 Speaker 1: newer or lesser known smart contract cryptocurrencies inherently carry a 570 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,440 Speaker 1: high risk, regardless of the yield, total value locked, or 571 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 1: quality of the protocol, because with these cryptocurrencies there could 572 00:34:56,280 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 1: be unforeseen risks at the blockchain level. Another thing to 573 00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,240 Speaker 1: keep in mind is that the price of the coin 574 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,359 Speaker 1: or token you're lending out or providing as liquidity will 575 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,840 Speaker 1: likely drop in value over time because of the cryptobar market. 576 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 1: This might be fine if you plan on hoddling that 577 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,160 Speaker 1: coin or token for the long term, but this obviously 578 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 1: won't be the case for everyone. That's why you might 579 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,479 Speaker 1: be better off sticking to stable Fish, which tracks yield 580 00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:32,120 Speaker 1: opportunities for stable coins on most major smart contract cryptocurrencies. Logically, 581 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 1: the same rules apply when it comes to the A 582 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:39,520 Speaker 1: P Y TVL and protocol and blockchain risk analysis, but 583 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,759 Speaker 1: there are two other things to keep in mind. The 584 00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,400 Speaker 1: first is that the yield for many of these stable 585 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 1: coin opportunities is paid out in a volatile token, meaning 586 00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,680 Speaker 1: that the actual yield might not be worth that much 587 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:55,040 Speaker 1: in dollar terms. You can see what the yield is 588 00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:57,719 Speaker 1: being paid in by clicking on the yield opportunity that 589 00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:01,319 Speaker 1: interests you. The second thing to consider is that some 590 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:05,000 Speaker 1: of these yield opportunities are quite complex, and many involve 591 00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:09,080 Speaker 1: lesser known decentralized stable coins that could depeg if the 592 00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:12,440 Speaker 1: crypto market collapses or if there's a loss in confidence 593 00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,520 Speaker 1: in the mint and burn mechanism. The last thing you 594 00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,759 Speaker 1: want is to accidentally put your dry powder into the 595 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:22,960 Speaker 1: next U s T. Now, the last two crypto tools 596 00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,480 Speaker 1: I want to discuss today are related to n f 597 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 1: T s and these are crypto Slam and n f 598 00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:31,960 Speaker 1: T Nerds. Crypto Slam is arguably the best place to 599 00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:34,839 Speaker 1: check n f T prices, especially since the site has 600 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,920 Speaker 1: a dedicated tab for fan tokens, which are becoming an 601 00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:42,120 Speaker 1: increasingly popular type of crypto collectible. In addition to prices, 602 00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,040 Speaker 1: crypto slam shows you both the number of buyers and 603 00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 1: the number of transactions for every n f T collection 604 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,080 Speaker 1: over the last day, seven days, thirty days, and all time. 605 00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,480 Speaker 1: This makes it easy to spot low quality n f 606 00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:58,400 Speaker 1: T collections, since they'll often have a small number of 607 00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:02,560 Speaker 1: buyers with few trans actions. Crypto slam also lets you 608 00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:06,320 Speaker 1: see which smart contract cryptocurrencies have been the most popular 609 00:37:06,360 --> 00:37:08,400 Speaker 1: for n f T s over the four periods of 610 00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,719 Speaker 1: time I just mentioned. The popularity of n f T 611 00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,200 Speaker 1: related smart contract cryptocurrencies is something that you should watch 612 00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,800 Speaker 1: very closely if you're one of the folks who believe 613 00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:20,200 Speaker 1: it's going to be an eight hundred billion dollar industry 614 00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,359 Speaker 1: in the coming years. Even if you're not taking note 615 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 1: of trends in smart contract crypto popularity relative to n 616 00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,200 Speaker 1: f T s can help you make some profits in 617 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:32,040 Speaker 1: the short term, and between you and me, I happen 618 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,799 Speaker 1: to think that it's the smart contract crypto coins that 619 00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,640 Speaker 1: will capture most of the n f T value in 620 00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:41,359 Speaker 1: the long term too. If you insist on being an 621 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,640 Speaker 1: n f T d gen, you can refer to crypto 622 00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,960 Speaker 1: slams upcoming n f T drops tab and make use 623 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,040 Speaker 1: of the second n f T tool in your belt, 624 00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:52,959 Speaker 1: and that's n FT Nerds. N f T Nerds must 625 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,560 Speaker 1: be one of the craziest crypto websites I've ever come across. 626 00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,840 Speaker 1: That's because it provides detailed data about n f T 627 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:03,880 Speaker 1: mints and trades on ethereum in real time. I mean, seriously, 628 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:06,439 Speaker 1: if you get a moment, check out the mints tab 629 00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:10,040 Speaker 1: to see new n f T collections being generated every block, 630 00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,040 Speaker 1: and check out the fire host tab to see n 631 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,759 Speaker 1: f T trades on all the different marketplaces. N f 632 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 1: T Nerds even lets you instantly buy n f T 633 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,400 Speaker 1: s and automatically trade n f T s if you 634 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,080 Speaker 1: purchase their premium service, which can be paid for in 635 00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:30,200 Speaker 1: directly from your browser extension wallet, no debit card or 636 00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:34,960 Speaker 1: credit cards needed, because hey, this is crypto. Now. This 637 00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:38,239 Speaker 1: barely scratches the surface of all the features on n 638 00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,480 Speaker 1: f T Nerds, But I must stress that the usefulness 639 00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:44,560 Speaker 1: of this n f T tool depends on your ability 640 00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,000 Speaker 1: to do your research about all these n f T collections. 641 00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,279 Speaker 1: If you need help with that, you can refer to 642 00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,560 Speaker 1: my video about how to find quality n f T 643 00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:56,360 Speaker 1: collections and the link to That tutorial will be in 644 00:38:56,400 --> 00:39:00,239 Speaker 1: the description. Thank you so much for listening to the 645 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,960 Speaker 1: coin Bureau podcast. If you'd like to learn more about cryptocurrency, 646 00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,080 Speaker 1: you can visit our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com 647 00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,000 Speaker 1: forward slash coin Bureau. You can also go to coin 648 00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:13,400 Speaker 1: bureau dot com for loads more information about all things crypto. 649 00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,920 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at at coin bureau 650 00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,200 Speaker 1: or one word, and I'm also active on TikTok and 651 00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:20,160 Speaker 1: Instagram too,