1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 2: It was time for the long awaited, overdue celebration to 3 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 2: comments back. 4 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: Get back goes to win, not just to go. 5 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 6 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: Throwing in Joe Specular. I'm saying it's a catch touchdown. 7 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 8 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: go to wind. That's incredible, big bank, small banks. 9 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 2: I like to make money, all right. This is the 10 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 2: ultimate Kabaki want to. 11 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, 12 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: presented by MGM, the King of Sports Books. I'm your host, 13 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: Brendan glass Sheen. This episode is our annual Super Bowl 14 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: Gambling Guide with the Director of Research and Media at 15 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: the Action Network, Evan Abrams Hi, Heaven, how you doing well? 16 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 2: What's up? Man? This is this is the pit in 17 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 2: me of everything, right, this is the Super Bowl. We've 18 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 2: got two teams left, and this is honestly, I like 19 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 2: it when there's fewer teams because I like diving in 20 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 2: more in the different angles, and especially Super Bowl week 21 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 2: because when you've been doing this for years, you kind 22 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 2: of go back to previous data and you say, oh, 23 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 2: that's interesting or that, or update one or two things. 24 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 2: A it's a nice tradition. 25 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: See I think I pick it apart as a casual 26 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:25,479 Speaker 1: that follows the NFL. But working with you and working 27 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,160 Speaker 1: at this company now the last couple of years, dude, 28 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 1: you pick this thing apart. So I am. I am 29 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: excited when I was told I was going to do 30 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 1: this with you. It's weird being here at night because 31 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: I haven't done the recap pods. It did those last year, 32 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: But I'm excited to dive in. So the whole idea 33 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: of this episode. This is our first episode since the 34 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 1: recap from Championship Sunday, but the goal of this podcast 35 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: episode is to provide some of the many trends in 36 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: data deep dives into what you'll hear across our network 37 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: in the weeks ahead. And you're going to hear stuff everywhere. 38 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: We understand that. So as we record on a Monday night, 39 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: the current line Francisco a one and a half point 40 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:05,560 Speaker 1: favorite total for Chiefs and Niners forty seven and a half. 41 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 1: Some housekeeping before we dive in later this week. Here's 42 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 1: the podcast lineup for the week before the Super Bowl. 43 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,519 Speaker 1: Later this week, Chris Raybond, Sean Kerner, they will join 44 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 1: forces provide an episode featuring their favorite early Super Bowl 45 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 1: prop bets. Next week we'll have our Super Bowl Sunday 46 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: six pack with Raybon and Stuckey that'll come out on Monday, 47 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 1: plus our normal best Bets and our annual Super Bowl 48 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: Propabalooza episodes. Those are coming out next week as well. 49 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 1: For those new to the podcast. We'll also get back 50 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: into UFC with the NFL winding down, so I'll be 51 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: with Sean Zarello and Billy Ward at the end of 52 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: the week on Friday for UFC Best Bets, and that 53 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: again starts this Friday this week. Next week we'll get 54 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: into UFC. So those of you that are looking for 55 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: other stuff, Okay, so we thought Evan, if your fall, 56 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 1: if you followed Evan on Twitter or you read Evan 57 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: on Action Network, there's a lot there. So I want 58 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 1: as a consumer, Evan as an avid fan of Action Network, 59 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: and if I'm if I'm an audience member, I'm a listener. Sure, 60 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: Evan abrams lead off three thoughts, Three thoughts that jump 61 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:15,080 Speaker 1: to your mind for Super Bowl fifty eight Chiefs Niners 62 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 1: number one. 63 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 2: All right, so these are just some fun things off 64 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 2: the top of my head. When you see the line, 65 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 2: you see the matchup. But the first thing is the 66 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 2: line itself. So forty nine Ers look ahead was minus three, 67 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 2: then it actually opened San Francisco minus two and a half, 68 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:30,639 Speaker 2: got as low as one now sitting at one and 69 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 2: a half. So I think the interesting thing is different 70 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 2: super Bowls that have opened with one favorite and closed 71 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 2: with another. And it actually happened last year with the 72 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 2: Chiefs and Eagles. Chiefs open minus two, Eagles closed minus 73 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 2: one and a half. And it's only happened two other 74 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 2: times in Super Bowl history. Super Bowl forty nine Patriots Seahawks. 75 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 2: Seahawks open a favorite, Patriots close a favorite. Super Bowl 76 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 2: forty eight year before that. Now that's interesting. I didn't 77 00:03:57,520 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: even realize that it was back to back years as well, 78 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: and it's going back to back years here if it 79 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 2: happens again. Super Bowl forty eight Seahawks Broncos. Seahawks open 80 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 2: minus one, Broncos closed minus one and a half. So 81 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 2: that was number one I felt, you know, the tightness 82 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 2: of the line and the fact that the lines come 83 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 2: down so much was interesting. 84 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: Which I wonder to my thought from that of all 85 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: those teams in there, sure outside of Philadelphia, which that's 86 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:25,400 Speaker 1: not true because Philadelphia was in the game against New 87 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: England only a few years before that. These are repeat 88 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: teams in the last decade, last five years, we've seen 89 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 1: in the game. Meaning there's pedigree, there's everyone's considering. I 90 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 1: think public perception is, how does Tom Brady perform in 91 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl? Peyton Manning facing the Seahawks. Now he's 92 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 1: got an opportunity again against Carolina. Like repeat contenders or 93 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: repeat participants in the game. That's what I mind to 94 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: be fair though. 95 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 2: To be fair though, if my memory has me correct, 96 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 2: Chiefs Eagles closest game possible, Seahawks Patriots closest game possible, 97 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: and then a blowout with Seahawks Broncos. So maybe I 98 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 2: was trying to come up with some sort of theme 99 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 2: with those matchups, but to me, just intriguing and shows 100 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 2: how close the markets are. 101 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 1: Yep, without question, all right, what's number two? 102 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 2: Number two? So NFL playoff teams that becomes smaller underdogs, 103 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,799 Speaker 2: an example being plus four to plus three are actually 104 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 2: forty five twenty and two against the spread sixty nine 105 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 2: percent over the last twenty years. Now, that's eighty two 106 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 2: percent in a six point teaser, so around you know, 107 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 2: break even there but stays in the game. So casey 108 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 2: opened plus two and a half, we talked about it 109 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 2: now down to one and a half, so they would 110 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 2: fit into this scenario. And even in these playoffs, this 111 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 2: trend has worked. And if you look in a conference 112 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 2: championship and Super Bowl twelve and five against the spread 113 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 2: in this scenario covering by four points per game, so 114 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 2: underdog gets smaller from the open. It's been successful in 115 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 2: the past, and that was one thing I grabbed from 116 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 2: the previous few weeks that match this matchup. 117 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,280 Speaker 1: Okay, and again, this is Monday after Championship Sunday, so 118 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 1: you wonder what changes between now and exactly the end 119 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 1: of next week. If it flips potentially right, who knows 120 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: it is? 121 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, at this point the line can go anywhere. 122 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: No question. So okay, And what's the third thing that 123 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: catches your eye early on? 124 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 2: So these are just some great Super Bowl facts. These 125 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 2: are things that you're gonna hear all week. You know, 126 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 2: one of these, I'm almost positive Adam Schefter is going 127 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 2: to tweet out because he does it every year. But 128 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 2: these are just some fun stuff. My favorite. So this 129 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 2: is poised to be the sixteenth consecutive Super Bowl where 130 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 2: the favorite will be laying fewer than seven points, extending 131 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: the longest streak in Super Bowl history. So recently, all 132 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 2: the matchups have been pretty tight, and we haven't had 133 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:48,040 Speaker 2: a real seven C wildcard bad enough where the favorite's 134 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 2: been that high. I find that interesting. Number two and 135 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 2: this is this is great. The team wearing white jerseys 136 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 2: have won sixteen of the last nineteen Super Bowls. Guaranteed 137 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 2: when the jersey come out, you will see that stat. 138 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: AND's and then real quick, so just refresh my memory 139 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,279 Speaker 1: if you know this, does the whome team? Do you 140 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: get to decide? Who gets to decide what they wear? 141 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,679 Speaker 2: I feel like it changes by conference, but I actually 142 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 2: don't remember. I believe it's different depending on because I 143 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 2: know AFC and nfcs have been in white before, so 144 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 2: that would that's my initial thought. And then the third thing, 145 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 2: team that has scored last has won each of the 146 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 2: last eighteen Super Bowls. The last Super Bowl where the 147 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 2: team has scored last and lost was Patriots Eagles two 148 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: thousand and four, two thousand and five. So just some 149 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 2: fun things, and listen, you're gonna hear a lot of 150 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 2: different things throughout this week and on this network. 151 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: But we'll start there and to be clear to win 152 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: they won outright, they won straight up. That wasn't a 153 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: covert correct, Okay, alrighty, that's good stuff. I always find 154 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: it like, I know, you pick apart your your facts data, dude, 155 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: but I was like, all right, but what's catching Evan's attention? 156 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 1: Because if it's catching your attention, I get a feeling 157 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: that I should let it catch my attention or the 158 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: audience's attention. So just big picture super Bowl history, fifty 159 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: eighth Super Bowl. What are some overall game trends that 160 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: we should have in mind or that are it's just 161 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: the facts. 162 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 2: Man, Yeah, these are the top of most stories. They 163 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 2: don't mean too much, but they're interesting. Nonetheless, So favorites 164 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 2: thirty six and twenty one, straight up and always fun. 165 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 2: They're twenty seven, twenty eight and two against the spread, 166 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 2: so basically five hundred across history, and totals exactly the 167 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 2: same twenty seven, twenty eight and one. There was no 168 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 2: total in Super Bowl one, so can't make up anything there. 169 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 2: And the thing that's interesting super Bowl underdogs nine and 170 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 2: seven straight up in the last sixteen Super Bowls, including 171 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 2: eleven and five against the spread so pretty much a 172 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 2: coin flip, and that kind of says something as well 173 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 2: to the fact that the spread hasn't been large in 174 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 2: the game, So sets haven't been massive in recent history, right. 175 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: And that points to your point that maybe schefter puts 176 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: this out there that this is the sixteenth straight Super 177 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: Bowl with a favorite laying fewer than seven. 178 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 2: That there it is, Yeah, via ESPN stats, an info 179 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 2: that'll come from there, it'd be great. But here, let's 180 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 2: keep going on this one because I know this one's 181 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 2: going to be tossed out a little bit. So super 182 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: Bowl winners are obviously fifty seven and oh straight up, 183 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 2: but they are forty eight seven and two against the 184 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 2: spread eighty seven percent. And to go a little further, 185 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 2: Rams won the Super Bowl but fail to cover in 186 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. That was the first time it had 187 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 2: happened since two thousand and nine where the favorite didn't cover, 188 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 2: and super Bowl winners with a spread of six or 189 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: less now twenty nine and one against the spread, with 190 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,599 Speaker 2: that Rams game being the one off the hook and 191 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 2: again four or less twenty two and oh against the spread. 192 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 2: So we've never seen a game close under that mark 193 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 2: and not have the same team cover the spread. So 194 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 2: this year, if we get up to two two and 195 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 2: a half, maybe we get maybe a one point game. 196 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 2: We haven't seen that with a tight spread ever, so 197 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 2: we'll see. 198 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: And yeah, for those that don't remember the twenty twenty 199 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:20,559 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one season, so the twenty one Winter Super 200 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: Bowl Rams minus four they won twenty three to twenty 201 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: against the Bengals. Yep, and that I think was a 202 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 1: good day for the books. They needed the RAM to 203 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: win but not cover, and that played out. How about 204 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,680 Speaker 1: the total and for these two teams specifically, right, Kansas 205 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 1: City has just to me my opinion, this Kansas City 206 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 1: team reminds me a lot of the Patriots in eighteen nineteen, 207 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: where you've got an elite quarterback, elite tight end, running game, 208 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 1: elite defense, you can run the ball. They're figuring it out. 209 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: They found their identity. At the end of the season, 210 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: they didn't look great, but they found a way molding 211 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: a young up and coming receiver. I realized Julian Edelman 212 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: was already established, but g Rice feels like that guy 213 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 1: who's come alive and now all of a sudden they 214 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: can score, which they did against Miami and Buffalo but 215 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: then they can win a game the way they did 216 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: against Baltimore. Then you have San Francisco. They're sample size 217 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 1: for the entire season. They're getting to twenty eight a night, 218 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,319 Speaker 1: twenty eight, twenty nine in that range of twenty nine 219 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,959 Speaker 1: to thirty five, so four plus touchdowns, a field goal 220 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 1: or two there with Moody, what about the total that 221 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: we have to know? And again the total right now 222 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 1: on a Monday night as we record here ahead of 223 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty eight, about two weeks out, forty seven 224 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 1: and a half. 225 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, completely different teams when it comes to these because 226 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 2: you got KC at fourteen and six to the under 227 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 2: this year, which would be the best mark in the NFL, 228 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 2: and you have San Francisco at ten to eight and 229 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 2: one to the over. And with so many games going 230 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 2: under the total this year, not too many teams leaning 231 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 2: towards the over there. And like you said, San Francisco 232 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 2: going over team totals pretty normally and Kansas City pretty 233 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,680 Speaker 2: much not so very very different. But let's look at 234 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 2: Super Bowls for a second. Pretty even so under is 235 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 2: eleven and nine in the last twenty Super Bowls. But 236 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 2: it's worth noting from Action Network and Action Labs, which 237 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:11,559 Speaker 2: tracks betting percentages and tickets for every game. The over 238 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 2: has received public support sixteen times in those twenty games, 239 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 2: so the over is seven to nine in those games. 240 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 2: But pretty much every super Bowl you're going to see 241 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 2: tickets on the over. 242 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: Uh. 243 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 2: And if I look right now, sixty two percent of 244 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 2: tickets on the over right now on forty seven and 245 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 2: a half. So looks to be a continuing history. 246 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 1: And the lowest super Bowl total is the last fifteen years. 247 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 1: This is interesting because it's recent. 248 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, so last fifteen years, this would be one, two, three, four, 249 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 2: so tied for the fifth lowest. And it's actually the 250 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 2: lowest since Super Bowl fifty, which went under. But of 251 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 2: those on two, three, four, five games to clote forty 252 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,280 Speaker 2: seven and a half or less in the last fifteen years, 253 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 2: it's actually four and one to the over, so lower 254 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 2: total they've just squeaked by, except for that Super Bowl fifty, 255 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 2: which we just looked up ourselves, twenty four to ten 256 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 2: final didn't get over the total there, But yeah, this 257 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 2: one is lower, especially when you look at recent history. 258 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 2: Even if you look let's see right now, I want 259 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 2: to look at recent history on totals and see so yeah, 260 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 2: last year was fifty one and a half. Year before 261 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,560 Speaker 2: that forty nine, then you had fifty five, fifty three 262 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 2: and a half, and fifty five and a half in 263 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 2: three straight Super Bowls. So this one about two three 264 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: points lower than usual lately. 265 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 1: And just using recent memory, like the chatter last year 266 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: in the build up to the game, how hurt was 267 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts. Turns out he was okay after two weeks 268 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 1: of prep for the Super Bowl. This year, it doesn't 269 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 1: really concern a quarterback, but Joe Tooney, Willie Gay, those 270 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 1: are some key guys that factored in this past weekend. 271 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: Tony specifically for the Kansas City Chiefs and for Sam 272 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,439 Speaker 1: fran Deebo Samuel a lot of would he be a 273 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,080 Speaker 1: decoy fifty to fifty shot? He looked pretty good at 274 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: the NFC Title Game, and that was without they did 275 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 1: have the buy earlier in this postseason, but they didn't 276 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: have they weren't coming off a bye having played Green Bay. 277 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: So like that's where I feel like when the number 278 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: moves a key injury was Like the Hurts thing was 279 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: a big part of last year. I think, oh yeah, 280 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 1: leaned under. 281 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 2: I would say two things about the total. I think 282 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 2: Kansas City's defense and their second half defense, probably more specifically, 283 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 2: which we'll get to in a second, is something that 284 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 2: brings this total down by two three points because I 285 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 2: believe three points were scored in the second half that 286 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 2: Baltimore game, and they're just an absolute serpent when it 287 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 2: comes to locking up teams and making sure they look 288 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 2: just foolish, especially lately, so I think you couldn't make 289 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 2: the total much higher. I did look up one thing 290 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 2: before we move on to the next section. So indoors 291 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 2: Super Bowls obviously, this one being in Allegiance Aium in Vegas, 292 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 2: only eleven and nine to the under, and it's very 293 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 2: very tight. So the average total in those twenty games 294 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 2: forty seven point six and the average points in those 295 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 2: games forty seven point eight. So ignore it, no edge, 296 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 2: it's indoors, but it all feels just about right. 297 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: That's Allegiant Stadium since it opened. 298 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 2: Yeah no, no, no, those are the twenty Super Bowls. 299 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 2: So those twenty Super Bowls, which is eleven and nine 300 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 2: to the under inside, those are average total in those 301 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 2: games forty seven to six and forty seven eight points 302 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 2: scored in those games combined. So basically exactly even with 303 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 2: the total in this one. So it is indoors. But 304 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 2: given all the factors, I think it's a it's a 305 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 2: non factor. 306 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 1: Let's take a deeper dive on team outlooks team specific. 307 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: We'll start with the underdog Kansas City their season, So 308 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: when folks are looking at all the data, try to 309 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 1: try to not let recency bias from this last couple 310 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: of weeks. So for Kansas City, Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore, big picture, 311 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 1: entire season, what do people have to know the facts 312 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 1: on Kansas City from a season standpoint? 313 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 2: Well, first, I think you need to start and let's 314 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 2: use the actual numbers of people. Get them with those 315 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 2: second half unders from Kansas City, because to me, it's 316 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 2: a part of their identity, it's a part of who 317 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 2: they are, especially the momentum they've gotten in their five 318 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 2: game ATS winning streak. Second half unders eighteen and two 319 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 2: fourth quarter unders nineteen to one, so just absolutely stopping 320 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 2: teams in their tracks. The second trend I think you 321 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 2: probably need to know is just the fact Mahomes hasn't 322 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 2: thrown an interception in six straight playoff games, eleven touchdowns, 323 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,880 Speaker 2: no picks. He had three touchdowns and no picks in 324 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 2: last year's Super Bowl, and the big storyline going into 325 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 2: that Super Bowl was the fact that he had thrown 326 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 2: four interceptions, two each in his previous Super Bowls, So 327 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 2: went into last year no issues. And let's just talk 328 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 2: about currently. He hasn't thrown an interception since Christmas straight games. 329 00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 2: He did get sacked late in the fourth quarter, which 330 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 2: broke his let me remember this three game no sack 331 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 2: interception streak. But even then, he's getting the ball out quickly. 332 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 2: He's scrambling when needed, and that's what probably makes him 333 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 2: the most dangerous at the moment. He's just not making mistakes. 334 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 2: And lastly, we talked about basically the Chiefs having the 335 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 2: best defense. Well this year they are fifth in EPA 336 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 2: per play including the playoffs, and that is the best 337 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 2: Mahomes has had. And just look at these other ranks 338 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 2: when it comes to EPA player for defense fifteenth, twenty fourth, nineteenth, eighteenth, 339 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 2: and twenty seventh. So yeah, the scoring's not there, but 340 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 2: he's figured out other ways and that defense is absolutely stellar. 341 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: Best defense he has had. And folks were saying that 342 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: early in the year they'll figure out the offense, they'll 343 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 1: get it together. They never really did. They really never 344 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,159 Speaker 1: did until now until the postseason. In moments right like 345 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: that Buffalo game, the efficiency was off the charts with 346 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: time of possession favoring Buffalo. But the key to those 347 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: games is most people found out Miami was pretty banged up, 348 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 1: Buffalo having a practice squad guy calling plays in the 349 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 1: middle of their defense. And then just another note on 350 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. Fourteen picks in the regular season, the most 351 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: in his career. As you've mentioned, he's found a way 352 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: to get the ball out quickly and not turn it over, 353 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 1: and this year was the second most. He's been sacked, 354 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 1: the second most of his career, twenty seven sacks in 355 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: sixteen games. 356 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 2: I had one more thing on the Chiefs. If you 357 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 2: were under a rock and missed the entire year and 358 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 2: say you watched last year, it's worth noting they went 359 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 2: eight and twelve against the spread last year. They're eleven 360 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 2: to seven and one this year. So just a different 361 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,239 Speaker 2: in terms of the numbers. And it's not like there 362 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 2: was such a stigma last year that they weren't covering games, 363 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 2: because you know, some of those lines were a little bigger. 364 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 2: That just wasn't the case here. Because they played so poorly. 365 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 1: It's a good point the numbers came to look at 366 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:57,840 Speaker 1: just we're not going to do props here on this episode. 367 00:18:57,960 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: That will be for Propa Paloza next week. But they 368 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 1: did as Kelsey numbers came down substantially. Pachecko, even on 369 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: the ground, number was in the sixty range pretty much 370 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 1: for this entire run, and that number creeps up again 371 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: for this week. It's in the mid to high sixties. 372 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: Even then, that's it reflects the game total, the game spread, 373 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,359 Speaker 1: and even their individual stars. That's been at reflection. So 374 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 1: we brought up Mahomes. The quarterback plays a big part 375 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 1: in any playoff run, any Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes in 376 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: the play now this one, I think many if you've 377 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: been tuned in to Evan and you watch our stuff, 378 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,439 Speaker 1: and if you any of our contributors at Action Network, 379 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 1: if you follow them in the free award winning Action 380 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,919 Speaker 1: Network app. Anytime there's a Chiefs game, Patrick Mahomes and 381 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 1: the playoffs and as an underdog, and he's been able 382 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 1: to win on the road, which that's been solved in 383 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 1: two games so far. 384 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, it has. I think it's worth noting when talking 385 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 2: about the underdog role. It's a little bit even more 386 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 2: than Mahomes. So since twenty sixteen, Chiefs are sixteen to 387 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 2: five and one against the spread as underdogs, second best 388 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 2: in the NFL behind King Dog himself Mike Tomlin in 389 00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 2: the stat raw raw ra. So the Chiefs themselves have 390 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 2: played well in this role, and it's worth noting. So 391 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,439 Speaker 2: Chiefs opened two and a half point dogs just the 392 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,440 Speaker 2: eleventh time Mahomes is open two and a half or higher. 393 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,640 Speaker 2: He's nine zero to one against the spread in those 394 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 2: games eight and two straight up and ten and ohero 395 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,320 Speaker 2: and a six point teaser, covering the games by eight 396 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:32,960 Speaker 2: point seven points per game. He's won and covered five 397 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:34,640 Speaker 2: in a row since twenty nineteen, So. 398 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,399 Speaker 1: To be very clear, to be very clear, this is 399 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:41,439 Speaker 1: Mahomes all together or just postseason all together. So got it. 400 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 2: Anytime he's opened two and a half points are higher, 401 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 2: this has been the scenario for him. Hasn't lost a 402 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 2: game since twenty nineteen, covered five in a row basically 403 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:59,160 Speaker 2: whenever it's tight, whenever we're deciding maybe someone else can 404 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 2: beat him. Only two have and he's won five in 405 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 2: a row and hasn't lost in four years. That's just 406 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,719 Speaker 2: the scenario you're going against with this man, pretty crazy. 407 00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 2: Nine and three straight up as an underdog, ten one 408 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 2: and one against the spread in all scenarios as a dog, 409 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 2: and that nine and three mark best for any quarterback 410 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 2: in the Super Bowl era minimum ten starts, and the 411 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 2: ones that I did look up, I believe it was 412 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 2: before Buffalo is last twenty years. I kind of wanted 413 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 2: to take a look at super Bowl winning quarterbacks. So 414 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 2: you've already won your ring, yep, and how you performed 415 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 2: as an underdog when we doubted you. And I said 416 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 2: to myself, well before the ring, they're obviously going to 417 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 2: be incredible, right because that's future thinking. You know, they've 418 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,119 Speaker 2: won the ring, they've made the run. So before the 419 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 2: ring they're twenty five and eight against the spread as underdogs. 420 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 2: I get it. You know, they make the run, they 421 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 2: win the games after the ring thirty five sixteen and 422 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 2: two sixty nine percent, including thirteen and four since twenty eighteen. 423 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 2: So right now, that is Mahomes. It's been Mahomes the 424 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 2: last two weeks. Just something interesting there. 425 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: How about Kansas City's head coach Andy Reid, And we'll 426 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,040 Speaker 1: do the same thing for those wondering we'll do the 427 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 1: same thing on the San France side, but we're gonna 428 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,959 Speaker 1: go into order coach quarterback, So that's the Mahomes breakdown. 429 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 1: What about Andy Reid, who of course has history in 430 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 1: this game with Philadelphia too, going. 431 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 2: Back now, yeah, his fifth super Bowl appearance and facing 432 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan who's in his second Super Bowl appearance, and 433 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 2: the number people are probably going to be curious about. 434 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 2: Coaching experience in the Super Bowl doesn't really matter. Coaches 435 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 2: that have had more experience just nineteen and seventeen straight up, 436 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 2: seventeen and nineteen against the spread, and even one step 437 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 2: further when they have a two plus super Bowl experience 438 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 2: gap just eleven and fourteen straight up nine fifteen and 439 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 2: one against the spread. So, as I will discuss later 440 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 2: this week, quarterback tends to mean a little bit more 441 00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 2: with experience, but also not a huge factor. And coach 442 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 2: is definitely not a factor. But Reed's been here and 443 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 2: obviously we've seen this matchup before, so uh, there will 444 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 2: be some experience in that one. 445 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: I would add A big part of that that might 446 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: get overlooked is typically if your team makes a deep run. 447 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 1: We saw this with Philadelphia you'll lose your offensive coordinator 448 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 1: like Spags is the is the exception for for Kansas City, 449 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: like Spags has been there now for a while and 450 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 1: he's hooked at the hip of Andy Reid. But coordinators changing. 451 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,879 Speaker 1: We've seen this with Belichick for years, like, well, if 452 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,919 Speaker 1: you're making that kind of run, you're gonna get looks 453 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:36,720 Speaker 1: to get You're gonna get phone calls. If you're making 454 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: it all the way to the championship Sunday, you're gonna 455 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 1: get phone calls for OC jobs or part of me 456 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: being an OC or a DC. You're gonna get calls 457 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 1: to be a head coach somewhere else. And that might 458 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 1: play a part into it too. So not just the coach, 459 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 1: the head coach, but the staff altogether. There's there's a 460 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,680 Speaker 1: there's turnover for staffs they get to this stage too. 461 00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a well put tree. You know, the tree 462 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 2: is firm. No one's leaving you, no leaves are falling. 463 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,159 Speaker 2: To make your point, though, Spagnola's fifth Super Bowl appearance 464 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 2: as a decoordinator tied for most all the time with 465 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 2: Dick Leboux. So you're right, I mean with the Giants, 466 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 2: with the Chiefs, he's been there. It's really funny that 467 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 2: every offseason his name is never called, he's never interviewed, 468 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,360 Speaker 2: nobody wants to talk to him. But yet he has 469 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,200 Speaker 2: a you know, enough Super Bowl rings to fillip a 470 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 2: few fingers. So that's fun in itself. And then you 471 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 2: talked about the matchup. So head coaches to meet in 472 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,720 Speaker 2: two Super Bowls to be Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan, 473 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 2: Kauflin and Belichick, Jimmy Johnson and Marv Levy and Chuck 474 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 2: Nol and Tom Landry and the interesting one whoever won 475 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 2: the first one won the second. So maybe Reid does 476 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 2: have an advantage here. 477 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 1: Andy Reid is high on that wins list, and it's 478 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:51,400 Speaker 1: high on that playoff wins list too. But making if 479 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,639 Speaker 1: he stays for another couple of years, he's only a 480 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: couple of years younger than Belichick. Look out for Andy Reid, 481 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: especially if they win this game super Bowl fifty eight. 482 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 1: The podcast is proudly presented by BETTMGM. Used bonus code 483 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: action when signing up to get up to one hundred 484 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:08,120 Speaker 1: and fifty eight dollars in bonus bets when you bet 485 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: five dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 486 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 487 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,000 Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. 488 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:28,120 Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's 489 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 1: dive into San Francisco. What do we have to know 490 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 1: about the Niners for their season and what they've put together. 491 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 1: We tease this a little bit. Scoring a bunch of points. 492 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, scoring a bunch of points. But from San Francisco's 493 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 2: point of view, the fourth quarter to me was one 494 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 2: thing I wanted to put out there, fourteen and five 495 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 2: fourth quarter ats this year, and you even saw it. 496 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 2: I mean, they didn't really need to do it a 497 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:54,680 Speaker 2: ton against Detroit, considering that Detroit was three and seventeen 498 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 2: this season against a third quarter spread and they ended 499 00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 2: up losing seventeen to nothing in the third quarter, which 500 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,600 Speaker 2: is just a wild statistic. San Francisco didn't really need 501 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 2: to put out their fourth quarter that they usually do, 502 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,199 Speaker 2: but yes, fourteen and five, so that comeback kind of 503 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 2: has been or at least putting the nail on the 504 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 2: Coffin has been in their DNA this year and you 505 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 2: had mentioned it before. Let's just talk about quarterbacks to 506 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 2: make the Super Bowl for the forty nine ers. So 507 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:28,399 Speaker 2: you have Montana Young, Kaepernick, Garoppolo, and Party. They've lost 508 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 2: the last two with Kaepernick and Garoppolo and they won 509 00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 2: all the others with Steve Young and Montana. So a 510 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,400 Speaker 2: little bit of a negative history heading into this one, 511 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 2: and we talked about it before. Maybe Shanahan can find 512 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 2: his guy, but if not, San Francisco would have lost 513 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 2: three straight. 514 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 1: Okay, and they're like a they fiill like a powerhouse 515 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 1: high school team getting in the game a couple times, 516 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 1: a good point, but can they get the quarterback right? 517 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,640 Speaker 1: And the last two I think they've they've had excellent seasons, 518 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:01,439 Speaker 1: but in the game which they look Grooppolo, they were 519 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 1: right there final drive, ball in your hands. And that 520 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 1: goes back to what you said, did they score last? No, 521 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,120 Speaker 1: Chiefs did, Niers had a chance. Nighters had the ball 522 00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,160 Speaker 1: in their hands, didn't score, So it's not like it's 523 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:13,359 Speaker 1: not like they didn't have a chance to come back 524 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 1: and score. They had the ball last. I can't remember 525 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 1: with Kaepernick if they had the ball last, I think 526 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:19,400 Speaker 1: with Joe Flack Audi. 527 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 2: Remember all I remember is Emmanuel Sanders. He was so 528 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 2: close the other angle from San Francisco's point of view. 529 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 2: And this is probably one of the more interesting ones 530 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 2: from at least me, because I'm just fascinated with these 531 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 2: different stats. But they're just the second team in the 532 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 2: Super Bowl era to have a three plus game ATS 533 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:42,280 Speaker 2: losing streak during the Super Bowl. The other I'm only asking, 534 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 2: I'm only I'm only putting you on the spot because 535 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 2: it's your team. It'd be the two thousand and seven Patriots. 536 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 2: They lost five in a row against the spread, and 537 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 2: during the game I look back and I couldn't find 538 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,399 Speaker 2: another team. So I'm pretty sure they are the second 539 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,200 Speaker 2: team three plus game ATS losing streak entering the Super Bowl, 540 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 2: which says something winning by three, winning by three, and 541 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 2: they're a team who weren't underdogs all year and favorites 542 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,639 Speaker 2: entering the playoffs, which usually is a lethal lethal combo. 543 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 2: To only win by three points in both of those games. 544 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 2: It's just a very interesting story also entering the Super Bowl, 545 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 2: where it's pick them, like there's you know, they've been 546 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,160 Speaker 2: laying ten points and seven points in back to back games, 547 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:27,679 Speaker 2: and now you just need them to win if you 548 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:28,679 Speaker 2: bet on them. 549 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 1: Right, and the key there though in their spot one 550 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 1: seed already locked it in. So you're including the Rams 551 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 1: game week eighteen, yeah, okay? And then of course Green 552 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 1: Bay Detroit a goot it And for New England in 553 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,280 Speaker 1: seven they played the Giants the last week of the 554 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 1: season in Week seventeen, and that was more so and 555 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 1: their their spot being undefeated, I was just to keep 556 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 1: the undefeated season alive. But a straight up last week 557 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: eighteen having rested guys. 558 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 2: I'd have to go back and look, but I'd imagine 559 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 2: those lines were humongous because there's thirteen in fourteens and 560 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 2: seventeens and all sorts of crazy things later in the season. 561 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:08,360 Speaker 2: But interesting, nonetheless, when you think about the Niners juggernaut status, 562 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 2: which I guess, other than Baltimore has probably been the 563 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,680 Speaker 2: team we've labeled them this year, interesting nonetheless that they 564 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,959 Speaker 2: fall into that category, especially with being favorite in all 565 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 2: the games and favorite entering the playoffs. Good interesting profile. 566 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 1: Sam Darnold started Week eighteen also and the Niners closed 567 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites, and I think the 568 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: Rams were already in too. I think the Rams had 569 00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 1: already secured their spot. That's why they started Carson wentz so. 570 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 1: But the data is the data. It's three straight games 571 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:39,000 Speaker 1: they haven't covered going into the Super Bowl. What about 572 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: more on the Niners as far as as far as 573 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel, because he had a lot of attention going 574 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 1: into this NFC Championship game with his status, and he 575 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,360 Speaker 1: wound up playing, and not only played, he was outstanding, 576 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,880 Speaker 1: sored over his receiving overs and he was more than 577 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 1: just a decoy. 578 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you saw in the state last week, 579 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,840 Speaker 2: and I think they're probably worth noting. Thirteen and one 580 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,880 Speaker 2: straight up now ten and four against the spreading games 581 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,800 Speaker 2: he starts and finishes, he tends to matter for that team. 582 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 2: He has the most I believe it's receptions and targets 583 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,720 Speaker 2: when San Francisco is ahead in the game this year, 584 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 2: So not only is he important from coming behind, he's 585 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 2: important for shutting the coffin and winning the game in 586 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 2: the end, and they usually end up giving him the 587 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 2: ball in that scenario. It's really him and McCaffrey. But 588 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 2: when you lose Deebo, when he's not a part of 589 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 2: the scenario. That's when it starts to get a little hairy, 590 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 2: And this is one I looked up. So just in general, 591 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,280 Speaker 2: when he gets at least one target in a game, 592 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 2: the Niners are forty five and thirteen straight up. When 593 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,240 Speaker 2: he doesn't, they're nine to ten. It's pretty blanket. But 594 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 2: he just he's part of their winning formula. 595 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 1: Forty nine ers with Kyle Shanahan. Because we did Andy 596 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 1: Reid Reid's fifth super Bowl, you said it, Shanahan's second. 597 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:58,880 Speaker 1: They're only one of a handful of duos or the 598 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 1: one v one matchup to occur a second time in 599 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 1: the last coughlin in Belichick. What should we know about Shanahan? 600 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 2: So let's start with the good. He is six and 601 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 2: oh straight up as a favorite in the playoffs, which 602 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 2: to me actually says something. There's no upset he's done well. 603 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 2: He's also six and oh straight up at home in 604 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 2: the playoffs. He is the only coach since two thousand 605 00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 2: with both of those marks five and oh were better. 606 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 2: I think there's positives, and I think the fact that 607 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:33,000 Speaker 2: he's made these runs with Purdy and Garoppolo is actually 608 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,280 Speaker 2: one of the more impressive feats. To be honest, with 609 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 2: you based off what we've seen from Garoppolo since then. 610 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,680 Speaker 2: But the stats are the stats, and I put it 611 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 2: out a bunch this weekend when obviously they were trailing 612 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,400 Speaker 2: by fourteen plus points. You know, it's tough. He's now 613 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 2: three and twenty nine straight up and three and twenty 614 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 2: nine against the spread when trailing by fourteen points or 615 00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 2: more at any time. 616 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: And one of those wins was Sunday. 617 00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, and we just saw one of those wins, and 618 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 2: then I can give you another stat, but I'm not 619 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 2: going to that basically took you out for the Packers 620 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,320 Speaker 2: game since they were trailing in that one too. So 621 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 2: all the trailing stats are fun. They have a lot 622 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 2: to do with twenty seventeen to twenty twenty San Francisco 623 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:17,320 Speaker 2: when there were some really, really terrible quarterbacks. But also, 624 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 2: you know, the data is the data, right, So the 625 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 2: forty nine ers are zero to thirty nine when trailing 626 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 2: by eight or more points in the fourth quarter. Now, 627 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,200 Speaker 2: that hasn't happened in either of these games because they 628 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 2: came back so quickly. But they've had issues, and so 629 00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 2: do every other coach, right, Like, if you're going to say, 630 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 2: you know, every other coach by trailing by eight or 631 00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 2: more points in the fourth quarter, probably a similar terrible 632 00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:44,760 Speaker 2: win percentage. But for Shanahan, it's a stigma. So we're 633 00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 2: going to see if they trail in this game, how 634 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:51,640 Speaker 2: they react, especially with a KC team that has absolutely 635 00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 2: dominated time and possession right in the second half through. 636 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,240 Speaker 1: The second half under that's what's fascinating. I mean, Green 637 00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 1: Bay had a great year for their standard. Coming in, 638 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 1: you found the cour quarterback. You think defensively, holes Detroit 639 00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: pass defense question marks, holes can be scored on if 640 00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 1: you're having just an average day. This is a different 641 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 1: This is a different beast in s in Kansas City. 642 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 2: The one that gets me too. And listen, all these 643 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 2: stats are terrible, but five and thirty five straight up 644 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,640 Speaker 2: when trailing by three points or more entering the fourth 645 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,560 Speaker 2: quarter doesn't feel like a lot of points to be down. 646 00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:30,640 Speaker 2: And a lot of these stats are just listen, the 647 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 2: quarterbacks there were terrible, but it's it's not great. So 648 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 2: that's the that's the angle on Shanahan. I think the 649 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 2: other angle, like I said, that's probably more important is 650 00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 2: the six and oh mark, right, Like he's winning these 651 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 2: games and figuring out ways to win. Now, not necessarily. 652 00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 2: He's lost I believe three in a row against the 653 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 2: spread in the playoffs, the use seven and one ats 654 00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,480 Speaker 2: before that. So he's a good playoff coach and even 655 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 2: among the best when it comes to some of these 656 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 2: records in terms of win percentage. But you know, some 657 00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:01,800 Speaker 2: of these stats are kind of bad. 658 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 1: Third that third quarter Sunday night felt like an hour 659 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 1: and a half. 660 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:06,960 Speaker 2: Yeah. 661 00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,920 Speaker 1: I kept looking at friends like there's still three minutes 662 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:14,520 Speaker 1: left in the third and they've taken the lead. So 663 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,279 Speaker 1: that makes it. But that goes back. That's a whole 664 00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,360 Speaker 1: nother discussion, and I'm sure the guys recap this in 665 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,080 Speaker 1: the recap episode with Campbell and the decision making. But 666 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,560 Speaker 1: let's wrap with, uh, Rock Party, mister irrelevant, brock Party, 667 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:29,120 Speaker 1: because uh, some people might simplify it, Evan and look 668 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,279 Speaker 1: at it and go, I'm gonna bet against our on 669 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,719 Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes against Rock Party. So what do we need 670 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 1: to know about Rock Party that people must consider? 671 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 2: I mean, the three things, And I'll start with number one, 672 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,280 Speaker 2: best yards per attempt for any quarterback in the NFL 673 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,680 Speaker 2: this year against the Blitz. So if Kansas City and 674 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,280 Speaker 2: SPAGS decides to bring it. He should be pretty equipped 675 00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 2: to deal with it, which is surprising considering. But that's 676 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,960 Speaker 2: number one, Number two. So Purty was the third quarterback 677 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 2: to starting back to back conference championship game in his 678 00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:06,200 Speaker 2: first two seasons. Perdy, Roethlisberger, Sanchez, Sanchez never made it. 679 00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,719 Speaker 2: Big Ben did and won it. So we're gonna see 680 00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,799 Speaker 2: if Perdy can join that journey, and then I'll leave 681 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:16,240 Speaker 2: with this. So Perdy is now fifteen and eleven against 682 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 2: spread as a quarterback seven and one ats when he's 683 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,280 Speaker 2: a favorite of three and a half or lesser an underdog, 684 00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,560 Speaker 2: and eight and ten as a favorite of four or more. 685 00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:28,919 Speaker 2: This is a tight game where again San Francisco doesn't 686 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:30,439 Speaker 2: need to cover ten. They don't need to cover seven, 687 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,120 Speaker 2: they don't even need to cover four. They need to 688 00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:36,440 Speaker 2: win that his last two, yeah, hasn't covered his last two, 689 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:40,000 Speaker 2: and but those are again I don't what was I 690 00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,160 Speaker 2: don't remember the spread was in Week eighteen, five. 691 00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,120 Speaker 1: And a half, but he didn't play it was it was? 692 00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,960 Speaker 2: It was? Uh, but even Darnold was favored by five 693 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,480 Speaker 2: and a half, right, right, Yeah, So even in that scenario, 694 00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 2: this is just you know, under three, especially under two, 695 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 2: we're looking at right now. Uh, it's just it's a 696 00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:57,800 Speaker 2: different ballgame. 697 00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,319 Speaker 1: Wow. I know there will be more from you as 698 00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,640 Speaker 1: we get closer to Super Bowl fifty eight, super Bowl Sunday, 699 00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 1: which is February eleventh. Evan, I think that's I think 700 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 1: that's perfect. I think there's a good table setter for 701 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,200 Speaker 1: people to sink their teeth into. Anything else you'd like 702 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,120 Speaker 1: to add before we say goodbye. 703 00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, you said February eleventh, the third latest super Bowl 704 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,280 Speaker 2: in NFL history. Maybe at one point we'll be seeing 705 00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,400 Speaker 2: March madness in the super Bowl. God, I hope not. 706 00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:24,920 Speaker 2: But this feels good. 707 00:36:25,160 --> 00:36:27,279 Speaker 1: The fact that you already kind of mapped out when 708 00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 1: we'll get a super Bowl in March. You're a maniac. 709 00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,440 Speaker 1: You're a maniac, but you're also the director of Research 710 00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,839 Speaker 1: and Media Action Network, Kevin Abrams, thank you very much 711 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: for chatting and picking this apart. Good stuff. 712 00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:40,040 Speaker 2: Thank you. 713 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 1: That'll do it for this episode of the Action Network podcast, 714 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,760 Speaker 1: presented by bet mgm our annual Super Bowl Gambling Guide, 715 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,319 Speaker 1: a bunch of data, deep dives and trends, and we'll 716 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,160 Speaker 1: have more as we build up to Super Bowl fifty eight. 717 00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,640 Speaker 1: I'm Brendan glass Sheen thanks for listening, everybody, and enjoy 718 00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 1: all the content of the Action networks leading up to 719 00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:20,480 Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty eight. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 720 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,720 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 721 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 722 00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:27,480 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler