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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing in job spect.

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Speaker 2: We're setting it to cash to We'll see most gamblers

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Speaker 2: when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 4: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 4: I like to make money.

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Speaker 5: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you want to pull,

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Speaker 5: and we are underway.

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Speaker 6: I welcome to the Week seventeen Action Network NFL Betting Podcast.

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Speaker 6: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your week

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Speaker 6: seventeen betting preview. I'm joined as always by my Action

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Speaker 6: Network colleague and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck,

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Speaker 6: Happy Holiday. How is everything going, and how's your week sixteen?

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Speaker 4: It was setting up as a disaster. Miami gets another

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Speaker 4: miracle win, and I needed one of these teams to

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Speaker 4: lose for the Ravens and to get into the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: From I mean, I'm obviously a fan, but more importantly

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Speaker 4: for my future, a bunch of futures that I've been

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Speaker 4: taking over the past few weeks so in order for

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Speaker 4: them to control their own destiny, I either needed the

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Speaker 4: Raiders to win. It looked like the Raiders are gonna win,

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Speaker 4: and then they didn't. Mis Fitzpatrick has to come in.

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Speaker 1: And stay the day again fits magic magic.

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Speaker 4: Then I needed the Steelers to come through for the Ravens,

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Speaker 4: and I bet the Steelers, and they are getting destroyed early. Fortunately,

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Speaker 4: and they got a couple fortunate calls too. They came

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Speaker 4: back in the second half and one. Now the Ravens

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Speaker 4: do control their own destiny. I mean, we're setting up

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Speaker 4: for a while Week seventeen where there are currently think

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Speaker 4: are eighteen teams, eighteen teams that are still alive for

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Speaker 4: the plus one team. One team is locked into a seed.

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Speaker 4: That's the Chiefs. That's it, because the Seahawks pull the upside.

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Speaker 4: The Packers aren't even locked into the one ced day

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Speaker 4: after wins. So it should be a wild Week seventeen.

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Speaker 4: But I was happy that the Steelers came through for

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Speaker 4: me and for the Ravens. So let's get to work

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Speaker 4: on Week seventeen.

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Speaker 2: Let's do it.

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Speaker 6: And before we get into the six pack, a couple

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Speaker 6: of quick reminders. Number One, if you plan to bet

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Speaker 6: on the NFL this season and haven't downloaded the free

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Speaker 6: award winning Action Network app, What Are You Doing? It's

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Speaker 6: got betting tools, analysis from Me, Stucky and the whole

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Speaker 6: Action Network team, and it lets you track every bet

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Speaker 6: that you make. Number two If you want a chance

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Speaker 6: at a free Vegas vacation, this is your last chance

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Speaker 6: to enter our free custom weekly DFS contest, the Action

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Speaker 6: Pods Tournament of Champions presented by bet MGM. This week's

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Speaker 6: top five finishers secure the last five spots in next

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Speaker 6: week's wild Card Weekend Grand Finale. So follow the link

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Speaker 6: in this episode descript and joined for free today. And

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Speaker 6: number three a quick programming note about the Action Network

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Speaker 6: podcast in the coming weeks. Don't worry, Stuck and I

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Speaker 6: will continue our NFL betting episodes every Thursday till the

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Speaker 6: end of the postseason. Same goes for our Fantasy Flex

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Speaker 6: shows with Me Friedman and Corner Stucky and Colin Wilson's

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Speaker 6: new Bowl Game Preview is now out covering the college

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Speaker 6: football playoffs. On top of that, our PGA Tour betting

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Speaker 6: episodes return this week, and if you're looking to bet basketball,

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Speaker 6: our weekly NBA show with Matt Moore tips off Wednesday,

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Speaker 6: January sixth, and our popular college basketball episodes with Stuckey

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Speaker 6: right here returns Friday, January fifteenth. And finally, we want

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Speaker 6: to give a shout out to The Favorites podcast hosted

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Speaker 6: by our boss Chad Millman and program where Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 6: They ended up twenty fourth out of eight hundred entrants

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Speaker 6: in the DraftKings Pro Football Pickham National Championship, finishing in

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Speaker 6: the money after a five to week sixteen.

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Speaker 2: Well done, fos. I don't know how to manage anybody.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get into it, stuck.

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Speaker 6: Let's crack open the final Sunday six pack of the

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty regular season.

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Speaker 1: They're steeper action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: You still have a ten point lead. You're up first.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, last week, the Steers came through for me. The

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Speaker 4: Raiders came through for me. The Niners did as well,

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Speaker 4: but I switched it up and went with the Texans

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Speaker 4: instead of the Niners. And I also the Jets over.

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Speaker 4: But I can't be mad with that because that was

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Speaker 4: before all of the Browns are receivers were announced out.

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Speaker 4: But the Texans were such a disappointment and the offense

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Speaker 4: you give three hundred and seventy seven passing yards to

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Speaker 4: Brandon Allen. I don't think he's ever third for more

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Speaker 4: than two twenty And like the Texans, what they've done

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Speaker 4: is they've gone to this four to three base just

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Speaker 4: don stop. So all they're doing, they're selling out to

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Speaker 4: stop the run because they even bad against the run.

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Speaker 4: We know they're bad against the pass with their corners

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Speaker 4: who were awful, and they let Brandon out and throw

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Speaker 4: like fifteen screens for two hundred yards screens and dump

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Speaker 4: offs to the left side over. It was infuriating. So

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Speaker 4: our coach is pep talk this week.

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Speaker 6: His week's coaches pep Talk comes to us from Chevy

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Speaker 6: Chase in the Howaday Classic National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation.

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Speaker 4: I'm dedicated to the Texans last week.

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Speaker 5: Shut up on that already. The man has only one look.

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Speaker 5: For Christ's sake, doesn't anyone notice this? I feel like

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Speaker 5: I'm taking crazy films. You've got that di nothing not that.

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Speaker 5: And I will be on Bunky's call if I have

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Speaker 5: you ruined this for me, because if you can't get

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Speaker 5: the job done.

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Speaker 4: Then I will.

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Speaker 2: Having said that, you.

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Speaker 4: Have to have a short term memory. My number one

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Speaker 4: pick this week is going to be the Houston Texans

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Speaker 4: plus seven and a half at ben MGM at home

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Speaker 4: against the Tennessee Titans, who do need to win. And

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Speaker 4: I have an article out on actionetwork dot com, the

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Speaker 4: action of Work app about teams that have to win

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Speaker 4: against teams with no incentive. In Week seventeen, since two

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Speaker 4: thousand and three, they've gone fifteen and twenty three against

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Speaker 4: the spread. If they're laying over a field goal favored

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Speaker 4: by more than a field goal plus, they're nine to

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Speaker 4: nineteen against the spread. Small sample size, but if you

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Speaker 4: go back twenty five years, in the final two weeks

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Speaker 4: of the season, sides close to one hundred and fifty games.

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Speaker 4: These teams that must win to either keep their playoff

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Speaker 4: hopes alive or avoid needing help in the final two

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Speaker 4: weeks against teams with zero motivation, either they're already locked

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Speaker 4: up or they're eliminated. Betting on the team that is

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Speaker 4: eliminated in said about sixty percent against the spread clip.

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Speaker 4: Why is that, Well, a lot of times everyone in

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Speaker 4: the world was the better of the team that has

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Speaker 4: to win, so you can get an inflated number and

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Speaker 4: the other team who is usually eliminated. This is kind

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Speaker 4: of their Super Bowl. It's a team that's been dead

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Speaker 4: out of the playoffs and now all of a sudden

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Speaker 4: they they have a chance to get up for one

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Speaker 4: week and spoil usually now weeks of teams a division

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Speaker 4: rivals season. So I think that this line is inflated.

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Speaker 4: I make it six, so I'll gladly takes seven and

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Speaker 4: a half. I know the defense is atrocious for Houston,

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Speaker 4: but the defense or Tennessee is atrocious as well. I

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Speaker 4: think Houston can keep up. Keep in mind Houston last

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Speaker 4: what was it last month or about a month and

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Speaker 4: a half ago, they almost beat or probably should have

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Speaker 4: beat I had them in that game, and it was

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Speaker 4: a horrendous beat. It went to overtime after a last

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Speaker 4: second Titans touchdown, and the Texans ended up losing.

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Speaker 6: What a night.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the overtime beats up had this year crazy

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Speaker 4: forgot about that one. And then Tennessee ends up getting

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Speaker 4: the winning the coin flip and in overtime they beat

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Speaker 4: the Texans forty two to thirty six in overtime. That

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Speaker 4: was back in October eighteenth. By the way, that line

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Speaker 4: was Tennessee minus four at home. I mean, so now

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Speaker 4: I'm getting seven and a half at home with the Texans.

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Speaker 4: I know that the Texans have lost Will Full or

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Speaker 4: they've lost for Roby, and they've just been atrocious since.

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Speaker 4: But this is the team that's been in a lot

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Speaker 4: of games. They've played a lot of one possessions. Think

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Speaker 4: about all their games with the Cult that they almost won.

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Speaker 4: They're generally in games because of how Will Watson is playing.

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Speaker 4: And I'm also banking on the fact that this is

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Speaker 4: their super Bowl and Ruin the Titans aren't locked. The

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Speaker 4: Titans need to win, so you could see the Titans

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Speaker 4: play a little tight here. But I'm backing on the

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Speaker 4: fact that Houston's defense plays up this week after JJ

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Speaker 4: Watt basically called them out, you know, impassioned speech after

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Speaker 4: the game, basically like this is for fans, and so

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Speaker 4: I think that you at least get a spirited effort.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how many stops they can really get

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Speaker 4: against Tennessee, but the Tennessee defense is just really bad,

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Speaker 4: and Watson should be able to put up points here,

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Speaker 4: and even if they get down ten to fourteen, he

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Speaker 4: can give me a backdoor late. I make it six,

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Speaker 4: give me Houston plus seven a half. Hopefully I'm not

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Speaker 4: cursing them again next week.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, I meet this line seven, so I don't

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Speaker 6: have a ton of value on it. I do get

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Speaker 6: the situational spot. I'm a little worried about it used

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Speaker 6: to just because of their defense against Brandon now And

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Speaker 6: I mean that that really, like was eye opening him done,

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Speaker 6: putting up thirty plus points and three hundred something plus

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Speaker 6: like it was one of the top fancy quarterbacks last week.

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Speaker 2: It was ridiculous.

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Speaker 6: It also worries me that the Titans kind of came

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Speaker 6: out flat last week. They're probably looking ahead to this one,

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Speaker 6: but you can't really argue with the numbers about the

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Speaker 6: you know, teams with no incentive generally are the right side.

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Speaker 6: I know there's probably one team I think that we

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Speaker 6: both like that that does have incentive, but we'll talk

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Speaker 6: about that in a bit.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to go with them for my first pick.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick, I'm going.

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Speaker 6: To go with the line that I actually have the

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Speaker 6: most difference with between the market and my projection, and

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Speaker 6: that is the Buffalo Bills. So for the first for

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Speaker 6: my first pick and the second overall pick in the

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Speaker 6: week seventeen Sunday six pack, going with the Buffalo Bills

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Speaker 6: minus one and a half against the Miami Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: This team keeps getting lucky.

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Speaker 6: I mean, Ryan Fitzpatrick saving the day, you know, in

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Speaker 6: just an improbable situation gets them.

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Speaker 2: To to you know, to this spot. Now I make

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Speaker 2: this line five. It's still wanting to happen.

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Speaker 6: And that's with you know, I'm expecting Cole Beasley to

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Speaker 6: miss this game, John Brown to miss this game and

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Speaker 6: still make this line five. Buffalo is a quality team

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Speaker 6: all around, especially since they've gotten you know, healthy run defense.

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Speaker 6: You look at their DVOA. Their number five in DVOA,

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Speaker 6: but they're number three in weighted DVOA and miamis number ten.

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Speaker 2: So Miami's been solid.

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Speaker 6: But you know, Miami's number sixteen on offense, number eleven

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Speaker 6: on defense, and that offense actually goes down a little bit.

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Speaker 2: When you have TUA.

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Speaker 6: So you know, any kind of you know, will we

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Speaker 6: see how much of each will we see this week?

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Speaker 6: It remains to be seen. But you know, I don't

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Speaker 6: think Miami's luck is going to continue. Even though I

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Speaker 6: have a lot of respect for Brian Flores, I have

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Speaker 6: just as much for Sean McDermott, and I don't think

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Speaker 6: that Miami should just be you know, a one and

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Speaker 6: a half point underdog in this spot, not because of

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Speaker 6: home field advantage, but just because of the you know,

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Speaker 6: the matchup between the two teams.

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Speaker 2: I think this is it.

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Speaker 6: Should be at least a field goal, and I have

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Speaker 6: it even more than that. So I love Buffalo against

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Speaker 6: Miami every just from Josh Allen. And you know, yes,

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Speaker 6: Miami plays good pass defense, but Josh Allen's been beating

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Speaker 6: good pass defenses all season long. You add in the

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Speaker 6: fact that you know, the Bills have two quality running backs.

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Speaker 6: Josh Allen can run the football himself. And on the

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Speaker 6: other side, you know, with this Bill's defense playing well,

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Speaker 6: I don't know how Miami, you know, it's gonna be

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Speaker 6: tough for them. I think to just keep it within

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Speaker 6: that you know, kind of striking distance that they've been

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Speaker 6: you know, within for these last you know, from most

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Speaker 6: of the years essentially. So you know, Buffalo number thirteen

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Speaker 6: in in defensive DVOA with trending up, I think that

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Speaker 6: they give Miami a lot of problems. And I think

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Speaker 6: this is an even coaching matchup, which usually you don't

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Speaker 6: have with Brian Flores these days.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look at John Gruden, and he's been in

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Speaker 2: the league forever and had no.

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Speaker 6: Just zero match for Flora. But this week, Buffalo great spot.

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Speaker 6: I make the more than a field They'll love them

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Speaker 6: minus one and a half.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't disagree with you. I mean I make

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Speaker 4: this line closer to six, and I mean yeah, I've

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Speaker 4: hated the Dolphins all year. Right now, the Bills are

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Speaker 4: in my top five, tied with the Packers. Like my

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Speaker 4: top five right now power ratings are Chiefs, Saints, Ravens, Bucks,

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Speaker 4: and then Packers and Bills. Those are kind of the

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Speaker 4: clear top five. Well, I guess top six. So I mean,

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Speaker 4: I love everything that the Bills are doing. But here's

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Speaker 4: where I would pushed back on why this play might

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Speaker 4: not cash. I like the Bills first half. I will

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Speaker 4: be on the Bills first half. The Dolphins, their first

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Speaker 4: half offense every week is just dreadful. They come out

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Speaker 4: slow and a lot and their second offens be good

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Speaker 4: a lot of times because Ryan Fitzpatrick has to come

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Speaker 4: in and save the day. Their offense is really good

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Speaker 4: with Ryan fitz Patrick. I don't know why they keep

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Speaker 4: going with toa. Their offense is not good with Tua.

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Speaker 4: So this week maybe they get behind and Ryan Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 4: has to come in. And also, the Bills have it

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Speaker 4: and set up to win this week. If they win,

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Speaker 4: they clinch the two seat, and mcdermoty has come out

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Speaker 4: and said they want the highest seat possible. And if

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Speaker 4: you get the two and you assume that the Ravens

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Speaker 4: beat the Bengals, you avoid the Ravens in the first round,

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Speaker 4: which is just too a lot of teams want to do.

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Speaker 4: So here's the thing. The Bills also clinched the number

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Speaker 4: two seed. If the Steelers lose, the Steelers are sitting

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Speaker 4: their starters. So if the Steelers are getting trucked, they're

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Speaker 4: catching double digits at Cleveland, then you could see the

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Speaker 4: Bills potentially pull their starters in the second half and

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Speaker 4: Miami comes back, this will just be a fitting h

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Speaker 4: and to the Dolphin season of luck. And then the

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Speaker 4: Bills benchal startus. Fitzpatrick comes in and leads them back

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Speaker 4: and they win late. So I don't disagree that. I

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Speaker 4: don't know if that's even going to play out. The

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Speaker 4: Steelers the Mason Rudolph revenge game. We'll get to that game.

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Speaker 4: Who knows they could easily hang around in this game

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Speaker 4: then the Bills would have to play to the end.

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Speaker 4: So I don't disagree with you, but that's kind of

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Speaker 4: a scenario where it could come back to Honyo. Why

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Speaker 4: like the first half more than the game.

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Speaker 2: I mean, very fair.

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Speaker 6: I mean, I'm looking at it from the perspective of

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Speaker 6: number one. It's just a huge difference between you know,

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Speaker 6: the projection and what the line is. But Number two,

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Speaker 6: even with the Steelers, is ten point dogs, and we

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Speaker 6: will talk about them. Uh you know, even if it

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Speaker 6: was let's say a ten point game, I don't think

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Speaker 6: that's necessarily enough to pull your starters with enough time.

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Speaker 6: I mean, unless it happens, you know, super early and

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Speaker 6: then balloons from there. But you know, I expect that

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Speaker 6: game to be more competitive than the than the market thing.

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Speaker 6: So you know, I'm just going with you know, you

296
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Speaker 6: could kind of Poco in pretty much every scenario here

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Speaker 6: for Week seventeen. So I'm just going with my biggest

298
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Speaker 6: edge for number one. But but yeah, definitely I'm gonna

299
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Speaker 6: be on some first half as well. And uh, just

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Speaker 6: like just like fading Washington in the first half, you know, certainty,

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Speaker 6: you just got to do it.

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Speaker 4: The Bills make me move on up, throw your hands up,

303
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Speaker 4: and throw your hair back.

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Speaker 3: Come on, now, the Bills.

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Speaker 4: I'm making it happen.

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Speaker 2: Now, stand up, not come on a shout?

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Speaker 4: All right? For my second pick of the Sunday six

308
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Speaker 4: pack and the third overall, I'm going with New York

309
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:42,600
Speaker 4: Football Giants plus two at bet MGM. I got some

310
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,800
Speaker 4: plus three. I would buy it up to minus one

311
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 4: twenty if you can, but for the sick contest that

312
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:51,440
Speaker 4: doesn't really matter. Plus two at bet MGM they're hosting

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Speaker 4: the Cowboys. I make this line the true pick. This

314
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Speaker 4: game could be for the division. The winner of this

315
00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,280
Speaker 4: game wins the division. The Giant the six and ten

316
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Speaker 4: Giants will win the division if they win and Washington

317
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Speaker 4: loses at Philadelphia on Sunday night. I think that this

318
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Speaker 4: is just a great time to sell Dallas and everyone

319
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Speaker 4: wants to bet Dallas now. As soon as I saw

320
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Speaker 4: the three, I had a grab it. Especially since I

321
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Speaker 4: make a pick. I think it's a true coin flip.

322
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Speaker 4: Dallas has a lot of injuries in the defensive end.

323
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Speaker 4: Get outside of the ball to keep your eye on.

324
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Speaker 4: But look this Dallas team. What have they done the

325
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:24,880
Speaker 4: last few weeks to warrant all of a sudden, everyone

326
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Speaker 4: loves Dallas. They blew out Brandon Allen and the Bengals, Okay,

327
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Speaker 4: maybe the worst team in the NFL right now. They

328
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Speaker 4: beat the forty nine ers at home, they had a

329
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Speaker 4: million turnovers, they were out gaining four to fifty eight

330
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Speaker 4: to two ninety one. And then they beat the Eagles

331
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Speaker 4: with guys off the street playing in the secondary in

332
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Speaker 4: one of the most embarrassing secondary performances I've ever seen,

333
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Speaker 4: and a rookie quarterback making his first Roague start. So

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Speaker 4: this is just a pure sell high on the Cowboys.

335
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Speaker 4: Daniel Jones, baby is a little getting a little healthier

336
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Speaker 4: for this week. You can move around a little more.

337
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,520
Speaker 4: Even if not, I still make it a pick. I

338
00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:10,080
Speaker 4: think the Giants will be able to move the ball,

339
00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:13,639
Speaker 4: but this Cowboys defense is still atrocious. It's still Andy Dalton.

340
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Speaker 4: It's a true coin flip game. I'll take the points

341
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Speaker 4: with the home dog. Feels like all the pressures on

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Speaker 4: Dallas here too, like no one's expecting the Giants to win.

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Speaker 4: Everyone's kind of fell out of love with them. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: give me New York. I think they win this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.

346
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Speaker 6: I bet plus three when I saw that line as well.

347
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Speaker 6: I think, you know, going back to what you said,

348
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Speaker 6: and I think we even talked about this going in

349
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Speaker 6: the last week, like Dallas had been out gained, and

350
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Speaker 6: I belive it was four of their last five coming

351
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Speaker 6: into last week. This Giants defense generally has been very

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Speaker 6: well gained planned by Patrick Graham. So you don't expect

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Speaker 6: the Cowboys to run away with it the way they

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Speaker 6: did against the Eagles, you know, in that spot. I

355
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Speaker 6: just think the Giants keep it close, kind of similar

356
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Speaker 6: to what they've been doing all year. And because of

357
00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:03,119
Speaker 6: that Cowboys defense pretty banged up, you know, a lot

358
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Speaker 6: of people in the secondary. Then you have vander ash

359
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 6: he's not practicing, So I mean it's it could be

360
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 6: a very makeshift defense, and that's the kind of defense

361
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 6: that you that the Giants need to kind of hang

362
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Speaker 6: around and actually win a football game. And if you

363
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Speaker 6: look at the last Giants Cowboys matchup, you know, yes

364
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Speaker 6: it was you know, you had Dak Prescott start that game,

365
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Speaker 6: and so that could have influenced it a little bit,

366
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Speaker 6: but you just look at their defense. They go up

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Speaker 6: thirty four points to the Giants. The Giants haven't scored

368
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Speaker 6: more than twenty seven against any other team. So that

369
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Speaker 6: was by far the defense that the Giants had the

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Speaker 6: most success against this season.

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Speaker 2: So I like that pickle up.

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Speaker 4: Back In that game, the Giants were plus seven and

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Speaker 4: a half at Dallas, so let's call it one point

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Speaker 4: for home field, so that means they were plus five.

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Speaker 4: They would have been plus five and a half in

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Speaker 4: New York with Dak Prescott as the quarterback. Now plus

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Speaker 4: we were saying it's only a two and a half

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Speaker 4: of three difference between Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I don't think so. Plus, not only are you selling

380
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Speaker 4: the Cowboys high after you know, some results that I'm

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Speaker 4: not really that impressed by in the month of December.

382
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Speaker 4: In the month of December, New York played four playoff

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Speaker 4: teams or could be playoff teams. They you know, they

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00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,920
Speaker 4: beat they want at Seattle. Everyone has already forgotten about that.

385
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Speaker 4: Then they lost at home to Arizona in the game

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Speaker 4: where Daniel Jones shouldn't have been out there. They lost

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Speaker 4: to the Browns, and then they lost to the Raidings.

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Speaker 4: So they've lost three straight to potential playoff teams. I

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Speaker 4: think it's a good spot to buy them. Well.

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Speaker 6: Or the number four pick in the week seventeen Sunday

409
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 6: six pack, My second overall pick. I'm going with the

410
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:48,680
Speaker 6: Pittsburgh Steelers plus ten at Cleveland. I mean, this is

411
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 6: to me, this is just too good of a spot

412
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 6: to bet Pittsburgh as a as a big underdog. You know,

413
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,360
Speaker 6: Mike Tomlin has said, yeah, we're gonna start Rudopi quarterback,

414
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Speaker 6: but you know, we're not just resting our entire team,

415
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 6: and I don't think they will, to be honest, I mean,

416
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:04,960
Speaker 6: first of all, it's just it's not like preseason where

417
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 6: you can rest quite as many guys. And you look

418
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 6: at Pittsburgh and this team is always competitive. We've seen

419
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Speaker 6: this in some you know, in years past, in games

420
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Speaker 6: like this, but we've also seen this with Mason Rudolph.

421
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Speaker 6: When you look at Mike Tomlin as an underdog in

422
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 6: his career, first of all, you know he's great. You know,

423
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 6: he's thirty seven and nineteen against the spread, but you

424
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 6: look at him as an underdog without Big Ben against

425
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 6: the spread, Mike Tomlin is twelve and three with two pushes,

426
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 6: and then he's three and one with Mason Rudolph as

427
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 6: an underdog against the spread. So just because they're starting

428
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 6: Mason Rudolph here, and you know, may cut the snaps

429
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 6: of a few guys, like, this is still a team

430
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 6: that you know, can go four or five deep at receiver,

431
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 6: There's still some depth on defense, Like this is not

432
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 6: just a pushover team that the Browns are going to

433
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 6: blow out. I mean, look at the Browns last week.

434
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Speaker 6: I mean, are the Steelers with Mason Rudolph any worse

435
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,679
Speaker 6: than the Jets? You know, like no, but the Browns

436
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,880
Speaker 6: couldn't even beat them left with granted, with no receivers,

437
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 6: but the Browns use their receivers.

438
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 2: Less than most teams in the league anyway. So this

439
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 2: to me is a spot that I think the Steers

440
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 2: could actually win this game.

441
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 6: But I love getting Tom win as a dog, getting

442
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 6: Tom win without Big Ben getting you know this, Browns

443
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 6: obviously have a lot more motivation and incentive.

444
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 2: You know, Pittsburgh has some, but the Browns have a

445
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 2: lot more.

446
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 6: I just love Pittsburgh plus ten in this spot in

447
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 6: a game, I think they could very well pull off

448
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 6: the upset.

449
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, this doesn't technically fit fit in the mold of

450
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 4: teams with no teams that need to win, which the

451
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 4: Browns are versus team of no motivation, but it does.

452
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 4: I mean, the series could get the two seed if

453
00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 4: they would in the Bills lose, but they're basically resting

454
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 4: down and they're they're conceding the two seeds.

455
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 2: There have been a few.

456
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 4: Examples in the past where teams that need to win

457
00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 4: against teams that are sitting their starters already clinched and

458
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 4: they've lost. How about the Steelers last year regular season fatal.

459
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 4: They didn't win and get help against RG three and

460
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 4: the Ravens came out fired up. But look, it's a

461
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 4: division rival. They wanted to keep Pittsburgh out. I'm sure

462
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh wants to keep Cleveland out of the playoffs, their

463
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 4: division rival. It would be very Cleveland for them to

464
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 4: lose this game. By the way, the Jets could potentially

465
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 4: keep two teams out of the playoffs with their first

466
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:27,360
Speaker 4: two wins, the Rams and the Browns, which is amazing. Yeah,

467
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 4: two thousand and four Steelers plus ten, they were fifteen

468
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 4: and one. The Bills had won six straight. They needed

469
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 4: to win at home in Week seventeen for a shot

470
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 4: in the playoffs. They had to play the fifteen and

471
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 4: one Steelers. Sounds good, but the Steeers rested all their starters.

472
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 4: They played Tommy Maddox and they went on the road

473
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 4: and they beat the Bills is ten point hundred dogs,

474
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 4: So it happens. Bills fans will remember this.

475
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,920
Speaker 7: Hey, Stucky, this is your producer, Matt. Yes, Buffalo Bills

476
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 7: like myself do remember that game really well. That game

477
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 7: held sixteen years ago Saturday, was the last Buffalo Bills

478
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 7: game I attended in person, and it was also one

479
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 7: of the worst moments of my entire life. So beware

480
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 7: to Browns fans and fuck you for bringing it up.

481
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 4: So yeah, I don't necessarily just video. I think i'd

482
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,760
Speaker 4: make this line around seven seven, and I still have

483
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,199
Speaker 4: to see who's actually going to be out. But if

484
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 4: all of the Mason Rudolf revenge game, remember the last

485
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 4: time I played the Browns, that should be a cree

486
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 4: Ason Rudolph and Miles Garrett if they have a little rendezvous,

487
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 4: So yeah, all the pressures on the Browns here. The

488
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 4: Browns are also dealing with some COVID stuff, so keep

489
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 4: your eye on the injury re coorse. But a double digits,

490
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 4: especially over ten, I don't hate it.

491
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I make this game seven as well, so yeah,

492
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: right with you? All right?

493
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 4: For my final pick of the Sunday six pack and

494
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 4: the fifth overall, I'm going with the Los Angeles Rams

495
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 4: plus three at bet MGM we it looks as if

496
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 4: I mean, Jared Goff is out, Cooper Cup is out,

497
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,679
Speaker 4: and it's gonna be John Wolford x Way quarterback at

498
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 4: a really good statistical year's final year weak had a

499
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 4: really had really good numbers in the af too. He

500
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 4: can play a little bit. But here's the thing. I'm

501
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 4: he's not gonna be asked to go out there and

502
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 4: be Patrick Mahomes. That's not even Jared Goff. I hate

503
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: Jared go I think it's terrible. Jared Goff just gets

504
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 4: his handheld. I mean it's just it's a handheld offensive

505
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 4: short passes. Cooper Cup staptions will hurt, but he has

506
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 4: a lot of Wolford has a lot of chemistry with

507
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 4: some of these other guys from preseason, and that's who

508
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 4: he normally works with, you know, guys like Jefferson and company. So,

509
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 4: but it's just a run, run focused offense. I think

510
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 4: everyone else is gonna play up. It's like we have

511
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 4: our backup quarterback in here. I made this line of pick.

512
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 4: I think it's like a four to four and a

513
00:25:53,480 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 4: half point drop between Golf and Wolford, and now I

514
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 4: normally would have made it. Then Arizona a short favorite.

515
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 4: But Kyler Murray is not healthy. I'm assuming he's gonna

516
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 4: go here, but he's going to be limited. They're saying

517
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 4: he might might not be able to move that well,

518
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 4: Kingsbury has said that, and then I think that his

519
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 4: backup is like a South Dakota quarterback Stribbler. But I'm

520
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 4: assuming Mary's going to go, but Murray. So much of

521
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 4: what Mary does and for that offense is his with

522
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 4: his legs, and we saw a couple of games where

523
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 4: he wasn't fully healthy. He just didn't look great. You

524
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 4: take his running ability out. With that Rams pass rush

525
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 4: and that Rams defense, it's a totally different Arizona offense.

526
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 4: This is for all the Marbles. Cardinals win, they're in

527
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 4: Rams win, they're in Rams win. Also, the Bears are in.

528
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 4: Cardinals just need to win to get in. Rams can

529
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 4: get in if the Bears lose. But basically this is

530
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 4: both teams do or die. Everything that they have you're

531
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 4: going to see to get into the playoffs. Sean mcday

532
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 4: versus Cliff Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury end of the day. That's

533
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 4: just kind of pushed me over the edge here. So

534
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 4: I just don't think that it's like, oh my god,

535
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,680
Speaker 4: Jared Goff is out. It's like, all right, well, you

536
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 4: gotta roll him out and he throws his eight yard

537
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,479
Speaker 4: passes on play action. I mean, I think Wolford can

538
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 4: do some of the things that GoF does. This isn't

539
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 4: a seven to ten point drop. This isn't Aaron Rodgers

540
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 4: to Tim Boyle, this isn't Patrick Mahomes to Chad Henny.

541
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 4: Jared Goff is a system quarterback. So I think that

542
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 4: with a full week, the BRIT's not like he was

543
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 4: out in the first quarter and then Wolferd gets thrown in.

544
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 4: You have a game planform the whole week. I'm gonna

545
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 4: trust McVeigh here. Give me the three at home with

546
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 4: the There's also a chance Mry doesn't play. That's not

547
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 4: out of the question. But I think if he does

548
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 4: play and he's limited, it really restricts what Arizona does

549
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 4: very well on offense. So give me the rams.

550
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is like, this is a tough one to cap.

551
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 6: I have I show value on it too. I expected

552
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 6: the market to be closer to a pick or one.

553
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 6: I surprising one all the way to three. But I

554
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 6: guess it makes sense with the news of Murray that

555
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 6: kind of a little bit of an overreaction. But I

556
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 6: do worry about the Rams cluster injury luck. Like we

557
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,400
Speaker 6: talked about this a couple of weeks ago. It's really

558
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 6: tough to handicap. But you have you know, you have

559
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 6: goth Out, that's one thing, but you have Cam Akers

560
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 6: and Darryl Henderson in the run game, and then you

561
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 6: have Cooper cup Now it's like, and then Whitworth is

562
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 6: still out of make up back for the playoffs if

563
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 6: they make it. So does that impact Sean mcvaye's ability

564
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 6: Now it's kind of a bear cupboard in terms of

565
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 6: the guys he likes to use the most.

566
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 2: I don't know, it's tough.

567
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 6: It's tough to say, but I mean, yeah, I make

568
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 6: this line about one, so it's two points of value.

569
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 2: Can't argue with it. I like the under in this game.

570
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't if the Rams win this game,

571
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 6: They're not winning this game by scoring points. And you

572
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 6: know you mentioned Murray. So I'm gonna be hitting the

573
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 6: under in this game, probably before I got a side enough.

574
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 3: I hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I

575
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 3: want to make sure you know about the locked On

576
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: podcast network locked on as a daily podcast on your face.

577
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 4: Welcome to you Lockdown forty nine ers. You were locked

578
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 4: down of the Dallas marriage. Welcome everybody to the Locked

579
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 4: On Lakers podcast. Let's Go.

580
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 3: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

581
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 3: know your team better than anyone and give you the

582
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 3: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

583
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 3: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

584
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 6: For the last pick of the week, seventeen Sunday six pack,

585
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 6: my third pick, I'm going with your Baltimore Ravens stutt

586
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 6: minus twelve and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. And

587
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 6: this is the one spot I was talking about where

588
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 6: I really like the team with incentive against the team

589
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 6: with no incentive.

590
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: Why because the team with no incentive kind of.

591
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 6: Already had a couple of bit of highs, like kind

592
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 6: of had some Super Bowls here, Like, you know, they

593
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 6: knock off the Steelers on National TV. You know, they

594
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 6: get gifted a few turnovers in that one, and then

595
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 6: they get gifted the blessing that is playing the Texans

596
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 6: defense last week and they put up you know, get

597
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 6: everywhere everyone gets to have their stats last week. Now

598
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,239
Speaker 6: they're going against this Baltimore team that since they hit

599
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 6: that mid season COVID issue, those those COVID struggles and

600
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 6: everyone's getting hurt. And it was just like, you know,

601
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 6: they were missing like what forty percent of the roster

602
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 6: at one point, give her take. Now you know they're

603
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 6: relatively healthy. We're seeing you know, we might get another

604
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 6: one of the corners back this week. Looks like, you know,

605
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 6: the offense, the skill position should be good to go.

606
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 6: Maybe where we sneed is out, but you're pretty healthy.

607
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 6: You're pretty much healthy for Baltimore. Over the last five games,

608
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 6: they are five and zero against the spread. And you know,

609
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 6: usually you say, okay, teams covering a lot, you want

610
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 6: to fade them. But I just think the market hasn't

611
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 6: adjusted since that like mid season swoon.

612
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 2: To the to the Ravens. You know, they've beating the

613
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: spread every game.

614
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 6: They're playing like the team that we thought was, you know,

615
00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 6: the kind of second or third best team in the

616
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 6: again during the year, the team that was the best

617
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 6: or second best team for most of last year as well,

618
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 6: and I think the market is still underestimating them a

619
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,479
Speaker 6: little bit. I make this line fourteen. I think it's

620
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 6: a huge wet nown spot for the Bengals who like this.

621
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 6: Texas Ravens defense is nothing like that Texans defense. The

622
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 6: Ravens offense different from the Steelers offense is in terms

623
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 6: of the funk that the Steelers were going through. And

624
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 6: you know, I don't think there is likely to turn

625
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 6: the ball over as Pittsburgh and Big Ben was, so

626
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 6: I love the Ravens here. I think this is just

627
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 6: a spot where they keep continue to smash Lamar Jackson

628
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 6: on the road.

629
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: You know, there's never been a problem. Baltimore is twelve.

630
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 6: And five against the spread in his career in road

631
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 6: starts seventy one percent.

632
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 2: I just love Baltimore. I think it's a big spot form.

633
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree, I played. I make this and this

634
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 4: is why you have to It ultimately comes down of

635
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 4: the number. This is the Ravens need to win and

636
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 4: the Bengals are playing the spoiler season. By the way,

637
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 4: this happened three years Ravens said saw a nightmares in Baltimore.

638
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 4: When Baltimore need to wait in Cincinnati on like the

639
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 4: final play of the game scored a touchdown.

640
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: Oh I remember Tyler Board yep.

641
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, devastating. I was so devastated I was on the floor,

642
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 4: like collapsed.

643
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 7: Hey, sorry to interrupt again. Yes, this was the play

644
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 7: that sent Buffalo into the playoffs and ended their seventeen

645
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 7: year drought and was one of the happiest moments of

646
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 7: my entire life. So my apologies for saying fuck you earlier.

647
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 2: Keep up the good work and good luck.

648
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 4: And then the Browns almost did it to the Ravens

649
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 4: the next year, Like this stuff happens in week seventeen.

650
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 4: But this is where number I make this fourteen. I

651
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 4: played the minus to It's just a terrible matchup for

652
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 4: the Bengals. People forget just because the Bengals beat had

653
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 4: an offensive explosion against the Technans. How bad this Bengals

654
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 4: offense has been historically bad since Joe Burrow went down.

655
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 4: I mean, averaging like under four yards per play, no

656
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 4: explosiveness even against the Pittsburgh I mean the well I

657
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 4: said it for they had one hundred and fifty yards

658
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 4: through three quarters. They were just benefiting from turnovers. Bad

659
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 4: matchup for the see linebackers with Lamar Jackson and them

660
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 4: throwing to their tight ends and the running game of

661
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 4: the Ravens. The Ravens do have some injuries worth watching

662
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 4: on the defensive side of the ball and their secondary

663
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 4: Kalays Campbell, but I don't think they'll have any problems

664
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 4: shutting down Saints a year. And by the way, people

665
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 4: want to know about like it's there's a lot of

666
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 4: randomness in a sixteen game season. If you flipped every

667
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 4: one score game around, the Ravens would be twelve and three,

668
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 4: uh and the one seed in the AFC. The Chiefs

669
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 4: would be seven and eight. Here's the rest of the

670
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 4: AFC North. The Steelers would be six and nine and

671
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 4: the Browns would be six and nine. The Browns have

672
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 4: I think that the brown still negative point negative point differential,

673
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 4: and I think the the Ravens are like one hundred

674
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 4: and something and it's crazy they have the same record.

675
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 4: But the Ravens, yeah, they've been and the Ravens have

676
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 4: had to deal with a lot of COVID issues the

677
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 4: Browns have lately as well. But yeah, I think the

678
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 4: Ravens are really hitting their stride now, seeing no one

679
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 4: wants to face in the playoffs. It's one of the

680
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 4: reasons why I'm investing in their futures. And here's something

681
00:33:55,880 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 4: to keep in mind. Ravens Bengals and the Jackson just

682
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 4: destroyed the Bengals in his career. They're slow line back.

683
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 4: I mean, it's just a bad matchup. But Ravens Bengals.

684
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: I had this.

685
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 4: I had circled this after this happened earlier this year,

686
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 4: and I thought the Ravens would have shit clinched in

687
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 4: Week seventeen, so I didn't think it would matter, but

688
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 4: I still had it in my notes. The Ravens beat

689
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 4: the Bengals October eleventh, twenty seven to three, and Joe

690
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 4: Barre played by the way it since he had like

691
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 4: two hundred total yards, that's it they got. They were

692
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 4: getting crushed. Baltimore was up twenty seven to nothing late

693
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 4: and since it kicked a field goal and the Ravens

694
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 4: were pissed, were pissed. Martinelle was like, where we're going

695
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,239
Speaker 4: to remember this? They pissed that they ruined the shut

696
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 4: up by kicking a field goal, So don't be surprised

697
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 4: that Balimer wants to run it up a little at

698
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 4: the end. And obviously they're playing for the playoff life,

699
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 4: so they can't really take the foot off the pedal.

700
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 4: They can't. They have to be up by two scores

701
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 4: and maintain that lead late. But don't be surprised if

702
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 4: instead of they're up ten or thirteen and they want

703
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 4: to punch in at an extra score and that gets

704
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 4: you cover. Don't be surprised because the Ravens were really

705
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 4: pissed about that field goal.

706
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, and don't be surprised if they don't punt, because

707
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 6: I think they just put their punter on the on

708
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 6: the COVID list, So.

709
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I they always go just a Tucker might punty

710
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 4: punted in college. So at the half the punt the

711
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 4: average like over forty yards per punt, so I'm sure

712
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 4: if anyone could do, it's Tucker. But yeah, just just

713
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 4: make the Ravens if you want to go for it more.

714
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 4: And that's probably bad news for.

715
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 6: Since Yeah, it's a mismatch. The numbers off, you know,

716
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 6: I think you know this is it's kind of a

717
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 6: trendy pick. You know, Bengals at home coming off a

718
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 6: couple of upsets, but yeah, major at down, Sprout and

719
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 6: Baltimore have been covering by an average of six point

720
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 6: six points per game over the last five games since

721
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 6: that mid season swoon. So like the market just hasn't adjusted,

722
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 6: and it's like just by you can look at kind

723
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 6: of all of our projections and our Action Network pro models.

724
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 6: You know, it's it's fourteen fourteen fourteen. You know, everyone

725
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 6: has it fourteen fourteen and a half. It's it's tough

726
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 6: to kind of reconcile that with the market. So yeah,

727
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 6: I love Baltimore here betting they get they get it done.

728
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 6: That wraps it up for the Week seventeen Sunday six

729
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 6: pack to recap, stuck going with the Houston Texans plus

730
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 6: seven and a half, the Giants plus two, in the

731
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 6: Rams plus three. I'm going with Buffalo minus one and

732
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 6: a half, the Steelers plus ten, and the Ravens minus

733
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 6: twelve and a half. And speaking of Week seventeen, BETMGM

734
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,760
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742
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,800
Speaker 6: a touchdown on Sunday. As a reminder, you must be

743
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 6: twenty one or older and physically located in Colorado, Indiana,

744
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 6: New Jersey, Nevada, or West Virginia.

745
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:02,360
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746
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,640
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747
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,040
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748
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,839
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749
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:12,120
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750
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Speaker 6: not available in Nevada or Pennsylvania. All right, that does

751
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,320
Speaker 6: it for the Sunday six pack reminder. You can follow

752
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 6: all the picks in the app. Just down with the

753
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 6: Action Network app. Search for Sunday six Pack in the

754
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 6: follow feature and you can check out all of the picks.

755
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 6: Let's get into our favorites over under of the week.

756
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 6: You went first for the six pack step, so I'll

757
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 6: go first for the total. Going with the and I

758
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 6: love this under so like more than I have liked

759
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 6: most unders all season, which means probably not going to hit.

760
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 6: But going with San Francisco Seattle under forty six and

761
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 6: a half. Seattle just been a totally different team since

762
00:37:54,200 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 6: that hot start to the season. You look at them

763
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 6: in terms of the Letres Cook phenomenon. On weeks one

764
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 6: to nine, they were passing on fifty nine point one

765
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 6: percent of their first and second downs. Since Week ten

766
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 6: down to fifty two point five percent, more than a

767
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 6: six percent decline. You look at Seattle in terms of

768
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 6: their straight up scores. Twenty two point seven to fifteen

769
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 6: is Seattle's average score since Week ten, a total of

770
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 6: thirty seven point seven on average. And you look at

771
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 6: Seattle even since Week four, since October, since those big

772
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 6: games against Atlanta to start the year, the three straight

773
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:40,399
Speaker 6: high scoring games since October, Seattle is nine to three

774
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 6: towards the under. Then you look at San Francisco. You

775
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 6: know they're gonna play tough, you know they're gonna hang around.

776
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 6: But their offense, it's been decimated all year. But now

777
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 6: you have Brandon Ayuk Deebo Samuel both starting wide receivers out.

778
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 2: Yes, you have George kittleback, but.

779
00:38:58,239 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 6: It's done a little bit of a pitch count, playing

780
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 6: about sixty percent of the snaps. But more importantly, not

781
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 6: only do you have you can Samuel Out and Rahem

782
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 6: Moster and your top two quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppo and Nick Moowens,

783
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 6: but you'll have to have left tackle Trent Williams out.

784
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 6: On top of all of that, I mean every spot,

785
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 6: every key spot on offense. You're down your second or

786
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 6: your third or your four stringer. I don't expect San

787
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 6: Francisco to score a ton of points Seattle. The average

788
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:27,760
Speaker 6: Seattle game has averaged thirty seven points. Under thirty eight points.

789
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 6: They've been holding opponents to fifteen over the last five games.

790
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 6: Like to me, this just screams under divisional game, second

791
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:35,760
Speaker 6: divisional matchup.

792
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 2: Give me the under forty six and a half here.

793
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 4: I don't hate it. I show some small value there

794
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 4: as well, So no arguments from me Seattle. Also, Seattle

795
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 4: can clinch the one seed with a win versus forty

796
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 4: nine Ers and Packers and Saints' losses. Right, and the

797
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 4: way that the NFL operates this week smartly they put

798
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: all the games with similar meeting at the same time,

799
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,479
Speaker 4: and like they sometimes they won't even have a Sunday

800
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 4: night game if they would get someone a competitive advantage

801
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 4: in this case, it wouldn't with Washington they win and

802
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 4: get in or lose and they're out. But you know,

803
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 4: with Seattle is playing at four to twenty five, Green

804
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 4: Bay is playing a four to twenty five, and New

805
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 4: Orleans a four twenty five, so all those games are

806
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 4: four to twenty five. Seattle's only insteadive is to win

807
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 4: to get the one seed if those other two teams lose.

808
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 4: So if the Packers are Saints who are blowing out

809
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 4: their opponent, why not pull Russ at the You know,

810
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 4: it's possible that I'll help you're under too. I don't

811
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 4: know if it'll happen, if they will, but it's it's

812
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 4: something that could only help you if that's the case.

813
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 4: All Right, for my total, I'm going kind of I

814
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 4: don't really love many totals this week. I'm going out

815
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 4: on the limb here. Try to get forty three what

816
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 4: Washington football team Philadelphia Eagles over forty three and a

817
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:51,879
Speaker 4: half at bet MGM. We still don't know if Alex

818
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 4: smithill play. I think he is basically Rodervera said, even

819
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 4: if he doesn't practice all week, he's gonna play. Terry

820
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 4: McLaurin didn't practice, s ay're gonna keep around him. Antonio

821
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 4: Gibson still dealing with an injury, but he played last week.

822
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 4: Just this Philly defense is the secondary that's the worst

823
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 4: I've ever seen. They just have guys off the street

824
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:10,399
Speaker 4: trying to play cornerback. I don't think they could stop

825
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,399
Speaker 4: any NFL offense that's not run by Dwayne Haskins who's

826
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 4: now gone. Even Heidike coming in, I think can do

827
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:21,359
Speaker 4: some things against this Philly secondary. Washington, their defensive line

828
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 4: is obviously dominant, their defense is playing really well. Jalen

829
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 4: Hurts his mobility I think will allow Philly to do

830
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 4: some things here and then he's gonna make potentially some

831
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 4: erratic throws, but he's gonna use his legs and Philly

832
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,479
Speaker 4: offense is a lot more explosive, and I think also

833
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 4: something that can help here. Philly is just gonna play

834
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 4: balls to the wall. Why not. They're eliminated right. This

835
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 4: is a spot, so you're gonna have Doug Peterson trick

836
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:50,960
Speaker 4: plays aggressive. He's always aggressive on fourth down, way aggressive

837
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 4: on fourth down. So you could see short fields, fewer punts.

838
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 4: So I know it's scary to go with a Washington over,

839
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 4: but I think there's a lot of angles here play

840
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 4: and that Washington offense, I mean, I don't eddy offense.

841
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 4: I think they made Andy Dalton look like Patrick Mahomes

842
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 4: last week. I don't know if they're gonna throw Jaquette

843
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,800
Speaker 4: out there again. I feel bad for the guy. Michael

844
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 4: Gallup is gonna be living in his nightmares for weeks.

845
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 4: But yeah, just a decimated I didn't love the Philly

846
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 4: defensive begin with. Now they just have Darius Ladeon secondary

847
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 4: and that's it. It's a decimated defensive unit. So I

848
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,239
Speaker 4: think Washington can do some things to move the ball.

849
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 4: Philly's with Hurts' mobility, they're a little more explosive now

850
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 4: they have some of their weapons. Back to Sean Jackson

851
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 4: revenge game. To keep Washington out of the playoffs, I

852
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 4: think the Eagles will just play really loose and wild

853
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 4: trick plays Philly specials. So I like the over. Try

854
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 4: to get forty three obviously a key number for twenty

855
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 4: three to twenty finals, but I'll go over forty three

856
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:52,280
Speaker 4: and a half here in Philly. Washington.

857
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean he has been gaining, you know, putting

858
00:42:55,480 --> 00:43:00,760
Speaker 6: up essentially top two yardage numbers since Jalen Hurts the quarterback,

859
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 6: and we know Washington always finds a way to be

860
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 6: within one score at.

861
00:43:04,400 --> 00:43:06,920
Speaker 2: The end of the game, So yeah, I don't hate it.

862
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 6: I mean I'll be betting against Washington in the first

863
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 6: half and I don't probably come back in the second half,

864
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 6: So yeah, I could see a game script where that

865
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 6: over plays out too perfecttion, what is your.

866
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 4: Uh, what is your feel on the injury situation for

867
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 4: Washington from I know that you followed closely for track.

868
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 4: So do you think McLaren is going to play? And

869
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 4: I think Alex Smith is.

870
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 6: Going to play, But I think Alex Smith is truly questionable,

871
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 6: like seventy five percent. But NFL's definition, I mean, like

872
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 6: seventy five percent chance to play. McLaren I consider on

873
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 6: the wrong side of questionable, So I have him closer

874
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 6: to doubtful just because you know, you're talking about an

875
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 6: ankle here and he still hasn't practiced. It's kind of

876
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 6: like one of those things where they're holding out optimism.

877
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 6: But usually the reason you say that with a guy

878
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 6: like mclauren is because he's their top receiver, So it's

879
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 6: kind of a competitive advantage situation like game but game

880
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:05,360
Speaker 6: planning purposes. You want the other team to have the

881
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 6: game plan for McLaren So I my kind of from

882
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 6: everything I've seen as we record is Wednesday night, I'm

883
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 6: leaning towards him being out, but camp Sims pretty good. Honestly,

884
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 6: I will break out here for camp Sims.

885
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 2: So he's no mclauren. But you do have Antonio Gibson

886
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 2: back Jadie mckissic.

887
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 6: Can you know you can put those two guys on

888
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 6: the field together and kind of mitigate the loss. And

889
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 6: Logan Thomas also been playing well, so there's definitely avenues

890
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 6: for Washington to generate offense in this game.

891
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 4: All right.

892
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 2: So that wraps it up.

893
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 6: For our favorite totals of the week, I'm going nine

894
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 6: or Seahawks under forty six and a half. I like that.

895
00:44:48,840 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 6: I have a projected at forty three, so I like

896
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 6: that down to even forty three and a half because

897
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 6: forty three is a key number.

898
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 2: But I'm just all over the under for.

899
00:44:56,719 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 6: That one and stuck going Washington Philly over forty three

900
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:02,359
Speaker 6: and a half. Try to get the forty three if

901
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 6: you can again key number there, you know, may get

902
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 6: a push in a small percentage of chances that you

903
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 6: would otherwise welst at forty.

904
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 2: Three and a half. So let's get in too, our

905
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 2: favorite teaser of the week.

906
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers all right.

907
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 6: For those not familiar, a teaser is when you combine

908
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 6: two or more bets and for each bet you get

909
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 6: a certain number of extra points toward the spread. A

910
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,399
Speaker 6: standard teaser is six points, so you get six extra

911
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 6: points for each bet that you make. So, for example,

912
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 6: if you're teasing an eight point favorite, they become a

913
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 6: two point favorite and eight point underdog becomes a fourteen point.

914
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 2: Underdog easier to cover.

915
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 6: You're usually getting a minus one twenty juice for it,

916
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:47,960
Speaker 6: but there is an edge just stuck.

917
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 2: You like to talk about.

918
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 6: You have a lot of great content out about it,

919
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 6: and you're essentially trying to tease through as many key

920
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:58,280
Speaker 6: numbers as possible. You know, the three, the six to seven,

921
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 6: and then if the and then the ten would be

922
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 6: the next one.

923
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Ideally if you can go through three and seven,

924
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 4: you're doing it right. And you want to pay minus

925
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 4: one twenty or last minus one thirty at the highest.

926
00:46:12,040 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 4: Some books out there are starting to actually charge you

927
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 4: for what they're worth, and you might have to pay

928
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 4: minus one forty five for don't do that. Yede then

929
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 4: goes back to the book. By the way, when I

930
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 4: was I was talking about these records. If you flipped

931
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 4: all the records of one score games, do you know

932
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,479
Speaker 4: the one seed in the NFC would be still Cream

933
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:29,920
Speaker 4: Bay tied with Atlanta.

934
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 2: Dan Quinn oh Man.

935
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 4: All right, So for my teaser this week, I'm gonna

936
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 4: tease the Giants up there plus two plus two and

937
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:43,360
Speaker 4: a half now up to eight eight and a half

938
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 4: with the Denver Broncos up to eight eight and a half.

939
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:51,479
Speaker 4: There's not much. I mean, I already went over the Giants,

940
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:52,879
Speaker 4: but I liked them so obviously I liked them catching

941
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 4: eight in the game. I made a pick. Broncos is

942
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 4: just simple math. Drew Locke. He won't do anything all game,

943
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:00,160
Speaker 4: but he I mean, he could do stuff again the

944
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:01,879
Speaker 4: Raider Sea Junks, But if you need them to get

945
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 4: in the back door against the prevent defense for your teasers,

946
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 4: he'll do that. For you do that last week, you

947
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 4: can always come in my back door. So yeah, I

948
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 4: think both games should stay within a possession.

949
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:18,359
Speaker 2: Yeah. I like the Broncos as well.

950
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 4: Vegas.

951
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 6: I mean they find ways to just just completely underperform,

952
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 6: you know, and it's weird because you have John Gruden

953
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 6: who just shouldn't be doing that. But you also have

954
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 6: a lot of injury situation for the Raiders and guys

955
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:36,760
Speaker 6: I think they may hold out. You're looking at Cleveland,

956
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 6: Ferrell already got placed on injured reserve, Trent Brown not practicing,

957
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:45,719
Speaker 6: Denzel Good not practicing, Maurice Hearst from Marcus Joyner. So

958
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:48,759
Speaker 6: you have some guys, some key guys that could be

959
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 6: ruled out for them. The Broncos. First of all, they're

960
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 6: at home here. They are in Mile High, which I

961
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:57,880
Speaker 6: think still does carry a bit of home field advantage

962
00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:01,359
Speaker 6: most most home field advantage pretty much know at this point.

963
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 6: But yeah, just a division matchup closer to a pick them,

964
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 6: I think. So I like the teas with Denver up

965
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 6: to eight and a half and then going with New

966
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 6: Orleans minus one or my other leg.

967
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 2: I think New Orleans wins this game. New Orleans is

968
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 2: a deep.

969
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 6: Team, you know, they can you know, no matter who

970
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 6: they're really playing, They're in every game. Very well coached,

971
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 6: and Carolina is well coached too, but you've kind of

972
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 6: seen it catch up to them. Just their overall talent

973
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 6: level over these last what was it, five to six games,

974
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:35,080
Speaker 6: and you look at Carolina here, yes, there's it's kind

975
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 6: of a zero incentive team, which is why I like

976
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 6: Teas and New Orleans better because I think this game

977
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 6: could very well be close. You saw Carolina come within

978
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 6: three points against New Orleans in the first matchup, so

979
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 6: definitely can be a competitive game here, but I think

980
00:48:49,080 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 6: New Orleans holds on to win it. Carolina know Russell o'coon,

981
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,439
Speaker 6: Carolina still know Christian McCaffrey. Now they rule out Mike

982
00:48:56,560 --> 00:49:00,400
Speaker 6: Davis as well, so you just have a bunch of

983
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 6: key injuries at key spots for it is Carolina offense,

984
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:05,799
Speaker 6: I don't think they'll be able to get it done

985
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 6: here against a well coached, well rounded Saints team. Carolinason

986
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 6: starting three and two. They beat Washington last week, but

987
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:19,279
Speaker 6: still they are two and eight over the last ten.

988
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 6: So getting teasing New Orleans down to minus one, I

989
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 6: like it there and that yeah, I like.

990
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:26,800
Speaker 4: That too, And I'll be rooting for the Saints for

991
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 4: my Panthers season win total under six, so goes.

992
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, there you go, all right, So that wraps it

993
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 6: up for our Teasers again, stuck going Denver up to

994
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 6: plus eight and a half, the Giants up to plus eight.

995
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 6: I'm going with Denver as well, up to eight and

996
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 6: a half, and the Saints down to one.

997
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:48,000
Speaker 2: Now it's time for our money line underdog parlay.

998
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

999
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1000
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 2: All right, stuck, go with this week.

1001
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:05,719
Speaker 4: Let's get crazy. It's Week seventeen. Let's go with the

1002
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:09,520
Speaker 4: Jacksonville Jaguars. If you want to get a little crazy.

1003
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:12,800
Speaker 4: We see a big upset every year Week seventeen against

1004
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 4: a team that needs to win. The Colts need to win,

1005
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 4: they lose their out. Maybe it's the Titans that get upset,

1006
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,320
Speaker 4: but maybe it's the Jags. Even if they start glade

1007
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,760
Speaker 4: and you could see Minschew come in, which has happened

1008
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 4: a couple of games. Minshew for whatever reason, this Jags

1009
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 4: offense loves and Minshew loves just rips apart the Colts defense.

1010
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 4: The Jags win one game this year, and it came

1011
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 4: against the Colts back in Week one, So why not

1012
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 4: book end the season with two wins? They already have

1013
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 4: the number one overall draft pick locked up. They I

1014
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,479
Speaker 4: think they've won like three or four, six of seven

1015
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 4: against the Colts. They've just owned the Colts, all the

1016
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 4: pressures on the Colts here, why not I make this

1017
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 4: line lower than fourteen in order to bet it. I

1018
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:58,120
Speaker 4: won over fourteen, which I said in my article. But Jacksonville,

1019
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:01,640
Speaker 4: they have not been competitive the past few weeks. But

1020
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 4: for a team with one win, they have I think

1021
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:07,120
Speaker 4: five or six losses by one possession. You know, they

1022
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 4: lost a couple of heartbreaking games at the very end

1023
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 4: that they were in a division game trying to end

1024
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 4: the cold season. Let's throw a dart here, Jags, I get.

1025
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 2: I mean I could totally see that.

1026
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 6: You know, it's it would be very Colts and very

1027
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 6: filt Rivers to just somehow we let the Jags stay

1028
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 6: close and then throw some exasperating interception on the last

1029
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 6: play of the game.

1030
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,879
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like this one. I also, I'm going

1031
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 2: with Steelers here.

1032
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 6: I was initially gonna go with THEE with the with

1033
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 6: the Rams because they're catching three at home, nobody believes

1034
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,920
Speaker 6: in them. But I really love the Steelers here plus

1035
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:47,920
Speaker 6: three seventy five to win this game against Cleveland, it.

1036
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:49,800
Speaker 2: Would be number one. It would just be so Cleveland.

1037
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,280
Speaker 6: But you know, again, for all the reasons I pointed

1038
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:55,360
Speaker 6: out you know earlier in picking him against the spread,

1039
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 6: what could Mike tom win in his career as an underdog?

1040
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 6: First of all, he's uh thirty one and twenty seven

1041
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:04,239
Speaker 6: straight up as an underdog, so he has a winning

1042
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 6: record as an underdog, and that hose even if you

1043
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 6: remove the games with Ben Roethlisberger. So with Duck Hodge's

1044
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 6: Michael Vick, Charlie Batch, Dennis Nixon, Byron Leftwich, Mason Rudolph,

1045
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:21,320
Speaker 6: Landry Jones, Mike tom Win is a combined nine to

1046
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:25,640
Speaker 6: eight straight up as a money line underdog, all with

1047
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 6: non big ben quarterbacks. I love Pittsburgh here to come

1048
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 6: out and steal one.

1049
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 4: By the way, if this happens, if the Steelers win

1050
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:40,880
Speaker 4: and the Jaguars win, and then let's say the Bills

1051
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 4: beat the Dolphins and the Ravens beat the Bengals and

1052
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:50,760
Speaker 4: the Titans beat the Texans. If that happens, the Colts

1053
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 4: are left out, even though the Browns lost to the Steelers.

1054
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 4: So this partla happens, Browns fans, even though you lost

1055
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 4: to the Steelers, you would still get in the seventh seed.

1056
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:02,239
Speaker 4: You'd go to Buffalo, the Dolphins would be the sixth seed,

1057
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 4: they would go to Pittsburgh, and the Ravens would go

1058
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 4: to the Titans. Now, Colts fans, even if the Titans lost,

1059
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 4: you still would be out. So give me all the

1060
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:14,840
Speaker 4: chaos on Week seventeen on Sunday.

1061
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 2: Well, the best part about this, I should not wish

1062
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 2: the best part about this, regardless who you were a

1063
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 2: fan of.

1064
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 6: If just these two scenarios, just the Jaguars winning and

1065
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,360
Speaker 6: the Steelers winning, the Jags are plus seven fifty, I

1066
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 6: bet MGM, the official odds provider of the podcast, the

1067
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 6: Steelers are plus three seventy five.

1068
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 2: If just those two teams pull off the upset and.

1069
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:42,839
Speaker 6: You bet a one hundred dollar parlay on Jags seven

1070
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 6: fifty Steelers three seventy five, you're winning four K.

1071
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 2: So what's rue for that?

1072
00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:50,279
Speaker 4: You know?

1073
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,359
Speaker 6: And that you know again stuck, you've pointed it out.

1074
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 6: I've given you these numbers of a Steelers like, these

1075
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 6: things can happen. So whether it's these two or if

1076
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 6: he likes any of these other teams that you know,

1077
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,320
Speaker 6: people were essentially writing completely off, you know, don't hesitate

1078
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 6: because these things definitely do happen in Week seventeen.

1079
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, Steelers Jags money moneyline partway. I love this.

1080
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 2: I just gotta be my favorite money line para way

1081
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:14,439
Speaker 2: I think we've ever done.

1082
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 4: I'm something in.

1083
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, I gotta go at this.

1084
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:19,800
Speaker 6: So we're gonna end this podcast in just a second

1085
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:23,879
Speaker 6: so we can actually get that bet in. But first

1086
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 6: we got to quickly get to the best of the rest,

1087
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:29,200
Speaker 6: which are the games we did not analyze in any

1088
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:30,840
Speaker 6: other segments.

1089
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:35,920
Speaker 2: And all right, let's go rapid fire here Jets at

1090
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 2: the Patriots. Pat's three point favorites total thirty nine and

1091
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 2: a half gross.

1092
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 4: It is Cam Newton gonna play? I don't know, is

1093
00:54:44,200 --> 00:54:47,320
Speaker 4: Stidham Jets have won two straight. I don't know. It

1094
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 4: seems like they care. Seems like the Patriots have checked

1095
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 4: out still Bell check us checked out or even have

1096
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:54,319
Speaker 4: they're even trying to win? I show value the number

1097
00:54:54,400 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 4: on the Patriots. No interest in this game. Fuck this game.

1098
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:00,800
Speaker 4: This is the worst side of Week seven team. You

1099
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 4: have two teams that are out of it play. We

1100
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:05,600
Speaker 4: have a couple of those. I have no interest in

1101
00:55:05,680 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 4: this game. Who cares?

1102
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:09,880
Speaker 2: Oh my god? Who cash?

1103
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:13,239
Speaker 6: I feel like I feel like Bochik will start Cam

1104
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 6: as kind of like a just to throwing him a bone,

1105
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 6: wedding them pad those horrible stats, you know, maybe go

1106
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 6: out on a high note against the bad defense. So

1107
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:24,879
Speaker 6: I'm thinking we'll see mostly Cam, but who knows? Next

1108
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:31,360
Speaker 6: one up in Minnesota at Detroit try I mean, you

1109
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:33,320
Speaker 6: talk about checked out and maybe it was because of

1110
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 6: the having no coaches, But Detroit last week, I mean,

1111
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:40,799
Speaker 6: my goodness, they were just Mike Evans' playtoy for him

1112
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 6: to try to get to his seventh straight one thousand yards.

1113
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 6: He's like, all they did for the last you know,

1114
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 6: three quarters was give Mike Evan yards. So Detroit six

1115
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 6: and a half point underdogs hosting Minnesota, the total fifty

1116
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:56,120
Speaker 6: four and a half. Justin Jefferson needs one hundred and

1117
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:59,600
Speaker 6: ten yards to set the rookie receiving records, so I

1118
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 6: guess he'll get.

1119
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 2: That by halftime. But what are your thoughts on the

1120
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:05,640
Speaker 2: Vikes Lions again the.

1121
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 4: Ugly side of Week seventeen? Uh, maybe the under if

1122
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 4: Stafford doesn't go. I'd assume Stafford's out and Cook's not going.

1123
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:16,239
Speaker 4: But can you really play the under with these two defenses?

1124
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:21,240
Speaker 4: This game is disgusting pass, hard pass.

1125
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't show crazy value on the number,

1126
00:56:26,200 --> 00:56:28,839
Speaker 6: but I mean just gut peeling. If you're betting a side,

1127
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 6: I think it has to be Vikings. Yeah, I just

1128
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:33,280
Speaker 6: the Lions have just they just haven't been there.

1129
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 4: On The Vikings are also on a slide though.

1130
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, they've been bad.

1131
00:56:37,040 --> 00:56:40,480
Speaker 6: But like just like, for example, the Vikings loss, the

1132
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 6: Vikings terrible blowout loss, they still score thirty three against

1133
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 6: the Saints. You know, they give up fifty two, but

1134
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 6: they score thirty three. Like the Lions they score seven points.

1135
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 6: You know, they played three quarterbacks in so doing it.

1136
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 6: This team, maybe they rebound, you know, close the season strong.

1137
00:56:55,760 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 6: But I'm not buying the Lions right now. So for me,

1138
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 6: it would be Vikes or nothing. One up in Atlanta

1139
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 6: Tampa Bay. We had this a couple of weeks ago.

1140
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 6: Atlanta goes up really playing good defense, but Tampa Bay

1141
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:08,319
Speaker 6: Tom Brady was able to come back get the thirty

1142
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 6: one to twenty seven win. Tampa Bay favored six and

1143
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 6: a half here total fifteen and a half.

1144
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 4: I think I make this around seven. I'm just verifying

1145
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 4: some things. It looks like Julio Jones is out and Tampa,

1146
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 4: who I assume, and I have to adjustice up. So

1147
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:26,439
Speaker 4: I did make it seven because I was thinking maybe

1148
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:30,360
Speaker 4: Tampa doesn't play all at starters, but after looking into it,

1149
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 4: I tweeted this yesterday. Tampa is no doubt playing all

1150
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:35,760
Speaker 4: their starters. And the reason is not only do Brazilians

1151
00:57:35,800 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 4: come out and say that that they're playing to win,

1152
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:39,480
Speaker 4: to play all the starters. They win, they lock in

1153
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 4: the five seed. What does that mean you play the

1154
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 4: NFC East winner instead of either Green Bay, Seattle or

1155
00:57:46,280 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 4: New Orleans. That's enormous, enormous difference. So I have no

1156
00:57:50,240 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 4: doubt in my mind that Tampa will try. I make

1157
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:58,920
Speaker 4: it seven. So maybe I could see using Tampa as

1158
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 4: a tease piece. But it's it's you know, it's not

1159
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,200
Speaker 4: over seven. It's not the best one. This is a

1160
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:03,760
Speaker 4: pass to me.

1161
00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:05,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree.

1162
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:11,520
Speaker 6: Next up, Chargers at Kansas City. Kansas City three and

1163
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 6: a half point underdogs, they are resting starters, they are

1164
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 6: locked into the number one seed. Totals forty three and

1165
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:21,439
Speaker 6: a half. Keenan Allen is out for the Chargers. Hunter

1166
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 6: Henry the tight End also still on the COVID nineteen

1167
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 6: reserve so looks like he'll miss as well.

1168
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 2: Could be an undergame. But what are your thoughts?

1169
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:37,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm mad because I usually I love fading the

1170
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 4: Chiefs against the Chargers. Their lines are always inflating. The

1171
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 4: Chargers are the one defense that gives Mahomes a little

1172
00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:45,800
Speaker 4: bit of issues because you know, they don't they don't blitch,

1173
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 4: and they can get pressure naturally, and they sit back

1174
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 4: in their cover three and they always buy the Chiefs competitively. Well,

1175
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 4: now it's not Mahomes, it's heady and this is a

1176
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:57,760
Speaker 4: tough game to handicap. How much are the Chiefs going

1177
00:58:57,840 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 4: to try? Who's going to play on the defenses out

1178
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:01,480
Speaker 4: of the ball? I mean, I feel like they're just

1179
00:59:01,520 --> 00:59:04,040
Speaker 4: going to go through the motions here the Chargers if

1180
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 4: you tease, and if you tease both sides of their

1181
00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 4: games depending on the numbers that you got so far

1182
00:59:09,280 --> 00:59:11,960
Speaker 4: this year twenty eight and two. So I'm sure the

1183
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 4: Charters will find out find a way for this game

1184
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,800
Speaker 4: to be close. Can I lay three and a half here?

1185
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 4: Now I have to. I still have to go through

1186
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 4: adjustments and see who who is out like Mahomes. De

1187
00:59:22,760 --> 00:59:25,560
Speaker 4: Henny to me is like a ten point drop off.

1188
00:59:26,160 --> 00:59:27,400
Speaker 4: Then I have to go through the rest of that.

1189
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 4: I mean, as of right now, I think I have to.

1190
00:59:29,080 --> 00:59:30,880
Speaker 4: The Chiefs are one one and a half point dogs

1191
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:32,720
Speaker 4: at home, but not three and a half. Maybe I

1192
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 4: get there, but I can't see myself really betting this game.

1193
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 6: Yeah, I have a Chiefs one and a half point

1194
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:41,280
Speaker 6: dogs with the total of forty three total.

1195
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 2: I think I feel a little better about still, just

1196
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 2: because you're right. It's hard.

1197
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 6: It's a little harder to feel confident in the side.

1198
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 6: But there's a lot of offensive firepower not.

1199
00:59:51,520 --> 00:59:53,920
Speaker 2: You know, in this game. Now the question is on

1200
00:59:54,040 --> 00:59:56,400
Speaker 2: defense for the Chiefs. How big is the drop off?

1201
00:59:56,520 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 2: But remember when everyone was healthy on offense.

1202
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:03,720
Speaker 6: That least for these two teams twenty three to twenty

1203
01:00:03,840 --> 01:00:07,520
Speaker 6: game in week number two. So this definitely has the

1204
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:10,640
Speaker 6: potential to be to be a lower scoring game if

1205
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:14,000
Speaker 6: the Chiefs defense doesn't completely muck it up, you know,

1206
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:15,640
Speaker 6: with their second stringers.

1207
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:17,160
Speaker 2: The final game.

1208
01:00:17,600 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 6: Bears Packers Bears hosting five and a half point underdogs.

1209
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:26,360
Speaker 6: The total has risen a bit since open It is

1210
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:30,760
Speaker 6: up to fifty one and a half thoughts on this one.

1211
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 4: I make it five and a half, so well, not

1212
01:00:34,160 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 4: much here to say. Packers win, they lock up the

1213
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:39,920
Speaker 4: one seed. They will try. Bears need to win to

1214
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 4: get in, or have John Wolford and the Rams beat

1215
01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:48,120
Speaker 4: the Cardinals and then you're sliding anyway and the Cardinals

1216
01:00:48,160 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 4: are out. I make it five and a half. Bears

1217
01:00:50,600 --> 01:00:53,200
Speaker 4: offense is playing better. I have to give them credit there.

1218
01:00:53,760 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 4: The Packers. I've been upgrading them a lot. I mean, look,

1219
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 4: if you look at them last year to this year,

1220
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:03,600
Speaker 4: especially teams, same defense, middle of the pack, you can

1221
01:01:03,720 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 4: run on them. Past defense is good. Offense still DeVonta

1222
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 4: Adams and then some other receivers, the same guys that

1223
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:15,160
Speaker 4: had last year. Running backs still kind of the same

1224
01:01:16,000 --> 01:01:19,880
Speaker 4: offensive line very good again like last year. Why the

1225
01:01:19,960 --> 01:01:21,959
Speaker 4: Packer's so much better, like everyone was, like they were lucky.

1226
01:01:22,680 --> 01:01:25,440
Speaker 4: It's just the evolution of this offense. Aaron Rodgers is

1227
01:01:25,520 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 4: playing out of his mind. It's just last year it

1228
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:32,960
Speaker 4: looked like he was headed on a downward trajectory at

1229
01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:35,360
Speaker 4: the end of his career, and this year he's been unbelievable.

1230
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 4: And that's why the Packers, even though they were a

1231
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 4: contender last year and I had a future on them,

1232
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:43,520
Speaker 4: they were just very lucky and fortunate and but now

1233
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:46,600
Speaker 4: Rotters is making up for all of that. I wouldn't

1234
01:01:46,600 --> 01:01:48,040
Speaker 4: want to get get in the way at this Green

1235
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:50,360
Speaker 4: Day offense right now. But I make the line right

1236
01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 4: around five and a half six, So.

1237
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:56,160
Speaker 2: Hass yeah, it's kind of in a dead zone. We'll

1238
01:01:56,160 --> 01:01:59,000
Speaker 2: see about that total. The Bears. You know, they're still missing.

1239
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 6: The guys are still not practicing on defense, Dion Bush,

1240
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 6: Busterer screen and Jalen Johnson. So this could be an

1241
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:10,600
Speaker 6: overgame if those three guys are going to miss again.

1242
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:14,720
Speaker 6: If not, I think look at the under because the

1243
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 6: total is like I project this at forty nine and

1244
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 6: a half. Now that you know, it's kind of assuming

1245
01:02:20,320 --> 01:02:21,760
Speaker 6: fifty to fifty for some of those guys in the

1246
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:22,480
Speaker 6: Bear secondary.

1247
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:25,640
Speaker 2: But if those guys play, I think there's a little

1248
01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 2: bit of value on the under here. But that is

1249
01:02:28,800 --> 01:02:32,280
Speaker 2: the best of the rest. Now let's get into our

1250
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:34,080
Speaker 2: survivable Pick of the week.

1251
01:02:34,600 --> 01:02:38,960
Speaker 1: One pick, one chance to advance.

1252
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 2: Survivor Week seventeen, one more week. I think we both

1253
01:02:45,680 --> 01:02:46,440
Speaker 2: lost multiple time.

1254
01:02:46,520 --> 01:02:50,360
Speaker 6: I know we've lost multiple times, but yeah, I mean

1255
01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 6: I don't who do you who could you realistically still

1256
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 6: have available that you'd feel comfortable using.

1257
01:02:58,160 --> 01:03:03,040
Speaker 4: This week nobody, right, I'd probably use the Browns if

1258
01:03:03,080 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 4: I had to. I don't think i've maybe I've used them, you.

1259
01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:08,080
Speaker 6: Know, if anyone hasn't used maybe the Tampa Bay Bucks yet.

1260
01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:11,720
Speaker 6: I mean not the worst, you know, given that they

1261
01:03:11,760 --> 01:03:13,440
Speaker 6: are going to be playing for real.

1262
01:03:13,520 --> 01:03:15,080
Speaker 4: If you haven't used the Colts, you have to use

1263
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:17,920
Speaker 4: the Colts or the Browns. I mean, this is the

1264
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 4: teams you have. If you haven't used these teams that

1265
01:03:19,920 --> 01:03:23,080
Speaker 4: are double digit favorites in week seventeen, you have to

1266
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:25,800
Speaker 4: use one of them. But I'll go giants who cares

1267
01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 4: this week seventeen were already out of.

1268
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 2: It, right, I'm all right, give me the Washington.

1269
01:03:30,440 --> 01:03:33,080
Speaker 6: They'll they'll they'll go down like fourteen zip in the

1270
01:03:33,160 --> 01:03:35,880
Speaker 6: first half and end up winning the game like twenty

1271
01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:38,520
Speaker 6: four to twenty three. So yeah, I'll go Washington. But yeah,

1272
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 6: it's tough if you're in it. I would say, just

1273
01:03:40,200 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 6: look at the points spreads go from Weeds to most.

1274
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:44,520
Speaker 6: I mean, I honestly would be a little worried about

1275
01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:47,200
Speaker 6: the the Browns just because but I make that line

1276
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:49,600
Speaker 6: closer to seven, so I kind of have the Browns

1277
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:52,160
Speaker 6: group did more so with the with teams like the

1278
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 6: Saints and the Bucks.

1279
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:55,880
Speaker 2: But yeah, just that's that's pretty much how you do it,

1280
01:03:56,280 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 2: or just go with the vik the Vikings.

1281
01:03:57,840 --> 01:03:59,280
Speaker 6: I don't know if the Lions have it in them

1282
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:02,720
Speaker 6: to to win another game in the twenty twenty season,

1283
01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:05,280
Speaker 6: but that is going to do it for the regular season.

1284
01:04:05,680 --> 01:04:07,560
Speaker 2: For the Action Network NFL Betting Pod, I hope you

1285
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:11,040
Speaker 2: guys enjoyed again. We will be back for the playoffs.

1286
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:15,440
Speaker 2: Just a couple of notes. You can follow Stuck at

1287
01:04:15,440 --> 01:04:16,520
Speaker 2: Stucky two in.

1288
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:19,040
Speaker 6: The Action Network, at for Alls Picks and on Twitter.

1289
01:04:19,160 --> 01:04:21,479
Speaker 6: You can follow me at Chris Raybond in the app

1290
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:25,080
Speaker 6: and on Twitter, and again you can follow the six Pack.

1291
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Speaker 6: You can search Sunday six Pack in the app to

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Speaker 6: follow those. Stuck has a great article upright now on

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Speaker 6: actionnetwork dot com about Week seventeen motivation and how it

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Speaker 6: af hects against the spread performance, so be sure to

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Speaker 6: check that out. Good luck in Week seventeen. Let's get

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Speaker 6: this money.

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Speaker 4: We're finished talking