Speaker 1: Welcome in What Driving nick Wright Episode three eighty, our
Speaker 1: week seven gambling show. This episode of What Drymen nick
Speaker 1: Wright has presented to you as always by our friends
Speaker 1: at boost Mobile, and a remindered all of you please like, rate, subscribe,
Speaker 1: and review to the pot. It really helps us out.
Speaker 1: And also a reminder, all lines are from hard Rock
Speaker 1: bet Demonsey. I've been telling you all year my picks
Speaker 1: have mirrred directly the chief season rocky start, then thought
Speaker 1: we found our footing, then a brief setback, and then
Speaker 1: in week six put the whole world on notice. The
Speaker 1: champs are back four and one last week to get
Speaker 1: to exactly five hundred on the season, just like the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: and really kind of five and one because we initially
Speaker 1: had in there Pittsburgh minus five and oh oh, you
Speaker 1: guys left that in. Oh so here's the thing that
Speaker 1: was not actually I mean, this graphic is fine if
Speaker 1: you remember, in the last minute we took out Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: minus five and a half and put in the Rams
Speaker 1: minus seven. So the Rams minus seven was our official pick.
Speaker 1: Both of them covered. We only get credit for one
Speaker 1: of them. We had Tampa minus three. I can't call
Speaker 1: that one never a doubter, but they did win by
Speaker 1: double digits. KC minus two that was never a doubter.
Speaker 1: Chicago plus four they won out right, and then Dallas
Speaker 1: minus three against Carolina had a chance but lost. So
Speaker 1: last week, if you remember Demons, it was and the
Speaker 1: reason we switched out Pittsburgh for the Rams, it was
Speaker 1: quarterbacks we trust against flawed teams or just quarterbacks we
Speaker 1: super super trust. Ye we didn't we I think it's
Speaker 1: the first time ever we've gone with four favorites and
Speaker 1: just one dog this week. Now that we have our footing,
Speaker 1: now that we're back to five hundred, we are going
Speaker 1: back to what has made this show if you check
Speaker 1: it year over year over year, the most consistent against
Speaker 1: the spread, free publicly available weekly gambling show for the NFL,
Speaker 1: there is we have one year we haven't made money,
Speaker 1: and that year it's because we count the big and
Speaker 1: we finished five hundred. Every other year not only we
Speaker 1: finished above five hundred, but we have finished profitable and
Speaker 1: we're gonna continue that this year with some picks that
Speaker 1: I I'll be honest, are gonna be hard to stomach.
Speaker 1: We will get because we're gonna be betting on some
Speaker 1: bad teams this week. Guys, you can't just bet on
Speaker 1: the good teams, and so there's some bad teams we're
Speaker 1: betting on this week. And I think we're gonna have
Speaker 1: back to back four in one weeks. I can just
Speaker 1: feel it and have it for the first time all
Speaker 1: year be firmly above five hundred. It looks like it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, five five and is possible.
Speaker 1: I feel like this is a four and one week.
Speaker 1: And I say that because I don't the the I
Speaker 1: feel badly if we go four and one and someone
Speaker 1: did parlay the whole thing together and then they don't
Speaker 1: get they don't make any money again, no guarantees, don't
Speaker 1: gamble what you can't afford, all of that. But I
Speaker 1: feel really good about this week's slate, even though these
Speaker 1: are some grimy games we're getting into today's show. Bry
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Speaker 1: home as a favorite. They're massive favorites over the Raiders,
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Speaker 1: We'll see if you need a little help from Kareem Hunt.
Speaker 1: He has scored a touchdown in five straight Week seven games.
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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio,
Speaker 1: Tennessee or Virginia. All right, DEMANSI let's get to the games.
Speaker 1: I'm not betting. I'll give you my leans on them,
Speaker 1: but go ahead.
Speaker 3: London game Rams versus Jacksonville. Jacksonville are three point underdogs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I think the Rams are going to win. However,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville being so familiar playing in London, the Rams taking
Speaker 1: the longest trip you can take in the NFL LA
Speaker 1: all the way to London plus the Puka Nakua uncertainty
Speaker 1: as we sit here recording it is enough for me
Speaker 1: to not want to lay the three points. But if
Speaker 1: I think the Rams are gonna win despite all that,
Speaker 1: getting three is not quite enough so that to stay
Speaker 1: away from me.
Speaker 3: Now they just did against the Ravens. I mean, yeah,
Speaker 3: you know that mighty game plans or whatever. Miami at Cleveland.
Speaker 3: Cleveland's two and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is I mean, I think Dylan Gabriel's been really,
Speaker 1: really bad, but and so being able to go against
Speaker 1: Gabriel and get points would normally be something I would love.
Speaker 1: But Miami might be self emily, and I think that
Speaker 1: the fact that they all week had to address what
Speaker 1: their quarterback said at the podium, and then the quarterback
Speaker 1: had to I just think it's bad vibes in Miami,
Speaker 1: and so bad vibes with a one win team on
Speaker 1: one side of the ball, maybe the worst current starting
Speaker 1: quarterback with a one win team on the other side
Speaker 1: of the ball. If I had to play aside in this,
Speaker 1: I would play Miami. I guess just because I'm getting
Speaker 1: the points, I don't have to play aside. I'll stay
Speaker 1: away from it.
Speaker 3: Oh, next you got New Orleans at Chicago, Chicago's four
Speaker 3: and a half white favorites.
Speaker 1: I'm not yet ready to lay more than two and
Speaker 1: a half points with Caleb and the Bears. I don't
Speaker 1: think they It was a great win for them, and
Speaker 1: they need to continue that momentum. But New Orleans, even
Speaker 1: with just one win, has been just frisky enough and
Speaker 1: Rattler's been just good enough that I don't feel comfortable.
Speaker 1: I don't feel like the Bears have earned being four
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites yet against you know, I
Speaker 1: know New Orleans one of the worst teams, but they're
Speaker 1: a dangerous one four and and so I think that
Speaker 1: is I think that is a fair stance that maybe
Speaker 1: I should just go with New Orleans. I want to
Speaker 1: see because there were a lot of things the Bears
Speaker 1: did really well Monday night that they hadn't been doing well,
Speaker 1: most notably run defense and running the ball. Was that
Speaker 1: a single game thing or was that an out of
Speaker 1: the buy this team improved on those things area. If
Speaker 1: that's the case, then I think they could cover the number.
Speaker 1: I'll just stay away.
Speaker 3: Next, You've got Philly at Minnesota, Minnesota's one and a
Speaker 3: half point Dogs.
Speaker 1: Feels like a bit of a trap. It feels like
Speaker 1: they are begging you, daring you even to bet Philly.
Speaker 1: Philly's lost to in a row, the Vikings are on
Speaker 1: a backup quarterback, Philly needs the game, Philly is on
Speaker 1: extra rest, and Philly is only a point and a
Speaker 1: half favorite. That is fishy to me. I'm stay maybe
Speaker 1: and maybe it is. The thing is you could be
Speaker 1: imploding and still potentially beat Carson Wentz like and so
Speaker 1: it just it is. That's just a stay away from me,
Speaker 1: because it feels like they're they're begging you to bet Philly.
Speaker 3: Next of Vegas at Kansas City, Kansas City's twelve point
Speaker 3: favorites too many points.
Speaker 1: Too many points. But I'm also but I'm also not
Speaker 1: betting on the Raiders. Like this absolutely could be thirty
Speaker 1: one to ten. It also could be a really annoying Raiders.
Speaker 3: I feel like always kind of play the Chiefs a
Speaker 3: little closet they have the last few years, even if
Speaker 3: they've been terrible.
Speaker 1: They obviously beat them on Christmas. Antonio Pierce then talked
Speaker 1: about how they had the blueprint. Antonio Pierce last scene
Speaker 1: wearing Chiefs paraphernalia at the Chiefs training camp practices. He is,
Speaker 1: you know, no longer the head coach of the Raiders.
Speaker 1: Just too many points. I've watched the Chiefs last few
Speaker 1: years not cover these double digit spreads. But I'm not
Speaker 1: betting on the Raiders, so it's staying away.
Speaker 3: We got India at the Chargers. Chargers two point favorites.
Speaker 1: I like Indi in this spot. I almost included them
Speaker 1: on my picks because they're getting points and I think
Speaker 1: they're the better team. I there is an element of
Speaker 1: can that Chargers defense disrupt Daniel Jones That concerns me,
Speaker 1: and it concerned me just enough to stay away from
Speaker 1: this game. But I do think Indy is the right
Speaker 1: side of it.
Speaker 3: Next, you got Washington at Dallas. Dallas one and a
Speaker 3: half point dogs.
Speaker 1: Dalla's very very difficult team to gamble on right now
Speaker 1: because they're just going to hang with anybody and let
Speaker 1: anybody hang with them. The offense is that good and
Speaker 1: the defense is that bad. So I and Washington. I'm
Speaker 1: worried about Jaden coming out of Monday night a little
Speaker 1: banged up and it just took a lot of hits.
Speaker 1: I lean Washington, but that's a stay away.
Speaker 3: Next, Green Bay at Arizona Arizona six and a half
Speaker 3: point dogs. Yeah, well green Bay green Bay is not
Speaker 3: covering that.
Speaker 2: I don't think. I just yeah, I'd take Arizona points.
Speaker 1: What's the I just don't know what's going on with
Speaker 1: Kyler after missing last week. So that's the you know,
Speaker 1: and this is one of the you know, we do
Speaker 1: this on Thursday. Is there? I don't know what the
Speaker 1: news is on that. I also think that there is
Speaker 1: there are too many red flags right now with Green
Speaker 1: Bay to lay a big number with them. But I
Speaker 1: don't feel comfortable about much of anything going on with
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, so I so I'm just gonna stay away.
Speaker 1: And then last one we're staying away from is the
Speaker 1: game of the week.
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay Detroit Detroit's five and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1: Man, it was hard. It was so hard to stay
Speaker 1: away from Tampa Bay here, but it just felt like
Speaker 1: fishy and Detroit is without Brian Branch. They're banged up.
Speaker 1: They just looked bad and they're laying five and a half.
Speaker 1: I thought I when I saw I thought it'd be
Speaker 1: Detroit minus three, maybe three and a half. Five and
Speaker 1: a half's a lot Tampa go.
Speaker 3: Ahead, Baker's just lost everything. I wouldn't bet against Baker
Speaker 3: in this spot. I mean, he just keeps losing guys,
Speaker 3: and he keeps making it happen. But I do feel
Speaker 3: like this is if this is a spot where they're.
Speaker 2: Gonna get got. Like nobody's expecting Baker to win this game.
Speaker 1: If Detroit's desperate, Detroit has to have it, Tampa doesn't.
Speaker 2: I just don't want to go against him yet he's
Speaker 2: he's kept doing it, so.
Speaker 1: He's kept doing it, and so I'm just I'm gonna
Speaker 1: enjoy watching this game. Ravens and Bills are and now
Speaker 1: we are getting to If last week was a week
Speaker 1: of me betting on good quarterbacks, this week is a
Speaker 1: week of me betting on some of the worst quarterbacks
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Let's go with the first pick, Demonse.
Speaker 3: All right, man, exercising that right already? You got Tennessee
Speaker 3: plus seven against New England.
Speaker 1: Listen, I promise I'd never bet on Tennessee again as
Speaker 1: long as Brian Callahan was the head coach. He's not
Speaker 1: the head coach. Seven points is too many, fired coach Bounce.
Speaker 1: Patriots coming off a couple really good wins, First place
Speaker 1: in the division, feeling great about themselves. It feels like
Speaker 1: a game that a young hasn't won anything. Team maybe
Speaker 1: could slip up and lose outright. It certainly feels like
Speaker 1: a game that is going to I think Vrabel is
Speaker 1: not going to be focused on Oh, I got to
Speaker 1: blow these guys out to show them because they fired me.
Speaker 1: I think Vrabel is gonna coach a game of we
Speaker 1: just have to win. Teams who fire their coach go
Speaker 1: from terrible at covering. It's one of the reasons coach
Speaker 1: gets fired. So they cover basically half the time. New
Speaker 1: England's third straight game on the road. That's a bad
Speaker 1: thing for them to have to deal with as far
Speaker 1: as covering. And it's just too many points. I'd love
Speaker 1: seven and a half all take seven in a game
Speaker 1: sneaky Upsettler for the Patriots, but I think the Titans
Speaker 1: keep it close. Ish Tennessee plus seven.
Speaker 2: Jets plus one and a half versus Carolina.
Speaker 1: Okay, so Bryce Young is one and seventeen straight up
Speaker 1: on the road, and he is a road favorite. Okay,
Speaker 1: the Jets are obviously awful. However, here is what I'm
Speaker 1: gonna tell you. This game opened Jets minus one and
Speaker 1: a half, Jets is the favorite. It is now Jets
Speaker 1: plus one and a half, and my decades of gambling
Speaker 1: led me to believe one thing. I can't explain it.
Speaker 1: I don't know why, but this is going to be
Speaker 1: a one point game, and folks that bet Carolina late
Speaker 1: and instead of getting them plus a point and a half,
Speaker 1: are laying a point and a half are going to lose.
Speaker 1: If you are going to bet the Carolina Panthers on
Speaker 1: the road and you are getting the worst line, a
Speaker 1: three point line movement, and you're still betting them, you're
Speaker 1: going to lose. I have no analysis to support this
Speaker 1: other than Carolina minus one and a half. Betters are
Speaker 1: going to lose this week because they didn't get Carolina
Speaker 1: plus one and a half, which means the only way
Speaker 1: that tracks is if this is a one point game.
Speaker 1: I think this is a one point game. Twenty one
Speaker 1: point twenty seventeen sixteen. Something stupid happens in this game.
Speaker 1: It could be a missed extra point, it could be
Speaker 1: a safety. This is a pure The bad gamblers will
Speaker 1: get the bad number on this and lose. So I
Speaker 1: am taking the Jets plus one and a half. The
Speaker 1: other piece of it is this. If you're a Jets fan,
Speaker 1: if you don't win this week, when are you going
Speaker 1: to win? I think that is a fair question, Like
Speaker 1: are you staring at Owen seventeen? Maybe I'll take the
Speaker 1: Jets plus one and a half.
Speaker 3: H next you got the Giants plus seven at Nitor.
Speaker 3: I like this one.
Speaker 1: This is another one that I feel like, sneaky Upsettlert
Speaker 1: Giants on extra rest. This is a big The Giants
Speaker 1: played Thursday, right, they played Thursday in a game they
Speaker 1: didn't even have to fly to or wait that game
Speaker 1: was that Met Life I don't even remember it was,
Speaker 1: but Philly, New York either. Okay, they played Thursday at home.
Speaker 1: Denver played so in London in London and they so
Speaker 1: there's that Denver's offense looked abhorrent in that game. The
Speaker 1: Giants are feeling good. The Giants can win this game outright. Oddly,
Speaker 1: light detector test, Brian Dable might trust or like his
Speaker 1: quarterback more than Sean Payton likes his. This isn't the
Speaker 1: bonitt or Jackson. Dart is not going to be afraid
Speaker 1: of this great Denver defense, even if he should be,
Speaker 1: which maybe will lead to some mistakes, but maybe some
Speaker 1: big plays. It's too many points. The Giants plus seven
Speaker 1: in a game they could win outright.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Atlanta plus plus two at San Francisco.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I the Niners have not played a football game
Speaker 1: missing both Bosa and Fred Warner in more than a
Speaker 1: half decade. I don't think the market understands or as
Speaker 1: factored in what Bijon is going to be able to
Speaker 1: do to a Niners defense without Fred Warner, and so
Speaker 1: I don't care if Perty's coming back. I think the
Speaker 1: Niners are about to have one of the worst defenses
Speaker 1: in football because it's going to take them a lot
Speaker 1: of time to adjust to not having Fred Warner. I
Speaker 1: think Atlanta absolutely can and will win this game outright
Speaker 1: on Sunday Night football. And I think that Drake London
Speaker 1: can have a big game, Bijon can have a big game,
Speaker 1: and that Falcon secondary which is excellent with Purty potentially
Speaker 1: playing his first game back after missing a month. I
Speaker 1: love Atlanta in this spot. I think the wrong team
Speaker 1: is favored. I'll take Atlanta plus.
Speaker 2: Two Seattle minus three versus Houston.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Seattle is a little underrated. They're four
Speaker 1: and two with a loss against the Niners a week
Speaker 1: one that they had a chance to win, and then
Speaker 1: a tough loss to Baker thirty eight thirty five. The
Speaker 1: d line's been good, Darnold's been excellent. Houston, on the
Speaker 1: other hand, I know they're coming off a bye. I
Speaker 1: still don't trust the Houston offense despite what they did
Speaker 1: to Baltimore. So I really really would prefer, obviously to
Speaker 1: be laying two and a half, but I'll swallow it
Speaker 1: and lay the full three. And it's the only favorite
Speaker 1: I'm going with this week. And so my five picks
Speaker 1: this week, I am rolling with Cam Ward and the
Speaker 1: Titans plus seven, Justin Fields and the Jets plus one
Speaker 1: and a half, Jackson Dart and the Giants plus seven,
Speaker 1: Michael Pinnox and the Falcons plus two, and then Sam
Speaker 1: Darnold and the Seahawks minus three. Listen, guys, if it
Speaker 1: were as simple as just bet on the great quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: everybody would make money. We did that one week to
Speaker 1: stable ourselves. It was the right week to do it,
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Speaker 1: I felt bad because I kind of jingsed your teaser.
Speaker 1: I gave you an A plus, I talked about how
Speaker 1: much I loved it. You had been four and one,
Speaker 1: and then not only did you not win it, but
Speaker 1: you didn't win it because my team cost it for
Speaker 1: you in a roundabout way. Last week you had Seattle
Speaker 1: plus nine against Jacksonville they win by eight, Chicago plus
Speaker 1: twelve against Washington they went outright, Detroit plus ten at
Speaker 1: Kansas City and the Chiefs blow out the or beat
Speaker 1: the by what they win by thirteen regardless. So all right,
Speaker 1: what are we looking at this week?
Speaker 2: It was rough?
Speaker 3: So this week we got another three team eight point
Speaker 3: teaser at plus one hundred, where teasing Tennessee up to
Speaker 3: plus fifteen, go ahead, and he's Indie up to plus ten.
Speaker 3: We we got the Giants, he's in the Giants up
Speaker 3: plus fifteen. Feeling this one of my bones, probably lost
Speaker 3: the last one five and two coming up.
Speaker 1: Ay in part, not so much because of key numbers,
Speaker 1: even though you do go through them, but because I
Speaker 1: liked the Titans and the Giants plus seven. Now they're
Speaker 1: plus fifteen, and then Indy I said, I thought could
Speaker 1: win outright, and now you're getting ten. So yeah, I
Speaker 1: like it a lot. I do feel like this is
Speaker 1: five and two. I feel like this is five and
Speaker 1: two Buddy five and the ship.
Speaker 3: I hope you guys are actually placing these bets out here.
Speaker 3: If you just bet your mortgages on these, you'll pay
Speaker 3: your No.
Speaker 1: No, let's not, let's not. Let's not. Let's not encourage that.
Speaker 1: The mortgage betting we shouldn't encourage. Let's just bet sensibly,
Speaker 1: just put it, you know what I mean. Just you're
Speaker 1: just little bit of entertainment, that's all. But it has
Speaker 1: been good. Well, you have been crushing all right, Go.
Speaker 3: Ahead, so last week the offer, Oh wait you do
Speaker 3: you've been picking your TD Genie. I think you're undefeated.
Speaker 3: On TV Genie so far Lifetime. Yeah, last last week
Speaker 3: you picked Xavier Worthy yet plus one twenty five and
Speaker 3: he hit what are there any standouts to you for
Speaker 3: this week?
Speaker 1: Staying away this week? No touchdown, gen I don't no
Speaker 1: touchdown Genie this week?
Speaker 2: Was it Kareem Hunt like the straight week sevens?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I don't. That's not that instructive to me.
Speaker 1: And I just I'm gonna stay away this week. Okay,
Speaker 1: I kind of wanted to do Rashi Rice, but I'm
Speaker 1: just staying away this week.
Speaker 2: That's a little bold, a little bold.
Speaker 1: And so yeah, we're just gonna we're not doing this week.
Speaker 1: We're staying away this week next.
Speaker 3: All right, So the offer fell short last week week
Speaker 3: with Micah and Rashaan Gary both have over a half
Speaker 3: sack plus two ten. So you were talking about how
Speaker 3: bad San Francisco's defense is and Bjeon Robinson's gonna be.
Speaker 2: Rolling through there.
Speaker 3: So we're gonna we're gonna look at Bijon over ninety
Speaker 3: nine and a half rush yards at plus two twenty
Speaker 3: five or a less spicy one Vjon over one hundred
Speaker 3: and seventeen one hundred and seventeen and a half rushing
Speaker 3: plus receiving yards at minus one field.
Speaker 1: All right, so what can we put the bjon I
Speaker 1: want to get it to plus number plus money, but
Speaker 1: I want to have I don't want to do the
Speaker 1: rush yards one. I want to do the combined one.
Speaker 1: So if we did bjon over, is there an alternate
Speaker 1: like plus one? All right, we're just gonna call it.
Speaker 1: I'm making my own market here, bjon over one twenty
Speaker 1: nine and a half rushing and receiving yards at least
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty rushing and receiving yards. That's plus
Speaker 1: one oh five. It feels right. That's the offer this week.
Speaker 1: I like that. I think that I think you'll be
Speaker 1: able to find it with our friends at hard Rock.
Speaker 1: Bijeon's gonna I don't know if it's gonna be on
Speaker 1: the ground or in the air. Is gonna crush? All right?
Speaker 2: Good? Thank you.
Speaker 1: The Yeah, what do you mean? What are you talking about?
Speaker 3: I'm telling he's my most rushing touchdown, most rushing.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, you're before the year. Yeah you need a
Speaker 1: big touchdown. Thank you to Boost, thank you to hard Rock,
Speaker 1: thank you to Volume, thank you to Blue Dog, thank
Speaker 1: you for everyone for listening. Thank you to our friends
Speaker 1: at Zen. Talk to you guys next week. Happy birthday
Speaker 1: to my wife. What's right