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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg PENL podcast. I'm Paul swing you,

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Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day

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Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or

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Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

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Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. We are so lucky to have

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Speaker 1: Mike Bayo with us. Uh. You probably have heard of him,

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Speaker 1: You've read his notes. Uh thirty years in the banking

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Speaker 1: analyzing business places Totsche Bank, Prudential, csfb CLS, c l

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Speaker 1: s A. Currently he is at Wells Fargo as a

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Speaker 1: senior analyst, joining us here in our Bloomberg attor Active

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Speaker 1: Brokers studios. Mike, you move markets yesterday single handedly. You

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Speaker 1: made bank stocks go up because you said, perhaps you're

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Speaker 1: ready to party like. Why, well, we think bank stocks

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Speaker 1: could be ready to party like. Was the start of

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Speaker 1: the best performance of bank stocks in modern history. And

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Speaker 1: let's take us back to that's when you had Paisley

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Speaker 1: ties Forrest Gump, when the movie Academy Award Best Picture,

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Speaker 1: we had Bill Clinton Boris Yeltson always the Springsteen reference. Alright,

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Speaker 1: don't forget about the bank stocks then, really well, and

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Speaker 1: look back then, like today, you had efficiency improving to

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Speaker 1: new levels. Then it was from the federal threat of

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Speaker 1: take over. Today it's technology of digital banking and AI

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Speaker 1: and cloud and blockchain and all that it's really paying off.

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Speaker 1: The other parallel would be deregulation. Actually, Bill Clinton led

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Speaker 1: some de regulation for the banks. Don't forget that. Today

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Speaker 1: it's streamlining from the regulation that's already in place. Oh

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Speaker 1: and also, it was the end of a FED tightening cycle,

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Speaker 1: just like today. Regardless of whether the FED cuts rates

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Speaker 1: or not, it's the end of the FED tightening. I

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Speaker 1: think we can all agree on that. So you have

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Speaker 1: some parallels there. In addition, the bank stock valuations are

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Speaker 1: cheaper today. And in addition, as opposed to the nine

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Speaker 1: nineties when you had to worry about what bank was

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Speaker 1: going to pay what price for what target, today banks

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Speaker 1: are returning record amounts of capital. And you have a

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Speaker 1: major industry event this month that is the FED stress

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Speaker 1: test and approvals for banks return capital. So there's a

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Speaker 1: lot going on in the bank space, and there's still

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Speaker 1: a lot of recency bias. I say recency bias from

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Speaker 1: the financial crisis. Everyone's like, oh, banks are gonna blow up.

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Speaker 1: I'd call that healthy paranoia. The more everybody is concerned

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Speaker 1: about banks blowing up, the less likely it is to occur.

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Speaker 1: So this is a very good time for the bank stocks. So, Mike,

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Speaker 1: how about just in terms of the returns that the

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Speaker 1: big banks can generate today? I have investors really ratcheted

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Speaker 1: down their expectations given the regulatory overhang that's been put

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Speaker 1: on upon the banks after the financial crisis, the days

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Speaker 1: of fifteen or as investors say, Okay, I know I'm

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Speaker 1: not gonna get that, but let's reset from here. Well,

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Speaker 1: what we did in our report, we said, what would

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Speaker 1: the bank returns big if banks, you know, had the

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Speaker 1: same leveraged as they had before the financial crisis, And

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Speaker 1: in a couple of years, we think on an apple

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Speaker 1: to apples basis, banks will have the best returns in history,

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Speaker 1: again after adjusting for leverage. But absolutely, investors and the

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Speaker 1: stock market in the public has reduced their expectations for banks.

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Speaker 1: That's why they're so inexpensive. City groups trading at tangible

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Speaker 1: book value that historically other than the financial crisis that

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Speaker 1: was a recession price. So you have a recession price

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Speaker 1: with that a recession, so you're pricing in a lot

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Speaker 1: of pessimism. Okay, so let's talk about some of the pessimism.

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Speaker 1: Yield curve flattening depending on what you look at inverted

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Speaker 1: inverted for day ten, which is ringing alarm bells in

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Speaker 1: some places. If you look at three month tenure gap,

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Speaker 1: why is this not a problem. Well, that's not ideals equal.

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Speaker 1: You have a rate headwind to the banks, but it's

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Speaker 1: a matter of degree. So if the Fed were to

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Speaker 1: cut twenty five or fifty basis points, some banks earnings

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Speaker 1: could be hurt by one percent. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: a reduction and interest rates is really good for credit quality.

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Speaker 1: It could help a more risk going attitude, It could

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Speaker 1: help fixed income activities, and you have to look at

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Speaker 1: the offsets and steeper yolker would also be pretty good

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Speaker 1: for the bank. So we feel pretty good with where

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Speaker 1: we are. Second pessimistic thought, we are getting to the

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Speaker 1: end of this credit cycle, which would be basically an

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Speaker 1: idea that would be legitimized by the FED cutting rates.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing low losses pick up consumers and corporate Why

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Speaker 1: is that not going to be a problem for the banks.

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Speaker 1: So you're contributing to that healthy pessimism. Absolutely well, come on,

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Speaker 1: I a lot to hear what the responses are, because

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Speaker 1: this is these are the arguments that people are putting

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Speaker 1: out there. No, I think it's fair. Look, credit losses

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Speaker 1: are going higher for the largest banks. We have credit

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Speaker 1: losses almost doubling over the next four years. That's not

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Speaker 1: new news. In fact, if we're wrong, it might be

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Speaker 1: because credit losses don't go up as much as we expect.

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Speaker 1: Oh and by the way, news flash, in a low

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Speaker 1: rate environment, it's easier for people to pay their bills.

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Speaker 1: Another very important point. There are issues out there. Certainly

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Speaker 1: a lot of people are talking about leverage, lending and

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Speaker 1: activities by I have it, equity firms, b dcs, reads,

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Speaker 1: the non bank financial players. That's the talk of the town.

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Speaker 1: That's the chatter. But when it comes to the banks themselves,

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Speaker 1: they've gotten a lot more religion. The boards are asking questions.

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Speaker 1: Every time somebody hiccups, everybody says are you okay? It's

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Speaker 1: like a regulatory swat team swoops in. So I say

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Speaker 1: thank you regulators, because regulators, as opposed to before the

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Speaker 1: financial crisis. Now they give you a little bit extra

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Speaker 1: confidence that banks are not going to blow up. They'll

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Speaker 1: be blow ups, but it's less likely that it will

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Speaker 1: be the banks, even though low losses are going higher.

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Speaker 1: How about the capital markets business. We've seen you know,

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Speaker 1: really rocky fourth quarter for the big banks in terms

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Speaker 1: of their capital markets desks. Uh, not that much better

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter. What's going on there? They lost

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Speaker 1: their touch shorts. It's just the lack of volatility. Sometimes

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Speaker 1: when you got volatility, they say it's the wrong kind

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Speaker 1: of volatility. Can that be a driver of earnings for

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Speaker 1: the banks? I always love that one. Like when things

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Speaker 1: aren't going well, that's bad volatility. When things are going well,

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Speaker 1: it's good volatility. So, um, Look, you've not recovered in

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Speaker 1: the trading business is the last few years like you

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Speaker 1: might have had expected. Um. Look, Uh, some banks recently

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Speaker 1: have guided that you know, their capital marks activities won't

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Speaker 1: be that strong in the second quarter. Um. So to

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Speaker 1: the extent that, um, you get kind of good volatility

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Speaker 1: back or you have a lot of you know, chatter

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Speaker 1: and the markets generally, whether it's you know, trade with

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Speaker 1: Mexico or China or Brexit and a lot of activities,

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Speaker 1: so we yet to break up. But I would say

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Speaker 1: in our earnings models were not expecting much growth, so

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Speaker 1: I think the markets kind of priced that out. If

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Speaker 1: they were to happen, it would be a kind of

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Speaker 1: a call option on the upside. All right, So Mike,

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Speaker 1: you highlighted City Group, followed by Bank of America and

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Speaker 1: then JP Morgan Chase as your top trades within this

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Speaker 1: bullish bank stock call. Are there any banks left out?

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Speaker 1: You know? I this is a twenty five year structural

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Speaker 1: breakout for the benefits of scale in um national banking

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Speaker 1: in the US was permitted for the first time. It

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Speaker 1: didn't work out so well. For twenty five years you

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Speaker 1: had a financial crisis, regulatory change systems issues. But now

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Speaker 1: the largest banks are capitalizing on being national banks. I mean,

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Speaker 1: going back then, I used to have to get travelers

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Speaker 1: checks if I was going to California right like it's

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Speaker 1: and you'd have to switch banks. You're going to college,

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Speaker 1: you're moving home, you have to. Now you can have

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Speaker 1: a bank for life. The concern though, who could be

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Speaker 1: left out? As scales making more of a difference than

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Speaker 1: ever before, especially with technology and marketing. Who's left out

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Speaker 1: it would be the smaller banks. So the biggest question

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Speaker 1: that comes up, um more than ever before is the

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Speaker 1: smaller banks. At what point could they have franchise erosion? Now, look,

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Speaker 1: a lot of small banks have very good service, They

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Speaker 1: have a certain select businesses they can perform well. So

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Speaker 1: as an individual basis, you can find some good ones.

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Speaker 1: But as a group you start to wonder, like the

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Speaker 1: corner Deli when uh, you know one of the uh

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Speaker 1: the big help me out here in New York or

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Speaker 1: or or even Fairway. You could you you could tell

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Speaker 1: I don't do the shopping in my family. So well

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Speaker 1: I'll tell, I'll tell'll teach you a m really interesting.

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Speaker 1: I mean one one question that I have just going

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Speaker 1: forward is you know, are we then going to see

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Speaker 1: consolidation and how long is this sort of secular bullmarket

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Speaker 1: gonna last? Well, we thought you'd see more consolidation already,

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Speaker 1: I mean, b Bing sun Trust. We we like that merger.

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Speaker 1: It's big overlap two banks in the southeast, really getting

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Speaker 1: a lot of synergies. So that was good. And uh,

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Speaker 1: once we saw that, I mean, what does that say

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Speaker 1: about banks you know, number ten through five thousand, if

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Speaker 1: they have enough scale, if these two banks, you know,

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Speaker 1: had to merge, so there's a big question. We haven't

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Speaker 1: seen it, and I think the problem is there's more,

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Speaker 1: you know, buyers and sellers, everybody, every bank wants to

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Speaker 1: go ahead and buy. So the other issue is with

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Speaker 1: a change in political administration, it might not be as

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Speaker 1: easy to merge, depending on what plays out in the

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Speaker 1: presidential elections. So if you're a bank management and you

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Speaker 1: want to for to a bank merger, merge now. Otherwise

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Speaker 1: it might not be so easy. Later on, Mike Mayo,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Mike Mayo, Wells

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Speaker 1: Fargo Securities senior Annals covering the banks with his note

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Speaker 1: about how it might be the time to buy banks

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Speaker 1: right here well amid rising trade tensions, the SNPI down

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Speaker 1: about four from its recent high, but it's still up

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Speaker 1: about twelve for the year. To get a sense of

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Speaker 1: where we go from here, we welcome our next guest,

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Speaker 1: Ken Fisher. Ken as founder, executive chairman and co c

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Speaker 1: IO of Fisher Investments about a hundred seven billion under management,

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Speaker 1: joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Ken,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Um talking just a

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Speaker 1: little bit about that volatility we've seen recently, How how

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Speaker 1: do you factor into your outlook what appeared to be

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Speaker 1: rising trade tensions with some of our biggest partners China, Mexico,

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Speaker 1: maybe India. How does that factor into your outlook? So

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Speaker 1: what I tend to always want to think about is

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Speaker 1: current perceptions versus future realities. And I'm always trying to

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Speaker 1: measure sentiment versus what I think is the scale or

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Speaker 1: measurable size of a good or a bad ahead. And

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Speaker 1: so when I think about all this, I just, for example,

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Speaker 1: in the trade war issue, which is really teriffs in

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Speaker 1: a different way, you just total up all the tariffs

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Speaker 1: that might be applied. You remember that they're not all

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Speaker 1: going to get applied. Then you actually remember that there's

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Speaker 1: going to be some substitution that I buy this instead

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Speaker 1: of that so I don't get that higher price. And

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Speaker 1: then when you think about that, you say, how big

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Speaker 1: is that compared to GDP? And you can actually total

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Speaker 1: them all up. Nobody ever does that. But the scale is,

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Speaker 1: you know about if they were all applied and there

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Speaker 1: was no substitution effect at all, still about one percent

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Speaker 1: of global GDP growth. So I'm one present of global GDP.

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Speaker 1: Excuse me by a third of a normal year's GDP

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Speaker 1: growth with no inflation. If there's some inflation even less.

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Speaker 1: So the impact of that is smaller than people think

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Speaker 1: it is. It's big fear over a relatively small negative,

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Speaker 1: and big fear over a relatively small negative still fits

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Speaker 1: within the framework of a positive. It's easier to see

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Speaker 1: that big fear of a false factor is bullish, but

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Speaker 1: big fear of a little negative is also bullish. Here,

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Speaker 1: so there's a big feature going on that nobody notices

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Speaker 1: that helps us stock. Which is it? Right now? I

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Speaker 1: can borrow money in Europe short term at basically zero,

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Speaker 1: and I can lend it to my own firm in

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Speaker 1: America and then turn around and lend it back out

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Speaker 1: short term with the currency hedge, and I got a

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Speaker 1: two and a half percent hole. I can drive a

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Speaker 1: truck through. And if I can do that, so can

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Speaker 1: every major bank and every major global corporation in the world.

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Speaker 1: And they are and people don't seem to notice that

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Speaker 1: we're getting funded by Europe and Japan right now at

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Speaker 1: a huge rate, and nobody talks about that. It's the

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Speaker 1: reason why in a world war are relatively flat yield

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Speaker 1: curve America's relatively flat yield curve that everybody squawks about

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Speaker 1: is in fact in parallel with a perfectly reasonable growth

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Speaker 1: in the quantity of money because the banks are still

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Speaker 1: lending because they're able to get funded out of Europe

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Speaker 1: and Japan, and nobody really thinks about that. You don't

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Speaker 1: think that city or JP Morgan or or or knows

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Speaker 1: how to borrow in their European operations and lend out

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Speaker 1: in America. So are we long buying banks? Uh I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't focus too much singularly on banks because banks typically

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Speaker 1: are late cycle laggards. They're really not growth companies. But

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Speaker 1: the reality is this is is an argument for America.

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Speaker 1: It's America is getting funded and people don't even notice

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Speaker 1: it's getting funded. Nobody talks about that. Anything that's big

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Speaker 1: that people don't talk about. To me, that's important. The

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Speaker 1: fundamental I got reasons to be optimistic about Europe in

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Speaker 1: a different way that nobody talks about. But the reality

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Speaker 1: of what's going on is that people are afraid of

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Speaker 1: that yield curve. And yet it's really the global yield

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Speaker 1: curve that matters today, not the U S yield curve

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Speaker 1: or any other single countries yield curve because the ability

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Speaker 1: to borrow in one place in London another. I think

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Speaker 1: that one reason why people don't talk about that is

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Speaker 1: because it sounds relatively simple to you. But it's There

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Speaker 1: is another way of saying that, which is, this is

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Speaker 1: the reason why yields have stayed so low in the

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Speaker 1: United States, because there is a sort of divergence in

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Speaker 1: this sort of relative relative game that's being played with

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Speaker 1: Europe and always right, always, but but but then, but

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Speaker 1: then let's play that a different way, because I can

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Speaker 1: hear nearly endless chatter about what should the FED do?

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Speaker 1: What will the FED do? What's going on with the Fed?

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Speaker 1: That that that that that of which I'm largely fed up.

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Speaker 1: And the fact of the matter is, the fact of

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Speaker 1: the matter is that let's say that country, to everyone's expectations,

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Speaker 1: which I don't expect, the FED raised rates right now.

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Speaker 1: What would that do? That would accelerate borrowing from overseason

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Speaker 1: to America. But if you think about them reducing rates

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Speaker 1: right now, if they were to do that, which I

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Speaker 1: also don't expect them to do, but if they did,

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Speaker 1: that would reduce the spread. That would motivate folks to

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Speaker 1: be barring overseas and lending into America. So in that regard,

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Speaker 1: you could say, simply, which I've always believed, that the

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Speaker 1: fit is less important than people think it is. That's

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Speaker 1: not to say it's not important, but it's less important

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Speaker 1: than people think it is. But what happens if there's

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Speaker 1: a major move in the dollar? I mean, does that

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Speaker 1: disrupt some of these changes? If there's a I agree

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Speaker 1: with that, But let's just go back to a crisis,

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Speaker 1: Every darn crisis you've ever seen in history, no real exceptions,

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Speaker 1: the dollar goes up, not down. And the fact is

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Speaker 1: what has been happening as we've gone through this year.

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Speaker 1: The dollar has been strong. Why has the dollar been

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Speaker 1: strong because money has been flowing from those other places

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Speaker 1: into here. You mentioned Europe as someplace you might have

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Speaker 1: an interest. Why would that be. It seems like there's

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Speaker 1: generally weakening economies there, uncertainty of Brexit. What draws your

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Speaker 1: attention to Europe? About seventeen things from Sunday, But let

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Speaker 1: me start off with just a couple of more important

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Speaker 1: ones since we don't have because we don't have between

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Speaker 1: now and Sunday, the fact is a let me go

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Speaker 1: back to America for a second third years of president's

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Speaker 1: terms have been positive of history since the nineteen twenties.

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Speaker 1: Because the midterm elections give us gridlock, governments will become

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Speaker 1: inactive and what's otherwise, the moving obstacle course of regulatory

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Speaker 1: and legislative change turns into a stationary obstacle course, and

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Speaker 1: business will become more willing to take risks as they

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Speaker 1: can maneuver around the stationary obstacles or the more stationary

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Speaker 1: obstacles relative prior moving ones. We have a similar thing

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Speaker 1: going on in Europe that people don't get in two ways.

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Speaker 1: One is that parliaments across Europe have had their ideological

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Speaker 1: spectrums completely hand kacked out like a bell curve pushed

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Speaker 1: down in the middle out on the edges, and coalitions

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Speaker 1: agree on almost nothing. There's almost complete gridlock politically across

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Speaker 1: all of Western Europe. Secondarily, just like American elections, their

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Speaker 1: elections they just had a few weeks ago, actually not

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Speaker 1: even a few we've had eight of before. The history

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Speaker 1: of the aftermath of those elections in the next twelve

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Speaker 1: months is overwhelmingly possible. Only once it was negative, the

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Speaker 1: very first one, and it was only negative two point

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Speaker 1: six percent on average, they're positive eleven of the next

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Speaker 1: twelve months because you get that same feature, which is

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Speaker 1: that people fear just like they feared what if those

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Speaker 1: crazy populus take everything over? And then in fact the

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Speaker 1: fears of the election end up being less bad than

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Speaker 1: people feared, and you get a more stable world, and

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Speaker 1: the more stable world markets like that better than they expected.

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Speaker 1: Expectations versus reality is always the game, and I expect

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Speaker 1: both of those two political features to play in Europe

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Speaker 1: than the final point. Just look last night, p m

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Speaker 1: I S across Europe came up better than expected in

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Speaker 1: almost every single country, almost every single one, and particularly

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Speaker 1: people focus on negatives and manufacturing p m S when

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Speaker 1: they don't focus on positives and services p m I S,

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Speaker 1: and yet services three times a size of manufacturing across Europe.

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Speaker 1: Ken Fisher, Unfortunately, we're gonna have to leave it there,

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Speaker 1: although I'm gonna have to lobby from here till Sunday

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Speaker 1: for the next time, because it's fabulous having you on.

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Speaker 1: Ken Fisher, Founder, executive chairman and co chief investment Officer

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Speaker 1: of Fisher Investments, with a hundred and seven billion dollars

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Speaker 1: of assets under management M and a deal volume is

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Speaker 1: down in versus last year. Trade tensions certainly cannot be

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Speaker 1: helping to get a sense of what's going on in

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Speaker 1: the global M and A space. We're very fortunate to

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Speaker 1: have Mark Schaeffer here, Marcus co, head of global Mergers

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Speaker 1: and Acquisitions at City. He joined us in our Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: and after Broker studio, and he's I think he's speaking

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Speaker 1: in at the Bloomberg invest conferences. We just we just

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Speaker 1: did a panel. Yes, okay, so what was your panel?

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Speaker 1: It was on it was an okay, it wasn't on

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Speaker 1: you know, politics. Sorry, I mean, what's so? I guess

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Speaker 1: trade volumes MNY volumes are down this year. What's kind

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Speaker 1: of the tone of the market. What are you seeing

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Speaker 1: the drivers here? So it's it's interesting because it's sort

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Speaker 1: of a thin market. Right, I'm gonna give you the good,

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Speaker 1: the bad, and the ugly. Right. The good is on

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Speaker 1: the positive side, it's the fourth fastest start in history,

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Speaker 1: second fastest start since the financial crisis. But that's sort

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Speaker 1: of when you get to the bad. It's a it's

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Speaker 1: a thin or a narrow market in the sense of

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Speaker 1: a couple of He's one is it's regionally very skewed

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Speaker 1: to the US, and volumes in Asia and Europe are

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Speaker 1: way down, you know, thirty ish. The US is down

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Speaker 1: about eleven. It's also narrow from an industry perspective. The

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Speaker 1: only industries that are up this year are tech, industrial

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Speaker 1: and energy, and the other piece of it it's a

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Speaker 1: little bit daunting is that it's very skewed to The

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Speaker 1: mega deals twenty billion and up are sort of at

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Speaker 1: record levels. The one to five billion, which we call

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Speaker 1: a sweet spot or wave down about in the number

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Speaker 1: of deals. The ugly is the macro environment to a

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Speaker 1: political environment appears to be worsening. So from a second

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Speaker 1: half perspective, that does give us some pause for concern.

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Speaker 1: So what about what happened to healthcare? Are we going

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Speaker 1: to see this wave of consolidation that was gonna create

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Speaker 1: these uh incredible get your pharmacy supplies, get your beauty,

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Speaker 1: get your doctor, and get a cat scan kind of places. Look,

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Speaker 1: we know it started that way. I mean it's uh

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Speaker 1: and if you look at actually the US, it's techn

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Speaker 1: healthcare of driven the volumes. But you know, cel Gene

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Speaker 1: was obviously being part of that. We were fortunate enough

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Speaker 1: to be in that um I I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: It's sort of it. We were expecting more, we haven't

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Speaker 1: quite seen as much. Be interesting to see how it

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Speaker 1: how it plays out the rest of the year and

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Speaker 1: into next year. How about I mean, when you look

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Speaker 1: at the pipeline or the deals to date, gives a

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Speaker 1: sense of kind of how much of our strategic buyers

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Speaker 1: coming in making strategic acquisitions as opposed to some of

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Speaker 1: the financial deals driven by the you know, LBO shops

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Speaker 1: are private acquasure Look. I mean, it's it's still largely

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Speaker 1: been a strategic market, UM. And that's that's obviously been

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Speaker 1: He's been driven this market over the last several years.

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Speaker 1: But what is interesting, UM, in the in the last

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Speaker 1: three months, we've seen in each month twenty billion dollar

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Speaker 1: plus financial sponsored transactions, which is up, so more of

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Speaker 1: a shift to the by side for quite a couple

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Speaker 1: of years. For number of years, there was a lot

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Speaker 1: of monetizations going on, and now we're seeing more of

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Speaker 1: a shift to the buy side as valuations come down.

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Speaker 1: You would expect that, and particularly if it's a secular

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Speaker 1: shift where people believe it's a reset, that'll make it

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Speaker 1: um you know that that that will make leverage transactions

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Speaker 1: more affordable. So I'm interested in sort of what is

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Speaker 1: causing the slowdown, especially because financing is still cheap, depending

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Speaker 1: on whether you go to the loan side of the

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Speaker 1: hyo band side, it's pretty cheap. And then of course

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Speaker 1: in the corporate credit I have to think about regulators,

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Speaker 1: and we just had this story this week about any

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Speaker 1: truck regulators looking into big tech. How much is that

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Speaker 1: huge dampening factor on EM and A right now? You

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Speaker 1: know unequivocally it it's had an impact. I mean that

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Speaker 1: that you know the the the issues are. It's it's

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Speaker 1: much now it's much harder. I would say under the

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Speaker 1: previous administration from an anitrust perspective, if you were in

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Speaker 1: a certain set of parameters, you you've got pretty good advice.

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Speaker 1: You could probably get it done. It's much harder in

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Speaker 1: this administration, particularly with the emphasis and I trust on

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Speaker 1: structural remedies. Um, but I do think it's had a

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Speaker 1: and and the other piece of it. It's really mad

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Speaker 1: matters is it's just length. Anything that's close to the line.

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Speaker 1: The deal duration as it were, as lengthened to as

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Speaker 1: much as two years, very very difficult to be in

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Speaker 1: basically on an agreed deal basis have to wait two

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Speaker 1: years to close it. It changes your forecasts, It impacts,

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Speaker 1: you know, the ability to retain employees. So yes, it's

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Speaker 1: it's clearly had an impact, but I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: the soul, you know, sort of sort of rationale here.

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Speaker 1: Part of it is, listen, we've got a more challenging environment.

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Speaker 1: Arguably there's talk about is at the end of the cycle.

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Speaker 1: Is the end of the equity cycle? Um? With the

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Speaker 1: China trade situation looking like it's worsening, it could very

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Speaker 1: well be, you know, and you've got fragmented politics in Europe,

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Speaker 1: so it's a you know, it's it's a more daunting environment.

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Speaker 1: I think of a number of these factors have gotten

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Speaker 1: into it. But the fact of the matter is we're

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Speaker 1: still seeing very big deals get done. So you can

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Speaker 1: argue it's still a risk on market. Well, the good news,

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Speaker 1: I guess for a city, I'm looking at the m

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Speaker 1: A GO function on the Bloomberg Terminal Cities. Uh, we

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Speaker 1: have a year to date ranked third behind JP Morgan

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Speaker 1: and Goleman Sack. So you guys are performing well relative

429
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 1: to your peers, but beneath when you sit down with

430
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 1: CEOs and boards. I would guess just in the last

431
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 1: couple of months, how much of the trade tensions, the rhetoric,

432
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: the uncertainty of global trade, is that factoring into their

433
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 1: appetite to think maybe strategic Look, I think it's an

434
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: increasing function. I mean to to be candid. I think

435
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 1: that um, as I said, it's still a bit of

436
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,679
Speaker 1: a risk on market something that is becomes actionable. It's

437
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 1: been very high on the priority list for a number

438
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 1: of years. That is going to be taken off the table.

439
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 1: The scarce real estate argument. Um, I think they're still

440
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: getting done. But I do think that as the perception

441
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 1: is now that this the you know, the trade dispute

442
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: with trying to could lengthen that could have impact on growth,

443
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 1: and growth is a big driver, you know GDP growth

444
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 1: is a big driver. And as solid economy, M and

445
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 1: A does well in a in a in a tougher economy,

446
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 1: M and A doesn't do as well. So I am

447
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: seeing increasingly creep into the discussion about it is should

448
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: we do something material now talking about sort of some

449
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,199
Speaker 1: of these trade tensions. What about cross border deals? You

450
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 1: know there by our data there at the lowest the

451
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 1: first five months of the year on a year to

452
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 1: day basis the lowest we have in our database. It's

453
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 1: only about of the volumes. It's typically thirty or or higher.

454
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 1: How far back does your database and this goes back

455
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 1: to two thousand at least. I don't know if we

456
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 1: go back into the nineties or even further, but it's

457
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 1: it's it's it's really really underscores that it's become a

458
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 1: sort of a regional market, as it were, and that

459
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,159
Speaker 1: you know, a more mercantile world that we live in

460
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 1: is having an impact. There are still some places where

461
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 1: it's getting done. I mean the market is still it's

462
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 1: not insignificant, but it's way down relative to what it's been.

463
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: So Mark, managing your business, it all comes down to talent.

464
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 1: Tell us about you know the marketplace today the former talent.

465
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 1: It's not the seat, it's the person. I guess we're

466
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 1: not at that time. I want to become a radio

467
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 1: exactly exactly. So I mean, how is it retaining or

468
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 1: attracting and retaining talent. I know a lot of the

469
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 1: kids are all going out the Silicon Valley to tech

470
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 1: technology companies and then private equity and venture capitals out there.

471
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 1: How about for the traditional investment banking track M and

472
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: A track. What's the market like? Look, it's I mean,

473
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 1: it's a very competitive world. I mean unequivocally and um.

474
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 1: But you know, i'd say we're we see great talent.

475
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: We see it, you know, at the coming out of

476
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 1: the universities, we see it coming out of the business schools.

477
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 1: We get you know, laterals. But you know, make no

478
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: mistake about it. I mean, there are a lot of

479
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: options for you know, for very talented individuals, whether it

480
00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 1: be you know, so the hedge fund world, private equity,

481
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:04,200
Speaker 1: Silicon valley entrepreneurship. But we think we do pretty well. Um,

482
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: We're very happy with what we have. And you know,

483
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 1: I think that you know, I would argue that there

484
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 1: was a period a few years ago, post a crisis,

485
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 1: that banking might have been a little out of favor.

486
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 1: I think that's shifting, particularly the US banks, you know,

487
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: just given the fact that we you know, are now

488
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: in a you know, in a very strong position from

489
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: a capital perspective and otherwise. So right now, it just

490
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: sort of talking about where we expect deal volume to

491
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 1: actually be should it pick up in the second half.

492
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 1: And I'm wondering. Oil prices now at the lowest since

493
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 1: the end of January, and we did see actually, you know,

494
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: we didn't see as much consolidation as people had expected

495
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 1: after the big debaccle with the oil prices plunging, uh

496
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,879
Speaker 1: and and a lot of companies went bankrupt. Are you

497
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: expecting a new wave of consolidation in the oil and

498
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: gas sector? You know, but post oxy which we were

499
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: involved in, UM, you would think that there would be

500
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 1: you know, an impetus to to some more consolidation. The

501
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 1: question is, you know, will it will it play? Because

502
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: the competing factor is you've got a arguably, you know,

503
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 1: sort of an economic environment that that is worsening, and

504
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 1: the extent that happens, you know that people go to

505
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: a risk off sort of mentality. But you would think

506
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: that an energy particularly the upstream, you know, there are

507
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: a lot of logical potential combinations. Uh. You know, but

508
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: like anything else, you have to it takes both buyer

509
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 1: and seller to get together on these things, which is

510
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: probably the reason why we didn't see more deals getting

511
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 1: done back in two thousand and fifteen two sixteen, I

512
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: remember everyone was expecting that. Instead we just saw bankruptcies

513
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 1: and restructurings. Mark Schaffer, thank you so much for joining

514
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: us at having you here. Mark Schaefer is a co

515
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 1: head of global mergers and Acquisitions at City Group. Well,

516
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: first it was China, then Mexico, perhaps now India and

517
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: maybe even Cuba. Trade tensions between the US and some

518
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: of its biggest partners are escalating. To get a sense

519
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: of what this means for the global economy, we welcome

520
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 1: Brad Setzer. Brad is stephen A Tannebaum Senior Fellow for

521
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 1: International Economics at the Council of Foreign Relations. He joins

522
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 1: us here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Brad, thanks

523
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Let's start with China.

524
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 1: Just I mean, that's probably just the most developed story,

525
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: I guess if you will. And we've had, you know,

526
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: negotiators going back and forth, but tariffs are going back

527
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,439
Speaker 1: and forth. Where do we stand now? How do you

528
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 1: think this might play out? So I guess at this

529
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: stage my baseline is that Trump will carry out his

530
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: threat to put tariffs on all trade, all imports UH

531
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 1: from China. Right now, we've raised tariffs on two d

532
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 1: and fifty billion to and there's about three hundred billion

533
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: of trade left to tariff, mostly electronics, mostly close. Most

534
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 1: of the industrial impact it's have already been tariffed. So

535
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 1: given your experience, and you have extensive experience with even

536
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 1: the Treasury Department analyzing the economic impact of things like tariffs,

537
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 1: what will the fallout be from that base case in

538
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 1: terms of economic uh slowdown or points off the GDP

539
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 1: for both the US and China. Well, the impact is

540
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: somewhat larger on China. I would put the base estimate

541
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 1: for the overall impact of the full ensemble of tariffs

542
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 1: and not the incremental effect on the US at about

543
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 1: a half point of GDP, just you know, you're more

544
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: paying more for imports, there's less money in the economy

545
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: to buy other things. Uh. And then the impact on China,

546
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 1: because trade is more important to the Chinese economy, is

547
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 1: probably twice that. So about a point that assumes no

548
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: policy response. And I think you know the market, certainly

549
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: the bond market is increasingly anticipating that the FED will

550
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 1: try to off set some of the impact. Chinese policymakers

551
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: will certainly try to offset some of the impact. What

552
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: is your sense of you know, you have a baseline

553
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: case on kind of how you think this might play out.

554
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 1: Do we get an agreement? When do we get an agreement?

555
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: What is your thoughts? What are your thoughts there? Well,

556
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: right now, there isn't an active negotiation between the US

557
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 1: and China. That negotiation broke down about a month ago

558
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 1: when the President tweeted that China was walking back their

559
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 1: offer and threatened and then carried out the threat to

560
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 1: raise tariffs from ten to twenty five on two billion.

561
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: The President and President She will have a chance to

562
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 1: meet in Japan at the end of June at the

563
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 1: G twenty UH. They could agree on a new negotiating process,

564
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: and likely in that case they would agree. The President

565
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 1: would agree to defer the tariffs on the further three billion.

566
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: Maybe China would agree to some goodwill gestures and they

567
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: would go back to the negotiating table. But don't at

568
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: this stage see a scenario where they would reach agreement

569
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: in June to walk back the existing tariffs before we

570
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 1: shift to North America. Because the trade tariff tension is

571
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 1: picking up here, I'm wondering who is the beneficiary, if

572
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: there are any beneficiaries of the trades between the US

573
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: and China. Well, at the biggest beneficiaries to date have

574
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 1: been other Asian economies which can substitute for Chinese production.

575
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: So there's been a big pickup in imports from Vietnam,

576
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: for example. Over time, you would expect to see a

577
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: broader set of beneficiaries as supply chains, and just one

578
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: of the biggest potential beneficiaries, you know, to pivot to

579
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: North America is Mexico. But it's a little hard to

580
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: make a decision to orient your supply chain away from

581
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: China and towards Mexico if you're anticipating tariffs on Mexico too.

582
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: So it seems like initially it was just the U

583
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: S And China and you could see some longstanding issues here.

584
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: But the Trump administration seems to be expanding their tariffs,

585
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: expanding their um you know, their their commerce policy to

586
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 1: Mexico for other reasons, maybe for to India maybe too,

587
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: maybe the other parts of Europe. What do you think

588
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: the strategy is of this White House? You know, when

589
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: you said Trump administration, I immediately thought, well, we're really

590
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: just talking about President Trump. Uh. President Trump seems to

591
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: like tariffs, and I don't think it's more complicated than that. Uh,

592
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 1: there's been abundant reporting by every major news outlet that

593
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: the bulk of the administration and including the U S.

594
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: Trade Representative Bob Leightheiser, were opposed to the use of

595
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 1: the latest tariff threat against Mexico. This is the president,

596
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 1: and for now, the president likes tariffs. So one thing

597
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: that I find interesting is that China is the world's

598
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 1: second largest economy, and yet the way that markets seem

599
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 1: to be responding is much more severely to the threat

600
00:31:55,800 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 1: of Mexico tariffs on the US economy than tariff in

601
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 1: China and the effect on the US economy. So, given

602
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: your history and experience doing economic analyzes of tariffs and

603
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 1: trade issues, how much more of an impact would the

604
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 1: sort of threatened tariffs on Mexico have on the US economy.

605
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 1: I think there's probably three important points to make here.

606
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: The first is that if you sum up imports from

607
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 1: Mexico and auto imports which the President is is threatening

608
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 1: from Europe and Japan and Canada, you get a total

609
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: of about five billions, so it's roughly equal in size

610
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 1: two current imports from China. If you look at exports

611
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 1: UH the U S actually exports proportionately more to Mexico

612
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 1: and to Europe than it does to China, so the

613
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 1: opportunities on the other side for retaliation are stronger. But

614
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 1: I think the third and probably most important point is

615
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:55,959
Speaker 1: that the president has threats against China emerged out of

616
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: a a standard you might say, trade process at three

617
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: a one complaint UH that was derived from long standing

618
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: concerns about Chinese commercial practices. The threat against Mexico materialized

619
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: out of the blue. It exerts presidential authority foreign national

620
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: security emergencies and tries to use that authority to essentially

621
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 1: raise tariffs in a week at the whim of the

622
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 1: President UH in a way that hasn't been done before.

623
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: So when the market has to set a suddenly factor

624
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: in the increased uncertainty as well as the direct threat.

625
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 1: So in other words, it was maybe perhaps not that

626
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 1: the economic impact would be that much more on the

627
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 1: Mexico teiriffs, but that it had not been priced into

628
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 1: the market in any way. Is that accurate? I think

629
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 1: two weeks ago, the baseline assumption was that there was

630
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: going to be a fight about ratification of U S

631
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 1: m c A, but there weren't going to be tariffs

632
00:33:55,920 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: on Mexico obviously that baseline assumption has been overturned. Tequila Corona,

633
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 1: I mean some big issues for the economy I thought,

634
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 1: I mean the really big one from you know set

635
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 1: Aside the advocado issue and the Corona issue, the big

636
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: one is auto parts and the absolutely Brad s thank

637
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 1: you so much for being here. Always fantastic to have

638
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 1: your perspective. Brad Setser is the Steven A. Tannenbaum Senior

639
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: Fellow for International Economics at the Council of Foreign Relations.

640
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,439
Speaker 1: He's also a senior advisor at Exante Data. He also,

641
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 1: just to give you a sense, served as Deputy Assistant

642
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,720
Speaker 1: Secretary for International Economic Analysis in the US Treasure Department

643
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 1: from two thousand and eleven to two thousand and fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa bram Woyds. I'm on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa A. Bram Woit's one before the podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio. It