1 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: On this episode of Newsworld, it has been one year 2 00:00:08,200 --> 00:00:12,479 Speaker 1: since Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin thought he would easily invade 3 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:16,639 Speaker 1: Ukraine and take over the country. Instead, the Ukrainians have 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: put up a strong defense and have fought the Russians 5 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: at every point. It's been incredible to watch Ukraine unite 6 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 1: to save their country. However, many of us wonder what 7 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: will come next. Will there be a ceasefire, will Putin 8 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:35,239 Speaker 1: ever agreed to back down? Will Putin invade other countries 9 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: that were once part of the USSR? On this first anniversary, 10 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: I wanted to have a thoughtful discussion about what's happening 11 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, and I'm really pleased to welcome my guest, 12 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 1: Victoria Coates. She is the former National Security Council's Special 13 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Strategic Communications 14 00:00:55,920 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: under President Trump, and currently a Senior Research fello for 15 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: International Affairs and National Security in the Margaret Thatcher Center 16 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:17,839 Speaker 1: for Freedom at the Heritage Foundation. Victoria, welcome and thank 17 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 1: you for joining me on Neutral. Mister speaker, thank you 18 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: for having me on. First of all, just your general 19 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: thoughts about Biden's trip to Kiev and then to Poland. 20 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 1: What do you think was accomplished by that, Well, it 21 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: unfortunately looked to me very much like the nascent Biden 22 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 1: reelection campaign sending the President out to capture b Roll. 23 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: You know, I think it is appropriate that the President 24 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: would go to Kiev, given the scale of the US 25 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: support for the war in Ukraine. But it really worries 26 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: me to have a president of the United States on 27 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: a train for ten hours, on the ground for five hours, 28 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: that on a train again for ten hours, when Vladimir 29 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: Putin knows exactly where he is because they tipped the 30 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,040 Speaker 1: Russians off in advance. That seems to me a really 31 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,559 Speaker 1: shocking use of the president's time and risk to his security. 32 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: And I think all Americans are wondering why he couldn't 33 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: have stopped by East Palestine, Ohio before making this arduous journey. Well, 34 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: I'm also curious why they didn't just fly Air Force 35 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:21,360 Speaker 1: one into Kiev. Mean, I think it extraordinarily unlikely that 36 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 1: the Russians would have interfered, because that would be an 37 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: act of war against the United States. I guess what 38 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: I'm confused by is it seemed to me it was 39 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: a nice pr stunt, But we're not sending them the 40 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: equipment they need. We're not moving at the speed we 41 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 1: need to move at. And it strikes me that a 42 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: lot of Ukrainians are dying unnecessarily because the Western Alliance 43 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: is so bureaucratic and so timid, and so unwilling to 44 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: fully equip them. They have to have a qualitative edge 45 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: because they'll never match the Russians person per person. What's 46 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 1: your general thought about how over the last year the 47 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 1: West has responded to this direct assault. Well, that's really 48 00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 1: what's so frustrating about this is you said in the intro, 49 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian people have put up a remarkable and in 50 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: many ways inspiring fight for their sovereignty and their freedom, 51 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 1: and so there's a lot to work with here, which 52 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 1: year ago we didn't think we had because we thought 53 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:19,520 Speaker 1: we were having the Three Day War, there would be 54 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: an insurgency, Zelinsky would go into exile, and we would 55 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: somehow support the insurgency to try to make Putin's life miserable. 56 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 1: But by April it was clear that was an intelligence failure, 57 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 1: and intelligence failures happen. No sort of information is perfect. 58 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: What matters is what you do when you realize what 59 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: the actual facts on the ground are, and I don't 60 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 1: see any evidence that either the Biden administration or Berlin 61 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: or Paris really got a handle on the fact that 62 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians could win this thing. They still don't seem 63 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: to have a handle on it. And every time we 64 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: increase aid to the Ukrainians, there's six weeks of handwringing 65 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: in the press, which I'm sure delights to watch that 66 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 1: going on. And we never have had out of President 67 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: Biden a clear strategy. You know, now we're in it 68 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 1: to win, and what does that look like? Because for 69 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 1: me and what we've defined at the Heritage Foundation as 70 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 1: a sort of a red line is not having this 71 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: happen again. You know, this is Putin's third incursion, first Georgia, 72 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,799 Speaker 1: now twice into Ukraine in the last fifteen years. And 73 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: what last thing I want to do is to have 74 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: us sitting here in five years having a similar conversation 75 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 1: because he's taken a bite out of one of the Baltics. 76 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: From your perspective, does winning mean driving them back not 77 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,799 Speaker 1: only out of Western Ukraine, but out of the whole 78 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: region in eastern Ukraine, which has been sort of an 79 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: insurgency since twenty fourteen. I really think the question of 80 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 1: what is going to be the territorial integrity of Ukraine 81 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: is a question for Kiev. I think the question for 82 00:04:55,800 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: Washington is ensuring that the Russian military is sufficient degraded 83 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: and Putin's political calculus has changed, so he realizes that 84 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,799 Speaker 1: it would be more damaging to him to take another 85 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,800 Speaker 1: military adventure given the state of his armed forces, and 86 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 1: that that would be what could potentially really undermine his power. 87 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: So in my mind, the key is prevented from having 88 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 1: that happen again. I personally think he should not be 89 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: rewarded in any way for this devastating, shockingly violent, horrific war, 90 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: and so ideally, yes, he would not gain any additional 91 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:38,119 Speaker 1: territory from this invasion. I think part of the schizophrenia 92 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:41,440 Speaker 1: and the Biden administration and in Western Europe is that 93 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: a real fear that if they were to decisively defeat 94 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 1: Putin that he would lash out in ways, whether nuclear 95 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: or otherwise, that people have not really thought through how 96 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,799 Speaker 1: they would cope with. Well, there's certainly always a risk, 97 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 1: and as we've learned from hard experience, when you do 98 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: decisively defeat a dictator like Putin, there's always a worse 99 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: monster waiting in the wings, and so certainly we have 100 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,119 Speaker 1: to think through very carefully, you know, what the US, 101 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: what the NATO role would be in the event that 102 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 1: Putin is defeated, and I think sort of along those lines, 103 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: you know, paying very close attention to what happens to 104 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: the various storage units for the Russian nuclear arsenal is 105 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: something I hope the Pentagon is spending a lot of 106 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: time on, because if Russia were to sort of start 107 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 1: to kind of break apart, you would have then a 108 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: series of these nuclear harmed statelets across Eastern Europe and Asia, 109 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: and that's hardly desirable. So there are many many dangers 110 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 1: to this. And the problem though, is that the Biden 111 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 1: administration approach, which is to try to kind of balance 112 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 1: this thing and not go too far in any direction, 113 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: has resulted in this grinding stalemate that's gone on for 114 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: a year. And the most concerning thing to me is 115 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 1: the reporting in the Wall Street Journal last night that 116 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 1: the administration is considering releasing intelligence of China sending actual 117 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 1: weapons to Putin for Ukraine, which is tentamount to saying 118 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: they have the intelligence if they're considering releasing it. But 119 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: I think they need to get that in front of 120 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: the American people immediately, because what that means is that 121 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: deterrence has not only failed to stop Putin from invading Ukraine, 122 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: it's also failed with g and China. Don't you see though, 123 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: a clear Russian Chinese alliance with Russia ironically now as 124 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: the junior partner indeed, and I think that we can 125 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 1: add something to the axis of evil there, which would 126 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: be Iran, because the Iranians are fully participant in this 127 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: as well. And that's really going to be a conundrum 128 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: for the administration because they have not done anything significant 129 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: to ratchet up sanctions against Iran. They've had a couple 130 00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: individual I would call them photo op designation, but nothing 131 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 1: serious like the maximum pressure campaign that we worked on 132 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 1: in the Trump administration. And if indeed they have clear 133 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 1: intelligence that China is shipping arms to Putin and they 134 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: don't respond with the kind of extremely strong economic sanctions 135 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: that would really get Gie's attention, this could be a 136 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: tipping point in favor of Russia, because I don't think 137 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: g is going to have any of the sort of 138 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: concerns or niceties about escalation that the Biden administration has. 139 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 1: At the same time, I saw one reference that we 140 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: were going to release seven billion dollars in frozen assets 141 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: for a run. Prisoner has changed, Neil. There are a 142 00:08:42,720 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: couple of things going on. They both starting to peel 143 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: back the sanctions and then a kind of reprisal of 144 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: the Obama era palettes of cash for prisoners arrangement, which 145 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 1: is just extraordinary. This instead of a shift of topic 146 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: to or Iran. But we're at this amazing moment in 147 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 1: Iran where protests have been going on for months now 148 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: in a much more focused, sort of organic fashion than 149 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: we've seen in the past. And now is not the 150 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: moment to be sending resources to the mullahs in Tehran 151 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,960 Speaker 1: to give them a lifeline so they can hang on 152 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 1: and impose their surveillance state on the people of Iran. 153 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: So it really is amazing, especially given the fact that 154 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: the Iranians are sending drones to Russia. They are looking 155 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: at setting up a drone factory in Russia. I mean, 156 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 1: why would you be rewarding them for this sort of behavior. 157 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: How do you explain the sort of Obama John Kerry 158 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 1: Biden fascination with Iran and willingness to do almost anything 159 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 1: to try to find a way to accommodate the Iranians. Well, 160 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: I think it starts with a basic misassumption that the 161 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: Iranians are reasonable, and this I think became prevalent during 162 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:02,839 Speaker 1: the Ruhani administration due to the personal friendship between then 163 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: Secretary Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif, that these people 164 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 1: were someone that the United States could deal with. And 165 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: there was also, and this goes back to the Obama administration, 166 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 1: a prevailing assumption that a strong Iran could be a 167 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: stabilizing factor in the Middle East, that Israel was fundamentally destabilizing, 168 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: potentially dragging the United States into another war. And then 169 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: on the other hand, though, if you have a stronger 170 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 1: Iran that would balance Israel and create a more level 171 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 1: playing field. I've heard these words out of them in 172 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: the region. So that is fundamentally different from what we 173 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: had in the Trump administration, which was the assumption that 174 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 1: Iran was not a reasonable actor, could not be trusted, 175 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: and that Israel is the United States's greatest both ally 176 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: and asset in the Middle East, and that we want 177 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: to strengthen Israel and then star of Iran of resources 178 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: to prevent them from spreading violent mayhem across the Middle East, 179 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 1: and the Biden folk, the heirs of the Obama policy, 180 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:14,079 Speaker 1: have just taken the absolute opposite approach. It's doubly amazing 181 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 1: to me because the State Department has consistently under both 182 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans, listed Iran as the leading sponsor of 183 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 1: state terrorism in the world. You have to sort of 184 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: step past all of that and the various international reports 185 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: that they're cheating on trying to build a nuclear weapon 186 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 1: and somehow conclude, almost like a fantasy world, that somehow 187 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: there are reasonable people. I was with the Secretary of Defense, 188 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: Bob Gates at one point he said, these people keep 189 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 1: talking about moderate Iranians. Well, he was on the original 190 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:51,199 Speaker 1: trip with Zygnea and Bradzynski to meet with the Iranians 191 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: to try to work out an agreement. And we were 192 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:56,679 Speaker 1: prepared to give the money. We were prepared to give 193 00:11:56,720 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 1: them material to fix their various American manufactured military capabilities. 194 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: And we go through this list and the Raians go, 195 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 1: we want the Shaw. We need to have the Shaw 196 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 1: so we can have a show trial and killing. And 197 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: they go back through, we can't do that, but here's 198 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 1: all the things we can do, and they said, we 199 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: don't care about any of those. We want the Shaw 200 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: and Gas just said, when people tell me that there 201 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 1: are moderates in the Iranian government, I just think that 202 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 1: they're crazy. They have no idea who these people are. 203 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 1: They're theocratic fanatics. And the whole business about chanting death 204 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,319 Speaker 1: to America and death to Israel, I mean, that's not 205 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: just for show, that's what they want to do. And 206 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: they have hits out on various American senior officials from 207 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: the previous administration who are still under protective details. They 208 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:48,839 Speaker 1: threaten me personally in January with a video calling for 209 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: my assassination. This is very personal. And when they did 210 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 1: get the relief under the original Obama era nuclear deal 211 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: and hundreds of billions of dollars we're pouring into the 212 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: country because of the increased oil sales, you can look 213 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: at their expenditures. Did that spend that money on the 214 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: suffering Iranian people? Did they spend that money on infrastructure 215 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 1: or healthcare or any of the things you might expect 216 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 1: a normal government to spend it on. Now, basically dollar 217 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: for dollar, it went into their military. It went to 218 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: their terrorist proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, and the hootie. 219 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: It went into their own terrorist ipearatus, the IRGC, which 220 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: we very proudly designated as a foreign terrorist organization to 221 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: define the activities of the Iranian government not just a 222 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: sponsorship of terrorism, but as actually participant in terrorism. That's 223 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,199 Speaker 1: what they did with their money, because they want to 224 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: kill their enemies, and if you imagine that you can 225 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: somehow talk them out of that, you're just in for 226 00:13:48,840 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 1: a world of heart. When the Trump administration killed General Salomoni, 227 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: that was taken as a very direct personal assault on 228 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 1: the Iranian dictatorship. And they've been actively trying to get 229 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: even ever since. Well they have, but you noticed that 230 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,440 Speaker 1: during the last year, the Salimani hit was on the 231 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: third of January twenty twenty, because that was when I 232 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: was Deputy National Security Advisor for the Middle East, and 233 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 1: for the following year, the Iranians really didn't do that much. 234 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 1: Their regime is a bully, and if you push back 235 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: very strongly against a bully, and that was President Trump's 236 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: decision when he made the decision on Solimani, is that 237 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: they had pushed far enough and if we did not 238 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: push back strongly, we were going to have just these 239 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:53,239 Speaker 1: sort of endless provocations until we got to a potentially 240 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: escalatory point. But it worked for that year. But once 241 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: the Biden administration came in and you know, immediately took 242 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: the Hootie off the terrorist list. You started all certain 243 00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: outreach negotiations for the Frankenstein JCPO two point zero. Then 244 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: they started ratching up their terrorist activity. Even in Europe, 245 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: we've been uncovering a series of plots as well as activities. 246 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: In the United States, we have this deep conflict over 247 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: what the Iranian regime is like. You had the channel 248 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: of the Joint Chiefs saying that the Russians would be 249 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: in Keev in three days. You had the intelligence estimate 250 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: that the Taliban could not occupy Cobble very quickly. At 251 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: what point should we be deeply concerned that the intelligence 252 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 1: system is simply not working very well well. I think 253 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 1: we should have reached that point about two years ago, 254 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: that everything they did for these first two years of 255 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: the administration appears to be based on false assumptions, and 256 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: some of that might be problems with the intelligence community. 257 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 1: I think certainly reforms to the intelligence community are always 258 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: in order and looking at our priorities and if China 259 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: is our priority. Then we need to shift all sorts 260 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 1: of resources and assets to make sure we are doing everything. 261 00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: We need to provide our senior decision makers with the 262 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 1: best possible information. But at the same time, the intelligence 263 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: is a neutral It doesn't have a one way or 264 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 1: the other. It's information, it's what you do with it. 265 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: It's how people ingest it, and then how they process it. 266 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: And I fear the problem here is the administration is 267 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 1: getting a lot of information, but they're seeing what they 268 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: want to see. They're not looking at things that are 269 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 1: unpleasant or perhaps don't support their worldview. The main problem 270 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: that they are always going to have in dealing with 271 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: China is the fact that they need to get to 272 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: their prime directive, which is net zero carbon emissions. They 273 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 1: have to make some sort of deal with China, the 274 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: world's largest polluter, or else that's simply not possible. Now 275 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 1: you and I might agree that China is never going 276 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: to do that in good faith, but for the administration, 277 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 1: they are just held bent and determined to get to 278 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 1: some agreement like this. That was the purpose of Secretary 279 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 1: Blincoln's trip that got postponed by the spy balloon episode. 280 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 1: But it seems to me They're just living in an 281 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 1: alternate reality driven by priorities that are not the priorities 282 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 1: of most Americans to go back to Russia for just 283 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 1: a winner. When Putin announced that he was withdrawing from 284 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,959 Speaker 1: the New Start treaty, which was the last of the 285 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 1: arms control agreements, other than being just sort of a 286 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 1: signal of toughness, I mean, do you think it has 287 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: any real meaning? Well, you know, I think it does 288 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 1: signal toughness. I mean this was bad from a couple 289 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: of different angles. President Biden and I believe February of 290 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,439 Speaker 1: twenty twenty so shortly after they came into office, offered 291 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 1: Russia a unilateral five year extension of New Start. He 292 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 1: didn't have to do that. We knew the Russians were cheating. 293 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,680 Speaker 1: President Trump was looking very carefully after we got out 294 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 1: of the inf to get out of New Start because 295 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: the fundamental problem is A, the Russians are cheating. B 296 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 1: It doesn't find the Chinese in any way. So you 297 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 1: have the United States unilaterally restricting our defenses. I guess 298 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: for the good of humanity. You have a fundamentally bad 299 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: treaty that Biden wanted to stay in. I guess because 300 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 1: they just like these international agreements. So Biden looks like 301 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 1: he's pleading with Putin. Putin is the one who's saying, no, 302 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: you know, I won't have any of this. I mean, 303 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 1: I would say good riddance to bad rubbish. This is 304 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: an excellent opportunity for the United States to revisit our 305 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: nuclear posture, freed from what I've always thought was a 306 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: horrible treaty, and figure out how we are going to 307 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 1: now rebuild our nuclear arsenal to confront both Russia and China, 308 00:18:55,840 --> 00:19:00,160 Speaker 1: because obviously, originally when we developed these assets, they were 309 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: really just aimed at the Soviet Union. Now we have 310 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: another significant foe in this theater. To what degree do 311 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:11,400 Speaker 1: you also have concern about North Korea, Pakistan other countries 312 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: that now have acquired nuclear weapons. This is an enormous concern. 313 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:17,959 Speaker 1: And I think when we're looking at the bucket with 314 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: North Korean Pakistan, we have to assume Iran is either 315 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: in that bucket already or is about to become in 316 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 1: that bucket, because I'm sure Russia and China are thinking, Wow, 317 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: if we help out the Iranians in their pursuit of 318 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:32,959 Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon, that's really going to tie the United 319 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:37,479 Speaker 1: States and knots. And as you look at particularly North Korea, 320 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 1: which is in many ways a proxy state for China. 321 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: China uses the North Koreans all the time to do 322 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,439 Speaker 1: their dirty work. And the fact of the matter is 323 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,320 Speaker 1: North Korea cannot exist without China. It is their only 324 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: access to banking, their access to trade. So the notion 325 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 1: that the North Koreans are somehow independent actors from Beijing 326 00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: is pedaled by Beijing so they don't get blamed for 327 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 1: North Korea's bad behavior. So the proliferation of nuclear weapons 328 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,159 Speaker 1: to states like North Korean Pakistan is so deeply dangerous. 329 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 1: And for those of us who are old enough to 330 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: remember who Aq Khan is that proliferation out of Pakistan, 331 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: I still don't think we fully understand where all that 332 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: information and material went, and so we still may have 333 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: nasty surprises waiting for us. And the fact of the 334 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: matter is is we did not predict the North Korean 335 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: nuclear test. We did not predict the Pakistan and the 336 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 1: Indian tests. We have to be prepared for any number 337 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 1: of rogue states who may or may not have been 338 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: pursuing this capability to just spring a test on us 339 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: one day to give US trouble. It seems to me, 340 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: at least that it's a dramatically more complicated a national 341 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 1: security challenge in the Cold War because there you have 342 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 1: basically a binary between the United States and Civil Union. 343 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 1: Now you have multiple actors, some of whom may be 344 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: very unstable. Absolutely, and to get back to the Russia 345 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: China access for a moment, if GI goes to Moscow, 346 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: which is what Putin has said, it is going to 347 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: happen in the spring. One of the other misassumptions that 348 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: the administration has been laboring under is that they can 349 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:23,119 Speaker 1: somehow make a deal with China on Ukraine, that China 350 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: might act to restrict Russian aggression or Russian use of 351 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons. It's been my belief that the only way 352 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 1: that China would put any breaks on Russia as if 353 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 1: they thought they were going to get cut off from 354 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,959 Speaker 1: the dollar or from something significant in the West, so 355 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: it would cost them more than they would gain. But 356 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,639 Speaker 1: now they're pretty confident that's not going to happen. So 357 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 1: they are not going to be no matter how much 358 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 1: Tom Friedman thinks that they might, they are not going 359 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: to be a good partner on Ukraine. And I think 360 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 1: the only message we should be sending them on that 361 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,719 Speaker 1: is that we consider them complicit in anything that Russia 362 00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: made do, because they are emerging as this kind of 363 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,640 Speaker 1: double headed monster, which, as you say, creates a much 364 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 1: more complicated scenario than the Cold War, and that was 365 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: a whole lot of fun. Yeah, they have clearly been 366 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 1: moving towards all I think, a genuine alliance. I mean, 367 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 1: you see it almost month by month developing where the Chinese, 368 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,440 Speaker 1: the Iranians, and the Russians basically take on the Western 369 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 1: liberal democracies in what is in many ways a war 370 00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,639 Speaker 1: of attrition. It is, and you know, I guess the 371 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 1: good news for US is I am of the opinion 372 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,879 Speaker 1: that neither the Russians nor the Chinese have true allies 373 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,400 Speaker 1: the way we do. They have vassals, they have dependence, 374 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: they have arrangements of convenience, but they don't have strong 375 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: positive ideological connections with other nations the way the United 376 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 1: States does. I mean, they don't have a United Kingdom 377 00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 1: in Israel, a Canada, the list goes on. And the 378 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 1: great hopeful thing is we're looking at a country like Japan, 379 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 1: one of our great allies in the Pacific, looking at 380 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 1: significant rebuilding of their military. Seventy five years ago, they 381 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: were a deadly enemy that we had bombed with atomic weapons. 382 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,640 Speaker 1: Here we are, seventy five years later, through the perseverance 383 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: of both the Japanese and American people, we've established this 384 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: tremendous relationship with great mutual benefit. And so, you know, 385 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: I think it was Churchill said something the effect of 386 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,640 Speaker 1: the only thing worse than having allies is not having them. 387 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: There are always challenges in these relationships, but I think 388 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 1: that is the great strength of ours as this new 389 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 1: sort of board comes into view and we see what's 390 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: going on with the Russians, Chinese and Iranians, that as 391 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 1: powerful as those relationships might be, we have a much 392 00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: stronger power base if we are confident and show strong 393 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 1: leadership and bring those allies along with us. There are 394 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: some reports that Israel has identified three thousand target points 395 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:12,160 Speaker 1: in Iran and that it is conceivable that they will 396 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 1: preemptively take out the Iranians because they are so determined 397 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: not to allow them to have nuclear weapons. Because of 398 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: the extraordinary vulnerability of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and the 399 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: concentrated population in Israel, it would be the equivalent of 400 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 1: a second Holocaust. Do you think that's plausible that they 401 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: would actually attempt something on that scale. Well, it's certainly possible. 402 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: And one of the great investments of the US taxpayer, 403 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,880 Speaker 1: particularly over the last twenty years, has been in support 404 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: for Israel's defenses. And so they have really extraordinary capabilities 405 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 1: up to and including the Israeli version of the F 406 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 1: thirty five. And then the other thing they have now 407 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:58,120 Speaker 1: that they didn't have five years ago is coordination with 408 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 1: Gulf countries like open with Bahrain and UAE in particular 409 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: to support them in the event that such an action 410 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,640 Speaker 1: would be necessary. But even the tacit approval of Saudi Arabia, 411 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 1: which again not to date myself, but to go back, 412 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 1: I mean to think that you would have overflight of 413 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia by Israel as an extraordinary development, and then 414 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 1: even the thoughts that there might be some kind of 415 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 1: official rap prochement between those governments is the tremendous change, 416 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,199 Speaker 1: and I think that's something the Iranians look at with 417 00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: grave concern. But in terms of their capabilities, what concerns 418 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 1: me is they are going to need significant support from 419 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,720 Speaker 1: the United States to carry out an operation of this 420 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: scale and I worry, you know. I remember when John 421 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 1: Kerry during one of the Gaza uprisings, paused transfers of 422 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 1: missiles to Israel because they wanted to review them. I mean, 423 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: that's not what you do to an ally that's in 424 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 1: the middle of a shooting war with a terrorist enemy. 425 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:00,880 Speaker 1: You send them what they need, and if you want 426 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 1: to go back and review, you do that after the 427 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: shooting's done. And so I worry this administration would be 428 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 1: slow walking support for Israel the way they're slow walking 429 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: support for Ukraine because they don't want to get in 430 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: the middle of this. And if the Israelis get to 431 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,160 Speaker 1: the point where they feel they have to take action, 432 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: you want America in there with them. You mentioned support 433 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:42,640 Speaker 1: for Ukraine. We've provided over one hundred billion dollars so 434 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: far in both military and non military aid. I have 435 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 1: sort of two sets of questions. One, do you think 436 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 1: overall this has been used pretty effectively and with a 437 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,680 Speaker 1: minimum amount of corruption given the record that Ukraine used 438 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,240 Speaker 1: to have as a very corrupt culture. You know, I do. 439 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: At the Heritage Foundation, we host a large number of 440 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,440 Speaker 1: Ukrainian both civil society groups and government officials to keep 441 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 1: our lines of dialogue constantly open, and the Ukrainians have 442 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: been very open about what they're trying to do in 443 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: terms of anti corruption issues. They know that one of 444 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 1: two very bad things they could be doing with these 445 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 1: eight dollars is a letting them be siphoned off to 446 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 1: corrupt officials or be somehow being stockpiled to do contracts 447 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,919 Speaker 1: with Chinese state owned entities, which is another problem we 448 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,400 Speaker 1: can get to later. So I think the corruption issue 449 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: is being attended to. I'm sure there's some to some degree, 450 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,000 Speaker 1: and that's one of the messages I've tried to send 451 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians, which is, don't try to lobby or get 452 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,880 Speaker 1: around the Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives. Embrace 453 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 1: these people. Tell Marjorie Taylor Green, please pass your audit, 454 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 1: help us show you what we are doing in this department, 455 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:02,119 Speaker 1: that we are trying to use this aid in the 456 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,679 Speaker 1: manner that it was intended, but then also build a 457 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:09,080 Speaker 1: new economy that will be free of this endemic bedevloing 458 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 1: corruption that we have had. Unfortunately, I don't think the 459 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 1: aid packages that have been passed so far have been 460 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: as targeted on lethal military aid as we would recommend. 461 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 1: The President's announcement last week that we were going to 462 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 1: be building hospitals and most extraordinarily putting something in Ukrainian's pockets. 463 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,160 Speaker 1: I mean, that's not the job of the US taxpayer. 464 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 1: If that aid is going to be given, it can 465 00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 1: be given through Brussels. That should be a European burden. 466 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,760 Speaker 1: But I don't think we should be building a welfare 467 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 1: state in Ukraine right now. I really think Congress is 468 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 1: well within its per view to start questioning these requests 469 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 1: for aid. And nothing the President said in Warsaw gives 470 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,360 Speaker 1: me any confidence that he's going to come to Congress 471 00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 1: with something that would be palatable to the folks that 472 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 1: are concerned about the scale and the duration of this commitment. 473 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 1: You just did an op ed called the Russia Ukraine 474 00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 1: War of one year. The Biden administration ows the one 475 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 1: eighteen Congress more answers, and you have a whole set 476 00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:18,360 Speaker 1: of questions. You basically are saying that they don't have 477 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 1: a clear strategy, or at least they haven't communicated. They 478 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 1: don't have a clear sense of the funding request over 479 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 1: the next year. He has not really looked at the 480 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 1: depth of change we need in our intelligence after the 481 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 1: failures at the beginning of the war, and he doesn't 482 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,760 Speaker 1: really have a clear statement of what do we want 483 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 1: the outcome to be. I mean, just giving the Ukrainians 484 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 1: enough equipment to keep killing Russians without winning the war. 485 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:48,240 Speaker 1: It seems to me it's a very immoral position because 486 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 1: it's put in the Ukrainians in a position of dying 487 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 1: without having adequate resources to win. I mean, having them 488 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 1: fight the Russians to a draw is going to cause 489 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 1: so many Ukrainian lives that will be a catastrophe for 490 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,920 Speaker 1: the country. It really will. And that's what's sort of 491 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 1: maddening about all of this is why weren't we doing 492 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 1: the sorts of things they're talking about really over the 493 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,720 Speaker 1: last three months, which would be the Patriots, the Abrahams, 494 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,959 Speaker 1: and now we have the big debate over fighter jets. 495 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,840 Speaker 1: Why weren't we doing that in July if we wanted 496 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 1: to save Ukrainian lives and bring this to an end. 497 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: But I agree with you, I don't understand the moral 498 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 1: justification for continuing the slaughter if we are not willing 499 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 1: to do what is necessary and that we are eminently 500 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 1: capable of doing. Now. The sort of weakness of Putin's 501 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 1: vaunted war machine has been revealed. If we're not willing 502 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 1: to do what is necessary to win, what are we 503 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 1: gaining beyond more carnage by staying at the current levels 504 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 1: of support. And one other thing that I'd like to 505 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:56,480 Speaker 1: point out is the just I think shameful politicization of 506 00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: this issue by the President, the exploitation of Zelinski when 507 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 1: he was basically with a gundo's head, brought over to 508 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: address the Congress in the very last days of one 509 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,720 Speaker 1: hundred and seventeenth. You know, imagine how much more powerful 510 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,760 Speaker 1: that would have been if he would have waited into 511 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks and come and been in 512 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,719 Speaker 1: front of a speaker McCarthy and a Vice President Harris 513 00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,920 Speaker 1: and talked to all Americans. But what was the priority 514 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 1: for the president was jamming that one point seven trillion 515 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 1: dollars OMNI through only forty six billion of which I mean, 516 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 1: let that sink in, only forty six billion of which 517 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,200 Speaker 1: was for Ukraine. But they rapped it in the Ukrainian 518 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 1: flag and said you were a putin sympathizer if you 519 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,120 Speaker 1: didn't vote for it. And I think that is what 520 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,960 Speaker 1: is also giving conservatives a lot of pause, is that 521 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 1: Ukraine is being used as a wedge and enabler for 522 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 1: the just rampant, disgraceful, wasteful, discretionary domestic spending of this administration. 523 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 1: Biden seems to politicize virtually everything he talks about. I 524 00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 1: want to really wrap up with another article you wrote 525 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: in this case with Congressman Hip Roy in the Law 526 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:06,120 Speaker 1: Street Journal. He said it's entitled a healthy budget makes 527 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 1: for a strong military. Can you explain that Chip is 528 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,880 Speaker 1: a dear friend of some decades and we've been talking 529 00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:18,040 Speaker 1: about these issues for many years, and how we sort 530 00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 1: of square fiscal conservatism with a strong United States national defense, 531 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:27,920 Speaker 1: and the administration and many Republicans will give you a 532 00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:32,719 Speaker 1: binary choice that if we want cuts to discretionary domestic spending, 533 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,280 Speaker 1: then we have to do dollar for dollar cuts to defense, 534 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 1: and that has to be rejected out of hand. I mean, 535 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 1: universal healthcare and whatnot is not mandated by the Constitution. 536 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:47,400 Speaker 1: Providing for the common defense is, and so this should 537 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 1: not be some kind of bargaining Chip, and we can 538 00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 1: discuss what are appropriate defense levels, what we need. We 539 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 1: need to not be spending a lot of things on 540 00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,640 Speaker 1: algae fuel for the Navy or some of their other projects. 541 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 1: We have to look very carefully, as we were just 542 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 1: discussing at the nuclear future of the United States, what 543 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 1: that posture looks like. We have to look at our navy. 544 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 1: We have many things that demand our attention, but what 545 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 1: we can't do is drag the country into a debt 546 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 1: to GDP ratio that prevents us from doing what we 547 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 1: need to do militarily in the event that we are 548 00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:28,719 Speaker 1: confronting China. And that's where these reports about Ukraine are 549 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 1: so scary. That was something that maybe seemed like it 550 00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 1: was some years down the road. Well maybe it isn't. 551 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 1: Maybe China is moving into Ukraine in a way that 552 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,960 Speaker 1: will demand some sort of American response. And if we 553 00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:45,240 Speaker 1: don't use the current debt sailing debate to try to 554 00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:49,200 Speaker 1: start turning this ship so that we begin the process 555 00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 1: of getting to a balanced budget. I'm not under any illusions. 556 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 1: I know we're hoping for a ten year timeline. It 557 00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 1: may well take longer than that. But if we don't 558 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 1: start now, we will not have of the economic haft, 559 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,640 Speaker 1: which in many ways is our greatest weapon to do 560 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,840 Speaker 1: what we're going to need to do to build up 561 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,040 Speaker 1: the way we did for say World War two. It 562 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 1: seems to me that there's an opportunity here to modernize 563 00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:17,880 Speaker 1: national security, eliminate a great deal of the red tape 564 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 1: and the bureaucracy, and actually end up with a more 565 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:25,799 Speaker 1: dynamic and more aggressive and more capable defense than just 566 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 1: pouring money into the current bureaucracy without change that. In fact, 567 00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 1: it is the very nature of the current defense bureaucracy 568 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 1: plus the woke policies being imposed on it. The two combine, 569 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:41,600 Speaker 1: I think to really dramatically weaken our capacity to accelerate 570 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:44,200 Speaker 1: past the Chinese. But I'd be curse yet your reactually 571 00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,399 Speaker 1: idea that if we modernize the military, that we really 572 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,440 Speaker 1: have to, because the current bureaucracy just is not going 573 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,960 Speaker 1: to be capable of modernizing at the rate of the Chinese. 574 00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 1: One of the things that's been sort of grabbing at 575 00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,799 Speaker 1: my attention in recent years is the expansion of the 576 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,680 Speaker 1: national security portfolio, and it's one reason I've now declared 577 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,240 Speaker 1: a ban on the words foreign policy, although they're actually 578 00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:08,920 Speaker 1: in my title, so I'm not maybe not being terribly successful, 579 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,160 Speaker 1: but I think we need to talk about national security 580 00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 1: and it will have the traditional elements of our military, 581 00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:19,080 Speaker 1: but it's also going to have things like energy and 582 00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:23,319 Speaker 1: immigration and now federal budget issues that we have to 583 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:27,759 Speaker 1: consider in this context. So a twenty first century approach 584 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:32,040 Speaker 1: would have to take all of that into consideration and 585 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:36,359 Speaker 1: make the United States far more nimble and creative in 586 00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,200 Speaker 1: the way that we approach our defenses. We are in 587 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:43,319 Speaker 1: many ways still mired in many Cold War postures, and 588 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:46,520 Speaker 1: so we have this new Congress and in the hopes 589 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:50,000 Speaker 1: of additional gains in the Senate coming up in the 590 00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,399 Speaker 1: next cycle. I think all the work that we can 591 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:56,319 Speaker 1: do now to lay that legislative foundation, what would that 592 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,440 Speaker 1: look like? How would you pull the separate vehicles. I mean, 593 00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 1: this is when those of us who have participated in 594 00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 1: the Congressional Congress can geek out to our delight. But 595 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,000 Speaker 1: I mean there are various ways you could approach this, 596 00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,920 Speaker 1: but getting the serious people on national defense, and I 597 00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,680 Speaker 1: would say we need a range of views from Chips 598 00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:19,120 Speaker 1: views to Representative Gallagher's views, Senator Cruz's views, to Senator 599 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 1: Cotton's views. These are all patriots who largely agree on 600 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,680 Speaker 1: these issues but bring different perspectives. And getting all of 601 00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 1: those views together and figuring out how we're going to 602 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:35,360 Speaker 1: tackle this next generation of modernization is a huge task 603 00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,400 Speaker 1: for the next eighteen months and then for whoever is 604 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,319 Speaker 1: in the next Congress and the next administration. I think 605 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 1: we're in deep agreement that listen. I want to thank 606 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,800 Speaker 1: you for joining me, and I really appreciate your insights, 607 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,839 Speaker 1: your whole approach were you've both been in the middle 608 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,239 Speaker 1: of the fight, You've studied the fight. What you're doing 609 00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,279 Speaker 1: at Heritage is really really important. I agree with you, 610 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 1: this is a war we have to win. I think 611 00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 1: if Putin were to win, the world would become enormous 612 00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:03,759 Speaker 1: more dangerous, almost overnight. And we have to recognize that 613 00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:07,239 Speaker 1: it's a war that has multiple opponents, from Russia to 614 00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,480 Speaker 1: China to Iran, and that we're going to have to 615 00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:14,240 Speaker 1: design a strategy of victory that takes that into account. 616 00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 1: But I also really appreciate your support for Ukraine's fight 617 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,400 Speaker 1: for democracy and for freedom. Absolutely well. Thank you for 618 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,600 Speaker 1: having me on. It's a privilege to be able to 619 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,000 Speaker 1: exchange views with you, and I hope you all enjoy 620 00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:31,680 Speaker 1: the war and weather. Thank you to my guest, Victoria Coats. 621 00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 1: You can get a link to our Wall Street Journal 622 00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:37,799 Speaker 1: op ed on our show page at Newtsworld dot com 623 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,680 Speaker 1: News World is produced by Gingwish Street sixty and iHeartMedia. 624 00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:46,919 Speaker 1: Our executive producer is Garnsey Sloan, our producer is Rebecca Howe, 625 00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:51,080 Speaker 1: and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the 626 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,759 Speaker 1: show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the 627 00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 1: team at Gingwish Street sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, 628 00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,759 Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Applepiecast and both rate us 629 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:05,280 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 630 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 631 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,440 Speaker 1: Neutral can sign up from my three free weekly columns 632 00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:17,200 Speaker 1: at gingwistreet sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm newt Gingrich. 633 00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:18,320 Speaker 1: This is Neutral.