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Speaker 1: There are questions about how much a second term of

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Speaker 1: a Donald Trump presidency, second term would be about retribution

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Speaker 1: and looking backwards and grievances, and how much would be

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Speaker 1: looking forward.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to have time for retribution.

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Speaker 1: We're going to make this country so successful again.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to have time for retribution.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump town hall meeting yesterday. I selected that clip

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Speaker 3: to lead into a discussion with Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group,

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Speaker 3: intentionally for reasons that we will explain in a moment.

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Speaker 3: Every year, when the top Risks of the year come out,

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Speaker 3: I feel like I felt as a little kid after

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Speaker 3: ordering something from a serial box that was going to

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Speaker 3: take six to eight weeks for delivery, and twelve weeks later,

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Speaker 3: when I'd completely forgotten i ordered it. I was thrilled

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Speaker 3: to see it there in the mailbox. I always love

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Speaker 3: reading and digesting the top risks of the year. And

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Speaker 3: Ian Bremmer, President, founder of the Eurasia Group, joins us Ian, how.

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Speaker 2: Are you, sir, Hey, I'm great. Happy to you, my friend,

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Speaker 2: Thank you right back at you.

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Speaker 3: So the top risks are interesting, as they always are,

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Speaker 3: but what really caught my first was what you call

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Speaker 3: the red herrings things we probably don't have to worry

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Speaker 3: about so much, in particular the US China crisis.

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Speaker 2: Wait a minute, we're fixated on that, should we not be? Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it was probably the biggest silver lining in the report.

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Speaker 4: And you know, in part the Americans and the Biden

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Speaker 4: administration having its hands so full with Russia, Ukraine and

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Speaker 4: with the Middle East and with the elections, they really

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Speaker 4: don't want a crisis with the Chinese. And they're trying

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Speaker 4: to build out regular military to military, high level of

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Speaker 4: engagement and on the diplomatic side and on the economic side,

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Speaker 4: not because they're going to suddenly we're going to start

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Speaker 4: trusting each other, but rather when there are.

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Speaker 2: Conflicts like over Taiwana the South China, see.

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Speaker 4: That we can respond and contain in The Chinese don't

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Speaker 4: have elections to worry about, but they have a seriously

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Speaker 4: underperforming economy and they don't want anything to make that

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Speaker 4: even worse. So for both reasons, at least through the

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Speaker 4: US elections, I think that this is going to be

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Speaker 4: a better managed, difficult relationship than we've seen over the

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Speaker 4: last few years.

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Speaker 3: So you want us to turn our watchful eye away

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Speaker 3: from China, I have to ask are you now or

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Speaker 3: have you ever been a member of the Chinese Communist Party.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a little question.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, there's been a long standing card

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Speaker 4: carrying member of the Chinese Communist Party. I did get

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Speaker 4: to China finally after having not been there through the

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Speaker 4: pandemic a few weeks ago, and definitely that the meetings

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Speaker 4: I had made me feel only more strongly that while

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Speaker 4: they're deeply unhappy about a whole bunch of things that

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Speaker 4: they're facing from the Americans right now, that this is

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Speaker 4: not the time. So it's not like they're suddenly becoming

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Speaker 4: our friends, but there is a recognition they need to

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Speaker 4: bide their time, and I think that, frankly, in this environment,

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Speaker 4: will take it.

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Speaker 3: So as long as we're talking about China, risk number

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Speaker 3: six is no China recovery. How strong are their economic headwinds,

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Speaker 3: How much trouble are they in.

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Speaker 2: They're in a lot of trouble Economically.

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Speaker 4: For fifty years, they were the factory of the world,

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Speaker 4: and that was really really inexpensive labor that everyone wanted

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Speaker 4: to go and get their production from.

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Speaker 2: Well, their labor's gotten a lot more expensive.

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Speaker 4: There are political demands to start building stuff in other

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Speaker 4: places like hey here in the United States and in Mexico,

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Speaker 4: and friendshoring with our buddies, semiconductors, critical minerals, all of

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Speaker 4: this kind of stuff. So the broad model is turning

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Speaker 4: against them. At the same time as three years of

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Speaker 4: zero COVID, they turned around and said, Okay, now everyone

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Speaker 4: can get COVID, let's open the economy.

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Speaker 2: But the consumers aren't spending.

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Speaker 4: They're saving because they don't feel like they can trust

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Speaker 4: a robust Chinese economy. Youth unemployment's very high. They've got

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Speaker 4: a really ailing real estate sector that they've produced into

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Speaker 4: a bubble, but a lot of it is unproductive assets.

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Speaker 4: And they've got a lot of local and corporate debt

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Speaker 4: that is bad and that is being propped up by

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Speaker 4: the Chinese banking system. That's a closed economy, but no

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Speaker 4: one can pay it off. So you put it all together,

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Speaker 4: I mean, this isn't like China is going to start contracting,

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Speaker 4: but I mean two three percent growth this year next

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Speaker 4: year feels like feels robust.

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Speaker 2: In this environment.

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Speaker 4: So if you look back on two thousand and eight

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Speaker 4: with the financial crisis and everyone's worried, it was the

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Speaker 4: Chinese that put you know, sort of hundreds of billions

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Speaker 4: of dollars into you know, stimulating the economy, shovel ready

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Speaker 4: products and the help the world grow again.

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Speaker 2: That is not happening in twenty twenty four. Interesting.

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Speaker 3: I'd love to talk about that all day, especially since

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Speaker 3: the Chinese Communist Party depends on economic growth and prosperity

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Speaker 3: as they're for their legitimacy. But let's do a little

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Speaker 3: bingo bangabongo on the top five and okay, I've summoned

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Speaker 3: up the kurage.

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Speaker 2: Let's dive in number one.

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Speaker 3: The United States versus itself is the top risk of

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Speaker 3: the year.

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Speaker 2: Tell what you said in.

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Speaker 4: The opening that Trump Trump won't have time for retribution.

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Speaker 4: But I mean Trump said he can end the Ukraine

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Speaker 4: War in a day. He said he only needs to

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Speaker 4: be dictator for a day. So I mean, with that

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Speaker 4: kind of time management, how could he not find time

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Speaker 4: for Regald.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 3: I think that was what comes out of the north

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Speaker 3: end of a south going bowl, clearly. But so this

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Speaker 3: election season you expect to be ugly beyond ugly.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the US economy is doing fine and

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Speaker 4: the US military is world class, but our political system

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Speaker 4: is in crisis and for the people that ask me, well,

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Speaker 4: why are we so worried in twenty twenty four, I

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Speaker 4: mean he was president in twenty sixteen, it was fine.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: You know, if you're flying a plane at forty thousand

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Speaker 4: feet and it is sunny skies and you hand the

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Speaker 4: controls over for half an hour to someone that does

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Speaker 4: know how to fly a plane, you'll probably be okay.

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Speaker 4: If you are trying to land that plane in a

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Speaker 4: hurricane and you can't see the runway, handing the controls

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Speaker 4: over to someone that you can't trust, that doesn't know

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Speaker 4: how to fly a plane real well may well crash

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Speaker 4: the plane. And that is exactly what we're looking at

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Speaker 4: from this twenty twenty four election. It is a very

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Speaker 4: dangerous environment and there is and you have Biden versus Trump,

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Speaker 4: who's the stakes of this election for each of them

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Speaker 4: is so much higher. Trump probably goes to jail if

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Speaker 4: he loses. Biden and many of his advisors think that

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Speaker 4: a politicized IRS, FBI doj under Trump means they'll be investigated,

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Speaker 4: they may face arrest themselves. So the need to ensure

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Speaker 4: that you win and to use every method possible, including

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Speaker 4: extra legal, is extremely motivating. This time around, at a

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Speaker 4: time that a majority of the American people don't trust

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Speaker 4: their institutions anymore, don't believe in the legitimacy of this

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Speaker 4: transfer of power.

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Speaker 2: And that's unique.

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Speaker 4: The US has that problem in a way that Japan, Canada,

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Speaker 4: Germany do not. So our allies around the world and

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Speaker 4: the leaders that I speak to, they are very deeply

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Speaker 4: concerned about this well.

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Speaker 3: And at the same time, you have, for the first

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Speaker 3: time ever a leading presidential candidate under ninety one felony indictments,

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Speaker 3: a number of which are patently ridiculous, some of which

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Speaker 3: arguably are not. But you show a number of or

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Speaker 3: you have a number of charts in this section that

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Speaker 3: show the shocking decline in America's contradence and everything from

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Speaker 3: the Supreme Court to Congress, of the Presidency, to organized religion,

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Speaker 3: to schools, to newspapers to news on the internet.

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Speaker 2: It's just crazy. It's a cynical, cynical time.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And if you had to point to one reason,

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Speaker 4: we know the inequality and we know the identity politics.

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Speaker 4: But if you had to point to one, I would

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Speaker 4: say that over the last thirty years, all of the

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Speaker 4: institutions that help us raise our kids and create civic

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Speaker 4: minded citizens. The nurture of the American environment have really eroded.

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Speaker 4: The church and its membership has really eroded. The family

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Speaker 4: has really eroded. The school, the public school systems have eroded,

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Speaker 4: the Little League. I mean all this stuff, and it

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Speaker 4: had for a while, it wasn't replaced, but now it

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Speaker 4: has been, and it's been replaced by algorithm. It's been

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Speaker 4: replaced by social media and by artificial intelligence that is

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Speaker 4: determining who we connect with the information would digest, but

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Speaker 4: not to make us civic minded, instead to addict us

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Speaker 4: and make us better consumers, and that is destroying American democracy.

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Speaker 2: Wow.

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Speaker 3: That's another huge topic, but pressed for time, let's move on.

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Speaker 3: How worried about the Middle East? Are you that the

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Speaker 3: conflict between Israel and the various arrayed forces explode into

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Speaker 3: a regional conflict.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that we're on track for the US

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Speaker 4: versus Iran at war, which is good because that would

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Speaker 4: be one hundred and fifty two hundred dollars oil in

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Speaker 4: a global recession. But I think the war is going

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Speaker 4: to escalate, it's going to expand. Very hard to see

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Speaker 4: how you maintain the war to the territory largely of

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Speaker 4: Gaza and Hamas, given the threat that the Israeli War Cabinet,

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Speaker 4: the whole war cabinet feels that Hesbelah reflects in the North,

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Speaker 4: and the need to degrade them, the perceived need.

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Speaker 2: To push them back from the border.

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Speaker 4: Also, despite America's efforts with allies to deter the Huthis

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Speaker 4: from Yemen from attacking shipping through the Red Sea, that's

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Speaker 4: not working, and so the likelihood that we have to

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Speaker 4: attack them in Yemen in their bases, expanding the war,

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Speaker 4: not to mention Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, and

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Speaker 4: of course the millions and millions of Muslims in the

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Speaker 4: region and in the US and Europe that are becoming

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Speaker 4: more radicalized on the back of all of this, some

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Speaker 4: of whom will turn to violence. It is you look

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Speaker 4: at all of that together and you say, how do

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Speaker 4: we keep this contained to Gaza?

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Speaker 2: It's very very unlikely. Yikes.

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Speaker 3: All right, Moving on again, far prematurely of the partition

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Speaker 3: to Ukraine. How could anything change in Ukraine at this

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Speaker 3: point and what does it mean if it doesn't.

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Speaker 4: The most likely way it changes is the Ukrainians lose support,

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Speaker 4: they get desperate and the Russians are able to take

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Speaker 4: more land, the status quo may also hold. The least

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Speaker 4: likely thing is that the Ukrainians are able to take

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Speaker 4: their land back. So I want them to take their

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Speaker 4: land back. I'm not happy about a partition in Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: Then again, I'm not happy about the Taliban running Afghanistan

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Speaker 4: or North Korean having nuclear weapons, and those things are

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Speaker 4: true too, So I mean, yeah, Ukraine is going to

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Speaker 4: get split in two, and the question is where and how,

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Speaker 4: And no one in Ukraine's going to accept that outcome,

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Speaker 4: and the Europeans are mostly not going to accept that,

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Speaker 4: and a lot of people in the US aren't.

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Speaker 2: But it's becoming divided.

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Speaker 4: And you know, we had peak NATO last year, we

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Speaker 4: had peak Transatlantic relations last year.

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Speaker 2: It's going to get harder.

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Speaker 4: And that will become even more true when Trump gets

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Speaker 4: the nomination in the United States, because he of course

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Speaker 4: sees Zelenski as a political enemy who refused to do

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Speaker 4: his bidding when he demanded that he opened investigations in

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Speaker 4: Di Biden the Sun Hunter. So if he becomes president,

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Speaker 4: he's going to say, you have to accept a deal

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Speaker 4: with the Russians. That will be on its face unacceptable

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Speaker 4: to the Ukrainians and if not, you're losing all your support.

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Speaker 4: And that is going to divide NATO in two the polls,

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Speaker 4: the Finns, the Swedes, the Baults on one side, but

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Speaker 4: the Italians and the Hungarians and others joining with Trump

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Speaker 4: and saying, hey, yeah, let's work with the Russians again.

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Speaker 4: That is a very serious problem for the EU and

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Speaker 4: for NATO.

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Speaker 3: Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group online, talking about the

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Speaker 3: top risks of twenty twenty four one, more has there

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Speaker 3: ever been a wild guess ethon more wild than trying

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Speaker 3: to figure out what is AI? What's it going to become,

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Speaker 3: and what it's going to mean to mankind? That's one

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Speaker 3: of your your top risks.

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Speaker 4: I'm very excited about what AI is going to mean

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Speaker 4: to mankind.

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Speaker 2: Economically.

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Speaker 4: I think it's incredible, the ability to unlock human capital,

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Speaker 4: to reduce waste in processes and to improve efficiency in

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Speaker 4: every sector, which means, you know, unlike climate change, where

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Speaker 4: you move to transition energy and you royally piss off

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Speaker 4: a whole bunch of people that are committed to fossil

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Speaker 4: fuels and are making their money that way. With AI,

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Speaker 4: you know, people that are in existing powerful companies all

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Speaker 4: want to use it, and so you're going to see

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Speaker 4: roll out much much faster. That's the good side, and

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Speaker 4: I'm very enthusiastic about that.

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Speaker 2: The bad side is.

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Speaker 4: That the tech is moving a lot faster than the

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Speaker 4: ability to regulate it than the governance, and so that

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Speaker 4: means that you will have massive proliferation. GPT five, which

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Speaker 4: makes four look like a child's toy, will come out

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Speaker 4: this year, and it will be in the hands of

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Speaker 4: hundreds of millions of people, some of whom are bad actors.

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Speaker 4: Some of them will use it and will use knockoffs

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Speaker 4: that come out months later to to right now where

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Speaker 4: as code, and to engage in cyber attacks and to

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Speaker 4: program new weapons like leathal autonomous drones, and to promote disinformation.

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Speaker 4: And I think twenty twenty four is probably the first

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Speaker 4: year when those disruptions become risks that scare.

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Speaker 3: I realized this is a bit of a childlike summation,

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Speaker 3: But it seems like the good guys are going to

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Speaker 3: get much more efficient and the bad guys are going

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Speaker 3: to get much more efficient with AI, and everything's going

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Speaker 3: to move even faster than it does now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think there are a lot more good guys

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Speaker 4: than bad guys, and I think this is going to

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Speaker 4: reflect a new wave of globalization, which we desperately need

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Speaker 4: for a planet that is, you know, that is facing

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Speaker 4: challenges from politics and from climate and the rest. But

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Speaker 4: the question is how much damage can a relatively small

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Speaker 4: number of people do when they have really powerful weapons,

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Speaker 4: And I fear we're about to find out.

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Speaker 3: Ian Bremer of Eurasia Group, Ian It's Always Stimulating, will

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Speaker 3: have a link so that folks can download the entire

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Speaker 3: report for themselves.

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Speaker 2: Great to talk to you and have a great year.

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Speaker 2: So happy to stimulate you. Thank you. We'll talk again soon.

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Speaker 2: See ya, Comi Armstrong and Getty