WEBVTT - Can Technical Analysis Predict Market Sentiment? 0:00:04.600 --> 0:00:07.680 So the big question is this, how do investors like 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:11.800 us get access to the ideas, information, and most importantly, 0:00:12.039 --> 0:00:14.880 the right people that give us the tools and information 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:19.000 we need to make informed and educated decisions to have success. 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:22.360 That is the question, and this podcast will give us 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.480 the answers. This is Mark Moss, your host. Let's get 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:29.000 this started. Hello, and welcome to another episode of the 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:33.120 Market Disruptors podcast. Today I'm joined by Jacob Canfield, host 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:38.120 of the Crypto Traders podcast, and we get into cryptocurrency, 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:42.360 bitcoin and trading and investing. He is a well known trader, 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.400 number one ranked on Trading View, and we talk about 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:48.600 the difference of trading and investing. We talk about how 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:52.880 trading seems to line up with human sentiment of greed 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:57.520 and fear and how actually using technical analysis and fibinaci's 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:00.640 can predict where the markets are. Talk what the difference is. 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:03.720 We talked about how the average person should look at this, 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:06.000 especially if they want to try and time the markets 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:09.160 and do some technical analysis. Some really really good information 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:11.520 from one of the best traders out in the space today. 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:13.639 So let's go ahead, just jump right into it. Hey, everyone, 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.839 Welcome to another episode of the Market Disruptors podcast. Today, 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:20.280 I am joined by Jacob Canfield. He is from Signal Profits. 0:01:20.280 --> 0:01:24.760 He's also the host of the Crypto Traders podcast. Um 0:01:24.800 --> 0:01:26.520 he's someone that I've been following a long time. He's 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:29.720 a master of technical analysis and trading. And so, Jacob, 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:32.080 welcome to the show. Thanks for having me man, I 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:34.640 appreciate it been uh been a while. We've been talking 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:38.680 about doing a podcast together for about a year now. Yeah. Yeah, 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.120 I'm glad we're I'm surprised it's taking so long. I'm 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:43.840 glad we're finally doing that. Uh So, Jacob, So, I've 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:46.120 been working with you for a year and a half 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:48.040 and I know you really well. But for those that 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:49.680 don't know who you are, why don't you just give 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:52.080 us a little bit of background on how you got 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:54.440 to this space that you're working in, what you're working 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:58.360 on right now. Well, I've been doing technical analysis for 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:01.760 about a decade, aid a little bit longer, but but 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:05.000 full time professionally for about the last three to four years. 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:08.359 I started out in options back in college. I took 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:11.600 an options trading course. I've always had a really really 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:16.600 big heart and passion for fundamental analysis. I'm i myself am. 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:21.040 I am a technologist, a futurist. I really love emerging technologies. 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:24.320 I've always been on the cutting netge as far as adoption. UH. 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:27.000 So you know computers, uh, the iPhone. I was like 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:29.720 one of the first in line for an iPhone and uh. 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:33.480 And so my approach is really kind of just investing 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:37.560 in trading things that I have intimate knowledge about. UM. 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:39.840 I own a mobile application development company, so I know 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:44.480 the ins and outs of of mobile applications, Apple, um 0:02:44.840 --> 0:02:47.800 technology like that. But I also have a background in healthcare, 0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:50.320 so those have kind of been like my cross hybrid 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:53.799 of of my paths. I love e commerce, the healthcare 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:58.519 wellness industry, and then on the technology and the trading side. UM. 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:02.440 For me, it's all about quant afiable data, back testing strategies, 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:07.200 and uh. Trading just boils down to finding edges that 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:10.640 are greater than fifty and then employing those edges over 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:13.880 a long period of time, because if you have an 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.239 edge that works better than essentially you're gonna make money 0:03:17.240 --> 0:03:19.800 in the long run. It's just kind of probability and statistics. 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:21.840 And so that's kind of how I approached the market. 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.800 I find strong fundamental projects and then I like to 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:27.600 trade them um and try and outperform just a buy 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:29.920 and hold strategy. So that's kind of how I approach 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:34.120 pretty much all of my UM investing thesis or trading 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:37.120 the Yeah, that's good. UM, So it's you know, you 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:39.960 bring up the difference of investing and trading, and you 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:42.520 talked about how you like to have a fundamental knowledge 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:45.600 of it and then trade against it. UM. Maybe for 0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:47.920 a lot of people that aren't really sure what's what's 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:50.440 what do you think is the difference between trading and investing, 0:03:50.480 --> 0:03:53.040 because sometimes those lines get blurred. Yeah, I just I 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:56.040 just tweeted this today. I said, don't trade like an 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:59.680 investor and don't invest like a trader. Uh. There are 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:03.839 pretty big fundamental differences between the two, and I would 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:08.120 say the biggest one is time commitment being a trader. 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:11.440 And there's different variations in different degrees of trading, whether 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:14.640 I mean, and there's a thousand different methods and strategies 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:18.360 for trading, whether you're a short term, long term, scalping, 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:21.560 swing trading, there's all kinds of different approaches. I mean, 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:26.400 the approaches are infinitesimal or sorry, infinite based on all 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:28.760 the different angles you can take But the really big 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:31.920 difference is time commitment. Investing is kind of a one 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:35.400 time thing. You buy and then you hold for based 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.200 on your thesis if yours is correct. Like Warren Buffett, 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:40.880 he says, you know, I invested, I invest in all 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:43.760 of these companies because I believe in the American economy. 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:46.040 So you know, if you if you don't think the 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:48.520 stock market's gonna go up, your essentially don't think that 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:50.960 the American economy is going to go up. And so 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:52.920 that's his investing thesis and that's how it kind of 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:55.880 approaches it. But from a trader's standpoint, you don't really 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:59.920 care too much about the backstory, the investing all that stuff. 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:02.880 It's really just kind of a time frame preference. You know, 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:05.159 are you short term, mid term, long term? And once 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:07.720 you have that kind of thesis behind it, then all 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:09.719 else it kind of applies. But the other aspect of 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:12.600 trading that that I think is a really big fundamental 0:05:12.640 --> 0:05:16.760 difference is skill set. Uh, being a skillful trader and 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:20.200 being a profitable trader is incredibly difficult. There was a 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:22.600 study done on the i Q of traders and they 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:24.480 say that people that go into trading have some of 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:27.719 the highest i q's of the world. But there's a 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:31.720 rule that basically traders fail. And so when you have 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:34.159 a group of people that have already a really high 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:36.600 i Q and of those group of people, only ten 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:40.080 percent will actually succeed. Uh. It makes it a very 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:44.119 very competitive marketplace. It's very fierce, and so it's really 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:46.240 hard to make money as a trader, and so it 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:49.719 takes a long time to become good and profitable at trading. 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:52.880 And what I also see the difference between investing in 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:57.400 trading is that it most people they stop trying to 0:05:57.440 --> 0:06:00.440 trade after about a year. Most people lose all of 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:02.320 their money within a year, or a lot of majority 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:04.400 of their money after about a year, and then they 0:06:04.480 --> 0:06:06.839 just kind of switch over to investing because it's a 0:06:06.839 --> 0:06:09.240 lot easier, and it's you know, because trading does take 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:12.160 time to become good at it. But what we call that, 0:06:12.279 --> 0:06:14.200 you know, what we call the first year to three 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:17.440 years is tuition. Just like anything, it takes time to 0:06:17.480 --> 0:06:20.440 get good. And with trading, the first three years, all 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:22.720 the money that you give to the market, to all 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.520 the other people who have been their ten, fifteen, twenty years, Uh, 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:28.000 that's the tuition to really learn how to trade over 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:32.400 the long term. So time preference, skill set, um, and 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:35.360 just just I mean, I think those are the two 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:41.320 biggest differentiators between investing and trading. But with investing, if 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:44.880 you're investing in like a fundamental ideology, let's say Bitcoin, 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:48.720 then your time horizon is drastically different than a trade. 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:51.279 Your time arizing goes you know, then goes up to 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:55.120 maybe ten even fifty years, kind of like investing in 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:59.279 um Forward or Amazon or Apple. If you if you 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:01.680 believe that the tech chnology is here to stay for 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:05.960 you know, an indefinite period of time, then you're investing 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:08.479 these just still holds true, the fundamentals still hold true. 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:11.200 That's a valuable, valuable company kind of no matter which 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:13.240 way the market moves, no matter how far your draw 0:07:13.280 --> 0:07:15.440 down is. And so I think that's the that's the 0:07:15.440 --> 0:07:18.160 biggest difference between the two. But for me, I try 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:21.040 to try, I try to employ kind of a combination 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:24.400 approach of fundamental and technical. I want to trade things 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:29.240 that I believe are emerging technologies because a it's got 0:07:29.240 --> 0:07:32.080 the volume, be it's got the hype, um you know, 0:07:32.160 --> 0:07:33.800 so that that's kind of what I'm looking for. I'm 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:36.240 looking for things that people are buying or things that 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:38.480 people are going to want to buy, And I have 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.480 a I have a combination approach where you know, part 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:44.720 of my money is an investing strategy. But I still 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:47.760 think that and we talked about this before, investing and 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:52.520 trading has this blurred line where you know, you can 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:55.520 be a an investor, but you also are a trader 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:58.040 because a you want to have a good entry. You 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:00.880 don't want to invest at the top of a massive 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:05.480 rally um where you know, every technical indicator is showing 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:08.560 that it's supposed to, you know, have a correction or downside, 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:12.120 and I don't like to invest into uh, you know, 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:18.320 very very poor macro economic structure, meaning you know, what's 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:20.320 going on with the Federal Reserve, what's going on with 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:22.920 all the geopolitical stuff around the world, is showing that, 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:26.080 you know, the dollar might strengthen, showing stocks might be 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:28.280 going to I don't want to invest into a climate 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.400 like that, So I like to time it with technicals, 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:34.199 but I like to tie my position trades, meaning my 0:08:34.280 --> 0:08:39.880 longer term investments into like a really strong downtrend UH 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:44.440 into a fundamental project, right like if if Amazon drops, 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:47.839 I'm not gonna blink at buying it because the fundamentals 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:50.559 don't change from the week before to the week after. 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:54.200 It's it's you know, I'd rather buy into blood rather 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:58.400 than buying into euphoria onto my fundamental and you know, 0:08:58.480 --> 0:09:01.839 beliefs or my fundamental project. Yeah, so I think it it. 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:04.800 I think what you're saying, though, it really depends on 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.880 the specific asset class itself. So, um, when you're talking 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:11.520 about more broader based assets like Amazon, for example, there's 0:09:11.640 --> 0:09:17.679 strong fundamentals, meaning assets cash flow, returns on cash flow, earnings, 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:21.320 things like that, and so the fundamentals, as you say, 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:25.160 don't change, although the price could change. So then technically, um, 0:09:25.200 --> 0:09:27.160 that gives you good entries. But I think when you 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:30.360 get into stuff like cryptocurrencies, for example, you don't have 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:34.160 those fundamentals, so there is no cash flow, there is 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:37.240 no assets, earnings, et cetera. And so then do you 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:41.000 think that's really all more speculation or trading. I mean, 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:44.800 technically that's not investing, right, It's I would think it's 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:47.400 almost all speculation that it's going to be up, go 0:09:47.480 --> 0:09:50.120 up and value in the future. Yeah, And I think 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:54.640 I think an important point is to segregate bitcoin from 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:57.240 the rest of the market. I think that bitcoin does 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:00.880 have fundamentals, It has a value prop position, and it 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:04.199 does have You can actually calculate how much each bitcoin 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:06.959 is worth based on the electricity consumption that it takes 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:10.120 to actually produce one bitcoin into power the bitcoin network. 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:13.320 So there is some there is some you know, uh, 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:17.280 fundamental value in what you can define with bitcoin. And 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:20.360 also what is bitcoin kind of competing against and what 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:23.880 is its long term speculative value and uh, you know, 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:27.560 for bitcoin, it's the entire you know, monetary supply. Any 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:30.439 currency can go into Bitcoin. It's an alternative asset class, 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:32.400 and so that has that you kind of have to 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:36.680 segregate that from the rest of the cryptocurrency market. But yes, uh, 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:39.400 you know people and in a very good example is Ripple. 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:43.680 Ripple the company has cash flow at has earnings, but 0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:46.719 you're not buying equity into Ripple. You're buying the x 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:48.880 RP token, which used to be called Ripple but now 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:52.840 it's just called XRP. But x RP has really no 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:57.600 fundamental basis for it other than it's a use case 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:02.680 for maybe money remittance or money transfers across the world. Uh, 0:11:02.760 --> 0:11:06.160 And so that one you can't really put much of 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:08.960 a fundamental thesis behind it. There's nothing you can really 0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:13.040 measure it on. And especially because it's essentially controlled entity 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:16.360 with as far as like supply is concerned, ripple controls 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:20.079 six it. So with that, I base almost all of 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:24.400 my investing or trading decisions on technical indicators. And so 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:29.480 for me, technicals are the benchmark for what I should 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:34.080 base all of my decisions for cryptocurrency on, because who 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:36.720 controls the decisions of a lot of these things are 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:41.280 market makers and algorithms and and frequency and high frequency 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:45.240 traders in the market, and they use technical indicators as 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:47.480 a basis for almost all of their decisions. And so 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:52.360 a lot of these uh quant programs are programmed by humans, 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:55.480 and humans are looking at the technicals um and very 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:59.520 little if any have fundamental basis uh and they are 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:03.559 almost all speculative, which makes the cryptocurrency markets a beautiful 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:07.600 market to trade because you're basically trading on emotion. You're 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:11.040 trading on fear and greed and and those two emotions 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:15.040 and hope, right, and those two emotions are very very 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.640 profitable to trade off of and very easy to trade 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:22.000 off of because there's such there's such a reactive Uh, 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:25.480 it's such a reactive method of trading. Yeah, I want 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:27.720 to get into that. That's an important piece that I 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:30.040 wanted to touch on. But before we do so back 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:32.120 to your original tweet, you talked about where the best 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:35.439 investors are traders or traders shouldn't invest like investors and 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:38.160 investors not like traders. But I think, um, there's one 0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:41.319 common trade that I like, and you talked about um 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:45.040 having that thesis, and so I what I like that 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:48.079 I see with traders as traders are getting in looking 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:49.600 to get in at a certain entry and out at 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:53.000 a certain exit. And I think a lot of a 0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:55.680 lot of investors maybe a lot of times, like you said, 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.240 it's not it's easier maybe right, So they just buy 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:00.520 Amazons that's gonna go up, I'm gonna buy bitcoins is 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.280 going to go up or whatever, but they don't really 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:05.240 think about the exit, like at what point should I 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:08.320 take a profit? What's my thesis? Do I believe that 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:11.760 when I bought Amazon that I believe that e commerce 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:13.199 was going to change the world in Amazon will be 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:15.960 the leader? If so, I wait that long? Or do 0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:18.400 I think I'm buying it? Bitcoin in ten thousand day 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:20.000 and it's gonna go to twenty tho, I'm gonna sell 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:23.120 out there, right, So what do you think about that, uh, 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:26.520 that investing thesis that that I guess investors could learn 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.679 from traitors. Well, it's that that's a that's a hard 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:34.320 thing to really judge. Right when is the best time 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:37.160 to sell? Right? Because people, people that bought it at 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.840 twenty thous what if bitcoin goes to a million dollars, 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.320 They're gonna look like a genius? Right, And I'm I'm 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:46.400 working on this post or this this article. Basically I did. 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.040 I did a tweet about a week ago that said, 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:53.120 given enough time, bitcoin is an asset that makes everyone 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.400 look like a genius, no matter where they bought it at. 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:59.400 And the whole concept is looking at every bubble of bitcoin, 0:13:59.800 --> 0:14:02.240 and everybody who bought at the top, no matter how 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.200 high you know, at the very tippy top, is a 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:08.600 genius unless you bought it twenty But we are rapidly 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.720 approaching that. We are going to make them geniuses too. 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.200 And so if you bought it a hundred dollars before 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:18.200 a crash down to you know, a dollar, you're still 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:21.880 a genius because even if you held draw down and 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:24.080 it went all the way to the current price. Now 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:27.000 at ten thousand dollars, you still made a hundred extra 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:28.840 turn on your money, a hundred dollars to ten thousand. 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:31.400 If you bought at you know, two thousand dollars, you 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:33.480 bought a five thousand dollars. If you bought at twenty 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:36.240 tho dollars. I think in five years, if, if, if, 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:39.720 and when bitcoin gets to two hift dollars, you're still 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.160 gonna look like an incredible genius because you've just ten 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:44.000 extrar money. You've made a hundred percent on your money 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:46.160 in one of the fastest great asset classes. And so 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:51.120 that's really hard to say because holding holding bitcoin, I know, 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:55.320 it's become a meme is very very difficulty. They say 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.360 it's super easy, but it's actually really really difficult. You 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:02.000 have to have the gut in the fortitude of you know, 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:05.880 a mercenary right. You have to really be able to 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.240 hold through some massive draw downs. Bitcoin went from twenty 0:15:08.280 --> 0:15:11.600 thousand to three thousand. Most people capitulated. You could see 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:16.359 the um. It's called the day the decay of of um. 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:19.240 It's like basically the time of decay for bitcoin. Hold 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:22.000 alurs and and it's basically the amount of new money 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.920 that comes into the amount of old bitcoin that gets exchanged. 0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:27.120 And I had the highest volume at three thousand, two hundred, 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:28.400 and I said, I think a lot of the old 0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:31.760 holdelers who bought at you know, five hundred thousand dollars, 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.360 I think they capitulated at because I thought. I think 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.840 they thought it was gonna go much much lower. And 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:39.720 so it's really interesting because if you believe in the 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:43.400 thesis and you believe that, you know, bitcoin can become 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:47.520 a world currency, the sky is really the limit because 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.920 now you're talking seven hundred billion dollars in derivative assets, 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.560 and you're talking, uh, the you know, the monetary supply 0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:56.760 of the UK, the British pound, that the US dollar 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.800 and all that stuff. So having an exit in mind 0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:02.600 for bitcoin is very tough. I think that's probably one 0:16:02.640 --> 0:16:05.440 of the hardest assets to really kind of peg down. 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:08.520 As a trader, you can definitely figure out when you 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:10.600 want a time in and time out. And one of 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.680 my thesis that I've always held true, and one thing 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:18.480 that saved me in seventeen was if an investment or 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:22.040 a trade, if you take profits and it's enough to 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:25.280 change your life or change the circumstances of your life 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.960 for the better are on the table. I would always 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:32.000 recommend at least taking that because you never know what's 0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.840 gonna happen. You never know, you know, tomorrow the whole 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.360 UH landscape could change with regulations, fadd on ramps, all 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.040 the steven things, and your investment that is, you know, 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:43.280 basically set you up for life, or set you up 0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:45.280 for the next ten fifteen years to be able to 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:47.440 live life to the fullest, have the freedom you want, 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:49.840 retire from your job, you know, give you time to 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:52.640 find a new job. If you don't take that, UH, 0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:54.600 then then it's always gonna It's always gonna be in 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:56.120 the back of your mind. It's always gonna beat you 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:58.600 up if it if it crashes, or if the price 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:01.520 turns around. And I think the biggest thing about bitcoin 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:04.199 and cryptocurrencies is fomo, the fear of missing out. I 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:07.480 see people buying at the bottoms of you know, every 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:10.040 single dip, every single dip, every single dip, because they're 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:13.720 so afraid of missing that one candle that you know 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.880 it goes up with thousands. But the markets don't move 0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:20.239 like that. Bottoms don't form off of um you know, 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:24.199 off of just one single candle. Typically bottoms take you know, 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:27.280 time to form and so, and there's always time to 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.439 enter into an uptrending market. I think you have a 0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.040 very famous quote of Rockefeller where he says he made 0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:36.880 the most money not by getting into earlier getting out, 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:38.679 you know, getting into the bottom or getting out at 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:40.399 the top. He always made his money in the middle 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:43.359 by just following the trend and then exiting before the 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:46.040 before the top was formed. So that's kind of my 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:48.920 investing thesis for bitcoin. I know, you know where my 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.680 exit points are. I know where my entry points are, 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:53.960 and you know, for me, it's it's about you know, 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:56.080 making enough money to to form freedom. But I do 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:58.919 have a portion of it where I just never touch it, 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:03.080 right because my thesis is that bitcoin could eventually take 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:06.359 over as a global revert reserve currency. It's the best 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:09.400 competition we've ever seen against the dollar, and the dollars 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:11.680 is the best currency on in the world. And I 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:13.919 don't think that, and I think that bitcoin has a 0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:16.720 good chance as long as the technology continues to evolve. 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:19.920 But you know, that's my thesis and I can't recommend 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:23.240 it for everybody. Now you mentioned um you mentioned how 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:25.920 people are trying to foamoin at the bottom and they're 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:28.560 trying to capture that candle catching knives as we like 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:32.760 to say. Um, it's it seems like it's really hard 0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:35.200 for people to be either a traitor or an investor 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:38.239 because it goes against our own human intentions, right, Like 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:40.800 we just wanna we we want to we want pleasure, 0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:43.600 we want to get away from pain. Um. And I 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:47.480 know you've talked a lot about how actually technical analysis 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:50.600 actually plays along with that human emotion you think, right, 0:18:50.680 --> 0:18:56.399 like the mathematical formulas somehow can predict that human emotion cycle. Yeah. 0:18:56.520 --> 0:19:01.639 So Fibonacci is a perfect example. I've studying Fibonacci just 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:05.600 in nature, but also apply to the markets and and sentiment. 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:09.080 I created my own Fibonacci UH sequence. It's called the 0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:12.960 Canfield Fibonacci sequence. It's a it's a a sequence of 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.600 numbers that apply to long term investing thesis. Um, you 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:19.920 can google that online. But Fibinaci is really really interesting 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:23.520 because those Fibonacci levels, the sixty one point eight percent ratio, 0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:26.120 the seventy eight point six ratio. I believe that these 0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:29.800 are measurements of human emotion. When something is in a rally, 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.720 it shows you exactly how euphoric people can be. And 0:19:32.760 --> 0:19:36.520 it turns around as specific um Fibonacci extension levels because 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:39.399 it shows you how exuberant group of people can be 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:42.879 or cohort or population. And then the retracements are showing 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:46.280 exactly how fearful people can be, how how much are 0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:49.480 people willing to sell down? In those ratios um I 0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:52.800 think are a direct reflection of human emotion, and and 0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:58.439 it quantifies human emotion, It quantifies reactionary uh, reactionary into 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:01.919 into markets. And obviously you can say it's you know, 0:20:02.000 --> 0:20:05.160 self fulfilling prophecy. It could be algorithms that trade off 0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:07.840 of those levels, um, you know, chicken or the egg 0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:10.480 type of thing. Are we measuring human emotion? Are we 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:15.119 measuring uh, just quantifiable data that algorithms are using. You know, 0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:17.560 you can it can go one way or the other, 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:21.320 but yeah, I believe that we have the human emotion piece, 0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:23.800 which I like to say volatility price going up and 0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:27.359 down is the difference between perception and reality. And so 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:31.439 we perceived something to be like when bitcoin h we 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:34.280 perceived it to be way further ahead, like it was 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:36.280 ready to take over the world. But the reality is 0:20:36.320 --> 0:20:38.360 it wasn't, and so perception had to come down, price 0:20:38.400 --> 0:20:40.920 had to come down. But then it overcorrected. So then 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:45.760 bitcoin made massive advancements in regulation and technology and adoption, 0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:49.200 but then the perception obceived value was really low and 0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:51.960 so it went too far and and and it keep 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:55.280 going back and forth. And I guess, uh what I 0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:57.600 like to say about that is also what you're saying 0:20:57.640 --> 0:21:00.840 with the Fibonacci's and so um, that's how it's reacting 0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:06.760 between perception and reality. Yeah, uh more more based on 0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:13.119 like fear and greed and you know, euphoria, Like I 0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:15.239 would say, I would say fear and euphoria are kind 0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:17.960 of the two emotions that are the you know, the 0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:22.160