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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we.

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Speaker 1: Go spreading the corn ten seconds or maining. Just go

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Speaker 1: show me up to the basket.

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Speaker 3: Under the basket, it's the truth for the wind.

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Speaker 4: God make a miracle.

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Speaker 3: I sup the water.

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Speaker 2: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the National Championship Player Prop Show. We've whittled

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Speaker 1: the feel down from sixty eight to just two, but

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Speaker 1: don't worry, we're keeping our esteemed panel of prop specialists

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Speaker 1: at four. Here on Mike Calvaries, I'm joined by three

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Speaker 1: prop legends, Sean Kerner, Nick Giffen, and Eric binefour. Before

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Speaker 1: we get into the action, we do know it's a

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Speaker 1: little bit tricky sometimes to find these player props, so

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Speaker 1: we're gonna make it as easy as possible for you.

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Speaker 1: If you're watching along on the YouTube show, just go

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Speaker 1: to the YouTube chat that'll allow you to immediately add

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Speaker 1: these picks to your bet slips and get them onto

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Speaker 1: your card as fast as possible. All Right, Sean, let

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Speaker 1: me hit you up because you already have a winner

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Speaker 1: in the proper market today. You were able to hit

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Speaker 1: Casey Miz on a strikeouts over cruise pass that number

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Speaker 1: sweat free. So you're feeling the mojo here coming in,

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Speaker 1: and I assume that you're just going to go with

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Speaker 1: an over. Make it fun. It's the last game of

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Speaker 1: the year. Why would you possibly give us a really

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Speaker 1: gross under. You wouldn't do that to us on the

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Speaker 1: last show?

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Speaker 2: No, No, absolutely not. But you know, I'm feeling good

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Speaker 2: after that, you know, early cash of the day, so

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Speaker 2: why not. I'm going to do something maybe a little crazy,

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Speaker 2: maybe a little stupid, but it's definitely bold. I'm actually

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Speaker 2: gonna take Walter Clayton junior under. I'm sorry you broke

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Speaker 2: up there for a second. You said Walter Clayton over

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Speaker 2: thirty five points at one. Yeah, yeah, yeah, an over

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Speaker 2: parlay that you know. Uh, let's keep it rolling. No,

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Speaker 2: I'm actually going the under. Believe it or not. Well,

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Speaker 2: you know, gross unders are kind of my thing.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: I thought I was going to be the first person

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Speaker 2: to bet his under for the game, but it sounds

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Speaker 2: like Eric Artor beat me to the punch. So I

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Speaker 2: have some solid company on this, you know, gruesome under

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Speaker 2: as you called it, Like, you know, he's been incredible.

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Speaker 2: He's a guy I don't want to fade. He's coming

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Speaker 2: out back to back thirty plus point games. But I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't really consider this a fade on him as a player,

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Speaker 2: but more of a bet on the country's best defense

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Speaker 2: in the Houston Cougar. So this is this is a

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Speaker 2: bet on their defense to potentially find a way to

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Speaker 2: slow them down. So not only could they find a

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Speaker 2: way to slow him down, but you know, they play

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Speaker 2: at one of the slowest paces in the country, so

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Speaker 2: Florida's gonna have you know, fewer possessions than normal here,

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Speaker 2: so that's you know, just less chances for Clayton Junior

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Speaker 2: to score. Plus you know, over this last seventeen game stretch,

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Speaker 2: he's averaged nineteen point eight points, but Florida has averaged

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Speaker 2: eighty eight points a game over that stretch, and their

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Speaker 2: team total tonight is right around seventy, which which I

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Speaker 2: pretty much agree with. So that's eighteen points lower than

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Speaker 2: his last seventeen game stretch when he was kind of

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Speaker 2: average this you know, point total. So that's that's going

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Speaker 2: to be a hit on him specifically. But you know,

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Speaker 2: I ran my sims and I'm projecting him closer, you know,

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Speaker 2: seventeen and a half points, so about a fifty nine

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Speaker 2: percent chance he stays under nineteen and a half here,

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to go with the bowl play here

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Speaker 2: with Clayton Junior under nineteen and a half points.

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Speaker 1: I'm interested you brought up your sims. If Houston does

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Speaker 1: do what they usually do on the defensive end, they're

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Speaker 1: monstering those ball screens, they're doubling potentially trying to get

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Speaker 1: the ball out of Clayton Junior's hands. Do you see

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Speaker 1: his assist ticking up and is that something that perhaps

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Speaker 1: our audience could look for if they're going for a

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Speaker 1: pro Clayton Junior play.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, I think that that could be something that happens.

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Speaker 2: If they double him, maybe he'll he'll be more of

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Speaker 2: a distributor. Houston does you know, allow a lot of

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Speaker 2: threes all things considered, and high assist rate, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: that that would be a path for him to still

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Speaker 2: be part of the scoring without actually scoring points. So

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Speaker 2: that could be something that you know, Florida you know,

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Speaker 2: buys into. But yeah, like we were showing some slight

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Speaker 2: value on the over on his assists, I believe, and

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Speaker 2: the under on points, So that would totally line up

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Speaker 2: with our projections.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Nick, let's get you involved here. Certainly you're gonna

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Speaker 1: come with something fun. We can all root for it.

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Speaker 1: Ball goes through the basket.

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Speaker 5: Right, Well, maybe for the next pick, but for this one,

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Speaker 5: I got to go to and maybe an even grosser under.

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Speaker 5: I know Shawn's is gross simply because you know it's

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Speaker 5: the star player there, Walton Clayton, Walter Clayton Junior. But

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go to his teammate, Rubin Chinjelou under five

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Speaker 5: and a half points at minus one twenty five. Look,

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Speaker 5: he's averaging six point one points in SEC tournament and

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Speaker 5: NCAA tournament play, but that's with Florida scoring eighty eight

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Speaker 5: point four points in those games. So he's only scoring

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Speaker 5: six point nine percent of Florida's points and out there

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Speaker 5: implied team total of around seventy points, that would equate

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Speaker 5: to just four point eight points if he was scoring

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Speaker 5: that six point nine percent number. And that's without making

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Speaker 5: any adjustments, and obviously we need to make some adjustments here.

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Speaker 5: Chielu has had two games where he's played over twenty

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Speaker 5: minutes in these tournaments, and both of them came with

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Speaker 5: special circumstances. One when of course, Condon got injured, and

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Speaker 5: the other the most recent game, Conan filed out and

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Speaker 5: he got in foul trouble super early. But I don't

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Speaker 5: think Alex Condon is going to get into foul trouble here.

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Speaker 5: Houston three hundred and twenty seventh in the nation in

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Speaker 5: terms of getting to the line, and especially they're bigs,

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Speaker 5: don't really get to the line a lot, especially Joseph

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Speaker 5: Tugler and Houston. Of course, they also play at a slow pace.

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Speaker 5: That's part of why this total is. You know that

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Speaker 5: team total is down to seventy for Florida here, and

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Speaker 5: I think there's some shooting regression in store for chin Gaalo.

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Speaker 5: He's been hitting about sixty five percent of his shots

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Speaker 5: from inside. He only shoots from inside, and you know

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Speaker 5: his career average is sixty percent, So there could be

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Speaker 5: a little bit of irression there since he's been hitting

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Speaker 5: sixty five percent in these tournaments. And of course against Houston,

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Speaker 5: you know, one of the best two point defenses in

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Speaker 5: the nation with Tugler there, Jojo Tugler, it's going to

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Speaker 5: be very tough. I think for chin Yale to get

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Speaker 5: a lot of the looks and have some successful looks here.

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Speaker 5: So you know, Houston definitely forces teams to shoot outside

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Speaker 5: more because of their great interior defense. So we're projecting

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Speaker 5: closer to four and a half in maybe a generous

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Speaker 5: seventeen and a half minutes of play, which would give

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Speaker 5: him about a sixty six percent chance of staying under

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Speaker 5: five and a half.

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Speaker 1: I like the fundamentals of that bet. You laid it

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Speaker 1: out perfectly. But for the love of God, Eric, do

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Speaker 1: you have an over something good to happen that we

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Speaker 1: can root for in this game?

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Speaker 6: I can bring a little bit more fun to the

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Speaker 6: table here with it is it is a points over.

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Speaker 6: We're keeping it simple. Juwan Roberts over eleven and a

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Speaker 6: half points minus one thirty and these have all been

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Speaker 6: pretty clear cut. I think Houston, you outlined at Mike,

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Speaker 6: is one of those teams that obviously they're the best

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Speaker 6: defense in the country, but they're very specific in how

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Speaker 6: they do things on both ends of the floor, and

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Speaker 6: in this matchup in particul, I think Juwan is probably

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Speaker 6: the clearest avenue they have to points. Obviously, Uza and

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Speaker 6: Crier and those guys are gonna take shots. They're going

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Speaker 6: to make shots, but Florida does not double the post

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Speaker 6: Florida's they have a bunch of bigs, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 6: Chinelu and Condon, and how can all these guys. They're

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Speaker 6: gonna play one on one with Roberts in the post,

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Speaker 6: and that's kind of outside of the guards going isolation

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Speaker 6: the way that Houston really likes to play offense. The

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Speaker 6: primary post bigs against Florida in this tournament have seen

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Speaker 6: elevated volume and have had a ton of success. You know,

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Speaker 6: Broom was absolutely dominating early with one arm and maybe

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Speaker 6: one leg in that game. A pretty good second half

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Speaker 6: there from Florida, but JT toppin huge volume, Derek Queen,

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Speaker 6: Julian Reese, the Yukon bigs, especially Samson. Johnson is not

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Speaker 6: a scorer, and he scored in double digits against this

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Speaker 6: Florida team all the way back to the first round

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Speaker 6: against Norfolk State, who covered against Florida. By the way,

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Speaker 6: they're big man. Chris Fields scored fourteen points against this

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Speaker 6: Florida front line. They just kind of allow a little

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Speaker 6: more volume and try to take away outside shooting, which

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Speaker 6: I think just funnels everything. Juwan Roberts. We saw a

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Speaker 6: similar setup against Gonzaga, who's just gonna let Graham Eke

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Speaker 6: and bringing Hoffen, those guys guard in the post and Jawan.

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Speaker 6: Roberts had a thirty percent used to draate in that game,

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Speaker 6: scored eighteen points. He even went out with this number,

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Speaker 6: albeit on maybe an interesting final foul call light late

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Speaker 6: last game in the Final four, but he did to

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Speaker 6: go over this number against Duke with their elite defense

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Speaker 6: and flag and Malowatchin and those guys. So I think

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Speaker 6: Roberts is the clearcut way for Houston to score some

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Speaker 6: points and the clear cut way for us to get

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Speaker 6: on track with some more fun bets as opposed to

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Speaker 6: these gross gross unders were on here.

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Speaker 1: I absolutely agree with that play. I'm going to piggyback

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Speaker 1: onto it for my second prop. I'm bringing to the

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Speaker 1: table to get things started. Though, milosus in twenty or

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Speaker 1: more points in this game. It bubbled up close to

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Speaker 1: seven to one, It sounded plus five eighty in the market.

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Speaker 1: I like it down to eleven to two. And the

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Speaker 1: reason is this team and their overall ceiling was elevated

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Speaker 1: once he basically progressed and matured as a player on

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Speaker 1: the offensive end about halfway through this season, and since

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Speaker 1: then he has shown up in big games time and

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Speaker 1: time again. You saw it in the Big twelfth title

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Speaker 1: game against Arizona, Goes for twenty plus, goes for twenty

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Speaker 1: plus with six triples against Purdue, including the game winner.

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Speaker 1: And in terms of a pure value play, I don't

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Speaker 1: see a player on Houston that has more upside that

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Speaker 1: could be needed more in this game than u Zen.

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Speaker 1: He also always has the potential. As I mentioned, there's

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Speaker 1: six threes against Purdue. He can unload the clip from

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Speaker 1: three point range. He has seven games this season with

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Speaker 1: six or more attempts from long range. The Gators allowed

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Speaker 1: twenty three triple attempts per game, which is about one

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Speaker 1: hundred and eighty fifth in the entire country. And the

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Speaker 1: recency bias just shake it off against Duke. Not only

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Speaker 1: did he get into foul trouble, but in terms of

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Speaker 1: the flow and where the basketball was going in the

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Speaker 1: second half, it was going to Crier and rightfully so.

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Speaker 1: But this is a brand new game, start fresh. I

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Speaker 1: think there's a good chance for him to go off

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Speaker 1: in this game. And also we talk about pace, and

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Speaker 1: I like Houston in the game, and I think that

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Speaker 1: they will impose their will and could potentially win a

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Speaker 1: Rock fight, but if it goes the other way and

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Speaker 1: Florida is able to speed them up. And this game

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Speaker 1: is played in the seventies or low eighties, and Houston

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Speaker 1: has been coaxed in to a game or two like

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Speaker 1: that in the past few seasons. Under Sampson, all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, a huge scoring night becomes much more plausible

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Speaker 1: for a player like u z In than it is currently.

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Speaker 3: Head course shots and mascot spuzz A beta.

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Speaker 4: And so much just bar keep chieving, disappearing freshman with

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Speaker 4: a hot hand shoots and scores.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's turn on to our second prop bets

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Speaker 1: of the night. I'm just making sure doctor. You know,

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Speaker 1: doctor Nick, you're gonna go first. But Shawn, you have

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Speaker 1: nothing to bring to the table. You're just gonna leave

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Speaker 1: us with that under on Walter Clinton.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Clayton fade was all I got for today.

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Speaker 2: That took a lot out of me. But I'll definitely

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Speaker 2: have some like more strikeout props and stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: But I am tapped out after that Clayton under trust me.

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Speaker 1: All right, Nick, we ate our vegetables with your under

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Speaker 1: five and a half points on a member of the

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Speaker 1: Florida front court. Now you're going to get us to

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Speaker 1: dessert here at a sixteen to one prop bet.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, unfortunately it's now fourteen to one and it's

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Speaker 5: not a player prop. But I gotta stay on doctor

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Speaker 5: Nick Brand here and go with overtime fourteen to one,

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Speaker 5: so that gives us something to root for, right, the

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Speaker 5: neutrals like me who have nothing in it. Right, I

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Speaker 5: had Auburn versus Duke in the championship game, so my

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Speaker 5: bracket is already done, so I'm a neutral. I got

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Speaker 5: nothing here. I just want some overtime. I have no

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Speaker 5: other reasons than it's a one point spread, right, Let's

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Speaker 5: have some fun. Let's bet overtime. It's no other analysis

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Speaker 5: other than that.

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Speaker 1: Eric, When I think about this game, I think first

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Speaker 1: about Samson in his room with his coaches. Just rewind

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Speaker 1: the tape, rewinding the tape, play play play every single

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Speaker 1: Walter Cleyton junior three pointer Steph Curry like move, and

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Speaker 1: I know he's just telling his assistance we can't let

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Speaker 1: this guy kill us. We have to do whatever we

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Speaker 1: can do to get the ball out of his hands.

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Speaker 1: And as I mentioned earlier, that's a part of their

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Speaker 1: game plan and doubling, forcing those cross court passes where

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Speaker 1: they get steals, but they gamble, and when they do

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Speaker 1: that and you properly swing and rotate the basketball, you

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Speaker 1: can get some open threes. You think there's one player

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Speaker 1: in particular on the Gators who could be in line

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Speaker 1: for a big night from downtown.

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Speaker 3: Yep.

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Speaker 6: I think the price is just to tick off on

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Speaker 6: will Richard. We're going with three plus three pointers at

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Speaker 6: plus two sixty. Sean kind of hinted on it before.

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Speaker 6: You just hinted on it there, you know, Houston. The

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Speaker 6: kind of breakdown of Houston's defensive scheme is probably even

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Speaker 6: a little bit of a broken record at this point.

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Speaker 6: We've been talking about it, but it is so specific

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Speaker 6: and it highlights certain things that teams not only end

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Speaker 6: up doing just because it's the easiest attempt, but Houston

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Speaker 6: specifically forces you into doing that. They took Braden Smith

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Speaker 6: completely out of that game. They kind of took everybody

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Speaker 6: on Duke out out of that game the other night,

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Speaker 6: And I wholeheartedly agree with you that that's exactly what

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Speaker 6: Calvin Sampson and co. Are going to do. They're gonna,

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Speaker 6: you know, anytime even dribble handoffs, right, it's not just

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Speaker 6: ball screens, dribble handoffs to Walter Clayton because Florida doesn't

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Speaker 6: run a ton of pick and roll, but they're going

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Speaker 6: to blitz those. They're going to do everything to keep

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Speaker 6: Walter Clayton uncomfortable and not getting his open three pointers.

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Speaker 6: And he's pretty much always open, and so he's going

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Speaker 6: to get a ton of pressure, which leads to those

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Speaker 6: backside three pointers.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 6: We didn't quite get home with Sion James and some

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Speaker 6: of the Duke guys, but the opportunity was definitely there,

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Speaker 6: and Will Richard and Elijah Martin as well, But I

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Speaker 6: think the numbers a little better for Will Richard is

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Speaker 6: a high volume three point shooter. He's shooting thirty five

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Speaker 6: percent on the year with two hundred and sixteen total attempts,

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Speaker 6: So you average that out, that's about five and a

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Speaker 6: half little over five and a half attempts per game.

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Speaker 6: And this is a really high volume spot for him,

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Speaker 6: so he could get white hot. He has shown it

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Speaker 6: several times this season, highvout double digit three point attempts

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Speaker 6: in multiple games this year. We actually saw in a

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Speaker 6: very similar matchup with Texas A and M who did

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Speaker 6: that to Walter Clayton. They would not let Walter Clayton

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Speaker 6: lead him, beat him, blitz the pick and roll. And

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Speaker 6: will Richard led the game in scoring with twenty five

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Speaker 6: points and went six for nine from three. So I

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Speaker 6: think we have a very similar type game here that

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Speaker 6: we saw in the Texas A and M game, and

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Speaker 6: Houston is probably even more aggressive in taking to get

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Speaker 6: the ball out of Walter Clayton's hands. So I love

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Speaker 6: some Will Richard three pointers.

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Speaker 1: Eric. I appreciate everything he laid out with Juwan Roberts

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Speaker 1: and the potential for him to go over his player

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Speaker 1: prop on points tonight. For that reason, I'm going to

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Speaker 1: piggyback on it. Let's go seven to one on him

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Speaker 1: getting a double double, because I do think he's going

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Speaker 1: to get countless opportunities in the post. And when it

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Speaker 1: comes to offensive rebounding, this is what is interesting when

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Speaker 1: playing Florida. Florida gets a bunch of credit for what

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Speaker 1: they do on the offensive glass themselves, but in the

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Speaker 1: defensive glass they're one hundred and thirty seventh in terms

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Speaker 1: of defensive rebounding percentage. So this is a player who

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Speaker 1: just up against Duke in the very last Roberts was

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Speaker 1: able to come away with four offensive rebounds. That duke

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Speaker 1: length in the front court didn't bother him as much

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Speaker 1: as some pundits assumed it would. So I think there's

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Speaker 1: an opportunity for him to get to double digits. And

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Speaker 1: this would be the fourth time in the last eight games.

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Speaker 1: So you go back to the Big Twelve tournament. He's

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Speaker 1: been playing the highest profile games and still doing damage

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Speaker 1: on the glass. At seven to one, that's just too

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Speaker 1: much value for me to pass up. So I see

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Speaker 1: Juwan Roberts going, let's call it twelve and twelve points

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Speaker 1: and rebounds in a spot like this, and this would

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Speaker 1: be a great thing to cash before the season is

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Speaker 1: officially over all right, speaking of it being over, this

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Speaker 1: is the last game we got to get a full

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Speaker 1: prediction from everybody. Score winner. I'll start with you, Sean. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go with Florida winning seventy to sixty

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Speaker 2: eight on a Clayton Junior game, winning three at the

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Speaker 2: buzzer to end with exactly eighteen points, cash the under

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Speaker 2: nineteen and a half. My worst bracket ever ends up

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Speaker 2: being sixty eight percent tele because that had Florida winning

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Speaker 2: at all. See, I'm gonna go with that.

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Speaker 1: And just so you know, sean absolute buzzer beater was

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Speaker 1: zero points zero on the clock, Walter Clayton in the

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Speaker 1: shot that pays sixty to one out there in the market.

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Speaker 1: So if you feel that much commision, you may as

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Speaker 1: well toss that on there. Nick, What are your thoughts here?

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Speaker 5: Yeah? I just edited my final score. But here's another

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Speaker 5: thing about this overtime. Remember the last time we had

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Speaker 5: all four one seeds in the final four two thousand

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Speaker 5: and eight, what happened in that game? It went to

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Speaker 5: overtime in the championship game, Kansas seventy five sixty eight

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Speaker 5: over Memphis. So I'm going Houston seventy five sixty eight

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Speaker 5: in overtime.

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Speaker 6: Eric, any deep historical cuts to fuel your pick here, No,

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Speaker 6: I'm not quite bringing the heat that those two guys

351
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Speaker 6: are with the final score here. My general sentiment is

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Speaker 6: what you said before, I kind of think Houston. I'm

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Speaker 6: picking Houston sixty four sixty two, which would clearly dictate

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Speaker 6: that Houston is having it their way here. I think

355
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Speaker 6: I can't think of a moment for Calvin Samson and

356
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Speaker 6: all of these you know, tough dudes on Houston to

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Speaker 6: come impose their will in the national championship game. I

358
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Speaker 6: think they slow it down. It's a total rock fight.

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Speaker 6: But Houston pulls away in the end, and maybe not

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Speaker 6: on a Walter Clayton three pointer. I don't want to

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Speaker 6: sweat that, sweat that under with him at the end,

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Speaker 6: but sixty four sixty two Houston.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go sixty seven sixty six Houston. And just

364
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Speaker 1: to paint a picture, I think they double team Clayton

365
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Speaker 1: on the final possession. He's frustrated with it all night,

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Speaker 1: still gets up a fade away three at the buzzer

367
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Speaker 1: rattles out, and Houston cuts down the nets in their

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Speaker 1: home state as a national champion. That'll do it for us.

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Speaker 1: I'm Mike Caliberty's joined as always by Sean Kerner, doctor

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Speaker 1: Nick and Eric Binforth. Thank you so much for riding

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Speaker 1: along with us. A reminder in the chat, you can

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Speaker 1: go ahead and hit those quick slips to get those

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Speaker 1: bets populated in your sports book of choice. So if

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Speaker 1: you want to go ahead and tail us on those bets,

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Speaker 1: we made as easy as possible for you. Thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for listening and follow along the entire season.

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Speaker 1: Everyone here at Action Network We know you as the

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Speaker 1: fans and as audience members really make it for us,

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Speaker 1: so please join us next year as we get into

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Speaker 1: college hoops again at the beginning of the season. Thanks

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Speaker 1: again and best of.

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Speaker 3: Luck on your bets, head course shots and mascot suzzle

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Speaker 3: Beta Bha.

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Speaker 4: That's shut lugeous.

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Speaker 1: Keep cheering.

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Speaker 4: Disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and scores that

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Speaker 4: SLA marches.

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Speaker 3: Say up your part, Oh no, no mad go a

389
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 3: little madness in my eye, Let me out my moment

390
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Speaker 3: jump that slat Barges.

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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler