WEBVTT - The Hurricanes of the Future 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:07.160 Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Welcome to 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:14.800 Forward Thinking. Hey there, and welcome to Forward Thinking, the 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:17.799 podcast that looks at the future and says, here, I 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:21.400 am rock you like a hurricane. I'm Jonathan Strickland, I'm 0:00:21.440 --> 0:00:26.880 Lauren Vocal, so you will scorpions did before you. Joe 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:30.560 is shaking his head. I am Joe McCormick. Today we 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:35.479 are going to be talking about storms. Storms. Is that 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:39.919 the topic? Yes, Well, specifically called when there's wind and 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:45.239 water comes down from the sky, that's the storm apocalypse. Yeah, well, 0:00:45.680 --> 0:00:50.400 we're gonna specifically talk about hurricanes today, the future of hurricanes, 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:57.200 because we we You may have heard various climate change scientists, climatologists, 0:00:57.480 --> 0:01:03.320 and various computer scientists talking about models that are trying 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:05.720 to predict what the world will be like in the 0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:08.480 future due to climate change. One of the things that 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:11.959 always pops up is the discussion of hurricanes. So we 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:15.119 wanted to kind of take that topic and explore what 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.800 we know and what we don't know, talk about like 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:20.520 what are we fairly certain about, what what sort of 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:24.560 elements are really kind of just a best guest scenario. Yeah, 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:27.160 I think it's worth pointing out as a disclaimer at 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:29.200 the beginning of this episode that there seems to be 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:33.560 a little bit less agreement here than on climate change generally. 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:37.560 People sometimes seems to seem to confuse these two points. 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.039 But just to reiterate something we've said on the show before, 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:44.560 that the planet is warming. There's really no disputing, but 0:01:44.640 --> 0:01:47.880 exactly what the effects are going to be, or at 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:49.520 least what some of the effects are going to be, 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:53.120 is still being debated. Oh absolutely, because tracking trends is 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:58.720 pretty easy data collection, but and by pretty easy, I 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:02.080 mean ridiculously difficult to a global effort in this particular case. 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.080 But but yeah, trying to figure out what that's going 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:08.760 to do to global weather systems or very specific weather 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:12.040 systems is whole that's that's a whole other separation. And 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:14.600 we've not to say that we can't say anything interesting 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:18.400 about is that that scientists can't create accurate models. I 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:22.200 think that we very likely can. But just to establish 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:25.760 at the beginning, this is not as settled as climate 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:28.959 as climate change science in the general sense. Yeah, yeah, 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:30.959 And it's something that you'll if you if you read 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:35.480 into it, it's something that the climatologists themselves will say upfront, 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:38.840 usually like they talk about which model they're using, right, 0:02:38.880 --> 0:02:42.880 because they the models are doing their best to take 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:47.800 as many factors into account to simulate what would actually 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:50.760 happen in the real world as possible. But we've talked 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:56.520 about it before how weather systems are notoriously complex and intricate, 0:02:56.639 --> 0:03:00.200 and we don't have a full understanding of how their 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:03.720 systems work on a on you know, like on a 0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:06.880 on a part where we can actually definitively say here's 0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:10.040 what is going to happen. Here is when it will happen. Yeah, 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:12.520 But with all those qualifications in mind, I think it 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:16.359 would be really interesting to talk about what scientists are 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:18.640 saying about what the storms of the future are going 0:03:18.680 --> 0:03:22.040 to are gonna look like. Yeah, So going with hurricanes, 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:25.200 let's talk about, you know, laying down the groundwork so 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.840 we understand what we're what we're saying when we when 0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:30.959 we actually use the word hurricane. Uh. I think most 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:32.800 of us have an idea of what that is, especially 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.320 those of us who live along the East coast of 0:03:35.360 --> 0:03:38.560 the United States, but the word cyclone is also often used. 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:43.720 Previous Florida resident, Yeah, someone who you know, I've certainly 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:47.360 seen my share of of weather effects that came to 0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:50.240 us courtesy of a hurricane. Of course, Atlanta is so 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:53.560 far inland that we don't get the uh, the brunt 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:57.280 of any sort of hurricane hitting landfall, but we definitely 0:03:57.320 --> 0:03:59.800 get the storms that are a result of that. Oh. Yeah, 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:02.320 it's interesting if you've never lived in a part of 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:06.360 the world that gets tropical cyclones, you know, hurricanes whatever, 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:11.600 coming in. It's it's interesting to see the dregs of 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:14.480 a hurricane. They come through here all the time. Somebody 0:04:14.480 --> 0:04:17.280 else south of us got hit really hard, and we 0:04:17.360 --> 0:04:19.880 just get a bad rainstorm pretty much. And of course, 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:23.000 you know, recently we've seen hurricanes, Like recently, as in 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:27.240 the last five years, we've seen hurricanes hit some places 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:29.880 that normally don't see much hurricane activity at all, like 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:34.080 New York City, because the storm generally will disperse before 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:36.919 it ever gets there. Yeah, So let's talk about what 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:40.480 is going on with hurricane formation and why they disperse 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:44.479 when they get to certain areas. First, we have to 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:49.160 talk about atmospheric pressure, right, So when the atmospheric pressure 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:52.640 reaches a certain level, the goddess of the equatorial Ocean 0:04:52.760 --> 0:04:58.080 becomes very angry, you know, I was hoping that by 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:03.360 forbidding the mystical acts from the studio we would avoid 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:06.719 such things, but apparently there's just no stopping you joke. Wait, 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:09.719 are you saying that the weather is caused by physical forces? 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:12.320 It is, in fact caused by physical forces, and not 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:16.800 those that emanate from some soggy guitar to the bottom 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:21.479 of the ocean. I've been misinformed. Will please enlighten me, Johnathan. 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:25.440 So atmosphere has weight, right, It's as we say, I 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:27.680 feel like about once a week on the show, like 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:30.600 the air is not thin. It is soup. Yes, it 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.120 is soup, and that means that the soup towards the 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:37.160 bottom is being squished by all the soup at the top. Right, So, 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:40.880 the air towards the bottom of towards the surface near 0:05:40.880 --> 0:05:43.560 the surface of the Earth, whether it's land or ocean, 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:46.200 is being compressed by the air molecules that are higher up, 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:49.320 and the air closer to the surface is being warmed 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.359 not directly by the sun, but rather through the heat 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:56.760 that is emanating from the warmed land mass in ocean water, 0:05:56.880 --> 0:05:59.760 So the sun warms the water and the land, and 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.799 it radiates the heat back up into the air. Right. 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:05.920 So then as air heats up, the molecules that make 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:08.359 up the air start to move apart from one another. 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:12.320 They start getting active, right. The molecular activity increases, that 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:16.560 is what heat is ultimately and uh so the density 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:19.560 of the air decreases as a result the molecules are 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:24.960 moving apart. Now, this creates the movement of the less 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:29.880 dense air rising up while denser air cooler air sinks 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:32.400 down to take its place. You know, nature of horrors 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:35.000 of vacuums. So it's not like the warm air can 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:37.960 just rise up and nothing else happens, which is good 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:42.240 because otherwise we would not be here. Um. But this 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:47.600 movement is called the pressure gradient force. Now, over the oceans, 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:50.480 warm air also happens to have a lot of water 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:54.400 vapor in it. Huda thunk. Yeah, so waters evaporating it 0:06:54.440 --> 0:06:57.920 becomes part of the air here. And as warm air 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.599 and water vapor together right is up the vapor begins 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:05.719 to condense once it hits a certain temperature and then 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:10.200 you get storm clouds forming and eventually rain. Uh. Condensation, 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:13.040 by the way, releases heat as a byproduct. This is 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:16.280 not a big surprise. To form water vapor. We add 0:07:16.320 --> 0:07:20.960 heat to water. When water vapor becomes water, it releases 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:23.760 heat that that energy has to go somewhere we cannot 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:28.760 obviously create or destroy energy. Um Now, that's called the 0:07:28.840 --> 0:07:32.000 latent heat of condensation, and that heat warms the cool 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:34.880 air that's up at the top and causes that to rise, 0:07:35.200 --> 0:07:37.480 and that starts to create a vacuum effect that pulls 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:40.960 even more warm air from the surface up through this channel. 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:43.640 Right now, as this continues, more heat and water it 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:46.760 gets moved through the atmosphere, and this movement begins to 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:50.240 create a circular pattern of motion. So this is kind 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:52.320 of like what you see when you open up a 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.480 drain and you watch the water, you know, circled down 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:58.920 the drain, similar to that, but this one is actually 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:02.080 determined by the Coreo Less effect, whereas the drain water 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.920 is not. Well, yeah, I mean it, the Simpsons was wrong. Yeah, 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:09.400 there's a tendency, but it's but a drain is too 0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:12.560 small of a water system to be affected by exactly. 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:15.800 The Coriolis effect is real, and it is because of 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.800 the rotation of the Earth, but it generally only affects 0:08:18.920 --> 0:08:23.400 large systems, not not your toilet or the sink um 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:27.800 on the northern hemisphere, storms rotate counterclockwise. In the southern Hemisphere, 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:31.400 they rotate clockwise are as I once saw in a 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:33.559 set of instructions to build a fan. And I am 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:37.319 not making this up antique counter clockwise, which seems a 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:43.160 little very precise. Turn this anti counter clockwise really not 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:48.840 just clock uh So, then, also, especially near the equatorial 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:52.400 regions of the Earth, you have converging winds near the 0:08:52.400 --> 0:08:54.679 surface of the water. These are colliding with one another 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:57.920 and pushing even more warm air upward. This increases the 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.760 rotational speed of the storm. And strong winds at high 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:04.080 altitudes move the warm air out from the center, and 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:07.120 that's what becomes the eye of the storm. So you've 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:10.800 got this relatively calm area in the very center, and 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:14.480 then this sort of tumultuous area, especially the area right 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:17.319 around the center that the winds speeds there are at 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:22.200 their highest, but it then radiates outward. Um Now, if 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:26.640 you have different speeds of wind along these various elevations 0:09:26.640 --> 0:09:30.240 of the storm system, that's what's called wind shear. When 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:34.120 you have wind shear, it actually inhibits the growth of 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:36.640 a storm. So if you've got you know, winds from 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:40.320 the east, uh and and uh and north hitting at 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:42.800 one point at one speed, and they're hitting at a 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:46.679 totally different speed at a different elevation along that storm system. 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.440 It takes more energy for the storm system to grow, 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.800 and it's less likely to become a hurricane. UH. If 0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:55.080 all that air is all that wind is blowing at 0:09:55.120 --> 0:09:57.559 the same speed, then it's more likely to turn into 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:01.319 a hurricane and get stronger. Now Out, as that warm 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.520 air's moved from the center, cool air rushes down to 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:05.960 replace it. High pressure air is pulled into a low 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:09.280 pressure center. That increases the wind speed even more, and 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:12.080 that's when you start actually getting into the realm of 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:15.480 a hurricane. Now, only a few storms out in the 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:19.360 ocean ever reach hurricane status, like out of all of them. 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:22.520 If you're from a percentage basis, UH, it may be 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:24.480 that you might have a hurricane season where you have 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:28.560 an abnormally large number of hurricanes, but if you look 0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:31.360 at the overall number of storms, they'll still be relatively 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:35.120 small percentage um. Most storms tend to die out before 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:40.480 they reach that level. So here's the general categorization. UH. First, 0:10:40.480 --> 0:10:43.280 you've got the tropical depressions. This does not mean that 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:46.600 people in that area are starting to feel kind of gloomy. Well, 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:50.360 it's cloudy out, I suppose, yeah, it could be like man, 0:10:50.400 --> 0:10:53.920 I booked our vacation and it's just raining. No. Tropical 0:10:53.920 --> 0:10:56.719 depression are marked with wind speeds that are less than 0:10:56.760 --> 0:10:59.400 thirty eight miles per hour or around sixty one KOs 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:03.600 an hour. Then tropical depressions can grow into tropical storms. 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:06.680 Those have wind speeds that range between thirty nine and 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:10.000 seventy three miles per hour or sixty three two d 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:14.440 seventeen kilometers per hour. Tropical storms then can grow into hurricanes. Now, 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:18.120 your basic hurricane, like your Category one hurricane, has wind 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.439 speeds greater than seventy four miles per hour or a 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:23.839 hundred nineteen kilometers per hour. But we do classify hurricanes 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:27.640 here in the United States in five categories. Australia is 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.960 a little different, but US it's five categories. It's also 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:33.640 a five category system in Australia, but they use different criteria. 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:37.560 So Category one hurricane here in the US is the weakest. 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.240 They have wind speeds between seventy four and nine pur 0:11:40.520 --> 0:11:44.360 or a hundred nineteen hund fifty four kilometers an hour. Meanwhile, 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:46.000 if you go to the other side, of the scale. 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.880 A Category five storm, which is one you do not 0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:52.840 want to be in. It is with wind speeds greater 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:55.520 than a hundred fifty five miles per hour or two 0:11:55.559 --> 0:12:00.640 hundred fifty kilometers an hour. So the winds are bad, right, 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.839 the winds are incredibly damaging, but that's not necessarily the 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:07.720 most damaging part of a hurricane. In fact, that now 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:11.000 they are responsible for what could be the most damn 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:15.800 damaging part of a hurricane, but it's not a direct relationship. 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:20.160 We're talking about storm surge. So storm surge is where 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:24.040 you get it's water. Yeah, it's just it's just like 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:27.880 a wall, oh water. Storm surge is created because the 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:31.640 winds of the hurricane are pushing water outward from the center, 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:37.120 and that's where you get like an enormous mass of 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:40.320 water just coming in much higher than the normal sea level, 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:44.880 even high, much higher than the normal high tideline. So uh, 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:48.199 with this, you could say the more powerful hurricanes create 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.439 larger storm surge. Is not a big surprise. More wind 0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:56.160 pushes more water. So category one storm cut tends to 0:12:56.200 --> 0:13:00.200 cause about a four to five ft rise in the 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:03.200 sea level from the storm search, which is that is 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:05.840 significant depending upon if you live in a coastal city, 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:10.160 that could be incredibly significant. Category five has a storm 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:14.040 surge of greater than eighteen feet five and a half meters. 0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:18.760 That's a huge amount of water, and that's where you're 0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:22.200 getting into some really deadly territory. Yeah. And of course, 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:25.360 one of the things to remember is that the negative 0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:29.559 impact of a storm like a hurricane might not always 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:33.760 necessarily be just directly related to how powerful it is, 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:36.680 like how how fast the winds are or how high 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:39.200 the storm surge is. It can also be related to 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:43.040 where it hits and how well prepared the places it 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:47.120 hits are. Absolutely because like one place might get a 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:51.360 tougher hurricane, but it just might be better defended against herricane. 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:55.480 Higher sea walls are better construction material, or or even 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.640 things that are off the coast, like things like an 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:01.200 oyster bed can help slow down wave for nation. Uh. 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.800 In fact, New York City used to have very healthy 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:08.360 oyster beds outside of it used to being the operative term, 0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:11.160 have we eaten too many oysters? There were there's a 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:13.640 walrus in a carpdor that came through and things just 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:17.000 got ugly. Right a second, do people eat New York 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:19.520 City oysters. It was more that it was more that 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:24.560 things got destroyed, well just destroyed and construction trawling stuff 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.640 out and things like that. But the oyster menu New 0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:32.160 York City is finest oysters. You can really taste the brooklet. 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:35.920 I like New York City oysters before they were cool. 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:41.040 The conditions for hurricane formation are not everywhere. That's why 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:45.000 you don't see hurricanes all over the earth. We talked 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:48.600 about how in the equatorial region you have these converging winds. 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.320 That's one of the necessary features in order to have 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:55.200 hurricane formation. Another is that the water needs to be warm. 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:59.080 This this warm air and water vapor are key elements. Uh, 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:02.240 they are what fee eat into a hurricane's power. And 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.120 so you need water that's at least twenty seven degrees 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:08.720 celsius or about eight degrees fahrenheit in order for hurricanes 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.240 to actually form in the first place. This is why 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.200 we don't see hurricanes forming in like the northern Atlantic. 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.560 Oh yeah, this is why they happen in the around 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.680 the equator. Yeah. And as they move around, as they 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:24.200 start to encounter colder water or they hit land, then 0:15:24.560 --> 0:15:28.360 you start to cut off the process that feeds these hurricanes. 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.480 That warm water vapor is no longer present, So the 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:36.640 hurricane begins to dissipate it's it's energy starts to where 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:40.320 you know, it's not being constantly refitted. Yeah, it just dies. 0:15:40.880 --> 0:15:44.920 So the Hurricane Sandy that hit in New York, one 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.280 of the reasons why it was able to to be 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:49.560 such a powerful storm in the first place was that 0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:54.160 the water temperatures around that time were abnormally high, high 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:56.640 enough so that the storm had not lost a significant 0:15:56.640 --> 0:15:59.280 amount of power before it made landfall. It also was 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:02.840 what they called a hybrid storm. But that goes into 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:05.760 far more complex detail than I am prepared to talk 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:10.200 about on this podcast at any rate. That's the basic 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:14.480 rules of how a hurricane behaves. And that's like right now. 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:18.560 So now we have to transition into talking about what 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:22.520 about projecting forward? As we know that climate change is 0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:24.920 a thing, we know that it is happening and will 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:28.240 continue to happen particular point. We can't really stop it. 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:30.640 We can't stop it. What we can do is mitigate 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:33.640 how bad it will be, right we can We can 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:37.160 do that by limiting greenhouse gas emissions for example, and 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:41.200 other means, and we can try to mitigate the potential 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:45.840 effects of climate change exactly by making preparations in the 0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:49.760 places where it's most likely to have the Yeah, yeah, 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.200 because I mean there there's certain things of climate change 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:54.920 that are going to be a real issue for lots 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:57.960 of different people. In dry areas, it's likely to get 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:01.560 more dry. In areas that are of a tropical or 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:05.520 subtropical region, they might get much more rain than they 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:08.639 usually do. Uh, these are just general trends that we 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:12.800 may see. But what about hurricanes, Well, this is, like 0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:17.320 Joe says, really complicated. Right, So pretty much everybody agrees 0:17:17.440 --> 0:17:22.360 that climate change is going to do something the hurricane. 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:25.720 So they agree that it will change the conditions that 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:29.760 create hurricanes. But what's not exactly agreed upon is it 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:33.760 is exactly how they will change. Now, most of the 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.560 models that I have looked at have said that the 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:43.040 changes are going to include more intense hurricanes. Yeah, hurricanes 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:48.480 with stronger winds, greater sea surge, larger, they'll be um 0:17:49.680 --> 0:17:54.280 affecting larger areas. And if we see a rise in 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:58.240 ocean temperature, we're likely also to see a greater ranging 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:04.000 of hurricanes because the conditions will be more appropriate for 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:07.800 a hurricane to feed itself in a broader area than 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:10.360 it used to be. It will suddenly be balmy enough 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:14.280 and say Scotland to make it happen. Not suddenly, but 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:17.520 but Nessie, Nessie might find herself having a bit of 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:22.399 a rough day. I know. I've read differing opinions about 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:27.520 whether the frequency of hurricanes is going to go up down. Yeah, 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:31.520 this is one of those things. And generally speaking, most models, 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.200 not all, but most models suggest that we are going 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.200 to see fewer hurricanes form, but the ones that form 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:42.000 will be worse, like they'll be stronger. Um, most models do, 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.679 not all of them. Uh. So we know that we 0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:48.480 know that the temperature is going to affect hurricanes. We 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:50.679 know this change at sea level is really going to 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:53.800 affect hurricanes too, in the sense that it will affect 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:57.399 how they impact us. If sea levels continue to rise, 0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:01.280 which we expect they will, Uh, then coastal cities that 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:04.040 are already maybe just a few feet above sea level 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.439 are going to be more prone to damage in the 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:09.840 case of any kind of storm, not just a hurricane, 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:12.399 but any sort of tropical depression or tropical storm can 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.600 cut create enough of a sea surge to cause massive 0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:18.560 flooding in those areas, right, So if your city is, 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:21.840 you know, ten feet above sea level and see sea 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:26.680 levels rise five feet, that could still hurt you. Yeah, 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:29.879 you know. And and also you're going to start eroding 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:33.760 those those low coastal areas that help slow down hurricanes 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:36.520 in many places before they hit land. And even if 0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:39.400 you've built barriers, if the sea level rises, the sea 0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:41.879 level may raise rise above the barrier you built, in 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:44.440 which case there's not much of a help there. Uh So, 0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:48.560 getting back to frequency, like what Joe was saying, we 0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:51.760 do have these differing opinions, these differing models. I guess 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:54.159 I should say models, not opinions, because it's what the 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:58.480 computers are projecting. One expert in hurricanes, it's real bad 0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:02.040 science to just have opinions. You know, I don't like 0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:04.240 hurricane so I just don't think they're gonna happen anymore. 0:20:04.960 --> 0:20:08.280 It's not going to really help. Dr Kerry Emmanuel from 0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:11.480 m I T created a model that suggested climate change 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:15.520 would create more weak storms around the Category one to 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:19.480 two area and increase the intensity of stronger storms. So 0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:24.760 in other words, his model, yeah, it's a double whammy. 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:28.399 It's it's both we get more storms and more of 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:33.480 them will be stronger. Uh, that is not great news. Now, 0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:36.919 granted that's the one that's sort of it's almost of 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:40.400 a dissenting opinion than the other models. Right. The other 0:20:40.440 --> 0:20:44.800 models do suggest that we're going to probably see fewer hurricanes. 0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:47.119 One of the reasons is they predict more wind shear, 0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:51.040 and as I said earlier, more wind shear would inhibit 0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:54.359 the formation of storms. So the ones that do form 0:20:54.640 --> 0:20:59.640 could be incredibly intense, but there would be fewer in number. Um. 0:20:59.680 --> 0:21:03.800 So that one of the reasons. Another is that the 0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:06.960 differences in temperature between the polar regions and the equatorial 0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:09.920 regions help fuel some of the storms that then grow 0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:14.200 into hurricanes. And if that difference is decreased, because the 0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:16.960 polar regions are heating up, and we would expect the 0:21:17.000 --> 0:21:20.200 polar regions to heat up more dramatically than equatorial, we 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:23.479 would think the equatorial region would remain more or less 0:21:24.240 --> 0:21:26.679 the same temperature. It might increase a little bit, but 0:21:26.720 --> 0:21:28.520 not at the level. The colar regions are the ones. 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:30.960 They're going to increase the most, like the most dramatic 0:21:31.080 --> 0:21:33.480 change in the short term, short term being like a century. 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:38.680 Um it's a relative term, but that if we see 0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:41.560 that difference decrease, that might mean that we see fewer 0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:46.600 storms forming initially. So those are the ways that the 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:48.760 two models, and they're more than two, but those are 0:21:48.800 --> 0:21:52.520 the ways different models disagree on what can happen. But 0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:56.280 both appear to support the idea that the storms we 0:21:56.400 --> 0:22:00.359 get are gonna be doozies. They're gonna be pretty powerful. 0:22:00.480 --> 0:22:04.280 And we've been able to do some preliminary measurements but 0:22:04.440 --> 0:22:07.720 nothing that is conclusive yet. So, for instance, we know 0:22:07.960 --> 0:22:11.159 that ocean temperatures have increased slightly since nineteen eighty, by 0:22:11.280 --> 0:22:14.679 like point three degrees celsius, So the temperature has gone up. 0:22:14.760 --> 0:22:20.520 Now that predicts that hurricane wind strength should rise on 0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:24.040 average about a not more in strength and speed really, 0:22:24.840 --> 0:22:29.000 so one not faster than what they had been previous 0:22:29.600 --> 0:22:32.159 in the nineteen eighty numbers on average. But how do 0:22:32.280 --> 0:22:36.000 you measure how fast a hurricane? Well, you can do 0:22:36.080 --> 0:22:38.159 it through lots of things like satellite imagery. You can 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.399 do it through you can actually send measurement tools that 0:22:42.160 --> 0:22:44.159 if you wanted to do it with precision down to 0:22:44.240 --> 0:22:47.440 one knot No, you cannot. The margin of error is 0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:51.080 plus or minus five knots so the measurement here would 0:22:51.119 --> 0:22:54.879 be within the range of error. So we cannot determine 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:59.840 with any accuracy whether or not the prediction has come 0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:03.639 true because it hasn't been drastic enough for us to 0:23:03.720 --> 0:23:06.800 be able to definitively say, all right, this is outside 0:23:06.800 --> 0:23:10.439 the margin of error. We are sure that this is happening. Um. 0:23:10.680 --> 0:23:13.280 So that means it's a little too early for us 0:23:13.359 --> 0:23:17.359 to say through direct observation. But that being said, the 0:23:17.600 --> 0:23:20.080 information we do have shows that hurricanes appear to be 0:23:20.119 --> 0:23:23.200 strengthening faster than they have in the past. So maybe 0:23:23.840 --> 0:23:26.840 even if they're not stronger than they were, they're getting 0:23:26.960 --> 0:23:31.080 stronger faster. You mean, from the time of formation to 0:23:31.160 --> 0:23:34.280 the time they hit hit like category three or category four, 0:23:34.359 --> 0:23:36.720 it's taking less time for them to grow to those 0:23:36.840 --> 0:23:39.720 levels than it used to. Uh. So it's ogitionally, the 0:23:39.840 --> 0:23:42.440 hurricanes today are eating their wheedies, is what we're getting 0:23:42.480 --> 0:23:46.920 at um And so uh it was found according to 0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:51.040