Speaker 1: Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Welcome to
Speaker 1: Forward Thinking. Hey there, and welcome to Forward Thinking, the
Speaker 1: podcast that looks at the future and says, here, I
Speaker 1: am rock you like a hurricane. I'm Jonathan Strickland, I'm
Speaker 1: Lauren Vocal, so you will scorpions did before you. Joe
Speaker 1: is shaking his head. I am Joe McCormick. Today we
Speaker 1: are going to be talking about storms. Storms. Is that
Speaker 1: the topic? Yes, Well, specifically called when there's wind and
Speaker 1: water comes down from the sky, that's the storm apocalypse. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: we're gonna specifically talk about hurricanes today, the future of hurricanes,
Speaker 1: because we we You may have heard various climate change scientists, climatologists,
Speaker 1: and various computer scientists talking about models that are trying
Speaker 1: to predict what the world will be like in the
Speaker 1: future due to climate change. One of the things that
Speaker 1: always pops up is the discussion of hurricanes. So we
Speaker 1: wanted to kind of take that topic and explore what
Speaker 1: we know and what we don't know, talk about like
Speaker 1: what are we fairly certain about, what what sort of
Speaker 1: elements are really kind of just a best guest scenario. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it's worth pointing out as a disclaimer at
Speaker 1: the beginning of this episode that there seems to be
Speaker 1: a little bit less agreement here than on climate change generally.
Speaker 1: People sometimes seems to seem to confuse these two points.
Speaker 1: But just to reiterate something we've said on the show before,
Speaker 1: that the planet is warming. There's really no disputing, but
Speaker 1: exactly what the effects are going to be, or at
Speaker 1: least what some of the effects are going to be,
Speaker 1: is still being debated. Oh absolutely, because tracking trends is
Speaker 1: pretty easy data collection, but and by pretty easy, I
Speaker 1: mean ridiculously difficult to a global effort in this particular case.
Speaker 1: But but yeah, trying to figure out what that's going
Speaker 1: to do to global weather systems or very specific weather
Speaker 1: systems is whole that's that's a whole other separation. And
Speaker 1: we've not to say that we can't say anything interesting
Speaker 1: about is that that scientists can't create accurate models. I
Speaker 1: think that we very likely can. But just to establish
Speaker 1: at the beginning, this is not as settled as climate
Speaker 1: as climate change science in the general sense. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: And it's something that you'll if you if you read
Speaker 1: into it, it's something that the climatologists themselves will say upfront,
Speaker 1: usually like they talk about which model they're using, right,
Speaker 1: because they the models are doing their best to take
Speaker 1: as many factors into account to simulate what would actually
Speaker 1: happen in the real world as possible. But we've talked
Speaker 1: about it before how weather systems are notoriously complex and intricate,
Speaker 1: and we don't have a full understanding of how their
Speaker 1: systems work on a on you know, like on a
Speaker 1: on a part where we can actually definitively say here's
Speaker 1: what is going to happen. Here is when it will happen. Yeah,
Speaker 1: But with all those qualifications in mind, I think it
Speaker 1: would be really interesting to talk about what scientists are
Speaker 1: saying about what the storms of the future are going
Speaker 1: to are gonna look like. Yeah, So going with hurricanes,
Speaker 1: let's talk about, you know, laying down the groundwork so
Speaker 1: we understand what we're what we're saying when we when
Speaker 1: we actually use the word hurricane. Uh. I think most
Speaker 1: of us have an idea of what that is, especially
Speaker 1: those of us who live along the East coast of
Speaker 1: the United States, but the word cyclone is also often used.
Speaker 1: Previous Florida resident, Yeah, someone who you know, I've certainly
Speaker 1: seen my share of of weather effects that came to
Speaker 1: us courtesy of a hurricane. Of course, Atlanta is so
Speaker 1: far inland that we don't get the uh, the brunt
Speaker 1: of any sort of hurricane hitting landfall, but we definitely
Speaker 1: get the storms that are a result of that. Oh. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's interesting if you've never lived in a part of
Speaker 1: the world that gets tropical cyclones, you know, hurricanes whatever,
Speaker 1: coming in. It's it's interesting to see the dregs of
Speaker 1: a hurricane. They come through here all the time. Somebody
Speaker 1: else south of us got hit really hard, and we
Speaker 1: just get a bad rainstorm pretty much. And of course,
Speaker 1: you know, recently we've seen hurricanes, Like recently, as in
Speaker 1: the last five years, we've seen hurricanes hit some places
Speaker 1: that normally don't see much hurricane activity at all, like
Speaker 1: New York City, because the storm generally will disperse before
Speaker 1: it ever gets there. Yeah, So let's talk about what
Speaker 1: is going on with hurricane formation and why they disperse
Speaker 1: when they get to certain areas. First, we have to
Speaker 1: talk about atmospheric pressure, right, So when the atmospheric pressure
Speaker 1: reaches a certain level, the goddess of the equatorial Ocean
Speaker 1: becomes very angry, you know, I was hoping that by
Speaker 1: forbidding the mystical acts from the studio we would avoid
Speaker 1: such things, but apparently there's just no stopping you joke. Wait,
Speaker 1: are you saying that the weather is caused by physical forces?
Speaker 1: It is, in fact caused by physical forces, and not
Speaker 1: those that emanate from some soggy guitar to the bottom
Speaker 1: of the ocean. I've been misinformed. Will please enlighten me, Johnathan.
Speaker 1: So atmosphere has weight, right, It's as we say, I
Speaker 1: feel like about once a week on the show, like
Speaker 1: the air is not thin. It is soup. Yes, it
Speaker 1: is soup, and that means that the soup towards the
Speaker 1: bottom is being squished by all the soup at the top. Right, So,
Speaker 1: the air towards the bottom of towards the surface near
Speaker 1: the surface of the Earth, whether it's land or ocean,
Speaker 1: is being compressed by the air molecules that are higher up,
Speaker 1: and the air closer to the surface is being warmed
Speaker 1: not directly by the sun, but rather through the heat
Speaker 1: that is emanating from the warmed land mass in ocean water,
Speaker 1: So the sun warms the water and the land, and
Speaker 1: it radiates the heat back up into the air. Right.
Speaker 1: So then as air heats up, the molecules that make
Speaker 1: up the air start to move apart from one another.
Speaker 1: They start getting active, right. The molecular activity increases, that
Speaker 1: is what heat is ultimately and uh so the density
Speaker 1: of the air decreases as a result the molecules are
Speaker 1: moving apart. Now, this creates the movement of the less
Speaker 1: dense air rising up while denser air cooler air sinks
Speaker 1: down to take its place. You know, nature of horrors
Speaker 1: of vacuums. So it's not like the warm air can
Speaker 1: just rise up and nothing else happens, which is good
Speaker 1: because otherwise we would not be here. Um. But this
Speaker 1: movement is called the pressure gradient force. Now, over the oceans,
Speaker 1: warm air also happens to have a lot of water
Speaker 1: vapor in it. Huda thunk. Yeah, so waters evaporating it
Speaker 1: becomes part of the air here. And as warm air
Speaker 1: and water vapor together right is up the vapor begins
Speaker 1: to condense once it hits a certain temperature and then
Speaker 1: you get storm clouds forming and eventually rain. Uh. Condensation,
Speaker 1: by the way, releases heat as a byproduct. This is
Speaker 1: not a big surprise. To form water vapor. We add
Speaker 1: heat to water. When water vapor becomes water, it releases
Speaker 1: heat that that energy has to go somewhere we cannot
Speaker 1: obviously create or destroy energy. Um Now, that's called the
Speaker 1: latent heat of condensation, and that heat warms the cool
Speaker 1: air that's up at the top and causes that to rise,
Speaker 1: and that starts to create a vacuum effect that pulls
Speaker 1: even more warm air from the surface up through this channel.
Speaker 1: Right now, as this continues, more heat and water it
Speaker 1: gets moved through the atmosphere, and this movement begins to
Speaker 1: create a circular pattern of motion. So this is kind
Speaker 1: of like what you see when you open up a
Speaker 1: drain and you watch the water, you know, circled down
Speaker 1: the drain, similar to that, but this one is actually
Speaker 1: determined by the Coreo Less effect, whereas the drain water
Speaker 1: is not. Well, yeah, I mean it, the Simpsons was wrong. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's a tendency, but it's but a drain is too
Speaker 1: small of a water system to be affected by exactly.
Speaker 1: The Coriolis effect is real, and it is because of
Speaker 1: the rotation of the Earth, but it generally only affects
Speaker 1: large systems, not not your toilet or the sink um
Speaker 1: on the northern hemisphere, storms rotate counterclockwise. In the southern Hemisphere,
Speaker 1: they rotate clockwise are as I once saw in a
Speaker 1: set of instructions to build a fan. And I am
Speaker 1: not making this up antique counter clockwise, which seems a
Speaker 1: little very precise. Turn this anti counter clockwise really not
Speaker 1: just clock uh So, then, also, especially near the equatorial
Speaker 1: regions of the Earth, you have converging winds near the
Speaker 1: surface of the water. These are colliding with one another
Speaker 1: and pushing even more warm air upward. This increases the
Speaker 1: rotational speed of the storm. And strong winds at high
Speaker 1: altitudes move the warm air out from the center, and
Speaker 1: that's what becomes the eye of the storm. So you've
Speaker 1: got this relatively calm area in the very center, and
Speaker 1: then this sort of tumultuous area, especially the area right
Speaker 1: around the center that the winds speeds there are at
Speaker 1: their highest, but it then radiates outward. Um Now, if
Speaker 1: you have different speeds of wind along these various elevations
Speaker 1: of the storm system, that's what's called wind shear. When
Speaker 1: you have wind shear, it actually inhibits the growth of
Speaker 1: a storm. So if you've got you know, winds from
Speaker 1: the east, uh and and uh and north hitting at
Speaker 1: one point at one speed, and they're hitting at a
Speaker 1: totally different speed at a different elevation along that storm system.
Speaker 1: It takes more energy for the storm system to grow,
Speaker 1: and it's less likely to become a hurricane. UH. If
Speaker 1: all that air is all that wind is blowing at
Speaker 1: the same speed, then it's more likely to turn into
Speaker 1: a hurricane and get stronger. Now Out, as that warm
Speaker 1: air's moved from the center, cool air rushes down to
Speaker 1: replace it. High pressure air is pulled into a low
Speaker 1: pressure center. That increases the wind speed even more, and
Speaker 1: that's when you start actually getting into the realm of
Speaker 1: a hurricane. Now, only a few storms out in the
Speaker 1: ocean ever reach hurricane status, like out of all of them.
Speaker 1: If you're from a percentage basis, UH, it may be
Speaker 1: that you might have a hurricane season where you have
Speaker 1: an abnormally large number of hurricanes, but if you look
Speaker 1: at the overall number of storms, they'll still be relatively
Speaker 1: small percentage um. Most storms tend to die out before
Speaker 1: they reach that level. So here's the general categorization. UH. First,
Speaker 1: you've got the tropical depressions. This does not mean that
Speaker 1: people in that area are starting to feel kind of gloomy. Well,
Speaker 1: it's cloudy out, I suppose, yeah, it could be like man,
Speaker 1: I booked our vacation and it's just raining. No. Tropical
Speaker 1: depression are marked with wind speeds that are less than
Speaker 1: thirty eight miles per hour or around sixty one KOs
Speaker 1: an hour. Then tropical depressions can grow into tropical storms.
Speaker 1: Those have wind speeds that range between thirty nine and
Speaker 1: seventy three miles per hour or sixty three two d
Speaker 1: seventeen kilometers per hour. Tropical storms then can grow into hurricanes. Now,
Speaker 1: your basic hurricane, like your Category one hurricane, has wind
Speaker 1: speeds greater than seventy four miles per hour or a
Speaker 1: hundred nineteen kilometers per hour. But we do classify hurricanes
Speaker 1: here in the United States in five categories. Australia is
Speaker 1: a little different, but US it's five categories. It's also
Speaker 1: a five category system in Australia, but they use different criteria.
Speaker 1: So Category one hurricane here in the US is the weakest.
Speaker 1: They have wind speeds between seventy four and nine pur
Speaker 1: or a hundred nineteen hund fifty four kilometers an hour. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: if you go to the other side, of the scale.
Speaker 1: A Category five storm, which is one you do not
Speaker 1: want to be in. It is with wind speeds greater
Speaker 1: than a hundred fifty five miles per hour or two
Speaker 1: hundred fifty kilometers an hour. So the winds are bad, right,
Speaker 1: the winds are incredibly damaging, but that's not necessarily the
Speaker 1: most damaging part of a hurricane. In fact, that now
Speaker 1: they are responsible for what could be the most damn
Speaker 1: damaging part of a hurricane, but it's not a direct relationship.
Speaker 1: We're talking about storm surge. So storm surge is where
Speaker 1: you get it's water. Yeah, it's just it's just like
Speaker 1: a wall, oh water. Storm surge is created because the
Speaker 1: winds of the hurricane are pushing water outward from the center,
Speaker 1: and that's where you get like an enormous mass of
Speaker 1: water just coming in much higher than the normal sea level,
Speaker 1: even high, much higher than the normal high tideline. So uh,
Speaker 1: with this, you could say the more powerful hurricanes create
Speaker 1: larger storm surge. Is not a big surprise. More wind
Speaker 1: pushes more water. So category one storm cut tends to
Speaker 1: cause about a four to five ft rise in the
Speaker 1: sea level from the storm search, which is that is
Speaker 1: significant depending upon if you live in a coastal city,
Speaker 1: that could be incredibly significant. Category five has a storm
Speaker 1: surge of greater than eighteen feet five and a half meters.
Speaker 1: That's a huge amount of water, and that's where you're
Speaker 1: getting into some really deadly territory. Yeah. And of course,
Speaker 1: one of the things to remember is that the negative
Speaker 1: impact of a storm like a hurricane might not always
Speaker 1: necessarily be just directly related to how powerful it is,
Speaker 1: like how how fast the winds are or how high
Speaker 1: the storm surge is. It can also be related to
Speaker 1: where it hits and how well prepared the places it
Speaker 1: hits are. Absolutely because like one place might get a
Speaker 1: tougher hurricane, but it just might be better defended against herricane.
Speaker 1: Higher sea walls are better construction material, or or even
Speaker 1: things that are off the coast, like things like an
Speaker 1: oyster bed can help slow down wave for nation. Uh.
Speaker 1: In fact, New York City used to have very healthy
Speaker 1: oyster beds outside of it used to being the operative term,
Speaker 1: have we eaten too many oysters? There were there's a
Speaker 1: walrus in a carpdor that came through and things just
Speaker 1: got ugly. Right a second, do people eat New York
Speaker 1: City oysters. It was more that it was more that
Speaker 1: things got destroyed, well just destroyed and construction trawling stuff
Speaker 1: out and things like that. But the oyster menu New
Speaker 1: York City is finest oysters. You can really taste the brooklet.
Speaker 1: I like New York City oysters before they were cool.
Speaker 1: The conditions for hurricane formation are not everywhere. That's why
Speaker 1: you don't see hurricanes all over the earth. We talked
Speaker 1: about how in the equatorial region you have these converging winds.
Speaker 1: That's one of the necessary features in order to have
Speaker 1: hurricane formation. Another is that the water needs to be warm.
Speaker 1: This this warm air and water vapor are key elements. Uh,
Speaker 1: they are what fee eat into a hurricane's power. And
Speaker 1: so you need water that's at least twenty seven degrees
Speaker 1: celsius or about eight degrees fahrenheit in order for hurricanes
Speaker 1: to actually form in the first place. This is why
Speaker 1: we don't see hurricanes forming in like the northern Atlantic.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, this is why they happen in the around
Speaker 1: the equator. Yeah. And as they move around, as they
Speaker 1: start to encounter colder water or they hit land, then
Speaker 1: you start to cut off the process that feeds these hurricanes.
Speaker 1: That warm water vapor is no longer present, So the
Speaker 1: hurricane begins to dissipate it's it's energy starts to where
Speaker 1: you know, it's not being constantly refitted. Yeah, it just dies.
Speaker 1: So the Hurricane Sandy that hit in New York, one
Speaker 1: of the reasons why it was able to to be
Speaker 1: such a powerful storm in the first place was that
Speaker 1: the water temperatures around that time were abnormally high, high
Speaker 1: enough so that the storm had not lost a significant
Speaker 1: amount of power before it made landfall. It also was
Speaker 1: what they called a hybrid storm. But that goes into
Speaker 1: far more complex detail than I am prepared to talk
Speaker 1: about on this podcast at any rate. That's the basic
Speaker 1: rules of how a hurricane behaves. And that's like right now.
Speaker 1: So now we have to transition into talking about what
Speaker 1: about projecting forward? As we know that climate change is
Speaker 1: a thing, we know that it is happening and will
Speaker 1: continue to happen particular point. We can't really stop it.
Speaker 1: We can't stop it. What we can do is mitigate
Speaker 1: how bad it will be, right we can We can
Speaker 1: do that by limiting greenhouse gas emissions for example, and
Speaker 1: other means, and we can try to mitigate the potential
Speaker 1: effects of climate change exactly by making preparations in the
Speaker 1: places where it's most likely to have the Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: because I mean there there's certain things of climate change
Speaker 1: that are going to be a real issue for lots
Speaker 1: of different people. In dry areas, it's likely to get
Speaker 1: more dry. In areas that are of a tropical or
Speaker 1: subtropical region, they might get much more rain than they
Speaker 1: usually do. Uh, these are just general trends that we
Speaker 1: may see. But what about hurricanes, Well, this is, like
Speaker 1: Joe says, really complicated. Right, So pretty much everybody agrees
Speaker 1: that climate change is going to do something the hurricane.
Speaker 1: So they agree that it will change the conditions that
Speaker 1: create hurricanes. But what's not exactly agreed upon is it
Speaker 1: is exactly how they will change. Now, most of the
Speaker 1: models that I have looked at have said that the
Speaker 1: changes are going to include more intense hurricanes. Yeah, hurricanes
Speaker 1: with stronger winds, greater sea surge, larger, they'll be um
Speaker 1: affecting larger areas. And if we see a rise in
Speaker 1: ocean temperature, we're likely also to see a greater ranging
Speaker 1: of hurricanes because the conditions will be more appropriate for
Speaker 1: a hurricane to feed itself in a broader area than
Speaker 1: it used to be. It will suddenly be balmy enough
Speaker 1: and say Scotland to make it happen. Not suddenly, but
Speaker 1: but Nessie, Nessie might find herself having a bit of
Speaker 1: a rough day. I know. I've read differing opinions about
Speaker 1: whether the frequency of hurricanes is going to go up down. Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is one of those things. And generally speaking, most models,
Speaker 1: not all, but most models suggest that we are going
Speaker 1: to see fewer hurricanes form, but the ones that form
Speaker 1: will be worse, like they'll be stronger. Um, most models do,
Speaker 1: not all of them. Uh. So we know that we
Speaker 1: know that the temperature is going to affect hurricanes. We
Speaker 1: know this change at sea level is really going to
Speaker 1: affect hurricanes too, in the sense that it will affect
Speaker 1: how they impact us. If sea levels continue to rise,
Speaker 1: which we expect they will, Uh, then coastal cities that
Speaker 1: are already maybe just a few feet above sea level
Speaker 1: are going to be more prone to damage in the
Speaker 1: case of any kind of storm, not just a hurricane,
Speaker 1: but any sort of tropical depression or tropical storm can
Speaker 1: cut create enough of a sea surge to cause massive
Speaker 1: flooding in those areas, right, So if your city is,
Speaker 1: you know, ten feet above sea level and see sea
Speaker 1: levels rise five feet, that could still hurt you. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know. And and also you're going to start eroding
Speaker 1: those those low coastal areas that help slow down hurricanes
Speaker 1: in many places before they hit land. And even if
Speaker 1: you've built barriers, if the sea level rises, the sea
Speaker 1: level may raise rise above the barrier you built, in
Speaker 1: which case there's not much of a help there. Uh So,
Speaker 1: getting back to frequency, like what Joe was saying, we
Speaker 1: do have these differing opinions, these differing models. I guess
Speaker 1: I should say models, not opinions, because it's what the
Speaker 1: computers are projecting. One expert in hurricanes, it's real bad
Speaker 1: science to just have opinions. You know, I don't like
Speaker 1: hurricane so I just don't think they're gonna happen anymore.
Speaker 1: It's not going to really help. Dr Kerry Emmanuel from
Speaker 1: m I T created a model that suggested climate change
Speaker 1: would create more weak storms around the Category one to
Speaker 1: two area and increase the intensity of stronger storms. So
Speaker 1: in other words, his model, yeah, it's a double whammy.
Speaker 1: It's it's both we get more storms and more of
Speaker 1: them will be stronger. Uh, that is not great news. Now,
Speaker 1: granted that's the one that's sort of it's almost of
Speaker 1: a dissenting opinion than the other models. Right. The other
Speaker 1: models do suggest that we're going to probably see fewer hurricanes.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons is they predict more wind shear,
Speaker 1: and as I said earlier, more wind shear would inhibit
Speaker 1: the formation of storms. So the ones that do form
Speaker 1: could be incredibly intense, but there would be fewer in number. Um.
Speaker 1: So that one of the reasons. Another is that the
Speaker 1: differences in temperature between the polar regions and the equatorial
Speaker 1: regions help fuel some of the storms that then grow
Speaker 1: into hurricanes. And if that difference is decreased, because the
Speaker 1: polar regions are heating up, and we would expect the
Speaker 1: polar regions to heat up more dramatically than equatorial, we
Speaker 1: would think the equatorial region would remain more or less
Speaker 1: the same temperature. It might increase a little bit, but
Speaker 1: not at the level. The colar regions are the ones.
Speaker 1: They're going to increase the most, like the most dramatic
Speaker 1: change in the short term, short term being like a century.
Speaker 1: Um it's a relative term, but that if we see
Speaker 1: that difference decrease, that might mean that we see fewer
Speaker 1: storms forming initially. So those are the ways that the
Speaker 1: two models, and they're more than two, but those are
Speaker 1: the ways different models disagree on what can happen. But
Speaker 1: both appear to support the idea that the storms we
Speaker 1: get are gonna be doozies. They're gonna be pretty powerful.
Speaker 1: And we've been able to do some preliminary measurements but
Speaker 1: nothing that is conclusive yet. So, for instance, we know
Speaker 1: that ocean temperatures have increased slightly since nineteen eighty, by
Speaker 1: like point three degrees celsius, So the temperature has gone up.
Speaker 1: Now that predicts that hurricane wind strength should rise on
Speaker 1: average about a not more in strength and speed really,
Speaker 1: so one not faster than what they had been previous
Speaker 1: in the nineteen eighty numbers on average. But how do
Speaker 1: you measure how fast a hurricane? Well, you can do
Speaker 1: it through lots of things like satellite imagery. You can
Speaker 1: do it through you can actually send measurement tools that
Speaker 1: if you wanted to do it with precision down to
Speaker 1: one knot No, you cannot. The margin of error is
Speaker 1: plus or minus five knots so the measurement here would
Speaker 1: be within the range of error. So we cannot determine
Speaker 1: with any accuracy whether or not the prediction has come
Speaker 1: true because it hasn't been drastic enough for us to
Speaker 1: be able to definitively say, all right, this is outside
Speaker 1: the margin of error. We are sure that this is happening. Um.
Speaker 1: So that means it's a little too early for us
Speaker 1: to say through direct observation. But that being said, the
Speaker 1: information we do have shows that hurricanes appear to be
Speaker 1: strengthening faster than they have in the past. So maybe
Speaker 1: even if they're not stronger than they were, they're getting
Speaker 1: stronger faster. You mean, from the time of formation to
Speaker 1: the time they hit hit like category three or category four,
Speaker 1: it's taking less time for them to grow to those
Speaker 1: levels than it used to. Uh. So it's ogitionally, the
Speaker 1: hurricanes today are eating their wheedies, is what we're getting
Speaker 1: at um And so uh it was found according to
Speaker 1: NASA that uh, some researchers discovered that storms were attaining
Speaker 1: category three wind speeds nearly nine hours faster than they
Speaker 1: did back in nineteen eighty which is significant. Oh yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's every hour counts, especially when you're trying to prepare
Speaker 1: a population for that kind of incoming storm, right, and
Speaker 1: and and keep in mind also that we only are
Speaker 1: able to predict potential pathways the storm will follow. We
Speaker 1: know the general direction that they'll follow. But that means
Speaker 1: if you've ever lived in a coastal area and you've
Speaker 1: seen those projection paths, you see it's like a it's
Speaker 1: like a triangle that starts from the storm and then
Speaker 1: and then broadens out. It's a cone of anxiety. Really,
Speaker 1: it's it's just horrifying, like like lying vaguely within that code,
Speaker 1: going like, well, this could anything could happen. Really, Now,
Speaker 1: if your city is dead center in the middle of
Speaker 1: that cone, you've got a real good chance of being
Speaker 1: hit by that hurricane, whether it's head on or by
Speaker 1: the edge or whatever. Now, we've also seen that global
Speaker 1: wind speeds have increased over the last twenty years by
Speaker 1: five percent, So that also suggests that hurricanes may be
Speaker 1: getting stronger faster, because wind plays such a big part
Speaker 1: in hurricanes. But without the direct observation to back up
Speaker 1: that that or that prediction, we can't say for sure.
Speaker 1: And as good science dictates, you want to measure, you
Speaker 1: want to be able to replicate. You want to make
Speaker 1: sure that your observations in fact represent as close to
Speaker 1: reality as we can possibly get. So it would be
Speaker 1: irresponsible for us to say, yes, hurricanes have definitely gotten
Speaker 1: stronger over the last twenty five years. It just the
Speaker 1: data seems to be pointing us in that direction, but
Speaker 1: we don't have the definitive answer yet. Now we may
Speaker 1: also see stuff like the jet streams actually being affected,
Speaker 1: so in other words, the massive UH currents. Essentially, this
Speaker 1: this this pathway that tends to dictate which way hurricanes go.
Speaker 1: That could change. It could slow down, which would mean
Speaker 1: the hurricane would spend longer out in the warm areas
Speaker 1: of the ocean, building up stronger and stronger before continuing
Speaker 1: in to hit you know, land mass or colder water,
Speaker 1: which means they could have even more energy than we've
Speaker 1: ever calculated for as a result. So that's a possibility.
Speaker 1: So this is this all sounds kind of scary. Uh,
Speaker 1: You get scarier once you start to look at who's
Speaker 1: at risk. Obviously, if you live in Nebraska, you're probably
Speaker 1: not too worried about hurricanes. Well, you might be worried
Speaker 1: about some other effects of climate change, such as maybe
Speaker 1: drought or something like, right, and we and we don't.
Speaker 1: We don't know how climate change might affect things like tornadoes,
Speaker 1: for example. It may or may not, we don't know.
Speaker 1: I think I was reading earlier today that there's no
Speaker 1: evidence so far that climate change has an effect on tornadoes,
Speaker 1: but that that was just one thing I read. It
Speaker 1: could be disputed by others, right, it's it's it's one
Speaker 1: of those things. Well, from one thing, we we don't
Speaker 1: know what we don't know. And it may very well
Speaker 1: be that climate change has no meaningful impact on the
Speaker 1: number or intensity of tornadoes that we'll see. It's quite possible.
Speaker 1: But we have seen some studies about who would most
Speaker 1: likely be affected by hurricanes in a negative way. Not
Speaker 1: just not just most likely to be hit by a hurricane,
Speaker 1: but if a hurricane did hit, which cities would suffer
Speaker 1: the most damage in a in a monetary sense. So
Speaker 1: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or o e
Speaker 1: c d crunched the numbers back in two thousand thirteen
Speaker 1: to figure out which coastal cities are most at risk
Speaker 1: due to rising sea levels and intense storms. Guang Shao,
Speaker 1: which is a port city northwest of Hong Kong tap
Speaker 1: the list, but there were other cities that were on
Speaker 1: it like Miami, New York City, New Orleans, Mumbai, Nagoya, Tampa, Boston, Shinzhen,
Speaker 1: and Osaka. We're all on that list. And this is
Speaker 1: this is essentially saying, these are the cities that, if
Speaker 1: they were hit by a hurricane, would suffer the most
Speaker 1: damages monetarily, like, yeah, it's not um it's not measuring
Speaker 1: the strength of hurricanes that could potentially hit there, just
Speaker 1: the fact that if they do get hit kind of
Speaker 1: it all. Yeah, exactly, it's they could have miss to lose.
Speaker 1: It's like saying, you know, if this city were hit
Speaker 1: by an earthquake, this is how much and and it
Speaker 1: was an earthquake of a significant string, this is how
Speaker 1: much damage would happen Because they don't prepare for earthquakes
Speaker 1: structurally prepared, right exactly exactly. Yeah. So they also looked
Speaker 1: at comparing the the expense of damages to the g
Speaker 1: d P of these various cities, the gross domestic product
Speaker 1: of these cities, which, by the way, if you want
Speaker 1: to learn more about GDP, how stuff works as a
Speaker 1: video about it, Yeah, you can go to brain Stuff
Speaker 1: show dot com and find an excellent video that Jonathan hosted,
Speaker 1: and did did you write that one? Joe? Joe? Well,
Speaker 1: there you go. Yeah, and so two of them yeah
Speaker 1: we we and and Lauren was there, so probably she is.
Speaker 1: She is. She makes sure that I say the words
Speaker 1: that Joe wrote because otherwise I go off script and
Speaker 1: terrible things happened. So when we look at the comparison
Speaker 1: of damages to g d P, the the list changes
Speaker 1: up a little bit. Guang Shu is still top of
Speaker 1: the list, but New Orleans is on there as well,
Speaker 1: but there's also guayan Quild from Ecuador. I apologized, by
Speaker 1: the way before mangling the pronunciation of these cities ho
Speaker 1: Chi Minh City, um Abba, Johan jan Jing, Mumbai, cool
Speaker 1: Now which is in Bangladesh, Palm Bang which is in Indonesia,
Speaker 1: and shin Zhen. We're all at the top of that list.
Speaker 1: So essentially, these are the cities that could least afford
Speaker 1: this sort of disaster. And you know, Guang Show was
Speaker 1: on the both lists, So that's that's rough. Um. Now,
Speaker 1: the cities that are predicted to have the greatest increase
Speaker 1: of risk of flooding are those that currently have a
Speaker 1: low risk of flooding. And the reason for that is
Speaker 1: these are cities that have not invested in infrastructure that
Speaker 1: would be protective against flooding from sea search because traditionally
Speaker 1: they haven't been in the pathway of hurricanes. But as
Speaker 1: we've said, one of the consequences of this climate change
Speaker 1: is that we're going to see more cities that traditionally
Speaker 1: would not really be in the path of a hurricane
Speaker 1: potentially find themselves smack dab in the middle of one.
Speaker 1: So those cities included Alexandria in Egypt, Baron Kila in Colombia,
Speaker 1: Naples in Italy, and Sapporo in Japan, and Center Domingo
Speaker 1: in the Dominican Republic. So those are all cities that
Speaker 1: could potentially suffer severe flooding, uh, largely because they are
Speaker 1: unprepared for it. And you know, again, if you live
Speaker 1: in a place where a natural disaster rarely, if ever occurs,
Speaker 1: it doesn't seem to make any sense to prepare for it.
Speaker 1: Right Like here in Atlanta, we do live not that
Speaker 1: far from a fault line, but we rarely get an
Speaker 1: earthquake that's even strong enough for us to feel like
Speaker 1: earthquakes do happen but we almost never feel them. I
Speaker 1: think there have been two that were, you know, of
Speaker 1: a great enough magnitude to notice. Since I've lived in
Speaker 1: Atlanta and that's been like twenty years. So it wouldn't
Speaker 1: make sense for us to build everything in Atlanta to
Speaker 1: withstand massive earthquakes. It just doesn't happen. Same sort of
Speaker 1: thing for cities that traditionally have not been in the
Speaker 1: path of hurricanes. Um we all. I've also looked at
Speaker 1: some other lists. Accu weather actually looked at They looked
Speaker 1: at it a different way. They looked at the cities
Speaker 1: that are most likely to be affected by a hurricane
Speaker 1: in any given hurricane season. They actually had it by
Speaker 1: a percentage of how likely within a hurricane season any
Speaker 1: of these individual cities would be hit and looking just
Speaker 1: here in the US, just here in the U S
Speaker 1: actually just here on the US and on the East coast.
Speaker 1: So the top five were Miami and Key West, both
Speaker 1: in Florida, Cape Hatteras which is in North Carolina, Tampa
Speaker 1: back in Florida, and New Orleans. So these would be
Speaker 1: the places that statistically are most likely to be hit
Speaker 1: by hurricanes simply because of the path that hurricanes currently
Speaker 1: take um So, if you look at those two lists
Speaker 1: with Miami being at risk, it's been identified as being
Speaker 1: at risk for lots and lots of damage. Like they
Speaker 1: they've not been hit by a massive hurricane in a while,
Speaker 1: but that's that's a warning sign because they're also one
Speaker 1: of the more likely cities to be hit. So those
Speaker 1: two in combination, plus rising sea levels and increased hurricane intensity,
Speaker 1: tell you that the people of Miami have some big
Speaker 1: concerns about this. Um So, obviously it's time to start
Speaker 1: thinking about ways to prepare and solutions. Yeah, and and
Speaker 1: sadly there are no easy answers. Well, I've got one.
Speaker 1: I think it's pretty good. Okay, Yeah, I think we're
Speaker 1: we're as a country, pretty good at claiming we're going
Speaker 1: to build a wall. So I think we should build
Speaker 1: a wall along the southern and eastern coast of the
Speaker 1: United States that stretches up to the top of the atmosphere,
Speaker 1: and then that would just block top of the atmosphere,
Speaker 1: and that would just block any incoming storm. The shade
Speaker 1: from that would be phenomenal. Uh. Yeah, that's not likely
Speaker 1: to happen because it I can't imagine it being physically
Speaker 1: possible for us to build a structure of such height.
Speaker 1: Where's your can do attitude joke? And they can don't
Speaker 1: for that one. The plus, obviously there'd be way too
Speaker 1: many problems with that, clearly. I mean, first of all,
Speaker 1: just redirecting all the flights. Look, if I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: to Mexico, I don't want my flight to Atlanta to
Speaker 1: have to take me all the way through like Oregon,
Speaker 1: so I can get around this wall. Um. The the
Speaker 1: sea walls are something that that cities do build in
Speaker 1: order to protect against sea surge and things like that.
Speaker 1: Massive waves of sea barriers are are a known UH
Speaker 1: solution to these problems, but they are temporary solutions, particularly
Speaker 1: in the era of sea levels on the rise. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So imagine you're in a coastal city and you're in
Speaker 1: one of these danger zones where the sea levels are
Speaker 1: expected to come up to where they might be sloshing
Speaker 1: in on your town, and the local solution is, well,
Speaker 1: we're going to build some sea walls. Doesn't That doesn't
Speaker 1: keep the water from slashing up on your town, right,
Speaker 1: That's not very reassuring. No, the sea walls are great
Speaker 1: for protecting against sea surges. If the sea level itself
Speaker 1: is is, you know, not going to be on the rise.
Speaker 1: It sounds like a temporary solution. Is a temporary solution.
Speaker 1: It's one of the ones that New York City when, uh,
Speaker 1: in the wake of Sandy, they were looking at ways
Speaker 1: to prepare in case this should ever happen again, and
Speaker 1: sea walls were one of the things they were talking about.
Speaker 1: But a lot of experts were saying, you know, guys,
Speaker 1: this is at best a temporary solution that will just
Speaker 1: stave off any massive disaster for the short term, but
Speaker 1: it's not a long term fix. And if that means
Speaker 1: that we procrastinate, that we don't adopt tougher but more
Speaker 1: realistic solutions, then we're just inviting disaster further down the line. Well,
Speaker 1: so what's a what's a realistic solution for something like this?
Speaker 1: I mean, we can't none of our Babba yaga. We
Speaker 1: can't just like put chicken legs on our hut and
Speaker 1: raise it up in case of danger. That's an excellence.
Speaker 1: I'm so glad you made that reference. Babba yaga. Uh. Well,
Speaker 1: elevating buildings is one of the ones. One of the
Speaker 1: things that people have suggested. Now granted, that does not
Speaker 1: work in a super dense urban environment like New York City, Right,
Speaker 1: you can't expect to suddenly be able to raise everything up.
Speaker 1: Like even if you were to say, all, right, here's
Speaker 1: the deal, all of your front street entrances are now
Speaker 1: going to be a third floor basement, and we're going
Speaker 1: to move all the entrances up to We're gonna go
Speaker 1: up several floors. That's gonna be your front door, and
Speaker 1: we're gonna build up from there so that we have
Speaker 1: effectively grown higher than what the sea level is. That
Speaker 1: is maybe a solution for some communities, but not for
Speaker 1: a place like New York City, where you've got millions
Speaker 1: and millions of people who would be displaced by that
Speaker 1: kind of action. But but it mostly refers to like
Speaker 1: making sure you have things like park space and and
Speaker 1: other things that are right along the coastline as opposed
Speaker 1: to housing, because the coastline is the obviously going to
Speaker 1: be the first place affected by sea surge. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: it's these are tough things where it requires massive redesign
Speaker 1: and and relocation. Relocation is a the other big possible solution.
Speaker 1: It's another tough one. They the scientist I was reading
Speaker 1: referred to it as managed retreat. Yeah, to say like wonderful, uh,
Speaker 1: wonderful euphemism. Well, the point was I said, like, this
Speaker 1: is not going to change, it's going to continue, it's
Speaker 1: going to get worse. And and so your beautiful beach
Speaker 1: front property is not going to be a plus. No,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be it's gonna be beyond beach property at
Speaker 1: that point, it's gonna be ocean property. Uh, not ocean front,
Speaker 1: but in the ocean. And so it's one of those
Speaker 1: deals where you know, you have to really seriously look
Speaker 1: at the consequences and say, we are going at some
Speaker 1: point we're going to have to move people out of here.
Speaker 1: We can't perpetually keep everyone here. It's just not possible.
Speaker 1: It's not a realism. We gotta figure out another another solution.
Speaker 1: So what we have to do now is think about
Speaker 1: what that solution is so that when it gets closer
Speaker 1: to the time when people have to move, they actually
Speaker 1: do have a place to move to. It doesn't do
Speaker 1: us any good to say, well, we'll figure that out
Speaker 1: when it comes, because then they'll just have another chaotic
Speaker 1: mess on our hands. So the the um the suggestions
Speaker 1: I've seen have been start putting into place a plan
Speaker 1: for managed retreat, perhaps even going so far as to
Speaker 1: create a system in which people who own a house
Speaker 1: will be guaranteed a location in this new place like
Speaker 1: that is they will have they will still have a
Speaker 1: home because the land that they owned will now be
Speaker 1: transferred to a different spot. But that's I mean, think
Speaker 1: about it, millions of people. That is not an easy
Speaker 1: thing to manage. Look at any population density map. Where
Speaker 1: where the most people gathered there along coastlines? Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean you know it's it's it's it's where trade happens.
Speaker 1: It's where gentler weather traditionally has happened. Oops. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: and and you know there's there's just one of those
Speaker 1: things like that. It's it's people are drawn to the ocean.
Speaker 1: It's pretty. It is pretty. I mean I know that
Speaker 1: when I go on vacation to any ocean area, I
Speaker 1: want to have a house that has ocean views. Right.
Speaker 1: I don't want to be one block back and I
Speaker 1: can hear it, but I can't see stuck facing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't want that. So I mean I get it.
Speaker 1: And and and I live in a I happen to
Speaker 1: live in a city where I have the luxury of
Speaker 1: not having to worry about as early as everyone else does. Uh,
Speaker 1: not to say that Atlanta would be completely immune. I
Speaker 1: mean we live on a piedmont. We're not in the
Speaker 1: mountains yet, so um, if the sea levels rose truly dramatically,
Speaker 1: it could get to the point where Atlanta would become
Speaker 1: a coastal city and imagine that. But yeah, that's another
Speaker 1: thing to to worry about. That the solutions that you
Speaker 1: pick may not be long term. Even in that case,
Speaker 1: you would have to really look at the elevation of
Speaker 1: land and how far away from sea level is it
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, would it be affected by that
Speaker 1: same rise and sea level. I think the solution is
Speaker 1: we just all moved to the Himalayas it's called the
Speaker 1: water world contingency. Yeah. Yeah. And and then on top
Speaker 1: of that, of course, you have to start thinking about
Speaker 1: the the other infrastructure, not just the buildings, but the
Speaker 1: but the sewer systems, the electrical systems. Yeah. We saw
Speaker 1: this in New York City as well, the massive problems
Speaker 1: they had with their power grid and the subway systems.
Speaker 1: That we have to make sure that that infrastructure can
Speaker 1: withstand something like a massive flooding. Uh and you know,
Speaker 1: we've probably talked about it more on tech stuff than
Speaker 1: here on forward thinking. But the power grid, particularly in
Speaker 1: the United States, is very much a patchwork sort of thing,
Speaker 1: and some of that patchwork dates back to the dawn
Speaker 1: of the electricity age. So you know, yeah, an upgrade
Speaker 1: is sorely needed. It's just one of those things that
Speaker 1: when you get it in place and it works, it's
Speaker 1: hard to justify the expense of changing it. Yeah, it's like, well,
Speaker 1: this is close enough for right now. So it's it's
Speaker 1: meeting our needs and yeah, it's stuff breaks, but we
Speaker 1: can fix it pretty fast. Well, yeah, we can fix
Speaker 1: it pretty fast under normal conditions, but not in the
Speaker 1: wake of a hurricane necessarily. So this has been, you know,
Speaker 1: really interesting to look into. It's one of those things
Speaker 1: that I still think we have the complete capability to
Speaker 1: make these decisions and make them in a way that
Speaker 1: has the least possible negative impact, but only if we
Speaker 1: start thinking about it earlier rather than later. The longer
Speaker 1: we hold off on coming up with viable solutions for
Speaker 1: people who live in these these cities that are at risk,
Speaker 1: the harder it's going to be when that time comes
Speaker 1: when we get to a point where we have to
Speaker 1: make the call of all right, that's it Miami, that's
Speaker 1: it for Miami. You know, we've got to move everybody
Speaker 1: from there. So kind of the opposite of Miami. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: you know means I got to rethink where I'm retiring.
Speaker 1: So there's that. But anyway, this has been kind of
Speaker 1: a you know, a darker episode in many ways, but
Speaker 1: it's one that is necessary. I think one of those
Speaker 1: where you know, one it's necessary for us to maintain
Speaker 1: optimism and to to apply that to solutions so that
Speaker 1: we get you know, not denialism, not to say, optimisms
Speaker 1: to the point where we don't accept what's happening it.
Speaker 1: But yeah, but before we can come up with solutions
Speaker 1: for this kind of thing, we have to we have
Speaker 1: to be thinking about it. We have to be aware
Speaker 1: of it exactly and not let it overwhelm us, but
Speaker 1: rather have it inspire us to innovate in a way
Speaker 1: that that that solves a problem or creates a solution
Speaker 1: that is going to be the least negative. If you
Speaker 1: are a true cynic, I'm an optimist. I'd like to
Speaker 1: think that we could come up with a really super
Speaker 1: cool way of addressing this. Um, I just think that
Speaker 1: we have to start thinking on it now. We can't wait.
Speaker 1: I think robotic chicken legs on all of our buildings
Speaker 1: apaches that I get a big thumbs up from the way. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and if you know, I've always I've always enjoyed the swamp,
Speaker 1: So I think having a swamp house that can move
Speaker 1: around and the swamp is pretty awesome. Now I think
Speaker 1: where you're just in a Muzaki film. Yeah, probably that's okay.
Speaker 1: I'm alright with that. Well, guys, if you have any
Speaker 1: suggestions for future topics that we can tackle here on
Speaker 1: Forward Thinking, I recommend you write us and let us know.
Speaker 1: The email addresses f W Thinking at how Stuff Works
Speaker 1: dot com, or you can drop us a line on Twitter,
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Speaker 1: can leave us a message on that page and we
Speaker 1: will read it and we look forward to hearing from you,
Speaker 1: and we will talk to you again. Releasing for more
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