1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:03,760 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Every Pitch is Your Pitch? 4 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 2: The greatest show on. 5 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 3: Dirk Deep til way back that God, what is that show? 6 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 3: Now they can add college baseball to their trophy case. 7 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. Colin Wilson 8 00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 2: and I will be tackling college baseball not just today, 9 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:43,480 Speaker 2: but really every Wednesday or Thursday midweek for the rest 10 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 2: of the ride, all the way through the College World Series. 11 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 2: We're going to help you be able to build out 12 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,959 Speaker 2: your card on those Friday, Saturday, and Sunday Game one, 13 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 2: Game two, Game three of those series, as well as 14 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 2: giving you futures to build your portfolio as we inch 15 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 2: closer to Omaha. Speaking of that's in terms of the 16 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 2: pecking order, Baseball America has released its projected bracket just 17 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 2: a few hours ago, and here are some of the 18 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 2: highlights to give you a feel for the landscape of 19 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 2: college baseball at this exact moment. No surprise, eight SEC 20 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 2: teams are projected to host the regionals, so half of 21 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 2: the regionals coming out of the Southeastern Conference, four from 22 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 2: the ACC Florida's State, North Carolina, Clemson, and NC State. 23 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 2: The Wolfpack have been white hot two West Coast Schools, 24 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:24,960 Speaker 2: Oregon State from the independent ranks, and then you see 25 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 2: Irvine go and Eaters, and then finally West Virginia out 26 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: of the big twelve in coastal from the Sunbelt. To 27 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 2: close things out in terms of who will be hosting 28 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 2: those regionals, now, home field is nice plan on your 29 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 2: home diamond, great, but your podmates are so important in 30 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 2: terms of your path to Omaha. Take for instance, North Carolina. 31 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 2: They are a four seed in the projected bracket hosting 32 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 2: in Chapel Hill, but they welcome in Xavier George Mason 33 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 2: great check check Texas A and m though looming there 34 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: in terms of that pod Without the benefit of knowing 35 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 2: Colin what these pods will look like next month, what 36 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 2: teams do you target right now in terms of their 37 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 2: current price to get to Omaha that you think are 38 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 2: undervalued out of the market. 39 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is a perfect time in the season. 40 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: Step back and say I have a pretty clear idea 41 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: who's going to be a number two or a number 42 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 1: three seed in these regionals and don't have a chance 43 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: to be a number one. And I'm talking about the 44 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: Floridas of the world. I'm talking about the Alabamas of 45 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 1: the world. These are the kind of teams that get 46 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 1: assigned to go to Clemson or go off to UC 47 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: Irvine if they happen to have a home regional, and 48 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: that is a very scary proposition for those home teams 49 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: to have a hot SEC team coming in. So this 50 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: is a perfect week to look at futures. See who's 51 00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: pretty much securing that you have to look at Alabama 52 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 1: four to one to just to make it to Omaha. 53 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:42,679 Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure they're going to be a two or 54 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: three seed. They're going to be the favorite in the 55 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: regional round Kentucky plus four to fifty. They need to 56 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: prove it a little bit more, but I think the 57 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: Gators are the team that really need to be talked 58 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: about in this podcast. 59 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 2: Let's get into a quick game of pepper before we 60 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 2: start looking at the Friday card. Your projections in terms 61 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 2: of pitching matchups, in terms of totals. I talked about 62 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 2: home field magic last week in the SEC in particular, 63 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 2: and immediately we got a vintage moment at alex Box 64 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 2: on Friday night. Down three to zero in the ninth 65 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 2: inning to number five tennessee LSU rallies with the help 66 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 2: of two fielding airs, a walk two singles, and then 67 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 2: an absolute walk off bomb from Jared Jones. LSU wins 68 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 2: that series. They beat Tennessee. They're now essentially neck and 69 00:03:22,639 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 2: neck with the balls in the futures market. They're just 70 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 2: I think there plus eight to fifty. Tennessee's going off 71 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,079 Speaker 2: at about six to one. The SEC is full of 72 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 2: elite teams. We know this. Everyone has an opportunity on 73 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 2: a weekly basis to have a statement win in a series, 74 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 2: potentially go to sweep and kind of change their overall ceiling. 75 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 2: How impressed were you by the Tigers and that statement 76 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 2: series win in Baton Rouge? 77 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean every well, first off with figure out 78 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: what's wrong with Tennessee. Tennessee and Arkansas continue to lose series, 79 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: so I'm not sure what's going on with those two clubs. 80 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: At the same time, LSU is peaking, and I think 81 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: that they are making a claim that they should be 82 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: a top three national seed right now, which puts them 83 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: in a great position to host everything in Baton Rouge 84 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: before they go to Omaha. And they're clicking on all 85 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: cylinders from a starting pitching, from a hitting perspective, this 86 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: is a hot team. The problem is is the price tag. 87 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: I think their price about third lowest of all the teams, 88 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: so around eight to one. So this might be the 89 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: last time to get them, but I think we'll discuss 90 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 1: that more in our future section. But it's not a 91 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: cheap price. You have to pay a heavy tax on 92 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: LSU right now. 93 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 2: In last week's episode, we made it clear that you know, 94 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 2: in the future's market, some pipe dreams are being sold. 95 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 2: You know, you see Irvine is not going to win 96 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 2: at all. No disrespect to the end eaters, right, I mean, 97 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 2: I'll throw that up there and at least put a 98 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 2: question mark on the end of it, because they're solid 99 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 2: across the board, but they're not dominant anywhere in terms 100 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 2: of a top ten national ranking. Their schedule leaves a 101 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 2: lot to be desired, so you just don't really know 102 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 2: how they're going to react against some of these power teams. 103 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 2: And as you mentioned, they could pull an SEC team 104 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 2: as a two or three seat even though they're hosting 105 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 2: in Irvine. All of a sudden, it gets dicey right 106 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 2: from the regional jump. You know, the fact of the 107 00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 2: matter is they don't have power in the alleys. They 108 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:01,719 Speaker 2: don't have home run power, so should they make it 109 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 2: to Omaha, it seems like they would be drawing dead 110 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 2: at that cavernous field. But when you look at their 111 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 2: starting pitchers, their top three, they're sixteen and two straight up, 112 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 2: but only Trevor Hansen gives them ace energy. Is there 113 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 2: anything I'm missing in terms of the you know, bird's 114 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 2: eye view on the and Eaters to potentially make some 115 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 2: noise and be a darling this summer? 116 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 1: Well, you said it from the offensive perspective. They're eighty 117 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 1: second and home runs per nine, so I don't believe 118 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 1: that they can actually do any damage. But that's not 119 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: really the point of our exercise for the futures market, 120 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: because you see Irvine one hundred and seventy second strength 121 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 1: to schedule the remaining strength of the schedules two hund 122 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 1: and thirty ninth. So what that tells me is it 123 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: is not going to get any better, and they're going 124 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 1: to probably cake walk into a super regional seed at 125 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: eight and I're going to have to host a really 126 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: rough SEC team and the sticks are just not enough 127 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 1: there for me. And when you look at their team 128 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 1: X fit, it's more than a run higher than their 129 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: team era, So that tells me there is some regression 130 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 1: to do with this pitching staff. 131 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 2: I mentioned Friday, Saturday, Sunday, some series kickoff on Thursday. 132 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 2: You have projections for Kansas State BYU Louisville, Notre Dame, Texas, Arkansas. 133 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 2: Let's start with Texas. They've won ten straight, but now 134 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 2: they travel to Fayetteville at bomb Walker Long Uns are 135 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 2: nine to one straight up on the road this year, 136 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 2: but they're tinkering with their rotation coming to this one. 137 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 2: You know, talk me through the narrative of moving a 138 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 2: new pitcher in here and how that of an impact 139 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 2: on this series. Right from the jump in. 140 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: Game one, yeah, it was announced that Jared Spencer, the 141 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 1: opening game starter for the Texas Longhorns, was going to 142 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: be out for the season. So the Sunday starter, Ruger 143 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: Rioas has been moved to the Friday night role, so 144 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: he will get to start here on Thursday night against 145 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: the Razorbacks. You know, like it's Texas A and M. 146 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: Last week opening up that series, five point two innings pitched. 147 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,919 Speaker 1: He didn't give up any earned runs. You know, the 148 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 1: last time he was on the road he went six 149 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: point six point two innings against Kentucky and gave up 150 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: three earned runs, nine hits, and three walks, So we 151 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 1: had a pretty high whip in that game. But he's 152 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: been successful on the road and he was successful in 153 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: moving to being the opening starter for Texas. How he 154 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 1: does against Arkansas, who, like I said, has lost three 155 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: series in a row right now, they finish up their 156 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: season with Texas, LSU and Tennessee. The bullpen has lowered 157 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: the team FIP an x FIP from three point eight 158 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: down to four point five in the last three series, 159 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: So it's really all about the bullpen. Every single piece 160 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: that comes out of Da Van Horn. Da Van Horns 161 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: bullpen has been giving up earned runs every frame that 162 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: they've been in. So if Arkansas cleans that up, they're 163 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: a national title contender. But right now it's a bit scary. 164 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 2: The Cardinals traveling to South Bend to take on the 165 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 2: fighting Irish Louisville seventeenth in the most recent rankings from 166 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 2: D one Baseball dot Com. They got to have this 167 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 2: series in South Bend, if for no other reason, to 168 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 2: be able to prove that they can win going on 169 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 2: the road, something that when you look at road RPI 170 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 2: that can be a key indicator of your success in 171 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 2: the tournament and making your way to Omaha. What do 172 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 2: you make of this one? 173 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Louisville Notre Dame on Thursday night 174 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: is going to be an even minus one to ten 175 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: both ways. That's the way that I project it. But 176 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that Louisville's not going to come out 177 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: completely overpriced in the market. So I am watching this one. 178 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: Just keep in mind the Louisville has not won an 179 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:06,239 Speaker 1: ACC road series yet this season. They've taken on Virginia 180 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: Tech in c State and Clemson. We'll see if they 181 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: can take a series on the road of Notre Dame. 182 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: But I'll be looking for an inflated price and probably 183 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 1: an underdog spot to buy on Notre Dame Thursday night. 184 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and turn into the Friday card with 185 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 2: the headliner Texas Arkansas Game two. You got Luke Harrett 186 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 2: Harrison on the bump. He's really turned the corner two 187 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 2: years removed from Tommy John. Last year, it was bumpy 188 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 2: in terms of his performance, any consistency, really having faith 189 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 2: in his arms to make it through the entire season. 190 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 2: But now the lefty looks like he's reborn. It's interesting 191 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 2: in terms of a whole body, you know, reimaging from 192 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 2: when he showed up out of high school. He's put 193 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 2: on sixty pounds on the forty acres, he's changed a 194 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 2: bit of his delivery post surgery, and now he's looked 195 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 2: dominant in recent wins over Georgia and A and M. 196 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 2: But when you get your boy here, gage Wood, where 197 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 2: are you leaning in this matchup? 198 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: I'm absolutely looking at Arkansas on this one. I project 199 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: Arkansas minus one sixty in Game two against Texas, and 200 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: that is the connection of gage Wood starting the game 201 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: and Gabe Gackle going to clean it up. And if 202 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: you want to ask about Arkansas losing a whole bunch 203 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 1: of series in a row, well, they did win game 204 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: two the last two times out against Texas, A and 205 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 1: M and Florida, and that was the gauge Wood game 206 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: Gackle connection that they have going on. The pitching staff 207 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: has been elite with these two. So I am looking 208 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: at Arkansas in game two to hopefully have a deflated 209 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,199 Speaker 1: price because it's Texas and anything under minus one fifty 210 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 1: is definitely a play on the Razorbacks. 211 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 2: Game one between the wolf Pack and the Hurricanes. Dom 212 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 2: Fritten is a short favorite about minus one point twenty 213 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 2: in terms of your projections up against Griffin Hookas for 214 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 2: the Canes, it's been a great month for the wolf Back. 215 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 2: I mentioned it at the top. They've climbed to the 216 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:49,520 Speaker 2: top of the e SEC standings, but there's very little 217 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 2: room for air if they want to go ahead and 218 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 2: hosts a regional. And the Canes are just as hot 219 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 2: in terms of how well they played on their home diamond. 220 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 2: So which team with momentum? Are you ready to fade 221 00:09:58,960 --> 00:09:59,679 Speaker 2: in a spot like this? 222 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's one of them has to crash. 223 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: N Cy State was ten and two in the ACC 224 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,199 Speaker 1: during April, but you know, you know, three of those 225 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: four series came at home against Clemson, Louisville, Virginia. They 226 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 1: did sweep out a Cow, but that isn't really a 227 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: big thing bullet on your resume, and they lost the 228 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: series to Douke at the end of March. SOAI you know. Miami, 229 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 1: on the other hand, they've won four straight ACC series. 230 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,079 Speaker 1: They swept Georgia Tech after we hyped them up a 231 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, and Griffin Hugos right now has 232 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: a lower fit for Miami than Don Priton has for 233 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: n C State. So I do like Miami in this 234 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: opening game, and I like them all series against Louisville, 235 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: who might be a little overpriced in the market. 236 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 2: Mississippi State and other SEC team with significant home diamond 237 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 2: advantage in terms of who they're putting on the bump here. 238 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 2: Talk me through this pitching matchup in particular, and then 239 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 2: I know the narrative. We've been talking about it really 240 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 2: for the past three years. In terms of Kentucky. They 241 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 2: just don't have that same power of some of their, 242 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 2: you know, competitors just in the SEC. So is this 243 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 2: enough to just go ahead and lay the juice with 244 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 2: the home team here and feel like they're going to 245 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 2: be overpowered? Or do you think the Wildcats can find 246 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 2: a way to manufacture runs on the road. 247 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,319 Speaker 1: I don't think so, because I love Misssippi State's peak Cocne. 248 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: He has been very good in his last couple of outings, 249 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: especially when you look at what he has done in 250 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: his home series. The last time he was at home 251 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 1: pitching out of duty, Noble was throwing against Florida that 252 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: hot offense. He went five innings, he only gave up 253 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 1: two run runs and he punched out eleven batters. That's 254 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: a pretty high impressive canine rate out there. So he's 255 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: also got an ex fit that is well below four. 256 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: It's one of the best of all starting pitchers in 257 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 1: the SEC. So pe Co Cone is the number that 258 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: I'm going to play absolutely. I think I haven't projected 259 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: at minus one ninety, but this is a spot where 260 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: I think the Kentucky Misssippi State series it's probably going 261 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 1: to be lying between minus one twenty both ways all 262 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: three games. So this is definitely a spot to take 263 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 1: Mississippi State. 264 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 2: Let's stick with that same series on Saturday. Your projection 265 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 2: for the total jumps up by about a run and 266 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 2: a half in game two. Is that purely based on 267 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,079 Speaker 2: the starting pitchers or is there anything that you're noticing 268 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 2: in terms of trends for game two? Just mentioned it 269 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 2: in terms of you know, Arkansas playing well in game 270 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 2: two of series. Is there anything trend line related that 271 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 2: has you potentially leaning towards and over here? 272 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking for an over with Kentucky Mississippi State. 273 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,440 Speaker 1: Both Nick McKay and Evan Siary they have phipps over 274 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: six that is well higher than their er that can 275 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: inflate run totals. So this is one that I project 276 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 1: fifteen point two. I expect the market we'll have at 277 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: twelve and a half out there. We'll see if win 278 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 1: can help us a little bit, but I definitely like 279 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:29,559 Speaker 1: the over in that game. 280 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 2: Turnings to LSU and A and M. As I mentioned, 281 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 2: the Tigers bats are hot, but when things have gone 282 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 2: right for Justin Lampkin, things have gone really right, and 283 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 2: when they've gone wrong, they've totally gone off the rails. 284 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 2: He gave up seven runs to both Kentucky and Arkansas 285 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 2: in recent weeks. Do you see the roof caven in 286 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 2: on him again against this Tiger lineup. 287 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 1: I do think this is a potential discount on LSU's 288 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 1: Anthony irons and his FIP is well blow three EER 289 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: at three point five. Justin Lampkin nearly a full run 290 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: higher in his FIP his x FIP then his ERA, 291 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 1: so there's definitely some regression there. As Texas A and 292 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: M team, you know they've they've they've been a little 293 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 1: sloppy on the defense lately too, So definitely a spot 294 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 1: where I'm going to look to buy LSU if. 295 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 2: You're betting every day in Major League Baseball, you can 296 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,559 Speaker 2: kind of grind through a lot of low scoring games, 297 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 2: you know, three to two, four to five, you know, 298 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 2: these these matchups that come in well below double digits. 299 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 2: If you want to go in the opposite direction, just 300 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 2: flip on Auburn and Tennessee. You think this is going 301 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 2: fireworks from the opening pitch? 302 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely so, Lindsay Nelson Stadium will be the wind. 303 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:35,719 Speaker 1: Watch what will be on. But really what this is 304 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: about is the Cade Fisher matchup for Auburn going up 305 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 1: against Marcus Phillips for Tennessee. Both of them have phips 306 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 1: that are over seven, which is astounding, and x fips 307 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,319 Speaker 1: that are over over e ras that are over five, 308 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: So it's a full two runs higher from era to fip, 309 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 1: and it's going in this wrong direction for both of 310 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: these pitchers. So definitely look at it over here between 311 00:13:58,440 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: Kate Fisher and Marcus Phillips. 312 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 2: Do you ever watch sports and find yourself wishing there 313 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 2: was another way to get into the game. Will with 314 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 2: Underdog There's finally a way to make picks on sports 315 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 2: without leaving the house. The game is in your hands 316 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,199 Speaker 2: to play. Choose whether you want to go higher or 317 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 2: lower on a player's stats like touchdowns, strikeouts, points to 318 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 2: be scored, and more. They've got all your favorite league's 319 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 2: teams and stars to choose from. 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Must be 334 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 2: eighteen plus, nineteen plus in Alabama and Nebraska, nineteen plus 335 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 2: in Colorado for some games, twenty one plus in Massachusetts 336 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 2: and Arizona, and president in a state where Underdog fantasy 337 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 2: operates term supply concerned with your play called one eight 338 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: hundred gambler or visit NCP gambling dot org in Arizona, 339 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 2: called one eight hundred next step or text next step 340 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 2: to five three three four to two in New York 341 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 2: called a twenty four to seven ope line at one 342 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 2: eight seven seven eight hope and why or text hope 343 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 2: and why. The largest favorite on your Saturday card in 344 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 2: terms of projections, Kansas with Cooper Moore on the bump 345 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 2: of minus four to twenty against Cincinnati and Kellen O'Connor. 346 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 2: The Big Swall doesn't have a lot of buzz. As 347 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 2: I mentioned at the top, you know, West Virginia potentially 348 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 2: being the only team out of the conference to host 349 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 2: a regional, but there's still major league talent floating around. 350 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 2: You know, Cooper Moore has really found balance between a 351 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 2: fastball that clocks into about ninety three miles per hour 352 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 2: and a plus changeup that is basically putting them on 353 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 2: the radar to be drafted in this summer's Meet League 354 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 2: Baseball draft. That's why he's a prohibitive favorite over Cincinnati. 355 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 2: Is there any other angle or any other reason to 356 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 2: consider the Bearcats and if not, how do you advise this, 357 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 2: you know, do you go immediately to a run line 358 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 2: or do you try to tack this on with the 359 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 2: Jayhawks as a parlay sweetener even at minus four twenty. 360 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought we needed to call out Kansas here. 361 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: They're probably going to potentially end up be at number 362 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 1: two seed in regionals, and you know, they are doing 363 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,480 Speaker 1: a lot of things right here in the national rankings. 364 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: And he called out pitcher Cooper Moore just because he 365 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: has legitimate stats. Because you're always looking to see where 366 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: a pitcher's FIP versus ERA is. That tells you how 367 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: actually if he's really good or if they're kind of fraudish, 368 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: and that's not the case here with Cooper Moore. So 369 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: he's got to FIP up three point eight against the 370 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: ERA of three point two. Those are both very respectable numbers. 371 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: So Kansas will be a buy on team, especially when 372 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: Cooper more is pitching. 373 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 2: On Sunday, we get to Dylan ESQ from South Carolina 374 00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 2: talk to me about the game Cocks pitcher on Sunday. 375 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's quite You want to talk about discrepancies in 376 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: eer versus x FIP. Really, what you're looking for is 377 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: like no more than a run, right, you want the 378 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: boundary to be somewhere similar. Dylan sqzra for South Carolina 379 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 1: right now is two point three six, while his x 380 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: FIP is seven point three. So there will be no 381 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 1: playing of South Carolina on the days that Dylan esq 382 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: is going out. But the over is always in play, 383 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,199 Speaker 1: especially with those hot Florida bats that are going on 384 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: right now. 385 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 2: The Mountaineers right now in the driver's seat to secure 386 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 2: that regional out of the Big twelve. They've won five 387 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 2: straight games on Sundays. I love a good trend to 388 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 2: be able to follow, and you look at the board, 389 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 2: they're going off at probably minus four seventy. In terms 390 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 2: of this matchup, talk to me about why the Nears 391 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 2: are in near lock. 392 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, some teams do not take Sundays very serious when 393 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 1: they win the first few games, but that is not 394 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 1: the case with West Virginia. They've won five straight Sunday games. 395 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 1: They project as a heavy favorite here. I make a 396 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: minus four seventy with Jack carsonis going up against Texas, 397 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 1: Texas and Petty. But if you anything cheaper than that, 398 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: you know, maybe anything something in the minus three hundred range, 399 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,640 Speaker 1: you can still add this to your parlay card. West 400 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: Virginia has been a very trusted team on Sundays. 401 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:05,399 Speaker 2: Speaking of Troy has lost four of their last five 402 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 2: on Sundays. Anything else to report on the Trojans or 403 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 2: what's going on in the sun Belt. 404 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I thought it was just a call out the 405 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 1: fact that Troy has not won on Sundays and usually 406 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 1: they might project as a favorite. So you know, South 407 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: Alabama is not really a team you want to wake 408 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:22,439 Speaker 1: up and put your money on on Sundays. But you know, 409 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 1: there's sevitated twenty four the season. There are one hundred 410 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:27,880 Speaker 1: and forty fourth. But if you could stomach it, Troy 411 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:29,919 Speaker 1: isn't really interested in playing on Sundays if they win 412 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: the first two games. 413 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 2: All right, onto our favorite segment, which is when we 414 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 2: add to our futures portfolio. I thought it was interesting. 415 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,399 Speaker 2: Earlier this week on Twitter, you put out a power 416 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 2: ranking that had a caveat that was important for people 417 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 2: to read before they started to respond to it, which 418 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 2: was a ranking of, in your opinion, the combination of 419 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 2: how good these teams are and most importantly, where they're 420 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 2: priced in terms of lining up right now putting tickets 421 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 2: in at the window. Let's start with Texas. I know 422 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 2: that their price is great, but in terms of an 423 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 2: opportunity to get in, do you think that the window 424 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 2: has closed? Do you need to kind of sit back 425 00:19:06,560 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 2: and hope that Texas drops a series or two and 426 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 2: that number comes up a little bit. Are you still 427 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 2: interested in them at this point? 428 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: I mentioned in them, but not really in this price, 429 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: and I think that you could get something better. I'm 430 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 1: passing on them once again because the team EXFIP kind 431 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 1: of scares me. It's five point two against an ERA 432 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,479 Speaker 1: of three point one. That's a nearly two run jump 433 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: between what this team actually is. So there is some 434 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: regression coming to this pitching staff. Like we said earlier, 435 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 1: Jared Spencer out for the season, you had to move 436 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: riger ri Joas up to the starting role. Who takes 437 00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,439 Speaker 1: over that Sunday roll? How are you going to look 438 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,880 Speaker 1: on the road? Hasn't been beautiful on the road course. 439 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,679 Speaker 1: It never is in SEC. So I'm passing on Texas 440 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 1: once again. The schedule is tough enough to close it 441 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: out here that if they drop a series, you'd probably 442 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: get a better price. 443 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,360 Speaker 2: It can be difficult at this time of year, really 444 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 2: in college sports in general, that stretch run before you 445 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 2: get in the conference tournament, time before he gets to 446 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,479 Speaker 2: the NCAA tournament, where teams start stacking wins. But you 447 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 2: say to your EF, it's fool's goal. They're a paper tiger. 448 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 2: I'm not believing them. Does Kentucky fit that bill because 449 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,360 Speaker 2: they beat Tennessee in Knoxville, they knock off South Carolina 450 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 2: as well, But as we've mentioned time and time again, 451 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 2: they're not going to change their stripes at this point. 452 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 2: They're not a team that can hit the ball out 453 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 2: of the ballpark, and even if they do make it 454 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,560 Speaker 2: to Omaha, that kind of handicaps them right from the jump. 455 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,360 Speaker 2: So is there any number that will get you interested 456 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 2: in UK or is this just just stay away team 457 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 2: because they're slugging? It is outside the top one hundred 458 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 2: and sixty. 459 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:31,159 Speaker 1: Yeah, the slugging is a very big issue. I think 460 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,239 Speaker 1: they're extremely well coached. I think they proved last year 461 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:34,959 Speaker 1: with a great coach and a great pitching staff can 462 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: do and how far they can get you. But at 463 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 1: the same time, this year, the offense has been so 464 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 1: anemic it's almost impossible to back them. You know, they 465 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: took the series at Tennessee on the road, and then 466 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,160 Speaker 1: you know, winning versus South Carolina last week. It gets 467 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: them on the radar as someone we need to talk about. 468 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 1: But one hundred and sixty third home run per nine, 469 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: it's going to be an issue. It's just it's similar 470 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,919 Speaker 1: to last year's team. You can only get coach to 471 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 1: pitch so far. At some point you have to hit, 472 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: and Kentucky's not going to be able to do that. 473 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 2: It feels a little bit like groundhog Day with the 474 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 2: Florida Gators last year, they were number two in the 475 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 2: preseason poll. They fell apart early in the season, then 476 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 2: they rallied. They got hot just by virtue of sneaking 477 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 2: into the tournament and then making their way all the 478 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 2: way to Omaha. They've basically bounced back from early season injuries, 479 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 2: their metrics are on the rise, and they've won three 480 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 2: straight series. What is the cutoff in terms of price point? 481 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 2: I know that you tweeted out. I believe it was 482 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,360 Speaker 2: four or five days ago there were one hundred to one. 483 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 2: That number has evaporated. So what is the lowest emport 484 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:30,760 Speaker 2: that people consider on the board with. 485 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,360 Speaker 1: UF Yeah, I had to make sharing get my own 486 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,639 Speaker 1: one hundred to one over at the nice people over 487 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 1: at FanDuel and then tweeted out and it was all 488 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 1: of a sudden fifty to one everywhere. I think fifty 489 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 1: to one is probably about what market averages. I have 490 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,879 Speaker 1: seen some sixty to one out there, and you know, 491 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:48,879 Speaker 1: I think from a future's market perspective, this is the 492 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: time of year where you want to look at who 493 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: are those hot two and three seeds, specifically, who are 494 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: those hot two and three seeds coming in from the 495 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 1: SEC and facing a non SEC team in a regional 496 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 1: and potentially a super regional. So you know that Florida 497 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,040 Speaker 1: fits that bill. They were injured all at the beginning 498 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 1: of the season. Now they are, now they're hot. You know, 499 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 1: taking a series against the Razorbacks won three straight series. 500 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 1: They should take this road series against South Carolina. Should 501 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,360 Speaker 1: not be any issues there whatsoever. And then maybe Texas 502 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 1: finally does regress next week when they take on this 503 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: Florida team, and that number that was underd to one, 504 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: that was sixty to one, fifty to one, that'll be 505 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: long gone. Also one of the. 506 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 2: Hardest things to do in terms of handicapping, as the 507 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 2: release of the futures market we see in college basketball. 508 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 2: We see it in college football. When you're taking those 509 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 2: G five teams with those mid major teams, you're saying 510 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 2: to yourself, how much does competition matter? Can I look 511 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,919 Speaker 2: at a very small sample size, maybe one series or 512 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,120 Speaker 2: two series for a team in college baseball and extrapolate 513 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:47,959 Speaker 2: that and say that this is what they're sealing? Is 514 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 2: this all relates to UC Irvine because when you look 515 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 2: at their schedule, they've basically not played anybody in months. 516 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 2: But you have to go back to a one run 517 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,880 Speaker 2: loss to Vandy earlier in the season, as well as 518 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,119 Speaker 2: their performance against Oregon State. Is that enough for you 519 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 2: to believe that they can at least get to a 520 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,119 Speaker 2: super regional? And if so, what's the right number to 521 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:08,280 Speaker 2: be in bed with the and Eaters? 522 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,200 Speaker 1: Well, they definitely, I have potential to make it as 523 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,480 Speaker 1: the eighth seed. I know that they're gonna They're probably 524 00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 1: hanging out between eight and ten right now and a 525 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,919 Speaker 1: lot of polls, so we'll see if they can make it. 526 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,880 Speaker 1: You know, they went to Corvallis on April fourth, and 527 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,520 Speaker 1: they just missile kicked the organ, the organ, stud starter 528 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 1: and the bullpen for ten earned runs. It wasn't a 529 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 1: really good showing by Oregon State when you see Irvine 530 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 1: got that, so that's a huge boost for them. But 531 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,679 Speaker 1: you know, otherwise it's kind of the same question. You're 532 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: eighty second home runs per nine, is that going to 533 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: play out when you're not facing a strength of schedule? 534 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: There was one hundred and seventy second in the nation, 535 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 1: So you know, I think fifty to one is probably 536 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 1: a little bit too short. Too short for you see Irvine, 537 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,479 Speaker 1: I'd probably hang back. I don't see any reason why 538 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,439 Speaker 1: that number would continue to climb in the market. 539 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 2: Let's look at another West Coast team also fifty to one. 540 00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 2: That Oregon Ducks not much competition to come down the 541 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 2: pike pike in the Big Ten. So talk to me 542 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 2: about how you view the Ducks and what really their 543 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,199 Speaker 2: ultimate ceiling is if they're able to go ahead and 544 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 2: grab a fratuitous seed in the upcoming tournament. 545 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, we know that Oregon is a legit baseball team 546 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 1: in the postseason. They've made the Supers before, and I 547 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 1: think Oregon fifty to one was an official future that 548 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 1: we added this week. You know, if you didn't get 549 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:23,960 Speaker 1: a chance to get a piece of Florida. Then you're 550 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: probably gonna want to get a chance to get a 551 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 1: piece of organ because the remaining path and the Big 552 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 1: Ten play is Michigan State, Washington, and Iowa. These are 553 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: not real powerhouses of college baseball. Although Iowa should make regionals, 554 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,680 Speaker 1: Oregon shouldn't have a problem there. And then outfielder Mason Neville, 555 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 1: he leads all individual hitters in all the Division one 556 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,000 Speaker 1: baseball and home runs per nine, and it's actually a 557 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 1: pretty wide gap. He's got twenty one of them on 558 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 1: the season, and the Ducks are contender to grab a 559 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,360 Speaker 1: super regional seed. With this schedule they can close out. 560 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 1: And keep in mind, the Big Ten Championship tournament is 561 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 1: in Omah, so it's at Charles Schwab Field. So I 562 00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,440 Speaker 1: mean it's a huge boost for Oregon if they actually 563 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,400 Speaker 1: were too are hosting a regional, maybe host a super 564 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: regional and then get to go play in stadium that 565 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 1: they just want a Big Ten championship in so Oregan 566 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: fifty to one is definitely an ad We'll close. 567 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 2: This out by looking at the acc NC State. As 568 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 2: we mentioned multiple times, they've been hot, they've been hot, 569 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,200 Speaker 2: they've been hot, but now they have back to back 570 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,360 Speaker 2: series coming up on the road with Miami in North Carolina. 571 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 2: This is just my perspective on it. I'd like to 572 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 2: get a little bit greedy if they can drop the 573 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,119 Speaker 2: series against Miami and that ticks up their number a 574 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 2: little bit before that series against North Carolina. That's what 575 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 2: I'd like to get interested in the wolf Pack. What 576 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,119 Speaker 2: are your thoughts in terms of timing to grab a 577 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 2: team out of the AEC, whether it's NC State or 578 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 2: someone else. 579 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we're gonna hold and keep our eyes 580 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: open this weekend and definitely have consideration next weekend. So 581 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 1: in Cey State is the hot team in the ACC. 582 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 1: They're off sweeps of Clemson and cal and they took 583 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: the series against Louisville and Virginia before that. So I 584 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 1: mean these are extreme quality series wins here, two consecutive 585 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: road series that are coming up. Though it is hard 586 00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 1: harder to win on the road. It's going to be 587 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 1: against Miami, and then you see potentially they don't have 588 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,320 Speaker 1: a problem with Miami, but the UNC series is so 589 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 1: big that if they were to win that one, it 590 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,199 Speaker 1: would definitely shake up the market. So NC State is 591 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,120 Speaker 1: a team that we pass and watch this weekend. If 592 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: it holds out and the number is still available, it's 593 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 1: something that we would probably want to grab before the 594 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,280 Speaker 1: UNC series because that would shake up the futures market. 595 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 2: I won't put words in your mouth, but it sounds 596 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 2: like you're pretty bullish on the Gators and the Ducks. 597 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 2: Are those the two teams that you'd like to officially 598 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 2: add to the portfolio here? 599 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think this is the week to buy 600 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 1: on the teams that are dipping. Tennessee and Arkansas really 601 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 1: have not had any big movement in the market, so 602 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: it's not really time to buy the dip on these 603 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 1: number one seeds that are losing. It's more like it's 604 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 1: time to buy these teams that are coming in as 605 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,479 Speaker 1: potentially three or number two seeds. They're going to get 606 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,400 Speaker 1: to play in probably friendly environments against teams that shouldn't 607 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 1: have host roles like the uc Arvines of the world. 608 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,160 Speaker 1: So that leads us to Florida sixty to one or better, 609 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 1: Oregon fifty to one or better. Both of those should 610 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:01,440 Speaker 1: come in as two hotter seeds who potentially win their 611 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 1: conference tournaments. So I think that's a great time to 612 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: buy on both the Ducks and the. 613 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 2: Gators that we'll do it for today's episode. Thanks again 614 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 2: for joining us. Thanks to my co host Colin for 615 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,520 Speaker 2: walking us through the entire landscape no stone left unturned, 616 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,119 Speaker 2: going from Thursday all the way through Sunday, giving you 617 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: insight and plays on sides and totals, as well as 618 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,679 Speaker 2: his two editions of Oregon and Florida to his future's portfolio. 619 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 2: I'm your host, Mike Alabrets. We will return next week 620 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 2: with more coverage of the College Diamond. Good luck with 621 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,239 Speaker 2: all your bets, and we'll see here next time at 622 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 2: Big Bets on Campus. 623 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 624 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 625 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 626 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler