1 00:00:01,840 --> 00:00:03,480 Speaker 1: You guys, I'm just going to be straight up with you. 2 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: I'm getting a little bit worried about this election. We 3 00:00:07,440 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: went from coasting against Joe Biden, where it seemed like 4 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: the inevitable was a landslide for former President Trump, to 5 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: now feeling like there's been a momentum shift with Kamala Harris. 6 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,280 Speaker 1: We see it in the polling. She has overtaken former 7 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: President Donald Trump in the national average. We've also seen 8 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: states like Georgia titan immensely. I know the Trump campaign 9 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,559 Speaker 1: has said that this is just a honeymoon period for 10 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris. That could be true. We know that the 11 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: media is doing its best to cover for her. I mean, 12 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: she hasn't even been asked questions, she hasn't been forced 13 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 1: to give a press conference, She's not been asked anything, 14 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: and the media has completely bought her bs on switching 15 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: her stances on everything. I mean, this is a woman 16 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: who was the most liberal United States senator, even to 17 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 1: the left of Bernie Standers. I mean, her policies would 18 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: make him blush. She should be in a commune with 19 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, not in the White House. But that matters 20 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 1: because the media is covering for her our Americans getting 21 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: the truth about her record, and then she selects Governor Waltz, 22 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: who is probably even worse than she is, if that's 23 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: even imaginable. I mean, Kamala Harris compared Ice to the KKK. 24 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: You look at the governor of Minnesota. I mean, we 25 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:29,039 Speaker 1: all know that he allowed Minneapolis to burn to the 26 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:33,119 Speaker 1: ground during the George Floyd riots. He supports cities refusing 27 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:37,839 Speaker 1: to comply with federal immigration law. He signed a law 28 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 1: putting tampon products in boys' bathrooms, which is why he's 29 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: being called tampon tim online. He made Minnesota a sanctuary 30 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: state for child sex changes. He legalized abortion with the 31 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: most radical law in the country. So can you even 32 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: imagine if these two were to win? But that might 33 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: be the reality if things don't change, if the trajectory 34 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 1: doesn't change. And I know there's a fair question about 35 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: are the polls to be trusted? I don't know, you know. 36 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: Steve Deese, a host for The Blaze, tweeted out about 37 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: how twenty twenty was one of the biggest misses for 38 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 1: pollsters and how they overestimated Democrat support. Does that happen again? 39 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 2: I don't know. 40 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: It's hard to find out in this environment. We're going 41 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: to continue to try to bring you the truth, continue 42 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: to have guests on to try to analyze the data 43 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: available and the information available. But you know, I'm getting 44 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: a little bit nervous about what a Harris Waltz ticket 45 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: would do for this country and or a republic. It's frightening. 46 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 1: So we're going to have Tom Bevin on the show. 47 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: He is the co founder and president of Real Clear 48 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: of Politics. As you know, Real Clear of Politics. It's 49 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: an aggregator of data and information. So I view him 50 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: as an objective source, so I want to have him 51 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 1: on the show to try to really dig in and 52 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: get to the truth of where things stand now and 53 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: where this might be heading. Stay tuned for Tom Bevan. 54 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 1: Tom Bevan, it's great to have you on the show. 55 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 1: This has been a wild election cycle. You know, they 56 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: got rid of Joe Biden and now they have a 57 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 1: nominee who has never received a primary vote or one 58 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: a caucus. But here we are, so hopefully you can 59 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: make some sense of the insanity. 60 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 2: No promises, no promises. You know, it's funny because I 61 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 2: had been saying, you know, give speeches and whatnot and 62 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 2: do interviews, and I've been saying, you know that the 63 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 2: primaries were so sleepy. I mean, people thought there'd be 64 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 2: some drama on the Republican side with DeSantis. Didn't really 65 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 2: work out, and obviously, you know, the Democrats sort of 66 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 2: rigged the whole system to protect Biden from any real challenges. 67 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 2: But I kept saying to myself, I like, the crazy 68 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 2: is coming, the crazy is coming. Just you know, it's 69 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 2: a combination of like Murphy's Law and Ockham's Raiser and 70 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 2: the chaos theory. Right, whatever the craziest scenario is you 71 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 2: can think of, it'll it'll eventually arrive, and here we are. 72 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 2: I did not you know, some people had talked about 73 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 2: the assassination attempt being a possibility that that certainly, but 74 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: it's still shocking when it happens. And then the switch. 75 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 2: I mean it has been it has been a crazy 76 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 2: What four weeks is it's about maybe even less. 77 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 1: It feels like four years. 78 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 2: It does. It feels like years. We've been doing this. 79 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: I mean, you've been observing campaigns and politics for a 80 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:37,479 Speaker 1: long time. Is this sort of the craziest few weeks 81 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: that you've seen on the campaign trail? 82 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, unprecedented and yes, totally crazy, and we've had 83 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 2: you know, you know, so we started real clap politics 84 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 2: in two thousand and almost every election since has been 85 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 2: historic in its own way, whether it was the two 86 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 2: thousand election itself or you know, Obama's election two thousand 87 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 2: and two was historic in the outcome of that midterm, 88 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 2: and you know, just sort of go on and on. 89 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 2: But and you know, twenty sixteen obviously, but this one 90 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 2: has had really the craziest has been These last four 91 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: weeks have been so unprecedented in terms of what's happened. 92 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: And we still have I don't know how many days 93 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 2: left now, it's like just over ninety years under ninety believe, Yeah, 94 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, we're in the eighties. So and I 95 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 2: fully expect the next you know, this final sprint is 96 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 2: also going to be just total insanity all the way 97 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: to the finish line. And maybe even after, you know, 98 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 2: God forbid, we find ourselves in another situation where states 99 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 2: are so close that we're doing recounts and lawsuits and 100 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 2: we don't know who the winner is for days or weeks. 101 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 2: That is still a real possibility as well. 102 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 1: Mean, you think in twenty twenty four we would figure 103 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: that out. 104 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 2: But yeah, it's kind of no luck, no luck, you know. 105 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 1: So, you know, in talking about just the chaos and 106 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: the disruption and sort of the unprecedented nature, how difficult 107 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: does that make the prognosticate and to try to figure 108 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: out where this race stands and where it is potentially going. 109 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean obviously, you know, we've all been watching 110 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 2: and trying to figure out how from the switch, I mean, 111 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 2: it was pretty clear the data on Now you can argue, oh, 112 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,680 Speaker 2: where the polls accurate, where they underestimating Trump, where they 113 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:37,239 Speaker 2: overestimating Trump. I think, yeah, but sort of the thirty 114 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 2: thousand foot view, the data was pretty clear that Joe 115 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 2: Biden was losing, he was losing nationally, he was losing 116 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:48,119 Speaker 2: in the swing states, and Trump was in a much 117 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 2: much better position this time around than he wasn't twenty twenty. 118 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 2: I mean that's just sort of it's like inarguable basically, 119 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 2: and then the switch happened, and so we're waiting for 120 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 2: data and the data is emerging, and look, I think 121 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:05,720 Speaker 2: it's it's pretty clear now. I mean, I think Kamala 122 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 2: Harris has been ahead in the last five or six 123 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 2: national polls. She's ahead now in our real clear politics 124 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 2: average the two way race by five tenths of a 125 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 2: percentage point. She's ahead in the five way average by 126 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 2: six tenths of a percentage point. And these battleground states 127 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 2: are now back to you know, Georgia, Trump's lead is 128 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 2: under one percent. Harris is leading in Michigan by two. 129 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 2: She's now moved ahead in Wisconsin by half a percentage point. 130 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 2: Pennsylvania's back under two. So there's no question she's in 131 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 2: a much better position than Joe Biden was three weeks 132 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 2: ago when he exited the race. And but and the question, 133 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 2: so there are two questions, number one or two points 134 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 2: to be made. Number one is does this continue? Does 135 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 2: this momentum continue, or does this stop at some point 136 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: and it reverts back to sort of the honeymoon ends, 137 00:07:58,320 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 2: if you will. And then the second point is you 138 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 2: know that even as Trump has lost three and a 139 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 2: half points nationally and three points or two and a 140 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 2: half points in these battleground states, he is still way 141 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 2: ahead of where he was in twenty twenty, still in 142 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 2: a much better, much stronger position that looks a lot 143 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 2: more like twenty sixteen than twenty twenty. And so but again, 144 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 2: you know, the question is, okay, how accurate are these 145 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 2: polls that we're getting from these various organizations, And that's 146 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 2: one of those, as Don Rumsfeld would say, one of 147 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 2: the known unknowns. Right, there's no way of knowing until 148 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 2: on November, you know, sixth how how accurate all of 149 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 2: these poles are in the aggregate or even the individual 150 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:45,839 Speaker 2: ones are. 151 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: We've got more with Tom, but first, we're quickly approaching 152 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: the one year anniversary of the horrific Hammas attacks on Israel, 153 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: and still the Holy Land continues to be attacked on 154 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: multiple fronts. Deadly threats are increasing in northern Israel. Constant 155 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 1: rocket attacks from Hasbala have been fired at Israel, causing 156 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: widespread damage, with raging fires destroying precious farmland. 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Israel needs or support now. 172 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 2: So. 173 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: Steve Diese, a host for The Blaze, tweeted out about 174 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: how twenty twenty was the biggest miss for polsters and 175 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,839 Speaker 1: how posters were way outside of the margin of error 176 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 1: in their final projections, talking about how CNN, for instance, 177 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: was off by eight point nine percent. A lot of 178 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: them overestimated Democrats support, which kind of begs the question, 179 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: you know, have polsters become We've sort of seen politics 180 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 1: take over everything in America, like every institution, and you know, 181 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: I guess, have pollsters become political in terms of bias? 182 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 2: So I wouldn't. I mean, so that's a tough question. 183 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 2: I mean, there are certainly. It is certainly true that 184 00:10:51,600 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 2: polsters there have been part of polling, okay, is you 185 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,719 Speaker 2: make your phone calls, you get your respondents, and say, 186 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 2: you've got a thousand respondents, okay, and you've got I 187 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 2: don't know, I'm going to make up numbers. Right, You've 188 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 2: got three hundred Democrats and three hundred Republicans and or whatever, 189 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:13,839 Speaker 2: and you've got so many You've got so many eighteen 190 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 2: to twenty nine year olds, you've got so many black voters, 191 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 2: you've got so many rural voters, whatever. And so you 192 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 2: take that data and then you have to extrapolate it 193 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 2: to either a state or a nation, and you have 194 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,440 Speaker 2: to make assumptions about who's going to turn out, what 195 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 2: is the electric going to look like on election day? Right? 196 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 2: And pollsters use passed voting records, past turnout levels from 197 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 2: all these groups, and they wait these polls and they 198 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 2: take their best guess at what the electorate is going 199 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 2: to look like on election day. And it is certainly 200 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 2: true that in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, the traditional polls, right, 201 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 2: the New York Times, Sienna, Quinnipiac, Washington Post, these sort 202 00:11:56,160 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 2: of big institutions all had liberal bias. They all assumed that, 203 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 2: you know, either more Democrats were going to turn out 204 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 2: than actually did or less Republicans, and Trump overperformed. And 205 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 2: you also had in those same cycles you had Republican 206 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 2: polsters like Trafalgar and Rasmussen and some of these other 207 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 2: polsters insider advantage, for example, who made much better guesses 208 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 2: i should say, educated guesses or projections about who was 209 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 2: going to turn out on election day in twenty sixteen 210 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 2: and twenty twenty when Trump was not on the ballot. 211 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 2: So now we're talking twenty eighteen and twenty twenty two, 212 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:44,960 Speaker 2: the republican polsters foresaw a more Republican electorate, and the 213 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 2: more traditional polsters, the one who who were biased toward 214 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 2: Dems in sixteen and twenty, they foresaw a more They 215 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 2: actually did a better job in those off your elections. 216 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 2: And so I mean to to try and distill that 217 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 2: incredibly long answer down. Apologize for that, no, go for it. 218 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: That. 219 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 2: Look, when Trump is on the ballot, these traditional polsters 220 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 2: have a really tough time of getting it right. And 221 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 2: that's because they underestimate. You know, Trump brings, he brings 222 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 2: people into the process who haven't voted before. He really 223 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 2: sort of discombobulates the electric in ways that they can't 224 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 2: understand or haven't been able to understand thus far. After 225 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, they did this big analysis, Oh, we think 226 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 2: we missed because of this, that and the other thing. 227 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 2: We're going to correct that, and lo and behold they 228 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 2: were even worse than twenty twenty. So they clearly didn't 229 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: know what they did wrong the first time. And so 230 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 2: to sit here in twenty twenty four and be like, yeah, 231 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 2: they've got it figured out now and they're all just 232 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:45,240 Speaker 2: going to be spot on this time. I'm very skeptical, 233 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 2: very skeptical of that. But we'll see. I mean, we 234 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 2: don't know. And so look, when Trump's not on the ballot, 235 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 2: I think Republican polsters would had thought. You know, again, 236 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 2: this goes back to the you know, the sort of 237 00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 2: red wave that didn't materialize in twenty twenty two, that 238 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 2: more you know, maga sort of Trump supporting voters were 239 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 2: going to turn out and vote for candidates in these 240 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 2: battleground states like you know, Blake Masters and herschel Walker, 241 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,319 Speaker 2: and it just didn't happen. And Democrats did a much 242 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 2: better job of turning out their electorate and overwhelming the 243 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 2: Republican vote in those years. So you know, we'll have 244 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 2: to see again. But we have to go to war 245 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 2: with the data we have. Unfortunately, that is part of 246 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 2: the job as a as an aggregator of polling data 247 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 2: and information. So we'll see, I mean, and again we 248 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 2: have a mix of Republican polls and sort of these 249 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 2: institutional polls. They've all been pretty similar for the most part, 250 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 2: particularly when Biden was in the race. Even the left 251 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 2: leading polsters, the ones who had the worst bias had 252 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 2: Biden losing. And so you know, we'll see where this 253 00:14:58,280 --> 00:14:58,720 Speaker 2: sends up. 254 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: Well, and for those at home, I'm sure everyone's familiar 255 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: with real clear politics, but you know, Tom and what 256 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 1: they do is that, you know, they aggregate the polls, 257 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: so they're really looking at all the data and then 258 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: trying to put it together so people, you know, you 259 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: look at averages and people can kind of get a 260 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 1: bigger picture about what's going on. So that bias that 261 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 1: I talked about wouldn't be on real clear politics. That 262 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: would be on the pollsters, the individual pollsters, you know, 263 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 1: because I think we're just we're in this era where 264 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of people just feel like we're 265 00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 1: not getting the truth from people, you know. And so 266 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 1: you look at these pollsters and they're just people, you know. 267 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: And so there is a world where a pollster would 268 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: allow their own personal bias to then be injected in 269 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 1: the way that they wait the polls, the way that 270 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: you know, as you pointed out of the way that 271 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: they conduct the polls, the questions that are asked, et cetera, 272 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: et cetera. So you know, we're just in this era 273 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: where where people don't really trust and just is the 274 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 1: whole point of this podcast is really just trying to 275 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 1: get to the truth of stuff. I read Tom that 276 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: Harris's campaign, you know, they believe their paths to victory 277 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: is a little bit different than what the Biden campaign 278 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 1: was looking at that you know, they're looking at Nevada, Arizona, Arizona, Georgia, 279 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania. You know, what do you think her coalition 280 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: looks like versus Biden's, for instance. 281 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 2: Well, I mean that's a good question. I mean I 282 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 2: think it's it's it's going to be similar. And obviously 283 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 2: she's done you know, she has has done a good 284 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 2: job of of when when the issue of Biden's age 285 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 2: has gone away, you've seen the Democratic electorate. I mean, 286 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 2: they're they're ecstatic, they're energized, they're finally, you know, happy 287 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,440 Speaker 2: after months of just being demoralized and watching Biden sort 288 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 2: of fumble about, and just you know, they finally are 289 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 2: feeling like they've got a candidate that they can they 290 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 2: can get behind it. And so you're you've seen her numbers 291 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 2: go up with African Americans and women and younger voters 292 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 2: and what not. But I think the coalition sort of 293 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 2: remains the same. I mean, I do think Biden had 294 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 2: a better chance of you know, making inroads with with 295 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 2: white voters, you know, you Scranton Joe right, Pennsylvania in particular. 296 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 2: I mean, this is why the Waltz pick is kind 297 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 2: of In some ways, it's understandable. In other ways, it's 298 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 2: sort of confounding, because you know, she had Shapiro right 299 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 2: there for the taking. And if they do believe Pennsylvania 300 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 2: is the state and it looks like it could be 301 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 2: the biggest, most important, the tipping point state of this election, 302 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 2: why not try and put that one away and then 303 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 2: you know she's already head in Michigan and try and 304 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,919 Speaker 2: battle it out there, even with whatever backlash he might 305 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:53,240 Speaker 2: have brought. But so I think the coalition is basically 306 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 2: the same. I think they do think that, and certainly 307 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 2: the polls reflect. Georgia, for example, is in I mean, 308 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,880 Speaker 2: Biden was losing that state by five points. It wasn't 309 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 2: even close. I mean, really the Sun Belt in general 310 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 2: had gotten away from him, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and 311 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 2: Georgia has come back into basically toss up situation. I 312 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 2: mean she's still she's still trailing in you know, by 313 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 2: three points in Arizona, four points in Nevada. North Carolina's 314 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 2: three points. So those states are still you know, and 315 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 2: we're still getting more data on those, but those are 316 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 2: a bit more of a stretch. But Georgia, I think, 317 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 2: is back online. And as I said, Wisconsin is she's 318 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 2: now taken a lead by half a percentage point. She's 319 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 2: leading by two in Michigan. So I think they're still 320 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 2: focused on the Upper Midwest. That's the most likely path 321 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,840 Speaker 2: the two seventy is to win those states, but they 322 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 2: also think they can get away. If they can put 323 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,919 Speaker 2: Georgia in play and get there, then that gives them 324 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,199 Speaker 2: an extra path that Biden just simply didn't have. It 325 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,120 Speaker 2: had all gotten down to there was only one path 326 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 2: for Joe Biden, and it was looking like it was 327 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 2: getting narrower and narrower as the time wore by. 328 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,879 Speaker 1: Yeah, memory serves me correct. I'm trying to pull this 329 00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: up as we talk, but I believe you guys had 330 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: or Emerson had Trump up by six against Biden and 331 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,719 Speaker 1: up against two against Harris and Georgia. I'm pulling up 332 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 1: that right now just to make sure I get those 333 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: numbers right for the audience. Yeah, Emerson has Trump up 334 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,880 Speaker 1: by two, and I believe against Biden it was by 335 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: six in terms of showing kind of how she's been 336 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 1: able to cut that lead a little bit. And again 337 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: the question is, you know this is a honeymoon phase. 338 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 1: How long does this last, especially when you look at 339 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania really voting starts on September sixteenth, and they're probably 340 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:38,360 Speaker 1: going to get a little bit of a bump out 341 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: of the convention. You know, how big of a bump 342 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: do you parties typically get after a national convention? 343 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 2: You know, that's a very good question. I mean, I 344 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 2: think it doesn't do us a whole lot of good 345 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 2: to look historically since we've been since twenty sixteen. We've 346 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 2: been in this I mean, look, we've been in a 347 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 2: divided era since two thousand, like a really divided era, 348 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 2: and it's only gotten worse since Trump came on the scene. 349 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 2: You know, Trump did get a bounce out of his 350 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 2: convention in twenty sixteen, and Clinton got a bit of bounce, 351 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 2: a bit of a bounce out of hers despite the 352 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 2: fact that there was some controversy there with the Sanders 353 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 2: folks and all that DNC stuff that happened, But it 354 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:30,439 Speaker 2: typically doesn't last these in these this current environment, you know, 355 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 2: you can't really expect much of a bump because the 356 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 2: electorate is pretty much so locked in. It's it comes 357 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 2: down to, you know, independence basically, and they may swing 358 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 2: your way a few of them for a few days 359 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 2: and then be back to where they were before. So 360 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 2: I don't I don't know that the Democrats are going 361 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 2: to get that much of a bump out of their convention, 362 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 2: or if they do, how long it's going to last. 363 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 2: I think the bigger thing, quite frankly, is is, if 364 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 2: we want to talk about a material impact on the race, 365 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 2: is the assist that they're getting from the media that 366 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 2: has has helped propel Kamala Harris. I mean, that's got 367 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:17,159 Speaker 2: to be worth you know, two or three points, just 368 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 2: the way that this the coverage has gone. It's been 369 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 2: so sort of glowing. And you know, she hasn't I mean, 370 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 2: she's been the nominee for what too, you know, the 371 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 2: likely nominee. I know, just became official the other day, 372 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 2: but this effectively happened on July twenty second, she became 373 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 2: the nominee. So that's like it's been almost three weeks. 374 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 2: She hasn't taken a single question, hasn't done a press conference, hasn't. 375 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:44,639 Speaker 2: You know, like there's no there's no scrutiny. They've just 376 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 2: sort of dutifully repeated as she's sort of yeah, she 377 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,719 Speaker 2: doesn't believe in you know, Bannon fracking anymore, and she's 378 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 2: you know, all for border security now. She's just like 379 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 2: it's been. It's been the kind of coverage that you 380 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 2: can I mean, even for those of us who who 381 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 2: have followed this stuff closely for years and years are 382 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:10,360 Speaker 2: kind of shocked at how how quickly and how effortless 383 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 2: les Lee that this the media sort of has has 384 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 2: gone along with this, and that I expect will continue. 385 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 2: I mean, i don't know when she's going to have 386 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 2: to face questions and when she does, if she's going 387 00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 2: to face you know, really difficult questions about changes in 388 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 2: her positions or her past record, or the administration's record 389 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,120 Speaker 2: on you know, various issues, and that, more than anything, 390 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 2: I think is very very helpful to them. 391 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: It's almost as if they wanted to win. Yeah. 392 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 2: Almost. I don't think it's I don't think it's too 393 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 2: much of a stretch for people who, again, who follow 394 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 2: politics closely to know that the media, you know, which 395 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:57,200 Speaker 2: which sort of had no bones about you know, joining 396 00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,880 Speaker 2: the quote unquote resistance in twenty sixteen, that they've been 397 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 2: that they have a favorite in this race. 398 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 1: It's really a sad state of affairs to no longer 399 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: have a media that behaves as a fourth estate, because 400 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: then there's just no accountability. You know. 401 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 2: I say this all the time too, and it's not 402 00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 2: it's not for me because I'm not you know, I'm 403 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 2: not a journalist by trade. I haven't been involved, wasn't 404 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,399 Speaker 2: involved in politics professionally, so I'm not like an operative 405 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 2: or idea logue or anything. For me. It's just simple fairness. 406 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 2: If you're going to give one candidate a pass, then 407 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 2: you need to give the other candidate a pass. If 408 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 2: you're going to hold one candidate, if you're going to 409 00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 2: hold their feet to the fire, then you need to 410 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 2: hold the other candidate's feet to the fire. If you're 411 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,040 Speaker 2: going to go glowing coverage to one campaign, you should 412 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,960 Speaker 2: give glowing coverage. You know, it's just a matter of 413 00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 2: simple fairness, right, and and that's the thing. We can't 414 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 2: even get that from our media. 415 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 1: I think the media should just be tough on everyone. 416 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:02,199 Speaker 2: I agree, if you're good like that would be the 417 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 2: best thing for democracy if the media actually provided sort 418 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 2: of asked the hard questions, asked the hard questions of 419 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,919 Speaker 2: both candidates about their positions about what they do. But 420 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 2: we simply we don't get that. 421 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 1: We've got a quick commercial break more with Tom Bevan 422 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 1: on the other side, you had an interesting tweet about 423 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 1: Governor Walls, tweeting that he only won thirteen out of 424 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 1: eighty seven counties and sixty percent of his vote came 425 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,360 Speaker 1: from four counties in his last race, talking about how 426 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 1: like he doesn't really expand you know the ticket talk 427 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: a little bit about that. 428 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,640 Speaker 2: Well, listen, I mean it's funny because I I did 429 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,200 Speaker 2: tweet that, and I got just absolutely I think Chris 430 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,359 Speaker 2: Hayes from MSNBC, you know, retweeted it was, you know, 431 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,880 Speaker 2: quoted it by saying something like, you know, Republicans want 432 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:58,400 Speaker 2: to do away with the Conservatives want to do away 433 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 2: with you know, they want the electoral colleges state level 434 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 2: or something. And so I got you know, I got 435 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,520 Speaker 2: eight thousand people telling me, you know, Land doesn't vote 436 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 2: people do that's the comment. Okay, well that kind of 437 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:16,200 Speaker 2: misses the point. The point is that Tim Walls was 438 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 2: selected in part because he's supposed to have this sort 439 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 2: of rural, working class, prairie populist, you know, personality and persona, 440 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,120 Speaker 2: and that he is going to be able to use 441 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 2: that persona to win over those kinds of voters in 442 00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:41,199 Speaker 2: places like Wisconsin and Michigan in Pennsylvania. That's what Democrats 443 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 2: think when you look at his reelection in twenty twenty two, 444 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 2: and he won easily. Okay, he won by eight points. 445 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,399 Speaker 2: He won by one hundred and ninety eight thousand votes 446 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 2: out of two point six million cast. He got most 447 00:25:56,200 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 2: of his votes from four counties in and around the 448 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 2: Twin Cities, and yes, that is where most of the 449 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:08,400 Speaker 2: population lives in Minnesota, but he exited there with four 450 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 2: hundred thousand votes and he only won by two hundred thousand. 451 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:12,959 Speaker 2: So in every other county in the state he ended 452 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 2: up losing, you know, net loss of two hundred thousand votes. 453 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 2: And those metro counties are also the most liberal counties 454 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 2: in the state. And so when you get outside of 455 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 2: those counties and you look at how he did in 456 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,640 Speaker 2: some of these other counties that are more rural and 457 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,120 Speaker 2: that you know, aren't sort of the blue surge counties. 458 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 2: As Steve Kornaky pointed out in his piece which we 459 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 2: ran on Real Politics, by the way, he didn't do 460 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 2: any better than Biden. He did about the same. So 461 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 2: he's not adding any crossover appeal to the ticket. He's 462 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 2: not doing it in Minnesota, so why would we expect 463 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 2: him to suddenly be able to do it in, you know, 464 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 2: a state that's not even his home state. So I 465 00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 2: think that whole idea is up for rutiny, and we 466 00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 2: should be skeptical about it until we, you know, get 467 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 2: data that proves otherwise that he actually isn't giving them 468 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 2: some sort of boost to Harris's ticket for working class voters. 469 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,359 Speaker 2: We haven't seen that yet. We don't have any data 470 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 2: on it yet, but just based on what we know 471 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:22,040 Speaker 2: about what his actual election results were. And you know 472 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 2: Howard Wolfson tweeted something back at me like, well, you 473 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,040 Speaker 2: know he he won this. You know, he oust did 474 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,880 Speaker 2: an incumbent Republican and a very Republican district. He knows 475 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 2: how to win tough races. You know. The response to 476 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 2: that is, first of all, his district went back to 477 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,560 Speaker 2: a Republican by like eleven points. But he was he 478 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,439 Speaker 2: was had a completely different sort of when he was 479 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 2: in the House of Representatives. He was in favor of 480 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 2: gun rights, he voted for the Keystone pipeline. He actually 481 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 2: governed and had a record that was more centrist and 482 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 2: and he had that record because he was representing a 483 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,040 Speaker 2: district that was more Republican. He hasn't governed that way 484 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 2: as governor. He signed legislation on abortion, on you know, 485 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 2: transgender rights, on driver's license for illegals. I mean, he 486 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,360 Speaker 2: has governed as a liberal and as a result of that, 487 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 2: all of his support in these you know, exurban and 488 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 2: rural counties has simply dried up. And so we'll see 489 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,399 Speaker 2: what happens with him and what he can add to 490 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 2: the ticket. But I think, you know, the initial reading 491 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 2: of him is I'm not sure he's going to add 492 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 2: much to the ticket at all in terms of the 493 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,439 Speaker 2: working class or the rural vote. 494 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 1: I mean, we really have polar opposites with Trump vance 495 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 1: and then Harrison. Well, it's about future of the country. 496 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: You know, I wanted to ask you. You know, the 497 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 1: Trump campaigns heavily courting the black vote. Is that a 498 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 1: smart strategy? 499 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 2: Sure? Why not? I mean, why would it not be 500 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 2: a smart strategy? I think it's Listen, you know there 501 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,280 Speaker 2: was a poll that came out and they were talking 502 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 2: about I'm trying to remember what poll it was. I've 503 00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,240 Speaker 2: seen so many that Kamala Harris had increased her her 504 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,719 Speaker 2: share of the black vote from where Biden was, and 505 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 2: it was it is positive, right, she has actually pulled. 506 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 2: I think it went from like, you know, mid seventies 507 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 2: up into the mid ages or something, and Trump support 508 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 2: went from twenty five down to eighteen. That the opposite 509 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 2: way of looking at that is if Trump gets eighteen 510 00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 2: percent of the black vote nationally, that's more than he 511 00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 2: got in twenty twenty, and more than he got in 512 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, that's actually bad news for Democrats, and if 513 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 2: he gets to twenty percent or more, that's a disaster 514 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 2: for them. So I think it is smart for him 515 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:43,680 Speaker 2: to try and appeal to Look, his appeal is less 516 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 2: identity based and more class based, right it is economic. 517 00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 2: It's you know, the reason he's gaining support is because 518 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 2: he's speaking to working class voters of all colors, right, white, black, brown, everybody, 519 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 2: and saying, look, life was better when I was president 520 00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 2: because we had more jobs, we had lower taxes, we 521 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 2: had you know, lower inflation, we had all these things. 522 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 2: You know it, I know it. Things were better when 523 00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 2: I was president. And and that's a message that resonates 524 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 2: again a cross across ethnic boundaries and and is more 525 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 2: of a class based populist economic argument. So I think 526 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 2: it's smart for him to take that argument to to everybody, 527 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 2: you know, as many people as he can and take 528 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:31,480 Speaker 2: it to because it does seem to be resoning now 529 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 2: it's more so with men than with women. But nevertheless, 530 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 2: if he's able to increase his vote share, that can't 531 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 2: do anything but but help him overall. 532 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,480 Speaker 1: Tom, before we go, is there anything else you'd like 533 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 1: to add about what I don't know. Tom, I always 534 00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 1: just like to ask more for you. 535 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 2: There's there's nothing I'd like to add. I think I've 536 00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 2: I've rambled. I've rambled a bit. I don't know. 537 00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 1: No, you've not rambled. It's been very interesting. I just 538 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 1: always because sometimes I. 539 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 2: Feel like, so, yeah, one one thing that you know, 540 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 2: if you want to ask and we can do, is 541 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 2: is like the Senate, because that's always been interesting. 542 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,120 Speaker 1: See, this is why I asked this question, because. 543 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 2: So we ask about the Senate. 544 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 1: Okay, this is why I ask is then the person 545 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: I'm interviewing always comes up with something that I miss. 546 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 1: It helps cover my bases, you know. Okay, so you 547 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 1: know what you know, Typically we see you know, the 548 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:33,560 Speaker 1: down ballot impacted by the top of the ticket kind 549 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 1: of you know, what are you seeing now? Has that 550 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 1: shifted with Harris being on the top of the ticket 551 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,200 Speaker 1: or where do you think the battle for the Senate stands? 552 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 2: Yeah? You know. One of the most interesting things about 553 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 2: this race was as as we watched Biden sort of 554 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 2: decrease in the polls and fall behind in all these 555 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,400 Speaker 2: battleground states the Democrat incumbents and even in the open 556 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 2: seats like the Senate candidates were not doing they were 557 00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 2: not falling behind, they were not suffering in the same 558 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 2: way that Biden was suffering. It's really unique in you know, 559 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:17,320 Speaker 2: Ruben Diego in Arizona, for example, Jackie Rosen in Nevada. 560 00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 2: You look at Tammy Baldwin and Wisconsin. We've got this 561 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 2: open race in Michigan. The Democrats are I mean, the 562 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,680 Speaker 2: map is really bad for them this time around. I 563 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,880 Speaker 2: think there's thirty four seats up and twenty three of 564 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 2: them are Democrats defending West Virginia's like off the board. 565 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,959 Speaker 2: So the basic sort of starting point is fifty to 566 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:42,440 Speaker 2: fifty and they've got all these vulnerable seats. It would 567 00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 2: seem to be very hard for them to hold onto 568 00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 2: the Senate. And yet you know Tester in Montana, Shared 569 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,680 Speaker 2: Brown and Ohio, who are probably two of the most vulnerable, 570 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,480 Speaker 2: They're hanging in there and they're they were doing way 571 00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,880 Speaker 2: better than Biden. And so with Harris back on the ticket, 572 00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 2: now you know, we haven't gotten a ton of data, 573 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 2: but as she has sort of raised enthusiasm, I suspect 574 00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 2: Democrat Senate candidates in these in these states are going 575 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,520 Speaker 2: to be in even better positions than they were before, 576 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,400 Speaker 2: and as this campaign sort of heats up, I mean, 577 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,160 Speaker 2: the argument is that some of these Republican candidates aren't 578 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:21,640 Speaker 2: as well known Eric Hofdy in Wisconsin, for example, and 579 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 2: these things will tighten as we get closer to election day. 580 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:26,960 Speaker 2: So we'll see. But I don't think there's any question 581 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:31,120 Speaker 2: that you know, Harris is sort of rising tide, is 582 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,000 Speaker 2: lifting the Senate boats for Senate Democrats, and that's something 583 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 2: that they have to be really really happy about. 584 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 1: And then last question before we go, you know, what 585 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,840 Speaker 1: are kind of the top issues that you see are 586 00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 1: sort of driving this cycle. 587 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,320 Speaker 2: Well, I mean the data is pretty clear. It's it's inflation, 588 00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 2: it's economy, immigrations up there. But honestly, Lisa, I feel 589 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 2: like this is not This election has been very very little, 590 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 2: has had very little to do with policy. Really, it's 591 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:06,719 Speaker 2: more vibes, it's more you know, it's more ballot chasing 592 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 2: in these battleground states. I mean, I feel like this 593 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:16,920 Speaker 2: is not a as you said, we have two tickets 594 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 2: that have sort of huge ideological differences on a bunch 595 00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:24,440 Speaker 2: of issues, but they seem to fall by the wayside 596 00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:26,719 Speaker 2: when all the talk's been about you know, the assassination 597 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 2: attempt and the switch and the ticket and Democrat enthusiasm 598 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 2: and all these things. And you know Tim Waltz, I mean, 599 00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 2: he's the guy who framed it's like they're weird and 600 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,200 Speaker 2: you know, Republicans are weird and they're creepy, and I mean, 601 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:43,319 Speaker 2: it's just there's been very little And again, Kamala Harris 602 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,840 Speaker 2: really hasn't had to defend her positions on any of 603 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,080 Speaker 2: these issues because she's not taking any questions. So it's 604 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:54,040 Speaker 2: kind of a it's an oddly it's an odd situation 605 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:58,000 Speaker 2: where where issues seem to be absent from the campaign. 606 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 2: And again it'll come down to well who can find 607 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:07,200 Speaker 2: ballots and chase them most effectively in these states. Democrats 608 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 2: have done a better job over the last couple of 609 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,920 Speaker 2: cycles than Republicans have, and so we'll see whether Republicans 610 00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:15,400 Speaker 2: can you know, make up that difference or not. But 611 00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,080 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, the data tells us what 612 00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:19,759 Speaker 2: the issues are, but it just doesn't feel like that's 613 00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 2: what the campaign is about right now. 614 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,400 Speaker 1: I think that the media is intentionally doing that, although 615 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 1: I will say for the audience, Tim Wallas is being 616 00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,760 Speaker 1: called tampon Tim because he wanted tampon's in the boys bathroom, 617 00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 1: if you want to know what's weird in my opinion, But. 618 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,440 Speaker 2: That by the mainstream media exactly. 619 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 1: And that's that's the challenge is, you know, we have 620 00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 1: a media that doesn't want to talk about the issues 621 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,120 Speaker 1: because it's not favorable to their favorite candidate. 622 00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,759 Speaker 2: But you know, it's interesting because the New York Times 623 00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,520 Speaker 2: ran a story today, so where's Tim wall stand on 624 00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:57,160 Speaker 2: the issue and the issues and that their explanation of 625 00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:02,520 Speaker 2: the issues is very sort of benign. Right on abortion, 626 00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:04,760 Speaker 2: they said, well, he's just he's in favor of women's 627 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,440 Speaker 2: right to choose, and he strengthened abortion rights, and you know, 628 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:14,759 Speaker 2: he's on LGBTQ. You know, he he protected, you know, 629 00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:19,799 Speaker 2: strengthened healthcare rights for transgender kids. And I mean, all, 630 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 2: that's okay, that sounds good, and then you kind of 631 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,840 Speaker 2: find out, okay, in more detail, exactly what those bills 632 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 2: entailed and what some of the results were, and it's like, oh, 633 00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 2: you mean he sort of codified abortion up to the like, 634 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,640 Speaker 2: you know, ninth month of pregnancy, and there were some 635 00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,360 Speaker 2: born and live infants that were you know, supposed to 636 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,680 Speaker 2: be aborted that they let die and and that you 637 00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,560 Speaker 2: know this transgender bill, oh, it actually allows the state 638 00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:46,839 Speaker 2: to what take your kid away if you don't agree. 639 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,279 Speaker 2: I mean, so they're being presented his stances are being 640 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:54,560 Speaker 2: presented in very sort of benign ways when the reality 641 00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 2: is that they're a little more a little more radical 642 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,320 Speaker 2: than that, and that's not coming through in the coverage 643 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 2: unless you're unless you're reading sort of the you know, 644 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:04,640 Speaker 2: the conservative media. 645 00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,640 Speaker 1: It feels like we live in two different Americas. 646 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:12,280 Speaker 2: We are certainly watching two separate movies, for sure, and 647 00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,520 Speaker 2: there isn't a lot of there isn't a lot of 648 00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,759 Speaker 2: overlap between the two movies that that Red America is 649 00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,240 Speaker 2: watching and Blue America's watching. 650 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,560 Speaker 1: Tom Evan, we'll leave it at that. Would love to 651 00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,279 Speaker 1: have you back on the show. Appreciate your honesty and 652 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,520 Speaker 1: your insight into to where things stand. Always love catching 653 00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:29,839 Speaker 1: up and would love to have you back. 654 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:31,080 Speaker 2: You got at least thank you. 655 00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:34,400 Speaker 1: It was Tom Bevan, co founder and president of the 656 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,200 Speaker 1: Real Claire Politics. Appreciate him for coming on the show. 657 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,280 Speaker 1: Appreciate his honesty. Appreciate you guys at home for listening 658 00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,800 Speaker 1: every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the 659 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,280 Speaker 1: week Ounit. Think John Cassi and my producer for putting 660 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:46,719 Speaker 1: the show together until next time.