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Speaker 1: All right, welcome doopsy, you're at the volume. Have you
Speaker 1: to everybody off? All of you guys had an incredible weekend.
Speaker 1: As expected. The Clippers Warriors game yesterday was incredibly entertaining
Speaker 1: and incredibly informative. So all we're gonna do in this
Speaker 1: little short episode this morning is we're going to talk
Speaker 1: about my five biggest takeaways from the first truly important,
Speaker 1: truly high stakes game in the NBA this season, and
Speaker 1: then after that, I'm gonna give just my initial impressions
Speaker 1: on the two Western Conference playoffs series, that being the
Speaker 1: Lakers versus the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Denver Nuggets versus
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Clippers. The rest of this week, we're
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of series preview content. I actually
Speaker 1: have a kind of a breakdown of that coming a
Speaker 1: little bit later in the show so that you guys
Speaker 1: can have an idea of what to expect this week.
Speaker 1: But this morning just Clippers Warriors, some takeaways, as well
Speaker 1: as my initial thoughts on the two other playoff series
Speaker 1: in the Western Conference. You guys know the joke before
Speaker 1: we get started to subscribed to the Hoops Tonight YouTube
Speaker 1: channel so you don't miss any more of our videos.
Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at underscore json lt so you
Speaker 1: guys don't miss announcement stff forget about a podcast for
Speaker 1: you wherever you eat you podcast on our Hoops Tonight.
Speaker 1: It's also super helpful if you leave a rating and
Speaker 1: a review on that front. Jackson's also doing incredible work
Speaker 1: on our new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook.
Speaker 1: Make sure you guys follow us there. In the last
Speaker 1: but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions and the YouTube
Speaker 1: comments and we can get to our mail bags throughout
Speaker 1: the remainder of the season. All right, let's talk some basketball.
Speaker 1: So again, yesterday, there was a brief moment early in
Speaker 1: the day where it looked like things could get a
Speaker 1: little bit more complicated because email Udoka decided to play
Speaker 1: his starters against the Nuggets. So now all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: you're really looking at the four or eight being literally anything.
Speaker 1: But the Nuggets came out with the requisite intensity. The
Speaker 1: Rockets did not. Udoka kept their minutes down and so
Speaker 1: that game ended up not mattering. So it ended up
Speaker 1: all coming down to that Clippers Warriors game. As I
Speaker 1: said at the top, we're going to do our five
Speaker 1: biggest takeaways. This is going to be the schedule for
Speaker 1: series previews this week, So again we have just initial thoughts.
Speaker 1: Today Tomorrow full series previews for Bucks, Pacers and Pistons Nicks.
Speaker 1: The next day Wednesday, full series previews on Lakers, Wolves,
Speaker 1: and on Clippers Nuggets. The two sevens will be out
Speaker 1: on Thursday after we have the results from the play
Speaker 1: in and then, just like we do every year, the
Speaker 1: one eights are always a little bit shorter and a
Speaker 1: little bit more brief, just because they're the biggest favorite
Speaker 1: usually and because of the way the schedule works, we
Speaker 1: don't even find out who those teams are until Friday night,
Speaker 1: and then Saturday morning the actual playoffs start, so I
Speaker 1: actually have to turn my attention to the real game.
Speaker 1: So our one eights won't be as comprehensive as the
Speaker 1: other six series previews. But that's the schedule this week.
Speaker 1: Two on Tuesday, two on Wednesday, two on Thursdays. Keep
Speaker 1: an eye on the feeds. You guys will see it there.
Speaker 1: Also for your Warrior fans, we will be going live
Speaker 1: on YouTube after the final buzzer of Grizzlies Warriors tomorrow night,
Speaker 1: and we'll do a little mail bag there as well.
Speaker 1: So our five biggest takeaways from this Clippers Warriors game.
Speaker 1: First of all, just incredible basketball. It's always amazing when
Speaker 1: you get to this time of year. There are important
Speaker 1: regular season games. There have been a lot of important
Speaker 1: regular season games in the last couple of weeks, but
Speaker 1: when you get to that final day of the regular season,
Speaker 1: it just feels different in terms of the stakes. And
Speaker 1: these were important stakes for both teams on a bunch
Speaker 1: of different levels. Right the Warriors losing dropped to the
Speaker 1: play in. If the Clippers had lost, they would have
Speaker 1: dropped to the plan. Now you can kind of draw
Speaker 1: a little bit of a silver lining for Warriors fans
Speaker 1: in the sense that, like, if you win that game,
Speaker 1: you have to go through the Clippers and then likely
Speaker 1: excuse me, the Lakers, and then likely the Clippers right
Speaker 1: after that, because I do think the Clippers would have
Speaker 1: beat Houston in a two seven matchup, and so you
Speaker 1: would have to go through two of the top teams
Speaker 1: in the Western Conference. If I was ordering the teams
Speaker 1: in the Western Conference, there's going to be, you know,
Speaker 1: the Thunder, the Lakers, the Clippers, the Warriors, and then
Speaker 1: a gap for me before the rest of these teams.
Speaker 1: And so the for you to have to play one
Speaker 1: of those teams in every single round, potentially this would
Speaker 1: be extremely difficult to get through. So now, if you
Speaker 1: win on Tuesday against the Grizzlies, at least you get
Speaker 1: to play Houston in the first round, which I think
Speaker 1: is an easier opponent than both the Lakers or the Clippers.
Speaker 1: That said, I think Warriors fans would have rather done
Speaker 1: the Lakers Clippers route and not have to take the
Speaker 1: risk of the play in. You go in there tomorrow
Speaker 1: and John Moran happens to have his three point shot
Speaker 1: going and he hit six or seven threes, and Desmond
Speaker 1: Bain's got to go in and Jaron Jackson hit six
Speaker 1: or seven threes, you could be staring down the barrel
Speaker 1: of like a Demarta rozen Zach Lavine led team coming
Speaker 1: into your building with a chance to knock you out
Speaker 1: of the playoffs. It's unnecessary risks, So obviously you'd rather
Speaker 1: take the route of the guaranteed playoff path. But if
Speaker 1: you're looking for a silver lining, I do think it's
Speaker 1: an easier path to go Houston La ok See than
Speaker 1: to go La la ok See. So that's a little
Speaker 1: bit of a of a silver lining there. But okay,
Speaker 1: looking back at the game ends up going to ot
Speaker 1: Clippers pull it out late. I wanted to go over
Speaker 1: some takeaways because I did think there were some revealing
Speaker 1: things for both teams in terms of what we can
Speaker 1: expect in their playoff run this year. From that game,
Speaker 1: first of all playoff Kawhi looks very much here, easily
Speaker 1: getting separation from top tier defenders, working Jimmy Butler to
Speaker 1: his spots on the floor to get easy fadeaways over
Speaker 1: both shoulders. He was getting separated. Draymond Green did log
Speaker 1: some good possessions against him, specifically the one at the
Speaker 1: final buzzer in the fourth quarter where he just got
Speaker 1: a great contest and forced one of Kawhi's worst misses
Speaker 1: of the day, kind of like an outside of the
Speaker 1: rim miss long into the right. But even against Draymond Green,
Speaker 1: like got a clean look at a step back three
Speaker 1: in crunch time, got a clean look at a step
Speaker 1: back along the left wing along two that he made.
Speaker 1: He was able to get separation from everybody and eventually
Speaker 1: dictate a bunch of double teams from Steve Kerr, I disagreed.
Speaker 1: I was actually talking with Jackson. We talked on the
Speaker 1: phone a little bit after the game yesterday, and I
Speaker 1: disagree with the strategy that they went with with the
Speaker 1: double team, specifically attacking Kawhi so far from the basket.
Speaker 1: One of the reasons why I don't like that is
Speaker 1: it creates a lot more space to deal with the
Speaker 1: four on three. Right, Like, it's kind of the Steph
Speaker 1: Curry blitz concept. Right, This is what Steph Curry's been
Speaker 1: doing to teams for a decade in terms of blitz coverage.
Speaker 1: You give a guy the ball right at the high
Speaker 1: post and a four on three with like the two
Speaker 1: defenders that were on the ball way out at near
Speaker 1: half court, there's just so much space for Chris Dunn
Speaker 1: to turn around and methodically look down the lane, like, oh,
Speaker 1: you know, this guy didn't step up, so I'm gonna
Speaker 1: shoot the little floater. Oh, this guy did step up,
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna throw the little lob to Zubats. It's
Speaker 1: like a very easy kind of like order of operations there.
Speaker 1: Kawhi is not the greatest passer of all times, so
Speaker 1: like I would have rather had you double Kawhi, Like
Speaker 1: as he's going into more of a scoring position, So like,
Speaker 1: if he's dribbling out by the three point line, just
Speaker 1: tell your man to pressure the ball, pressure him and
Speaker 1: funnel him to a specific side where you're planning the
Speaker 1: double coming from. And then as he puts his head
Speaker 1: down and starts driving, that's when you bring the double
Speaker 1: team and you can kind of capitalize in some of
Speaker 1: Kawhi's playmaking weaknesses. But I disagree with the strategy, but
Speaker 1: it is what it is. Kawhi ends up drawing all
Speaker 1: these double teams and they're able to consistently generate great
Speaker 1: shots out of it. But it started from the basic
Speaker 1: concept that nobody on the Warriors, an elite defense in
Speaker 1: this league, could make Kauai uncomfortable as he was just
Speaker 1: dropping whatever he wanted from anywhere on the floor. That
Speaker 1: bodes extremely well for the Clippers, right, Like, so much
Speaker 1: of what we talk about with the Clippers comes down
Speaker 1: to like this theoretical concept of like, well will Kawai
Speaker 1: be able to give you four playoff rounds? Well, here's
Speaker 1: the thing. It's April fourteenth or here now, Like Kawhi
Speaker 1: is healthy right now, with no games between now and
Speaker 1: his playoff series with the Denver Nuggets that starts on Saturday.
Speaker 1: So like he's here now, and he looks like Kauai.
Speaker 1: So at this point I feel like it's wishful thinking
Speaker 1: for him to get hurt. Maybe he will get hurt,
Speaker 1: who knows, but like it's very likely at this point
Speaker 1: that Kawhi is going to be healthy for this playoff
Speaker 1: runt in a way that it wasn't when we were
Speaker 1: discussing this theoretical team back in October. In November, I
Speaker 1: think that Bo's extremely well for Clippers fans. Kawhi Leonard
Speaker 1: looked like the best player on the floor last night.
Speaker 1: Kawhi when he's at his ceiling, is very capable of
Speaker 1: being a top tier superstar in this league, and it
Speaker 1: just fundamentally alters the talent level that is on this
Speaker 1: Clippers team. They looked like an absolute problem yesterday because
Speaker 1: of Kawhi and the ceiling that he's able to reach.
Speaker 1: Two I vi'sa. Zubats is on the doorstep of becoming
Speaker 1: one of the star centers in this league. Big, huge,
Speaker 1: important game, twenty two points, seventeen rebounds, got a bucket
Speaker 1: out of the post. He was doing a lot of
Speaker 1: different types of floor spacing. We talked about the vertical
Speaker 1: spacing on the lob from Chris Dunn in crunch time.
Speaker 1: He had another example of spacing like that Isaiah Hartenstein
Speaker 1: style floater spacing on a James Harden drive past Gary
Speaker 1: Payton where he went down the lane line had just
Speaker 1: shoveled it off to Zoo just outside the left block,
Speaker 1: and he was able to shoot that little floater over
Speaker 1: the top. He was destroying them on the offensive glass.
Speaker 1: He was just an absolute problem. I cannot wait to
Speaker 1: watch him battle Jokic for a full series. I think
Speaker 1: it's a very interesting matchup because of his size. He's
Speaker 1: one of the few guys in this league that's actually
Speaker 1: big and strong enough to cause some disruption for Nicole
Speaker 1: Jokic's base. Zoo is on a run and I cannot
Speaker 1: wait to watch him play some really high stakes basketball
Speaker 1: this week. Third big takeaway playoff. Jimmy Butler apparently is
Speaker 1: still a thing. I can't ever remember watching a player
Speaker 1: that has had more ability to scale up from his
Speaker 1: normal production in high stakes environments than Jimmy Butler. I
Speaker 1: wish he would have been more aggressive in crunch time,
Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about that in a little
Speaker 1: bit here in our fourth piece. Like Steph was just
Speaker 1: running out of gas a little bit late in the
Speaker 1: game once we got into the final minute of the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter. But for the most part last night, with
Speaker 1: the scoring in the playmaking, was able to leverage it
Speaker 1: in a way that was deeply impactful. He looked springy.
Speaker 1: He was getting to the rim, he was dunking, he
Speaker 1: was getting lots of lyft on his jump shot. Little
Speaker 1: concern with that need of the quad that he caught
Speaker 1: late in the game from Kawhi, especially just because they
Speaker 1: have to turn around and play in a day. That said,
Speaker 1: I do think the Warriors will dispatch of Memphis and
Speaker 1: he will have Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday off, So
Speaker 1: I think he should be fine. Jimmy looking great, I
Speaker 1: think is huge. I was talking with my friend Sam's
Speaker 1: fondi a who covers the Warriors with the Light Years guys,
Speaker 1: like about a week ago about Jimmy and just like
Speaker 1: some of his scoring scalability and like this was the
Speaker 1: big question mark. Was he gonna be the Jimmy that
Speaker 1: we saw in the regular season that's just kind of
Speaker 1: like a cog in the system that kind of helps
Speaker 1: elevate everybody and the Warriors look really, really good. Or
Speaker 1: is he going to be the twenty five plus per
Speaker 1: game point scorer that can like actually raise the ceiling
Speaker 1: of this team to where it needs to be to
Speaker 1: win the title. And even though it's just one game,
Speaker 1: I thought that was a very encouraging start to that
Speaker 1: run from Jimmy Butler. Four, the Warriors offense is still
Speaker 1: way to Steph reliant, kind of to the point where
Speaker 1: it doesn't actually make sense schematically. Like Brandon Pajemski is
Speaker 1: playing incredibly well, continues to play incredibly well, played incredibly
Speaker 1: well in a high leverage game again yesterday, Jimmy Butler
Speaker 1: was scoring whenever he wanted throughout the majority of that game.
Speaker 1: But there's this thing that happens when they get into
Speaker 1: crunch time where all of a sudden, it becomes no
Speaker 1: one shoot but Steph. The only way you're allowed to
Speaker 1: shoot off of Steph is if it's like specifically in
Speaker 1: the flow of those like four on three. So like, yeah,
Speaker 1: Jimmy will score on a cut off of a Jimmy
Speaker 1: off of a Steph Curry backscreen, or Brandon Pajemski will
Speaker 1: take a you know, wide open three at the top
Speaker 1: of the key out of a rotation situation that Steph generates.
Speaker 1: But there's no willingness for Jimmy to like come off
Speaker 1: of an action and look to score. There's no willingness
Speaker 1: for Brandon Pajemski to come off of an action and
Speaker 1: look to score down the stretch of these games. It's
Speaker 1: like Steph tries to create something and if it's not there,
Speaker 1: it's like find Steph again, Like wherever Steph is, just
Speaker 1: give it back to Steph. And it's like, while I
Speaker 1: get that, because I agree with Steve Kerr when he
Speaker 1: had his rant with Buddy Heel to be like, hey,
Speaker 1: look it's Steph Curry's great a shoot of all time,
Speaker 1: should probably give him the basketball. I don't disagree. But
Speaker 1: there's this thing that happens when you get into these
Speaker 1: super intense physical games where Steph Curry, because he's not
Speaker 1: the greatest athlete in the world, can sometimes struggle to
Speaker 1: get a shot off. Like over the course of the
Speaker 1: final six minutes of the game, he was incredible for
Speaker 1: the first stretch of crunch time that like just lighting
Speaker 1: the world on fire. Relocation, threes off the dribble, threes,
Speaker 1: getting to the basket, and transition. Steph was cooking them.
Speaker 1: But over the last six minutes he was running out
Speaker 1: of gas. He had three turnovers. He had a turnover
Speaker 1: in the final minute of the fourth quarter. He had
Speaker 1: two turnovers in the fourth quarter or in the overtime.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, you only got one three point shot off
Speaker 1: and then entire span like Steph was struggling to get
Speaker 1: a shot off. And so that's what you got Jimmy
Speaker 1: Butler for. Like what happens in those situations is when
Speaker 1: things get really physical and really tight and no one's open.
Speaker 1: It helps to have a forward who's big and strong,
Speaker 1: who can put his elbow into a dude and create
Speaker 1: a passing angle for you to just throw him the
Speaker 1: damn ball and he can turn and just shoot over
Speaker 1: the top of somebody. Because that's the advantage of being
Speaker 1: the great athlete, right. Like Steph has to run in
Speaker 1: circles until someone fucks up so that he can get open,
Speaker 1: Jimmy can just stand there at six seven with lots
Speaker 1: of strength and a good strong base and great lyft
Speaker 1: on his jump shot to be able to create a
Speaker 1: shot for himself. And so I think it would behoove
Speaker 1: the Warriors to at least have a little bit more
Speaker 1: balance down crunch time of these games to where you're
Speaker 1: still trying to get the ball to Steph and everything
Speaker 1: is still flowing through Steph. But hey, if it's like,
Speaker 1: you know, nine ten seconds left on the shot clock,
Speaker 1: it might be time to get Jimmy to the high
Speaker 1: post and ask him to try to draw foul by
Speaker 1: like ripping through him, pump faking, or trying to get
Speaker 1: to a spot in the middle of the floor so
Speaker 1: he can elevate over the top for a little ten
Speaker 1: foot jumps out over the top of somebody. There needs
Speaker 1: to be more variety down the stretch of these games.
Speaker 1: It's just so many of these games look just like
Speaker 1: that for the Warriors, where it's just Steph running around
Speaker 1: in circles until someone fucks up, and there just needs
Speaker 1: to be a little bit more variety and a little
Speaker 1: bit more confidence for Steph's co stars to be able
Speaker 1: to take some initiative late in games. And then, lastly,
Speaker 1: the Warriors have a little bit of a fifth starter problem.
Speaker 1: They had this issue yesterday where they're like, Okay, we
Speaker 1: who are we gonna close with? Are we gonna close
Speaker 1: with Moses Moody? Are we gonna close with Gary Payton?
Speaker 1: Are we gonna close going big? Like what are we
Speaker 1: gonna end up doing? Right? And so they end up
Speaker 1: going with Gary Payton, And the problem with that is
Speaker 1: Gary Payton wasn't particularly having too much success with James Harden.
Speaker 1: James Harden was still getting dribble penetration on him pretty
Speaker 1: much whenever he wanted. Shout out to James Harden, by
Speaker 1: the way, like two just absolutely massive threes in overtime,
Speaker 1: the transition three out of the right corner and that
Speaker 1: little step back three that he hit at the top
Speaker 1: of the key, some great dribble penetration sequences that led
Speaker 1: to quality shots. I thought Harden was fantastic yesterday, but
Speaker 1: Gary Payton was struggling in that particular matchup to keep
Speaker 1: him away from the basket. And then on the offensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor, it gives you a third player
Speaker 1: that no one has to account for as a shooter.
Speaker 1: I saw my friend roch Topolua I used to cover
Speaker 1: the Lakers with years ago. He tweeted out after the game,
Speaker 1: like it's Gary Payton, it's Draymond, it's Jimmy Butler. It's
Speaker 1: three guys that you don't necessarily have to like worry
Speaker 1: about being aggressive at the three point line in crunch time,
Speaker 1: like they will take them. Like we saw Draymond take
Speaker 1: one out of the right corner that he made. We
Speaker 1: saw Jimmy randomly after like not shooting in crunch time
Speaker 1: at all. We saw Jimmy randomly just just take a
Speaker 1: super heavily contested left corner three. But like, they're not
Speaker 1: guys that are going to catch wide open on the
Speaker 1: three point line and typically look to be super super aggressive,
Speaker 1: and that just gives a ton of opportunity for those
Speaker 1: other three guys, the defenders, to leverage their attention a
Speaker 1: little bit more towards Steph and so, but then you
Speaker 1: go to the Moses Moody thing and it's like, Okay, well,
Speaker 1: Moses Moody has been really struggling to shoot the ball
Speaker 1: as of late, right, and Moses Moody is not as
Speaker 1: good of a read and react player as Gary Payton is.
Speaker 1: That's a big part of why they go with Gary Payton.
Speaker 1: When Draymond missed the layup right in the final minute
Speaker 1: of OTI, it's a read that Gary Payton made out
Speaker 1: of the short role. Gary Payton has a ton of
Speaker 1: experience running screening action with Steph Short, rolling into the
Speaker 1: middle of the floor and playmaking out of it, where
Speaker 1: Moses Moody does not. So like that's the issue. Is like, okay,
Speaker 1: so you can go with the three and D guy,
Speaker 1: but then you don't have the playmaking talent, and Moses
Speaker 1: Moody hasn't been a very reliable three point shooter. Or
Speaker 1: you can go with Gary Payton and you're gonna get
Speaker 1: a better defender, but he's small and struggled with James
Speaker 1: Harden's size, and he doesn't shoot the three well even
Speaker 1: though he can do the read and react stuff. And
Speaker 1: so that's where, like, you know, when I look at
Speaker 1: the big picture for the Warriors as we go into
Speaker 1: next season, who knows what's gonna happen this year. There's
Speaker 1: still plenty of time for this team to regain the
Speaker 1: momentum that they lost here in the last week, and
Speaker 1: they could potentially go on a title run this year.
Speaker 1: I'm not right off by any means, but if they
Speaker 1: go into this summer, that's the position I think they
Speaker 1: need to look to address. And that's where it's like, Man,
Speaker 1: if you could somehow flip you know, minga and and
Speaker 1: something else for Cam Johnson and bring in like a
Speaker 1: like a really high level fifth starter, that's where this
Speaker 1: team could potentially vault into that like top top tier
Speaker 1: of teams in this league. So let's take a couple
Speaker 1: of looks at our Western Conference first round series. So
Speaker 1: Clippers Nuggets. My initial thoughts, I was surprised to see
Speaker 1: that Denver was favored, even though they do have home court.
Speaker 1: The Clippers have been playing better basketball for a very
Speaker 1: long time, like much better basketball for a very long
Speaker 1: time than the Denver Nuggets. I struggle to see how
Speaker 1: Denver regard the Clippers. James Harden in ball screens is
Speaker 1: the classic conundrum that Denver has struggled with, which is
Speaker 1: a pull up shooter that you have to bring Jokic
Speaker 1: up to the level against. Also a top tier playmaker
Speaker 1: in this league that can make the passes out of
Speaker 1: those sequences to consistently get Denver and rotation. That's a problem.
Speaker 1: As you saw in overtime and in crunch time, Norman
Speaker 1: Powell can attack closeouts. He attacked to close out off
Speaker 1: of the left winging crunch time, got to the basket
Speaker 1: for a scooping layup attack to close out out of
Speaker 1: the left corner. In overtime, drove along the baseline and
Speaker 1: had a really nice little slaloming move around the rim
Speaker 1: protector to get a reverse layup on the right side
Speaker 1: of the basket. That's the type of weak side scoring
Speaker 1: that has been devastating the Nuggets throughout this entire stretch
Speaker 1: where their defense is falling apart. You bring Jokic up
Speaker 1: to the level where's zoo Zoo is now getting all
Speaker 1: the way towards the rim with inside position on everybody.
Speaker 1: He's gonna crush everybody on the offensive glass. Are you
Speaker 1: going to guard Kawhi Leonard with Aaron Gordon? He's the
Speaker 1: only guy physically capable. Christian Brown is too small, Michael
Speaker 1: Porter Junior would get thrown around like a rag doll,
Speaker 1: Peyton Watson's too skinny. Aaron Gordon's the one guy who
Speaker 1: can physically match up with him. Here's the problem if
Speaker 1: you bring and I talked about this in other playoff
Speaker 1: series in the past, when you bring Aaron Gordon out
Speaker 1: to the perimeter to guard, he is no longer the
Speaker 1: low man support behind Jokic. Jokic is a weak rim
Speaker 1: protector that consistently has to go up to the level
Speaker 1: that it's consistently running back and forth to the perimeter.
Speaker 1: You need Aaron Gordon on the back line as the
Speaker 1: athlete that can clean things up at the rim and
Speaker 1: help side situations and clean up the defensive glass. If
Speaker 1: you put him on Kawhi gonna Kawhi is gonna space
Speaker 1: him out and occupy him, and it's just gonna leave
Speaker 1: an athletic deficit on the back line. I think it's
Speaker 1: That's my initial impression is I just don't see how
Speaker 1: Denver is going to really successfully guard the Clippers. Now.
Speaker 1: To be clear, Denver will also be able to score.
Speaker 1: Michael Porter Junior will almost certainly have size advantages shooting
Speaker 1: over the top. They'll put either James Harden or Norman
Speaker 1: Powell on him and he's gonna be able to shoot
Speaker 1: over the top. And then because of help on Jokich,
Speaker 1: there's gonna be opportunities for Christian Brown to slash off
Speaker 1: the wing or to cut along the baseline. Aaron Gordon's
Speaker 1: shooting the ball extremely well for a long time. I
Speaker 1: think he's just a good shooter now, so like he's
Speaker 1: gonna get clean looks as they're having to swarm around Jokic.
Speaker 1: But the Clips do have more traditional matchups for Denver
Speaker 1: stars than vice versa. For Denver, they have to take
Speaker 1: their lowman to occupy Kawhi. That's a problem, that's a
Speaker 1: non traditional thing that messes up the backside of their
Speaker 1: defensive scheme. They literally don't have the ability to contend
Speaker 1: with James Harden. That coverage is gonna get annihilated. They
Speaker 1: don't have traditional matchups there. You go over to the
Speaker 1: other side of the floor and it's like Chris down
Speaker 1: and Derek Jones Junior are a classic chase over the
Speaker 1: top bother pull up shooter type of players. They are
Speaker 1: a clean natural matchup for Jamal Murray. And then, in
Speaker 1: a league that doesn't really have many natural matchups for
Speaker 1: Nikola Jokic, Avita zubats is as close as you can
Speaker 1: get to a natural matchup for NICOLEA Jokic. He's big
Speaker 1: and strong, one of the few players in the league
Speaker 1: that actually has the size to bother Jokic's base a
Speaker 1: little bit. Again, I expect Denver to score, but I
Speaker 1: always look at playoff series in a very basic concept
Speaker 1: the context which team is more likely to make the
Speaker 1: other team uncomfortable. Do you think Denver's defense will make
Speaker 1: the Clippers offense more uncomfortable? Then the Clippers defense will
Speaker 1: make the Denver offense. And for me right now, it
Speaker 1: looks to me like the Clippers would be able to
Speaker 1: make Denver's offense more uncomfortable than the other way around.
Speaker 1: That's just my initial impression. Again, I want to be
Speaker 1: very clear, I've not done my prep yet for the series.
Speaker 1: That's the goal for this week. I'm going to watch
Speaker 1: a ton of film. I'm gonna dig into numbers. I
Speaker 1: might change my mind on this, but my initial impression
Speaker 1: right now is that the Clippers should be favored to
Speaker 1: beat the Nuggets and that I would pick them to
Speaker 1: win that series. Same thing for the Lakers Wolves. These
Speaker 1: are just my initial thoughts. Reserve the right to change
Speaker 1: my mind. But I can tell you as a fan,
Speaker 1: I was experiencing a great deal of anxiety worrying about
Speaker 1: how to guard the Golden State Warriors. They were a
Speaker 1: team that caused me anxiety on both ends of the
Speaker 1: floor because one, I don't think they have the foot
Speaker 1: speed to guard Steph, and then once you start throwing
Speaker 1: a lot of attention at Steph, playmaking talent is how
Speaker 1: you capitalize on that. I'm more worried about super smart,
Speaker 1: high high IQ teams incrementally breaking down the Laker defense
Speaker 1: than teams that can't playmate. The Warriors have all that
Speaker 1: playmaking talent. They were a team that I thought was
Speaker 1: going to be able to score against the Laker defense.
Speaker 1: And then on the other end of the floor, it's
Speaker 1: a team that switches a ton, super high IQ and
Speaker 1: excellent in rotation at like speeding guys up, which I
Speaker 1: thought could cause some problems for Laker role players and
Speaker 1: capitalizing some of the indecision for Luca and Lebron. I
Speaker 1: would have still picked the Lakers versus the Warriors. I
Speaker 1: think they're a better basketball team. But I thought it
Speaker 1: was a really tough matchup, and it was something that
Speaker 1: I was worried about and I didn't want to see,
Speaker 1: and I would rather see after they dealt with Dylan Brooks,
Speaker 1: you know, kicking them in the balls for two straight weeks.
Speaker 1: So that was what I was That was the ideal
Speaker 1: outcome for me Timberwolves as a fan again, And I
Speaker 1: might change mind after digging into the numbers a little bit,
Speaker 1: but and digging into the film, but I think it's
Speaker 1: the perfect matchup for the Lakers as a first round series.
Speaker 1: The only team that I'd feel more confident in them
Speaker 1: beating out of the teams that were beneath them in
Speaker 1: the standings that they could potentially face in the first round.
Speaker 1: The only team I'd feel more confident in them beating
Speaker 1: is Memphis, and Memphis had no chance to get out
Speaker 1: of the eight because they've just been playing really bad
Speaker 1: basketball for a while. This was the team I wanted.
Speaker 1: Here's my basic reasoning, surface level right now, before I
Speaker 1: dig into the film and do the comprehensive breakdown. One
Speaker 1: the Dorian Finney, Smith, Ruby, Hatchamurro lineup. The lineup with Austin,
Speaker 1: Lebron and Luca, the lineup that I've often said is
Speaker 1: the only other team other than Boston with their lineups
Speaker 1: with Horford to perzingis the only other lineup in the
Speaker 1: league that can truly present elite advantage creation with elite
Speaker 1: five out spacing. That's the only lineups in the league
Speaker 1: that can do that right now. Five guys where it's like,
Speaker 1: you can't leave this guy open. If you leave him open,
Speaker 1: he's just gonna hit shots. If you leave Dorian Finn
Speaker 1: Smith open, he's gonna hit shots. If you leave Ruy open,
Speaker 1: he's gonna hit shots. If you leave Austin open, he's
Speaker 1: gonna hit shots. If you leave Lebron open, he's gonna
Speaker 1: hit shots. And Luke is probably gonna have the ball
Speaker 1: most of the time, so like it's a lineup that
Speaker 1: can really truly space the floor, that lineup will either
Speaker 1: play Rudy off the floor or at least neutralize his
Speaker 1: rim protection. Rudy, when he can sit under the basket,
Speaker 1: is a devastating defensive player. When he switches onto the
Speaker 1: perimeter and has help behind him, he's a devastating defensive player.
Speaker 1: When he has to guard in space, his defensive value
Speaker 1: is mitigated a bit because he's not protecting the rim.
Speaker 1: He's defending out on the perimeter, which he does well,
Speaker 1: but not exactly as well as elite perimeter defenders. And
Speaker 1: then is he bringing enough offensively on the other end
Speaker 1: of the floor to justify him being out on the court.
Speaker 1: That is the question we will see if it's very
Speaker 1: possible that we uh seecres Finch basically just be like,
Speaker 1: we're gonna leave Rudy out there, and even if we
Speaker 1: lose some value in certain places, we're gonna gain value elsewhere.
Speaker 1: We'll see, but that unit at the very least should
Speaker 1: be able to neutralize Rudy's rim protection. Once you neutralize
Speaker 1: Rudy's rim protection, now you're allowing Lebron and Luca to
Speaker 1: pick on matchups without having to worry about being deterred
Speaker 1: when they get to the rim. I think that that
Speaker 1: is a huge advantage for the Lakers. Two, the Wolves
Speaker 1: perimeter guys, all their perimeter defenders are way too small
Speaker 1: for Luca. As we saw in the Western Conference Finals
Speaker 1: last year, Jada McDaniels is just too skinny for Luca.
Speaker 1: He can throw him around. He's one of the very
Speaker 1: best perimeter defenders in the league who can't guard Luca.
Speaker 1: And that is like just a really difficult situation to manage,
Speaker 1: right off the stop, right off the top. I wanna
Speaker 1: there's a potential here to like tinker with matchups. So
Speaker 1: you could imagine a situation where you take Jada McDaniel's
Speaker 1: and you put him on Austin Reeves instead, because he
Speaker 1: at the very least can stop Austin Reeves. But then
Speaker 1: it's like, now you're asking Anthony Edwards and Julius Randall
Speaker 1: to guard Lebron James and Luka Doncic, and that's a
Speaker 1: problem because one ant can't navigate screens, So if you
Speaker 1: put him on Luca, he's just gonna run him through screens.
Speaker 1: We saw that at the tail end of the Western
Speaker 1: Conference Finals last year they tried on Luca. It didn't work.
Speaker 1: Put Julius on Luca. Ah, that's gonna be barbecue chicken.
Speaker 1: And yeah, you could put Lebron on you could put
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards on Lebron, but now you're leaving Julius on
Speaker 1: Luca and that's just a huge problem. If you don't
Speaker 1: put Jayden on Austin, Who's guarding Austin? Is it going
Speaker 1: to be Mike Conley? Like Austin's gonna cook Mike Conley?
Speaker 1: Like there's so many different like matchup issues with the
Speaker 1: way that Minnesota can disperse their perimeter talent. If I
Speaker 1: was coaching the Timberwolves, is what I would do is
Speaker 1: I would lean a lot more into like Dante DiVincenzo,
Speaker 1: and I would deploy their best defenders on Lebron in
Speaker 1: Austin and try to mitigate them as much as possible,
Speaker 1: understanding that you're probably not going to do much damage
Speaker 1: to Luca anyway. So maybe like put Jayden on Lebron
Speaker 1: and put Dante on Austin and essentially have those two
Speaker 1: be uncomfortable all series and just see if Luca can
Speaker 1: do enough damage to you and try to wear him
Speaker 1: down with physicality over the course of the series. But
Speaker 1: the bottom line is the Wolf's perimeter guys are just
Speaker 1: not necessarily big and strong enough to bother a Luka
Speaker 1: doncicin Lebron the way that like you see from Houston
Speaker 1: for instance, or when Golden State like deploys Draymond and
Speaker 1: Jimmy on the perimeter and stuff like that like that,
Speaker 1: those options are just not available to Minnesota in this series.
Speaker 1: And then lastly, as an advantage for the Lakers, I think,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned earlier, what worries me the most for
Speaker 1: the Laker defense is playmaking talent. The reason why is
Speaker 1: there's a lot of smoke and mirrors with JJ Redick's defense.
Speaker 1: They don't have rim protection, they don't have a ton
Speaker 1: of elite perimeter defenders that usually are hiding at least
Speaker 1: two targets on the floor at any given time. But
Speaker 1: what they do is they just have a ton of
Speaker 1: like elite defensive game planning in terms of like funneling
Speaker 1: guy into where they specifically want their help side set up.
Speaker 1: They're good in rotation. They've got a couple of athletes
Speaker 1: on the floor all the time that are flying around
Speaker 1: and helping recover situations. You need to break down the
Speaker 1: Laker defense with incremental playmaking, like creating that initial advantage
Speaker 1: and the guy drives a close out and then another
Speaker 1: guy makes a great read and a guy makes a
Speaker 1: smart cut. If you do that kind of stuff, you
Speaker 1: can pick the Lakers apart. And the Warriors have done
Speaker 1: that in their most recent matchup against the Lakers. This
Speaker 1: Timberwolves team is not a good aggregate playmaking team. They're
Speaker 1: a team that I think would be susceptible to a
Speaker 1: lot of the gimmicky stuff that JJ Reddick will do.
Speaker 1: I expect an assortment of double teams against Anthony Edwards.
Speaker 1: I expect a lot of pressure being put on Ants
Speaker 1: to be an elite playmaker in this series. I just
Speaker 1: think from a matchup standpoint, a lot of stuff just
Speaker 1: kind of lines up with the Lakers' strengths and avoids
Speaker 1: some of the Lakers' weaknesses, and so I think it both.
Speaker 1: I think it's just a really favorable matchup for them.
Speaker 1: Now again, where another opportunity for the Timberwolves in this series.
Speaker 1: Where the Lakers struggled in the past with Aunt and
Speaker 1: Julius Anthony Edwards in particular in their last matchup, even
Speaker 1: though the Lakers controlled that matchup from start to finish,
Speaker 1: they were funneling Anthony Edwards. They were doing the same
Speaker 1: defense they used against shake Yos Alexander, So they're funneling
Speaker 1: him towards the sideline, like opening up their stance. Basically,
Speaker 1: they did this against Jalen Brunson too, if you remember
Speaker 1: they used it against Shay. They use it against Jalen.
Speaker 1: They used it. It's basically their defense against elite star
Speaker 1: guards in this league. They funnel him towards the sideline
Speaker 1: with like basically a catch waiting. So a helper like
Speaker 1: that's already zoned up on the strong side outside the block,
Speaker 1: like waiting for that drive. And Ant did have some
Speaker 1: success in that game, being like, oh, you're gonna give
Speaker 1: me a runway, Well, I'm way more athletic than you guys,
Speaker 1: And he would just shoot that gap and he'd be
Speaker 1: right in the teeth of all the help. But he's
Speaker 1: such an elite athlete that he would either just finish
Speaker 1: over everybody or he would do that slow down step
Speaker 1: he does and wait for everybody to la Hi back
Speaker 1: on the ground before he goes back up and score
Speaker 1: An did have some success against that defensive game plan
Speaker 1: before he got ejected in that game. And then lastly,
Speaker 1: Julius Randall over the years has had some success against
Speaker 1: Ruey Hotcha Mura. It's something I've talked about on the
Speaker 1: show before, the idea of like holding ground with your shoulder.
Speaker 1: Ruey has a little bit of a tendency to give
Speaker 1: ground against physicality, and so if Ruy Hatcha Mura gets
Speaker 1: the Julius Randall matchup instead of Lebron James to start
Speaker 1: the game, that's something I could see Ruey having some
Speaker 1: issues with. It's very possible that the Lakers deploy Lebron
Speaker 1: on Jaden McDaniels thinking they can use him as a roamer,
Speaker 1: and I think they could end up in some situations
Speaker 1: where Julius gets comfortable if they do that. So I
Speaker 1: don't want to sit here and pretend like Minnesota doesn't
Speaker 1: have advantages. They obviously do. I just think the Lakers
Speaker 1: have more advantages in this matchup. This was the matchup
Speaker 1: that I was most comfortable with as a first round
Speaker 1: series for the Lakers other than Memphis. Again, we're gonna
Speaker 1: do a deep dive as we get later into this week,
Speaker 1: but those are my initial impressions. It's all I have
Speaker 1: for today is always a sincerely appreciate you guys for
Speaker 1: supporting me and supporting the show. I will see you
Speaker 1: guys tomorrow morning with series previews on the Bucks and
Speaker 1: the Pacers and the Pistons and the Knicks, and then
Speaker 1: again tomorrow night for the Warriors play. As always, appreciate
Speaker 1: you guys, and I will see you that. What's up guys,
Speaker 1: As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting
Speaker 1: OOPS tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us
Speaker 1: if you guys would take a second and leave a
Speaker 1: rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys
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