WEBVTT - Bloomberg Wall Street Week: Micklethwait, Haass 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.360 This is Bloomberg Wall st Week. What's the state of 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:06.360 corporate governance? The deficit is a real issue. The US 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:09.920 economy continues to send mixed signals. The financial stories that 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:13.000 cheap our world fed action to con concerns over dollar 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:16.520 liquidity and encouraging China data. The five hundred wealthiest people 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.160 in the world. Through the eyes of the most influential 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:22.520 voices Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, star Ward CEO, 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:26.360 Kevin Johnson sec Chairman J Clayton, Bloomberg wool Street Week 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:31.080 with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. A year like no other, 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:35.160 from the pandemic to race relations to foreign relations, as 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:38.400 told through the books we read. Welcome to a special 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.360 year end edition of Bloomberg Wall Street Week. I'm David 0:00:41.400 --> 0:00:45.479 Weston this week special contributor to Larry Summers of Harvard, 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:50.880 Bloomberg editor in Chief, John Micklethwaite Westmore of the Robin 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:55.480 Hood Foundation, and Richard has of the Council on Foreign Relations. 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:59.040 We spent the year glued to our screens, whether it 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:02.120 was a terminal or a laptop, or a smartphone, or 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:04.679 just to play an old television set, and the headlines 0:01:04.720 --> 0:01:07.440 came in faster than we could really absorb them, going 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:10.920 back and forth among COVID nineteen and a presidential election 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:14.520 and gyra, any markets and stark reminders of the very 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:17.840 different lives that we lead based on our wraiths and 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:21.240 our ethnicity and our economic status. But even as we 0:01:21.240 --> 0:01:23.880 struggle to keep up with the day today, it is 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:26.679 not too soon to start thinking about the larger themes, 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:30.000 the longer arc of history that we are living through. 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:32.080 And there is no better way to do that than 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:34.600 to read some of the books that were published during 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:37.600 this year. And so we have this special installment of 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.440 Wall Street Week given over to books that were published 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:43.440 this year, seeing his history through the eyes of some 0:01:43.480 --> 0:01:46.000 of the authors who are making us think and reflect. 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:49.240 We begin, as we must, with the pandemic and what 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:51.280 it showed us about how we deal with the crisis 0:01:51.520 --> 0:01:54.960 and whether our governments are up to it. Bloomberg Editor 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:58.640 in chief John Mikeltway joined with economist author Adrian Waldrich 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:01.560 to bring us the wake up call, a penetrating look 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:04.720 at which countries worked and which did not well. The 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:08.640 very short answer is that Britain and America, you know, 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:10.959 to the countries that have led the world have done 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:15.120 it incredibly badly. Um if just monitored by the number 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:18.639 of deaths per million, well over eight hundred deaths per million. 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:22.320 By contrast Germany down round a hundred and fifty, and 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:27.959 especially these Asian countries Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, you 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.400 know they're they're in very small numbers three, sometimes as 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:34.480 a few as five deaths per million, sometimes twenty thirty 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:37.520 deaths per million, and so there has been a real difference, 0:02:37.520 --> 0:02:41.359 as you put, between good government and bad government. Indeed, 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:44.040 government has been the difference between living and dying in 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:48.240 many places. And what accounts for that. There are various theories. 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:50.840 I mean, for example, the Asia, particularly Taiwan, Korea, and 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:53.040 something that China done well because it's more of a 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:57.600 collectivist approach to society rather than individualistic. I think we 0:02:57.639 --> 0:03:00.200 should come back to China in a second. But on 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:02.399 the on the broad terms, I think that's a too 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:06.040 good an excuse for the West, on too several different levels. Firstly, 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:09.120 if you look at any measure of other things to 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:12.400 do with state efficiency schools, you know who's whose schools 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:15.000 are doing well. It's the same set of countries are 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.760 doing well. Whose whose general health systems lead to long 0:03:17.800 --> 0:03:21.560 life expectancy. The same thing virtually every barometer of whether 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.359 a government is working well or not. There's been moving 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:27.640 in Asia's direction over the past twenty thirty years. And 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:29.360 it's just that's the reason why it's a wake up 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:33.680 called the argument consensus. Yes, there is an advantage there, 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:35.760 but it's the kind of advantage which gives you a 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:39.600 ten or advantage. It's not the sort of advantage which 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:45.120 explains somebody being twenty or thirty times better. I mean, you, David, 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:47.360 mostly in our day jobs, when we look at a 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:50.960 company and one company is sort of twenty better than 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.680 another one, you think that other ones in trouble. In 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:57.440 this case, countries were twenty times better. And that brings 0:03:57.440 --> 0:03:59.520 me on the second thing. If you look at South Korea, 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:03.200 look at Soul, London and New York, they're roughly the 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:06.680 same size. It souls a little bit bigger, and yet 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:09.920 New York has lost over twenty five thousand people, London 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:14.160 well over six thousand, Souls lost a few dozen. And 0:04:14.240 --> 0:04:16.880 this is the place that bought parasite. It's a place 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.840 with some of the world's largest nightclubs. It's a place 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:21.960 that bought K pop, which I know you listened to 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:26.760 all the time. It's a vibrant, chaotic, democratic city with 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:30.000 a lot of creativity, crowded subways, huge things. It's got 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:32.800 exactly the same kind of dynamic as London or New York. 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:35.200 It just happens to be a lot better run, and 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:38.520 it's run because people have paid attention to government. How 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:40.760 much of it is because of the leadership the particular 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:44.120 people involved, That's a really good question. And again I 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:46.320 think this is where America particularly has to be a 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:47.920 bit careful. And I think there are a lot of 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.600 Americans who think that because Donald Trump did a bad 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:53.040 job with COVID, and I think by most people standards, 0:04:53.240 --> 0:04:55.839 he did do a very bad job. Um that, so 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:57.919 to speak, the problem is solved. And I think that 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:01.520 just isn't true. You look at the fundamental reason why 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:04.159 America was bad at this, it's because it has a 0:05:04.160 --> 0:05:06.839 health care system that's designed to look after the rich 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.400 and the old. So any a pandemic hits everybody, hits 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:13.800 the poor particularly, so America was always bound to be exposed. 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.320 And you look at the other things wrong with American government, 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:20.479 racist policing, Well, you know, Donald Trump may not have 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:23.440 helped that much, but I covered Rodney King in Los 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:26.039 Angeles thirty years ago. That has been going on a 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:29.839 long time. Look at American schools, okay, the twentieth or thirtieth, 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:32.400 depending how you measure it. In the world when it 0:05:32.440 --> 0:05:36.040 comes to education, there's education tables that the Asians come 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.600 top in, but that's been going on for years. To 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:40.760 Trump may not have done much to help. It said 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:44.360 that the structural problems with the American state go much 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:46.440 deeper than just one man. It is to do with 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.400 the fact that the Republicans don't have any answers to 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:51.720 do with government other and to make it smaller, and 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:55.279 the Democrats two wedded to the public sector unions to 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:58.000 engage with the reform. And as long as that continues, 0:05:58.080 --> 0:06:00.240 America is going to have that problem that any big 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.479 crisis is public sector is not going to be much good. 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:06.280 That was John Michels Waite, editor in chief of Bloomberg 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:10.120 and author of The wake Up Call Coming Up. America's 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:13.600 long struggle with race came to the four again with 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:17.240 the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, and Westmore of 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.640 the Robin Hood Foundation took us through the anatomy of 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:23.400 a similar incident in Baltimore five years ago, when Freddie 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:27.400 Gray was killed. That's next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:36.599 This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:40.159 Bloomberg Radio. This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:43.240 The United States was rocked this year by a series 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:47.120 of police killings of unarmed black citizens, including that of 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:50.640 George Floyd in Minneapolis and Brianna Taylor in Louisville. And 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:52.919 this is just the latest in a long line of 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:56.440 such incidents through American history, revealing the deep divisions in 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:59.640 our society. Westmore, the head of the Robin Hood Foundation, 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:02.159 had written about one of these. It was the killing 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:05.160 of Freddy Gray in Baltimore back in two fifteen, and 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:07.880 west lays out what happened, what led to it, and 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.760 what the aftermath was from a variety of perspectives. I'm 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:15.120 a Baltimore native and in many ways Baltimore City helped 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.840 to raise me. Uh and I I one of the 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:20.760 things that really struck me about Freddy's story was, you know, 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:24.680 I I I unfortunately have been to many funerals before 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:27.680 my life, but his funeral was the first funeral that 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.280 I had ever been to, when the person who was 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:33.400 laying in the casket I never knew in life, and 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:37.000 that haunted me because pretty Rays funeral was a big 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:40.880 deal in Baltimore. But then the thing that really helped 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:43.280 to to to trigger wanting to write this book and 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:46.320 tell this story was was not just the horror of 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:48.480 his death, but in many ways the horror of his life. 0:07:48.720 --> 0:07:50.440 And that's what I want. I wanted to uncap when 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:54.160 I wanted to uncover, and you say, I'll just read 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:56.960 a bit from the prologue here. You say we had 0:07:57.040 --> 0:07:59.760 come from similar places, you and Freddy Gray, but I 0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:02.280 had been so fortunate, so blessed, And you're going to 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:05.160 talk about your mother and your grandparents and the breaks 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:06.920 you got along the way. How does it happen that 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:10.280 two people with similar sorts of situations can take such 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.800 divergent paths. Well, you know, I think that one of 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:15.240 the things I wanted to be able to look at 0:08:15.320 --> 0:08:17.800 is when you look at the life of Freddy Gray, 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:20.720 for for so much of us, particularly for individuals, all 0:08:20.760 --> 0:08:23.520 of us who feel like we're coming out from the 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:27.560 margins right where where this wasn't always destined that we 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:30.000 can end up being there. There are a lot of 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.280 factors that play into it, but one of the big 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:36.440 factors that plays into unfortunately is luck. It's it's had 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:39.200 getting getting a break that someone else might not get, 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.320 an opportunity that someone else might not get, and and 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:44.760 the idea that we would have or can have a 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:48.880 society that is relying on luck as a prerequisite in 0:08:48.960 --> 0:08:51.320 order for people to be able to move from one 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:54.320 position to another to another position is really hard. And 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:57.120 you think about Freddie's life in particular. Uh, you know, 0:08:57.200 --> 0:09:03.040 Freddie was born premature, under eight, addicted to heroin. His 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:05.760 mother never made it to high school. She couldn't read 0:09:05.840 --> 0:09:09.959 or write. She has these twins, Freddy and his twin sister, Frederika. 0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:12.400 By the time they had gained enough weight to actually 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.200 leave the hospital, they moved into a housing project in 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:19.320 West Baltimore that had endemic levels of lead inside of 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:23.680 the home. And so Freddy Gray is now underweight, addicted 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:26.760 to heroin, lead poisoned, and by this time in his 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:30.400 life he's two years old. And so it gets back 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:33.200 to this larger point of did Freddy Gray even have 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:36.480 a chance, did he even have a shot, or was 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:40.160 that last interaction that he had where where he was, 0:09:40.200 --> 0:09:43.440 where he died, was killed in police custody for the 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:47.080 crime of making eye contact with police which triggered probable cause. 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:52.400 Was that a just want the last system to break 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:56.320 in the life of Freddy Gray. Well, see, that's what 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:58.160 I found. One of the things I found very powerful 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.160 in this book is obviously what happened with the police 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:03.959 was inexcusable. Police officers were indicted, although I don't think 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:06.319 they were convicted, but it was inexcusable what happened in 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.120 the police fan But the problem with Freddy Gray started 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:11.400 away past that. And when you talk about systems, we 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:15.640 talk about systemic racism, systemic inequality. It's a series of systems. 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:18.120 There's a lot of systems here that put Freddy Gray 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:20.600 in the wrong place and for that matter, put police 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:23.240 in the wrong place at the same time. That's exactly right. 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:24.840 I mean, when you look at the life of Freddy Gray, 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:28.440 every every system failed him. Uh, you know, the education system. 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:30.960 When when the last day of attendance that he had 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:35.040 recorded in Baltimore City Public schools was in tenth grade, 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:37.120 when he was nineteen years old, he had been in 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:41.319 special education developmental coursework his entire academic career because of 0:10:41.360 --> 0:10:45.320 the lead poisoning. The CDC indicates that five microbes of 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:48.199 lead and every decolet of blood is enough to give 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:50.640 him a person cognitive damage for the rest of their life. 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:54.040 Freddy Gray had thirty six, and so this was a 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:57.679 young man who, from the earliest ages from from room 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:01.320 being a toddler, was going to be cognitively damaged for 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:03.120 the rest of his life because of something he had 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:05.600 absolutely zero to do with. And now is that the 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:07.320 fact that the home that he was living in and 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.920 the water that he was drinking was making him sick. 0:11:10.240 --> 0:11:13.000 And so when you're looking at all these various systems 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:16.160 that then were in place and just were not in 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.400 place in the life of Freddy Gray, uh, it forces 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:21.360 all of us to understand that this is not just 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:25.040 going to be about policing. Performing the police department is 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:29.800 necessary and it is imperative. However, we also have to 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.240 understand that the amount of systems and the amount of 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:36.720 touches that Freddy Gray had in broken systems throughout led 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.080 to the to the idea that that last interaction with 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:42.600 the broken system without one broken system, was just kind 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.040 of a continuation of a lot of the larger life 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:48.679 challenges that he was facing, and I want to take 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:50.520 us through some of the concrete steps, because you have 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:53.640 constricrete steps in your book that should be taken. But 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.120 before that, this is a story about Freddy Gray, but 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.840 it's also the story about eight other individuals. Uh. It's 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.280 a it's a really interest in compelling way to tell 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.240 the story sort of Russiaman from different people's points of 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:08.080 view at the time over those critical five days that 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.520 were really Baltimore was on fire. Gives a sense of 0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:15.040 some of those characters that you identify. I tell you, David, 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:16.400 it was one of the things that I actually loved 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:19.280 about the story because if if Baltimore, Baltimore is one thing, 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:22.160 it's full of characters. And I was hearing it from 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.720 every single strata of our society about what people thought 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:29.160 about what happened, and what were the lessons learned, and 0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.680 and so I really wanted to then take some of 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.480 those conversations that I was having personally with people and 0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:36.400 share them with the world. And so I broke it 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.800 down to these eight characters. You know, Uh, a police 0:12:39.880 --> 0:12:43.320 major who grew up in West Baltimore, who was having 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:45.240 conversations with me where he said he's one of the 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:48.559 highest ranking African Americans on the police force, but he 0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:50.760 was having conversation and it would say, you know, I 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.160 know that none of my colleagues woke up that morning 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.080 with homicide in their mind. But I also know for 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.679 the kids in West Baltimore why they don't believe me. 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.120 You know a woman who lost her brother to police 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.960 violence just eighteen months earlier in Baltimore City, and who 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:08.680 was loving the fact that Baltimore was rising up and 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.800 Baltimore was was was marching and doing something about this, 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:14.480 but also was feeling a real sense of frustration because 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:17.120 she's basically saying to herself, but where was this when 0:13:17.120 --> 0:13:19.679 my brother was killed by police and no one had 0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:23.439 anything to say. You know a basketball star turn protester, 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:25.840 the son of the owner of the Baltimore Orioles, who 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.320 was the head of baseball operations. So when the Baltimore 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:30.920 Orioles played the Chicago White Sox and for the first 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:32.920 time in baseball history, they played a game and the 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.920 official attendance was zero because the city was in the 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.720 state of emergency. He was one of the final people 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:41.200 to make the call and say I want to play 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.520 the game even if there's no fans in there, because 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:45.679 I want the world to see this. And so by 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:49.679 looking at it through these various sets of eyes, by 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:51.439 looking at it through people who come up and represent 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.120 different stratas of our society, you know, we really wanted 0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:57.719 to show a kaleidoscope of how complex so many of 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:01.199 these situations are, but also how it's still fundamentally colms 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:05.880 down to two disparate issues, its race and its poverty, 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.640 and how those two beasts have a way of coinciding 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.480 to create pretty disastrous results if we are not dealing 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:16.040 with them. That was Westmore, head of the Robin Hood Foundation, 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:19.320 an author of Five Days, The Fiery Reckoning of an 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:23.160 American city. Coming up in a year full of ups 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:27.320 and downs, energy was no exception. Expert Dan Jurgen put 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:29.880 it all in a broader context in his book The 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:34.320 New Map That's Next. On Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:44.160 This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David Weston from 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:47.400 Bloomberg Radio. This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:51.840 The pandemic hit worldwide, demand for oil hard, leaving OPEC 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:54.320 plus scrambling throughout the year to figure out how to 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.640 respond to that fall in demand. Dan Jurgen of I 0:14:57.840 --> 0:14:59.960 H S Market kept us abreast of all of the 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.440 has changes, but also put it in the larger context 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:04.760 of how we are shifting the way we get our 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:07.360 energy and use our energy, all of which is covered 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.000 in his new book, The New Map. I think it's 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:12.480 an evolution that's going on, but I was recently with 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:15.240 a bunch of the leaders of the electric power industry. 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:18.800 They do look to be net zero carbon by or 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:22.720 many of them are moving that direction. Other parts of it. 0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:25.440 I think it evolves over time. There are two eight 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:28.200 million cars in the United States and about two hundred 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:30.440 seventy nine million run on gasoline, and I don't think 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:32.640 people are going to throw away their cars. So I 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.440 think it's this is the longer evolution, and I think 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:37.760 there's what's happens in the US, but the US remembers 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:41.040 only fifteen percent of CEO two emissions, China's twice that. 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:45.680 India other emerging markets are looking towards commercial energy to 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:48.520 get away from burning wood and waste in people's houses 0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:50.880 with their health consequences. So I think this is something 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:55.119 that unfolds time directionally, where it's going. That's clear directionally 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.320 in the timing really matters, and the bets can be 0:15:57.400 --> 0:15:59.680 rather substantial. In your book, you point out how many 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:02.240 obs you know, I think there's ten million are tied 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.800 to the energy industry. We also have trillions of dollars globally. 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:08.160 Who's putting bets on which side of this? And we 0:16:08.200 --> 0:16:11.480 saw a report today that Xson basically internal documents leaked 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:13.880 suggests that Exon is not moving as quickly as maybe 0:16:13.920 --> 0:16:17.720 some others away from fossil fuel emissions. China certainly might benefit. 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:20.000 You point out in your book, Russia, maybe not. Who's 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:22.160 betting on which side of Well, let me say I 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:25.400 think the X and thing, of course that's still unfolding story. 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:28.240 But I think what's happening is all major companies now 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:31.400 are looking at their at their at their emissions and 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:33.200 saying what are they going to be? And then the 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:36.200 question becomes how do you mitigate them? And in the 0:16:36.240 --> 0:16:38.000 in the New Map, you know, there's this whole chapter 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:42.000 called Breakthrough Technologies, based upon the work that Ernie more Needs, 0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:44.680 a former Energy secretary, and I did for lead for 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:48.760 Bill Gates Foundation and Breakthrough Energy Coalition about the technologies 0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:51.400 we need, and one of them that's really very major 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:55.040 is what's called carbon capture carbon mitigation. Simply when you 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:57.800 look at the numbers, and I think that's where you 0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:02.080 know we're going to see increase uh investment going in 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:04.760 terms of research on that to meet it. In terms 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:08.960 of countries, China is a significant winner here because it didn't, 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:13.080 unlike the US, it imports its oil and it regards 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.320 that as a major strategic problem, particularly in the geopolitical 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.480 issues that are now developing, and it has a dominant 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:21.840 position in many of what you might call that they 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:25.119 call the new energies. For instance, about sevent the solar 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:27.760 panels of the world are made in China, another ten 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:32.480 percent by Chinese companies, and it's Chinese manufacturing that's partly 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:36.400 responsible for this revolutionist solar costs which have come way down, 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:39.199 so you know they would be a big beneficiary of this. 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:42.440 One of the things that I was surprised I learned 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:45.480 from your book is the Department Energy under President Trump 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:48.560 is investing an awful lot of money in research, science 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:52.080 and research, some of which actually has to go to renewables. 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:56.080 Right uh. Six and a half billion dollars in UM 0:17:56.160 --> 0:18:00.119 in basic science research, and that's the foundation, really, the 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:04.320 true foundation of an energy transition, and that's been pretty consistent. 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:08.879 That has been one area of bipartisan cooperation in seeing 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:11.560 the importance of maintaining that commitment. And this is where 0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:14.040 the U strength really comes from, which is we have 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:18.399 this incredible ecosystem that goes from seventy national labs, that 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:22.520 kind of expenditure, universities, companies, startups. No other country has 0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:26.960 that advantage in new technologies take wind and solar there 0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:29.560 those are fifty years old industries, but it's only in 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:32.880 the last ten years that they've really become so competitive. 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.080 So it takes time, and so the investment you make 0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:37.440 now really pays off, but it can take ten or 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.320 twenty years from now. Dan draw one other contrast that 0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:42.760 again I got from your book, the New Map, and 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.440 that is between Russia, which is very dependent on fossil 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.479 fuels goodness knows, and Saudi Arabia, which is also very 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:51.560 matter but they have that vision campaign going. Do is 0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:54.000 Russia have anything similar to that about what comes after 0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:57.040 fossil fuels? No, I don't think so. I mean a 0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.840 gladim Our Putent said, it's great, O. Our budget is 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:03.560 own nowt to oil instead of being oil that money 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:05.960 coming from it. But I think Russia has been talking 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:10.840 about diversification for UH for twenty years since Putin came 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:14.280 to power, and it's really not happening. In fact, I 0:19:14.320 --> 0:19:16.880 was at a conference where I asked Putin that question. 0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:20.680 He and Chancellor Merkel were on the platform about diversification, 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.399 but we got sidetracked because I mentioned shale and he 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.080 really doesn't like US shale. So he he gave me 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:29.040 his UH, his his opinions on that, which were pretty strong. 0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:31.879 So I think Saudi Arabia is trying to do it, 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:34.320 but you know, it's hard to shift an economy that 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.520 is so dependent upon oil. It was hard before COVID, 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.240 it's more difficult right now. And I think one of 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:42.680 the things that saudis it's clear to them in order 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:46.040 to diversify away from oil, you actually need some oil revenues. 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.119 That was Dan Jurgen, vice chairman of i h S 0:19:49.160 --> 0:19:52.080 Market and author of the New Map. Coming up, we 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:54.600 end this special edition of Wall Street Week with Larry 0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:58.120 Summers and his book Picks for the Year. That's next 0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:13.720 on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:17.920 Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. We are 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:21.040 back with our special contributor Larry Summers of Harvard for 0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:23.760 his view on some books this year that really stood 0:20:23.760 --> 0:20:26.359 out for him. So, Larry, what books really made an 0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:29.080 impression on you this year? There are three that I'm 0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:33.159 going to comment on, David. Uh. The first is my 0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:40.640 former boss, Barack Obama's UH memoir. Politicians memoirs are usually 0:20:41.400 --> 0:20:52.280 ghost written exercises in self justification and in rewarding UH 0:20:52.760 --> 0:21:00.800 the politicians UH friends with compliments. UH. President Obama's UH 0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:08.480 book is obviously self written. It is much more candid 0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:15.080 than most such memoirs. Like all of US, President Obama 0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:22.399 sees himself in a basically favorable light, but with much 0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:33.520 more admission of uncertainty, of possible regret, and much more 0:21:33.560 --> 0:21:40.760 candor in his portraits of events, UH and ideas. And So, 0:21:40.920 --> 0:21:46.000 if one's looking for a government memoir or a political 0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:51.200 memoir that gives a feeling of what it's like, UH 0:21:51.359 --> 0:21:56.480