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Speaker 2: brilliant summary of the history of index concentration in portfolio concentration.
Speaker 2: And I didn't realize, you know, the way we have
Speaker 2: the big techno, this has been normal this. You know,
Speaker 2: there's other times it's been like this, you know, the
Speaker 2: sixties or the fifties.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure that's necessarily a healthy aspect of
Speaker 3: the market. I mean again, this, you don't know this,
Speaker 3: you know, focus on a handful of stocks, a dozen
Speaker 3: stocks in terms of the market capitalization.
Speaker 4: But that's where we are tap with big tech.
Speaker 2: We bring it up because Sarah Hunt joins us right now.
Speaker 2: Sarah Hunt with Alpine Woods Capital Investors. The top ten
Speaker 2: stocks and are holding make up one hundred and forty
Speaker 2: two percent of the portfolio. Have you ever seen it
Speaker 2: this concentrated?
Speaker 5: Good morning.
Speaker 6: I have not, and I think that that is something
Speaker 6: that we were discussing last year. It is something that
Speaker 6: is going to continue to be well. But also we
Speaker 6: were talking about last year because you had the top
Speaker 6: seven right, they were a big percentage. They had to
Speaker 6: reboalac the S and P last year in the middle
Speaker 6: of the year, which they don't usually do because the
Speaker 6: concentration got so high. So that is something that we're
Speaker 6: going to continue to contend the lesson.
Speaker 2: I mean, the fact is the index is the index.
Speaker 2: If that's the numbers, that's the numbers. So they basically
Speaker 2: made up fictional numbers because they thought the concentration was
Speaker 2: too much.
Speaker 6: Well, I don't think that anyone anticipated the concentration becoming
Speaker 6: this high, because you didn't think that you were gonna
Speaker 6: have capitalization weighted that we become.
Speaker 5: Like in video just reached a trillion dollars, So you
Speaker 5: didn't think that that was going to happen that fast.
Speaker 2: There's been a We've just got the story out from
Speaker 2: Van Vasilika of the four hundred and seventy billion dollar
Speaker 2: rally in Apple. Are these things under owned? Is that
Speaker 2: really the shock here that in Video or Apple are
Speaker 2: actually under owned by American Wall Street?
Speaker 6: Well, given the concentration in the SMP, relatively speaking, you
Speaker 6: could say yes about some of that. I think that
Speaker 6: even when people bought Nvidia as it was moving up,
Speaker 6: it was racing so far ahead, and it was getting
Speaker 6: a more and more side of the index where even
Speaker 6: if you owned it, you were underweight. And I think
Speaker 6: Apple went through somewhat of a correction and somewhat of
Speaker 6: a left behind era. And I don't think that people
Speaker 6: were holding as much Apple as the S ANDP is holding.
Speaker 6: But there's a risk to that too, because when something
Speaker 6: like Apple has a downdraft all of a sudden, if
Speaker 6: you're eight percent Apple like the index was, that's a
Speaker 6: big problem for your portfolio.
Speaker 3: So what, you know, what are you suggesting folks do
Speaker 3: these days chase those magnificent whatever number they are, or
Speaker 3: try to sign try to find value outside of those
Speaker 3: big tech names.
Speaker 6: I think it's a combination of the two because I
Speaker 6: chase is a word that I hate to use, but
Speaker 6: the big tech stocks that are generating tons of cash,
Speaker 6: it's difficult to say I don't want them in my portfolio,
Speaker 6: even though the valuations continue to rise, because they're not
Speaker 6: in any kind of trouble. This is not the dot
Speaker 6: com era, where a lot of the stocks that were
Speaker 6: running were stocks that had to be financed by their vendors.
Speaker 6: These are companies that can pay for all of the
Speaker 6: Nvidios chips.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 6: This is Google and Meta. These are companies that can
Speaker 6: pay for the stuff that Google that Nvidia is building.
Speaker 6: But I also think you have to look around and
Speaker 6: say there are other areas of the market that are
Speaker 6: under owned. I can look for good dividends, I can
Speaker 6: look for good cash flow, I can look for things
Speaker 6: like fivebacks, and I can look for areas where I
Speaker 6: don't have to worry as much about that multiple. And
Speaker 6: then I can see what happens with the FED, because
Speaker 6: that's a whole other iteration.
Speaker 2: At the minute, right, Paul Downdrift the pandemic Apple down
Speaker 2: to thirty five percent into the October bottom. The ed
Speaker 2: YARDENI relp F income were a bottom. Apple down twenty
Speaker 2: nine percent.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so those are the draw down. Those are the
Speaker 4: draw down there. So you know, Sarah, I mean a
Speaker 4: lot of things. How do you guys start off.
Speaker 3: With just your allocations these days equity versus fixed income?
Speaker 3: Because I'm very happy sitting them into your treasure getting
Speaker 3: daring close to five percent.
Speaker 6: It depends a lot on the investor themselves, and you know,
Speaker 6: we manage a combination of individual accounts and then also funds.
Speaker 6: So I think that you know, you're looking at what
Speaker 6: someone's where they are in their investment life cycle, matters
Speaker 6: a lot about what your fixed income allocation is going
Speaker 6: to be, and also what their risk tolerance is. There
Speaker 6: are some people that even though bonds have actually now
Speaker 6: have a yield, which they didn't for a decade and
Speaker 6: a half, people got so used to not owning bonds
Speaker 6: that they look at equity returns and they say five
Speaker 6: percent is not enough. But then you have a bad
Speaker 6: year like twenty twenty two, and you think, you know,
Speaker 6: it would have been nice, although bonds had their own
Speaker 6: problems in twenty twenty two. So I think that there
Speaker 6: is a good case to be made for having having
Speaker 6: an allocation to bonds.
Speaker 5: It depends on who you are, where you are in
Speaker 5: that cycle.
Speaker 6: And we also manage some balanced accounts so that also
Speaker 6: you want some of that fixed income. And finally it's
Speaker 6: helping you after years of not being available.
Speaker 2: Do you see dividend growth? We just asked Cantopolis or
Speaker 2: Richard Bernstein this, do you see dividend growth? Is a
Speaker 2: yield equivalent? Is it competing with yield the Sweeney two year?
Speaker 5: I think that it is.
Speaker 6: I think depending on the sector and depending on what
Speaker 6: the company can do. I don't want to see a
Speaker 6: yield that's growing because someone's going into debt to pay
Speaker 6: that dividend. But if I've got if I've got growing
Speaker 6: cash low and I can increase the dividend, it's not
Speaker 6: necessarily going to give me what a two year is.
Speaker 5: But I also have some potential capital appreciation.
Speaker 4: On the side.
Speaker 2: Say, the math of this is thirty percent of stocks succeed,
Speaker 2: seventy percent of stocks that don't. How do you choose
Speaker 2: that thirty percent winners? Right now? Looking out three years
Speaker 2: or five years, what's a key determinant?
Speaker 6: Well, I think that that requires looking into what or
Speaker 6: having a discussion about where you think things are going.
Speaker 6: If you look at the whole technology space that's getting
Speaker 6: bigger and bigger and bigger, and has been.
Speaker 5: For the last decade.
Speaker 6: It used to be it ran on cycles that were
Speaker 6: attached to things like PCs and phones.
Speaker 5: Now it's going on cycles of what is the car build?
Speaker 5: What is this?
Speaker 6: The industrial absorption of technology and the absorption of technology
Speaker 6: across the board has been incredibly rapid. Is that going
Speaker 6: to change in the next three to five years?
Speaker 5: I don't think so. Does it matter what you pay
Speaker 5: for these things? Yes? It does.
Speaker 6: So you have to keep an eye on both what
Speaker 6: you anticipate to happen and sort of say where are
Speaker 6: industry is going to have problems? People right now think
Speaker 6: the energy industry is going away. It's going to be
Speaker 6: a much longer tail than people think. But it's a
Speaker 6: difficult area to have exposure to because people don't like
Speaker 6: it as much. But there is a longer term reality
Speaker 6: that we are going to be needing fossil fuels for
Speaker 6: a lot longer than people want to admit.
Speaker 3: So, I guess, just setting back here, how about valuation
Speaker 3: for this market. We've seen stocks run here, We've had
Speaker 3: good earnings. I'm not sure if the earnings are good
Speaker 3: enough to support the moves we've seen in this market
Speaker 3: over the last twelve months.
Speaker 4: How do you think about valuation?
Speaker 6: Well, that's also it ends up being sector dependent as well,
Speaker 6: because you see that the value since the technology sector
Speaker 6: are higher. You've seen some of that come down as
Speaker 6: the ship as the spend has shifted from things like
Speaker 6: software to things like chips. Right, So there's a change
Speaker 6: there and you have to be careful because some of
Speaker 6: those valuations and technology are very high.
Speaker 2: Do you care about Apple today? Are you going to
Speaker 2: acquire shares with this meeting?
Speaker 5: We own Apple already, so do we want it to go? Well?
Speaker 6: Yes, Am I going to add more to it at
Speaker 6: the moment? Probably not, because you just had this stock
Speaker 6: rally back another ten fifteen.
Speaker 4: Percent less marketing.
Speaker 6: It's an amazing it had, but it had a huge rally.
Speaker 6: So that was but you didn't sell it when it
Speaker 6: went down, right, because that's the participation that you can
Speaker 6: have to continue to have.
Speaker 2: Sure, thank you so much, good stuff, Sarah Hunt, Thank
Speaker 2: you so much.
Speaker 3: Lori Cavasina joins us now from the lawn at the
Speaker 3: University of Virginia, Head of US Equity Strategy RBC Capital Markets.
Speaker 4: So LORII.
Speaker 3: What happens if this feeder reserve says, you know what,
Speaker 3: the data does not support a rate cut.
Speaker 4: What happens to the market here?
Speaker 1: All right, well, thanks for having me as always, And look,
Speaker 1: I think that's a fantastic question if you want to
Speaker 1: just go purely by the numbers, when we walk through
Speaker 1: that kind of scenario, getting you know, just no moves,
Speaker 1: further moves by the Fed this year, no cuts, no hikes,
Speaker 1: STICKI er inflation than anticipated, and say tenure yields, you know,
Speaker 1: sort of settle out around the recent highs our Work
Speaker 1: says that knocks the pe multiple down a little bit
Speaker 1: below twenty one and pulls the s and P five hundred.
Speaker 1: If you're looking on my earnings, which are two thirty seven,
Speaker 1: around forty nine hundred. If you're looking a little more
Speaker 1: generously at consensus earnings, which are around two forty five,
Speaker 1: you get closer to fifty one hundred. But either way,
Speaker 1: you know, I think we think there's some modest downside
Speaker 1: from here. We do think at this point in time,
Speaker 1: based on our modeling, this idea of getting one maybe
Speaker 1: two cuts and you know, kind of inflation coming down
Speaker 1: to two six on PCE that seems to be fully
Speaker 1: reflected in stock prices around fifty three hundred if you
Speaker 1: use the consensus earnings numbers. So I think we're fairly
Speaker 1: priced for that rosy scenario now, and if we don't
Speaker 1: get it, not a ton of damage to the market,
Speaker 1: but some modest impacts.
Speaker 3: Are you surprised, Laurie that the market has risen? I
Speaker 3: guess we're twelve percent or so somewhat this year, despite
Speaker 3: the fact that this market again went into the year
Speaker 3: discounting maybe five or six rate cuts and now we're
Speaker 3: down to maybe one or two. Despite that reduction in
Speaker 3: the FED dubbishness, the stock market's kind of risen here
Speaker 3: twelve percent.
Speaker 4: Are you surprised by that?
Speaker 1: Well, you know, I think it's surprising from a FED
Speaker 1: inflation interest rate angle. I think if you put it
Speaker 1: in the context of all these conflicting cross currents that
Speaker 1: we have the big tailwind that's actually I think responsible
Speaker 1: for most of that appreciation is the economic tailwind. And
Speaker 1: so I love these stats. But if you look at
Speaker 1: the ECFC data on Bloomberg, and I look at this
Speaker 1: stuff every Friday, and you can track the consensus GDP
Speaker 1: forecasts on the street. If you look at the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four number last summer, it was point six percent
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four on real GDP on the annual basis.
Speaker 1: If you looked at that stat in January, it was
Speaker 1: one point three percent, and then I think it was
Speaker 1: sometime in February we saw big melt up and it
Speaker 1: crossed over the two percent mark, and now I believe
Speaker 1: it's sitting around two point four percent or so. Zero
Speaker 1: to two percent GDP is typically very weak for the
Speaker 1: equity market. Two to four typically you get, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of a twelve to thirteen percent type gain, and
Speaker 1: that's about what we've gotten so far this year. So
Speaker 1: we've exited economic purgatory and we've moved into the idea
Speaker 1: that the economy is actually pretty healthy.
Speaker 2: But Lourie, small cap and I don't know where mid
Speaker 2: cap is in this debate. I'm not informed are in purgatory.
Speaker 2: I yes, we've been here before. I really want to emphasize, folks,
Speaker 2: I can remember times where small cap was in purgatory.
Speaker 2: What's the catalyst of big cap south or small cap north?
Speaker 1: So it's a it's a great question, Tom. I think
Speaker 1: small cap PA have been dealing with this, I mean
Speaker 1: for a long time, but really focused on you in
Speaker 1: this cycle. When are we going to get those FED cuts?
Speaker 1: If you look historically, small caps typically do do well
Speaker 1: in easying cycles relative to large but unfortunately they don't
Speaker 1: tend to pre trade it.
Speaker 5: They tend to.
Speaker 1: See the inflection after the cuts start happening. And that's
Speaker 1: why I think small caps, you know, they're not really
Speaker 1: making major new loaves relative to large cap right now.
Speaker 1: They're trying to defend their ground because there's still some
Speaker 1: of that optimism out there. But we really need those
Speaker 1: cuts to come through. I do think the economic tailwinds
Speaker 1: are also putting the floor under them under a relative basis.
Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, it doesn't matter
Speaker 1: how many charts I show people on the balance sheets.
Speaker 1: Hedge funds think they're worse than large and want to
Speaker 1: beat them up as long as the Fed's entightened mode.
Speaker 2: Good morning pleasant. In California, Paul I completely randomly off
Speaker 2: Russell two thousand, took Simpson Manufacturing fifty five hundred employees.
Speaker 2: They're at a nineteen multiple. Their dividend growth is Okaya
Speaker 2: rate four percent per year for a very small dividend,
Speaker 2: and what do you do in an Apple world? What
Speaker 2: do you do in pleasants in California? If Cooper Tino
Speaker 2: owns a high ground, I don't get it.
Speaker 4: Exactly. Simpson Manufacturer, I hadn't heard of that would be
Speaker 4: never heard of the exactly good stuff exactly.
Speaker 3: Hey Lourie, I know you recently were attended the RBC
Speaker 3: Consumer Conference. How do you think that consumer's doing out there?
Speaker 3: What did you hear at that conference?
Speaker 1: So you know, I will say it was a fantastic conference.
Speaker 1: We had a really interesting cross section of companies. What
Speaker 1: one of the big takeaways that I heard was that
Speaker 1: the high end is still relatively resilient, but the low
Speaker 1: end in particular, and we've heard this on conference calls
Speaker 1: as well, is really seeing the impact of higher inflation.
Speaker 1: And then I heard a number of auto related companies
Speaker 1: and so really got an airfull about the interest rate
Speaker 1: impact as well. And if I think about that conference,
Speaker 1: and I also kind of go back to this last
Speaker 1: reporting season, I think a lot of the themes on
Speaker 1: the consumer are still the same high end versus low end.
Speaker 1: All these press resilience YadA YadA YadA, value consciousness, but
Speaker 1: it does seem just like the tone has you know,
Speaker 1: gotten a little bit worse. I think the way our
Speaker 1: analysts put it in his recap report was that the
Speaker 1: negative tone around some of these issues just escalated.
Speaker 2: Laurie is smart observation out on I'll get It Folks
Speaker 2: three two one YouTube the live chat, Chris thank you
Speaker 2: out on YouTube the live chat, and Laurie he says,
Speaker 2: where's the profits in Russell two thousand? I mean, are
Speaker 2: these people generating profit? Are they capital allocating? Are they
Speaker 2: on an EVA spread basis making money like the fancy people.
Speaker 1: So look, if you look at gauges of profitability in
Speaker 1: small cap or earning's quality, definitely, if you look at
Speaker 1: the Russell two thousand, those metrics don't look as good
Speaker 1: as they have historically. They typically, you know, you have
Speaker 1: a higher percentage of negative earners in the Russell two
Speaker 1: thousand then the S and P. That's true, but that
Speaker 1: gap has exacerbated over time. Some of that is because
Speaker 1: of index composition issues. You have a lot of biotech
Speaker 1: sitting in small cap, you have a lot of res
Speaker 1: sitting in small caps, so some of it can be
Speaker 1: explained by that. But if you do look at sectors
Speaker 1: like technology, you're also seeing more loss makers. You know,
Speaker 1: I think people do look at that to say, okay,
Speaker 1: it's a lower gage of quality. The SMP six hundred
Speaker 1: doesn't have as many of those issues, and it's still
Speaker 1: underperformed large caps as well. So I don't think you
Speaker 1: can blame small cap underperformance entirely on that, but honestly,
Speaker 1: to people buy small caps for future growth, not necessarily
Speaker 1: present day profitability.
Speaker 2: Laurie, thank you so much, Lori Kelvicina with our VC
Speaker 2: for blowing up the show. India modi yep, mccral's shoals.
Speaker 2: Italy is doing okay. Belgium, the guy resigns. I remember
Speaker 2: interviewing Mendavos years ago and I just said, get Terrence Haynes.
Speaker 2: I don't care about anything else. Get Terry Haynes with Pangaea.
Speaker 2: And he's here today. But the ramifications not for Europe,
Speaker 2: not for India, not for Belgium, but for mister Biden,
Speaker 2: mister Trump, Terry Haynes. There's a message here. What should
Speaker 2: the Biden and Trump campaigns interpret? Forward to November?
Speaker 7: Well, good morning everybody. You know, I think they had
Speaker 7: a look at all these all these results very closely,
Speaker 7: including Mexico, South Africa, and the Lights didn't mention it,
Speaker 7: and and Biden fundamentally, what Biden fundamentally needs to do
Speaker 7: is to is to actually double down on explaining, you know,
Speaker 7: both his domestic policy and his foreign policy, not just
Speaker 7: in a pithy election way, but actually get to what
Speaker 7: the stakes are and why we need to be doing
Speaker 7: what we're doing. And this administration is bad at that,
Speaker 7: and I think frankly Trump's not much better at it.
Speaker 7: But they need to do that, not just you know,
Speaker 7: because he's president and because he's running for reelection.
Speaker 3: So, Terry, what we've seen in some of these elections
Speaker 3: and geopolitics around the globe over the past several weeks
Speaker 3: and months is the far right. I'm not sure if
Speaker 3: we can call them the far right anymore. Maybe they're
Speaker 3: more of the of the of the center of where
Speaker 3: folks are thinking about. But again, if you're President Biden here,
Speaker 3: you know you've got to be concerned about this, don't you.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I think so.
Speaker 7: But you know what we're seeing here, I think both
Speaker 7: in the United States and certainly in Europe, so the
Speaker 7: West as a whole is kind of a bonfire of
Speaker 7: the vanities moment. You know, the politically entrenched don't seem
Speaker 7: to understand or really acknowledge their own roles in creating
Speaker 7: over the last generation policy and political cull the sacks
Speaker 7: that are that people are frustrated about. People want results,
Speaker 7: and you know, we started to see that almost a
Speaker 7: decade ago with Trump and you know we're seeing it
Speaker 7: again in Europe now. Whether or not the EU elections,
Speaker 7: you know, produce a real change is arguable the EU
Speaker 7: elections ten to be more of a protest vote than
Speaker 7: anything else, which is precisely why a lot of people
Speaker 7: are scratching their heads about Macron's desire to hold go
Speaker 7: ahead and hold a snap election.
Speaker 2: Terry just nailed it. Aster Green's always does talking about
Speaker 2: cul de sects of people in policy and society. Did
Speaker 2: George Herbert Walker Bush do that or James Earl Carter
Speaker 2: of the other team. I don't think they did that.
Speaker 3: I don't you know, So, Terry, if you're president former
Speaker 3: president Trump, here, what's the play over the next several months?
Speaker 3: Is it staying with that playbook that worked for him
Speaker 3: the last time? Is that still the playbook going forward?
Speaker 7: That's the playbook? You know, he'll run that he thinks
Speaker 7: he needs to run. But he's in a much big
Speaker 7: different situation Paul in three than he was in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 7: in three particulars. Firstly, you know, he's not new anymore.
Speaker 7: He's not the new, shiny, big alternative that people are
Speaker 7: so frustrated about they were willing to take a flyer on. Secondly,
Speaker 7: he does not have a United Republican Party. He's got
Speaker 7: a split Republican Party. And if you don't believe me,
Speaker 7: watch how he's doing the dance with Nicki Haley to
Speaker 7: try to get her twenty to forty percent of voters
Speaker 7: inside the tent. And Thirdly, he's not winning independence. He's
Speaker 7: losing independence right now. So you know he'll do what
Speaker 7: he does. And at the same time, they have to
Speaker 7: do different things in order to prevail.
Speaker 2: I think, Terry, I think the heart of the matter,
Speaker 2: we're going to see this, let's get out front, Terry.
Speaker 2: Of all the op edification in the evening news and
Speaker 2: the cable TV frenzy and all that Ian Bremer led
Speaker 2: with the inflation discussion off these elections in the harm
Speaker 2: to the middle class and lower class, did we see
Speaker 2: a shift today where there's proof of concept that all
Speaker 2: that matters is immigration, migration, and green climate change. Did
Speaker 2: that shift happen over the weekend?
Speaker 7: You know, I don't think so, because but the reason
Speaker 7: why I think there's a shift happening, all right, But
Speaker 7: I don't think it's really those issues. Political people love
Speaker 7: to turn the dials and talk about issues, you know,
Speaker 7: as if the right calibration of issues can be you know,
Speaker 7: can help sell a candidate. This election to me is
Speaker 7: much more about what I call frame and you know, first, yeah,
Speaker 7: and it's up to Biden to set the frame. The
Speaker 7: frame is Biden's got to show that he's did from
Speaker 7: now until November that he's up to the job every
Speaker 7: single day, and he's particularly in the June twenty seventh debate.
Speaker 7: And he's also got a show that he's the calmer,
Speaker 7: kind of more centrist alternative and as Trump, you know,
Speaker 7: kind of blusters. Trump had better messages, discipline, he probably
Speaker 7: do better. We can't count on that after a decade.
Speaker 7: I doubt he's going to start. But Biden needs to
Speaker 7: do those two things. And if he does that, I
Speaker 7: think he's got a United Party and he's got a
Speaker 7: pretty good shot at getting most of the independence he needs.
Speaker 3: Terry should Tom and I and Lisa should we pay
Speaker 3: attention to these conventions this summer?
Speaker 7: Absolutely, you should not only tell you what you shouldn't
Speaker 7: pay attention to right now. You should not pay attention
Speaker 7: to polls. The reason why is they're all, I mean
Speaker 7: all registered voter polls. It's like talking about people who
Speaker 7: might go to the movies to see the show, as
Speaker 7: opposed to the people will actually go. Guess which one
Speaker 7: Hollywood's interested in the people that can actually get in right.
Speaker 7: So same with poles. But the conventions, yeah, I mean,
Speaker 7: but everything's going to get thrown up in the air
Speaker 7: after June twenty seventh because Biden does badly. You know,
Speaker 7: the convention all of a sudden gets a lot more
Speaker 7: interesting and fraught if Trump does badly, you know, maybe
Speaker 7: same for the ours.
Speaker 2: I mean, I got time for one more question, Terry.
Speaker 2: Judge within the history and the remembrance President Biden's trip
Speaker 2: not only to Normandy, to Paris to see mister McCraw
Speaker 2: and also ought to Martin Cemetery, the World War One
Speaker 2: cemetery that we saw.
Speaker 7: Judge his performance, But I thought it was pretty much
Speaker 7: by the numbers and that's a small compliment. I don't
Speaker 7: mean that to distem I think it was pretty much
Speaker 7: by the numbers. There's no magic there. But you know
Speaker 7: he showed I think he showed it at route that
Speaker 7: he by and largely he met my frame test, so
Speaker 7: he did.
Speaker 4: Okay, Verry, hugely valuable.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Thank you so much. You look at the
Speaker 2: front pages on a Monday, les I mateo.
Speaker 8: Oh, let's get to the cost of owning a home,
Speaker 8: because this one is eye opening. That's why it stood
Speaker 8: out to me, increasing twenty six percent since twenty twenty.
Speaker 8: This is from bank Rade.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 8: It says because of different things, not even including the
Speaker 8: mortgage payment. We're talking about expenses, including taxes, insurance, utilities,
Speaker 8: they've all skyrocketed. So they crunched the numbers. It says
Speaker 8: the average of what homeowners shelling out annually for owning
Speaker 8: and maintaining. That's the big thing. A typical signal family
Speaker 8: home h total just over eighteen thousand dollars in March.
Speaker 8: It's about fifteen hundred dollars more a month than four
Speaker 8: years earlier. You know, during the pandemic, they got the figure.
Speaker 8: They factored in property tousands packed to taxes, home insurance,
Speaker 8: energy costs, all that kind of stuff. Two percent of
Speaker 8: the sale price for maintenance. So the states with the
Speaker 8: biggest jump Utah, Idaho, Hawaii, a.
Speaker 5: Utah for Utah is the top, followed by twenty four.
Speaker 8: It's crazy, and then Alaska and Teescas, Texas actually saw
Speaker 8: the smallest increases. But it just goes to show you
Speaker 8: how much it's costing just to maintain the house, not
Speaker 8: even to afford you know, the seven percent mortgage or
Speaker 8: whatever that.
Speaker 3: I mean, people are And there's a great tread in
Speaker 3: her states were upkeep is typical? Is pricis the averaging
Speaker 3: United States is eighteen thousand dollars one hundred and eighteen
Speaker 3: dollars a year, but in Hawaii's twenty nine thousand.
Speaker 4: But our good friends in New Jersey, we come in
Speaker 4: is strong. Look for at twenty five dolus.
Speaker 2: Look at the new look at the New Jersey New
Speaker 2: York differential.
Speaker 4: It's three grand I know, thank you, it's it's it's
Speaker 4: that much more expense. That's how I'm shocked his congestion
Speaker 4: report there.
Speaker 2: I don't you know, Jennifer Epstein, thank you so much
Speaker 2: for writing it up. Really important story. And you know,
Speaker 2: I think there's a political tint too. I look at
Speaker 2: the states. Hawaii, I think that's Democrat. In California, I
Speaker 2: think that's Democrat. But all the rest of the other
Speaker 2: states are Trump country. So it's going to be you know,
Speaker 2: it's going to fold right into that inflation nings very much.
Speaker 8: Next gen Z plumbers and construction workers who are gen Z.
Speaker 8: They're making blue collar work cool again. Okay, we're talking
Speaker 8: hashtag blue collar. It's attracting a lot of attention. The
Speaker 8: Wall Street Journal actually spoke with a female electrism She
Speaker 8: has like two point two million followers TikTok, Instagram, Facebook.
Speaker 8: She posts everything she does every day, and she's getting
Speaker 8: stopped by people who are saying, you know what, you
Speaker 8: spark my interest in this trade. I don't want to
Speaker 8: pay this high cost of a college degree. I don't
Speaker 8: want to be stuck with all this debt. I'm thinking
Speaker 8: of doing what you're doing. I want to be my
Speaker 8: own boss. Those are things that they're telling her. Vocational
Speaker 8: programs that are on the rise, more people are joining them,
Speaker 8: and these people who are influencers. At the same time,
Speaker 8: this girl is making two hundred thousand dollars a year
Speaker 8: just from clicks on brand deals from like car Heart
Speaker 8: and Cline Tools.
Speaker 5: That's just that alone.
Speaker 8: That's not even including her salary.
Speaker 2: Influencers.
Speaker 4: I don't think we're influencers.
Speaker 5: Two two million followers somebody can click.
Speaker 3: Yeah, But I mean I think you make it's it's
Speaker 3: totally correct.
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's just the economics correct. Why
Speaker 4: take on that huge, you.
Speaker 3: Know, college debt when you're unsure of what the payoff
Speaker 3: will be, as opposed to some of these.
Speaker 4: Trades, which we know their command agent.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean my friend has twins. One is going
Speaker 8: to college, one is doing the trades.
Speaker 4: Is that right? Okay?
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, weleta's check back with those twins in
Speaker 3: like twenty years.
Speaker 5: Can all right?
Speaker 8: Be careful how you drive. I'm putting the warning out
Speaker 8: there because certain apps on your phone could be given
Speaker 8: your car insurance company information that could affect how much
Speaker 8: you pay. This is from the New York Times. It's
Speaker 8: interesting some of these apps that are on your phone,
Speaker 8: they're giving this information. Apps that people use a lot,
Speaker 8: like the one Life three sixty that parents used to
Speaker 8: keep track of their kids.
Speaker 5: That's a big one.
Speaker 4: Do you use I never heard of it.
Speaker 8: Yes, it tracks everything you can see, like how fast
Speaker 8: you're driving on the highways.
Speaker 4: I do track my kids.
Speaker 8: I do, but he's a soldier, I know, but my
Speaker 8: daughter too. I got to find out where he is
Speaker 8: at all times.
Speaker 4: But do they have to opt into it?
Speaker 8: Yes, Okay, we have the conversation. But then when you
Speaker 8: have that Apple find my phone which does it automatically too?
Speaker 8: There's other options I would do well crack down. But
Speaker 8: also if you have the my radar, I mean it
Speaker 8: gives weather forecast, but it's also giving this data on
Speaker 8: how you're driving to insurance company gas Buddy that gives
Speaker 8: you tips on gas things on how you slam on
Speaker 8: the brakes, how how fast you're going, how much you're
Speaker 8: on your phone. Yeah, and it's and it's becoming an issue.
Speaker 8: I think all Say was one of the companies which
Speaker 8: was there's a feature provided by an analytics company that
Speaker 8: was founded by all State. So that's how they're getting
Speaker 8: a pick. But not all insurers use it. Geico USAA
Speaker 8: they say they don't use this, but just keep you
Speaker 8: were aware, okay, be careful how you're driving.
Speaker 4: Maybe following us Tom for all we know.
Speaker 6: I could be tracking tracking US One more a big
Speaker 6: cricket tournament.
Speaker 8: Over the weekend Island, thirty four thousand people packed that
Speaker 8: temporary stadium to watch a T twenty Cricket World Cup.
Speaker 8: It was India versus Pakistan, Indy actually winning one nineteen
Speaker 8: to one thirteen, but a lot of people flew in
Speaker 8: from out of town paid big ticket prices. So one
Speaker 8: guy paid twenty five hundred dollars per ticket for him
Speaker 8: and his son to.
Speaker 5: Go to that game.
Speaker 8: But it was the largest attendance at an international cricket
Speaker 8: match in the US.
Speaker 5: And it's not over.
Speaker 8: There's three more matches in New York. We have the
Speaker 8: final one Wednesday between India and the United.
Speaker 3: States United States pakistanis yeah, yeah, and like apparently that.
Speaker 2: Is just that's like the White Sox beat and the
Speaker 2: Red Soxes exactly.
Speaker 8: But I've never seen a cricket match, Like, I don't
Speaker 8: know how they score it.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 4: Nobody does.
Speaker 2: I have scientific knowledge on this. I was exhausted from
Speaker 2: around the world trip for Bloomberg, and I'm in a hotel,
Speaker 2: braindead in London, and I turned cricket on and I
Speaker 2: was too tired to look at the screen. It sounds
Speaker 2: just like baseball. It sounds just like the audience. Sound
Speaker 2: is just like a sleepy July afternoon. It's a sixth inning.
Speaker 2: The kid wants a slush. I want to narro against
Speaker 2: lagger Beard. It sounds the same. But I've tried and tried.
Speaker 2: It don't get it.
Speaker 7: You don't get it.
Speaker 2: After John John writing of Green Capitals, helped me, I failed.
Speaker 5: It apparently has quite a following.
Speaker 4: Billian's watching, Yes, Yes.
Speaker 2: And that's Lisa Mateo with the newspapers. This is the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live
Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to
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