1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. With a 11 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 2: brilliant summary of the history of index concentration in portfolio concentration. 12 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 2: And I didn't realize, you know, the way we have 13 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 2: the big techno, this has been normal this. You know, 14 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 2: there's other times it's been like this, you know, the 15 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 2: sixties or the fifties. 16 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure that's necessarily a healthy aspect of 17 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 3: the market. I mean again, this, you don't know this, 18 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 3: you know, focus on a handful of stocks, a dozen 19 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 3: stocks in terms of the market capitalization. 20 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 4: But that's where we are tap with big tech. 21 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,039 Speaker 2: We bring it up because Sarah Hunt joins us right now. 22 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 2: Sarah Hunt with Alpine Woods Capital Investors. The top ten 23 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: stocks and are holding make up one hundred and forty 24 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,040 Speaker 2: two percent of the portfolio. Have you ever seen it 25 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: this concentrated? 26 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 5: Good morning. 27 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 6: I have not, and I think that that is something 28 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 6: that we were discussing last year. It is something that 29 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 6: is going to continue to be well. But also we 30 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 6: were talking about last year because you had the top 31 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:46,680 Speaker 6: seven right, they were a big percentage. They had to 32 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 6: reboalac the S and P last year in the middle 33 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:50,560 Speaker 6: of the year, which they don't usually do because the 34 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 6: concentration got so high. So that is something that we're 35 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 6: going to continue to contend the lesson. 36 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 2: I mean, the fact is the index is the index. 37 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 2: If that's the numbers, that's the numbers. So they basically 38 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 2: made up fictional numbers because they thought the concentration was 39 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 2: too much. 40 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 6: Well, I don't think that anyone anticipated the concentration becoming 41 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 6: this high, because you didn't think that you were gonna 42 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 6: have capitalization weighted that we become. 43 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 5: Like in video just reached a trillion dollars, So you 44 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 5: didn't think that that was going to happen that fast. 45 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 2: There's been a We've just got the story out from 46 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 2: Van Vasilika of the four hundred and seventy billion dollar 47 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 2: rally in Apple. Are these things under owned? Is that 48 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 2: really the shock here that in Video or Apple are 49 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 2: actually under owned by American Wall Street? 50 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,679 Speaker 6: Well, given the concentration in the SMP, relatively speaking, you 51 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 6: could say yes about some of that. I think that 52 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 6: even when people bought Nvidia as it was moving up, 53 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 6: it was racing so far ahead, and it was getting 54 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 6: a more and more side of the index where even 55 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 6: if you owned it, you were underweight. And I think 56 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 6: Apple went through somewhat of a correction and somewhat of 57 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 6: a left behind era. And I don't think that people 58 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 6: were holding as much Apple as the S ANDP is holding. 59 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 6: But there's a risk to that too, because when something 60 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 6: like Apple has a downdraft all of a sudden, if 61 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 6: you're eight percent Apple like the index was, that's a 62 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 6: big problem for your portfolio. 63 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 3: So what, you know, what are you suggesting folks do 64 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 3: these days chase those magnificent whatever number they are, or 65 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 3: try to sign try to find value outside of those 66 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 3: big tech names. 67 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 6: I think it's a combination of the two because I 68 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 6: chase is a word that I hate to use, but 69 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 6: the big tech stocks that are generating tons of cash, 70 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 6: it's difficult to say I don't want them in my portfolio, 71 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 6: even though the valuations continue to rise, because they're not 72 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 6: in any kind of trouble. This is not the dot 73 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 6: com era, where a lot of the stocks that were 74 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 6: running were stocks that had to be financed by their vendors. 75 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 6: These are companies that can pay for all of the 76 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 6: Nvidios chips. 77 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 4: Right. 78 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 6: This is Google and Meta. These are companies that can 79 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 6: pay for the stuff that Google that Nvidia is building. 80 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 6: But I also think you have to look around and 81 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 6: say there are other areas of the market that are 82 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 6: under owned. I can look for good dividends, I can 83 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 6: look for good cash flow, I can look for things 84 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 6: like fivebacks, and I can look for areas where I 85 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 6: don't have to worry as much about that multiple. And 86 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 6: then I can see what happens with the FED, because 87 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 6: that's a whole other iteration. 88 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 2: At the minute, right, Paul Downdrift the pandemic Apple down 89 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 2: to thirty five percent into the October bottom. The ed 90 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 2: YARDENI relp F income were a bottom. Apple down twenty 91 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 2: nine percent. 92 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, so those are the draw down. Those are the 93 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 4: draw down there. So you know, Sarah, I mean a 94 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 4: lot of things. How do you guys start off. 95 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,679 Speaker 3: With just your allocations these days equity versus fixed income? 96 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 3: Because I'm very happy sitting them into your treasure getting 97 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 3: daring close to five percent. 98 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 6: It depends a lot on the investor themselves, and you know, 99 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,359 Speaker 6: we manage a combination of individual accounts and then also funds. 100 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 6: So I think that you know, you're looking at what 101 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 6: someone's where they are in their investment life cycle, matters 102 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 6: a lot about what your fixed income allocation is going 103 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 6: to be, and also what their risk tolerance is. There 104 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 6: are some people that even though bonds have actually now 105 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 6: have a yield, which they didn't for a decade and 106 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 6: a half, people got so used to not owning bonds 107 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 6: that they look at equity returns and they say five 108 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 6: percent is not enough. But then you have a bad 109 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:53,919 Speaker 6: year like twenty twenty two, and you think, you know, 110 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 6: it would have been nice, although bonds had their own 111 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 6: problems in twenty twenty two. So I think that there 112 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 6: is a good case to be made for having having 113 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 6: an allocation to bonds. 114 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 5: It depends on who you are, where you are in 115 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 5: that cycle. 116 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 6: And we also manage some balanced accounts so that also 117 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 6: you want some of that fixed income. And finally it's 118 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 6: helping you after years of not being available. 119 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,360 Speaker 2: Do you see dividend growth? We just asked Cantopolis or 120 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 2: Richard Bernstein this, do you see dividend growth? Is a 121 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 2: yield equivalent? Is it competing with yield the Sweeney two year? 122 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 5: I think that it is. 123 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 6: I think depending on the sector and depending on what 124 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 6: the company can do. I don't want to see a 125 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 6: yield that's growing because someone's going into debt to pay 126 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 6: that dividend. But if I've got if I've got growing 127 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 6: cash low and I can increase the dividend, it's not 128 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 6: necessarily going to give me what a two year is. 129 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 5: But I also have some potential capital appreciation. 130 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 4: On the side. 131 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 2: Say, the math of this is thirty percent of stocks succeed, 132 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 2: seventy percent of stocks that don't. How do you choose 133 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 2: that thirty percent winners? Right now? Looking out three years 134 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 2: or five years, what's a key determinant? 135 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 6: Well, I think that that requires looking into what or 136 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 6: having a discussion about where you think things are going. 137 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 6: If you look at the whole technology space that's getting 138 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 6: bigger and bigger and bigger, and has been. 139 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 5: For the last decade. 140 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,479 Speaker 6: It used to be it ran on cycles that were 141 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 6: attached to things like PCs and phones. 142 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 5: Now it's going on cycles of what is the car build? 143 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 5: What is this? 144 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 6: The industrial absorption of technology and the absorption of technology 145 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 6: across the board has been incredibly rapid. Is that going 146 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 6: to change in the next three to five years? 147 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 5: I don't think so. Does it matter what you pay 148 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 5: for these things? Yes? It does. 149 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 6: So you have to keep an eye on both what 150 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 6: you anticipate to happen and sort of say where are 151 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 6: industry is going to have problems? People right now think 152 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 6: the energy industry is going away. It's going to be 153 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 6: a much longer tail than people think. But it's a 154 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 6: difficult area to have exposure to because people don't like 155 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 6: it as much. But there is a longer term reality 156 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 6: that we are going to be needing fossil fuels for 157 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 6: a lot longer than people want to admit. 158 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 3: So, I guess, just setting back here, how about valuation 159 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 3: for this market. We've seen stocks run here, We've had 160 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 3: good earnings. I'm not sure if the earnings are good 161 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 3: enough to support the moves we've seen in this market 162 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 3: over the last twelve months. 163 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 4: How do you think about valuation? 164 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 6: Well, that's also it ends up being sector dependent as well, 165 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,280 Speaker 6: because you see that the value since the technology sector 166 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 6: are higher. You've seen some of that come down as 167 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 6: the ship as the spend has shifted from things like 168 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,359 Speaker 6: software to things like chips. Right, So there's a change 169 00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 6: there and you have to be careful because some of 170 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 6: those valuations and technology are very high. 171 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 2: Do you care about Apple today? Are you going to 172 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 2: acquire shares with this meeting? 173 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 5: We own Apple already, so do we want it to go? Well? 174 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,120 Speaker 6: Yes, Am I going to add more to it at 175 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 6: the moment? Probably not, because you just had this stock 176 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 6: rally back another ten fifteen. 177 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 4: Percent less marketing. 178 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 6: It's an amazing it had, but it had a huge rally. 179 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 6: So that was but you didn't sell it when it 180 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 6: went down, right, because that's the participation that you can 181 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 6: have to continue to have. 182 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 2: Sure, thank you so much, good stuff, Sarah Hunt, Thank 183 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 2: you so much. 184 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 3: Lori Cavasina joins us now from the lawn at the 185 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 3: University of Virginia, Head of US Equity Strategy RBC Capital Markets. 186 00:07:58,240 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 4: So LORII. 187 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 3: What happens if this feeder reserve says, you know what, 188 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 3: the data does not support a rate cut. 189 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 4: What happens to the market here? 190 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: All right, well, thanks for having me as always, And look, 191 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: I think that's a fantastic question if you want to 192 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: just go purely by the numbers, when we walk through 193 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: that kind of scenario, getting you know, just no moves, 194 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: further moves by the Fed this year, no cuts, no hikes, 195 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: STICKI er inflation than anticipated, and say tenure yields, you know, 196 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 1: sort of settle out around the recent highs our Work 197 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: says that knocks the pe multiple down a little bit 198 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: below twenty one and pulls the s and P five hundred. 199 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 1: If you're looking on my earnings, which are two thirty seven, 200 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: around forty nine hundred. If you're looking a little more 201 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: generously at consensus earnings, which are around two forty five, 202 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: you get closer to fifty one hundred. But either way, 203 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: you know, I think we think there's some modest downside 204 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: from here. We do think at this point in time, 205 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: based on our modeling, this idea of getting one maybe 206 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: two cuts and you know, kind of inflation coming down 207 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 1: to two six on PCE that seems to be fully 208 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,319 Speaker 1: reflected in stock prices around fifty three hundred if you 209 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 1: use the consensus earnings numbers. So I think we're fairly 210 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: priced for that rosy scenario now, and if we don't 211 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: get it, not a ton of damage to the market, 212 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:10,439 Speaker 1: but some modest impacts. 213 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 3: Are you surprised, Laurie that the market has risen? I 214 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 3: guess we're twelve percent or so somewhat this year, despite 215 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 3: the fact that this market again went into the year 216 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 3: discounting maybe five or six rate cuts and now we're 217 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 3: down to maybe one or two. Despite that reduction in 218 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 3: the FED dubbishness, the stock market's kind of risen here 219 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 3: twelve percent. 220 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 4: Are you surprised by that? 221 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: Well, you know, I think it's surprising from a FED 222 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 1: inflation interest rate angle. I think if you put it 223 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: in the context of all these conflicting cross currents that 224 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 1: we have the big tailwind that's actually I think responsible 225 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 1: for most of that appreciation is the economic tailwind. And 226 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 1: so I love these stats. But if you look at 227 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: the ECFC data on Bloomberg, and I look at this 228 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: stuff every Friday, and you can track the consensus GDP 229 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 1: forecasts on the street. If you look at the twenty 230 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: twenty four number last summer, it was point six percent 231 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four on real GDP on the annual basis. 232 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 1: If you looked at that stat in January, it was 233 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: one point three percent, and then I think it was 234 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: sometime in February we saw big melt up and it 235 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 1: crossed over the two percent mark, and now I believe 236 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: it's sitting around two point four percent or so. Zero 237 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:19,960 Speaker 1: to two percent GDP is typically very weak for the 238 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:22,839 Speaker 1: equity market. Two to four typically you get, you know, 239 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 1: kind of a twelve to thirteen percent type gain, and 240 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 1: that's about what we've gotten so far this year. So 241 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 1: we've exited economic purgatory and we've moved into the idea 242 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: that the economy is actually pretty healthy. 243 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 2: But Lourie, small cap and I don't know where mid 244 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 2: cap is in this debate. I'm not informed are in purgatory. 245 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:44,680 Speaker 2: I yes, we've been here before. I really want to emphasize, folks, 246 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 2: I can remember times where small cap was in purgatory. 247 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 2: What's the catalyst of big cap south or small cap north? 248 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: So it's a it's a great question, Tom. I think 249 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:01,839 Speaker 1: small cap PA have been dealing with this, I mean 250 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 1: for a long time, but really focused on you in 251 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 1: this cycle. When are we going to get those FED cuts? 252 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 1: If you look historically, small caps typically do do well 253 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: in easying cycles relative to large but unfortunately they don't 254 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:14,959 Speaker 1: tend to pre trade it. 255 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 5: They tend to. 256 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 1: See the inflection after the cuts start happening. And that's 257 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,839 Speaker 1: why I think small caps, you know, they're not really 258 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,719 Speaker 1: making major new loaves relative to large cap right now. 259 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: They're trying to defend their ground because there's still some 260 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 1: of that optimism out there. But we really need those 261 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: cuts to come through. I do think the economic tailwinds 262 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: are also putting the floor under them under a relative basis. 263 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, it doesn't matter 264 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: how many charts I show people on the balance sheets. 265 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,599 Speaker 1: Hedge funds think they're worse than large and want to 266 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: beat them up as long as the Fed's entightened mode. 267 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 2: Good morning pleasant. In California, Paul I completely randomly off 268 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 2: Russell two thousand, took Simpson Manufacturing fifty five hundred employees. 269 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 2: They're at a nineteen multiple. Their dividend growth is Okaya 270 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 2: rate four percent per year for a very small dividend, 271 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 2: and what do you do in an Apple world? What 272 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 2: do you do in pleasants in California? If Cooper Tino 273 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:13,079 Speaker 2: owns a high ground, I don't get it. 274 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,079 Speaker 4: Exactly. Simpson Manufacturer, I hadn't heard of that would be 275 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,199 Speaker 4: never heard of the exactly good stuff exactly. 276 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,920 Speaker 3: Hey Lourie, I know you recently were attended the RBC 277 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 3: Consumer Conference. How do you think that consumer's doing out there? 278 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 3: What did you hear at that conference? 279 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: So you know, I will say it was a fantastic conference. 280 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: We had a really interesting cross section of companies. What 281 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 1: one of the big takeaways that I heard was that 282 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 1: the high end is still relatively resilient, but the low 283 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: end in particular, and we've heard this on conference calls 284 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: as well, is really seeing the impact of higher inflation. 285 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: And then I heard a number of auto related companies 286 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: and so really got an airfull about the interest rate 287 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 1: impact as well. And if I think about that conference, 288 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:54,400 Speaker 1: and I also kind of go back to this last 289 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 1: reporting season, I think a lot of the themes on 290 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: the consumer are still the same high end versus low end. 291 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 1: All these press resilience YadA YadA YadA, value consciousness, but 292 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: it does seem just like the tone has you know, 293 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 1: gotten a little bit worse. I think the way our 294 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: analysts put it in his recap report was that the 295 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: negative tone around some of these issues just escalated. 296 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 2: Laurie is smart observation out on I'll get It Folks 297 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 2: three two one YouTube the live chat, Chris thank you 298 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 2: out on YouTube the live chat, and Laurie he says, 299 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 2: where's the profits in Russell two thousand? I mean, are 300 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:35,319 Speaker 2: these people generating profit? Are they capital allocating? Are they 301 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:39,320 Speaker 2: on an EVA spread basis making money like the fancy people. 302 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 1: So look, if you look at gauges of profitability in 303 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 1: small cap or earning's quality, definitely, if you look at 304 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: the Russell two thousand, those metrics don't look as good 305 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 1: as they have historically. They typically, you know, you have 306 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: a higher percentage of negative earners in the Russell two 307 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: thousand then the S and P. That's true, but that 308 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: gap has exacerbated over time. Some of that is because 309 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:04,559 Speaker 1: of index composition issues. You have a lot of biotech 310 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: sitting in small cap, you have a lot of res 311 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: sitting in small caps, so some of it can be 312 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: explained by that. But if you do look at sectors 313 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 1: like technology, you're also seeing more loss makers. You know, 314 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: I think people do look at that to say, okay, 315 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: it's a lower gage of quality. The SMP six hundred 316 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: doesn't have as many of those issues, and it's still 317 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 1: underperformed large caps as well. So I don't think you 318 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: can blame small cap underperformance entirely on that, but honestly, 319 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: to people buy small caps for future growth, not necessarily 320 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 1: present day profitability. 321 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 2: Laurie, thank you so much, Lori Kelvicina with our VC 322 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 2: for blowing up the show. India modi yep, mccral's shoals. 323 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 2: Italy is doing okay. Belgium, the guy resigns. I remember 324 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 2: interviewing Mendavos years ago and I just said, get Terrence Haynes. 325 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 2: I don't care about anything else. Get Terry Haynes with Pangaea. 326 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 2: And he's here today. But the ramifications not for Europe, 327 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 2: not for India, not for Belgium, but for mister Biden, 328 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: mister Trump, Terry Haynes. There's a message here. What should 329 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 2: the Biden and Trump campaigns interpret? Forward to November? 330 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 7: Well, good morning everybody. You know, I think they had 331 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 7: a look at all these all these results very closely, 332 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 7: including Mexico, South Africa, and the Lights didn't mention it, 333 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 7: and and Biden fundamentally, what Biden fundamentally needs to do 334 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 7: is to is to actually double down on explaining, you know, 335 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 7: both his domestic policy and his foreign policy, not just 336 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 7: in a pithy election way, but actually get to what 337 00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 7: the stakes are and why we need to be doing 338 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 7: what we're doing. And this administration is bad at that, 339 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 7: and I think frankly Trump's not much better at it. 340 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 7: But they need to do that, not just you know, 341 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 7: because he's president and because he's running for reelection. 342 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 3: So, Terry, what we've seen in some of these elections 343 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 3: and geopolitics around the globe over the past several weeks 344 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 3: and months is the far right. I'm not sure if 345 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,480 Speaker 3: we can call them the far right anymore. Maybe they're 346 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 3: more of the of the of the center of where 347 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 3: folks are thinking about. But again, if you're President Biden here, 348 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 3: you know you've got to be concerned about this, don't you. 349 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I think so. 350 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,760 Speaker 7: But you know what we're seeing here, I think both 351 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 7: in the United States and certainly in Europe, so the 352 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 7: West as a whole is kind of a bonfire of 353 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 7: the vanities moment. You know, the politically entrenched don't seem 354 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 7: to understand or really acknowledge their own roles in creating 355 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 7: over the last generation policy and political cull the sacks 356 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 7: that are that people are frustrated about. People want results, 357 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 7: and you know, we started to see that almost a 358 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 7: decade ago with Trump and you know we're seeing it 359 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 7: again in Europe now. Whether or not the EU elections, 360 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:59,360 Speaker 7: you know, produce a real change is arguable the EU 361 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 7: elections ten to be more of a protest vote than 362 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 7: anything else, which is precisely why a lot of people 363 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 7: are scratching their heads about Macron's desire to hold go 364 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 7: ahead and hold a snap election. 365 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 2: Terry just nailed it. Aster Green's always does talking about 366 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 2: cul de sects of people in policy and society. Did 367 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:24,920 Speaker 2: George Herbert Walker Bush do that or James Earl Carter 368 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 2: of the other team. I don't think they did that. 369 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 3: I don't you know, So, Terry, if you're president former 370 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 3: president Trump, here, what's the play over the next several months? 371 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,120 Speaker 3: Is it staying with that playbook that worked for him 372 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 3: the last time? Is that still the playbook going forward? 373 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 7: That's the playbook? You know, he'll run that he thinks 374 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 7: he needs to run. But he's in a much big 375 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:55,640 Speaker 7: different situation Paul in three than he was in twenty sixteen, 376 00:17:56,119 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 7: in three particulars. Firstly, you know, he's not new anymore. 377 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,400 Speaker 7: He's not the new, shiny, big alternative that people are 378 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 7: so frustrated about they were willing to take a flyer on. Secondly, 379 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 7: he does not have a United Republican Party. He's got 380 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 7: a split Republican Party. And if you don't believe me, 381 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 7: watch how he's doing the dance with Nicki Haley to 382 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,920 Speaker 7: try to get her twenty to forty percent of voters 383 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 7: inside the tent. And Thirdly, he's not winning independence. He's 384 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 7: losing independence right now. So you know he'll do what 385 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 7: he does. And at the same time, they have to 386 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 7: do different things in order to prevail. 387 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 2: I think, Terry, I think the heart of the matter, 388 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 2: we're going to see this, let's get out front, Terry. 389 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 2: Of all the op edification in the evening news and 390 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,920 Speaker 2: the cable TV frenzy and all that Ian Bremer led 391 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 2: with the inflation discussion off these elections in the harm 392 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 2: to the middle class and lower class, did we see 393 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,920 Speaker 2: a shift today where there's proof of concept that all 394 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:56,719 Speaker 2: that matters is immigration, migration, and green climate change. Did 395 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 2: that shift happen over the weekend? 396 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 7: You know, I don't think so, because but the reason 397 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 7: why I think there's a shift happening, all right, But 398 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 7: I don't think it's really those issues. Political people love 399 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 7: to turn the dials and talk about issues, you know, 400 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 7: as if the right calibration of issues can be you know, 401 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:18,000 Speaker 7: can help sell a candidate. This election to me is 402 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 7: much more about what I call frame and you know, first, yeah, 403 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 7: and it's up to Biden to set the frame. The 404 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 7: frame is Biden's got to show that he's did from 405 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,359 Speaker 7: now until November that he's up to the job every 406 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 7: single day, and he's particularly in the June twenty seventh debate. 407 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 7: And he's also got a show that he's the calmer, 408 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 7: kind of more centrist alternative and as Trump, you know, 409 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 7: kind of blusters. Trump had better messages, discipline, he probably 410 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 7: do better. We can't count on that after a decade. 411 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 7: I doubt he's going to start. But Biden needs to 412 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,439 Speaker 7: do those two things. And if he does that, I 413 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,600 Speaker 7: think he's got a United Party and he's got a 414 00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 7: pretty good shot at getting most of the independence he needs. 415 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 3: Terry should Tom and I and Lisa should we pay 416 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,919 Speaker 3: attention to these conventions this summer? 417 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 7: Absolutely, you should not only tell you what you shouldn't 418 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 7: pay attention to right now. You should not pay attention 419 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 7: to polls. The reason why is they're all, I mean 420 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:17,880 Speaker 7: all registered voter polls. It's like talking about people who 421 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 7: might go to the movies to see the show, as 422 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,719 Speaker 7: opposed to the people will actually go. Guess which one 423 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 7: Hollywood's interested in the people that can actually get in right. 424 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 7: So same with poles. But the conventions, yeah, I mean, 425 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 7: but everything's going to get thrown up in the air 426 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 7: after June twenty seventh because Biden does badly. You know, 427 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 7: the convention all of a sudden gets a lot more 428 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 7: interesting and fraught if Trump does badly, you know, maybe 429 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 7: same for the ours. 430 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,200 Speaker 2: I mean, I got time for one more question, Terry. 431 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 2: Judge within the history and the remembrance President Biden's trip 432 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 2: not only to Normandy, to Paris to see mister McCraw 433 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 2: and also ought to Martin Cemetery, the World War One 434 00:20:58,880 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 2: cemetery that we saw. 435 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 7: Judge his performance, But I thought it was pretty much 436 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 7: by the numbers and that's a small compliment. I don't 437 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 7: mean that to distem I think it was pretty much 438 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 7: by the numbers. There's no magic there. But you know 439 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 7: he showed I think he showed it at route that 440 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 7: he by and largely he met my frame test, so 441 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 7: he did. 442 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 4: Okay, Verry, hugely valuable. 443 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:31,920 Speaker 2: Thank you, Thank you so much. You look at the 444 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 2: front pages on a Monday, les I mateo. 445 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 8: Oh, let's get to the cost of owning a home, 446 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 8: because this one is eye opening. That's why it stood 447 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 8: out to me, increasing twenty six percent since twenty twenty. 448 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 8: This is from bank Rade. 449 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:44,120 Speaker 4: Okay. 450 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 8: It says because of different things, not even including the 451 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 8: mortgage payment. We're talking about expenses, including taxes, insurance, utilities, 452 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 8: they've all skyrocketed. So they crunched the numbers. It says 453 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 8: the average of what homeowners shelling out annually for owning 454 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 8: and maintaining. That's the big thing. A typical signal family 455 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:03,680 Speaker 8: home h total just over eighteen thousand dollars in March. 456 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 8: It's about fifteen hundred dollars more a month than four 457 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 8: years earlier. You know, during the pandemic, they got the figure. 458 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 8: They factored in property tousands packed to taxes, home insurance, 459 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 8: energy costs, all that kind of stuff. Two percent of 460 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 8: the sale price for maintenance. So the states with the 461 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 8: biggest jump Utah, Idaho, Hawaii, a. 462 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 5: Utah for Utah is the top, followed by twenty four. 463 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 8: It's crazy, and then Alaska and Teescas, Texas actually saw 464 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 8: the smallest increases. But it just goes to show you 465 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 8: how much it's costing just to maintain the house, not 466 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 8: even to afford you know, the seven percent mortgage or 467 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 8: whatever that. 468 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 3: I mean, people are And there's a great tread in 469 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 3: her states were upkeep is typical? Is pricis the averaging 470 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 3: United States is eighteen thousand dollars one hundred and eighteen 471 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,159 Speaker 3: dollars a year, but in Hawaii's twenty nine thousand. 472 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 4: But our good friends in New Jersey, we come in 473 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 4: is strong. Look for at twenty five dolus. 474 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 2: Look at the new look at the New Jersey New 475 00:22:58,920 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 2: York differential. 476 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 4: It's three grand I know, thank you, it's it's it's 477 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:10,120 Speaker 4: that much more expense. That's how I'm shocked his congestion 478 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 4: report there. 479 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 2: I don't you know, Jennifer Epstein, thank you so much 480 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 2: for writing it up. Really important story. And you know, 481 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,679 Speaker 2: I think there's a political tint too. I look at 482 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 2: the states. Hawaii, I think that's Democrat. In California, I 483 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 2: think that's Democrat. But all the rest of the other 484 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 2: states are Trump country. So it's going to be you know, 485 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 2: it's going to fold right into that inflation nings very much. 486 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:36,679 Speaker 8: Next gen Z plumbers and construction workers who are gen Z. 487 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 8: They're making blue collar work cool again. Okay, we're talking 488 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,399 Speaker 8: hashtag blue collar. It's attracting a lot of attention. The 489 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 8: Wall Street Journal actually spoke with a female electrism She 490 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,160 Speaker 8: has like two point two million followers TikTok, Instagram, Facebook. 491 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,160 Speaker 8: She posts everything she does every day, and she's getting 492 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 8: stopped by people who are saying, you know what, you 493 00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 8: spark my interest in this trade. I don't want to 494 00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 8: pay this high cost of a college degree. I don't 495 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,600 Speaker 8: want to be stuck with all this debt. I'm thinking 496 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 8: of doing what you're doing. I want to be my 497 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 8: own boss. Those are things that they're telling her. Vocational 498 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 8: programs that are on the rise, more people are joining them, 499 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 8: and these people who are influencers. At the same time, 500 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 8: this girl is making two hundred thousand dollars a year 501 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,800 Speaker 8: just from clicks on brand deals from like car Heart 502 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 8: and Cline Tools. 503 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 5: That's just that alone. 504 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 8: That's not even including her salary. 505 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 2: Influencers. 506 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:25,640 Speaker 4: I don't think we're influencers. 507 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,359 Speaker 5: Two two million followers somebody can click. 508 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, But I mean I think you make it's it's 509 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:33,639 Speaker 3: totally correct. 510 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's just the economics correct. Why 511 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 4: take on that huge, you. 512 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 3: Know, college debt when you're unsure of what the payoff 513 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 3: will be, as opposed to some of these. 514 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 4: Trades, which we know their command agent. 515 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean my friend has twins. One is going 516 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 8: to college, one is doing the trades. 517 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 4: Is that right? Okay? 518 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, weleta's check back with those twins in 519 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 3: like twenty years. 520 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 5: Can all right? 521 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 8: Be careful how you drive. I'm putting the warning out 522 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,400 Speaker 8: there because certain apps on your phone could be given 523 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 8: your car insurance company information that could affect how much 524 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 8: you pay. This is from the New York Times. It's 525 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 8: interesting some of these apps that are on your phone, 526 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 8: they're giving this information. Apps that people use a lot, 527 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,680 Speaker 8: like the one Life three sixty that parents used to 528 00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 8: keep track of their kids. 529 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 5: That's a big one. 530 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:18,880 Speaker 4: Do you use I never heard of it. 531 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 8: Yes, it tracks everything you can see, like how fast 532 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 8: you're driving on the highways. 533 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 4: I do track my kids. 534 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 8: I do, but he's a soldier, I know, but my 535 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 8: daughter too. I got to find out where he is 536 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:31,199 Speaker 8: at all times. 537 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 4: But do they have to opt into it? 538 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 8: Yes, Okay, we have the conversation. But then when you 539 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,640 Speaker 8: have that Apple find my phone which does it automatically too? 540 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:47,919 Speaker 8: There's other options I would do well crack down. But 541 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 8: also if you have the my radar, I mean it 542 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,679 Speaker 8: gives weather forecast, but it's also giving this data on 543 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 8: how you're driving to insurance company gas Buddy that gives 544 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 8: you tips on gas things on how you slam on 545 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 8: the brakes, how how fast you're going, how much you're 546 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 8: on your phone. Yeah, and it's and it's becoming an issue. 547 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,600 Speaker 8: I think all Say was one of the companies which 548 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 8: was there's a feature provided by an analytics company that 549 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,359 Speaker 8: was founded by all State. So that's how they're getting 550 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 8: a pick. But not all insurers use it. Geico USAA 551 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,399 Speaker 8: they say they don't use this, but just keep you 552 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:23,880 Speaker 8: were aware, okay, be careful how you're driving. 553 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,199 Speaker 4: Maybe following us Tom for all we know. 554 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 6: I could be tracking tracking US One more a big 555 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 6: cricket tournament. 556 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 8: Over the weekend Island, thirty four thousand people packed that 557 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 8: temporary stadium to watch a T twenty Cricket World Cup. 558 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 8: It was India versus Pakistan, Indy actually winning one nineteen 559 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 8: to one thirteen, but a lot of people flew in 560 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 8: from out of town paid big ticket prices. So one 561 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 8: guy paid twenty five hundred dollars per ticket for him 562 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,160 Speaker 8: and his son to. 563 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 5: Go to that game. 564 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,879 Speaker 8: But it was the largest attendance at an international cricket 565 00:26:58,880 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 8: match in the US. 566 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 5: And it's not over. 567 00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 8: There's three more matches in New York. We have the 568 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 8: final one Wednesday between India and the United. 569 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 3: States United States pakistanis yeah, yeah, and like apparently that. 570 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 2: Is just that's like the White Sox beat and the 571 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:14,920 Speaker 2: Red Soxes exactly. 572 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,840 Speaker 8: But I've never seen a cricket match, Like, I don't 573 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 8: know how they score it. 574 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:19,200 Speaker 1: I don't know. 575 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 4: Nobody does. 576 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 2: I have scientific knowledge on this. I was exhausted from 577 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,440 Speaker 2: around the world trip for Bloomberg, and I'm in a hotel, 578 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 2: braindead in London, and I turned cricket on and I 579 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 2: was too tired to look at the screen. It sounds 580 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 2: just like baseball. It sounds just like the audience. Sound 581 00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 2: is just like a sleepy July afternoon. It's a sixth inning. 582 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 2: The kid wants a slush. I want to narro against 583 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,360 Speaker 2: lagger Beard. It sounds the same. But I've tried and tried. 584 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 2: It don't get it. 585 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:53,679 Speaker 7: You don't get it. 586 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:58,640 Speaker 2: After John John writing of Green Capitals, helped me, I failed. 587 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 5: It apparently has quite a following. 588 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,399 Speaker 4: Billian's watching, Yes, Yes. 589 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 2: And that's Lisa Mateo with the newspapers. This is the 590 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 591 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 592 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 593 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 594 00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 595 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,280 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 596 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 597 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.