1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 2: Joe and I always have our eyes on what's happening 7 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill in the way in which a legislative 8 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 2: path forward for Congress, together with the Trump administration, is 9 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: shaping up. It was actually at this hour yesterday that 10 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 2: we were joined by Republican Senator Bill Haggerty of Tennessee, 11 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 2: and Joe pressed him on whether or not it was 12 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 2: the Senate or the House that was actually going to 13 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 2: take those first baby steps. This was his answer. 14 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 3: We know the American public expects us to address the 15 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 3: tax package, and where we're going to do that. We 16 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 3: have a number of other issues that we're trying to 17 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 3: address at the same time. How we do it from 18 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 3: a process standpoint, I'm much less concerned about. I think 19 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 3: the concern is that we get it done quickly, that 20 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 3: we get it done efficiently, and I'm optimistic that we 21 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 3: will get it done despite the procedural back and forth 22 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 3: between the House and the Senate. We're going to get 23 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 3: it done, and we're very focused on it. 24 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 4: We bring in a member of the Republican Conference in 25 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 4: the House now, Congressman Frank Lucas, Oklahoma's third district. 26 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 5: It's great to have you with us. 27 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 4: Congressman, thanks for joining here on Bloomberg TV and radio. 28 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,119 Speaker 4: Our viewers and listeners should know that you have represented 29 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 4: that district since two thousand and three, and you've been 30 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 4: through a couple of funding battles here and I realized 31 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 4: the concept of reconciliation is nothing new. 32 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 5: So give us your voice of experience on this. 33 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 4: The idea of marking up a reconciliation bill this week 34 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 4: in the House appears to be out the window. 35 00:01:41,240 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 5: How is this all going to work? Is it one 36 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 5: bill or two? 37 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 6: Well, first of all, I actually go back to nineteen 38 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 6: ninety four. I was here for the last seven months 39 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 6: of the old Democratic forty year majority. I was a 40 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 6: part of the revolution of nineteen ninety four. I think 41 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 6: the question becomes, do you want to base hit or 42 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 6: you want a home run? The issues that are being 43 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 6: talked about, my brethren and the other box would be 44 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 6: basically be a base hit. 45 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: It's the tax. 46 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 6: Policy questions that really matter for the long term economy. 47 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 6: If we run one belt, we get it all done, 48 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 6: that's a home run. But I'm practical enough to know 49 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 6: whatever the leadership decides, I'll be a part of because 50 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 6: I want to make sure we don't let a massive 51 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 6: tax increase take place immediately. 52 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 2: Well, Congressman, I guess the question is whether this is 53 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 2: really up to leadership or if this is more about 54 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 2: what is going to take to appease the Freedom Caucus. 55 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 6: Well, we have a two seat majority in the United 56 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 6: States House of Representatives. In the Republican Conference. Soon we'll 57 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 6: have a one seat majority. That's about as thinly as 58 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 6: you can slice. It makes the sentence three seat majority 59 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 6: look like a huge majority. And we have factions within 60 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 6: our conference who have various agenda items. But the bottom 61 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,919 Speaker 6: line is this. If we don't extend the Trump Tracks 62 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 6: relief from twenty seventeen, if we don't do the border issues, 63 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 6: if we don't address the whole package, we're going to 64 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 6: pay a price for it on down the road. I 65 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 6: know the Senate's a different place. I respect him greatly, 66 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:03,920 Speaker 6: but I know in the House we need to do it. 67 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 6: We need to do it one time and be done 68 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 6: with it because of the environment we're in over here. 69 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 4: We've got a funding deadline six weeks away. Congressman, are 70 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 4: we going to be in a world a month from 71 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 4: now where we're talking about another continuing resolution to kick 72 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 4: the cans? 73 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 5: So all the rest of this can be written. I 74 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 5: hope not. 75 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 6: I wanted to finish funding out the government to last 76 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,959 Speaker 6: December and not go through this gyration again. But funding 77 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 6: the government is much like passing the budget resolution, much 78 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 6: like dealing with budget reconciliation. We have a force that 79 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 6: is available to us that we haven't had in a 80 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 6: long time. It's called President Donald Trump. And when he 81 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 6: engages on any or all three of these issues, I 82 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 6: have to believe that my naysayer friends, and there's one 83 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 6: or two of them in the conference, we'll see the 84 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 6: light and we'll move forward together. Because if we fail, 85 00:03:55,960 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 6: it makes it more difficult for the president, and President 86 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 6: doesn't accept failure. We all know that. 87 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 7: Well. 88 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 2: I do wonder to what extent this is really just 89 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 2: about President Trump and about you and your colleagues in 90 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 2: Congress and the executive and legislative branches working together. If 91 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 2: this ultimately is about budgeting and spending in the US government, 92 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 2: what role is Elon Musk playing in these conversations, considering 93 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 2: how quickly he has been trying to move at DOGE. 94 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 6: I think all the factors are moving together, and DOZE 95 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 6: is a classic example of trying, in the spirit of 96 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 6: Trump forty seven, to make a dramatic difference. Anyone involved 97 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 6: in business knows that ever so often or ever so 98 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,840 Speaker 6: many years, no matter the size of the corporation of 99 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 6: the private enterprise, you bring in the efficiency experts, you 100 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 6: look at everything, you sort out all the cobwebs, you 101 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 6: make adjustments to keep the enterprise moving forward. I see 102 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 6: that as what DOZE is all about. 103 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 5: Now. 104 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 6: There's been lots of discussion about what DOGE has access to, 105 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 6: and I was in a conversation with a number of 106 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,679 Speaker 6: other members with the Secretary of the Treasury on Monday evening, 107 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 6: and it was made quite clear to us that that 108 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 6: those people have the ability to view lots of things, 109 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 6: they don't control those things. 110 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 4: So as long as it's a read only status, you're 111 00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 4: comfortable with Elon Musk not having been confirmed by the Senate, 112 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 4: not being an actual government employee, having access to that information. 113 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 5: Even if it does not involve stopping payments. 114 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 6: I'll just say that Elon has the confidence of the President. 115 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:30,039 Speaker 6: The president clearly on election, they had the confidence of America. 116 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 6: And I believe that my Republican colleagues in the House 117 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 6: and the Senate need to be very respectful of that situation. 118 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 6: Will we agree with everything he does? Will everything he proposes, 119 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 6: I should say, actually become law. No, this is the 120 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 6: legislative process. But he's going to lay out before us. 121 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 6: I believe a set of issues and circumstances that need 122 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 6: to be addressed. Again, just like any good consultant brought 123 00:05:56,000 --> 00:06:00,080 Speaker 6: in in a business enterprise to make sure it's running efficient. 124 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 8: Well. 125 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 2: And as you say, Elon Musk has the confidence of 126 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 2: the president. Should he also have the confidence of the 127 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 2: people in Oklahoma's third District who may be wondering about 128 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:13,160 Speaker 2: Elon Musk and those close to him seeing their personal, 129 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 2: sensitive financial data and information. 130 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 6: Well, the people in the third District of Oklahoma overwhelmingly, 131 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 6: not unanimously, because that's not the way this country works. 132 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 6: The people in Oklahoma have tremendous confidence in President Trump. 133 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 6: And again we'll see how this process evolves. As long 134 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 6: as it's viewing, as long as it's making recommendations, as 135 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 6: long as it's not turning the switches on and off. 136 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 6: How can you argue with trying to make things work better? Now, 137 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 6: along that lines, I'm a part of a task force 138 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 6: dealing with the federal reserve system and Trad's reason liquipment 139 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 6: the issues to try and make sure those issues work 140 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 6: more efficiently. 141 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 4: Okay, if it involves closing a federal agency, however, and 142 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 4: that could be us AID or the Department of Education, 143 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 4: where it's told is the next target, Congressman, does the 144 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 4: House of Representatives? Does the legislature need to have the 145 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 4: final say on that? 146 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 6: I'd say, ultimately we will have the final sale on 147 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,120 Speaker 6: whatever happens, because all of the actions so far have 148 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 6: been challenged very aggressively in court. All the executive orders, 149 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 6: that's regular process, that's regular order. We'll work our way 150 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 6: through that. Ultimately, good recommendations. Even if the courts stop 151 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 6: the executive orders, we'll still have the ability to legislatively 152 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 6: address that. Now we have a simple majority one seat 153 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 6: in a few days, maybe back to three seats or 154 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 6: four seats by the summer. The Senate still has that 155 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 6: sixty book culture rule to deal with again. That's why 156 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 6: we need a budget resolution and reconciliation and not just one, 157 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 6: but maybe three reconciliation bills in this calendar year to 158 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 6: move legislation. This is not a checker game we're a 159 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 6: part of. This is a chess gain and we have 160 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 6: to be prepared to move the pieces carefully to accomplish 161 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 6: what needs to be done. 162 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 2: Three bills would certainly be something to behold. Congressman, you 163 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 2: mentioned that you are leading this new task Force on 164 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 2: Monetary Policy and Treasury market Resilience. Have you had a 165 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 2: chance to speak with FED Chair J. Poweller? Will that 166 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 2: wait until he testifies before the Financial Services Committee next week? 167 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,760 Speaker 6: Well, I'm having ongoing conversations a lot of people on 168 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 6: a regular basis, and we are working with Chairman Hill, 169 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 6: who chose to create this, and I appreciate the opportunity 170 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 6: to lead it and the members who've been named to 171 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 6: the committee. As we work through all of this, bear 172 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 6: in mind it's not just a review of monetary policy 173 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 6: and the Federal reserve system. We're not going to argue 174 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 6: about interest rate setting. It's the policies and the laws 175 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 6: since nineteen thirteen that make this process what it is. 176 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 6: But we're also looking at Treasury's ability to keep the debt, 177 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 6: the bonds, the bills, the notes moving. And in the 178 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 6: last what twenty thirty years, we have half as many 179 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 6: market makers as we used to have, but yet we're 180 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 6: moving eight times as much paper. One bad treasury sale 181 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 6: sets off repercussions that my folks back home don't even 182 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 6: have a clue who what the net result will be. 183 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 6: That's what we're looking at, making sure does not happen. 184 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:09,439 Speaker 6: A fluid, liquid, rational market and government securities. 185 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 2: Well, we look forward to hearing more about how that 186 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 2: work develops. Republican Congressman Frank Lucas of Oklahoma joining us 187 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 2: live from Capitol Hill. Thank you so much. And I 188 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 2: believe kind of throwing out a new number in the 189 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 2: reconciliation bills, not just one or two three bills. 190 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 5: We'll be here for it if that happens. 191 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, and our political panel will be as well, our 192 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 2: signature one at that Rick Davis stone Court, Capital partner 193 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 2: in Jeanie Shanzino, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for 194 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 2: the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Rick is we're 195 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 2: all here playing the one to two games. Should we 196 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 2: be throwing new numbers into this equation? 197 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 9: Yeah, this was a bit of an interesting interview there, guys. 198 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 9: You know, first Republican in the House that I've heard 199 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 9: who chairs a committee that we should pay attention to, 200 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 9: saying that he's probably going to see multiple reconciliation bills. 201 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 9: I know that committee chair on ways of me wants 202 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:04,719 Speaker 9: one big beautiful bill, and the Speaker wants one big 203 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 9: beautiful bill. So it'll be interesting to see if anybody 204 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 9: in the leadership here's this interview and calls up Frank 205 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 9: and says, hey, what in the world are you talking 206 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 9: about three reconciliation bills. Look, I think that the House 207 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 9: Republicans are on their heels. They he aptly described the 208 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 9: fact that the margins are so thin they can only 209 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 9: govern with one hundred percent of their majority towing the line, 210 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 9: and they don't have it. 211 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 5: I mean, they're not even close. 212 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:38,440 Speaker 9: They're you know, many, many dozen votes probably short of 213 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 9: being able to do one big beautiful bill. So my 214 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 9: guess is they'll struggle with that continuing through the balance 215 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 9: of this week. The Senate will continue to push their 216 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 9: bill through. They've got a little more comfort, as Frank mentioned, 217 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 9: and you're going to see the Senate sort of take 218 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 9: over the agenda here and start pushing their two bill 219 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 9: strategy that is highly likely to succeed, certainly in the Senate. 220 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 4: What we heard from Congress and Smith, let's hear from 221 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 4: the Chairman was on Bloomberg's surveillance this morning. You want 222 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 4: the view of the House, at least we thought it 223 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 4: was here you go. 224 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:11,959 Speaker 10: The House is focused on one big, beautiful bill. It's 225 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 10: the Senate that continues to say that they're going to 226 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 10: do two. But I would just remind all of my 227 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:22,200 Speaker 10: colleagues look at history. It has been thirty eight years 228 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 10: since two different reconciliation bills were signed into law in 229 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 10: the same year. We have smaller majorities in the House 230 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 10: of Representatives now than in the history of Congress. Why 231 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,599 Speaker 10: do we think we can defy those odds is beyond me. 232 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:39,559 Speaker 4: Well so, Genie, based on what we just heard from 233 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 4: Frank Lucas and what we have heard from John Thune 234 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 4: and those in the Senate, is the call coming from 235 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 4: inside the House or not? 236 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 11: Please tell me that some great Bloomberg reporter is on 237 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 11: the hill right now replaying your interview with Lucas. For Smith, 238 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 11: and we can get his reaction of his head blowing 239 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 11: off when he it's worse than two now, in fact, 240 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 11: it may be three. At this point. I happen to 241 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 11: think he is right when you look at the history here, 242 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 11: which is all we can go on in these predictions 243 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 11: with a majority this or a margin this small in 244 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 11: the House, the idea that they could do this more 245 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 11: than once, you know, really defies history. The idea that 246 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 11: they could do it twice maybe, but three times it's 247 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 11: gonna be really, really tough. 248 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 5: And they know this. 249 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 11: I mean, this is what Mike Johnson signed up for. 250 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 11: He still has the hardest job on the hill trying 251 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 11: to negotiate this forward. But the problem is, as we 252 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 11: look at these numbers, they are still very very far 253 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 11: apart when you look at what the conservatives are saying, 254 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 11: you know, sometimes four to five trillion versus what we're 255 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 11: hearing from the moderates, which is a much more moderate 256 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 11: as you'd expect, you know, five hundred billion to a trillion. 257 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 11: So can they do this, yeah, but it is going 258 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 11: to take a lot of work. And the problem is, 259 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 11: as usual in the House and the Congress as a whole, 260 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 11: the calendar and really the clock doesn't work for them while. 261 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 2: Here well, and this is just on reconciliation, let alone 262 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 2: keeping the government funded beyond mid March or raising the 263 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 2: debt ceiling, which is going to be required in the 264 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 2: next few months here, Genie, Historically you would probably see 265 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 2: bipartisanship and Democrats playing ball on those things. Is that 266 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 2: going to happen this time around. 267 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,520 Speaker 11: It's such a good question, Kayllie. I was just listening 268 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 11: to Kristin Gillibrand talk to some of her constituents, and 269 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 11: I have to say, now, you know, this is not 270 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 11: a broad swath, but just you know, people talking to her, 271 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 11: they are very critical the base of the Democratic Party 272 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 11: for Democrats going with the White House even on some 273 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:53,559 Speaker 11: of these nominations. So when you talk about supporting them 274 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 11: as they try to keep the government open, I think 275 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 11: Democrats are going to have a very tough time doing that, 276 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 11: given that the President is going whole full hog in 277 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,480 Speaker 11: shutting down programs they care about, and what he has 278 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 11: done in the last two weeks. So I think the 279 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 11: pressure is going to be on Democrats not to go along. 280 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 11: They're going to say, Republicans, you're in the majority, you 281 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 11: do this on your own. 282 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 2: You own it. 283 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 11: And then of course the numbers don't work for Republicans. 284 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 11: They're going to have to negotiate and they're going to 285 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 11: have to give Democrats some of what they want. But 286 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 11: you know, you're hard to press to see how that 287 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 11: can happen at this point. 288 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 4: So, Rick, does all that make a shutdown in March 289 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 4: more likely? 290 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 5: Hard to tell. 291 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 9: I mean, I think it's a little bit premature. I 292 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 9: think there will be a Senate bill, and I think 293 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:45,359 Speaker 9: that it'll be interesting to see whether or not Republicans 294 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 9: can can hold their cauc escape together. 295 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 5: To do it. 296 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 9: It may require House Democrats to go along, and what 297 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 9: the what are the givebacks for that? And we've certainly 298 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 9: seen bipartisan reconciliation bills in the past, and so the 299 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 9: question is is one in the mix here? But look, 300 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,840 Speaker 9: I mean, you know, sure, Chairman Smith's right, I mean, like, 301 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 9: we rarely do two reconciliation bills, but we used to 302 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 9: rarely do reconciliation bills. So like, where's the regular order 303 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 9: that the House leadership promised us as part of their 304 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:24,480 Speaker 9: slate to get elected in leadership? How many of the 305 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 9: appropriations bills are currently being worked on for next year. 306 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 9: I mean, you know, it's just we're going to extend 307 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 9: the do nothing Congress from last cycle to this cycle. 308 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 9: Trouble is, they're party out in power running for reelection 309 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 9: in a year, and if they don't get their act together, 310 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 9: they better plan on having other alternative employment. 311 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 4: Then the least dephonic makes it one. Right, they'll be 312 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 4: a majority of one. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzo our 313 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 4: signature panel back together against Today, guys. 314 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 5: Thank you so much. 315 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 4: As always, Rick's partner at Stone Court Capital or Republican strategist, 316 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 4: and of course Genie is our democratic analyst. S Bloomberg, 317 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 4: politics contributor, political science professor at Iona University. Project twenty 318 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 4: twenty five came up a couple of times over the 319 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 4: past twenty four hours here with regard to what the 320 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 4: Doge was doing, whether this alliance or not. 321 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 5: We're going to talk ahead with one of the authors. 322 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, the president of the Heritage Foundation is on his 323 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 2: way into the studio, Kevin Roberts. We'll be here with 324 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 2: us next on balance of power. Have a lot of 325 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,160 Speaker 2: questions for him now that we're a little over two 326 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 2: weeks into this administration. And that's straight ahead right here. 327 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg TV and radio. 328 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 329 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's durn 330 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: on Apple. 331 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 8: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 332 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 333 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 334 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 2: Keeping in mind, it has only been sixteen days since 335 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 2: Donald Trump was inaugurated as the forty seventh President of 336 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 2: the United States, and very quickly, through executive orders and 337 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 2: other means, has gotten to work on things he promised 338 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 2: on the campaign trail, that's sure, and some of that 339 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 2: not just executed by the President but by those close 340 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 2: to him, including an unelected unconfirmed by the Senate, Elon 341 00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:10,120 Speaker 2: Musk in the Department of Government Officials. 342 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 5: What are they calling it? 343 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 4: A special government employee, Yes, which gives you a certain 344 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 4: period of time to do your thing. But he has not, been, 345 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 4: of course confirmed by the Senate, which is why we've 346 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 4: been asking some folks if maybe that should change, considering 347 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 4: the level of access that he has. We've also heard 348 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 4: the Project twenty twenty five come up a number of times. 349 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:29,959 Speaker 4: The thought that it was a roadmap for what we 350 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 4: are seeing now, because this was a team that was 351 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 4: ready to talk about flooding the zone. 352 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 5: Hundreds of eos. 353 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 4: He's going to sign another one later today, not to 354 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 4: mention some of the sort of proposals that we've heard 355 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 4: the president float here. Which is why it's a great 356 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 4: opportunity to spend time with Kevin Roberts. He is back 357 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 4: with us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, the president 358 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 4: of the Heritage Foundation, one of the authors of that document, 359 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 4: the Pride of Lafayette, Louisiana. 360 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 5: It's great to see you. Welcome back. 361 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 12: It's kind of you to say that, and kind of 362 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 12: hell back. 363 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 5: By all means. 364 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 4: So I'm curious to hear a lot of from you today. 365 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 4: Number One, how you're dealing with the fire hose, the 366 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 4: shock in awe here, is this what you foresaw? And 367 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 4: to the extent that you're kind of squinting your eyes 368 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 4: looking at the campaign and looking at the new administration. 369 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 4: The document that you crafted has quite a bit in 370 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 4: common with what we have seen over the past couple 371 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 4: of weeks, hasn't it. 372 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 12: I look at this as a historian. I was educated 373 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:24,439 Speaker 12: as an early American historian, and I'm hard pressed to 374 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 12: think of another American president who has started with this pace. 375 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 12: It really is from a conservative policy point of view, 376 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,880 Speaker 12: to your question, Joe Shock and Awe. To be clear, 377 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 12: President Trump and Vice President Vance deserve one hundred percent 378 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,439 Speaker 12: of the credit. It is those two men and the 379 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 12: great men and women they've assembled, I think what will 380 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 12: be the greatest cabinet in modern American history, who deserve 381 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 12: all that credit. I think the conservative movement, to your question, 382 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 12: understood that we needed to be much better prepared in 383 00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 12: serving this president than we were the last time. And 384 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 12: to the extent that any of us, you know, whether 385 00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 12: it's us at Heritage or a million other conservatives, had 386 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 12: some tiny role in suggesting a menu of options. That's fine, 387 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,640 Speaker 12: We've done that at Heritage for forty five years. We'll 388 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,200 Speaker 12: do it for the next one hundred and forty five. 389 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 12: But Trump advances your credit for this moment. 390 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:14,920 Speaker 2: Has anything, though, that we've seen take place in the 391 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 2: last two weeks and change not aligned with that point 392 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 2: of view, with the American leadership picture that was outlined 393 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 2: in those nine hundred something pages. 394 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 12: The real thrust of the work that we do at Heritage, 395 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 12: as you know is to articulate an aspirational vision for 396 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 12: revitalizing self governance, restoring freedom to American people. As President 397 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 12: Trump said in his inaugural a revolution of common sense. 398 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 12: And there is no exception to the fact that everything 399 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 12: that he has done up to this point is going 400 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 12: to do all of those things. Heritage stands ready, not 401 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 12: just to help with these executive actions from the outside, obviously, 402 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 12: but very importantly considering another aspect of our work, and 403 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 12: as you've been covering in your show, making sure that 404 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 12: our legislative leaders pass the necessary ten legislation to amplify 405 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,439 Speaker 12: the successful executive orders that have happened up to this well. 406 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:07,879 Speaker 4: Connecting the dots there is going to be an interesting challenge, 407 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 4: and I'd love to hear more from you on that, 408 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 4: but it sounds like you're happy with what we're seeing 409 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,439 Speaker 4: from Elon Musk, this individual who has been thrown in 410 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 4: the middle of this whole thing. A lot of people 411 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 4: in the first Trump administration and now the second said 412 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 4: they voted for Donald Trump because they wanted somebody. 413 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,160 Speaker 5: To come to Washington to break it. 414 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,920 Speaker 4: I don't know if that kind of creative destruction or 415 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 4: whatever you call that sounds like the right answer to you. 416 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 4: What is Elon Musk is the richest man in the world, 417 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 4: the got to do it. 418 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 12: Creative destruction is precisely what Washington needed, and we're celebrating 419 00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 12: at Heritage the first phases of the unearthing of the 420 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 12: grift and corruption that has happened in this city. That 421 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 12: of course is bipartisan, but a bipartisan problem, but also 422 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 12: is something that for all of us who want transparency, 423 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,919 Speaker 12: regardless of our politics, it's a good thing that happens. 424 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 12: And I think that in addition to the creativity that 425 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 12: Donald Trump himself brings to the office, the innovation the 426 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 12: Vice President brings to the office, that having someone with 427 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,919 Speaker 12: the success of Elon Musk to be a partner in 428 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 12: this is really good. And I find it sort of 429 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,400 Speaker 12: comical not suggesting that you were saying this, Joe, that 430 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 12: all of the chatterers say from House and Senate Democrats 431 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 12: about Elon being unelected, never was observed about George Soros 432 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 12: or Alex Soros. And they, of course, with their creative destruction, 433 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 12: have actually destroyed American institutions. The Trump Vance revolution that's 434 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,800 Speaker 12: two weeks in is actually restoring. 435 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,880 Speaker 2: Those except that there is congressional constitutional roles and things 436 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,439 Speaker 2: like appropriations that it does seem Elon Musk might be 437 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:50,399 Speaker 2: stepping on in his blanket, say, push to unauthorize USAID, 438 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 2: get rid of the agency, or move the agency, which 439 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 2: is something that usually would take a congressional act. Do 440 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 2: you not see lapses with what is in keeping with 441 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 2: the US Constitution and what has happened here? 442 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 12: No, I don't see lapses. In fact, I see the opposite. 443 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,920 Speaker 12: I see that what Musk and Trump and Vance are 444 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 12: doing is correcting what have been lapses by the radical left. 445 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 12: Actually worse than lapses, I dare say, intentional desires to 446 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 12: totally ignore the Constitution by creating a fourth branch of government, 447 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 12: the administrative state, that sees as itself more important than 448 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 12: any president of the United States. And all of this 449 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 12: is a corrective to that. But to the heart of 450 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 12: your question, there also has to be a legislative season, 451 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 12: and that legislative season is going to be much more 452 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 12: successful if the House incented, as we heard from on 453 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 12: your show, from one important figure here, Jason Smith, gets 454 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,200 Speaker 12: going on the substance at Heritage. We're agnostic about the 455 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 12: number of bills it takes to get this done. But 456 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 12: the sooner they can deliver on closing the southern border, 457 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 12: on ending the ridiculous over regulation of the American economy, 458 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 12: on extending the Trump tax cuts, I think the more 459 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 12: that we will see these dots to being connected. 460 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 4: How about cutting spending in that reconciliation plan. We had 461 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 4: heard a Freedom caucuss that wants two to three trillion 462 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 4: dollars to emerge out of this bill. Steve Scalize came 463 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 4: out of a meeting last night saying it's one trillion. 464 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,159 Speaker 4: Are you about to be disappointed on this number? With 465 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,359 Speaker 4: a Republican majority of one in the House. 466 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 12: I think that's a very difficult mathematic problem. Yeah, in 467 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 12: two ways, as you know, not just the budget itself, 468 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 12: but also the math in the House, and Speaker Johnson 469 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,160 Speaker 12: and Leader Scalies have their work cut out for them. 470 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 12: Having said that, the most important math problem that the 471 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 12: American people have is that as the government continues to 472 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 12: spend more money than it possesses under both Republican and 473 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,920 Speaker 12: Democrat administrations, the American people, with their own dollars, are 474 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 12: able to afford less and less. That's the number that 475 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:47,919 Speaker 12: that heritage and all of us are focused on. There 476 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,040 Speaker 12: we understand that it might take a couple of bites 477 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,120 Speaker 12: at the apple in order to get this done. The 478 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 12: first bite at the apple needs to be the most 479 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 12: aggressive so that we can actually change that overspending trajectory. 480 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,479 Speaker 2: Russ vote, who, of course, you know quite well. Tomorrow 481 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 2: night is expected to be confirmed by the US Senate 482 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 2: to be the new OMB director. And given what already 483 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 2: has taken place at the OMB in the last week 484 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 2: and change the lawsuits that have followed from confusing messaging 485 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 2: around of funding freeze, are you worried that he's inheriting 486 00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,480 Speaker 2: a bit of a problem right when he steps into 487 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:20,720 Speaker 2: the job, around that ongoing lawsuit, around the needing to 488 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 2: navigate with Elon Musk and the Doge as well. What 489 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:24,480 Speaker 2: is he walking into? 490 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,359 Speaker 12: Great question? I know russ vote very well. He's one 491 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 12: of the great statesmen of our age. And I've never 492 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,359 Speaker 12: seen any problem, any dilemma that Russ is not up 493 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 12: to the task. For having said that, I think what 494 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 12: he's walking into is a tremendous opportunity to correct the 495 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 12: over regulation, the overspending, particularly of the last four years, 496 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 12: but also of the last several administrations. And not only 497 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 12: is Russ up to that task. But I think, as 498 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,160 Speaker 12: I would argue, members of both political parties in Congress 499 00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 12: see Russ and his team in action, they will see 500 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 12: that all they're doing is delivering on the will of 501 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:07,040 Speaker 12: the people with a sophistication and intellect that probably has 502 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 12: not been in that office until the last time Russ 503 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 12: was omb. 504 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:13,199 Speaker 4: Doronter has he been talking with Elon Musk? I wouldn't 505 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 4: want to have to fit in the same room as 506 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 4: Elon Musk. We've already seen an executive order stopping federal 507 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 4: grant's Federal Aid. People at USAID have been put on leave. 508 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,679 Speaker 4: If you're running omb, don't you need to have some 509 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:25,159 Speaker 4: say in this? 510 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 12: I assume that they're talking about that. There's no doubt 511 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,160 Speaker 12: in my mind that Russ will have say in that. 512 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,640 Speaker 12: That's all the more reason that he be confirmed. 513 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 5: As quickly as possible. 514 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 2: I want to ask you about something else that took 515 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,080 Speaker 2: place at the White House yesterday, which was a meeting 516 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,000 Speaker 2: between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In 517 00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 2: a joint news conference that followed, in which the President 518 00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 2: suggested that the US take over Gaza, that the Palestinians 519 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 2: currently there be moved and essentially the US and US 520 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,399 Speaker 2: troops help lead what would be a redevelopment project. And 521 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 2: I do wonder what your view is on US involvement 522 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 2: in the Middle East in that kind of way. When 523 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,159 Speaker 2: we heard the President on the campaign trail repeatedly saying 524 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 2: he doesn't want to see forever wars. 525 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 12: Contrasts what Trump said yesterday and what have been related 526 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 12: actions by his administration with the utter incompetence and fecklessness 527 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 12: of the previous administration. I say that not as a partisan, 528 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 12: which I'm not, but as a historian of American politics, 529 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 12: and the contrast could not be more beneficial for free 530 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,919 Speaker 12: people on the planet, all free people on the planet, 531 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 12: Palestinians included, absolutely. And I think what we were seeing 532 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 12: from Trump with this comment yesterday about Gaza is the 533 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:38,040 Speaker 12: reinsertion of the American presidency and of America generally as 534 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 12: having moral clarity in that region and around the world. 535 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 12: We trust fully the details that President Trump will come 536 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,680 Speaker 12: up with regarding what we do with the Gaza strip 537 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 12: with the Middle East generally, And I think over time 538 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 12: passing days, passing weeks, as more and more people across 539 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 12: the world enjoy peace because of Trump's moral clarity. We 540 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 12: will understand that that kind of courage is precisely what's 541 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 12: been lacking over the last four years. 542 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 5: We only have about a minute left. Kevin. 543 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,959 Speaker 4: You must shudder at the thought of what it would cost, however, 544 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,399 Speaker 4: for the US to take over the Gaza strip, clean 545 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 4: it out, rebuild the entire thing. If we're at a 546 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 4: moment now where we're trying to enter a period of austerity, 547 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 4: how do you have both? 548 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,399 Speaker 12: Yeah, I shudder at the two hundred and fifty billion 549 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 12: dollars that we've spent on Ukraine for a ward that 550 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:21,920 Speaker 12: the Ukrainians could never win. 551 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 5: Well, we were being lied. 552 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 12: To by the deep state in Washington, d c. Which 553 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 12: is probably financially. 554 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 5: Confroming less to go around now, though, doesn't. 555 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 12: That that's exactly right? And that's why I say, if 556 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,879 Speaker 12: you think about comments that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz 557 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 12: said today, they're going to get the details on that. Right. 558 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 12: If you look at Trump's track record regarding foreign policy 559 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,399 Speaker 12: and America's leadership in the world, it is robust, but 560 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 12: it's also not expensive. 561 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,200 Speaker 4: It's great to have you with us, Kevin Roberts, Heritage 562 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,159 Speaker 4: Foundation President, with us back at the table, here on 563 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,720 Speaker 4: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Don't be a stranger, come back again, Thanks, Kaylee. 564 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 4: Fascinating conversation. As we wait to hear the latest from 565 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,160 Speaker 4: the White House on this, we're hearing pushback from world 566 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 4: leaders on the idea of taking over Gaza, but also 567 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 4: a White House that has yet to kind of detail 568 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 4: the plan. 569 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see if we hear more from the President. 570 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 2: He'll be exciting executive orders later this afternoon, so we 571 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 2: may have an opportunity for further clarification and we'll get 572 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 2: more into this next with Natasha Hall from CSIS Straight Ahead. 573 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 2: Here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 574 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:25,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketchs 575 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern. 576 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 8: On Alma Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 577 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 8: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 578 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,680 Speaker 8: us live on YouTube. 579 00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 4: On the Wednesday edition Here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, 580 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines as we try to 581 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 4: answer some of the many questions that were raised following 582 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,719 Speaker 4: President Trump's news conference last evening when he suggested that 583 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 4: the US didn't suggest he said the US will take 584 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 4: over the Gaza Strip, raising questions about how some two 585 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 4: point two million Palestinians would be moved from that area, 586 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:04,080 Speaker 4: whether they would need to be moved forcibly, what it 587 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:08,720 Speaker 4: would cost to clean up the massive destruction left by 588 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 4: the war between Israel and Hamas the unexploded ordinance. Then, 589 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 4: of course, the idea of developing what Donald Trump calls 590 00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 4: beautiful waterfront property. 591 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 5: Here's how it went in the East Room last night. 592 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 13: The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we 593 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 13: will do a job with it too. We'll own it 594 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 13: and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded 595 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 13: bombs and other weapons on the site. Level the site 596 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:37,680 Speaker 13: and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out, 597 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 13: create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of 598 00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:46,000 Speaker 13: jobs and housing for the people of the area. I 599 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 13: don't want to be cute, I don't want to be 600 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 13: a wise guy. But the Rivi era of the Middle East, 601 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 13: this could be something that could be so bad, this 602 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,880 Speaker 13: could be so magnificent. 603 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,840 Speaker 2: The Rivie era of the Middle East. It's on that 604 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 2: note that we turn to nato Asha Hall, senior fellow 605 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:03,400 Speaker 2: with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic 606 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 2: and International Studies here with US on balance of power Natasha. 607 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 2: As Joe outlined, we have many questions around this proposition, 608 00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 2: but I guess to begin with where I assume this 609 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 2: would need to start. Before the US can go in 610 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 2: and redevelop Palestinians would need to be moved out of Gaza. 611 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 2: Do you see the Arab countries that Donald Trump has suggested, 612 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:26,200 Speaker 2: Jordan and Egypt agreeing to take in those millions of people. 613 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 7: Well, they've been unequivocal to date. They will not. This 614 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 7: is a non starter for both Jordan and Egypt. And 615 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 7: previous presidents understood that invested quite heavily in the national 616 00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 7: security of Jordan and Egypt. Forcibly displacing two million Palestinians 617 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 7: into those territories would create an enormous amount of upheaval, 618 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 7: not just in those countries, but in the region and 619 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 7: possibly internationally as well. And Saudi Arabia has also sounded 620 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 7: the alarm and said that they would not agree to 621 00:30:59,040 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 7: such a plan. 622 00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:02,120 Speaker 5: Isn't that enough to stop this? 623 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 4: The King of Jordan will be at the White House 624 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 4: next week stop this idea. Not that anything is in 625 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:11,400 Speaker 4: motion here. Knowing Natasha that there was a hope to 626 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 4: rekindle talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia that wouldn't be 627 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 4: possible at the same time as a development like this 628 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 4: would it. 629 00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:24,720 Speaker 7: Yes, I mean, given this announcement and the hindering of USAID, 630 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 7: I think next week's meeting with King Abdullah will probably 631 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 7: want to be one of the most awkward with a 632 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:35,720 Speaker 7: stalwart US ally and recent memory, I do suspect that 633 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 7: President Trump is probably trying to push Jordan and Egypt, 634 00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 7: as well as Saudi Arabia into accepting far more than 635 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 7: they thought they would be willing to when it came 636 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 7: to the Palestinian issue. President Trump might also be throwing 637 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 7: a bone to Netanyahu's far right coalition who have been 638 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 7: against the ceasefire from day one, and hopefully this moves 639 00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 7: us into the second phase, but it still is an 640 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 7: unprecedented statement that is I think significantly throws international peace 641 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 7: and security in jeopardy. 642 00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 2: Well as we consider a second phase here Natasha, knowing 643 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,880 Speaker 2: that this initial forty two day ceasefire is going to 644 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 2: be expiring just weeks from now, is phase two going 645 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 2: to begin or are these negotiations that are essentially going 646 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 2: to have to restart along with a resumption of hostilities. 647 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 7: So that's the big question. Netsagna, who in sort of 648 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,920 Speaker 7: the press conference yesterday, didn't seem too optimistic about Phase two, 649 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 7: but one would hope that it starts immediately. We need 650 00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,840 Speaker 7: to start to continue to see humanitarian aid coming in, 651 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 7: but also heavy machinery. There is, you know, thousands of 652 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,040 Speaker 7: tons of rubble in Gaza right now. There are at 653 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,920 Speaker 7: least ten thousand bodies underneath that rubble. There needs to 654 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,920 Speaker 7: be some kind of operation in place to get to 655 00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 7: get the Strip moving again. Regardless of this forced displacement 656 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 7: plan that President Trump announced yesterday, I think the foremost 657 00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 7: priority is getting the hostages home and safely those that 658 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:14,880 Speaker 7: are still alive, and really continuing to funnel humanitarian aid 659 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:15,600 Speaker 7: into the Strip. 660 00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 4: Conventional wisdom is Benjamin et Yahoo does not want to 661 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 4: reach a phase two. Will he convinced Donald Trump to 662 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 4: believe the same. 663 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 7: Well, it seems like with the press conference yesterday they 664 00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 7: were in lockstep. You know. Prime Minister net Yahoo was 665 00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 7: smiling throughout President Trump's statements. It did not seem like 666 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 7: he was optimistic about a Phase two. The Phase two 667 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 7: would obviously be more aid, but also again the return 668 00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 7: of Israeli hostages, which the Israeli people want, and so 669 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,080 Speaker 7: I think this really puts them in danger at this 670 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 7: stage and really throws the security of that region in 671 00:33:56,400 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 7: danger as well. And we've heard from Israel's ambassador to 672 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 7: the UN that Israel does not plan on reoccupying the 673 00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,720 Speaker 7: Gaza Strip, has no plans to do so, but also 674 00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:11,319 Speaker 7: does not want Hamas to be in control there, and 675 00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:14,319 Speaker 7: they certainly are still in control there. So there's a 676 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,560 Speaker 7: lot of details to be worked out, a lot of 677 00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 7: loopholes that I think the United States and Israel could exploit. Unfortunately, 678 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,000 Speaker 7: it just remains to be seen what that will actually 679 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:24,960 Speaker 7: look like on the ground. 680 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 2: So what is going to be the role here is 681 00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 2: This was obviously President Trump who was speaking about this, 682 00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,719 Speaker 2: but he has Steve Witkoff who's a special envoy to 683 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,319 Speaker 2: the region. There's Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, who 684 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,239 Speaker 2: I would presume is going to be involved in this 685 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,359 Speaker 2: as well. Who are the kind of power players here, 686 00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:45,040 Speaker 2: if you will, that will be helping push this narrative forward? 687 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,359 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean that kind of remains to be seen. 688 00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 7: Many of the people that we thought would be in 689 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 7: the administration are not going to be But clearly Witkoff 690 00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,560 Speaker 7: will play a major role in this, as he has 691 00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 7: with ceasefire negotiations in the past. Mike Waltz, the National 692 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,279 Speaker 7: Security Advisor, will also be moving things forward, and I 693 00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,920 Speaker 7: assume Mike Huckabee, who is you know, will be the 694 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,719 Speaker 7: Israel's ambassador there as well, will be pushing many of 695 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,640 Speaker 7: these things forward. The question is, how is any of 696 00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:19,440 Speaker 7: this going to happen when US eight has essentially been 697 00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,000 Speaker 7: shut down, which is sort of the other piece of 698 00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,319 Speaker 7: this puzzle, when US funding to ANUDWA has also been 699 00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 7: shut down as well, because that is essentially part of 700 00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:33,800 Speaker 7: the second phase and the third phase of the ceasefire arrangement. 701 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,440 Speaker 4: Much has been said in the last twenty four hours 702 00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,920 Speaker 4: following that New York Times report about Iran trying to 703 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 4: advance its way to an atomic weapon. Will there be 704 00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,200 Speaker 4: a preemptive attack against Iran's nuclear program? 705 00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:53,239 Speaker 7: So many sort of security analysts are saying that the 706 00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:57,480 Speaker 7: window to do this when Iran's air defenses are down 707 00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,120 Speaker 7: is probably about eight to nine months. So I think 708 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:05,759 Speaker 7: if we do see some kind of premeditated, sort of 709 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:10,640 Speaker 7: preemptive attack on Iran's nuclear program, it would happen within 710 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 7: that time frame. So many of us are holding our 711 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,840 Speaker 7: breath to see if that does, in fact happen, because 712 00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:21,520 Speaker 7: it is the potential is definitely there with the maximum 713 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:26,360 Speaker 7: pressure campaign that President Trump just ordered restarted, and with 714 00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:31,200 Speaker 7: this recent meeting with Netanya who as well well. 715 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,840 Speaker 2: So if the pressure is there in Natasha, do you 716 00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:37,359 Speaker 2: see a greater likelihood that that happens under this administration 717 00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,440 Speaker 2: Compared to the conversation we were initially having with the 718 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,480 Speaker 2: Biden administration encouraging Israel not to preemptively attack in the 719 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,120 Speaker 2: wake of Iran's second attempt to hit Israel directly. 720 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,160 Speaker 7: I think the potential is much higher during this administration. 721 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:55,359 Speaker 7: I think President Biden wanted to avoid any kind of 722 00:36:55,520 --> 00:37:00,439 Speaker 7: Israeli US attack on Iran. But with this administration, really, 723 00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:02,680 Speaker 7: who knows. I mean, every day we're waking up to 724 00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:06,680 Speaker 7: a new reality. It could be just President Trump's bluster 725 00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,880 Speaker 7: in order to get a new deal with Iran that 726 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,640 Speaker 7: is more advantageous to Israeli in US interests, But that 727 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 7: remains to be seen, and undoubtedly, I'm sure it creates 728 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,120 Speaker 7: a lot of vulnerability for the Iranian regime at the 729 00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:22,640 Speaker 7: moment too. 730 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 4: President Trump said yesterday in the Oval Office that if 731 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,840 Speaker 4: there were an attempt on his life by Iran, it 732 00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 4: would result in total obliteration. What is the purpose of 733 00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:35,120 Speaker 4: saying that out loud? 734 00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,399 Speaker 7: I mean, I think it's the same purpose as he's 735 00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,719 Speaker 7: been saying many of these things out loud. You know, 736 00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,800 Speaker 7: I don't think Iran would ever try to assassinate President 737 00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,040 Speaker 7: Trump at the end of the day. They are a 738 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 7: pragmatic actor despite their errors. But you know, I think 739 00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,920 Speaker 7: that this was essentially saying that everything is on the 740 00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,120 Speaker 7: table if Iran tries to do tries to do something, 741 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:02,880 Speaker 7: and that the US would you work with allies in 742 00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 7: the region to inflict maximum punishment on Iran if necessary. 743 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:14,080 Speaker 7: Why he alluded to the assassination I have no idea. 744 00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 7: Maybe just speaking to his base and his audience. 745 00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:22,440 Speaker 2: Well, when we consider Iran specifically in those who have 746 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:27,040 Speaker 2: aligned themselves with Iran or at least do have a relationship, 747 00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:30,160 Speaker 2: thinking here of China Russia as well, I guess is 748 00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:34,400 Speaker 2: typically included in what's frequently described as this access of 749 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:38,160 Speaker 2: evil by people we speak to on this program. Natasha, 750 00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,920 Speaker 2: how do you think other adversaries like China and Russia 751 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,000 Speaker 2: are watching the way in which Donald Trump navigates the 752 00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,120 Speaker 2: Middle East and the kinds of things that he is 753 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,320 Speaker 2: saying about what is going to happen in the future. 754 00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,400 Speaker 7: Well, back to my original point on international peace and security, 755 00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:58,359 Speaker 7: the way that President Trump is talking about Gaza right 756 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:04,160 Speaker 7: now parkens back to colonial days, and it certainly gives 757 00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:08,640 Speaker 7: Russia and it gives China an excuse to go after 758 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:14,040 Speaker 7: its colonial ambitions. So the near abroad for Russia, including Ukraine, 759 00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,920 Speaker 7: and for China Taiwan and the South China Sea, and 760 00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:21,000 Speaker 7: so I think that that is the danger of using 761 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:24,400 Speaker 7: this kind of rhetoric, even if he doesn't plan to 762 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:28,719 Speaker 7: actually implement it in any way, it's quite dangerous for 763 00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:33,040 Speaker 7: the world order, more generally, the world order that the 764 00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:36,680 Speaker 7: United States was instrumental in creating after World War Two. 765 00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,399 Speaker 7: If we go away from that and towards just real 766 00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,920 Speaker 7: estate deals, I think it portends a very scary future, 767 00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:45,839 Speaker 7: indeed for all of us. 768 00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:48,960 Speaker 5: He was asked if he plans to visit the region. 769 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,879 Speaker 4: President Trump said that yes, he would like to visit 770 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,680 Speaker 4: Israel as well as Gaza. How would a presidential visit 771 00:39:56,480 --> 00:40:01,239 Speaker 4: be treated on the Gaza Strip, Well. 772 00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:05,720 Speaker 7: I think poorly. There would have to be probably unprecedented 773 00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:09,480 Speaker 7: security for President Trump, It's unclear why he would do that. 774 00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,280 Speaker 7: I would welcome him to go to the Gaza strip 775 00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,319 Speaker 7: and see the kind of destruction that is there, but 776 00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,080 Speaker 7: also talk to the people that have suffered through that 777 00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,880 Speaker 7: destruction as well. He said that, you know, Gaza as 778 00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:27,000 Speaker 7: hell and it's unlivable and all of these things, but 779 00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:30,600 Speaker 7: there's a reason for that because of over fifteen months 780 00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,440 Speaker 7: of devastating war, and so, you know, there needs to 781 00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:38,440 Speaker 7: be reconstruction, but there needs to be reconstruction for the 782 00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:41,600 Speaker 7: people that live there as well. And so you know, 783 00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:45,759 Speaker 7: I suspect there will not be a warm response for 784 00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:50,120 Speaker 7: President Trump and Gaza, but I do hope that he actually, 785 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:53,280 Speaker 7: you know, connects with people on the ground. 786 00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,480 Speaker 4: Natasha, It's always great to spend some time. Natasha Hall, 787 00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,359 Speaker 4: Senior Fellow with the Middle East Program with the Center 788 00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:07,400 Speaker 4: for Strategic and International Studies c SIS. Thanks for listening 789 00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:10,680 Speaker 4: to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe 790 00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,440 Speaker 4: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you 791 00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,279 Speaker 4: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every 792 00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:20,520 Speaker 4: weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.