1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll, coming to you from Paris. This week. 2 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: As we've been covering the turmoil in French politics. Instead 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 1: of our usual Here's Why, this week, we wanted to 4 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: bring you an episode of Bloomberg's Big Take podcast. I 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: joined host David Gore to talk about what's been going 6 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,599 Speaker 1: on in France and what might happen next. I'll be 7 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,119 Speaker 1: back with a new episode of Here's Why next week, 8 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: but for now, Here's the Big Take. Bloomberg Audio Studios, 9 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: Podcasts radio news. 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 2: In France on Wednesday, President Emmanuel Macron's government lost a 11 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 2: no confidence vote. Politicians on the right and the left 12 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 2: called for that vote and supported it after Prime Minister 13 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: Michel Barnier pushed through a budget without parliamentary support. Crisis 14 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,639 Speaker 2: on the brink as France's government faces a vote of 15 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 2: no confidence. Bonnier has recently falls through a budget bill 16 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 2: without a vote. 17 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 1: Is collapse now imminent for this French government? 18 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 2: Will that no confidence vote effectively end Barnier's short tenure 19 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 2: as Prime minister? Barnier addressed the nation just before the vote, 20 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 2: calling it an honor to have served with dignity France 21 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 2: and its people. He'd been on the job for just 22 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 2: under three months. 23 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: Chuu dircus restaur pourmois a la. 24 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 2: Today there are a lot of questions about the future, 25 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 2: big ones about President Macron's prospects, what happens to his 26 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:31,040 Speaker 2: political party, and what's next for France. 27 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 1: No government has fallen to one of these motions of 28 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 1: no confidence since nineteen sixty two. 29 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Stephen Carroll has been in Paris to cover the 30 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: vote and its fallout. 31 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: That time around was solved by calling early parliamentary elections. 32 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: But this time around, President Macron doesn't have that option 33 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: because he already did it this year, wedding France into 34 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: the political and potentially economic unknown. 35 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 2: I'm David Gera and this is the big take from 36 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News today on the show Turbulence and Uncertainty in 37 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 2: France after the government was toppled, What led to the 38 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 2: vote and what do we know about what comes next? 39 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 2: Moments after the vote, I caught up with Bloomberg Stephen 40 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 2: Kirol asked him to walk us through what happened. Get 41 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 2: us up to speed here. What was the outcome of 42 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 2: the vote? 43 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:23,519 Speaker 1: Well, look, Michel Varnier has added an unhappy records to 44 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 1: his long career. That is, he is the shortest serving 45 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: prime minister in modern French political history, just two months 46 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: and twenty nine days in office, as he was felled 47 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 1: by a vote of no confidence in Parliament. Three hundred 48 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: and thirty one deputies voted against him and he needed 49 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty eight for the motion to pass. 50 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 2: Stephen Mark this moment for us, you're kind of nodding 51 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 2: to the historic nature of this. What does it mean 52 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 2: for the country moving forward? 53 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 1: It plunges France into a relative political unknown. I say 54 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: relative because this has happened once before in nineteen sixty two, 55 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 1: but the way out of that particular crisis was early 56 00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: legislative elections. Emmanuel Macron doesn't have that choice this time 57 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,519 Speaker 1: around because he did that last June, which means he 58 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: can't call new ones until next July. So for the moment, 59 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: it means that France has no government. There will be 60 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 1: caretaker ministers in place. Emmanuel Macron needs to find somebody 61 00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: new to take on the impossible challenge as it now looks, 62 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: of being Prime minister and trying to cobble together some 63 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 1: sort of working majority or minority in Parliament, which on 64 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: the mats looks very difficult. There isn't an easy constituencies 65 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: to win over, so that means no policymaking for the moment, 66 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: no budget for twenty twenty five. Once we go past 67 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: the thirty first of December, we get into a special 68 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 1: arrangement where essentially the French government keeps the lights on 69 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: and works month to month. But that could potentially cause 70 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: further concerns on markets, but also it could see them 71 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: falling fell of the European Union. It's already underwatch for 72 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: what the EU calls an excessive deficit procedure because its 73 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 1: deficit is too high. Well, that deficit's going to get 74 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: even bigger. 75 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 2: Now, this of course was something of great popular interest, 76 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 2: of interest to investors as well. I know you've been 77 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 2: paying attention to that. What was the market reaction the 78 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 2: run up to the vote and what have we seen since? 79 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: Well, look, in the days running up to it, there 80 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 1: were a number of again unhappy records that we saw 81 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: on French markets. So the spread of borrowing costs between 82 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 1: France and Germany widened to the most since twenty twelve, 83 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 1: that was the height of the Eurozone crisis. And it's 84 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: always the way that we think about debt in the 85 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: Euro area, Germany is considered the safest bet, so the 86 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: further away you are from Germany when it comes to 87 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: borrowing costs, essentially the worst perception that investors haven you now. 88 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: Our colleagues who are experts in the markets will also 89 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 1: point out that France's ten year borrowing cost is still 90 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: below three percent. It's two point nine percent or in 91 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: and around there, and that still means that you know, 92 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: if you're going to get a mortgage in France, you're 93 00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 1: still going to get a pretty good rate on a 94 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: fixed rate mortgage because French or because they are fixed 95 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,920 Speaker 1: for the whole lifetime, of around three percent, which looks 96 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 1: pretty good if you're sitting in the UK or in 97 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: the US. The other reaction that we've seen on markets 98 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 1: has been in the Euro weakening further, but difficult to 99 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: unpick exactly how much of that is around France because 100 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 1: dollar strength has been such a theme of recent weeks 101 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 1: as well. We've got the euro hovering around one oh five, 102 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 1: and you do have to look for some further sort 103 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,920 Speaker 1: of more outlandish calls for anyone who sees that going 104 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 1: back to parody, at least in the short term. The 105 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: actual reaction once the vote happened, a bit of a 106 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: shrug from markets they'd seen it coming. We're not expecting 107 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: any major moves on the back of that. We'll be 108 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: watching French equities to see if French banks are put 109 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: under further pressure. 110 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 2: Stephen, This vote came after a string of speeches. What 111 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 2: did we hear in the run up to the vote? 112 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 2: Who are the key players? Who's spoken? What did you 113 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 2: take away from what they had? 114 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 1: The same so we heard in the leader of the 115 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: far left party in Parliament, Alic Correll, and also from 116 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 1: Manine le Penn from the far right. They were very 117 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: keen to point to this being an unfair budget, a 118 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: budget that was not what they wanted to see from 119 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 1: a government and as they saw it hurting the French people. 120 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: Lots of rhetoric and high rhetoric, as you'd expect from 121 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: French politicians when given this sort of pulpit, knowing well 122 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: that they had the numbers to topple Michel Bargnia. Michelle 123 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: Barnier himself had the chance to defend himself in Parliament 124 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: before the vote was called, calling this a moment of 125 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 1: truth and a moment of responsibility for the country. 126 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 2: Introduce us to Barnier. What's this background? Why did Macron 127 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:32,559 Speaker 2: choose him as Prime minister. 128 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: Michelle Barnier has been a fixture of French politics for 129 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: some fifty years. It was the late seventies when he 130 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 1: was first elected as an MP for the Utsavoir region 131 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: where he's from and the veteran around the French Alps, 132 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,919 Speaker 1: and he's someone who's served as a minister in previous governments. 133 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: He was a member of the center right Republicans party 134 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:52,280 Speaker 1: here in France. He went on to a career in 135 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 1: the European Union as a European Commissioner and also the 136 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 1: EU's chief negotiator on Brexit. He was a bit of 137 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 1: a surprise choice for Emmanuel Macron to bring in as 138 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: Prime minister. They're not from the same political family, but 139 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: in Michelle Barnier, he was looking for somebody who was 140 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: perhaps not in the fray of day to day politics, 141 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: someone who might be able to bring together forces that 142 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: weren't traditionally inclined to support Emmanuel Macron's group in Parliament, 143 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: and also leaning into his legendary negotiation skills. We learned 144 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: this during Brexit that he was an extremely astute negotiator. 145 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 1: He used the phrase so often during the Brexit negotiations 146 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: that time is ticking, and really time was ticking for 147 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: Michelle Barnier from the moment that he took up this 148 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: job in September. He felt he'd achieved the best compromise possible, 149 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: but didn't have the numbers to vote it through, and 150 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: that's what's led us to this no confidence vote. 151 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 2: In his speech, Michelle Barnier said he was sure that 152 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 2: the no confidence vote would quote make everything more severe 153 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 2: and harder coming up, the fiscal and political problems France 154 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 2: is facing and what's likely to happen next. France's government 155 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 2: has lost a no confidence vote, the first one in decades. 156 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 2: I called up Bloomberg Stephen Carroll and asked him to 157 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 2: explain how we got here and what this outcome means. 158 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 2: What kicked all this off was that decision by Prime 159 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 2: Minister Michelle Barnier to push through a budget for twenty 160 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 2: twenty five without parliamentary support. That is what led to 161 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 2: Wednesday's vote. What made this budget, the budget Michelle Barnier 162 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 2: pushed through parliament so unpopular, so. 163 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 1: It wasn't an easy task to begin with. There were 164 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: lots of individually unpopular measures in this to do with 165 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: the reimbursement of medical costs provided by the state. Currently, 166 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:51,079 Speaker 1: and most controversially, was this idea of pensions and France 167 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: state pensions go up every year in line with inflation, 168 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: and one of the things Michelle Barnier tried to do 169 00:08:56,200 --> 00:09:00,040 Speaker 1: to save money was delay that increase for pensioners that 170 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 1: would have been due to come into force from the 171 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,719 Speaker 1: first of January until later in the year, essentially just 172 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:08,679 Speaker 1: trying to save a bit of money by implementing that 173 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 1: increase a bit later on. And that was one of 174 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:15,319 Speaker 1: the red lines that Marie Lapenn had in her negotiations 175 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 1: with Michel Bonnier running up to this particular crisis point, 176 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: and that's probably one of the most controversial measures that 177 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: he was trying to pass. 178 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 2: On the heels of this no confidence vote, President Macron 179 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 2: can't call for another special election until next summer. What 180 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:30,959 Speaker 2: is likely to happen next year, there. 181 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 1: Are a couple of deadlines that we have to worry about. 182 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: One of them is that the budget needs to be 183 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 1: passed by the end of the year. Now there isn't 184 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: a US style government shutdown on the cards for France. 185 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:44,839 Speaker 1: But it does enter relatively untested territory where there is 186 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: an emergency provision which allows taxes to be collected, minimum 187 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: services to be provided, welfare benefits to be paid, for example, 188 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: but will make things very difficult in the running of 189 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: the country because it's essentially just maintaining the nature and 190 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,079 Speaker 1: the business of the state without being able to make 191 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: any strategic decisions. 192 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 2: Stephen says. The outcome of the no confidence vote has 193 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 2: also raised questions about what's next for the far right 194 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 2: leader Marine Lapenne and the National Rally party. 195 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,959 Speaker 1: She's been building her political capital in France, you know, 196 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: for more than ten years, essentially trying to make a 197 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: bid for the presidency. She came pretty close last time around. 198 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:26,319 Speaker 1: Now Emmanuel Macon's term runs until twenty twenty seven. He's 199 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: shown no signs that he will resign early. Marie Leapenn 200 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: herself is facing a court decision that's due to common 201 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: March of next year, which could see her barred from 202 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: running in future elections. 203 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:42,199 Speaker 2: Lapenn and National Rally have been accused of embezzlement of 204 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,319 Speaker 2: misappropriating funds from the European Union. She denies all wrongdoing, 205 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 2: but prosecutors have asked a judge to ban Lapenn from 206 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 2: holding public office for five years. 207 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 1: That's something that could be preying on her mind, as 208 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: if she's trying to force Emmanuel Macron to call an 209 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 1: early presidential election, something that he can still do. Looks 210 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: very unlikely at this point, but that's one theory that's 211 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 1: being bandied around by French political commentators that perhaps May 212 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 1: Lapen has decided to catch in the chips of our 213 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: political capital and try and force Emmanuel Macron into an 214 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: impossible situation. 215 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,559 Speaker 2: Steven, As you say, Macron is resisting any calls to 216 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 2: resign early. What does this mean for him and for 217 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:22,959 Speaker 2: his party? 218 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: It puts them in a very difficult position. There are 219 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: a number of figures who are lining up to try 220 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 1: and replace Emmanuel Macron as the presidential candidate for his 221 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: party in twenty twenty seven, because he'll have served his 222 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: maximum number of terms as president, but it's very difficult 223 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: to see who their constituency will be by that time. 224 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: This budget crisis has reminded voters and politicians that there 225 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: are other parties out there, There are other political forces 226 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:58,439 Speaker 1: at play, and for now they look more powerful. So 227 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: how a government can pressed between now and twenty twenty 228 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:06,000 Speaker 1: seven is very unclear. What can they do. What compromises 229 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: would that government have to make with Mary Lapenn's party 230 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: or with the left wing parties to try and pass 231 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 1: a budget and continuing even minimum functioning. 232 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 2: One possibility, Stephen says, is that the next prime minister 233 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 2: could choose to build an alliance with the Socialist Party. 234 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: They picked up a lot of seats in the last 235 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,599 Speaker 1: election and they represent one of the biggest parts of 236 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,559 Speaker 1: this left wing alliance. The difficulty will be trying to 237 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: convince them to separate themselves from the hard left parties 238 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 1: and potentially sign their own political death sentence by going 239 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 1: into power with the Centrists and the center right. There'll 240 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: be many people in that party who would be wary 241 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,080 Speaker 1: of this as an option, but looking at the numbers, 242 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 1: really it does seem like the most likely option if 243 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: you were to try and build a coalition. Of course, 244 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: plenty of convincing to be done there. But even in 245 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: the rhetoric that we heard from lawmakers from Macron's part 246 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,600 Speaker 1: in the days running up to this no confidence vote, 247 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: they mention over and over again the stalwart reputation of 248 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: the Socialist Party in French politics and their long history 249 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,680 Speaker 1: of government. They're trying to appeal to them to peel 250 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 1: away from that left wing alliance and join into something 251 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: that could form a functional government. For the moment, that's 252 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: the only option that looks possible without some major political 253 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: shifts from the parties involved. 254 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 2: We've talked about what this means for politicians and political parties. 255 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 2: How about for the country itself. 256 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 1: People in France are worried about, like everywhere else, the 257 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 1: cost of living and public services. There's very little hope 258 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 1: out there that this impass, however it is resolved, will 259 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 1: actually lead to people's needs being addressed, their wants being 260 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 1: addressed by the next government. It's very difficult to try 261 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: and see how someone, any political figure, could inspire the 262 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: sort of hope that Emmanuel Macron did when he arrived 263 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: you into the presidential race late in twenty seventeen. That 264 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: sort of uniting figure hasn't been found really by any 265 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: party in recent elections. Marie Lapenn has a large constituency 266 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,720 Speaker 1: on the right, Jean Luc Malauchamp has a large constituency 267 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: on the far left, but neither have been quite big 268 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 1: enough to either break through and make it to the presidency. 269 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: Or to be able to form a sufficient number of 270 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: alliances in Parliament to become a prime minister. This leads 271 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: to an interesting question about who will own the center 272 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: by the end of this political cycle. There are plenty 273 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: of players out there, but there's still a lot of 274 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: questions about how anyone can win over and address the 275 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 1: concerns that French people have about their future in a 276 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: more uncertain world. 277 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 2: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Goura. 278 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 2: This episode was produced by David Fox. It was edited 279 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 2: by Tracy Sandielson and Ergol O'Brien. It was fact checked 280 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 2: by Adriana Tapia and mixed and sound design by Alex Sagura. 281 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 2: Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is 282 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 2: Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is Nicole Beeamster Bor Sage 283 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 2: Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. If you liked this episode, 284 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 2: make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take wherever 285 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. 286 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.