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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? Five five dollars?

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Speaker 1: This is a ratable lep hop they tackle one.

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Speaker 2: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness, I don't

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Speaker 2: mispeak my sprone the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 3: All right, hit that horn, very bless.

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Speaker 1: What is up?

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Speaker 3: Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast. This is our Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl fifty nine touchdown show. I am Chris Rabon of

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Speaker 2: the Action Network and Fantasy Labs, and I am joined

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Speaker 2: by one of the top rankors projectors in the game,

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Speaker 2: the odds maker, Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: Sean, what's going on? What's up?

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Speaker 1: Happy? Last our final touchdown show of the year, but

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Speaker 1: looking forward to I have a couple long long shots,

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Speaker 1: so looking forward to this one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and pretty good show for us. Last week we

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Speaker 2: had the Saquon two and three, the Worthy Hunt Cook

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Speaker 2: heurd of Samuel at some long odds. So I'll try

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Speaker 2: to finish up strong here. And quick reminder that all

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Speaker 2: of our fantasy football content available right now over at

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Speaker 2: Fantasy labs dot com. Of our rankings, projections, for the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. You can find them at Fantasy labs dot com.

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Speaker 2: And we've got quick slip links in the YouTube live

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Speaker 2: chat as we go, and we'll also have a link

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Speaker 2: to all of the bets that we discuss in today's

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Speaker 2: episode description once we wrap up. So if you want

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Speaker 2: to tail some of these we give out, just look

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Speaker 2: for those quick slip links again in the episode description.

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Speaker 2: All right, Eagles Chiefs Chiefs one and a half point favorites,

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Speaker 2: the total around forty nine.

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Speaker 3: Sean, we'll start to Eagles. Who do you like for

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Speaker 3: Philly to score?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so before we get started, I'm on yesterday's Pava Paluza.

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Speaker 1: You had mentioned that you already in our outline you

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Speaker 1: took all the sharp, like really good value plays, so

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Speaker 1: I rubber stamp all your picks. So what I'm doing

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Speaker 1: is I'm picking a ranom mass long shot from each team.

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Speaker 1: So for the Eagle side, of course, I'm going to

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Speaker 1: have to go Johnny Wilson here at thirty to one.

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Speaker 1: For those of you that don't know who Johnny Wilson is,

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Speaker 1: He's the Eagles number four wide receiver, which means he

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Speaker 1: rarely sees the field, so he absolutely deserves pretty big

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Speaker 1: odds to score, but I think, you know, thirty to

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Speaker 1: one is a bit too high for him specifically, because

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Speaker 1: his role is to be a big target in the

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Speaker 1: end zone in specific packages. So he's six foot six

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Speaker 1: two and twenty eight pounds practically a tight end, so

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Speaker 1: he's typically used in packages you know, around the goal line,

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Speaker 1: or he'll be in there on hail Mary's. So his

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Speaker 1: role is to kind of get targets in the end zone.

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Speaker 1: So he has one touch on the air. It was

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Speaker 1: third and goal on the five guard line against the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys back in week ten. I watched that play a

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Speaker 1: few times. The play broke down, Wilson made a good

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Speaker 1: you know move to kind of alter his route to

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Speaker 1: get open, and Hurts found him for the five gyuard score. Right,

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Speaker 1: So last week he ran five routes, didn't draw a

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Speaker 1: single target on one of them. But I did notice

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Speaker 1: he was in there on third and goal on the

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Speaker 1: four yard line where Hurts through a four yard touchdown

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Speaker 1: AJ Brown. It was almost the same exact play from

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Speaker 1: week ten. You know, Johnny Wilson ran the same route.

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Speaker 1: If it broke down, who knows, Hurts might have found

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Speaker 1: him for another touchdown. So I think that's kind of

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Speaker 1: the package he's going to be out there. Is like

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Speaker 1: third and goal to go, where it's an obvious passing play,

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Speaker 1: he's going to be out there. Again, he's just a

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Speaker 1: big body where they might scheme plays for him to be,

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Speaker 1: you know, in the end zone.

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Speaker 3: So it's the super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: If there was ever a time for you know, a

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Speaker 1: player like Wilson to kind of get a play schemed

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Speaker 1: up and'd be here. But I think, just given he

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Speaker 1: has one touchdown sixteen games this year, thirty to one

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Speaker 1: is already kind of long odds for him. But when

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Speaker 1: you consider the type of routes he's running, the type

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Speaker 1: of targets he gets, the very few he gets, he's

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Speaker 1: going to have a high, high percentage of targets receptions

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Speaker 1: for touchdowns in his career. So he's the type player

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Speaker 1: I think if there's anybody that's going to be sort

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Speaker 1: of the troll touchdown for the Eagles, Johnny Wilson's a

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Speaker 1: pretty good bet to be one. So give me Wilson

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Speaker 1: at thirty to one here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think you know, just look at Steve

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Speaker 2: Spagnola and you know how he kind of schemes up

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Speaker 2: defense and he makes you go to your you know,

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Speaker 2: third option, your fourth option, and we know Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily go through those progressions like that, but you're right,

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Speaker 2: they could just scheme something up where they just try

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Speaker 2: to catch the Chiefs by surprise because they know they'll

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Speaker 2: probably you know, double or triple bracket Brown close.

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Speaker 3: To the goal line if the Eagles are in a

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Speaker 3: passing situation.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I like Wilson as well, and he should, yeah,

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Speaker 2: he should get a couple of snaps as that you know,

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Speaker 2: goal line kind of in that goal line kind of package.

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Speaker 2: And remember the first I think it was the first

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Speaker 2: or second throw of the postseason, Hurts through a touchdown

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Speaker 2: to Johan Dotson, who also is in that same boat,

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Speaker 2: just on the field.

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Speaker 3: Never really getting targeted. So yeah, like I like Wilson

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Speaker 3: as well.

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Speaker 2: I'm going with Devonte Smith here at you can find

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Speaker 2: him at plus two to fifty at bet MGM. I

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Speaker 2: think Devonte Smith is kind of being swept on. He's

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Speaker 2: only had I think he's had four of targets and

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Speaker 2: four catches in each of the playoff games. You know,

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Speaker 2: a little bit disappointing in terms of his production, but

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Speaker 2: still undervalued here. And if you just kind of look

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Speaker 2: back at a lot of the ways the Chiefs have

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Speaker 2: schemed against a team like this, what usually ends up

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Speaker 2: happening is they end up doubling the number one guy

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Speaker 2: like an AJ Brown, and they'll trust, you know, guy

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Speaker 2: like McDuffie, who is their number one corner can play

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Speaker 2: inside outside, They'll trust him and man coverage on the

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Speaker 2: number two, kind of like the old school Patriots did

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Speaker 2: back in the day. And even though I think the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs should play more zone than usual because that's what

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Speaker 2: hurts really struggles against. We know they're gonna play man,

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Speaker 2: we know they're gonna blitz, so you're gonna get someone

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Speaker 2: on ones here. I think for Davonte Smith, and he

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Speaker 2: did drop a touchdown how to touchdown potentially, I believe

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Speaker 2: it was in that championship game. So yeah, like Davonte

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Speaker 2: here at f plus to fifty, give him about a

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Speaker 2: thirty percent chance of scoring here.

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Speaker 3: Yet again, I think he's been undervalued all postseason. I'd

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Speaker 3: be honest.

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Speaker 2: Looking for weekly projections from me and Sean Kerner, the

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Speaker 2: only place you'll find them is at Fantasy lebs dot com.

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Speaker 2: You'll get our weekly player projections every week, plus access

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Speaker 2: to a suite of tools, including our lineup Optimizer and

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Speaker 2: our all new sim lebs lineup builder that uses the

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Speaker 2: power of simulations paired with our award winning projections to

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Speaker 2: off your first month of Fantasy Labs DFS. We've dropped

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Speaker 2: the link in this episode's description. Just remember to use

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Speaker 2: code flex forty at checkout. All right, let's jump to

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Speaker 2: the Kansas City Chiefs side, and.

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Speaker 3: I like this guy.

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Speaker 2: Definitely thought about a Hamshaw who you got here for

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs on your long chot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going with Nico Romijo. He's forty six to

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Speaker 1: one right now, and of course he's the Chiefs return man.

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Speaker 1: And you know, the new kickoff rules this year definitely

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Speaker 1: encourage more returns. So there were seven kickoff return touchdowns

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Speaker 1: this season compared to just four last year. So I

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Speaker 1: looked about, you know, five percent of the games this

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Speaker 1: year had either a punt or kickoff return for a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: So your average team would be around you know, forty

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Speaker 1: to one odds to score. You know, either a punt

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Speaker 1: or kickoff return touchdown, and he returns both for the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: It's not like they split it up or someone's returning punt,

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Speaker 1: someone else's returning kicks.

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Speaker 3: He returns it all.

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Speaker 1: And while he didn't score a touch on this year,

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Speaker 1: he really wasn't their return man until Week fourteen after

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Speaker 1: Miquel Hartman went down, and he's kept the job ever since.

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Speaker 1: So he's only been returning kicks for seven games, but

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Speaker 1: you know, he's been above Leege average in both, you know,

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Speaker 1: kickoff returns and punt returns, so he's going to be

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Speaker 1: more likely than your average return man to score. So again,

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Speaker 1: we're kind of dealing with forty to one odds to start,

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Speaker 1: and I think he's better than leegue average, so I

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Speaker 1: think he should be lower than forty to one.

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Speaker 3: Plus.

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Speaker 1: You know, the Eagles they've allowed the sixth highest yards

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Speaker 1: per kickoff return, so that that should boost them a

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Speaker 1: little bit. They're around league average for punts. Trust me,

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Speaker 1: I've done a lot of punting analysis. They're about league

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Speaker 1: average when it comes to punt returns. But yeah, so

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Speaker 1: again I think that increases his odds a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think he's going to play a snap

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Speaker 1: on offense. He played practically the entire week eighteen when

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Speaker 1: they rested starters, he got two balls for forty eight yards.

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Speaker 1: So if there was a game where you know, Andy

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Speaker 1: Reid might get creative and use him on to play

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Speaker 1: like the Cavante Turpin type of option, this would be it.

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Speaker 1: I'm not expecting it, but if he does get any

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Speaker 1: offensive snaps, I think it's just going to make his

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Speaker 1: odds even more likely to potentially score. So love him

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Speaker 1: at forty six to one. Like I said, anybody that's

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Speaker 1: just getting all the returns, I think by default should

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Speaker 1: be around forty to one, and he's above average. So

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Speaker 1: give me him at forty six to.

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Speaker 2: One, and you also get the Travis Kelce boost because

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you heard in the in the

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Speaker 2: first postseason game against Houston, Remihio Fair caught the first

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Speaker 2: punt and he said Travis Kelce came up to him

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Speaker 2: on the sideline, who was just like lighting into it,

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Speaker 2: like you're not being great by Fair catching his punts,

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Speaker 2: And so after that he would return in all the

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Speaker 2: trying to get a score. So I don't think you

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Speaker 2: want to upset Travis Kelce right again. So yeah, rom

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Speaker 2: me heo, and it's possible he gets a snap. I

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Speaker 2: mean I've seen like we you know, last year, remember

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Speaker 2: going into the Super Bowl, they had kind of consolidated

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Speaker 2: and we didn't even know if, like guys like Hardman

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Speaker 2: would get snaps last year, and they ended.

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Speaker 3: Up being a pivotal point in the game, pivotal player

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Speaker 3: in the game.

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Speaker 2: And I remember the Eagle Super Bowl against the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: the year before where I think I think it was

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Speaker 2: Canarious Tony in the doghouse and he ended up getting

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Speaker 2: a touchdown schemed up for him.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, you never know. So I like that. I

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Speaker 3: actually have romb here for like zero point one routes

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Speaker 3: run projected, So I'll take it.

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Speaker 1: I'll take it.

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Speaker 3: I got a couple of guys here.

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Speaker 2: First is the show favorite, and I know a guy

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Speaker 2: that you really like as well, Sewn Xavier Worthy at

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Speaker 2: plus one sixty five. And I also like a little

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Speaker 2: sprinkle on plus twelve hundred first touchdown as well, because

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Speaker 2: Xavier Worthy, I think his eyes have just been too

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Speaker 2: short all postseason, because first of all, he's getting at

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Speaker 2: least one, sometimes multiple rush attempts, and those do increase

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Speaker 2: his touchdown adds quite a bit. He's really fast, obviously,

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Speaker 2: and he usually is getting those carries, you know, in

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Speaker 2: scoring position, you know, so all three of his rushing

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Speaker 2: touchdowns twenty one yards are in this season, so litt'll

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Speaker 2: extra juice there. But he's really been the kind of

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Speaker 2: the go to guy, the guy that they scheme the

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Speaker 2: ball to every game, even more so than Travis Kelce

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Speaker 2: because he can move around, he's got speed. So I

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Speaker 2: think they're going to continue to do that. With this

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Speaker 2: really tough defense, it's hard to get a good matchup.

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Speaker 2: Worthy is your best bet to kind of dictate your matchup,

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Speaker 2: whether you want it on on Sleigh or you want

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Speaker 2: it on Degene, or you want to try to get

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Speaker 2: deep on a safety, whatever it is. Worthy is a

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Speaker 2: guy that can move around and do it.

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Speaker 3: So I love him.

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Speaker 2: And I think, you know, because he also gets those

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Speaker 2: carries and you mentioned, you know, usually get early in

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Speaker 2: the game. I think first touchdown is also in play

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Speaker 2: for Worthy. Any of the thoughts on Worthy, I know

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Speaker 2: you love him.

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Speaker 1: I mean I was obviously going to take him back.

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Speaker 1: We're kind of jointly giving him out. I don't mind

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Speaker 1: that you got him before me. But yeah, I'm projecting

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Speaker 1: him once again like around like plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: So it's just crazy that we're still getting value on

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Speaker 1: like their most likely pass cutcher to score other than

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Speaker 1: Travis Kelce. But I think that's another point with his projection,

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Speaker 1: is he's going to get one to two design rush

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Speaker 1: a temps sometimes right around the goal line, so they're

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Speaker 1: looking ways to give him the ball. He's obviously very explosive.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, he's he's obviously showing once again the most

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Speaker 1: value for anytime touchdowns just with my projections, he's plus

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Speaker 1: plus one twenty five fair odds for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I got him my plus one sixteen and oh

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Speaker 3: you know it's I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I won't say it's super predictive, but we do have

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Speaker 2: an eight game sample size of Mahomes going up against

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Speaker 2: Fangiod and what we've seen is tight ends tend to

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Speaker 2: catch up more passes than usual for the Chiefs inside

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Speaker 2: the twenties, but once they get around the goal line,

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Speaker 2: the tight ends actually catch less than expected, like in

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Speaker 2: terms of touchdowns, and that's probably because of the Kelsey effect,

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Speaker 2: where uh, you know they're they're they're really doubling him

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Speaker 2: and making sure he doesn't score. So I do think,

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Speaker 2: you know, even though it's a tough matchup for the

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Speaker 2: chief slide receivers, overall touchdown market is kind of where

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Speaker 2: you want to target them. And that's why this next guy,

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Speaker 2: I don't really know what to do with this guy.

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Speaker 2: So I'm actually interested just to hear your overall projections

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Speaker 2: on him, because I think you're I think you're even

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Speaker 2: a little higher than I am on him. But DeAndre Hopkins,

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Speaker 2: I like them at six to one on fandle to

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Speaker 2: score and you know, I haven't projected to catch you know,

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Speaker 2: one and a half two passes here in this game.

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Speaker 2: I know it's a really tough matchup, but I feel

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Speaker 2: like the market has just been kind of coming down

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Speaker 2: and down on him, and like his longest catch is

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Speaker 2: like eight and a half too now, which.

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Speaker 3: Is pretty nuts.

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Speaker 2: So I like him because I think he where he's

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Speaker 2: going to get snaps or guaranteed to get some snaps

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Speaker 2: is in the red zone. You know they're playing they

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Speaker 2: have brown now, so he's not necessarily getting all the

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Speaker 2: starter snaps. He might be down like playing a third

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Speaker 2: of the snaps Hopkins, But any thoughts on him with

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Speaker 2: the tough matchup here, is the market like too low

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Speaker 2: on him?

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Speaker 3: Or what do you see here?

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Speaker 1: No, that's that's a great point. And I mean we've

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Speaker 1: been kind of bagging on him for the past few weeks.

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Speaker 1: Now he's now behind Juju Smith Schuster in the pecking order.

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Speaker 1: He's he's the chief number four wide receiver right now.

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Speaker 1: I could say that with full confidence. But yeah, Like

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Speaker 1: it's like the market's smart, so it's it's low on him.

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Speaker 1: And I'm like, you know what, they're probably right, So

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Speaker 1: I scaled everything down. I got I got Hopkins projection

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Speaker 1: the lowest I could possibly be and comfortable with it.

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Speaker 1: And if you look at my prop calculator, I'm showing,

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Speaker 1: you know, a ton of value on his overs. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: and I just I'm telling you when I came up

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Speaker 1: with this projection, I'm I'm trying to be as conservative

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Speaker 1: and pessimistic as I should, and I'm still showing value.

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Speaker 1: So I think I agree, it's like the market has

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Speaker 1: just kind of gone too low on him.

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Speaker 3: So he's too good.

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Speaker 1: I think just one catch he clears, you know, his

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Speaker 1: yard prop, his longest reception prop is too low. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if he'll get two catches, But yeah, I'm

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Speaker 1: definitely looking at his yards market being a bit too

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Speaker 1: low now, down around eleven and a half here, and agree,

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Speaker 1: I think his his touchdown odds are offering value too,

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Speaker 1: Like six to one is pretty crazy because that's kind

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Speaker 1: of where they would want to use him, I would think.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I agree that the market's low on him,

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Speaker 1: as it should be, but I think it's I think

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Speaker 1: it's a little bit too low right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And if you just look at the formation splits,

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Speaker 2: he tends to line up on the same side that

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Speaker 2: Darius Slay would line up on and the Eagles aren't

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Speaker 2: traveling corners.

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Speaker 3: They haven't done it really all year. So Sway has

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Speaker 3: been the guy.

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Speaker 2: If we targeted the boat out of any Eagles player

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Speaker 2: on defense this entire postseason.

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Speaker 3: So, uh, that still is a matchup.

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Speaker 2: I think you know, if you get in and you

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Speaker 2: getting around the red zone, that Mahomes wouldn't hesitate to

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Speaker 2: attack one on one with a guy like DeAndre Hopkins.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think he's he's just been way way

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Speaker 2: too undervalued here. It's gonna be ugly. It is a

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Speaker 2: tough matchup, hears old, but you know, uh, he got

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Speaker 2: there's what.

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Speaker 1: Are we calling old now? Is he went thirty four?

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Speaker 2: He's old enough to fall to the number four receiver

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Speaker 2: behind like twenty eight year old Juju. Yeah exactly, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, he's been traded for pennies. That's that's

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Speaker 2: once you get that. When she start getting traded for pennies,

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Speaker 2: you're probably pretty old. But yeah, I think I think

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Speaker 2: you can still play. Like I went back and watched

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Speaker 2: for example, I was, I watched every Amari Cooper route,

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Speaker 2: you know, going into last week, and then I watched

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Speaker 2: every Hopkins route. I actually think Hopkins looks better than Cooper,

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Speaker 2: who just was like completely involved. So hopefully they do

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Speaker 2: go to him here, but I think they will because

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Speaker 2: the red zone has been a tough spot for Mahomes

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Speaker 2: against these Fangio defenses. And like I said, I think

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Speaker 2: they I think they're gonna play a lot of attention

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Speaker 2: to uh to Kelsey and forced the ball elsewhere. All right,

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Speaker 2: So we'll give out our We'll pick one guy each

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Speaker 2: for our parway. Why don't you go first, Sean?

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Speaker 1: So I gave up those ridiculous long shots. I'll be

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Speaker 1: more practical here and I'll go with our joint pick

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Speaker 1: Xavier Worthy here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, love Worthy, he's been he's been undervalued every week,

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Speaker 2: barely missed in the first game into Houston, got in

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Speaker 2: against Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: Love him.

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Speaker 3: And I'll go with Davante Smith.

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Speaker 2: I think he's been another guy kind of right there

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Speaker 2: on the precipice of blowing up, and I think this

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Speaker 2: is a spot where he might get even more one

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Speaker 2: on ones than usual.

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Speaker 3: So we'll go with a xaver Worthy and DeVante Smith.

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Speaker 2: That is a plus seven to fifty over at DraftKings

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Speaker 2: if you want to parway those two touchdown guys. So again,

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Speaker 2: if you want the bets we've discussed today, you can

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Speaker 2: look at the quick flip app links excuse me, the

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Speaker 2: quick slip links in the episode description. You just quick

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Speaker 2: and it'll take you to the page on action where

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Speaker 2: you can instantly tail any.

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Speaker 3: Of the bets we've talked about.

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Speaker 2: And you can you can go on Parway Express in

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Speaker 2: the Action app and see all of these long shots

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Speaker 2: and other partways that our experts are betting, So be

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Speaker 2: sure to check that out.

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Speaker 3: You can find Sean on x at the Underscarage Maker.

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Speaker 3: How about Chris Raybon. You can find us at those

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Speaker 3: same handles on.

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Speaker 2: The free or winning Action Network app can do at

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Speaker 2: a Super Bowl, We'll.

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Speaker 1: Get this money.

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Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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