WEBVTT - The Final Countdown: Biden's Last Push Before Glasgow 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.080 Hey everyone, it's a busy week in the world of 0:00:02.080 --> 0:00:04.720 politics and climate. In the US. It's crunch time for 0:00:04.760 --> 0:00:06.800 the Infrastructure Bill and we should know by the weekend 0:00:06.880 --> 0:00:08.520 what of it will make it through and become law. 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:12.360 And on Sunday of October, the COP twenty six climate 0:00:12.400 --> 0:00:15.880 negotiations in Glasgow officially kick off, where representative from nations 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:17.720 across the world will gather to take stock of where 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:20.960 we're at with regard to the Paris Agreement and attempt 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:24.000 to map a path forward. Now the tide that binds well, 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:27.320 there's a lot of clean energy and climate related legislation 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:30.360 in the US Infrastructure Bill. Whether and what passes this 0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:32.320 week and will impact a position from which the U 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:35.120 s can approach the global climate negotiations as a leader 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:38.800 or well not. From BENEF We've got Ethan Zindler, head 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:41.839 of America's and Vicky Comming, head of Global Policy, on 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:43.920 the show to tell us about what's going on, what 0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:46.040 to watch for, and their predictions of what they think 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:48.440 will happen. This episode is based on our ongoing coverage 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:50.920 of US and global policy being if. Users can find 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.920 this content on BENEF dot com, BENEF Mobile and of 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.360 course on the terminal and for everyone listening, will also 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:58.280 be doing a public blog these next two weeks that 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:01.880 will follow along with the eatings and provide commentary. You 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:04.480 can find that at bloomberg dot com Forward Slash Professional, 0:01:04.560 --> 0:01:08.560 Forward Slash Blog. As always be desprovide investment or strategy 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:10.880 device and you guessed it. The full disclaimer at the 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:13.280 end of the show him Mark Taylor here with Dana Perkins, 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:24.160 and you're listening to switch on the BENF podcast. Ethan, Vicky, welcome, 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:27.280 Thank you. Okay, so we're gonna kind of do this 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:30.600 in two parts today talk about the US infrastructure bills, 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:34.039 what's going on there, and then tie that into what's 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:36.920 going on in COP twenty six. But let's start off 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.039 really basic, as we always do, and just talk about 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:43.199 the infrastructure bills. So, Ethan, you and I were talking 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:46.360 before and I said, generally, you know the Infratructure bill, 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:48.200 and you said, actually, it's a bit more complex than 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:50.640 just that. I think out in the in the wide world, 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:52.360 we call it that, but I think there's a bit 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:54.240 more to it. Can you explain kind of the differences 0:01:54.280 --> 0:01:56.680 you're mentioning a bit ago. Yeah, So there are two 0:01:56.920 --> 0:02:00.560 major pieces of legislation before Congress right now, neither of 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:05.280 which have gotten final passage. One is the Infrastructure bill 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:08.639 that passed the Senate that has not passed the House. 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:12.840 The other is a so called reconciliation bill, and that 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:16.720 one has not passed either chamber so far. And basically, 0:02:17.120 --> 0:02:19.760 if you put the two together, you're talking about several 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.760 trillion dollars potentially worth of support for US infrastructure in 0:02:23.760 --> 0:02:27.200 the most literal sense, roads and bridges and clean energy, 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:30.279 but also a lot of social programs that are potentially 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:36.120 in both bills, which one has the things that benf 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:40.160 would write most about. Actually both both have a lot. 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:44.160 The infrastructure bill that passed the Senate has some real 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:49.440 support for electric vehicles and charging, but the Reconciliation bill, 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:53.760 the larger and arguably good deal more controversial. One has 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:58.079 long term extensions for tax credits for wind and solar included. 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:01.360 It has tax credits for electric via goals included. It 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:05.800 also has a potential something akin to a national clean 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:09.240 Energy standard included in it. But all of that was 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:11.840 what was in the original legislation a couple of months 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:15.200 ago written by the House. It is being whittled down 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:18.480 as we speak, and a slimmer version of that bill 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:22.520 is ultimately what we'll get past if it gets past. Oh, okay, 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:25.960 slimmer version, if it gets past, before we get into 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:29.079 the mechanics of, you know, whether or not it will 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.359 pass all that stuff. Can you just describe to us 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:33.800 just maybe a couple of the programs that you're excited 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:36.200 about or interested in in either of the one of these. 0:03:36.640 --> 0:03:39.640 The legislation contains a lot of things, but most importantly, 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:42.600 I would argue for the wind and solar sector, it 0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:47.080 contains long term tenuere extensions of tax credits, and those 0:03:47.120 --> 0:03:51.720 tax credits have historically really been the most important subsidy 0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:55.440 in the United States to support growth of clean energy. 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:58.280 So that's probably number one on the list. Number two 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:01.760 on the list is a National Clean Energy Program that 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:06.720 is aimed at essentially being a national renewable energy standard. 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:09.280 That part of the bill almost certainly looks like it's 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:11.520 not going to make the final cut at this point. 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:14.880 The bill also has support for carbon capture and storage 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:18.480 technology in the form of tax credits, for electric vehicles 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:20.360 in the form of tax credits. It's got a lot 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:23.559 of different goodies for a lot of different subsectors within 0:04:23.680 --> 0:04:27.240 the clean energy world. You mentioned that it's now slimmer, 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.720 and I think my question before you get into any 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:34.400 more specifics on that, is slimmer a bad thing? Because 0:04:34.600 --> 0:04:36.920 when I hear slimmer, I hear the opposite of throwing 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:40.160 in irrelevant things, you know, which sometimes do get thrown 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:42.400 into bills, which maybe are just kind of making their 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:44.480 way along as a part of the bartering process in 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:47.479 order to get something past. But something that slimmer in 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:50.880 theory could be a starting point, maybe not the final endgame, 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.360 but a starting point for a bigger conversation. Is that 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:56.880 the case or is a slimmer version something that really 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:59.600 kills any hope for anything that is wider and maybe, 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:03.600 as we've discussed COP twenty six more internationally relevant. When 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:07.000 I say slimmer, primarily what I'm talking about is reducing 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:10.240 some of the social program benefits that were in the 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:13.120 original bill. But also, most importantly, as far as the 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:17.720 clean energy sector is concerned, grapping this potential national clean 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:22.200 Energy standard program. There's been plenty of debate, I would say, 0:05:22.200 --> 0:05:25.320 within the US clean energy policy community about whether that's 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:27.920 a big deal. My personal view is it's not as 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:29.760 big a deal as people are making it out to 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.960 be given that the tax credits have always historically done 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:37.080 what have boosted build of renewables, So you know, that's 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:40.440 probably what the slimming means as far as clean energy 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:43.000 is concerned. So it sounds like the slimming is kind 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.520 of keeping the carrot getting rid of the stick. But 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:48.480 they also sound like really familiar kind of old tunes. 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:51.320 We've heard of the tax credit before for the wind 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.680 and solar. We've heard of the carbon capture and stories 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:56.920 tax credit as well. What is that forty Q right? 0:05:57.320 --> 0:05:59.839 We've heard of tax and centers for buying electric vehicles. 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:03.680 Guess my interest is is there anything for say, EV 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:06.560 charging electric vehicle charging? I saw an announcement this morning 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:08.600 from what was it Hurts that said they're going to 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.479 buy a hundred thousand testla's Like it sounds to me 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:14.520 like an e V charging infrastructure could help things like 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:17.200 that and others. Is there any new programs in there? Yes, 0:06:17.240 --> 0:06:21.039 there is, Actually there's a tax credit potentially for electric 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:24.680 vehicle charging infrastructure. I actually believe that's in the Infrastructure bill, 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:28.040 the one that passed the Senate already. There is a 0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:31.400 so called manufacturers tax credit. It would give you basically 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:36.400 a thirty capex discount on building a new manufacturing facility. 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:40.200 And this is explicitly and specifically aimed at trying to 0:06:40.320 --> 0:06:44.240 grow the US supply chain for strategic things like batteries 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:48.000 and battery materials and other things like that. Sounds timely, Yeah, 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:49.960 up and down the up and down the value chain 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:53.800 down to consumers, but also up to manufacturing and production. 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:57.320 There's a lot of important stuff in the bill. One 0:06:57.360 --> 0:06:58.960 other note I would just say about, you know, as 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:00.840 you're here, I'm hearing you and me saying tax credit 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:04.760 tax ra tax credit. Tax credits have become essentially by default, 0:07:04.760 --> 0:07:07.920 the system by which we support all kinds of things 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:10.960 in the US, all kinds of social programs, everything, and 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:13.560 tax credits, I mean to be clear, as a policy 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:18.440 mechanism are terrible. They are inexact, They can be complicated 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.520 to take advantage of. You don't really know how much 0:07:21.520 --> 0:07:23.080 you're going to get out of them unless you put 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:24.920 some kind of cap on them. And the only one 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.840 that's ever been capped has been around electric vehicles, at 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:31.200 least within the clean energy sector. So they're very inexact, 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.280 and it's very hard to know when they're not exactly needed, 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:37.040 and this is why policy people really like things like 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:40.160 clean energy standards, and they really like carbon prices and 0:07:40.280 --> 0:07:43.880 carbon markets. The reality of it is, tax credits politically 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:46.160 have worked in the US in the past. They look 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:48.800 like politically they might work again this time, and so 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:50.920 that's probably what we're gonna end up with. It's gonna 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.680 say tax credits sound very American, Well, yeah, I was 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:56.000 gonna say that. I think it's one of the few 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:58.720 places in the world where tax credits have played a 0:07:58.720 --> 0:08:01.680 big role in the clean energy deployment, and the rest 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:03.600 of the world it's been historically more of a story 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:07.720 of feeding tariffs and auctions, at least for renewables. Lastly, 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:10.240 i'll say tax credits is they actually they suck as 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:14.880 a policy mechan maybe one. They are only used in 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:18.120 the US. They're really they're just dumb. But they are 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:21.040 are dumb thing, and they are what we're used to 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:23.720 over here. They have the potential, let's be clear, to 0:08:23.840 --> 0:08:28.440 potentially over subsidize things because they're not calibrated in any 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:31.840 kind of way. But they work and they are a 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.640 lot simpler, frankly than a national clean energy program, which 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:38.160 is what's being proposed you know, to come along with this, 0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:39.880 and if you had to pick one or the other, 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:42.440 I think most people in the industry would say, we 0:08:42.480 --> 0:08:45.600 will take a long term extension of the tax credits 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:49.760 over a new bureaucracy that mandates certain amounts of clean 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:52.520 energy consumption. Yeah, I mean, Vicky, what's your opinion on 0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:54.480 the flip side of that. So Ethan is not a 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:56.760 big fan of tax credits, is it working that much 0:08:56.800 --> 0:08:58.800 better in the rest of the world, Well, ensure, I 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:04.840 would say yes, Okay, I would certainly say that renewables 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:09.920 auctions have proved particularly successful at deploying large volumes of 0:09:10.080 --> 0:09:13.760 would say wind and solar at costs that kind of 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:18.800 more accurately reflect the underlying technology costs. So we've seen 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:22.160 auction tariffs have tended to go down with but they 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:25.520 don't always. For example, if there's like an delay on 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:29.880 permitting or some kind of really heavy a local content requirements, 0:09:29.920 --> 0:09:34.360 then they might not necessarily go down, but certainly they 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:38.240 do help the government also kind of keeper a tighter 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.720 rein on their outlay in terms of expenditure as well, 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:45.160 certainly compared with beaming tariffs. I was just going to 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.040 say that the text credits are an ugly beast, but 0:09:48.120 --> 0:09:52.000 they are our beast, and they're the beasts that everybody knows, 0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:56.640 and that's why ultimately they seem to be politically possible. 0:09:56.640 --> 0:09:58.920 And the last thing, without getting too much into the politics, 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:02.280 is that the reason why I think, and we'll see 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:04.400 how this plays out, but I think that they'll get 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:08.160 through is because the most important person in all these discussion, 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.920 Senator Joe Mansion, who represents the state of West Virginia, 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:16.600 seems to be open to policies that support renewable energy 0:10:16.760 --> 0:10:21.280 that's tax credits, but opposed to policies that presumably would 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:27.120 you know, explicitly limit the role that coal and fossil 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:30.600 fuels play, never mind the sort of inconsistent thinking around 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:34.720 that logic. But policies that appear to be, you know, 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:39.120 specifically hurting fossils he doesn't like. But policies that go 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:43.400 to support renewable specifically he's been open to. And I 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:45.520 think that's why this will probably make it through. Can 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:48.480 you explain to everybody listening, who is not a U 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:51.560 S policy buff, why Joe Mansion is significant and what 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:55.319 he represents in this discussion. So people have jokingly referred 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:58.880 to him as Prime Minister Mansion or co President Mansion. 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:03.760 The issue is that the Democrats have fifty elected members 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:06.719 of the United States Senate and the only reason effectively 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:09.839 they have a so called majority is because they can 0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:13.280 cast the fifty first vote with the sitting Vice President 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:18.520 Kamala Harris. That means that every single Democrat must vote 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:21.320 for any piece of legislation to get through the Senate. 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:25.840 And Joe Manchin is pretty much the most conservative member 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:29.320 of the Democratic Caucus, along with one other Senator, Kirsten 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:32.600 Cinema from Arizona, but he's probably a slightly more hope 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:35.280 high profile. But the bottom line is you actually need 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.400 to get all fifty senators on board. It's just that 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:40.920 he's been the most challenging because a big chunk of 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:44.880 the rest of the caucus is considerably to the left 0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:47.840 of him. Can I ask this might be a dumb question, 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:53.760 but apart from not wanting any democratic legislation through, what 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:58.920 do Republicans oppose in these bills? Is there anything policy 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:01.280 oriented that they actual the opposed or is it strictly 0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:03.920 political Because you have Joe Manson, you have Cinema, but 0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:05.640 you have fifty other people that could vote for this. 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:08.360 It's a great question. I mean, the first thing to 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:13.000 note is in fairness to Republicans, the infrastructure bill, which 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:17.000 is the first bill passed I think with six votes 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.440 through the Senate, like a lot of Republicans got on 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:24.000 board to support that, it had bipartisan support. That bill 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:27.800 is pretty narrowly focused on Rhodes bridges. It has some 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:30.920 e V support, but it's kind of a pretty conventional 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.800 infrastructure bill. Republicans make the argument that the other bill 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:39.160 goes way beyond the bounds of what the definition of 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:43.280 infrastructure should be to focus on social policy. They also 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:47.160 seem to have found religion on the question of caring 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:52.040 about the deficit and debt. And again, uh yeah, I 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:55.920 say that ironically or sarcastically, because it does seem like 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.880 whichever party controls the reins is usually typically willing to 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.559 spend a lot of money and and deficits have run 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.960 up a big time under Republican presidents and Republican congresses 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:07.920 in the past. So I think, you know, now suddenly 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:11.359 they're finding a certain amount trying to find some fiscal discipline, 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:14.320 and that's the argument that's being made to oppose this 0:13:14.360 --> 0:13:17.280 bill as well. Can you discuss the longevity of these bills, 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:19.480 because I think as we get into this conversation around 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:24.200 copy and we're looking ahead, not just to that magical 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:26.880 year that we're all kind of very much looking forward 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:30.320 to when we're making policy decisions. A lot of discussion 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:32.320 around the US over the last few years has been 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.320 around executive orders and how easy they are to rip out. 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:37.640 So now we're at a place where there are things 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:40.120 going through the Senate, going through the House. How long 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:43.720 will these bills in theory be applicable. That's a really 0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:47.720 good question. So there's the term of the bills, you know, 0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:49.880 in terms of the length of the legislation that have 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.480 different programs. Many of the key programs are looking at 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:55.880 a tenure horizon in terms of how long they would 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.840 be on the books. So that's what the legislation says. 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:02.319 But as you rightly point out, there's the politics here. 0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:05.920 So the reality of it is that if the Democrats 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:12.080 lose one or both chambers of Congress in two bye, 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:16.560 a Republican Congress could try to undo this through other 0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:19.440 legislative action. The good news, I guess for those who 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:22.200 support this bill is that Biden will still be president 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:26.520 through the end of four into the very start, So 0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:29.320 basically you would not be able to undo anything that 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:34.640 this Congress passes any earlier then, and even in that circumstance, 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.080 you would have to have basically a Republican president and 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:41.320 probably Republican control of the House and the Senate. But 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:44.280 all this speaks to why Democrats are so anxious to 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:47.600 get getting something done now, because this really may be 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:50.360 the last chance to try and pass something like this. 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:53.240 The elections next year do not look good for Democrats 0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:55.400 at the moment, You've got a full moon now, basically 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:59.280 a Democratic president, two chambers of Congress controlled by Democrats, 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.040 and they feel like this is the moment that they've 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:02.800 got to move And I would agree with that because 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:05.000 I think you don't know what's going to happen in 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:07.760 the future, and especially as we think about climate there 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:10.000 really is no time to waste when it comes to 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:12.640 dealing with these issues. Okay, so let's let's talk about 0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:15.120 what we think is going to happen. Here. There's a 0:15:15.160 --> 0:15:18.400 deadline on all this, right, it's it's coming up. Yeah, 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:20.920 the end of the month October thirty one has been 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.400 said as the informal deadline by the Speaker of the 0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:26.320 House Nancy Pelosi when she says that she will bring 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:28.520 both bills up for a vote on the floor of 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:32.440 the House. That also, not coincidentally, happens to be really 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:35.760 the eve of when the cop climate talks kick off 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:38.280 in Glasgow. I maybe off by a day, I think 0:15:38.320 --> 0:15:42.800 you can correct me, but that's basically exactly that moment. Yeah, 0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:46.480 the official opening ceremony, Yes, the thirty first of October. 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:48.920 I mean, with the time difference, it might even be 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:53.480 pretty like you're within minutes. So it's not coincidental. And 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:56.320 you know, the administration, I think that by an administration 0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:59.440 is keenly aware of that. Privately last week, Biden said 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.240 to a bunch of members of Congress basically said, look, 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.920 if you don't pass this bill, I'm showing up to Glasgow, 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.320 you know, pretty empty handed. That's what he said privately. 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:09.680 Then publicly the White House was like, no, no, no, no, 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:11.880 We've actually all got all this other great stuff that 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:14.680 we've done. We've written these regulations or whatever. But like 0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:17.480 that is uh. As I've said to Vicky in the past, 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:19.800 that's like put lipstick on a pig. They've done some 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.840 great stuff. There's no question about that. And writing regulations. 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.480 But you cannot show up a cop and honestly say 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.160 that the US has on its books any kind of 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:31.800 long term commitment to really address these issues unless Congress 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:35.160 passes something. So the pressure is really there. Now. Will 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:37.440 they do something by the end of this week? I 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:40.840 think so, But gosh, it's really really hard to predict. 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:44.000 Over the weekend. Nancy Pelosi said basically, oh yeah, well, 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:45.840 we've almost got a deal, and then this morning it 0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:48.840 doesn't look so great to me. The person that I 0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.240 think is that is most perplexing and worrisome to everybody 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:56.400 is Senator Christian Cinema from Arizona, who, while Mansion has 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:57.920 been out there and I think we kind of know 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:01.000 what it is he wants and doesn't like, she's totally 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.840 enigma to most people at this point. She seems to 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.680 like clean energy tax credits, that's what the reporting has been, 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:09.560 but she also really seems to like to be a gadfly, 0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:11.680 and I have this fear that she's going to blow 0:17:11.720 --> 0:17:13.440 the whole thing up at the end of the day. 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:16.160 But all things being even, I think they will get 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:18.240 something done by the end of this weekend. One last factor, 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:21.520 which people don't talk about is Halloween is on October 0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:24.439 thirty one, and I'm telling you that is like a 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.040 sacred holiday here in the United States. That's when every 0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:30.280 kid goes out and goes trick or treating. Washington Bureau 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:33.760 of Bloomberg by like three thirty PM is usually pretty quiet. 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:35.920 All the parents have run home to like get the 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.440 kids set up. No parent in Congress is gonna want 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:42.639 to be fiddling with this on October thirty one. I 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.000 think that that is the sort of that's the sleeper 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.760 pressure here to get this done. That it's also Sunday 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:56.359 ethan y, so even more you know incentive. So full moon, Halloween, Yeah, 0:17:57.240 --> 0:18:00.360 coming call, coming together, cop, It's all coming together. Wait, 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:04.480 so hang on. The infrastructure bill has already passed the 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.879 Senate and the House, right, and it has not passed 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:12.439 the House. Okay, so so we're likely to get at 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:14.720 least one of two. Is that right? No? I mean, 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:18.399 that's the issue here is that basically the votes are 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:21.040 there to pass the infrastructure bill basically more or less 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.720 on its own. But liberals in the House are saying, hey, 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:26.480 wait a second, We're not voting for this bill unless 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:29.800 we get to also vote on this reconciliation bill and 0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:32.560 we also get to actually pass it. They're saying we're 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:34.960 not We're not in on your infrastructure bill unless you're 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:38.440 in on this reconciliation bill. And they make the argument 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:41.000 that if you don't do both at once, that you'll 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:43.200 never come back on the issues that are raised in 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:45.359 the reconciliation bill. And I think they raise a fair 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:48.720 point because I think Joe Manchin doesn't necessarily really want 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:51.119 to come back on any of that stuff. He's pushing 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.479 to just pass the infrastructure bill on its own and 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:56.760 be done with it. But Liberals are saying, we're not 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:59.480 coming along unless you give us something in return, which 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:02.680 is the reckon Cliation Bill. Ethan a quick walk down 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:05.040 memory lane before we segue over to cop. One of 0:19:05.119 --> 0:19:07.879 my earliest memories in any f when when we were 0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:10.760 a startup, before we were part of Bloomberg, was sitting 0:19:10.800 --> 0:19:14.399 in our office where Ethan nat Buller and I shared 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:16.960 shared in office and we shared a YouTube video in 0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:21.399 two thousand nine of Joe Manson shooting the Cap and 0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:25.520 Trade bill with a gun signifying his u his stance 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.479 on the whole issue. Remember that I do remember he 0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:31.520 ran for re election by making an advertisement in which 0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:34.560 he took the waxman marquee Bill, pinned it to a 0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:38.240 tree and shot it with a rifle. Yeah, and it worked. 0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:42.040 He got re elected. Mansion knows his constituency. I mean, 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:45.160 it's a conservative part of the country, and the history 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:48.000 and heritage of West Virginia is coal mining, and it's 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:50.359 one of the poorer states in the country. And coal 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:53.480 mining has been hit badly in the US. But you know, 0:19:53.600 --> 0:19:56.439 I still don't think that necessarily justifies his position. But 0:19:56.520 --> 0:20:00.359 let's remember these members of Congress represent individual parts of 0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.879 the United States, and this is why he is who 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:06.320 he is in terms of his position sometimes. Okay, So 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:09.600 this weekend, it all, it all kind of comes down 0:20:09.600 --> 0:20:11.480 to it. We're gonna take a quick break and when 0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:14.280 we come back, we're going to talk about the impacts 0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:17.000 of the US giving the A or NAY and what 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:35.520 it means for the climate talks in Glasgow. Stay with us, Okay, 0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:37.879 welcome back. We're going to change gears just a little 0:20:37.880 --> 0:20:41.159 bit and talk about the global stage upcoming starting on 0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:45.800 oct one and running to what November is the COP 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:50.440 twenty six negotiations in Glasgow, Scotland. So for the uninitiated. 0:20:50.440 --> 0:20:53.119 I'm sure you've heard about it on the news, but Vicky, 0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:54.920 can you start us off and just tell us what 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:59.040 this is? What are these negotiations? COPPS sounds for Conference 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:03.879 of the Party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.760 So all of the governments that signed up to the 0:21:08.400 --> 0:21:11.960 U n F Triple C will come to Glasgow to 0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:17.040 discuss how best to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt 0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:21.359 to climate change. And it's usually an annual phone but 0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:24.399 this is actually we had a gap because of COVID 0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:27.120 nineteen last year, so it's actually been two years since 0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:30.680 the last one and this year it's hosted by the UK. 0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:33.000 And there seems to be a lot of pressure on 0:21:33.080 --> 0:21:35.879 this one. Is it that because of the two year 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:39.320 hiatus or is there something special about this one? Certainly 0:21:39.359 --> 0:21:42.760 kind of it's been heightened the expectations, I think because 0:21:42.840 --> 0:21:45.720 we've had this two year break. But it's also important 0:21:46.040 --> 0:21:50.360