WEBVTT - Bloomberg Wall Street Week: Blankfein & Moynihan

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. What's the state of

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<v Speaker 1>corporate governments? The deficit is a real issue. The US

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<v Speaker 1>economy continues to send mixed signals to the financial stories

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<v Speaker 1>that cheap our world fed action to con concerns over

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<v Speaker 1>dollar liquidity and encouraging China data. The five hundred wealthiest

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<v Speaker 1>people in the world. Through the eyes of the most

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<v Speaker 1>influential voices Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, Start CEO,

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin Johnson sec Chairman j Clayton. Bloomberg wool Street Week

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<v Speaker 1>with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. The American economy starts

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<v Speaker 1>to open its doors, but are consumers ready to come back?

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. Every

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<v Speaker 1>state in the Union opened its doors this week, at

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<v Speaker 1>least a little bit, and the markets held their breath

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<v Speaker 1>to see whether the consumers felt comfortable off to come

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<v Speaker 1>back outside. The numbers of cases were down, testing was up,

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<v Speaker 1>and there was even talk of a possible vaccine. But

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<v Speaker 1>is this an indication of a true pivot toward recovery

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<v Speaker 1>or are we just wishing ourselves to success us One

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<v Speaker 1>thing that everyone could agree on, the answer the question

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<v Speaker 1>lies with the consumer, and so in the end, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not an economic question at all. It's a question of

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<v Speaker 1>public health and whether people feel safe enough to re

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<v Speaker 1>enter the marketplace. Former Goldman Sachs chairman and CEO Lloyd

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<v Speaker 1>blank Find has spent a career assessing and managing risk,

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<v Speaker 1>and he says that there is health risk to be

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<v Speaker 1>incurred whenever we open the economy. It's not whether it's when, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a there's a lot that's unknown and unknowable, and moreover,

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<v Speaker 1>I know that no one knows, and so that's a

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<v Speaker 1>that's an aspect of this because you can dig and

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<v Speaker 1>dig and dig. But basically, I think with this current moment,

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<v Speaker 1>we're not so much in the realm of forecasting. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're in the realm of contingency planning. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think one of those contingentis you have to plan for, is,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the surprise. Most of the time in my

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<v Speaker 1>in my former life, surprises were almost always bad surprises.

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<v Speaker 1>Something would go wrong, and of course we were so

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<v Speaker 1>big and extensive. There's nothing that could go wrong anywhere

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<v Speaker 1>in the world that wouldn't affect us um. But I

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<v Speaker 1>would say, in this particular moment, it was seeing a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of that today. Uh, the tail i e.

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<v Speaker 1>The possibility of something highly improbable happening, Uh, could actually

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<v Speaker 1>be good for the market. So somebody announces they're making

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<v Speaker 1>progress with a vaccine. So it's a funny situation where

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<v Speaker 1>something flat. I was watching the news and something flashed

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<v Speaker 1>on and there was some surprise coming. I'm actually looking

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<v Speaker 1>forward to hear it, hearing it, whereas before it was

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<v Speaker 1>almost always going to be negative. One of the aspects

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing in this is what appears to be a

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult choice between the one hand public health, safety,

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<v Speaker 1>well being, lives and the other hand the economy. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that we're striking that balance more or less

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<v Speaker 1>the right way. Well, just to question the predicate of that,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's a real you know, that juxtaposition is

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<v Speaker 1>it's sometimes a bit off. I think there's health issues

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<v Speaker 1>on both sides, obviously, and a lot has been talked

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<v Speaker 1>about this now wherein you know, you know, extreme poverty obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>you know is a is a health risk and all

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<v Speaker 1>the things that proceed from it, and also you know, depression, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>drug addiction, UM, I mean suicide had an extreme but

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<v Speaker 1>basically life expectancy UH comes from uh, you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>fall off, a collapse in GDP, and this is unprecedented,

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<v Speaker 1>so this would be off any of those charts. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's not just health versus economy. It's health.

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<v Speaker 1>It's economy on both sides. And by the way, the

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<v Speaker 1>health issues maybe more neutral in some people think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>once the curve is you know, the original intent to

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<v Speaker 1>flatten the curve was just to stretch out the exposures

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<v Speaker 1>that people would have so it didn't overwhelm the health

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<v Speaker 1>care system. But the fact of the matter is, I

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<v Speaker 1>think unless we're going to hunker down until a vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>comes up or until the virus is obliterated from the

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<v Speaker 1>face of the earth, which I think is too long

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<v Speaker 1>to keep the whole country unwelfare, eventually people are gonna

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<v Speaker 1>go back, and when they come back, the infection rate

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<v Speaker 1>is going to go up. So I think we're just

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<v Speaker 1>postponing the exposures and the infections. Well, that's actually one

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<v Speaker 1>of my questions, which is whether it's on the health

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<v Speaker 1>front or for them on the economic fund. Extraordinary efforts

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<v Speaker 1>are being made. Are we postponing what happens? We're actually

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<v Speaker 1>changing what happens. This is a timing matter only well

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<v Speaker 1>to some degree. Look if d s X makin a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine appears, and I know there was some positive news today,

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<v Speaker 1>but just think it has to go through trials for

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we have to make sure it doesn't kill people,

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<v Speaker 1>make sure it's effective, it has to be manufactured. Just

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<v Speaker 1>stre that's really the country can't be unwelfare even that long.

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<v Speaker 1>Even if there was you know that was uh, something

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<v Speaker 1>that was magical. We are postponing it. But that doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean it's without help. They're learning things about treating viruses.

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<v Speaker 1>Even if there's not a vaccine, there are treatments that

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<v Speaker 1>people are aware of, so there is some benefit to it,

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<v Speaker 1>but not as huge as if there were an ultimate

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine that would make people comfortable. So too, I think

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<v Speaker 1>to a greater extent, we're postponing people's fosure to it,

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<v Speaker 1>and to some extent, uh, you know, we're eliminating the

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<v Speaker 1>diarist of risk that would happen if the health care

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<v Speaker 1>system was overwhelmed while people had it. But I think

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<v Speaker 1>in the long run, you know, we have to contemplate

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<v Speaker 1>that people will go back to work, what kind of

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<v Speaker 1>economy will have face and no matter when you do it.

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<v Speaker 1>Look what happened some of these Asian countries where they

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<v Speaker 1>almost they were high fiving because they the virus, the

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<v Speaker 1>new exposures were way way down, and notwithstanding that, the

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<v Speaker 1>second to go back to work, they spike up again.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's gonna be an expectation no matter when you

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<v Speaker 1>do it. I think when we go forward and look

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<v Speaker 1>back at this from sometime in the future, if we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna go through that anyway, people will be very critical

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<v Speaker 1>if the official sector UH sacrificed more of the economy

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<v Speaker 1>than they needed to, even because at the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the day, I think the exposures are going to be,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, almost the same. We've heard a fair amount

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<v Speaker 1>of both President Trump and the Federal Reserve, particularly j

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<v Speaker 1>Pal the chair recently, and it seems from the Chair

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<v Speaker 1>how we're hearing two things. One is the Fed will

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<v Speaker 1>do pretty much whatever it can, whatever it needs to

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<v Speaker 1>to really support the economy as best it can. But

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<v Speaker 1>on the other hand, a lot of caution that this

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<v Speaker 1>may take longer than we think, it may be, more

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<v Speaker 1>difficulty think and even the possibly of long term damage.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you assess the possible damage to the U

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<v Speaker 1>S economy over the longer term. Well, obviously it depends

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<v Speaker 1>on how long this goes on. And you know, you

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<v Speaker 1>could see it's easy to see what damage would be.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you have rest certain businesses that come into

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<v Speaker 1>contact with the public that are going to go away

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<v Speaker 1>that we're operating at tight margins anyway, Uh, that won't,

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<v Speaker 1>so that won't that can't afford to wait until they reopen,

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<v Speaker 1>and some businesses that will reopen at such a reduced

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<v Speaker 1>level that they won't be profitable, so they won't reopen.

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<v Speaker 1>That was former chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs Lloyd

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<v Speaker 1>blank find coming up. The head of Bank of America,

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<v Speaker 1>Brian Wynihan says that government efforts to cushion the blow

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<v Speaker 1>to the economy are working. The question is how people

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<v Speaker 1>will react as we start the economy back up. That's

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<v Speaker 1>next on Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. We

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<v Speaker 1>aren't seeing the kinds of stress of the credit markets

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<v Speaker 1>we might have expected, and that's because the massive fiscal

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<v Speaker 1>and monetary support is having at least some effect. But

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<v Speaker 1>Bank of America chairman and CEO Brian moynihan says that

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<v Speaker 1>the real test will come as we start the economy

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<v Speaker 1>back up and we discover whether the consumer is willing

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<v Speaker 1>to become fully engaged. Our view hasn't changed, but it

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<v Speaker 1>comes back to what I said before. This is a

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<v Speaker 1>healthcare crisis. And as you're starting to see the healthcare

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<v Speaker 1>crisis be mitigated not solved yet, you're starting to see

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<v Speaker 1>the economy start to recover. And we can talk about that.

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<v Speaker 1>But the approach to winning UH, the war against the

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<v Speaker 1>crisis UH for us has been a customer centric, community centric,

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<v Speaker 1>employee centric move and so you know, we've been out

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<v Speaker 1>there driving. We've been supporting our clients and trying to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure they have the credit and capital to UH

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<v Speaker 1>to do what they need to do and help them

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<v Speaker 1>through this trough of activity in the second quarter. And

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<v Speaker 1>you can see that in a loan balance and extended

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<v Speaker 1>the P P P loans and how the things we've done.

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<v Speaker 1>We've helped our consumer clients through waivers so they have

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<v Speaker 1>the ability to have better cash flow in the house.

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<v Speaker 1>We helped our teammates by saying no layoffs so they

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<v Speaker 1>know their job is secure, and then getting them safe

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<v Speaker 1>and working from home. And then we've helped our communities

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<v Speaker 1>by contributions and a hundred million dollars and c d

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<v Speaker 1>f I investments which are community development financial institutions at

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<v Speaker 1>two fifty million dollars of which about a D seventy

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<v Speaker 1>millions already out. So all that is offsetting the impacts

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<v Speaker 1>of the current second quarter down drafted you've seen with

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<v Speaker 1>the unemployment numbers, and we don't see it much differently,

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<v Speaker 1>It's just that we're starting to see us come out

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<v Speaker 1>the other side of this. Frankly. So we have heard

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<v Speaker 1>from the Federal Reserve and they've expressed some concern at

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<v Speaker 1>least that as this pandemic continues, there may be some

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<v Speaker 1>threat to the overall system and specifically talks for example

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<v Speaker 1>about commercial real estate. Are you seeing some parts of

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<v Speaker 1>the market that are particularly vulnerable on the credit side.

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<v Speaker 1>Remember that the US economy is going to be depended

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<v Speaker 1>on the activity the consumer base, and and so yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I always have to start there when you talk about

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<v Speaker 1>the US. So even though we have this year from

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<v Speaker 1>the Bank American research team, which is the best in

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<v Speaker 1>the world, you know, being minus five percent five and

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<v Speaker 1>a half percent this year and plus five percent next year,

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<v Speaker 1>the real question will be how to consumers behave, and

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<v Speaker 1>in what we've seen since the low point in the

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<v Speaker 1>second couple first couple weeks of April, in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>everything in terms of their spending because of the stay

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<v Speaker 1>at home edicts, in terms of their borrowing activity, UH,

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of the transfer of money. UM, you saw

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<v Speaker 1>all that fall to a lowest level, and obviously things

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<v Speaker 1>like travel and hotels and things were most affected. But

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<v Speaker 1>as you've seen steadily as you went through the third

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<v Speaker 1>week April then on into the first part of May,

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing their activities pick up, even in the states

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<v Speaker 1>that are still under stay from home, and you're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>the activity pick up much quicker in the places they're

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<v Speaker 1>going back to work. And so for the month of May,

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing it down about you know, two or three

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<v Speaker 1>or four percent verst was last year UH for the

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<v Speaker 1>year today, it's down a couple of percent. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>the question. The length of this is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>how the consumers behave given the high levels unemployment that

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<v Speaker 1>you've seen published when people get back to work, jobs

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<v Speaker 1>coming back in the stimulus payments which are all hitting

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<v Speaker 1>the street of the last few weeks, and how all

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<v Speaker 1>works together to see if the consumer's behavior changed. And

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<v Speaker 1>when I hear when you hear Government Chair Pale and others,

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<v Speaker 1>the concern I have is have we changed consumer behavior

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<v Speaker 1>as we look out across the next you know, four

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<v Speaker 1>or five, six quarters. Well, that is a key question,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe the key question, Brian, clearly when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>the consumer. I know you've already taken about four point

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<v Speaker 1>eight billion dollar reserve against credit possible losses given the

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<v Speaker 1>level unemployment, which is really quite stunning. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>that's gonna be enough? Well, what you've seen so far

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<v Speaker 1>is with the consumer help, we've we've granted about a

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<v Speaker 1>million a half payment deferrals. But if you look at

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<v Speaker 1>the actual interesting statistics about thirty or five or the

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<v Speaker 1>people ask for a credit card payment deferral when I

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<v Speaker 1>had made the payment. And if you go and a

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<v Speaker 1>look at those consumers, what you see is because of

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<v Speaker 1>the UH leave aside the issue of where the money

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<v Speaker 1>is coming from, you're seeing higher balance in our account.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's because the stimulus between you know, the I

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<v Speaker 1>P payments, between the enhanced unemployment, these measures taken by

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<v Speaker 1>Congress and by the administration, by the FED have worked

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<v Speaker 1>offset the unfortunate aspects of very high unemployment, and so

0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:25.200
<v Speaker 1>so far you're not seeing the delinquent seas and things

0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:29.920
<v Speaker 1>rise vs. You've seen payment deferrals UH increase, but you're

0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:31.720
<v Speaker 1>seeing them start to level off and come down in

0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:34.640
<v Speaker 1>our book, and so we we expect to see you

0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:38.000
<v Speaker 1>charge offs coming later on as as as this thing

0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.240
<v Speaker 1>goes on. But the reality is right now you're not

0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:42.920
<v Speaker 1>seeing the kind of credit damage that you'd expect to

0:11:42.960 --> 0:11:45.240
<v Speaker 1>see with this amount of down draft and activity. The

0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:47.480
<v Speaker 1>question is what happens next, and that's we're all watching.

0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:49.920
<v Speaker 1>And to that very point you said in the past,

0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.200
<v Speaker 1>China to some extent may give us some indication. We've

0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:54.800
<v Speaker 1>seen numbers coming out at China, Brian and indicate the

0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.439
<v Speaker 1>industrial production has come back pretty quickly. All consumption is

0:11:57.480 --> 0:11:59.600
<v Speaker 1>coming back as well. But on the other hand, consumer

0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:01.960
<v Speaker 1>maybe not so much with the retail sales. Does that

0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:04.559
<v Speaker 1>give you cause for concern back here in the United States, Well,

0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:07.360
<v Speaker 1>it does because the question is how did you change behavior?

0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.319
<v Speaker 1>So when you saw Chinese UH, you know, they went

0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:13.080
<v Speaker 1>into this earlier, they locked down earlier, they came out earlier,

0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:15.960
<v Speaker 1>and you know, we're back in our offices in China

0:12:16.040 --> 0:12:19.679
<v Speaker 1>moving from people back towards so you're starting to see

0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:23.079
<v Speaker 1>normalization of activity and in the questions what's the underlying

0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:26.480
<v Speaker 1>activity and restaurants and shopping and things like that. And

0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 1>so you saw an immediate burst of activity as they

0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:31.560
<v Speaker 1>open back up and the say it fall back down.

0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:33.000
<v Speaker 1>And that's what we have to watch in the United

0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:34.840
<v Speaker 1>States is there will be a burst of activity in

0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:37.439
<v Speaker 1>some of these places as people who have been do

0:12:37.480 --> 0:12:39.720
<v Speaker 1>in their homes for six, five, six sevent eight weeks

0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 1>go back out and do things, and then will let

0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.240
<v Speaker 1>sustain And that's where you need to look more fundamentally

0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:47.760
<v Speaker 1>on things like car purchases and things like house purchases

0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:49.480
<v Speaker 1>and see where they start to end up over time.

0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:52.920
<v Speaker 1>But remember the baseline projection for most people is the

0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:56.640
<v Speaker 1>economy doesn't get back to its current size until you

0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:58.520
<v Speaker 1>get to sort of the end of next year. That's

0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:02.080
<v Speaker 1>the definition of recovery. So but each quarter from this

0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.320
<v Speaker 1>quarter forward is increased economic activity. In what we have

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:08.160
<v Speaker 1>to make sure and all the policies and stimulus have

0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:10.280
<v Speaker 1>been put in place or making sure is that despite

0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.079
<v Speaker 1>the very hig unemployment, despite the issues of who's unemployed,

0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:15.240
<v Speaker 1>despite the issues getting that we need to get people

0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:16.960
<v Speaker 1>back to work in the human toll of all that

0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 1>these stimulus is off setting. It is an attempt off

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.040
<v Speaker 1>set that and you have to see that play out

0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:24.439
<v Speaker 1>of our time, Brian, you have something like a hundred

0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 1>eighty thousand I think people working from home right now.

0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.040
<v Speaker 1>You talked about what you're doing over in Asia. When

0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:30.840
<v Speaker 1>do you expect him to come back? And how and

0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:33.080
<v Speaker 1>by the way, how many will they all come back? Well?

0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:35.680
<v Speaker 1>That the ideas we have. We've always had people who

0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:39.600
<v Speaker 1>worked outside the standard office setting, and that's something we do. Um.

0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:42.720
<v Speaker 1>There's a great debate you know, with us change forever

0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 1>the workforce in America and where they want to work.

0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:47.920
<v Speaker 1>We'll see that play out. But that is that is

0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:50.360
<v Speaker 1>further out there. And then your term. We have we

0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.360
<v Speaker 1>have been open every day. We have not shut down

0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:55.599
<v Speaker 1>except for the branches we closed out of concerns to

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.840
<v Speaker 1>keep our teammates safe in those in those branches. Um,

0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:03.840
<v Speaker 1>we which is about the branches. Everything else has been open.

0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:05.880
<v Speaker 1>We've been functioning every day and we're beginning to open

0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:09.160
<v Speaker 1>those branches, especially in the States, are reopening slowly but surely.

0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 1>So we have the ability to operate very well, very

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.480
<v Speaker 1>much under control. Our technops team under Kathy Bisson's leadership,

0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.319
<v Speaker 1>to the fablished job of putting us a position to

0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:19.280
<v Speaker 1>have a hundred and eighty thousand people work from home

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 1>so we can operate this way. So we have the

0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:25.640
<v Speaker 1>luxury to go back slowly and with social distancing requirements,

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:29.200
<v Speaker 1>with temperature taking while all the policies that all employers

0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:31.720
<v Speaker 1>want to put in place, you know, the the ability

0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:34.400
<v Speaker 1>of the luxury putting people back in place carefully also

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:36.640
<v Speaker 1>takes the burden off of the communities we operate in,

0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:40.800
<v Speaker 1>not to have high level of cases or perfections and

0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 1>having people move around and creating pressure on the community.

0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:46.920
<v Speaker 1>So we will go back slowly. We haven't said any

0:14:46.960 --> 0:14:49.520
<v Speaker 1>plans yet. We have a top talent team working on

0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.440
<v Speaker 1>the re entry back to the office. It's not back

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:54.360
<v Speaker 1>to work, We're working every day. It's back to the office.

0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:58.080
<v Speaker 1>That was Brian moynihan, Bank of America Chairman and CEO.

0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 1>Coming up. Speaker Nancy Pelosi thinks she knows what the

0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:05.000
<v Speaker 1>public needs to feel confident, and it's going to require

0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.440
<v Speaker 1>some more help from the federal government. That's next on

0:15:08.520 --> 0:15:17.120
<v Speaker 1>Wall Street Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:21.560
<v Speaker 1>Week with David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. Congress has already

0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:25.120
<v Speaker 1>appropriated trillions of dollars to show up the economy, but

0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.880
<v Speaker 1>Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi says more needs to

0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 1>be done to help those tens of millions of Americans

0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:32.600
<v Speaker 1>who are out of work and to protect hundreds of

0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 1>millions of Americans across the country as they return to

0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.760
<v Speaker 1>the marketplace. Yes, it, indeed, we want the economy to

0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:45.920
<v Speaker 1>open up, and the science is the path to that. Testing, tracing, treating, isolating.

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.280
<v Speaker 1>It has to be a scientific answer, and of course

0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:53.120
<v Speaker 1>we hope and pray for vaccine and and some therapies,

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.800
<v Speaker 1>but in the meantime, we have testing and that's what

0:15:56.920 --> 0:15:59.560
<v Speaker 1>we need to use to get the handle on the

0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:03.000
<v Speaker 1>side of the challenge. We have uh to trace it

0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 1>and to treat so that we have fewer deaths. That

0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:08.760
<v Speaker 1>is the answer now. In addition to that, and we

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:12.440
<v Speaker 1>have that a strategic plan and our heroes at a

0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>strategic plan to do that with. As you do in business,

0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 1>have a goal, have a timetable, had milestones, have benchmarks.

0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:23.120
<v Speaker 1>That's exactly what we have in addition to that, in

0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:26.640
<v Speaker 1>order to support the economy. We honor our heroes by

0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:32.080
<v Speaker 1>keeping state, local, territorial, and tribal governments functioning. Uh. These people,

0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:34.720
<v Speaker 1>many of them on the front line of risking their

0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:38.600
<v Speaker 1>lives to save other people's lives, now fear losing their jobs.

0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:42.760
<v Speaker 1>All of these services that are rendered are not only jobs,

0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:45.800
<v Speaker 1>but they are they meet the needs of the American people.

0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:49.600
<v Speaker 1>That helps the economy. And then third, putting money into

0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:52.800
<v Speaker 1>the pockets of the American people. We all know that

0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:58.040
<v Speaker 1>issues like unemployment, insurance, food stamps and the rest really

0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:02.280
<v Speaker 1>are provide stimulus to the economy, and we have to

0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.400
<v Speaker 1>do that. Uh. And we said we think in our package,

0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:09.440
<v Speaker 1>the Heroes Act, that we do just exactly that, a

0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:14.880
<v Speaker 1>scientific path to open the economy safely, safely and soon,

0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:20.360
<v Speaker 1>supporting our heroes, to keep those jobs in place, which

0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.240
<v Speaker 1>is important, which are important to the economy, and again

0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:25.640
<v Speaker 1>the stimulus that money in the pockets of the American

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:30.159
<v Speaker 1>people provides. Of course, the question on everyone's mind is

0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:33.200
<v Speaker 1>the prospects of passage of the Heroes Act or something

0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:35.359
<v Speaker 1>like it, and when it might happen. We've heard from

0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.760
<v Speaker 1>Secretary Minution that he talked to you at least last

0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:39.880
<v Speaker 1>week about something he agrees something needs to be done.

0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:42.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure how quickly. President Trump said he's working

0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:44.960
<v Speaker 1>with Mitch McConnell as a majority leader on some sort

0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:48.320
<v Speaker 1>of package. Are you in active negotiations? How much hope

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:51.560
<v Speaker 1>do you have the will have something relatively soon? Well,

0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:55.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm optimistic because American people fully support what we are

0:17:55.680 --> 0:18:00.800
<v Speaker 1>doing two to one already just it's just newly passed. Uh.

0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:05.080
<v Speaker 1>They support the provisions of our bill and oppose the

0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:09.560
<v Speaker 1>Senate obstructing it. So I have confidence in public opinion

0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:13.560
<v Speaker 1>also when it's by partisan across the country, we have

0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.840
<v Speaker 1>less than a trillion dollars that goes to states, localities, tribes,

0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:24.680
<v Speaker 1>and territorial governments that provide jobs for people across the country.

0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:29.760
<v Speaker 1>So we have democratic and Republican mayors, governors, county executives

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:33.720
<v Speaker 1>and the rest very enthusiastic about the legislation and making

0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:37.879
<v Speaker 1>their voices known, uh to the members of the United

0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:41.359
<v Speaker 1>States Senate. This is very unusual that we have such

0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:48.320
<v Speaker 1>a strong bipartisan advocacy for legislation of this kind, which

0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:52.200
<v Speaker 1>is meeting resistance in the Senate. But I don't think

0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:55.800
<v Speaker 1>for long because what we have in the bill is disciplined,

0:18:56.119 --> 0:19:00.679
<v Speaker 1>it's focused, its own necessary, and it has brought bipartisan

0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.480
<v Speaker 1>support in the country. It's just a matter of time.

0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:06.720
<v Speaker 1>They want to pause. But as I've said here before,

0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:10.840
<v Speaker 1>hunger doesn't take a pause, Losing your job doesn't take

0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:14.120
<v Speaker 1>a pause. All of the paying the rent doesn't take

0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:16.960
<v Speaker 1>a pause. We really need to meet the needs of

0:19:17.000 --> 0:19:20.600
<v Speaker 1>the American people and at the same time provide stimulus

0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:25.040
<v Speaker 1>to the economy. You mentioned minuting, but also the head

0:19:25.040 --> 0:19:27.160
<v Speaker 1>of the FED, the Chairman of the Fed, Powell has

0:19:27.200 --> 0:19:31.680
<v Speaker 1>said that is responsibility of elected representatives to use the

0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:35.880
<v Speaker 1>tax and spend responsibilities that we have in a way

0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:40.280
<v Speaker 1>that helps the economy, and he has indicated that there's

0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:44.520
<v Speaker 1>need for more. Just one quick thought about China, because

0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:46.639
<v Speaker 1>another thing that pious to have bipartisan support right now

0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 1>the Capitol Hill is the legislation including possibly delistings some

0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:51.919
<v Speaker 1>Chinese company. Is that going to make it. It's been

0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:53.680
<v Speaker 1>through the Senate, is it gonna make it through the House,

0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:57.920
<v Speaker 1>and might have ramifications for the markets overall I have

0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:01.600
<v Speaker 1>this is something we just learned of past uh with

0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:06.080
<v Speaker 1>unanimous consent, so it isn't much debate or uh, we

0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:09.280
<v Speaker 1>don't know who voted if unanimous consent, so we'll review

0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:11.440
<v Speaker 1>it in the House. I've asked my committees to take

0:20:11.480 --> 0:20:13.840
<v Speaker 1>a look at what that is. I take second place

0:20:13.880 --> 0:20:17.359
<v Speaker 1>to No. One UH in the Congress, House or Senate,

0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:22.399
<v Speaker 1>and my criticisms of China's UH trade policies visit the

0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:26.160
<v Speaker 1>United States over decades, or human rights policies, or proliferation

0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:29.879
<v Speaker 1>of weapons of mass destruction right now, whether it's the

0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:32.560
<v Speaker 1>weed ares, the people of Hong Kong to bet, you

0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:35.920
<v Speaker 1>name it. They have been very oppressive and even more so.

0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:38.840
<v Speaker 1>But the fact is that we have to judge every

0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:41.399
<v Speaker 1>We have to have a relationship with China, and we

0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:44.520
<v Speaker 1>judge every action as to what it means to us

0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:46.680
<v Speaker 1>as well as what it means to them. So I

0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:49.800
<v Speaker 1>look forward to seeing that. It's interesting that it had

0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:53.200
<v Speaker 1>such unanimous support, though in the center that was speed

0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:56.119
<v Speaker 1>of the House. Nancy Pelosi coming up. We wrap up

0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:59.520
<v Speaker 1>the week with Larry Summers. This is Wall Street Read

0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:08.560
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with David

0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:11.560
<v Speaker 1>Weston from Bloomberg Radio. We wrap up the week this

0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:14.200
<v Speaker 1>week we do every week with our very special contributor

0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:18.000
<v Speaker 1>Larry Summers of Harvard so, Larry, we had some experience

0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:20.439
<v Speaker 1>this week with some economies starting to open up. We

0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:23.240
<v Speaker 1>had Georgia start to open up first. We also have

0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:26.239
<v Speaker 1>Sweden that never really closed very much. What are we

0:21:26.359 --> 0:21:29.840
<v Speaker 1>learning from that is it doesn't do the consumers come

0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:34.840
<v Speaker 1>bouncing right back. I think we're learning something um that

0:21:34.920 --> 0:21:37.960
<v Speaker 1>was quite surprising to me, though perhaps it should not

0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:44.200
<v Speaker 1>have been. Uh. Lockdown is actually less the issue than

0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:48.400
<v Speaker 1>people's fear. If you look at what's happened to consumer spending,

0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:53.320
<v Speaker 1>it's come back some in Georgia, but it's also come down.

0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:56.320
<v Speaker 1>It's also come back in New York and to just

0:21:56.520 --> 0:22:00.920
<v Speaker 1>about exactly the same extent. If you look at Sweden,

0:22:01.000 --> 0:22:06.080
<v Speaker 1>which never closed down, and Denmark, which closed down pretty rigorously.

0:22:06.680 --> 0:22:10.760
<v Speaker 1>Many more people have died in Sweden, but there hasn't

0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:14.280
<v Speaker 1>been much difference in what's happened to consumer spending or

0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:17.800
<v Speaker 1>the economy. The Swedish economies dipped eighty percent as much

0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:22.320
<v Speaker 1>as the Danish economy has the reality is that what

0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:25.959
<v Speaker 1>this is more about is not the lockdown, but the

0:22:26.080 --> 0:22:30.040
<v Speaker 1>virus and people's degree of confidence. And if you think

0:22:30.080 --> 0:22:33.880
<v Speaker 1>about it, that makes sense. If they opened up all

0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:37.119
<v Speaker 1>the restaurants to go sit in one. I wouldn't go

0:22:37.240 --> 0:22:42.639
<v Speaker 1>sit in restaurant now, even though I like UH restaurants,

0:22:42.840 --> 0:22:46.400
<v Speaker 1>I think most of us are more constrained by our

0:22:46.440 --> 0:22:50.000
<v Speaker 1>desire to be prudent about our health and prudent about

0:22:50.040 --> 0:22:53.080
<v Speaker 1>the health of people we might pass a virus onto.

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:59.359
<v Speaker 1>Then we are constrained by some law that some governor decrees.

0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 1>That just underscores what I've been saying for some weeks

0:23:04.080 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 1>that ultimately the most important economic policies are the health policies,

0:23:11.240 --> 0:23:17.880
<v Speaker 1>whether it's testing or therapy or vaccination that or contact tracing,

0:23:18.320 --> 0:23:21.720
<v Speaker 1>that can put this problem in the rear view mirror.

0:23:22.119 --> 0:23:25.200
<v Speaker 1>And until we do that, I don't think we're really

0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:31.560
<v Speaker 1>gonna fix the fundamental economic concern. And when we do that,

0:23:32.240 --> 0:23:38.920
<v Speaker 1>we've got a prospect of a reasonably rapid UH recovery.

0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 1>But I think we have learned something important that this

0:23:42.560 --> 0:23:48.760
<v Speaker 1>great debate about lockdowns is actually less of a debate

0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:52.240
<v Speaker 1>than we have all thought about it as being, because

0:23:52.280 --> 0:23:55.159
<v Speaker 1>people who don't believe in the lockdown in the United

0:23:55.200 --> 0:23:59.160
<v Speaker 1>States don't respect it and honor it, and people who

0:23:59.720 --> 0:24:04.200
<v Speaker 1>are are scared don't go out even if the lockdown

0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:09.160
<v Speaker 1>is UH removed. I saw that one of the prominent

0:24:09.240 --> 0:24:13.960
<v Speaker 1>Washington think tanks. UM has announced that it's not going

0:24:14.040 --> 0:24:16.359
<v Speaker 1>to have any visitors until the end of the year,

0:24:17.080 --> 0:24:20.560
<v Speaker 1>and it's not gonna have anybody back in their offices

0:24:20.720 --> 0:24:24.520
<v Speaker 1>until September at the earliest. Well, you know, they're not

0:24:24.600 --> 0:24:28.119
<v Speaker 1>waiting to see what gets decreed by the president or

0:24:28.160 --> 0:24:31.399
<v Speaker 1>by the mayor of Washington, d C. And you're seeing

0:24:31.440 --> 0:24:35.399
<v Speaker 1>a lot of that kind of thing. This is going

0:24:35.440 --> 0:24:40.080
<v Speaker 1>to be based more on decentralized decision making of people

0:24:40.119 --> 0:24:44.119
<v Speaker 1>who assess risks to themselves. Uh. Is I think what

0:24:44.160 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 1>we've learned here. Yeah, as you say, Larry, consumers are

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:50.000
<v Speaker 1>gonna vote with their feet is a practical matter. But

0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:53.200
<v Speaker 1>you've been a staunch advocate for a much ramped up

0:24:53.280 --> 0:24:56.600
<v Speaker 1>testing and contact tracing program. Is it possible that could

0:24:56.640 --> 0:24:58.919
<v Speaker 1>be enough to restore the confidence to the consumer, to

0:24:58.960 --> 0:25:01.000
<v Speaker 1>the worker or we really have to wait to a

0:25:01.080 --> 0:25:05.119
<v Speaker 1>vaccine as a practical practical matter. Look, I don't think

0:25:05.280 --> 0:25:07.800
<v Speaker 1>this is going to be behind us until we have

0:25:07.840 --> 0:25:15.199
<v Speaker 1>a vaccine or a convincing and highly credible, uh, highly

0:25:15.280 --> 0:25:21.639
<v Speaker 1>credible kind of therapy. I do think that if we

0:25:21.720 --> 0:25:27.240
<v Speaker 1>did the right things with testing, that all kinds of

0:25:27.920 --> 0:25:33.880
<v Speaker 1>private ways of employers testing their employees before they come

0:25:33.880 --> 0:25:39.840
<v Speaker 1>back and retesting them on a periodic basis. Universities UH

0:25:40.160 --> 0:25:43.879
<v Speaker 1>opening to at least some extent based on the fact

0:25:43.920 --> 0:25:47.800
<v Speaker 1>that they were going to test each student with UH

0:25:48.200 --> 0:25:53.480
<v Speaker 1>some period some periodicity. UM. I think these kinds of

0:25:53.520 --> 0:25:57.439
<v Speaker 1>things will start to happen if we have testing, and

0:25:57.520 --> 0:26:03.640
<v Speaker 1>they'll be a further multiplier from UH testing UH if

0:26:03.720 --> 0:26:09.840
<v Speaker 1>we can UH do it more more pervasively. So I

0:26:09.920 --> 0:26:14.680
<v Speaker 1>do think that ramping up testing should be a very

0:26:14.720 --> 0:26:19.679
<v Speaker 1>great priority. I suspect the utility of testing will come

0:26:19.720 --> 0:26:25.159
<v Speaker 1>in a more decentralized way then I probably would have

0:26:25.200 --> 0:26:29.160
<v Speaker 1>imagined a few weeks ago. It'll be employers, it will

0:26:29.200 --> 0:26:33.560
<v Speaker 1>be airlines um, not wanting to have anybody with the

0:26:33.640 --> 0:26:40.360
<v Speaker 1>virus on their planes. It will be similar things for

0:26:40.920 --> 0:26:47.480
<v Speaker 1>entering into various kinds of activities, right right, So the Larry,

0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:49.600
<v Speaker 1>if the markets didn't have enough to worry about with

0:26:49.640 --> 0:26:53.800
<v Speaker 1>the virus, we also injected growing conflict with China US

0:26:53.880 --> 0:26:57.200
<v Speaker 1>China UH, and we have of course the People's Congress

0:26:57.280 --> 0:26:59.919
<v Speaker 1>meeting and taking various actions. We have up on the

0:27:00.080 --> 0:27:04.159
<v Speaker 1>hill move to delist some Chinese companies passed the Senate

0:27:04.520 --> 0:27:06.679
<v Speaker 1>it's depending before the House. And the meantime, we had

0:27:06.680 --> 0:27:09.199
<v Speaker 1>the Secretary of State Pompeios that we're gonna review the

0:27:09.400 --> 0:27:11.879
<v Speaker 1>special trade stays for Hong Kong because Hong Kong actually

0:27:12.000 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of a victim perhaps of Beijing saying we're having

0:27:14.600 --> 0:27:16.920
<v Speaker 1>new security law. Does that make sense right now given

0:27:16.960 --> 0:27:18.879
<v Speaker 1>what's going on with the global economy and the U

0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:25.879
<v Speaker 1>S economy. I don't get it. UM, Hong Kong's a victim,

0:27:25.920 --> 0:27:29.280
<v Speaker 1>so why punish. I don't think you're gonna do any

0:27:29.440 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 1>important damage to China by fooling around with Hong Kong's

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:38.480
<v Speaker 1>trade status, But you're gonna hurt the people of Hong

0:27:38.560 --> 0:27:44.879
<v Speaker 1>Kong even worse are than UH. They're hurting UH now,

0:27:45.359 --> 0:27:52.320
<v Speaker 1>So I don't really see UH the logic. I sympathize I,

0:27:52.320 --> 0:27:56.359
<v Speaker 1>and I feel for the fact that the warnings that

0:27:56.440 --> 0:28:00.480
<v Speaker 1>were given at the time when UH I was in

0:28:00.680 --> 0:28:04.080
<v Speaker 1>I was in government at the time and went to

0:28:04.160 --> 0:28:09.760
<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong and spoke about the importance of one country,

0:28:09.800 --> 0:28:14.840
<v Speaker 1>two systems as really a test of China's UH credibility,

0:28:14.880 --> 0:28:17.639
<v Speaker 1>and China doesn't appear to be meeting that test. And

0:28:17.680 --> 0:28:21.199
<v Speaker 1>it's tragic, but it seems like to the extent we

0:28:21.240 --> 0:28:24.480
<v Speaker 1>want to be taking any action, it should be towards

0:28:24.880 --> 0:28:29.840
<v Speaker 1>UH China, not towards the victim, which is Hong Kong.

0:28:30.760 --> 0:28:39.840
<v Speaker 1>I don't really understand why preventing Americans preventing Chinese companies

0:28:40.280 --> 0:28:44.440
<v Speaker 1>from listing on the American stock market when they meet

0:28:44.520 --> 0:28:48.920
<v Speaker 1>the relevant capital market requirements is going to serve American interests.

0:28:48.960 --> 0:28:53.040
<v Speaker 1>Seems to me that it's going to reduce our degree

0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:57.880
<v Speaker 1>of influence and leverage over those companies and over China.

0:28:58.480 --> 0:29:02.600
<v Speaker 1>It's gonna make it harder for Americans to make investments.

0:29:03.160 --> 0:29:06.440
<v Speaker 1>It's not going to really impact on those countries ability

0:29:06.480 --> 0:29:09.880
<v Speaker 1>to access capital. It's going to be a great gift

0:29:10.200 --> 0:29:16.440
<v Speaker 1>UH to stock exchanges in Singapore, to stock exchanges UH

0:29:16.480 --> 0:29:19.720
<v Speaker 1>in London. Ironically, it may be a big gift to

0:29:19.800 --> 0:29:22.960
<v Speaker 1>the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. At the same time, other

0:29:23.000 --> 0:29:28.040
<v Speaker 1>people in the administration are trying to damage UH the

0:29:28.120 --> 0:29:31.440
<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong economy. So I don't think we have a

0:29:31.520 --> 0:29:37.640
<v Speaker 1>policy that's defined by its UH coherence. I think a

0:29:37.800 --> 0:29:41.320
<v Speaker 1>mature policy would recognize that at this point we are

0:29:41.320 --> 0:29:44.120
<v Speaker 1>not friends with China and probably not going to be

0:29:44.680 --> 0:29:51.120
<v Speaker 1>friends or allies or partners in the foreseeable future. We

0:29:51.280 --> 0:29:58.960
<v Speaker 1>are uh, two very strong individuals in a small lifeboat

0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:02.720
<v Speaker 1>in a turbulent let's see, a long way from the shore.

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:07.600
<v Speaker 1>We don't need to like each other, but we do

0:30:07.800 --> 0:30:14.360
<v Speaker 1>need to cooperate with each other. And pursuing tip for

0:30:14.480 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 1>tat acts of revenge, even if we're right in some

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:27.760
<v Speaker 1>abstract sense that we can anger hers and alienate them,

0:30:28.720 --> 0:30:33.320
<v Speaker 1>is not going to serve our objective of getting to

0:30:34.040 --> 0:30:38.480
<v Speaker 1>uh the shore. So we need to find a way

0:30:39.120 --> 0:30:47.880
<v Speaker 1>of elevating this relationship past at um the adulthood, Yeah,

0:30:47.920 --> 0:30:50.320
<v Speaker 1>which will be particularly challenge in a presidential election year.

0:30:50.360 --> 0:30:52.880
<v Speaker 1>I did dare say thank you so much Larry Summers,

0:30:52.880 --> 0:30:56.760
<v Speaker 1>our special contributor, of course, former Secretary of Treasury that

0:30:56.880 --> 0:31:01.000
<v Speaker 1>does it for Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston is Bloomberg.

0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:02.360
<v Speaker 1>I hopefully see you next week.