Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single best idea seven
Speaker 1: conversations Today Today was incredibly strong given the news flow,
Speaker 1: just absolutely extraordinary. Eric Wasson of Bloomberg and Washington was
Speaker 1: just absolutely lights out about what now for Washington and
Speaker 1: our fractured political process. We thank Eric Wasson on a
Speaker 1: huge schedule issues with the twenty four to seven Washington
Speaker 1: News for being with us as well. Sam Stove all
Speaker 1: over CFRA talking bubbles in the stock market really quite good.
Speaker 1: He's enthused. He's looking for higher prices, not like what
Speaker 1: we heard yesterday on S and P five hundred, going
Speaker 1: from sixty eight hundred to seventy seven hundred according to
Speaker 1: Infrastructure Associates, CFRA looks for seventy four hundred, a little
Speaker 1: less aggressive number out nevertheless optimistic. But then you have
Speaker 1: to know where the GDP statistic is. Tiffany Wilding doesn't
Speaker 1: know where that is. Here's Tiffany Wilding, a PIMCO.
Speaker 2: The shutdown will absolutely impact fourth quarter growth. We think
Speaker 2: that one one to one and a half percent is
Speaker 2: what it could shave off of the fourth quarter. So
Speaker 2: we absolutely could see a negative fourth quarter GDP print.
Speaker 2: But nevertheless, as the government has already reopened, that activity
Speaker 2: will come back online and you'll see an offsetting pickup
Speaker 2: in the first quarter of next year. I think the
Speaker 2: other thing to keep in mind in the first quarter
Speaker 2: is that you're also going to get refund checks to
Speaker 2: households that are quite large this year, so that will
Speaker 2: provide also some support to the economy and to consumption
Speaker 2: in the first part of next year.
Speaker 1: That is a reoccurring theme. Let's pause for that, Tiffany
Speaker 1: Wilding mentioning refund checks of some type. There was legislation
Speaker 1: in the distant pass of sixteen months ago, guessing and
Speaker 1: that legislation, to many of our guests is nothing more
Speaker 1: than stimulus. There's an overlay out. I think of Alicia
Speaker 1: Levine at BNY mel And talking about the overlay of
Speaker 1: legislative impulse of stimulus into the American economy. That's one
Speaker 1: of the cross currents here, all wrapped around, of course,
Speaker 1: thisnknown unknown of technology and AI, and I'm using AI
Speaker 1: more and more each and every day. My favorite people
Speaker 1: ask me what am I using at Bloomberg. I'm using
Speaker 1: a lot of Google Gemini. That seems to be what
Speaker 1: we're circling around here. We've got other things as well,
Speaker 1: and you know, on my phone and such, I use perplexity.
Speaker 1: Thank you to Tom Sekunda, one of our founders, who
Speaker 1: said to me, shut up. Tom used perplexity, and I'm
Speaker 1: really enjoying it's making me smarter and better each and
Speaker 1: every day. We were smarter and better at the start
Speaker 1: of the show today from Atlanta. Really excellent. I need
Speaker 1: to take a moment here. Keith Lerner is a trust
Speaker 1: and what's so important about what he brings to the
Speaker 1: conversation is he has degrees with a Chartered Financial Analyst
Speaker 1: and the Market Technicians CMT designation as well. So this
Speaker 1: is someone that dovetails in fundamentals and technicals into his analysis. Forward.
Speaker 1: Keith Lerner on the view forward.
Speaker 3: What we try to do to try to keep it
Speaker 3: simple and focus primarily on the trends, the primary trends.
Speaker 3: So I try not to do like all the crazy stuff.
Speaker 3: What really matters, cut to the noise, and what matters
Speaker 3: to me as I look at the global pictures, we
Speaker 3: have a global rally underway. We have ninety percent of
Speaker 3: ninety percent plus of global markets in uptrends above the
Speaker 3: twenty day movement average. And thinking about yesterday, we're seeing
Speaker 3: like maybe tech takes a little bit of a breather.
Speaker 3: There's rotation to other areas, and we have the EFI
Speaker 3: Index making a new high, Emerging markets close to an
Speaker 3: all time high as well. So I think the primary
Speaker 3: trend is positive, and I think the main message is
Speaker 3: you have to continue to give that primary trend and
Speaker 3: the benefit of the doubt.
Speaker 1: Keith Lerner with Truest of Atlanta and of course across
Speaker 1: the nation as well, on your podcast on Apple, on Spotify,
Speaker 1: on YouTube podcasts. Its single best idea