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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right, here we go,

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Speaker 2: throwing in Joe spect I'm saying it's a cash.

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Speaker 1: To see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win. God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate kaba.

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Speaker 2: You want to pack.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hi everyone, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented

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Speaker 2: by A FanDuel. I'm your host, Nick Giffen, predictive analyst

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Speaker 2: here at the Action Network, filling in for Chris Ravon, who, unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: for the first time in five years, is out sick today.

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Speaker 2: Uh So I'm filling in and I am joined by

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Speaker 2: my colleague and boss, director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Kerner,

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Speaker 2: and we have his NFL player projection for week eighteen

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Speaker 2: on today's show sewn and are going to run through

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Speaker 2: his top five at each skill position along with the

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Speaker 2: players he's especially high and low on this week, and

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Speaker 2: of course with raybon out, should be a pretty quick

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Speaker 2: episode for you guys. Also, obviously, due to the terrible

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Speaker 2: ongoing Tomorrow Hamlin situation, a lot of things remain in

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Speaker 2: flux across the NFL. So we're gonna provide the coverage

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Speaker 2: we can with the information we have available right now

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Speaker 2: as best we can as we record here on Wednesday night.

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Speaker 2: We're not gonna speculate beyond what we know now, so

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Speaker 2: you know, we're not going to dive into every game

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Speaker 2: in this episode as we normally would. So that's just

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Speaker 2: how we're gonna treat things because of this unfortunate situation,

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Speaker 2: and we definitely wish Tomorrow Hamlin.

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Speaker 1: All the best.

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Speaker 2: With that said, I bring in Sean Kerner. Sean, I

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Speaker 2: know obviously your thoughts are with Damar.

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Speaker 1: As well, Like you said, continue to pray for DeMar

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Speaker 1: Hamlin and his family. And having said that, why don't

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Speaker 1: we just kick off with quarterbacks? Right?

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Speaker 2: So?

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Speaker 1: Top five quarterback this week is number one Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: as always, Jalen Hurts looks like he's going to return

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Speaker 1: this week, so he's my QB two, and then we

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Speaker 1: got Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert rounding out

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Speaker 1: my top five.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So with Jalen Hurts back in there, like you said,

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Speaker 2: he is your number two quarterback. Any concern there just

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Speaker 2: that he could be limited or anything like that with

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Speaker 2: this week's game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's obviously a concern. I would say that his

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Speaker 1: ceiling is probably a little bit lower than usual because

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Speaker 1: of that, they should be the Giants pretty easily. But

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Speaker 1: getting there, he's probably gonna put up a ton of points.

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Speaker 1: So just you know, just based on his floor, I

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Speaker 1: still consider him a top two option, but I'm not

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Speaker 1: too worried about his shoulder injury. I don't think they

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Speaker 1: would be sending him out there if he wasn't closer

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Speaker 1: to one hundred percent. So yeah, he's just too good

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Speaker 1: to like have outside my top two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. Are there any other quarterbacks you might you know,

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Speaker 2: especially be high on this week, or you know, some

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Speaker 2: top tier quarterback options that he might be low on

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Speaker 2: this week?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'm high on Sam Ellinger against the Texans.

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Speaker 1: He's my QB seventeen. The consensus has some QB twenty seven,

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Speaker 1: and as you and I both know, betting on the

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Speaker 1: Colts frequently this year, the quarterback situation has been a disaster,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of that's due to the offensive line

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Speaker 1: have just has just been terrible this season. So Sam Ellinger,

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Speaker 1: he struggled in his two starts this season, but we

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Speaker 1: have to consider they were against the Commanders and Patriots,

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Speaker 1: who both have very good defensive lines, you know, So

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Speaker 1: that's that's I think that's the main reason Ellinger struggled.

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Speaker 1: But he has a much much softer matchup against the

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Speaker 1: Texans this week. And Ellinger is someone who looked great

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Speaker 1: in preseason. So this game, this meaningless game between the

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Speaker 1: Colts and Texans, is essentially a preseason game, so I

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Speaker 1: think he will thrive with nothing online here, and the

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Speaker 1: Texans could lock up the number one overall pick with

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Speaker 1: the loss. So I'm pretty high on Ellinger here in DFS.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And I was

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Speaker 2: laughing there as well, because you know, the Indianapolis Coults

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Speaker 2: have been one of our luck ranking darlings that we

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Speaker 2: have bet on a lot. But they're going up against

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Speaker 2: another luck ranking team, the most unlucky team in the

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Speaker 2: NFL Parer luck rankings, the Houston Texans. So no luck

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Speaker 2: ranking edge this week for that game. All right, Sean,

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Speaker 2: thank you for that. And who are you low on

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Speaker 2: at the quarterback position this week?

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Speaker 1: So I'm low on Dak Prescott against the Commanders. He's

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Speaker 1: my QB ten. The consensus is QB eight but you know,

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Speaker 1: he does have a pretty low floor this week. You know,

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Speaker 1: if the Cowboys win and the Eagles win, it really

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Speaker 1: doesn't do much good. So I think the Cowboys will

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Speaker 1: do some scoreboard watching. If the Eagles get up big

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Speaker 1: against the Giants, I mean, it would make sense for

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys to pull some of the stars, especially Dak

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Speaker 1: considering he's dealing with a hyper extended knee injury. It

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Speaker 1: is Mike McCarthy, though, so there's a good chance he

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Speaker 1: just leaves him out there for all four quarters no

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Speaker 1: matter what. He was still pounding Zeke up fourteen late

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Speaker 1: last week against the Titans, So this is Mike McCarthy.

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Speaker 1: But this could be an interesting live player prop for

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Speaker 1: us to watch because it could be correlated with the

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Speaker 1: score of another game. So if the Eagles get up big,

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Speaker 1: you know, and they're still floating a dack passing out

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Speaker 1: a prop at like two forty or something like that,

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Speaker 1: I would consider hammering the under because I think there

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Speaker 1: is a likelihood or a potential likelihood of getting him

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Speaker 1: pulled late. So while he's still in my top ten

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Speaker 1: to start the week, he does have a much lower floor.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense and as host

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Speaker 2: of our bed what Happens Live, I think that's a

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Speaker 2: great angle there to find, you know, maybe a live

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Speaker 2: under on Dak Prescott as you mentioned on the flip

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Speaker 2: side of the ball there. Actually, you know, the Washington

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Speaker 2: Commanders did announce they are starting rookie quarterback Sam Howell

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Speaker 2: this week. Real quick, Where is he in your rankings?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so he's my QB twenty nine, and I like him.

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Speaker 1: I think talking about other quarterbacks that have just burned

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Speaker 1: us all year long, Heinike and Carson Wentz just haven't

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Speaker 1: been it. And Sam Howell he looked really good in preseason.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why they didn't send him out there sooner,

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Speaker 1: but I think he has a good game here. He

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Speaker 1: has some sneaky rushing upside. So while it is a

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Speaker 1: tougher matchup against the Cowboys, they should just let him

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Speaker 1: sling it. There's nothing to lose here. Maybe Ron Rivera

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Speaker 1: does know that they can't make the playoffs now and

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Speaker 1: they just let Hell air it out, let him use

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Speaker 1: his legs. So I think he's sneaky. So he's my

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Speaker 1: QB twenty nine, But he has a much higher higher

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Speaker 1: ceiling than guys in this range.

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Speaker 2: I like it. I like it all right. So let's

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Speaker 2: move on to the running back position. Sean, give us

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Speaker 2: your top five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I got Christian McCaffrey, Derrick, Henry Travis, ETN,

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Speaker 1: Kenneth Walker, and Alvin Kamara my top five. But with Kamara,

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Speaker 1: you know, he's a little bit dicey, but he does

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Speaker 1: make it inside my top five.

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Speaker 2: Just barely sneak it into that top five this week,

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Speaker 2: Alvin Kamara. All right, Sean, which running backs are you

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Speaker 2: especially high on this week?

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Speaker 1: So I am. I am super high on Tyler Algier

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Speaker 1: right now. He's my RB thirteen and the consensus has

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Speaker 1: them RB twenty one. But this is a game where

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay will absolutely be resting their starters. The Falcons

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Speaker 1: are six and a half point home favorites, so that

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Speaker 1: just goes to show that the market's anticipating the Buccaneers

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Speaker 1: to rest most of their starters. And Algier is one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards shy of one thousand rushing yards on the season,

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Speaker 1: so this is a situation where I could see him

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Speaker 1: and the Falcons sort of go out of their way

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Speaker 1: to get him there in his rookie season, and certainly

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Speaker 1: the game script and matchup should allow for that, so

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Speaker 1: I would look out for his player props as well.

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Speaker 1: They could be in the low seventies. But this is

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Speaker 1: a situation where I think they will want to get

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Speaker 1: him to one hundred yards. So he has a ton

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Speaker 1: of upside here. Love him in the spot. And the

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Speaker 1: other running back I love is Kenneth Walker. He's my

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Speaker 1: RB four, the consensus RB seven. But this is a

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Speaker 1: must win game for Seattle. They're six and a half

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Speaker 1: point home favorites. Walker's sixty four yards shy of a thousand.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna have to do much to

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Speaker 1: get him there, but based on the situation, based on

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Speaker 1: the matchup, he should absolutely get there. And it's it's

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Speaker 1: nice to have that sort of extra incentive to boot. Plus,

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Speaker 1: with Travis Homer out last week, Walker actually led the

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Speaker 1: backfield and routes run. So if Homer's out again this week,

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Speaker 1: that's just gonna give Walker even more upside based on

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Speaker 1: his potential receiving usage. So he is, you know, a

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Speaker 1: smash top five play this week for me.

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Speaker 2: There you go, I like it. What about the flip

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Speaker 2: side here? Which running backs are you maybe lower on

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Speaker 2: than the consensus?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? So he's my boy. But I'm low on Nick

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Speaker 1: Chubb here. He's my RB fifteen. The consensus still has

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Speaker 1: him as RB six, and you know, the Browns really

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Speaker 1: have nothing to play here but to be a spoiler

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Speaker 1: against their division rival, the Steelers. I don't think it

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Speaker 1: makes sense to give Chubb a full workload here. Again,

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Speaker 1: there's nothing to play for. They should be looking aheaded

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Speaker 1: next season. Keep Chubb healthy. Plus, the Steelers should have

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Speaker 1: plenty of success running the ball here. I think they're

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Speaker 1: gonna have a very run heavy game plan. And you know,

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Speaker 1: they've allowed the fourth fewest plays per game, so it's

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Speaker 1: a situation where the overall play volume for the Browns

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Speaker 1: could be pretty low here. So I view Chubb as

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Speaker 1: more of a you know, RB two option and a

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Speaker 1: game that's meaningless for the Browns as opposed to a

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Speaker 1: mid range RB one. And the other back I'm low

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Speaker 1: on is Ramandre Stevenson. He's my RB eighteen to begin

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Speaker 1: the week, and he's you know, seeing a ton of

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Speaker 1: usage with Damien Harris out for four games. But Damian

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Speaker 1: Harris return last week and he ate into Stevenson's workload

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Speaker 1: a lot more than I thought he would. He actually

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Speaker 1: out carried Stevenson nine to eight, But more importantly, Harris

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Speaker 1: ran around on thirty six percent of mac Shones dropbacks,

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Speaker 1: compared to Stevenson only had a fifty percent routes one rate.

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Speaker 1: That's actually his lowest rate since Week one. So in

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Speaker 1: what should be a trailing game script against the Bills,

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Speaker 1: it's definitely concerning that Harris is eating into his receiving

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Speaker 1: news is that much so Stevenson's more of a low

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Speaker 1: end RB two for me this week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, fifty seven percent snap rate for mondre Stevenson last week,

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Speaker 2: forty eight percent for Damian Harris. So definitely closing the

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Speaker 2: gap there. All right, We're gonna head over to wide receivers. Sean,

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Speaker 2: what are your top five wide receivers for week eighteen.

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Speaker 1: Uh, it's pretty standard, but I have Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase,

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Speaker 1: Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Ceedee Lamb.

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Speaker 2: That that sounds like a very very popular and common

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Speaker 2: top five right there. So outside of those top five,

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Speaker 2: who are you especially high on this week at the

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Speaker 2: wide receiver position.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so, for for the last time in the regular

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Speaker 1: season anyway, I'm high on Zay Jones. He's been a

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Speaker 1: guy that I've been high on since I want to say,

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Speaker 1: like Week two, but everybody knows he's a you know,

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Speaker 1: high end wide receiver three by now, but I especially

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Speaker 1: love him this week. He's my wide receiver twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: It's a must win, crucial game against the Titans, who

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Speaker 1: are a pass final defense, so I do think the

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Speaker 1: Jaguars are gonna have a pretty pass heavy game script,

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Speaker 1: even for a six and a half point home favorite.

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Speaker 1: Plus there's some incentives in play here. Zay Jones needs

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Speaker 1: two receptions to get to eighty. He gets a two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand dollars bonus for reaching eighty receptions,

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Speaker 1: so I think Lawrence will absolutely make sure he gets

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Speaker 1: those two catches. But more importantly, he needs ninety eight

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Speaker 1: yards to get to nine hundred, and he gets an

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Speaker 1: extra half million dollars to getting there. So now, in

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Speaker 1: these must win games, the incentives are a little bit

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Speaker 1: harder to force. But this is a game script where

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Speaker 1: I think that the Jags are going to absolutely be

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Speaker 1: airing it out, and Zay Jones will have that extra incentive,

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Speaker 1: you know, to clear one hundred yards here, So I

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Speaker 1: think he has one more big game to close the

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Speaker 1: season out with here, and the other guy is Chris

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Speaker 1: Olave against the Panthers. He's my wide receiver thirteen. The

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Speaker 1: consensus has him all the way down at wide receiver

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Speaker 1: twenty six. I just don't get that now. He returned

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Speaker 1: last week to but you know, a bit of a

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Speaker 1: quiet performance for him. He caught four passes for forty

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Speaker 1: two yards, didn't score a touchdown, but it was a

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Speaker 1: tougher matchup against you know, stingy Eagles secondary. Plus you know,

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Speaker 1: the Saints had a commanding lead for most of that game,

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Speaker 1: so they didn't have to throw much. I think Adulton

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Speaker 1: only threw for about two hundred and four yards. But

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Speaker 1: Alave returned with a ninety four percent routes run rate,

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Speaker 1: so he's seeing that massive usage. And the Panthers are

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Speaker 1: without jac Horns, so this is a pretty easy matchup

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Speaker 1: on paper. It's also a meaningless game, so you know,

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Speaker 1: the Saints have nothing to lose by airing it out.

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Speaker 1: So I think Olave bounces back with a pretty big

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Speaker 1: game here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that New Orleans Carolina matchup is one of our

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Speaker 2: luck ranking games this week. A luck ranking difference of

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Speaker 2: eleven between those two teams real quick. I wanted to

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Speaker 2: touch on that Jay Jones thing. You mentioned how Tennessee

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Speaker 2: is a pass funnel. They definitely are, and Zay Jones

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Speaker 2: lines up on the outside over two thirds of the time.

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Speaker 2: Tennessee much weaker on the outside and much weaker versus

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Speaker 2: the deep ball as well, So I think it goes

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Speaker 2: right towards your philosophy of airing it out there. Wide receivers,

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Speaker 2: which ones are you lower on this week than the consensus?

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Speaker 1: So I'm low on Jalen Waddle. He's my wide receiver

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Speaker 1: twenty six. The consensus has him wide receiver fifteen. To

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Speaker 1: be fair, anytime I faded Wattle this season, either betting

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Speaker 1: against him or saying I'm low on him, he has

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Speaker 1: absolutely proven me wrong. So take this with the grand AsSalt.

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Speaker 1: Obviously he's super talented, but it'll likely be Skyler Thompson

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Speaker 1: under center this week or Teddy Bridge Rider who's playing

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Speaker 1: with a broken pinky pinky finger on his throwing him.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how he's going to be able to play,

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Speaker 1: so I'm assuming it's going to be Skylar Thompson. So

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Speaker 1: Wattle's production should take a hit. He only has one

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Speaker 1: full game of Thompson so far against these very Jets,

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Speaker 1: and he only got three passes for twenty three yards.

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Speaker 1: So you know, I just don't see how you'd be

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Speaker 1: ranking him as a mid range wide receiver two. I

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Speaker 1: do view him more as a high end wide receiver

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Speaker 1: three here. Obviously, you know, if you want to bet

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Speaker 1: on talent, you can go with him in GPPs, but

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Speaker 1: I think overall we have to lower our projections for

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Speaker 1: him a bit. And then another talented receiver that I'm

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Speaker 1: low on is George Pickens against the Browns, He's my

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Speaker 1: wide receiver forty five now, despite being one of the

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Speaker 1: more talented young receivers in the game, I do view

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Speaker 1: him more as a type, you know, touchdown dependent wide

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Speaker 1: receiver four, especially in a spot like this where I

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Speaker 1: do think the Steelers will be a lot more run heavy,

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Speaker 1: probably a bit more conservative since it's a must win game.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they want Kenny Pickett throwing it deep

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Speaker 1: unless they absolutely have to. So that's going to impact

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Speaker 1: a player like Pickens, especially you know, the chances of

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Speaker 1: him having a ceiling game. So you know, we could

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Speaker 1: probably bank on three catches for thirty five yards maybe

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Speaker 1: a touchdown here, so that's why you know. I just

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Speaker 1: view him sort of a touchdown dependant wide receiver four here.

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Speaker 2: At least he gets some touchdowns occasionally this year, and

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Speaker 2: like his counterpart.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, especially Deontay Johnson, it's.

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Speaker 2: Coming exactly, so that will wrap up the wide receiver position.

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Speaker 2: Let's move over to tight ends. I'm gonna guess who

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Speaker 2: I know your number one is, but give us your

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Speaker 2: full top five.

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Speaker 1: I bet you won't guess who my number two is, though,

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Speaker 1: So I have Travis Kelcey number one, and then you know,

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Speaker 1: I guess who number two is.

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Speaker 2: No, I don't want to guess.

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Speaker 1: It's your boy, Taysom Hill. Oh Man, Yeah, Taysom Hill. Baby,

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Speaker 1: how could you not have him in your top two

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Speaker 1: this week? But George Kittle, Pat Fryarmuth and TJ. Howkinson

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Speaker 1: rounding up my top five?

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Speaker 2: I like it. I'm always up for a good Taysom

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Speaker 2: Hill game. So which tight ends are you high on

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Speaker 2: this weekend? I guess Taysom's one of those.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, I'm obviously high on Taysum just he has

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Speaker 1: the widest range of outcomes of any titand we've ever

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Speaker 1: seen in fantasy. So I'm always a little bit higher

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Speaker 1: on him because of that. But the titand I'm especially

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Speaker 1: high on this week is Pat Fryarmuth against the Browns.

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Speaker 1: He's my tight end four. The consensus has him tight

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Speaker 1: end seven, and his underline usage just all over the place.

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Speaker 1: From weeks thirteen to fifteen, I really couldn't figure out

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Speaker 1: what was going on there. However, the past couple of games,

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Speaker 1: it's it's been back to the elite levels. You know,

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Speaker 1: he's averaging a ninety percent routes run rate, he's being

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Speaker 1: targeted on twenty one percent of his routes. Plus, like

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Speaker 1: I said with George Pitkins, I think this is going

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Speaker 1: to be a pretty conservative game plan for the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: So it would make sense for you know, a lower

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Speaker 1: aid hop player like Firemouth he has an eight out

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Speaker 1: of eight point four yards on the season to see

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Speaker 1: an increase in target share in this game. So I'm

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Speaker 1: super high on Firemouth this week. Like I said, he's

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Speaker 1: inside my top five.

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Speaker 2: There you go, Any tight ends you are lower on

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Speaker 2: this week?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I hate to say it, but I'm low on

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Speaker 1: Dallas Goddard. He's my tight end fourteen right now. The

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Speaker 1: consensus has him tight end seven. He's been fairly quiet.

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Speaker 1: In his two games back, He's only averaging three catches

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Speaker 1: for fifty six yards, despite Gardner Minshew averaging three hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifteen yards in those two games. So with Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hurts back, you know, the overall passing volume is going

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Speaker 1: to go down of course, Plus the Eagles are going

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Speaker 1: to be more run heavy, and again they're fourteen point favorites,

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Speaker 1: so I just don't know how Goddard's going to get

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Speaker 1: here without a touchdown. So, you know, while I love

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Speaker 1: the talent, unfortunately I having more as a high end

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Speaker 1: tight end two this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's interesting because this could be a

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Speaker 2: spot where maybe rankers are ranking them a little bit

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Speaker 2: higher just because of the matchup, because the New York

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Speaker 2: Giants are thirty second in defensive DVA passes to the

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Speaker 2: tight end position. But it makes a lot of sense

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Speaker 2: that they're going to be much more run heavy, and

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Speaker 2: you know, obviously Jalen Hurts fees coming back, that's going

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Speaker 2: to be the big driver for that and a big favorite.

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Speaker 2: It makes sense to be lower than the consensus of

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Speaker 2: everybody else is ranking them up because of that specific matchup.

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Speaker 2: Any other final thoughts before we wrap it up on

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Speaker 2: Week eighteen. I know Week eighteen is always a bit

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Speaker 2: of a doozy with all the different situations.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, just I mean just paying attention to the news

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Speaker 1: some of these situations where like the Vikings might rest players,

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys might rest players. Just keep an eye on those,

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Speaker 1: and like I hinted out with Zay Jones, keep an

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Speaker 1: eye on any other incentives that we're able to dig up,

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Speaker 1: especially in these meeting less games, milestones things like that,

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Speaker 1: like someone like DJ Moore needs one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: two yards hit a thousand, look out for things like that.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to player props, I'll have more on that.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be doing a lot of digging on

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Speaker 1: that next couple of days. But this is the week

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Speaker 1: where those definitely come into play when it comes to

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Speaker 1: DFS or player props.

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Speaker 2: Alrighty, that'll do it for our Week eighteen NFL Player

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Speaker 2: Projections episode of the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 2: full fantasy preview episode out now over on the Fantasy

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Speaker 2: Network Podcast, which should drop tomorrow morning as scheduled, even

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00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 2: with Chris being sick. So thanks everyone for listening, good

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Speaker 2: luck this weekend, and we'll see you back here next

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