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Speaker 1: Friday edition of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 1: on the satellite radio and on YouTube. You know the
Speaker 1: drill search. Bloomberg Business News Live will meet you here
Speaker 1: in the studio as soon as you log in. With
Speaker 1: a lot to talk about here, guess it could be
Speaker 1: a newsy weekend on this Friday, the thirteenth. We hope
Speaker 1: for a lucky deal here to emerge this weekend. House
Speaker 1: and Senate leaders they say they're coming close to a
Speaker 1: stopgap that'll bring us into either February or March. Sarah
Speaker 1: Chamberlain last evening interesting saying is looking more like February.
Speaker 1: The question is what we will get for disaster relief funding,
Speaker 1: and that appears to be the reason why we don't
Speaker 1: have a deal yet. Could be beginning of next week
Speaker 1: they'll kick the can and then we'll have a big
Speaker 1: fight early next year. But I have a lot of things,
Speaker 1: including this that I want to talk about with Terry Haynes.
Speaker 1: We're at a very important inflection moment right now. And
Speaker 1: the latest note from Terry, he's a poet, you know,
Speaker 1: this is why we like to have him on, refers
Speaker 1: to the bonfire of the regulatory vanities that's taking place
Speaker 1: here as part of the transition that we talk about
Speaker 1: every day. He is the founder of Pangaea Policy. Terry Haynes,
Speaker 1: Good Friday. It's good to see you. This is lucky, right,
Speaker 1: Thirteen's lucky for you.
Speaker 3: I don't know, you know, I'm personally agnostic on it
Speaker 3: in my life anyway, but you know that one size
Speaker 3: fits all right hopefully.
Speaker 1: So yeah, good, Yeah, I will my you know, I
Speaker 1: feel like it's been a good day so far. There
Speaker 1: was no traffic. I got out of bed realized it
Speaker 1: was Friday the thirteenth, and that the government was set
Speaker 1: to shut down a week from now. Are we going
Speaker 1: to sleep walk into a sh shut down, Terry? Or
Speaker 1: they're going to get this done the next couple of days.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think they get this done. You know, as
Speaker 3: you pointed out at the top, they're pushing around on
Speaker 3: disaster funding. Likely a couple of other things, but you know,
Speaker 3: the bottom line is it's in no one's political interest
Speaker 3: to have a shutdown over Christmas, and so they're very
Speaker 3: very likely not to do it. So I think at
Speaker 3: least we won't have to talk about that much longer.
Speaker 1: Well, there's a neutering that's about to take place, as
Speaker 1: I read in your note to clients, the immediate bonfire
Speaker 1: of the regulatory vanities. You say to make regulators neutering
Speaker 1: on January twentieth, an immediate markets positive economic boost. This
Speaker 1: is largely why Wall Street has been so excited about
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, because we can, right, we can debate, and
Speaker 1: they've got new numbers out here from Miya mcguinness's group
Speaker 1: showing that the tax cuts might actually mean very little
Speaker 1: economic growth in the end. But the idea of cutting
Speaker 1: all this red tape and eliminating some agencies, terry, is
Speaker 1: what has the market in a ladder here, right?
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, a lot of it, you know. And uh,
Speaker 3: you know I wrote that, uh recently, and the Wall
Speaker 3: Street Journal chimed in on it about a day later,
Speaker 3: very very similarly, if not as poetically. But the uh
Speaker 3: you know, yeah, they markets get way over their skis
Speaker 3: on deregulation. I always you know, and and I always
Speaker 3: cautioned them to to to too have some have some
Speaker 3: realistic expectations. How about that? Uh, you know, the whole
Speaker 3: doge thing is is you know, is largely a mirage.
Speaker 3: Nothing against the people pushing it.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 3: As I've said to you on earlier programs, I think
Speaker 3: I'm I'm in favor of half of what Musk and
Speaker 3: Ramaswami want to do. And I don't even know what
Speaker 3: it is yet. I mean, that's you know, but that's
Speaker 3: how you know, kind of that's how constipated Washington is.
Speaker 3: So I'm, uh, you know, my fourth you know, generally speaking,
Speaker 3: but they don't have any authority to do it. The
Speaker 3: people and the people that are going to do it,
Speaker 3: I think in financial services and a variety of other
Speaker 3: places are you know, if they're focused on efficiencies, but
Speaker 3: they're they're focused at root on not wanting to have
Speaker 3: too much overlapping regulation. And you know that's that's a
Speaker 3: good thing.
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting when we talk about, you know, the
Speaker 1: idea of eliminating red tape and creating growth not lost
Speaker 1: on me, by the way. Terry. When Donald Trump was
Speaker 1: asked on the other network yesterday at the New York
Speaker 1: Stock Exchange whether people should start buying right now. He
Speaker 1: did not say yes. He said, I'm not going to
Speaker 1: say that this market might tip lower because we have
Speaker 1: been witnessing quite a melt up here. But the Committee
Speaker 1: for a Responsible Federal Budget is out with a new
Speaker 1: number crunch here, and they find that extending the Trump
Speaker 1: tax cuts set to expire next year may not boost
Speaker 1: the economy as much as promised. You already indicated the
Speaker 1: markets may be over their skis a little bit. What
Speaker 1: does that mean come the middle of twenty twenty five,
Speaker 1: if the market keeps rocking here in a new Trump administration.
Speaker 3: Well, my advice really is twofold. One is that is
Speaker 3: that economists and others tend to look at this stuff
Speaker 3: in a very siloed sort of way. Whereas if you're
Speaker 3: Trump or the Trump people, or or senior members of
Speaker 3: Congress for that matter, they're not going to look at
Speaker 3: it in a siloed sort of way. They're going to
Speaker 3: look at it as where do tax cuts fit in with,
Speaker 3: you know, the other pro growth aspects of what we
Speaker 3: you know, what we have planned, whether it be deregulation,
Speaker 3: whether the President wants to put some tariffs in, you know,
Speaker 3: regardless of how that goes, and then you've got a
Speaker 3: variety of other overlays that are going to make that
Speaker 3: decision not instantaneous on January the twentieth. The first one is,
Speaker 3: you know what we do about the debt ceiling, the
Speaker 3: debt limit that that'll be important because I mean, that'll
Speaker 3: get done, but it'll be there'll be a lot of brinksmanship,
Speaker 3: but it'll give you an idea of what the appetite
Speaker 3: for of the Congress is and what the administration is
Speaker 3: for additional debt and deficit, So you know that'll be important.
Speaker 3: Then Trump has to put a budget together, and then
Speaker 3: most importantly for the tax cuts, what ends up having
Speaker 3: to happen is a decision that I think really gets
Speaker 3: made in the Senate about how much deficit they want
Speaker 3: to incur. The last time, you know, when I was
Speaker 3: doing this in a prior life, I was working with
Speaker 3: a pretty prominent economist and we were going to do
Speaker 3: a note right after the twenty sixteen election what to
Speaker 3: expect on tax cuts, And what I said to the
Speaker 3: economist is, Okay, how much more? How much more deficit
Speaker 3: can we incur if we get the corporate rate down
Speaker 3: to twenty percent. And he came back and said, well,
Speaker 3: you know, that's a trillion and a half. Now, that
Speaker 3: sounds like a lot, but trillion and a half over
Speaker 3: ten years is you know, is you know back then
Speaker 3: was thought to be doable, and you know that's where
Speaker 3: it ended up. I mean, that was my prediction and
Speaker 3: that's where it ended up. But there's a lot of
Speaker 3: different overlay this time, whether it be the appetite of
Speaker 3: the market for this stuff, what the tariffs are going
Speaker 3: to look like, what the needs of the Defense Department
Speaker 3: are like, because that's those budgets are going to get
Speaker 3: raised in response to geopolitics, all these things very different
Speaker 3: than twenty seventeen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we could see our first trillion dollar defense budget,
Speaker 1: I suspect in the year ahead if we can actually
Speaker 1: get to regular order here you talk about the House,
Speaker 1: the way Congress might get along with this whole Trump
Speaker 1: approach when it comes to economic issues. We have a
Speaker 1: new chair of the House Financial Services Committee. It's French Hill, who,
Speaker 1: of course our viewers and listeners know quite well from
Speaker 1: a long conversation that the congressman has been having with
Speaker 1: this network. It's been brought to my attention. I always
Speaker 1: learned something new about Terry Hayes every time you come on. Terry,
Speaker 1: you basically invented the Financial Services Committee. And I wonder,
Speaker 1: with your long view, and it's relatively recent history, what
Speaker 1: you think French Hill brings to that panel. You've got,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of a Reagan era Republican here is
Speaker 1: going to be interfacing with a Trump White House.
Speaker 3: The really important thing to know about mister Hill, I
Speaker 3: think is that he's really the first one since my
Speaker 3: old boss, Congressman Mike Oxley, who really focused on immediate
Speaker 3: impact to and on markets. You know, what ends up
Speaker 3: happening in Washington so much as you well know, is
Speaker 3: that you know, regulators in Congress alike get kind of
Speaker 3: caught up in the in regulatory capture issues. Everybody didthers
Speaker 3: around about regulation and whatnot, and few people really start
Speaker 3: at the start where the beginning should be, which is
Speaker 3: focusing on the economic impacts. And I think that's really
Speaker 3: what you get out of That's really fundamentally, I think
Speaker 3: what you get out of Hill. It's been touted a
Speaker 3: lot that his private sector experience in a bank helped
Speaker 3: him get the chairmanship. I'm sure that's true. But you
Speaker 3: know where I think he's going to excel and really
Speaker 3: differentiate himself is he's really going to focus on market
Speaker 3: impacts as well as just the the regulatory overkill. And
Speaker 3: that's important and that's a big positive. And you know,
Speaker 3: and kudos to you and others on this network for
Speaker 3: having the foresight to see that. You know that he
Speaker 3: should be should be talked with quite a lot, and
Speaker 3: now you've got a window into his thought process that
Speaker 3: nobody else really has.
Speaker 1: Does it tell us realizing he's sensitive to markets just
Speaker 1: in our final moment here that Steve Scalice doesn't necessarily
Speaker 1: have the last word on everything in the US House.
Speaker 3: You know, the Steering Committee is the Steering Committee is
Speaker 3: very very important, and you have to balance regional regional
Speaker 3: aspirations and you have to balance the aspirations for the committee.
Speaker 3: What I saw from what I saw from the Steering
Speaker 3: Committee in Picking Hill really is they want to return
Speaker 3: that committee, the Financial Services Committee, to real prominence. And
Speaker 3: so that's good news for the industry too.
Speaker 1: Fascinating. Well, we thank Terry Haynes for the House Financial
Speaker 1: Services Committee. How about that? He also, of course founded
Speaker 1: Pangaea policy from where he talks to us right now, Terry,
Speaker 1: Great to see you, Happy Friday, have a great weekend.
Speaker 1: Another frequent voice here for a good reason. On Bloomberg, you're.
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Speaker 1: You've made it to the threshold of the weekend and
Speaker 1: some fascinating stories to talk about here is we anticipate
Speaker 1: the arrival of Donald Trump on January twentieth in Washington.
Speaker 1: You have got the Army Navy game this weekend that
Speaker 1: we'll be talking about that a lot. At the beginning
Speaker 1: of next week. Ron DeSantis is going right. Are we
Speaker 1: still sure why Speaker Mike Johnson's going to be there too?
Speaker 1: Is he takes a little bit of advice from the
Speaker 1: President on the sequencing of border versus tax cuts and
Speaker 1: the agenda for the new Congress. But I'll tell you
Speaker 1: what high tech is not waiting around either. The list
Speaker 1: of names making pilgrimage tomorrow. Lago meeting Donald Trump at
Speaker 1: events investing in his inaugural is really starting to add up.
Speaker 1: We learned just yesterday Jeff Bezos will be meeting with
Speaker 1: Donald Trump next week. I see here now Google CEO
Speaker 1: Sundar Pichai scheduled for a sit down on Thursday. Of course,
Speaker 1: you know the big thing at the NYSE yesterday the
Speaker 1: Person of the Year Time magazine, owned by the CEO
Speaker 1: of Salesforce, Mark Benioff. You might not have known this,
Speaker 1: but there's a lot more where this came from. Enter
Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg, right, donating a million dollars. Sam Altman another
Speaker 1: million dollars. You kind of have to give I guess
Speaker 1: a million does This is going to be a heck
Speaker 1: of an inaugural. So we thought we would have a
Speaker 1: conversation here with a couple of people right in the
Speaker 1: middle of this story. One of them you know pretty
Speaker 1: often from this program, Mike Sheppard, who here in Washington
Speaker 1: covers the intersection of technology and politics. Were also joined
Speaker 1: by Max Chafkin, Bloomberg BusinessWeek columnists and gentlemen. It's great
Speaker 1: to see you both. Thanks for being here on this Friday.
Speaker 1: Mike I'll start with you on the remarkable turn here.
Speaker 1: We talk about how many from the center and even
Speaker 1: from the left are kind of given Donald Trump a chance,
Speaker 1: saying nice things, maybe propping up some of his cabinet picks,
Speaker 1: helping them get to hearings. Big Tech is doing its
Speaker 1: own version of this. Huh, well, it really is.
Speaker 5: It is a turn about from what we saw back
Speaker 5: in the first administration, when Tech really kept Trump largely
Speaker 5: at arm's length. One of the few CEOs who really
Speaker 5: had that kind of productive working relationship with Trump when
Speaker 5: we think back, was Tim Cook, and he had a
Speaker 5: whole different set of stakes at hand. And remember this
Speaker 5: is when Donald Trump was heating up a trade war
Speaker 5: with China. There was the risk of US tariffs on
Speaker 5: Chinese goods and then retaliation by China against American products,
Speaker 5: and perhaps these days around the world, Apple is one
Speaker 5: of the most American branded products. So at the time
Speaker 5: Tim Cook really wanted to make sure that there was
Speaker 5: some sort of protection for his company. He managed to
Speaker 5: secure it this time around the CEOs of these other companies,
Speaker 5: including Amazon dot Com and the founder It's not just
Speaker 5: Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, but also Andy Jassey
Speaker 5: has also been making his own outreaches Amazon CEO too,
Speaker 5: the incoming Trump team and likewise, you know, we saw
Speaker 5: Mark Zuckerberg having dinner last month with Trump at Mar
Speaker 5: A Lago. It is not only right a passage, but
Speaker 5: a necessary one. These companies are all facing some degree
Speaker 5: of antitrust scrutiny. There is regulatory overhang that they're worried about,
Speaker 5: and they're hoping that Trump, who's coming to office with
Speaker 5: this promise of relief for corporate America, that he might
Speaker 5: bring it for them too.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Max Chafkin in New York. These are all big
Speaker 1: personalities with big pocketbooks. We're talking about are they being
Speaker 1: motivated by fear or opportunity or both?
Speaker 6: I think it's both. And you know, you look back,
Speaker 6: remember back to twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, You did see
Speaker 6: efforts by folks like Bezos and even Zuckerberg to court Trump.
Speaker 6: Back then, they just were not as loud about it,
Speaker 6: and we didn't see these big monetary donations, and you know,
Speaker 6: it just wasn't as prominent or out in the open
Speaker 6: or maybe even you know, brazen if you're taking the
Speaker 6: point of view of a critic that said, you know,
Speaker 6: the as Mike says, you have the potential of FTC
Speaker 6: investigations for both Amazon and Facebook, and in the case
Speaker 6: of Sam Altman, you have this looming threat of AI regulation.
Speaker 6: And not only that, but Elon Musk is a who's
Speaker 6: a competitor of Sam Altman, and AI is a key
Speaker 6: advisor to the president elect.
Speaker 1: What do you make of the money here, Mike, you
Speaker 1: covered politics before you entered the technology space for some time.
Speaker 1: Altman a million, Zuckerberg a million, Bezos a million. Tell
Speaker 1: our audience where this money's going.
Speaker 5: Well, this is not unusual to see big companies making
Speaker 5: donations and contributions to the inaugural efforts, the inaugural committees.
Speaker 5: This is something we've seen over the years.
Speaker 1: It sounds weird to people, though they're but this isn't
Speaker 1: a campaign. They're donating. So this is money for parties.
Speaker 5: It is to the event. It's for the parties. It's
Speaker 5: to help the extravaganza that we're going to see in
Speaker 5: just a matter of weeks if you think about it less,
Speaker 5: in about a month from now, we're going to be
Speaker 5: really in the thick of it, and that helps to
Speaker 5: defray some of the costs and maybe add a little
Speaker 5: bit of the pomp and circumstance too. And what's interesting
Speaker 5: on the tech side is just how much, as Max
Speaker 5: was saying, how open they are about it, and how
Speaker 5: much they have just hopped aboard this bamwagon of corporate
Speaker 5: support for an otherwise political event that other industries have
Speaker 5: more or less been hipped to. But tech has always
Speaker 5: been a little bit more arm's length about it. Not
Speaker 5: so much anymore.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the potential. I don't know if I should
Speaker 1: call them conflicts of interest here, Max and Elon Musk
Speaker 1: has his own version actually running a government contractor in
Speaker 1: SpaceX and some of his business dealings with the federal government.
Speaker 1: But what you know, a lot of people see stories
Speaker 1: like this and leg I thought we were going to
Speaker 1: drain the swamp. You're given a million dollars for good
Speaker 1: treatment once the president elect takes office, aren't you. I
Speaker 1: mean this tension.
Speaker 6: We saw this tension during the last Trump presidency, and
Speaker 6: it's going to be there this time. You know, I
Speaker 6: think from the point of view of Trump and his supporters,
Speaker 6: the swamp is government workers, right, It's not in government agencies.
Speaker 6: It's not necessarily billionaires. Who are you know, trying to
Speaker 6: donate money in the hopes of influencing policy. That said,
Speaker 6: of course the left, I mean, they are already talking
Speaker 6: about this. This is going to be a huge issue.
Speaker 6: And just to underline something that sort of came up earlier,
Speaker 6: it's not just that Mark Zuckerberg is threatened with an
Speaker 6: FTC inquiry. Trump was on the campaign trail saying he
Speaker 6: was going to throw Mark Zuckerberg in jail. And and
Speaker 6: you know, obviously that that sounds like rhetoric, right, especially
Speaker 6: coming from someone like Trump, but it really does just
Speaker 6: show that these guys feel, you know, under threat, under
Speaker 6: serious threat to their businesses. And and then there's also
Speaker 6: the sense that Trump is more flexible, maybe more flexible
Speaker 6: than than Biden or Harris would have been if she
Speaker 6: had been elected, in terms of being willing to sort
Speaker 6: of listen to the business world and and and make
Speaker 6: policy that they're going to be happy about.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So, well, gosh, if this is stay out of
Speaker 1: jail money for Mark Zuckerberg, is it also take care
Speaker 1: of TikTok?
Speaker 5: Well, Mark Zuckerberg, take care of TikTok and take care
Speaker 5: of other issues too.
Speaker 1: Where Trump on TikTok, Now we differ from.
Speaker 5: Don't we don't really know what his opinion is as
Speaker 5: of like five minutes ago. We do know from the
Speaker 5: campaign that he had actually reversed his position and says
Speaker 5: he no longer thinks that a ban of the of
Speaker 5: the app is justified.
Speaker 1: Remember his worry was that would help Zuckerberg. Now they're hanging.
Speaker 5: Out, So now how does that how does that change?
Speaker 5: And it's a and it will be fascinating to see
Speaker 5: once we get a final outcome and court on TikTok,
Speaker 5: where he falls and whether you know, the whole Zuckerberg
Speaker 5: relationship question, you know, pivots him in a different direction.
Speaker 5: I wanted to touch on one point that Max was making earlier,
Speaker 5: and that is just about how they feel the need
Speaker 5: to perhaps avoid any possible retribution by Trump or his
Speaker 5: you know, the people he's designating for some of these
Speaker 5: big agencies, including the FBI. What's interesting also is how
Speaker 5: accessible or much more accessible Trump can be and can
Speaker 5: make himself to people empower in the business world. And
Speaker 5: so if you're a billionaire and you drop your car
Speaker 5: to the front door of mar A Lago, it is
Speaker 5: not very long before they let you in. And he
Speaker 5: is really eager to make those relations relationships work and
Speaker 5: flourish it, you know, for his favor, but he also
Speaker 5: wants to hear what other business people are doing, and
Speaker 5: you know, as you said on TikTok, perhaps try to
Speaker 5: help them out if they can.
Speaker 1: What do you make of the evolution on TikTok, Max,
Speaker 1: What will the Trump administration mean for this platform?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, Trump sort of came sort of switched
Speaker 6: his position on TikTok roughly around the same time that
Speaker 6: he got a big donation from jeff Yass who is
Speaker 6: the runs Susquehanna Capital, which has an investment in TikTok.
Speaker 6: That you know, it felt like he was at that
Speaker 6: time really trying to adopt kind of business friendly positions.
Speaker 6: Of course, since then there are all these other donors,
Speaker 6: maybe donors who don't care as much about whether TikTok
Speaker 6: is banned or not, or whether it gets sold to
Speaker 6: another company. I do think that Zuckerberg part of his
Speaker 6: motivation here. Part of it is the sec sorry, is
Speaker 6: the FTC. Part of it is the point that Mike
Speaker 6: is making about just sort of general accessibility, And part
Speaker 6: of it, yeah, is TikTok's That's the big competitor Facebook,
Speaker 6: and if it is harmed in some way or hampered
Speaker 6: or banned or what have you, that is going to
Speaker 6: be good news for Zuckerberg. The other thing, the other
Speaker 6: point I'll make is, at the same time this is happening,
Speaker 6: Trump has appointed a head of Anti Trust at the DOJ,
Speaker 6: Gail Salter, who's expected to be to kind of continue
Speaker 6: these investigations. These cases that the dj has brought against
Speaker 6: Google and Apple. Now those are both Facebook competitors. So
Speaker 6: right now, like Zuckerberg is getting a lot of what
Speaker 6: he would have wanted from this presidency, and so it
Speaker 6: sort of makes sense that he's making a donation.
Speaker 1: Can you imagine in our last minute here, and I
Speaker 1: think you can, in the early stages of the Trump administration,
Speaker 1: a big event in the auditorium in the Executive Office
Speaker 1: building across the driveway from the White House, with all
Speaker 1: of these characters around a round table with Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: Very easily it's a kind of event he liked to
Speaker 5: convene during his first term, and I would easily see
Speaker 5: that taking place.
Speaker 1: They all want to be on good terms with each other,
Speaker 1: it sounds.
Speaker 5: Like it does. Though they do compete with each other.
Speaker 5: There is some interest in you know, they want to
Speaker 5: have a common understand when it comes to policy, and
Speaker 5: especially when it comes to politics.
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, boy, that's going to be something. I can
Speaker 1: just imagine the optics now. Max, it's great to have
Speaker 1: you in New York. Don't be a stranger. It's good
Speaker 1: to have you with us here. Bloomberg Business Week columnist
Speaker 1: Max Chafkin from world headquarters in New York. And of
Speaker 1: course shep with me here in Washington, Mike Shepard covering
Speaker 1: the intersection of politics and technology. His actual title, By
Speaker 1: the way, I always say this Senior Editor, Technology and
Speaker 1: Strategic Industries. That sounds more important. Mike. Thank you.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and round
Speaker 2: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 1: Just one week to go until the government runs out
Speaker 1: of money. The funding deadline the twentieth of December, and
Speaker 1: we're counting down. Ye're still without a plan. I'm Joe
Speaker 1: Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines and Washington. Thanks for being with
Speaker 1: us on the Friday edition of Balance of Power Friday
Speaker 1: the thirteenth, which means we've got a week until we
Speaker 1: run out of cash, right, So the question is when
Speaker 1: we get a plan. There's talk it emerges this weekend.
Speaker 1: It might even come out of the Army Navy gate
Speaker 1: if things happen properly legislating from the suite, Mike Johnson
Speaker 1: will be there. Yeah, supposedly in the presidential suite. It's
Speaker 1: about kicking the can, right, And you know, Sarah Chamberlain
Speaker 1: was interesting from the Republican Main Street Partnership on Balance
Speaker 1: of Power last evening, saying this might be shorter than
Speaker 1: some are suggesting. We'll be lucky maybe to get into
Speaker 1: February before there's another funding battle.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 7: Well, we have to consider, first of all, that by
Speaker 7: the time we get to late February or early March,
Speaker 7: which is what we're talking about here, the fiscal year
Speaker 7: that these appropriations we're supposed to address will be roughly
Speaker 7: halfway over. So even if we wrap this funding battle
Speaker 7: pretty soon, the next one is going to start. Keeping
Speaker 7: in mind, it's not just about deciding on a budget
Speaker 7: for this fiscal year and appropriating it to all of
Speaker 7: the different agencies and departments, it's also about raising the
Speaker 7: debt ceiling, trying to get a few one maybe two
Speaker 7: reconciliation packages passed with border energy and tax legislation. This
Speaker 7: is going to be a really heavy to do list
Speaker 7: right at the beginning of the one hundred and nineteenth Congress.
Speaker 7: Keeping in mind that the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson,
Speaker 7: is going to be working with a majority of what one.
Speaker 1: Be one by the time that happens. And so you're
Speaker 1: hearing people suggest there's no shutdown in the works in
Speaker 1: the next week, but in the first quarter of next
Speaker 1: year is when we could really be running into some trouble.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So let's get into this now with Rick Davis
Speaker 7: and Jeanie Shanzeno, our signature political panel. Rick, of course,
Speaker 7: republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, Genie a
Speaker 7: democratic strategist and Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for
Speaker 7: the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Rick, we talk
Speaker 7: all the time, multiple times a year about doing this
Speaker 7: song and dance all over again. We know the can
Speaker 7: is just going to get kicked down the road. They
Speaker 7: are choosing though, to kick it down the road to march. Well,
Speaker 7: it will be maybe two months after Donald Trump takes
Speaker 7: office with a lot he wants to accomplish in those
Speaker 7: first one hundred days. So how problematic is this particular
Speaker 7: kicking of the can going to be ultimately for the
Speaker 7: Republican majorities in Congress and the President?
Speaker 8: You know, I don't think it's going to be that
Speaker 8: big an issue on March fourteenth or whenever the new
Speaker 8: cr will expire, primarily because it's really in your rear
Speaker 8: view mirror at that point, as you pointed out, Kaylee,
Speaker 8: six months down the road, in a fiscal year that
Speaker 8: hadn't had a budget proved yet. So it is a
Speaker 8: little silly. But the reality is that most of the
Speaker 8: effort in Congress by then will be focused on the
Speaker 8: next funding year's budget, and all the appropriations activity, all
Speaker 8: the author is authorizing will be for the twenty twenty
Speaker 8: sixth budget. And so I do know that we've got
Speaker 8: more intensity in the Senate lined up. We've been talking
Speaker 8: all week about the five day work week in the
Speaker 8: United States Senate to really get things moving there, and
Speaker 8: I think that'll be matched to some degree by House tempo.
Speaker 8: And we've all been talking about the close margins of
Speaker 8: victory in the House and the Senate with Republicans in charge,
Speaker 8: and how much complicated, how much more complicated that'll make
Speaker 8: getting things passed. So that being said, yeah, I think
Speaker 8: as soon as they sign this CR before they get
Speaker 8: out before Christmas, that puts it in the review, Mayor
Speaker 8: that buys you as you point out three months and
Speaker 8: all of a sudden, you're focused on an entirely different
Speaker 8: set of numbers, new top lines, And I think it
Speaker 8: makes the reconciliation on twenty twenty four to twenty five
Speaker 8: really not that much more difficult, Genie.
Speaker 1: Some of the delay in crafting a short term solution
Speaker 1: here has been the request for disaster aid following the
Speaker 1: hurricanes that blew through the Southeast. Reporting now suggests tens
Speaker 1: of billions of dollars in disaster aid will be included.
Speaker 1: The White House and asked for almost one hundred billion.
Speaker 1: Knowing these are a lot of red states we're talking
Speaker 1: about here, when you're looking at North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida,
Speaker 1: and so forth, why the fight over the money?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think it's indicative of the fact
Speaker 9: that you do have a split in the House where
Speaker 9: you have obviously people who certainly most representatives, if not all,
Speaker 9: want to fund these emergencies. But there is an awful
Speaker 9: lot of concern about the spending levels and the debt
Speaker 9: and deficit. And since it's a Friday, I got to
Speaker 9: disagree with Rick there. This is a disaster for Republicans.
Speaker 9: There is no way that you move this to March
Speaker 9: or February. If it goes to February and then it's
Speaker 9: clean sailing from there, Let's not forget. There is zero
Speaker 9: room for the House to maneuver on this, and so
Speaker 9: they don't have the numbers. There's a possibility that within
Speaker 9: the first hundred days, when you have Donald Trump and
Speaker 9: Republicans rightly anxious to move forward a really really energetic
Speaker 9: and a full agenda, that you have more Democrats on
Speaker 9: that House floor than you have Republicans on a given day.
Speaker 9: And so the idea that this is going to be
Speaker 9: smoother sailing when we go forward is not the case.
Speaker 9: They will have to fight this out next year. And
Speaker 9: the problem for Donald Trump, and I suspect he may
Speaker 9: give Mike Johnson an earful on this this weekend, who knows,
Speaker 9: is the fact that he has an agenda that he
Speaker 9: has promised to the American public, and he is intent
Speaker 9: on living out that agenda, and you can bet if
Speaker 9: it doesn't get through, he's going to point the finger
Speaker 9: at Republicans in leadership for not pushing it through, because
Speaker 9: Democrats cannot be blamed because Republicans by January own Washington.
Speaker 7: D c Well to that exact point, Genie, we have
Speaker 7: seen Democrats in this one hundred and eighteenth Congress be
Speaker 7: the votes in the House to actually get a lot
Speaker 7: of things over the finish line. But they have been
Speaker 7: doing so knowing that the Senate and the White House
Speaker 7: were controlled by Democrats. That's not going to be the
Speaker 7: case now. So I do under if you think the
Speaker 7: Democrats are really going to play ball here at all,
Speaker 7: at least in the early days of the Trump administration,
Speaker 7: will there's still some degree of difference, but distance rather
Speaker 7: between what's taking place in the January to March period
Speaker 7: in the midterms in November of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think they absolutely will play ball. But playing
Speaker 9: ball means they will kick the ball and they will
Speaker 9: expect it to be kicked back. And so the question
Speaker 9: is what are they going to get from Nike Johnson, Kayley,
Speaker 9: I had to give you a sports you know, sports
Speaker 9: reference on a Friday.
Speaker 7: But once you appreciated Army Navy tomorrow go Navy.
Speaker 10: That's right.
Speaker 9: What are they going to get in return for their support?
Speaker 9: They are going to expect something. And just listening to
Speaker 9: Donald Trump yesterday on the stock exchange, corporate tax cuts
Speaker 9: down to fifteen percent, those are huge, huge numbers for corporations,
Speaker 9: the ten largest in the country. How are they going
Speaker 9: to make that work? Where are these cuts going to
Speaker 9: come from? And spending Democrats are in a position to say,
Speaker 9: you can't cut things that we hold important, and that
Speaker 9: means Mike Johnson, if he wants their support, he's going
Speaker 9: to have to deal with them. This is a really
Speaker 9: tough position for Mike Johnson, who I think has the
Speaker 9: toughest job in DC coming in January. And we thought
Speaker 9: the one hundred and eighteenth was tough, yes we did.
Speaker 1: But the interesting development there is that Mike Johnson appears
Speaker 1: to be here to stay. Rick Davis. That's changed a
Speaker 1: lot in the last six months or so, when obviously
Speaker 1: there was a little bit more concern about the veracity
Speaker 1: of the speaker following Mike Johnson's short tenure here, but
Speaker 1: he's really turned himself into a figure in the House
Speaker 1: in terms of a fundraiser and an organizer. Will that
Speaker 1: be challenged by having a majority of one.
Speaker 8: Not really, because the one is actually Donald Trump. That
Speaker 8: is the majority that he has to abide by. The
Speaker 8: reality is he was the most powerful man in Washington
Speaker 8: last year, aside from the President the United States. He
Speaker 8: was the leading Republican voice in the nation. He was
Speaker 8: the Speaker. It was the Speaker of the House, and
Speaker 8: nobody else had that kind of power. Now we are
Speaker 8: a hierarchical party. Republicans salute when the president is a Republican,
Speaker 8: and that's what's going to happen in the House of Representatives.
Speaker 8: You can't bake the cake the same ingredients that you
Speaker 8: had last year. This year, it's going to be different.
Speaker 8: When Donald Trump says I want this bill pass, you're
Speaker 8: going to have almost complete fealty from Republicans in the
Speaker 8: House and Senate to do that, at least in the
Speaker 8: first year or two. And so I really don't think
Speaker 8: that you can gloom and doom it the way it
Speaker 8: was for two years under the Biden administration. Because you know,
Speaker 8: Mike Johnson, a very inexperienced legislator, thrust into the speakership
Speaker 8: without any high cover. You know, he's gonna have plenty
Speaker 8: of high cover. Now he's going to salute whenever Donald
Speaker 8: Trump says this is the bill I want pass, and
Speaker 8: so will his coalition.
Speaker 7: So that's the current speaker. I'd like to ask you,
Speaker 7: as well, Jeannie, about a former speaker Speaker America, Nancy Pelosi.
Speaker 7: We learned today, while on a congressional delegation a trip
Speaker 7: to Europe, was hospitalized in Luxembourg after she sustained what
Speaker 7: was just described as an injury during an official engagement.
Speaker 7: We understand she's still working. We don't have further detail
Speaker 7: on what exactly the injury is or the severity of it.
Speaker 7: But keeping in mind here, the Congresswoman and Speaker America
Speaker 7: is eighty four years old, and this is just days
Speaker 7: after the eighty two year old outgoing Senate Minority Leader
Speaker 7: Mitch McConnell fell and also sustained injuries. What spotlight does
Speaker 7: this put on not only just the age of some
Speaker 7: of the most senior leaders in Washington, but whether or
Speaker 7: not they should still be in these positions at that age.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, you know, we wish and Nancy Pelosi well,
Speaker 9: like you said, we understand she's still working from the
Speaker 9: hospital where she's being checked out, and we hope she's okay.
Speaker 9: But I think we are seeing, just during this transition
Speaker 9: period for the administration, we are seeing a transition in Congress.
Speaker 9: To your point, we have seen a number of more
Speaker 9: senior both in age and in terms of their length
Speaker 9: of time in Congress on the Democratic side in particular,
Speaker 9: have stepped aside for their younger colleagues to take the
Speaker 9: reigns of power. And I think that's critically important because
Speaker 9: part of being a leader and part of being a
Speaker 9: party is that you make sure and both parties have this,
Speaker 9: you make sure that your bench of incoming people and
Speaker 9: leaders are strong and they can take the reins. Otherwise,
Speaker 9: you are the risk. If you have the power and
Speaker 9: something God forbid happens to you, you are the risk
Speaker 9: to the entire party. And so we've seen the Democrats
Speaker 9: in particular the last few weeks do that. Interestingly, Pelosi
Speaker 9: seems to have been fighting against Alexandria Ocasio Cortes for
Speaker 9: her ascension to the Oversight Committee. That said, we've seen
Speaker 9: a number of these transitions, and I think I think
Speaker 9: we're going to see more.
Speaker 1: Of course, it's hockeym Jeffery's leading the Democratic Conference in
Speaker 1: the House now, and Rick, he's going to be looking
Speaker 1: across the valley to the midterms for the next two years.
Speaker 1: How does he best position himself to win.
Speaker 8: Best position loyal opposition, raise enormous amounts of money. He'll
Speaker 8: be up against a fundraising juggernaut with the Republicans in
Speaker 8: the next two years. He's going to have to keep
Speaker 8: his eye on that, which means time away from the Chamber.
Speaker 8: But yeah, I mean, he's probably going to have the
Speaker 8: typical historical cycle on his side, so you know it
Speaker 8: should bode well for him. But he's got to be
Speaker 8: organized enough to do it. And right now you really
Speaker 8: have to wonder whether the Democrats can rally around his
Speaker 8: leadership in the party to help facilitate that, because it's
Speaker 8: pretty segmented and bifurcated right now.
Speaker 7: Quickly, Rick, the Army Navy game of course tomorrow. We
Speaker 7: understand there is quite a list of attendees. He was
Speaker 7: the most writing on their visits with Donald Trump. With
Speaker 7: the football game as the background. Here, Ron DeSantis, Mike Johnson,
Speaker 7: the speaker we've been talking about, or maybe Pete Hegseth
Speaker 7: if he decides to show.
Speaker 8: Yeah, there's a big debate going on in Congress about
Speaker 8: how to facilitate the first year of Donald Trump's legislative agenda.
Speaker 8: John Thune is saying the two step process split up
Speaker 8: things and pass them in parts and house ways and
Speaker 8: means Chairman is saying, I want one big package up
Speaker 8: or down vote. That could be the most important decision.
Speaker 8: It comes out at halftime.
Speaker 7: All right, Well, we'll be monitoring true social and I
Speaker 7: guess our television screens. Yeah, this is going to be
Speaker 7: like when Taylor Swift goes to exactly.
Speaker 1: They'll have a camera on the box the whole time.
Speaker 7: Yeah, all right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino our signature
Speaker 7: political panel. Thank you so much. I feel like I
Speaker 7: should go to Maryland tomorrow watch the game. I'm a
Speaker 7: Navy fan, you know, of.
Speaker 1: Course, But twelve hundred dollars will get you in, I
Speaker 1: think at this point.
Speaker 7: Right, Yeah, it's definitely a not cheap, but should be excited.
Speaker 1: Looks better on TV, especially when you're in the stadium.
Speaker 1: We're talking about beautiful landover Maryland. We better get out
Speaker 1: of here. Natasha Hall is on the way in next
Speaker 1: on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 1: As we keep our eyes on what's happening in the
Speaker 1: Middle East, where our Secretary of State is traveling right now.
Speaker 7: Yeah, Anthony Blinken is abroad, as is Jake Sullivan, the
Speaker 7: National Security Advisor. They're visiting this region. It was Blinkin
Speaker 7: today who was in both Jordan and then Turkey talking
Speaker 7: about not just the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas,
Speaker 7: but also of course Syria, as we are just barely
Speaker 7: a week out from the ousting of Syrian dictator Boscher
Speaker 7: Ala Sad, and that is something he was talking about
Speaker 7: with Airdowan and Turkey specifically because Turkey will have a
Speaker 7: role to play, presumably in what happens in Syria next.
Speaker 7: So we want to get into all of this and
Speaker 7: turn to Natasha Hall, who joins us from the Center
Speaker 7: for Strategic and International Studies, where she is a Senior
Speaker 7: Fellow at the Middle East Program. Welcome back to Bloomberg
Speaker 7: TV and Radio, Natasha. If we could focus on Syria first,
Speaker 7: As I said, it's been really only a matter of
Speaker 7: days since Asad fled to Russia. There's obviously efforts around
Speaker 7: a transitional government in place. How do you assess how
Speaker 7: it's gone so far since the rebels successfully got a sought.
Speaker 4: Out thank you for having me in this historic occasion,
Speaker 4: I would say, I mean, it's really been momentous to
Speaker 4: see a regime that has held on to power for
Speaker 4: so long, over half a century, and then throughout a
Speaker 4: thirteen year brutal civil war to really fall within the
Speaker 4: course of less than two weeks. So we're not so
Speaker 4: far out from it from the fall of us said
Speaker 4: and his refuge in Moscow, but certainly there's a lot
Speaker 4: of security in the region right now. A lot of
Speaker 4: people are nervous about what this might portend for the future,
Speaker 4: but Syrians are jubilant. They feel like today is just
Speaker 4: a day for the future that they never thought would
Speaker 4: be possible, frankly, and that it could potentially turn a
Speaker 4: positive leaf for a country that has been through through
Speaker 4: so much devastation. That said, the group that led the
Speaker 4: charge is Hayata Riersham, which is a designated terrorist organization.
Speaker 4: So many Syrians are also wary as well, but aware
Speaker 4: of all of the hard work that needs to happen
Speaker 4: to get to a better place that they had dreamed
Speaker 4: of for so long.
Speaker 1: So, Natasha, how long will it take and what will
Speaker 1: be the signs that you're looking for to see a
Speaker 1: government that the United States can in fact have a
Speaker 1: relationship with.
Speaker 4: I mean, that's that's a great question, and I think
Speaker 4: the next few weeks and months are really critical for
Speaker 4: many reasons. Within the tree itself, we want to see
Speaker 4: more positive signs from HTS. They have given reassurances to
Speaker 4: religious minorities, for example. They've kept government employees and their
Speaker 4: posts for the most part, so it's been relatively bloodless,
Speaker 4: which is great to see for a country that has
Speaker 4: suffered so much. But what we really need to see
Speaker 4: in a country like Syria that has been just economically
Speaker 4: devastated ninety percent of the population is under the poverty line,
Speaker 4: is we really need to see a rise in basic services,
Speaker 4: a rise in basic salaries. Your average government employee gets
Speaker 4: paid twenty five dollars a month, and we know with
Speaker 4: desperation breeds discontent, and discontent can lead to potential greater insecurity,
Speaker 4: in fighting and terrorism. So I think that the United
Speaker 4: States has a really positive role to play with the
Speaker 4: designation it has on HTS and its sanctions to be
Speaker 4: able to steer Syria towards a better future and hopefully
Speaker 4: a more hopeful one.
Speaker 7: It also raises the question, Natasha, of the role that
Speaker 7: other US adversaries could play in this. Russia and Iran,
Speaker 7: as we've talked about, were also dealt blows by the
Speaker 7: downfall of Asad, and I do wonder the circumstances that
Speaker 7: you are describing do seem if in the worser case
Speaker 7: scenario as ones, if there are unrest that Iran might
Speaker 7: be able to take advantage of, even if it does
Speaker 7: find itself more weak in this moment. So how does
Speaker 7: the US, the new Syrian government whatever it is, and
Speaker 7: others in the region, including Turkey need to behave here
Speaker 7: to make sure that Iran stays down?
Speaker 4: If you will, right, I mean, this was truly a
Speaker 4: humiliating defeat for both Iran and Russia, who have been
Speaker 4: stalwart allies of the USAID regime. This rebel offensive was
Speaker 4: essentially possible because of a regional breakdown in power where
Speaker 4: you saw Iran and its proxies really decimated, and Iran's
Speaker 4: forward defense strategy and tatters, It'd be difficult to see
Speaker 4: how they mount any kind of positive campaign in Syria
Speaker 4: at this time. That said, what we have seen in
Speaker 4: recent days was the Syrian Democratic forces.
Speaker 10: These are the group. This is the group that the US.
Speaker 4: Backs taking control of a really critical border crossing called
Speaker 4: Albu Kamal, which Syria shares with Iraq. This is a
Speaker 4: key part of the conduit of the sort of Schia
Speaker 4: crescent between Tehran and its proxy has Balah on the
Speaker 4: Mediterranean and Syria is really key to that strategy and
Speaker 4: that armed shipment sort of corridor.
Speaker 10: So I mean, if we.
Speaker 4: See the US troops, for example, pull out, as we've
Speaker 4: seen President Elect sort of allude to saying that there's
Speaker 4: no US interests in Syria, we could see the emergence
Speaker 4: of potential spoilers from Iran, but also Isis as well.
Speaker 1: Well. So where should if you were looking forward here
Speaker 1: to make the most strategic decisions, Natasha, where should US
Speaker 1: forces be positioned Iraq or Syria.
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's a great question.
Speaker 4: I mean, I think in an advisory role, remaining in
Speaker 4: Iraq would be pretty critical to US security. But really
Speaker 4: the nine hundred troops that are in Syria are a
Speaker 4: lot of bang for one's buck. Let's say it's a
Speaker 4: very limited presence, but it's kind of a wedge to
Speaker 4: prevent insecurity from rising from ISIS cells to really re
Speaker 4: emerge in a serious way, and again to prevent Iran
Speaker 4: from sending arm shipments and militias back through that corridor.
Speaker 4: So I would think that, you know, first and foremost,
Speaker 4: leaving US troops in place, but on top of that
Speaker 4: to really have a kind of stabilizing presence for the country.
Speaker 4: We've already seen a US broker ceasefire in the north
Speaker 4: between sort of Turkey and Turkish back groups and the Kurds.
Speaker 4: We need to see more of that in the months
Speaker 4: ahead to prevent greater insecure during this really fragile moment.
Speaker 4: And then, as I mentioned with sanctions and the terrorism
Speaker 4: designation on HTS, there really needs to be a checklist
Speaker 4: in terms of behavior, transition to civilian governance, dissolving of
Speaker 4: militia groups for a broader, more unified Syrian military, and
Speaker 4: the US really does have cards to play along with
Speaker 4: its allies in doing that. So I think that there's
Speaker 4: really really concrete steps that I do hope the US plays.
Speaker 7: Here, Natasha. In our final two minutes with you, I
Speaker 7: also want to note that the National Security Advisor Jake
Speaker 7: Sullivan made a trip to Israel where yesterday he suggested
Speaker 7: that he thinks there could be a deal between Israel
Speaker 7: and Hamas and a release of the hostages this month.
Speaker 7: And I wonder the extent to which you think there's
Speaker 7: credibility in that statement, or if this is misplaced optimism, right.
Speaker 4: I mean, we've of course been talking about this since
Speaker 4: this February, that there will be a ceasefire.
Speaker 10: Imminent in any moment.
Speaker 4: I do not know if Prime Minister and Yahoo would
Speaker 4: want to at the end of the day give President
Speaker 4: Biden the win here.
Speaker 10: He might be essentially waiting.
Speaker 4: For President Alec Trump, which he hasn't been very secretive
Speaker 4: about is his preferred candidate, and wait to give President
Speaker 4: elect Trump the win.
Speaker 10: I could see that easily happening.
Speaker 4: If President elect Trump can take this as a win,
Speaker 4: then maybe we will see it in the next month.
Speaker 10: But I have my doubts.
Speaker 1: Natasha, it's great to have you back. You're always welcome
Speaker 1: here in Natasha Hall, Center for Strategic in the International
Speaker 1: Studies Middle East Program, Senior Fellow, a voice of experience
Speaker 1: helping us navigate these stories. It's good to see you, Natasha.
Speaker 1: Come back and see us soon. I'm Joe Matthew alongside
Speaker 1: Kaylee Lions in Washington as we wind things down on
Speaker 1: the early edition. We'll be back at five pm Eastern
Speaker 1: Time with a late edition of Balance of Power, working
Speaker 1: our way into what could be a pretty important weekend.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: All eyes on this football game to figure out I
Speaker 1: guess the congressional agenda. Donald Trump's approached it, any number
Speaker 1: of issues, the transition. Who might be the next Defense secretary?
Speaker 1: That's a heck of a ballgame.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it could be apprentice and that two potential defense secretaries,
Speaker 7: the one who actually has been nominated for it and
Speaker 7: the other who reportedly could be a backup if Hegseth
Speaker 7: can't get through both Hexath and DeSantis. They're in the
Speaker 7: presence of the President and elect. I feel like this
Speaker 7: could get a little dramatic.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be fun to watch. Thanks for listening
Speaker 1: to The Balance of Power Podcast. Make sure to subscribe
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