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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 2: Roun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: Friday edition of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: on the satellite radio and on YouTube. You know the

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Speaker 1: drill search. Bloomberg Business News Live will meet you here

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Speaker 1: in the studio as soon as you log in. With

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Speaker 1: a lot to talk about here, guess it could be

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Speaker 1: a newsy weekend on this Friday, the thirteenth. We hope

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Speaker 1: for a lucky deal here to emerge this weekend. House

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Speaker 1: and Senate leaders they say they're coming close to a

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Speaker 1: stopgap that'll bring us into either February or March. Sarah

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Speaker 1: Chamberlain last evening interesting saying is looking more like February.

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Speaker 1: The question is what we will get for disaster relief funding,

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Speaker 1: and that appears to be the reason why we don't

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Speaker 1: have a deal yet. Could be beginning of next week

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Speaker 1: they'll kick the can and then we'll have a big

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Speaker 1: fight early next year. But I have a lot of things,

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Speaker 1: including this that I want to talk about with Terry Haynes.

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Speaker 1: We're at a very important inflection moment right now. And

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Speaker 1: the latest note from Terry, he's a poet, you know,

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Speaker 1: this is why we like to have him on, refers

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Speaker 1: to the bonfire of the regulatory vanities that's taking place

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Speaker 1: here as part of the transition that we talk about

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Speaker 1: every day. He is the founder of Pangaea Policy. Terry Haynes,

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Speaker 1: Good Friday. It's good to see you. This is lucky, right,

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Speaker 1: Thirteen's lucky for you.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, you know, I'm personally agnostic on it

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Speaker 3: in my life anyway, but you know that one size

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Speaker 3: fits all right hopefully.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, good, Yeah, I will my you know, I

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Speaker 1: feel like it's been a good day so far. There

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Speaker 1: was no traffic. I got out of bed realized it

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Speaker 1: was Friday the thirteenth, and that the government was set

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Speaker 1: to shut down a week from now. Are we going

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Speaker 1: to sleep walk into a sh shut down, Terry? Or

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Speaker 1: they're going to get this done the next couple of days.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think they get this done. You know, as

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Speaker 3: you pointed out at the top, they're pushing around on

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Speaker 3: disaster funding. Likely a couple of other things, but you know,

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Speaker 3: the bottom line is it's in no one's political interest

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Speaker 3: to have a shutdown over Christmas, and so they're very

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Speaker 3: very likely not to do it. So I think at

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Speaker 3: least we won't have to talk about that much longer.

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Speaker 1: Well, there's a neutering that's about to take place, as

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Speaker 1: I read in your note to clients, the immediate bonfire

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Speaker 1: of the regulatory vanities. You say to make regulators neutering

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Speaker 1: on January twentieth, an immediate markets positive economic boost. This

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Speaker 1: is largely why Wall Street has been so excited about

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, because we can, right, we can debate, and

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Speaker 1: they've got new numbers out here from Miya mcguinness's group

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Speaker 1: showing that the tax cuts might actually mean very little

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Speaker 1: economic growth in the end. But the idea of cutting

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Speaker 1: all this red tape and eliminating some agencies, terry, is

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Speaker 1: what has the market in a ladder here, right?

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Speaker 3: Uh yeah, a lot of it, you know. And uh,

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Speaker 3: you know I wrote that, uh recently, and the Wall

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Speaker 3: Street Journal chimed in on it about a day later,

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Speaker 3: very very similarly, if not as poetically. But the uh

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Speaker 3: you know, yeah, they markets get way over their skis

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Speaker 3: on deregulation. I always you know, and and I always

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Speaker 3: cautioned them to to to too have some have some

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Speaker 3: realistic expectations. How about that? Uh, you know, the whole

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Speaker 3: doge thing is is you know, is largely a mirage.

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Speaker 3: Nothing against the people pushing it.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 3: As I've said to you on earlier programs, I think

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Speaker 3: I'm I'm in favor of half of what Musk and

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Speaker 3: Ramaswami want to do. And I don't even know what

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Speaker 3: it is yet. I mean, that's you know, but that's

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Speaker 3: how you know, kind of that's how constipated Washington is.

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Speaker 3: So I'm, uh, you know, my fourth you know, generally speaking,

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Speaker 3: but they don't have any authority to do it. The

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Speaker 3: people and the people that are going to do it,

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Speaker 3: I think in financial services and a variety of other

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Speaker 3: places are you know, if they're focused on efficiencies, but

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Speaker 3: they're they're focused at root on not wanting to have

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Speaker 3: too much overlapping regulation. And you know that's that's a

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Speaker 3: good thing.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting when we talk about, you know, the

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Speaker 1: idea of eliminating red tape and creating growth not lost

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Speaker 1: on me, by the way. Terry. When Donald Trump was

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Speaker 1: asked on the other network yesterday at the New York

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Speaker 1: Stock Exchange whether people should start buying right now. He

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Speaker 1: did not say yes. He said, I'm not going to

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Speaker 1: say that this market might tip lower because we have

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Speaker 1: been witnessing quite a melt up here. But the Committee

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Speaker 1: for a Responsible Federal Budget is out with a new

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Speaker 1: number crunch here, and they find that extending the Trump

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Speaker 1: tax cuts set to expire next year may not boost

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Speaker 1: the economy as much as promised. You already indicated the

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Speaker 1: markets may be over their skis a little bit. What

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Speaker 1: does that mean come the middle of twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: if the market keeps rocking here in a new Trump administration.

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Speaker 3: Well, my advice really is twofold. One is that is

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Speaker 3: that economists and others tend to look at this stuff

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Speaker 3: in a very siloed sort of way. Whereas if you're

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Speaker 3: Trump or the Trump people, or or senior members of

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Speaker 3: Congress for that matter, they're not going to look at

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Speaker 3: it in a siloed sort of way. They're going to

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Speaker 3: look at it as where do tax cuts fit in with,

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Speaker 3: you know, the other pro growth aspects of what we

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Speaker 3: you know, what we have planned, whether it be deregulation,

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Speaker 3: whether the President wants to put some tariffs in, you know,

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Speaker 3: regardless of how that goes, and then you've got a

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Speaker 3: variety of other overlays that are going to make that

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Speaker 3: decision not instantaneous on January the twentieth. The first one is,

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Speaker 3: you know what we do about the debt ceiling, the

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Speaker 3: debt limit that that'll be important because I mean, that'll

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Speaker 3: get done, but it'll be there'll be a lot of brinksmanship,

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Speaker 3: but it'll give you an idea of what the appetite

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Speaker 3: for of the Congress is and what the administration is

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Speaker 3: for additional debt and deficit, So you know that'll be important.

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Speaker 3: Then Trump has to put a budget together, and then

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Speaker 3: most importantly for the tax cuts, what ends up having

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Speaker 3: to happen is a decision that I think really gets

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Speaker 3: made in the Senate about how much deficit they want

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Speaker 3: to incur. The last time, you know, when I was

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Speaker 3: doing this in a prior life, I was working with

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Speaker 3: a pretty prominent economist and we were going to do

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Speaker 3: a note right after the twenty sixteen election what to

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Speaker 3: expect on tax cuts, And what I said to the

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Speaker 3: economist is, Okay, how much more? How much more deficit

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Speaker 3: can we incur if we get the corporate rate down

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Speaker 3: to twenty percent. And he came back and said, well,

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Speaker 3: you know, that's a trillion and a half. Now, that

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Speaker 3: sounds like a lot, but trillion and a half over

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Speaker 3: ten years is you know, is you know back then

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Speaker 3: was thought to be doable, and you know that's where

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Speaker 3: it ended up. I mean, that was my prediction and

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Speaker 3: that's where it ended up. But there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: different overlay this time, whether it be the appetite of

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Speaker 3: the market for this stuff, what the tariffs are going

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Speaker 3: to look like, what the needs of the Defense Department

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Speaker 3: are like, because that's those budgets are going to get

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Speaker 3: raised in response to geopolitics, all these things very different

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Speaker 3: than twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we could see our first trillion dollar defense budget,

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Speaker 1: I suspect in the year ahead if we can actually

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Speaker 1: get to regular order here you talk about the House,

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Speaker 1: the way Congress might get along with this whole Trump

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Speaker 1: approach when it comes to economic issues. We have a

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Speaker 1: new chair of the House Financial Services Committee. It's French Hill, who,

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Speaker 1: of course our viewers and listeners know quite well from

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Speaker 1: a long conversation that the congressman has been having with

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Speaker 1: this network. It's been brought to my attention. I always

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Speaker 1: learned something new about Terry Hayes every time you come on. Terry,

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Speaker 1: you basically invented the Financial Services Committee. And I wonder,

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Speaker 1: with your long view, and it's relatively recent history, what

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Speaker 1: you think French Hill brings to that panel. You've got,

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of a Reagan era Republican here is

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Speaker 1: going to be interfacing with a Trump White House.

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Speaker 3: The really important thing to know about mister Hill, I

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Speaker 3: think is that he's really the first one since my

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Speaker 3: old boss, Congressman Mike Oxley, who really focused on immediate

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Speaker 3: impact to and on markets. You know, what ends up

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Speaker 3: happening in Washington so much as you well know, is

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Speaker 3: that you know, regulators in Congress alike get kind of

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Speaker 3: caught up in the in regulatory capture issues. Everybody didthers

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Speaker 3: around about regulation and whatnot, and few people really start

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Speaker 3: at the start where the beginning should be, which is

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Speaker 3: focusing on the economic impacts. And I think that's really

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Speaker 3: what you get out of That's really fundamentally, I think

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Speaker 3: what you get out of Hill. It's been touted a

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Speaker 3: lot that his private sector experience in a bank helped

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Speaker 3: him get the chairmanship. I'm sure that's true. But you

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Speaker 3: know where I think he's going to excel and really

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Speaker 3: differentiate himself is he's really going to focus on market

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Speaker 3: impacts as well as just the the regulatory overkill. And

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Speaker 3: that's important and that's a big positive. And you know,

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Speaker 3: and kudos to you and others on this network for

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Speaker 3: having the foresight to see that. You know that he

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Speaker 3: should be should be talked with quite a lot, and

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Speaker 3: now you've got a window into his thought process that

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Speaker 3: nobody else really has.

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Speaker 1: Does it tell us realizing he's sensitive to markets just

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Speaker 1: in our final moment here that Steve Scalice doesn't necessarily

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Speaker 1: have the last word on everything in the US House.

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Speaker 3: You know, the Steering Committee is the Steering Committee is

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Speaker 3: very very important, and you have to balance regional regional

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Speaker 3: aspirations and you have to balance the aspirations for the committee.

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Speaker 3: What I saw from what I saw from the Steering

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Speaker 3: Committee in Picking Hill really is they want to return

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Speaker 3: that committee, the Financial Services Committee, to real prominence. And

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Speaker 3: so that's good news for the industry too.

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Speaker 1: Fascinating. Well, we thank Terry Haynes for the House Financial

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Speaker 1: Services Committee. How about that? He also, of course founded

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Speaker 1: Pangaea policy from where he talks to us right now, Terry,

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Speaker 1: Great to see you, Happy Friday, have a great weekend.

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Speaker 1: Another frequent voice here for a good reason. On Bloomberg, you're.

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Speaker 2: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just

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Speaker 2: live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecarplaying n Ron Oro

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business ap. You can also listen live

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Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 2: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 1: You've made it to the threshold of the weekend and

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Speaker 1: some fascinating stories to talk about here is we anticipate

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Speaker 1: the arrival of Donald Trump on January twentieth in Washington.

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Speaker 1: You have got the Army Navy game this weekend that

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Speaker 1: we'll be talking about that a lot. At the beginning

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Speaker 1: of next week. Ron DeSantis is going right. Are we

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Speaker 1: still sure why Speaker Mike Johnson's going to be there too?

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Speaker 1: Is he takes a little bit of advice from the

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Speaker 1: President on the sequencing of border versus tax cuts and

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Speaker 1: the agenda for the new Congress. But I'll tell you

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Speaker 1: what high tech is not waiting around either. The list

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Speaker 1: of names making pilgrimage tomorrow. Lago meeting Donald Trump at

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Speaker 1: events investing in his inaugural is really starting to add up.

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Speaker 1: We learned just yesterday Jeff Bezos will be meeting with

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump next week. I see here now Google CEO

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Speaker 1: Sundar Pichai scheduled for a sit down on Thursday. Of course,

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Speaker 1: you know the big thing at the NYSE yesterday the

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Speaker 1: Person of the Year Time magazine, owned by the CEO

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Speaker 1: of Salesforce, Mark Benioff. You might not have known this,

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Speaker 1: but there's a lot more where this came from. Enter

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Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg, right, donating a million dollars. Sam Altman another

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Speaker 1: million dollars. You kind of have to give I guess

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Speaker 1: a million does This is going to be a heck

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Speaker 1: of an inaugural. So we thought we would have a

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Speaker 1: conversation here with a couple of people right in the

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Speaker 1: middle of this story. One of them you know pretty

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Speaker 1: often from this program, Mike Sheppard, who here in Washington

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Speaker 1: covers the intersection of technology and politics. Were also joined

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Speaker 1: by Max Chafkin, Bloomberg BusinessWeek columnists and gentlemen. It's great

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Speaker 1: to see you both. Thanks for being here on this Friday.

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Speaker 1: Mike I'll start with you on the remarkable turn here.

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Speaker 1: We talk about how many from the center and even

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Speaker 1: from the left are kind of given Donald Trump a chance,

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Speaker 1: saying nice things, maybe propping up some of his cabinet picks,

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Speaker 1: helping them get to hearings. Big Tech is doing its

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Speaker 1: own version of this. Huh, well, it really is.

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Speaker 5: It is a turn about from what we saw back

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Speaker 5: in the first administration, when Tech really kept Trump largely

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Speaker 5: at arm's length. One of the few CEOs who really

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Speaker 5: had that kind of productive working relationship with Trump when

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Speaker 5: we think back, was Tim Cook, and he had a

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Speaker 5: whole different set of stakes at hand. And remember this

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Speaker 5: is when Donald Trump was heating up a trade war

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Speaker 5: with China. There was the risk of US tariffs on

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Speaker 5: Chinese goods and then retaliation by China against American products,

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Speaker 5: and perhaps these days around the world, Apple is one

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Speaker 5: of the most American branded products. So at the time

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Speaker 5: Tim Cook really wanted to make sure that there was

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Speaker 5: some sort of protection for his company. He managed to

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Speaker 5: secure it this time around the CEOs of these other companies,

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Speaker 5: including Amazon dot Com and the founder It's not just

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Speaker 5: Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, but also Andy Jassey

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Speaker 5: has also been making his own outreaches Amazon CEO too,

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Speaker 5: the incoming Trump team and likewise, you know, we saw

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Speaker 5: Mark Zuckerberg having dinner last month with Trump at Mar

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Speaker 5: A Lago. It is not only right a passage, but

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Speaker 5: a necessary one. These companies are all facing some degree

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Speaker 5: of antitrust scrutiny. There is regulatory overhang that they're worried about,

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Speaker 5: and they're hoping that Trump, who's coming to office with

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Speaker 5: this promise of relief for corporate America, that he might

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Speaker 5: bring it for them too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Max Chafkin in New York. These are all big

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Speaker 1: personalities with big pocketbooks. We're talking about are they being

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Speaker 1: motivated by fear or opportunity or both?

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Speaker 6: I think it's both. And you know, you look back,

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Speaker 6: remember back to twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, You did see

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Speaker 6: efforts by folks like Bezos and even Zuckerberg to court Trump.

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Speaker 6: Back then, they just were not as loud about it,

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Speaker 6: and we didn't see these big monetary donations, and you know,

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Speaker 6: it just wasn't as prominent or out in the open

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Speaker 6: or maybe even you know, brazen if you're taking the

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Speaker 6: point of view of a critic that said, you know,

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Speaker 6: the as Mike says, you have the potential of FTC

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Speaker 6: investigations for both Amazon and Facebook, and in the case

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Speaker 6: of Sam Altman, you have this looming threat of AI regulation.

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Speaker 6: And not only that, but Elon Musk is a who's

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Speaker 6: a competitor of Sam Altman, and AI is a key

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Speaker 6: advisor to the president elect.

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Speaker 1: What do you make of the money here, Mike, you

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Speaker 1: covered politics before you entered the technology space for some time.

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Speaker 1: Altman a million, Zuckerberg a million, Bezos a million. Tell

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Speaker 1: our audience where this money's going.

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Speaker 5: Well, this is not unusual to see big companies making

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Speaker 5: donations and contributions to the inaugural efforts, the inaugural committees.

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Speaker 5: This is something we've seen over the years.

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Speaker 1: It sounds weird to people, though they're but this isn't

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Speaker 1: a campaign. They're donating. So this is money for parties.

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Speaker 5: It is to the event. It's for the parties. It's

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Speaker 5: to help the extravaganza that we're going to see in

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Speaker 5: just a matter of weeks if you think about it less,

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Speaker 5: in about a month from now, we're going to be

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Speaker 5: really in the thick of it, and that helps to

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Speaker 5: defray some of the costs and maybe add a little

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Speaker 5: bit of the pomp and circumstance too. And what's interesting

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Speaker 5: on the tech side is just how much, as Max

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Speaker 5: was saying, how open they are about it, and how

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Speaker 5: much they have just hopped aboard this bamwagon of corporate

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Speaker 5: support for an otherwise political event that other industries have

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Speaker 5: more or less been hipped to. But tech has always

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Speaker 5: been a little bit more arm's length about it. Not

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Speaker 5: so much anymore.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the potential. I don't know if I should

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Speaker 1: call them conflicts of interest here, Max and Elon Musk

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Speaker 1: has his own version actually running a government contractor in

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Speaker 1: SpaceX and some of his business dealings with the federal government.

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Speaker 1: But what you know, a lot of people see stories

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Speaker 1: like this and leg I thought we were going to

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Speaker 1: drain the swamp. You're given a million dollars for good

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Speaker 1: treatment once the president elect takes office, aren't you. I

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Speaker 1: mean this tension.

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Speaker 6: We saw this tension during the last Trump presidency, and

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Speaker 6: it's going to be there this time. You know, I

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Speaker 6: think from the point of view of Trump and his supporters,

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Speaker 6: the swamp is government workers, right, It's not in government agencies.

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Speaker 6: It's not necessarily billionaires. Who are you know, trying to

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Speaker 6: donate money in the hopes of influencing policy. That said,

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Speaker 6: of course the left, I mean, they are already talking

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Speaker 6: about this. This is going to be a huge issue.

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Speaker 6: And just to underline something that sort of came up earlier,

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Speaker 6: it's not just that Mark Zuckerberg is threatened with an

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Speaker 6: FTC inquiry. Trump was on the campaign trail saying he

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Speaker 6: was going to throw Mark Zuckerberg in jail. And and

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Speaker 6: you know, obviously that that sounds like rhetoric, right, especially

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Speaker 6: coming from someone like Trump, but it really does just

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Speaker 6: show that these guys feel, you know, under threat, under

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Speaker 6: serious threat to their businesses. And and then there's also

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Speaker 6: the sense that Trump is more flexible, maybe more flexible

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Speaker 6: than than Biden or Harris would have been if she

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Speaker 6: had been elected, in terms of being willing to sort

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Speaker 6: of listen to the business world and and and make

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Speaker 6: policy that they're going to be happy about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So, well, gosh, if this is stay out of

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Speaker 1: jail money for Mark Zuckerberg, is it also take care

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Speaker 1: of TikTok?

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Speaker 5: Well, Mark Zuckerberg, take care of TikTok and take care

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Speaker 5: of other issues too.

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Speaker 1: Where Trump on TikTok, Now we differ from.

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Speaker 5: Don't we don't really know what his opinion is as

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Speaker 5: of like five minutes ago. We do know from the

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Speaker 5: campaign that he had actually reversed his position and says

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Speaker 5: he no longer thinks that a ban of the of

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Speaker 5: the app is justified.

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Speaker 1: Remember his worry was that would help Zuckerberg. Now they're hanging.

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Speaker 5: Out, So now how does that how does that change?

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Speaker 5: And it's a and it will be fascinating to see

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Speaker 5: once we get a final outcome and court on TikTok,

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Speaker 5: where he falls and whether you know, the whole Zuckerberg

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Speaker 5: relationship question, you know, pivots him in a different direction.

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Speaker 5: I wanted to touch on one point that Max was making earlier,

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Speaker 5: and that is just about how they feel the need

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Speaker 5: to perhaps avoid any possible retribution by Trump or his

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Speaker 5: you know, the people he's designating for some of these

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Speaker 5: big agencies, including the FBI. What's interesting also is how

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Speaker 5: accessible or much more accessible Trump can be and can

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Speaker 5: make himself to people empower in the business world. And

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Speaker 5: so if you're a billionaire and you drop your car

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Speaker 5: to the front door of mar A Lago, it is

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Speaker 5: not very long before they let you in. And he

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Speaker 5: is really eager to make those relations relationships work and

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Speaker 5: flourish it, you know, for his favor, but he also

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Speaker 5: wants to hear what other business people are doing, and

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Speaker 5: you know, as you said on TikTok, perhaps try to

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Speaker 5: help them out if they can.

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Speaker 1: What do you make of the evolution on TikTok, Max,

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Speaker 1: What will the Trump administration mean for this platform?

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, Trump sort of came sort of switched

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Speaker 6: his position on TikTok roughly around the same time that

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Speaker 6: he got a big donation from jeff Yass who is

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Speaker 6: the runs Susquehanna Capital, which has an investment in TikTok.

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Speaker 6: That you know, it felt like he was at that

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Speaker 6: time really trying to adopt kind of business friendly positions.

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Speaker 6: Of course, since then there are all these other donors,

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Speaker 6: maybe donors who don't care as much about whether TikTok

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Speaker 6: is banned or not, or whether it gets sold to

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Speaker 6: another company. I do think that Zuckerberg part of his

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Speaker 6: motivation here. Part of it is the sec sorry, is

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Speaker 6: the FTC. Part of it is the point that Mike

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Speaker 6: is making about just sort of general accessibility, And part

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Speaker 6: of it, yeah, is TikTok's That's the big competitor Facebook,

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Speaker 6: and if it is harmed in some way or hampered

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Speaker 6: or banned or what have you, that is going to

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Speaker 6: be good news for Zuckerberg. The other thing, the other

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Speaker 6: point I'll make is, at the same time this is happening,

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Speaker 6: Trump has appointed a head of Anti Trust at the DOJ,

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Speaker 6: Gail Salter, who's expected to be to kind of continue

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Speaker 6: these investigations. These cases that the dj has brought against

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Speaker 6: Google and Apple. Now those are both Facebook competitors. So

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Speaker 6: right now, like Zuckerberg is getting a lot of what

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Speaker 6: he would have wanted from this presidency, and so it

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Speaker 6: sort of makes sense that he's making a donation.

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Speaker 1: Can you imagine in our last minute here, and I

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Speaker 1: think you can, in the early stages of the Trump administration,

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Speaker 1: a big event in the auditorium in the Executive Office

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Speaker 1: building across the driveway from the White House, with all

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Speaker 1: of these characters around a round table with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 5: Very easily it's a kind of event he liked to

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Speaker 5: convene during his first term, and I would easily see

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Speaker 5: that taking place.

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Speaker 1: They all want to be on good terms with each other,

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Speaker 1: it sounds.

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Speaker 5: Like it does. Though they do compete with each other.

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Speaker 5: There is some interest in you know, they want to

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Speaker 5: have a common understand when it comes to policy, and

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Speaker 5: especially when it comes to politics.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, right, boy, that's going to be something. I can

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Speaker 1: just imagine the optics now. Max, it's great to have

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Speaker 1: you in New York. Don't be a stranger. It's good

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Speaker 1: to have you with us here. Bloomberg Business Week columnist

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Speaker 1: Max Chafkin from world headquarters in New York. And of

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Speaker 1: course shep with me here in Washington, Mike Shepard covering

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Speaker 1: the intersection of politics and technology. His actual title, By

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Speaker 1: the way, I always say this Senior Editor, Technology and

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Speaker 1: Strategic Industries. That sounds more important. Mike. Thank you.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and round

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Speaker 2: Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: Just one week to go until the government runs out

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Speaker 1: of money. The funding deadline the twentieth of December, and

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Speaker 1: we're counting down. Ye're still without a plan. I'm Joe

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Speaker 1: Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines and Washington. Thanks for being with

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Speaker 1: us on the Friday edition of Balance of Power Friday

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Speaker 1: the thirteenth, which means we've got a week until we

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Speaker 1: run out of cash, right, So the question is when

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Speaker 1: we get a plan. There's talk it emerges this weekend.

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Speaker 1: It might even come out of the Army Navy gate

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Speaker 1: if things happen properly legislating from the suite, Mike Johnson

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Speaker 1: will be there. Yeah, supposedly in the presidential suite. It's

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Speaker 1: about kicking the can, right, And you know, Sarah Chamberlain

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Speaker 1: was interesting from the Republican Main Street Partnership on Balance

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Speaker 1: of Power last evening, saying this might be shorter than

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Speaker 1: some are suggesting. We'll be lucky maybe to get into

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Speaker 1: February before there's another funding battle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: Well, we have to consider, first of all, that by

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Speaker 7: the time we get to late February or early March,

434
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 7: which is what we're talking about here, the fiscal year

435
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 7: that these appropriations we're supposed to address will be roughly

436
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 7: halfway over. So even if we wrap this funding battle

437
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 7: pretty soon, the next one is going to start. Keeping

438
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 7: in mind, it's not just about deciding on a budget

439
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 7: for this fiscal year and appropriating it to all of

440
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 7: the different agencies and departments, it's also about raising the

441
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 7: debt ceiling, trying to get a few one maybe two

442
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:07,639
Speaker 7: reconciliation packages passed with border energy and tax legislation. This

443
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:09,920
Speaker 7: is going to be a really heavy to do list

444
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 7: right at the beginning of the one hundred and nineteenth Congress.

445
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 7: Keeping in mind that the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson,

446
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 7: is going to be working with a majority of what one.

447
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 1: Be one by the time that happens. And so you're

448
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 1: hearing people suggest there's no shutdown in the works in

449
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: the next week, but in the first quarter of next

450
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: year is when we could really be running into some trouble.

451
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 7: Yeah, So let's get into this now with Rick Davis

452
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 7: and Jeanie Shanzeno, our signature political panel. Rick, of course,

453
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 7: republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, Genie a

454
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 7: democratic strategist and Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for

455
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 7: the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Rick, we talk

456
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 7: all the time, multiple times a year about doing this

457
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 7: song and dance all over again. We know the can

458
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 7: is just going to get kicked down the road. They

459
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 7: are choosing though, to kick it down the road to march. Well,

460
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 7: it will be maybe two months after Donald Trump takes

461
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 7: office with a lot he wants to accomplish in those

462
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 7: first one hundred days. So how problematic is this particular

463
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 7: kicking of the can going to be ultimately for the

464
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 7: Republican majorities in Congress and the President?

465
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 8: You know, I don't think it's going to be that

466
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 8: big an issue on March fourteenth or whenever the new

467
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 8: cr will expire, primarily because it's really in your rear

468
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 8: view mirror at that point, as you pointed out, Kaylee,

469
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 8: six months down the road, in a fiscal year that

470
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 8: hadn't had a budget proved yet. So it is a

471
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 8: little silly. But the reality is that most of the

472
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 8: effort in Congress by then will be focused on the

473
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 8: next funding year's budget, and all the appropriations activity, all

474
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 8: the author is authorizing will be for the twenty twenty

475
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 8: sixth budget. And so I do know that we've got

476
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 8: more intensity in the Senate lined up. We've been talking

477
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 8: all week about the five day work week in the

478
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,439
Speaker 8: United States Senate to really get things moving there, and

479
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 8: I think that'll be matched to some degree by House tempo.

480
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 8: And we've all been talking about the close margins of

481
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 8: victory in the House and the Senate with Republicans in charge,

482
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 8: and how much complicated, how much more complicated that'll make

483
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 8: getting things passed. So that being said, yeah, I think

484
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 8: as soon as they sign this CR before they get

485
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 8: out before Christmas, that puts it in the review, Mayor

486
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 8: that buys you as you point out three months and

487
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 8: all of a sudden, you're focused on an entirely different

488
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 8: set of numbers, new top lines, And I think it

489
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 8: makes the reconciliation on twenty twenty four to twenty five

490
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 8: really not that much more difficult, Genie.

491
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 1: Some of the delay in crafting a short term solution

492
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: here has been the request for disaster aid following the

493
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 1: hurricanes that blew through the Southeast. Reporting now suggests tens

494
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: of billions of dollars in disaster aid will be included.

495
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: The White House and asked for almost one hundred billion.

496
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: Knowing these are a lot of red states we're talking

497
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: about here, when you're looking at North Carolina, Tennessee, Florida,

498
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 1: and so forth, why the fight over the money?

499
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think it's indicative of the fact

500
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 9: that you do have a split in the House where

501
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 9: you have obviously people who certainly most representatives, if not all,

502
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 9: want to fund these emergencies. But there is an awful

503
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 9: lot of concern about the spending levels and the debt

504
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 9: and deficit. And since it's a Friday, I got to

505
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 9: disagree with Rick there. This is a disaster for Republicans.

506
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 9: There is no way that you move this to March

507
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,960
Speaker 9: or February. If it goes to February and then it's

508
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 9: clean sailing from there, Let's not forget. There is zero

509
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 9: room for the House to maneuver on this, and so

510
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 9: they don't have the numbers. There's a possibility that within

511
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 9: the first hundred days, when you have Donald Trump and

512
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 9: Republicans rightly anxious to move forward a really really energetic

513
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 9: and a full agenda, that you have more Democrats on

514
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 9: that House floor than you have Republicans on a given day.

515
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 9: And so the idea that this is going to be

516
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 9: smoother sailing when we go forward is not the case.

517
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 9: They will have to fight this out next year. And

518
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 9: the problem for Donald Trump, and I suspect he may

519
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 9: give Mike Johnson an earful on this this weekend, who knows,

520
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 9: is the fact that he has an agenda that he

521
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 9: has promised to the American public, and he is intent

522
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 9: on living out that agenda, and you can bet if

523
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 9: it doesn't get through, he's going to point the finger

524
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 9: at Republicans in leadership for not pushing it through, because

525
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 9: Democrats cannot be blamed because Republicans by January own Washington.

526
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 7: D c Well to that exact point, Genie, we have

527
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 7: seen Democrats in this one hundred and eighteenth Congress be

528
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 7: the votes in the House to actually get a lot

529
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 7: of things over the finish line. But they have been

530
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 7: doing so knowing that the Senate and the White House

531
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,959
Speaker 7: were controlled by Democrats. That's not going to be the

532
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 7: case now. So I do under if you think the

533
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 7: Democrats are really going to play ball here at all,

534
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 7: at least in the early days of the Trump administration,

535
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 7: will there's still some degree of difference, but distance rather

536
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 7: between what's taking place in the January to March period

537
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 7: in the midterms in November of twenty twenty six.

538
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think they absolutely will play ball. But playing

539
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 9: ball means they will kick the ball and they will

540
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 9: expect it to be kicked back. And so the question

541
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 9: is what are they going to get from Nike Johnson, Kayley,

542
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 9: I had to give you a sports you know, sports

543
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 9: reference on a Friday.

544
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 7: But once you appreciated Army Navy tomorrow go Navy.

545
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 10: That's right.

546
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 9: What are they going to get in return for their support?

547
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 9: They are going to expect something. And just listening to

548
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 9: Donald Trump yesterday on the stock exchange, corporate tax cuts

549
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 9: down to fifteen percent, those are huge, huge numbers for corporations,

550
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,719
Speaker 9: the ten largest in the country. How are they going

551
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 9: to make that work? Where are these cuts going to

552
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 9: come from? And spending Democrats are in a position to say,

553
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 9: you can't cut things that we hold important, and that

554
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 9: means Mike Johnson, if he wants their support, he's going

555
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 9: to have to deal with them. This is a really

556
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 9: tough position for Mike Johnson, who I think has the

557
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 9: toughest job in DC coming in January. And we thought

558
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 9: the one hundred and eighteenth was tough, yes we did.

559
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 1: But the interesting development there is that Mike Johnson appears

560
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: to be here to stay. Rick Davis. That's changed a

561
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: lot in the last six months or so, when obviously

562
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: there was a little bit more concern about the veracity

563
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: of the speaker following Mike Johnson's short tenure here, but

564
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: he's really turned himself into a figure in the House

565
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 1: in terms of a fundraiser and an organizer. Will that

566
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: be challenged by having a majority of one.

567
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 8: Not really, because the one is actually Donald Trump. That

568
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 8: is the majority that he has to abide by. The

569
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 8: reality is he was the most powerful man in Washington

570
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 8: last year, aside from the President the United States. He

571
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 8: was the leading Republican voice in the nation. He was

572
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 8: the Speaker. It was the Speaker of the House, and

573
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 8: nobody else had that kind of power. Now we are

574
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 8: a hierarchical party. Republicans salute when the president is a Republican,

575
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 8: and that's what's going to happen in the House of Representatives.

576
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 8: You can't bake the cake the same ingredients that you

577
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 8: had last year. This year, it's going to be different.

578
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 8: When Donald Trump says I want this bill pass, you're

579
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 8: going to have almost complete fealty from Republicans in the

580
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 8: House and Senate to do that, at least in the

581
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 8: first year or two. And so I really don't think

582
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 8: that you can gloom and doom it the way it

583
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 8: was for two years under the Biden administration. Because you know,

584
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 8: Mike Johnson, a very inexperienced legislator, thrust into the speakership

585
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 8: without any high cover. You know, he's gonna have plenty

586
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 8: of high cover. Now he's going to salute whenever Donald

587
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 8: Trump says this is the bill I want pass, and

588
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 8: so will his coalition.

589
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 7: So that's the current speaker. I'd like to ask you,

590
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 7: as well, Jeannie, about a former speaker Speaker America, Nancy Pelosi.

591
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 7: We learned today, while on a congressional delegation a trip

592
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 7: to Europe, was hospitalized in Luxembourg after she sustained what

593
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 7: was just described as an injury during an official engagement.

594
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,479
Speaker 7: We understand she's still working. We don't have further detail

595
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 7: on what exactly the injury is or the severity of it.

596
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 7: But keeping in mind here, the Congresswoman and Speaker America

597
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 7: is eighty four years old, and this is just days

598
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 7: after the eighty two year old outgoing Senate Minority Leader

599
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 7: Mitch McConnell fell and also sustained injuries. What spotlight does

600
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 7: this put on not only just the age of some

601
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 7: of the most senior leaders in Washington, but whether or

602
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 7: not they should still be in these positions at that age.

603
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, you know, we wish and Nancy Pelosi well,

604
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 9: like you said, we understand she's still working from the

605
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,719
Speaker 9: hospital where she's being checked out, and we hope she's okay.

606
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 9: But I think we are seeing, just during this transition

607
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 9: period for the administration, we are seeing a transition in Congress.

608
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 9: To your point, we have seen a number of more

609
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 9: senior both in age and in terms of their length

610
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 9: of time in Congress on the Democratic side in particular,

611
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 9: have stepped aside for their younger colleagues to take the

612
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 9: reigns of power. And I think that's critically important because

613
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 9: part of being a leader and part of being a

614
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 9: party is that you make sure and both parties have this,

615
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 9: you make sure that your bench of incoming people and

616
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 9: leaders are strong and they can take the reins. Otherwise,

617
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 9: you are the risk. If you have the power and

618
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 9: something God forbid happens to you, you are the risk

619
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 9: to the entire party. And so we've seen the Democrats

620
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 9: in particular the last few weeks do that. Interestingly, Pelosi

621
00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 9: seems to have been fighting against Alexandria Ocasio Cortes for

622
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 9: her ascension to the Oversight Committee. That said, we've seen

623
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 9: a number of these transitions, and I think I think

624
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 9: we're going to see more.

625
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: Of course, it's hockeym Jeffery's leading the Democratic Conference in

626
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: the House now, and Rick, he's going to be looking

627
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 1: across the valley to the midterms for the next two years.

628
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:14,880
Speaker 1: How does he best position himself to win.

629
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 8: Best position loyal opposition, raise enormous amounts of money. He'll

630
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 8: be up against a fundraising juggernaut with the Republicans in

631
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 8: the next two years. He's going to have to keep

632
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,719
Speaker 8: his eye on that, which means time away from the Chamber.

633
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 8: But yeah, I mean, he's probably going to have the

634
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 8: typical historical cycle on his side, so you know it

635
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 8: should bode well for him. But he's got to be

636
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 8: organized enough to do it. And right now you really

637
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 8: have to wonder whether the Democrats can rally around his

638
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 8: leadership in the party to help facilitate that, because it's

639
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 8: pretty segmented and bifurcated right now.

640
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 7: Quickly, Rick, the Army Navy game of course tomorrow. We

641
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 7: understand there is quite a list of attendees. He was

642
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 7: the most writing on their visits with Donald Trump. With

643
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 7: the football game as the background. Here, Ron DeSantis, Mike Johnson,

644
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 7: the speaker we've been talking about, or maybe Pete Hegseth

645
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 7: if he decides to show.

646
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 8: Yeah, there's a big debate going on in Congress about

647
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 8: how to facilitate the first year of Donald Trump's legislative agenda.

648
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 8: John Thune is saying the two step process split up

649
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 8: things and pass them in parts and house ways and

650
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 8: means Chairman is saying, I want one big package up

651
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 8: or down vote. That could be the most important decision.

652
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 8: It comes out at halftime.

653
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 7: All right, Well, we'll be monitoring true social and I

654
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 7: guess our television screens. Yeah, this is going to be

655
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 7: like when Taylor Swift goes to exactly.

656
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: They'll have a camera on the box the whole time.

657
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 7: Yeah, all right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzino our signature

658
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 7: political panel. Thank you so much. I feel like I

659
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 7: should go to Maryland tomorrow watch the game. I'm a

660
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 7: Navy fan, you know, of.

661
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: Course, But twelve hundred dollars will get you in, I

662
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 1: think at this point.

663
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 7: Right, Yeah, it's definitely a not cheap, but should be excited.

664
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: Looks better on TV, especially when you're in the stadium.

665
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: We're talking about beautiful landover Maryland. We better get out

666
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: of here. Natasha Hall is on the way in next

667
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,320
Speaker 1: on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.

668
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

669
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

670
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 2: roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

671
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

672
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

673
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 1: As we keep our eyes on what's happening in the

674
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 1: Middle East, where our Secretary of State is traveling right now.

675
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 7: Yeah, Anthony Blinken is abroad, as is Jake Sullivan, the

676
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,720
Speaker 7: National Security Advisor. They're visiting this region. It was Blinkin

677
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,320
Speaker 7: today who was in both Jordan and then Turkey talking

678
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 7: about not just the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas,

679
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,720
Speaker 7: but also of course Syria, as we are just barely

680
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,800
Speaker 7: a week out from the ousting of Syrian dictator Boscher

681
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 7: Ala Sad, and that is something he was talking about

682
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 7: with Airdowan and Turkey specifically because Turkey will have a

683
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,399
Speaker 7: role to play, presumably in what happens in Syria next.

684
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 7: So we want to get into all of this and

685
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 7: turn to Natasha Hall, who joins us from the Center

686
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,840
Speaker 7: for Strategic and International Studies, where she is a Senior

687
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 7: Fellow at the Middle East Program. Welcome back to Bloomberg

688
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 7: TV and Radio, Natasha. If we could focus on Syria first,

689
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 7: As I said, it's been really only a matter of

690
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 7: days since Asad fled to Russia. There's obviously efforts around

691
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 7: a transitional government in place. How do you assess how

692
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 7: it's gone so far since the rebels successfully got a sought.

693
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:35,760
Speaker 4: Out thank you for having me in this historic occasion,

694
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 4: I would say, I mean, it's really been momentous to

695
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 4: see a regime that has held on to power for

696
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 4: so long, over half a century, and then throughout a

697
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 4: thirteen year brutal civil war to really fall within the

698
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 4: course of less than two weeks. So we're not so

699
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 4: far out from it from the fall of us said

700
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 4: and his refuge in Moscow, but certainly there's a lot

701
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 4: of security in the region right now. A lot of

702
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 4: people are nervous about what this might portend for the future,

703
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 4: but Syrians are jubilant. They feel like today is just

704
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 4: a day for the future that they never thought would

705
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 4: be possible, frankly, and that it could potentially turn a

706
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 4: positive leaf for a country that has been through through

707
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 4: so much devastation. That said, the group that led the

708
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 4: charge is Hayata Riersham, which is a designated terrorist organization.

709
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 4: So many Syrians are also wary as well, but aware

710
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 4: of all of the hard work that needs to happen

711
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 4: to get to a better place that they had dreamed

712
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 4: of for so long.

713
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: So, Natasha, how long will it take and what will

714
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 1: be the signs that you're looking for to see a

715
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 1: government that the United States can in fact have a

716
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: relationship with.

717
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 4: I mean, that's that's a great question, and I think

718
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 4: the next few weeks and months are really critical for

719
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,840
Speaker 4: many reasons. Within the tree itself, we want to see

720
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 4: more positive signs from HTS. They have given reassurances to

721
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 4: religious minorities, for example. They've kept government employees and their

722
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 4: posts for the most part, so it's been relatively bloodless,

723
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 4: which is great to see for a country that has

724
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,439
Speaker 4: suffered so much. But what we really need to see

725
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 4: in a country like Syria that has been just economically

726
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 4: devastated ninety percent of the population is under the poverty line,

727
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 4: is we really need to see a rise in basic services,

728
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 4: a rise in basic salaries. Your average government employee gets

729
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 4: paid twenty five dollars a month, and we know with

730
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 4: desperation breeds discontent, and discontent can lead to potential greater insecurity,

731
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 4: in fighting and terrorism. So I think that the United

732
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 4: States has a really positive role to play with the

733
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 4: designation it has on HTS and its sanctions to be

734
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:58,760
Speaker 4: able to steer Syria towards a better future and hopefully

735
00:38:58,840 --> 00:38:59,880
Speaker 4: a more hopeful one.

736
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 7: It also raises the question, Natasha, of the role that

737
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 7: other US adversaries could play in this. Russia and Iran,

738
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 7: as we've talked about, were also dealt blows by the

739
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 7: downfall of Asad, and I do wonder the circumstances that

740
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 7: you are describing do seem if in the worser case

741
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 7: scenario as ones, if there are unrest that Iran might

742
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 7: be able to take advantage of, even if it does

743
00:39:22,440 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 7: find itself more weak in this moment. So how does

744
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 7: the US, the new Syrian government whatever it is, and

745
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 7: others in the region, including Turkey need to behave here

746
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 7: to make sure that Iran stays down?

747
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:38,840
Speaker 4: If you will, right, I mean, this was truly a

748
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 4: humiliating defeat for both Iran and Russia, who have been

749
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 4: stalwart allies of the USAID regime. This rebel offensive was

750
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 4: essentially possible because of a regional breakdown in power where

751
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 4: you saw Iran and its proxies really decimated, and Iran's

752
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 4: forward defense strategy and tatters, It'd be difficult to see

753
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 4: how they mount any kind of positive campaign in Syria

754
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 4: at this time. That said, what we have seen in

755
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 4: recent days was the Syrian Democratic forces.

756
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 10: These are the group. This is the group that the US.

757
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:15,479
Speaker 4: Backs taking control of a really critical border crossing called

758
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 4: Albu Kamal, which Syria shares with Iraq. This is a

759
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 4: key part of the conduit of the sort of Schia

760
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 4: crescent between Tehran and its proxy has Balah on the

761
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 4: Mediterranean and Syria is really key to that strategy and

762
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 4: that armed shipment sort of corridor.

763
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 10: So I mean, if we.

764
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 4: See the US troops, for example, pull out, as we've

765
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 4: seen President Elect sort of allude to saying that there's

766
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 4: no US interests in Syria, we could see the emergence

767
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 4: of potential spoilers from Iran, but also Isis as well.

768
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 1: Well. So where should if you were looking forward here

769
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:01,839
Speaker 1: to make the most strategic decisions, Natasha, where should US

770
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 1: forces be positioned Iraq or Syria.

771
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's a great question.

772
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 4: I mean, I think in an advisory role, remaining in

773
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 4: Iraq would be pretty critical to US security. But really

774
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 4: the nine hundred troops that are in Syria are a

775
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 4: lot of bang for one's buck. Let's say it's a

776
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 4: very limited presence, but it's kind of a wedge to

777
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 4: prevent insecurity from rising from ISIS cells to really re

778
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 4: emerge in a serious way, and again to prevent Iran

779
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 4: from sending arm shipments and militias back through that corridor.

780
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:42,280
Speaker 4: So I would think that, you know, first and foremost,

781
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 4: leaving US troops in place, but on top of that

782
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 4: to really have a kind of stabilizing presence for the country.

783
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 4: We've already seen a US broker ceasefire in the north

784
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 4: between sort of Turkey and Turkish back groups and the Kurds.

785
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 4: We need to see more of that in the months

786
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 4: ahead to prevent greater insecure during this really fragile moment.

787
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 4: And then, as I mentioned with sanctions and the terrorism

788
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 4: designation on HTS, there really needs to be a checklist

789
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 4: in terms of behavior, transition to civilian governance, dissolving of

790
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 4: militia groups for a broader, more unified Syrian military, and

791
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 4: the US really does have cards to play along with

792
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 4: its allies in doing that. So I think that there's

793
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 4: really really concrete steps that I do hope the US plays.

794
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 7: Here, Natasha. In our final two minutes with you, I

795
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 7: also want to note that the National Security Advisor Jake

796
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 7: Sullivan made a trip to Israel where yesterday he suggested

797
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 7: that he thinks there could be a deal between Israel

798
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,960
Speaker 7: and Hamas and a release of the hostages this month.

799
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:46,439
Speaker 7: And I wonder the extent to which you think there's

800
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 7: credibility in that statement, or if this is misplaced optimism, right.

801
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 4: I mean, we've of course been talking about this since

802
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 4: this February, that there will be a ceasefire.

803
00:42:58,239 --> 00:42:59,400
Speaker 10: Imminent in any moment.

804
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,240
Speaker 4: I do not know if Prime Minister and Yahoo would

805
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 4: want to at the end of the day give President

806
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 4: Biden the win here.

807
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 10: He might be essentially waiting.

808
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 4: For President Alec Trump, which he hasn't been very secretive

809
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 4: about is his preferred candidate, and wait to give President

810
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 4: elect Trump the win.

811
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 10: I could see that easily happening.

812
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 4: If President elect Trump can take this as a win,

813
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:26,439
Speaker 4: then maybe we will see it in the next month.

814
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 10: But I have my doubts.

815
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: Natasha, it's great to have you back. You're always welcome

816
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 1: here in Natasha Hall, Center for Strategic in the International

817
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 1: Studies Middle East Program, Senior Fellow, a voice of experience

818
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 1: helping us navigate these stories. It's good to see you, Natasha.

819
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: Come back and see us soon. I'm Joe Matthew alongside

820
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 1: Kaylee Lions in Washington as we wind things down on

821
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 1: the early edition. We'll be back at five pm Eastern

822
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: Time with a late edition of Balance of Power, working

823
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 1: our way into what could be a pretty important weekend.

824
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 2: Here.

825
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: All eyes on this football game to figure out I

826
00:43:57,560 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 1: guess the congressional agenda. Donald Trump's approached it, any number

827
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,759
Speaker 1: of issues, the transition. Who might be the next Defense secretary?

828
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:04,840
Speaker 1: That's a heck of a ballgame.

829
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 7: Yeah, it could be apprentice and that two potential defense secretaries,

830
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 7: the one who actually has been nominated for it and

831
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 7: the other who reportedly could be a backup if Hegseth

832
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 7: can't get through both Hexath and DeSantis. They're in the

833
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 7: presence of the President and elect. I feel like this

834
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:19,280
Speaker 7: could get a little dramatic.

835
00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna be fun to watch. Thanks for listening

836
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 1: to The Balance of Power Podcast. Make sure to subscribe

837
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 1: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you

838
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, and you can find us live every

839
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:38,439
Speaker 1: weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot

840
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:38,880
Speaker 1: com